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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Gerke, Rafael; Giesen, Sebastian; Lozej, Matija; Röttger, Joost |
| Abstract: | Heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian models with sticky nominal wages usually assume that wage-setting unions demand the same amount of hours from all households. As a result, unions do not take account of the fact that (i) households are heterogeneous in their willingness to work, and that (ii) some households might have to work more hours than they would like to. In this paper, we consider two departures from the standard modelling approach. First, we consider a model version in which unions can demand different hours from different households, directly taking household heterogeneity into account. In this case, we show that unions find it optimal to ration hours worked for all households, such that nobody works more than desired. Compared to the standard case in which all households work the same amount by assumption, the response of output, wages and inflation to monetary policy shocks becomes notably less pronounced. This attenuation reflects that hours worked respond differently across the income distribution. The second model version we consider maintains the assumption that all households work the same amount but prohibits unions from requiring any household to work more than it would like to. This modification substantially lowers the effective stickiness of nominal wages, resulting in markedly different wage and inflation dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Heterogeneous households, HANK, labour supply, nominal wage rigidity, monetary policy |
| JEL: | D31 E21 E24 E31 E52 E58 J22 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:282992&r=mac |
| By: | Diogo Martins |
| Abstract: | This article provides a critical review of the post-pandemic inflation debate. The first part structures the debate through the classification of the arguments into two broad categories (the neoclassical view and the critical political economy view) along with several subcategories. The classification is informed by the positions assumed by debate participants regarding the origin and propagation mechanisms of inflation, together with the economic policy solutions advanced to face the current inflationary episode. The second part is focused on showing that the hegemony of contractionary monetary policy as a policy response to address contemporary inflation is based on weak foundations, whose theoretical and empirical arguments have been consistently and convincingly disputed in critical political economy circles over the last decades. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; pandemic; critical political economy; neoclassical economics; central banks; monetary policy. |
| JEL: | E12 E31 E32 E52 E61 E64 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03082024&r=mac |
| By: | Beck, Günter W.; Carstensen, Kai; Menz, Jan-Oliver; Schnorrenberger, Richard; Wieland, Elisabeth |
| Abstract: | We study how millions of highly granular and weekly household scanner data combined with novel machine learning techniques can help to improve the nowcast of monthly German inflation in real time. Our nowcasting exercise targets three hierarchy levels of the official consumer price index. First, we construct a large set of weekly scanner-based price indices at the lowest aggregation level underlying official German inflation, such as those of butter and coffee beans. We show that these indices track their official counterparts extremely well. Within a mixed-frequency modeling framework, we also demonstrate that these scanner-based price indices improve inflation nowcasts at this very narrow level, notably already after the first seven days of a month. Second, we apply shrinkage estimators to exploit the large set of scanner-based price indices in nowcasting product groups such as processed and unprocessed food. This yields substantial predictive gains compared to a time series benchmark model. Finally, we nowcast headline inflation. Adding high-frequency information on energy and travel services, we construct highly competitive nowcasting models that are on par with, or even outperform, survey-based inflation expectations that are notoriously difficult to beat. |
| Keywords: | Inflationnowcasting, machine learningmethods, scannerprice data, mixed-frequency modeling |
| JEL: | E31 C55 E37 C53 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:282982&r=mac |
| By: | Hüttl, Pia; Kaldorf, Matthias |
| Abstract: | How does a shock to the liquidity of bank assets affect credit supply, cross-border lending, and real activity at the firm level? We exploit that, in 2007, the European Central Bank replaced national collateral frameworks by a single list. This collateral framework shock added loans to non-domestic euro area firms to the pool of eligible assets. Using loan level data, we show that banks holding a large share of newly eligible cross-border loans increase loan supply by 14% and reduce spreads by 16 basis points, compared to banks with smaller holdings of such loans. The additional credit is mainly extended to (previously eligible) domestic borrowers, suggesting only a limited cross-border effect of the collateral framework shock. However, the shock had real effects: firms highly exposed to affected banks increase their total debt, employment, and investment. |
| Keywords: | Bank Liquidity Shocks, Bank Lending Channel, Financial Integration, Real Effects, Eligibility Premia |
| JEL: | E44 E58 G21 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:283006&r=mac |
| By: | Assenmacher, Katrin; Ferrari Minesso, Massimo; Mehl, Arnaud; Pagliari, Maria Sole |
| Abstract: | We develop a two-country DSGE model with financial frictions to study the transition from a steady-state without CBDC to one in which the home country issues a CBDC. The CBDC provides households with a liquid, convenient and storage-cost free means of payments which reduces the market power of banks on deposits. In the steady-state CBDC unambiguously improves welfare without disintermediating the banking sector. But macroeconomic volatility in the transition period to the new steady-state increases for plausible values of the latter. Demand for CBDC and money overshoot, thereby crowding out bank deposits and leading to initial declines in investment, consumption and output. We use non-linear solution methods with occasionally binding constraints to explore how alternative policies reduce volatility in the transition, contrasting the effects of restrictions on non-residents, binding caps, tiered remuneration and central bank asset purchases. Binding caps reduce disintermediation and output losses in the transition most effectively, with an optimal level of around 40% of steady-state CBDC demand. JEL Classification: E50, E58, F30, F41 |
| Keywords: | central bank digital currency, occasionally binding constraints, open-economy DSGE models, steadystate transition |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242907&r=mac |
| By: | Yuetong Wang (University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom) |
| Abstract: | Chinese state-owned enterprises play a significant global role. Cross-regional development has emerged as a pivotal strategic choice due to China's imperative for sustained economic growth and the continuously evolving market dynamics. The research aim is to enhance Human resource management practices within Chinese SOEs and provide a comprehensive understanding of HRM strategies to facilitate effective cross-regional development, which is a crucial insight into coordinated development and sustained growth in different regions. This objective is achieved through a quantitative research method to enable a meticulous analysis of the intricate interplay among Confucian cultural factors, HRM practices, and employee satisfaction, examining the complex relationships, including correlations, and mediating effects. Significantly, the research findings highlight a pivotal sub-domain of HRM—Staffing, which exhibits the highest mediating effect among these variables. This implies that dedicating resources, efforts, and attention to this specific area can yield substantial benefits for organizations. It establishes a foundation and focal point for formulating HRM strategies for cross-regional development. This research not only offers a nuanced perspective on HRM practices in a cross-regional context, but also reveals the intricacies of operations within Chinese SOEs. Furthermore, it holds the promise of providing valuable insights and inspiration for the fields of international business management and cross-cultural management, shedding light on the complexities involved and offering valuable lessons for international enterprises operating in similar contexts. |
| Keywords: | ross-regional development, HRM practices, HRM strategies, Chinese SOEs, cultural factors, employee satisfaction |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0356&r=mac |
| By: | Umberger, Wendy |
| Abstract: | Our demands on the world’s food producers continue to grow as we look to the global food system to efficiently provide growing populations with safe, nutritious and higher quality food, while also using fewer inputs and preserving vulnerable ecosystems. At the same time, rapid economic transition in many countries, increased integration of global markets and new technologies provide many opportunities for the farming sector. Smallholder farmers, who feed a significant portion of the global population, remain amongst the world’s poorest people, and they are one of the groups most vulnerable to impacts of climate change such as more extreme weather events, less predictable weather patterns, threatened water security, emerging pest and disease threats and soil and land degradation. They face complex livelihood decisions which will see many leave the sector for opportunities in urban areas, leaving increasing labour shortages in rural areas. This presentation explores options for innovation by smallholders to address these on-farm risks and the technologies, policies, and economic and social enablers needed to facilitate more resilient food and nutrition systems. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp23:339630&r=mac |
| By: | Jingyi Gu; Wenlu Du; Guiling Wang |
| Abstract: | Efforts to predict stock market outcomes have yielded limited success due to the inherently stochastic nature of the market, influenced by numerous unpredictable factors. Many existing prediction approaches focus on single-point predictions, lacking the depth needed for effective decision-making and often overlooking market risk. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel model, RAGIC, which introduces sequence generation for stock interval prediction to quantify uncertainty more effectively. Our approach leverages a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) to produce future price sequences infused with randomness inherent in financial markets. RAGIC's generator includes a risk module, capturing the risk perception of informed investors, and a temporal module, accounting for historical price trends and seasonality. This multi-faceted generator informs the creation of risk-sensitive intervals through statistical inference, incorporating horizon-wise insights. The interval's width is carefully adjusted to reflect market volatility. Importantly, our approach relies solely on publicly available data and incurs only low computational overhead. RAGIC's evaluation across globally recognized broad-based indices demonstrates its balanced performance, offering both accuracy and informativeness. Achieving a consistent 95% coverage, RAGIC maintains a narrow interval width. This promising outcome suggests that our approach effectively addresses the challenges of stock market prediction while incorporating vital risk considerations. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.10760&r=mac |
| By: | Ignas Gasparavi\v{c}ius; Andrius Grigutis |
| Abstract: | This survey article is dedicated to the life of the famous American economist H. Markowitz (1927--2023). We do revisit the main statements of the portfolio selection theory in terms of mathematical completeness including all the necessary auxiliary details. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.10253&r=mac |
| By: | Wintemute, Garen J.; Robinson, Sonia; Crawford, Andrew; Tomsich, Elizabeth A.; Reeping, Paul M; Shev, Aaron; Velasquez, Bradley; Tancredi, Daniel Joseph (University of California, Davis) |
| Abstract: | Background: A 2022 survey in the USA found concerningly high prevalences of support for and personal willingness to engage in political violence, of beliefs associated with such violence, and of belief that civil war was likely in the near future. It is important to determine the durability of those findings. Methods: Wave 2 of a nationally representative cohort survey was conducted May 18-June 8, 2023; the sample comprised all respondents to 2022’s Wave 1. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions; changes from 2022 to 2023 are for respondents who participated in both surveys, based on aggregated individual change scores. Results: The completion rate was 84.2%; there were 9385 respondents. After weighting, 50.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 49.4%, 52.1%) were female; weighted mean (± standard deviation) age was 48.5 (±25.9) years. One in 6 (16.1%, 95% CI 15.0%, 17.1%) agreed strongly/very strongly in 2023 that “having a strong leader for America is more important than having a democracy, ” a 2.3% decrease from 2022. About 1 in 20 (5.7%, 95% CI 5.1%, 6.4%) agreed strongly/very strongly that “in the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States, ” a 7.7% decrease. Of these respondents, 38.4% (95% CI 32.3%, 44.5%) strongly/very strongly agreed that “the United States needs a civil war to set things right.” In 2023, fewer respondents considered violence to be usually/always justified to advance at least 1 of 17 specific political objectives [25.3% (95% CI 24.7%, 26.5%), a 6.8% decrease]. However, more respondents thought it very/extremely likely that within the next few years, in a situation where they consider political violence justified, “I will be armed with a gun” [9.0% (95% CI 8.3%, 9.8%), a 2.2% increase] and “I will shoot someone with a gun” [1.8% (95% CI 1.4%, 2.2%), a 0.6% increase]. Among respondents who considered violence usually/always justified to advance at least 1 political objective, about 1 in 20 also thought it very/extremely likely that they would threaten someone with a gun (5.4%, 95% CI 4.0%, 7.0%) or shoot someone (5.7%, 95% CI 4.3%, 7.1%) to advance such an objective. Conclusions: In this cohort, support for political violence declined from 2022 to 2023, but predictions of firearm use in political violence increased. These findings can help guide prevention efforts, which are urgently needed. |
| Date: | 2024–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wy5ez&r=mac |
| By: | Padilla, Samantha; Baker, Quinton |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats23:339485&r=mac |
| By: | Bruno Boidin (CLERSÉ - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Date: | 2023–10–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04431397&r=mac |
| By: | Meier, Andre; Kock, Alexander |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:142863&r=mac |
| By: | Enache Tusa (Ovidius University of Constanta, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The education system in Romania reached a high degree of maturity in the period after the First World War, integrating different educational systems, thus managing to include a large number of the country's population in a form of organized education. At that time, only primary education was compulsory and free, and the country was faced with illiteracy that affected especially the elderly segments of the population. Education has been and will remain a priority. It begins at birth and continues throughout life in various forms. To support this judgement, we proceed to the development of policies that integrate the health and social fields into education. |
| Keywords: | management, education, PISA, school management |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0329&r=mac |