nep-mac New Economics Papers
on Macroeconomics
Issue of 2023‒09‒04
fifteen papers chosen by
Daniela Cialfi, Universita' di Teramo

  1. The term structure of inflation forecasts disagreement and monetary policy transmission By Alessandro Barbera; Dora Xia; Sonya Zhu
  2. Current Account Balance and External Adjustment in Turkiye By Hakan Kara; Cagri Sarikaya
  3. Shadow-rate VARs By Carriero, Andrea; Clark, Todd E.; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Mertens, Elmar
  4. Analysis of the dynamic of inflation process in Nigeria: An application of GARCH modelling By Ekpeyong, Paul
  5. Advances in Deep Learning for Meta-Analysis in AI-Driven Chatbots By Jsowd, Kyldo
  6. Information Transmission between Banks and the Market for Corporate Control By Christian Bittner; Falko Fecht; Melissa Pala; Farzad Saidi
  7. Mobile money innovations, income inequality and gender inclusion in sub-Saharan Africa By Simplice A. Asongu; Peter Agyemang-Mintah; Joseph Nnanna; Yolande E. Ngoungou
  8. "Sustaining Change: Unravelling the Socio-cultural Threads of Sustainable Consumption" By Asuamah Yeboah, Samuel
  9. Digitization and Availability of Artworks in Online Museum Collections By Alexander Cuntz; Paul J. Heald; Matthias Sahli
  10. PROTECTION OF PUBLIC VALUES: EVALUATING STATE REGULATORY ENFORCEMENT ACTIVITY FROM CITIZEN PERSPECTIVE By Yuzhakov, Vladimir (Южаков, Владимир); Dobrolyubova, Elena (Добролюбова, Елена); Pokida, Andrei (Покида, Андрей); Zybunovskaya, Natalia (Зыбуновская, Наталья)
  12. Innovation and level of development in Morocco: Comparative analysis of innovation inputs and outputs according to the "Global Innovation Index" 2017 By Rhazi Zineb; Hefnaoui Ahmed
  13. Gender-Biased Technological Change: Milking Machines and the Exodus of Women from Farming By Philipp Ager; Marc Goñi; Kjell Salvanes
  14. Bridging perspectives: Key insights from a gender & youth integration learning event By Kayamba-Phiri, Fundi
  15. Synthesizing resilience: Key insights from a technical working group meeting By Kayamba-Phiri, Fundi

  1. By: Alessandro Barbera; Dora Xia; Sonya Zhu
    Abstract: The term structure of inflation forecasts disagreement in the US can be summarized by two components: disagreement about the trend inflation, and disagreement about the cyclical inflation. While the former has identical impacts on forecasts disagreement across forecasting horizons, the latter has more muted impacts on forecasts disagreement at longer forecasting horizons. Only the cyclical inflation disagreement has a significant impact on monetary policy efficacy. High disagreement about the cyclical inflation undermines the transmission of monetary policy to both real economy and financial markets. Active communication from the Federal Reserve with the general public is a useful tool to reduce inflation disagreement, especially disagreement about the cyclical inflation.
    Keywords: inflation expectation; forecasts disagreement; monetary policy transmission
    JEL: E31 E37 E52
    Date: 2023–08
  2. By: Hakan Kara (Bilkent University, Department of Economics, Ankara, Turkiye); Cagri Sarikaya (Akbank Gen. Müd., Sabancı Center, Istanbul, Turkiye)
    Abstract: This paper identifies the cyclical drivers of the current account balance (CAB) in Türkiye and assesses the relevant macro policy implications. We employ the notion of “underlying current account”, which corrects for cyclical factors such as global and domestic growth, terms of trade, as well as other exogenous factors including data revisions and idiosyncratic shocks to balance on services. We show that excessive fluctuations in the headline external deficit in recent years can be largely attributed to a combination of unusually large external shocks such as the pandemic and the war, in conjunction with a record-low domestic real interest rates. Special emphasis is put on the role of gold trade and its relation to domestic macro policies. Accounting for the impact of all factors, we estimate that the underlying CAB has shrunk from -6.4% in 2010 to a range of -0.9% to -1.6% in 2023, suggesting a substantial improvement in the external balance during the past decade. However, the underlying balance has significantly deteriorated after 2022, as the jump in inflation coupled with the quasi-fixed exchange rate regime implemented through active use of central bank reserves quickly eroded the competitiveness gains of past years. Besides, as the domestic agents have increased their demand for physical goods/assets to hedge against high inflation under ultra-low real rates, the upward shift in the demand for gold and other imported goods started to feed through the structural component of the CAB. These observations imply that, it may be challenging to lock in the recent gains in the external balance unless the authorities eventually deliver the necessary cyclical adjustment and restore the credibility of the macroeconomic policy framework by re-establishing a nominal anchor.
    Keywords: Underlying current account, Turkish economy.
    JEL: E32 E65 F32
    Date: 2023–08
  3. By: Carriero, Andrea; Clark, Todd E.; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Mertens, Elmar
    Abstract: VARs are a popular tool for forecasting and structural analysis, but ill-suited to handle occasionally binding constraints, like the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates. We extend the VAR framework by modeling interest rates as censored observations of a latent shadow-rate process, and propose an efficient sampler for Bayesian estimation of such 'shadow-rate VARs.' We analyze specifications where actual and shadow rates serve as explanatory variables and find benefits of including both. In comparison to a standard VAR, shadow-rate VARs generate superior predictions for short- and long-term interest rates, and deliver some gains for macroeconomic variables in US data. Our structural analysis estimates economic responses to shocks in financial conditions, showing strong differences in the reaction of interest rates depending on whether the ELB binds or not. After an adverse shock, our shadow-rate VAR sees a stronger decline of economic activity at the ELB rather than when not.
    Keywords: Macroeconomic forecasting, effective lower bound, term structure, censored observations
    JEL: C34 C53 E17 E37 E43 E47
    Date: 2023
  4. By: Ekpeyong, Paul
    Abstract: This study investigates the dynamics of inflation volatility in Nigeria, with a specific focus on the Food Consumer Price Index (CPI), Core CPI, and Headline CPI. The analysis utilizes the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models to capture time-varying volatility in the inflation rates. The study covers the period from January 1995 to December 2022, employing monthly data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria database. The results indicate that all three inflation series display time-varying volatility, signifying varying degrees of fluctuations and uncertainties in price movements over different periods. Furthermore, the presence of ARCH and GARCH effects in the residuals of the volatility models confirms the dynamic nature of inflation volatility. The study identifies significant structural breaks in the volatility of Food CPI during the years 2000, 2008, and 2018, emphasizing the importance of understanding the drivers of inflation volatility. External events and policy changes during these periods impacted food prices and led to shifts in volatility. Policy recommendations are made to address the challenges posed by inflation volatility in Nigeria. These include implementing price stability measures, enhancing food security, strengthening monetary policy, promoting data transparency and analysis, and undertaking fiscal reforms. The findings of this study contribute to a deeper understanding of inflation volatility in Nigeria and provide valuable insights for policymakers in formulating effective strategies to manage inflation and achieve macroeconomic stability. The study highlights the importance of monitoring inflation dynamics and implementing timely policies to ensure sustained economic growth and development in the country.
    Keywords: ARCH, Consumer price index, Headline, core, volatility, GARCH
    JEL: E6 E61 E63
    Date: 2023–07–28
  5. By: Jsowd, Kyldo
    Abstract: This paper explores the recent advances in deep learning techniques for meta-analysis in AI-driven chatbots. Chatbots have become increasingly popular in various domains, offering intelligent conversational interfaces to interact with users. Meta-analysis, as a research methodology, allows for the systematic synthesis and analysis of findings from multiple studies. Deep learning has emerged as a powerful approach within AI, enabling chatbots to understand natural language, generate context-aware responses, and improve their performance over time. This paper reviews the advancements in deep learning techniques specifically applied to meta-analysis in the context of AI-driven chatbots. It examines the utilization of deep neural networks, recurrent neural networks, and attention mechanisms in meta-analysis tasks. The paper also discusses the challenges and future research directions in leveraging deep learning for meta-analysis in AI-driven chatbots.
    Date: 2023–07–16
  6. By: Christian Bittner (Deutsche Bundesbank and Goethe University Frankfurt); Falko Fecht (Deutsche Bundesbank and Frankfurt School of Finance & Management); Melissa Pala (Deutsche Bundesbank); Farzad Saidi (University of Bonn and CEPR)
    Abstract: This paper provides evidence of deliberate private-information disclosure within banks' international business networks. Using supervisory trade-level data, we show that banks with closer ties to a target advisor in a takeover buy more stocks of the target firm prior to the deal announcement, enabling them to benefit from the positive announcement return. We do not find such effects for bank connections to acquirer advisors or for trades in acquirer stocks. Target advisors benefit from leaking information about takeover bids to connected banks, as it drives up the premium paid without compromising the probability of bid success.
    Keywords: bank networks, trading, information spillovers, mergers and acquisitions, syndicated lending
    JEL: G11 G15 G21 G24
    Date: 2023–08
  7. By: Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Peter Agyemang-Mintah (Zayed University, Abu Dhabi, UAE); Joseph Nnanna (The Development Bank of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria); Yolande E. Ngoungou (Yaoundé, Cameroon)
    Abstract: The study assesses the role of mobile money innovations on income inequality and gender inclusion in 42 Sub-Saharan African countries for the period 1980 to 2019 using interactive quantile regressions. The following findings are established. First, income inequality unconditionally reduces the involvement of women in business and politics. Second, mobile money innovations interact with income inequality to have a positive impact on women in business and politics. Third, net effects from the role of mobile money innovations in income inequality for gender inclusion are consistently negative. Fourth, given that the positive conditional or interactive effects and negative net effects are consistent across the conditional distribution of gender inclusion, thresholds at which mobile money innovations can completely dampen the negative effect of income inequality on gender inclusion are provided. Among others, policy makers should work towards improving conditions for mobile money innovations. They should also be aware that reducing both income inequality and enhancing mobile money innovations simultaneously leads to more inclusive outcomes in terms of gender inclusion.
    Keywords: Financial inclusion; inequality; mobile phones; sub-Saharan Africa; women
    JEL: G20 O40 I10 I20 I32
    Date: 2023–01
  8. By: Asuamah Yeboah, Samuel
    Abstract: This paper explores the relationship between socio-cultural factors and sustainable consumption, aiming to uncover the elements that contribute to long-term change in consumer behaviour. Sustainable consumption is recognized as a crucial aspect of achieving global sustainability goals, encompassing social, economic, and environmental dimensions. The study focuses on three key socio-cultural factors: social norms, cultural values, and social influence processes. Social norms strongly influence behaviour, as individuals conform to gain social acceptance and avoid sanctions. Aligning consumption choices with perceived norms helps individuals maintain social approval and avoid being seen as deviant. Understanding how social norms are established, transmitted, and reinforced is vital for effective promotion of sustainable consumption. Cultural values provide shared meanings that guide behaviour. Certain values, such as those emphasizing environmental protection and social responsibility, foster pro-sustainability attitudes and behaviours. Conversely, values emphasizing materialism and short-term gains hinder sustainable consumption. Exploring cultural diversity and context-specific influences sheds light on consumption patterns across societies. Social influence processes, including peer pressure and the desire for social belonging, play a significant role in driving sustainable consumption. Individuals are influenced by their social networks, such as family, friends, and opinion leaders, aligning their choices with those around them. Understanding the dynamics of social influence, including communication and social media impact, informs strategies to promote sustainable behaviours. Examining the durability of socio-cultural influences is crucial for long-term change. Research should focus on information dissemination, social learning, role modelling, and innovation diffusion mechanisms. By understanding these socio-cultural threads, interventions and strategies can be developed to encourage sustainable lifestyles and foster lasting change at individual, social, and cultural levels.
    Keywords: Sustainable consumption; Socio-cultural influences; Behaviour change; Environmental consciousness; Consumer attitudes; Social norms; Cultural values; Sustainable lifestyles
    JEL: D12 D91 Q01 Q56 Z13
    Date: 2023–04–16
  9. By: Alexander Cuntz; Paul J. Heald; Matthias Sahli
    Abstract: We provide quantitative evidence from museum collections about how copyright status affects the availability of digital images of artworks. The paper applies a regression discontinuity and differences-in-differences design to estimate online availability of artworks from U.S. collections on digital platforms. We find a strong increase in the availability of digital surrogates when copyright is perceived to expire and original artworks are likely to transition to the public domain. Moreover, artworks and surrogates made available see a large number of downstream reuses based on google image search data, which indicates online availability is of commercial and public value independent of right status. Notably, we show that upstream surrogates of public domain artworks made available by museums are positively correlated with higher image resolution quality as compared to digitized artworks still protected under copyright laws. At the same time, it seems expressed industry norms can help encourage U.S. museums to also make low-resolution surrogates of copyrighted artworks available.
    Keywords: Copyright, museum, digitization, creative industries, availability, public domain, paintings, images, empirical
    JEL: L17 O34
    Date: 2023–08
  10. By: Yuzhakov, Vladimir (Южаков, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Dobrolyubova, Elena (Добролюбова, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Pokida, Andrei (Покида, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zybunovskaya, Natalia (Зыбуновская, Наталья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The federal legislation defines a list of regulatory enforcement activities aimed at minimizing risks to legally protected public values (such as life and health, property, privacy, other human rights, plants and animals, natural habitats). Therefore, monitoring studies aiming at collecting public perceptions of the protection of these public values are highly relevant for tracking the reform progress. The goal of this paper is to identify public perceptions of the extent of protection of public values and evaluate regulatory enforcement performance. The subject of the study is regulatory enforcement activity aimed at reducing risks to the public values. The primary method of the study is a representative public survey, the findings of which are compared to earlier surveys carried out in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021. The results presented in the paper include an analysis of the dynamics in public perception of the effectiveness and efficiency of the state regulatory enforcement activities. The paper concludes that while there are some positive trends in improving public perceptions of the safety of public values, the overall level of these perceptions is unsatisfactory. Less than a half of all the survey participants have positive perceptions on any of the risks considered. The frequency of risk events remains high: half of the respondents faced at least one risk in the 2 years preceding the survey. Both time and financial costs borne by citizens applying for protection to the state regulatory and enforcement authorities have not changed significantly. This shows that the efficiency of state regulatory enforcement authorities has not improved in the public view. The novelty of the study is related to collecting and analyzing empirical data to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of state regulatory enforcement bodies, as perceived by the public. The paper recommends streamlining the procedures for handling citizen complaints to state regulatory enforcement bodies and improving public access to information on the ways of protecting public values from the risks.
    Keywords: Effectiveness, governance, public values protected by law, regulatory enforcement bodies, public sociological survey, safety perceptions, client centricity, state regulatory enforcement and inspections activity.
    JEL: H11 H41 H83
    Date: 2022–09
  11. By: Popova, Irina (Попова, Ирина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The relevance of this research is associated with the need to study the conditions of effectiveness of the secondary socialization of adolescents in a difficult life situation, caused by the deep-rooted traumatic experience in their personal development in the process of primary socialization. This issue points to the need to solve the problems of nationwide level in terms of preventing marginalization of minors and the development of criminal behavior in adolescence. The object of the study is the specifics of modeling the conditions of resocialization of adolescents in socially vulnerable categories in the Russian and foreign scientific practice. The goal of the study is to analyze scientific approaches and developments that provide a theoretical and methodological rationale and effectiveness of practical activities to create conditions for resocialization of adolescents in difficult situations. We carried out the research based on the results of content analysis of Russian dissertation research in the period from 2000 to 2021 and foreign scientific articles dedicated to the stated problems. Research methods: analysis of information sources, content analysis of dissertation studies and scientific publications, systematization, analysis and synthesis of the information obtained. The scientific novelty of the study is determined by the assessment of the current development of the resocialization problems of socially vulnerable minors in modern Russian scientific research. This is the first time such a study is conducted in the Russian Federation. As a result, we found that the issues of juvenile resocialization are developed in the studies conducted within the framework of penitentiary pedagogy and psychology on a systemic basis. Only a few studies on this topic exist as part of the general education system. The majority (more than 60%) of Russian scientific research on juvenile resocialization covers adolescents with experience of deviant and delinquent behavior, including those sentenced to punishment. Other categories of socially vulnerable adolescents are either not covered at all, or covered within isolated precedents. Questions of resocialization of children raised in migrant families are the most difficult to study. Currently, there is a trend of substituting the term “resocialization” with such categories as “cultural adaptation” and “social integration” in relation to this group of adolescents. Based on the results obtained, the main conclusion is that the development of research on the study of resocialization of adolescents in vulnerable categories needs a focused analysis of promising directions, covering the methodology of the issue and different target groups of minors, not focusing only on the resocialization of adolescent offenders. Recommendations: to create required conditions and implement effective pedagogical activities aimed at supporting the resocialization of adolescents in socially vulnerable categories, it is necessary to disseminate among practicing education specialists the scientific developments proven by the testing and implementation results. It is necessary to stimulate the development of relevant scientific research that reveals aspects of resocialization of not only adolescents sentenced to punishment, with deviant/delinquent behavior, but also adolescents belonging to other groups of children in difficult situations (teenagers from poor families, from migrant/resettled families, children without parental care, unwatched/neglected children, victims of armed conflicts, victims of objective life circumstances, including domestic violence, parental neglect, health conditions, etc.).
    Keywords: resocialization phenomenon; adolescents in a difficult life situation; resocialization of minors; resocialization processes for socially vulnerable adolescents; scientific approaches and concepts of juvenile resocialization; principles of adolescent resocialization; modeling conditions of juvenile resocialization; models of resocialization of adolescents in a difficult life situation
    Date: 2022–08
  12. By: Rhazi Zineb (doctorante chercheuse en sciences économiques et de gestion à la faculté des sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales de Mohammedia); Hefnaoui Ahmed (Professeur de l’enseignement supérieur à l’université Hassan II, faculté des sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales de Mohammedia)
    Abstract: This exploratory study aims to determine the link between innovation and economic development in different types of countries, and Morocco in particular, based on the Global Innovation Index. The main objective is to identify the impact of innovation on Morocco's economic development, focusing on its global positioning in terms of innovation according to the 2017 Global Innovation Index, and then to compare it to a sample of countries. To achieve this, on the one hand a principal component analysis has been carried out, and on the other, a linear regression is run to demonstrate the link between innovation and economic development. The development of this econometric model is determined by linking the level of development with measures of innovation, geography and trade openness. The results obtained from the two analyses show a strong positive relationship between level of development and innovation. The study's conclusions endorse the quadratic relationship between development and innovation capacity, with an average level of innovation in Morocco.
    Abstract: Cette étude, à but exploratoire vise à déterminer le lien entre l'innovation et le développement économique des différents types de pays et précisément le Maroc en se basant sur le « Global Innovation Index». L'objectif principal est d'identifier l'impact de l'innovation sur le développement économique du Maroc en mettant l'accent sur son positionnement au niveau mondial en matière d'innovation selon l'indice global de l'innovation 2017 et à le comparé ensuite, à un échantillon de pays. Pour ce faire, d'une part une analyse en composante principale a été effectuée et d'autre part, une régression linaire est menée pour démontrer le lien existant entre l'innovation et le développement économique. L'élaboration de ce modèle économétrique est déterminée par le fait de mettre en relation le niveau de développement avec des mesures de l'innovation, de la géographie et de l'ouverture commerciale. Les résultats obtenus des deux analyses, montrent l'existence d'une forte relation positive entre le niveau de développement et l'innovation. Les conclusions de l'étude approuvent le lien quadratique du développement et de les capacités d'innovation avec un caractère moyen du niveau d'innovation au Maroc.
    Keywords: Innovation, Economic development, GII Innovation Indicator, economic growth, ACP ., Développement économique, Indicateur de l’innovation GII, croissance économique, ACP.
    Date: 2023
  13. By: Philipp Ager (University of Mannheim); Marc Goñi (University of Bergen); Kjell Salvanes (Norges Handelshøyskole)
    Abstract: This paper studies the link between gender-biased technological change in the agricultural sector and structural transformation in Norway. After WWII, Norwegian farms began widely adopting milking machines to replace the hand milking of cows, a task typically performed by women. Combining population-wide panel data from the Norwegian registry with municipality-level data from the Census of Agriculture, we show that the adoption of milking machines triggered a process of structural transformation by displacing young rural women from their traditional jobs on farms in dairy-intensive municipalities. The displaced women moved to urban areas where they acquired a higher level of education and found better-paid employment. These findings are consistent with the predictions of a Roy model of comparative advantage, extended to account for task automation and the gender division of labor in the agricultural sector. We also quantify significant inter-generational effects of this gender-biased technology adoption. Our results imply that the mechanization of farming has broken deeply rooted gender norms, transformed women’s work, and improved their long-term educational and earning opportunities, relative to men.
    Keywords: agriculture, World War II, geographic mobility
    JEL: J16 J24 J43 J61 N34 O14 O33
    Date: 2023–08
  14. By: Kayamba-Phiri, Fundi
    Abstract: In light of the need to learn from and collaborate with other USAID implementing partners on effectively addressing the issues that affect women and youth in their programming, Titukulane organized a focused event in September 2022. Prioritizing the engagement of women and youth in all development activities has immense importance and needs more emphasis. This is particularly true for projects that aim to create lasting impact and positive change in communities. Titukulane, through USAID's Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance, organized a collaborative meeting with USAID Implementing Partners in Malawi. Through this effort, the implementing partners identified potential areas for integration and collaboration that can further enhance the impact of development programs.
    Keywords: MALAWI; SOUTHERN AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; women; youth; development; social analysis; communities; gender norms
    Date: 2023
  15. By: Kayamba-Phiri, Fundi
    Abstract: Titukulane was designed to reduce the number of chronically food insecure households by enhancing the capacities of local and national governance structures to implement resilience-focused policies. To achieve this Titukulane is implementing interventions that buildresilience and improve food security and nutrition outcomes for communities. Specifically, under Purpose area 3, these interventions are aimed at building institutional and local capacities to reduce risk and increase resilience among ultra-poor and chronically vulnerable households.Specific interventions implemented under Purpose 3 are disaster risk management, natural resource management and overall coordination of the National Resilience Strategy especially at district level.
    Keywords: MALAWI; SOUTHERN AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; food insecurity; capacity development; resilience; nutrition; poverty; natural resources management; disaster risk management
    Date: 2023

This nep-mac issue is ©2023 by Daniela Cialfi. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.