nep-mac New Economics Papers
on Macroeconomics
Issue of 2023‒10‒23
nineteen papers chosen by
Daniela Cialfi, Universita' di Teramo

  1. Beneath the Veneer of Calm By Vasily Astrov; Alexandra Bykova; Rumen Dobrinsky; Selena Duraković; Meryem Gökten; Richard Grieveson; Doris Hanzl-Weiss; Marcus How; Gabor Hunya; Branimir Jovanović; Niko Korpar; Sebastian Leitner; Isilda Mara; Olga Pindyuk; Sandor Richter; Bernd Christoph Ströhm; Maryna Tverdostup; Zuzana Zavarská; Adam Żurawski
  2. The effect of quantitative easing and quantitative tightening on the U.S. equity REIT returns By Axelsson, Birger; Song, Han-Suck
  3. Monetary Policy Effectiveness in the Face of Uncertainty: The Real Macroeconomic Impact of a Monetary Policy Shock in South Africa during High and Low Uncertainty States By Chevaughn van der Westhuizen; Renee van Eyden; Goodness C. Aye
  4. Energy prices and household heterogeneity: monetary policy in a Gas-TANK By Chan, Jenny; Diz, Sebastian; Kanngiesser, Derrick
  5. Imalat Sanayi Sektorlerinin Mali Yapisi: 2009-2021 Donemine Iliskin Gozlemler By Selcuk Gul; Abdullah Kazdal
  6. Identifying Macroeconomic Resilience to External Shocks in Emerging and Developing Countries: Lessons from the Global Shocks of 2020-2022 By Liliana Rojas-Suarez
  7. Non-Stationary Search and Assortative Matching By Nicolas Bonneton; Christopher Sandmann
  8. When Will Global Gender Gaps Close? By Alejandro Badel; Rishi Goyal
  9. A Time-Series Examination of the Quality of Industry-Level U.S. Productivity Data By Lence, Sergio H.; Plastina, Alejandro
  10. Climate Change, Drought, and Agricultural Production in Brazil By Cavalcanti, Francisco; Helfand, Steven M.; Moreira, Ajax
  11. Wildfires and Human Health: Evidence from 15 Wildfire Seasons in Chile By Arrizaga, Rubí; Clarke, Damian; Cubillos, Pedro P.; Ruiz-Tagle V., Cristóbal
  12. Multiple Testing of a Function’s Monotonicity By Wei Zhao
  13. Towards a Digital Due Diligence (or How to Integrate the Issue of the Environmental Footprint of Digital Economy in the Governance of Companies) By Caroline Devaux; Jean-Philippe Nicolaï
  14. Effective policies to promote sugar reduction in soft drinks: lessons from a comparison of six European countries By Olivier Allais; Géraldine Enderli; Franco Sassi; Louis-Georges Soler
  15. Historical Narratives About the COVID-19 Pandemic are Motivationally Biased By Philipp Sprengholz; Luca Henkel; Robert Böhm; Cornelia Betsch
  16. Giải pháp công nghệ trong lối đi tới mục tiêu trung hòa các-bon của Trung Quốc: Thép và xi-măng By Duong, Thi Minh-Phuong; Tri, Nguyen Phuong
  17. Pour une compréhension de la santé numérique et des infrastructures de données de santé par les sciences humaines et sociales By Emmanuel Didier; Catherine Bourgain; Quentin Dufour; Mathilde Godard; Elsa Supiot; Florence Jusot; Thomas Renaud
  18. Matching on Noise: Finite Sample Bias in the Synthetic Control Estimator By Joseph Cummins; Brock Smith; Douglas L. Miller; David Eliot Simon
  19. A Temporal Analysis of Prevalence, Pattern and Perception of Substance Abuse among Higher Secondary and Higher Education Students in Ernakulam District, Kerala By K M, Dr.Siby; K J, Teena Rose

  1. By: Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Alexandra Bykova (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Selena Duraković (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Meryem Gökten (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Marcus How; Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Branimir Jovanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Niko Korpar (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Bernd Christoph Ströhm (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Maryna Tverdostup (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Zuzana Zavarská (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Adam Żurawski
    Abstract: The economy of the CESEE region continues to outperform the EU average, but there are notable differences between the various sub-regions. The EU-CEE countries performed worse than expected, due to the recession in Germany, while the Western Balkan countries performed better than expected, thanks to tourism, remittances and FDI. And the CIS countries and Ukraine also did better than anticipated, as they adapted to the new reality. Inflation is proving far more persistent than previously imagined; it is driven not just by global energy prices, but also by company profits, price rises in other sectors and, most recently, higher wages. The price increases are having a serious adverse effect on people’s living standards and poverty, and some indicators have worsened dramatically. Growth in 2024 and 2025 will be lower than previously expected, on account of the global slowdown, the weak EU economy, the more persistent inflation, the tighter monetary conditions and less-supportive fiscal policy. Inflation will also be higher and will not return to 2% any time soon, as its dynamics have become far more complex and are no longer driven just by higher global energy.
    Keywords: CESEE, Central and Eastern Europe, economic forecast, Western Balkans, Visegrád group, CIS, Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, euro area, EU, convergence, Russia-Ukraine war, Russia sanctions, commodity prices, inflation, energy crisis, gas, renewable energy, electricity, monetary and fiscal policy, EU funds, purchasing power, poverty, real wages, remittances, FDI, imports, external debt, interest rates, banking sector, credit, impact on Austria, macroeconomic forecasting
    JEL: E20 E21 E22 E24 E32 E5 E62 F21 F31 H60 I18 J20 J30 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52
    Date: 2023–10
  2. By: Axelsson, Birger (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology); Song, Han-Suck (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: The Federal Reserve (the Fed) has implemented several quantitative easing (QE) programmes to stimulate the U.S. economy and increase the inflation rate after the great financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 crisis. However, when the inflation rate started to increase steeply in 2021, the Fed instead begun to implement quantitative tapering (QT) to cool down the U.S. economy and bring back inflation to it target rate. This study seeks to estimate the effect of the QE and QT programmes on the U.S. equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) index returns, while controlling for several other important macro-financial factors. The estimations show that the QE programmes significantly contributed to a long period of positive REIT returns, while the recent 2022 QT efforts has contributed significantly to the recent period of negative REIT returns. We also find that the increases in the key macro-financial factors Baa Corporate Bond Yield ad the CBOE volatility index of the U.S. stock market (VIX) result in lower REIT returns, while increases in total bank equity capital of FDIC-Insured Commercial Banks and Savings Institutions contribute to positive REIT returns. We also find that the negative initial REIT return reaction to the COVID-19 outbreak was likely outperformed by the positive impacts of the large combined monetary (QE) and fiscal stimulus packages implemented after the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis. The findings of this study show that REIT returns are highly sensitive to profound QE and QT programmes through important monetary transmission mechanisms channels such as the interest rate, asset price and risk-taking channels. This research supports REIT investors to understand how the Fed's monetary policy actions, particularly QE and QT programmes, impact the returns of the REIT index, and to adjust their investment strategies accordingly based on their expectations of future monetary policy actions and macro-financial conditions.
    Keywords: REITs; Quantitative Easing; Quantitative Tightening; Real Estate; Inflation
    JEL: E31 E41 E44 G19
    Date: 2023–09–28
  3. By: Chevaughn van der Westhuizen (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Renee van Eyden (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Goodness C. Aye (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa)
    Abstract: Economies all over the world operate monetary policy with the main objective to create stable macroeconomic environment for economic prosperity, with monetary policy typically the first line of defence against a number of internal and external shocks. This study addresses whether the effectiveness of monetary policy in South Africa is influenced by the prevailing degree of uncertainty in the domestic goods, stock and currency market as well as the degree of uncertainty in global markets. This is investigated through a Self-Exciting Interacted VAR (SEIVAR) methodology augmented with GARCH and EGARCH volatilities on monthly South African data, over the period 2000:02-2022:05 during which South Africa operated under an inflation targeting regime. Results point to the asymmetric effects of a monetary policy shock dependent on the uncertainty state and that monetary policy was less effective in the high uncertainty states. The results hold important policy implications for the policy makers, as it is imperative to understand how uncertainty alters the transmission of monetary policy through the economy.
    Keywords: Financial Markets, Generalized Impulse Response Function, Inflation, Monetary policy shocks, Non-Linear Self-Exciting Interacted Vector Auto-Regressions, Uncertainty
    JEL: C32 E32 E52
    Date: 2023–10
  4. By: Chan, Jenny (Bank of England); Diz, Sebastian (Central Bank of Paraguay); Kanngiesser, Derrick (Bank of England)
    Abstract: How does household heterogeneity affect the transmission of an energy price shock? What are the implications for monetary policy? We develop a small, open-economy TANK model that features labour and an energy import good as complementary production inputs (Gas-TANK). Given such complementarities, higher energy prices reduce the labour share of total income. Due to borrowing constraints, this translates into a drop in aggregate demand. Higher price flexibility insures firm profits from adverse energy price shocks, further depressing labour income and demand. We illustrate how the transmission of shocks in a RANK versus a TANK depends on the degree of complementarity between energy and labour in production and the degree of price rigidities. Optimal monetary policy is less contractionary in a TANK and can even be expansionary when credit constraints are severe. Finally, the contractionary effect of an energy price shock on demand cannot be generalised to alternate supply shocks, as the specific nature of the supply shock affects how resources are redistributed in the economy.
    Keywords: Energy prices; inflation; household heterogeneity; monetary policy
    JEL: E21 E23 E31 E52 F41
    Date: 2023–09–22
  5. By: Selcuk Gul; Abdullah Kazdal
    Abstract: [TR] Bu calismada, 2009-2021 donemi icin imalat sanayi sektorlerinin toplulastirilmis finansal tablolari kullanilarak imalat sanayinin mali yapisina iliskin secilmis performans gostergelerinin gelisimi zaman boyutunda ve sektorler arasinda betimleyici bir yaklasimla incelenmektedir. Bulgular, imalat sanayinde incelenen donemde ortalama olarak kisa vadeli yukumlulukleri karsilama sorunu bulunmadigina, kaldirac oraninin donem boyunca hem kisa hem uzun vadede artarak yuksek seyrettigine ve faaliyet kârliliginin artis egiliminde olduguna isaret etmektedir. Ayrica, sektorel ve olcek bazinda farklilasmalar gostermekle birlikte ortalamada bilanco ici yabanci para (YP) risklilik incelenen donemde sinirli artis kaydetmistir. ote yandan, son donemde artis egiliminde olan ihracat odakliligin dis soklara hassasiyeti belli olcude azalttigi degerlendirilmektedir. Hem YP yukumluluklerin mevcut seviyesi hem de borclulugun vadesindeki gelismeler Turk lirasi (TL) cinsinden uzun vadeli finansmanin onemine isaret etmektedir. Bu cercevede, liralasma odakli politikalarin firma bilancolarinda dolarizasyonu azaltarak YP borcluluk kaynakli riskleri sinirlamaya destek olacagi degerlendirilmektedir. ozellikle kaldirac oranlarindaki artis ile soz konusu borclulugun surdurulebildigi, finansman giderleri ve YP cinsinden riskliligin seyri goz onunde bulunduruldugunda, imalat sanayi firmalarinin oz kaynak finansmani ve TL cinsinden borclanmalarini tesvik eden politikalar on plana cikmaktadir. [EN] In this study, selected performance indicators regarding financial structure of the manufacturing industry is examined over time and across sectors with a descriptive approach by using the aggregated financial statements over the 2009-2021 period. Findings indicate that the manufacturing industry has the capability to meet its short-term liabilities, on average, over the period under consideration, the leverage ratio has increased and remained high both in the short and long term throughout the period, and the operating profitability has followed an upward trend. Besides, although it shows variations on a sectoral and size basis, on-balance sheet foreign currency risk, on average, has slightly increased over the period under review. Yet, it is considered that the export-orientation, which has been on an upward trend, has reduced the sensitivity to external shocks to some extent. Both the current level of FX liabilities and the developments in the maturity of indebtedness highlight the importance of long-term financing in Turkish lira. in this context, it is evaluated that liraization-oriented policies will help limit the risks arising from FX indebtedness by reducing dollarization in firm's balance sheets. Considering, especially, the increase in the leverage ratios, its sustainability, and the course of financing costs and foreign currency risks, policies that encourage equity financing and borrowing in the Turkish lira of the manufacturing companies stand out
    Date: 2023
  6. By: Liliana Rojas-Suarez (Center for Global Development)
    Abstract: This paper uses a straightforward Resilience Indicator, constructed from a small set of economic and institutional variables, to show that by 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent global shocks, it was possible to identify emerging markets and developing countries that would encounter serious economic and financial problems if an external shock were to materialize. The list of developing countries identified as less resilient in 2019 using this simple methodology closely aligns with the World Bank’s 2022 compilation of countries in distress or at high risk of external debt distress. Furthermore, the emerging market economies that this indicator identified as the least resilient in 2019 were countries that had either defaulted or were teetering on the edge of default by 2022. Identifying countries that are most vulnerable to large external shocks can assist policymakers and the international community in directing their efforts towards crisis prevention, thereby avoiding the detrimental consequences of financial crises on development.
    Keywords: Emerging markets, developing countries, financial crisis, debt, defaults, economic resilience, external shocks
    JEL: E60 F32 F34 G01 G15 H60 H63
    Date: 2023–10–05
  7. By: Nicolas Bonneton; Christopher Sandmann
    Abstract: This paper studies assortative matching in a non-stationary search-and-matching model with non-transferable payoffs. Non-stationarity entails that the number and characteristics of agents searching evolve endogenously over time. Assortative matching can fail in non-stationary environments under conditions for which Morgan (1994) and Smith (2006) show that it occurs in the steady state. This is due to the risk of worsening match prospects inherent to non-stationary environments. The main contribution of this paper is to derive the weakest sufficient conditions on payoffs for which matching is assortative. In addition to known steady state conditions, more desirable individuals must be less risk-averse in the sense of Arrow-Pratt.
    Keywords: non-stationary, assortative matching, random search, risk preferences, NTU
    JEL: C73 C78 D81 E32
    Date: 2023–09
  8. By: Alejandro Badel; Rishi Goyal
    Abstract: On the current pace of reforms, global gender gaps are estimated to close, using deterministic (linear or log-linear) trends, over the next three centuries. This means that many women will likely not be able to fully use their abilities and talents, to the detriment of societies, for a long time. Yet this paper shows that, absent a significant step up in policy efforts, gender gaps may in fact never close. Using Markov chains, a common approach in macroeconomics, this paper analyzes the dynamics of the cross-country distribution of the gender gap in labor force participation. This methodology does not impose strong restrictions on the data, allowing for episodes of progress as well as regress by countries on gender inequality. Based on the experience of the past three decades, the analysis predicts a further narrowing of gender gaps over time. But the long-run distribution of gender gaps in labor force participation features a substantial share of countries with persistently large gaps, implying that—absent a strengthened and systematic policy effort—some of the current misallocation of women’s talents and abilities could persist perpetually.
    Keywords: Gender Gap; Dynamics; Convergence; Cross-Country; Global; Labor Supply; Labor Force Participation; Female; Distribution; U-shaped transition.
    Date: 2023–09–15
  9. By: Lence, Sergio H.; Plastina, Alejandro
    Abstract: A very large number of productivity analyses have focused on Total Factor Productivity (TFP), the volume of aggregate output produced per unit of aggregate input, as the measure of choice. For example, industry-level TFP data series have been widely used to investigate many important economic issues, including whether productivity gains have been concentrated in a few industries and whether such gains were linked to the use of information technology (Stiroh 2002), whether automation is labor-displacing (Autor and Salomons 2018), whether the recent rise in the capital share can be attributed to increasing automation (Aghion, Jones, and Jones 2019), how GDP growth has been impacted by sectoral trends in TFP and labor growth (Foerster et al. 2022), the contributions of individual industries to U.S. aggregate TFP growth (Jorgenson, Ho, and Samuels 2019), and the reasons for the productivity gap between Europe and the United States in the late 1990s and early 2000s (van Ark, O’Mahony and Timmer 2008). Recently, growing concerns about environmental degradation and climate change have spurred interest in “environmentally-adjusted” TFP indicators, which take into account the production of undesirable by-products and externalities, as well as how intensely natural resources are used (OECD 2020b). For the agricultural sector in particular, studies based on TFP have analyzed public investments (Fuglie, Wang, and Ball 2012; Fuglie 2018; Ortiz-Bobea et al. 2021), international trade (Garcia-Verdu et al. 2019; Yuan et al. 2021), and the design of policies aimed at decoupling productivity growth from environmental pressure (OECD 2020a), among other issues. In the United States, agricultural TFP measures have been extensively used to evaluate returns to public investments (Fuglie and Heisey 2007; Alston et al. 2011; Jin and Huffman 2016), identify the drivers of productivity growth (Capalbo 1988; Schimmelpfennig and Thirtle 1999; Huffman and Evenson 2006; Alston et al. 2010; Andersen, Alston and Pardey 2012; O’Donnell 2012, 2014; Plastina and Lence 2018), evaluate convergence in productivity across states (McCunn and Huffman 2000; Ball, Hallahan, and Nehring 2004; Poudel, Paudel, and Zilberman 2011), assess spillovers between agriculture and other sectors of the economy (Lence and Plastina 2020), and gauge the impact of weather and climate on aggregate productivity (Njuki, Bravo-Ureta, and O’Donnell 2018; Sabasi and Shumway 2018; Chambers and Pieralli 2020; Ortiz-Bobea, Knippenberg, and Chambers 2018; Plastina, Lence, and Ortiz-Bobea 2021; Ortiz-Bobea et al. 2021). Given the vast literature that has applied TFP to analyze issues concerning productivity, it is not surprising that significant efforts have been devoted to the development of proper measures of the individual components of TFP (OECD 2001; Fuglie, Wang, and Ball 2012; Fuglie 2015; Shumway et al. 2017; USDA-ERS 2021), as well as to the evaluation of the relative merits of alternative aggregation methods (Szulc 1964; Eltetö and Köves 1964; Jorgenson and Griliches 1967; Caves, Christensen, and Diewert 1982a, 1982b; Bjurek 1996; Balk and Althin 1996; O’Donnell 2012, 2016; Färe and Zelenyuk 2021). Contrastingly, there has been a dearth of studies exploring the quality of real-world TFP data series. Interestingly, studies analyzing productivity usually rely on a single source of TFP data, even in cases where more TFP sources are available. Typically, no robustness analyses are conducted to assess the extent to which inferences hold using alternative TFP data sources. Implicitly, such studies assume that the underlying TFP data being used is of sufficiently high quality to yield valid inferences. However, Alston (2018) and Andersen, Alston, and Pardey (2011) --among the few studies analyzing more than a single TFP source-- provide evidence that calls this assumption into question. The lack of studies concerning the quality of real-world TFP series provides the main motivation of the present investigation. We contribute to the literature by examining the industry-level TFP series for the United States obtained from three alternative sources, namely, (1) Jorgenson, Ho, and Samuels (JHS), (2) the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and (3) the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). These three sources are of special interest because they are highly regarded and their series have been used extensively by researchers to analyze productivity (e.g., Stiroh 2002, Autor and Salomons 2018, Aghion, Jones, and Jones 2019, Foerster et al. 2022, Jorgenson, Ho, and Samuels 2019, van Ark, O’Mahony and Timmer 2008). Besides providing an empirical assessment of the relative quality of the aforementioned series, our study contributes to the literature by proposing a general method to examine the quality of alternative time series reportedly measuring the TFP of a particular entity or sector. The main goal of our study is to spur interest in the exploration of the quality of real-world TFP data series, with the aim of finding ways to enhance them and uncovering series whose quality may be deemed questionable. Our preliminary results show that, out of the 61 industry series for which TFP data from different sources are being compared, between 34 (for JHS vs. BEA) and 46 (for BEA vs. BLS) industries have inconsistent series across sources. In other words, only 31% to 64% of the industries have TFP data consistent between source pairs. These results strongly suggest that empirical analyses based on a single data source may not be sufficiently robust to draw strong inferences and implications. The results also demonstrate the need to devote greater attention to improving the reliability of TFP data.
    Keywords: Productivity Analysis, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods
    Date: 2023
  10. By: Cavalcanti, Francisco; Helfand, Steven M.; Moreira, Ajax
    Abstract: OVERVIEW. Climate change is a major challenge facing humanity, and understanding its myriad effects is important for learning how to lessen its negative consequences. Climate change is expected to alter the frequency and magnitude of natural disasters. This paper is drawn from a larger research project that studies how climate change has affected one type of natural disaster, drought, and how this has impacted agricultural production, productivity and poverty in Brazil. The research project studies: 1) whether climate change is altering the frequency, duration, and severity of droughts over more than a century, 2) how droughts have affected agricultural production in the past 50 years, 3) whether droughts affect total factor productivity (TFP) in agriculture, 4) how different dimensions of drought cause poverty, and 5) to what extent droughts affect poverty through the causal channel of TFP in agriculture. This current paper draws from the first two topics. 1. MEASUREMENT AND ANALYSIS OF DROUGHT. The first part of the paper constructs a host of short- and long-run measures of drought that all incorporate potential evapotranspiration. Some prominent studies have analyzed the frequency, duration, and severity of drought using indicators that depend mainly on the rainfall regime or vegetation index. However, despite the increase in temperature in recent decades, changes in rainfall have not exhibited a clear trend, while evapotranspiration shows the same rising trend as temperature. Drought impacts are likely underestimated without considering all factors that are influenced by global warming. This section of the paper studies whether drought has increased in Brazil in several dimensions, checking the robustness to alternative measures. Our preferred measure is a Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) that is constructed to measure short-run droughts (between 3 and 12 months), and the frequency, duration, severity and extension of longer-run droughts (measured in 5- or 10-year windows). The data on temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration used to construct the drought indicators from 1901 to 2020 are drawn from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia (CRU-UEA). They provide monthly information at a 0.5 grid level, representing approximately 55 km2. Among the many interesting descriptive findings are: a) the severity of drought increased in level and variability in the second half of the 20th century, and the level more than doubled in the most recent decade; b) drought severity has increased much more in the North and Center-West Regions of the country; c) the duration, but not frequency, of drought has followed the same pattern as the severity; and d) a decomposition of the increase in drought severity reveals that it has largely been caused by rising evapotranspiration, not by changes in precipitation. 2. IMPACTS OF DROUGHT ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION. The second part of the paper estimates the effects of drought on Brazilian agricultural production between 1974 and 2020. This section aims to understand how different types of drought measures based on the SPEI—such as long-run drought severity or duration, annual drought, and quarterly drought—differentially impact agricultural production and productivity. Because drought is a rare event, we calculate the distribution of impacts across municipalities. The data used to measure agricultural production—calculated with a Fischer quantity index—are drawn from the survey Municipal Agricultural Production (PAM) from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The data cover the 69 principal crops in Brazil—33 annual and 36 perennial—by year and municipality from 1974 to 2020. The data used to construct the drought measures were described above. We explore a variety of models to control for time-invariant and time-varying local unobservables, as well as the lagged effects of drought. After testing, we settle on a model with municipal fixed effects and state level quadratic trends. Under the assumption that droughts are exogenous to agricultural producers at the municipal level, and that unobservables are adequately controlled for, we estimate the causal impacts of drought on municipal level agricultural production. We use the estimated coefficients to calculate the distribution of drought impacts across municipalities and years. We also explore heterogeneity in the distribution of impacts by crop type, biome and sub-period, as well as decompose the impact on production into productivity and area effects. Among the many interesting results, we highlight: a) droughts that take place in the first two quarters of the year have much stronger negative effects than droughts that happen later in the year; b) as expected, droughts impact annual crops much more than perennial crops; c) across biomes, and relevant to poverty, droughts that happen in the Caatinga (semi-arid Northeast) have much more severe effects in percentage terms than in the Mata Altantica (2nd) or Cerrado (3rd); d) a drought at about the 50th percentile of impacts in the Caatinga biome has about the same impact (-20%) on production as a drought in the 1st percentile of impacts in the Cerrado biome; e) in terms of the volume of output, droughts have the largest effect in the Cerrado; and f) the impact of droughts has been increasing over time. 3. SIMULATED IMPACTS OF DROUGHT FROM 2021 to 2100 . The third part of the paper, which is in progress, conducts simulation exercises. We rely on climatological models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 (CMIP6) for alternative scenarios of what might happen to precipitation and evapotranspiration, and thus our SPEI drought measures, to simulate the impacts of drought on agricultural production in Brazil throughout the 21st century. 4. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS In progress.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy
    Date: 2023
  11. By: Arrizaga, Rubí; Clarke, Damian; Cubillos, Pedro P.; Ruiz-Tagle V., Cristóbal
    Abstract: Wildfires are increasing in frequency and intensity. We study the impact of exposure to wildfires on air pollutants and on human health in Chile, finding substantial impacts on both classes of outcomes. We use data on 15 wildfire seasons (2004-2018) matched with granular (intra-day) records of wind direction and air quality, as well as administrative records of all hospitalizations in the country. By combining the precise location of fires with wind direction at the moment in which fires occur, we estimate causal impacts of exposure to wildfires. We find considerable impacts. Exposure to a large wildfire (250 Ha) is observed to increase PM2:5 concentrations by 10% on average in municipalities up to 200km from the epicenter of the wildfire. These effects have appreciable impacts on rates of hospitalization. A one standard deviation increase in exposure to large wildfires is estimated to increase rates of respiratory hospitalizations by 0.75%, while the effect of exposure to the most extreme week of wildfires observed is estimated to increase hospitalizations by as much as a third. Effects are found to be particularly acute for infants, and to grow with the size of the exposure to wildfire (both in terms of duration and area burned).
    Keywords: natural disasters;Wildfires;Air pollution;human capital;Heal
    JEL: Q54 I18 R11
    Date: 2023–07
  12. By: Wei Zhao (University of Missouri)
    Abstract: Instead of having a “yes†or “no†result from a test of the global null hypothesis that a function is increasing, I propose a multiple testing procedure to test at multiple points. If the global null is rejected, then this multiple testing provides more information about why. If the global null is not rejected, then multiple testing can provide stronger evidence in favor of increasingness, by rejecting the null hypotheses that the function is decreasing. With high-level assumptions that apply to a wide array of models, this approach can be used to test for monotonicity of a function in a broad class of structural and descriptive econometric models. By inverting the proposed multiple testing procedure that controls the familywise error rate, I also equivalently generate “inner†and “outer†confidence sets for the set of points at which the function is increasing. With high asymptotic probability, the inner confidence set is contained within the true set, whereas the outer confidence set contains the true set. I also improve power with stepdown and two-stage procedures. Simulated and empirical examples (income–education conditional mean, and IV Engel curve) illustrate the methodology.
    Keywords: multiple testing procedure, familywise error rate, inner confidence set, outer confidence set
    JEL: C25
    Date: 2023–10
  13. By: Caroline Devaux (CDMO - Centre de droit maritime et océanique - Nantes Univ - UFR DSP - Nantes Université - UFR Droit et Sciences Politiques - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Jean-Philippe Nicolaï (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)
    Abstract: The article focuses on digital pollution, a phenomenon that includes all environmental pollution generated by digital activities. This is currently responsible for 2.5% of greenhouse gas emissions in France, an environmental impact that continues to grow with the digital transformation of our society. This article aims to explore possible regulatory solutions to lead companies to consider the environmental impact of digital technology and modify their practices. More specifically, it is proposed to integrate the risks of digital pollution in the governance of companies. In this respect, the duty of due diligence appears as a regulatory tool to be mobilized to reduce digital pollution. The article proposes a reflection on what could be a duty of vigilance for companies.
    Abstract: L'article s'intéresse à la pollution numérique, un phénomène qui comprend toutes les pollutions environnementales générées par l'activité numérique. Ce phénomène est actuellement à l'origine de 2, 5 % des émissions de gaz à effet de serre en France, un impact environnemental qui ne cesse de croître au fil de la transformation numérique de notre société. Cet article vise à explorer les solutions de régulation possibles pour conduire les entreprises à prendre en compte l'impact environnemental du numérique et modifier leurs pratiques. Plus spécifiquement, il est proposé d'intégrer les risques de pollution numérique dans la gouvernance des entreprises. À ce titre, le devoir de vigilance des sociétés mères et entreprises donneuses d'ordre est un outil de régulation à mobiliser pour engager une réduction de la pollution numérique. L'article propose ainsi une réflexion sur ce que pourrait être un devoir de vigilance numérique des entreprises.
    Keywords: Environment, Digital Pollution, Due Diligence Duty, Corporate Social Responsibility, Digital sobriety, Environnement, Pollution numérique, Devoir de vigilance, RSE, Sobriété numérique
    Date: 2022–11–03
  14. By: Olivier Allais (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Géraldine Enderli (INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, LISIS - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire Sciences, Innovations, Sociétés - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Université Gustave Eiffel); Franco Sassi (Centre for Health Economics and Policy Innovation - Imperial College London); Louis-Georges Soler (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: Background Many countries have sought to incentivise soft drinks manufacturers to reduce sugar in their products as part of efforts to address a growing prevalence of obesity. Are their policies effective? Methods Using a difference-in-differences design, we compared trends in the sugar content of 10 695 new sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) launched between 2010 and 2019 in six European markets, including the UK and France (taxes designed to incentivise reformulation), the Netherlands (policy based on voluntary agreements to reduce sugar), Germany, Italy and Spain (no national policies). Results The announcement in 2016 and adoption in 2018 of the UK tax led to yearly reductions in average sugar content of 17% (95% CI: 15–19%) to 31% (13–48%) between 2016 and 2019, compared to 2015, while the 2018 French tax produced a 6% (95% CI: 5–7%) sugar reduction only in 2018, compared to 2017, shortly after it was redesigned to provide a stronger incentive for reformulation. Voluntary agreements implemented in the Netherlands in 2014 led to an 8% (95% CI: 4–13%) sugar reduction only in 2015, compared to 2013. Conclusion The analysis supports the conclusions that sugar reductions in new SSBs have been greater in countries that have adopted specific policies to encourage them; a sugar-based tax design encourages more sugar reductions than a volume-based tax design; the tax rate and the amount of the tax reduction from switching to the next lower tier in a sugar-based tax design may be critical to incentivize reformulation.
    Abstract: Contexte De nombreux pays ont cherché à inciter les fabricants de boissons non alcoolisées à réduire la teneur en sucre de leurs produits dans le cadre des efforts déployés pour lutter contre la prévalence croissante de l'obésité. Ces politiques sont-elles efficaces ? Méthodes En utilisant un modèle de différence dans les différences, nous avons comparé les tendances de la teneur en sucre de 10 695 nouvelles boissons sucrées (SSB) lancées entre 2010 et 2019 sur six marchés européens, notamment le Royaume-Uni et la France (taxes conçues pour inciter à la reformulation), les Pays-Bas (politique basée sur des accords volontaires pour réduire le sucre), l'Allemagne, l'Italie et l'Espagne (pas de politiques nationales). Résultats L'annonce en 2016 et l'adoption en 2018 de la taxe britannique ont entraîné des réductions annuelles de la teneur moyenne en sucre de 17 % (IC 95 % : 15-19 %) à 31 % (13-48 %) entre 2016 et 2019, par rapport à 2015, tandis que la taxe française de 2018 a entraîné une réduction de 6 % (IC 95 % : 5-7 %) de la teneur en sucre seulement en 2018, par rapport à 2017, peu de temps après avoir été remaniée pour inciter davantage à la reformulation. Les accords volontaires mis en œuvre aux Pays-Bas en 2014 ont entraîné une réduction du sucre de 8 % (IC 95 % : 4-13 %) uniquement en 2015, par rapport à 2013. Conclusion L'analyse soutient les conclusions selon lesquelles les réductions de sucre dans les nouveaux BSR ont été plus importantes dans les pays qui ont adopté des politiques spécifiques pour les encourager ; une conception de la taxe basée sur le sucre encourage davantage de réductions de sucre qu'une conception de la taxe basée sur le volume ; le taux de taxe et le montant de la réduction de la taxe lors du passage au niveau inférieur suivant dans une conception de la taxe basée sur le sucre peuvent être critiques pour inciter à la reformulation.
    Date: 2023–09–11
  15. By: Philipp Sprengholz; Luca Henkel; Robert Böhm; Cornelia Betsch
    Abstract: How people recall the SARS-CoV2 pandemic is likely to prove crucial in future societal debates on pandemic preparedness and appropriate political action. Beyond simple forgetting, previous research suggests that recall may be distorted by strong motivations and anchoring perceptions on the current situation.1–6 Here, based on four studies across 11 countries (total N = 10, 776), we show that recall of perceived risk, trust in institutions and protective behaviours depended strongly on current evaluations. While both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals were affected by this bias, people who identified strongly with their vaccination status—whether vaccinated or unvaccinated—tended to exhibit greater and, importantly, opposite distortions of recall. Biased recall was not reduced by providing information about common recall errors or small monetary incentives for accurate recall, but partially by high incentives. Thus, it seems that motivation and identity influence the direction in which the recall of the past is distorted. Biased recall was further related to the evaluation of past political action and future behavioural intent, including adhering to regulations during a future pandemic or punishing politicians and scientists. Taken together, the findings indicate that historical narratives about the COVID-19 pandemic are motivationally biased, sustain societal polarization and affect preparation for future pandemics. Consequently, future measures must look beyond immediate public health implications to the longer-term consequences for societal cohesion and trust.
    Keywords: Memory, identity, polarization, motivated recall
    JEL: C91 D83 D91
    Date: 2023–09
  16. By: Duong, Thi Minh-Phuong; Tri, Nguyen Phuong
    Abstract: Trung Quốc là nền kinh tế lớn hàng đầu thế giới, vận hành với hiệu suất cao để đáp ứng nhu cầu sinh kế của hơn 1, 4 tỷ người dân, và cung cấp một lượng hàng hóa công nghệ, tiêu dùng và cả nông phẩm tới thế giới. Hệ quả tất yếu của quá trình tăng trưởng liên tục hơn 4 thập niên là việc sử dụng tài nguyên, và trong quá trình sản xuất, chế tạo, chế biến cũng sản sinh ra một lượng khí nhà kính (GHG) tích lũy khổng lồ phát thải vào khí quyển. Trong một thống kê được đăng trên The Guardian năm 2017, thế giới đã nhận thấy trong giai đoạn 1988-2015, 100 tổ hợp công nghiệp hàng đầu thế giới chịu trách nhiệm cho việc phát thải tới 71% tổng tồn lượng GHG trong khí quyển. Dẫn đầu danh sách này trên phương diện quốc gia là Trung Quốc, với thống kê chỉ 5 đại công ty Trung Quốc đã chiếm tới gần 17% tổng lượng phát thải, trong đó tổ hợp ngành than có trách nhiệm lớn nhất, tới 14, 32%. Sau những tiến bộ công nghệ vượt bậc cũng như tích lũy thặng dư nền kinh tế, quá trình hiện đại hóa ở Trung Quốc sang thời kỳ Chủ tịch Tập Cận Bình đã chuyển hướng sang bảo vệ môi trường với các mục tiêu phát thải nghiêm ngặt. Chẳng hạn như xác định nhóm ngành sản xuất gang thép với vai trò lớn trong mục tiêu giảm phát thải GHG, chính phủ và lãnh đạo công nghiệp liên tục tìm kiếm giải pháp cho sự hạn chế nguồn tài nguyên, thúc đẩy khuếch tán công nghệ, ứng dụng tiến bộ trong giảm phát thải và thu giữ, chôn lấp các-bon, thích hợp với ngành thép, dựa trên đánh giá bằng hệ thống phân tích hướng tới giải quyết mục tiêu biến đổi khí hậu có tên viết tắt “C3IAM/NET-IS.”
    Date: 2023–09–09
  17. By: Emmanuel Didier (CMH - Centre Maurice Halbwachs - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Département de Sciences sociales ENS-PSL - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales); Catherine Bourgain (CERMES3 - UMR 8211 / U988 / UM 7 - CERMES3 - Centre de recherche Médecine, sciences, santé, santé mentale, société - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - UPD5 - Université Paris Descartes - Paris 5 - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Quentin Dufour (CMH - Centre Maurice Halbwachs - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Département de Sciences sociales ENS-PSL - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales); Mathilde Godard (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Elsa Supiot (ISJPS - Institut des sciences juridique et philosophique de la Sorbonne - UMR 8103 - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Florence Jusot (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IRDES - Institut de Recherche et Documentation en Economie de la Santé - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres); Thomas Renaud (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: L'Institut Santé Numérique en Société (ISNS) a été créé en 2021 par la volonté commune de l'École Normale Supérieure et de l'Université Paris Dauphine, établissements-composantes de l'Université Paris Sciences & Lettres (PSL). Hébergé par PariSanté Campus, l'Institut a pour objectif de fédérer et stimuler les recherches en Sciences Humaines et Sociales autour de la santé numérique et des infrastructures de données de santé. Son ambition est de conduire des recherches multidisciplinaires pour explorer les enjeux éthiques, sociologiques, économiques, politiques, historiques et juridiques de la santé numérique et des pratiques relatives aux « données de santé » en termes de production, d'utilisation, de diffusion ou de protection. Les travaux de l'ISNS s'articulent aujourd'hui autour du programme de recherche « Santé Numérique en Société » (SaNSo) à travers 4 axes de travail principaux. L'axe de travail Data & quantification questionne la portée des infrastructures de données de santé, de leur conception et de leur usage, dans la production de connaissances et la décision publique. L'axe Politique s'attache à la dimension politique et citoyenne de l'utilisation des données de santé dans une perspective de démocratie sanitaire. L'axe Professions analyse les mutations induites par le développement de la santé numérique sur les métiers de la santé, leurs pratiques et leurs interactions. Enfin, l'axe Valeur cherche à conceptualiser la valeur des données de santé en tant que bien public ou privé, à la fois en termes de valorisation pour le s producteurs et de disposition à payer pour les utilisateurs et les populations. Ce programme de travail a été labellisé « Programme et Équipement Prioritaire de Recherche » (PEPR) et bénéficie à ce titre d'un financement de l'Agence Nationale pour la Recherche (ANR) dans le cadre du plan France 2030.
    Keywords: Santé, Numérique, Données de santé, SHS, ISNS, SHARE, France
    Date: 2023–09–29
  18. By: Joseph Cummins (University of California, Riverside); Brock Smith (Montana State University); Douglas L. Miller (Cornell University); David Eliot Simon (University of Connecticut)
    Abstract: We investigate the properties of a systematic bias that arises in the synthetic control estimator in panel data settings with finite pre-treatment periods, offering intuition and guidance to practitioners. The bias comes from matching to idiosyn-cratic error terms (noise) in the treated unit and the donor units’ pre-treatment outcome values. This in turn leads to a biased counterfactual for the post-treatment periods. We use Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the determinants of the bias in terms of error term variance, sample characteristics and DGP complexity, pro-viding guidance as to which situations are likely to yield more bias. We also offer a procedure to reduce the bias using a direct computational bias-correction procedure based on re-sampling from a pilot model that can reduce the bias in empirically fea-sible implementations. As a final potential solution, we compare the performance of our corrections to that of an Interactive Fixed Effects model. An empirical ap-plication focused on trade liberalization indicates that the magnitude of the bias may be economically meaningful in a real world setting.
    Keywords: Synthetic Control, Over-fitting
    JEL: C23 C52
    Date: 2023–10
  19. By: K M, Dr.Siby; K J, Teena Rose
    Abstract: Substance abuse can degenerate the very fabric of a nation by destroying its youth and is detrimental to the development prospects of its economy. The present study makes a temporal analysis of the prevalence, pattern and perception of substance abuse among Higher Secondary and Higher Education Students of Ernakulam District, Kerala. The data was collected both in years 2022 and 2023 and the study constructed three scale variables such as Risk Perception of students towards Substance abuse, Disapproval Rate Score and Perception of Drug Accessibility in order to compare Higher Secondary and Higher Education Students over years 2022 and 2023.The study makes use of Independent Sample t-tests and Two way between-group ANOVA to analyse the data. The study recommends a multipronged approach which on the one hand, cuts the sources of drug, curb the drug peddlers and enforce stringent measures on drug abuse, on the other hand promote awareness among students on the perils of drug abuse and provide counseling and rehabilitation.
    Keywords: Substance Abuse, Risk Perception, Disapproval Rate, Perception of Drug Accessibility
    JEL: I12 I18
    Date: 2023–08–31

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