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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Greg Kaplan; Georgios Nikolakoudis; Giovanni L. Violante |
| Abstract: | We study equilibria in a heterogeneous-agent incomplete-market economy with nominal government debt and flexible prices. Unlike in representative agent economies, steady-state equilibria exist when the government runs persistent deficits, provided that the level of deficits is not too large. In these equilibria, the real interest rate is below the growth rate of the economy. We quantify the maximum sustainable deficit for the US and show that it is lower under more redistributive tax and transfer systems. With constant primary deficits, there exist two steady-states, and the price level and inflation are not uniquely determined. We describe alternative policy settings that deliver uniqueness. We conduct quantitative experiments to illustrate how redistribution and precautionary saving amplify price level increases in response to fiscal helicopter drops, deficit expansions, and loose monetary policy. We show that rising primary deficits can account for a decline in the long-run real interest rate, leading to higher inflation for any given monetary policy. Our work highlights the role of household heterogeneity and market incompleteness in determining inflation. |
| JEL: | E3 E4 E5 E6 H2 H3 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31433&r=mac |
| By: | Isabel Gödl-Hanisch; Manuel Menkhoff |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the pass-through of cost-push shocks to customers at a granular level. Using unique firm-level survey data, we document five facts about pass-through across firms, sectors, and over time. We highlight a new channel relevant for pass-through: beliefs about the expected duration of the shock and its interaction with price rigidities. We then employ a hypothetical vignette to study the causal effect of nominal and real rigidities as well as the nature of the shock - size, duration, and economic environment - on pass-through. We observe gradual pass-through stretching over 24 months, especially for idiosyncratic shocks, undershooting the pass-through of aggregate shocks by 40%, in line with the presence of real rigidities. The survey design further allows us to infer the implied slope of the Phillips curve, which flattens after accounting for strategic complementarities. |
| Keywords: | pass-through, cost shocks, firms, heterogeneous expectations, uncertainty, nominal rigidities, real rigidities |
| JEL: | E24 E31 E50 E60 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10520&r=mac |
| By: | Gautier, Erwan; Karadi, Peter; Conflitti, Cristina; Fabo, Brian; Fadejeva, Ludmila; Fuss, Catherine; Kosma, Theodora; Jouvanceau, Valentin; Martins, Fernando; Menz, Jan-Oliver; Messner, Teresa; Petroulas, Pavlos; Roldan-Blanco, Pau; Rumler, Fabio; Santoro, Sergio; Seward, Domingos; De Veirman, Emmanuel; Wieland, Elisabeth; Wintr, Ladislav; Wursten, Jesse; Zimmer, Hélène; Amann, Juergen; Faber, Riemer; Bachiller, Javier Sánchez; Stanga, Irina |
| Abstract: | This paper documents five stylised facts relating to price adjustment in the euro area, using various micro price datasets collected in a period with relatively low and stable inflation. First, price changes are infrequent in the core sectors. On average, 12% of consumer prices change each month, falling to 8.5% when sales prices are excluded. The frequency of producer price adjustment is greater (25%), reflecting that the prices of intermediate goods and energy are more flexible. For both consumer and producer prices, cross-sectoral heterogeneity is more pronounced than cross-country heterogeneity. Second, price changes tend to be large and heterogeneous. For consumer prices, the typical absolute price change is about 10%, and the distribution of price changes shows a broad dispersion. For producer prices, the typical absolute price change is smaller, but nevertheless larger than inflation. Third, price setting is mildly state-dependent: the probability of price adjustment rises with the size of price misalignment, mainly reflecting idiosyncratic shocks, but it does not increase very sharply. Fourth, for both consumer and producer prices, the repricing rate showed no trend in the period 2005-19 but was more volatile in the short run. Fifth, small cyclical variations in frequency did not contribute much to fluctuations in aggregate inflation, which instead mainly reflected shifts in the average size of price changes. Consistent with idiosyncratic shocks as the main driver of price changes, aggregate disturbances affected inflation by shifting the relative number of firms increasing or decreasing their prices, rather than the size of price increases and decreases. JEL Classification: E3, E5 |
| Keywords: | consumer prices, price stickiness, producer prices, scanner data. |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2023319&r=mac |
| By: | Guillochon, Justine; Le Roux, Julien |
| Abstract: | The Global Financial Crisis established that policymakers should consider the stage of the financial cycle to better evaluate the cyclical position of the economy when designing monetary policy decisions. If financial variables are omitted from the estimations of the output gap, a common and unobserved indicator of the business cycle, important financial or external imbalances that may lead to future recessions may not be captured. This paper presents a suite of estimates of output gaps incorporating financial variables. The estimates are based both on small unobserved components models and a large unobserved components model that follows a production function approach. The results show that exploiting the information content of financial variables, which co-move strongly with the output cycle, can sometimes improve output gap estimates. However, these improvements are of a limited magnitude and very sensitive to the choice of the chosen financial variables. JEL Classification: C32, E32, E44, E47, E52 |
| Keywords: | financial cycle, monetary policy, Output gap, potential output, unobserved com-ponents model |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232832&r=mac |
| By: | Jesus Crespo Cuaresma (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Oscar Fernandez (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | We examine the empirical determinants of sovereign yield synchronization dynamics in the European Monetary Union. Using a time-varying measure of (long-term) government bond yields synchronization and Bayesian Model Averaging methods, we show that the persistence of synchronization measures differs significantly between GIIPS countries (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain) and the rest of the monetary union, as well as across periods characterized by whether the zero lower bound of interest rates was binding or not and the post-Draghi whatever it takes era. The degree of synchronization in inflation rates with the rest of the currency area is a robust predictor of the synchronization of sovereign yields, as opposed to economic fundamentals describing the fiscal positions of individual countries. An out-of-sample forecasting exercise reveals that accounting for the most relevant economic fundamentals within the monetary union can lead to improvements in the directional accuracy of the forecasts of yield synchronization rates only for GIIPS countries. |
| Keywords: | Long-term government bond yields, European Monetary Union, Synchronization measures, Bayesian Model Averaging |
| JEL: | C11 C33 C52 F45 H63 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp344&r=mac |
| By: | Eizo Kawai |
| Abstract: | This study perceives an unacceptable unreality of a macro price mechanism: i.e., the unreality that under any severe recession, worsening deflation, or a consistent decline in the rate of inflation will lead an economy to full employment equilibrium. This unreality is a result of an arbitrary assumption that the micro price mechanism operates even in a macroeconomy: a fallacy of composition. This study challenges the modern macroeconomics theories on price mechanism and unemployment based on the skepticism toward existing theories. This study gets the following two conclusions: First, in a macroeconomy, market failure occurs because the price mechanism does not function, especially under deflation. Consequently, even if nominal values are sufficiently flexible, steady-state and thus full employment equilibrium do not hold. In other words, there is no macro general equilibrium corresponding to a micro general equilibrium. Market failure in a short-run macroeconomy is because of the unavoidable spillover effects, or the derived demand effects between goods and labor markets under disequilibrium from rigid wages and prices. Market failure would occur even in the long-term macroeconomy as an inevitable conjecture from the short-run analysis. For the above analyses, a static model is sufficient, and dynamic models are unnecessary and theoretically unfeasible. Second, Keynes' unemployment equilibrium is realized owing to market failure in a macroeconomy. It shows that involuntary unemployment results from quantitative and not price aspects. In other words, the unemployment results from shortage in labor demand under rigid real wages and not under rigidity of real wages. Final section shows three novel proposals for future contributions of this study's implications. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcr:wpaper:e186&r=mac |
| By: | Sulkhan Tabaghua (Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University) |
| Abstract: | Empirical experience in many countries shows that governments spend more than they can afford. In order to ensure long-term economic stability and support economic growth, most countries have established legal restrictions on fiscal parameters, which significantly reduce the possibility of exceeding the quantitative or qualitative limits set by the government. In economic literature, this type of limitation is known as "fiscal rules". Different topics of fiscal policy have been the subject of scientific research for many years, but research around fiscal rules have become more common in recent times. The actuality of this topic has increased in the conditions of covid19 crisis, which led to the reduction in economic growth in many countries, including Georgia, and a deterioration in a number of macroeconomic parameters (notably, a rapid increase in debt and budget deficit). Pandemic has been a massive test of the fiscal rules.Scientific literatures underline fiscal rules importance for long-term economic growth and macroeconomic sustainability. Thus, the pandemic challenges raise the issue of updating and assessing the effectiveness and flexibility of rules during the economic crisis. During the past two decades, a growing number of countries across the world have adopted rules-based fiscal frameworks. As of end-2021, about 105 economies have adopted at least one fiscal rule, 11 countries more than the last update in 2015 and 96 countries more than 1985.The present article highlights the impact of covid19 shocks on fiscal rules and economic growth, with particular attention to post-pandemic (Covid19) recovery. The given analysis creates a precondition for the further development of this topic in the future, to expand the relevant econometric model for calibration of fiscal rules, assessment effectiveness of fiscal limits in the context of post-pandemic economic recovery. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Rules, Covid19 Shocks, Economic Growth, Economic Recovery, Debt, Deficit. |
| JEL: | O40 E62 H61 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:13215677&r=mac |
| By: | Kozo Ueda (Waseda University); Kota Watanabe (Canon Institute for Global Studies and University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how strategic and heterogeneous price setting influences the real effect of monetary policy. Japanese data show that firms with larger market shares exhibit more frequent and larger price changes than those with smaller market shares. We then construct an oligopolistic competition model with sticky prices and asymmetry in terms of competitiveness and price stickiness, which shows that a positive cross superelasticity of demand generates dynamic strategic complementarity, resulting in decreased price adjustments and an amplified real effect of monetary policy. Whether a highly competitive firm sets its price more sluggishly and strategically than a less competitive firm depends on the shape of the demand system, and the empirical results derived from the Japanese data support Hotelling's model rather than the constant elasticity of substitution preferences model. Dynamic strategic complementarity and asymmetry in price stickiness can substantially enhance the real effect of monetary policy. |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf565&r=mac |
| By: | Kaelo Mpho Ntwaepelo |
| Abstract: | This study uses Brazil as a laboratory to evaluate the effect of increasing the deposit insurance coverage limit, on bank stability and financial development. It uses a unique dataset that accounts for the multidimensional nature of financial development by capturing accessibility, depth and efficiency in financial markets and institutions. The empirical analysis utilises the synthetic control method to address the ambiguity concerns of choosing a comparison unit. In addition to estimating the effect of the policy interventions, the method creates an algorithm to identify a weighted combination of countries that have similar characteristics to Brazil. The countries are used as control units to set up a simulation that is reflective of the hypothetical absence of the policy intervention. The results suggest that increasing the coverage limit induces a trade-off between bank stability and financial development. More specifically, a generous deposit insurance supports financial development at the cost of bank stability, during the non-crisis period. However, when there is an economic crisis, the stabilising effect of deposit insurance dominates the moral hazard effect. |
| Keywords: | deposit insurance, financial development, bank stability, synthetic control method |
| JEL: | G21 G28 O1 |
| Date: | 2023–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2023-09&r=mac |
| By: | Priyaranjan Jha; Rahul Mukherjee |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of globalization on the ability of governments to generate tax revenues for the financing of national welfare states. In this context, it summarizes the theoretical predictions of various economic models of tax competition between countries and discusses the role of factor mobility and country-specific characteristics such as size and factor abundance. It then draws on existing empirical evidence to outline the effects of globalization on capital, labor and consumption taxes. It touches on recent trends in income tax incentives for highly skilled workers, the challenges related to digital platforms, and ends with a discussion of recent attempts at international tax coordination among countries, including the OECD BEPS initiative. |
| Keywords: | globalization, welfare state, tax competition, corporate taxation, income taxation, global tax coordination |
| JEL: | F21 F22 F23 F62 F68 H11 H21 H25 H71 J61 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10522&r=mac |
| By: | Vuong, Quan-Hoang; Tri, Nguyen Phuong; Jin, Ruining; Hoang, Giang; La, Viet-Phuong; Le, Tam-Tri; Nguyen, Minh-Hoang |
| Abstract: | Emotions are fundamental elements driving humans’ decision-making and information processing. Fear is one of the most common emotions influencing investors’ behaviors in the stock market. Although many studies have been conducted to explore the impacts of fear on investors’ investment performance and trading behaviors, little is known about factors contributing to and alleviating investors’ fear during the market crash (or extremely volatile periods) and their fear regulation after the crisis. Thus, the current data descriptor provides details of a dataset of 1526 Chinese and Vietnamese investors, a potential resource for researchers to fill in the gap. The dataset was designed and structured based on the information-processing perspective of the Mindsponge Theory and existing evidence in life sciences. The Bayesian Mindsponge Framework (BMF) analytics validated the data. Insights generated from the dataset are expected to help researchers expand the existing literature on behavioral finance and the psychology of fear, improve the investment effectiveness among investors, and inform policymakers on strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of market crashes on the stock market. |
| Date: | 2023–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:54z9y&r=mac |
| By: | Yimam, Seid; Asmare, Fissha; Moore, Mick |
| Abstract: | It is widely believed that the existence of ‘informal sector’ enterprises that visibly do not pay direct taxes reduces the willingness of owners of formal, tax-registered enterprises to pay their own taxes. We call this the adverse evasion spillover hypothesis. It is for several reasons hard to test this hypothesis, especially in this most general form. We test a more focused version, with two components. One is that the levels of tax compliance of formal firms are reduced when those firms perceive that they are adversely affected by direct economic competition from informal enterprises. The other is that these effects are especially marked for smaller formal sector firms. Two particular procedures enabled us to collect the data needed to test these hypotheses in a satisfactory way. First, the Ethiopian Ministry of Revenue kindly gave us access to ten years of their administrative data relating to a representative sample of 408 tax-registered firms located in Addis Ababa. Because these records included information on whether firms had been penalised for attempts to understate their tax obligations, we were able to divide our sample into two groups of more and less compliant firms. We then surveyed the owners of those firms, adding in questions about their perceptions of the extent to which they felt adversely affected by competition from informal enterprises, but giving no hint that we were especially interested in tax compliance, or that we had access to their tax compliance record. Our two hypotheses were validated. The more that formal, tax-registered firms perceived that they faced market competition from informal enterprises, the lower were their levels of tax compliance. This adverse impact of perceived competition on tax compliance was greater for smaller formal, tax-registered enterprises. |
| Keywords: | Finance, Trade, Work and Labour, |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idq:ictduk:18056&r=mac |
| By: | Roida Rzayeva (Institute of Oriental Studies named after academician Z.M.Bunyadov Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences) |
| Abstract: | The consciousness and behaviour in a society are under the influence of ideas broadcasted, to varying degree, in a society. Human consciousness is formed under the influence of two interconnected and complementary components: both external influences of the social environment, and subjective display of personal qualities. At the same time life in society and the estimation of a society and its phenomena makes an individual a social and political being.In this context, it is necessary, especially to note a role of media in ideas distribution today. The ideas in a society is broadcast through mass media. The information resources are a condition of adequate expression and inculcating corresponding ideas and interests in human consciousness. Today, they more often say about soft power. «Soft power» today is one of displays of changing shifts in policy. One of the sources of this power is cultural appeal. We cannot deny political effect of mass culture, in particular within the limits of information, ideological antagonism. Soft power, in the broad context, is not only culture.The central place in the concept of ?soft power? is occupied by the information. The means, methods and technologies of information-psychological influence on mass consciousness become the powerful geopolitical weapon today. «Soft power» is considered the capability of management of mass consciousness by means of influence on system of people?s values, their outlook and civilizational-cultural codes. In this measurement «soft power» is considered as the new and modern form of ideology. For example, democratic societies are characterised not so much by the right of a free choice of values, but inculcating in individual consciousness of social studies and mass culture in which basic values play the major role. «Soft power» as the major resource of influence in the modern global world uses public diplomacy (cultural, educational, sports, media, scientific, etc. projects) for interaction with elite and a society of other countries and formations of an attractive image of the country, its positive image and corresponding foreign public opinion on it. |
| Keywords: | Public Consciousness, Information Wars, Soft Power, Media, Culture. |
| JEL: | D78 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:11615675&r=mac |
| By: | Nicola Campigotto; Marco Catola; Simone D’Alessandro; Pietro Guarnieri; Lorenzo Spadoni |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the potential of voluntary consumption quotas as a strategy to address resource supply shortages. The results of an incentivized online experiment are presented in which a Nash demand game was used to model an energy consumption problem. Participants had the option to join an energy conservation programme by accepting a consumption quota. Those who accepted the quota traded off their maximum demand for energy in exchange for the certainty that their demand would be met, while those who rejected the quota could demand and possibly earn more but risked suffering from a power outage, in which case they received nothing. Three different quota schemes are examined, and their policy implications are discussed. Our findings suggest that voluntary quotas may lead to a significant decrease in overall demand and contribute to enhancing consumption security. |
| Keywords: | energy consumption, online experiment, Nash demand game, power outages, voluntary quotas |
| JEL: | C72 C99 Q48 |
| Date: | 2023–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2023/299&r=mac |
| By: | Daniel Krähmer (Ludwig-Maximilians-University, Munich) |
| Abstract: | Multifactorial designs are used to study the (joint) impact of two or more factors on an outcome. They typically occur in conjoint, choice, and factorial survey experiments but have recently gained increasing popularity in field experiments, too. Technically, they allow researchers to investigate moderation as an instance of treatment heterogeneity by crossing multiple treatments. Naturally, multifactorial designs quickly spawn a spiraling number of distinct treatment combinations: even a moderately complex design of two factors with three levels each yields 32 unique combinations. For more elaborate setups, full factorials can easily produce dozens of distinct combinations, rendering the visualization of results difficult. This presentation introduces the new Stata command mfcurve as a potential remedy. Mimicking the appearance of a specification curve, mfcurve produces a two-part chart: the graph’s upper panel displays average effects for all distinct treatment combinations; its lower panel indicates the presence or absence of any level given the respective treatment condition. Unlike existing visualization techniques, this enables researchers to plot and inspect results from multifactorial designs much more comprehensively. Highlighting potential applications, the presentation will demonstrate mfcurve’s most important features and options, which currently include replacing point estimates by box plots and testing results for statistical significance. |
| Date: | 2023–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:dsug23:03&r=mac |
| By: | Beestermöller, Matthias Gerhard; Jessen-Thiesen, Levke; Sandkamp, Alexander-Nikolai |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of the largest rail strikes in German history on intercity buses - a then newly liberalised market. Using unique booking data of bus services, we exploit variation in rail service cancellations across routes to show that the disruption in rail transport increases bus ticket sales. Crucially, the effect persists beyond the strike, indicating that travellers do not return to their originally preferred mode of transport. It is particularly pronounced for passengers travelling on weekends. The findings suggest that customers were previously under-experimenting. Beyond transportation, our results highlight the importance of service reliability, as temporary disruptions can cause customers to permanently switch to competitors. |
| Keywords: | Experimentation, inter-modal substitution, learning, optimisation, strike, switching costs, transport |
| JEL: | C81 D83 L92 R41 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2251&r=mac |
| By: | Spyros Galanis (Durham University); Christos A. Ioannou (Universite Paris 1 Pantheon - Sorbonne, Paris, France); Stelios Kotronis (Durham University) |
| Abstract: | We study information aggregation in a dynamic trading model. We show theoretically that separable securities, introduced by Ostrovsky (2012) in the context of Expected Utility, no longer aggregate information if some traders have imprecise beliefs and are ambiguity averse. Moreover, these securities are prone to manipulation as the degree of information aggregation can be influenced by the initial price set by the uninformed market maker. These observations are also confirmed in our laboratory experiment using prediction markets. We define a new class of strongly separable securities, which are robust to the above considerations, and show that they characterize information aggregation in both strategic and non-strategic environments. We derive several testable predictions, which we are able to confirm in the laboratory. Finally, we show theoretically that strongly separable securities are both sufficient and necessary for information aggregation but, strikingly, there does not exist a security that is strongly separable for all information structures |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dur:durham:2023_04&r=mac |
| By: | A.C. Pinate; A. Faggian; M.G. Brandano |
| Abstract: | The recent COVID-19 pandemic crisis affected all economic sectors, but in particular tourism. In fact, it is now almost unquestionable that the tourism sector was hit the hardest. However, the resilience of domestic and international tourism, and its capacity to rebound from crises, has also been recognized. In this context, the aim of this paper is twofold. First, to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on tourism flows in Italy, by looking at NUTS-3 level data on national and international tourism arrivals. Second, to understand whether, and to what extent, some "alternative" destinations benefited during the pandemic. Spatial and geostatistical analyses are used to capture the determinants of the variation in tourism flows in 2020 and 2021 compared with the pre-pandemic year (2019). Results show different scenarios in the two periods analyzed, demonstrating that tourist behaviors started to change, and they are still evolving. |
| Keywords: | tourism flows;spatial analysis;short-term resilience;italy;COVID-19 pandemic |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:202309&r=mac |
| By: | Guillaume Denos (IAE Angers - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Angers - UA - Université d'Angers, GRANEM - Groupe de Recherche Angevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the role that sociomaterial systems can play in the dynamics of the emergence of social innovations within territories. The articulation of the theoretical frameworks of social innovation, neo-institutionalism and management tools is exposed and used for the analysis of Popcorn, a support system created in Nantes in France. Exploring the conception and use of this system, which tends to spread to neighbouring territories, allows us to understand their role as structuring intermediaries and their potential in making each territory spaces for social experimentation. |
| Abstract: | Cet article interroge le rôle que peuvent jouer les dispositifs sociomatériels dans la dynamique d'émergence d'innovations sociales sur les territoires. L'articulation des cadres théoriques de l'innovation sociale, du néo-institutionnalisme et des outils de gestion est exposée puis utilisée pour l'analyse du dispositif Popcorn, à Nantes dans la Loire-Atlantique. L'exploration de la conception et de l'usage de ce dispositif, qui tend à s'essaimer dans les territoires voisins, permet d'entrevoir les rôles d'intermédiaires structurants des dispositifs et leur participation à faire de chaque territoire des espaces d'expérimentations sociales. |
| Keywords: | Innovation sociale, Territoire, Dispositif, Recherche-action |
| Date: | 2022–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04129285&r=mac |
| By: | White, Justin S; Basu, Sanjay; Kaplan, Scott; Madsen, Kristine A; Villas-Boas, Sofia B; Schillinger, Dean |
| Abstract: | Background While a 2021 federal commission recommended that the United States government levy a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax to improve diabetes prevention and control efforts, evidence is limited regarding the longer-term impacts of SSB taxes on SSB purchases, health outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness. This study estimates the impact and cost-effectiveness of an SSB tax levied in Oakland, California. Methods and findings An SSB tax ($0.01/oz) was implemented on July 1, 2017, in Oakland. The main sample of sales data included 11, 627 beverage products, 316 stores, and 172, 985, 767 product-store-month observations. The main analysis, a longitudinal quasi-experimental difference-in-differences approach, compared changes in beverage purchases at stores in Oakland versus Richmond, California (a nontaxed comparator in the same market area) before and 30 months after tax implementation (through December 31, 2019). Additional estimates used synthetic control methods with comparator stores in Los Angeles, California. Estimates were inputted into a closed-cohort microsimulation model to estimate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and societal costs (in Oakland) from 6 SSB-associated disease outcomes. In the main analysis, SSB purchases declined by 26.8% (95% CI -39.0 to -14.7, p < 0.001) in Oakland after tax implementation, compared with Richmond. There were no detectable changes in purchases of untaxed beverages or sweet snacks or purchases in border areas surrounding cities. In the synthetic control analysis, declines in SSB purchases were similar to the main analysis (-22.4%, 95% CI -41.7% to -3.0%, p = 0.04). The estimated changes in SSB purchases, when translated into declines in consumption, would be expected to accrue QALYs (94 per 10, 000 residents) and significant societal cost savings (>$100, 000 per 10, 000 residents) over 10 years, with greater gains over a lifetime horizon. Study limitations include a lack of SSB consumption data and use of sales data primarily from chain stores. Conclusions An SSB tax levied in Oakland was associated with a substantial decline in volume of SSBs purchased, an association that was sustained more than 2 years after tax implementation. Our study suggests that SSB taxes are effective policy instruments for improving health and generating significant cost savings for society. |
| Keywords: | Humans, Commerce, Beverages, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Taxes, Consumer Behavior, Sugar-Sweetened Beverages, Cost Effectiveness Research, Prevention, Clinical Research, Good Health and Well Being, Medical and Health Sciences, General & Internal Medicine |
| Date: | 2023–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt1528d4n2&r=mac |
| By: | Gong, Aolin; Mieno, Taro; Bullock, David S. |
| Abstract: | Alternative derivatives of the original yield-goal based recommendations have been employed by researchers, outreach personnel, and private-sector crop management consultants to direct farmers. Current research indicates, however, that the original yield-goal-based method used scant data, questionable data omissions, and flawed statistical analysis. Maximum Return to Nitrogen (MRTN) recommendation is the first publicly available nitrogen recommendation tool to consider economic outcome when recommending nitrogen application rate. However, MRTN adoption is low; farmers may still be following retailer recommendations or prior experience, in part because the nitrogen application rate suggested by the MRTN system is relatively low. This study aims to determine the efficiency of the MRTN recommendations in directing nitrogen application rates in the corn belt. Between 2016 and 2021, forty-two on-farm precision experiments were conducted in Illinois and Ohio to determine the ex-post economically optimal nitrogen rate (EONR), which are used here to evaluate MRTN rates. MRTN rates are compared to the current rates of farmers to determine which achieves relatively high profit margins. Findings suggest that MRTN recommendations can be excessively high or inadequately low across fields in the same region and during the same year. Additionally, grower chosen rates performed better than MRTN on some fields in some regions. Thus, adopting the MRTN recommendation appears riskier than developers claimed. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Crop Production/Industries, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2022–09–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:haaewp:337140&r=mac |
| By: | Stamm, Andreas; Altenburg, Tilman; Strohmaier, Rita; Oyan, Ece; Thoms, Katharina |
| Abstract: | Green hydrogen - produced with renewable energy - is indispensable for the decarbonisation of economies, especially concerning 'hard-to-abate' activities such as the production of steel, cement and fertilisers as well as maritime transport and aviation. The demand for green hydrogen is therefore booming. Currently, green hydrogen is far more expensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives, but major initiatives are underway to develop a global green hydrogen market and bring costs down. Green hydrogen is expected to become cost-competitive in the mid-2030s. Given their endowment with solar and wind energy, many countries in the Global South are well-positioned to produce low-cost green hydrogen and are therefore attracting investments. Whether and to what extent these investments will create value and employment for - and improve environmental conditions in - the host economies depends on policies. This discussion paper analyses the potential industrial development spillovers of green hydrogen production, distinguishing seven clusters of upstream and downstream industries that might receive a stimulus from green hydrogen. Yet, it also underlines that there is no automatism. Unless accompanied by industrial and innovation policies, and unless there are explicit provisions for using revenues for a Just Transition, hydrogen investments may lead to the formation of socially exclusive enclaves. The paper consists of two parts. Part A provides basic information on the emerging green hydrogen market and its technological ramifications, the opportunities for countries with abundant resources for renewable energy, how national policies can maximise the effects in terms of sustainable national development and how this can be supported by international cooperation. Part B delves into the specific case of South Africa, which is one of the countries that has an advanced hydrogen roadmap and hosts several German and international development projects. The country case shows how a national hydrogen strategy can be tailored to specific country conditions and how international cooperation can support its design and implementation. |
| Keywords: | Green hydrogen, energy transition, industrial development, industrial policy, South Africa, Just Transition, technological learning, international cooperation |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:92023&r=mac |
| By: | Maia David (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Vincent Martinet (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | A l'aide d'une expérience de choix discret, nous avons évalué l'acceptabilité relative de politiques de taxation ou d'interdiction du glyphosate auprès d'un échantillon représentatif de citoyens de 5 pays européens : l'Allemagne, la Belgique, l'Espagne, la France et l'Italie. Alors que 3/4 des répondants se déclarent en faveur d'une interdiction dans le questionnaire pré-expérimental, notre expérience montre que 2/3 d'entre eux sont susceptibles de préférer une taxation qui résulterait dans une réduction forte (mais pas totale) de l'utilisation du glyphosate à condition que cette politique réduise suffisamment le coût induit sur leur panier alimentaire. Notre expérience permet ainsi de quantifier cet arbitrage entre le gain environnemental de la politique et son coût pour les consommateurs. |
| Keywords: | Taxation, Pesticide, glysophate |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04114102&r=mac |
| By: | Ayoub Bourhim (UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud, LEGO - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion de l'Ouest - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - UBO - Université de Brest - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - IBSHS - Institut Brestois des Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société - UBO - Université de Brest - UBL - Université Bretagne Loire - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris], Lab_STICC_BRAIn - Equipe Better Representations for Artificial Intelligence - Lab-STICC - Laboratoire des sciences et techniques de l'information, de la communication et de la connaissance - ENIB - École Nationale d'Ingénieurs de Brest - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - UBO - Université de Brest - ENSTA Bretagne - École Nationale Supérieure de Techniques Avancées Bretagne - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UBL - Université Bretagne Loire - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris]); Laurent Guillet; Julie Lassalle; Christine Petr |
| Abstract: | Cybersecurity is one of the challenges facing modern industry, with the development of technology and the Internet in recent years. Human error is often characterized by cybersecurity experts as the "weak link" in the cybersecurity chain. This postulate is based on the "human error" paradigm, which assumes that security flaws are mainly due to individual factors. However, the literature shows that work-related constraints and the nature of the environment have a significant impact on the individual and cyber risks, calling into question the "human error" paradigm. To mitigate cyber risks, organizations tend to invest in technical solutions or implement policies aimed at controlling the individual. This paper proposes a systemic and dynamic approach to cybersecurity, with the aim of raising questions about the elements that enable the creation of enabling environments for cybersecurity. |
| Abstract: | La cybersécurité est un des défis de l'industrie moderne avec le développement de la technologie et d'internet au cours des dernières années. L'humain est souvent caractérisé par les experts de la cybersécurité comme le « maillon faible » de la chaîne de la cybersécurité. Ce postulat se base sur le paradigme de « L'erreur humaine » qui suppose que les failles de sécurité seraient principalement dues aux facteurs individuels. Cependant la littérature montre que les contraintes liées au travail ainsi que la nature de l'environnement ont un poids important sur l'individu et les risques cyber, remettant en cause le paradigme de « l'erreur humaine ». Afin de pallier aux risques cyber, les organisations ont tendance à investir dans des solutions techniques ou à mettre en place des politiques visant à contrôler l'individu. Ce papier propose une approche systémique et dynamique de la cybersécurité dans l'objectif d'amener à un questionnement sur les éléments permettant la mise en place d'environnement capacitants pour la cybersécurité. |
| Abstract: | サイバーセキュリティは、近年のテクノロジーやインターネットの発達に伴い、現代産業が直面する課題の一つです。サイバーセキュリティの専門家は、しばしば人間をサイバーセキュリティ・チェーンの「弱いリンク」と呼ぶ。この仮定は、セキュリティの欠陥は主に個人的な要因によるものであるとする「ヒューマンエラー」パラダイムに基づいています。しかし、文献によると、業務上の制約や環境の性質が個人とサイバーリスクに大きな影響を与え、「ヒューマンエラー」のパラダイムに疑問を投げかけている。 サイバーリスクを軽減するために、組織は技術的な解決策に投資したり、個人をコントロ ールすることを目的としたポリシーを実施する傾向がある。本稿では、サイバーセキュリ ティを可能にする環境を整えるための要素について問題提起することを目的として、サイ バーセキュリティに対するシステム的かつダイナミックなアプローチを提案する。 |
| Keywords: | enabling environments for cybersecurity, Human error recovery, Cyber Security, Vulnerabilities, Cybersécurité, Environnements capacitants, Risque, Acteurs, Organisation, Management des Ressources Humaines |
| Date: | 2023–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04129366&r=mac |
| By: | Ivan Tzintzun (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jonathan Sicsic (LIRAES (URP_ 4470) - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire de Recherche Appliquée en Economie de la Santé - UPCité - Université Paris Cité); Lise Rochaix (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | In a context of increasingly limited resources, a number of strategies, such as the adoption of decrementally cost-effective interventions (d-CEIs), which are both less clinically effective and less costly, could offer potential levers at enhancing both efficiency and equity in healthcare systems. These interventions are located in the SouthWest (S-W) quadrant of the cost-effectiveness plane, and have yet received little attention from researchers or HTA agencies as they are often perceived as per se "unethical" or "unacceptable", hence the reference sometimes made to the S-W quadrant as the 'Far West'. The purpose of our paper is to investigate policy-makers' willingness to adopt d-CEIs using a choice experiment. We use a two-stage pairwise DCE survey to elicit (i) preferences for d-CEIs' attributes in forced choices and (ii) adoption preferences, i.e. the determinants of d-CEIs' adoption (unforced choices). We investigate the effect (and trade-offs) between three attributes: health loss (very small to significant), reversibility defined as the possibility to switch back to usual care (from possible to hardly possible) and cost-savings (from 5% to 15% of a fixed budget). Such trade-offs are contextualized by using two sensitivity attributes: disease severity (low and moderate) and savings uncertainty (low and high). Our final sample consists of 180 respondents with 46.7% originating from France and the remaining respondents from other EU countries. All attributes' levels have a significant effect in the two decision stages. The "health loss" attribute dominates in the first stage followed by "reversibility": we calculate that decision-makers would require 28.3% increase of budget savings to be indifferent between a scenario of small versus significant health losses and 14.5% budget savings to be indifferent between a scenario of possible and hardly possible reversibility. In contrast, the "reversibility" attribute dominates in the second stage suggesting that anticipated regret may play a role in adoption decisions. |
| Keywords: | health policy-makers choices, Discrete Choice Experiment, Decrementally Cost-Effective Interventions, Disinvestment |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-04154933&r=mac |
| By: | Laure de Batz; Evžen Kočenda; Evžen Kocenda |
| Abstract: | We provide the first quantitative synthesis of the literature on how financial markets react to the disclosure of financial crimes committed by listed firms. While consensus expects negative stock price returns, the exact size of the effect is far from clear. We survey 111 studies published over three decades, from which we collect 480 estimates from event studies. Then, we perform a thorough meta-analysis based on the most recent available techniques. We show that the negative abnormal returns found in the literature seem to be exaggerated by more than three times. Hence, the “punishment” effect, including a reputational penalty, suffers from a serious publication bias. After controlling for this bias, negative abnormal returns suggest the existence of an informational effect. We also document that accounting frauds, crimes committed in common-law countries such as the United States, and allegations are particularly severely sanctioned by financial markets, while the information channels and types of procedures do not influence market reactions. |
| Keywords: | meta-analysis, event study, financial misconduct, trust, information and market efficiency, listed companies, crime |
| JEL: | C83 G14 G18 K42 N24 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10528&r=mac |
| By: | Alfitian, Jakob (University of Cologne); Deversi, Marvin (Education Y); Sliwka, Dirk (University of Cologne) |
| Abstract: | We present a natural field experiment on promoting pay equity through simple modifications to the salary review process involving 623 middle managers and 8, 951 subordinate employees of a large technology firm. We first document a gender gap not only in salary levels but also in salary increases. Our treatments provide for a gender-blind reallocation of the salary increase budget available to middle managers aimed at promoting pay equity, along with different variants of a corresponding decision guidance. We show that the budget reallocation combined with an explicit decision guidance, while still leaving middle managers discretion in allocating the budget, can completely eliminate the gender gap in salary increases. The treatments also do not appear to undermine the desired performance differentiation in salary increases. We thus show that simple modifications to the salary review process can go a long way toward achieving pay equity by preventing gender gaps from widening throughout employees' careers. |
| Keywords: | gender pay gap, pay equity, randomized controlled trial, salary structure |
| JEL: | J31 J71 M52 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16278&r=mac |
| By: | Christopher J. Waller |
| Date: | 2023–07–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgsq:96492&r=mac |
| By: | Philippe Adair; Vladimir Hlasny |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eru:erudwp:wp23-02&r=mac |
| By: | Jambo Ramadhani; Emmanuel Maliti |
| Abstract: | Based on a case study of an anonymous mining company in Tanzania, this study assesses the implementation of the local content (LC) regulations and guidelines in the country. The analysis focused on the key LC aspects of the direct workforce (employment and training), procurement of goods and services, and technological transfer to uncover the extent to which the company implements the LC regulations. |
| Keywords: | Local content, Mining, Workforce, Local procurement, Technology transfer, Tanzania |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2023-77&r=mac |
| By: | Zercher, Désirée; Jussupow, Ekaterina; Heinzl, Armin |
| Date: | 2023–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:138574&r=mac |