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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Medina, Juan Pablo; Toni, Emiliano; Valdes, Rodrigo |
| Abstract: | There is consensus that Chile has made substantial progress in its macroeconomic policies during the last 30 years. However, there is no comprehensive and formal quantification of the macroeconomic stabilization gains in terms of the critical dimensions in the conduct of monetary and fiscal policies. In this work, we make an effort to quantify these gains using a structural model that incorporates essential features of the Chilean economy, disentangling the role of changes in policies and shocks in shaping the business cycles. We pay particular attention to two simultaneous and significant policy regime changes. In 2000, Chile moved from a managed exchange rate regime to a floating one coupled with flexible inflation targeting. On fiscal, policy shifted to a more countercyclical budget, changing a the-facto nominal target for a structural one. Policies also deviated from their implicit rules in the old and the new regimes—the ``art" policy component. Fitting the model to the Chilean data through Bayesian techniques in the period 1990-2015, we find that a flexible exchange rate regime and a countercyclical fiscal rule enhance each other in terms of lowering macroeconomic volatility, especially those arising from commodity prices and other critical economic shocks. Together, the monetary and budgetary reforms attenuated both GDP and inflation's volatility considerably in 2000-2015 (compared to the counterfactual based on the 90's policies). The art part also contributed substantially to lowering macro volatility, especially fiscal policy deviations on GDP volatility. For the 90s, the counterfactuals using the new policy framework also show lower volatility and an even more relevant role for policy deviations. |
| Keywords: | DSGE Model, Fiscal and Monetary Policies, Macroeconomic stabilization, Chile. |
| JEL: | C54 E32 E37 E52 E62 F41 |
| Date: | 2023–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:117198&r=mac |
| By: | Christina D. Romer; David H. Romer |
| Abstract: | The narrative approach to macroeconomic identification uses qualitative sources, such as newspapers or government records, to provide information that can help establish causal relationships. This paper discusses the requirements for rigorous narrative analysis using fresh research on the impact of monetary policy as the focal application. We read the historical minutes and transcripts of Federal Reserve policymaking meetings to identify significant contractionary and expansionary changes in monetary policy not taken in response to current or prospective developments in real activity for the period 1946 to 2016. We find that such monetary shocks have large and significant effects on unemployment, output, and inflation in the expected directions. Analysis of available policy records suggests that a contractionary monetary shock likely occurred in 2022. Based on the empirical estimates of the effect of previous shocks, one would expect substantial negative impacts on real GDP and inflation in 2023 and 2024. |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 E65 N12 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31170&r=mac |
| By: | Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia; Alexander L. Wolman |
| Abstract: | Inflation is determined by interaction between real factors and monetary policy. Among the most important real factors are shocks to the supply and demand for different components of the consumption basket. We use an estimated multi-sector New Keynesian model to decompose the behavior of U.S. inflation into contributions from sectoral (or "relative price") shocks, monetary policy shocks, and aggregate real shocks. The model is estimated by maximum likelihood with U.S. data for the post-1994 period in which inflation and the monetary policy regime appeared to be stable. In addition to providing a broad decomposition of inflation behavior, we enlist the model to help us understand the inflation shortfall from 2012 to 2019, and the dramatic inflation movements during the COVID pandemic. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy; sectoral shocks; inflation shortfall; COVID-19 |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:94408&r=mac |
| By: | Joseph Abadi; Markus K. Brunnermeier; Yann Koby |
| Abstract: | The reversal interest rate is the rate at which accommodative monetary policy reverses and becomes contractionary for lending. We theoretically demonstrate its existence in a macroeconomic model featuring imperfectly competitive banks that face financial frictions. When interest rates are cut too low, further monetary stimulus cuts into banks’ profit margins, depressing their net worth and curtailing their credit supply. Similarly, when interest rates are low for too long, the persistent drag on bank profitability eventually outweighs banks’ initial capital gains, also stifling credit supply. We quantify the importance of this mechanism within a calibrated New Keynesian model. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy; Lower Bound; Negative Rates; Banking |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2022–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:94694&r=mac |
| By: | Bhattacharya, Rudrani (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | India has entered into the Inflation Targeting (IT) monetary policy regime in 2015. Under this rule-based monetary policy regime, changes in the policy rate transmits to the economic activities and current inflation rate by altering the inflation expectation of the rational economic agents. This study empirically investigates whether monetary policy can anchor ination expectation of economic agents in India. In our analysis, the survey based measure of households' inflation expectation published by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) captures inflation expectation of private agents. Using a co-integrated Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model, we find moderate but significant monetary policy transmission in India via interest rate channel. However, inflation expectation seems to be unanchored by monetary policy conduct in the country. Our finding is found to be robust under alternative modeling frameworks. |
| Keywords: | Inflation expectation ; Monetary policy ; Co-integrated VAR ; India |
| JEL: | C32 C5 E31 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:23/395&r=mac |
| By: | Silvia Albrizio (International Monetary Fund); Beatriz González (Banco de España); Dmitry Khametshin (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the impact of monetary policy on capital misallocation through its heterogeneous effects on firms. Using Spanish firm-level data covering the period 1999-2019, we show that an expansionary monetary policy shock leads to a decrease in capital misallocation, as measured by the within-industry dispersion of firms’ marginal revenue product of capital (MRPK). To analyse the mechanism behind this finding, we first explore the intensive margin and show that high-MRPK firms increase their investment and their debt financing relatively more than low-MRPK firms after monetary policy easing. We also document that a firm’s MRPK is a much stronger driver of its investment sensitivity to monetary policy than its age, leverage or cash. These findings suggest that MRPK is a good proxy for financial frictions. Second, we explore the extensive margin and show that monetary policy easing increases entry and decreases exit, although the effect is quantitatively small, and it does not lead to significant changes in the composition of high- and low-MRPK entrants or exiters. Overall, the evidence points to expansionary monetary policy decreasing capital misallocation mainly through the relaxation of financial frictions of incumbent, productive, constrained firms. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, financial frictions, investment, misallocation, productivity |
| JEL: | D22 D24 E22 E32 E52 O11 O4 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2302&r=mac |
| By: | Morán, Marthín; Nivín, Rafael; Quintana, Derry (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú) |
| Abstract: | El grado de estrés financiero puede tener implicancias en la dinámica de las variables macroeconómicas. Este trabajo construye un índice de estrés financiero para Perú, empleando la metodología de componentes principales, sobre un conjunto amplio de variables que incluye a los intermediarios de crédito, el mercado de capitales y el mercado monetario y cambiario. Posteriormente, para evaluar el impacto del estrés financiero en variables del sector real, se realiza un análisis de impulsos respuesta, usando la metodología de Proyección Local desarrollada por Jordà (2005), en su extensión no lineal por Gorodnichenko y Auerbach (2013), dado que el impacto del estrés financiero en las variables macroeconómicas es no lineal. El resultado muestra que, durante periodos de estabilidad financiera la dinámica macroeconómica es consistente con el resultado del modelo Neokeynesiano, donde la política monetaria tiene un rol estabilizador en la economía ante choques de demanda. Sin embargo, durante episodios de estrés financiero, la efectividad de la política monetaria se ve reducida ante un mismo choque. |
| Keywords: | Financial stress index, principal component analysis, local projection. |
| JEL: | C32 E32 E52 E44 G01 G21 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2022-002&r=mac |
| By: | Goodhart, C. A. E.; Pradhan, Manoj |
| Abstract: | Central Banks normally adjust monetary policy so that inflation hits the Inflation Target (IT) within two years. Since a central bank must believe its policy stance is appropriate to achieve this goal, its inflation forecast at the two-year horizon should generally be close to target. We examine whether this has held for three main Central Banks, Bank of England, ECB and Fed. During the IT period, there have been two crisis periods, The Great Financial Crisis (GFC), and then Covid/Ukraine. We examine how the two-year forecasts differed depending on whether we were in a crisis, or more normal, period. Although over the whole IT period, up until 2022, both forecasts and outcomes were commendably close to target, we found that this was due to a sizeable forecast underestimate of the effects of policy and inherent resilience to revive inflation after each crisis hit, largely offset by an overestimate of the effect of monetary policy to restore inflation to target during more normal times. We attribute such latter overestimation to an unwarranted belief in forward looking, ‘well anchored’, expectations amongst households and firms, and to a failure to recognise the underlying disinflationary trends, especially in 2010-2019. We outline a novel means for assessing whether these latter trends were primarily demand driven, e.g. secular stagnation, or supply shocks, a labour supply surge. Finally, we examine how forecasts for the uncertainty of outcomes and relative risk (skew) to the central forecast have developed by examining the Bank of England’s fan chart, again at the two-year horizon. |
| Keywords: | forecasting; expectations |
| JEL: | D10 D21 D80 D89 E17 E31 E37 E47 E59 |
| Date: | 2023–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:118680&r=mac |
| By: | Marco Bassetto; Wei Cui |
| Abstract: | The return on government debt is lower than that of asset with similar payoffs. We study optimal debt management and taxation when the government cannot directly redistribute towards the agents in need of liquidity but otherwise has access to a complete set of linear tax instruments. Optimal government debt provision calls for gradually closing the wedge between the returns as much as possible, but tax policy may work as a countervailing force: as long as financial frictions bind, it can be optimal to tax capital even if this magnifies the discrepancy in returns. |
| Keywords: | Capital tax; Financing constraints; Asset liquidity; Optimal level of government debt; Low interest rates |
| JEL: | E22 E62 E44 |
| Date: | 2023–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:95726&r=mac |
| By: | Rácz, Olivér Miklós |
| Abstract: | Distancing policy interventions (DPIs) were aimed at containing the COVID-19 pandemic, but they also likely affected economic activity. This paper estimates the effects of DPIs on selected indicators of monthly economic activity, such as industrial and manufacturing production, construction output, retail trade, inflation, and unemployment. The main contribution of this paper is the isolation of the causal effects of distancing interventions from the effects of voluntary distancing. I use mobility data as a measure of distancing to identify DPI effects on mobility in a regression discontinuity design, specifically as immediate changes in distancing right after the intervention. This strategy identifies the unobserved voluntary component of distancing as well, which is a key control variable in the identification of the economic effects of DPIs. I find significant output losses due to DPIs, but no evidence for inflationary or unemployment effects. Results also show that although voluntary distancing caused significant output losses, their effect was an order of magnitude smaller than that of DPIs. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, non-pharmaceutical interventions, causal identification, regression-discontinuity-in-time |
| JEL: | C30 C33 C43 C54 E23 E24 E65 H10 H12 H30 H84 I10 I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2023–05–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cvh:coecwp:2023/04&r=mac |
| By: | Georgescu, George |
| Abstract: | The study focuses on 1980s sovereign debt crisis in Romania under the impact of internal and external factors, intending to provide a more realistic image of this dramatic episode. The global economy faced a severe economic and financial crisis at the beginning of the 1980s, when more than 30 developing countries entered default or restructured the sovereign debt. In the case of Romania, the impact of the crisis triggered in 1981-1982 has proved extremely hard worsened by the domestic vulnerabilities accumulated in the previous decade and the external shock coming from the major changes in the global economic, financial and geopolitical context at the end of 1979. The FED monetary policy at that time (twenty percent funds rate in order to fight inflation), has led to the explosive rise in interest rates of the outstanding loans contracted from international commercial banks, to which Romania was highly indebted. The decision of simple-minded Nicolae Ceaușescu to liquidate the foreign debt and other errors concerning the crisis management had a destructive impact on the country, which degenerated in a system crisis ended with its implosion in December 1989. Some lessons from this crisis could be learned for the current indebtedness situation of Romania, amid international circumstances characterized by two-digit inflation, high interest rates and government bond yields, energy crisis, climate changes, Ukraine war, global geopolitical tensions. |
| Keywords: | foreign debt crisis; oil crisis shocks; IMF; FED monetary policy; inflation; interest rates; sovereign debt restructuring; Romania |
| JEL: | B22 E44 E62 F34 H63 N44 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:117196&r=mac |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | momentum has carried over into early 2023. The labour market was strong in 2022 and continued to show strength in early 2023. Inflation rose to 8% in 2022, the highest annual level in four decades, but slowed to 5% in March 2023. The Federal Reserve approved nine interest rate increases between March 2022 and March 2023 to tame inflation. March 2023 saw heightened market stress owing to bank failures that were partly driven by the loss of asset value as interest rates rose from near zero. Unease about the banking system’s stability and a political stalemate over raising the debt limit are adding to an already high level of financial anxiety, as the two economic challenges become intertwined. } The United States economic outlook reports are published three times a year and follow the main macroeconomic developments of the United States economy and how they could affect financial conditions in Latin America and the Caribbean. |
| Keywords: | CONDICIONES ECONOMICAS, CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO, PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO, PRODUCCION INDUSTRIAL, MERCADO DE TRABAJO, INFLACION, POLITICA FISCAL, POLITICA MONETARIA, COMERCIO MINORISTA, COMERCIO EXTERIOR, INDICADORES ECONOMICOS, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, LABOUR MARKET, INFLATION, FISCAL POLICY, MONETARY POLICY, RETAIL TRADE, FOREIGN TRADE, ECONOMIC INDICATORS |
| Date: | 2023–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col896:48848&r=mac |
| By: | Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Daniel R. Sanches |
| Abstract: | The gold standard emerged as the international monetary system by the end of the 19th century. We formally study its properties in a micro-founded model and find that the scarcity of the world gold stock not only results in a suboptimal output of goods that are purchased with money but also subjects the domestic economy of a country to external shocks. The creation of inside money in the form of private credit instruments adds to the money supply, usually resulting in a Pareto improvement, but opens the door to the international transmission of banking crises. These properties of the gold standard can explain the limited adherence by peripheral countries because of the potential risks to their economies. We argue that the gold standard can be sustainable at the core but not at the periphery. |
| Keywords: | gold standard; specie flows; non-neutrality of money; inside money |
| JEL: | E42 E58 G21 |
| Date: | 2022–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:94803&r=mac |
| By: | Pana Alves (Banco de España); Sergio Mayordomo; Manuel Ruiz-García (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | Access to financing in fixed-income markets enables firms to diversify their sources of financing and reduces their vulnerability, particularly in periods when access to bank credit is restricted. This paper analyses the factors explaining firms’ recourse to capital market financing using the ERICA database, which contains detailed information on the balance sheets of the main non-financial groups listed in euro area countries. The results show that size is the most important determinant of recourse to this source of financing. According to the results of this paper, the introduction of the corporate sector purchase programme by the European Central Bank in 2016 appears to have contributed to improving capital market access for smaller listed firms. Nonetheless, size continues to be a key barrier to capital market access. Implementation of other more structural initiatives, such as the capital markets union, could help to further reduce these barriers to access to external financing. |
| Keywords: | corporate financing, fixed-income securities, CSPP, small listed firms, bank financing |
| JEL: | E51 E52 E58 G2 G12 G15 G23 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:2209e&r=mac |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Syahda Sabrina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Nauli A. Desdiani (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Teuku Riefky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Amalia Cesarina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Meila Husna (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Despite the economic bleakness in the global economy following serious disruptions of prolonged Covid-19 spread, geopolitical tension, rising food and energy prices, and overheating inflation throughout 2022, Indonesia has managed to persistently grow at 5.72% (y.o.y) in Q3-2022. The figure is the highest level in the last ten years and marks its third consecutive quarter having a growth rate higher than expectations. The growth was mainly supported by the solid demand and production activity as Indonesia managed to channel the commodity windfall profit to increase the budget and delay the fuel price hike. Moreover, the relatively low growth in the same period previous year has also contributed to the higher-than-expected growth in Q3-2022. Manufacturing industry as the biggest sector to contribute to GDP recorded a significant growth increase from 4.01% (y.o.y) in Q2-2022 to 4.83% (y.o.y) in Q3-2022. From expenditure side, the robust household consumption of 5.39% (y.o.y) and investment growth of 4.96% (y.o.y) has played an important role in boosting economic growth. |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic quarterly — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:queout:202301&r=mac |
| By: | Congressional Budget Office |
| Abstract: | Over recent decades, corporate economic profits—that is, profits from current production—have grown faster than the amounts that corporations pay in federal taxes. That pattern, which cannot be explained by changes in statutory tax rates, reflects a divergence between economic profits and the corporate tax base. Because such differences affect how CBO projects revenues from the corporate income tax, the agency has analyzed the relationship between the two measures. |
| JEL: | E01 H20 H25 H32 |
| Date: | 2023–05–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:58267&r=mac |
| By: | Yunfang Hu; Takuma Kunieda; Kazuo Nishimura; Ping Wang |
| Abstract: | We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model of foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign technology adoption, incorporating adoption barriers, international technology spillover, and relative price advantages. A higher FDI conversion efficacy, a lower adoption barrier, or a stronger international technology spillover, together with a lower relative price of FDI, can propel an economy to exhibit a flying geese paradigm escaping from a middle-income trap and catching up with the world frontier. We calibrate the model to eight representative Asian economies, including Asian Tigers and less-developed countries. Growth accounting exercises show that total factor productivity, FDI conversion efficacy, and foreign technology spillover drive Asian Tigers’ growth miracle, whereas a reduced adoption barrier and a favorable relative price of FDI are more crucial for the growth of less-developed Asian economies. The counterfactual analysis confirms that technology-embodied FDI serves as a flying propeller, explaining almost two-thirds of their economic growth. |
| JEL: | E20 F21 O40 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31159&r=mac |
| By: | Christophe André; Hélia Costa; Lilas Demmou; Guido Franco |
| Abstract: | Soaring energy prices have raised concerns about the risks energy price shocks pose for firms’ performance and the green transition. This paper estimates the impacts of energy price changes on firms’ productivity as well as their dynamics, distinguishing between the short and medium-to-long term, using historical data. The analysis shows that following an energy price shock, firms adjust down their capacity utilisation, and their productivity declines. The estimates suggest that a 5% increase in energy prices reduces productivity by approximately 0.4% one year later. However, firms may display positive productivity gains in the medium term. Specifically, a shock corresponding to a 10% increase in energy prices is associated with an increase in productivity growth of around 0.9 p.p four years after the shock. These gains are more likely in less energy-intensive sectors, but tend not to materialise for larger shocks. There is some evidence that investment may be the channel behind productivity gains, the latter being larger for firms that had made investments in capital just before the shock. |
| Keywords: | Energy prices, environmental policy, firm performance, productivity |
| JEL: | D22 D24 Q40 Q48 Q52 |
| Date: | 2023–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1755-en&r=mac |
| By: | Boris Fisera (Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague & Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Bratislava) |
| Abstract: | While it is often argued that exchange rate depreciation has a beggar-thy-neighbour effect, in this paper, we investigate, whether exchange rate depreciation has a beggarthyself effect. Specifically, we explore the distributional consequences of Exchange rate movements. Using a heterogeneous panel cointegration approach, we find that, on average, small depreciations of the domestic currency decrease income inequality over the long-term. However, large depreciations in excess of 25%, increase income inequality over the long term. Large appreciations of the domestic currency also increase income inequality. Next, we identify 119 episodes of managed depreciations to better capture the distributional consequences of exchange rate movements. Managed depreciations are defined as situations in which the central bank intervenes to depreciate its domestic currency. Using the local projections (LP) approach, we find that managed depreciation shocks decrease income inequality. We find no evidence supporting the idea that exchange rate depreciation has a "beggar-thyself" effect with respect to income inequality, as it does not seem to increase inequality. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate depreciation, income inequality, competitive devaluation, managed depreciation, distributional effects |
| JEL: | F10 F30 F31 F43 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2023_08&r=mac |
| By: | Laura Bakkensen; Toan Phan; Russell Wong |
| Abstract: | We theoretically and empirically investigate how climate risks affect collateralized debt markets. First, we develop a debt model where agents have different beliefs over a long-run risk. In contrast with existing two-period competitive-equilibrium models, our infinite-horizon competitive-search model predicts more pessimistic agents are more likely to make leveraged investments on risky collateral assets. They also tend to use longer maturity debt contracts, which are more exposed to the long-run risk. Second, employing large data on real estate and mortgage transactions, combined with high resolution sea-level-rise maps, we find robust evidence for these findings. We also show how monetary and securitization policies affect mortgage climate risk exposure. Our results highlight the importance of heterogeneous beliefs in understanding the effects of climate change on the financial system. |
| Keywords: | climate finance; sea-level rise; heterogeneous beliefs; real estate; mortgage; search and matching; monetary policy |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:95450&r=mac |
| By: | Luis Fernández Lafuerza (Banco de España); Matías Lamas (Banco de España); Javier Mencía (Banco de España); Irene Pablos (Banco de España); Raquel Vegas (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | Este trabajo analiza la capacidad de uso de los colchones de capital voluntarios y regulatorios por parte de las entidades bancarias, aprovechando la experiencia de la pandemia de COVID-19. En primer lugar, se encuentra que la usabilidad de los colchones macroprudenciales está muy poco limitada en España por otros requerimientos sobre las entidades. Adicionalmente, se encuentra que los colchones existentes sobre los requerimientos de capital al comienzo de la pandemia han tenido efectos significativos en los mercados financieros, lo que ha afectado a la evolución de las cotizaciones bancarias europeas, así como a las tenencias de acciones bancarias por parte de los fondos de inversión. Por último, no se observa un efecto agregado significativo del nivel disponible de colchones de capital sobre los requerimientos de capital en la provisión de financiación a las empresas no financieras en España. Sin embargo, sí se identifican efectos negativos en la oferta de crédito de los bancos con menores colchones voluntarios a las empresas con las que tenían relaciones más recientes. Asimismo, cuando el análisis se realiza exclusivamente sobre las operaciones crediticias sin garantía pública, sí se observa que las entidades con menor margen de capital por encima de los requerimientos redujeron más el crédito. |
| Keywords: | usabilidad del capital, margen de capital voluntario, cotizaciones bancarias, provisión de crédito |
| JEL: | G20 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:2223&r=mac |
| By: | Abdelouahab MAAROUF (UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]); Omar AHMED (UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]) |
| Abstract: | This report examines the effect of external public debt on economic growth in the Republic of Djibouti based on autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) during the period 1987 - 2017. The results show a positive and significant effect of debt on economic growth when considered in nominal terms. This effect becomes less significant and statistically insignificant when estimating the net present value of the debt. These results suggest that, contrary to intuition and theory, the use of concessional financing is no more timely and effective than floating and more restrictive borrowing. |
| Abstract: | Ce rapport examine l'effet de la dette publique extérieure sur la croissance économique en république de Djibouti en se basant sur la modélisation autorégressive à retard échelonné (ARDL) durant la période 1987 - 2017. Les résultats obtenus montrent un effet positif et significatif de la dette sur la croissance économique lorsqu'elle est considérée sous forme de valeur nominale. Cet effet devient moins important et statistiquement non significatif lorsque l'estimation porte sur la valeur actuelle nette de la dette. Ces résultats permettent de conclure que, contrairement à l'intuition et à ce que prédit la théorie, le recours au financement à des conditions favorables n'est pas plus opportun et plus efficace que les emprunts à taux variables et à des conditions plus restrictives. |
| Date: | 2021–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03280083&r=mac |
| By: | Pablo Aguilar (Banco de España); Beatriz González (Banco de España); Samuel Hurtado (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a general equilibrium sectoral model designed to produce macroeconomic scenarios that incorporate transition risks associated with policies to curb climate change (but not physical risks associated with the long-term costs of climate change). The model is calibrated to the Spanish economy, and can simulate the impact of shocks to the price and coverage of greenhouse gas emission allowances, with particular attention to sectoral asymmetries arising from (i) the energy intensity of each industry, (ii) the source of that energy, and (iii) the interdependencies with other industries. We show that for an increase in the price of emission allowances similar to that observed in recent years (from approximately €25 per tonne of CO2 in 2019 to almost €100 per tonne in 2022) the model predicts a cumulative decline in Spanish GDP after three years of 0.37%. The loss in value added is very heterogeneous across industries, ranging from 4% in the most severely affected industries to virtually no impact in the least affected industries. In terms of the use of the model for stress testing, this heterogeneity points to potential risks for financial stability and the importance of the right diversification for banks to diminish their exposure to transition risks. |
| Keywords: | climate change, stress test, input-output matrix |
| JEL: | Q48 H30 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:2218&r=mac |
| By: | Dario Guarascio; Jelena Reljic; Giacomo Cucignatto; Giuseppe Celi; Annamaria Simonazzi |
| Abstract: | This work analyses the European Union's structural vulnerability vis-Ã -vis a global economy that is increasingly divided into two opposing blocks with ever more 'weaponized' interdependencies. First, we provide an empirical assessment of EU's vulnerability focusing on four main dimensions – demand, supply, technology and critical raw materials. Second, we provide a comprehensive theoretical framework identifying the major drivers of vulnerability. The latter are associated with the German-centered export-led growth model that has largely shaped the European economy during the last twenty years. Three are the (intertwined) key drivers: demand-repression, fallacious economic policy set-up and core-periphery divide. Finally, we analyse the recent revival of industrial policy in Europe discussing whether and to what extent such policies, particularly those directed at accelerating digitalization and energy transition, might be able to reduce vulnerability. |
| Keywords: | Structural vulnerability; Strategic autonomy; Industrial policy; Core-Periphery |
| JEL: | F02 F15 F45 F55 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp237&r=mac |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Joel Hinaunye Eita (Johannesburg, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | Poverty and inequality represent major policy syndromes that are relevant in the achievement of most United Nations’ sustainable development goals (SDGs) in sub-Saharan Africa, while economic growth is also essential for the achievement of attendant SDGs. The present study extends existing literature by assessing the conditional influence of poverty, income inequality and severity of poverty on economic growth. The focus is on 42 countries in sub-Saharan Africa with data from 1980 to 2019. The Gini index is used to measure income inequality. Poverty is measured in terms of the poverty headcount ratio while the severity of poverty is computed as the squared of the poverty gap index. The empirical evidence is based on quantile regressions in order to assess how income inequality and poverty dynamics affect economic growth throughout the conditional distribution of economic growth. Our main finding shows that the negative response of economic growth to poverty is a decreasing function of economic growth. In other words, the incidence of poverty in reducing economic growth decreases with increasing levels of economic growth. In two specifications, the effect of inequality is negative in bottom quantiles and positive in top quantiles of the conditional distribution of economic growth. Policy implications are discussed, especially as it pertains to: (i) the relevance of poverty in mitigating economic growth in SSA contingent on initial levels of economic growth and (ii) comparative incidences of poverty and inequality in affecting economic growth. |
| Keywords: | poverty; inequality; economic growth; sub-Saharan Africa; econometrics; economics |
| JEL: | D31 I10 I32 K40 O55 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:23/022&r=mac |
| By: | Spyridon Boikos (University of Macedonia (Department of Economics), Thessaloniki, Greece); Alberto Bucci (Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods (DEMM) - University of Milan, and ICEA (International Center for Economic Analysis, Canada); Tiago Miguel Guterres Neves Sequeira (Department of Economics and Management, University of Pisa); Tiago Miguel Guterres Neves Sequeira (University of Coimbra, Centre for Business and Economics Research, CeBER and Faculty of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Recent evidence suggests that fertility rates are (and will be expected to remain in the future) below the replacement level for several countries and especially for the most technological advanced ones, which indicates that the World population will start decreasing sooner or later. In the light of this, we reconsider the Empty Planet result – Jones (2022) – and include human capital and class size effects in R&D endogenous growth models with decreasing population. We find that the introduction of human capital mitigates, or even overcomes, the Empty Planet result. In particular, under some mild conditions, our setting allows obtaining simultaneous long-run economic growth and secular productivity stagnation. |
| Keywords: | Endogenous economic growth, R&D, Human Capital, Declining Population, Empty Planet. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gmf:papers:2022-09&r=mac |
| By: | Csaba Burger (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the Central Bank of Hungary)); Mihály Berndt (Clarity Consulting Kft) |
| Abstract: | Supervised machine learning methods, in which no error labels are present, are increasingly popular methods for identifying potential data errors. Such algorithms rely on the tenet of a ‘ground truth’ in the data, which in other words assumes correctness in the majority of the cases. Points deviating from such relationships, outliers, are flagged as potential data errors. This paper implements an outlier-based error-spotting algorithm using gradient boosting, and presents a blueprint for the modelling pipeline. More specifically, it underpins three main modelling hypotheses with empirical evidence, which are related to (1) missing value imputation, (2) the loss-function choice and (3) the location of the error. By doing so, it uses a cross sectional view on the loan-to-value and its related columns of the Credit Registry (Hitelregiszter) of the Central Bank of Hungary (MNB), and introduces a set of synthetic error types to test its hypotheses. The paper shows that gradient boosting is not materially impacted by the choice of the imputation method, hence, replacement with a constant, the computationally most efficient, is recommended. Second, the Huber-loss function, which is piecewise quadratic up until the Huber-slope parameter and linear above it, is better suited to cope with outlier values; it is therefore better in capturing data errors. Finally, errors in the target variable are captured best, while errors in the predictors are hardly found at all. These empirical results may generalize to other cases, depending on data specificities, and the modelling pipeline described underscores significant modelling decisions. |
| Keywords: | data quality, machine learning, gradient boosting, central banking, loss functions, missing values |
| JEL: | C5 C81 E58 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnb:opaper:2023/148&r=mac |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Sara le Roux (Oxford Brookes University, Oxford, UK) |
| Abstract: | The study examines how mobile money innovations transform unemployed women to self-employed women. The empirical evidence is based on interactive quantile regressions focusing on data in 44 countries from sub-Saharan Africa for the period 2004 to 2018. The hypothesis that mobile money innovations transform female unemployment to female self-employment is tested. Eight mobile money innovation dynamics presented in four categories are employed. Three main common findings are apparent from interactions between female unemployment, eight mobile money innovation dynamics and female self-employment: (i) the investigated hypothesis is valid exclusively at the top quantiles of female self-employment; (ii) the net effects are consistently negative and (iii) the corresponding conditional or interactive effects upon which the net effects are based are consistently positive. This is an indication that critical masses at which money innovation innovations have an overall positive net effect on female self-employment are apparent. The corresponding mobile money innovation policy thresholds at which the net effects on female self-employment change from negative to positive are provided. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Mobile phones; financial inclusion; women; inequality; sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | G20 O40 I10 I20 I32 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:23/016&r=mac |
| By: | Maximiliano Dvorkin; Juan M. Sanchez; Horacio Sapriza; Emircan Yurdagul |
| Abstract: | The wave of sovereign defaults in the early 1980s and the string of debt crises in subsequent decades have fostered proposals involving policy interventions in sovereign debt restructurings. The global financial crisis and the recent global pandemic have further reignited this discussion among academics and policymakers. A key question about these policy proposals for debt restructurings that has proved hard to handle is how they influence the behavior of creditors and debtors. We address this challenge by evaluating policy proposals in a quantitative sovereign default model that incorporates two essential features of debt: maturity choice and debt renegotiation in default. We find, first, that a rule that tilts the distribution of creditor losses during restructurings toward holders of long-maturity bonds reduces short-term yield spreads, lowering the probability of a sovereign default by 25 percent. Second, issuing GDP-indexed bonds exclusively during restructurings also reduces the probability of default, especially of defaults in the five years following a debt restructuring. The policies lead to welfare improvements and reductions in haircuts of similar magnitude when implemented separately. When jointly implemented, they reinforce each other's welfare gains, suggesting good complementarity. |
| Keywords: | Crises; GDP-indexed Debt; Distribution of Creditor Losses; Default; Sovereign Debt; Maturity; Restructuring; Country Risk; International Monetary Fun |
| JEL: | F34 F41 G15 |
| Date: | 2022–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:94347&r=mac |
| By: | Sonsoles Gallego (Banco de España); Isabel Garrido (Banco de España); Ignacio Hernando (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | Between 2009 and 2010, in response to the global financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund created a number of lending tools to pre-empt and insure against crises. These pre-emptive facilities were intended for countries with sound economic fundamentals and policies, but with exposure to financial contagion risks. The use of these instruments (in terms of number of countries) was limited during the first ten years of their existence, but with the outbreak of the pandemic three Latin American countries applied to use them. An assessment of these lines suggests they have performed the insurance function for which they were conceived. In anticipation of the forthcoming review of these credit lines, and in the light of recent experience, possible reasons for the limited demand are analysed and relevant factors are suggested for the design of “exit strategies”, the aspect of their use that has attracted most attention. |
| Keywords: | IMF, insurance facilities, Flexible Credit Line, Short-term Liquidity Line, Latin America |
| JEL: | F30 F33 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:2224e&r=mac |
| By: | Prest, Brian C. (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Despite recent progress in securing international commitments to fight climate change, such as the Paris Agreement, current climate policies remain far from sufficient to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C. While this indicates more aggressive steps are needed, many policy levers remain underutilized. By and large, the policies pursued thus far have focused on demand-side measures, such as fuel economy standards, that directly reduce the consumption of fossil fuels, whereas supply-side measures that directly reduce fossil fuel extraction have received relatively little attention. This lopsided focus is at odds with the International Energy Agency’s 1.5°C-consistent pathway, which entails “no investment in new fossil fuel supply projects†starting immediately. Similarly, Welsby et al. (2021) calculate that the same target would require leaving 60 percent of existing oil and gas reserves and 90 percent of coal reserves in the ground. Such reserves would seem to be a natural focus of climate policy. In the United States, greenhouse gas emissions associated with federally owned fossil fuels are equivalent to about 24 percent of annual US emissions (Merrill et al. 2018; Ratledge et al. 2022), giving the federal government direct control over the extraction of these resources. Abroad, even larger shares of fossil fuel reserves are directly owned by governments. Yet governments have largely eschewed policies that directly reduce fossil fuel extraction.Climate mitigation policies can generally be classified as either demand-side, directly reducing the consumption of fossil fuels and hence greenhouse gas emissions, or supply-side, directly reducing fossil fuel extraction. Historically, policymakers have overwhelmingly focused on demand-side measures. For example, in the United States, the Obama administration primarily pursued demand-side policies such as fuel economy standards and power plant regulations but did relatively little to directly reduce the production of fossil fuels. That focus on the demand side may stem in part from a common perception by policymakers and economists that supply-side policies are vulnerable to emissions “leakage†—in which reduced domestic fossil fuel production (and hence emissions) is simply offset by increased production and emissions elsewhere—to which demand-side policies are supposedly immune. But is that truly the case? Are these types of policies fundamentally different? More specifically, what are the major differences between these policies with respect to key outcomes such as leakage and, ultimately, global emissions reductions? This paper explores those questions and shows that the two types of policies are not fundamentally different with respect to leakage concerns. Although both types of policies can induce leakage on their own, when pursued jointly, they are in fact complementary, mitigating or even eliminating leakage.Critics frequently dismiss supply-side policies based on a notion that leakage undermines their effectiveness in reducing emissions globally. However, it is commonly overlooked that leakage is an issue for demand-side climate actions as well. For example, whereas analyses of the effects of federal oil and gas development frequently emphasize the potential for leakage of production to other regions, analyses of demand-side policies like fuel economy standards typically do not consider the analogous potential for leakage of consumption elsewhere.On their own, demand-side policies generate leakage by reducing the price of fossil fuels, making it cheaper for other consumers, such as those in other countries, to burn them. Supply-side policies analogously generate leakage by increasing the price of fossil fuels, encouraging more production elsewhere. The climate benefits of either supply- or demand-side policies are each reduced by emissions leakage, or substitution, just via different mechanisms. Despite this symmetry, leakage concerns are disproportionately raised in the context of supply-side policies.Leakage is not inevitable, though. Standard neoclassical economic theory shows that leakage can be avoided if supply- and demand-side policies are implemented in tandem and with equal ambition, in a quantitative sense in terms of the direct number of barrels of oil of consumption and production reduced. Intuitively, leakage is a problem either when demand-side policy suppresses global fossil fuel prices, making it cheaper for other countries to emit, or when supply-side policy boosts those prices and thereby makes it more profitable for other countries to produce more fossil fuels. But if both types of policies are implemented in parallel and in equal magnitude, these two effects can exactly offset each other: reduced supply is offset by reduced demand, muting or even eliminating the effect on global prices and hence the leakage problem. Conversely, a lopsided policy approach that addresses only demand or only supply will continue to generate leakage, demonstrating how the two kinds of policies can create synergies if pursued with similar ambition.In this study, I consider leakage under both types of climate policies and argue that these policies are better thought of as partners that complement each other, and not rivals or alternative policies, as they are commonly seen. I demonstrate this point using standard neoclassical economic theory. This exercise demonstrates conceptually symmetric leakage effects from both demand-side and supply-side policies—if each type of policy is pursued alone. But when both types of policies are pursued in parallel, their individual weaknesses become synergies, mitigating leakage.I first demonstrate this effect using a simple theoretical model that shows the effects of each policy type on the regional distribution of fossil fuel production and consumption. It shows how leakage can be reduced or eliminated, demonstrating that leakage can be eliminated by pursuing supply- and demand-side policies in tandem and with equal ambition.In addition to this theoretical exercise, I use an empirically calibrated model of US and global markets for oil and gas, developed in Prest (2022), to conduct a quantitative exercise of the synergies produced by pursuing supply-side policies (such as reduced development of oil and gas on US federal lands and waters) in parallel with the more commonly implemented demand-side ones (such as fuel economy standards). The results demonstrate how such policies complement each other by mitigating or even potentially eliminating leakage.Beyond the issue of leakage, I outline other benefits of pursuing parallel policies, from both economic and political economy perspectives. I also discuss how the demand-centric structure of existing emissions accounting systems inefficiently skews policymakers’ incentives away from supply-side actions and in favor of demand-side ones. Overall, supply-side policies represent underappreciated tools for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, given their complementarities with more commonly pursued demand-side policies. This underappreciation is a contributor to the disproportionate focus by policymakers and economists alike on demand-side policies like fuel economy standards and power plant emissions intensity regulations. |
| Date: | 2022–04–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-22-06&r=mac |
| By: | Leonor Dormido (Banco de España); Isabel Garrido (Banco de España); Pilar L´Hotellerie-Fallois (Banco de España); Javier Santillán (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the fight against climate change and for sustainable growth has been gaining prominence on the international agenda. Reducing pollutant emissions depends on a sufficiently large number of countries adopting efficient mitigating measures that are in line with international agreements. International cooperation is essential to deliver on the commitments undertaken pursuant to these agreements, implement the energy transition and stop climate change. Both the G-20, some of whose members are among the largest greenhouse gas emitters, and the International Monetary Fund are increasingly taking into account climate issues when performing their functions. The European Union plays an active and leading role in this global commitment and is pursuing increasingly ambitious goals. In compliance with the European Green Deal, the European Union has enshrined its goal of climate neutrality in the European Climate Law and has launched a number of groundbreaking policies to implement it, such as the “Fit for 55” package. The war in Ukraine adds an element of uncertainty to this path, given the importance of Russia as a supplier of fossil fuels to the European Union. |
| Keywords: | climate change, decarbonisation, European Union, G-20, IMF, COP, Green Deal, Ukraine/Russia. |
| JEL: | F53 P18 H23 H87 Q54 F64 F68 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:2213e&r=mac |
| By: | V. V. Chari; Rishabh Kirpalani; Luis Perez |
| Abstract: | The epidemiological literature suggests that virus transmission occurs only when individuals are in relatively close contact. We show that if society can control the extent to which economic agents are exposed to the virus and agents can commit to contracts, virus externalities are local, and competitive equilibria are efficient. The Second Welfare Theorem also holds. These results still apply when infection status is imperfectly observed and when agents are privately informed about their infection status. If society cannot control virus exposure, then virus externalities are global and competitive equilibria are inefficient, but the policy implications are very different from those in the literature. Economic activity in this version of our model can be inefficiently low, in contrast to the conventional wisdom that viruses create global externalities and result in inefficiently high economic activity. If agents cannot commit, competitive equilibria are inefficient because of a novel pecuniary externality. |
| Keywords: | Lockdowns; Virus exposure; Local public goods |
| JEL: | H41 E60 D62 |
| Date: | 2023–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:95936&r=mac |
| By: | Sonsoles Gallego (Banco de España); Isabel Garrido (Banco de España); Ignacio Hernando (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | Entre 2009 y 2010, el Fondo Monetario Internacional creó, en respuesta a la crisis financiera global, una serie de líneas de préstamo destinadas a la prevención y al aseguramiento frente a crisis. Estas líneas preventivas fueron dirigidas a países con fundamentos y políticas económicas sólidos, pero expuestos a riesgos de contagio financiero. La utilización de estos instrumentos —medida en número de países— fue reducida durante sus diez primeros años de existencia, y con la irrupción de la pandemia tres nuevos países de Latinoamérica solicitaron acogerse a ellos. La valoración de estas líneas sugiere que han cumplido la función de aseguramiento para la que fueron concebidas. De cara a la próxima revisión de estas líneas, y a la luz de la experiencia reciente, se analizan las posibles causas de su limitada demanda y se aportan elementos relevantes en el diseño de las «estrategias de salida», uno de los aspectos que más atención han suscitado en su utilización. |
| Keywords: | FMI, líneas de aseguramiento, línea de crédito flexible, línea de liquidez a corto plazo, Latinoamérica |
| JEL: | F30 F33 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:2224&r=mac |
| By: | Alberto Bucci (Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods (DEMM) - University of Milan, and ICEA (International Center for Economic Analysis, Canada); Riccardo Calcagno (Department of Management and Production Engineering, Polytechnic University of Turin); Simone Marsiglio (Department of Economics and Management, University of Pisa); Tiago Miguel Guterres Neves Sequeira (University of Coimbra, Centre for Business and Economics Research, CeBER and Faculty of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We extend a two-sector endogenous growth model based on human capital accumulation along two different directions. First, by postulating that individuals may invest time-resources not only in the accumulation of human capital (general knowledge) but also in the accumulation of financial literacy (specific financial knowledge). Second, we maintain that the efficiency with which savings are transferred intertemporally may improve over time, e.g. through the presence of a financial system. We use the model to analyze the relationship between financial literacy and economic growth in the long run. We show that the properties of the balanced growth path equilibrium critically depend on how human capital and financial literacy affect the efficiency of the financial system. Moreover, finance promotes long-run economic growth through two alternative channels, driven either by dynamics of financial returns or by human capital accumulation, respectively. By calibrating the model to the US economy over the 1950-2019 period, we quantitatively assess the effect of financial literacy on long-term growth and the relative magnitude of the two channels. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth, Financial Literacy, Financial Return, Human Capital. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gmf:papers:2022-08&r=mac |
| By: | Arun Gupta; Horacio Sapriza |
| Abstract: | We construct a novel signal of bank expectations utilizing confidential data and a regulatory constraint imposed on bank internal capital markets during the 2008 crisis that made internal equity injections to commercial bank subsidiaries difficult to reverse. When the US government initiated a $176 billion recapitalization program during the crisis, this constraint made it costly ex-ante for multi-bank holding companies (MBHC) to use these funds for the purpose of recapitalizing subsidiaries against future anticipated losses; in contrast, lending the funds to subsidiaries was exempt from the constraint and thus carried an option value for future reallocations across sibling subsidiaries. Several findings emerge. First, we show that MBHCs treated internal equity injections as a scarce resource when emergency funds arrived, whereas single-bank holding companies did not because the constraint was not costly for them. Second, we find that excess internal equity injections by MBHCs form a signal of their expectations for post-crisis subsidiary outlook—i.e., future profitability, supervisory ratings, and credit originations. Third, the geographical aggregation of these individual bank signals predicts the long-run real effects of the 2008 crisis on small businesses across US states—i.e., post-crisis growth in small business revenues, employment, establishments, payroll, and wages. Our study provides a more direct test of "banks as efficient information producers" (e.g., Diamond (1984), Fama (1985)), and is the first to show that credible signals of this bank knowledge can be extracted from the internal capital markets, allowing regulators to forecast in real time a geographical rank-order for post-crisis real outcomes at small firms. This new policy tool can be seen as a potential side benefit of government-sponsored bank recapitalization programs, of which there have been 33 in the past 40 years worldwide. |
| Keywords: | Macrofinance; Financial Crises; Banks; financial intermediation; internal capital markets; SME; TARP |
| JEL: | G01 G21 G28 G30 |
| Date: | 2022–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:95579&r=mac |
| By: | Dobridge, Christine L. (Federal Reserve Board); Lester, Rebecca (Stanford U); Whitten, Andrew (US Department of the Treasury) |
| Abstract: | Does going public affect the amount and type of corporate tax planning? Using a panel of U.S. corporate tax return data from 1994 to 2018, we show that IPO completion is associated with the implementation of multinational income shifting strategies central to the current international tax policy debate. Specifically, firms (i) expand their foreign tax haven presence, (ii) enter into cross-border agreements that accompany intangible asset transfers to foreign subsidiaries, and (iii) increase their level of foreign related-party payments around the time that they go public. The effects are strongest among firms that switch to more sophisticated tax advisors in the years preceding the IPO. In contrast, we observe little domestic tax planning because large stock option deductions, which increase as a consequence of the IPO, provide large domestic tax shields. The paper contributes to the nascent literature studying IPOs by documenting the types and timing of specific tax strategies that enable public firms to remain lightly taxed in the post-IPO period. Furthermore, the findings imply that U.S. tax policies targeted at early-stage innovative firms are critical for retaining domestically developed IP--and the income earned on such assets--for the U.S. tax base. |
| JEL: | D12 E21 H24 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:4064&r=mac |
| By: | Pesek, Sophie (Resources for the Future); Raimi, Daniel (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 seeks to dramatically increase clean energy innovation, manufacturing, and deployment in the United States. Unlike most previous federal energy policy, it ties many incentives to labor requirements, domestic manufacturing, and project location. We examine a provision of the law that offers additional financial incentives for projects to locate within “energy communities.†Our analysis indicates that the law’s definition of energy communities could vary widely depending on interpretation of key phrases. In addition, we find that the law, as written, is unlikely to steer investment specifically toward those communities that will be most heavily affected by a transition away from fossil energy. We illustrate these findings through three interpretations of the energy communities definition and show that it does not specifically target fossil energy–dependent local economies, but instead is likely to cover between 42 and 50 percent of US land area. We then offer our own definition of “energy communities, †which more narrowly targets locations that have been or are heavily dependent on fossil fuels as a driver of local economic activity, employment, and government revenue. |
| Date: | 2022–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-22-12&r=mac |
| By: | Matteo Bizzarri (University of Naples Federico II and CSEF.); Fabrizio Panebianco (Università Cattolica di Milano.); Paolo Pin (Università di Siena and BIDSA.) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effect of homophily in an epidemics between two groups of agents that differ in vaccination rates (“vaxxers" and “anti-vaxxers"). The steady state infection rate is hump-shaped in homophily, whereas the cumulative number of agents infected during an outbreak is u-shaped. If vaccination rates are endogenous, homophily has the opposite impact on the two groups, but the qualitative behavior of the aggregate is unchanged. However, the sign of the group-level impact is the opposite if vaccination is motivated by infection risk or by peer pressure. If motivations are group-specific, homophily can be harmful for both groups. |
| Keywords: | Homophily; seasonal diseases; vaccination; anti-vaccination movements; SIS-type model. |
| JEL: | D62 D85 I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2023–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:672&r=mac |
| By: | Junya Ino; Fabrice Murtin; Michal Shinwell |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the conceptual framing and measurement of transboundary impacts in the context of the 2030 Agenda. It starts by defining transboundary impacts and reviewing different measurement approaches used so far. It then proposes a typology of transboundary impacts, classified depending on the type of international flows involved: financial flows, trade flows, movements of people, environmental flows and knowledge transfers. For each of these flows, transboundary impacts can be either positive or negative, depending on the aspect considered and on the conditions in origin and destination countries. Based on this framework, the paper presents evidence from a qualitative survey of experts about the potential impact of these five flows on each of the 17 Goals and 169 targets of the 2030 Agenda. Transboundary impacts are deemed by experts to be quite pervasive across SDGs, but also limited in scope to a small number of well-identified targets. Finally, the framework is operationalised for some specific areas within each of the five types of flows mentioned above, with the help of some proxy indicators. At the global level, the five types of transboundary relationships are dominated by three macro-regions, namely China, the United States-Canada and Europe, mainly reflecting the large size of these regions in most cases. When the assessment is conducted in relative terms (i.e. when impacts are normalised by population size or GDP), the picture becomes more nuanced, as 7 out of the 11 world regions considered record at least two large transboundary impacts. While this operationalisation is only meant to show how the proposed framework could be applied to concrete cases, the paper recommends its applications to other areas within each of the five flows, based on a richer set of indicators. |
| Keywords: | Sustainable Development Goals, Transboundary Impacts |
| JEL: | Q01 Q56 F00 |
| Date: | 2021–11–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:wiseaa:01-en&r=mac |
| By: | Breyer-Mayländer, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Die Zuversicht, mit der nicht nur die Zeitungsbranche in das Jahr 2022 gestartet war, wich bereits nach wenigen Wochen einer zunehmenden Alarm- und Krisenstimmung. Nicht zuletzt die Verunsicherung der Verbraucherinnen und Verbraucher hatte dazu geführt, dass eine ganze Reihe von Planungen sowohl im Vertriebs- als auch Werbegeschäft nicht umsetzbar waren. Zugleich befindet sich die Branche nach wie vor in der Phase der digitalen Transformation, da zahlreiche Marktstrukturen sich mit steigender Dynamik verändert haben und auch im Sinne einer Transition weiter verändern. Als Ergänzung zu den bekannten Branchenstudien hat der Bereich Medienmanagement der Hochschule Offenburg zum Jahreswechsel eine Umfrage durchgeführt, aus der hervorgeht, welche Schwerpunkte die Expertinnen und Experten der Verlage 2023 im Lesermarkt setzen wollen. |
| Keywords: | Abopreise, Studie, Zeitungsbranche |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ouwpmm:70&r=mac |
| By: | Daunfeldt, Sven-Olov (Confederation of Swedish Enterprise); McKelvie, Alexander (Syracuse University, New York, United States.); Seerar Westerberg, Hans (Institute of Retail Economics (Handelns Forskningsinstitut)) |
| Abstract: | Hiring new employees is an important part of a new venture’s growth. However, we still have limited understanding of the human capital needs of high-growth new ventures, and how their pace of growth relates to whom they hire. We contribute to the literature by investigating 64, 404 hires among growing new ventures in Sweden from 2008 to 2015, finding that individuals with higher educational attainment and previous management experience are more likely to be hired by high-growth new ventures. In contrast, we find no indications that unemployed individuals or people that are outside the labor force are more likely to be hired by the fastest growing new ventures. High-growth new ventures are thus more selective in their hiring decisions than new ventures with lower sales growth rates, suggesting that ‘the right person’ is more important than ‘the right time’. These differences in hiring practices are most prevalent during new ventures’ first three years of operation and become more negligible as the ventures age. |
| Keywords: | Hiring; High-growth new ventures; Firm growth; Human capital |
| JEL: | D21 D22 J63 L25 |
| Date: | 2023–01–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:hfiwps:0025&r=mac |
| By: | S. Lakshmi Naaraayanan; Daniel Wolfenzon |
| Abstract: | We compare the investment of standalone firms across regions after a positive shock to the investment opportunities generated by a large-scale highway development project. We show that the standalones’ investment sensitivity is lower in regions with a higher density of business groups in the local area. We investigate mechanisms driving our results and find support for a financing mechanism whereby banks allocate capital preferentially to group-affiliated firms in responding to the increase in credit demand. Overall, our study documents that business groups have spillover effects on standalone firms. |
| JEL: | G31 G32 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31107&r=mac |
| By: | Simon Briole (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Augustin Colette (INERIS - Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques); Emmanuelle Lavaine (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | While a sharp decline in air pollution has been documented during early Covid-19 lockdown periods, the stability and homogeneity of this effect are still under debate. Building on pollution data with a very high level of resolution, this paper estimates the impact of lockdown policies on P M 2.5 exposure in France over the whole year 2020. Our analyses highlight a surprising and undocumented increase in exposure to particulate pollution during lockdown periods. This result is observed during both lockdown periods, in early spring and late fall, and is robust to several identification strategies and model specifications. Combining administrative datasets with machine learning techniques, this paper also highlights strong spatial heterogeneity in lockdown effects, especially according to long-term pollution exposure. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, P M 2.5, lockdown, spatial heterogeneity, machine learning, Covid-19 |
| Date: | 2023–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04084912&r=mac |
| By: | Jeremy Atack; Robert A. Margo; Paul Rhode |
| Abstract: | The consensus view among economic historians is that wage inequality in American manufacturing followed an inverted-U path from the early nineteenth century until just before World War Two. The previous literature, however, has been unable to fully document this path over time, or fully assess the role of explanatory factors such as changes in firm organization and technology. We provide fresh evidence that allow us to better document the inverted-U and its causes. In the first part of the paper, we use the U.S. Department of Labor’s 1899 “Hand and Machine Labor” study to argue that wage inequality within manufacturing establishments rose over the nineteenth century, primarily because of increasing division of labor In the second part, we use data for Massachusetts from state reports to construct a new time series on wage inequality among production workers, which declined from the early 1890s to the late 1930s, mainly because of compression in the left tail of the distribution. Analysis of industry panel data suggest that electrification was the main factor behind the compression. |
| JEL: | N31 N32 N62 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31163&r=mac |
| By: | Asongu, Simplice A; Odhiambo, Nicholas M |
| Abstract: | The present study investigates how increasing bank accounts and bank concentration affect mobile money innovations in 148 countries. It builds on scholarly and policy concerns in the literature that increasing bank accounts may not be having the desired effects on financial inclusion on the one hand and on the other, that bank concentration which is a proxy for market power is a relevant mobile money innovation demand factor. The empirical evidence is based on Tobit regressions. From the findings, it is apparent that boosting bank accounts is positively related to the three mobile money innovations (i.e. mobile bank accounts and the mobile phone used to send money). Moreover, some critical levels of bank account penetration require complementary policies in order to maintain the positive relationship between boosting bank accounts and positive outcomes in terms of money mobile innovations. Conversely, financial inclusion in terms of the three mobile money innovations is not significantly apparent upon enhancing bank concentration. Policy implications are discussed in the light of the provided thresholds for complementary policies. |
| Keywords: | Mobile money; technology; diffusion; financial inclusion; inclusive innovation, information asymmetry |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uza:wpaper:29949&r=mac |
| By: | Hirokuni Iiboshi; Daikuke Ozaki; Yui Yoshii |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of the time and financial costs of parenting on the lifespan of married couples to explore the origins of the child penalty. Using Japanese aggregate data from the "Basic Survey of Social Life, " which includes a sample of over two hundred thousand Japanese people, the study extends the family model introduced by Blundell et al.(2018) to a life cycle model of heterogeneous married couples with idiosyncratic labor productivity shocks. We then quantitatively analyze the time allocation preferences, including child care. After fitting the model's calculated values to the data, we conduct policy simulations for married couples based on their educational background. The calculations demonstrate that an increase in assets leads to a decrease in female work hours and an increase in childcare hours. Additionally, a 25 % increase in the income replacement rate for parental leave increases the take-up of parental leave by 20 %, while a permanent 10 % increase in wages increases it by 4%. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2304.11531&r=mac |
| By: | Ahn, Sohyun (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Financing decisions are some of the most important decisions firms make. Many scholars have focused on studying the mechanism behind these decisions, and comparing the outcomes of different sources of capital. Studies have found that firms’ financial decisions interact with other business decisions, such as investment decisions. Moreover, different sources of capital affect other players in the market differently, through which firms’ financing decisions affect the overall structure of the economy. This article examines the relationship between financing and other firm characteristics to shed light on firms’ strategies and performance in Korea. Korean venture firms’ unique characteristics may affect their business strategies and performance. In this article, I analyze the characteristic of venture firms by focusing on their financing decisions. Specifically, I categorize and define venture firms by the sources of capital utilized and compare their characteristics and performance using survey data from 2021. Keywords: venture firms, venture capital, venture financing, small and medium-sized enterprises, SMEs, capital financing, financing decisions, equity financing, debt financing, imperfect information, imformation asymmetry, angel investment, Korea, innovation policy |
| Keywords: | venture firms; venture capital; venture financing; small and medium-sized enterprises; SMEs; capital financing; financing decisions; equity financing; debt financing; imperfect information; imformation asymmetry; angel investment; Korea; innovation policy |
| JEL: | D81 D83 L25 O30 O31 O38 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2023–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2023_008&r=mac |
| By: | David Bardey (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, UNIANDES - Universidad de los Andes [Bogota]); Philippe de Donder (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Personalized medicine is still in its infancy, with costly genetic tests providing little actionable information in terms of efficient prevention decisions. As a consequence, few people undertake these tests currently, and health insurance contracts pool all agents irrespective of their genetic background. Cheaper and especially more informative tests will induce more people to undertake these tests and will impact not only the pricing but also the type of health insurance contracts. We develop a setting with endogenous prevention decisions and we study which contract type (pooling or separating) emerges at equilibrium as a function of the proportion of agents undertaking the genetic test as well as of the informativeness of this test. Starting from the current low take-up rate generating at equilibrium a pooling contract with no prevention effort, we obtain that an increase in the take-up rate has first an ambiguous impact on welfare, and then unambiguously decreases welfare as one moves from a pooling to a separating equilibrium. It is only once the take-up rate is large enough that the equilibrium is separating that any further increase in take-up rate increases aggregate welfare, by a composition effect. However, a better pooling contract in which policyholders undertake preventive actions (and lower their health risk) can also be attained if the informativeness of the genetic tests increases sufficiently. |
| Keywords: | discrimination risk, informational value of test, personalized medecine, pooling and separating equilibria. |
| Date: | 2023–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04082748&r=mac |
| By: | Kopp, Raymond J. (Resources for the Future); Pizer, William (Resources for the Future); Rennert, Kevin (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from carbon-intensive industrial sectors like steel, aluminum, cement, and chemicals will be aided by the introduction of new low- and zero-carbon production process technologies. While the cost of new technologies will decline over time, in the short run they will likely cost more than more carbon-intensive, incumbent technologies. When the products from these sectors are exchanged on highly competitive international markets, decarbonization efforts could therefore lead to lost competitive advantage vis-à -vis nations with weaker environmental policies.A recent issue brief, “Industrial Decarbonization and Competitiveness: A Domestic Benchmark Approach†(hereafter, “Benchmark†), introduced an idea for a domestic emissions reduction policy that targets the US industrial sector, paired with a border adjustment tariff. The Clean Competition Act recently introduced by Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) builds on the paired policy structure. As US industry continues to decarbonize, these paired policies would protect domestic producers from competitive imports, maintain competitiveness in export markets, and provide incentives for trading partners to increase environmental ambition.In this issue brief, we introduce the related idea of a “performance alliance†in which a group of countries align industrial decarbonization efforts and trade policies to maintain competitiveness, limit leakage of emissions, and provide incentives for others to pursue ambitious decarbonization policies. This idea can be traced to work on “climate clubs, †initially popularized by William Nordhaus. The most recent reference to a climate club can be found in the G7 Leaders Communiqué, released May 20, 2022. Catalyzing leadership, action, and inclusivity is a key element of the G7 grouping and suggests the idea of an alliance more than the notion of exclusivity and protectionism suggested by a club.The international policy proposed in the Clean Competition Act and the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) proposal point to implicit climate clubs. In the EU case, a nation exporting primary commodities to the European Union could be a member of the club if that nation imposes a carbon price on its domestic production. That carbon price for the nation’s primary commodities would have to be equal to or greater in magnitude to the price charged within the European Union. In such a case the exporting nation does not face an EU-imposed border fee. In the case of the Clean Competition Act, a nation exporting primary commodities to the United States could be a member of the club if the GHG intensity of its domestic primary commodity production is less than the US benchmark intensity. In such a case the exporting nation does not face a US-imposed border fee. If one were to consider the Clean Competition Act and the EU CBAM as forms of climate clubs, true members of each club might further align their own border measures to match the European Union and the United States.Admission to such an EU club requires the adoption of a common policy to address emissions from the industrial sector; that policy is a specific and explicit carbon price. Admission to such a US club requires environmental performance on a par with the United States, where that performance is measured in terms of GHG intensity of production. We might think of the EU approach as a policy club, while thinking of the US as a performance club.In the remainder of this issue brief we elaborate on the idea of an alliance, rather than a “club, †where members work to drive industrial sector decarbonization–this would happen through an alignment of efforts and advanced technology that levels the playing field of economic competition and negates the need for border measures within the alliance. Border measures would remain a component of this approach for countries that do not choose to increase their ambition and join the alliance. The border measures need not be harmonized among the alliance members. This reduces the protectionist feel of the alliance. |
| Date: | 2022–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-22-05&r=mac |
| By: | Jian Yang |
| Abstract: | We deal with coalitional games possessing strictly positive values. Individually rational allocations of such a game has clear fractional interpretations. Many concepts, including the long-existing core and other stability notions more recently proposed by Yang \cite{Y22}, can all be re-cast in this fractional mode. The latter allows a certain ranking between games, which we deem as in the sense of ``centripetality'', to imply a clearly describable shift in the games' stable solutions. %These trends would be preserved after the imposition of the restriction that fractions be positive as well. When coalitions' values are built on both random outcomes and a common positively homogeneous reward function characterizing players' enjoyments from their shares, the above link could help explain why aversion to risk often promotes cooperation. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2304.10652&r=mac |
| By: | Lihua Lei; Roshni Sahoo; Stefan Wager |
| Abstract: | Practitioners often use data from a randomized controlled trial to learn a treatment assignment policy that can be deployed on a target population. A recurring concern in doing so is that, even if the randomized trial was well-executed (i.e., internal validity holds), the study participants may not represent a random sample of the target population (i.e., external validity fails)--and this may lead to policies that perform suboptimally on the target population. We consider a model where observable attributes can impact sample selection probabilities arbitrarily but the effect of unobservable attributes is bounded by a constant, and we aim to learn policies with the best possible performance guarantees that hold under any sampling bias of this type. In particular, we derive the partial identification result for the worst-case welfare in the presence of sampling bias and show that the optimal max-min, max-min gain, and minimax regret policies depend on both the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) and the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of potential outcomes given covariates. To avoid finite-sample inefficiencies of plug-in estimates, we further provide an end-to-end procedure for learning the optimal max-min and max-min gain policies that does not require the separate estimation of nuisance parameters. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2304.11735&r=mac |
| By: | Robinson-Hamm, Jacqueline N (Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology); Kale, Vijay; Raetzman, Lori; Block, Kirsten; Cole, Calvin; Fester, Douglas; Haelterman, Nele A.T (Baylor College of Medicine / Brendan H Lee); Kovacs, Elizabeth; Litzinger, Mary; Lucas, Marsha |
| Abstract: | In 2022, the Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology (FASEB) convened the Early Career Representative Engagement Task Force, charged with identifying • needs of early-career scientists that can be addressed by scientific societies and • ways to keep early-career scientist members and representatives on volunteer bodies as active, engaged members throughout their career. Through Task Force deliberation, an online survey of hundreds of early-career scientists, virtual focus group sessions, and consultation of existing data rich resources, clear themes were identified where scientific and professional societies can make a positive impact. Overall, there is a perception among early-career scientists that societies can act as important spaces to find community and support. The Task Force has developed the following best practices for scientific and professional societies to implement in order to support early-career scientists and encourage active membership contributing to the mission of the society throughout their career. A subset of recommendations is directed specifically to FASEB. Theme 1: Networks and Mentors • Recommendation 1.1: Connect scientists beyond local geography and home institution or organization to expand networks and mentors of early-career scientist members. Theme 2: Career Exploration and Career Transition Readiness • Recommendation 2.1: Actively combat negative stereotypes associated with pursuing careers other than academic tenure track research positions through programming and awards. • Recommendation 2.2: Support members preparing for career transition, especially current PhD students and academic postdocs. Theme 3: Safe and Inclusive Environments • Recommendation 3.1: Create programming and awards to promote inclusivity of environments in the scientific ecosystem. • Recommendation 3.2: Strive to diversify leadership, committees, task forces, and similar bodies, as well as staff. Be transparent about the diversity of leadership and track changes over time. • Recommendation 3.3: Create and support affinity-based interest groups to combat isolation. • Recommendation 3.4: If not already in place, establish a harassment policy. Additionally, for all events, enforce a code of conduct. Theme 4: Support for International Scientists in the U.S. • Recommendation 4.1: Despite not being able to change the complexities of the visa process, target programming and awards to support international scientists. Societies may be successful in supporting early-career scientists’ development and increased engagement in the society mission in a variety of ways. However, the Task Force resoundingly concluded that early-career scientist representation in society governance is a key catalyst to ensuring needs of early-career scientists are reflected in society programming, awards, and overall vision. Theme 5: Society Structure and Governance • Recommendation 5.1: Have at least one designated early-career representative on the highest body of governance with voting rights, codified in bylaws. • Recommendation 5.2: Thoughtfully examine limitations placed on certain membership categories and consider revision to promote active participation from all members. • Recommendation 5.3: Maintain an early-career membership category with reduced dues. • Recommendation 5.4: Retain membership for individuals in a variety of career pathways, not only in research. • Recommendation 5.5: Utilize inclusive language in membership category nomenclature as to not diminish other member categories. Ample opportunity exists for societies to engage early-career scientists through programming and awards, aimed to elevate scientists on a national scale and provide opportunities for career growth. Volunteer service for individual projects may result in a larger leadership role over time. Accounting for needs of early-career scientists can help keep early-career scientists involved in the mission of the society as lifelong champions. |
| Date: | 2023–04–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:vgrpq&r=mac |