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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Andrej Sokol; Michael Kumhof; Marco Pinchetti; Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul |
| Abstract: | We study the consequences for business cycles and welfare of introducing an interest-bearing retail CBDC, competing with bank deposits as medium of exchange, into an estimated 2-country DSGE environment. According to our estimates, financial shocks account for around half of the variance of aggregate demand and inflation, and for the bulk of the variance of financial variables. CBDC issuance of 30% of GDP increases output and welfare by around 6% and 2%, respectively. An aggressive Taylor rule for the interest rate on reserves achieves welfare gains of 0.57% of steady state consumption, an optimized CBDC interest rate rule that responds to a credit gap achieves additional welfare gains of 0.44%, and further gains of 0.57% if accompanied by automatic fiscal stabilizers. A CBDC quantity rule, a response to an inflation gap, CBDC as generalized retail access to reserves, and especially a cash-like zero-interest CBDC, yield significantly smaller gains. CBDC policies can substantially reduce the volatilities of domestic and cross- border banking flows and of the exchange rate. Optimal policy requires a steady state quantity of CBDC of around 40% of annual GDP. |
| Keywords: | central bank digital currencies, monetary policy, bank deposits, bank loans, monetary frictions, money demand, money supply, credit creation |
| JEL: | E41 E42 E43 E44 E52 E58 F41 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1086&r=mac |
| By: | Michael Kumhof; Marco Pinchetti; Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul; Andrej Sokol |
| Abstract: | We study the consequences for business cycles and welfare of introducing an interest-bearing retail CBDC, competing with bank deposits as medium of exchange, into an estimated 2-country DSGE environment. According to our estimates, financial shocks account for around half of the variance of aggregate demand and inflation, and for the bulk of the variance of financial variables. CBDC issuance of 30% of GDP increases output and welfare by around 6% and 2%, respectively. An aggressive Taylor rule for the interest rate on reserves achieves welfare gains of 0.57% of steady state consumption, an optimized CBDC interest rate rule that responds to a credit gap achieves additional welfare gains of 0.44%, and further gains of 0.57% if accompanied by automatic fiscal stabilizers. A CBDC quantity rule, a response to an inflation gap, CBDC as generalized retail access to reserves, and especially a cash-like zero-interest CBDC, yield significantly smaller gains. CBDC policies can substantially reduce the volatilities of domestic and cross- border banking flows and of the exchange rate. Optimal policy requires a steady state quantity of CBDC of around 40% of annual GDP. |
| Keywords: | Central bank digital currencies; Monetary policy; Bank deposits; Bank loans; Monetary frictions; Money demand; Money supply; Credit creation |
| JEL: | E41 E42 E43 E44 E52 E58 F41 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:205&r=mac |
| By: | Michael Irwin |
| Abstract: | Using data from patents, citations, inter-sectoral sales and customs, we examine the international diffusion of technology through imports of sectoral knowledge and production inputs. We construct measures of the flow of technology embodied in imports. These measures are weighted by inter-sectoral knowledge and production input-output linkages that capture the relevance of this technology for generating new innovations in different sectors in importing countries. We develop an instrumental variable strategy to identify the causal effects of technology embodied in imports on innovation and diffusion outcomes. For sectors in importing countries, increases in both knowledge- and production-weighted embodied technology imports lead to technology diffusion (measured using backward citations in new patent applications) and increases in the rate of new innovations (measured using the forward citations those patents receive). Effects are substantially larger for knowledge-weighted imports of embodied technology, which also lead to improvements in the average quality of new innovations. |
| Keywords: | Business fluctuations and cycles; Credit and credit aggregates; Economic models; Fiscal policy; Labour markets |
| JEL: | E24 E32 E44 E62 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:23-22&r=mac |
| By: | Lukas Hack; Klodiana Istrefi; Matthias Meier |
| Abstract: | We propose a novel identification design to estimate the causal effects of systematic monetary policy on the propagation of macroeconomic shocks. The design combines (i) a time-varying measure of systematic monetary policy based on the historical composition of hawks and doves in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) with (ii) an instrument that leverages the mechanical FOMC rotation of voting rights. We apply our design to study the effects of government spending shocks. We find fiscal multipliers between two and three when the FOMC is dovish and below zero when it is hawkish. Narrative evidence from historical FOMC records corroborates our findings |
| Keywords: | Systematic monetary policy, FOMC, rotation, government spending |
| JEL: | E32 E52 E62 E63 H56 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2023_408&r=mac |
| By: | Andreas Gulyas; Matthias Meier; Mykola Ryzhenkov |
| Abstract: | This paper uses Austrian social security records to analyze the effects of ECB monetary policy on the labor market. Our focus is on the role of worker and firm wage components, defined by an Abowd et al. (1999) wage regression. Our findings show that monetary tightening causes the largest employment losses for low-paid workers who are employed in high-paying firms before the tightening. Monetary tightening further causes a reallocation of workers to lower-paying firms. In particular low-paid workers who were originally employed by low-paying firms are prone to falling down the firm wage ladder. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, worker reallocation, heterogeneity, AKM |
| JEL: | E24 E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2023_407&r=mac |
| By: | Oyadeyi, Olajide |
| Abstract: | The onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, the war on Ukraine, and their effects on global output and supply chain have led to inflationary pressures globally. The Covid-19 pandemic has continued to disrupt the global supply chain, especially in China, while the war between Russia and Ukraine has affected commodity and food prices, leading to inflation rising to levels not seen globally since the global financial crisis in 2008. Inflation has been a pressing issue for policymakers globally. In November 2022, US inflation climbed down to 7.1% from a peak of 9.1% in June, the highest ever in many decades. Even though this figure represents a drop of 8.5% from its October inflation report of 7.7%, we would need to stretch back to 1981 for us to get a period when inflation was that high in the US, averaging 10% that year. As a result of this, how has Nigeria been able to address the issues of global inflation fuelled by the ongoing war in Ukraine? What are some policy considerations that are germane to tackle the current rising prices? These and other questions would be addressed in the article. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Interest Rates |
| JEL: | E30 E31 E42 E43 E52 E58 E62 |
| Date: | 2022–12–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116802&r=mac |
| By: | Gan-Ochir Doojav (Bank of Mongolia); Munkhbayar Gantumur (Bank of Mongolia) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops an estimated New Keynesian model of a commodity-exporting economy for an integrated policy framework, integrating the full range of policies used in practice and featuring a range of nominal and real rigidities, macro-financial linkages, and transmission channels of external shocks. We jointly examine the optimal conduct of conventional and unconventional monetary policies, macroprudential policy, foreign exchange intervention, capital flow management, and fiscal policy based on the model. The policy analysis framework is applied empirically to Mongolia, a small open, and developing economy highly dependent on imports and commodity exports. We find that an eclectic policy mix improves policy tradeoffs, and a lack of cooperation among policy authorities may result in conflicting policies, hence suboptimal results for overall economic stability. Our optimal policy analysis shows that policy mix adjustments should differ depending on the type of shocks and the policy objectives. The results suggest that the policy analysis framework can help policymakers choose their policy mix adjustments to deal with external shocks in an integrated and optimal way. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; Macroprudential policy; Foreign exchange intervention; Fiscal policy; Capital flow management; Optimal policy mix; Open economy macroeconomics; External shocks; Bayesian analysis |
| JEL: | C11 C32 E32 E43 E52 F41 |
| Date: | 2023–04–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp05-2023&r=mac |
| By: | Thomas Hasenzagl (University of Minnesota and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Filippo Pellegrino (Imperial College London); Lucrezia Reichlin (London Business School, Now-Casting Economics, and CEPR); Giovanni Ricco (École Polytechnique, University of Warwick, OFCE-Sciences Po and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We propose two specifications of a real-time mixed-frequency semi-structural time series model for evaluating the output potential, output gap, Phillips curve, and Okun’s law for the US. The baseline model uses minimal theory-based multivariate identification restrictions to inform trend-cycle decomposition, while the alternative model adds the CBO’s output gap measure as an observed variable. The latter model results in a smoother output potential and lower cyclical correlation between inflation and real variables but performs worse in forecasting beyond the short term. This methodology allows for the assessment and real-time monitoring of official trend and gap estimates. |
| Keywords: | real-time forecasting, output gap, Phillips curve, semi-structural models, Bayesian estimation |
| JEL: | C11 C32 C53 E31 E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2022–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crs:wpaper:2023-06&r=mac |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Sweden experienced a strong post-pandemic rebound in 2021–22 but is potentially heading into a recession. Global headwinds started to steadily put breaks on consumption and business confidence in the third quarter of 2022, as external demand weakened, and higher inflation and interest rates are increasing the burden on households and firms. A slightly negative GDP growth and a moderate decline in inflation are expected in 2023. The recovery will be gradual over the medium term, and inflation is expected to decelerate towards its 2 percent target, but the uncertainty surrounding this outlook is high. |
| Date: | 2023–03–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/111&r=mac |
| By: | McKay, Alisdair; Reis, Ricardo |
| Abstract: | Should the generosity of unemployment benefits and the progressivity of income taxes depend on the presence of business cycles? This paper proposes a tractable model where there is a role for social insurance against uninsurable shocks to income and unemployment, as well as business cycles that are inefficient due to the presence of matching frictions and nominal rigidities. We derive an augmented Baily-Chetty formula showing that the optimal generosity of the social insurance system depends on a macroeconomic stabilization term. This term pushes for an increase in generosity when the level of economic activity is more responsive to social programmes in recessions than in booms. A calibration to the US economy shows that taking concerns for macroeconomic stabilization into account substantially raises the optimal unemployment insurance replacement rate but has a negligible impact on the optimal progressivity of the income tax. More generally, the role of social insurance programmes as automatic stabilizers affects their optimal design. |
| Keywords: | counter-cyclical fiscal policy; redistribution; disortionary taxes |
| JEL: | E62 H21 H30 |
| Date: | 2021–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:108180&r=mac |
| By: | Juraj Falath (National Bank of Slovakia); Alena Kissova (National Bank of Slovakia); Adriana Lojschova (National Bank of Slovakia) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of the TLTRO III operations introduced by the European Central Bank in 2020 on the bank lending activity of Slovak banks, using unique bank-level data on the program. We deploy a difference-in-difference approach on monthly data covering the time period from January 2012 o December 2021with 34 banks included in the analysis. Our findings suggest that the credit easing measures had a positive effect on bank lending to non- inancial corporations and negative effect on lending rates, even when controlling for possible confounding factors. We also explore other possible uses of TLTRO III liquidity by banks besides increased lending. Although inconclusive, there is some evidence of banks improving their profitability via holding cheap liquidity in their deposit accounts and to a lesser extent via increasing their holdings of debt securities. |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E51 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svk:wpaper:1093&r=mac |
| By: | Bils, Mark (University of Rochester); Kudlyak, Marianna (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco); Lins, Paulo (University of Rochester) |
| Abstract: | Typical measures of wages, such as average hourly earnings, fail to capture cyclicality in the effective cost of labor in the presence of (i) cyclical fluctuations in the quality of worker-firm matches, or (ii) wages being smoothed within employment matches. To address both concerns, we estimate cyclicality in labor's user cost exploiting the long-run wage in a match to control for match quality. Using NLSY data for 1980 to 2019, we identify three channels by which hiring in a recession affects user cost: It lowers the new-hire wage; it lowers wages going forward in the match; but it also results in higher subsequent separations. All totaled, we find that labor's user cost is highly procyclical, increasing by more than 4% for a 1 pp decline in the unemployment rate. For large recessions, like the Great Recession, that implies a decline in the price of labor of about 15%. |
| Keywords: | wages, cyclicality, wage rigidity |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J30 J41 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16024&r=mac |
| By: | Serdar Kabaca; Kerem Tuzcuoglu |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the contribution of several supply factors to US headline inflation since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. We identify six supply shocks using a structural VAR model: labor supply, labor productivity, global supply chain, oil price, price mark-up and wage mark-up shocks. Our shock identification relies mainly on sign restrictions. But for the global supply chain shock, we propose a new identification scheme combining sign, narrative and variance decomposition restrictions. Historical decomposition results suggest that global supply chain and oil price shocks are the biggest supply contributors to the US inflation during the pandemic. In contrast, labor shortages only mildly contribute to inflation, but their impact on output is larger in that period. Additionally, price and wage mark-up shocks start to significantly contribute to inflation only towards the middle of 2022. Finally, our analysis, which also allows the identification of monetary policy and aggregate demand shocks, suggests that demand and supply factors are almost equally responsible for the movements in the inflation rate during the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | Business fluctuations and cycles; Econometric and statistical methods; Inflation and prices |
| JEL: | C32 E32 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:23-19&r=mac |
| By: | Klaus Adam; Andrey Alexandrov; Henning Weber |
| Abstract: | Using a novel identification approach derived from sticky price theories with time or state-dependent adjustment frictions, we empirically identify the e¤ect of inflation on relative price distor- tions. Our approach can be directly applied to micro price data, does not rely on estimating the gap between actual and flexible prices, and only assumes stationarity of unobserved shocks. Us- ing U.K. CPI micro price data, we document that suboptimally high (or low) inflation is associated with distortions in relative prices that are highly statistically significant. At the aggregate level, fluctuations in inefficient price dispersion are sizable and covary positively with aggregate inflation. In contrast, overall price dispersion fails to covary with inflation because it is mainly driven by trends in the dispersion of flexible prices. |
| JEL: | E31 E58 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2023_406&r=mac |
| By: | Thepthida Sopraseuth; Eleni Iliopulos (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine the current state of the international macroeconomic literature, focusing specically on international spillovers and the international transmission of countryspeci c shocks. Using a general equilibrium framework, we analyze the standard two-country RBC model and its ability to replicate empirical evidence on international correlation of output, consumption, and international risk sharing. We then survey attempts in the literature to address the limitations of the model, including incorporating nominal rigidities and nancial frictions, as well as recent contributions bridging the gap between open-economy macroeconomics and international nance. These works have the potential to explain the international transmission of shocks among advanced countries by accounting for factors aecting international risk sharing. |
| Keywords: | international business cycles, cross-country co-movement, quantity puzzle |
| JEL: | E44 F41 F42 F44 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2023-03&r=mac |
| By: | Sinem Kilic Celik; M. Ayhan Kose; Franziska Ohnsorge; F. Ulrich Ruch |
| Abstract: | Potential growth—the rate of expansion an economy can sustain at full capacity and employment—is a critical driver of development progress. It is also a major input in the formulation of fiscal and monetary policies over the business cycle. This paper introduces the most comprehensive database to date, covering the nine most commonly used measures of potential growth for up to 173 countries over 1981-2021. Based on this database, the paper presents three findings. First, all measures of global potential growth show a steady and widespread decline over the past decade, with all the fundamental drivers of growth losing momentum over time. In 2011-21, potential growth was below its 2000-10 average in nearly all advanced economies and roughly 60 percent of emerging market and developing economies. Second, adverse events, such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, contributed to the decline. At the country-level also, national recessions lowered potential growth even five years after their onset. Third, the persistent impact of recessions on potential growth operated through weaker growth of investment, employment, and productivity. |
| Keywords: | production function, filters, growth expectations, developing economies |
| JEL: | E30 E32 E37 O20 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2023-20&r=mac |
| By: | Michl, Thomas R. (Department of Economics, Colgate University) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an alternative foundation to the standard quadratic loss function characterizing central bank inflation policy. The alternative treats high employment as a social benefit. In recognition of the inherent asymmetry of the output gap, two self-imposed constraints provide guardrails that rule out excess unemployment and opportunistic reflation. The loss function includes a novel reverse discounting mechanism that penalizes the bank for more sustained inflation gaps that could undermine confidence and reduce inflation expectations anchoring. Anchoring shapes the way the bank manages inflation expectations. In the absence of anchoring the shadow price of expectations is equal to the sacrifice ratio but in the presence of anchoring the shadow price drops to zero reflecting the policy flexibility anchoring affords the central bank. The central bank’s optimal policy differs dramatically from the standard Taylor Rule recommendation in choosing policy plans with higher employment, in its willingness to overshoot inflation targets, and in avoiding excess unemployment, all while observing the discipline needed for successful inflation targeting. |
| JEL: | E31 |
| Date: | 2023–04–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgt:wpaper:2023-01&r=mac |
| By: | Willi Semmler (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research, USA and Bielefeld University, Germany); Fabio Della Rossa (Department of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Polytechnic of Milan, Milan, Italy); Giuseppe Orlando (Department of Mathematics, University of Bari, Italy and HSE University, Saint Petersburg, Russia); Gabriel R. Padro Rosario (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research, USA); Levent Kockesen (Department of Economics, Ko¸c University, Istanbul, Turkey and Nazarbayev University, Astana, Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate Brunnermeir’s Theory of Resilience in the context of complex system dynamics where there, however, can be local and global resilience, vulnerability, loss of resilience, cycles, disruptive contractions, and persistent traps. In the paper, we refer to three-time scales. First, for shorter time scales, for the short-run market dynamics, we evaluate resilience in the context of complex market dynamics that have been studied in the history of economic theory for long. Second, with respect to a business cycle medium-term dynamics, we analytically study an endogenous cycle model, built upon Semmler and Sieveking (1993) and Semmler and Kockesen (2017), and discuss the issue of loss of stability, corridor stability, multiple attractors, and trapping dynamics also in the light of complex dynamics. In a financial-real business cycle model, we demonstrate forces that indeed can exhibit multiple dynamic features such as local resilience, known as corridor-stability, but also other dynamic phenomena. Corridor stability pertains to small shocks with no lasting effects, but large enough shocks can lead to persistent cycles and/or contractions. We refer to the Hopf-and-Bautin-Bifurcation theorems, to establish corridor stability, and local resilience, for the interaction of real and financial variables where the trajectories can be stable or unstable in the vicinity of the equilibrium. Thus they can switch dynamic behaviour for small or large shocks. Similar complex dynamic phenomena can be obtained from Kaleckian-Kaldorian nonlinear real business cycle models, in particular when time delays are allowed for. Third, whereas the analytical study of the dynamics is undertaken for the above second-time scale, for the longer time scale we study, in the context of multiple equilibria models, the issue of thresholds, tipping points and disruptive contractions, and persistence of traps. |
| Keywords: | Resilience, complex dynamic models, regime change model, limit cycles, disruptive contractions |
| JEL: | C32 E32 E44 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:2305&r=mac |
| By: | Sarah Miller; Patrick Sabourin |
| Abstract: | Inflation expectations play a vital role in determining inflation. Central bankers need to understand their intricacies and the information they can reveal. We look at the consistency of consumers’ answers to questions on inflation expectations in the Bank of Canada’s Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. We analyze factors that may explain consistencies among individuals and overall. We also compare the inflation forecasts of consumers with consistent responses with those of professional forecasters and consumers with varying responses. |
| Keywords: | Central bank research; Inflation and prices |
| JEL: | E31 D84 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:23-7&r=mac |
| By: | Piergiorgio Alessandri (Bank of Italy); Haroon Mumtaz (Queen Mary University of London) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of climate volatility on economic growth exploiting data on 133 countries between 1960 and 2005. We show that the conditional (extante) volatility of annual temperatures increased steadily over time, rendering climate conditions less predictable across countries, with important implications for growth. Controlling for concomitant changes in temperatures, a +1oC increase in temperature volatility causes on average a 0.9 per cent decline in GDP growth and a 1.3 per cent increase in the volatility of GDP. Unlike changes in average temperatures, changes in temperature volatility affect both rich and poor countries. |
| Keywords: | temperature volatility; economic growth; panel VAR |
| JEL: | C32 E32 F34 |
| Date: | 2021–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:928&r=mac |
| By: | Viral V. Acharya; Timothy Johnson; Suresh Sundaresan; Steven Zheng |
| Abstract: | We study an economy subject to recurrent disasters when agents have imprecise information about the frequency and duration of the disasters. Uncertainty about the persistence of states can lead to seemingly pessimistic behavior in bad times and optimistic behavior in good times. In a disaster, uncertainty about duration acts as an amplification mechanism. Agents alter their optimal investment and consumption more intensely relative to the full-information benchmark, and the welfare cost of parameter uncertainty can be extreme. However, in advance of a disaster, uncertainty about the arrival rate can be welfare-increasing and agents exhibit diminished preparedness: they optimally invest less in mitigation than under full information and pay less for insurance against the next disaster. |
| JEL: | D6 D8 E21 E32 G10 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31067&r=mac |
| By: | Carola Conces Binder; Rodrigo Sekkel |
| Abstract: | Central banks’ forecasts are important monetary policy inputs and tools for central bank communication. We survey the literature on forecasting at the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Canada, focusing especially on recent developments. After describing these central banks’ forecasting frameworks, we discuss the literature on central bank forecast evaluation and new tests of unbiasedness and efficiency. We also discuss evidence of central banks’ informational advantage over private sector forecasters—which appears to have weakened over time—and how central bank forecasts may affect private sector expectations even in the absence of an informational advantage. We discuss how the Great Recession led central banks to evaluate their forecasting frameworks and how the COVID-19 pandemic has further challenged central bank forecasting. Finally, we consider directions for future research. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy |
| JEL: | E47 E58 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:23-18&r=mac |
| By: | Maher, Ronan |
| Abstract: | This essay is a simplistic approach to the stoppage of inflation. This is one take, and many might disagree with the solutions or opinions represented in this essay. This is here to provide another view of this problem and present a few ideas on how to solve this. The essay is about inflation, solutions to inflation, and some examples of inflation. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; Milton Friedman; Cure to Inflation |
| JEL: | E31 E4 |
| Date: | 2022–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116772&r=mac |
| By: | Sharaf, Mesbah Fathy; Shahen, Abdelhalem Mahmoud |
| Abstract: | This study aims to examine the symmetric and asymmetric impact of external debt on inflation in Sudan from 1970 to 2020 within a multivariate framework by including money supply and the nominal effective exchange rate as additional inflation determinants. We utilize an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the symmetric impact of external debt on inflation, while the asymmetric impact is examined using a nonlinear Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The existence of a long-run relationship between inflation and external debt is tested using the bounds-testing approach to cointegration, and a vector error-correction model is estimated to determine the short parameters of equilibrium dynamics. The linear ARDL model results show that external debt has no statistically significant impact on inflation in the long run. On the contrary, the results of the NARDL model show that positive and negative external debt shocks statistically affect inflation in the long run. The estimated long-run elasticity coefficients of both the linear and nonlinear ARDL models reveal that the domestic money supply has a statistically significant positive impact on inflation. In contrast, the nominal effective exchange rate has a statistically significant negative impact on inflation. The reliance on symmetric analysis may not be sufficient to uncover the existence of a linkage between external debt and inflation. Proper external debt management is crucial to control inflation rates in Sudan. |
| Keywords: | External Debt; Exchange rate; Inflation; Money supply; NARDL; Sudan |
| JEL: | E31 E52 F34 O24 |
| Date: | 2023–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116856&r=mac |
| By: | Sinem Kilic Celik; M. Ayhan Kose; Franziska Ohnsorge |
| Abstract: | Potential output growth around the world slowed over the past two decades. This slowdown is expected to continue in the remainder of the 2020s: global potential growth is projected to average 2.2 percent per year in 2022-30, 0.4 percentage point below its 2011-21 average. Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) will face an even steeper slowdown, of about 1.0 percentage point to 4.0 percent per year on average during 2022-30. The slowdown will be widespread, affecting most EMDEs and countries accounting for 70 percent of global GDP. Global potential growth over the remainder of this decade could be even slower than projected in the baseline scenario—by another 0.2-0.9 percentage point a year—if investment growth, improvements in health and education outcomes, or developments in labor markets disappoint, or if adverse events materialize. A menu of policy options is available to help reverse the trend of weakening economic growth, including policies to enhance physical and human capital accumulation; to encourage labor force participation by women and older adults; to improve the efficiency of public spending; and to mitigate and adapt to climate change, including infrastructure investment to facilitate the green transition. |
| Keywords: | production function, growth expectations, emerging markets, developing economies |
| JEL: | E30 E32 E37 O20 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2023-19&r=mac |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Syahda Sabrina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Nauli A. Desdiani (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Teuku Riefky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Amalia Cesarina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Meila Husna (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | The continuation of supply chain disruption and energy shortage as the impact of Russia and Ukraine’s conflict in various parts of the world have put pressures on the global inflation and the economic recovery process. Domestically, it has started to have impact as the inflation rate is also expected to accelerate this month like its usual seasonal trend during Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr celebrations. However, the trade balance emerged as one of the windfalls from the prolonged increasing trend of commodity prices that could maintain Rupiah stability and economic growth from export channel, also contribute to the state’s revenue. Considering the current condition, we view BI should hold its policy rate at 3.50% this month. In addition, BI should maintain its pro-stability monetary stance and progrowth macroprudential policy during the current uncertain times. |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics — interest rate |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:gomeet:202204&r=mac |
| By: | Alba Carlos; Cuadra Gabriel; Ibarra Raúl |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effects of the extraordinary measures implemented by the Bank of Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic on financial conditions. For this purpose, we estimate a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model for the period 2001-2021. Based on this model, we construct a financial conditions index, estimate the response of this indicator and its components from a shock to the outstanding amount of these measures, and conduct a counterfactual exercise to further analyze the effect of the aforementioned measures. The results indicate that the extraordinary measures seem to have contributed to improve financial conditions. In particular, we find that if these measures had not been implemented, the sovereign risk premium, the 10-year government bond yield, the slope of the yield curve, the long and short-term yield spreads between Mexico and USA, the exchange rate and its volatility would have been higher. In turn, the Mexican stock market index would have been lower. |
| Keywords: | Financial Conditions;Central Bank Policies;Factor-Augmented VAR |
| JEL: | C32 E58 G01 E44 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2023-03&r=mac |
| By: | Aydin Yakut, Dilan (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | Larger and more sustained energy and commodity price shocks as a result of the war in Ukraine are contributing to higher headline inflation in the euro area (EA), when compared with the US. Underneath the headline numbers, trend inflation – something monetary policy-makers pay close attention to in order to get a sense of persistence in inflation dynamics – is still lower in the EA, mainly due to lower services inflation. However, this gap in trend inflation is gradually closing and even slightly reversed recently when owneroccupied housing services costs are excluded from US inflation. |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:ecolet:2/el/23&r=mac |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Syahda Sabrina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Nauli A. Desdiani (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Teuku Riefky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Amalia Cesarina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Meila Husna (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Domestic economic activity continues to improve, in line with improving public confidence as captured by rising inflation as well as the CCI and PMI. However, the rise in Covid-19 new cases in several countries due to the novel Omicron variant that appears to be spreading faster poses a very high global risk, which could triggering a new wave. The retightening of government-imposed social restriction and lockdown are becoming inevitable, and these jeopardize any recovery that global supply chains have made around the world. Global market risks have also risen in the last month as a result of earlier monetary policy tightening due to the trend of rising inflation. Government’s effort to prevent massive spike in Omicron cases is critical in order to maintain the economic recovery momentum. Meanwhile, BI needs to maintain Rupiah amid economic recovery by holding the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% this month. |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics — interest rate |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:gomeet:202112&r=mac |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Sri Lanka fell into an unprecedented crisis as a result of a series of shocks and policy missteps. Debt rose to unsustainable levels resulting from large fiscal imbalances, and access to international capital markets was lost soon after large tax cuts and the onset of the COVID-19. Reserves were depleted, leading to a sharp exchange rate depreciation, and debt service was suspended in the spring of 2022. Sizable monetary financing to meet fiscal obligations contributed to a surge in inflation. Sri Lanka’s economy is in deep recession and financial stability is at risk given the tight financialsovereign nexus. People are suffering from food and energy shortages, exacerbating deep-rooted public dissatisfaction and creating a vulnerable political and social environment. |
| Date: | 2023–03–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/116&r=mac |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Syahda Sabrina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Nauli A. Desdiani (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Teuku Riefky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Amalia Cesarina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Meila Husna (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | After the Delta outbreak, Indonesia is currently facing the Omicron wave. As of 7th February, daily new cases were reported at more than 27, 000 cases (7-day moving average) and many predicted it will peak at the end of February 2022. Despite rising cases, several economic indicators keep progressing, indicating recovery still remains. Similar to GDP that recorded an immense growth of 5.02% (y.o.y) in Q4-2021, yearly inflation rate also drew the same pattern with a notable pick-up of 2.18% (y.o.y) in January 2022 from 1.84% (y.o.y) in December 2022. However, the recent surge of Omicron cases is expected to slow, or even pause, the economic recovery. From the external side, inflationary pressure that continues to linger around several markets forces several central banks to raise the interest rate. As a result, contractions in domestic market are detected in the short-term, indicated by notable amount of outflow and weaker trend of Rupiah. Given these circumstances, BI should hold its policy rate at 3.50% this month while observing domestic condition and closely watching the fluctuations in the global market. |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics — interest rate |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:gomeet:202202&r=mac |
| By: | Lin Chen; Stephanie Houle |
| Abstract: | We generate high-frequency and up-to-date indicators to monitor news media coverage of supply (raw, intermediate and final goods) and labour shortages in Canada. We use natural language processing to construct two news-based indicators and time-varying topic narratives to track Canadian media coverage of these shortages from 2000 to 2022. This makes our indicators an insightful alternative monitoring tool for policy. Notably, our indicators track well with monthly price indexes and measures from the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey, and they are highly correlated with commonly tracked indicators of supply constraint. Moreover, the news-based indicators reflect the attention of the public on pressing issues. |
| Keywords: | Coronavirus disease (COVID-19); Econometric and statistical methods; Monetary policy and uncertainty; Recent economic and financial developments |
| JEL: | C55 C82 E37 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:23-8&r=mac |
| By: | Santiago Camara (Northwestern University/Red-NIE); Sebastian Ramirez Venegas (Comisión para el Mercado Financiero) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the transmission of US monetary policy shocks into Emerging Markets emphasizing the role of investment and financial heterogeneity. First, we use a panel SVAR model to show that a US interest tightening leads to a persistent recession in Emerging Markets driven by a sharp reduction in aggregate investment. Second, we study the role of firms’ financial heterogeneity in the transmission of US interest rate shocks by exploiting detailed balance sheet dataset from Chile. We find that more indebted firms experience greater drops in investment in response to a US tightening shock than less indebted firms. This result is at odds with recent evidence from US firms, even when using the same identification strategy and econometric methods. Third, we rationalize this finding using a stylized model of heterogeneous firms subject to a tightening leverage constraint. Finally, we present evidence in support of this hypothesis as well as robustness checks to our main results. Overall, our results suggests that the transmission channel of US monetary policy shocks within and outside the US differ, a result novel to the literature. |
| Keywords: | Firm dynamics, Firm heterogeneity, Financial frictions, balance sheet effects, US interest rates, Emerging Markets |
| JEL: | F1 F4 G32 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:230&r=mac |
| By: | B M, Lithin; Chakraborty, Suman; Iyer, Vishwanathan; M N, Nikhil; Ledwani, Sanket |
| Abstract: | Does Indian sovereign yield volatility reflect economic fundamentals, or whether it is a self-generated force flowing through markets with little connection to such fundamentals? To answer the question, this research explores the volatility dynamics and measures the persistence of shocks to the sovereign bond yield volatility in India from 1 January 2016, to 18 May 2022, using a family of GARCH models. The empirical results indicate the high volatility persistence across the maturity spectrum in the sample period. However, upon decomposing the markets into bull and bear phases, our results support the existence of weak volatility persistence and rapid mean reversion in the bear market. This shows that the economic response policies implemented by the government during the pandemic, including fiscal measures, have a restraining effect on sovereign yield volatility. For a positive γ, the results suggest the possibility of a “leverage effect” that is markedly different from that frequently seen in stock markets. Results further indicate that the fluctuations in Indian sovereign yields cannot be dissociated from inflation and money market volatility. Our findings herein provide valuable information and implications for policymakers and financial investors worldwide. |
| Keywords: | sovereign bond yield; volatility; leverage; symmetric GARCH; COVID-19; mean reversion |
| JEL: | C22 C52 E43 E44 G10 G17 |
| Date: | 2022–08–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116866&r=mac |
| By: | Andrianady, Josué R.; CAMARA, Alyda E.; RANDRIANANTENAINA, Kantotiana S. |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the role of public investment in the process of economic growth, in the context of Madagascar’s economy, using the vector autoregressive approach (VAR). The model also includes monetary supply and exportation. The result show that public investment has positive effect on growth in short term especially in the second quarter but the effect slowly goes down in the next quarter. This is due to the impact of investment on monetary supply which can lead to potential rise of prices. The effect of investment on growth reaches his highest in the fifth quarter after that its return to his stationary state. |
| Keywords: | Madagascar, VAR, Public investment, money, exportation, GDP |
| JEL: | A1 E22 F43 H54 R42 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116863&r=mac |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Syahda Sabrina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Nauli A. Desdiani (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Teuku Riefky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Amalia Cesarina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Meila Husna (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | The higher consumption due to the fasting month of Ramadhan and ahead of Eid-al-Fitr celebration coupled with the soaring commodity prices during the inflationary pressures have contributed to high headline inflation in April, with the highest contribution coming from volatile and food ingredients components. In contrast, energy prices were still manageable as the GoI continued to implement the energy subsidy and compensation as well as social protection, thus, people’s purchasing power maintained and core inflation remained relatively low. On domestic conditions, Indonesia continued to record positive growth in Q1-2022, supported by persistent domestic consumption, recovery in investment, and higher exports due to soaring commodity prices. |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics — interest rate |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:gomeet:202205&r=mac |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Syahda Sabrina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Nauli A. Desdiani (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Teuku Riefky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Amalia Cesarina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Meila Husna (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Indonesia's GDP rose by 7.07% (y.o.y) in the second quarter and after exactly one year, we are now officially out of economic recession that started in Q2-2020. Despite the better-than-expected growth of the economy, the pace of recovery will be limited due to the emergence of Delta variant that has a high transmission rate and causes mobility restrictions to be imposed since last July. Hence, economic indicators, such as Consumer’s Confidence Index (CCI), and Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) continued to plunge. From external conditions, the improvement of the U.S. economy resulted in investors moving their capital from emerging markets which caused Rupiah to depreciate against the USD. Therefore, amidst these uncertain circumstances, we see that BI needs to hold its policy rate at 3.50% while maintaining the exchange rate and financial stability. |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics — interest rate |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:gomeet:202108&r=mac |
| By: | Laura Felber; Simon Beyeler |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we assess the value of high-frequency payments data for nowcasting economic activity. Focusing on Switzerland, we predict real GDP based on an unprecedented 'complete' set of transaction payments data: a combination of real-time gross settlement payment system data as well as debit and credit card data. Following a strongly data-driven machine learning approach, we find payments data to bear an accurate and timely signal about economic activity. When we assess the performance of the models by the initially published GDP numbers (pseudo real-time evaluation), we find a state-dependent value of the data: the payment models slightly outperform the benchmark models in times of crisis but are clearly inferior in 'normal' times. However, when we assess the performance of the models by revised and more final GDP numbers, we find payments data to be unconditionally valuable: the payment models outperform the benchmark models by up to 11% in times of crisis and by up to 12% in 'normal' times. We thus conclude that models based on payments data should become an integral part of policymakers' decision-making. |
| Keywords: | Nowcasting, GDP, machine learning, payments data, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | C52 C53 C55 E37 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2023-01&r=mac |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Cameroon, a fragile and conflict affected state, proved resilient to the COVID- 19 shock but is now facing increased challenges in an uncertain global environment. The recovery, which was supported by higher oil prices and non-oil production in 2021, continued in 2022, against the backdrop of Russia’s war in Ukraine, inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, and tight global financial conditions. Cameroon has successfully completed two reviews since the approval in July 2021 of the three-year arrangements under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for SDR 483 million (about US$689.5 million, or 175 percent of quota). Completion of the third review will allow the total disbursement of SDR 55.2 million (about US$73.3 million). |
| Date: | 2023–03–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/114&r=mac |
| By: | Carola Frydman; Chenzi Xu |
| Abstract: | This paper surveys the recent empirical literature on historical banking crises, defined as events taking place before 1980. Advances in data collection and identification have provided new insights into the causes and consequences of crises both immediately and over the long run. We highlight three overarching threads that emerge from the literature: first, leverage in the financial system is a systematic precursor to crises; second, crises have negative effects on the real economy; and third, government interventions can ameliorate these effects. Contrasting historical episodes reveals that the process of crisis formation and evolution does vary significantly across time and space. Thus, we also highlight specific institutions, regulations and historical contexts that give rise to these divergent experiences. We conclude by identifying important gaps in the literature and discussing avenues for future research. |
| JEL: | E44 E58 G01 G21 N10 N20 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31092&r=mac |
| By: | Ezra Oberfield |
| Abstract: | Compared to a half-century ago, inequality in the United states has risen and measured productivity growth has fallen. Concerns about rising inequality have been exacerbated by the observation that prices of goods consumed by the poor have risen faster than prices of goods consumed by the rich. This paper presents an example of an economy that is consistent with these facts but in which the facts can be misleading about improvements in welfare. The two key ingredients are non-homothetic preferences and productivity improvements directed toward goods with larger market size. The model admits balanced growth despite the structural change induced by non-homothetic preferences. Along a BGP in which the distribution of after-tax income is stable, measured inflation among goods consumed by the bottom half of earners is perpetually higher than among goods consumed by the top half, but welfare improves at the same rate for all households. Across BGPs in which the only difference in primitives is the progressivity of the tax schedule, the BGP with a more unequal distribution of after-tax income exhibits lower measured growth of output and productivity. Nevertheless, welfare improves at the same rate along both BGPs. At the root of the deviation between productivity growth and welfare improvements is the fact that the value of cost reductions for a good are transitory if income effects eventually shrink the good's expenditure share. Standard measures of inflation capture the benefits of cost reductions among goods that are consumed contemporaneously, but only partly determine the evolution of price levels relevant for a household, as they do not capture the benefits from cost reductions that occur before the household shifts towards a good. |
| JEL: | D63 E01 O40 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31096&r=mac |
| By: | Mukherjee, Sacchidananda (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) |
| Abstract: | By comparing comparable revenue streams of pre- and post-GST periods, in this paper we assess the revenue performance of GST in India for the period 2012-13 to 2022-23. Sustaining revenue streams of the Union and State governments (in terms of percentage share in nominal Gross Domestic Product or GDP) between the pre- and a post-GST period is important for sustainable Public Finance Management. We observe that post-GST tax buoyancy in the GST regime has improved for the Union government as well as in overall GST collection. However, average tax buoyancy of State portion of GST has not improved yet. GST-to-GDP ratio of the Union as well as state governments not yet improved during post-GST period as compared to equivalent share of respective revenue streams in GDP during the pre-GST period. Based on available information, we estimate C-efficiency ratio (or collection efficiency), Effective Tax Rates, Compliance Gap and Policy Gap of GST for the period Q2:2017-18 to Q3:2022-23. We find that average C-efficiency of GST is 0.54 (or 54 %) which is in line with available evidences from developing Asian countries. Average ETR has gone up from 10.91 per cent in 2020-21 to 12.21 per cent in 2021-22 and 12.56 per cent upto Q3:2022-23 of 2022-23. The share of policy gap in C-efficiency is higher than compliance gap which is in line with available evidences from EU and OECD countries. |
| Keywords: | Revenue performance assessment ; Goods and Services Tax (GST) ; C-efficiency ; Compliance Gap ; Policy Gap ; Effective Tax Rate (ETR) ; India |
| JEL: | H20 E62 H26 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:npf:wpaper:23/392&r=mac |
| By: | Sacha Dray; Camille Landais; Stefanie Stantcheva |
| Abstract: | We study the history and geography of wealth accumulation in the US, using newly collected historical property tax records since the early 1800s. The US General Property Tax was a comprehensive tax on all types of property (real, personal, and financial), making it one of the first “wealth taxes.” Drawing on many historical records, we construct long-run, consistent, high-frequency wealth series at the county, state, and national levels. We first document the long-term evolution of household wealth in the US since the early 1800s. The US experienced extraordinary wealth accumulation after the Civil war and until the Great Depression. Second, we reveal that spatial inequality in the US has been large and highly persistent since the mid-1800s, driven mainly by Southern states, whose long-run divergence from the rest of the US predated the Civil War. Before the Civil war, enslaved people were assessed as personal property of the enslavers, representing almost one-half of total taxable property in Southern states. In addition to the moral and ethical issues involved, this system wrongly counted forced labor income as capital. The regional distribution of wealth and the effects of the Civil war appear very different if enslaved people are not included in the property measure. Third, we investigate the determinants of long-term wealth growth and capital accumulation. Among others, we find that counties with a higher share of enslaved property before the Civil War or higher levels of wealth inequality experienced lower subsequent long-run growth in property. |
| JEL: | E01 H20 H71 J15 N31 R12 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31080&r=mac |
| By: | Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo; Eurilton Araújo; Marcos Valli Jorge; Alexandre Kornelius; Leonardo Sousa Gomes Marinho |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the recent changes in the structure and estimation procedures of the SAMBA model, providing a complete description of the decision problems that each economic agent faces, the first order conditions that solve those problems, and the new techniques employed to estimate the model. This updated version of the model incorporates new features, such as involuntary unemployment, imported goods in the consumption bundle and a new identified vector auto-regressive process for the rest of the world. Reflecting these changes, the set of observables was expanded to include, for instance, participation rates in the labor market and an exogenous measure of output gap. In face of increased complexity and the large number of observables, the model was estimated using Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, allowing for a smaller sensitivity to the choice of priors. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:578&r=mac |
| By: | Ahmed, Mosab O. M.; Siddig, Khalid |
| Abstract: | - Average international prices of wheat, sorghum, rice, and sugar slightly increased in Q4 of 2022 compared to Q3. Import parity prices decreased during the same period because of the reduction in the freight cost to Port Sudan. - Annual inflation2 decreased from three-digit inflation (260.6 percent) in 2022Q1 to 92.6 percent in 2022Q4. - Quarterly changes in the price of non-volatile commodities (core inflation) 3 increased slightly in Q4 compared to Q3 of 2022 due to the increase in the housing rents, education, communication, and processed food prices. - Retail prices of food commodities were relatively stable during the last two quarters of 2022 com pared to the previous quarters of 2021 and 2022. - Nominal wholesale prices of grains in Khartoum State increased gradually from 2021Q2 to reach a peak in 2022Q3, before dropping in real and nominal terms in 2022Q4. - Although the national average of causal labor daily wage was increasing over time nominally (2021Q2–2022Q4), it was decreasing in real terms in 2022Q4. - Poorer urban and rural households (bottom 40 percent) were more affected by the changes in the prices of food and beverage commodities during 2022Q4 than richer households (top 60 percent). - Blue Nile, Darfur, and Eastern regions have the highest food insecure population classified in crisis or emergency. |
| Keywords: | REPUBLIC OF THE SUDAN, EAST AFRICA, AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA, AFRICA, prices, wheat, sorghum, rice, sugar, costs, inflation, commodities, housing, education, communication, wages, households, Blue Nile River, Darfur, |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:sssppn:6&r=mac |
| By: | Karl-Friedrich Israel (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Saarland University [Saarbrücken], UCO - Université Catholique de l'Ouest); Tim Florian Sepp (Universität Leipzig [Leipzig]); Nils Sonnenberg (Kiel Institute for the World Economy - Kiel Institute for the World Economy) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we investigate the impact of monetary policy on Japanese household incomes using the Family Income and Expenditure Survey. Our analysis focuses on the savings and income structure of households, and covers the period from Q1 2007 to Q2 2021. We find that households in the highest income brackets have a higher proportion of their savings invested in stocks, while middle and lower income households hold a greater share of their savings in bank deposits. Our hypothesis is that the Bank of Japan's monetary policies have boosted stock markets in particular, leading to disproportionate benefits for high-income households through capital gains and dividends. Using local projections, we first identify a positive, lasting cumulative effect of both conventional and unconventional monetary expansion on Japanese stock markets. We then examine how stock market performance impacts household incomes, and find that the effect is strongest for high-income households, decreases for middle-income households, and disappears for lower-income households. Our results suggest that monetary policy may have contributed to the persistent growth in income inequality in Japan, as measured by metrics such as the Gini coefficient and top-to-bottom income ratios. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, inequality, Japan, household income |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04024219&r=mac |
| By: | Jere Lehtomaa (Center of Economic Research, ETH Zurich, Zurichbergstrasse 18, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland); Clément Renoir (Center of Economic Research, ETH Zurich, Zurichbergstrasse 18, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | We present a new framework for estimating the long-run economic impacts of natural disasters. Our approach combines a disaster impact model with a general equilibrium model of the economy. We apply the methodology to study the effects of tropical cyclones in the United States, the Caribbean islands, Japan, China, and the Philippines. Our results show that the post-disaster recovery after a single shock can take several decades, with notable cumulative negative effects for frequently affected regions. For instance, cyclone activity reduces long-run aggregate consumption between 0.3 - 22 %, depending on the region. To evaluate the robustness of our results, we extend the model with two additional scenarios. First, we consider endogenous economic productivity gains from specialization. Second, we add a scenario where climate change alters the intensity and frequency of future disasters. The extensions slightly modify the numerical results but do not change the qualitative conclusions. |
| Keywords: | Tropical Cyclones, Climate Change, Growth, General Equilibrium |
| JEL: | C63 O11 Q54 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:23-382&r=mac |
| By: | Hong, Sung Wook (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Min, Seong-hwan (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the use and viability of unstructured data in forecasting the real economy in order to quickly understand the current situation and trends in the real economy in light of growing uncertainty both domestically and externally. To extract an index utilizing news data, the methodology of Thorsrud (2016) was used to develop two approaches. The first approach involves conducting topic analysis to extract topics and then employing sentiment analysis for each topic and calculating a simple index. The second approach involves creating a comprehensive score by combining the sentiment score and topic score to create a sort of composite index. To prove the utility of news data-based indices, the total population was set to match the number of topics that had the maximum number of word groups of all of the news data from the six segments of the manufacturing industry for the given period. That number was then reduced based on topics that met a certain standard, and the correlation between the extracted indices and real industry indices (such as an increase in the segment-based manufacturing index) was examined. In conclusion, the numbers calculated by analyzing the news for each segment of the manufacturing industry showed a similar trend to that of the real economy, showing that data extracted in a quantitative manner from unstructured data such as news articles prove to be significantly useful in understanding trends in the real economy. |
| Keywords: | real economy; forecasting; economic forecasting; news data; topic analysis; sentiment analysis; manufacturing; unstructured data; Korea |
| JEL: | C50 C53 C59 C82 C83 C89 E37 |
| Date: | 2021–05–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:2021_008&r=mac |
| By: | Rauh, C.; Valladares-Esteban, A. |
| Abstract: | In the US economy, Black men, on average, receive lower wages than White men, and the difference increases over the working life. The employment rate and the number of hours worked are also lower for Blacks, but the gap is nearly constant. Together these facts suggest that on-the-job human capital accumulation might explain the diverging wages. However, the wage gap and its evolution over the lifecycle cannot be explained by differences in accumulated experience or educational attainment for the cohort we analyze. Instead, the combination of experience and test scores measured at ages 17-22 accounts for the wage gap and its growth. We propose an on-the-job human capital accumulation model with heterogeneity in the initial human capital endowment and the lifelong ability to accumulate human capital, and endogenous labor supply at the extensive and intensive margins to explain the evolution of the Black-White wage gap over the lifecycle. We discipline the distribution of the ability to accumulate human capital using the power of test scores to predict earnings growth in the data. We find that if the pre-market distributions were the same for Blacks and Whites, the racial gap in hourly earnings would be closed by 84%, with the remaining gap opening throughout life due to higher labor supply amongst White men. That is, the unequal conditions with which men in the two groups enter the labor market are likely to be the key determinant of the differences over the lifecycle. |
| Keywords: | Employment gap, Inequality, Labor supply decision, Lifecycle, Racial gap, Wage gap |
| JEL: | J15 J24 J31 J64 |
| Date: | 2023–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2333&r=mac |
| By: | Konstantins Benkovskis (Latvijas Banka); Olegs Tkacevs (Latvijas Banka); Karlis Vilerts (Latvijas Banka) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the employment effect of the job retention scheme implemented during the Covid-19 pandemic. Using firm-level data from Latvia, we investigate whether a change in the number of employees in firms that received support from the job retention programme has been different from that of similar firms which did not receive such support, and whether these differences have disappeared over time. We find strong evidence that job retention scheme participants in Latvia were less likely to cut employment and that this effect persisted for several months after receiving support. Participation in the job retention scheme affected both the likelihood of a firm’s survival and the rate at which employees were laid off. Our results also suggest that the participation effect was not uniform across firms, with the effect being less pronounced in service sectors with a higher level of contact intensity and more pronounced in sectors with a higher proportion of highly skilled employees. |
| Keywords: | Job retention schemes, idle-time allowance, Covid-19, employment |
| JEL: | E24 H12 J62 J68 |
| Date: | 2023–04–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ltv:wpaper:202303&r=mac |
| By: | Andrew G. Biggs; Anqi Chen; Alicia H. Munnell |
| Abstract: | The question is how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the finances of vulnerable households, as well as those with more resources. On one hand, the shut-down of the economy resulted in salary cuts and job losses. On the other hand, many households received substantial government relief – through stimulus payments and unemployment benefits – and booming housing and equity markets accompanied the rapid economic rebound. Household consumption could also have gone up or down over this topsy turvy period. This brief, which is based on a recent paper, examines how COVID affected the balance sheets of U.S. households, as measured both by subjective self assessments and by objective measures of net wealth.1 It is only a first look at the issue as the period examined goes from December 2019-December 2021. The discussion proceeds as follows. The first section describes the financial support provided by the government during the pandemic. The second section discusses the data and methodology used to measure both the change in perceived well-being and changes in actual net worth. The third section presents the results, which include the reported use and perceived effects of the stimulus payments, as well as an assessment of how all of the relevant economic factors affected actual household balance sheets. The final section concludes that high-wealth households gained an enormous amount from the run-up of housing and equity prices during the period we examine; the stimulus payments and market gains helped boost the balance sheets of middle-wealth households; and the stimulus payments allowed lowwealth households to break even – a stark difference from the Great Recession. |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:issbrf:ib2023-05&r=mac |
| By: | Maximilian Tschuchnig; Petra Tschuchnig; Cornelia Ferner; Michael Gadermayr |
| Abstract: | Inflation is a major determinant for allocation decisions and its forecast is a fundamental aim of governments and central banks. However, forecasting inflation is not a trivial task, as its prediction relies on low frequency, highly fluctuating data with unclear explanatory variables. While classical models show some possibility of predicting inflation, reliably beating the random walk benchmark remains difficult. Recently, (deep) neural networks have shown impressive results in a multitude of applications, increasingly setting the new state-of-the-art. This paper investigates the potential of the transformer deep neural network architecture to forecast different inflation rates. The results are compared to a study on classical time series and machine learning models. We show that our adapted transformer, on average, outperforms the baseline in 6 out of 16 experiments, showing best scores in two out of four investigated inflation rates. Our results demonstrate that a transformer based neural network can outperform classical regression and machine learning models in certain inflation rates and forecasting horizons. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.15364&r=mac |
| By: | Daniel Fried |
| Abstract: | The U.S. dollar plays an important role as the most widely used currency in global goods, services, and financial markets. Strong international demand for U.S. dollars and dollar-denominated assets associated with the dollar’s status as an international currency has increased the value of the dollar in foreign exchange markets and the value of dollar-denominated assets in financial markets. As a result, the dollar’s status has contributed to persistent U.S. trade deficits and, by lowering interest rates, to increased access to credit for U.S. households, businesses, and the |
| JEL: | E58 F30 F31 F33 |
| Date: | 2023–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:wpaper:58764&r=mac |
| By: | Peteris Kloks (University of St. Gallen); Edouard Mattille (University of St. Gallen); Angelo Ranaldo (University of St. Gallen; Swiss Finance Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the first comprehensive examination of liquidity in the global foreign exchange (FX) swap market. Our analysis employs effective measures that assess both the tightness and depth of the global market. We identify three main findings: First, FX swap liquidity is fragmented across currencies, tenors, and time. Second, liquidity conditions worsen when dealers’ balance sheet capacity shrinks, especially at quarter-end reporting dates. However, we observe a simultaneous surge in short-term volumes; we rationalize this through a difference-in-differences analysis suggesting a demand channel for FX swaps during reporting windows. Third, we build a measure of pricing efficiency based on the law of one price and show that illiquidity impairs efficiency even during periods when dealers’ regulatory constraints are slack. |
| Keywords: | exchange swap, Global currency market, Market liquidity, Dealers, Price efficiency. |
| JEL: | C15 F31 G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2322&r=mac |
| By: | Alam, Md. Mahmudul (Universiti Utara Malaysia); Ismail, Russayani; Said, Jamaliah; Dirie, Khadar Ahmed |
| Abstract: | To operate successfully in this credit card industry, various kinds of credit cards are offered to distinct user groups. This empirical study is conducted in Malaysia, and it examines the features of different types of credit card available. By using descriptive and one-way ANOVA test, this study analyses data of 234 credit cards which were collected from ringgitplus.com and imoney.my websites. The cards are categorised based on the usage purpose like airline tickets, insurance, dining, entertainment, fuel, lifestyle, groceries, shopping, utilities healthcare and general use. In total thirteen features are analysed for all of these cards. The findings show there is no significant difference in the purpose of cards based on the features of interest and profit rate, balance transfer annual charge, annual fees, annual fees for supplementary card, late payment, late payment maximum fees, cash withdrawal charges fees, minimum annual income, minimum age for primary cards, maximum age for primary cards, and minimum age for supplementary cards. However, only two features are statistically significant among the cards, these being cash back and interest rate on cash withdrawal. The findings will provide important insights for business managers, credit card users, and other policymakers regarding features and market segmentation in the credit card industry in Malaysia. |
| Date: | 2022–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:j84f5&r=mac |
| By: | Liang Hong (Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang, and Malaysia Author-2-Name: Siti Rohaida Mohamad Zainal Author-2-Workplace-Name: Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang, and Malaysia Author-3-Name: Zhang Miaoling Author-3-Workplace-Name: Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang, and Malaysia Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Purpose - The COVID-19 epidemic has significantly impacted organisational citizenship behaviour (OCB) among Malaysian industrial employees. This study investigates the influence of perceived organisational support (POS) on OCB using job insecurity and organisational trust as mediators. Methodology/Technique - Adopt the cross-sectional design with the aid of a questionnaire to collect data from 189 selected employees of manufacturing industries in Malaysia. The PLS-SEM technique is used in this study to test the proposed hypotheses. Findings - The results show that POS directly impacts OCB, and this relationship is also strongly mediated by job insecurity and organizational trust. The manufacturing industries are growing stable on a good workplace climate, including decreasing job insecurity and increasing organizational trust. Moreover, the prior study concentrated on good OCB behavioural results. However, there are also detrimental behavioural consequences that may be impacted by POS, such as unproductive behaviour; therefore, the current research focuses on new variables as mediators, such as job insecurity and organizational trust to fill the research gap. Novelty - Therefore, Organisational trust and job insecurity further mediate the relationship between POS and OCB. Thus, this paper finds an answer to human resource management (HRM) practices, explaining how POS influences organisational trust and job insecurity towards OCB. The study can help management better understand the importance of OCB in introducing and implementing POS through the improvement of organisational trust and job insecurity in the organisation. Implications and future research directions are discussed. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Keywords: | Perceived Organizational Support (POS); Organizational Citizenship Behaviour (OCB): Job Insecurity (JI); Organizational Trust (OT); Manufacturing Industry; Malaysia |
| JEL: | D2 E24 |
| Date: | 2023–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jmmr309&r=mac |
| By: | Irene Ferrari (Department of Economics, University Of Venice CÃ Foscari; Netspar); Jan Kabátek (University of Melbourne, Life Course Centre, IZA; Netspar); Todd Morris (HEC Montreal, Life Course Centre, CEPAR; Netspar) |
| Abstract: | Government policies are encouraging older workers to delay retirement, which may curb younger workers' career advancement. We study a Dutch reform that raised the retirement age by 13 months and nearly tripled employment at age 66. Using monthly linked employer-employee data, we show that affected firms delay and decrease replacement hiring, and coworkers' earnings fall via reductions in hours worked, wages, and promotions. Combined, the hiring and coworker spillovers offset most of the additional hours worked by older workers, disproportionately affect career advancement for younger workers and women, and considerably increase the policy's ratio of welfare costs to fiscal savings. |
| Keywords: | retirement reform, labor demand, internal labor markets, firms, coworker spillovers |
| JEL: | H55 J23 J26 J63 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2023:06&r=mac |
| By: | Arnaud Deseau (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)) |
| Abstract: | Standard Malthusian models predict that a productivity or population shock modify income per capita in the short run. In the long run, however, population pressures make income per capita gradually come back to its steady state. I investigate the duration of this short-run fluctuation, estimating the speed of convergence of Malthusian economies to their GDP per capita and population steady-states. To do so, I first build and calibrate a Malthusian model capturing explicitly the idea that marriages are postponed (advanced) and fertility potential of couples reduced (augmented) during depressions (expansions). I then also run β-convergence regressions on historical panel data. I find consistent evidence of weak homeostasis, with a half-life of about one century. It implies that early modern data may display high persistence without necessarily rejecting the Malthusian hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | Convergence, Homeostasis, Malthusian dynamics, Preventive check, Marriage, Fertility, Malthusian model, β -convergence |
| JEL: | N10 N13 N33 O10 O47 |
| Date: | 2023–03–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2023010&r=mac |
| By: | Britta RENNKAMP; Murray LEIBBRANDT |
| Abstract: | Recurring drought and other severe weather events, combined with unstable energy supply in this region, jeopardize socio-economic development and livelihoods. States’ abilities to provide basic services decline as resources become scarce. Simultaneously, resource-constrained countries struggle to access suitable technological solutions. While the multidimensional nature of inequality has been relatively well documented, this paper expands the concept of multi-dimensionality to interrogate the role of climate change and climate governance in the multi-dimensional inequality framework and its relevance for Sub-Saharan Africa. |
| Keywords: | Afrique |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2023–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en15286&r=mac |
| By: | Nicolás Ajzenman (McGill University); Bruno Ferman (São Paulo School of Economics - FGV); Pedro C. Sant’Anna (São Paulo School of Economics - FGV) |
| Abstract: | We study the interplay between political and other social identities in the formation of social ties in a setting of intense affective polarization. We created fictional accounts on Twitter that signaled their political preference for one of the two leading candidates in the Brazilian 2022 Presidential election, their preference for a Brazilian football club, or both. We interpret preference for a football club as an affective dimension of identity. The bots randomly followed Twitter accounts with congruent and incongruent identities across these two dimensions, and we computed the proportion of follow-backs and blocks they received. Both dimensions of identity are relevant in forming ties, but the effect of sharing a political identity is significantly greater. Moreover, affective identity becomes substantially less relevant when information about political identity is available, indicating that political identity can overshadow other dimensions of identity. Still, shared affective identity has a positive effect in fostering ties even among politically opposite individuals. This result suggests that shared identities such as preference for a football club have the potential to reduce politically induced societal divides, despite the evidence that affective polarization may diminish this effect. |
| Keywords: | Social Identity; Affective Polarization; Brazilian Elections; Social Media. |
| JEL: | D72 D91 C93 Z20 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:231&r=mac |
| By: | Pascal Troxler |
| Abstract: | In the wake of stagnating demand across Alpine ski areas, new pricing regimes and recent advances in the availability of precise local weather forecasts, the relation of weather forecasts to ski demand gains new relevance. I use an activity choice framework in which agents evaluate the utility of skiing relative to alternative opportunities. Thereby, agents decide early based on forecasts or spontaneously based on observed weather outcomes. By matching the demand data of three Swiss ski areas to local forecast and weather data, I show that forecast errors affect skiing demand above the variation through weather alone. Furthermore, I find suggestive evidence that reactions to pessimistic forecast errors exceed those to optimistic errors when agents are more risk averse, less enthusiastic towards skiing or the ski area is located further into the Alps. |
| Keywords: | activity choice, skiing demand, weather, weather forecasts, forecast errors |
| JEL: | Z21 Z31 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdv:wpaper:credresearchpaper43&r=mac |
| By: | Theresa Graefe |
| Abstract: | In 2013, TSOs from the Central European Region complained to the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators because of increasing unplanned flows that were presumed to be caused by a joint German-Austrian bidding zone in the European electricity market. This paper empirically analyses the effects of the split of this bidding zone in 2018 on planned and unplanned cross-border flows between Germany, Austria, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary. For all bidding zones, apart from the German-Austrian one, planned flows increased. Further, I find that around the policy intervention between 2017 and 2019, unplanned flows between Germany and Austria as well as for the Czech Republic and Slovakia decreased. However, for Poland increasing unplanned flows are found. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.14182&r=mac |
| By: | Pascale Phélinas (CESSMA UMRD 245 - Centre d'études en sciences sociales sur les mondes africains, américains et asiatiques - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Inalco - Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales - UPCité - Université Paris Cité, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Valéria Hernández (CESSMA UMRD 245 - Centre d'études en sciences sociales sur les mondes africains, américains et asiatiques - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Inalco - Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales - UPCité - Université Paris Cité); Camille Ciriez (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | Based on a telephone survey conducted among a representative sample of one thousand respondents, this article analyzes the perceptions and attitudes of Argentinians toward the COVID-19 outbreak. The analysis shows that Argentinians overwhelmingly approved of the public health and economic policies pursued by their government and, as a result, changed their behavior. Among the many factors that influenced Argentinians' perceptions and attitudes, trust in institutions (president, governor, mayor) emerged as a major determinant. In terms of emotions, fear and a strong perception of the seriousness of the disease were also found to be powerful drivers of compliance with health regulations. The results also highlight the significance of economic and social measures that reduced the costs associated with precautionary behavior. These findings are robust to the inclusion of a wide range of sociodemographic control variables. |
| Abstract: | Fondé sur une enquête téléphonique menée auprès d'un échantillon représentatif de mille répondants, cet article analyse les perceptions et attitudes des Argentins face à l'épidémie de COVID-19. L'analyse montre que les argentins ont massivement approuvé la politique sanitaire et économique suivie par leur gouvernement, et, en conséquence, modifié leur comportement. Parmi les nombreux facteurs qui ont influencé l'adhésion des argentins à la politique suivie et le respect des consignes sanitaires, la confiance dans les institutions (président, gouverneur, maire) ressort comme un déterminant majeur. Parmi les émotions, la peur ainsi qu'une forte perception de la gravité de la maladie s'avèrent également de puissants moteurs du respect des consignes sanitaires. Les résultats soulignent également l'importance des mesures économiques et sociales qui ont permis de réduire les coûts associés aux comportements de précaution. Ces conclusions sont robustes à l'inclusion d'un vaste ensemble de variables de contrôle sociodémographiques. |
| Keywords: | Argentine, pandémie COVID-19, comportements, observance des consignes, politique sanitaire. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04042503&r=mac |
| By: | Mechthild Donner (INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Hugo de Vries (INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, UMR IATE - Ingénierie des Agro-polymères et Technologies Émergentes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the circular economy and the bioeconomy have increasingly been developed in France, driven by public policies. In this article, innovative circular bioeconomy business models in the French agrifood domain are studied concerning main drivers, business model elements, circular economy principles, enablers and barriers, and sustainability benefits. The study is based on an online review and analysis of 44 local, collaborative and small-scale initiatives. It appears that the strategies of the businesses are based on the seven circular economy pillars laid out by the French Agency for the Environment and Ecological Transition, mostly recycling, sustainable procurement, and industrial and territorial ecology. Geographical embeddedness and the relational proximity of actors are other crucial factors that play a role in the success of these business models, next to pro-environmental consumer trends and local public support. The outcomes further reveal that all three sustainability dimensions are integrally considered in France, with environmental and social dimensions slightly prominent above the economic one. The application of the game concept and its seven building blocks (time, playing fields, pieces, moves, players, rules, wins or loses) allows this study to demonstrate the essential elements of emerging business models within bioeconomy systems, their dynamic interrelations and the need for full policy attention. |
| Keywords: | circular economy, bioeconomy, business model, sustainability, agrifood sector, France, business models |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04047682&r=mac |
| By: | Mohajan, Devajit; Mohajan, Haradhan |
| Abstract: | Proper measure of ideal body weight (IBW) is necessary in medical science. According to physicians, IBW is related to the lowest morbidity and mortality. Broca Index (BI) is a simple and effective tool to measure IBW; and general physicians, nutritionists, and Life Insurance Companies can use it confidently. In this mini review aspects of Broca Index (BI) are discussed for the calculation of ideal body weight (IBW) of health conscious people. |
| Keywords: | Broca Index, ideal body weight, BMI |
| JEL: | C3 C41 C43 I1 I13 |
| Date: | 2023–01–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116852&r=mac |
| By: | Jelliffe, Jeremy; Gerval, Adam; Husby, Megan; Jarrell, Philip; Williams, Brian |
| Abstract: | The United Kingdom (UK) is an important regional agricultural producer with historical prominence in the global agri-food trade. Agriculture covers more than two-thirds of UK land, and top agricultural goods produced include animal products (beef, pork, lamb, poultry, and dairy) and grain (wheat, barley, and oats). Agri-food represents the largest manufacturing sector in the UK, which is known for specialty products. Over recent decades, the UK’s membership in the European Union (EU) mostly defined the country’s agri-food production and trade policies. After leaving the EU through Brexit, the UK is responsible for constructing agricultural policy and negotiating trade agreements. This report explores trends in UK agricultural production and trade and considers the historical UK-EU coupling and potential shifts in agri-food trade patterns post-Brexit. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Relations/Trade, Political Economy, Public Economics |
| Date: | 2023–02–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usdami:333547&r=mac |
| By: | Barbara A. Butrica; Jonathan Schwabish |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the association between Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) awards, disability, and technology access. It uses multiple data sources, regression analyses, and geospatial analysis to document the geographic variation in these relationships. Our initial hypothesis was that any relationship between DI awards, disability, and technology access (e.g., computers, the internet, and broadband) would simply reflect the broadband gap between rural and non-rural, but we find that disparities hold even after taking into account these geographic differences. |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:crrwps:wp2022-13&r=mac |
| By: | Victor P. Seidel; Christoph Riedl |
| Abstract: | Online innovation communities allow for a search for novel solutions within a design space bounded by constraints. Past research has focused on the effect of creative constraints on individual projects, but less is known about how constraints affect learning from repeated design submissions and the effect of the technical constraints that are integral to online platforms. How do creative versus technical constraints affect individual learning in exploring a design space in online communities? We analyzed ten years of data from an online innovation community that crowdsourced 136, 989 design submissions from 33, 813 individuals. We leveraged data from two types of design contests-creatively constrained and unconstrained-running in parallel on the platform, and we evaluated a natural experiment where a platform change reduced technical constraints. We find that creative constraints lead to high rates of learning only if technical constraints are sufficiently relaxed. Our findings have implications for the management of creative design work and the downstream effects of the technical constraints of the information systems that support online innovation communities. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.15163&r=mac |
| By: | Valentina Alvarez-Saavedra à (UB - Université de Bordeaux); Pierre Levasseur (SADAPT - Sciences pour l'Action et le Développement : Activités, Produits, Territoires - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Suneha Seetahul (The University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Recent empirical evidence emphasizes the higher prevalence of overweight and obesity for women, especially in developing countries. However, the potential link between gender inequality and obesity has rarely been investigated. Using longitudinal data from India (IHDS 2005–11), we implement Hausman-Taylor and fixed-effect models to estimate the effect of different dimensions of gender inequalities on female overweight. This study demonstrates that the form of gender inequality or women's mistreatment differently affects female bodyweight. Indeed, we show that some forms of women's mistreatments (such as perceived community violence and age difference with husband) increase the risk of female overweight, whereas more severe forms of abuse such as child marriage increase the risk of underweight. Moreover, we also find that higher decision-making power and autonomy about outings are risk factors of weight gain and obesity, especially in urban settings, perhaps indicating a higher exposure to urban obesogenic lifestyles. To conclude, our results suggest that, although improving women's status in society may be a key action to address the epidemic of obesity, policies must also target hazardous habits that emancipation may imply in urban (obesogenic) environments. |
| Keywords: | India, gender inequality, obesity, Hausman-Taylor estimations, fixed effects estimations |
| Date: | 2023–03–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04051768&r=mac |
| By: | Lukas J\"urgensmeier; Bernd Skiera |
| Abstract: | Digital platforms use recommendations to facilitate the exchange between platform actors, such as trade between buyers and sellers. Platform actors expect, and legislators increasingly require that competition, including recommendations, are fair - especially for a market-dominating platform on which self-preferencing could occur. However, testing for fairness on platforms is challenging because offers from competing platform actors usually differ in their attributes, and many distinct fairness definitions exist. This article considers these challenges, develops a five-step approach to measure fair competition through recommendations on digital platforms, and illustrates this approach by conducting two empirical studies. These studies examine Amazon's search engine recommendations on the Amazon marketplace for more than a million daily observations from three countries. They find no consistent evidence for unfair competition through search engine recommendations. The article also discusses applying the five-step approach in other settings to ensure compliance with new regulations governing fair competition on digital platforms, such as the Digital Markets Act in the European Union or the proposed American Innovation and Choice Online Act in the United States. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.14947&r=mac |