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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Dusan Stojanovic |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a model with high-skilled and low-skilled workers to show the expansionary effects of government spending despite large training costs for new hires. The main idea is that a fiscal stimulus induces changes in the composition of the labor force conditional on the extent of aggregate demand pressure. A period of high aggregate demand pressure is followed by a high value of forgone output as training activity causes production disruption. In this period firms decide to hire more low-skilled workers, who constitute a cheaper part of the labor force. When aggregate demand pressure is diminished, firms switch to hiring more high-skilled workers. However, the current literature considers only high-skilled workers, who tend to increase saving in government bonds to protect against poor employment prospects. In this case, the combination of weak employment prospects and the crowding-out effects of higher lump-sum taxes and government debt on private consumption and capital investment gives rise to recessionary effects. In contrast, this paper provides a model with a more realistic labor and financial market structure and suggests that countercyclical government spending in the form of government consumption and especially government investment can be used to deal with recessions. |
| Keywords: | Government spending; training cost; search and match frictions; financial friction; |
| JEL: | E22 E24 E32 E62 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp748&r=mac |
| By: | Drago Bergholt; Francesco Furlanetto; Etienne Vaccaro-Grange |
| Abstract: | An apparent disconnect has taken place between inflation and economic activity in the US over the last 25 years, with price inflation remaining remarkably stable in spite of large fluctuations in the output gap and other measures of economic slack. This observation has led some to believe that the Phillips curve–a summary measure of aggregate supply–has flattened. We argue that this view may be premature and put forward a few, simple arithmetics which give rise to testable implications for demand and supply curve slopes. Equipped with New Keynesian theory and estimated SVAR models, we decompose the unconditional variation in US macro data into the components driven by demand and supply disturbances, and confront the inflation disconnect with our simple arithmetics. This exercise reveals a relatively stable supply curve slope once shocks to supply have been properly accounted for. The demand curve, instead, has flattened substantially in recent decades. Our results are at odds with a decline in the Phillips curve slope, but fully consistent with a shift towards a more firm monetary policy commitment to inflation stability. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, The Phillips curve, Monetary policy, Structural VAR models |
| JEL: | C3 E3 E5 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bno:worpap:2023_2&r=mac |
| By: | William Barnett (Department of Economics, University of Kansas and Center for Financial Stability, New York City); Sohee Park (Department of Economics, Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN 46383, USA) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the welfare cost of anticipated inflation, when the volume of credit card transactions is included in measured monetary service flows. We use the credit-card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregates in a nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) New Keynesian model and calculate the welfare costs of inflation. The welfare costs of inflation with credit card services included are greater than without them in the New Keynesian DSGE model. Because of the complexity of the model’s dynamical structure, we are not aware of a simple explanation for the increased welfare sensitivity to inflation. |
| Keywords: | Welfare Cost, Divisia, Credit-Card-Augmented Divisia, Monetary Aggregates, Money Demand, Inflation, nonlinear dynamics. |
| JEL: | E31 E41 E51 E52 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:202306&r=mac |
| By: | Matteo Ciccarelli (European Central Bank); Fulvia Marotta (Queen Mary University of London) |
| Abstract: | Using a panel of 24 OECD countries for the sample 1990-2019 and a standard macroeconomic framework, the paper tests the combined macroeconomic effects of climate change, environmental policies and technology. Overall, we find evidence of significant macroeconomic effects over the business cycle: physical risks act as negative demand shocks while transition risks as downward supply movements. The disruptive effects on the economy are exacerbated for countries without carbon tax or with a high exposure to natural disasters. In general, results support the need for a uniform policy mix to counteract climate change with a balance between demand-pull and technology-push policies. |
| Keywords: | Environmental policy, Environment-related technologies, Physical risks, Business cycle, SVAR |
| JEL: | C11 C33 E32 E58 Q5 |
| Date: | 2021–12–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:933&r=mac |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Panama was hit hard by the covid-19 pandemic, but the recovery has been strong. GDP expanded by 15.3 percent in 2021 and a projected 9 percent in 2022. Inflation is low compared with other countries, in part the result of temporary subsidies on fuel and food. The fiscal deficit declined from 10½ percent of GDP in 2020 to 4 percent of GDP in 2022 and central government gross debt is estimated at 60 percent of GDP at end-2022. Banks are, on average, well capitalized and liquid. As insurance against external shocks, the IMF Executive Board approved a two-year Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) arrangement for 500 percent of quota, equivalent to US$2.7 billion (SDR 1.884 billion), on January 19, 2021. |
| Date: | 2023–03–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/122&r=mac |
| By: | Akbobek Akhmedyarova (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we build a DSGE model with the housing market, the non-resource sector and the endogenous oil production sector for an oil-exporting economy. We assess the role of housing market shocks in business cycle fluctuations for Kazakhstan. The model incorporates four key sectors and is estimated using Bayesian methods over the period from 2007Q2 to 2022Q1. We find that inflationary processes in Kazakhstan are mainly driven by shocks arising from housing and import markups. We also find that productivity and housing investment shocks are pivotal in explaining the disturbances in GDP growth. Impulse responses of the model show that a housing productivity shock exerts a stronger impact on output than a housing investment shock. We observe that a positive shock to an oil price leads to a negligible increase in output for all sectors except the non-resource sector, while its impact on inflation is limited. |
| Keywords: | DSGE; Housing market; Bayesian estimation; multi-sector; Kazakhstan |
| JEL: | C11 E30 E32 R21 |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajx:wpaper:25&r=mac |
| By: | Sinem Kilic Celik (IMF); M. Ayhan Kose (Prospects Group, World Bank; Brookings Institution; CEPR; CAMA); Franziska Ohnsorge (Prospects Group, World Bank; CEPR; CAMA); F. Ulrich Ruch (Prospects Group, World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Potential growth—the rate of expansion an economy can sustain at full capacity and employment—is a critical driver of development progress. It is also a major input in the formulation of fiscal and monetary policies over the business cycle. This paper introduces the most comprehensive database to date, covering the nine most commonly used measures of potential growth for up to 173 countries over 1981-2021. Based on this database, the paper presents three findings. First, all measures of global potential growth show a steady and widespread decline over the past decade, with all the fundamental drivers of growth losing momentum over time. In 2011-21, potential growth was below its 2000-10 average in nearly all advanced economies and roughly 60 percent of emerging market and developing economies. Second, adverse events, such as the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, contributed to the decline. At the country-level also, national recessions lowered potential growth even five years after their onset. Third, the persistent impact of recessions on potential growth operated through weaker growth of investment, employment, and productivity. |
| Keywords: | Production function; filters; growth expectations; developing economies. |
| JEL: | E30 E32 E37 O20 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:2302&r=mac |
| By: | Aeimit Lakdawala (Wake Forest University); Bhanu Pratap (Reserve Bank of India); Rajeswari Sengupta (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how the bond market responded to the effects of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy actions undertaken since the start of the pandemic. Our approach involves combining a narrative analysis of the media coverage together with an event-study framework around RBI's monetary policy announcements. We find that the RBI's actions early in the pandemic were helpful in providing an expansionary impulse to the bond market. Specifically, long-term bond interest rates would have been meaningfully higher in the early months of the pandemic if not for the actions undertaken by the RBI. These actions involved unconventional policies providing liquidity support and asset purchases. We find that some of the unconventional monetary policy actions had a substantial signalling channel component where the market perceived the announcement of an unconventional monetary policy action as representing a lower future path for the short-term policy rate. We also find that the RBI's forward guidance was more effective in the pandemic than it had been in the couple of years preceding the pandemic |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy, Reserve Bank of India, Unconventional Monetary Policy, Bond Yields, Forward Guidance, Pandemic |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 G10 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2023-04&r=mac |
| By: | Jonung, Lars (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | When Sweden left the gold standard on September 27, 1931, the Swedish government declared that the aim of monetary policy should be to stabilize the domestic purchasing power of the Swedish currency, the krona. With this step, price level targeting officially became for the first time the goal for a central bank. Soon after, the Riksbank (Bank of Sweden) sent a questionnaire to three prominent economics professors, Gustav Cassel, David Davidson and Eli Heckscher, asking for advice about the new monetary situation. In a few weeks, the Riksbank received their replies. <p> This paper presents the three reports, for decades kept as classified documents in the archives of the Riksbank. The reports give an excellent view of the monetary thinking in the early 1930s of the first generation of modern Swedish economists, prior to the outbreak of the world depression of the 1930s and the emergence of the Stockholm School in macroeconomics. The reports are strikingly modern. They deal with the central issues in the present discussion on inflation targeting, such as the choice of price index to target, the proper instrument to use, the importance of creating public credibility for the new monetary rule, potential legal changes to anchor the new standard, and the appropriate central bank response to changes in the exchange rate. In short, the three economists prepared the first practical guide to inflation targeting at the zero rate. <p> The paper also considers the impact of the reports on the policy of the Riksbank. Most strikingly, the Riksbank started to construct and collect a weekly consumer price index to use as a guide for implementing the new policy of price stabilization. This task was carried out by Dag Hammarskjöld under the guidance of Erik Lindahl. |
| Keywords: | Inflation targeting; price level targeting; Gustav Cassel; David Davidson; Eli Heckscher; Knut Wicksell; Dag Hammarskjöld; Erik Lindahl; the Riksbank; the Great Depression; Sweden |
| JEL: | B22 B25 D83 E31 E32 E50 F33 N14 |
| Date: | 2023–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2023_003&r=mac |
| By: | Di Pace, Federico (Bank of England); Mangiante, Giacomo (HEC Lausanne); Masolo, Riccardo (Catholic University of the Sacred Heart) |
| Abstract: | We study whether firms’ expectations react to the Bank of England’s monetary policy announcements by comparing the responses to the Decision Maker Panel survey filed immediately before and after a Monetary Policy Committee meeting. On the one hand, we find that firms’ expectations and uncertainty about their own business for the most part do not respond to high-frequency monetary policy surprises. On the other hand, announced changes in the monetary policy rate induce firms to revise their price expectations, with rate hikes inducing a reduction in price expectations and uncertainty surrounding them. |
| Keywords: | Central bank communication; firm expectations; high-frequency identification; survey data |
| JEL: | D84 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2023–02–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:1014&r=mac |
| By: | Robert Lehmann |
| Abstract: | Accurate real-time macroeconomic data are essential for policy-making and economic nowcasting. In this paper, I introduce a real-time database for German regional economic accounts (READ-GER). The database contains real-time information for nine macroeconomic aggregates and the 16 German states. I conduct both a revision analysis and a nowcasting experiment. Whereas the first estimates show no systematic revision errors by pooling the states together, this procedure suppresses the revision characteristics of single states. For half of the 16 German states I find that the first estimates are no optimal predictions, thus, leaving room for improvements in the future. The real-time nowcasts for real gross domestic product growth based on a mixed-frequency Vector Autoregression are very accurate, beat several benchmark models and are as precise or better as the first official estimates. More regional data would help to further increase the model’s nowcast performance and thus its properties for the first estimates from regional accounts. |
| Keywords: | regional economic nowcasting, revision analysis, mixed-frequency Vector Autoregression, real-time regional accounts |
| JEL: | C32 C53 C82 E01 E32 R11 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10315&r=mac |
| By: | Hao Jin (Beihang University); Junfeng Wang (Xiamen University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the local determinacy requirements and effects of a money-financed fiscal stimulus under fiscal stress in a canonical New Keynesian model. We consider three alternative monetary policies and find that:(1) The money-financed policy adopted in Galí (2020) to keep real debt level unchanged (zero-debt-increase policy, or ZDI) leads to an unsustainable debt path, while introducing a debt growth target restores stability. (2) A debt-targeting money growth rule (DT) generates smaller instantaneous multipliers and larger cumulative multipliers with respect to ZDI. (3) A mixed-targeting money growth rule (MT) that takes both debt and inflation into consideration exaggerates the trade-off between short-run and long-run multipliers. In addition, we show that relative to seiniorage, inflation and changes in the discount factor play more important roles in financing fiscal stimulus. The results above hold with alternative degree of price stickiness, velocity of money and steady state debt level. Moreover, the effectiveness of a money-financed fiscal stimulus increases when the government issues real instead of nominal debt. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Stimulus; Fiscal Stress; Seigniorage; Government Debt |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inu:caeprp:2023006&r=mac |
| By: | Sinem Kilic Celik (IMF); M. Ayhan Kose (Prospects Group, World Bank; Brookings Institution; CEPR; CAMA); Franziska Ohnsorge (Prospects Group, World Bank; CEPR; CAMA) |
| Abstract: | Potential output growth around the world slowed over the past two decades. This slowdown is expected to continue in the remainder of the 2020s: global potential growth is projected to average 2.2 percent per year in 2022-30, 0.4 percentage point below its 2011-21 average. Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) will face an even steeper slowdown, of about 1.0 percentage point to 4.0 percent per year on average during 2022-30. The slowdown will be widespread, affecting most EMDEs and countries accounting for 70 percent of global GDP. Global potential growth over the remainder of this decade could be even slower than projected in the baseline scenario—by another 0.2-0.9 percentage point a year—if investment growth, improvements in health and education outcomes, or developments in labor markets disappoint, or if adverse events materialize. A menu of policy options is available to help reverse the trend of weakening economic growth, including policies to enhance physical and human capital accumulation; to encourage labor force participation by women and older adults; to improve the efficiency of public spending; and to mitigate and adapt to climate change, including infrastructure investment to facilitate the green transition. |
| Keywords: | Production function; growth expectations; emerging markets; developing economies. |
| JEL: | E30 E32 E37 O20 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:2303&r=mac |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Following a successful COVID-19 containment strategy, the border reopened in July 2022, and tourism is returning to Vanuatu. Economic activity is expected to be strong in the near term, with real GDP growing around 3.4 percent in 2023, as tourism and construction activities resume. High imported prices are likely to stoke inflation and push the current account into deficit, while fiscal policy will turn more expansionary. The Economic Citizenship Program (ECP) is facing significant challenges, with important implications for revenue and governance, while Air Vanuatu, the national airline, is facing serious operational and financial difficulties. Key structural vulnerabilities relating to climate change, limited infrastructure development capacity, and weak governance, persist. |
| Date: | 2023–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/115&r=mac |
| By: | Haroon Mumtaz (Queen Mary University London); Michele Piffer (King's College London) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a exible local projection that generalises the model by Jordá (2005) to a non-parametric setting using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. Monte Carlo experiments show that our BART-LP model is able to capture non-linearities in the impulse responses. Our first application shows that the fiscal multiplier is stronger in recession than expansion only in response to contractionary fiscal shocks, but not in response to expansionary fiscal shocks. We then show that financial shocks generate effects on the economy that increase more than proportionately in the size of the shock when the shock is negative, but not when the shock is positive. |
| Keywords: | Non-linear models, non-parametric techniques, identification |
| JEL: | C14 C11 C32 E52 |
| Date: | 2022–04–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:938&r=mac |
| By: | Hiroshi Nishi; Kazuhiro Okuma |
| Abstract: | We build a three-dimensional Kaleckian dynamic model, incorporating government-provided social common capital’s long-run stock effects and subsequent debt accumulation. We investigate how fiscal stance changes and demand and distributional impacts in a wage-led growth regime affect social common capital accumulation, economic growth, and stability. The Keynesian stability and Domar conditions are necessary for a long-run economically meaningful steady state, while a proactive fiscal stance promotes higher economic growth and a more sustainable economy. A higher wage share stabilises the economy by increasing the likelihood of satisfying the Domar condition, realising an equitable workers/capitalists income distribution, and establishing a resilient economy. |
| Keywords: | Social common capital, fiscal sustainability, government debt, wage-led growth, Kaleckian model |
| JEL: | E11 E12 E25 H54 O40 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2305&r=mac |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic and extreme weather events have aggravated Madagascar’s fragility. The poverty rate is estimated to be above 80 percent. After a stronger-than-expected recovery in 2021, growth is estimated to have decelerated in 2022 mostly due to climate shocks and a worsening global environment. Fiscal performance has deteriorated with weak revenue performance and increasing crossliabilities with oil distributors. While fiscal and external deficits have widened, fiscal and external sustainability are preserved in the medium term. |
| Date: | 2023–03–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/117&r=mac |
| By: | Urban Jermann; Haotian Xiang |
| Abstract: | The majority of bank liabilities are deposits typically not withdrawn for extended periods. We propose a dynamic model of banks in which depositors forecast banks’ leverage and default decisions, and withdraw optimally by trading off current against future liquidity needs. Endogenous deposit maturity creates a time-varying dilution problem that has major effects on bank dynamics. Interest rate cuts produce delayed increases in bank risk which are stronger in low rate regimes. Deposit insurance can exacerbate the deposit dilution and amplify the increase in bank risk. |
| JEL: | E44 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31057&r=mac |
| By: | Duval-Hernández, Robert; Fang, Lei; Ngai, L. Rachel |
| Abstract: | Using microdata from 17 OECD countries, this paper documents a negative cross-country correlation between gender gaps in market hours and wages. We find that the cross-country differences in market hours are mostly accounted for by female market hours and the size of the sector that produces close substitutes to home production. We quantify the role played by taxes and family care subsidies on the two gender gaps in a multi-sector model with home production. Higher taxes and lower subsidies reduce the marketization of home production, leading to lower market hours. The effect is largely on women because both home production and the production of its market substitutes are female-intensive. The larger fall in female market hours reduces relative female labour supply, contributing to a higher female to male wage ratio. |
| Keywords: | gender hour ratios; gender wage ratios; subsidies on family care; taxes; home production; marketization; Wiley deal |
| JEL: | E24 E62 J22 |
| Date: | 2023–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:118061&r=mac |
| By: | Awoutcha Tchieuzing, Romuald Fernand; Fotsing Waffo, Florent Ulrich |
| Abstract: | Does the deepening of bilateral trade between Cameroon and Nigeria strengthen the links between their economic cycles in such a way as to eventually lead to a synchronous evolution? This is the question we attempt to answer here. To do this, two approaches are highlighted: the cycle approach on the one hand. The other is the concordance index of Harding and Pagan (2006), on the other hand. The results obtained show that there is a strong synchronization between the economic cycles of the two countries. The deepening of economic integration between Cameroon and Nigeria constitutes a vector of cyclical transmission and therefore increases the probability of transmission of crises and financial tensions. |
| Keywords: | Intégration économique; Synchronisation; Cycle économique |
| JEL: | E32 F15 F19 |
| Date: | 2023–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116791&r=mac |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Against the background of a strong economic performance over the last quarter of a century, Peru has been hit by multiple shocks in the last several years. Adequate policies and very strong policy frameworks have made the economy resilient. Following a steep decline in 2020 at the outset of the pandemic and a rapid recovery in 2021, growth slowed significantly in 2022 as the policy stimulus was withdrawn and external and financial conditions deteriorated. Recent political developments suggest that the new government needs to work across the political spectrum to create broader political consensus, reduce uncertainty, ease social tensions, and boost growth. |
| Date: | 2023–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/123&r=mac |
| By: | Alexey Gorn; Antonella Trigari |
| Abstract: | We study the stabilizing role of benefit extensions. We develop a tractable quantitative model with heterogeneous agents, search frictions, and nominal rigidities. The model allows for a stabilizing aggregate demand channel and a destabilizing labor market channel. We characterize each channel analytically and find that aggregate demand effects quantitatively prevail in the US. When feeding-in estimated shocks, the model tracks unemployment in the two most recent downturns. We find that extensions lowered unemployment by a maximum of 0.35 pp in the Great Recession, while the joint stabilizing effect of extensions and benefit compensation peaked at 1.08 pp in the pandemic. Keywords: cyclical unemployment insurance; heterogeneous agents; search frictions; nominal rigidities; Great Recession; Covid-19 recession. JEL codes: E24, E32, E52, J63, J64, J65. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:igi:igierp:694&r=mac |
| By: | Begg, Iain; Kuusi, Tero; Kylliäinen, Olavi |
| Abstract: | Abstract In recent years, many countries have sought to transform their fiscal frameworks, with the aim of rendering their public finances more sustainable and preventing the emergence of fiscal problems. This report presents the findings of comparative research into the fiscal frameworks of five countries (Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand and Sweden). All five countries have developed effective fiscal frameworks in the last two decades, and it is evident that they reflect both reactions to past episodes of fiscal laxity and the fostering of a broad consensus on the necessity of a more disciplined and robust framework. There are noteworthy differences of approach, with the implication that rather than there being an optimal framework, successful ones can take different forms. It is never easy to transplant what works in one national setting to another, but there are several insights from experience in the comparator countries which could help to enhance the Finnish fiscal framework. See also publication General Government Fiscal Frameworks and Their Development Needs in Finland. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy, Fiscal rules, Expenditure ceilings |
| JEL: | E62 H30 H61 P52 |
| Date: | 2023–04–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:102&r=mac |
| By: | De Veirman, Emmanuel |
| Abstract: | In sticky price models, the slope of the Phillips curve depends positively on the probability of price adjustment. I use a series for the empirical frequency of price adjustment to test this implication. I find some evidence that the Phillips curve slope depends positively on the repricing rate. My results support the implication from New Keynesian theory with Calvo pricing that the Phillips curve slope is a convex function of the frequency of price adjustment. However, at all observed values of the frequency of price adjustment, the empirical Phillips curve relation is much flatter than the New Keynesian Phillips Curve at standard parameter values would imply. JEL Classification: C22, E31 |
| Keywords: | inflation, Phillips curve, price setting |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232804&r=mac |
| By: | Serdar Ozkan ⓡ; Joachim Hubmer ⓡ; Sergio Salgado ⓡ; Elin Halvorsen ⓡ; Serdar Ozkan |
| Abstract: | We use Norwegian administrative panel data on wealth and income between 1993 and 2015 to study lifecycle wealth dynamics, focusing on the wealthiest households. On average, the wealthiest start their lives substantially richer than other households in the same cohort, own mostly private equity, earn higher returns, derive most of their income from dividends and capital gains, and save at higher rates. At age 50, the excess wealth of the top 0.1% group relative to mid-wealth households is accounted for in about equal terms by higher saving rates (34%), higher initial wealth (32%), and higher returns (27%), while higher labor income (5%) and inheritances (1%) account for the small residual. There is significant heterogeneity among the wealthiest: one-fourth of them—which we dub the “New Money”—start with negative wealth but experience rapid wealth growth early in life. Relative to the quartile of top owners that already started their life rich—the “Old Money”—the New Money are characterized by even higher saving rates and returns and also by higher labor income. Their excess wealth is mainly explained by higher saving rates (46%), higher returns (34%), and higher labor income (16%). |
| Keywords: | wealth inequality, lifecycle wealth dynamics, rate of return heterogeneity, bequests, saving rate heterogeneity |
| JEL: | D14 D15 E21 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10324&r=mac |
| By: | Gianluca Cubadda (CEIS, Università di Roma ‘Tor Vergata’); Marco Mazzali (Università di Roma ‘Tor Vergata’) |
| Abstract: | This paper extends the multivariate index autoregressive model by Reinsel (1983) to the case of cointegrated time series of order (1, 1). In this new modelling, namely the Vector Error-Correction Index Model (VECIM), the first differences of series are driven by some linear combinations of the variables, namely the indexes. When the indexes are significantly fewer than the variables, the VECIM achieves a substantial dimension reduction w.r.t. the Vector Error Correction Model. We show that the VECIM allows one to decompose the reduced form errors into sets of common and uncommon shocks, and that the former can be further decomposed into permanent and transitory shocks. Moreover, we offer a switching algorithm for optimal estimation of the VECIM. Finally, we document the practical value of the proposed approach by both simulations and an empirical application, where we search for the shocks that drive the aggregate fluctuations at different frequency bands in the US. |
| Keywords: | Vector autoregressive models, multivariate autoregressive index model, cointegration, reduced-rank regression, dimension reduction, main business cycle shock. |
| Date: | 2023–04–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:556&r=mac |
| By: | Karl-Friedrich Israel (Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université de la Sarre (Allemagne), Université Catholique de l'Ouest (UCO) Angers); Tim Florian Sepp (Leipzig University); Nils Sonnenberg (Kiel Instute for the World Economy) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we ingestigate the impact of monetary policy on Japanese household incomes using the Family Income and Expenditure Survey. Our analysis focuses on the savings and income structure of households, and covers the period from Q1 2007 to Q2 2021. We find that households in the highest income brackets have a higher proportion of their savings invested in stocks, while middle and lower income households hold a greater share of their savings in bank deposits. Our hypothesis is that the Bank of Japan's monetary policies have boosted stock markets in particular, leading to disproportionate benefits for high-income households through capital gains and dividends. Using local projections, we first identify a positive, lasting cumulative effect of both conventional and unconventional monetary expansion on Japanese stock markets. We then examine how stock market performance impacts household incomes, and find that the effect is strongest for high-income households, decreases for middle-income households, and disappears for lower-income households. Our results suggest that monetary policy may have contributed to the persistent growth in income inequality in Japan, as measured by metrics such as the Gini coefficient and top-to-bottom income ratios |
| Keywords: | monetary policy; inequality; Japan; household income |
| JEL: | D31 D63 E52 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:23005&r=mac |
| By: | Muñoz, Manuel A.; Soons, Oscar |
| Abstract: | The bulk of euro-denominated cash is held for store of value purposes, with such holdings sharply increasing in times of high economic uncertainty. We develop a Diamond and Dy-bvig model with public money as a store of value and heterogeneous beliefs about bank stability that accounts for this evidence. Consumers who are sufficiently pessimistic prefer to hold cash. In our model, the introduction of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) as a store of value that is superior to cash leads to bank disintermediation as some depositors opt for switching to CBDC based on their beliefs. While CBDC partially replaces deposits, long-term lending decreases less than proportionally as remaining depositors are, on aver-age, more optimistic about bank stability and banks re-balance their portfolio accordingly. The appropriate calibration of CBDC design features such as remuneration and quantity limits can mitigate these effects. We study the individual and social welfare implications of introducing CBDC as a store of value. JEL Classification: E41, E58, G11, G21 |
| Keywords: | bank disintermediation, bank stability, cash, central bank digital currency, welfare |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232801&r=mac |
| By: | Tomohiro Hirano; Alexis Akira Toda |
| Abstract: | Existing models of rational pure bubble models feature multiple (and often a continuum of) equilibria, which makes model predictions and policy analysis non-robust. We show that when the interest rate in the fundamental equilibrium is below the economic growth rate (R |
| Keywords: | bubble, dividend, equilibrium indeterminacy, growth, low interest rate. JEL codes: D53, G12. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnn:wpaper:23-005e&r=mac |
| By: | Mr. Ippei Shibata; Carlo Pizzinelli; Marina M. Tavares; Andrea Medici; Longji Li; Myrto Oikonomou; Jiaming Soh; Ms. Florence Jaumotte |
| Abstract: | Digitalization induced by the pandemic was seen both as a possible silver-lining from the crisis that could increase longer-term productivity and a risk for further labor market inequality between digital and non-digital workers. The note shows that the pandemic accelerated digitalization and triggered a partial catch-up by less digitalized entities in advanced economies. Higher digitalization levels shielded substantially productivity and hours worked during the crisis. However, the extent to which the pandemic-induced digitalization led to structural change in the economy is less clear. Less digitalized sectors have rebounded more strongly, albeit after stronger declines, and while workers in digital occupations were more shielded from the crisis, there does not appear to be a structural change in the composition of labor demand. Meanwhile, shifts in labor supply are more likely to be permanent, driven by the increase in working from home. |
| Keywords: | Digitalization; COVID-19; labor market; productivity; productivity regression analysis; digitalization level; longer-term productivity; pandemic-induced digitalization; labor market tightness; Labor productivity; Labor markets; Total factor productivity; Europe |
| Date: | 2023–03–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfsdn:2023/003&r=mac |
| By: | Caputo, Rodrigo; Ordóñez Jofré, Felix (Facultad de Administración y Economía.Universidad de Santiago de Chile) |
| Abstract: | We study the benefits of introducing escape clauses into debt limit rules. These clauses mitigate the trade-off between expanding government transfers and repaying debt, that policymakers face in recessions. In adverse cycles, the government can issue more debt to sustain government transfers and debt payments, reducing both the probability of default and the sovereign spread. The benefits of escape clauses are present even when they are not active. Classification-JEL F34, F41 |
| Keywords: | Debt Limit Fiscal Rules, Escape Clauses, Sovereign Spread, Default. |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ars:papers:992012340006116&r=mac |
| By: | Claire Alestra; Gilbert Cette; Valérie Chouard; Rémy Lecat |
| Abstract: | This paper highlights how technology can contribute to reaching the COP21 goals of net zero CO2 emissions and global warming below 2°C at the end of the century. It uses the ACCL model, particularly adapted to quantify the consequences of energy price shocks and technology improvements on CO2 emissions, temperature changes, climate damage and GDP. Our simulations show that without climate policies, i.e. a ‘business as usual’ scenario, the warming may be +4 to +5°C in 2100, with considerable climate damage. We also find that an acceleration in ‘usual technical progress’ - not targeted at reducing greenhouse gas intensity - makes global warming and climate damage worse than the ‘business as usual’ scenario. According to our estimates, the world does not achieve climate goals in 2100 without technological changes to avoid CO2 emissions. To hit such climatic targets, intervening only through the relative price of different energy types, e.g. via a carbon tax, requires challenging hypotheses of international coordination and price increase for polluting energies. We assess a multi-lever climate strategy, associating diverse price and technology measures. This mix combines energy efficiency gains, carbon sequestration, and a decrease of 3% per year in the relative price of non-carbon-emitting electricity with a 1 to 1.5% annual rise in the relative price of our four polluting energy sources (corresponding to a relatively low but achievable carbon tax scenario). None of these components alone is sufficient to reach climate objectives. Our last and most important finding is that our composite scenario achieves the climate goals. |
| Keywords: | : Climate, Global Warming, Technology, Environmental Policy, Growth, Long-Term Projections, Uncertainties, Renewable Energy |
| JEL: | H23 Q54 E23 E37 O11 O47 O57 Q43 Q48 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:909&r=mac |
| By: | Guccio, C.; Pignatora, G.; Vidoli, F. |
| Abstract: | Austerity policies have been widely adopted in advanced countries to reduce public deficits. However, they can have unintended consequences, including negative impacts on population health. In this paper, taking advantage of temporal and geographical discontinuity of regional healthcare recovery plans (RPs) adopted in Italy since 2007 and employing a matching estimator in a discrete spatial non-stationarity framework, the impact of RPs on mortality rates at the municipal level has been tested for the period 2003 to 2018. We find that austerity has had unintentional negative effects on the mortality rate, particularly in peripheral areas and for the most vulnerable population. |
| Keywords: | austerity; health outcomes; mortality rate; spatial non-stationarity; difference-in-difference; |
| JEL: | C23 E32 I10 I18 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:23/02&r=mac |
| By: | Gupta, Abhimanyu (University of Essex); Kokas, Sotirios (University of Essex); Michaelides, Alexander (Imperial College London); Minetti, Raoul (Michigan State University, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | A large theoretical literature emphasizes financial networks, but empirical studies remain scarce. We exploit the overlapping bank portfolio structure of US syndicated loans to construct a financial network and characterize its evolution over time. Using techniques from spatial econometrics, we find large spillovers in lending conditions from peers’ decisions during normal times: a standard deviation increase in peer lending rates can increase a bank’s lending rate by 17 basis points. However, these spillovers vanish in a large recession. We rationalize these findings through the lens of a model of syndicate lending, where banks’ reliance on private signals rises during recessions. |
| Keywords: | Financial networks; spillovers; cost of lending; syndicated loan market |
| JEL: | C31 G21 |
| Date: | 2023–03–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:msuecw:2023_001&r=mac |
| By: | Stofberg, F.J.; van Heerden, J.H.; Horridge, M.; Roos, L. |
| Abstract: | After showing that the bulk of government expenditure is unproductive, we consider the impact of an alternative fiscal policy mix in South Africa. The alternative suggests freezing the real government wage bill for five years and using the savings generated by this decision to increase spending on a specific, productive and wealth-creative expenditure item, aggregate investments. By indirectly contributing to greater levels of investments we show how government can generate better levels of economic performance and social development. To analyse the economic consequences of the suggested fiscal policy mix we use TERM-SA a dynamic, regional computable general equilibrium model of South Africa. We also add additional features to provide more accurate and detailed results. Our results show that a wage freeze can increase both real GDP and employment in the long-term. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333392&r=mac |
| By: | Sébastien Farkas (Allianz, LPSM (UMR_8001) - Laboratoire de Probabilités, Statistique et Modélisation - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité); Amélie Roux (Allianz, LPSM (UMR_8001) - Laboratoire de Probabilités, Statistique et Modélisation - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité) |
| Abstract: | This report deals with the estimation of inflation coefficients obtained with the Taylor or Verbeek method. In this report, we will first present the challenge behind the search for an efficient estimate of inflation. Then we will show that to obtain these coefficients it is enough to make a Chain Ladder project in calendar view. Finally, we perform a simulation study. |
| Keywords: | Actuarial science, Inflation, Chain Ladder, Taylor, Verbeek |
| Date: | 2023–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04019831&r=mac |
| By: | Andrew Metrick; Paul Schmelzing |
| Abstract: | U.S. and European banking institutions were hit by a wave of distress in March 2023. Policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic reacted with an array of interventions, some targeting individual institutions, others designed to shore up the banking sector as a whole. This paper contextualizes events using a new long-run database on banking-sector policy interventions over the last eight centuries. On that basis, recent actions have already been unusual in their policy mix and size – in the database, the vast majority of events with the same pattern of interventions ultimately evolved into “systemic” bank-distress episodes. |
| JEL: | G01 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31066&r=mac |
| By: | Baek, Yaein (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Han, Minsoo (INHA UNIVERSITY); Kim, Wongi (Sungshin Women's University); Kim, Hyunsuk (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | 본 연구는 노동소득분배율의 변화 추이를 살펴보고 이러한 변화의 주요 요인에 대해 분석한다. 먼저, 최근까지의 우리나라 노동소득분배율 추이를 추정하고 그 구성요소의 변화를 함께 살펴본다. 다음으로, 기존 연구에서 노동소득분배율 변화의 결정요인으로 제시한 기술 변화, 세계화, 인구와 교육 등이 예측변수로서 의미가 있는지 분석한다. 마지막으로, 노동시장을 변화시킬 것으로 예상되는 로봇의 도입, ICT의 발전, 4차 산업혁명 등의 기술 변화가 노동소득분배율과 노동생산성에 미치는 영향을 분석하여 정책적 대응 방향을 제시하고자 한다. The global decline of labor income share has spurred numerous studies investigating the cause of its drop. As decrease in labor share might imply aggravating income inequality, it has been used as one of the main indicators of inequality. Not only is labor income the main source of income for low-income class including the self-employed, but its decline could disproportionately affect low-skilled workers within wage earners. This study analyzes the determinants of the changes in labor share. As technological changes such as adoption of robots, advancements in ICT and the Fourth Industrial Revolution are expected to alter the labor market, we analyze the impact of such technical changes on labor share and derive policy implications. This study mainly consists of four parts. In Chapter 2, we estimated the trend of Korea’s labor income share and examined changes in its components. We addressed the measurement issue of income for the self-employed in two ways. First, we applied various methods proposed in previous studies to macro data and analyzed the adjusted series. Second, we separately estimated labor share using firm-level micro data in which measurement issues do not arise. Main takeaways from these analyses are summarized as follows. First, the level and trend of the labor share in Korea changes greatly when we adjust for the earnings from the self- employed. Most importantly, unlike the traditional measure of labor share, the adjusted series exhibit a downward trend from the mid-1990s to the period of global financial crisis. The difference arises due to relatively stagnant operating surplus of private unincorporated enterprises (OSPUE) compared to rising total employee compensation. Second, short-term changes in labor share are mainly attributed to fluctuations in capital income rather than components of labor income (employee compensation and OSPUE). In particular, fluctuations in net operating profit drive variations in the labor share across time and industries. Third, statistics from various international organizations show that Korea’s overall labor income share has been relatively higher than those of other countries, but the gap is narrowing due to declining share of self-employed workers.(the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | 노동시장; 경제통합labor market; economic integration |
| Date: | 2022–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2022_003&r=mac |
| By: | Thierry Warin |
| Abstract: | The COVID 19 pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine have created major disruptions in several critical sectors of our economies. These phenomena are increasingly making headlines and attracting the attention of policymakers here and elsewhere. Supply chain bottlenecks create stock-outs, fuel inflation and undermine economic recovery (Dudoit, Panot and Warin, 2021, Gerefi et al., 2022, Warin, 2022). In Quebec, 80 % of manufacturers reported that they had faced supply chain problems and had to delay orders or increase prices (Manufacturiers et Exportateurs du Québec, 2022). This has implications for consumers. How are these phenomena perceived and experienced by the Quebec population? To answer these questions, we surveyed the population on the issues related to supply chains. The data collection was conducted online from June 28 to July 4, 2022 with a sample of 1000 respondents representative of the Quebec population. Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version) La pandémie de COVID 19 et l'invasion de l'Ukraine ont créé d’importantes perturbations dans plusieurs secteurs névralgiques de nos économies. Ces phénomènes font les manchettes et retiennent de plus en plus l’attention des responsables politiques ici comme ailleurs. Les goulots d'étranglement des chaînes d'approvisionnement créent des ruptures de stock, attisent l'inflation et fragilisent la reprise économique (Dudoit, Panot et Warin, 2021, Gerefi et al., 2022, Warin, 2022). Au Québec, 80 % des manufacturiers ont indiqué avoir été confrontés à des problèmes de chaîne d'approvisionnement et ont dû retarder l'exécution de leurs commandes voir augmenter leurs prix (Manufacturiers et Exportateurs du Québec, 2022). Cela a des répercussions sur les consommateurs. Comment ces phénomènes sont-ils perçus et vécus par la population du Québec ? Pour répondre à ces questionnements, nous avons sondé la population sur les enjeux reliés aux chaînes d’approvisionnement. La collecte de données a été réalisée en ligne du 28 juin au 4 juillet 2022 auprès d’un échantillon de 1000 répondants représentatif de la population du Québec. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, War in Ukraine, Supply Chains, Consumer Impacts, Public Perception, Risks, Covid-19, Guerre en Ukraine, Chaînes d'approvisionnement, Répercussions sur les consommateurs, Perception de la population, Risques |
| Date: | 2022–08–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:circah:2022pj-07&r=mac |
| By: | Shukina Polina (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University) |
| Abstract: | In the context of increasing competition for capital in the market, it becomes important to increase the investment attractiveness of the company. One of the ways to increase the attractiveness of the company are dividend payments. As part of this work, the factors of dividend payments are identified and systematized, the impact of dividend payments on the yield of shares of the relevant company is shown, and dividend payment strategies in the form of Lintner's target dividend model are studied. To identify correlation relationships, the tools of econometric regression models and machine learning were used. As a result, it turned out that the factor of dividend payments is statistically significantly correlated with the profitability of the company's shares, and the stage of the company's life cycle is a statistically significant factor in influencing dividend payments. |
| Keywords: | dividend policy; life cycle stage; stock returns; target dividend. |
| JEL: | G11 G31 G32 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upa:wpaper:0043&r=mac |
| By: | Sands, Ronald; Beach, Robert |
| Abstract: | Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have proven useful for simulating future economic activity and environmental indicators, especially in response to global drivers such as population, income, technology, and dietary preference. The focus of this paper is to show how output from CGE models can also be converted to nutritional indicators such as calories, carbohydrates, protein, fats, and micro-nutrients. This paper covers post-simulation analysis of food demand, rather than how to specify food demand within a general equilibrium model. There are strong links between the specification of food demand in a model, and how that is calibrated, to the realism possible for reporting calories and other nutritional indicators. It turns out that modification to the underlying social accounting matrix (SAM) can improve the realism of projections of food demand, by increasing the consistency between monetary units in the SAM and physical units (metric tons) in food balance sheets such as those published by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. If model output by food commodity can be expressed by weight (e.g., consumption in terms of grams per person per day), then food conversion tables can be applied to obtain a comprehensive list of nutrient consumption, including macro- and micro-nutrients. This information can be summarized in a variety of nutritional indicators. We cover two key steps: (1) pre-processing of the SAM and food balance sheets; and (2) post-processing of CGE model output. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333467&r=mac |
| By: | Sahin, Sebnem |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to estimate how the role of the private sector in the Western Balkans aligns with the European Green Deal. For this purpose, we developed an economy-wide Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model based on the net economic and environmental benefits obtained from climate finance projects in North Macedonia. We focus on two types of investments: those that target green/digital startups and innovative SMEs (MSME Fund), and others that support large enterprises and infrastructure PPP SPVs (Special Purpose Vehicle) in European Green Deal (EGD) sectors (GSIF). Our analysis focuses on the time frame 2023-2050; the rate of return of those two investments at the end of 5 cycles of investment is around 1.15 to 1.16 for the MSME and GSIF. Both Funds contribute towards decoupling in the approach to 2050. GDP increases by around 1.22 and 2.67 percentage points above the baseline in 2050 while CO2 emissions decrease by about 5.28 and 6.6 (under MSME and GSIF respectively). Overall effects on GDP components (consumption, exports, imports) are positive and higher for GSIF which is a larger fund than MSME. The model estimates a cross-economic increase by 0.69% (or 9, 468 jobs) for the MSME Fund and a 1.36% increase (or 18, 648 jobs) for the GSIF when above the baseline in 2050. This estimate includes a 0.38% increase in employment in the “sectors within the MSME portfolio”, hence an additional 867 jobs above the baseline in 2050. Regarding the “sectors within the GSIF portfolio”, the model estimates a 1.35% increase in employment, equivalent of 17, 867 new jobs in 2050 compared to the baseline. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333471&r=mac |
| By: | Hillberry, Russell; Nguyen, Nhu |
| Abstract: | The rapid growth of utility-scale wind energy generation is a potentially important boon to rural economies in the United States. Yet econometric estimates suggest that the local economic benefits of wind energy generation have been modest, perhaps because the sector is capital-intensive and financed almost exclusively by external capital. In this paper we argue that a) both the presence of a critical - but unpaid - factor of production (the wind) and generous federal subsidies are quantitatively important sources of economic rent, and b) a large portion of these rents accrue to providers of capital who reside outside the local economy. We build a partial equilibrium model that illustrates the mechanisms that generate economic rent, and integrate it into a small open economy general equilibrium model of a county’s economy. We calibrate the partial and general equilibrium models to data from two rural counties in Indiana, quantify the economic rents, and consider the consequences of a resource rent tax. Resource rent taxes generate significantly larger economic benefits for communities that host wind power, and offer an opportunity to spread the sector’s economic benefits more broadly within them. Broadly distributed revenues from resource rent taxes might facilitate greater acceptance of utility scale wind power in communities where the sector would otherwise be unwelcome. State public utility commissions provide an analytical infrastructure that could support local taxation of the kind that we consider. |
| Keywords: | Land Economics/Use, Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333477&r=mac |
| By: | Daniel J. Hernandez (Université Paris Saclay, Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay, CEPS); Fernando Jaramillo (Universidad del Rosario, Bogota, Colombia); Hubert Kempf (Université Paris Saclay, Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay, CEPS); Fabien Moizeau (Université de Rennes, CNRS, CREM-UMR6211, F-35000 Rennes, France); Thomas Vendryes (Université Paris Saclay, Ecole Normale Supérieure Paris-Saclay, CEPS) |
| Abstract: | The need to insure against idiosyncratic income risk leads to the formation of risksharing groups in village economies where formal financial markets are absent. We develop a theoretical model to address the impact of limited commitment and social control on the extent of informal risk sharing when agents are induced to form such risk-sharing coalitions. Social control increases the prospect of future punishment of present defectors and thus mitigates the absence of commitment. A defection-proof core-partition exists, is unique and homophilic. Riskier societies may not be more segmented and may not pay a higher cost for insurance. A higher social control leads to a less segmented society but does not necessarily lead to a lower price for sharing risk. We provide evidence, based on data on Thai villages, that consumption smoothing conforms with our theoretical result of homophily-based coalitions and that social control contributes to a lesser segmentation of a society. |
| Keywords: | Risk Sharing, Informal Insurance, Group Formation, Social Control, Risk Heterogeneity, Homophily, Dyadic Models, Thailand |
| JEL: | C71 D81 O12 O17 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tut:cremwp:2023-03&r=mac |
| By: | Lim, Jing Zhi; Toh, Mun-Heng; Xie, Taojun |
| Abstract: | Technology strategy and governance have turned from a priority to an imperative for firms and governments alike in today's digital economy. Paving the way for the future, ASEAN has entered discussions for an ASEAN Digital Masterplan in 2025 to improve economic integration, and promote inclusive, sustainable growth for the region. We conduct a computable general equilibrium analysis of the impacts of the DEA on the signatories' economies, the ASEAN region, and the world. We find that DEAs will positively increase the output of the ICT sector and has downstream benefits for the business services & financial sector, increasing their output by an average of 6.78%. The DEAs which aim to improve the interoperability of digital systems between countries will also increase inter-regional trade by an average of 7.27%. Data localization clauses that are overly restrictive may be counterproductive and decrease the ICT sector's sectoral output. We also find that countries with a higher proportion of unskilled labor would see the most considerable growth in demand for skilled labor in ICT, reiterating the importance of reskilling the workforce. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333441&r=mac |
| By: | Caroline Marie-Jeanne (GRANEM - Groupe de Recherche Angevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut National de l'Horticulture et du Paysage) |
| Abstract: | With the lowering of the usury thresholds for bank loans on April 1, 2021, the Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is back in the spotlight. This rate must be specified for any credit to individuals and must be calculated according to the methods provided for by law in the Consumer Code. By its character of meter-standard of the real cost of a credit, the global rate allows to compare the offers of loan and to verify that the legal maximum is not exceeded. After half a century of legal changes, two rate indicators coexist, calculated according to two different mathematical methods. Has the initial objective of simplification been achieved? |
| Abstract: | Avec la baisse des seuils d'usure pour les prêts bancaires au 1er avril 2021, le Taux Annuel Effectif Global (TAEG) revient sur le devant de la scène. Mentionné obligatoirement pour tout crédit aux particuliers, ce taux doit être calculé selon les modalités prévues par la loi dans le Code de la consommation. Par son caractère de mètre-étalon du coût réel d'un crédit, le taux global permet de comparer les offres de prêt et de vérifier que le maximum légal n'est pas dépassé. Après un demi-siècle de rebonds juridiques, deux indicateurs de taux coexistent calculés selon deux méthodes mathématiques différentes. L'objectif de simplification initialement escompté a-t-il été atteint ? |
| Keywords: | APR, annual percentage rate, usury, TAEG, taux annuel effectif global, usure |
| Date: | 2021–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03289562&r=mac |
| By: | Gallien, Max; Occhiali, Giovanni; van den Boogaard, Vanessa |
| Abstract: | Tax registration drives have become an increasingly popular intervention to expand the coverage of tax nets across sub-Saharan Africa. However, doubts have recently been casted on their impact, as there is increasing evidence that they do not lead to a substantial increase in revenue, and might skew the tax registry so that towards vulnerable groups are overrepresented. There is little explanation available for these outcomes, as the literature focuses on the outcomes of these exercises – rather than on their processes and premises. We seek to fill this gap through an evaluation of a tax registration exercise of small- and medium-sized enterprises in Freetown, Sierra Leone, implemented by the National Revenue Authority. We argue that the conflicting objectives between national and international stakeholders, as well as between street- and higher-level officials, combined with a technocratic view of the exercise that underestimated its political nature, led to its likely unsatisfactory outcome in revenue terms. However, we also identify non-revenue outcomes that may still be seen as positive from the perspective of policymakers, such as familiarising many businesses with a revenue authority that they previously had very little engagement with. While this outcome of registration exercises is frequently overlooked by similar evaluations, it is one that local officials recognise as important in ‘building future taxpayers’. |
| Keywords: | Finance, Politics and Power, |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idq:ictduk:17932&r=mac |
| By: | Viktor Witkovsk\'y |
| Abstract: | The Tsallis $q$-Gaussian distribution is a powerful generalization of the standard Gaussian distribution and is commonly used in various fields, including non-extensive statistical mechanics, financial markets, and image processing. It belongs to the $q$-distribution family, which is characterized by a non-additive entropy. Due to their versatility and practicality, $q$-Gaussians are a natural choice for modeling input quantities in measurement models. This paper presents the characteristic function of a linear combination of independent $q$-Gaussian random variables and proposes a numerical method for its inversion. The proposed technique enables the assessment of the probability distribution of output quantities in linear measurement models and the conduct of uncertainty analysis in metrology. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.08615&r=mac |
| By: | Guillaume Gruère; Emanuela Migliaccio; Ethan Ellis; Wataru Kodama; Lapo Roffredi; Veronika Vanisova |
| Abstract: | Governments in many countries are pursuing higher environmental goals for agriculture. However, in an interconnected world, the unilateral adoption of environmental policies for agriculture can reduce the producers’ competitiveness and induce pollution leakage. This report analyses these challenges and discusses policy solutions, focusing on two examples: climate change mitigation policies and policies limiting the environmental impacts of pesticides. The extent of competitiveness and leakage effects is found to depend on market conditions, differences in pollution intensity, and the type of environmental policy adopted. Two policy routes are identified to improve agriculture’s environmental performance while maintaining the benefits of global markets. The first route relies on “direct” environmental policies, such as market-based instruments or regulations, which are rapidly effective in limiting environmental impacts but may require additional complementary policies to limit their potential competitiveness and leakage impacts. The second route involves alternative policies acting on agricultural supply, demand, or through private sector engagement, which limit competitiveness and leakage impacts but may require time to be environmentally effective. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture policy, Climate change, Competitiveness, Environmental policy, Pesticides, Pollution leakage, Trade policy |
| JEL: | Q17 Q18 Q58 |
| Date: | 2023–04–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:193-en&r=mac |
| By: | Oh, Young-Seok (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Park, Sung Keun (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | This paper takes the spectrum approach to identify possible industrial and enterprise insolvency and goes on to conduct a composite analysis of both the potential industry insolvency spectrum and enterprise insolvency spectrum. Recently, the proportion of industries and enterprises showing signs of insolvency in Korea’s manufacturing sector has been on the rise. From an industrial perspective, uncompetitive industries, such as those that show negative growth in both the domestic and export markets, are increasing, while the proportion of segments that are recording positive growth in production are decreasing. Moreover, segments with healthy competitiveness are concentrated in only a few segments, such as semiconductors. From an enterprise perspective, on the spectrum from insolvent to healthy, the degree of insolvency increased for all corporations, while the degree of healthiness decreased. By combining these analyses, it was found that, as of 2019, the pattern of enterprises being active in a “competitive segment” is very weak for both healthy and insolvent enterprises. Based on the findings of the spectrum analysis, this study identifies implications for preemptive restructuring policy. |
| Keywords: | spectrum analysis; corporate insolvency; bankruptcy; zombie firms; manufacturing; industrial restructuring; restructuring; COVID-19; interest rates; industrial policy; restructuring policy; competition; competitiveness; competition policy |
| JEL: | G33 G34 G38 H81 H84 H84 L11 L25 L50 L52 L53 L60 |
| Date: | 2021–05–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:2021_007&r=mac |
| By: | Chen Yeh; Claudia Macaluso |
| Abstract: | In this technical report, we construct and analyze measures of firm-level revenues for 1997-2017. Our analysis consists of four parts. First, we start by understanding the sample characteristics of the firm-level revised LBD (version 2019) that can be merged with the Business Register (BR) revenue files as constructed by Haltiwanger et al. (2020). In particular, we characterize which types of firms are most likely to have missing revenues (in terms of size and industry). Second, we characterize the sample characteristics of the establishment-level revised LBD (version 2019) that can be merged with a variety of Economic Censuses that include revenues. Third, we analyze whether firm-level revenue measures from the BR files can be improved upon by constructing revenue measures from the Economic Censuses and the Service Annual Survey files. Fourth and last, we compare firm-level revenues that are obtained from the BR files and the Economic Censuses. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:tnotes:23-03&r=mac |
| By: | Zoe B. Cullen |
| Abstract: | Countries around the world are enacting pay transparency policies to combat pay discrimination. 71% of OECD countries have done so since 2000. Most are enacting transparency horizontally, revealing pay between co-workers of similar seniority within a firm. While these policies have narrowed co-worker wage gaps, they have also lead to counterproductive peer comparisons and caused employers to bargain more aggressively, lowering average wages. Other pay transparency policies, without directly targeting discrimination, have benefited workers by addressing broader information frictions in the labor market. Vertical pay transparency policies reveal to workers pay differences across different levels of seniority. Empirical evidence suggests these policies can lead to more accurate and more optimistic beliefs about earnings potential, increasing employee motivation and productivity. Cross-firm pay transparency policies reveal wage differences across employers. These policies have encouraged workers to seek jobs at higher paying firms, negotiate higher pay, and sharpened wage competition between employers. We discuss the evidence on pay transparency’s effects, and open questions. |
| JEL: | J08 J31 J78 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31060&r=mac |
| By: | Ngavozafy, Antonia; Suarez-Cuesta, David; Latorre, María C. |
| Abstract: | On 15 July 2021, the European Commission made publicly available the tariff elimination schedules of the Association Agreement between the European Union (EU) and Mercosur countries, a mega-regional trade agreement that were concluded on 28 June 2019. Tariff reductions under the EU-Mercosur AA often take the form of linear cuts where both Parties will eliminate or reduce base rates in equal stages from the date of entry into force until the final years of implementation. Tariff-rate quotas (TRQ), either reciprocal or transitional, and specific treatments for some sensitive agri-food products are exceptions to these staging. Although they concern relatively smaller number of national tariff line, liberalization through TRQ is a key element of the EU-Mercosur AA. To evaluate the impacts of the EU-Mercosur AA, we use a standard Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with 8 regions and 36 sectors aggregated from the GTAP10 sectoral and regional classifications, which incorporate tariff-rate quotas. We expect a trade creation effect between the EU and Mercosur countries, which will be associated with welfare gains in both sides. The agreement will also have significant impacts on third parties: suppliers of agricultural commodities on the EU market and suppliers of manufactured products on the Mercosur markets will suffer from trade diversion. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333466&r=mac |
| By: | Efe A. Ok; Gerelt Tserenjigmid |
| Abstract: | We develop a partial ordering approach toward comparing stochastic choice functions on the basis of their rationality. We do this by assigning to any stochastic choice function a one-parameter class of deterministic choice correspondences, and then checking for the rationality (in the standard sense of revealed preference) of these correspondences for each parameter value. Similar to the classical notion of deterministic rationality, our rationality ordering detects violations of (stochastic) transitivity as well as inconsistencies between choices from nested menus. We obtain an easy-to-use characterization of this ordering, and then use that characterization to introduce an index of stochastic rationality. We apply our ordering and index to some well-known stochastic choice models and provide an empirical application using a famous experiment by Amos Tversky. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.08202&r=mac |
| By: | Oladapo, Ibrahim Abiodun; Hamoudah, Manal Mohammed; Alam, Md. Mahmudul (Universiti Utara Malaysia); Muda, Ruhaini; Olaopa, Olawale Rafiu |
| Abstract: | Purpose – This paper aims to compare the perceptions of Islamic bank customers concerning FinTech services in Malaysia and Saudi Arabia. It also investigates the level to which customers are willing to adapt FinTech services. Design/methodology/approach – Primary data were collected from May to September 2019 using a questionnaire to survey 102 Islamic bank customers in Malaysia, and 147 in Saudi Arabia.The data are analysed based on Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) using the partial least squares (PLS) approach. Findings – The findings show that knowledge, attitude, and subjective norms are the highly significant determining factors that influence customers’ opinions on adapting to new technology, but awareness demonstrates only a moderately positive effect. Moreover, the impact of these factors on the intention to adopt FinTech services significantly differs between Malaysian and Saudi Arabian customers. Originality/value – This is an original study based on primary data on customers of Islamic banking in Malaysia and Saudi Arabia. It provides some novel insights into how the Islamic banking industry can boost customers’ confidence and enhance their patronage by adopting FinTech in their business operation model. These findings should be of value to managers, policymakers, and regulators in the Islamic banking industry in both Muslim and non-Muslim countries. |
| Date: | 2022–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:cwpnm&r=mac |
| By: | Alam, Md. Mahmudul (Universiti Utara Malaysia); Fawzi, Agung Masyad; Islam, Monirul; Said, Jamaliah |
| Abstract: | The national security issues in particular non-traditional security issues such as law enforcement, health, food, supply chain management, industry etc. are severely impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak in all countries of the world. As such, the developing country like Indonesia has largely been suffering from this epidemic. In this context, this paper attempts to analyse some national security issues that are affecting Indonesia, which is currently struggling with the COVID-19 pandemic. Proposed here are policy measures to combat both present and future challenges. The study uses secondary data collected from different sources concerning COVID-19 pandemic and security issues of Indonesia. The study analyses the data based on descriptive statistics, highlighting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesian law enforcement issues, and security of health, food, supply chain management, industrial and other economic sectors. The study argues that if the vulnerability continues in these security-related issues due to pandemic, the country will face a harsh reality to manage the state-affairs. Therefore, the policy options are mainly concerned with the COVID-19 issue. Indonesia’s government should identify what measures to take by conducting rapid diagnostics (RPD) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests in the laboratory, respectively. Moreover, the government and relevant stakeholders need to develop strategies that break the stranglehold of COVID-19 transmission in order to resolve Indonesian national security concern. |
| Date: | 2022–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:5tvb3&r=mac |
| By: | David Haritone Shikumo; Oluoch Oluoch; Joshua Matanda Wepukhulu |
| Abstract: | A significant number of the non-financial firms listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange have been experiencing declining financial performance and financial growth, which deter investors from investing in such firms. Hence, the study aimed at establishing the effect of financial structure on the financial growth of non-financial firms listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.10910&r=mac |
| By: | Muhammad Ayaz (University of Balochistan, TREE - Transitions Energétiques et Environnementales - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour); Mazhar Mughal (Centre de recherche de l'ESC Pau - ESC PAU - Ecole Supérieure de Commerce, Pau Business School, UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour) |
| Abstract: | Measuring the precise nature and causes of land inequality is critical for addressing and implementing policy initiatives related to agricultural productivity, rural development and within-country income distribution. In this study, we argue that measuring land inequality solely among land owners does not provide a complete picture of land allocation among agricultural actors. We analyze land inequality (with or without the inclusion of landless peasants) as well as landlessness to present a holistic picture of land inequality across all districts of Pakistan. We employ data on 152, 582 farm households from two rounds of the district-representative Pakistan Social and Living Standard Measurement Survey to construct Gini and Mean Logarithmic Deviation (MLD) indicators of land inequality and decompose it into within- and between-district inequalities. We found that inequalities measured without including landless peasants portray different picture of land disparities than that based on measures of inequality including landless workers. Our main findings are four-fold: 1) Land inequality measured including landless peasants is much higher (Gini = 0.84) than than that without them (Gini = 0.67), and has increased much more between 2007 and 2015 when landless peasants are included (6%) than when measured without them (1%). 2) In 22% of the districts, land inequality without landless peasants decreased between 2007 and 2015 while that measured without them increased. The opposite is true in 5% of the districts. 3) Land inequality without landless workers is higher in irrigated and humid regions with better soil quality and rough terrain while inequality with landless workers is higher in more arid and semi-arid districts. Districts with rough topography face less landlessness in the presence of predominantly-small holder farms, whereas more fertile soil is associated with higher landlessness. 4) Districts based on Pashtun tribal ancestral land distribution rights have the lowest rates of landlessness (20%) while districts with pre-colonial Zamindari-based land distribution show the highest incidence of landlessness (66%). The findings highlight the need for robust tenancy reforms in districts with humid climate, higher land inequality and lower landlessness in order to provide land tenure security to landless tenants and protect them from force eviction by powerful landed elites. Use of information technology in registering land rights through geo-coordinates can be helpful in improving land security and the expansion of the agricultural land markets. Besides, there is a greater need of land redistribution in the southern and south-western districts where landlessness is high despite relatively low extent of land inequality. |
| Keywords: | Land inequality, landlessness, Pakistan |
| Date: | 2023–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04004784&r=mac |
| By: | Roger Martini |
| Abstract: | Regulations are an important part of the policy toolkit governments can use to address climate and environmental objectives in agriculture. This report reviews existing literature on the characteristics and assessment of environmental regulations in agriculture. It finds that direct evidence on the outcomes and cost-effectiveness of agri-environmental regulations is generally limited and situation-specific. However, a taxonomy that classifies and organises information on regulations can give a sense of their number, the environmental domains covered, and the scope and depth of their application. This is potentially useful with respect to measuring progress on international commitments for action on climate change mitigation and other analysis. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Climate change, Environment |
| JEL: | K23 Q18 Q28 Q58 |
| Date: | 2023–04–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:194-en&r=mac |
| By: | Felizes, Amarílis; Sequeiros, Paula (Centro de Estudos Sociais) |
| Abstract: | Public and public access libraries are organized for the provision of a differentiated set of reading goods. They declare to be open institutions for the use of the public. We address the characteristics of the provision and uses of goods in public libraries, referring to the complexity of these characteristics. The theme of library economics and public reading needs to be deepened to build reflection and proposal on public policies of culture, including policies of public reading. We advance the need to understand some lines of economic thought about reading goods, the market, and valuation, sharing and enjoyment of cultural goods. We focus on the economy of public reading in Portugal and the provision of services and goods that propitiate their shared and/or common usage, while acknowledging that there may similarities with other locations and other areas of culture. We reflect on the current relevance of public policies for reading in libraries and on the need to think about public and common modes of provision of cultural goods and services |
| Date: | 2023–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2rkdj&r=mac |
| By: | Kate Schneider (Johns Hopkins University); Jessica Fanzo (Johns Hopkins University); Lawrence Haddad (Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition); Mario Herrero (Cornell University); Jose Rosero Moncayo (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations); Anna Herforth (Harvard University); Roseline Reman (Alliance of CIAT-Bioversity); Alejandro Guarin (International Institute for Environment & Development); Danielle Resnick (Brookings Institution); Namukolo Covic (International Livestock Research Institute); Christophe B\'en\'e (Alliance of CIAT-Bioversity; Wageningen Economic Research Group); Andrea Cattaneo (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations); Nancy Aburto (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations); Ramya Ambikapathi (Cornell University); Destan Aytekin (Johns Hopkins University); Simon Barquera (Instituto Nacional de Salud P\'ublica); Jane Battersby-Lennard (University of Cape Town); Ty Beal (Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition); Paulina Bizzoto Molina (European Centre for Development Policy Management); Carlo Cafiero (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations); Christine Campeau (CARE); Patrick Caron (University of Montpellier, Cirad, ART-DEV); Piero Conforti (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations); Kerstin Damerau (Cornell University); Michael DiGirolamo (Johns Hopkins University); Fabrice DeClerck (EAT Forum); Deviana Dewi (Johns Hopkins University); Ismahane Elouafi (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations); Carola Fabi (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations); Pat Foley (United Nations World Food Programme); Ty Frazier (Oakridge National Laboratory); Jessica Gephart (American University); Christopher Golden (Harvard University); Carlos Gonzalez Fischer (Cornell University); Sheryl Hendriks (University of Greenwich); Maddalena Honorati (World Bank); Jikun Huang (Peking University); Gina Kennedy (Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition); Amos Laar (University of Ghana); Rattan Lal (Ohio State University); Preetmoninder Lidder (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations); Brent Loken (World Wildlife Fund); Quinn Marshall (International Food Policy Research Institute); Yuta Masuda (Vulcan); Rebecca McLaren (Johns Hopkins University); Lais Miachon (Johns Hopkins University); Hern\'an Mu\~noz (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations); Stella Nordhagen (Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition); Naina Qayyum (Tufts University); Michaela Saisana (Joint Research Centre); Diana Suhardiman (KIT Royal Tropical Institute); Rashid Sumaila (University of British Columbia); Maximo Torrero Cullen (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations); Francesco Tubiello (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations); Jose-Luis Vivero-Pol (United Nations World Food Programme); Patrick Webb (Tufts University); Keith Wiebe (International Food Policy Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | Transforming food systems is essential to bring about a healthier, equitable, sustainable, and resilient future, including achieving global development and sustainability goals. To date, no comprehensive framework exists to track food systems transformation and their contributions to global goals. In 2021, the Food Systems Countdown to 2030 Initiative (FSCI) articulated an architecture to monitor food systems across five themes: 1 diets, nutrition, and health; 2 environment, natural resources, and production; 3 livelihoods, poverty, and equity; 4 governance; and 5 resilience and sustainability. Each theme comprises three-to-five indicator domains. This paper builds on that architecture, presenting the inclusive, consultative process used to select indicators and an application of the indicator framework using the latest available data, constructing the first global food systems baseline to track transformation. While data are available to cover most themes and domains, critical indicator gaps exist such as off-farm livelihoods, food loss and waste, and governance. Baseline results demonstrate every region or country can claim positive outcomes in some parts of food systems, but none are optimal across all domains, and some indicators are independent of national income. These results underscore the need for dedicated monitoring and transformation agendas specific to food systems. Tracking these indicators to 2030 and beyond will allow for data-driven food systems governance at all scales and increase accountability for urgently needed progress toward achieving global goals. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.13669&r=mac |
| By: | Faizi, Bushra; Shah, Mohamed Eskandar |
| Abstract: | The paper provides the tariff equivalent (AVEs) of the trade regulations in services from the gravity equation estimated at the sectoral level and access protection by comparing the actual trade values against a benchmark (free trader). The AVEs are calculated using the bilateral trade flows in 19 services sectors for 121 countries from the latest version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database for 2014. We conclude that protection is heterogeneous across the sectors and is indirectly linked with the level of development. The countries with the least protected services are developed countries. On average, the most restrictive sector is the Gas sector with average AVE of 440 percent while the most open sector is Air transport with average AVE of 38 percent. Taking the average of AVEs in all sectors, Luxemburg, Singapore, Belgium, and Ireland are the most open economies while Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Pakistan, and Tajikistan are more restrictive. As part of services is implicit in merchandise trade, Services value-added accounts for more than 60 percent of global GDP in 2020; liberalization can have spillover effects and welfare gains. Protection is primarily high in developing (emerging) countries; liberalization of the service sector is expected to increase their competitiveness and global trade share. Further, it can decrease the widening inequality amid the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333430&r=mac |
| By: | Emilio Depetris-Chauvin (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile); Ömer Özak (Southern Methodist University) |
| Abstract: | We explore the effect of historical ethnic borders on contemporary conflict in Africa. We document that both the intensive and extensive margins of contemporary conflict are higher close to historical ethnic borders. Exploiting variations across artificial regions within an ethnicity’s historical homeland and a theory-based instrumental variable approach, we find that regions crossed by historical ethnic borders have 27 percentage points higher probability of conflict and 7.9 percentage points higher probability of being the initial location of a conflict. We uncover several key underlying mechanisms: competition for agricultural land, population pressure, cultural similarity, and weak property rights. |
| Keywords: | Borders, Conflict, Intra-State Conflict, Ethnic Borders, Non-Civil Conflict, Ethnic Conflict, Territory, Property Rights, Landownership, Population Pressure, Migration, Historical Homelands, Development, Africa, Economic Development, Economic Growth, Voronoi Diagram, Voronoi Tesselation, Thiessen Tesselation |
| JEL: | D74 N57 O13 O17 O43 P48 Q15 Q34 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smu:ecowpa:2303&r=mac |
| By: | OKAZAKI Yurie; SAITO Kosuke; TSUCHIYA Takahiro; SAHASHI Ryo |
| Abstract: | The importance of managing critical technologies is growing as the U.S.-China rivalry intensifies. This research aims to clarify how the policies and regulations of Japan, the U.S., and China on the management of supply chains and innovation ecosystems are reflected in (1) firms' perceptions and (2) actual business decisions. It surveyed the top 5, 000 patent application firms in 2021, excluding local governments, universities, and other entities. After surveying 3, 794 of the top 5, 000 patent application companies, we obtained a valid sample of 305 companies (response rate: 8.0%). The survey revealed that many companies in various industries need to implement management of technical know-how. While the most common pattern of technological outflow was through retirees, there were few cases where actual management of technical know-how involved tracking the movements of retirees. The regression analysis results also indicated that firms that are doing business with both China and the U.S. and receiving investment and funds from both were negatively affected by the U.S.-China conflict. Firms expanding overseas and with a large number of patents are more likely to be negatively affected by the U.S.-China conflict. However, this effect can be offset by implementing management of technical know-how. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:23013&r=mac |
| By: | Bagci, Kenan; Bakimli, Esat; Diallo, Abdouramane |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impacts of alternative trade facilitation measures on trade flows with a special focus on five landlocked African OIC countries, namely Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger and Uganda. By employing a diverse set of data and methodology, it is found that there are significant gains from trade facilitation and improved logistics infrastructure. This benefit is significantly higher in the case of African countries. While infrastructure investments in logistics generate the largest gains, landlocked countries can attain additional gains from efficiency improvements in trade facilitation measures. Nevertheless, the aggregate impact of logistics performance remains significantly higher than the impacts of soft trade facilitation measures in both landlocked and coastal countries. This study also presents the potential gains for the five landlocked African OIC countries in case of a simulated improvement in their trade facilitation performance. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Public Economics |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333447&r=mac |