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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Yan Bai; José-Víctor Ríos-Rull; Kjetil Storesletten |
| Abstract: | We provide a macroeconomic theory where demand for goods has a productive role. A search friction prevents perfect matching between producers and potential customers. Larger demand induces more search, which in turn increases GDP and measured TFP. We embed the product-market friction in a standard neoclassical model and estimate it using Bayesian techniques. Business cycles are driven by preference shocks, true technology shocks, and investment-specific shocks. Preference shocks have qualitatively similar effects as true productivity shocks. These shocks account for a large share of the fluctuations in consumption, GDP, and measured TFP and can be identified using shopping time data. |
| JEL: | E21 E22 E30 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32169&r=mac |
| By: | Richard K. Crump; Stefano Eusepi; Aysegul Sahin |
| Abstract: | In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. economy experienced a swift recovery accompanied by a sharp rise in inflation. Inflation has been gradually declining since 2022 without a notable slowdown in the labor market. Nonetheless, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target and the path of the so-called final mile remains uncertain, as emphasized by Chair Powell during his press conference in January. In this post, we examine the unemployment-inflation trade-off over the past few years through the lens of a New Keynesian Phillips curve, based on our recent paper. We also provide model-based forecasts for 2024 and 2025 under various labor market scenarios. |
| Keywords: | Phillips curve; inflation; unemployment; natural rate of unemployment; expectations |
| JEL: | D84 E24 E31 E32 J11 |
| Date: | 2024–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:97903&r=mac |
| By: | Orphanides, Athanasios |
| Abstract: | Despite a number of helpful changes, including the adoption of an inflation target, the Fed's monetary policy strategy proved insufficiently resilient in recent years. While the Fed eased policy appropriately during the pandemic, it fell behind the curve during the post-pandemic recovery. During 2021, the Fed kept easing policy while the inflation outlook was deteriorating and the economy was growing considerably faster than the economy's natural growth rate-the sum of the Fed's 2% inflation goal and the growth rate of potential output. The resilience of the Fed's monetary policy strategy could be enhanced, and such errors be avoided with guidance from a simple natural growth targeting rule that prescribes that the federal funds rate during each quarter be raised (cut) when projected nominal income growth exceeds (falls short) of the economy's natural growth rate. An illustration with real-time data and forecasts since the early 1990s shows that Fed policy has not persistently deviated from this simple rule with the notable exception of the period coinciding with the Fed's post-pandemic policy error. |
| Keywords: | Federal Reserve, monetary policy strategy, discretion, simple rules, real-time data |
| JEL: | E32 E52 E58 E61 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:imfswp:284378&r=mac |
| By: | Pablo A. Cuba-Borda; Sanjay R. Singh |
| Abstract: | We develop a theoretical framework that rationalizes two hypotheses of long-lasting low interest rate episodes: deflationary-expectations-traps and secular stagnation in a unified setting. These hypotheses differ in the sign of the theoretical correlation between inflation and output growth that they imply. Using the data from Japan over 1998:Q1-2019:Q4, we find that the data favor the expectations-trap hypothesis. The superior model fit of the expectations trap relies on its ability to generate the observed negative correlation between inflation and output growth. |
| Keywords: | Expectations-driven trap; secular stagnation; zero lower bound (ZLB) |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2023–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:97783&r=mac |
| By: | Garga, Vaishali (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston); Lakdawala, Aeimit (Wake Forest University, Economics Department); Sengupta, Rajeswari (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | We propose a novel framework to gauge the credibility of a central bank’s commitment to inflation targeting. Our framework combines survey data on macroeconomic forecasts with financial market data to estimate how market-perceived responsiveness of the central bank to inflation evolves with the adoption of inflation targeting. This approach is especially suitable for emerging economies, many of which have adopted an inflation targeting framework but lack data on long-run inflation expectations. We apply our framework to study the adoption of inflation targeting in India. We find that the Reserve Bank of India’s commitment to inflation targeting is viewed as credible. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomic forecasts; Financial markets; Credibility; Inflation Targeting; Inflation expectations. |
| JEL: | E44 E47 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2024–03–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:wfuewp:0107&r=mac |
| By: | Xuebei HU (Chongqing Three Gorges University, China) |
| Abstract: | During the Southern Dynasty of China, the belief that human physiology and temperament derived from innate nature and external influences persisted, leading to a close relationship between personal constitution and literary style. This study investigates the connection between Chinese traditional medicine and literature in the Southern Dynasty. The weakened health of the aristocratic families in the Jiangdong region became a backdrop to showcase their political talents and moral integrity, establishing that a weak physical constitution symbolized high literary excellence, as evidenced by the famous, flamboyant literary style of the time. In this context, physical health was intimately linked to literary creation and style, forming a dynamic cycle through mutual resonance. This research provides a new interdisciplinary perspective for studying classical Chinese literature and is significant for East Asian cultural studies. |
| Keywords: | East Asian cultural studies, classical Chinese literature, the Southern Dynasty, personal constitution, literary style |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0277&r=mac |
| By: | Torben M. Andersen; Cecilie Marie Løchte Jørgensen |
| Abstract: | Socio-economic differences in longevity have fuelled a debate whether pension systems have a regressive bias favouring groups with a high life expectancy. We show that the distributional implications of such pooling depend critically on the benefit profile across age/time, which in turn is determined by how benefits are indexed to prices and wages. Choosing indexation scheme involves a choice between a low initial benefit with an increasing profile and a high initial benefit with a flat/decreasing profile, where the former benefits groups with a high life expectancy, and vice versa. We analyse how indexation affects the trade-off between insurance and distribution when groups with different mortality are separated or pooled, and the optimal benefit profile under both standard preferences and temporal risk aversion wrt. the length of life. |
| Keywords: | annuities, differential mortality, distribution, indexation |
| JEL: | D14 G22 H55 J18 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10943&r=mac |
| By: | Yu, Chen |
| Abstract: | In the epoch where artificial intelligence (AI) has become the harbinger of civilization's progress, the integration of cultural inheritance and identity into AI development emerges as a pivotal concern, especially for non-Western societies. "The Garden of Forking Paths: Options for Non-Western Societies in the Age of AI" explores the nuanced landscape that these societies navigate in the age of AI, juxtaposing the risks of cultural homogenization against the potential for cultural reinforcement through AI. The article delves into the metaphor of forking paths to depict the complex decisions and strategies that non-Western countries face in preserving their cultural uniqueness amidst the global AI revolution. It outlines a series of strategic interventions, including the formulation of culturally-rooted AI ethics guidelines, leveraging AI to promote heritage and languages, fostering participatory AI development, creating indigenized AI solutions, and encouraging cross-cultural AI dialogue and collaboration. These strategies are proposed as avenues to ensure that AI development not only respects but also enriches the cultural diversity of the global community. The article concludes with a call to action for stakeholders across the globe to engage in the co-creation of an AI future that is inclusive, respectful, and reflective of the rich tapestry of human cultures, thereby shaping an AI legacy that complements and enhances cultural inheritance. |
| Date: | 2024–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:bk8q2&r=mac |
| By: | Fethi Amri (University of Gabes) |
| Date: | 2023–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1700&r=mac |
| By: | Kamel Mohammedi (Biologie des maladies cardiovasculaires = Biology of Cardiovascular Diseases - UB - Université de Bordeaux - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Audrey Cordon (CIC Bordeaux - Université Bordeaux Segalen - Bordeaux 2 - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale); Vincent Rigalleau (BPH - Bordeaux population health - UB - Université de Bordeaux - Institut de Santé Publique, d'Épidémiologie et de Développement (ISPED) - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, Biologie des maladies cardiovasculaires = Biology of Cardiovascular Diseases - UB - Université de Bordeaux - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Ninon Foussard (Biologie des maladies cardiovasculaires = Biology of Cardiovascular Diseases - UB - Université de Bordeaux - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Celine Bairras-Martin (CHU Bordeaux); Thierry Couffinhal (Biologie des maladies cardiovasculaires = Biology of Cardiovascular Diseases - UB - Université de Bordeaux - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Julien Bezin (BPH - Bordeaux population health - UB - Université de Bordeaux - Institut de Santé Publique, d'Épidémiologie et de Développement (ISPED) - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale); Antoine Benard (BPH - Bordeaux population health - UB - Université de Bordeaux - Institut de Santé Publique, d'Épidémiologie et de Développement (ISPED) - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale) |
| Date: | 2023–11–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04461501&r=mac |
| By: | Defilippi, Enzo (Universidad del Pacífico); ; |
| Abstract: | Jorge Chavez International Airport (JCIA) is Peru’s main airport, handling 95% of the country’s international traffic. Since its concession in 2001 international transfers have grown 15 times and in 2019 represented 42% of the international outbound traffic. This substantial increase, and the fact that transfer passengers do not pay a fee for the use of the airport’s infrastructure, suggest a misalignment between the incentives faced by concessionaire and the public interest. This misalignment has the potential of reducing the Peru’s air connectivity in the future. The goal of this paper is to assess: (i) if it is convenient to authorize the JCIA’s concessionaire to charge a transfer fee to foreign nationals even though this might generate economic rents, and (ii) if so, whether this fee should be set by the market or by the regulator. Results suggest that it would be desirable to allow the concessionaire to charge a transfer fee even if this results in economic rents, and that JCIA faces competition within the geographic market of international transfer services, which implies that if fee is authorized it should not be set by the regulator. |
| Keywords: | air connectivity, economic regulation, airport regulation, airport competition, transfer traffic. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pai:wpaper:23-01&r=mac |
| By: | Alfaro, Laura; Bloom, Nick; Conconi, Paola; Fadinger, Harald; Legros, Patrick; Newman, Andrew F.; Sadun, Raffaella; Van Reenen, John |
| Abstract: | We jointly study firm boundaries and the allocation of decision rights within them by confronting an incomplete-contracts model with data on vertical integration and delegation for thousands of firms around the world. Integration has an option value: it confers authority to delegate or centralize decision rights, depending on who can best solve problems that arise in the course of an uncertain production process. In line with the model’s predictions, we find that firms are more likely to integrate suppliers that produce more valuable inputs and operate in industries with more dispersed productivity, and that firms delegate more decisions to integrated suppliers that produce more valuable inputs and operate in more productive industries. |
| JEL: | D20 L20 |
| Date: | 2024–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:119709&r=mac |
| By: | Pascal Raux (AMURE - Aménagement des Usages des Ressources et des Espaces marins et littoraux - Centre de droit et d'économie de la mer - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UBO - Université de Brest - IUEM - Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - UBO - Université de Brest - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This training course devoted to African students and stakeholders attending the AfriMAQUA conference is part of the MARINE AQUACULTURE TRAINING WORKSHOP held in Mombasa, Kenya, 27th – 28th October 2023, in the continuation of the AfriMAQUA Conference and is part of the International Joint Laboratory action LIMAQUA. The training workshop proposed 5 courses: - Seaweeds in integrated aquaculture - Sustainable strategies for improving health of intensive aquaculture systems - Aquaculture nutrition - Remote sensing for aquaculture and - Economics of aquaculture farms The purpose of the Economics of aquaculture farms was to propose an introduction to the economics of a farm through a self-directed exercise, especially for non economists. Objective was to acquire i) a first understanding of economic and technical performance measurement of aquaculture farms, ii) an introduction to the Costs/Benefits Analysis of production systems and iii) how collecting relevant information for economic analysis. The course was structured according to the following sections: - Introduction to Aquaculture History and its dynamics - Farms and Production systems - Farms Economics - An application to the case of shrimp farming development in the Indonesian province of Lampung, Sumatra |
| Keywords: | aquaculture, economics, Economic Development, Farms and agricultural practices, Farm Profitability, Farm Accounting, shrimp culture, sustainability |
| Date: | 2023–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04439181&r=mac |
| By: | Barbara Petrongolo |
| Abstract: | The study of gender was far from mainstream in economics when Claudia Goldin began her research on women and work in the 1980s. Barbara Petrongolo discusses the impact of the 2023 economics Nobel laureate in shaping today's research frontier on gender inequalities - from public policy to the stereotypes and social norms that have such a powerful influence on women's participation in the labour market. |
| Keywords: | gender, equality, public policy, labour markets |
| Date: | 2024–02–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:671&r=mac |
| By: | Alessandro V. M. Oliveira |
| Abstract: | This study investigates price seasonality in the Brazilian air transport industry, emphasizing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on domestic airline pricing strategies. Given potential shifts in demand patterns following the global health crisis, this study explores possible long-term structural changes in the seasonality of Brazilian airfare. We analyze an open dataset of domestic city pairs from 2013 to 2023, employing an econometric model developed using Stata software. Our findings indicate alterations in seasonal patterns and long-term trends in the post-pandemic era. These changes underscore potential shifts in the composition of leisure and business travelers, along with the cost pressures faced by airlines. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.13789&r=mac |
| By: | International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) |
| Abstract: | The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi with the goal of providing clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. The reports are intended as a resource for those interested in maize markets in Malawi, namely producers, traders, consumers, policy makers, and other agricultural stakeholders. |
| Keywords: | MALAWI, SOUTHERN AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, maize, market prices, retail prices, food prices |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:masspr:december2023&r=mac |
| By: | Valdes, Constanza; Gillespie, Jeffrey; Dohlman, Erik |
| Abstract: | The production of soybeans, the fourth leading crop produced globally, is projected to reach a record level in marketing year (MY) 2023/24. Combined, soybeans and their products—soybean meal and soybean oil—are the most traded agricultural commodity, accounting for nearly 9 percent of the total value of global agricultural trade. Brazil is the world’s largest soybean producer and exporter, with the United States and Brazil jointly supplying 89 percent of soybean exports to the world in MY 2021/22 (USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service [FAS], 2023). Soybeans stand out as a crucial crop in the expansion of Brazil’s farm sector and the country’s ascent as a top global supplier of agricultural products. This report focuses on the export competitiveness for soybeans in Brazil and the United States over the MY 2017/18–2021/22 periods by comparing farm-level production costs, producer returns, the cost of internal transportation, and the cost of shipping to a common export destination. With soybean production in Brazil expected to reach a record high in MY 2023/24, a weaker value of Brazil’s currency, and the country’s exporting capabilities expecting a boost (from expanding transportation infrastructure), changes in the competitiveness of Brazil will have important implications for U.S. and international agricultural markets. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade, Land Economics/Use, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersib:340506&r=mac |
| By: | Francois de Soyres; Dylan Moore |
| Abstract: | Since the beginning of 2018, the United States and China have been increasing tariff rates on each other's imports, spurring debates about a possible fragmentation of trade into blocs of aligned countries (Pierce and Yu (2023), Alfaro and Chor (2023)). Later that year, in a November 2018 speech to workers at a state-owned enterprise, President Xi Jinping mentioned that current events were forcing China to "travel the road of self-reliance." |
| Date: | 2024–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2024-02-02&r=mac |