nep-mac New Economics Papers
on Macroeconomics
Issue of 2023‒09‒18
twenty-one papers chosen by
Daniela Cialfi, Universita' di Teramo


  1. A single monetary policy for heterogeneous labour markets: the case of the euro area By Gomes, Sandra; Jacquinot, Pascal; Lozej, Matija
  2. UK Monetary Policy in An Estimated DSGE Model with State-Dependent Price and Wage Contracts By Chen, Haixia; Le, Vo Phuong Mai; Meenagh, David; Minford, Patrick
  3. Managing an Energy Shock: Fiscal and Monetary Policy By Adrien Auclert; Hugo Monnery; Matthew Rognlie; Ludwig Straub
  4. Can Central Banks Do the Unpleasant Job That Governments Should Do? By Vasiliki Dimakopoulou; George Economides; Apostolis Philippopoulos; Vanghelis Vassilatos
  5. Параметры фискальной политики Казахстана. // Parameters of Kazakhstan’s Fiscal Policy. By Жакупова Меруерт // Zhakupova Meruyert; Дәулетханұлы Елдос // Dauletkhanuly Yeldos; Ханетова Аякоз // Khanetova Ayakoz
  6. From bricklayers to waiters: Reallocation in a deep recession By Henry Redondo
  7. Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable By Omer Faruk Akbal; Mr. Seung M Choi; Mr. Futoshi Narita; Jiaxiong Yao
  8. Currency Areas, Labor Markets, and Regional Cyclical Sensitivity By Katheryn N. Russ; Jay C. Shambaugh; Sanjay R. Singh
  9. Climate Change Strategy and India's Federalism By Jorge Martinez-Vazquez; Farah Zahir
  10. Fiscal Policy and the Government Balance Sheet in China By Mr. Waikei R Lam; Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia
  11. Trade Liberalization versus Protectionism: Dynamic Welfare Asymmetries By B. Ravikumar; Ana Maria Santacreu; Michael Sposi
  12. CORTAX 2019 Updated calibration and baseline results By BRATTA Barbara; PYCROFT Jonathan; STOEHLKER Daniel
  13. Productivity Variation and Input Misallocation: Evidence from Hospitals By Amitabh Chandra; Carrie H. Colla; Jonathan S. Skinner
  14. International Economic Sanctions and Third-Country Effects By Fabio Ghironi; Daisoon Kim; Galip Kemal Ozhan
  15. Social economy in Italy: Dimensions, dynamics and characteristics By Carlo Borzaga; Manlio Calzaroni; Eddi Fontanari; Massimo Lori
  16. The macroeconomic effects of global supply chain reorientation By Clancy, Daragh; Valenta, Vilém; Smith, Donal
  17. Contagion Effects of the Silicon Valley Bank Run By Dong Beom Choi; Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham; Tanju Yorulmazer
  18. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LEADERSHIP STYLES AND TEACHER COMMITMENT AMONG SECONDARY SCHOOLS IN UGANDA By Kyomuhangi Speria; Kanyesigye Stella T; Ruteraho Agatha H
  19. PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES OF HINDI TEACHING IN CHINA By Yu Beibei (China)
  20. The first graduate school of Latin American economic studies (ESCOLATINA) between "autochthonous" and international logics (1956-1964) By Klüger, Elisa; Morin, Johanna Gautier; Rossier, Thierry
  21. Investigating inequality trends in Africa: ACEIR research and the WIID By Martin Wittenberg; Murray Leibbrandt

  1. By: Gomes, Sandra (Bank of Portugal, UECE/REM); Jacquinot, Pascal (European Central Bank); Lozej, Matija (Central Bank of Ireland)
    Abstract: Differences in labour market institutions and regulations between countries of the monetary union can cause divergent responses even to a common shock. We augment a multi-country model of the euro area with search and matching framework that differs across Ricardian and hand-to-mouth households. In this setting, we investigate the implications of cross-country heterogeneity in labour market institutions for the conduct of monetary policy in a monetary union. We compute responses to an expansionary demand shock and to an inflationary supply shock under the Taylor rule, asymmetric unemployment targeting, and average inflation targeting. For each rule we distinguish between cases with zero weight on the unemployment gap and a negative response to rising unemployment. Across all rules, responding to unemployment leads to lower losses of employment and higher inflation. Responding to unemployment reduces cross-country differences within the monetary union and the differences in consumption levels of rich and poor households.
    Keywords: DSGE Modelling, Business cycles, Search and matching, Monetary Union.
    JEL: E24 E32 E43 E52 F45
    Date: 2023–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:wpaper:3/rt/23&r=mac
  2. By: Chen, Haixia (Cardiff Business School); Le, Vo Phuong Mai (Cardiff Business School); Meenagh, David (Cardiff Business School); Minford, Patrick (Cardiff Business School)
    Abstract: Considerable micro-level evidence suggests that price/wage contract durations fluctuate with the state of the economy, particularly inflation; nonetheless, macro-level evidence for this is scarce. We incorporate state-dependent price/wage setting into an open economy DSGE model to investigate the evidence of state-dependence in the UK economy’s postwar behaviour. The model is estimated and tested using the Indirect Inference method and is found to fit the dynamic behaviour of key variables very well over a long sample period 1955-2021. In the state-dependent scenario, apart from the direct responses to shocks, monetary policy affects the degree to which the economy is close to the NK world, which in turn indirectly affects the response to these shocks; it also potentially pushes interest rates to the Zero Lower Bound, ZLB. Under the interaction of state-dependence and the ZLB, monetary-fiscal coordination is needed to stabilise the economy, as monetary policy alone cannot achieve economic stability during ZLB scenarios, where it must use bond purchases (Quantitative Easing, QE). Our findings suggest that a coordinated monetary-fiscal policy framework, i.e., an interest rate policy that targets nominal GDP complemented by a ZLB-suppressing fiscal policy, decreases the frequency of economic crises and enhances price/output stability and household welfare compared to the baseline Taylor Rule and QE framework.
    Keywords: State-dependence, DSGE, QE, ZLB, Monetary Policy, Nominal GDP Targeting, Fiscal Policy, Indirect Inference.
    Date: 2023–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2023/22&r=mac
  3. By: Adrien Auclert; Hugo Monnery; Matthew Rognlie; Ludwig Straub
    Abstract: This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of energy price shocks in energy-importing economies using a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model. When MPCs are realistically large and the elasticity of substitution between energy and domestic goods is realistically low, increases in energy prices depress real incomes and cause a recession, even if the central bank does not tighten monetary policy. Imported energy inflation can spill over to wage inflation through a wage-price spiral, but this does not mitigate the decline in real wages. Monetary tightening has limited effect on imported inflation when done in isolation, but can be powerful when done in coordination with other energy importers by lowering world energy demand. Fiscal policy, especially energy price subsidies, can isolate individual energy importers from the shock, but it has large negative externalities on other economies.
    JEL: E52 F42 Q43
    Date: 2023–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31543&r=mac
  4. By: Vasiliki Dimakopoulou; George Economides; Apostolis Philippopoulos; Vanghelis Vassilatos
    Abstract: We investigate what happens when the fiscal authorities do not react to rising public debt so that the unpleasant task of fiscal sustainability falls upon the Central Bank (CB). In particular, we explore whether the CB’s bond purchases in the secondary market can restore stability and determinacy in an otherwise unstable model. This is investigated in a DSGE model calibrated to the Euro Area (EA) and where monetary policy is conducted subject to the numerical rules of the Eurosystem (ES). We show that given the recent situation in the ES, and to the extent that a relatively big shock hits the economy and fiscal policy remains active, there is no room left for further quasi-fiscal actions by the ECB; there will be room only if the ES’ rules are violated. We then search for policy mixes that can respect the ES’s rules and show that debt-contingent fiscal and quantitative monetary policies can reinforce each other; this confirms the importance of policy complementarities. On the negative side, bond purchases by the CB worsen income inequality and the unavoidable reversal, in the form of QT, will come at a real cost.
    Keywords: central banking, fiscal policy, debt stabilization, Euro Area
    JEL: E50 E60 O50
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10603&r=mac
  5. By: Жакупова Меруерт // Zhakupova Meruyert (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Дәулетханұлы Елдос // Dauletkhanuly Yeldos; Ханетова Аякоз // Khanetova Ayakoz (National Bank of Kazakhstan)
    Abstract: В последние годы, особенно в свете глобальных кризисов, все большую популярность приобретает анализ фискальной политики с использованием концепции структурного баланса. Некоторые страны в целях преодоления проблемы процикличности и фискальной волатильности начали закреплять правовую базу для бюджетных правил, основанных на структурном балансе. Суть этого заключается в том, что фискальная политика, основанная на правилах, позволяет автоматическим стабилизаторам свободно работать в течение цикла и накапливать профицит бюджета в «хорошие» времена. Однако оценка структурного баланса сопряжена с рядом методологических проблем, включая степень неопределенности оценки. Настоящая работа посвящена изучению фискальной политики Республики Казахстан в период 2010 – 2022 годы путем оценивания циклически- скорректированного фискального баланса, ненефтяного фискального баланса и структурного фискального баланса с целью анализа характера фискальной политики Казахстана, в том числе с учетом сырьевой направленности нашей экономики. Результаты оценки свидетельствуют о тенденции к процикличности фискальной политики. Оценки, приведенные в данной работе, могут быть использованы для дальнейшего углубленного изучения характера фискальной политики Казахстана с использованием других методов, а также фискальными властями в целях закрепления бюджетных правил, основанных на структурном фискальном балансе. // In recent years, especially in the light of global crises, the fiscal policy analysis using the concept of structural balance has become increasingly popular. Some countries, in order to overcome the problem of pro-cyclicality and fiscal volatility, have begun to consolidate the legal framework for fiscal rules based on structural balance. The essence of this is that the rules-based fiscal policy allows automatic stabilizers to function freely through the cycle and build up budget surpluses in “good” times. However, the estimation of structural balance is associated with a number of methodological problems, including the degree of uncertainty in the estimation. This paper is devoted to the study of fiscal policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan during 2010 – 2022 by estimating the cyclically adjusted fiscal balance, non-oil fiscal balance and structural fiscal balance in order to analyze the nature of Kazakhstan’s fiscal policy, also taking into account the raw-material orientation of our economy. The estimation results point to a trend towards a pro-cyclical fiscal policy. The estimates provided in this paper can be used for further in-depth study of the nature of Kazakhstan’s fiscal policy using other methods, as well as by the fiscal authorities in order to consolidate fiscal rules based on the structural fiscal balance.
    Keywords: Kazakhstan, fiscal policy, tax and budget policy, fiscal expansion, government revenues, government expenditure, government spending, fiscal impulse, structural fiscal balance, budget deficit, non-oil deficit, oil revenues, output gap, budget revenue elasticity with respect to output gap, procyclical fiscal policy, Казахстан, фискальная политика, налогово-бюджетная политика, фискальная экспансия, государственные доходы, государственные расходы, фискальный импульс, структурный фискальный баланс, бюджетный дефицит, ненефтяной дефицит, нефтяные доходы, разрыв выпуска, эластичность доходов бюджета к разрыву выпуска, проциклическая фискальная политика
    JEL: E62 H61 H62
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:47&r=mac
  6. By: Henry Redondo (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
    Abstract: This presentation explores how the local sectoral composition influences workers' adjustment to a large economic shock. I exploit the massive burst in the Spanish construction sector during the Great Recession. For identification, I leverage regional variation in the intensity of the employment decline among Spanish provinces and detailed longitudinal administrative data. The construction workers in heavily exposed provinces suffered a significant decline in total earnings between 2007 and 2012, consistent with the workers experiencing long periods of unemployment rather than wage cuts. I find evidence that the short-term labor market adjustment was intersectoral rather than interregional, even under asymmetric exposure. In order to understand the role of sectoral composition in an individual worker's response to the shock, I construct a reallocation index. This index captures the degree to which workers from the construction sector can reallocate into other sectors. Then, I examine how sectoral composition contributes to ameliorating the shock's impact. I provide evidence that workers' likelihood of changing sectors depends on having better outside opportunities in other sectors, which varies across provinces and workers' characteristics. Individuals with more evenly distributed characteristics across sectors were less affected by the shock because they were more likely to change sectors. This implies that, on average, workers are less likely to adapt to shocks when a region has a high level of sectoral concentration.
    Date: 2023–08–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:fsug23:27&r=mac
  7. By: Omer Faruk Akbal; Mr. Seung M Choi; Mr. Futoshi Narita; Jiaxiong Yao
    Abstract: Quarterly GDP statistics facilitate timely economic assessment, but the availability of such data are limited for more than 60 developing economies, including about 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as more than two-thirds of fragile and conflict-affected states. To address this limited data availablity, this paper proposes a panel approach that utilizes a statistical relationship estimated from countries where data are available, to estimate quarterly GDP statistics for countries that do not publish such statistics by leveraging the indicators readily available for many countries. This framework demonstrates potential, especially when applied for similar country groups, and could provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions supported by empirical evidence.
    Keywords: Developing economies; fragile and conflict-affected states; GDP; low-income countries; nowcasting; sub-Saharan Africa
    Date: 2023–08–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/158&r=mac
  8. By: Katheryn N. Russ; Jay C. Shambaugh; Sanjay R. Singh
    Abstract: In his papers during the lead up to the birth of the European Monetary Union, Obstfeld considered whether the countries forming the EMU were sufficiently similar to survive a single monetary policy--and more importantly, whether they had the capacity to adjust to asymmetric shocks given a single monetary and exchange rate policy. The convention at the time was to take the United States as the baseline for a smoothly functioning currency union. We document the evolution of the literature on regional labor market adjustment within the United States, expanding on stylized facts illustrating how stratification in local labor market outcomes appears far more persistent today than 30 years ago in the context of what Obstfeld and Peri (1998) call non-adjustment in unemployment rates. We then extend the currency union literature by adding an additional consideration: differences in regional cyclical sensitivity. Using measures of cyclicality and Obstfeld-Peri-type non-adjustment, we explore the characteristics of places that can get left behind when local labor markets respond differently to national shocks and discuss implications for policy.
    Keywords: currencies; unemployment
    JEL: F15 F16 F45 F66
    Date: 2023–06–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:96581&r=mac
  9. By: Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University); Farah Zahir (The World Bank)
    Abstract: This paper calls for a stronger and closer intergovernmental coordinated approach to fighting climate change in India. We argue that the current commonly proposed approach to fighting climate change in India based on sectoral policies (energy generation, transport sectors, etc.) is incomplete because it fails to specify what level of government will be in-charge on regulating and implementing those policies and how they will be financed. This will require understanding how the institutions of fiscal decentralization are framed and operate in India. The paper takes stock of current institutions and practices involving the four pillars of fiscal decentralization. Getting the functional assignment of responsibilities right will offer an answer to the question of who will be charged with regulating and monitoring compliance with the different sectoral policies for decarbonization and adaptation. Getting the other three pillars right will allow us to answer the question of financing. India seems to have the right framework of concurrent assignments of responsibilities, with the union government establishing minimum standards to prevent a race to the bottom among the states. The main problem appears to be that currently standards and regulations are not enforced. States currently work with insufficient revenues, raising questions about the necessary fiscal space to finance their climate change policies. There is also a need to reengineer India’s current transfer policies to incentivize the states in fighting climate change. Adapting the last pillar of decentralization, borrowing, will be critical to help finance the large investments, especially in the case of adaptation programs.
    Date: 2023–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper2319&r=mac
  10. By: Mr. Waikei R Lam; Ms. Marialuz Moreno Badia
    Abstract: In this paper, we present the most comprehensive estimates of China’s government balance sheet to date. Based on these estimates, we show how major shifts in fiscal policy over the last two decades have shaped the health of the public sector prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. We find that, at US$12.5 trillion, China has the largest stock of financial assets in the world. However, its net financial worth as a percent of GDP—though still higher than the large majority of countries—has declined over the last decade. This trend can be traced back to the turn of the century when China undertook a major restructuring of its state-owned enterprises but left important shortcomings in the intergovernmental fiscal system unaddressed. Compounding these risks, reform momentum stalled in the aftermath of the global financial crisis leading to high leverage and falling profitability among state-owned enterprises.
    Keywords: Balance Sheet; China; Debt; Deficit; Local government; State-owned Enterprises; Infrastructure
    Date: 2023–08–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/154&r=mac
  11. By: B. Ravikumar (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Ana Maria Santacreu (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Michael Sposi (Southern Methodist University)
    Abstract: We investigate whether the losses from an increase in trade costs (protectionism) are equal to the gains from a symmetric decrease in trade costs (liberalization). We incorporate dynamics through capital accumulation into a standard Armington trade model and show that the welfare changes are asymmetric: Losses from protectionism are smaller than the gains from liberalization. In contrast, standard static trade models imply that the losses equal the gains. The intuition for asymmetry in our model is that, following protectionism, the economy can coast off of previously accumulated capital stock, so higher trade costs do not imply large losses immediately. We develop an accounting device to decompose the source of welfare asymmetries into three time-varying contributions: share of income allocated to consumption, measured productivity, and capital stock. Asymmetry in capital accumulation is the largest contributing factor, and measured productivity is the smallest.
    Keywords: Dynamic gains, Asymmetry, Capital, Protectionism, Liberalization
    JEL: F13 F11 E22
    Date: 2023–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smu:ecowpa:2307&r=mac
  12. By: BRATTA Barbara; PYCROFT Jonathan; STOEHLKER Daniel (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: CORTAX is a macroeconomic model that focuses on corporate taxation and is used extensively for European Commission policy assessments. As a macroeconomic model, it simulates variables such as GDP, investment and employment, while being especially notable for its focus on corporate income taxation (CIT). It models the key aspects of CIT, such as multinational profit shifting, investment decisions, loss compensation, and debt-equity financing. CORTAX is versatile and can be used to examine different aspects of CIT, such as adjusting or harmonizing the CIT rate or base, addressing debt bias in CIT, and consolidation of the multinational CIT base. CORTAX is a multi-country model, covering all EU Member States, selected partner countries, and a tax haven. The general equilibrium framework of the model captures the interactions between different economic actors, including those between multinational headquarters and foreign subsidiaries. This calibration updates the model to 2019. This paper outlines the model structure, and explains the methodology used to arrive at the new baseline, including explaining the choices of data sources and parameters. The paper provides key summary results that serve as both a description and a validation of the model, and also serves as a reference for future work carried out using CORTAX 2019.
    Keywords: Cortax
    Date: 2023–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:taxref:202307&r=mac
  13. By: Amitabh Chandra; Carrie H. Colla; Jonathan S. Skinner
    Abstract: There are widespread differences in total factor productivity across producers in the U.S. and around the world. To help explain these variations, we devise a general test for misallocation in input choices – the underuse of effective inputs and overuse of ineffective ones. Misallocation implies that conditional on total input use, the return to using a particular input is not zero (a positive return implies underuse, and a negative return implies overuse). We measure misallocation across hospitals, where inputs and outputs are better measured than in other industries. Applying our test to a sample of 1.6 million Medicare beneficiaries with heart attacks (of which 436 thousand were admitted by ambulance), we reject the hypothesis of productive efficiency; moving a patient from a 10th percentile to a 90th percentile hospital with respect to misallocation, holding spending constant, is predicted to increase survival by 3.1 percentage points. With misallocation accounting for as much as 25 percent of the variation in hospital productivity, our results suggest that how the money is spent, rather than how much money is spent, is central to understanding productivity differences both in health care, and in the rest of the economy.
    JEL: E23 I1 I10
    Date: 2023–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31569&r=mac
  14. By: Fabio Ghironi; Daisoon Kim; Galip Kemal Ozhan
    Abstract: This paper studies international trade and macroeconomic dynamics triggered by economic sanctions, and the associated welfare losses, in a calibrated, three-country model of the world economy. We assume that there are two production sectors in each country, and the sanctioned country has a comparative advantage in production of a commodity (for convenience, gas) needed to produce final, differentiated consumption goods. We consider three types of sanctions: sanctions on trade in final goods, financial sanctions, and gas trade sanctions. We calibrate the model to an aggregate of countries currently imposing sanctions on Russia (the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States), Russia, and an aggregate of third countries (China, India, and Turkey). We show that, instead of reflecting the success of sanctions, exchange rate movements reflect the type of sanctions and the direction of the resulting within-country sectoral reallocations. Our welfare analysis demonstrates that the sanctioned country’s welfare losses are significantly mitigated, and the sanctioning country’s losses are amplified, if the third country does not join the sanctions, but the third country benefits from not joining. These findings highlight the necessity, but also the challenge, of coordinating sanctions internationally.
    Keywords: Economic models; Exchange rates; International topics
    JEL: F31 F42 F51
    Date: 2023–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:23-46&r=mac
  15. By: Carlo Borzaga; Manlio Calzaroni; Eddi Fontanari; Massimo Lori
    Abstract: In the last twenty years, the interest of researchers, policy makers, national and international institutions and society in general has been growing in organizations and enterprises set up and managed in a participatory manner by non-investor actors and whose object is not the profit but rather the response to a need of the promoting group or community. These organizations are increasingly associated with the term “Social economy†. In Italy, the concept of social economy has so far been little used and research, public debate and legislative activity have favoured single components: traditional cooperatives, on the one hand, and other typologies of organizations (social cooperatives, associations and social enterprises) on the other. With the intention of contributing to filling this gap, this paper – which largely summarizes the Euricse-Istat report on the Italian social economy (2021) – aims to provide a unitary picture of the dimensions and characteristics of the entire social economy in Italy and to explore its sectoral specialization and evolutionary dynamics, showing, finally, some insights into the relationship between the presence of SEOs and variables of social interest, especially with particular reference to welfare services.
    Keywords: Italy, Statistics, Cooperative enterprises, Nonprofit institutions, Economic and employment size
    JEL: C81 J21 P13 L31
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trn:utwpeu:23125&r=mac
  16. By: Clancy, Daragh (Central Bank of Ireland and University of Limerick); Valenta, Vilém (European Central Bank); Smith, Donal (Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development)
    Abstract: Policymakers around the world are (re)considering the trade-off between efficiency and resilience inherent in global supply chains. Many have introduced legislation seeking to encourage the local production of key inputs to reduce risks from excessive dependencies on external suppliers. We analyse the macroeconomic effects of localisation policies, such as reshoring and friend-shoring production, using a novel non-tariff mechanism in a global dynamic general equilibrium model. We find that localisation policies imply transition costs and their long-term impact on aggregate domestic output are generally negative. The size (and sign) of the impact depends on whether these policies are implemented unilaterally or as part of a global shift and, most importantly, the extent to which they lead to a reduction in domestic competition and productivity. Untargeted localisation policies are also unlikely to achieve their goal of improving macroeconomic resilience, as sensitivity to regional shocks increases, while resilience to global shocks improves only marginally. Based on these findings, we provide some tentative recommendations for policymakers considering implementing a localisation agenda.
    Keywords: Euro area; Friendshoring; Reshoring; Strategic autonomy.
    JEL: F13 F41 F45 F62
    Date: 2023–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:wpaper:5/rt/23&r=mac
  17. By: Dong Beom Choi (Seoul National University); Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham (Yale University and NBER); Tanju Yorulmazer (Koç University)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the contagion effects associated with the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and identifies bank-specific vulnerabilities contributing to the subsequent declines in banks’ stock returns. We find that uninsured deposits, unrealized losses in held-to-maturity securities, bank size, and cash holdings had a significant impact, while better-quality assets or holdings of liquid securities did not help mitigate the negative spillovers. Interestingly, banks whose stocks performed worse post SVB also had lower returns in the previous year following Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. The stock market partially anticipated risks associated with uninsured deposit reliance, but did not price in unrealized losses due to interest rate hikes nor risks linked to bank size. While mid-sized banks experienced particular stress immediately after the SVB failure, over time negative spillovers became widespread except for the largest banks.
    Keywords: Contagion, Banking crisis, Bank run, Systemic risk, Interest rate risk, Hidden losses, Held-to-maturity.
    JEL: G01 G21 G14 G28 E58 E43
    Date: 2023–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:2307&r=mac
  18. By: Kyomuhangi Speria; Kanyesigye Stella T; Ruteraho Agatha H
    Abstract: This study aimed at investigating the effect of head teachers’ leadership styles on the commitment of teachers among secondary in Bushenyi-Ishaka Municipality, Uganda. The study specifically looked at: the relationship between head teachers’ democratic leadership style and commitment of teachers among secondary schools in Bushenyi-Ishaka Municipality; the relationship between head teachers’ autocratic leadership style and commitment of teachers among secondary schools in Bushenyi-Ishaka Municipality; the relationship between head teachers’ laissez-faire leadership style and commitment of teachers among secondary in Bushenyi-Ishaka Municipality. Data was collected was collected in the month of January 2022. The study employed correlational research design Data was collected from a total sample of 212 teachers (85 from government aided schools and 127 from private schools) and 6 head teachers. After organising quantitative data and entering it into the computer using SPSS, it was then analysed using descriptive statistics, correlation and regression. Qualitative was summarised, themes generated and was analysed content by content. The findings revealed that democratic, autocratic and laissez-faire had a positive and significant influence on commitment of teachers. Therefore, it was concluded that the democratic leadership style is imperative for commitment of teachers, and both autocratic and laissez-faire leadership styles are pre-requisite for commitment of teachers. Thus, it was recommended that head teachers should make effort to employ the democratic leadership style to promote for commitment of teachers, head teachers should also use autocratic leadership style to promote commitment of teachers, and that head teachers should also employ some techniques of laissez-faire leadership style to promote commitment of teachers. Key words: leadership, commitment, leadership style, teacher, teaching
    Date: 2023–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2023-46-01&r=mac
  19. By: Yu Beibei (China)
    Abstract: Hindi, the official language of India and the third most spoken language in the world is one of the ten powerful languages of the world. Apart from India, Hindi is widely spoken in many countries, such as Fiji, Mauritius, Guyana, Suriname, Nepal and United Arab Emirates etc. The development of Hindi in the countries of the world has been very rapid in the last two decades of the twentieth century. According to the population forecast released by the United Nations, India will overtake China in population by 2023 and become the most populous country in the world. There is no doubt that it will increase the influence of Hindi in the world. India and China are neighbors. Hindi teaching has also gradually developed in China with exchanges between the two countries. The present article focusses on the opportunities and challenges of Hindi teaching in China. Key words: teaching, hind, education, challenges of teaching, hind teaching
    Date: 2023–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2023-46-04&r=mac
  20. By: Klüger, Elisa; Morin, Johanna Gautier; Rossier, Thierry
    Abstract: After World War II, international organizations and research institutes dedicated to the development of local expertise thrived in Latin America. The desire to produce appropriate knowledge to solve the region's socio-economic problems raised the question of the intellectual and material autonomy of these organizations. This article combines intellectual and social history to investigate the early years of the first Graduate School of Latin American Economic Studies (ESCOLATINA), founded in Chile in 1956. The mixture of archival research, collective biography, and sequence analysis allows us to examine the tensions between, on the one hand, the quest for epistemic autonomy and rapprochement with other social sciences, and, on the other hand, the influence of the US model of graduate schools of economics together with the dependence on foreign resources and experts. The history of ESCOLATINA also reveals how the academic and political environment in Chile shaped the school and transformed it over time.
    Keywords: academic autonomy; collective biography; ESCOLATINA; sequence analysis; transnational expertise
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2023–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120060&r=mac
  21. By: Martin Wittenberg; Murray Leibbrandt
    Abstract: Work done by the African Centre of Excellence for Inequality Research (ACEIR) has documented the many-faceted nature of inequality in Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa. Conventionally measured inequality ranges from moderate (in Ghana) to extremely high (in South Africa). Trying to tell one coherent story about African inequality, however, is difficult. The construction of comparable measures across countries and across time runs into the problem that data quality varies across instruments.
    Keywords: Inequality measurement, Ghana, Kenya, South Africa, WIID
    Date: 2023
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2023-102&r=mac

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