nep-mac New Economics Papers
on Macroeconomics
Issue of 2023‒10‒30
23 papers chosen by
Daniela Cialfi, Universita' di Teramo

  1. From Linear to Nonlinear: Rethinking Inflation Dynamics in the Calvo Pricing Mechanism By Ales Marsal; Katrin Rabitsch; Lorant Kaszab
  2. Bonus Question: Does Flexible Incentive Pay Dampen Unemployment Dynamics? By Meghana Gaur; John R. Grigsby; Jonathon Hazell; Abdoulaye Ndiaye
  3. The pass-through of market interest rates to bank interest rates By Sergio Mayordomo; Irene Roibás
  4. Living Up to Expectations: Central Bank Credibility, the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis By Stephen J. Cole; Enrique Martinez-Garcia; Eric Sims
  5. Fiscal Rules and Economic Cycles: Quality (Always) Matters By Andrian, Leandro Gaston; Valencia, Oscar; Hirs, Jorge; Urrea Rios, Ivan Leonardo
  6. Confiance et activité économique : analyse dâimpact sur lâéconomie canadienne By Kevin Moran; Dalibor Stevanovic; Adam Abdel Kader Touré
  7. Optimal monetary policy in an estimated SIR model By Benmir, Ghassane; Jaccard, Ivan; Vermandel, Gauthier
  8. A financial conditions index for Iceland By Eysteinn Einarsson; Stella Einarsdottir; Tomas Dan Halldorsson; Vedis Sigridur Ingvarsdottir
  9. Monetary targeting revisited By Kern, Florian; Sigl-Glöckner, Philippa; Krahé, Max
  10. Betting on black gold: Oil speculation and U.S. inflation (2020-2022) By Carlotta Breman; Servaas Storm
  11. A Classical Marxian Two-Sector Endogenous Cycle Model: Integrating Marx, Dutt, and Goodwin By Cajas Guijarro, John
  12. Monetary transmission in Iceland - Evidence from a structural VAR model By Thorarinn G. Petursson
  13. Energy Prices and Household Heterogeneity: Monetary Policy in a Gas-TANK By Chan, Jenny; Diz, Sebastian; Kanngiesser, Derrick
  14. Spending Down Pandemic Savings Is an “Only-in-the-U.S.” Phenomenon By Matthew Higgins; Thomas Klitgaard
  15. Toward open science in PLS-SEM: Assessing the state of the art and future perspectives By Adler, Susanne Jana; Sharma, Pratyush N; Radomir, Lăcrămioara
  16. Measuring Persistent Global Economic Factors with Output, Commodity Price, and Commodity Currency Data By Arabinda Basistha; Richard Startz
  17. Tác động của yếu tố xã hội đến phản ứng của nhà đầu tư chứng khoán cá nhân trong khủng hoảng: bằng chứng từ Trung Quốc và Việt Nam By Tri, Nguyen Phuong; Van Quy, Nguyen; Hoang, Giang; Nguyen, Minh-Hoang
  18. Population Aging and the Rise of Populist Attitudes in Europe By Despina Gavresi; Andreas Irmen; Anastasia Litina
  19. Explaining Gender Differences in Migrant Sorting: Evidence from Canada-US Migration By Escamilla-Guerrero, David; Lepistö, Miko; Minns, Chris
  20. Zinsen statt Geldmenge: Für eine nicht-monetaristische Auslegung des AEUV By Orphal, Philipp; Kern, Florian; Krahé, Max
  21. Well-being, time use, and women's empowerment after couple separation: Longitudinal evidence for Uruguay By Marisa Bucheli; Andrea Vigorito
  22. Cybersecurity provision and online services access and usage By Martins, Lurdes
  23. Interessenvertretung unter Remote-Bedingungen: Herausforderungen und Lösungsansätze By Kötter, Julius; Schaffarczik, Sandra; Daus, Jan-Torge; Repp, Riema; Niewerth, Claudia; Wannöffel, Manfred

  1. By: Ales Marsal (National Bank of Slovakia); Katrin Rabitsch (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Lorant Kaszab (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)
    Abstract: Modern macroeconomics is increasingly leaning towards nonlinear solution methods. Our paper addresses the importance of nonlinearities in price setting. We demonstrate how nonlinearity in endogenous price adjustments, due to misalignments in relative prices, can trigger a price dispersion inflation spiral. This phenomenon yields globally unstable dynamics, even in instances where the model is locally stable around the non-stochastic steady state. We introduce the concept of the stability region as a nonlinear counterpart to the determinacy region. Our findings indicate that in a nonlinear world, the Taylor principle alone does not guarantee inflation stability and stable macroeconomic model moments. This new understanding not only challenges the conventional wisdom on inflation stabilization but also underscores the urgency for recalibrating monetary policy strategies in response to these dynamics.
    Keywords: Determinacy, stability, price dispersion, monetary policy, nonlinear solution methods, macro-finance
    JEL: E13 E31 E43 E44
    Date: 2023–09
  2. By: Meghana Gaur; John R. Grigsby; Jonathon Hazell; Abdoulaye Ndiaye
    Abstract: We introduce dynamic incentive contracts into a model of unemployment dynamics and present three results. First, wage cyclicality from incentives does not dampen unemployment dynamics: the response of unemployment to shocks is first-order equivalent in an economy with flexible incentive pay and without bargaining, vis-á-vis an economy with rigid wages. Second, wage cyclicality from bargaining dampens unemployment dynamics through the standard mechanism. Third, our calibrated model suggests 46% of wage cyclicality in the data arises from incentives. A standard model without incentives calibrated to weakly procyclical wages, matches unemployment dynamics in our incentive pay model calibrated to strongly procyclical wages.
    JEL: E24 E32 J33 J41 J64
    Date: 2023–09
  3. By: Sergio Mayordomo (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Irene Roibás (BANCO DE ESPAÑA)
    Abstract: The pass-through of market interest rates to the financial conditions of households and firms is an essential element in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. In this paper, we analyse how this transmission is playing out in the current hiking cycle in the euro area and in Spain, as compared to previous cycles. We find that the pass-through to the interest rates on retail time deposits is slower than in previous hiking cycles in both jurisdictions. Moreover, a slower pass-through is also observed for mortgages in Spain. We then show there is significant heterogeneity in this pass-through across euro area countries, especially for mortgages and retail time deposits. This heterogeneity is driven by both bank and country characteristics. More specifically, in the case of deposits, we find that almost half of the difference between the remuneration of retail time deposits in Spain and the euro area is driven by differences across banking sectors in the need to raise funds through deposits to supply credit.
    Keywords: monetary policy, interest rate pass-through, bank lending channel, loans, retail deposits, heterogeneity.
    JEL: E43 E47 E50 E51 E52 E58 E59 E65 G17 G21
    Date: 2023–10
  4. By: Stephen J. Cole; Enrique Martinez-Garcia; Eric Sims
    Abstract: This paper studies the effectiveness of forward guidance when central banks have imperfect credibility. Exploiting unique survey-based measures of expected inflation, output growth and interest rates, we estimate a small-scale New Keynesian model for the United States and other G7 countries plus Spain allowing for deviations from full information rational expectations. In our model, the key parameter that aggregates heterogeneous expectations captures the central bank's credibility and affects the overall effectiveness of forward guidance. We find that the central banks of the U.S., the U.K., Germany and other major advanced economies have similar levels of credibility (albeit far from full credibility); however, Japan's central bank credibility is much lower. For each country, our measure of credibility has declined over time, making forward guidance less effective. In a counterfactual analysis, we document that inflation would have been significantly higher, and the zero lower bound on short-term interest rates much less of an issue, in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis had the public perceived central bank forward guidance statements to be perfectly credible. Moreover, inflation would have declined more, and somewhat faster, with perfect credibility in the wake of the inflation surge post-COVID-19.
    Keywords: forward guidance; central bank credibility; heterogeneous expectations
    JEL: D84 E30 E52 E58 E60 P52
    Date: 2023–09–29
  5. By: Andrian, Leandro Gaston; Valencia, Oscar; Hirs, Jorge; Urrea Rios, Ivan Leonardo
    Abstract: Governments can issue public debt for both good and bad reasons. The former include intertemporal tax smoothing, fiscal stimulus, and asset management. In contrast, the bad reasons, which generate higher indebtedness, are mainly associated with political cycles, rent capture, intergenerational transfers, and common pool problems. Fiscal rules aim to eliminate the problem of time inconsistency of public finances and minimize debt accumulation by setting debt limits. Despite the theoretical relevance of fiscal rules and institutions to the proper management of fiscal processes in different countries, the evidence indicates mixed results regarding the effectiveness of this type of mechanism for fiscal performance. To understand the effect that fiscal rules have on public debt, this paper studies the effect of different types of rules on debt behavior and their differential effects with respect to the economic cycle. Using a dynamic panel, which enables us to control for endogeneity problems, and the use of a fiscal rule quality index (Schaechter et. al., 2012), this paper finds that fiscal rules only have a significant effect on the reduction of public debt during the positive side of the economic cycle if adequate institutional arrangements accompany them. Furthermore, only some types of fiscal rules (expenditure rules) show a significant effect during the negative part of the cycle. These results have relevant policy implications, as they underscore the importance of (1) developing institutional arrangements that promote the proper functioning of fiscal rules and (2) considering economic cycle asymmetries in order to ensure the appropriate operation of fiscal rules and the fulfillment of policy objectives.
    Keywords: Fiscal Rules;Public Debt;Business cycle
    JEL: E32 E61 E62 H30 H63
    Date: 2022–11
  6. By: Kevin Moran; Dalibor Stevanovic; Adam Abdel Kader Touré
    Abstract: Since the beginning of 2022, both consumer and business confidence indices have recorded sharp, rapid declines in both Canada and the United States. Overall, economic agents in both Canada and the U.S. seem pessimistic about future economic conditions. Here, the authors examine the causal aspect of the correlation between confidence and economic activity. Using econometric estimates based on the vector autoregressive models (VARs) method, they assess the impact of shocks to consumer and business confidence on several aggregates measuring Canadian economic activity. Their results suggest that a sudden rise (fall) in confidence is likely to trigger an economic acceleration (slowdown) in Canada. The impacts of specifically Canadian confidence shocks are quantitatively more important, hence the importance of an analysis focusing on Canadian measures of confidence. Depuis le début de l’année 2022, autant les indices de confiance des consommateurs que ceux de la confiance des entreprises ont enregistré des baisses marquées et rapides, au Canada comme aux États-Unis. Dans l’ensemble, les agents économiques, qu’ils soient canadiens ou américains, semblent pessimistes à propos de la conjoncture économique à venir. Les auteurs examinent ici l’aspect causal de la corrélation entre confiance et activité économique. À partir d'estimations économétriques fondées sur la méthode des modèles vectoriels autorégressifs (VARs), ils évaluent les impacts des chocs à la confiance des consommateurs et des entreprises sur plusieurs agrégats mesurant l’activité économique canadienne. Leurs résultats suggèrent qu’une hausse (baisse) soudaine dans la confiance est susceptible de provoquer une accélération (un ralentissement) économique au Canada. Les impacts des chocs de confiance spécifiquement canadiens sont quantitativement plus importants, d’où l’importance d’une analyse mettant l’accent sur les mesures canadiennes de confiance.
    Keywords: Confidence, consumers, businesses, macroeconomic fluctuations, business cycle, inflation, GDP, Confiance, consommateurs, entreprises, fluctuations macroéconomiques, VAR, cycles économiques, activité économique, inflation, PIB
    JEL: E32 F41 F44
    Date: 2023–10–02
  7. By: Benmir, Ghassane; Jaccard, Ivan; Vermandel, Gauthier
    Abstract: This paper studies the design of Ramsey optimal monetary policy in a Health New Keynesian (HeNK) model with Susceptible, Infected and Recovered (SIR) agents. The nonlinear model is estimated with maximum likelihood techniques on Euro Area data. Our objective is to deconstruct the mechanism by which contagion risk affects the conduct of monetary policy. If monetary policy is the only game in town, we find that the optimal policy features significant deviations from price stability to mitigate the effect of the pandemic. The best outcome is obtained when the optimal Ramsey policy is combined with a lockdown strategy of medium intensity. In this case, monetary policy can concentrate on its price stabilization objective. JEL Classification: E52, E32
    Keywords: Covid-19, HeNK, macroeconomic trade-offs, nonlinear inference, Tin-bergen principle
    Date: 2023–09
  8. By: Eysteinn Einarsson; Stella Einarsdottir; Tomas Dan Halldorsson; Vedis Sigridur Ingvarsdottir
    Abstract: In this paper we remedy the lack of formalized relations between financial health and economic activity via a Financial Conditions Index for Iceland (FCI). We use a broad spectrum of financial information including price, spread, volatility and quantity variables, for the period 2002-2023. Variable selection is in line with broad consensus in the relevant literature. In addition, we include variables that are shown to have prediction properties vis-à-vis growth of real GDP over the horizon of two and four quarters ahead. The FCI is constructed using principal component analysis and is normalized such that a positive value indicates that financial conditions are looser than the historical average, while a negative value suggest that financial conditions are tighter than the historical average. We show that fluctuations and extreme events in historical real economic activity is captured by the FCI, implying that it is potentially a leading indicator of GDP developments.
    JEL: E44 E52 E61
    Date: 2023–09
  9. By: Kern, Florian; Sigl-Glöckner, Philippa; Krahé, Max
    Abstract: Central banks define a monetary policy strategy in which they set out the instruments they use to achieve their monetary policy objectives as well as the incoming data they take into account when using these instruments. Independent central banks in particular are expected to provide a detailed and comprehensible explanation of their monetary policy strategy, since the absence of direct democratic legitimation comes along with particular accountability requirements. Since the end of the Bretton Woods system, both the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) and the Deutsche Bundesbank, and later the European Central Bank (ECB), have made significant changes to their monetary policy strategy. In the 1970s, both the Bundesbank and the Fed pursued, at least officially, a monetary targeting strategy. We explain the analytical fallacies that underlay this strategy and the ideological assumptions that paved its way into practice. It is still unclear why a framework that is incoherent even at the theoretical level has been upheld for so long. It is conceivable that path dependency and a negative error culture played a role. Accordingly, we propose an evaluation of monetary policy strategy and its changes since 1973 with the aim of identifying and remedying relevant institutional weaknesses. The evaluation should also aim at clarifying whether monetary targeting resulted in institutional choices that continue to prevent monetary policy from achieving the Union's stated objectives in an optimal manner to this day. Considering that the quantity theory of money underlying monetary targeting is also propagated by supporters of cryptocurrencies, who use it specifically to attack the legitimacy of central banks, a reappraisal of the theory should also help to strengthen trust in central banks and reduce the damage caused by cryptocurrencies.
    Date: 2022
  10. By: Carlotta Breman (Delft University of Technology); Servaas Storm (Delft University of Technology)
    Abstract: Sharp increases in systemically important crude oil prices have been a major cause of the recent surge in the inflation rate in the U.S. This paper investigates the extent to which the increase in oil prices can be attributed to excessive speculation in the oil futures market. Our analysis suggests that excessive speculation in the crude oil market has been responsible for 24%-48% of the increase in the WTI crude oil price during October 2020-June 2022. These estimates translate into an oil price increase of around $18-$36 per barrel and an increase in the U.S. PCE inflation rate by circa 0.75 to 1.5 percentage points during the same period. We complement the analysis with an empirical investigation of the crude oil market which shows that (speculative) long non-commercial open-interest positions in oil futures have increased considerably relative to short non-commercial positions. We further find that higher futures prices for crude oil 'Granger-cause' oil spot prices, the futures prices of corn and soybeans and the fertilizer price. These econometric results show that oil speculators have to be held accountable for not just raising oil prices, but also driving up food commodity prices. We finally discuss measures to clamp down on excessive speculation in oil in order to eliminate its systemically adverse consequences for the U.S. economy.
    Keywords: inflation; oil prices; oil majors; spot and futures prices; speculation; Granger causality; Working's T-index; speculative pressure; commercial and non-commercial traders; open interest; index investor.
    JEL: E0 E5 E6 E62 O23 I12 J08
    Date: 2023–06–06
  11. By: Cajas Guijarro, John
    Abstract: This paper introduces a Classical Marxian Two-Sector Endogenous Cycle (CMTSEC) model, merging Dutt's (1988) two-sector model of Classical convergence with labor dynamics inspired by Goodwin (1967) and an endogenous labor supply inspired by Harris (1983). Empirical support fortifies these assumptions. Utilizing the Hopf bifurcation theorem and numerical simulations, we demonstrate the model's capacity to produce stable limit cycles encompassing wage share, employment rate, and sectoral capital distribution. Notably, sectoral profit rates exhibit cyclic fluctuations, prompting a reevaluation of long-run equilibrium. The model underscores the role of investment sensitivity to sectoral profit rate disparities in determining cycle stability. Hence, the CMTSEC model extends Goodwin’s (1967) endogenous cycle model, encapsulating the conflict between capital and labor while delving into the intricate dynamics of capitalist reproduction in a two-sector economy.
    Keywords: two-sector model; labor market dynamics; endogenous cycles; sensitivity of investment to profit rate differentials; long-run equilibrium
    JEL: C61 E11 E32 O41
    Date: 2023–09–22
  12. By: Thorarinn G. Petursson
    Abstract: This paper analysis the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Iceland using three alternative identification schemes in a structural VAR setting. Consistent with the international literature, we find that an unexpected monetary policy tightening leads to a temporary but sizable contraction in output, a sustained appreciation of the nominal exchange rate, and a more sluggish and persistent decline in inflation. Three other structural shocks are also identified. All have plausible economic interpretation and can explain the bulk of the variation in output and inflation over our sample period. By comparison, the contribution from monetary policy shocks is relatively modest, especially to output fluctuations. Historical decomposition shows, however, that monetary policy played an important role during the disinflation of the second half of the 2010s and in offsetting a large negative demand shock following the global pandemic at the start of this decade. However, the historical decomposition also suggests that the withdrawal of the post-Covid monetary easing was too slow, thus contributing to rising inflation by the end of the sample period.
    JEL: C32 E52 F41
    Date: 2023–09
  13. By: Chan, Jenny; Diz, Sebastian; Kanngiesser, Derrick
    Abstract: How does household heterogeneity affect the transmission of an energy price shock? What are the implications for monetary policy? We develop a small, open-economy TANK model that features labor and an energy import good as complementary production inputs (Gas-TANK). Given such complementarities, higher energy prices reduce the labor share of total income. Due to borrowing constraints, this translates into a drop in aggregate demand. Higher price flexibility insures firm profits from adverse energy price shocks, further depressing labor income and demand. We illustrate how the transmission of shocks in a RANK versus a TANK depends on the degree of complementarity between energy and labor in production and the degree of price rigidities. Optimal monetary policy is less contractionary in a TANK and can even be expansionary when credit constraints are severe. Finally, the contractionary effect of an energy price shock on demand cannot be generalized to alternate supply shocks, as the specific nature of the supply shock affects how resources are redistributed in the economy.
    Keywords: Heterogenous agent models, business cycle fluctuations, energy, monetary policy
    JEL: E5
    Date: 2022–10
  14. By: Matthew Higgins; Thomas Klitgaard
    Abstract: Household saving soared in the United States and other high-income economies during the pandemic, as consumers cut back on spending while government policies supported incomes. More recently, saving behavior has diverged, with the U.S. saving rate dropping below its pre-pandemic average while saving rates elsewhere have remained above their pre-pandemic averages. As a result, U.S. consumers have been spending down the “excess savings” built up during the pandemic while the excess savings abroad remain untapped. This divergent behavior helps explain why U.S. GDP has returned to its pre-pandemic trend path even as GDP levels in other high-income economies continue to run well below trend.
    Keywords: savings; saving rate; consumer spending; consumption; disposable income; excess savings; growth; pandemic; post-pandemic
    JEL: E2 F00
    Date: 2023–10–11
  15. By: Adler, Susanne Jana (Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich); Sharma, Pratyush N (The University of Alabama); Radomir, Lăcrămioara (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Babeș-Bolyai University)
    Abstract: Driven by the high-profile failures to reproduce and replicate published findings, there have been increasing demands to adopt open science practices across scientific disciplines in order to enhance research transparency. Critics have highlighted the use of underpowered studies and researchers’ analytical degrees of freedom as factors contributing to these issues. Despite methodological advances and updated guidelines, similar concerns persist regarding studies utilizing partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). Open science practices can help alleviate these concerns by facilitating transparency in PLS-SEM-based studies. However, the current level of adherence to these practices remains unknown. In this article, we conduct a comprehensive literature review of leading marketing journals to assess the extent to which open science practices are implemented in PLS-SEM-based studies. Based on the observed lack of adoption, we propose a PLS-SEM-specific preregistration template that researchers can use to foster transparency in their analyses, thereby bolstering confidence in their findings.
    Date: 2023–09–23
  16. By: Arabinda Basistha (West Virginia University); Richard Startz (University of California, Santa Barbara)
    Abstract: In this study we use monthly G7 industrial production data, commodity price index data, and commodity currency exchange rate data in a dynamic factor model to examine the global economic factors useful for commodity price prediction. We differentiate between the dynamic factors by specifying a persistent factor and a non-persistent factor, both as a single global factor using all data and as factors for each category of data. The in-sample predictive performances of the three persistent factors together are better than the non-persistent factors and the single global factors. Out-of-sample outcomes based on forecast combinations also support the presence of predictive information in the persistent factors for overall commodity prices and for most sub-categories of commodity price indexes relative to their means. The gains in forecast accuracy are heterogeneous; ranging from 5 to 7 percent in the 1 to 6 months horizon for the overall commodity prices to a high of around 20 percent for fertilizers in the 12 month horizon in the recent sample. We further show that the information in the persistent factors, especially in the commodity currency exchange rate based persistent factor, can be integrated with other global measures to further improve the predictive performances of the global measures.
    Keywords: Dynamic factor model, industrial production, commodity price, commodity currency
    JEL: C51 C53 F62 Q02
    Date: 2023–10
  17. By: Tri, Nguyen Phuong; Van Quy, Nguyen; Hoang, Giang; Nguyen, Minh-Hoang
    Abstract: Cảm xúc là yếu tố cơ bản thúc đẩy con người đưa ra quyết định và xử lý thông tin. Sợ hãi là một trong những cảm xúc phổ biến nhất ảnh hưởng đến hành vi của nhà đầu tư cá nhân trên thị trường chứng khoán. Mặc dù nhiều nghiên cứu đã được thực hiện để khám phá tác động của nỗi sợ hãi đối với hiệu quả đầu tư và hành vi giao dịch của nhà đầu tư cá nhân, nhưng vẫn còn rất ít thông tin về các yếu tố ảnh hưởng đến nỗi sợ hãi của nhà đầu tư cá nhân trong thời kỳ thị trường sụt giảm (hoặc những giai đoạn cực kỳ biến động). Vì thế, nghiên cứu này được thực hiện để tìm hiểu liệu các nguồn thông tin ảnh hưởng đến quyết định đầu tư của nhà đầu tư có ảnh hưởng đến sự sợ hãi của họ khi khủng hoảng xảy ra hay không. Nghiên cứu đã sử dụng phương pháp phân tích Bayesian Mindsponge Framework (BMF) trên bộ dữ liệu từ 1526 nhà đầu tư Trung Quốc và Việt Nam. Kết quả nghiên cứu chỉ ra rằng các nhà đầu tư tiếp cận các loại thông tin khác nhau khi đưa ra quyết định đầu tư sẽ ảnh hưởng đến tần suất phản ứng sợ hãi khác nhau. Cụ thể, các nhà đầu tư tham khảo thông tin từ chuyên gia hoặc tự phân tích khi đưa ra quyết định đầu tư ít bị đóng băng (biểu hiện của tâm lý sợ hãi) hơn trong thời kỳ thị trường sụt giảm. Ngược lại, những người đưa ra quyết định đầu tư dựa trên thông tin từ người quen hay bạn bè và trực giác sẽ bị đóng băng thường xuyên hơn. Kết quả nghiên cứu này giúp gợi ý nhà đầu tư cá nhân nên trang bị cho mình các kiến thức về tài chính cũng như tham khảo các ý kiến chuyên gia trên thị trường, hoặc những nguồn thông tin đáng tin cậy, khi đưa ra quyết định đầu tư. Bên cạnh đó, cơ quan quản lý thị trường cần có hoạt động phổ cập kiến thức về thị trường chứng khoán, hạn chế ảnh hưởng của các kênh thông tin không chính thống, và khuyến khích nhà đầu tư ít kinh nghiệm mua chứng chỉ quỹ của các quỹ đầu tư.
    Date: 2023–09–22
  18. By: Despina Gavresi (DEM, Université du Luxembourg); Andreas Irmen (DEM, Université du Luxembourg); Anastasia Litina (University of Macedonia, Thessaloniki, GR)
    Abstract: In the light of the rise in populism in Europe, this paper empirically explores the interplay between population aging and populist attitudes. We test this hypothesis by conducting a multilevel analysis of individuals living in European countries over the period 2002-2019. Our measure of population aging is the country’s old-age dependency ratio, thus we focus on population or societal aging as opposed to individual aging. Populist attitudes are derived from individual-level data that provide information about voting for populist parties, political trust and attitudes towards immigration available in nine consecutive rounds of the European Social Survey. Our findings suggest that societal aging is associated with a fall in trust in national and European institutions and a rise in attitudes against immigrants. There are two potential mechanisms driving our results. First, a shift in the median voter age. Older people tend to be more conservative, voting more for right-wing populist parties and this is reflected on the median vote and attitude as well. The second mechanism appeals to the impact that the presence of the “old” group in the society has on the society and the economy as a whole, it is thus more of an “externality” effect. Living in an aging society, young people are aware of the fact that they have to cater for a large share of old people and this gives rise to different incentives and attitudes compared to individuals living in “young” societies
    Keywords: Population Aging, Populist Vote, Immigrant Attitudes, Trust.
    JEL: D72 J10 P16 Z13
    Date: 2023
  19. By: Escamilla-Guerrero, David (University of St Andrews); Lepistö, Miko (Paris School of Economics); Minns, Chris (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: Using newly digitized Canada-Vermont border crossing records from the early twentieth century, this paper identifies key factors that may explain differences in how female and male migrants sort by human capital across destinations. Earnings maximization largely explains sorting patterns among males, while gender discrimination has a large effect on the sorting of female migrants. Everything else equal, destinations with institutional and social environments that limited the participation of women in the labor market attracted a lower-skilled mix of both single females and couples. Although married women were typically tied to a spouse whose labor market opportunities determined the joint destination, we find evidence suggesting that their degree of agency in the destination choice increased with human capital.
    Keywords: migration, sorting, gender, Canada, United States
    JEL: J61 N31 N32
    Date: 2023–09
  20. By: Orphal, Philipp; Kern, Florian; Krahé, Max
    Abstract: In diesem Papier zeigen wir, dass die Rechtsprechung über die Rechtmäßigkeit von Anleihekäufen durch die Zentralbanken des Eurosystems in Teilen auf der volkswirtschaftlichen Theorie des Monetarismus basiert und insbesondere auf einem Aufsatz von Thomas Sargent und Neil Wallace aus dem Jahr 1981 ("Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic"). Doch der Monetarismus, schon in den 1970er- und 1980er-Jahren kontrovers, ist heute überholt. Die Annahmen, auf denen Sargent und Wallance ihr Argument aufbauen, waren bereits damals teils ungenau; heute ist allgemein anerkannt, dass sie in der Realität nicht zutreffen. Diesem wissenschaftlichen Fortschritt sollte im Rahmen der Auslegung Rechnung getragen werden. Wir entwickeln daher in diesem Papier eine aktualisierte, "nicht-monetaristische Auslegung" des Artikels 123 AEUV. Diese sollte in drei Bereichen von den in der bisherigen Rechtsprechung entwickelten Maßstäben abweichen: Erstens sollte das Verbot wegfallen, nach dem das Europäische System der Zentralbanken keine Sekundärmarktankäufe tätigen darf, die in ihrer Wirkung Primärmarktankäufen gleichkommen ("Verbot von Tätigkeitwerden gleicher Wirkung"). Zweitens sollte die Einschränkung, die darauf abzielt, dass Sekundärmarktankäufe nicht die Anreize zu einer "gesunden" Haushaltspolitik nehmen dürfen ("Umgehungsverbot"), ersetzt werden. An ihre Stelle sollte die Einschränkung rücken, dass Sekundärmarktankäufe nur dem Ziel der Preisstabilität dienen dürfen sowie, wenn dies ohne Beeinträchtigung des ersten Ziels möglich ist, der Unterstützung der allgemeinen Wirtschaftspolitik der Europäischen Union. Gesunde öffentliche Finanzen sind in Art. 123 AEUV nur ein Mittel zur Erreichung von Preisstabilität. Im Mittelpunkt der Auslegung sollte daher die Verfolgung von Preisstabilität stehen. Das allgemeine wirtschaftspolitische Ziel von gesunden öffentlichen Finanzen ist Gegenstand anderer Regelungen. Drittens - und damit zusammenhängend - sollte das Bundesverfassungsgericht den Schutz des Budgetrechts des Bundestags nicht weiter an Art. 123 AEUV festmachen. Die darauf aufbauenden detaillierteren Maßgaben und Verbote schaden der Geldpolitik und damit der Preisstabilität. Das bedeutet nicht, dass das Bundesverfassungsgericht diesen Schutz aufgeben sollte. Stattdessen sollte er anhand jener rechtlichen Maßstäbe geprüft werden, die dafür geschaffen wurden: Art. 121, Art. 125 und Art. 126 AEUV.
    Date: 2022
  21. By: Marisa Bucheli (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Sociales. Departamento de Economía); Andrea Vigorito (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)
    Abstract: Although many studies have assessed the effects of union dissolution on access to economic resources, on economic outcomes for adults, particularly custodial mothers, and on a broad set of educational and socioemotional outcomes for children, there is less literature analysing changes in other domains of women's quality of life that might be affected when couple separation occurs in households with small children. In this study, we analyse the effects of union dissolution (divorce and couple separation) on women's well-being and empowerment in the short run, based on two waves of Encuesta de Nutrición, Desarrollo Infantil y Salud (ENDIS), an official longitudinal study that followed Uruguayan households with children who were age 0 to 3 years in 2013. Specifically, we assess the effects of separation on economic and subjective well-being, time use and household workload, empowerment, and attitudes towards gender norms. To control for the potential selectivity of union dissolution, we carry out a combined PSM/difference-in-difference estimation. We find that, for women who are custodial mothers, union dissolution entails, on average, a net per capita household income loss of 29%, an increase in paid labour effort, and a decrease in time devoted to household work. At the same time, empowerment and traditional gender norms are scarcely affected by union dissolution, though equalizing gender norm attitudes predict union dissolution. After ruling out a set of potential channels related to substitution effects (such as increased school attendance, seeking help from relatives, or hiring domestic workers) that might explain the decrease in household workload, we provide suggestive evidence on the role of loosened gender norms following the exit of a male household member or more structured care arrangements with non-coresident fathers that needs to be tested in further research.
    Keywords: Uruguay, time use, separation, gender role attitudes, empowerment, ENDIS
    JEL: J12 J13 I30
    Date: 2023–06
  22. By: Martins, Lurdes
    Abstract: This paper aims to assess whether cyber insecurity can stand in the way of the trust needed by industry, governments and citizens to reduce observed international differences in several dimensions of the digital economy and society. Furthermore, we explore the extent to which our results are especially relevant for countries exhibiting early stages of mobile communications networks. We combine data, at the national level, from the 2017 Microsoft SIR regional reports with broader information data from the ITU cybersecurity index for the period 2014-2021 to obtain empirical evidence on the relationship between cyber security and digital and online services expansion at the country level. We find a negative relationship between citizens, government and businesses' overall digital adoption and cyber insecurity at the country level. Furthermore, we extend this result to the relationship between cybersecurity and online services diffusion, especially for apps and social media expansion. The results confirm that, in addition to other socioeconomic variables, cybersecurity is an important factor explaining the observed worldwide disparities in the studied online services access and usage. We also ascertain that the distribution of cybersecurity across countries may affect social media penetration to a lower extent in economies with lower mobile communications connectivity in comparison with more developed ones. By contrast, there seems to exist a similar negative cybersecurity effect in apps development and availability for all countries regardless of their mobile connectivity development level.
    Keywords: cybersecurity, digital divide, socioeconomic inequalities
    Date: 2023
  23. By: Kötter, Julius; Schaffarczik, Sandra; Daus, Jan-Torge; Repp, Riema; Niewerth, Claudia; Wannöffel, Manfred
    Abstract: Die Studie "Interessenvertretung unter Remote-Bedingungen" präsentiert die Einschätzungen von Betriebs- und Personalrät*innen sowie Jugend- und Auszubildendenvertretungen zur veränderten Gremienorganisation während der Covid-19-Pandemie. Dabei werden die Fragen beantwortet: Welche Bedingungen prägten diese Zeit? Wie bewerten die Gremien die Erfahrungen? Welche Lösungen haben sie gefunden, um ihr Amt unter diesen Umständen auszuüben? Basierend auf den Eindrücken der Befragten werden die Herausforderungen von Remote-Arbeit sowie die damit verbundenen Anforderungen aufgezeigt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen: Mitbestimmungsakteur*innen mussten ihre Arbeitsorganisation umstrukturieren, mit Folgen für die Praxis. Beleuchtet werden sowohl Bedingungen gelingender Remote-Arbeit als auch Qualifizierungsbedarfe und Missstände bei der technischen Ausstattung der Gremien. Die vorliegende Mitbestimmungspraxis gibt außerdem Aufschluss darüber, ob und wie es den Gremien möglich war, den Kontakt zu den Beschäftigten und der Geschäftsführung aufrechtzuerhalten. Dadurch erhalten Mitbestimmungspraktiker*innen Anregungen für ihre individuelle Situation sowie für potenzielle Lösungswege. Angesichts der Pandemieerfahrungen werden die Chancen und Herausforderungen hybrider Formate untersucht und als mögliche Zukunftsperspektive diskutiert. Darüber hinaus erfolgt ein Überblick über die besondere Situation von Jugend- und Auszubildendenvertretungen sowie die Bedeutung der Überalterung von Mitbestimmungsgremien für den Umgang mit Remote-Arbeit
    Keywords: Betriebs- / Personalrat, Betriebs- / Dienstvereinbarungen, Betriebsrat, Betriebsratsorganisation, Jungend- und Auszubildendenvertretung, Personalrat, Mitbestimmung in Deutschland, Wirkung von Mitbestimmung, ARBEIT, Arbeitsbedingungen, Arbeits- / Gesundheitsschutz, Datenschutz, Homeoffice / mobile Arbeit, Aus- / Weiterbildung / Wissenstransfer, Qualifizierung / Weiterbildung, Technologischer Wandel, Unternehmen, Automatisierung / Digitalisierung, Innovation, Künstliche Intelligenz
    Date: 2023

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