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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Mamoon Kader (Department of Economics, Carleton University); Hashmat Khan (Department of Economics, Carleton University) |
| Abstract: | Are collateral shocks the dominant source of U.S. business cycles? We show that the evidence is not strong enough to conclude that they are. Collateral shocks, as described in Becard and Gauthier (2022), which tighten bank lending standards for both households and firms, account for only 7% of the cyclical variation in output, and 1% of consumption, over the period from 1985:Q1 to 2009:Q3. During this time, lending standards for both households and firms were most closely aligned in the data. Additionally, we observe a significant dampening in the comovement between consumption and output. Through counterfactual exercises, we isolate the role of estimated collateral shocks and model parameters to explain our findings. Our result suggests that identifying a quantitatively significant financial shock, which drives the U.S. business cycle and also accounts for consumption dynamics, remains a challenging task. |
| Keywords: | collateral shocks, bank lending standards, outputs, consumption |
| JEL: | E21 E23 E24 E32 E44 |
| Date: | 2023–12–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:car:carecp:23-08&r=mac |
| By: | Justine Guillochon; Julien Le Roux |
| Abstract: | The Global Financial Crisis highlighted the need for policymakers to consider the stage of the financial cycle to better evaluate the cyclical position of the economy when designing monetary policy decisions. If financial variables are omitted from the estimations of the output gap, a common and unobserved indicator of the business cycle, important financial or external imbalances that may lead to future recessions may not be captured. This paper presents a suite of estimates of output gaps incorporating financial variables. The estimates are based both on small unobserved components models and a large unobserved components model that follows a production function approach. The results show that exploiting the information content of financial variables, which co-move strongly with the output cycle, can sometimes improve the real-time estimates of the output gap. However, these improvements are of a limited magnitude and very sensitive to the choice of the chosen financial variables. |
| Keywords: | Output Gap, Potential Output, Financial Cycle, Monetary Policy, Unobserved Components Model. |
| JEL: | C32 E32 E44 E47 E52 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:926&r=mac |
| By: | Chao Gu (University of Missouri); Janet Hua Jiang (Bank of Canada); Liang Wang (University of Hawaii) |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of the firm's credit condition on labor market performance and the relationship between expected inflation and unemployment in a new monetarist model. Better credit condition improves labor market outcomes as fi rms save on their cash financing cost, improve pro tability, and create more vacancies. Inflation affects unemployment through two opposing channels. First, inflation increases the firm's fi nancing cost, which discourages job creation and increases unemployment. Second, inflation lowers wages through bargaining because unemployed workers more heavily rely on cash transactions and suffer more from inflation compared to employed workers. This encourages job creation. The overall effect of inflation on employment depends on the firm's credit condition. We calibrate the model to match U.S. data. The calibrated model suggests a downward-sloping Phillips curve with flexible wages. Finally, we fi nd that improvement in firm credit conditions is consistent with the flattening of the Phillips curve. |
| Keywords: | toxic assets, market freezes, negative returns, liquidity |
| JEL: | E24 E31 E44 E51 |
| Date: | 2023–12–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umc:wpaper:2314&r=mac |
| By: | Casey Pender (Department of Economics, Carleton University) |
| Abstract: | This paper reexamines the traditional view that all unanticipated deflation can lead to bank panics. I identify two distinct deflationary shocks by employing a sign-restricted VAR on U.S. National Banking era with monthly data for prices, real output, and bank panics. While a negative aggregate demand shock increases the likelihood of a bank panic by 3.4%-8.4%, a positive aggregate supply shock has no significant effect. My results, therefore, align with recent theoretical work arguing that deflation's impact on banking panics also hinges on real output dynamics. Hence, not all deflation is cause for panic. |
| Keywords: | Bank Panics, Deflation, U.S. Monetary History, Sign Restrictions |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E44 E50 N11 N21 |
| Date: | 2023–08–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:car:carecp:23-04&r=mac |
| By: | Kaas, Leo; Lalé, Etienne; Siassi, Nawid |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a macroeconomic model that combines an incomplete-markets overlapping-generations economy with a job ladder featuring sequential wage bargaining, endogenous search effort of employed and non-employed workers, and differences in match quality. The calibrated model offers a good fit to the empirical age profiles of search activity, job-finding rates, wages and savings, so that we use the model to examine the role of age and wealth for worker flows and for the consequences of job loss. We further analyze the impact of unemployment insurance and progressive taxation for labor market dynamics and aggregate economic activity via capital, employment and labor efficiency channels. Lower unemployment benefits or a less progressive tax schedule bring about welfare losses for a newborn worker household. |
| Keywords: | Search and matching, ob-to-job transitions, Incomplete markets, Overlapping generations, Wealth accumulation |
| JEL: | E21 E24 H24 J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tuweco:280694&r=mac |
| By: | Maurice Obstfeld |
| Abstract: | This paper surveys the decline in real interest rates in advanced and emerging economies over the past several decades, linking that process to a range of global factors that have operated with different force in different periods. The paper argues that estimates of long-run equilibrium real rates (r̄) may not always furnish an accurate guide to the rate appropriate for short-term monetary policy (r*). It argues further that effective monetary should consider not only equilibrium in the market for domestic goods, but also the current account balance, financial conditions (including capital flows), and imperfect policy credibility. Equilibrium long-term real interest rates have risen recently according to market indicators. However, the main underlying factors that have pushed real interest rates down since the 1980s and 1990s – notably demographic shifts, lower productivity growth, corporate market power, and safe asset demand relative to supply – do not appear poised to reverse strongly enough to drive a big and durable rise in global real interest rates over the coming years. Low equilibrium interest rates may well continue periodically to bedevil monetary policy and financial stability. |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E52 F36 N10 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31949&r=mac |
| By: | Miguel C. Herculano (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) |
| Abstract: | Financial conditions refer to the state of financial variables such as interest rates, share prices, house prices and exchange rates. If financial conditions in the economy are ‘loose’, they stimulate real economic activity, and if they are ‘tight’, economic activity is constrained. The implications of financial conditions for macroeconomic outcomes has motivated the development of financial conditions indices (FCIs) that summarise common movements in financial and macroeconomic data. In general, an FCI offers a gauge of how shifts in central bank policy and economic outlooks, including foreign financial condition shocks, are filtering out into the real world. A timely FCI would help the policy-maker assess, almost in real time, whether financial conditions in the economy are loose or tight. However, the development of a timely FCI is not a straightforward task because the data used to estimate it may be available at different frequencies – semi-annual or quarterly or weekly or daily intervals - and are also often incomplete. Financial data are available at ‘high frequencies’, that is, sometimes even at a daily or hourly frequency, but may be hampered by missing values. On the other hand, macroeconomic time series such as Gross Domestic Product, GDP, or household consumption are only available at quarterly frequencies. In this paper, Miguel Herculano constructs a monthly FCI for New Zealand, using novel estimation techniques that resolve problems posed by missing data, and also enable the use of data that are available at different time frequencies. Since the new FCI is timelier than other alternatives that are available only at a quarterly frequency, it makes it more appealing to policymakers. The new FCI summarises information from 73 relevant financial and macroeconomic variables that are available at either monthly or quarterly frequencies. Interest rate spreads and mortgage lending are found to be the most relevant contributors to the dynamics of the monthly FCI. Estimates suggest that changes in the FCI have exerted relatively stronger influences on the New Zealand business cycle in more recent years. The predictive content of the financial conditions index for forecasting GDP and unemployment is not explored in the current version of the paper and is left for future research. About the research programme The Reserve Bank carries out a wide range of research related to monetary policy. This research programme may or may not change our overall view of monetary policy- whether rates should be raised or cut and by how much. The Reserve Bank’s overarching aim is to promote the prosperity and well-being of all New Zealanders. With monetary policy, our core focus is to support full employment and low and stable inflation. Monetary policy remains an effective, but blunt, tool to achieve these goals |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2022/1&r=mac |
| By: | Aleksandr Arsenev (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Philipp Heimberger (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Bernhard Schütz (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Spending elasticities measure the reaction of different government spending components to the business cycle. They are important inputs for fiscal forecasts, and they are particularly relevant in the context of European Union (EU) fiscal rules, as elasticity estimates enter the estimation of fiscal space. This paper analyses the sensitivity of the estimation method used by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the European Commission to obtain government spending elasticities by focusing on 11 EU countries in the 1995-2020 period. Our results suggest that spending elasticities are sensitive to small variations in data and model specification. For most EU countries, we reject the assumption that only unemployment spending responds to cyclical variations. While unemployment spending is indeed a major driver of counter-cyclical social spending, other categories of social spending also show signs of responding to the business cycle. |
| Keywords: | Government debt; fiscal deficit; fiscal rules; budget elasticity; government spending; social spending |
| JEL: | E62 H62 E32 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:238&r=mac |
| By: | Oleg Itskhoki; Dmitry Mukhin |
| Abstract: | We develop a general policy analysis framework for an open economy that features nominal rigidities and financial frictions giving rise to endogenous PPP and UIP deviations. The efficient allocation can be implemented with monetary policy closing the output gap and FX interventions eliminating UIP deviations. When the “natural” real exchange rate is stable, both goals can be achieved solely by monetary policy that fixes the exchange rate — an open-economy divine coincidence. More generally, optimal policy features a managed float/crawling peg complemented with FX forward guidance and macroprudential accumulation of FX reserves, in line with the “fear of floating” observed in the data. Capital controls are not necessary to achieve the frictionless allocation, but they facilitate the extraction of rents in the currency market. Constrained unilateral policies are not optimal from the global perspective, and international cooperation features a complementary use of FX interventions across countries. |
| JEL: | F30 F40 G10 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31933&r=mac |
| By: | Frédéric Dufourt (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France); Kazuo Nishimura (RIEB, Kobe University, Kobe, Japan); Alain Venditti (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France) |
| Abstract: | When can exogenous changes in beliefs generate endogenous fluctuations in rational expectation models? We analyze this question in the canonical one-sector and two-sector models of the business cycle with increasing returns to scale. A key feature of our analysis is that we express the uniqueness/multiplicity condition of equilibirum paths in terms of restrictions on five critical and economically interpretable parameters: the Frisch elasticities of the labor supply curve with respect to the real wage and to the marginal utility of wealth, the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption, the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor, and the degree of increasing returns to scale. We obtain two clear-cut conclusions: belief-driven fluctuations cannot exist in the one-sector version of the model for empirically consistent values for these five parameters. By contrast, belief-driven fluctuations are a robust property of the twosector version of the model-with differentiated consumption and investment goods-, as they now emerge for a wide range of parameter values consistent with available empirical estimates. The key ingredients explaining these different outcomes are factor reallocation between sectors and the implied variations in the relative price of investment, affecting the expected return on capital accumulation. |
| Keywords: | belief-driven business cycles, endogenous fluctuations, expectations, income effect |
| JEL: | C62 E32 O41 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2327&r=mac |
| By: | NAKAJIMA, Jouchi |
| Abstract: | This study develops a regime-switching Phillips curve model to estimate trend inflation. Extending the earlier work, we allow trend inflation, the slope of the Phillips curve, and the oil price pass-through rate to follow a regime-switching process. An empirical analysis using Japan’s consumer price index illustrates that including the oil price and its time-varying passthrough rate improves the model’s ability to forecast inflation. The empirical results also show that the obtained trend inflation highly correlates with firms’ inflation expectations. |
| Keywords: | Inflation expectations, Oil prices, Phillips curve, Regime-switching model, Trend inflation |
| JEL: | C22 E31 E42 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:750&r=mac |
| By: | Pianta, Mario |
| Abstract: | In order to understand the rise and fall of inflation of 2022-2023, new theories and analytical frameworks are needed, closely connected the profound changes in monetary and fiscal policies that have accompanied the wave of price increases. This paper proposes a view of inflation as a set of distributive conflicts, develops a set of conceptual tools, reviews the recent empirical evidence and discusses policy responses. The rise of inflation was set in motion by the production distortions that emerged at the end of the covid-19 pandemic and by major rises in energy prices, accelerated by the start of the Ukraine war. Price rises then spread throughtout the economy, due to business search for higher profits. Price levels are now stabilizing at a significantly higher level, with lasting consequences on income distribution, the purchasing power of wages, and financial values. Facing inflation, economic policies have experienced a major turn, with monetary authorities in the United States and Europe turning to restrictive policies. The macroeconomic outlook, the trajectories of structural change, the distribution of income and the dynamics of finance are deeply affected by the new context; possible policy alternative, with a more coordinated framework for public action, are discussed in the conclusions of the paper. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, income distribution, finance, economic policies |
| JEL: | E31 E51 E61 E64 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119345&r=mac |
| By: | Sangyup Choi; Tim Willems; Seung Yong Yoo |
| Abstract: | Combining industry-level data on output and prices with novel monetary policy shock estimates for 102 countries, we analyze how the effects of monetary policy vary with industry characteristics. Next to being interesting in their own right, our findings are informative on the importance of various transmission mechanisms, as they are thought to vary systematically with the included characteristics. Results suggest that monetary policy has greater output effects in industries featuring assets that are more difficult to collateralize or consisting of smaller firms, consistent with the credit channel, followed by industries producing durables, as predicted by the interest rate channel. The credit channel is stronger during bad times as well as in countries with lower levels of financial development, in line with financial accelerator logic. We do not find support for the cost channel of monetary policy, and only limited support for a channel running via exports. Our database (containing monetary policy shock estimates for 176 countries) may be of independent interest to researchers. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy transmission, industry growth, financial frictions, heterogeneity in transmission, monetary policy shocks |
| JEL: | E32 E52 F43 G20 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2023-64&r=mac |
| By: | Jongrim Ha (World Bank, Prospects Group); M. Ayhan Kose (World Bank, Prospects Group; Brookings Institution; CEPR, and CAMA); Franziska Ohnsorge (World Bank, South Asia Region, CEPR, and CAMA); Hakan Yilmazkuday (Florida International University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the drivers of fluctuations in global inflation, defined as a common factor across monthly headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation in G7 countries, over the past half-century. We estimate a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model where a wide range of shocks, including global demand, supply, oil price, and interest rate shocks, are identified through narrative sign restrictions motivated by the predictions of a simple dynamic general equilibrium model. We report three main results. First, oil price shocks followed by global demand shocks explained the lion’s share of variation in global inflation. Second, the contribution of global demand and oil price shocks increased over time, from 56 percent during 1970-1985 to 65 percent during 2001-2022, whereas the importance of global supply shocks declined. Since the pandemic, global demand and oil price shocks have accounted for most of the variation in global inflation. Finally, oil price shocks played a much smaller role in global core CPI inflation variation, for which global supply shocks were the main source of variation. These results are robust to various sensitivity exercises, including alternative definitions of global variables, different samples of countries, and additional narrative restrictions. |
| Keywords: | Oil prices; demand shocks; supply shocks; interest rate shocks. |
| JEL: | E31 E32 Q43 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:2310&r=mac |
| By: | Rezk Ernesto |
| Abstract: | Argentina is being subject to periods of long lasting high inflation (also known as chronic inflation), in which stabilisation plans, based upon different tools (e.g.use of interest rates or monetary aggregates) fell short of being successful and various explanations were resorted io for explaining failed experiences; in this connection, whereas in some cases the blame was put on fiscal policies favouring high fiscal deficits and excessive money printing, there were also explanations seeking the cause for inflation on supply rigidities as well as on oligopolist behaviours by determined economic agents, let alone some natural causes. In trying to more precisely enquire over this long lasting problem in Argentina, as well as on the reasons for stabilisation plans´ poor performance in Argentina, the paper includes an anylisis of stylized facts during four presidential terms (period 2007-2019) based upon the theoretical content of G. Calvo´s seminal paper "Fighting Chronic Inflation with Interest Rates". |
| JEL: | E58 E63 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4689&r=mac |
| By: | Karsten O. Chipeniuk; Gulnara Nolan (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the effect of monetary policy shocks on the distribution of wealth using a stylised model of the New Zealand economy. We find that a 50 basis point reduction in the OCR leads to a more equal distribution of wealth in the economy – with the Gini coefficient falling by approximately 0.5 percentage points. This drop occurs gradually and reaches its trough after 5 quarters, remaining persistently lower thereafter. NB. The key missing channel in the model used in this Analytical Note is asset prices, which may also change following a monetary policy shock - this is the portfolio composition (capital gains) channel, which will be investigated in future work. In New Zealand there has been a sharp increase in house prices over the past 18 months, in part due to lower mortgage interest rates. This research aims to take initial steps in analysing the distributional implications of low interest rates by building a macroeconomic model that captures changes in savings and income flows of different households. The version of the model used in this note does not yet capture the impact of capital gains, but future versions will aim to cast more light on asset prices. About the research programme: The Reserve Bank is carrying out a wide range of research about the different ways changes in interest rates could affect the distribution of wealth and income in New Zealand. Each research paper is aimed at giving the bank (and other decision-makers) parts of the jigsaw puzzle, to help our understanding, rather than a complete picture all at once. |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzb:nzbans:2022/01&r=mac |
| By: | Anton Nakov (ECB and CEPR); Carlos Thomas (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | We study the implications of climate change and the associated mitigation measures for optimal monetary policy in a canonical New Keynesian model with climate externalities. Provided they are set at their socially optimal level, carbon taxes pose no trade-offs for monetary policy: it is both feasible and optimal to fully stabilize inflation and the welfare-relevant output gap. More realistically, if carbon taxes are initially suboptimal, trade-offs arise between core and climate goals. These trade-offs however are resolved overwhelmingly in favor of price stability, even in scenarios of decades-long transitions to optimal carbon taxation. This reflects the untargeted, inefficient nature of (conventional) monetary policy as a climate instrument. In a model extension with financial frictions and central bank purchases of corporate bonds, we show that green tilting of purchases is optimal and accelerates the green transition. However, its effect on CO2 emissions and global temperatures is limited by the small size of eligible bonds’ spreads. |
| Keywords: | Ramsey optimal monetary policy, climate change externalities, Pigouvian carbon taxes, green QE |
| JEL: | E31 E32 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2334&r=mac |
| By: | Marcos Chamon (IMF); Francisco Roldán (IMF) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effect of uncertainty about the nature of output costs of sovereign default on debt tolerance. While the theoretical literature assumes output losses lasting until market access is restored, the empirical evidence points to persistent effects, and output may not return to its pre-default trend. We include such uncertainty in a model of sovereign default and find that it can significantly boost equilibrium debt levels. We also consider a government which is averse to this type of uncertainty and seeks robust decision rules. We calibrate the model to match evidence on the output trajectory around debt restructuring episodes and infer output costs of about the size found in the empirical literature, alongside significant uncertainty about their permanence and a strong desire for robustness. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign debt, default, debt tolerance, permanent costs, robustness |
| JEL: | E43 E44 F34 H63 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:296&r=mac |
| By: | Diego Nicolau Rodriguez; Cláudio Tavares de Alencar |
| Abstract: | Este artigo investiga os reflexos da metodologia POC (Percentual de Completude de Obra) nas empresas de capital aberto brasileiras no segmento de Real Estate durante o periodo de 2008 a 2018. A metodologia POC e amplamente utilizada para a contabilizacao de receitas em empreendimentos imobiliarios, mas a sua aplicacao pode gerar impactos significativos nos resultados financeiros das empresas. Por meio de uma analise exploratoria, foram investigadas as influencias e consequencias da metodologia POC nas empresas de capital aberto brasileiras no segmento de Real Estate. Os resultados mostram que a aplicacao da metodologia POC pode levar a distorcoes na contabilizacao de receitas, especialmente em empreendimentos de longo prazo. Alem disso, a utilizacao inadequada da metodologia pode levar a impactos significativos na avaliacao de desempenho das empresas, na analise de indicadores financeiros e na tomada de decisao dos investidores. A analise se mantem atual pela o oficio Curricular da CVM que manteve os padroes de contabilidade com as exigencias de Performance e controles internos da Empresa. |
| Keywords: | Accounting in Real Estate companies; Análise de resultados; Balance sheet; Balancete; Balanço; Contabilidade de empresas de Real Estate; DRE; Income Statement; PoC; Receita; Results Analysis; revenue |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lre:wpaper:lares-2023-4dqc&r=mac |
| By: | Miller, Ben (CDA Collaborative Learning); Rettberg, Angelika (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | Este artículo examina el impacto del complejo entorno de Medellín, una ciudad de 2, 5 millones de habitantes, en las pequeñas y medianas empresas (PYMEs) locales, donde coexisten la actividad económica formal e informal, así como actores legales e ilegales. Aunque las PYMEs superan en número a las grandes empresas, operan a una escala menor y presentan características organizacionales más informales y menos prominentes en el ámbito público. La necesidad de responder colectivamente a la violencia es crucial para estas empresas, pero la organización de acciones conjuntas puede ser un desafío. Con base en una revisión de los documentos oficiales, bibliografía académica, visitas de campo y 39 entrevistas, desarrollamos una tipología de tres partes sobre las respuestas de las PYME ante los actores violentos: aquiescencia, elusión y mitigación. El estudio propone que la mayoría de las PYMEs en Medellín se han adaptado a las complejidades de la legalidad, ilegalidad, formalidad y violencia, empleando estrategias como aquiescencia, elusión y mitigación frente a actores violentos. Se destaca que aunque la cooperación con actores ilegales puede garantizar la viabilidad a corto plazo, plantea desafíos a largo plazo para el empoderamiento, fortalecimiento institucional y desarrollo económico inclusivo de las comunidades. En última instancia, el artículo sugiere que algunas estrategias de las PYME son más efectivas que otras para su supervivencia y crecimiento en entornos violentos. |
| Keywords: | Medellín; PYME; violencia urbana; extorsión; criminalidad |
| JEL: | K14 K40 R00 |
| Date: | 2023–12–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:020999&r=mac |
| By: | Goller, Daniel (University of Bern); Gschwendt, Christian (University of Bern); Wolter, Stefan C. (University of Bern) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we show the causal influence of the launch of generative AI in the form of ChatGPT on the search behavior of young people for apprenticeship vacancies. There is a strong and long-lasting decline in the intensity of searches for vacancies, which suggests great uncertainty among the affected cohort. Analyses based on the classification of occupations according to tasks, type of cognitive requirements, and the expected risk of automation to date show significant differences in the extent to which specific occupations are affected. Occupations with a high proportion of cognitive tasks, with high demands on language skills, and those whose automation risk had previously been assessed by experts as lower are significantly more affected by the decline. However, no differences can be found with regard to the proportion of routine vs. non-routine tasks. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, occupational choice, labor supply, technological change |
| JEL: | J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16638&r=mac |
| By: | Hallak Juan Carlos |
| Abstract: | A pesar de su abundancia de recursos naturales, la posibilidad de que Argentina logre un crecimiento económico sostenido depende en gran medida de que pueda diversificar su estructura de exportaciones hacia bienes con mayor diferenciación y valor agregado. Sin embargo, los últimos 15 años no han mostrado avances en esa dirección. Las exportaciones reales (netas de precios) del país están estancadas y se concentran persistentemente en un reducido número de commodities, mientras que el número de exportadores es un tercio menor al de su máximo en 2006. Este trabajo describe en detalle este magro desempeño y analiza sus causas, entre las que se destacan la persistente inestabilidad macroeconómica y una política comercial fuertemente restrictiva. De todas formas, también es causa del estancamiento exportador la falta de una decidida orientación pro-exportadora de políticas, que permita aprovechar las oportunidades de inserción internacional a partir de una mayor diferenciación de producto que existen en el agro, la industria y los servicios basados en conocimiento. El trabajo desarrolla en profundidad el contenido de dicha orientación, considerando las políticas que lo componen y la necesidad de coordinar su implementación en el marco de estrategias sectoriales de inserción internacional. |
| JEL: | F1 O10 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4659&r=mac |
| By: | Céline Vial (La Jumenterie du Pin [IFCE] - IFCE - Institut Français du Cheval et de l'Equitation [Saumur] - Institut Français du Cheval et de l'Equitation, UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Camille Eslan (FFE - Fédération Française d'Equitation, La Jumenterie du Pin [IFCE] - IFCE - Institut Français du Cheval et de l'Equitation [Saumur] - Institut Français du Cheval et de l'Equitation, UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Sandrine Costa (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | De nombreux pratiquants d'équitation quittent les structures professionnelles pour s'auto-organiser, seuls ou à plusieurs. Il est nécessaire de mieux connaître ces usagers « hors structure » afin de répondre aux enjeux sanitaires, sécuritaires, réglementaires, économiques, sociaux et environnementaux qui leurs sont liés. Ainsi, plusieurs fiches sur le thème général du « hors structure », issues de travaux de recherche financés par la FFE, l'IFCE et l'INRAE, présenteront ces différents enjeux. Cette présente fiche fournit divers chiffres clés relatifs au « hors structure ». |
| Keywords: | Auto-organisation, Hors structure, Offre de service, équitation, Loisir équestre, Données chiffrées |
| Date: | 2023–11–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04318047&r=mac |
| By: | Manu Navjeevan |
| Abstract: | I propose a new identification-robust test for the structural parameter in a heteroskedastic linear instrumental variables model. The proposed test statistic is similar in spirit to a jackknife version of the K-statistic and the resulting test has exact asymptotic size so long as an auxiliary parameter can be consistently estimated. This is possible under approximate sparsity even when the number of instruments is much larger than the sample size. As the number of instruments is allowed, but not required, to be large, the limiting behavior of the test statistic is difficult to examine via existing central limit theorems. Instead, I derive the asymptotic chi-squared distribution of the test statistic using a direct Gaussian approximation technique. To improve power against certain alternatives, I propose a simple combination with the sup-score statistic of Belloni et al. (2012) based on a thresholding rule. I demonstrate favorable size control and power properties in a simulation study and apply the new methods to revisit the effect of social spillovers in movie consumption. |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2311.14892&r=mac |
| By: | Karpowitz, Christopher F. (Brigham Young University); O'Connell, Stephen D. (Emory University); Preece, Jessica (Brigham Young University); Stoddard, Olga B. (Brigham Young University) |
| Abstract: | Policies that increase women's representation often intend to provide women with influence over processes and decisions of the organization in which they are implemented. This paper studies the effect of gender composition and leadership on women's influence in two field experiments. Our first study finds that male-majority teams accord disproportionately less influence to women and are less likely to choose women to represent the team externally. We then replicate this finding in a new context and with a larger sample. To investigate the relationship between formal leadership and women's influence and authority, the second study also varied the gender of an assigned team leader. We find that a female leader substantially increases women's influence, even in male-majority teams. With a model of discriminatory voting, we show that either increasing the share of women or assigning a female leader reduces the rate at which individual teammates discriminate against women by more than 50%. These conditions both increase the influence of women and improve women's experience in work teams by creating an institutional environment that reduces the expression of discriminatory behavior at the individual level. |
| Keywords: | gender, field experiment |
| JEL: | J16 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16625&r=mac |
| By: | Kleemann, Aldo |
| Abstract: | Täuschung und Medienmanipulation sind seit jeher fester Bestandteil der Kriegskommunikation. Nie zuvor aber war es derart einfach, qualitativ hochwertige Fälschungen von Ton-, Bild- und Videoaufzeichnungen zu erstellen. Die menschliche Neigung, emotional auf diese Medien zu reagieren, eröffnet deren Produzenten eine völlig neue Dimension des Missbrauchs. Mit einem Kapitulationsaufruf von Präsident Selenskyj, der umgehend als Deepfake entlarvt wurde, liegt der erste Versuch eines Einsatzes der neuen Technologie in einem bewaffneten Konflikt vor. Derartige Fälschungen werden immer besser, die Erkennung immer aufwendiger und ein Ende dieser Entwicklung ist nicht absehbar. Ein Verbot von Deepfakes ist aussichtslos. Es ist deshalb Zeit, sich mit den aktuellen und potentiellen Anwendungsfällen und mit möglichen Gegenstrategien auseinanderzusetzen. |
| Keywords: | Deepfake, Fälschung, Medienmanipulation, Desinformation, Propaganda, hybride Bedrohung, Künstliche Intelligenz, Generative Adversarial Network, GAN, Generator, Diskriminator, deep learning, Special Operations Command, Content-Authenticity-Initiative, Zentrum Operative Kommunikation |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:279918&r=mac |
| By: | Céline Vial (La Jumenterie du Pin [IFCE] - IFCE - Institut Français du Cheval et de l'Equitation [Saumur] - Institut Français du Cheval et de l'Equitation, UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Camille Eslan (FFE - Fédération Française d'Equitation, La Jumenterie du Pin [IFCE] - IFCE - Institut Français du Cheval et de l'Equitation [Saumur] - Institut Français du Cheval et de l'Equitation, UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Sandrine Costa (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | De nombreux pratiquants d'équitation quittent les structures professionnelles pour s'auto-organiser, seuls ou à plusieurs. Il est nécessaire de mieux connaître ces usagers « hors structure » afin de répondre aux enjeux sanitaires, sécuritaires, réglementaires, économiques, sociaux et environnementaux qui leurs sont liés. Ainsi, plusieurs fiches sur le thème général du « hors structure », issues de travaux de recherche financés par la FFE, l'IFCE et l'INRAE, présenteront ces différents enjeux. Cette présente fiche aborde le sous-thème des besoins de ces usagers et des services actuellement utilisés. |
| Keywords: | équitation, Loisir équestre, Auto-organisation, Hors structure |
| Date: | 2023–11–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04318012&r=mac |
| By: | Maihold, Günther; Zilla, Claudia |
| Abstract: | Mit dem Gipfel am 17. und 18. Juli in Brüssel endet nach acht Jahren eine lange Unterbrechung der biregionalen Treffen zwischen der EU und der Gemeinschaft der Lateinamerikanischen und Karibischen Staaten (CELAC). Zwischen 1999 und 2015 fanden alle zwei bzw. drei Jahre Konferenzen statt. Seit der letzten Konferenz haben sich sowohl das internationale Umfeld als auch der regionale Kontext auf beiden Seiten des Atlantiks stark verändert. Mit der Rückkehr Brasiliens in die CELAC und den Bemühungen der neuen Regierung Lula um eine Reaktivierung der Union Südamerikanischer Nationen (UNASUR) hat die Region neue Impulse erhalten, die sich bei den jeweiligen Gipfeltreffen der beiden Organisationen im Januar in Buenos Aires und im Mai in Brasília manifestierten. Im Juni hat die Europäische Kommission eine neue Agenda für die Beziehungen der EU mit Lateinamerika und der Karibik (LAC) vorgelegt, aus der deutlich wird, dass Europa die biregionale Zusammenarbeit intensivieren will. Dies hat dann Aussicht auf Erfolg, wenn die Gipfeldiplomatie nicht im Sinne einer Wiederbelebung, sondern im Geiste einer Erneuerung aufgenommen und mit substantieller thematischer Kooperation und vitalen bilateralen Beziehungen verbunden wird. |
| Keywords: | EU, Gemeinschaft der Lateinamerikanischen und Karibischen Staaten (CELAC), Union Südamerikanischer Nationen (UNASUR) |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:279917&r=mac |
| By: | Alfonso Santiago Novales Cinca (Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE), Universidad Complutense de Madrid (Spain).) |
| Abstract: | This work examines the key indicators for comparing the progress of the Spanish economy in recent years. A systematic and progressive decline in per capita income in comparison to EU countries is observed, which is likely not independent of the constant weakness in private investment in equipment, the scarcity of resources allocated to R&D, and consequently, the limited success in innovation. Subsequently, some institutional aspects that lead to a loss of social confidence are analyzed, hindering the reversal of the aforementioned economic trends and preventing the Spanish economy from evolving along a definitive path of progress. |
| Abstract: | El trabajo examina los principales indicadores para comparar el progreso de la economía española en los últimos años. Se detecta una pérdida sistemática y progresiva de renta per cápita respecto de los países de la UE, que seguramente no es independiente de la constante debilidad de la inversión privada en equipos, de la escasez de recursos destinados a I+D+I y, consiguientemente, del reducido éxito en innovación. A continuación, se analizan algunos aspectos institucionales que generan una pérdida de confianza social, dificultando el cambio de tendencia en los aspectos económicos mencionados, e impidiendo que la economía española evolucione en una definitiva línea de progreso. |
| Keywords: | Growth; Productivity; Innovation; Public policies; Public-private collaboration. |
| JEL: | O40 O00 E02 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:doicae:2307&r=mac |
| By: | Guy Lacroix; Steeve Marchand; William Arbour |
| Abstract: | In Quebec, offenders sentenced to more than six months are eligible for parole once they have served one-third of their sentence. About half of eligible offenders choose to waive their right to attend a parole hearing. Why? Based on robust and innovative empirical strategies and a rich body of data on thousands of offenders in Quebec, the authors identify the key determinants of the choice to waive the right to attend a parole hearing. Their analyses reveal that renunciation is strongly influenced by the individual characteristics of the inmate, its criminogenic profile and the nature of the crime committed. The study also shows that inmates who give up a hearing would have had more conditions to meet than those who were actually released on conditions. The authors are also interested in the causal effect of parole on criminal recidivism by focusing on the recidivism of individuals “on the margins”, that is, individuals for which the granting of release was primarily determined by the history of the decisions of the members before whom they were to appear. For these individuals, parole reduces both the current and future incarceration time of these individuals, while reducing the likelihood of reoffending within five years of their release. While there is a growing body of evidence suggesting that parole can prevent reoffending, we know very little about the contexts in which it is appropriate and the practices of release that ensure success. This study is the only study conducted in Quebec that provides a thorough understanding of the mechanisms at work and draws strong conclusions. The study is based on exclusive administrative data from the Department of Public Safety over 10 years and multivariate regression and machine learning methods. Au Québec, les contrevenants condamnés à plus de six mois sont admissibles à la libération conditionnelle une fois qu’ils ont purgé un tiers de leur peine d’incarcération. Or, environ la moitié des contrevenants admissibles choisissent de renoncer à leur droit de se présenter à une audience pour libération conditionnelle. Pourquoi ? En s’appuyant sur des stratégies empiriques robustes et novatrices et un riche ensemble de données sur des milliers de contrevenants au Québec, les auteurs identifient les principaux déterminants du choix de renoncer au droit de se présenter à une audience pour libération conditionnelle. Leurs analyses révèlent que la renonciation est fortement influencée par les caractéristiques individuelles du détenu, son profil criminogène et la nature du crime commis. L’étude montre également que les détenus qui renoncent à une audience auraient vraisemblablement eu davantage de conditions à respecter que ceux qui ont été effectivement libérés sous conditions. Les auteurs s’intéressent aussi à l’effet causal de la libération conditionnelle sur la récidive criminelle en focalisant sur la récidive des individus « à la marge », c’est-à-dire les individus pour lesquels l’octroi de la libération était surtout déterminé par l’historique des décisions des commissaires devant lesquels ils devaient se présenter. Pour ces individus, la libération conditionnelle permet de réduire à la fois le temps d'incarcération actuel et futur de ces individus, tout en diminuant la probabilité de récidive dans les cinq années suivant leur libération. Bien qu’il y ait de plus en plus de données probantes suggérant que la libération conditionnelle peut prévenir la récidive, on connait mal les contextes dans lesquels elle est appropriée et les pratiques de libération qui garantissent son succès. Cette étude est la seule étude menée au Québec qui fournit une compréhension approfondie des mécanismes à l’œuvre et permet de tirer des conclusions robustes. L’étude s’appuie sur des données administratives exclusives provenant du ministère de la Sécurité publique sur plus de dix ans et sur les méthodes de régressions multivariées et d'apprentissage automatique. |
| Keywords: | Criminal recidivism, Parole, Multivariate regressions, Machine learning, Récidive criminelle, Libération conditionnelle, Régressions multivariées, Apprentissage automatique |
| Date: | 2023–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirpro:2023rp-26&r=mac |
| By: | Zuchowski, David |
| Abstract: | Does pro-immigrant legislation improve financial inclusion? This paper examines how granting safe havens for immigrants impacts Hispanics' financial behavior and discrimination against them in the U.S. mortgage market. To identify the effect, I take advantage of the staggered implementation of sanctuary policies across counties between 2010 and 2021. Using an event study approach, I find that sanctuary policies increase the demand for mortgages among Hispanics. I also find evidence of a decrease in the rejection rates of mortgage loans requested by Hispanics in counties that implemented sanctuary policies. Politically volatile and Republican-leaning states are the main drivers of the reduction in this potential discriminatory behavior. Taken together, the findings underscore the importance of inclusive public policies in promoting financial inclusion of immigrants. |
| Abstract: | Fördern immigrantenfreundliche Gesetze die finanzielle Inklusion? Diese Studie untersucht, wie die Gewährung von sicheren Zufluchtsorten für Immigranten das Finanzverhalten von Hispanics und die Diskriminierung gegen sie auf dem US-amerikanischen Hypothekenmarkt beeinflusst. Um den Effekt zu identifizieren, mache ich Gebrauch von der zeitlich gestaffelten Einführung sogenannter Sanctuary Policies in den Kreisen in den USA zwischen 2010 und 2021. Mit Hilfe eines Ereignisstudienansatzes komme ich zu dem Ergebnis, dass Sanctuary Policies die Nachfrage nach Hypotheken unter Hispanics erhöhen. Es gibt auch Hinweise auf eine Verringerung der Ablehnungsquoten von Hypothekenanträgen von Hispanics in Kreisen, die Sanctuary Policies umgesetzt haben. Kreise in politisch instabilen und republikanisch geprägten Bundesstaaten sind die Haupttreiber der Reduzierung dieses potenziell diskriminierenden Verhaltens. Insgesamt unterstreichen die Ergebnisse die Bedeutung von inklusiven Gesetzen zur Förderung der finanziellen Integration von Einwanderern. |
| Keywords: | Sanctuary policies, immigration policy, mortgages, financial inclusion |
| JEL: | G21 J15 J68 K37 R21 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:280425&r=mac |
| By: | Dieter Verhaest; Stijn Baert (-) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of participation in physical and mental exercise activities on hirability. Besides by comparing both forms of exercising, we innovate against the existing literature by comparing their impact between different types of jobs, where other effects could be expected. To this end, an audit experiment is conducted in which we send 2184 fictitious applications of young job seekers to real job vacancies. On average, the estimated effect of both physical and mental exercise activities is small and statistically insignificant. However, the effect of participation in any exercise activity is significantly positive for jobs combining low cognitive with low physical demands. These findings are not consistent with the common consideration of physical exercise activities being used by employers as signals of physical fitness and appearance. |
| Keywords: | sports, mental fitness, skills, employment, field experiments |
| JEL: | J24 J63 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:23/1080&r=mac |
| By: | Turki Rashed Alshammari (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine, UHB - University of Hafr Al Batin [Saudi Arabia]); Jean-Noël Ory (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - UL - Université de Lorraine) |
| Abstract: | Although many papers have examined the Saudi stock market, to date none have explored the influence of religiosity on the behavior of stock prices, taking into account the dominance of individual investors. These characteristics distinguish the Saudi stock market from other mature and immature markets. Therefore, we study the reaction of the Saudi stock market to announcements by imams regarding firms' sharia compliance, using a two-step procedure. First, we distribute a questionnaire to gauge individual opinions about imams' announcements. Then, we conduct an appropriate event-study to capture the potential abnormal returns. Our findings indicate that imams' announcements convey valuable information to the stock market. |
| Keywords: | Abnormal returns, Event study, Individual Investors, Islamic Finance |
| Date: | 2023–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04105704&r=mac |