nep-mac New Economics Papers
on Macroeconomics
Issue of 2023‒11‒13
twenty-one papers chosen by
Daniela Cialfi, Universita' di Teramo

  1. Labor Market Dynamics with Sorting By Schulz, Bastian
  2. On the Negatives of Negative Interest Rates By Aleksander Berentsen; Romina Ruprecht; Hugo van Buggenum
  3. The Covid-19 Recession in Germany: A Macropidemiological Analysis By Krause, Willi; Costa, Luís; Costa Filho, João Ricardo
  4. Evaluating Policy Institutions -150 Years of US Monetary Policy- By Régis Barnichon; Geert Mesters
  5. Redesigning the eNaira central bank digital currency (CBDC) for payments and macroeconomic effectiveness By Ozili, Peterson K
  6. Professional Survey Forecasts and Expectations in DSGE Models By Yuliya Rychalovska; Sergey Slobodyan; Rafael Wouters
  7. Consumers’ Macroeconomic Expectations By Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael J.
  8. A robust model for the term structure of interest rates: some applications in Colombia By Wilmar Alexander Cabrera-Rodríguez; Daniela Rodríguez-Novoa; Camilo Eduardo Sánchez-Quinto
  9. State-Dependency in Price Adjustments: Evidence from Large Shocks By Elif Feyza Özcan Kodaz; Serdar Yürek
  10. A time-varying finance-led model for U.S. business cycles By Marcio Santetti
  11. Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Implications for Income and Wealth Inequality By Dusan Stojanovic
  12. The societal costs of inflation and unemployment By Popova, Olga; See, Sarah Grace; Nikolova, Milena; Otrachshenko, Vladimir
  13. Mr Putin and the chronicle of a normalisation foretold By Chadha, Jagjit S.
  14. The liquidity state-dependence of monetary policy transmission By Guimaraes, Rodrigo; Pinter, Gabor; Wijnandts, Jean-Charles
  15. Downward Rigidity in the Wage for New Hires By Hazell, Jonathon; Taska, Bledi
  16. Asset Bubbles and Credit Constraints: Comment By Takeo Hori; Ryonghun Im
  17. Imperfect Information and Hidden Dynamics By Paul Levine; Joseph Pearlman; Stephen Wright; Bo Yang
  18. Labor Market News and Expectations about Jobs & Earnings By Schmidpeter, Bernhard
  19. Firm Balance Sheet Liquidity, Monetary Policy Shocks, and Investment Dynamics By Priit Jeenas
  21. A Survey of Central Bank Digital Currency Adoption in African countries By Ozili, Peterson K

  1. By: Schulz, Bastian (Aarhus University)
    Abstract: I study a dynamic search-matching model with two-sided heterogeneity, a production complementarity that induces labor market sorting, and aggregate shocks. In response to a positive productivity shock, incentives to sort increase disproportionately. Firms respond by posting additional vacancies, and the strength of the response is increasing in firm productivity. The distribution of unemployment worker types adjusts slowly, which amplifies job creation in the short run. In the long run, falling unemployment curtails the firms' vacancy posting. The model closely matches time-series moments from U.S. labor market data and produces realistic degrees of wage dispersion and labor market sorting.
    Keywords: search, matching, sorting, mismatch, aggregate shocks, worker heterogeneity, firm heterogeneity, unemployment dynamics
    JEL: E24 E32 J63 J64
    Date: 2023–09
  2. By: Aleksander Berentsen; Romina Ruprecht; Hugo van Buggenum
    Abstract: Major central banks remunerate reserves at negative rates (NIR). To study thelong-run effects of NIR, we focus on the role of reserves as intertemporal stores of value that are used to settle interbank liabilities. We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model with commercial banks holding reserves and funding investments with retail deposits. In the long run, NIR distorts investment decisions, lowers welfare, depresses output, and reduces bank profitability. The type of distortion depends on the transmission of NIR to retail deposits. The availability of cash explains the asymmetric effects of policy-rate changes in negative vs positive territory.
    Keywords: Monetary policy; Interest rates; Money market; Negative interest rate
    JEL: E40 E42 E43 E50 E58
    Date: 2023–09–29
  3. By: Krause, Willi; Costa, Luís; Costa Filho, João Ricardo
    Abstract: What are the drivers of output fluctuations in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic? We develop a macro-epidemiological model based on the evidence that efficiency and labor wedges are the key distortions in the neoclassical growth model that account for the GDP dynamics during the period. We find that the consumption and laborsupply effects of containment policies and the endogenous responses of households to pandemic-associated health risks can account for almost all weekly dynamics of output in Germany between the first quarter of 2020 and the second quarter of 2021. The containment policies are found to be responsible for especially large output losses during the pandemic, but the endogenous household responses appear to play an important complementary role. We simulate a counterfactual, laissezfaire type of response to the pandemic and find that not only would it not have avoided a sizeable recession either, but it would also lead to substantially higher losses in human life and stress on the German health service.
    Keywords: Covid-19, Germany, SIR-Macro, Dynamic General Equilibrium Model, Business Cycle Accounting.
    JEL: C63 E27 E32 I1 H0
    Date: 2023–10
  4. By: Régis Barnichon; Geert Mesters
    Abstract: How should we evaluate and compare the performances of policy institutions? We propose to evaluate institutions based on their reaction function, i.e., on how well they reacted to the different shocks that hit the economy. We show that reaction function evaluation is possible with only two sufficient statistics (i) the impulse responses of the policy objectives to non-policy shocks, which capture what an institution did on average to counteract these shocks, and (ii) the impulse responses of the policy objectives to policy shocks, which capture what an institution could have done to counteract the shocks. A regression of (i) on (ii) —a regression in impulse response space— allows to compute the distance to the optimal reaction function, and thereby evaluate and rank institutions. We use our methodology to evaluate US monetary policy; from the Gold standard period, the early Fed years and the Great Depression, to the post World War II period, and the post-Volcker regime. We find no material improvement in the reaction function over the first 100 years, and it is only in the last 30 years that we estimate large and uniform improvements in the conduct of monetary policy.
    Keywords: optimal policy, reaction function, structural shocks, impulse responses, monetary history
    JEL: C14 C32 E32 E52 N10
    Date: 2023–10
  5. By: Ozili, Peterson K
    Abstract: Central bank digital currency is non-physical money or the digital equivalent of physical money issued by a central bank. Nigeria is the first African country to issue a central bank digital currency, popularly known as the eNaira. This paper highlights the redesign features which the eNaira should possess for it to become very effective in offering payment solution and for macroeconomic stability. The eNaira should have an interest-bearing status, have enhanced security features and should offer zero transaction cost on eNaira transactions.
    Keywords: eNaira, central bank digital currency, Nigeria, interest-bearing CBDC, cryptocurrency, blockchain, payment system.
    JEL: E52 E58
    Date: 2023
  6. By: Yuliya Rychalovska; Sergey Slobodyan; Rafael Wouters
    Abstract: In this paper, we demonstrate the usefulness of survey data for macroeconomic analysis and propose a strategy to integrate and ec ciently utilize information from surveys in the DSGE setup. We extend the set of observable variables to include the data on consumption, investment, output, and ináation expectations, as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). By doing so, we aim to discipline the dynamics of model-based expectations and evaluate alternative belief models. Our approach to exploit the timely information from surveys is based on re-speciÖcation of structural shocks into persistent and transitory components. Due to the SPF, we are able to improve identiÖcation of fundamental shocks and predictive power of the model by separating the sources of low and high frequency volatility. Furthermore, we show that models with an imperfectly-rational expectation formation mechanism based on Adaptive Learning (AL) can reduce important limitations implied by the Rational Expectation (RE) hypothesis. More speciÖcally, our models based on belief updating can better capture macroeconomic trend shifts and, as a result, achieve superior long-term predictions. In addition, the AL mechanism can produce realistic time variation in the transmission of shocks and perceived macro-economic volatility, which allows the model to better explain the investment dynamics. Finally, AL models, which relax the RE constraint of internal consistency between the agentsíand model forecasts, can reproduce the main features of agentsí predictions in line with SPF evidence and, at the same time, can generate improved model forecasts, thus diminishing possible inec ciencies present in surveys.
    Keywords: Expectations, Survey data, Adaptive Learning, DSGE models
    JEL: C5 D84 E3
    Date: 2023–10
  7. By: Dräger, Lena; Lamla, Michael J.
    Abstract: After the financial crisis of 2008, central banks around the world have increased their communication efforts to reach consumers, with the aim of both guiding and anchoring their inflation expectations. For the expectations channel of monetary policy to work as intended, central banks need a thorough understanding of the formation process of expectations by the general public and of the relationship between expectations and economic choices. This warrants reliable and detailed data on consumers’ expectations of macroeconomic variables such as inflation or interest rates. We thus survey the available survey data and issues regarding the measurement of macroeconomic expectations. Furthermore, we discuss the research frontier on important aspects of the expectations channel: We evaluate the evidence on whether expectations are formed consistently with standard macroeconomic relationships, discuss the insights with respect to the anchoring of inflation expectations, explore the role of narratives and preferences and lastly, we survey the research on causal effects of central bank communication on expectations and economic choices.
    Keywords: Consumers’ macroeconomic expectations, central bank communication, survey data
    JEL: E52 E30 D84 C83
    Date: 2023–10
  8. By: Wilmar Alexander Cabrera-Rodríguez; Daniela Rodríguez-Novoa; Camilo Eduardo Sánchez-Quinto
    Abstract: This document presents a Gaussian Affine Term Structure Model (GATSM) of the zero-coupon public debt curve issued locally by the Colombian Government, adopting the methodological approach of Hamilton and Wu (2012) to solve the problems of identification and instability in the estimation of this family of models. Two empirical exercises are presented to highlight the relevance of this methodological approach. The first combines the GATSM structure with a Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) approach to forecast the yield curve given a set of macroeconomic variables, thus offering a practical way to link a macroeconomic scenario to financial prices in a stress testing exercise. In particular, the document presents the connection with the Systemic Stress Model (SYSMO) of the Financial Stability Department of the Central Bank of Colombia. The second evaluates the effect of monetary policy surprises on sovereign bond yields on a comprehensive set of maturities in a parsimonious way allowed by the GATSM structure. We found an almost immediate, complete, and significant pass-through on the short end of the yield curve. These empirical applications reflect the flexibility of this approach as a tool to address studies that deepenthe understanding of the dynamics of yield curves and macroeconomics, the valuation of financial instruments, and financial stability. **** RESUMEN: Este documento presenta un Modelo Afín Gaussiano para la Estructura a Plazos (GATSM, por sus siglas en inglés) de la curva cero cupón de los títulos de deuda pública emitidos localmente por el Gobierno colombiano, adoptando el enfoque metodológico de Hamilton y Wu (2012) para resolver los problemas de identificación e inestabilidad en la estimación de esta familia de modelos. Se presentan dos ejercicios empíricos para resaltar la relevancia de este enfoque metodológico. El primero combina la estructura GATSM con un enfoque de Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) para predecir la curva de rendimientos dado un conjunto de variables macroeconómicas, ofreciendo así una forma práctica de vincular un escenario macroeconómico a los precios financieros en un ejercicio de pruebas de estrés. En particular, el documento presenta la conexión con el modelo de estrés sistémico (SYSMO) del Departamento de Estabilidad Financiera del Banco de la República de Colombia. El segundo ejercicio evalúa el efecto de las sorpresas de política monetaria sobre los rendimientos de los bonos soberanos en un conjunto amplio de vencimientos de una manera parsimoniosa permitida por la estructura del GATSM. Encontramos una transmisión casi inmediata, completa y significativa en el extremo corto de la curva de rendimientos. Estas aplicaciones empíricas reflejan la flexibilidad de este enfoque como herramienta para abordar estudios que profundizan en la relación entre las curvas de rendimiento y la macroeconomía, la valoración de los instrumentos financieros y la estabilidad financiera.
    Keywords: Affine term structure models, Bond Interest Rates, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Monetary Policy, Modelos afín de la estructura a término de las tasas de interés, tasas de interés de los bonos, mercados financieros y macroeconomía, política monetaria
    JEL: E43 G12 E44 E52
    Date: 2023–10
  9. By: Elif Feyza Özcan Kodaz; Serdar Yürek
    Abstract: In this paper, we examine firms’ price-setting decisions to identify underlying pricing behaviour and discuss their implications for aggregate inflation dynamics. By employing retail-product level micro price data from Türkiye, we first construct aggregate indicators of the average frequency and size of individual price changes. Second, we i) compare the behaviours of these indicators across low and high inflation environments, ii) utilize two large exchange rate shocks, three value-added tax (VAT) adjustments, and thirteen hikes in a sectoral cost indicator to show how firms react to large and sudden shocks. Our results indicate that firms adjust their prices more frequently during periods of high inflation and change their prices immediately after large-scale shocks. Despite the substantial variation in the frequency of price changes, there is either moderate or no movement in the size of price changes, suggesting that firms’ pricing behaviour fits perfectly into state-dependent pricing. These findings also show that pass-through of shocks to prices accelerates after large shocks and in high-inflation environments. Thus, standard models, which assume constant speed of pass-through from macroeconomic conditions to prices, may produce misleading forecasts.
    Keywords: Firm behavior, Inflation, Inflation forecasting
    JEL: L20 E31 E37
    Date: 2023
  10. By: Marcio Santetti
    Abstract: This paper empirically assesses predictions of Goodwin's model of cyclical growth regarding demand and distributive regimes when integrating the real and financial sectors. In addition, it evaluates how financial and employment shocks affect the labor market and monetary policy variables over six different U.S. business-cycle peaks. It identifies a parsimonious Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive model with Stochastic Volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) with the labor share of income, the employment rate, residential investment, and the interest rate spread as endogenous variables. Using Bayesian inference methods, key results suggest (i) a combination of profit-led demand and profit-squeeze distribution; (ii) weakening of these regimes during the Great Moderation; and (iii) significant connections between the standard Goodwinian variables and residential investment as well as term spreads. Findings presented here broadly conform to the transition to increasingly deregulated financial and labor markets initiated in the 1980s.
    Date: 2023–10
  11. By: Dusan Stojanovic
    Abstract: This study examines how and to what extent quantitative easing of the ECB affects household income and wealth inequality in the euro area. Previous theoretical models have investigated the dynamics of inequality measures through differential access of households to financial/capital market (the portfolio rebalancing channel), neglecting the labor market differential (the earnings heterogeneity channel). Although the portfolio rebalancing channel may provide insight into wealth inequality and non-labor income inequality, this is not the case with labor (and thus total) income inequality. To be in line with the empirical evidence on labor income inequality, this study also considers segmented labor market on the basis of capital-skill complementarity in production and asymmetric real wage rigidities. When only financial market segmentation is considered, the quantitative results indicate a drop in total income inequality that is diminished over time, while wealth inequality experiences a rise that gradually becomes weaker. The introduction of the segmented labor market significantly mitigates the observed drop in total income inequality, while a rise in wealth inequality is largely amplified. Given the possible broadening of the ECB’s mandate towards distributional issues in the future, the analysis of segmented labor and financial markets can be more beneficial to the ECB as it provides a clearer picture of the inequality effects.
    Keywords: quantitative easing, capital-skill complementarity, asymmetric real wage rigidity, skill premium, portfolio rebalancing channel, earnings heterogeneity channel
    JEL: E21 E22 E44 E52 E58
    Date: 2023–08
  12. By: Popova, Olga; See, Sarah Grace; Nikolova, Milena; Otrachshenko, Vladimir
    Abstract: What are the broad societal implications of inflation and unemployment? Analyzing a dataset of over 1.9 million individuals from 156 countries via the Gallup World Poll spanning 2005 to 2021, alongside macroeconomic data at the national level, we find that both inflation and unemployment have a negative link with confidence in financial institutions. While inflation is generally unassociated with confidence in government and leadership approval, unemployment still has a strong negative association with these outcomes. While we find no gender differences in the consequences of inflation and unemployment for confidence in political and financial institutions, the associations we document are more substantial for the cohorts that are likely to bear a disproportionate burden from inflation and unemployment-the middle-aged, lower-educated, and unmarried individuals, and for those living in rural areas. Uncertainty about the country's economic performance and one's own economic situation are the primary channels behind the associations we identify. These findings hold significant implications for policymakers, Central Banks, and public discourse, necessitating targeted strategies to alleviate the social consequences of inflation and unemployment.
    Keywords: inflation, unemployment, trust, confidence in institutions, Gallup World Poll
    JEL: D12 D83 E31 E58
    Date: 2023
  13. By: Chadha, Jagjit S.
    Abstract: Major central banks have been caught in a low interest rate trap for over a decade. The temporary response to the financial crisis of 2008-9 has become something of a regime. The Federal Reserve, for example, attempted to ease quantitative easing in 2013 but this stalled following the “taper tantrum” and commenced a normalisation in the Federal Funds rate from 2015 but during Covid major central banks around the world rapidly returned policy rates to around zero. Low policy rates have been the response to tighter credit conditions, excessive global savings, low levels of investment and fiscal consolidation. But they have also played a role in propelling asset price growth and increasing levels of indebtedness. The accommodative stance in monetary policy, as well as the impetus from previous monetary and fiscal interventions seem like to have stoked inflation to a higher level that might otherwise have been the case following the shock of a war on the European continent. But may also have finally secured a normalisation in policy rates.
    Keywords: monetary policy; Ukraine war; normalisation; liquidity trap
    JEL: E43 E58 E61
    Date: 2023–09–08
  14. By: Guimaraes, Rodrigo (Bank of England); Pinter, Gabor (Bank of England); Wijnandts, Jean-Charles (Bank of England)
    Abstract: The large reactions of long-term government bond yields to monetary policy shocks occur during periods of higher market liquidity, and there is very little reaction during periods of lower liquidity. This newly documented liquidity state-dependence persistently affects real yields, term premia as well as long-term mortgage rates. Balance sheet constraints on both hedge funds and dealers contribute to the liquidity state-dependence. Conditioning on market liquidity yields stronger state-dependence than simply conditioning on macroeconomic indicators. Our results underscore the importance of market functioning, and the financial health of key intermediaries that support it, for implementing stabilisation policies.
    Keywords: Monetary Policy Shocks; Market Liquidity; Real Term Premium; Intermediary Asset Pricing.
    JEL: E40 E50 G12 G23
    Date: 2023–10–19
  15. By: Hazell, Jonathon (London School of Economics); Taska, Bledi (Burning Glass Technologies)
    Abstract: Wage rigidity is an important explanation for unemployment fluctuations. In benchmark models wages for new hires are key, but there is limited evidence on this margin. We use wages posted on vacancies, with job and establishment information, to measure the wage for new hires. We show that our measure of the wage for new hires is rigid downward and flexible upward, in two steps. First, wages change infrequently at the job level, and fall especially rarely. Second, wages do not respond to rises in unemployment, but respond strongly to falls in unemployment. Job information is crucial for detecting downward rigidity.
    Keywords: wage rigidity, online vacancy data
    JEL: E24 J31 J63 E32
    Date: 2023–10
  16. By: Takeo Hori (Department of Industrial Engineering and Economics, School of Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology); Ryonghun Im (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University)
    Abstract: We present a simple model that yields qualitatively the same results as Miao and Wang (2018) and re-examine whether asset bubbles exist in their model. A positive feedback mechanism between stock price and endogenous credit constraints increases the stock price. However, we show that the increase in the stock price is not bubbles, but a part of the fundamental value of the stock.
    Keywords: asset bubbles, fundamental value, credit constraints
    JEL: E22 E44 G12
    Date: 2023–10
  17. By: Paul Levine (University of Surrey); Joseph Pearlman (City University); Stephen Wright (Birkbeck College); Bo Yang (Swansea University)
    Abstract: In a DSGE rational expectations model, the agents’ assumed information sets are crucial for both the dynamics of the solution and for whether a SVAR econometrician can infer impulse responses to structural shocks. We adopt a heterogeneous agent, incomplete markets general framework where agents have imperfect and idiosyncratic information sets. In the limiting empirically plausible case of extreme heterogeneity, we show that a unique finite state space solution exists taking the same form as a single agent problem. The solution induces higher-order dynamics, hidden both from the agents and the econometrician, that would be absent in a perfect information economy.
    JEL: C11 C18 C32 E32
    Date: 2023–10
  18. By: Schmidpeter, Bernhard (University of Linz)
    Abstract: Little is known about how workers update expectations about job search and earnings when exposed to labor market news. To identify the impact of news on expectations, I exploit Foxconn’s unexpected announcement to build a manufacturing plant in Racine County. Exposure to positive news leads to an increase in expected salary growth at the current firm. Individuals also revise their expectations about outside offers upward, anchoring their beliefs to Foxconn's announced wages. They act on their updated beliefs with a small increase in current consumption. Negative news from a scaled-down plan leads to a revision of expectations back toward baseline.
    Keywords: outside options, wage expectations, beliefs formation, consumption
    JEL: C33 D84 E24 J31 J63
    Date: 2023–10
  19. By: Priit Jeenas
    Abstract: I study the role of firms' balance sheet liquidity in the transmission of monetary policy to investment. In response to monetary contractions, U.S. firms with fewer liquid asset holdings reduce investment relatively more. This can be explained by their higher likelihood to issue debt and the implied exposure to borrowing cost fluctuations. I rationalize these results using a heterogeneous firm macroeconomic model with financial constraints, debt issuance costs, and differential returns on cash and borrowing. Compared to a framework which ignores liquidity considerations, monetary transmission to aggregate investment is slightly dampened and depends on liquid asset portfolios beyond net worth.
    Keywords: monetary policy, investment, financial frictions, firm heterogeneity
    Date: 2023–10
  20. By: Olivier CARDI; Romain RESTOUT
    Abstract: The contractionary effect of aggregate technology shocks on hours worked has shrunk over time in OECD countries. Our estimates suggest that this finding can be attributed to the increasing share of the variance of technology improvements driven by asymmetric technology shocks across sectors. While technology improvements uniformly distributed across sectors are found empirically to give rise to a dramatic decline in total hours worked, asymmetric technology shocks do the opposite. By depreciating non-traded prices, symmetric technology shocks generate a contractionary effect on non-traded labor and thus on total hours. In contrast, by appreciating non-traded prices, technological change concentrated toward traded industries puts upward pressure on wages which has a strong expansionary effect on total hours worked. A two-sector open economy model with frictions into the movements of inputs can reproduce the time -increasing response of both total and sectoral hours worked we estimate empirically once we allow for factor-biased technological change and we let the share of asymmetric technology shocks increase over time. A model with endogenous technology decisions reveals that two-third of the progression of asymmetric technology shocks is driven by greater exposition of traded industries to the international stock of knowledge.
    Keywords: Sector-biased technology shocks; Endogenous technological change; Factor-augmenting efficiency; Open economy; Labor reallocation; CES production function; Labor income share.
    JEL: E25 E62 F11 F41 O33
    Date: 2023
  21. By: Ozili, Peterson K
    Abstract: The paper presents a survey of central bank digital currency (CBDC) adoption in African countries. Secondary data based on desk research were used to conduct the survey. Data for each African country were collected from publicly available information about each country’s interest and efforts in issuing a central bank digital currency. The survey shows that 70 per cent of African countries have not shown any interest in central bank digital currency. The West African region has the highest number of countries that have not shown any interest in central bank digital currency. Only 4 African countries have a robust payment system infrastructure that can support central bank digital currency. Only 14 African countries have officially indicated interest in central bank digital currency. Only 13 African countries have announced that they are studying central bank digital currency to determine whether they will pursue central bank digital currency as a short-term or long-term goal. Only 4 African countries have reached the pilot test stage of issuing a central bank digital currency. Finally, only one African country has formally issued a central bank digital currency. The policy implication of the findings is that there is low interest in central bank digital currency in the African continent. The low interest in central bank digital currency in African is attributed to the strong preference for cash payments, lack of a robust payment system, low use of digital payments, central banks’ focus on other priorities, fear of failure, lack of government interest in digital currency and concerns about CBDC privacy risk and security threats. These factors can slowdown the level of development and economic inclusion in African countries. There is need to accelerate the issuance of CBDC in African countries.
    Keywords: central bank digital currency, CBDC, Africa, blockchain, distributed ledger technology, CBDC survey.
    JEL: E50 E51 E52 E58 E59
    Date: 2023

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