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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Ruoyun Mao (Department of Economics, University of Arkansas); Wenyi Shen (Department of Economics, Oklahoma State University); Shu-Chun S. Yang (Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan) |
| Abstract: | Large expansionary fiscal measures are often implemented with monetary accommoda- tion during an economic crisis. When a government is highly indebted, and the timing of switching to the conventional regime M (passive fiscal/active monetary policies) is uncertain, a government spending increase in regime F (active fiscal/passive monetary policies) increases government debt. Such regime uncertainty dampens inflation and debt revaluation effects. Also, as regime uncertainty generates a smaller real interest rate decline, debt servicing costs fall less, and tax revenues increase less, than in the fixed regime F. These factors contribute to reversing the debt decline for a spending increase in the fixed regime F. The result holds under adverse supply shocks and po- tentially higher capital taxes, relevant factors in the post-COVID U.S. economy. |
| JEL: | E62 E63 E52 H30 E32 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sin:wpaper:23-a007&r=mac |
| By: | Shigeto Kitano (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, JAPAN); Kenya Takaku (Faculty of International Studies, Hiroshima City University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | Fluctuations in commodity prices have significant effects on output and financial stability in emerging countries. We examine the effect of macroprudential policies on commodity-exporting countries, which consist of two sectors---the commodity-producing sector and final goods sector. When a commodity-exporting country suffers from volatile fluctuations in commodity prices, we find that macroprudential policy in each sector is welfare-enhancing and that it is optimal to impose macroprudential policies in both sectors. We also show that macroprudential policies are more effective in improving welfare for commodity-exporting economies suffering from a stronger link between commodity prices and interest rate spreads, higher sensitivity of interest spreads to debt, and larger commodity price shocks. |
| Keywords: | Macroprudential policies; Commodity-exporting countries; DSGE model; Financial frictions; Emerging economies; Mongolia |
| JEL: | E32 E44 F32 O20 Q48 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2023-21&r=mac |
| By: | Kaas, Leo; Lalé, Etienne; Siassi, Nawid |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a macroeconomic model that combines an incomplete-markets overlapping-generations economy with a job ladder featuring sequential wage bargaining, endogenous search effort of employed and non-employed workers, and differences in match quality. The calibrated model offers a good fit to the empirical age profiles of search activity, job-finding rates, wages and savings, so that we use the model to examine the role of age and wealth for worker flows and for the consequences of job loss. We further analyze the impact of unemployment insurance and progressive taxation for labor market dynamics and aggregate economic activity via capital, employment and labor efficiency channels. Lower unemployment benefits or a less progressive tax schedule bring about welfare losses for a newborn worker household. |
| Keywords: | Search and matching, ob-to-job transitions, Incomplete markets, Overlapping generations, Wealth accumulation |
| JEL: | E21 E24 H24 J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:280694&r=mac |
| By: | Zhao Han; Chengcheng Jia |
| Abstract: | Is the "information effect" of monetary policy quantitatively important? We first use a simple model to show that under asymmetric information, monetary policy surprises are correlated with the unobserved state of the economy. This correlation implies that monetary policy surprises provide information about the state of the economy, and at the same time, explains why the estimation of the information effect may be biased. We then develop a New Keynesian DSGE model under asymmetric information and calibrate model parameters to match macroeconomic dynamics in the US and forecasting accuracy in the Greenbook. Under our calibration, both the central bank and the private sector initially have noisy information. Over time, the information effect of monetary policy mitigates information frictions by enhancing the two-way learning between the central bank and the private sector. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy; information frictions; asymmetric information |
| JEL: | E52 E58 D84 |
| Date: | 2023–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:97469&r=mac |
| By: | Dario Caldara; Francesco Ferrante; Matteo Iacoviello; Andrea Prestipino; Albert Queraltó |
| Abstract: | We use historical data and a calibrated model of the world economy to study how a synchronous monetary tightening can amplify cross-border transmission of monetary policy. The empirical analysis shows that historical episodes of synchronous tightening are associated with tighter financial conditions and larger effects on economic activity than asynchronous ones. In the model, a sufficiently large synchronous tightening can disrupt intermediation of credit by global financial intermediaries causing large output losses and an increase in sacrifice ratios, that is, output lost for a given reduction in inflation. We use this framework to show that there are gains from coordination of international monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy; Inflation; International Spillovers; Financial Frictions; Open Economy Macroeconomics; Panel Data Estimation |
| JEL: | C33 E32 E44 F42 |
| Date: | 2023–11–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1384&r=mac |
| By: | Hajar Fanchy (Economic Performance and Logistics - University Hassan II [Casablanca]); Amal El Mzabi (Economic Performance and Logistics - University Hassan II [Casablanca]); Ahmed Hefnaoui (Economic Performance and Logistics - University Hassan II [Casablanca]) |
| Abstract: | This article explores the origins of cyclical macroeconomic fluctuations in Morocco. A reduced Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is used to identify these fluctuations, with a specific focus on demand, supply and monetary policy shocks. The study leverages data spanning from the first quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2022.The results indicates that supply pertubations predominantly drive production and inflation fluctuations within Morocco. Our economy tends to react more sensitively to supply-side factors, such as productivity fluctuations, supply chain interruptions and agricultural supply dynamics. The implications of these findings are significant for policy-makers, revealing the necessity to adjust and adapt their policies in order to stabilise the economy and promote economic growth. |
| Abstract: | Cet article explore les origines des fluctuations cycliques au Maroc en utilisant un modèle d'équilibre général stochastique dynamique (DSGE) réduit privilégiant l'examen des chocs résultant des variations de la demande, de l'offre, ainsi que de la politique monétaire. Pour étayer notre étude, nous mobilisons des données s'étalant du premier trimestre 2007 au quatrième trimestre 2022. Les résultats obtenus soulignent le rôle prépondérant des perturbations du côté de l'offre dans les variations de la production et de l'inflation au Maroc L'économie réagit de manière plus marquée aux facteurs liés l'offre, notamment la productivité, les interruptions de la chaîne d'approvisionnement et la dynamique de l'offre agricole. Les implications de ces constatations sont d'importance pour les décideurs politiques, mettant en évidence la nécessité d'ajuster et d'adapter leur politique en vue de stabiliser l'économie et de promouvoir la croissance économique. |
| Keywords: | Business cycle, Reduced DSGE, Fluctuations origins, Supply shocks., Cycle économique, DSGE réduit, Origines de fluctuations, Chocs d'offre. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04304857&r=mac |
| By: | John H Cochrane |
| Abstract: | Our central banks set interest rate targets, and do not even pretend to control money supplies. How do interest rates affect inflation? We finally have a complete theory of inflation under interest rate targets and unconstrained liquidity. Its long-run properties mirror those of monetary theory: Inflation can be stable and determinate under interest rate targets, including a peg, analogous to a k-percent rule. The zero bound era is confirmatory evidence. Uncomfortably, stability means that higher interest rates eventually raise inflation, just as higher money growth eventually raises inflation. Sticky prices generate some short-run non-neutrality as well: Higher nominal interest rates can raise real rates and lower output. A model in which higher nominal interest rates temporarily lower inflation, without a change in fiscal policy, is a harder task. I exhibit one such model, but it paints a much more limited picture than standard beliefs. We either need a model with a stronger effect, or to accept that higher interest rates have quite limited power to lower inflation. Empirical understanding of how interest rates affect inflation without fiscal help is also a wide-open question. |
| Keywords: | inflation; fiscal theory of the price level; fiscal policy and inflation; interest rate theory; adaptive expectations models |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rba:rbaacp:acp2023-07&r=mac |
| By: | Maarten Meeuwis; Dimitris Papanikolaou; Jonathan L. Rothbaum; Lawrence D.W. Schmidt |
| Abstract: | We show that time variation in risk premia leads to time-varying idiosyncratic income risk for workers. Using US administrative data on worker earnings, we show that increases in risk premia lead to lower earnings for low-wage workers; these declines are primarily driven by job separations. By contrast, productivity shocks affect the earnings mainly of highly paid workers. We build an equilibrium model of labor market search that quantitatively replicates these facts. The model generates endogenous time-varying income risk in response to changes in risk premia and matches several stylized features of the data regarding unemployment and income risk over the business cycle. |
| JEL: | E3 E40 G1 J20 J30 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31968&r=mac |
| By: | Andrey Duván Rincón-Torres; Luisa María de la Hortúa-Pulido; Kimberly Rojas-Silva; Juan Manuel Julio-Román |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of macroeconomic announcements surprises on Colombian treasury bond spot rates in the medium term. For this, we employ a two-step regression approach proposed by Altavilla, Giannone and Modugno (2017), which takes into account the high frequency response to these surprises while filtering out the noise in the estimation of its medium to long term effect. We found that the share of variation of one day Colombian treasury bond spot rates changes explained by these surprises lies below 10%. Moreover, Colombian macroeconomic announcement surprises other than the nominal exchange rate depreciation do not seem to significantly affect spot rate changes, although important ones have big (but not significant) effect. Furthermore, the explanatory power of macroeconomic news surprises increases substantially at longer horizons, i.e. monthly and quarterly changes, reaching 34% for the latter. These results arise from the fact that spot rate changes show a delayed effect to shocks. This is mostly due to the features of the shocks contained in the error and the persistence of macroeconomic news surprises effect’s. Our results are robust to the appetite for risk of international investors measure employed in the model. **** RESUMEN: Estudiamos el efecto de mediano a largo plazo de las sorpresas en los anuncios de cifras macroeconómicas sobre las tasas cero cupón de los títulos denominados en pesos de la Tesorería Nacional, TES. Empleamos regresión en dos etapas propuesta por Altavilla, Giannone and Modugno (2017), la cual tiene en cuenta las respuestas de alta frecuencia a las sorpresas, que filtra el ruido en la estimación de los efectos en el mediano plazo. Encontramos que el porcentaje de las variaciones de los cambios de alta frecuencia de las tasas spot explicadas por las sorpresas es inferior al 10%. Adicionalmente, las sorpresas macroeconómicas colombianas, excepto la depreciación nominal, no afectan significativamente los cambios de las tasas cero cupón, aunque algunas sorpresas importantes tienen un efecto grande (pero no significativo). Además, el poder explicativo de las sorpresas se incrementa substancialmente para horizontes más largos, i.e. cambios mensuales y trimestrales, alcanzando un 34% para el último. Estos resultados reflejan el hecho de que las tasas spot responden con retraso a los choques, lo cual está asociado a las características de los choques en el error y la persistencia del efecto de las sorpresas. Nuestros resultados son robustos a la medida del apetito por riesgo de los inversionistas internacionales empleada en el modelo. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomic announcements, News, Low frequency analysis, Treasury bonds spot rates, Anuncios de cifras macroeconómicas, Noticias, Análisis de baja frecuencia, Tasa de los bonos de tesorería |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E47 G14 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1263&r=mac |
| By: | Jonathan Créchet (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON); Étienne Lalé (Department of Economics, York University); Linas Tarasonis (CEFER, Bank of Lithuania) |
| Abstract: | We propose new data moments to measure the role of life-cycle worker flows between employment, unemployment and out of the labor force in shaping cross-country differences in aggregate employment. We then show that a suitably extended version of the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model can capture well these data moments. Two features of the model are crucial for this result: heterogeneity in match quality and endogenous search intensity. We examine the implications of this model for the sources of employment dispersion across Europe's largest countries, assessing the contribution of factors related to (i) the production technology, (ii) search, and (iii) policies. The sources of cross-country employment dispersion differ substantially across ages. Technology factors account for most of the employment variance of youths and prime-age workers, whereas search and policies are the main drivers of employment differences for older individuals. |
| Keywords: | Employment, Unemployment, Labor Force Participation, Life cycle, Worker Flows, Labor Market Institutions |
| JEL: | E02 E24 J21 J64 J82 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ott:wpaper:2306e&r=mac |
| By: | Andrey Duván Rincón-Torres; Andrés Felipe Salas-Avila; Juan Manuel Julio-Román |
| Abstract: | We study the behaviour of three quantitative sample surveys and a non sample inflation expectation report for Colombia. We found that expectations in Colombia; (i) are not strongly, i.e. a la Muth, rational because they show cross-section disagreement, (ii) expectations, however, show some features of weak rationality, (iii) expectations disagreement is time varying and relate to inflation, inflation changes and the output gap, thus suggesting a staggered information flow to agents, (iv) the forecast error loss function employed by agents is not symmetric and increasingly penalizes higher expectations than finally observed inflation as the horizon grows, and (v) this fact also explains the stylised fact that observed expectation share with theoretical rational expectations that expectations look like lagged versions of inflation that dampen with the horizon. The latest finding also arises from a very general econometric set up we develop in this paper. These results imply that the effect of weakening the rational expectations assumption in Colombian monetary policy models should be assessed, especially when compared to sticky information and heterogeneous agents choosing non Mean Square forecast Error losses. **** RESUMEN: Analizamos tres encuestas cuantitativas muestrales y un reporte no muestral de expectativas de inflación para Colombia. Encontramos que las expectativas en Colombia:(i) no son fuertemente, a la Muth, racionales debido a que exhiben descuerdo en cada corte transversal; (ii) sin embargo, muestran características de racionalidad débil; (iii) el desacuerdo es tiempo variante y se relaciona con la inflación, sus cambios y la brecha del PIB, sugiriendo un flujo escalonado de la información para formularlas; (iv) la función de pérdida ante errores de expectativas no es simétrica y penaliza de forma creciente las expectativas más altas que la inflación observada en la medida que se extiende el horizonte; y (v) este resultado explica también el hecho estilizado que comparten las expectativas observadas y las teóricas que las expectativas parecen versiones rezagadas de la inflación observada que se suavizan con el horizonte. Este hallazgo surge también de un esquema econométrico muy general que desarrollamos en este artículo. Estos resultados implican que se debe establecer el efecto de debilitar el supuesto de expectativas racionales en los modelos para la política monetaria, especialmente cuando se comparan con modelos con flujos escalonados de información y agentes heterogéneos que escogen funciones de pérdida distintas al Error Cuadrático Medio de pronósticos. |
| Keywords: | Inflation Expectations, expectation disagreement, near unit root, weak and strong rationality, non symmetric loss function, Expectativas de inflación, desacuerdo de las expectativas, cercanía a una raíz unitaria, Racionalidad débil y fuerte, función de pérdida asimétrica |
| JEL: | C53 C82 E31 E37 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1262&r=mac |
| By: | Hernán Rincón-Castro; Juan Pablo Ángel-Mojica |
| Abstract: | El objetivo del estudio es modelar y determinar la incidencia tributaria de una reducción del impuesto sobre la renta de las empresas en Colombia. Para cumplir dicho objetivo se utiliza un modelo de equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico DSGE de economía cerrada con hogares heterogéneos y dos tipos de capital. Esto último permite incluir de una manera sencilla la prima por calificación (skill-premium) y la complementariedad del capital con la calificación del trabajo (capital-skill complementarity), variables que son determinantes de los cambios en la distribución del ingreso y el bienestar de los distintos tipos de hogares. Los resultados indican que una reducción del impuesto sobre la renta de las empresas aumenta el crecimiento económico, pero genera efectos redistributivos no deseados y no es óptimo en el sentido de Pareto, ya que, dependiendo del tipo instrumento de consolidación fiscal utilizado, se puede ampliar la brecha de la distribución de los ingresos de los hogares y afectar negativamente el bienestar de aquellos con restricciones financieras y menos calificados. Con el fin de lograr al mismo tiempo una menor carga tributaria sobre las empresas y mayor crecimiento económico, pero con más equidad y bienestar para todos los hogares, se requieren instrumentos alternativos. **** ABSTRACT: The objective of the study is to model and determine the tax incidence of a reduction in the corporate income tax in Colombia. To meet this objective, a dynamic and stochastic general equilibrium model DSGE of a closed economy with heterogeneous households and two types of capital is used. These make it possible to easily include the skill-premium and the complementarity of capital with labor skills (capital-skill complementarity), variables that are determinants of changes in the distribution of income and the welfare of the different types of households. The results indicate that a reduction in the corporate income tax increases economic growth but generates unwanted redistributive effects and is not optimal in the Pareto sense, since, depending on the type of fiscal consolidation instrument used, it can enlarge the distribution income gap and negatively affect the welfare of those households with financial constraints and less qualified. To achieve at the same time a lower tax burden on companies and greater economic growth, but with more equity and welfare for all households, alternative instruments are required.lassification-JEL: H22, H25 |
| Keywords: | impuesto sobre la renta, empresas, incidencia tributaria, efectos redistributivos, bienestar, corporate income tax, tax incidence, redistributive effects, welfare |
| JEL: | H22 H25 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1260&r=mac |
| By: | Anh Le; Alexander Copestake; Brandon Tan; Mr. Shanaka J Peiris; Umang Rawat |
| Abstract: | We develop a two-country New Keynesian model with endogenous currency substitution and financial frictions to examine the impact on a small developing economy of a stablecoin issued in a large foreign economy. The stablecoin provides households in the domestic economy with liquidity services and an additional hedge against domestic inflation. Its introduction amplifies currency substitution, reducing bank intermediation and weakening monetary policy transmission, worsening the impacts of recessionary shocks and increasing banking sector stress. Capital controls raise stablecoin adoption as a means of circumvention, increasing exposure to spillovers from foreign shocks. Unlike a domestic CBDC, a ban on stablecoin payments can alleviate these effects. |
| Keywords: | Cryptocurrency; Open Economy; Financial Frictions; Optimal Policy |
| Date: | 2023–12–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/249&r=mac |
| By: | Habtamu Fuje; Jiaxiong Yao; Seung Mo Choi; Hamza Mighri |
| Abstract: | Climate-induced disasters are causing increasingly frequent and intense economic damages, disproportionally affecting emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) relative to advanced economies (AEs). However, the impact of various types of climate shocks on output growth and fiscal positions of EMDEs is not fully understood. This research analyzes the macro-fiscal implications of three common climate disasters (droughts, storms, and floods) using a combination of macroeconomic data and comprehensive ground and satellite disaster indicators spanning the past three decades across 164 countries. Across EMDEs, where agriculture tends to be the principal sector, a drought reduces output growth by 1.4 percentage points and government revenue by 0.7 percent of GDP as it erodes the tax bases of affected countries. Meanwhile, likely reflecting limited fiscal space to respond to a disaster, fiscal expenditure does not increase following a drought. A storm drags output growth in EMDEs, albeit with negligible impact on fiscal revenue, but government expenditure increases due to reconstruction and clean-up efforts. We find only limited impact of localized floods on growth and fiscal positions. In contrast, AEs tend to experience negligible growth and fiscal consequences from climate-induced shocks. As these shocks have much more detrimental effects in EMDEs, international support for disaster preparedness and climate change adaptation play a crucial role for these countries to confront climate change. |
| Keywords: | Climate-related shocks; droughts; storms; floods; satellite data; macro-fiscal |
| Date: | 2023–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/261&r=mac |
| By: | Marinozzi Tomas |
| Abstract: | Probability forecasts are gaining popularity in the macroeconomic discipline as point forecasts lack the ability to capture the level of uncertainty in fundamental variables like inflation, growth, exchange rate, or unemployment. This paper explores the use of probability forecasts to predict inflation in Argentina. The paper tests 30 different probabilistic models and evaluates them using scoring rules. Results show that parsimonious univariate models have a relatively similar performance to that of the multivariate models around central scenarios but fail to capture tail risks, particularly at longer horizons. |
| JEL: | C4 E3 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4616&r=mac |
| By: | Fozan Fareed; Abolfazl Rezghi; Charlotte Sandoz |
| Abstract: | Inflationary pressures have intensified in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in 2021-2022, mainly driven by a pick-up in tradeable goods inflation. Despite this increase, inflation remained relatively contained as compared to regional comparators. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of inflation dynamics in the region, with a focus on external factors because of GCC’s high reliance on international trade. Using a Global Vector Autoregressive model with quarterly data from 1987 to 2022, we find that external factors such as the imported inflation from main trading partners, mainly driven by China, and nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) are the main drivers of inflation in the GCC region. Additionally, we find that the direct pass-through of international commodity price shocks such as oil and raw agricultural materials is somewhat limited, after controlling for trading partners’ inflation, which can be explained by the prevalence of subsidies and administered prices in the region. Overall, since external factors are the main drivers of domestic inflation in the GCC, an increased focus on diversification, promoting food security, and ensuring prudent central bank policies, including through effective liquidity management frameworks, can play a key role in managing this impact. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; external shocks; GCC; panel data; GVAR. |
| Date: | 2023–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/263&r=mac |
| By: | Gracy Mungosy Tsongo (Université de Goma); Anselme Paluku Kitakya (Université de Goma); Rodrigue Muhindo Kalere (Université de Goma) |
| Abstract: | Informality is an obstacle to economic development. Liberal authors associate it with clandestine operations carried out with the aim of evading public regulations, the costs of which are considered exorbitant. This paper aims to examine the effects of fiscal pressure on the size of the informal economy in Sub-Saharan Africa. To better achieve this objective, an empirical approach was adopted on a panel of 30 countries in this region over the period 2000-2017. The variables of tax pressure and informality were measured respectively by an intuitive indicator, i.e. the ratio of tax revenue to GDP, and by the size of the informal economy as a percentage of GDP observed on the basis of the multiple indicators multiple causes model (MIMIC). The estimates were carried out using a dynamic panel model by the system generalized method of moments and reveal the existence of positive effects of the tax pressure on informality. These effects are much more pronounced in low-income countries than in middle-income countries in the robustness checks of different income groups. In these countries, the informal sector is characterized by small production units with low sales. Excessive tax regulations suffocate these entrepreneurs, who prefer to remain in the informal sector or take refuge in it because of the complexity of procedures and tax harassment. The ensuing economic policy implications concern, on the one hand, the stimulation of aggregate demand by governments, by prioritizing social spending to enable businesses to increase their production levels and obtain consistent profits that will enable them to bear the tax burden, and on the other hand, the simplification of registration procedures, the reduction of formalization costs and the digitization of the tax collection process. |
| Abstract: | Résumé L'informalité constitue une entrave au développement économique. Les auteurs d'obédience libérale l'associent aux opérations clandestines menées dans le but d'échapper aux réglementions publiques dont les coûts sont jugés exorbitants. Le présent article examine les effets de la pression fiscale sur la taille de l'économie informelle en Afrique sub-saharienne. Pour mieux atteindre cet objectif, il a été adopté une démarche empirique sur un panel de 30 pays de cette région sur la période 2000-2017. Les variables pression fiscale et informalité ont été mesurées respectivement par l'indicateur intuitif de la pression fiscale en l'occurrence le ratio recettes fiscales/PIB et par la taille de l'économie informelle en pourcentage du PIB observée sur base du modèle MIMIC (multiple indicators multiple causes model). Les estimations ont été réalisées à l'aide d'un modèle de panel dynamique par la méthode des moments généralisés en système et révèlent l'existence des effets positifs de la pression fiscale sur l'informalité. Grâce au test de robustesse, il est établit que ces effets sont beaucoup plus prononcés dans les pays à faibles revenus que dans ceux à revenus intermédiaires. Dans ces pays, le secteur informel est caractérisé par des petites unités de production ayant un faible niveau de chiffre d'affaires. La règlementation fiscale excessive entraine l'asphyxie de ces entrepreneurs qui préfèrent demeurer dans l'informel ou s'y réfugier à la suite de la complexité des procédures et aux tracasseries fiscales. Les implications de politiques économiques qui en découlent concernent d'une part la stimulation de la demande globale par les Etats en priorisant les dépenses à caractère social afin de permettre aux entreprises d'accroitre leur niveau de production, d'obtenir des bénéfices consistants qui les rendront capables de supporter les charges fiscales et d'autre part la simplification des procédures d'enregistrement, l'allégement des coûts de formalisation et la numérisation du processus de recouvrement fiscal. Mots clés : Informalité, Pression fiscale, Méthode des Moments Généralisés, Afrique subsaharienne. Classification JEL : H32 Type de l'article : Recherche appliquée Abstract Informality is an obstacle to economic development. Liberal authors associate it with clandestine operations carried out with the aim of evading public regulations, the costs of which are considered exorbitant. This paper aims to examine the effects of fiscal pressure on the size of the informal economy in Sub-Saharan Africa. To better achieve this objective, an empirical approach was adopted on a panel of 30 countries in this region over the period 2000-2017. The variables of tax pressure and informality were measured respectively by an intuitive indicator, i.e. the ratio of tax revenue to GDP, and by the size of the informal economy as a percentage of GDP observed on the basis of the multiple indicators multiple causes model (MIMIC). The estimates were carried out using a dynamic panel model by the system generalized method of moments and reveal the existence of positive effects of the tax pressure on informality. These effects are much more pronounced in low-income countries than in middle-income countries in the robustness checks of different income groups. In these countries, the informal sector is characterized by small production units with low sales. Excessive tax regulations suffocate these entrepreneurs, who prefer to remain in the informal sector or take refuge in it because of the complexity of procedures and tax harassment. The ensuing economic policy implications concern, on the one hand, the stimulation of aggregate demand by governments, by prioritizing social spending to enable businesses to increase their production levels and obtain consistent profits that will enable them to bear the tax burden, and on the other hand, the simplification of registration procedures, the reduction of formalization costs and the digitization of the tax collection process. Keywords: Informality, Tax Pressure, Generalized Method of Moment, Sub-Saharan Africa. JEL Classification: H32 Paper type: Empirical research |
| Keywords: | Informality Tax Pressure Generalized Method of Moment Sub-Saharan Africa. JEL Classification: H32 Paper type: Empirical research, Informality, Tax Pressure, Generalized Method of Moment, Sub-Saharan Africa. JEL Classification: H32 Paper type: Empirical research |
| Date: | 2023–10–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04315661&r=mac |
| By: | Miklós Koren (Central European University, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Centre for Economic and Policy Research, CESifo); Krisztina Orbán (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | Good management practices are important determinants of firm success. It is unclear, however, to what extent pro-management policies can shape aggregate outcomes. We use data on corporations and their top managers in Hungary during and after its post-communist transition to document a number of salient patterns. First, the number of managers is low under communism when most employment is in large conglomerates. After the transition to capitalism, the number of managers increased sharply. Second, economics and business degrees became more popular with capitalist transition. Third, newly entering managers tended to run smaller firms than incumbent managers. We build a dynamic equilibrium model to explain these facts. In the model, the number and average quality of managers react to schooling and career choice. We use the model to evaluate hypothetical policies aiming to improve aggregate productivity through management education and corporate liberalization. Our results suggest that variations in the supply of good managers are important to understand the success of management interventions. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: management, productivity |
| JEL: | E24 O15 O40 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2329&r=mac |
| By: | Hilde C. Bjørnland; Malin C. Jensen; Leif Anders Thorsrud |
| Abstract: | We use a unique measure of daily economic activity and manually audited nonpharmaceutical intervention (NPI) indexes for Noway and Sweden to model the joint dynamic interaction between COVID-19 policy, health, and business cycle outcomes within a SVAR framework. Our analysis documents potentially large measurement errors in commonly used containment policy measures, and significant endogeneity between the model’s variables. Assuming reduced rank for the stochastic elements of the model and applying sign restrictions, we find that both containment policy shocks and precautionary behavior lowers the pandemic burden, but that containment policies also have significant adverse economic effects. Moreover, we find little support for using mobility statistics as a proxy for economic activity and we document that a large share of the variation in containment policies is driven by forward-looking behavior. Finally, we perform a series of counterfactual simulations highlighting the difference between unexpected and systematic NPI strategies, and the nexus between the Norwegian and Swedish experience in particular. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bny:wpaper:0126&r=mac |
| By: | Krysa Ariel; Gómez Aguirre Maximiliano |
| Abstract: | Con el objetivo de cuantificar el efecto de la caída de la tasa de interés en los préstamos al consumo en Argentina entre marzo y diciembre de 2020, se estiman modelos mensuales de corrección de error y se desarrollan escenarios contrafactuales para los préstamos de tarjeta y los personales. Se considera el caso alternativo en que la tasa de interés hubiera quedado fija en 2020 a los valores de febrero de ese año y/o la situación que los parámetros que operasen en los mercados de préstamos al consumo fueran los previos a la crisis del COVID-19. Las situaciones alternativas implementadas en el marco de los modelos econométricos sugieren que la diminución de la tasa de interés habría amortiguado, con distintas magnitudes a lo largo del 2020, la caída ocasionada por los efectos de la pandemia tanto en los préstamos de tarjeta como en los personales. |
| JEL: | C01 E0 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4615&r=mac |
| By: | Carolina Román (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Gastón Díaz (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Sociales. Programa de Historia Económica y Social); Pablo Marmisolle (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Maximiliano Presa (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Carolina Romero (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Henry Willebald (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | The service sector in Uruguay, at present, occupies a prominent role in the productive structure, representing around two-thirds of the gross value added. This has led some to argue, from differing perspectives, that “Uruguay is a country of services”. However, this characterization is far from recent. Already in the middle of the 20th century, the service sector gross value added represented more than 55% of the output. Moreover, the historiography recognizes several services as fundamental to Uruguay’s development in the 19th century. Despite this, the lack of systematic measurement of the service sector gross value added has limited studies on the evolution of non-material activities and their impact on growth. One of the main goals of this research project is to fill this gap and offer estimates of the service sector gross value added for the period prior to the availability of official statistics (1955). These estimates are consistent with official statistics and those available for other economic sectors, which allows for long-term analysis of structural transformations of the economy. The purpose of this document is to present the methodological notes regarding the reconstruction and estimation of the service sector gross value added series, in order to make available to other researchers the criteria, methods and sources used in this research. |
| Keywords: | service sector, gross value added, Uruguay |
| JEL: | E01 E23 N16 |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-13-23&r=mac |
| By: | Rutledge, Zach; Richards, Timothy; Martin, Philip |
| Abstract: | Adverse Effect Wage Rates (AEWRs) are regional minimum wages paid to foreign employees working in the United States under the H-2A visa non-immigrant agricultural guest worker program. AEWRs were established as a mechanism to prevent US farmworkers from adverse effects due to the employment of foreign guest workers. However, AEWRs may have unintended consequences. We develop a simple theoretical framework to gain insights into how the AEWRs may influence the wages of non-H-2A farm employees. Our model predicts that higher AEWRs cause the wages of non-H-2A farm employees to rise through two channels: (i) a substitution effect and (ii) a market signalling effect, or “lighthouse effect, ” where non-H-2A employees use the AEWR as a benchmark to demand higher wages from employers. We test these hypotheses using a regression framework with data from the National Agricultural Workers Survey. Our estimates suggest that a 10% increase in the AEWR causes a three percent wage increase of non-H-2A farm employees across the nation and a five percent increase in the top five H-2A employment states where more than half the H-2A jobs are certified. We find that one-year AEWR freeze would reduce the growth of wages paid to US-based farm employees by about $500 million. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Farm Management, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2023–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:assa24:339074&r=mac |
| By: | Peter Baker (Center for Global Development); Lydia Regan (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | Since 2019, the UK’s strong reputation in global health has been undermined by a series of deep cuts and a distracting departmental reorganisation. 2024 may, however, represent a turning point, with new Foreign and Development Ministers, both with a strong track record on development, the implementation of a new development white paper, and a possible election which may bring a new government with new priorities. In this paper, we summarise the challenges and opportunities in global health on which the UK will need to act if it wishes to restore its reputation. We review UK global health aid expenditure data up to 2022, current UK global health policies, and major external global trends. We find that in 2018, the UK reported spending £2.17 billion (0.1 percent of Gross National Income (GNI)). By 2022, this fell to £1.73 billion (0.07 percent of GNI). If the UK had continued at 0.1 percent of GNI level, it would now have an additional £844 million to spend on global health annually. Bilateral programmes, Foreign Commonwealth & Development Office-managed aid programmes, and reproductive health programmes were particularly hard hit by the cuts. We identify three global trends that the UK must accommodate: an acute-on-chronic health financing crises in low- and middle-income countries; changing demographics, burden of disease, and increasing global threats; and the inadequacy of global health architecture. Finally, we recommend a five-point plan for the UK government to take forward: 1) Champion debt relief and “health taxes” to increase resources for health; 2) Support countries to strengthen health system efficiency; 3) Prioritise limited UK financing on key, measurable objectives in a few low-income countries. 4) Conduct a multilateral aid review that focuses on developing country priorities; and 5) Direct UK health system strengthening funding through the World Bank and long-term bilateral programmes. |
| Date: | 2023–11–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:314&r=mac |
| By: | Adrian Gheorghe (Center for Global Development); Sophie Gulliver (Center for Global Development); Abha Mehndiratta (Center for Global Development); Javier Guzman (Center for Global Development); Peter Baker (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | Rigorous, explicit, evidence-informed priority-setting (EIPS) in healthcare is an essential instrument for achieving value for money in Universal Health Coverage (UHC). Growing pressures on healthcare budgets, combined with the post-COVID-19 fiscal crises and a plateauing of development assistance for health, make institutionalising of EIPS a particularly critical and timely policy goal. We introduce iProSE—the iDSI Progression Scale for institutionalising EIPS in healthcare. iProSE is a self-assessment scale aiming to help countries understand how far they have progressed in institutionalising EIPS and what can be their future priorities and to help development partners better tailor their country support in this area. We propose an index resulting from the assessment of eight aspirational statements on EIPS: two statements relate to key spending decisions (“What health technologies to cover from public funds?” and “At what prices to procure health technologies from public funds?”), and six statements relate to enabling factors for institutionalising EIPS. Statements are scored on the basis of information available in official documents against the extent to which the statements fall on an implementation spectrum ranging from policy intention to full, systematic implementation. Based on the scored statements, EIPS institutionalisation can be categorised as Foundational, Breakthrough, Consolidating, or Mature. An example of application of iProSE is presented capturing India’s progress in moving from Breakthrough in 2016 to Consolidating in 2022. |
| Date: | 2023–03–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:286&r=mac |
| By: | Andrew Wainer (Independent consultant) |
| Abstract: | In 2022, as part of the IMF’s recent efforts to re-channel Special Drawing Rights, it created the Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST), facilitating the transfer of concessional finance from high- to lower-income countries for climate resilience and pandemic preparedness. It is the first new such facility following the polycrises of the early 2020s. Demand for the RST is strong and learning from its pilots can inform how future RST financing can be used most effectively. This research provides case studies of two RST pilots: Costa Rica and Rwanda. Lessons from the pilots are not only relevant for future RST recipients. The RST is operational, and therefore, uniquely worthy of analysis in terms of how additional financing—above and beyond the RST—can be effectively integrated. Our analysis finds that the RST is becoming the IMF’s de facto climate finance facility; is government-driven; is being awarded to countries with strong governance and climate credentials; and that authorities are banking on using the RST to attract additional climate finance. At the same time, the RST faces the challenges of being too small to confront climate resilience; has questionable priorities in terms of supporting climate over poverty reduction in low-income countries; is almost tripling the number of IMF program conditions some countries are facing; and is escalating IMF policy influence over governments in an area where the IMF has limited experiences. |
| Date: | 2023–07–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:301&r=mac |
| By: | Victoria Y. Fan (Center for Global Development); Eleni Smitham (Center for Global Development); Lydia Regan (Center for Global Development); Pratibha Gautam (Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health); Ole Norheim (University of Bergen and Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health); Javier Guzman (Center for Global Development); Amanda Glassman (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | Efforts in pandemic preparedness can be strategically guided by understanding the potential costs and benefits of interventions for surveillance, which we call the “best buys” of surveillance. This policy paper examines the state of knowledge on investing in the “best buys” of surveillance for pandemic preparedness and specifically for respiratory infections. We focus on respiratory infections because of their potential for global spread as well as the World Health Organization (WHO)’s Preparedness and Resilience for Emerging Threats (PRET) initiative initial focus on pandemics of respiratory pathogens. We conduct a rapid literature review to assess the state of knowledge on the costs and benefits of investing in four selected types of surveillance for respiratory infections (laboratory networks, sentinel surveillance, notifiable disease surveillance, and health facility event-based surveillance) considered as “core” surveillance by the WHO’s Mosaic Framework (which listed a total of ten types of surveillance). We discussed early results with an expert panel during a CGD roundtable discussion. Overall, cost data on surveillance programs remains very limited. Of the four types of surveillance examined, there are more studies reporting costs for sentinel surveillance than other types of surveillance. Studies did not standardize measures of effectiveness of surveillance, making comparisons across surveillance types challenging. The effectiveness of investments is not easily assessed before a pandemic, highlighting the need for rigorous, independent evaluation of the value and impact of preparedness investments (including for surveillance) on pandemic response. In order to inform future pandemic preparedness and response efforts, more knowledge is needed on the costs and effectiveness of surveillance of respiratory infections and related diseases. |
| Date: | 2023–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:298&r=mac |
| By: | Isabel Narbón-Perpiñá (Department of Business, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain); Maria Teresa Balaguer-Coll (Department of Finance and Accounting, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Diego Prior (Department of Business, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain); Emili Tortosa-Ausina (IVIE, Valencia and IIDL and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain) |
| Abstract: | When decentralized governments share the public budget, distributive policies are needed to allocate public goods and services among them. To date, however, both the theoretical and empirical evidence has largely examined the effect of political orientation on the quantity of transfers received, without considering how efficiently they are managed. This article aims to fill this gap by linking the literature on political alignment and transfers with work on public sector efficiency. Specifically, we examine how bureaucratic input choices might be related to political orientation and political sign, and how political coordination between local and higher levels of government could lead to inefficiencies due to clientelism, corrupt practices, or lack of transparency. Our results suggest that political alignment between local governments and higher-level governments may lead to a decrease in public sector efficiency, which is detrimental to distributive policies. |
| Keywords: | efficiency, local government, political alignment, provincial council, transfers |
| JEL: | C14 H11 H70 R15 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2023/08&r=mac |
| By: | Philipp Lergetporer (TU München); Katharina Wedel (ifo Institut); Katharina Werner (ifo Institut) |
| Abstract: | We study how beliefs about the automatability of workers' occupation affect labor-market expectations and willingness to participate in further training. In our representative online survey, respondents on average underestimate the automation risk of their occupation, especially those in high-automatability occupations. Randomized information about their occupations’ automatability increases respondents’ concerns about their professional future, and expectations about future changes in their work environment. The information also increases willingness to participate in further training, especially among respondents in highly automatable occupation (+five percentage points). This uptick substantially narrows the gap in willingness to train between those in high- and low-automatability occupations. |
| Keywords: | automation; further training; labor-market expectations; survey experiment; information; |
| JEL: | J24 O33 I29 D83 |
| Date: | 2023–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:488&r=mac |
| By: | Axel H. Börsch-Supan; Courtney Coile |
| Abstract: | The International Social Security (ISS) project compares the experiences of a dozen developed countries to study Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World. The project was launched in the mid 1990s and was motivated by decades of decline in the labor force participation rate of older men. The first phases of the project documented that social security program provisions can create powerful incentives for retirement that are strongly correlated with the labor force behavior of older workers. Since then, the dramatic decline in men’s labor force participation has been replaced by sharply rising participation rates. Older women’s participation has increased dramatically as well. This tenth phase of the International Social Security (ISS) Project is the third step in explaining rising participation at older ages. The first step investigated changes in health and education as potential causes and showed that they could not account for the extent of changes in labor force participation. As a second step, we documented that countries have undertaken numerous reforms of their social security programs, disability programs, and other public benefit programs available to older workers. We found that these reforms substantially reduced the implicit tax on work at older ages and that stronger financial incentives to work were positively correlated with labor force participation at older ages. In this volume, the third step of our analysis, we exploit the time-series and cross-national variation in the timing and extent of reforms of retirement incentives and employ micro-econometric methods in order to study whether the correlation between financial incentives and work at older ages is causal. |
| JEL: | J14 J26 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31979&r=mac |
| By: | Anqi Chen; Siyan Liu; Alicia H. Munnell |
| Abstract: | The share of older Americans with debt has been on the rise over the last several decades. Having debt, however, does not always signal financial fragility because debt can be used for various purposes. For example, households that take out a low-interest mortgage to buy a home, which typically appreciates in value, are likely making a savvy choice. In contrast, households that carry unpaid credit card balances could see their debt snowball, leading to financial distress. Identifying these distinctions in household debt situations is crucial to understanding the implications of the rise in debt holding among seniors. This brief, based on a new paper, addresses three key questions: 1) As more older households carry debt in retirement, what share are at “high-risk†and “low-risk†of financial hardship? 2) Is the growth in debt holding driven by the high- or low-risk households? and 3) What are the different types of high-risk households? The answers will help policymakers determine which types of borrowers are most vulnerable and develop tailored solutions for assisting them. The discussion proceeds as follows. The first section provides background on trends in debt holding among older Americans. The second section sorts households into high-risk and low-risk based on their debt and asset profiles, and it shows that high-risk borrowers are driving the growth in debt. The third section identifies four groups of high-risk borrowers with very different characteristics. Given the diverse situations of high-risk borrowers, the fourth section suggests some potential ways to address each group’s specific needs. The final section concludes that the debt burdens of high-risk borrowers are cause for concern, but a one-size-fits-all solution does not exist, so targeted interventions would be most effective. |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:issbrf:ib2023-20&r=mac |
| By: | Gagliardi, Luisa (Bocconi University); Moretti, Enrico (University of California, Berkeley); Serafinelli, Michel (University of Essex) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the employment consequences of deindustrialization for 1, 993 cities in France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Japan, and the United States. In all six countries we find a strong negative relationship between a city's share of manufacturing employment in the year of its country's manufacturing peak and the subsequent change in total employment, reflecting the fact that cities where manufacturing was initially more important experienced larger negative labor demand shocks. But in a significant number of cases, total employment fully recovered and even exceeded initial levels, despite the loss of manufacturing jobs. Overall, 34% of former manufacturing hubs–defined as cities with an initial manufacturing employment share in the top tercile–experienced employment growth faster than their country's mean, suggesting that a surprisingly large number of cities was able to adapt to the negative shock caused by deindustrialization. The U.S. has the lowest share, indicating that the U.S. Rust Belt communities have fared relatively worse compared to their peers in the other countries. We then seek to understand why some former manufacturing hubs recovered while others didn't. We find that deindustrialization had different effects on local employment depending on the initial share of college-educated workers in the labor force. While in the two decades before the manufacturing peak, cities with a high college share experienced a rate of employment growth similar to those with a low college share, in the decades after the manufacturing peak, the employment trends diverged: cities with a high college share experienced significantly faster employment growth. The divergence grows over time at an accelerating rate. Using an instrumental variable based on the driving distance to historical colleges and universities, we estimate that a one standard deviation increase in local college share results in a rate of employment growth per decade that is 9.1 percentage points higher. This effect is in part explained by faster growth in human capital-intensive services, which more than offsets the loss of manufacturing jobs. |
| Keywords: | manufacturing hubs, spatial heterogeneity, human capital |
| JEL: | J21 R12 J24 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16648&r=mac |
| By: | Olivia Bory Devisme (ENERGY Lab - Energy Lab - UR - Université de La Réunion); Pierre-Olivier Lucas de Peslouan (ENERGY Lab - Energy Lab - UR - Université de La Réunion); Frédéric Alicalapa (ENERGY Lab - Energy Lab - UR - Université de La Réunion); Denis Genon-Catalot (LCIS - Laboratoire de Conception et d'Intégration des Systèmes - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | Installation d'un nanoréseau CC (Courant Continu) pour l'étude des gains énergétiques dans le secteur tertiaire à La Réunion |
| Date: | 2023–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04326680&r=mac |
| By: | Yannick Vanhove (LGCgE - Laboratoire de Génie Civil et Géo-Environnement (LGCgE) - ULR 4515 - UA - Université d'Artois - Université de Lille - IMT Lille Douai - Ecole nationale supérieure Mines-Télécom Lille Douai - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - JUNIA - JUNIA - UCL - Université catholique de Lille); Chafika Djelal (LGCgE - Laboratoire de Génie Civil et Géo-Environnement (LGCgE) - ULR 4515 - UA - Université d'Artois - Université de Lille - IMT Lille Douai - Ecole nationale supérieure Mines-Télécom Lille Douai - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - JUNIA - JUNIA - UCL - Université catholique de Lille) |
| Abstract: | RILEM TC 266-MRP : Essais rhéologiques interlaboratoires à l'IUT de Béthune |
| Date: | 2023–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04326704&r=mac |
| By: | 岡室, 博之; 岡崎, 哲⼆; ⾼野, 佳佑 |
| Abstract: | 1950 年代前半の朝鮮特需は⽇本経済の戦後復興の原動⼒であったと⾔われるが、企業のミクロ データによる定量的な検証は未だ⾏われていない。経営史分野における事例研究が⾒られ る⼀⽅、地域中⼩企業の経営成果と地域の産業構造への影響を考察・分析する実証研究は 乏しい。そこで本研究は、⽇本有数の産業集積を擁する⼤阪府を対象として、産業集積の 内外にある府内企業への占領軍（在⽇⽶軍）による調達要求が朝鮮特需によってどのよう に変化し、それが地域中⼩企業の経営成果と地域の産業構造にどのような効果をもたらし たかを検証する。我々は国⽴公⽂書館所蔵の特別調達庁需品発注契約書情報（1946年 〜52年）をデータベース化し、独⾃に構築した「帝国銀⾏会社要録」や「⼤阪府商⼯名 録」のデータと接合し、集計と分析を⾏った。その結果は、朝鮮戦争勃発前後で⽶軍の発 注先の地域・業種分布が⼤きく変化したことを⽰す。また、⽶軍の発注先企業はその後、 ⼤阪府の近代化特別融資の対象になることが多く、特需には地域的な政策⽀援の呼び⽔効 果もあったと考えられる。 |
| Keywords: | 朝鮮特需, GHQ, ⼤阪, 産業構造, 地域企業 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:tdbcdp:j-2023-02&r=mac |
| By: | Schulz, Jessica |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fribpd:280331&r=mac |