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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Guido Lorenzoni; Iván Werning |
| Abstract: | This paper isolates the role of conflict or disagreement on inflation in two ways. In the first part of the paper, we present a stylized model, kept purposefully away from traditional macro models. Inflation arises despite the complete absence of money, credit, interest rates, production, and employment. Inflation is due to conflict; it cannot be explained by monetary policy or departures from a natural rate of output or employment. In contrast, the second part of the paper develops a flexible framework that nests many traditional macroeconomic models. We include both goods and labor to study the interaction of price and wage inflation. Our main results provide a decomposition of inflation into “adjustment” and “conflict” inflation, highlighting the essential nature of the latter. Conflict should be viewed as the proximate cause of inflation, fed by other root causes. Our framework sits on top of a wide set of particular models that can endogenize conflict. |
| JEL: | E0 E12 E31 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31099&r=mac |
| By: | Ms. Inutu Lukonga |
| Abstract: | Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) promise many benefits but, if not well designed, they could have undesired consequences, including for monetary policy. Issuing an unremunerated CBDC or a wholesale CBDC does not change the objectives of monetary policy or the operational framework for monetary policy. CBDCs can, however, induce changes in the retail, wholesale and cross border payments that have negative spillover effects on monetary policy, through their effects on money velocity, bank deposit disintermediation, volatility of bank reserves, currency substitution, and capital flows. Countries most vulnerable are those with banking systems dominated by small retail deposits and demand deposits, low levels of digital payments and weak macro fundamentals. Proposed CBDC design features, such as caps on CBDC holdings and unremunerating the CBDC can moderate disintermediation risks, but they are not sufficient. Central banks will need to ensure that unintended macroeconomic risks are comprehensively identified and mitigated. |
| Keywords: | Central Bank Digital Currencies; CBDC; CBDC Pilots; Monetary Policy; Islamic Finance; impact monetary policy implementation; design option; unremunerated CBDC; monetary policy implication; deposit disintermediation; Commercial banks; Velocity of money; Islamic banking; Monetary base; Global |
| Date: | 2023–03–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/060&r=mac |
| By: | Carlos Alberto Piscarreta Pinto Ferreira |
| Abstract: | The aim of this empirical paper is to understand the portfolio decisions of banks regarding their asset allocation to sovereign bonds applied to the case of Japan, over the period 2002-21. The issue is relevant because globally central banks are moving to a passive holder or even net seller stance, raising the question of whether banks can be counted among the investors which will replace them. Japan makes an interesting case since Japanese banks are among the banks in advanced economies with a larger share of non-official holdings of domestic sovereign debt, their mean ratio of gross claims on the central government to total assets is about three times above average values in the United States or in the Euro Area, and government portfolios are relatively more homogeneous. We contribute to the existing literature by exploring the impact of unconventional monetary policy on sovereign bond bank demand and putting to test the significance of risk on banks´ asset portfolio decisions using a dynamic rather than a static setting. Our results show that banks struggling to grow, more diversified, better capitalized, or larger banks during expansion periods tend to hold relatively fewer sovereign bonds. On the contrary, past higher profitability, higher economic volatility and funding risk encourage relatively greater holdings. Though less clearly, data also suggests that banks facing weaker loan performance and regional banks with more significant need of collateral hold a higher proportion of sovereign bonds. Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing had a major disruptive effect over banks’ government bond demand. Excess reserves at the Bank of Japan became a low risk/low return alternative to government bonds, as banks with relatively higher excess reserves have relatively less government bond holdings in their assets. Going forward, only a reversion of the monetary base expansion may help government bonds regain their role of the single riskless asset for Japanese banks. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign Debt, Portfolio Choice, Banks, Monetary Policy, Panel Data |
| JEL: | C23 E58 G11 G21 H63 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp02642023&r=mac |
| By: | Oyadeyi, Olajide |
| Abstract: | The Turkish Lira is in the midst of a currency crisis, there's no other way to phrase it. USD/TRY rates have surged almost 42 percent and EUR/TRY rates have risen over 37 percent since the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) made a surprise 100-bps rate decrease at the end of September. Under Governor Sahap Kavcioglu's tenure, the CBRT has lost all appearance of independence, owing to heavy-handed pressure from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The currency crisis that has bedeviled the Turkish Lira in recent months has already taken a negative turn, and another negative shift could be on the way, with the CBRT expected to maintain its rate cuts in the near future. Turkey's short-term external debt stock has risen to $124.4 billion, a growth of +8.8% since the end of 2020, according to news released today. The rise in the USD/TRY and EUR/TRY exchange rates will only exacerbate Turkey's financial woes in the coming months. According to CBRT data, approximately 43 percent of the country's debt is denominated in US dollars, with just over 25 percent pegged in Euros. This article explains the implications of such a move by the Turkish authorities on a developing economy like Nigeria. |
| Keywords: | Turkish Lira, Currency Crisis, Turkey |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 F41 F45 |
| Date: | 2021–12–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116804&r=mac |
| By: | Yang Zhou (Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization and Junir Research Fellow, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, JAPAN); Shigeto Kitano (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | Emerging markets have experienced land booms and busts along with international capital inflows and outflows repeatedly. This study quantitatively examines the effectiveness of (i) macroprudential policies targeting land markets and (ii) capital controls targeting capital inflows and outflows. We analyze which policy better manages the coincidence between land booms (busts) and capital inflows (outflows). We build a small open economy NK-DSGE model in which banks choose their asset portfolio between physical capital and land subject to financial constraints. The quantitative results show that the superiority of the two policies depends on the type of shock impacting a small open economy. In the case of domestic land market shocks, macroprudential policies enhance welfare, whereas capital controls reduce welfare. Conversely, in the case of foreign interest rate shocks, the superiority of the two policies is reversed: capital controls enhance welfare, while macroprudential policies deteriorate welfare. |
| Keywords: | Capital control; Macroprudential policy; Financial frictions; Balance sheets channel; DSGE |
| JEL: | E69 F32 F38 F41 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2023-12&r=mac |
| By: | Hall, Viv B.; Thomson, Peter |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether the boosted HP filter (bHP) proposed by Phillips and Shi (2021) might be preferred for New Zealand trend and growth cycle analysis, relative to using the standard HP filter (HP1600). We do this for a representative range of quarterly macroeconomic time series typically used in small theoretical and empirical macroeconomic models, and address the following questions. Tradition dictates that business cycle periodicities lie between 6 and 32 quarters (e.g. Baxter and King, 1999) (BK). In the context of more recent business cycle durations, should periodicities up to 40 quarters or more now be considered? Phillips and Shi (2021) propose two stopping rules for selecting a bHP trend. Does it matter which is applied? We propose other trend selection criteria based on the cut-off frequency and sharpness of the trend filter. Are stylised business cycle facts from bHP filtering materially different to those produced from HP1600? In particular, does bHP filtering lead to New Zealand growth cycles which are noticeably different from those associated with HP1600 or BK filtering? HP1600 is commonly used as an omnibus filter across all key macroeconomic variables. Does the greater flexibility of bHP filtering provide better alternatives? We conclude that the 6 to 32 quarter business cycle periodicity is sufficient to reflect New Zealand growth cycles and determine stylised business cycle facts and, for our representative 13-variable macroeconomic data set, using a bHP filter (2HP1600) as an omnibus filter is preferable to using the HP1600 filter. |
| Keywords: | Boosting, Hodrick-Prescott filter, Business cycles, Transfer function sharpness, New Zealand, |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:21184&r=mac |
| By: | Jahan Abdul Raheem (University of Waikato); Gazi M. Hassan (University of Waikato); Mark J. Holmes (University of Waikato) |
| Abstract: | Remittances contribute to welfare enhancement and poverty alleviation in many remittance-recipient economies. However, recent literature also focuses on the macroeconomic impact of remittances due to their increasing inflow into these economies. We use an unbalanced heterogeneous panel Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) methodology to study the impact of remittances on intermediate monetary transmission channels in remittance-recipient countries. In particular, we analyse the effect of remittances on credit and exchange rate channels in these economies. We, initially, estimate credit and exchange rate impulse responses (IRs) to a shock in remittances. The IRs estimates suggest a significant variation among countries in credit and exchange rates in response to a shock in remittances. In the next stage, we run a cross-section regression of these responses to identify the factors influencing the IRs of these variables. We find that the magnitude of remittances received by an economy significantly impacts the exchange rate channel thus affecting the smooth functioning of the monetary transmission mechanism. However, the effect of remittances on the credit channel is dependent on the level of remittance inflows and savings in remittance-recipient economies. Our finding also reveals that remittances weaken the functioning of the credit channel at a higher level of remittance inflows, especially, when the remittances are higher than approximately five percent of GDP in remittance-recipient economies. Overall, our findings have broad policy implications revealing that policymakers have to pay attention to the possible effects of remittances on intermediate monetary transmission channels in achieving the monetary policy targets. |
| Keywords: | remittances;monetary policy;monetary transmission mechanism |
| JEL: | E5 E52 F24 |
| Date: | 2023–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:23/06&r=mac |
| By: | Jiageng Liu; Igor Makarov; Antoinette Schoar |
| Abstract: | Terra, the third largest cryptocurrency ecosystem after Bitcoin and Ethereum, collapsed in three days in May 2022 and wiped out $50 billion in valuation. At the center of the collapse was a run on a blockchain-based borrowing and lending protocol (Anchor) that promised high yields to its stablecoin (UST) depositors. Using detailed data from the Terra blockchain and trading data from exchanges, we show that the run on Terra was a complex phenomenon that happened across multiple chains and assets. It was unlikely due to concentrated market manipulation by a third party but instead was precipitated by growing concerns about the sustainability of the system. Once a few large holders of UST adjusted their positions on May 7th, 2022, other large traders followed. Blockchain technology allowed investors to monitor each other's actions and amplified the speed of the run. Wealthier and more sophisticated investors were the first to run and experienced much smaller losses. Poorer and less sophisticated investors ran later and had larger losses. The complexity of the system made it difficult even for insiders to understand the buildup of risk. Finally, we draw broader lessons about financial fragility in an environment where a regulatory safety net does not exist, pseudonymous transactions are publicly observable, and market participants are incentivized to monitor the financial health of the system. |
| JEL: | E42 E44 G21 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31160&r=mac |
| By: | Federica Ciocchetta (Bank of Italy); Elisa Guglielminetti (Bank of Italy); Alessandro Mistretta (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | Boom-and-bust cycles in the housing market pose a threat to macroeconomic and financial stability, thus calling for a timely assessment of imbalances. This work sheds light on the drivers of house price dynamics in some euro area economies, investigating whether the increases in house prices underway since 2015 signal a risk of overheating. We show that an Error-Correction-Model (ECM) featuring a long-run relationship between house prices and income and short-run effects of interest rates and housing supply fits the data well in most cases. We then propose a novel model-based misalignment indicator that consists in the difference between actual and predicted house prices once we have removed the component relating to extrapolative house price expectations (bubble-builder component). We find that, in 2021 (the last year in our analysis), prices were slightly undervalued in Italy and Ireland, moderately overvalued in France and Belgium, and significantly overvalued in Spain and Germany. Despite some quantitative differences, our results are broadly in line with the assessment of the European Central Bank. |
| Keywords: | house prices, Error Correction Model (ECM), over-valuation, housing bubbles |
| JEL: | C22 C51 C52 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_764_23&r=mac |
| By: | Ron Alquist; Karlye Dilts Stedman; Robert Jay Kahn |
| Abstract: | We show theoretically and empirically that the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency can lead to economically significant changes in U.S. money market liquidity. We develop a model in which U.S. money market spreads respond to foreign central banks’ exchange-rate management decisions. Foreign central banks remove liquidity from U.S. money markets and cause spreads to widen by selling Treasuries to supply liquidity to their financial systems. Our analysis focuses on the major oil exporting countries with fixed exchange rates because their foreign-exchange market interventions are straightforward to characterize. Our regression analysis shows that shifts in the central banks’ demand for dollar liquidity related to oil price volatility are associated with significantly higher overnight spreads in domestic money markets. A one-standard deviation increase in the demand for dollar liquidity by a central bank in an oil-exporting country leads, on average, to three billion dollars of Treasury sales and a two to six basis point increase in U.S. money market spreads. At the same time, deposits held with the Federal Reserve increase in response to this higher oil-price volatility, which is consistent with the model’s predictions. This evidence indicates that the widespread use of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency acts as a channel that can propagate funding shocks from the rest of the world to the United States. |
| Keywords: | central banking; markets |
| JEL: | E43 G12 G13 G23 |
| Date: | 2022–09–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:94751&r=mac |
| By: | Brandon Tan |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we develop a model incorporating the impact of financial inclusion to study the implications of introducing a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC). CBDCs in developing countries (unlike in advanced countries) have the potential to bank large unbanked populations and boost financial inclusion which can increase overall lending and reduce bank disintermediation risks. Our model captures two key channels. First, CBDC issuance can increase bank deposits from the previously unbanked by incentivizing the opening of bank accounts for access to CBDC wallets (offsetting potential flows from deposits to CBDCs among those already banked). Second, data from CBDC usage allows for the building of credit to reduce credit-risk information asymmetry in lending. We find that CBDC can increase overall lending if (1) bank deposit liquidity risk is low, (2) the size and relative wealth of the previously unbanked population is large, and (3) CBDC is valuable to households as a means of payment or for credit-building. CBDC can still be optimal for household welfare even when overall lending decreases as households benefit from the value of using CBDC for payments, CBDC provides an alternative "safe" savings vehicle, and CBDC generates greater surplus in lending by reducing credit-risk information asymmetry. Most countries are considering a "two-tier" CBDC model, where central banks issue CBDC to commercial banks which in turn distribute them to consumers. If non-bank payment system providers can distribute CBDC, fewer funds will flow into deposit accounts from the unbanked because a bank account is no longer needed to access CBDC. If CBDC data is shareable with banks, those without bank accounts can still build credit and access lower interest rate loans. This design is optimal for welfare if the gains from greater access to CBDC outweigh the contraction in lending. |
| Keywords: | CBDC; Financial Inclusion; Digital currency; CBDC issuance; credit-risk information asymmetry; CBDC data; CBDC model; CBDC wallet; Central Bank digital currencies; Commercial banks; Deposit rates; Loans; Global |
| Date: | 2023–03–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/069&r=mac |
| By: | Timo Boppart; Patrick Kiernan; Per Krusell; Hannes Malmberg |
| Abstract: | Developing countries employ a very large share of their workforce in agriculture, a sector in which their labor productivity is particularly low. We take a macroeconomic approach to analyze the role of agriculture in development. We construct a new database with systematic measures of inputs and outputs of agricultural production around the globe. The data exhibits strong neoclassical features: going from poor to rich countries, capital and intermediate input prices decline dramatically relative to labor prices; concurrently, capital and intermediate input use in agriculture increases by a factor of 300–800 relative to labor. Input intensification accounts for a bit less than two thirds of the agricultural labor productivity gap between the poorest and richest countries. Our observations are well explained by an aggregate agricultural production function with input substitutabilities significantly above unity. On the demand side, standard non-homothetic preferences accurately capture how the expenditure share of agricultural goods varies across the development spectrum. We incorporate our findings into a closed-economy general-equilibrium model with minimal distortions, showing that non-agricultural TFP differences play a much more important role than agricultural TFP differences in explaining income differences. |
| JEL: | E0 O0 O13 Q0 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31101&r=mac |
| By: | Carlotta Balestra; Friderike Oehler |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an overview of the work of the Expert Group on the Joint Distribution of Income, Consumption and Wealth at Micro Level (EG ICW) set up by Eurostat and the OECD. It discusses the challenges of producing joint income, consumption and wealth estimates, assesses their quality, and presents selected experimental results. Although the analysis reveals large differences between countries, a number of general patterns emerge. First, income, consumption and wealth are partially correlated, with the association being stronger in the tails of the joint distribution than around its middle. Second, risk of poverty goes beyond income, with asset and consumption risk of poverty being widespread, especially among some population groups. Third, a large share of households spend more than they earn. This is corroborated by negative median saving rates for households in the bottom income quintile. Fourth, inequalities are significantly higher when using a comprehensive measure of material living standards than a distributional analysis of disposable income would suggest. Looking ahead, this paper calls for further efforts to improve the robustness of the results. |
| Keywords: | consumption inequality, experimental statistics, income inequality, wealth inequality |
| JEL: | C81 D12 D31 E21 I32 |
| Date: | 2023–01–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:wiseaa:11-en&r=mac |
| By: | Ferrarini, Benno (Asian Development Bank); Dagli, Suzette (Asian Development Bank); Mariano, Paul (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Three major global crises since 2008 have pushed up public and external debt ratios and associated risks across much of Asia and the Pacific. This is confirmed by debt ratio projections and evidence of widening pockets of vulnerability picked up by regional heat maps in this paper. By and large, the outlook is not yet suggestive of a widespread debt crisis looming in the region, and risks continue to be highest for economies that have long been struggling with unsustainably high debt because of structural and other challenges that well precede the recent pandemic and other crises. However, even for economies with a seemingly benign outlook, it is increasingly difficult to envisage just how more widespread fiscal pressure and debt distress could be averted indefinitely. A most challenging global environment is hampering growth while raising the cost of borrowing and need for fiscal spending. The premise for restoring public finances and ensuring their sustainability after the pandemic crisis was for exactly opposite conditions to prevail. |
| Keywords: | sovereign debt sustainability; public debt; external debt; debt heat map |
| JEL: | H63 H68 |
| Date: | 2023–04–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0681&r=mac |
| By: | Vadim Elenev; Tim Landvoigt |
| Abstract: | We study sources and implications of undiversified portfolios in a production-based asset pricing model with financial frictions. Households take concentrated positions in a single firm exposed to idiosyncratic shocks because managerial effort requires equity stakes, and because investors gain private benefits from concentrated holdings. Matching data on returns and portfolios, we find that the marginal investor optimally holds 45% of their portfolio in a single firm, incentivizing managerial effort that accounts for 4% of aggregate output. Investors derive control benefits equivalent to 3% points of excess return, rationalizing low observed returns on undiversified holdings in the data. A counterfactual world of full diversification would feature higher risk free rates, lower risk premiums on fully diversified and concentrated assets, less capital accumulation, yet higher consumption and welfare. Exposure to undiversified firm risk can explain approximately 40% of the level and 20% of the volatility of the equity premium. A targeted subsidy that decreases diversification improves welfare by increasing managerial effort and reducing financial frictions. |
| JEL: | E21 G11 G12 G32 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31121&r=mac |
| By: | Soumyadip Sarkar |
| Abstract: | Portfolio management is an essential component of investment strategy that aims to maximize returns while minimizing risk. This paper explores several portfolio management strategies, including asset allocation, diversification, active management, and risk management, and their importance in optimizing portfolio performance. These strategies are examined individually and in combination to demonstrate how they can help investors maximize alpha and minimize beta. Asset allocation is the process of dividing a portfolio among different asset classes to achieve the desired level of risk and return. Diversification involves spreading investments across different securities and sectors to minimize the impact of individual security or sector-specific risks. Active management involves security selection and risk management techniques to generate excess returns while minimizing losses. Risk management strategies, such as stop-loss orders and options strategies, aim to minimize losses in adverse market conditions. The importance of combining these strategies for optimizing portfolio performance is emphasized in this paper. The proper implementation of these strategies can help investors achieve their investment goals over the long-term, while minimizing exposure to risks. A call to action for investors to utilize portfolio management strategies to maximize alpha and minimize beta is also provided. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2304.05900&r=mac |
| By: | Christopher P. Chambers; Georgios Gerasimou |
| Abstract: | Although portfolio diversification is the typical strategy followed by risk-averse investors, extreme portfolios that allocate all funds to a single asset/state of the world are common too. Such asset-demand behavior is compatible with risk-averse subjective expected utility maximization under beliefs that assign a strictly positive probability to every state. We show that whenever finitely many extreme asset demands are rationalizable in this way under such beliefs, they are simultaneously rationalizable under the same beliefs by: (i) constant absolute risk aversion; decreasing absolute risk aversion/increasing relative risk aversion (DARA/IRRA); risk-neutral; and ris-kseeking utility indices at all wealth levels; (ii) a distinct class of DARA/IRRA utility indices at some strictly positive fixed initial wealth; and (iii) decreasing relative risk aversion utility indices under bounded wealth. We also show that, in such situations, the observable data allow for sharp bounds to be given for the relevant parameters in each of the above classes of risk-averse preferences. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2304.08059&r=mac |