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on Macroeconomics |
| By: | Manuel Amador; Javier Bianchi |
| Abstract: | We show that if the central bank operates without commitment and faces constraints on its balance sheet, helicopter drops can be a useful stabilization tool during a liquidity trap. With commitment, even with balance sheet constraints, helicopter drops are irrelevant. |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 E61 E63 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31046&r=mac |
| By: | Adrián Ravier; Erwin Rosen |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy, Natural Rate of Interest Rule, Subprime Crisis |
| JEL: | E42 E58 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4514&r=mac |
| By: | Pablo J. Mira |
| Keywords: | Consumo, Comportamiento, Ciclo |
| JEL: | E32 E21 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4492&r=mac |
| By: | Laine, Olli-Matti; Pihlajamaa, Matias |
| Abstract: | We study asymmetric inflation effects of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the euro area during the period of low nominal interest rates. We find that rate cuts are inflationary also during low interest rates. Positive quantitative easing surprises have a deflationary effect, but negative quantitative easing surprises have no inflationary effects. This result may be explained by information effects. The effect of monetary policy depends on the size of policy surprise and is lower during recessions than during booms. We also provide evidence that interest rate policy, forward guidance and quantitative easing are complementary to one another. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, asymmetric effects, inflation |
| JEL: | E50 E31 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:32023&r=mac |
| By: | Mazelis, Falk; Motto, Roberto; Ristiniemi, Annukka |
| Abstract: | We study alternative monetary policy strategies in the presence of the lower bound on nominal interest rates and a low equilibrium real rate using an estimated DSGE model for the euro area. We find that simple feedback rules that implement inflation targeting result in a binding lower bound one-fourth of the time as well as inflation and output exhibiting large downward biases and heightened volatility. Rule-based asset purchases that are activated once the policy rate reaches the lower bound are not able to fully offset the destabilizing effects of the lower bound if we assume plausible limits on the size of purchases. Makeup strategies, especially average inflation targeting with a long averaging window, perform better than inflation targeting. However, differences in performance across strategies become small if the response coefficients of the feedback rules are optimized. In addition, we find that the benefits of makeup strategies tend to vanish if agents exhibit a degree of inattention to central bank policies as estimated in the data. JEL Classification: E31, E32, E37, E52, E58, E61, E71 |
| Keywords: | asset purchases, effective lower bound, forward guidance, makeup strategies, monetary policy, optimal policy |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232797&r=mac |
| By: | Josué Diwambuena; Raquel Fonseca; Stefan Schubert |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of labor market institutions on the cyclicality of labor productivity and aggregate fluctuations in Italy. It uses a New Keynesian model with labor market frictions and labor effort when two wage bargaining settings (efficient Nash and right-to-manage) interact with three types of hiring costs. We focus on three sets of labor market deregulation modeled as a fall in wage rigidity, hiring costs, and the bargaining power of workers. We show that, when labor effort varies, reforms trigger procyclical productivity under efficient bargaining, and countercyclical productivity under right-to-manage bargaining. Reforms also have different effects on cyclical moments. Second, we estimate the model with Bayesian techniques and find that productivity is mainly driven by technology shocks. |
| Keywords: | Labor market institutions, labor productivity, business cycles, hiring costs, effort. |
| JEL: | E24 E32 C51 C52 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsi:creeic:2302&r=mac |
| By: | Konrad Kuhmann |
| Abstract: | I study the role of firm heterogeneity for the transmission of unconventional monetary policy in the form of “credit policy†à la Gertler and Karadi (2011). To this end, I lay out a Two-Agent New-Keynesian model with financially constrained and unconstrained firms and a financial intermediary with an endogenous leverage constraint. I find that, when firms are heterogeneous, aggregate investment is substantially less responsive to credit policy compared to an identical firm setting. Moreover, when debt markets are segmented, credit policy directed exclusively at financially unconstrained firms is most effective. My paper provides a tractable framework to illustrate mechanisms through which firm heterogeneity affects the transmission of credit policy. According to my findings, the presence of firm heterogeneity can be expected to make credit policy less effective than predicted by a representative agent framework. |
| Keywords: | Credit Policy, Firm Heterogeneity, Investment, Financial Frictions |
| JEL: | E50 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2023–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0012&r=mac |
| By: | Danny Hermawan; Denny Lie; Aryo Sasongko; Richard I. Yusan |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates the impact of transaction cost-induced variations in the velocity of money on inflation dynamics, based on a structural New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) with an explicit money velocity term. The money velocity effect arises from the role of money, both in physical and digital forms, in reducing the aggregate transaction costs and facilitating purchases of goods and services. We find a non-trivial aggregate impact in the context of the Indonesian economy: our benchmark estimates suggest that a 10% decrease in money velocity, which might be facilitated by a new digital currency (e.g. CBDC) issuance, would reduce the inflation rate by 0:6-1:7%, all else equal. Using the estimates and within a small-scale New Keynesian DSGE model, we analyze the potential implications of a CBDC issuance on aggregate fluctuations. A CBDC issuance that conservatively lowers the velocity of money by 5% is predicted to permanently raise the GDP level by 0:8% and lower the inflation rate by 0:8%. Both nominal and real interest rates are also permanently lower. Our findings imply that central banks could potentially use CBDCs as an additional stabilization policy tool by influencing the velocity. |
| Keywords: | inflation dynamics; transaction cost; velocity of money; digital money; digital currency; central bank digital currency (CBDC); aggregate fluctuations; |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:syd:wpaper:2023-01&r=mac |
| By: | George Kapetanios (King’s College London); Panagiotis Koutroumpis (Queen Mary University London); Christopher Tsoukis (Keele University) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the fiscal (spending) multiplier using quarterly U.S. data, 1986-2017. We define government spending shocks as actual minus expected expenditure growth, the latter obtained from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We employ the ST-VAR model with the local projections method. A key testable conjecture is that the effects of positive and negative spending shocks have numerically different effects (the latter being stronger). Although we cannot formally reject the null of equality, the conjecture does hold in general. We also nd evidence of state-dependence of multipliers as previously pointed out. |
| Keywords: | fiscal multiplier, government spending, stabilisation policy, local projections |
| JEL: | E60 E62 H30 |
| Date: | 2022–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:939&r=mac |
| By: | Ako Viou Bahun-Wilson (Université de Sherbrooke) |
| Abstract: | Recent empirical investigations by Argente et al. (2018) reveal that product reallocation, i.e. creation and destruction of products, happens through two leading margins: entry and exit of production modules within firms, the so-called "extensions", and changes in the characteristics of products within incumbent production modules, the so-called "improvements". This paper develops a DSGE model in which product reallocation involves these two margins and examines the impact on macroeconomic dynamics. I show that relative to the standard model that only accounts for extensions, the model augmented with product improvements does a better job at explaining the dynamics of production modules within firms and the firm-level TFP. A recession facilitates the production of low-quality/low-cost products, which allows the survival of low-productivity modules that would not survive in a fixed quality environment. As the recessionary shock dissipates, the share of high-quality products increases, eliminating low-productivity and low-quality modules and increasing the firm-level TFP. My results illustrate the importance of recognizing the dynamics of product characteristics within firms’ production lines in addition to the dynamics of production lines per se to understand business cycles. |
| Keywords: | product creation and destruction, multi-line firm, quality switching, business cycles. |
| JEL: | D24 E23 E32 L15 L60 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shr:wpaper:22-01&r=mac |
| By: | Fabrice Dabiré (Department of Economics, Université de Sherbrooke); Hashmat Khan (Department of Economics, Carleton University); Patrick Richard (Department of Economics, Université de Sherbrooke); Jean-François Rouillard (Department of Economics, Université de Sherbrooke) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effects of government spending (G) on GDP in Canada using the sign restricted VAR approach with quarterly data that spans from 1961 to 2019. The variables that enter our vector autoregressive model are carefully chosen to reflect the distinct characteristics of the Canadian economy, in particular, its linkages with US business cycles. We find large median multipliers that are above 1 on impact and in the long-run. They are not specific to the state of the economy. Moreover, neither net exports nor real exchange rates nor terms-of-trade respond significantly to G shocks. We also find large and long-lasting effects of shocks specific to government spending in investment and in consumption on output. |
| Keywords: | government spending multipliers, sign restricted VARs, Canadian economy |
| JEL: | E32 E62 C51 |
| Date: | 2021–12–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:car:carecp:21-14&r=mac |
| By: | Laurence M. Ball; Carlos Carvalho; Christopher Evans; Luca Antonio Ricci |
| Abstract: | The standard measure of core or underlying inflation is the inflation rate excluding food and energy prices. This paper constructs an alternative measure, the weighted median inflation rate, for 38 advanced and emerging economies using subclass level disaggregation of the CPI over 1990-2021, and compares the properties of this measure to those of standard core. For quarterly data, we find that the weighted median is less volatile than standard core, more closely related to economic slack, and more closely related to headline inflation over the next year. The weighted median also has a drawback: in most countries, it has a lower average level than headline inflation. We therefore also consider a measure of core inflation that eliminates this bias, which is based on the percentile of sectoral inflation rates that matches the sample average of headline CPI inflation. |
| JEL: | C43 E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31032&r=mac |
| By: | Anastasios G. Karantounias (University of Surrey) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes optimal policy in setups where both the policymaker and the private sector have doubts about the probability model of uncertainty and form endogenous worstcase beliefs. There are two forces that shape optimal policy results: a) the manipulation of the endogenous beliefs of the private sector so that the forward-looking constraints that the policymaker is facing are relaxed, b) the discrepancy (if any) in pessimistic beliefs between a paternalistic policymaker and the private sector, which captures ultimately differences in welfare evaluation. I illustrate the methodology in an optimal fiscal policy problem and show that manipulation of beliefs materializes as an effort to make government debt cheaper through the endogenous beliefs of the household. This force may lead to either mitigation or amplification of the household's pessimism, depending on the problem's parameters. The policymaker's relative pessimism determines whether paternalism reinforces or opposes the price manipulation incentives. |
| JEL: | D80 E52 E61 E62 H21 H63 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sur:surrec:0423&r=mac |
| By: | Sharaf, Mesbah Fathy; Shahen, Abdelhalem Mahmoud |
| Abstract: | Purpose: This study aims to examine the symmetric and asymmetric impact of external debt on inflation in Sudan from 1970 to 2020 within a multivariate framework by including money supply and the nominal effective exchange rate as additional inflation determinants. Design/methodology/approach: We utilize an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the symmetric impact of external debt on inflation, while the asymmetric impact is examined using a nonlinear Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The existence of a long-run relationship between inflation and external debt is tested using the bounds-testing approach to cointegration, and a vector error-correction model is estimated to determine the short parameters of equilibrium dynamics. Findings: The linear ARDL model results show that external debt has no statistically significant impact on inflation in the long run. On the contrary, the results of the NARDL model show that positive and negative external debt shocks statistically impact inflation in the long run. The estimated long-run elasticity coefficients of both the linear and nonlinear ARDL models reveal that the domestic money supply has a statistically significant positive impact on inflation. In contrast, the nominal effective exchange rate has a statistically significant negative impact on inflation. Practical implications: The reliance on symmetric analysis may not be sufficient to uncover the existence of a linkage between external debt and inflation. Proper external debt management is crucial to control inflation rates in Sudan. Originality/Value: To date, no empirical study has assessed the external debt-inflation nexus and its potential asymmetry in Sudan, and the current study aims to fill this gap in the literature. |
| Keywords: | External Debt, Exchange rate, Inflation, Money supply, NARDL, Sudan |
| JEL: | E31 E52 F34 O24 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:270641&r=mac |
| By: | Kishor, N. Kundan |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the ability of various indicators related to macroeconomic fundamentals, credit conditions, and housing supply to predict house price growth in the United States during the post-financial crisis period. We find that the inclusion of different measures of housing supply indicators significantly improves the forecasting performance for the period of 2010-2022. Specifically, incorporating the monthly supply of new homes into a VAR model with house price growth reduces the RMSE by over 30 percent compared to a univariate benchmark. Moreover, forecasting accuracy improves further at a longer forecast horizon (greater than three months) when the mortgage rate spread is also used as a predictor. Further improvements are made if "Direct" forecasts are used instead of iterative forecasts. The shrinkage method like LASSO shows that the monthly supply of new homes is an important predictor at all forecasting horizons, while the mortgage spread is most relevant for longer forecast horizons. |
| Keywords: | House Price Forecasting, Fundamentals, Credit Conditions, Supply Indicators, Variable Selection, Direct Forecasts |
| JEL: | E32 E43 E52 G17 R31 |
| Date: | 2023–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116819&r=mac |
| By: | Yiping Huang; Xiang Li; Han Qiu; Changhua Yu |
| Abstract: | This paper studies monetary policy transmission through BigTech and traditional banks. By comparing business loans made by a BigTech bank with those made by traditional banks, it finds that BigTech credit amplifies monetary policy transmission mainly through the extensive margin. Specifically, the BigTech bank is more likely to grant credit to new borrowers compared with conventional banks in response to expansionary monetary policy. The BigTech bank's advantages in information, monitoring, and risk management are the potential mechanisms. In addition, the usage of BigTech credit is associated with a stronger response of firms' sales in response to monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | financial technology, monetary policy transmission, bank lending |
| JEL: | G21 E52 G23 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1084&r=mac |
| By: | Joshua Brault (Department of Economics, Carleton University); Hashmat Khan (Department of Economics, Carleton University) |
| Abstract: | We construct a two period consumption-saving model with two agents where rising income inequality leads to declining equilibrium rates of interest, rising debt levels, and lower future aggregate demand. Importantly, our model does not rely on non-homothetic preferences to generate these outcomes. Instead, borrowers face a borrowing constraint which eases when income inequality increases. This feature is supported by the stylized fact that consumer credit and inequality have strongly co-moved and risen in the U.S. since the mid-1980s. |
| Keywords: | Income inequality, Borrowing Constraint, Interest rate, Indebted demand |
| JEL: | E21 E43 |
| Date: | 2021–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:car:carecp:21-13&r=mac |
| By: | Jose-Maria Da-Rocha; Diego Restuccia; Marina M. Tavares |
| Abstract: | What accounts for income per capita and total factor productivity (TFP) differences across countries? We study resource misallocation across heterogeneous production units in a general equilibrium model where establishment productivity and size are affected by policy distortions. We solve the model in closed form and show that policy distortions have a substantial negative effect on establishment productivity growth, average establishment size, and aggregate productivity. Calibrating a distorted benchmark economy to U.S. data, we find that empirically reasonable variations in distortions generate reductions in aggregate TFP of more than 24 percent while slightly increasing concentration in the establishment size distribution. If distortions in addition lower the exit rate of incumbent establishments, as supported by some empirical evidence, the aggregate TFP loss doubles to 48 percent. |
| Keywords: | distortions, misallocation, investment, productivity, establishment size. |
| JEL: | O11 O3 O41 O43 O5 E0 E13 C02 C61 |
| Date: | 2023–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-750&r=mac |
| By: | Fabrice Dabiré (Université de Sherbrooke) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses zero and signs restrictions to study the effect of the U.S. forward guidance and unanticipated monetary policy on four U.S. bilateral nominal exchange rates and net exports. I find that although the U.S. forward guidance easing depreciates the exchange rate, the policy does not transmit to the real activity via an “expenditure-switching effect” on the net exports. The use of narrative sign restrictions improves the identification method. The complementary results are as follows: a VAR model augmented with interest rate forecasts contains at least enough information to identify the forward guidance and unanticipated monetary shocks; the nominal bilateral exchange rates depreciate by two to four percent after a 25 basis point forward guidance easing in a hump-shaped pattern without any deviation from the Uncovered Interest rate Parity condition; both shocks explain between 7.3 percent to 27.9 percent of the exchange rates variance, and the forward guidance shock contributes to at least half of this variance decomposition; finally, forecasters perceive the forward guidance shock as future deviation from the Taylor rule. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, Forward guidance, Exchange rate, Sign restrictions. |
| JEL: | E52 E58 F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shr:wpaper:22-03&r=mac |
| By: | Yuki Tada (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research, USA) |
| Abstract: | The main aim of this paper is to study the variety of financialized capitalism which are contingent on the institution, policy, and path dependency. Using the neo-Kaleckian model we study to model the US and UK shareholder-oriented financialized capitalism using our own version of the Miskyan cycle. Meanwhile, Japanese partially fledged financialized capitalism with high retention rates of firms is analyzed by using the paradox of the debt (Steindl) cycle. The analysis shows (1) instability arises when firms have a high retention rate of profit to deleverage; (2) debt-led Minsky regime and the debt-burdened paradox of debt regime can be distinguished by setting sufficiently low retention rates for the former and sufficiently high retention rate for the latter; (3) both in the Minskyan and Steindl regime we observe fixed capital investment is sluggish and observe secular stagnation in accumulation rate; (4) in the Steindl paradox of debt model, the debt-burdened economic stagnation transforms into a long wave cyclical growth with sufficiently high firms animal spirits, which exhibits the possibility of the investment-led cyclical growth after the secular stagnation from the paradox of debt. |
| Keywords: | Minsky, paradox of debt, capitalism, growth, financial instability, supercycle |
| JEL: | B52 D21 E12 E32 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:2304&r=mac |
| By: | Kento Tango; Yoshiyuki Nakazono |
| Abstract: | We propose a new concept of monetary policy shocks: subjective monetary policy shocks. Using a unique survey on both consumption expenditures and forecasts of interest rates, we identify a cross-sectionally heterogeneous monetary policy shock at the micro level. We first distinguish between exogenous and endogenous interest rate changes and define the exogenous component as a subjective monetary policy shock for each household. We then estimate the impulse responses of consumption expenditures to a subjective monetary policy shock. We find the stark contrasts in the dynamics of consumption expenditures between borrowers and lenders; in response to an unexpected rise in interest rates, consumption expenditures by borrowers decrease, whereas those of asset holders increase. We also find large and quick responses of consumption expenditures when households are attentive to interest rates. Our findings support the theoretical prediction of not only heterogeneous agent New Keynesian models, but also behavioral macroeconomics under imperfect information. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:tupdaa:34&r=mac |
| By: | Nobuhiro Abe (Bank of Japan); Kyosuke Chikamatsu (Bank of Japan); Kenji Kanai (Bank of Japan); Yusuke Kawasumi (Bank of Japan); Ko Munakata (Bank of Japan); Koki Nakayama (Bank of Japan); Tatsushi Okuda (International Monetary Fund); Yutaro Takano (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | The Financial Macro-econometric Model (FMM) is the model that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) employs in its macro stress testing to examine the risk resilience of Japan's financial system in a comprehensive and quantitative manner. The BOJ semiannually publishes the results of its analyses based on this model in the Financial System Report. The FMM is also used in the simultaneous stress testing based on common scenarios conducted periodically with the Financial Services Agency of Japan. Key characteristics of the FMM are that it (1) explicitly captures feedback loops between the domestic banking sector and the real economy, and (2) makes it possible to calculate the variables of interest (e.g. amount of loans and capital adequacy ratios of Japanese banks), not only at the sector level but also at the individual bank level. Since its development in 2011, the FMM has been continuously improved to reflect new developments in economic and financial conditions and to better incorporate the transmission mechanisms of financial shocks into the macro stress testing. This paper provides an outline of the basic macro stress testing framework and the FMM, and then describes the structure of the model as of September 2022 in detail. |
| Keywords: | Banks' stability; Macro stress test; Capital buffer regulation |
| JEL: | E10 E32 E44 E47 G10 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2023–03–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojron:ron230330a&r=mac |
| By: | Viral V. Acharya; Rahul S. Chauhan; Raghuram Rajan; Sascha Steffen |
| Abstract: | When the Federal Reserve (Fed) expanded its balance sheet via quantitative easing (QE), commercial banks financed reserve holdings with deposits and reduced their average maturity. They also issued lines of credit to corporations. However, when the Fed halted its balance-sheet expansion in 2014 and even reversed it during quantitative tightening (QT) starting in 2017, there was no commensurate shrinkage of these claims on liquidity. Consequently, the financial sector was left more sensitive to potential liquidity shocks, with weaker-capitalized banks most exposed. This necessitated Fed liquidity provision in September 2019 and again in March 2020. Liquidity-risk-exposed banks suffered the most drawdowns and the largest stock price declines at the onset of the Covid crisis in March 2020. The evidence suggests that the expansion and shrinkage of central bank balance sheets involves tradeoffs between monetary policy and financial stability. |
| JEL: | G21 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31050&r=mac |
| By: | Ciccarelli, Matteo; Kuik, Friderike; Hernández, Catalina Martínez |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the impact of weather shocks on inflation components in the four largest euro area economies. We combine high-frequency weather data with monthly data on inflation and output growth within a set of Bayesian Vector Autore-gressions which explicitly considers the seasonal dependence of the shock. Results suggest the presence of significant country asymmetries and seasonal responses of inflation to temperature shocks, mainly via food, energy, and service prices. An increase in monthly mean temperatures has inflationary effects in summer and au-tumn, with a stronger response in warmer euro area countries. An increase in temperature variability has significant upward impacts on inflation rates over and above the impacts of changes in means. JEL Classification: Q54, E31, C32 |
| Keywords: | climate change, inflation, temperature shocks, vector autoregression |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232798&r=mac |
| By: | Ernest Dautović; Leonardo Gambacorta; Alessio Reghezza |
| Abstract: | At the onset of the Covid-19 outbreak, central banks and supervisors introduced dividend restrictions as a new policy instrument aimed at supporting lending to the real economy and strengthening banks' capacity to absorb losses. In this paper we estimate the impact of the ECB's dividend recommendation on bank lending and risk-taking. To address identification issues, we rely on credit registry data and a direct measure that captures variation in compliance with the recommendation across banks in the euro area. The analysis disentangles the confounding effects stemming from the wide range of monetary and fiscal policies that supported credit during the Covid-19 downturn and investigates their interaction with the dividend recommendation. We find that dividend restrictions have been an effective policy in supporting financially constrained firms, adding capital space to banks, and limiting some forms of procyclical behaviour. The effects on lending are larger for small and medium enterprises and for firms operating in Covid-19 vulnerable sectors. At the same time, we do not find evidence of a significant increase in lending to riskier borrowers and "zombie" firms. |
| Keywords: | dividend restrictions, supervisory policy, credit supply, European Central Bank, Covid-19 |
| JEL: | E5 E51 G18 G21 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1085&r=mac |
| By: | Eizo Kawai |
| Abstract: | This study perceives an unacceptable unreality of a macro price mechanism: i.e., the unreality that under any severe recession, worsening deflation, or a consistent decline in the rate of inflation will lead an economy to full employment equilibrium. This unreality is a result of an arbitrary assumption that the micro price mechanism operates even in a macroeconomy: a fallacy of composition. This study challenges the modern macroeconomics theories on price mechanism and unemployment based on the skepticism toward existing theories. This study gets the following two conclusions: First, in a macroeconomy, market failure occurs because the price mechanism does not function, especially under deflation. Consequently, even if nominal values are sufficiently flexible, steady-state and thus full employment equilibrium do not hold. This differs significantly from new Keynesian market failure. Market failure in a short-run macroeconomy is because of the unavoidable spillover effects, or the derived demand effects between goods and labor markets under disequilibrium from rigid wages and prices. Market failure would occur even in the long-term macroeconomy as an inevitable conjecture from the short-run analysis. For the above analyses, a static model is sufficient, and dynamic models are unnecessary and theoretically unfeasible. Second, Keynes¡Ç unemployment equilibrium is realized owing to market failure in a macroeconomy. It shows that involuntary unemployment results from quantitative and not price aspects. In other words, the unemployment results from shortage in labor demand under rigid real wages and not under rigidity of real wages. Final section shows three novel proposals for future contributions of this study¡Çs implications. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcr:wpaper:e182&r=mac |
| By: | Denisa Sologon; Cathal O’Donoghue; Jules Linden; Iryna Kyzyma; Jason Loughrey |
| Abstract: | This paper disentangles the distributional and welfare impact of price changes since the start of the cost of living crisis for a subset of European countries with different welfare regimes and price changes. It decomposes the impact of inflation and measures welfare changes using the compensating variation and equivalent incomes in a cross-national comparative perspective. The impact of inflation depends on good-specific price increases and budget shares. Budget shares for necessities (e.g. food, domestic fuel, electricity) are higher in poorer countries and for poorer people. Higher price growth in these necessities has resulted in higher inflation in poorer countries. Counter to the media narrative, the distributional impact is less substantial than expected. A significant cross-country variability exists, however, in inflation levels, composition and relative rates across the distribution. Similar levels of inflation regressivity result from different interplays between the level and disproportionality of inflation along the income distribution. We quantify the compensating variation of inflation with a relatively small behavioural component due to the preponderance of necessities among the goods with high price changes. An important factor concerning the potential impact on households is the savings rate. Households with already low savings are disproportionally feeling the impact on their expenditure. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; distributional effect; welfare effect |
| JEL: | D12 D31 D60 E31 I30 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irs:cepswp:2023-04&r=mac |
| By: | Colin J. Hottman; Ryan Monarch |
| Abstract: | Differences in consumption expenditure patterns across demographic groups mean that international shocks can affect such groups very differently. In this paper, we construct import price indexes for U.S. consumer groups that vary by age, race, sex, education, and urban status. Some groups, such as Black consumers and college graduates, experienced significantly higher import price inflation over the 1996-2018 period compared to other groups, such as high school dropouts, rural consumers, and consumers over age 60. We find that the sensitivity of demographic groups to international shocks varies widely, implying that movements in the dollar and foreign producer price inflation, both during our sample and during the Covid-19 pandemic, produced significant, disparate effects on import price inflation rates – and total inflation – across these groups. |
| Keywords: | import price inflation, exchange-rate passthrough, inequality |
| JEL: | D12 E31 F31 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:23-13&r=mac |
| By: | Mathur, Aakriti (Bank of England); Naylor, Matthew (Bank of England and University of Oxford); Rajan, Aniruddha (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | Macroprudential policies have been shown to be beneficial during booms but there is limited evidence on how well they operate during periods of stress. Using a difference‑in‑differences empirical strategy we test whether regulatory capital buffers, a key component of the Basel III reforms, helped to support lending provision by UK banks through Covid‑19. To identify credit supply effects, we exploit data on the universe of UK mortgages, which were outside the scope of government guaranteed lending schemes. We find that more constrained banks defended their capital surpluses to a greater extent during the pandemic, and did so by maintaining higher loan rates, lower loan values, and tighter terms on riskier lending. In contrast, banks receiving greater capital relief from the cut to the UK countercyclical capital buffer during the pandemic maintained more stable capital ratios, lending provision and risk‑taking capacity. Our results suggest regulatory buffers may be less usable than intended, but buffer releases can dampen these unintended consequences. |
| Keywords: | Banks; capital regulation; lending; macroprudential policy; Covid-19 |
| JEL: | E58 G21 G28 G51 |
| Date: | 2023–01–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:1011&r=mac |
| By: | Xuefan, Pan (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | I conduct content analysis and extent the existing models of analysing the reaction of the stock market and foreign currency markets to the release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statements and meeting minutes. The tone changes and uncertainty level of the monetary policy communication are constructed using the dictionary-based word-count approach at the whole document level. I further apply the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) algorithm to investigate the different impacts of topics in the meeting minutes. High-frequency data is used as the analysis is an event study. I find that the tone change and uncertainty level have limited explanation power on the magnitude of the effect of the release of FOMC documents especially statements on the financial market. The communication from FOMC is more informative for the market during the zero lower bound period, compared to the whole sample period. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy ;Communication ; Text Mining JEL Classification: E52 ; E58 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:wrkesp:43&r=mac |
| By: | Grahame Johnson |
| Abstract: | The economic lockdowns that began in March 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic led to an unparalleled level of financial market disruption. Investors sought liquidity by selling financial assets and drawing down loans and credit lines. The speed, scale and one-way nature of these transactions caused an almost complete breakdown of market functioning. In response, the Bank of Canada launched 10 extraordinary programs, 9 of which had never been used before, to restore market functioning. As market conditions improved, 9 of the 10 programs were wound down. One, the Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program, was continued and transitioned into a monetary policy tool. In general, most of the programs were well designed and effectively executed—an impressive achievement given the circumstances under which they were conceived, developed and deployed. The extreme level of uncertainty and the magnitude of the downside risks to economic and financial activity warranted an aggressive response. Going forward, however, several areas exist where program design and implementation could be changed if these programs ever need to be used again. Overall, the design and implementation recommendations for future interventions focus on the need to ensure the programs are appropriately structured, in terms of both size and duration, for the financial and economic circumstances. Given the speed with which the outlook can change, program parameters must be flexible, and the Bank must be nimble in making the necessary adjustments. |
| Keywords: | Coronavirus disease (COVID-19); Financial markets; Financial stability |
| JEL: | D47 E41 E5 G01 G14 G23 H12 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:23-6&r=mac |
| By: | Enrique G. Mendoza (University of Pennsylvania and NBER); Vincenzo Quadrini (University of Southern California and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | The sharp, secular decline in the world real interest rate of the past thirty years suggests that the surge in global demand for financial assets outpaced the growth in their supply. We argue that this phenomenon was driven by: (i) faster growth in emerging markets, (ii) changes in the financial structure of both emerging and advanced economies, and (iii) changes in demand and supply of public debt issued by advanced economies. We then showthat the low-interest-rate environment made the world economy more vulnerable to financial crises. These findings are the quantitative predictions of a two-region model in which privately-issued financial assets (i.e., inside money) provide productive services but can be defaulted on. |
| Date: | 2023–03–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:23-003&r=mac |
| By: | Andreeva, Desislava (European Central Bank); Coman, Andra (European Central Bank); Everett, Mary (Central Bank of Ireland); Froemel, Maren (Bank of England); Ho, Kelvin (Hong Kong Monetary Authority); Lloyd, Simon (Bank of England); Meunier, Baptiste (Banque de France and European Central Bank); Pedrono, Justine (Banque de France); Reinhardt, Dennis (Bank of England); Wong, Andrew (Hong Kong Monetary Authority); Wong, Eric (Hong Kong Monetary Authority); Żochowski, Dawid (European Central Bank) |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of negative interest rate policies (NIRP) on the transmission of monetary policy through cross-border lending. Using bank-level data from international financial centres (IFCs) – the United Kingdom, Hong Kong and Ireland – we examine how NIRP in the economies where banks have their headquarters influences cross-border lending from financial-centre affiliates. We find that NIRP impairs the bank-lending channel for cross‑border lending to non-bank sectors, especially for those banks that have only a weak deposit base in IFCs – and are thus relatively more exposed to NIRP in their headquarters. Using euro-area data, including bank-level data from France, we find that NIRP does not influence overall cross-border lending from banks’ headquarters’ economies, but NIRP does impair lending to financial sectors based in IFCs. This impairment is stronger for banks with a large deposit base in headquarter economies exposed to NIRP. |
| Keywords: | Bank lending; cross-border lending; international financial centres; monetary policy; negative interest rates; risk-taking. |
| JEL: | E52 F34 F36 F42 G21 |
| Date: | 2023–01–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:1010&r=mac |
| By: | Elliott, David (Bank of England); Meisenzah, Ralf R (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago); Peydró, José-Luis (Imperial College London, ICREA-Universitat Pompeu Fabra-CREI-Barcelona GSE, and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We show that nonbank lenders act as global shock absorbers from US monetary policy spillovers. For identification, we exploit loan‑level data from the global syndicated lending market and US monetary policy surprises. We find that when US monetary policy tightens, nonbanks increase dollar credit supply to non‑US corporate borrowers, relative to banks. This partially mitigates the total reduction in dollar lending. The substitution is stronger for emerging market borrowers, riskier borrowers, and borrowers in countries subject to stronger capital inflow restrictions. Results suggest that our findings are not driven by borrower‑lender matching, zombie lending, or destabilising lending. Moreover, the credit substitution has real effects, as firms with existing relationships with nonbank lenders increase total debt, investment, and employment relative to firms without such relationships. Our findings suggest that having more diversified funding providers (nonbanks in addition to banks) reduces the volatility in capital flows and economic activity associated with the global financial cycle. |
| Keywords: | Nonbank lending; international monetary policy spillovers; global financial cycle; banks; US dollar funding for non-US firms |
| JEL: | E50 F34 F42 G21 G23 |
| Date: | 2023–01–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:1012&r=mac |
| By: | Liu, Lu (The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | Long-term fixed-rate mortgage contracts protect households against interest rate risk, yet most countries have relatively short interest rate fixation lengths. Using administrative data from the UK, the paper finds that the choice of fixation length tracks the life-cycle decline of credit risk in the mortgage market: the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio decreases and collateral coverage improves over the life of the loan due to principal repayment and house price appreciation. High-LTV borrowers, who pay large initial credit spreads, trade off their insurance motive against reducing credit spreads over time using shorter-term contracts. To quantify demand for long-term contracts, I develop a life-cycle model of optimal mortgage fixation choice. With baseline house price growth and interest rate risk, households prefer shorter-term contracts at high LTV levels, and longer-term contracts once LTV is sufficiently low, in line with the data. The mechanism helps explain reduced and heterogeneous demand for long-term mortgage contracts. |
| Keywords: | Mortgage choice; house prices; credit risk; interest rate risk; household risk management; household finance. |
| JEL: | D15 E43 G21 G22 G50 G52 |
| Date: | 2023–01–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:1009&r=mac |
| By: | Joseph Kopecky Author-1-Name-First: Joseph Author-1-Name-Last: Kopecky (Trinity College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | A large literature has reopened the secular stagnation hypothesis, first proposed near the end of the great depression as a warning for anemic growth resulting from long run trends in population aging. In this paper, I explore the relationship between population age structure and growth in: investment, consumption and output, in a long run panel of advanced economies. The evidence is largely consistent with proposed channels for secular stagnation. Investment growth, in its level and as a fraction of GDP, appears much stronger in young populations, while facing demographic headwinds in older economies. Consumption and output growth are positively associated with late career workers, with a negative relationship coming from both young and old dependents. Consistent with the recent secular stagnation literature, interest rate channels appear to have strong interactions with population age structures. I find that for investment and output growth, estimated impacts of age-structure are more pronounced in low interest rate environments, with high rates mitigating some of their effect. |
| Keywords: | Secularstagnation, Demographictransition, populationaging, economicgrowth |
| JEL: | J11 E20 B22 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0523&r=mac |
| By: | Carlos Gustavo Machicado S. (Investigador Senior de INESAD) |
| Abstract: | Este documento realiza una revisión exhaustiva de la literatura, a nivel microeconómico, sobre intervenciones principalmente conductuales destinadas a promover el ahorro voluntario para la vejez (jubilación). Los diferentes mecanismos y/o herramientas que se describen han sido pensados para promover este tipo de ahorro especialmente en trabajadores independientes y de bajos ingresos. Por tanto, los resultados pueden ser fácilmente extrapolados a trabajadores del sector agrícola tradicional, que se caracterizan precisamente por ser independientes, de ingresos bajos y volátiles y por tener una estructural laboral -en la mayoría de las veces- familiar. |
| Keywords: | Ahorro, ahorro del hogar, jubilación, revisión de la literatura. |
| JEL: | E21 D14 J26 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adv:wpaper:202202&r=mac |
| By: | Franz Hamann (Banco de la Republica); Juan Camilo Mendez-Vizcaino (Banco de la Republica); Enrique G. Mendoza (University of Pennsylvania and NBER); Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) |
| Abstract: | Emerging economies that are large oil producers have sizable external debt, their country risk rises when oil prices fall, and several of them have defaulted at least once since 1979. Moreover, while oil and non-oil output reduce country risk on impact and in the long-run, oil reserves reduce it marginally on impact but increase it in the long-run. We propose a model of sovereign default and oil extraction consistent with these observations. The sovereign manages oil reserves strategically to make default less painful by altering the value of autarky, and hence its sustainable debt falls. All else equal, default is less likely in states in which reserves or oil prices are higher, or non-oil GDP is lower, but the equilibrium dynamics of reserves and country risk in response to oil-price shocks switch from negatively correlated on impact to positively correlated for several years. |
| Keywords: | Country Risk, Oil Prices, Oil Reserves, Sovereign Debt. |
| JEL: | E44 F4 F34 G12 H63 L72 |
| Date: | 2023–03–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:23-004&r=mac |
| By: | Frédéric Dufourt (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Lisa Kerdelhué (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France); Océane Piétri (University of Konstanz) |
| Abstract: | We revisit the canonical policy of eliminating capital taxation by increasing labor taxation in a endogenous-labor, heterogeneous-agent model with income and wealth heterogeneity, when the government is subject to a strict (per-period) balanced-budget constraint. By contrast with its non-budget neutral equivalent-associated with a constant tax rate over time and a permanent increase in the level of public debt-we show that the obtained endogenous path for the labor tax rate is sharply increasing in the initial period and decreasing over time. The policy then generates a deeper recession in the short-run and a greater expansion in the long-run, as well as a smaller decline in wealth inequality associated with a reduced incentive to save for precautionary motives. Overall, the policy still generates significant losses in average welfare. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Policy, Capital Tax Cut, Tax Composition, Heterogeneous Agents, Wealth Redistribution |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04000531&r=mac |
| By: | Kazumichi Iwasa (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN); Kazuo Nishimura (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration and Center for Computational Social Science, Kobe University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the properties of a two-country dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model that allows international borrowing and lending. As is well known, international trade patterns become undecidable when international borrowing and lending is allowed. To avoid this, we assume a consumable capital good to be nontradable. A key feature of our model is the existence of a continuum of steady state levels of capital stocks, which enables us to examine how the initial amount of physical capital and assets in each country affects the amount of capital and assets in the steady state. |
| Keywords: | Two-country model; International borrowing and lending; Continuum of steady states |
| JEL: | E13 E21 F11 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2023-08&r=mac |
| By: | Thanh Phan, Phuong; Nguyen, Phong Thanh |
| Abstract: | In the current market of integration and globalization, the competition between engineering and construction companies is increasing. Construction contractors can improve their competitiveness by evaluating and selecting qualified personnel for the construction engineering manager position for their company’s civil engineering projects. However, most personnel evaluation and selection models in the construction industry rely on qualitative techniques, which leads to unsuitable decisions. To overcome this problem, this paper presents evaluation criteria and proposes a new model for selecting construction managers based on the evaluation based on the distance from the average solution approach (EDASA). The research results showed that EDASA has many strengths, such as solving the problem faster when the number of evaluation criteria or the number of alternatives is increased. |
| Keywords: | construction manager; construction project; engineering management; EDASA; resource management; personnel selection; project management |
| JEL: | C80 E24 J24 L74 M12 M54 N6 O15 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116812&r=mac |
| By: | Paul-Olivier Klein (Laboratoire de Recherche Magellan - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Lyon); Rima Turk-Ariss (International Monetary Fund (IMF)) |
| Abstract: | Banks argue that holding higher capital will have adverse implications on their lending activities and thereby on economic growth. Yet, the effect of a stronger capital base on economic growth remains largely unsettled. We argue that better capitalized banks improve financial stability conditions and, in dire times, they are able to sustain credit to the economy thereby containing adverse macroeconomic implications. Using various methods, we test for the presence and strength of a financial stability channel and a bank lending channel by drawing evidence from 47 advanced and developing countries over close to two decades. We find that higher capital ratios improve financial stability and help sustain bank lending, ultimately exerting a positive influence on economic activity. These effects on real GDP growth are economically significant, reaching up to 1¼ percentage points for each percentage point acceleration in capital. Our main results are robust to various sensitivity checks, supporting the conclusion that safer banking systems do not bridle economic activity. |
| Keywords: | Bank capital, Financial stability, Bank lending, Economic growth |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03955630&r=mac |
| By: | Benjamin Tshisuaka Kongolo (Université de Kinshasa, Université Pédagogique Nationale) |
| Abstract: | This article has set itself the objective of evaluating the effectiveness of the various measures implemented by the Congolese authorities to combat the negative effects of the covid 19 health crisis on the Congolese economy. To do so, the study analyzed the various measures implemented by the authorities and the objectives for which these measures were taken. It has been observed that the authorities have applied monetary and budgetary policies with the aim of stabilizing and reviving the Congolese economy which has fallen under the effects of the covid 19 pandemic. It is found after analysis that the various measures taken by the authorities have been effective because they have succeeded in stabilizing the exchange rate and inflation and in reviving the economy. This recovery was manifested by the increase in economic growth observed in 2021. |
| Abstract: | Le présent article s'est fixé comme objectif d'évalue l'efficacité des différente mesures mises en œuvre par les autorités congolaises pour lutter contre les effets négatifs de la crise sanitaire à covid 19 sur l'économie congolaise. Pour y faire, l'étude a analysé les différentes mesures mises en œuvre par les autorités et les objectifs auxquels ces mesures ont été prises. Il a été observé que les autorités ont appliqué les politiques monétaires et budgétaires dans le but de stabiliser et de relancer l'économie congolaise sombrée sous les effets de la pandémie à covid 19. Il est constaté après analyse que les différentes mesures prises par les autorités ont été efficace car elles ont réussi à stabiliser le taux de change et inflation et à relancer l'économie. Cette relance s'est manifestée par l'augmentation de la croissance économique observée en 2021. |
| Keywords: | Covid 19, stabilization policy, recovery policy, inflation, exchange rate, economic growth., Covid 19 Politique de la stabilisation politique de la relance inflation taux de change croissance économique Covid 19 stabilization policy recovery policy inflation exchange rate economic growth, Covid 19, Politique de la stabilisation, politique de la relance, inflation, taux de change, croissance économique Covid 19, stabilization policy, recovery policy, exchange rate, economic growth |
| Date: | 2023–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03953332&r=mac |
| By: | Dogan, Berna; Tekgüç, Hasan; Yeldan, A. Erinç |
| Abstract: | The limited success of employment-based social protection measures under the diverging patterns of post-covid recovery rekindled the interest in a social policy framework known as the Basic Income (BI) support. The goal of this study is to assess the macroeconomic feasibility of a BI policy for Turkey with a green design. We test the potential of the BI program using five alternative scenarios distinguished by coverage of the receivers and their respective fiscal costs. We then employ an applied general equilibrium model to analyze the economy-wide effects and welfare implications for Turkey in the long-run through 2030. The dynamic macro results of our modeling effort indicate that BI has the potential for a significant social welfare enhancing impact for Turkey; yet, pursuing the BI mandate without any compensating fiscal consolidation is not manageable in the medium to longer run. To achieve the warranted policy space we evaluate the macroeconomic and welfare effects of an alternative fiscal program comprising of (i) carbon tax levied on the fossil fuel producing industry, (ii) corporate income taxation policy reform that aims at expanding the revenue base and consolidation of the fiscal space of the government, and (iii) re-structuring of public consumption expenditures by introducing rationality and efficiency in the structure of fiscal expenditures. Our model solutions reveal that a green BI scenario not only achieves a higher GDP and welfare in the medium to long run, but also helps Turkey to reduce its carbon emissions in line with the global policy challenges of a green recovery. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333496&r=mac |
| By: | Ioannou, Demosthenes; Pérez, Javier J.; Balteanu, Irina; Kataryniuk, Ivan; Geeroms, Hans; Vansteenkiste, Isabel; Weber, Pierre-François; Attinasi, Maria Grazia; Buysse, Kristel; Campos, Rodolfo; Clancy, Daragh; Essers, Dennis; Faccia, Donata; Freier, Maximilian; Gerinovics, Rinalds; Khalil, Makram; Kosterink, Patrick; Mancini, Michele; Manrique, Marta; McQuade, Peter; Molitor, Philippe; Pulst, Daniela; Timini, Jacopo; Van Schaik, Ilona; Valenta, Vilém; Vergara Caffarelli, Filippo; Viani, Francesca; Viilmann, Natalja; Almeida, Ana M.; Alonso, Daniel; Bencivelli, Lorenzo; Borgogno, Oscar; Borrallo, Fructuoso; Cuadro-Sáez, Lucía; Di Stefano, Enrica; Esser, Andreas; García-Lecuona, María; Habib, Maurizio; Jeudy, Bruno-Philippe; Lájer, Andrés; Le Gallo, Florian; Martonosi, Ádám; Millaruelo, Antonio; Miola, Andrea; Négrin, Pauline; Zangrandi, Michele Savini; Strobel, Felix; Tylko-Tylczynska, Kalina Paula |
| Abstract: | Over the past decade, geopolitical developments - and the policy responses to these by major economies around the world - have challenged economic openness and the process of globalisation, with implications for the economic environment in which central banks operate. The return of war to Europe and the energy shock triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are the latest in a series of episodes that have led the European Union (EU) to develop its Open Strategic Autonomy (OSA) agenda. This Report is a broad attempt to take stock of these developments from a central banking perspective. It analyses the EU's economic interdependencies and their implications for trade and finance, with a focus on strategically important dimensions such as energy, critical raw materials, food, foreign direct investment and financial market infrastructures. Against this background, the Report discusses relevant aspects of the EU's OSA policy agenda which extend to trade, industrial and state aid measures, as well as EU initiatives to strengthen and protect the internal market and further develop Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The paper highlights some of the policy choices and trade-offs that emerge in this context and possible implications for the ECB's monetary policy and other policies. JEL Classification: F0, F10, F30, F4, F5, F45, E42, L5, Q43 |
| Keywords: | capital flows, European Central Bank, European Economic and Monetary Union, financial market infrastructures, financial stability, geoeconomics, geopolitics, globalisation, global value chains, industrial policy, international trade, monetary policy, multilateralism, Open Strategic Autonomy |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2023311&r=mac |
| By: | Dautović, Ernest; Gambacorta, Leonardo; Reghezza, Alessio |
| Abstract: | At the onset of the Covid-19 outbreak, central banks and supervisors introduced dividend restrictions as a new policy instrument aimed at supporting lending to the real economy and strengthening banks’ capacity to absorb losses. In this paper we estimate the impact of the ECB’s dividend recommendation on bank lending and risk-taking. To address identification issues, we rely on credit registry data and a direct measure that captures variation in compliance with the recommendation across banks in the euro area. The analysis disentangles the confounding effects stemming from the wide range of monetary and fiscal policies that supported credit during the Covid-19 downturn and investigates their interaction with the dividend recommendation. We find that dividend restrictions have been an effective policy in supporting financially constrained firms, adding capital space to banks, and limiting procyclical behaviour. The effects on lending are larger for small and medium enterprises and for firms operating in Covid-19 vulnerable sectors. At the same time, we do not find evidence of a significant increase in lending to riskier borrowers and ”zombie” firms. JEL Classification: E5, E51, G18, G21 |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, credit supply, dividend restrictions, European Central Bank, supervisory policy |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20232796&r=mac |
| By: | Ivo Maes (Chaire Robert Triffin, Université catholique de Louvain & ICHEC Brussels Management School) |
| Abstract: | In this paper the vision of the “Young” and “Elder” Lamfalussy on the origins of instability in capitalist economies will be contrasted. The young Lamfalussy found the origins of instability in medium-term cumulative processes in the real sector of the economy, very much inspired by the vicious circles in the British and Belgian economies in the postwar period, in contrast to the virtuous growth processes of the German and Italian economies. The Elder Lamfalussy focused on financial innovations and the short-term myopic behavior of financial markets, very much inspired by his experience of the Latin American debt build-up and ensuing crisis in the early 1980s. The Euro area crisis showed the importance of both processes, as it was the consequence of both short-term myopic behavior in financial markets and medium-term cumulative processes in the real sector. |
| Keywords: | Lamfalussy, economic instability, economic cycles, financial innovations, Latin American debt crisis, Euro area crisis. |
| JEL: | A11 B22 B32 E3 E F02 G10 N10 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:202303-436&r=mac |
| By: | Nicolás Garrido (Universidad Andrés Bello); Jeffrey Morales (Pontificia Universidad Católica Chile) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the effect of government spending on income distribution in Chile for 2016 using a multiplier model with the Social Accounting Matrix. The results indicate that increasing fiscal expenditure has a regressive effect on the income share of households in the richest quintile and widens the income gap between the two poorest quintiles and the third and fourth quintiles. When the effect of fiscal expenditure is measured by its nominal impact, households with the highest income receive approximately ten times more income than those with the lowest income. Thus, the regressivity of the income share of the richest households conceals an unequal distribution of the nominal income generated by the fiscal expenditure. Using counterfactual simulations, we suggested that fiscal expenditures could become more equalitarian through policies affecting the distribution of labor payments. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Expenditure; Fiscal Redistribution; Income Distribution; Social Accounting Matrix; Chile; Multiplier Model |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:226&r=mac |
| By: | Goes, Iasmin |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic variables like unemployment, inflation, trade, or GDP are not set in stone: they are preliminary estimates that are constantly revised by statistical agencies. These data revisions, or data vintages, often provide conflicting information about the size of a country's economy or its level of development, reducing our confidence in established findings. Would researchers come to different conclusions if they used different vintages? To answer this question, I survey all articles published in a top political science journal between 2005 and 2020. I replicate three prominent articles and find that the use of different vintages can lead to different statistical results, calling into question the robustness of otherwise rigorous empirical research. These findings have two practical implications. First, researchers should always be transparent about their data sources and vintages. Second, researchers should be more modest about the precision and accuracy of their point estimates, since these estimates can mask large measurement errors. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:23&r=mac |
| By: | Gao, Mingze; Hasan, Iftekhar; Qiu, Buhui; Wu, Eliza |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes an early-warning bank risk measure based on the syndicate concentration of recent syndicated loans that a bank participates in. At the bank level, higher values of the measure predict greater risks (i.e., loan loss provisions, idiosyncratic return volatility, default probability, and frequency of lawsuits) and lower profitability at least three years ahead, especially for opaque and complex banks. Banks failing the Federal Reserve's forward-looking stress tests subsequently exhibit a reduction in the syndicate concentration measure. At the aggregate level, higher values of the measure predict both greater financial sector risks and economic slowdowns measured by private-sector investment, business activity, total factor productivity, industrial production, and gross domestic product. |
| Keywords: | syndicate concentration, early-warning, bank risks, financial sector risks, economic slowdowns |
| JEL: | G21 E02 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:42023&r=mac |
| By: | Kornilia Vikelidou (Aristotle University of Thessaloniki); Athanasios Tagkalakis (University of Patras) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the current state of play of the Banking Union project aiming at unveiling the weaknesses and gaps of this still incomplete framework. In this context, the implementation so far of the Banking Union legislation sheds light on the vulnerabilities concerning supervisory change, transparency, trust and a proper allocation of bank failure costs since all these criteria are deemed as essential contributing factors to promoting financial stability at European level. Taking into consideration the latest steps towards completing the Banking Union framework until June 2022, this paper aims at depicting the proposed leeway potentially capable to align resilience and flexibility with the view of mitigating any persisting shock-amplifying factor against financial stability. |
| Keywords: | Banking Union; Single Supervisory Mechanism; Single Resolution Mechanism; European Deposit Insurance Scheme |
| JEL: | G21 G28 O52 E42 F33 F42 |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bog:wpaper:303&r=mac |
| By: | Pierre Bachas (World Bank Research); Lucie Gadenne (Queen Mary University); Anders Jensen (Harvard Kennedy School and NBER) |
| Abstract: | Can taxes on consumption redistribute in developing countries? Contrary to consensus, we show that taxing consumption is progressive once we account for informal consumption. Using household expenditure surveys in 32 countries we proxy for informal consumption using the type of store where purchases occur. We establish that the budget share spent in informal stores steeply declines with income, so that richer households pay a substantially larger share of their income in taxes. Our findings imply that the widespread policy of exempting food from taxation is hard to justify on equity grounds in low-income countries. |
| Keywords: | Budget Surveys, Inequality, Informality, Redistribution, Taxes. |
| JEL: | E26 H21 H23 |
| Date: | 2022–12–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:945&r=mac |
| By: | H. GENIN (Insee); S. SCOTT (Insee) |
| Abstract: | En s'appuyant sur des travaux entamés à la Commission européenne (Hristov et Thum-Thysen, 2021a) et à l'aide des enquêtes mensuelles de conjoncture auprès des entreprises, cette étude propose un indicateur individuel et mensuel de la rétention de main-d’oeuvre permettant l'étude de ce comportement dans l'industrie française entre 2004 et 2021. Selon cet indicateur, au moins un salarié de l'industrie sur dix travaille dans une entreprise retenant de la main-d’oeuvre chaque mois de la période d'étude. Cette part augmente durant les crises, particulièrement lors de la crise sanitaire où elle atteint un salarié sur deux. Elle est très volatile dans les matériels de transport et à l'opposé varie très peu dans le secteur agro-alimentaire. Les petites entreprises se distinguent quant à elles de deux façons : elles sont surreprésentées parmi les entreprises industrielles ne retenant jamais leur main d’oeuvre, ainsi que parmi celles la retenant le plus souvent. Les entreprises déclarant que leur production est limitée par un manque de main-d’oeuvre ou de matériel sont moins concernées par la rétention que les autres, alors que celles dont la production est limitée par un manque de commandes retiennent leur main-d’oeuvre le plus souvent. Enfin, la confrontation de l'indicateur aux évolutions réelles des chiffres d'affaires et des effectifs des entreprises montre que la majorité des entreprises classées en rétention baissent tout de même leurs effectifs, mais que ces baisses sont moindres que celles des entreprises ne retenant pas leur main-d’oeuvre quand elles sont susceptibles de le faire. |
| Keywords: | rétention de main-d’oeuvre, activité économique, enquêtes de conjoncture, entreprises industrielles |
| JEL: | D22 E32 J20 L60 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nse:doctra:2022-15&r=mac |
| By: | Adler, Martin; Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo; Džaja, Tomislav; Manzanares, Andrés; Metra, Matteo; Vocalelli, Giorgio |
| Abstract: | In implementing its monetary policy, the ECB conducts collateralised credit operations with banks. The bulk of the financial risks involved in these collateralised credit operations are mitigated primarily by the valuation haircuts imposed on the mobilised collateral. Since the establishment of the euro in January 1999, valuation haircuts have been formulated mainly on the basis of risk management considerations and have been systematically calibrated with a very low level of risk tolerance. However, their implied risk tolerance may sometimes be used as a monetary policy stance lever, as clearly illustrated when the ECB decided to reduce haircuts to improve funding conditions for the real economy during the outset of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In addition, the ECB ensures that financial market developments warranting general methodological changes are incorporated into the calibration of valuation haircuts adequately and in good time. In a particularly challenging economic environment, the ECB has also recently committed to ensuring that climate change risks are considered when calibrating the valuation haircuts applied to corporate bonds. Against this background, the purpose of this paper is to provide an overview and explanation of the main guiding rules, as well as explaining some of the statistical methods currently employed by the ECB when formulating valuation haircuts. Keywords: monetary policy implementation, risk control framework of credit operations, valuation haircuts JEL Classification: D02, E58, G32, Q54 |
| Keywords: | monetary policy implementation, risk control framework of credit operations, valuation haircuts |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2023312&r=mac |
| By: | Christian Fons-Rosen (University of California in Merced); Pau Roldan-Blanco (Bank of Spain); Tom Schmitz (Queen Mary University of London and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | Innovative startups are frequently acquired by large incumbent firms. On the one hand, these acquisitions provide an incentive for startup creation and may transfer ideas to more efficient users. On the other hand, incumbents might acquire startups just to “kill” their ideas, and acquisitions can erode incumbents’ own innovation incentives. Our paper aims to assess the net effect of these forces. To do so, we build an endogenous growth model with heterogeneous firms and acquisitions, and calibrate its parameters by matching micro-level evidence on startup acquisitions and patenting in the United States. Our calibrated model implies that acquisitions raise the startup rate, but lower incumbents’ own innovation as well as the percentage of implemented startup ideas. The negative forces are slightly stronger. Therefore, a ban on startup acquisitions would increase growth by 0.03 percentage points per year, and raise welfare by 1.8%. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: Acquisitions, Innovation, Productivity growth, Firm dynamics. |
| JEL: | O30 O41 E22 |
| Date: | 2022–12–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:944&r=mac |
| By: | Marcus Biermann; Kilian Huber |
| Abstract: | We show that multinational firms transmit shocks across countries through their internal capital markets. We study a credit supply shock to parent firms in Germany. International affiliates outside Germany supported their parents through internal lending, became financially constrained themselves, and experienced lower real growth. We find that managers were "Darwinist" with respect to international affiliates but "Socialist" in the home country, that internal capital markets transmitted the credit shock more strongly than a non-financial shock, and that access to developed credit markets attenuated the real effects. The total real impact of shock transmission through multinationals on foreign economies was large. |
| JEL: | E4 F2 F3 G01 G2 G3 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31061&r=mac |
| By: | Dipti Rani Hazra; Md. Shah Naoaj; Mohammed Mahinur Alam; Abdul Kader |
| Abstract: | Inspired by the recent debate on the macroeconomic implications of the new bank regulatory standards known as Basel III, we tried to find out in this study that the impact of Basel III liquidity and capital requirements in Bangladesh proposed by Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS, 2010a). A small set of macro variables, using a sample of 22 private commercial banks operating in Bangladesh for the period of 2010-2014, are used to estimate long-run relationships among the variables. The macroeconomic variables are included The profitability of banks, GDP, banks' lending to private sector, Net Stable Funding Ratio, Tier 1 capital Ratio, Interest rate spread, real interest rate. The cost is quantified using Driscoll and Kraay panel data models with fixed effect. Impact of higher capital and liquidity requirement on Interest rate spread and lending to private sector of banks were considered as the cost to the economy as a whole whereas impact of higher capital and liquidity requirement on profitability of banks(ROE) was considered as the cost of banks. Here it is found that, the interest rate level is positively affected by the tighter liquidity and capital requirements which driven toward lessen of the private sector lending of banks. The return on equity of banks varies negatively with the liquidity and capital. The economic costs are considerably below the estimated positive benefit that the reform should have by reducing the probability of banking crises and the associated banking losses (BCBS, 2010b). |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.11414&r=mac |
| By: | Suarez-Cuesta, David; Latorre, Maria C.; Lawrence, Robert Z. |
| Abstract: | We offer the first analysis of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) using a Computable General Equilibrium approach, to the best of our knowledge. We use The Enormous Regional Model (TERM) for the U.S. economy, which allows us to introduce regional-level shocks and offers macroeconomic results, industry-level results and disaggregated results for ten different occupations (skilled and unskilled). We evaluate the short run effects of the increase in government demand for Construction and the long run effects of the stimulus once the investments rise the country’s physical capital stock. The debt increase caused by the upfront investment can be financed through foreign debt (i.e., a trade deficit) or through reduced national savings. We evaluate the impact under both scenarios, considering that this contrast between national borrowing and foreign borrowing can also be interpreted as a differential impact between short and long-term debt maturity periods. The accumulation of an important debt, which has to be paid back in a given point of time in the future, tends to translate into abrupt production adjustments and even output contraction in some sectors. By contrast, a more regular and evenly distributed debt service tends to facilitate a strong boost for production across all sectors and workers categories, with unskilled workers (those without a university degree) benefiting the most. The plan unleashes a general expansion of wages and employment across most occupations, with only a few exceptions remaining nearly unaffected. In general, although most workers categories are better off, unskilled workers benefit more than skilled ones in terms of the number of jobs created and wages. In addition, labor increases its share while capital slightly diminishes it in total GDP. |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital, Public Economics |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333457&r=mac |
| By: | Hilde C. Bjørnland; Yoosoon Chang; Jamie L. Cross |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new mixed vector autoregression (MVAR) model to examine the relationship between aggregate time series and functional variables in a multivariate setting. The model facilitates a re-examination of the oil-stock price nexus by estimating the effects of demand and supply shocks from the global market for crude oil on the entire distribution of U.S. stock returns since the late 1980s. We show that the MVAR effectively extracts information from the returns distribution that is more relevant for understanding the oil-stock price nexus beyond simply looking at the first few moments. Using novel functional impulse response functions (FIRFs), we find that oil market demand and supply shocks tend to increase returns, reduce volatility, and have an asymmetric effect on the returns distribution as a whole. In a value-at-risk (VaR) analysis we also find that the oil market contains important information that reduces expected loss, and that the response of VaR to the oil market demand and supply shocks has changed over time. |
| Keywords: | Oil market, stock market, oil-stock price nexus, functional VAR |
| JEL: | C13 C32 C58 Q41 Q43 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2023-18&r=mac |
| By: | Fakhrabadi, Mahnaz (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Sandal, Leif K. (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates a multi-periodic channel optimization facing uncertain, price dependent, and dynamic demand. The picture of the market uncertainty is incomplete, and only the price and time-dependent mean and standard deviation are known and may depend on the price history. The actual demand distribution itself is unknown as is typically the case in real world problems. An algorithm finding the optimized decentralized channel equilibrium is developed when the downstream member optimizes her expected profit stream by a distributional-robust approach, and the upstream member (leader) considers it as the follower’s reaction function. The algorithm allows for strategic decisions whereby the current demand is scaled by the previous price setting. |
| Keywords: | Multi-Periodic problem; Stochasticity; Stackelberg Game; Subgame Perfect Distributional-Robust Approach; Supply Chain Management; Price-History Dependent Dynamic Demand |
| JEL: | C61 C62 C63 C72 C73 D81 |
| Date: | 2023–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2023_004&r=mac |
| By: | Agustin Velasquez |
| Abstract: | The labor share has been declining in the United States, and especially so in manufacturing. This paper investigates the role of capital accumulation and market power in explaining this decline. I first estimate the production function of 21 manufacturing sectors along time series and including time-varying markups. The elasticities of substitution for most sectors are estimated below one, implying that capital deepening cannot explain the labor share decline. I then track the long-run evolution of the labor share using the estimated production technology parameters. I decompose aggregate labor share changes into sector re-weights, capital-labor substitution, and market power effects. I find that the increase in market power, as reported in recent studies, can account for, at least, 76 percent of the labor share decline in manufacturing. Absent the rise in market power, the labor share would have remained constant in the second half of the 20th century. |
| Keywords: | Labor share; elasticity of substitution; capital accumulation; market power; labor share decline; market power effects; capital-labor substitution; market power narrative; markup series; capital share; Manufacturing; Income |
| Date: | 2023–02–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/032&r=mac |
| By: | Esther Ann Boler; Andreas Moxnes; Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe |
| Abstract: | This paper makes use of a reform that allowed firms to use patents as stand-alone collateral, to estimate the magnitude of collateral constraints and to quantify the aggregate impact of these constraints on misallocation and productivity. Using matched firm-bank data for Norway, we find that bank borrowing increased for firms affected by the reform relative to the control group. We also find an increase in the capital stock, employment and innovation as well as equity funding. We interpret the results through the lens of a model of monopolistic competition with potentially collateral constrained heterogeneous firms. Parameterizing the model using well-identified moments from the reduced form exercise, we find quantitatively large gains in output per worker in the sectors in the economy dominated by constrained (and intangible-intensive) firms. The gains are primarily driven by capital deepening, whereas within-industry misallocation plays a smaller role. |
| Keywords: | intangible capital, patents, credit constraints, misallocation, productivity |
| Date: | 2023–03–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1905&r=mac |
| By: | Fatouh, Mahmoud (Bank of England); Giansante, Simone (University of Palermo) |
| Abstract: | We model the evolution of stylised bank loan portfolios to assess the impact of IFRS 9 and US GAAP expected loss model (ECL) on the cyclicality of loan write-off losses, loan loss provisions (LLPs) and capital ratios of banks, relative to the incurred loss model of IAS 39. We focus on the interaction between the changes in LLPs' charges (the flow channel) and stocks (the stock channel) under ECL. Our results show that, when GDP growth does not demonstrate high volatility, ECL model smooths the impact of credit losses on profits and capital resources, reducing the procyclicality of capital and leverage ratios, especially under US GAAP. However, when GDP growth is highly volatile, the large differences in lifetime probabilities of defaults (PDs) between booms and busts cause sharp increases in LLPs in deep downturns, as seen for US banks during the Covid-19 crisis. Volatile GDP growth makes capital and leverage ratios more procyclical, with sharper falls in both ratios in deep downturns under US GAAP, compared to IAS 39. IFRS 9 ECL demonstrates less sensitivity to lifetime PDs fluctuations due to the existence of loan stages, and hence can reduce the procyclicality of capital and leverage ratios, even when GDP is highly volatile. |
| Keywords: | IFRS 9; IAS 39; US GAAP; expected credit loss model; loan loss provisions; cyclicality of bank profits; leverage ratio; risk-weighted assets |
| JEL: | D92 G21 G28 G31 L51 |
| Date: | 2023–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:1013&r=mac |
| By: | Xinyu Li |
| Abstract: | This study rigorously investigates the Keynesian cross model of a national economy with a focus on the dynamic relationship between government spending and economic equilibrium. The model consists of two ordinary differential equations regarding the rate of change of national income and the rate of consumer spending. Three dynamic relationships between national income and government spending are studied. This study aims to classify the stabilities of equilibrium states for the economy by discussing different cases of government spending. Furthermore, the implication of government spending on the national economy is investigated based on phase portraits and bifurcation analysis of the dynamical system in each scenario. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.10835&r=mac |
| By: | Yunyun Wang; Tatsushi Oka; Dan Zhu |
| Abstract: | Vector autoregression is an essential tool in empirical macroeconomics and finance for understanding the dynamic interdependencies among multivariate time series. In this study, we expand the scope of vector autoregression by incorporating a multivariate distributional regression framework and introducing a distributional impulse response function, providing a comprehensive view of dynamic heterogeneity. We propose a straightforward yet flexible estimation method and establish its asymptotic properties under weak dependence assumptions. Our empirical analysis examines the conditional joint distribution of GDP growth and financial conditions in the United States, with a focus on the global financial crisis. Our results show that tight financial conditions lead to a multimodal conditional joint distribution of GDP growth and financial conditions, and easing financial conditions significantly impacts long-term GDP growth, while improving the GDP growth during the global financial crisis has limited effects on financial conditions. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.04994&r=mac |
| By: | Zuo, Xuejin; Peng, Xiujian; Yang, Xin; Yang, Xiaoping; Yue, Han; Wang, Meifeng; Adams, Philip |
| Abstract: | China is experiencing rapid population ageing. The elderly 65 and older accounted for 13.5 per cent of the total population in 2020. It will continue to increase to 40 per cent in 2100. What’s the economic implication of population aging? Most research has focused on the macroeconomic effects of a declining labour force and increasing elderly. There is insufficient research on the changes in demand for goods and services brought about by population ageing. The research on the impact of such changes on the economy under the computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework is even rare. This paper attempts to fill the research gap in this area. Using a dynamic CGE model of the Chinese economy, in the baseline scenario we projected China’s economic growth path over the period of 2019 to 2100. We assumed that there is no change in the age-specific consumption demand even though there is population ageing which is reflected by the declining working-age population and the increasing elderly population. The simulation results revealed that China has to rely on technology improvement and capital stock increases to support its economic growth. The increasing elderly will put high pressure on China’s general government budget balance. Starting with the baseline described above, we constructed a policy scenario that deviated from the baseline due to ageing-induced changes to household and government consumption preferences for education, health and aged care services. With ageing, demand shifts against education and towards health and aged care services. The simulation results show that the effects on the macroeconomy of age-structure driven changes are negligible, even though the changes will affect the industrial outputs and cause small adjustments to economic structure. The increased demand for medical and aged-care services will exceed the decreased demand for education, thus driving up the general government budget deficit. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333484&r=mac |
| By: | Suryawijaya, Tito Wira Eka; Priono, Samuel Adi; Ingsih, Kusni |
| Abstract: | This article aims to explain about the G20 as a form of international cooperation in the world economy and monetary sector. The G20 was formed in 1999 as a form of agreed solution in dealing with the monetary crisis that occurred in 1998. As a result of this incident, there was an understanding that the economic issues of a country cannot be faced alone. Thus, cooperation is needed to solve these problems. For developing and developed countries, the G20 meeting is seen as important as a medium for reviewing and reviewing issues and possible solutions through the forum discussion method. In 2008, Indonesia itself joined the G20 forum after being deemed to have met the criteria as an economic country with a strong foundation and is the only country in Southeast Asia that is a member of the G20. This article then uses a conceptual method to describe how the role of this forum can help restore the global economy and its impact in improving the Indonesian economy during the G20 presidency this year. |
| Date: | 2022–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:8cvjp&r=mac |
| By: | Bernad, Ludovic; Nsengiyumva, Yves; Byinshi, Benjamin; Hakizimana, Naphtal; Santoro, Fabrizio |
| Abstract: | Consumers in Africa increasingly pay for their purchases through mobile money, especially since the pandemic. These transactions are known as digital merchant payments. Rwandan consumers can choose between using standard mobile money services or a specific service only for digital merchant payments – MoMo Pay. Digital payments of any kind have the potential to improve tax compliance, because they imply digital data trails and better record keeping. How far is this potential being realised in Rwanda? In collaboration with the Rwanda Revenue Authority, we collected survey data from 1, 100 merchants country-wide and were able to correlate this with tax administrative data, i.e. the tax records of the interviewees held by the revenue authority. We also conducted focus group discussions with 15 merchants. We found that the great majority of payments are still made in cash. Larger, more knowledgeable and financially included merchants opt for MoMo Pay as opposed to standard mobile money, the latter being preferred by female and less educated and equipped merchants. At the start of the pandemic, in March 2020, for a period of 18 months, all fees on MoMo Pay transactions were waived to foster digital payments through the service. In September 2021, fees were then reintroduced. The waiver led to a significant rise in the use of MoMo Pay relative to cash. When the MoMo Pay fee was reintroduced, there was a significant shift back to cash from both MoMo Pay and standard mobile money services, even if the latter were not affected by the fee. Lastly, we measure whether the adoption of digital payments correlates with merchants’ tax perceptions and compliance behaviour. First, we show that merchants using MoMo Pay tend to disagree with the obligation of paying taxes in order to receive public services, a measure of fiscal reciprocity. Such negative correlation is probably due to the fee imposed on MoMo Pay. Furthermore, standard mobile money usage improves the perceived ease of complying with taxes, while that is not the case for MoMo Pay. Again, the fact that fees on MoMo Pay are not clearly identifiable in MoMo Pay statements complicates merchants’ reporting and reconciliation of their activity for tax purposes. When it comes to compliance behaviour with VAT, the adoption of digital payments by merchants only improves their reported VAT sales and inputs, and only in the short term, while final VAT liability does not change. This hints at perverse compensating strategies to avoid taxes. We recommend that the tax administration better understand the adoption patterns of digital payments and incentivise usage among less equipped categories of taxpayers. The tax administration would also benefit from getting access to mobile money data to better monitor and enforce merchants’ compliance. |
| Keywords: | Finance, |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idq:ictduk:17906&r=mac |
| By: | Stanca Lorenzo (Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics (ESOMAS) and Collegio Carlo Alberto, University of Torino, Italy;) |
| Abstract: | Models of recursive utility are of central importance in many economic applications. This paper investigates a new behavioral feature exhibited by these models: aversion to risks that exhibit persistence (positive autocorrelation) through time, referred to as correlation aversion. I introduce a formal notion of such a property and provide a characterization based on risk attitudes, and show that correlation averse preferences admit a specific variational representation. I discuss how these findings imply that attitudes toward correlation are a crucial behavioral aspect driving the applications of recursive utility in fields such as asset pricing, climate policy, and optimal fiscal policy. |
| Keywords: | Intertemporal Substitution, Risk Aversion, Correlation Aversion, Recursive Utility, Preference for Early Resolution of Uncertainty, Information. |
| JEL: | C61 D81 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tur:wpapnw:080&r=mac |
| By: | Martin, Will; Minot, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | This paper begins with a survey of recent commodity price developments that highlights the magnitude of this price surge and identifies the rapid rise in wheat prices as a key element. The analysis in this paper focuses on the extent to which domestic markets are insulated from these changes and on the resulting impacts on world prices. An econometric analysis using Error Correction Models finds stable long-term relationships between world wheat prices and most domestic prices of wheat and wheat products, but with considerable variation across countries in the rate of price transmission. A case study of the price shocks during the Covid pandemic and the Ukraine food price crisis finds that price insulation roughly doubled the overall increase in world wheat prices and raised their volatility both during periods of price increase and price decline. |
| Keywords: | Coronavirus; coronavirus disease; Coronavirinae; COVID-19; error correction model; food prices; food price crisis; models; price stabilization; wheat; shocks; cointegration; ECM; price insulation; Ukraine war |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2175&r=mac |
| By: | L. BLOCH (Insee); B. FAVETTO (Insee); A. LAGOUGE (Insee); F. SÉDILLOT (Banque de France) |
| Abstract: | L'hétérogénéité des rendements du capital et leur corrélation positive avec le patrimoine net des ménages sont des éléments cruciaux pour expliquer la formation des inégalités de patrimoine. Après une revue de la littérature empirique sur ce thème, le document présente des estimations de richesse et de rendements du capital à partir d’une base de données originale associant à l’enquête Patrimoine française 2017, les déclarations fiscales à l’impôt sur le revenu (IR) et à l’impôt de solidarité sur la fortune (ISF), les comptes et bilans d’entreprises ainsi que les comptes nationaux. L’étude de la distribution jointe des rendements du capital et du patrimoine net met en évidence, sur l’année étudiée, une hausse sensible du rendement du patrimoine net avec le niveau de celui-ci, en particulier en haut de la distribution. Le rendement du patrimoine net augmente de 3, 3 points de pourcentage entre le 2ème et le dernier décile de patrimoine net. La hausse du rendement est plus marquée dans les derniers centiles. Ces premiers résultats, subordonnés au choix des hypothèses de redressement et à l’année considérée, contribuent néanmoins au débat sur les inégalités de patrimoine en France. |
| Keywords: | enquête ; calibration, patrimoine, rendements hétérogènes, inégalités de rendement, inégalités de patrimoine |
| JEL: | C83 D31 G11 G51 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nse:doctra:2022-14&r=mac |
| By: | Omoju, Oluwasola Emmanuel |
| Abstract: | Poverty, inequality and unemployment are major development challenges in Nigeria. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), poverty, inequality and unemployment are currently about 40.1% (2019), 35.1% (2019) and 33% (2020) respectively. These challenges inspired the government to introduce the cash transfer programme to cushion the effects of these trio. The cash transfer programme gives cash of N5, 000 monthly to registered households. However, to raise funds to finance the cash transfer and other programmes, the government increase the VAT rate from 5% to 7.5%. This, this paper examines the macroeconomic and welfare impacts of the cash transfer programme, and further investigates the effects of the VAT increase on the effectiveness of the cash transfer programme. The PEP-1-1 CGE model calibrated on Nigeria’s updated social accounting matric (SAM) is used to carry out the impact analysis. The results show the cash transfer programme increases household consumption, household welfare, and real GDP growth while reducing unemployment rate. But the effects are much higher if the cash transfer programme is financed mainly through the budget than when it is financed by the increase in VAT rate. More so, the welfare of rural household increases than that of urban household. The cash transfer programme also induces the purchasing power of the households, leading to higher prices of commodities, and increase in consumer price index. Financing it through an increase in the VAT rate further aggravates the price effects. Meanwhile, financing the cash transfer programme through the increase in the VAT rate only improves government finances marginally. Thus, it is recommended that the while the government may provide cash transfers to household, increasing the VAT rate to fund the cash transfer might undermine the positive welfare-enhancing effects of the cash transfer. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333400&r=mac |
| By: | Haider Ellalee (Oxford Institute for Economic Studies - Haider Ellalee); Dr Walid Y Alali |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the decision-makers manage and deal with the Russian invasion from an economic perspective. The consequences of the made decisions in the long and short terms. Meantime, how were the European-American people influenced by these decisions, and to what extent did these decisions affect the economy of other nations? Consequently, to what extent could the current global financial system be exposed? Regardless of the damage and paralysis that this administration has caused to the Russian economy. We also discuss the beginning of the Russian threat and the precautions that should have been taken to avoid today's economic crisis. We also address the concept of the current applied siege model and mechanisms that can directly affect and weakening-off the regimes. Finally, we discuss the invasion of the Russian Federation and how this humanitarian catastrophe can be ended. Finally, we propose a scenario for ending the humanitarian and economic catastrophe caused by the Russian-Ukraine invasion. |
| Keywords: | Economy, Russia-Ukraine War, Sanction, Russia Invasion, Inflation |
| Date: | 2022–10–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03837622&r=mac |
| By: | Eliane Badaoui; Olivier Bargain; Prudence Magejo; Eric Strobl; Frank Walsh |
| Abstract: | The view of informal employment as a last resort in the labour market has recently been challenged by numerous studies documenting the existence of a high degree of heterogeneity within the formal and informal sectors - in particular the presence of high-tier informal work corresponding to voluntary self-employment. There is currently not much theoretical support for these observations. We develop a formal model to explain this growing empirical evidence about substantial heterogeneity within formal/informal labour markets. In our model, workers may enter self-employment or search for jobs as employees, while allowing for heterogeneity across workers’ managerial ability. While workers with higher managerial ability will manage larger firms, workers with lower managerial ability will manage smaller firms and be in self-employment only when they cannot find a salaried formal/informal job. For the latter, self-employment in the informal sector is the outside employment option. |
| Keywords: | Self-employment; Managerial ability; Informal sector. |
| JEL: | J31 O17 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2023-9&r=mac |
| By: | van Netten, Jamie (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between economic inequality and expansions of bank credit in Australia throughout recent decades. This relationship is a central component of what has become colloquially known as the “Rajan hypothesis†and more technically referred to as the “inequality, credit, crisis nexus†. The findings of the paper suggest that although there is a strong positive relationship between inequality and expansions of bank credit in Australia at the most aggregated level (consistent with international studies of the phenomenon in which Australia was included in panel data), when the types of loans are examined in more detail, their correlation with inequality is not consistent with the belief that credit is channelled specifically to low income households as inequality worsens (as is suggested by the Rajan hypothesis). There are multiple ways in which the Australian case differs from the American which may contribute to the differing results, some of which include a lower levels of income inequality, more progressive taxation policy which reduces consumption inequality, and stricter macroprudential policy which resulted in fewer subprime loans. |
| Keywords: | Inequality ; Credit booms ; Loans ; Rajan JEL classifications: D63 ; E51 ; G21 ; G28 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:wrkesp:54&r=mac |
| By: | Torben M. Andersen (Aarhus University [Aarhus]); Giuseppe Bertola (UNITO - Università degli studi di Torino = University of Turin); Clemens Fuest (Ifo Munich - Ifo Munich, LMU - Ludwig Maximilian University [Munich]); Cecilia García-Peñalosa (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Harold James (Princeton University); Jan-Egbert Sturm (KOF Swiss Economic Institute) |
| Abstract: | This year‘s report addresses the future role governments and the challenges they are confronted with in post-pandemic times. It takes a broader perspective and relates the current situation to economic and political developments since the 1970s and examines whether and how the role of governments will change after the Covid-19 crisis. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03995004&r=mac |
| By: | Headey, Derek D.; Bachewe, Fantu Nisrane; Marshall, Quinn; Raghunathan, Kalyani; Mahrt, Kristi |
| Abstract: | International food prices have become increasingly volatile in recent decades, with “global food crises†in 2008, 2011 and most recently in 2022. The 2008 crisis prompted international agencies to ambitiously extend their monitoring of domestic food prices in developing countries to strengthen early warning systems and food and nutrition surveillance. However, food inflation by itself is not sufficient for measuring disposable income or food affordability; for that, one must measure either changes in income or changes in an income proxy. Here we propose the use of a low-cost income proxy that can be monitored at the same high frequency and spatial granularity as food prices: the wages of poor unskilled workers. While not all poor people are unskilled wage earners, changes in the real “reservation wages†of low skilled activities are likely to be highly predictive of changes in disposable income for poorer segments of society (Deaton and Dreze 2002). We demonstrate this by estimating changes in “food wages†– wages deflated food price indices – during well-documented food price crises in Ethiopia (2008, 2011 and 2022), Sri Lanka (2022) and Myanmar (2022). In all these instances, food wages declined by 20-30%, often in the space of a few months. Moreover, in Myanmar we use a household panel survey data to show that the decline in food wages over the course of 2022 closely matches estimate declines in household disposable income and proportional increases in income-based poverty. We argue that the affordability of nutritious food for “all people, at all times†is a critically important dimension of food security, and we advocate for monitoring the wages of the poor as a cheap and accurate means of capturing that dimension. |
| Keywords: | ETHIOPIA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; SRI LANKA; MYANMAR; BURMA; SOUTHEAST ASIA; ASIA; food prices; food crises; food security; nutrition; wages; healthy diets; monitoring; inflation; household income; early warning systems |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2174&r=mac |
| By: | Satadru Das (Reserve Bank of India); Lucie Gadenne (Queen Mary University of London); Tushar Nandi (Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER)); Ross Warwick (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of electronic payment technology on tax compliance in a large developing economy. We consider India's demonetization policy which, by limiting cash availability, led to a large increase in the use of electronic forms of payments. Using administrative data on firms' tax returns and variation in the strength of the demonetization shock across local areas, we find that greater use of electronic payments leads to firms reporting more sales to the tax authorities. Our estimates imply that the shift to electronic payments increased reported sales by 5% despite demonetization's negative effect on economic activity. |
| Keywords: | tax compliance, electronic payments, demonetization |
| JEL: | H26 O23 H25 |
| Date: | 2022–10–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:943&r=mac |
| By: | Elisé Wendlassida Miningou (World Bank Group) |
| Abstract: | To face a debt crisis, countries often implement various forms of fiscal consolidation policies. This may have some implications for their education financing. This paper tries to better understand how debt and fiscal consolidation can potentially impact government expenditure on education. It shows that increased external debt is associated with a higher risk of fiscal consolidation which could, in turn, be associated with a decline in education spending. One percent increase in the external debt is associated with a 1.4 % decline in the spending per school-age child. Given the rising debt levels fueled by the COVID-19 response policies, a decline in education expenditure is to be expected in the post-pandemic world. Simulations show that in low- and middle-income countries, a 5 % increase in the external debt could lead to a $12.8 billion decline in the volume of education expenditure, all things being equal. This decline is almost equivalent to the volume of official development assistance to the education sector in 2020. This paper sounds the alarm bell for the potential impact of the COVID-19-related debt on education financing. |
| Keywords: | Human capital, Education Expenditure, Fiscal Consolidation, Debt. |
| JEL: | O1 H5 H6 I2 |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shr:wpaper:22-02&r=mac |
| By: | Langot, François; Malmberg, Selma; Tripier, Fabien; Hairault, Jean-Olivier |
| Abstract: | Dans la perspective de la transition énergétique de la France, cette note évalue l’efficacité des politiques macroéconomiques de court terme visant à favoriser l’acceptabilité sociale d’une taxe carbone. L’évaluation est menée à partir du modèle d’analyse de la conjoncture de l’Observatoire Macro du CEPREMAP (CepreHANK) permettant de réaliser des prévisions de croissance, d’inflation, de dette publique et d’inégalités pour la France. Nous considérons une hausse de la taxe carbone sur la période 2024-2027 similaire à celle qui avait été envisagée en 2018 avant le mouvement des gilets jaunes. La taxe carbone agit sur l’économie comme un choc d’offre négatif qui contracte l’activité économique, augmente le niveau des prix et frappe particulièrement les ménages défavorisés qui consacrent une plus grande part de leurs revenus à l’énergie. Ces coûts en termes d’activité économique et d’inégalités freinent l’acceptabilité sociale de la taxe carbone. Comment les atténuer pour rendre acceptable cette taxe carbone ? Si la Banque Centrale Européenne est plus accommodante, alors la croissance est préservée, sans porter préjudice à l’objectif de diminution de la consommation énergétique et les recettes fiscales de la taxe carbone permettent de réduire la dette publique. Plus surprenant, cet accompagnement monétaire permet de réduire les inégalités via la baisse du taux d’intérêt réel. Si la hausse transitoire de l’inflation ne déstabilise pas les anticipations, cette croissance « égalitaire » rendrait acceptable la taxe carbone. En l’absence de cette politique monétaire plus accommodante, redistribuer aux ménages modestes les recettes fiscales de la taxe carbone ferait perdre de la croissance et réduirait peu les inégalités. Utiliser les recettes de la taxe carbone pour investir dans la rénovation énergétique préserve mieux la croissance tout en limitant la montée des inégalités. Comme ces deux politiques stimulent la demande, et sont donc inflationnistes, elles amènent la Banque Centrale Européenne à remonter son taux directeur, ce qui freine l’activité et augmente les inégalités via la hausse du taux d’intérêt réel profitable aux revenus du patrimoine. La comparaison de ces politiques montre que le comportement de la banque centrale, via la fixation de son taux directeur, est déterminant pour l’acceptabilité sociale de la taxe carbone. |
| Keywords: | France, taxe carbone, macroéconomie, acceptablitié |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notmac:2301&r=mac |
| By: | mohammed, habib |
| Abstract: | Profitability of financial institutions play a vital role in determining the effectiveness and efficiency of the financial system globally and it is dominated by the banking industry. These banks generates profits that results panel data that requires panel model to analyze and explore determinant factors associated with its profitability. The aim of this article to model determinants of private banks profitability in Ethiopia during 2012–2021 considering its dynamic nature. Return on assets, return on equity, and net interest margin were used as profitability indicators and analyzed using dynamic panel model estimation methods based on system generalized moment estimation techniques. The exploratory data analysis result showed the profitability; return on asset was seems stable while return on equity was decreased and net interest margin was increased with decreasing rate. The model specification result showed one-step system generalized moment method estimation was an appropriate estimation technique as model estimation result directs lagged profitability, capital adequacy, asset quality and branch of banks have positive significant effect on private banks profitability. Similarly inflation rate and economic growth rate have positively determine private banks profitability on macroeconomic side. Despite to this results liquidity was significant negative bank specific determinant of private banks profitability in Ethiopia. The study result recommends consideration on capital adequacy, asset quality, liquidity, branch of banks for the private banks profitability. In addition, this study will call upcoming research to include other financial determinants suggests such as credit risk and non-performing loan with improving the estimation method of panel autoregressive distributed lag models for modeling private banks profitability in Ethiopia. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic Panel Model, Ethiopia, Generalized Moment Method, Panel Data, Private Banks, Profitability |
| JEL: | C10 |
| Date: | 2023–03–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116817&r=mac |
| By: | Erik Brynjolfsson; Wang Jin; Xiupeng Wang |
| Abstract: | Information flows, and thus information technology (IT) are central to the structure of firms and markets. Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we provide firm-level evidence that increases in IT intensity are associated with increases in firm size and concentration in both employment and sales. Results from instrumental variables and long-difference models suggest that the effect is likely causal. The effect of IT on size is more pronounced for sales than employment, which leads to a decline in the labor share, consistent with the “scale without mass” theory of digitization. Furthermore, we find that IT provides greater benefits to larger firms by increasing their capability to replicate their operations across establishments, markets, and industries. Our findings provide empirical evidence suggesting that the substantial rise in IT investment is one of the main driving forces for the increase in firm size, decline of labor share, the growth of superstar firms, and increased market concentration in recent years. |
| JEL: | L10 O3 O30 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31065&r=mac |
| By: | Kuik, Onno; Zhou, Fujin; Ciullo, Alessio; Brusselaers, Jan |
| Abstract: | The European economy and financial markets are closely connected to the US economy and financial markets through trade and investment flows. Severe natural disasters in the US may not only have economic and financial impacts in the US but also have spill-over effects on Europe, especially under the increasing climate risks. This paper contributes to the thin literature that focuses on the international financial and economic impacts of natural disasters. We adopt a recently introduced climate storyline approach, which is an event-based approach aiming at building “physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways”, to estimate the financial and economic impacts of natural disasters. Specifically, we first estimate the economic damages of downward counterfactuals of three hurricanes (Harvey, Irma and Maria) that struck the southern US in 2017.Downward counterfactuals are plausible alternative realizations of historic events that would have been much more impactful than the actual event. We estimate that total damage due to the three hurricanes could have been half a trillion USD in the worst case scenario. We then use a dynamic global equilibrium model to assess how financial and economic impacts on the European Union unfold over time. The results show small but material effects on the European economy, , with marked differences between economic sectors. On the production side, manufacturing sectors (petro-chemicals and other manufactures) increase their production by around 0.1% in the short term. The activity of the construction sector in the EU falls by up to 0.6% for about a decade, as do domestic investments. This has a small but negative impact on economic growth in the European Union. We show how these effects are related to the initial physical damages as well as to the economic responses that are likely to follow after the disaster. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333438&r=mac |
| By: | George M. Constantinides; Maurizio Montone; Valerio Potì; Stella Spilioti |
| Abstract: | Previous research finds correlation between sentiment and future economic growth, but disagrees on the channel that explains this result. In this paper, we shed new light on this issue by exploiting cross-country variation in sentiment and market efficiency. We find that sentiment shocks in G7 countries increase economic activity, but only temporarily and without affecting productivity. By contrast, sentiment shocks in non-G7 countries predict prolonged economic growth and a corresponding increase in productivity. The results suggest that sentiment can indeed create economic booms, but only in less advanced economies where noisy asset prices make sentiment and fundamentals harder to disentangle. |
| JEL: | G10 G30 F36 F43 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31031&r=mac |
| By: | Bilal Hungund; Shilpa Rastogi |
| Abstract: | The money market and the capital market of the Indian financial markets have a symbiotic relationship in the development of the Indian economy. The nature and the characteristics of the markets differ to a large extent as the money market ensures liquidity in the system through the monetary policy by the regulators; capital markets propel and act as the engine driver for the economy in the long term. Therefore, the final throughput of the economy is the aggregation of the output of both the markets. Does that imply that the development of both markets is parallel in nature or is any one superior to the other or are they competitors? To understand the influence of one over the other the research was undertaken through a correlation matrix and time series model. A predictive model was further constructed for predicting the volume of money market instrument on the basis of fourteen days historical. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.10481&r=mac |
| By: | Klein, Margarete; Schreiber, Nils Holger |
| Abstract: | In der Entscheidung Moskaus vom 24. Februar 2022, erneut in die Ukraine einzumarschieren, kulminiert der seit 2008 zu beobachtende Trend zur Militarisierung der russischen Außenpolitik. Zugleich legt der Krieg die Schwächen der 2008 gestarteten Streitkräftereform offen. Die hohen Verluste der Armee begrenzen die militärischen Machtprojektionsfähigkeiten Russlands zum Beispiel in Syrien und in anderen Konflikten. Zudem setzen militärische Rückschläge und Teilmobilmachung einen wichtigen Pfeiler der Regimelegitimation unter Druck. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, Russland, Putin, Militärreform, Invasion, Angriffskrieg, Militarisierung der russischen Außen- und Innenpolitik, Regimelegitimation, Mobilmachung |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:762022&r=mac |
| By: | Ba Chu (Department of Economics, Carleton University); Shafiullah Qureshi (Department of Economics, Carleton University) |
| Abstract: | We run a 'horse race' among popular forecasting methods, including machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) methods, employed to forecast U.S. GDP growth. Given the unstable nature of GDP growth data, we implement a recursive forecasting strategy to calculate the out-of-sample performance metrics of forecasts for multiple subperiods. We use three sets of predictors: a large set of 224 predictors [of U.S. GDP growth] taken from a large quarterly macroeconomic database (namely, FRED-QD), a small set of nine strong predictors selected from the large set, and another small set including these nine strong predictors together with a high-frequency business condition index. We then obtain the following three main findings: (1) when forecasting with a large number of predictors with mixed predictive power, density-based ML methods (such as bagging or boosting) can outperform sparsity-based methods (such as Lasso) for long-horizon forecast, but this is not necessarily the case for short-horizon forecast; (2) density-based ML methods tend to perform better with a large set of predictors than with a small subset of strong predictors; and (3) parsimonious models using a strong high-frequency predictor can outperform sophisticated ML and DL models using a large number of low-frequency predictors, highlighting the important role of predictors in economic forecasting. We also find that ensemble ML methods (which are the special cases of density-based ML methods) can outperform popular DL methods. |
| Keywords: | Lasso, Ridge Regression, Random Forest, Boosting Algorithms, Artifical Neural Networks, Dimensional Reduction Methods, MIDAS, GDP growth |
| Date: | 2021–10–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:car:carecp:21-12&r=mac |
| By: | Papa, Javier |
| Abstract: | In the current context of complexity, multiple conflicts and inter-dependency, the main problem facing decision takers and, in particular, policy makers, is related to the formulation of multiple public policies that ought to be fulfilled at the same time while moving towards a more sustainable and equitable development. In order to meet multiple policy objectives, limited to the existing resources, a number of optimization methods or multi-criteria analysis have been developed and used (Munda, 2004). In the case of Argentina, the high degree of volatility observed in most of the macroeconomic variables thus affecting the business cycle, posit a particular challenge for policy maker to take decisions on the basis of frequently changing policy objectives. Based on primary data that have been reconciled and aggregated from micro to macro levels, we use a multi-criteria method (built on 13 different methodologies) to try and optimize the decision making process concerning –mostly- economic policies in Argentina. The preliminary results show that, at industry level, the service sector (along with the food processing and construction sector) in core regions of Buenos Aires, Santa Fe and Cordoba seem to be the most important ones to satisfy the policy objectives (e.g. inclusiveness, dynamism, stability, sovereignty, federalism, and sustainability) with the corresponding weights chosen by the policy-makers for the purpose of this paper. |
| Keywords: | Economic Development; Multi-Criteria Methodology; Decision-Making; Public Policy; Argentina |
| JEL: | B41 H59 O11 O21 O54 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116783&r=mac |
| By: | Eugenia Andreasen (University of Chile); Sofia Bauducco (University of Chile); Evangelina Dardati (Universidad Diego Portales); Enrique G. Mendoza (University of Pennsylvania and NBER) |
| Abstract: | We show that capital controls have large adverse effects on misallocation, exports and welfare using a dynamic Melitz-OLG model with heterogeneous firms, monopolistic competition, endogenous trade participation and collateral constraints. Static effects increase misallocation by reducing capital-labor ratios and rising firmprices, dynamic effects reduce it by incentivizing saving and delaying entry into export markets, and general equilibrium effects are ambiguous. Firms at the collateral constraint or at their optimal scale are barely affected but those in between are severely affected. Calibrated to the 1990s Chilean encaje, the model yields higher aggregate misallocation with larger effects on exporters and high-productivity firms. Social welfare falls and welfare of exporters falls significantly more. LTV regulation cuts credit by the same amount at sharply lower costs, because it spreads the burden of the cut more evenly. A panel data analysis of Chilean manufacturing firms yields strong evidence supporting the model’s predictions |
| Keywords: | Capital controls, welfare, misallocation, financial frictions, international trade |
| JEL: | F12 F38 F41 O47 |
| Date: | 2023–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:23-005&r=mac |
| By: | S. QUANTIN (Insee); C. WELTER-MÉDÉE (Insee) |
| Abstract: | L’estimation du manque à gagner de l’administration fiscale dans son activité de recouvrement des impôts est un enjeu important, mais est difficile à effectuer. L’extrapolation à l’ensemble des entreprises redevables d’un impôt en se fondant sur des informations issues des contrôles fiscaux, nécessite de prendre en compte le processus qui a conduit à sélectionner les entreprises soumises à ces contrôles. Or ce processus est particulièrement complexe et non formalisé : il est le résultat d’un programme de contrôle concernant l’ensemble des secteurs d’activité, et d’un travail d’expertise fouillé conduit par les contrôleurs fiscaux sur la base de nombreuses informations. En découle un biais de sélection important, qui empêche toute extrapolation simpliste. Ce travail s’appuie sur les données de gestion du contrôle fiscal transmises par la DGFiP. Pour estimer les montants manquants de TVA, nous adoptons une méthodologie en deux étapes, appliquée sur une partition des entreprisesredevables de la TVA selon l'administration chargée du contrôle afin de prendre en compte les différences structurelles d’organisation des contrôles. La première étape vise à estimer une pondération pour chaque entreprise contrôlée et s’inspire des méthodes de redressement de la non-réponse par repondération. On constitue des groupes d'entreprises ayant une probabilité estimée d'être contrôlée similaire, puis on attribue à chaque entreprise d'un même groupe la même pondération, en l'occurrence l'inverse de la proportion d'entreprises effectivement contrôlées du groupe. Dans une seconde étape et en s'appuyant sur ces pondérations, on propose d'extrapoler les montants de manque à gagner par des estimateurs par le ratio et/ou la moyenne, appliqués à des regroupementd'entreprises homogènes au sens de la probabilité de frauder. Dans l’ensemble, les différentes estimations obtenues à partir des données de contrôle relatives à l'exercice comptable de 2012 semblent assez peu dépendantes des variations méthodologiques adoptées et sont toutes comprises entre 20 et 25 milliards d’euros. |
| Keywords: | Machine Learning, biais de sélection, écart de TVA, contrôles fiscaux |
| JEL: | C55 C83 H26 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nse:doctra:2022-11&r=mac |
| By: | Chandril Bhattacharyya (Centre for Development Studies Kerala); Dibyendu Maiti (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper applies the endogenous growth model with R&D in the presence of the informal sector. It establishes the existence of formal and informal sectors at the steady state, where the formal sector only can buy patented intermediate varieties. The patent for a finite period reduces the incentive to invest in R&D, thereby reducing growth. It further shows that the steady-state growth rate depends on the share of formal employment and vice versa. However, the extent to which the economy would grow depends on various country-specific factors, production-related characteristics and the cost of accessing production activities in the informal sector. As a country develops, we found that a drop in substitutability between formal and informal goods and a rise in formal wage rent with the development reduce the share of formal employment and growth rate. In contrast, improved formal productivity increases them. They together may produce a non-monotonic shape of growth and formal employment share with the level of development. JEL Codes: E26, O11 Key words: Informal Sector, R&D, Patent length, growth |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cde:cdewps:334&r=mac |
| By: | Asaf Bernstein; Carola Frydman; Eric Hilt |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of the first-ever ratings for corporate securities. In 1909, John Moody published a book that partitioned the majority of listed railroad bonds into letter-graded ratings based on his assessments of their credit risk. These ratings had no regulatory implications and were largely explainable using publicly available information. Despite this, we find that lower than market-implied ratings caused a rise in secondary market bond yields. Using an instrumental-variables design, we show that bonds that were rated experienced a substantial decline in their bid-ask spreads, which is consistent with reduced information asymmetries and improved liquidity. Our findings suggest that ratings can improve information transmission, even in settings with the highest monetary stakes, and highlight their potential value for the functioning of financial markets. |
| JEL: | G24 G28 N21 N81 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31064&r=mac |
| By: | Michele Baggio (University of Connecticut); Metin M. Cosgel (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we contribute to the literature on diversity and team performance by exploiting unique data from the natural experiment of American offshore whaling industry during the period between 1807 and 1912. Teams are represented by the crew operating onboard of whaling vessels and performance is measured by the value of the output captured during voyage. Combining information from multiple data sources, we document the existence of a U-shaped relationship between racial diversity and team performance. The nonlinear effect was transmitted by conflicts and skill complementarity among the whalemen. Crews adapted to diversity over time, as the effect shifted from being negative to negligible and then positive between short, medium, and long term voyages. |
| JEL: | D24 J15 J24 L25 M14 N11 O47 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2023-04&r=mac |
| By: | Nazif Durmaz; Hyeongwoo Kim; Hyejin Lee; Yanfei Sun |
| Abstract: | Closed-end fund (CEF) prices often exhibit large and persistent deviations from their associated net asset values (NAVs), which is puzzling since CEFs are repackaged financial assets and NAVs are publicly observable. We point out that such high persistence is mainly observed when linear models are employed, calling for nonlinear models to understand this so-called CEF discount puzzle. Applying the RALS-LM framework that allows for multiple endogenously identified trend-breaks for 31 CEF discount data, we show that CEF prices tend to fluctuate around time-varying time trends, which can be consistent with a regime switching model. We also demonstrate that utilizing non-normal errors through moment conditions enhances the efficiency at the margin. Nonlinearity with level shifts only fails to explain the observed persistence of CEF discounts. |
| Keywords: | Closed-End Fund; CEF Discount Puzzle; Residual Augmented Least Squares; Non-Normal Error; Trend Breaks |
| JEL: | C22 G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abn:wpaper:auwp2023-03&r=mac |
| By: | Nathalie Greenan (CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé, LIRSA - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire de recherche en sciences de l'action - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université, CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université); Majda Seghir (CEET - Centre d'études de l'emploi et du travail - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche - Ministère du Travail, de l'Emploi et de la Santé, LIRSA - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire de recherche en sciences de l'action - CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université, CNAM - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université) |
| Abstract: | Workforce vulnerability has recently come to the forefront in European policy debate as countries searched for the potential engine of inclusive growth with an aim of protecting workers against adverse working conditions. This paper presents a methodology to measure vulnerability at the workplace relying on a definition of vulnerable workers as carrying the burden of working under the threat of adverse physical and psychosocial working conditions. Vulnerability is thus a forward-looking concept that allows the identification of workers who are the most exposed to work resource deprivations and more generally to ill-being at the workplace. Using a pseudo-panel derived from repeated cross-sectional data, second-order moments can be used to identify and estimate the variance of shocks on working conditions and, therefore, the probability of being exposed to adverse working conditions in the future. Estimates from the last editions of the European Working Conditions Survey (EWCS) provide a vulnerability measure both at the cohort level and at the aggregate one, allowing comparisons across European countries. |
| Abstract: | Conformément aux objectifs européens d'une croissance et d'un marché du travail plus inclusifs, la question de la vulnérabilité des travailleurs occupe un pan essentiel de la politique économique et sociale européenne. Ce travail s'insère ainsi dans une réflexion visant à définir et à mesurer les différentes formes de vulnérabilité qui peuvent survenir et se développer dans le travail en Europe. Nous proposons un cadre conceptuel et méthodologique où la vulnérabilité est définie comme le degré d'exposition des travailleurs à des risques cumulés sur le lieu de travail, ayant des effets néfastes pour le bien-être et la santé. À cette fin, un indicateur de conditions de travail défavorables est proposé : il agrège des facteurs relatifs aussi bien à l'environnement – qu'il soit physique ou social – qu'au contenu et à l'organisation du travail (forte intensité du travail, faible complexité, horaires atypiques). Cet indicateur synthétique est ensuite utilisé pour calculer la probabilité pour un travailleur d'être exposé à une dégradation de ses conditions de travail. C'est cette probabilité qui mesure la vulnérabilité aux conditions de travail dégradées. Notre mesure est construite à partir des données provenant des cinq dernières éditions de l'enquête européenne sur les conditions de travail (EWCS). S'appuyant sur les techniques d'estimation en pseudo-panel, nos résultats montrent de grandes disparités de la vulnérabilité des travailleurs occupés au sein des quinze pays fondateurs de l'Union européenne. |
| Keywords: | vulnerability, adverse working conditions, pseudo-panel, European countries, vulnérabilité, mauvaises conditions de travail, pays européens |
| Date: | 2022–10–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03844470&r=mac |
| By: | Chepeliev, Maksym; Aguiar, Angel; Farole, Thomas; Liverani, Andrea; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique |
| Abstract: | Rapidly increasing material extraction is putting major pressure on ecosystems. Future increases in incomes and population could result in over 2.5 times growth in global material demand by 2050, putting even more pressure on environment. Thus, an absolute decoupling of material use from GDP and income is of major importance to preserve the safe operating boundaries. It is vital to understand how current policy efforts, including climate mitigation, could impact material use patterns and what complementary circular economy (CE) policies should be implemented to support dematerialization. Here we develop a special version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database (GTAP-CE) with detailed representation of primary, secondary, and recycling activities for metals (steel, aluminum, copper, etc.) and plastics. We also incorporate quantity flows of metal ores and non-metallic minerals. We investigate a set of scenarios focusing on Europe that include mitigation and CE-specific policies using a dynamic general equilibrium model (ENVISAGE). A set of CE-specific policies includes fiscal measures to stimulate recycling and penalize primary production, extraction levies (for non-metallic minerals), and demand-side measures, such as shifts in consumption patterns toward dematerialization, changes in the product design and product lifetime extensions. We also model various border tax adjustments covering embodied raw materials and consider alternative revenue recycling mechanisms. Our results indicate that EU mitigation measures will have a moderate impact on material use. Similarly, materials-focused measures will have only a modest impact on CO2 emissions. Aggregate material use in the EU could decline up to 8-11% (relative to baseline in 2030) under alternative CE policies allowing to achieve absolute decoupling. We also find that using CE production taxes’ revenue to reduce labor taxes would lead to increase of growth and welfare. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333431&r=mac |
| By: | Bennett, P.; Liu, K.; Salvanes, K.; |
| Abstract: | How does a large structural change to the labor market affect education investments made at young ages? Exploiting differential exposure to the national decline in routine-task intensity across local labor markets, we show that the secular decline in routine tasks causes major shifts in education investments of high school students, where they invest less in vocational-trades education and increasingly invest in college education. Our results highlight that labor demand changes impact inequality in the next generation. Low-ability and low-SES students are most responsive to task-biased demand changes and, as a result, intergenerational mobility in college education increases. |
| Keywords: | Routine tasks, education investment, mobility, task-biased demand change. |
| Date: | 2023–03–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2329&r=mac |
| By: | Andres Rodriguez-Pose; Javier Terrero-Davila; Neil Lee |
| Abstract: | Economic change over the past twenty years has rendered many individuals and territories vulnerable, leading to greater interpersonal and interterritorial inequality. This rising inequality is seen as a root cause of populism. Yet, there is no comparative evidence as to whether this discontent is the consequence of localised interpersonal inequality or stagnant growth in ‘left-behind’ places. This paper assesses the association between levels and changes in local GDP per capita and interpersonal inequality, and the rise of far-right populism in Europe and in the US. The analysis —conducted at small region level for Europe and county level for the US— shows that there are both similarities and differences in the factors connected to populist voting on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, neither interpersonal inequality nor economic decline can explain populist support on their own. However, these factors gain significance when considered together with the racial composition of the area. Counties with a large share of white population where economic growth has been stagnant and where inequalities have increased supported Donald Trump. Meanwhile, counties with a similar economic trajectory but with a higher share of minorities shunned populism. In Europe, the most significant factor behind the rise of far-right populism is economic decline. This effect is particularly large in areas with a high share of immigration. |
| Keywords: | populism, anti-system voting, interpersonal inequality, interterritorial inequality, economic growth, Europe, US. |
| JEL: | D31 D72 R11 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2306&r=mac |
| By: | Garaffa, Rafael; Weitzel, Matthias; Vandyck, Toon; Keramidas, Kimon; Paul, Dowling; Tchung-Ming, Stéphane; Florian, Fosse; Ana, Diaz Vazquez; Jacques, Deprés; Peter, Russ; Schade, Burkhard; Schmitz, Andreas; Ramirez, Antonio Soria; Rincon, Andrea Diaz; Rey, Luis; Wojtowicz, Krzysztof |
| Abstract: | The 2015 Paris Agreement establishes a framework in which countries submit their policy targets to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and further invites parties to submit long-term low greenhouse gas (GHG) emission development strategies. In this paper, we take stock of recent updates in the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and long-term low greenhouse gas (GHG) emission development strategies (LTS) announced leading up to and during the Conference of the Parties (COP 26) in Glasgow, in November 2021. We focus on the transition of G20 countries, which accounted for nearly 75% of global GHG emissions since 1990, assessing three different scenarios: (i) current policies; (ii) announced policy targets (NDC-LTS); and (iii) a 1.5°C-compatible pathway. We further analyse decarbonisation drivers and energy system transformation metrics within each scenario, highlighting both the policy options to bring emissions in line with ambitious climate targets, and the associated labour market transition. The regional focus reveals heterogeneous decarbonisation pathways, mitigation options and emission gaps, informing the ongoing first “global stocktake” under the Paris Agreement. Delivering on both NDC and LTS targets could limit the temperature increase of global mean temperature to about 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, reducing the ambition gap in the long run. The results furthermore suggest that the scale and concentration of cross-sectoral employment transition could warrant careful attention when designing policies to close the remaining implementation gap between current policies and climate targets. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333425&r=mac |
| By: | Anastasios Petropoulos (Bank of Greece); Evangelos Stavroulakis (Bank of Greece); Panagiotis Lazaris (Bank of Greece); Vasilis Siakoulis (Bank of Greece); Nikolaos Vlachogiannakis (Bank of Greece) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we explore the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the default risk of loan portfolios of the Greek banking system, using cutting edge machine learning technologies, like deep learning. Our analysis is based on loan level monthly data, spanning a 42-month period, collected through the ECB AnaCredit database. Our dataset contains more than three million records, including both the pre- and post-pandemic periods. We develop a series of credit rating models implementing state of the art machine learning algorithms. Through an extensive validation process, we explore the best machine learning technique to build a behavioral credit scoring model and subsequently we investigate the estimated sensitivities of various features on predicting default risk. To select the best candidate model, we perform comparisons of the classification accuracy of the proposed methods, in 2-months out-of-time period. Our empirical results indicate that the Deep Neural Networks (DNN) have a superior predictive performance, signalling better generalization capacity against Random Forests, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and logistic regression. The proposed DNN model can accurately simulate the non-linearities caused by the pandemic outbreak on the evolution of default rates for Greek corporate customers. Under this multivariate setup we apply interpretability algorithms to isolate the impact of COVID-19 on the probability of default, controlling for the rest of the features of the DNN. Our results indicate that the impact of the pandemic peaks in the first year, and then it slowly decreases, though without reaching yet the pre COVID-19 levels. Furthermore, our empirical results also suggest different behavioral patterns between Stage 1 and Stage 2 loans, and that default rate sensitivities vary significantly across sectors. The current empirical work can facilitate a more in-depth analysis of AnaCredit database, by providing robust statistical tools for a more effective and responsive micro and macro supervision of credit risk. |
| Keywords: | Credit Risk;Deep Learning; AnaCredit; COVID-19 |
| JEL: | G24 C38 C45 C55 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bog:wpaper:315&r=mac |
| By: | Vincent Carret (Duke University [Durham]) |
| Abstract: | In this note to be published as a letter to the editor of the Journal of the History of Economic Thought, I present my results on Ragnar Frisch's rocking horse model published in the same journal and detail why the comments by Ginoux and Jovanovic on my paper have no grounding. I explain the role of initial conditions on the amplitude of cycles and trend in Frisch's solution, and emphasize that my contribution was to show that Frisch built a model where cycles and growth came from the same economic mechanism. |
| Keywords: | Ragnar Frisch, rocking horse, delay differential equations |
| Date: | 2023–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03948122&r=mac |
| By: | Kazuhiro Hiraki (Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan,); George Skiadopoulos (School of Economics and Finance, Queen Mary University of London and Department of Banking and Financial Management, University of Piraeus,) |
| Abstract: | We document that a theoretically founded, real-time, and easy-to-implement option-based measure, termed synthetic-stock difference (SSD), accurately estimates the part of stock’s expected return arising from stock’s transaction costs. We calculate SSD for U.S. optionable stocks. SSD can be more than 10% per annum, it can fluctuate significantly over time and its cross-sectional dispersion widens over market crises periods. We confirm the accuracy of SSD by empirically verifying the predictions of a general asset pricing setting with transaction costs. First, we document its predicted type of connection with various proxies of stocks’ transaction costs. Second, we conduct simple asset pricing tests which render further support. Our setting allows explaining the size of alphas reported by previous literature on the predictive ability of deviations from put-call parity. |
| Keywords: | Transaction costs, Put-call parity, Return predictability, Informational content of options |
| JEL: | C13 G10 G12 G13 |
| Date: | 2023–02–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:946&r=mac |
| By: | Jonathan Gruber; David H. Howard; Jetson Leder-Luis; Theodore L. Caputi |
| Abstract: | The Medicare hospice program is intended to provide palliative care to terminal patients, but patients with long stays in hospice are highly profitable, motivating concerns about overuse among the Alzheimer’s and Dementia (ADRD) population in the rapidly growing for-profit sector. We provide the first causal estimates of the effect of for-profit hospice on patient spending using the entry of for-profit hospices over twenty years. We find hospice has saved money for Medicare by offsetting other expensive care among ADRD patients. As a result, policies limiting hospice use including revenue caps and anti-fraud lawsuits are distortionary and deter cost-saving admissions. |
| JEL: | H51 I13 K4 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31035&r=mac |
| By: | Mold, Andrew; Munyegera, Kasim Ggombe; Mukwaya, Rodgers |
| Abstract: | Recent literature has stressed that it is not so much how much a country trades that matters, but rather both the degree of value-addition locally and the extent to which an economy is integrated into regional or global value chains. Yet, with a few exceptions Africa is relatively under-researched in this field. While over recent decades the continent has experienced substantial increases in the ratios of exports and imports to GDP and forged new partnerships with emerging markets, its degree of integration in regional and global value chains remains low, even after accounting for the generally lower levels of development (Allard et al., 2016). This gap is indicative of the region’s unexploited potential to tap into value chains in selected sectors like manufacturing, agriculture and agro-processing, tourism, transport and textiles.This paper examines the policy and non-policy determinants of domestic value-added embedded in the exports of African countries, applying country fixed-effects regression to UNCTAD-EORA data covering the period 1990-2018. The paper finds that the main determinants of domestic value-addition are economic size (GDP and its per capita counterpart), the average level of tariffs and population size. But the econometric results also highlight differences among countries by resource endowment, with oil-exporting countries leading and land-locked non-resource-intensive countries lagging in domestic value addition. After providing an overview of the extent of value-addition in trade on the continent, the paper then draws conclusions about its implications for the effective implementation of the AfCFTA. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333505&r=mac |
| By: | Lint Barrage (Center of Economic Research, ETH Zurich, Zurichbergstrasse 18, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the …scal impacts of climate change and their policy implications for the United States. I develop and empirically quantify a climate-macroeconomic model where climate change can a¤ect (i) government consumption requirements (e.g., healthcare), (ii) transfer payments (e.g., income support), (iii) tax revenues, and where (iv) adaptation to sea level rise (e.g., sea walls) must be publicly …nanced. First, the paper presents a novel bottom-up quanti…cation of …scal costs based on literature synthesis and an empirical analysis of public healthcare costs associated with extreme temperatures and wild…res. Climate change is projected to increase total government consumption (transfer) requirements by around 2.2% (0.4%) by 2100 in a business-as-usual climate policy scenario, with healthcare accounting for the majority of cost increases. Second, I show theoretically that the social cost of carbon must account for climate impacts on both government consumption and household transfer payments if the marginal cost of public funds exceeds unity. Finally, the numerical results indicate that …scal considerations are of …rst order importance for climate policy design. The elasticity of the social cost of carbon with respect to government consumption (transfer) impacts per degree warming is estimated to be around 20 (10). Accounting for …scal considerations moreover increases the projected domestic U.S. welfare bene…ts of climate policy by up to a factor of three. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:23-380&r=mac |
| By: | Roman Valovic (Department of Informatics, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Zemedelska 1, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic); Daniel Pastorek (Department of Finance, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Zemedelska 1, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we subject the methodology for newspaper-based indices to several tests of robustness, to address the potential problems of this proposed approach. Firstly, we examine the strong dependency between the selected keywords and the entered query. We do this using state-of-the-art language models, such as BERT, to automatically select relevant articles to build the index. Secondly, we propose that the weighting of articles partly allows for the control of the context of the articles and potential errors in the incorrect identification of articles, which leads to more stable index results. Finally, we track composition changes in newspaper articles, which have been evolving over time. The implications of these tests may be of interest to the users of these indices as well as suggesting a future direction for this approach. |
| Keywords: | newspapers, economic-policy uncertainty, EPU index, NLP, text-mining, similarity search |
| JEL: | C80 D80 E66 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:men:wpaper:89_2023&r=mac |
| By: | Christian Flamant |
| Abstract: | This book starts from the basic questions that had been raised by the founders of Economic theory, Smith, Ricardo, and Marx: what makes the value of commodities, what are production, exchange, money and incomes like profits, wages and rents. The answers that these economists had provided were mostly wrong, above all by defining the equivalence of commodities at the level of exchange, but also because of a confusion made between values and prices, and wrong views of what production really is and the role of fixed capital. Using the mathematical theory of measurement and the physical theory of dimensional analysis, this book provides a coherent theory of value based on an equivalence relation not at the level of exchange, but of production. Indeed exchange is considered here as an equivalence relation between money and a monetary price, and not between commodities, modern monetary theory having demonstrated that money is not a commodity. The book rejects the conception of production as a surplus, which owes much to Sraffa's theory of production prices, and is shown to be severely flawed. It founds the equivalence of commodities at the level of a production process considered as a transformation process. It rehabilitates the labor theory of value, based on the connection between money and labor due the monetary payment of wages, which allows the homogenization of various kinds of concrete labor into abstract labor. It shows that value is then a dimension of commodities and that this dimension is time, i.e. the time of physics. On this background, the book shows that the calculation of values for all commodities is always possible, even in the case of joint production, and that there cannot be any commodity residue left by this calculation. As a further step, this book provides a coherent theory of the realization of the product, which occurs in the circulation process. Using an idea - the widow's cruse - introduced by Keynes in his Treatise on Money, it brings to light the mechanism behind the transformation of money values into money prices and of surplus-value into profits and other transfer incomes, ensuring the formation of monetary profits. The book sheds some light on the rate of profit, its determinants and its evolution, showing in particular the paramount importance of capitalist consumption as one of its main determinants. In passing it explains the reasons why in the real world there is a multiplicity of profit rates. Finally, it allows to solve in a precise and illustrated way the problems raised by the Marxist law of the tendency of the rate of profit to fall. Most of the results obtained translate into principles, the first ones being truly basic, the following ones less basic, but all of them being fundamental. All in all, this book might provide the first building blocks to develop a full-fledged and scientific economic theory to many fellow economists, critical of neo-classical theory, but who have not yet dicovered the bases of a complete and coherent alternative. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.09399&r=mac |
| By: | He, Jianwu; Li, Shantong |
| Abstract: | In 2021, the EU announced a detailed proposal for the "Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)". The EU is China's second largest export market, and the carbon emission intensity of China's export products is significantly higher than that of many other countries. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the impact of the carbon border adjustment mechanism on China's economy. In order to assess the macro-economic impacts of the CBAM, this study will use ENVISAGE model. In this paper the model covers 16 countries and regions, and 27 sectors. The ENVISAGE model is used to compare CBAM policy against a baseline scenario (without CBAM), and the difference represents the impact of CBAM on the global economy. As for the uncertainties, two scenarios of CBAM are designed to analyze the impacts of CBAM. The first is the partial scenario, that is, the scenario in which both the coverage of product and the embedded carbon emission are narrow. The second is the comprehensive scenario, that is, the CBAM will cover all primary products and industrial products, and the carbon emissions of products include both direct and indirect carbon emissions. This report calculated the carbon emissions of products (incl. direct and indirect carbon emission) for 15 countries and regions based on the GTAP 11 database, and then calculated the carbon tariffs in the two scenarios based on product coverage and the difference of carbon price between the EU and other countries and regions. The carbon tariffs will be feed into the ENVISAGE model to simulate the economic impacts of the CBAM scenarios. The results of the simulation show that if the carbon border adjustment mechanism is limited to five types of products such as steel, cement, fertilizer, aluminum and electricity, its impact on China will be very limited; and once the carbon border adjustment mechanism is fully implemented, it will lead to a loss of GDP by 0.64% and about 2.3 million manufacturing jobs in China in the short term. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333491&r=mac |
| By: | Marivoet, Wim; Ulimwengu, John M.; Cissé, Abdallah |
| Abstract: | Ce document présente une analyse des chaînes de valeur agroalimentaires de manioc, de riz, de lait et de poisson le long du corridor économique entre les capitales provinciales de Bukavu (Sud-Kivu) et Kalemie (Tanganyika) situées dans la partie orientale de la République démocratique du Congo (RDC). Les principales données utilisées pour cette étude proviennent d’enquêtes menées en 2021 auprès d’environ 3000 acteurs conomiques familiaux, y compris des agriculteurs, des transformateurs et des intermédiaires, actifs dans une ou plusieurs des quatre filières ciblées. Les questionnaires ont été conçus pour recueillir des données clés sur les principales opérations entrepreneuriales (telles que les recettes, les coûts et les valeurs ajoutées) ventilées par activités de production, de transformation et de commercialisation au sein de chacune des chaînes. En utilisant des outils de comptabilité économique, cette approche a permis de quantifier les flux physiques des aliments frais/non transformés et transformés et d’estimer la valeur ajoutée et la viabilité économique des différentes activités réalisées. En outre, des techniques descriptives et de réseaux sociaux ont été utilisées pour caractériser les relations entre les différents acteurs de chaque filière. |
| Keywords: | DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO; CENTRAL AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; value chains; social networks; food industry; cassava; rice; milk; fish; enterprises; economics; physical flows; economic accounting |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2171fr&r=mac |
| By: | Wladislaw Mill; Jonathan Stäbler |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how litigation and settlement behavior is affected by agents motivated by spiteful preferences under the American and the English fee-shifting rule. We conduct an experiment and find that litigation expenditures and settlement requests are higher for more spiteful participants. The relative increase in litigation expenditures due to spite is more pronounced under the American fee-shifting rule. We further find that the expected payoff for more spiteful societies is lower than for less spiteful societies. This effect is particularly pronounced for low-merit cases under the English rule compared to a constant cost under the American rule. |
| Keywords: | spite, litigation, settlement, experiment, English rule, American rule |
| JEL: | K41 C72 C91 D91 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10290&r=mac |
| By: | Sandi, Eleni (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | The Minimum Energy Efficiency Standard (MEES) aims to improve the energy efficiency of privately rented properties in England and Wales. Previous literature identifies this policy intervention as a driver of transition risk as it devalues substandard real estate. This paper reveals that MEES also devalues neighbouring houses meant to be una↵ected by the policy, i.e. above-standard properties. The study leverages a dataset that combines energy efficiency and transaction data at the postcode level to capture this spatial externality. A concentration measure for sub-standard properties within a neighbourhood is constructed, which is applied to aggregate and property level analyses using a difference-in-difference specification. The aggregate analysis reveals that an incremental increase in the concentration of sub-standard housing within a postcode sector after introducing the standard leads to a 20.1% decrease in aggregate prices for above-standard houses. A repeated sales regression run on property-level data finds that an increase in concentration leads to a more plausible 4.03% decrease in prices for above-standard properties. These results imply potential problems for homeowners who may find themselves in negative equity due to the aggregate price drop, which may also negatively impact their pro-environmental investments |
| Keywords: | C43 ; Q54 ; Q58 ; R31 JEL classifications: Climate Policy ; Transition Risk ; House Prices ; Concentration Measure |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:wrkesp:47&r=mac |
| By: | Kitetu, Geoffrey M.; Ko, Jong-Hwan |
| Abstract: | With renewed GHG emission reduction commitments and the rejoining of the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015 by the USA, this study attempts to examine the global economic implications of carbon emission reduction targets, including the opportunity cost the USA is likely to pay to implement its nationally determined commitments (NDC). The analysis employs the GTAP-E model and the GTAP database version 10 with a base year of 2014. Counter virtual experiments include eight simulation scenarios; however, we focus on scenarios 3 and 4, which evaluate global emission reduction with trading excluding and including the USA. Simulation results suggest that worldwide carbon dioxide emission trading significantly lowers the cost of implementing carbon dioxide emission reduction relative to the global carbon dioxide emission reduction under the no use of flexibility mechanism experiment. Besides, if the USA implements its NDC as intended in scenario 4, USA’s GDP will contract by 0.14%, while its welfare will contract by $74.24 billion. However, if the USA does not implement its NDC as in scenario 3, its GDP will contract by 0.07%, while its welfare will contract by $4.46 billion. Consequently, the USA’s opportunity cost of carbon dioxide emission reduction will be in the form of a decline in domestic output of 38.07% and 5.71% in coal, and the related contraction of 6.87% and 1.61% in oil, 61.23% and 9.62% in gas, 17.41% and 1.88% in oil products, 20.39%, and 2.92% in electricity, and 10.35% and o.37% in transport services, under carbon dioxide emission reduction with no use of flexibility mechanism and emission trading experiments, respectively. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333503&r=mac |
| By: | N.BECHICHI (Insee); M. FABRE (Insee); T. OLIVIA (Insee) |
| Abstract: | Ce document de travail détaille l’exercice de projection de la population active en France par âge quinquennal à l’horizon 2080. Cet exercice s’appuie sur le scénario central des dernières projections de la population (Algava et Blanpain, 2021a, b). Jusqu’à 55 ans, le taux d’activité est projeté en prolongeant les tendances observées. Pour les tranches d’âge supérieures à 55 ans, le taux d’activité est projeté à l’aide du modèle de microsimulation Destinie (Blanchet et al., 2011) de manière à tenir compte de l’influence des règles de liquidation des pensions sur les comportements d’activité des seniors. L’ensemble des hypothèses et scénarios retenus dans le cadre de ces projections de population active a été validé au sein d’un groupe de travail réunissant des experts de différents organismes. La population active devrait continuer de progresser durant les deux décennies à venir mais à un rythme plus lent que lors de la décennie passée : + 20 000 actifs par an en moyenne jusqu’en 2040 contre + 90 000 actifs par an en moyenne entre 2011 et 2021. Dans ce scénario, la tendance s’inverserait à partir de 2040, avec une baisse annuelle moyenne d’environ 50 000 personnes actives jusqu’en 2050. La baisse s’atténuerait ensuite jusqu’en 2065 avant de s’intensifier à nouveau pour atteindre un rythme d’environ – 80 000 personnes par an en moyenne entre 2065 et 2080. Ainsi, en raison du vieillissement de la population et de la baisse du taux d’activité global qu’il engendre, la population active passerait par un pic de 30, 5 millions d’actifs en 2040 avant de décroître jusqu’à 28, 3 millions d’actifs à l’horizon de projection en 2080. |
| Keywords: | Projections, Population active, Démographie, Vieillissement |
| JEL: | J11 J14 J21 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nse:doctra:2022-06&r=mac |
| By: | Carmichael, Donna |
| Abstract: | The emergence of the asset economy in advanced capitalist countries has enabled significant asset accumulation by high‐wealth individuals, and the rise of finance has provided new, profitable investment vehicles for those with investable capital. This accumulation process has been described as a form of compensatory logic to achieve protection from future risks, especially in the current neoliberal environment with governments reducing state pensions while promoting tax‐deductible private investments as a substitute for state provision. This article reports the results of qualitative research into the private wealth accumulation attitudes and behaviours of high‐wealth individuals and their worries about achieving a comfortable retirement despite their substantial wealth holdings. Although the interviewees reside within the top 5% of the wealth distribution in the UK and would be expected to feel confident that their wealth will be sufficient to support their retirement needs, they convey a sense of uneasiness and concern that they will still not have enough to support their expected retirement lifestyles. In response to this perceived risk, these high‐wealth individuals engage in a variety of what I call “de‐risking” behaviours with the goal of mitigating the risk of insufficient wealth to support retirement. The article contributes to our understanding of the processes utilised by high‐wealth individuals to help ensure they have sufficient wealth to support their desired comfortable retirement by engaging in strategies intended to de‐risk their financial lives. |
| Keywords: | de-risking; financialisation; high‐wealth individuals; inequality; perceived risk; returement; wealth accumulation; de‐risking; retirement |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2023–02–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:118177&r=mac |
| By: | Phoebe W Ishak (Freie Universität Berlin); Mohammad Reza Farzanegan (Philipps Universität Marburg = Philipps University of Marburg) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we look at how oil price shocks affect the incidence of protests in a country and how the size of a country's shadow economy influences this relationship. Using panel data from 144 countries, from the period of 1991-2015, we find evidence that negative oil price shocks significantly increase protests in countries with small shadow economies. The effect dissipates as the size of the shadow economy increases and eventually vanishes in countries with a shadow economy representing more than 35% of gross domestic product. Our analysis departs from existing literature by emphasizing the moderating role of a shadow economy on the effects of negative oil shocks on the incidence of protests in oil-dependent economies. The results are robust to various specifications and their broader implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | conflict, oil price shocks, protest, resource curse, shadow economy |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03997877&r=mac |
| By: | Yuichiro Ito (Bank of Japan); Yoshiyasu Kasai (Bank of Japan); Ryotaro Todoroki (Bank of Japan); Akitoshi Toyoda (Bank of Japan); Rikako Horie (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | In September 2022, interest rates in the UK gilt market rose sharply. The steep rise in interest rates caused UK corporate pension funds to face additional margin calls that exceeded their cash reserves, resulting in a temporary liquidity crunch. The reason was that UK corporate pension funds, due in part to a search for yield to resolve funding shortfalls, had increased their reliance on leveraged transactions using derivatives, etc., but lacked sufficient cash reserves and measures to deal with the drying up of liquidity. This episode suggests that even institutional investors who make long-term investments can pose a threat to financial stability. In Japan, however, there has been no excessive search for yield among corporate pension funds. Moreover, the use of leveraged transactions is limited, and corporate pension funds' assets under management are composed of assets that are relatively easy to convert into cash. On the other hand, among life insurers, which, similar to corporate pension plans, have long-term liabilities, the use of leverage transactions has increased somewhat amid the scheduled introduction of new regulations that require the economic value-based valuation of liabilities. However, life insurers' financial soundness and profits have been improving, and their liquidity is fairly robust. |
| Date: | 2023–03–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojrev:rev23e03&r=mac |
| By: | Hisaki KONO; Abu SHONCHOY; Kazushi TAKAHASHI |
| Abstract: | Despite the expansion of microcredit access, its outreach is still limited among farmers. One potential cause is a timing mismatch between cash flow and credit flow. Farmers have little income until their harvest is realized, while standard microcredit requires weekly installment payments. This mismatch causes underinvestment and borrowing for repayment, resulting in lower uptake rates. Furthermore, agricultural investment is sequential, while credit is disbursed as a lump sum. Present-biased (PB) farmers may fail to set aside sufficient money for later investment. To test these predictions, we conducted a randomized control trial modifying standard microcredit targeted at tenant farmers by setting repayment schedules to one-time repayment after harvest and making loan disbursement sequential. Discarding weekly repayment increased uptake and borrower’s satisfaction without worsening repayment rates. Sequential disbursement increased later investments among PB borrowers and reduced loan sizes. We attribute the loan size reduction to the option value: Sequential disbursement allowed borrowers to adjust the total loan size after observing credit demand shocks, eliminating the need for precautionary borrowing. Calibrated models are used to evaluate counterfactual credit designs, showing that letting borrowers set the credit limit is beneficial for PB borrowers, while credit lines will be suboptimal for PB borrowers. |
| Keywords: | Microcredit; Timing mismatch, Commitment; Option value; Precautionary borrowing |
| JEL: | G21 O16 Q14 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kue:epaper:e-22-013&r=mac |
| By: | Sampson, Thomas |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the contribution of technology gaps to international income inequality. I develop an endogenous growth model where cross-country differences in R&D efficiency and cross-industry differences in innovation and adoption opportunities together determine equilibrium technology gaps, trade patterns and income inequality. Countries with higher R&D efficiency are richer and have comparative advantage in more innovation-dependent industries. I calibrate R&D efficiency by country and innovation-dependence by industry using R&D, patent and bilateral trade data. Counterfactual analysis implies technology gaps account for one-quarter to one-third of nominal wage variation within the OECD. |
| Keywords: | technology gaps; development accounting; comparative advantage; innovation; technology diffusion; endogenous growth |
| JEL: | D21 D24 D31 F14 O31 O33 O47 |
| Date: | 2023–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:117370&r=mac |
| By: | Trang, Luong; Birur, Dileep; Lal, Pankaj |
| Abstract: | Vaccines for the coronavirus illness (COVID-19) have offered hope for better limiting the pandemic, which had infected over 300 million people and killed over 5 million as of 13 Jan 2022. Currently, 19 economies in the area have approved at least one of these vaccinations, but the number of national approvals for accessible vaccines is projected to rise. This paper endeavors to quantify COVID-19's potential global economy under four different vaccination scenarios. The objective of the paper is to analyze the economywide impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy, evaluate the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccinations towards economic recovery, and address vaccine inequity among the developing countries with high COVID-19 infection rates by utilizing a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database. The model comprehends the economic interactions due to COVID-19 infection as well as vaccination rates based on the inter-regional and inter-industry relationships. This study showed the impact of the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy. Most of the impacts on their GDP were driven by the economic consequences of reduced labor supply and productivity in various economies. Moreover, our results propose that the COVID-19 vaccine strongly affects economic activity. When the vaccination rates hit much higher levels, people will be more comfortable returning to the new normal with substantial labor productivity gain across all industries. Labor participation and productivity are projected to increase significantly with higher vaccination rates. Relatively lower vaccination rates in some developing countries had shown a slowdown in overall global economic recovery. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Health Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333403&r=mac |
| By: | Perona, Mathieu |
| Abstract: | En 2022, nous avons ajouté à notre tableau de bord une question inédite : Si vous aviez le choix et indépendamment des contingences matérielles, dans quel pays aimeriez-vous vivre ? Les Français manifestent une appétence limitée pour l’ailleurs. Une grosse minorité d’entre eux choisirait de rester en France, avec une propension plus forte chez les plus âgés, les moins diplômés et les plus optimistes quant à l’avenir du pays. Pour les autres, leur destination ressemble beaucoup à la France. Dans pratiquement toutes les classes d’âge ou de revenu, c’est le Canada qui arrive en tête, concurrencé par l’Europe du Sud : l’Espagne, Italie, Portugal. Au travers de la société française, ce sont essentiellement les mêmes six pays qui arrivent en tête, dans un ordre qui varie légèrement selon l’âge et le niveau de diplôme. |
| Keywords: | Pays, émigration, bien-être |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notobe:2306&r=mac |
| By: | Dupraz, Yannick |
| Abstract: | Vellore Arthi, Brian Beach and W. Walker Hanlon (2022) investigate the effect of the Lancashire Cotton Famine on mortality, accounting for the migration response to the downturn. They use difference-indifferences to estimate the effect of the cotton famine on mortality. To account for the migration response to the cotton famine, they construct a linked dataset giving mortality rates by district of residence during the cotton famine, rather than by district of residence at the time of death. They find that the cotton famine increased mortality in cotton-textile producing districts, and that accounting for migration matters, in the sense that their estimates would have been markedly different had they not accounted for it. I check that ABH results are fully reproducible using their data and code, and that their claims are robust to (1) decreasing the age window for building the linked dataset, (2) modifying the specification and (3) computing different standard errors. The only significant discrepancy in results is that I find stronger effects of the cotton famine when I decrease the age window for building the linked dataset, likely because this reduces measurement errors. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:25&r=mac |
| By: | Liu, K.; Prommawin, B.; Schroyen, F. |
| Abstract: | Exploiting the 2001 universal health insurance reform in Thailand as a source of identification, we estimate the effects of health insurance coverage on agricultural production decisions and welfare. Our estimates suggest that the reform led to long-run increases in total cultivation investments and output, and that households shifted their cultivation portfolio towards riskier crops. We explain these findings using a model of agricultural investment, highlighting the important roles of health insurance in terms of mitigating background medical expenditure risk and improving health. We also find that the reform improved households’ welfare by reducing debts and defaults on loans. |
| Keywords: | Health insurance, Risk-taking, Cultivation, Investments. |
| JEL: | D1 G5 H51 I13 Q12 |
| Date: | 2023–03–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2327&r=mac |
| By: | Sánchez, Marco V.; Cicowiez, Martín; Molinas, José |
| Abstract: | Paraguay mostró un crecimiento económico importante entre el 2010 y el 2019, a pesar de cierta contracción en el 2019, en el cual la agricultura contribuyó significativamente. Las proyecciones apuntan a una recuperación económica desde el año 2021, pero surge la pregunta de cuáles podrían ser los motores del nuevo crecimiento. Las carencias de la agricultura, principalmente en la agricultura familiar campesina, son preocupantes. Falta nueva inversión en infraestructura productiva, asistencia técnica, tecnología, créditos y acceso a insumos e implementos modernos. La inversión pública no solo ha sido reducida, sino que pareciera que la agricultura no entra notablemente en los planes de inversión futuros. Este estudio presenta escenarios prospectivos que proporcionan información sobre dónde, dentro de la agricultura paraguaya, se deberían priorizar los pocos recursos de inversión pública que se destinarían al sector. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Public Economics |
| Date: | 2022–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:faoets:330801&r=mac |
| By: | Timothy R. Wojan |
| Abstract: | A lack of transparency in specification testing is a major contributor to the replicability crisis that has eroded the credibility of findings for informing policy. How diversity is associated with outcomes of interest is particularly susceptible to the production of nonreplicable findings given the very large number of alternative measures applied to several policy relevant attributes such as race, ethnicity, gender, or foreign-born status. The very large number of alternative measures substantially increases the probability of false discovery where nominally significant parameter estimates—selected through numerous though unreported specification tests—may not be representative of true associations in the population. The purpose of this registered report is to: 1) select a single measure of ownership diversity that satisfies explicit, requisite axioms; 2) split the Annual Business Survey (ABS) into an exploratory sample (35%) used in this analysis and a confirmatory sample (65%) that will be accessed only after the publication of this report; 3) regress self-reported new-to-market innovation on the diversity measure along with industry and firm-size controls; 4) pass through those variables meeting precision and magnitude criteria for hypothesis testing using the confirmatory sample; and 5) document the full set of hypotheses to be tested in the final analysis along with a discussion of the false discovery and family-wise error rate corrections to be applied. The discussion concludes with the added value of implementing split sample designs within the Federal Statistical Research Data Center system where access to data is strictly controlled. |
| Keywords: | Split-sample, false discovery, self-reported innovation, women and minority owned business, hypothesis testing |
| JEL: | O3 J15 J16 C12 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:23-11&r=mac |
| By: | Nguyen, John (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses for the first time, the relationship between private health insurance and household savings behaviour in Australia. Using the nationally representative longitudinal dataset from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, we estimate the effect of private health insurance on savings, wealth accumulation and different types of asset holdings. We find strong evidence of a positive relationship between private health insurance and savings using a variety of panel fixed-effects, instrumental and non- instrumental methods. The magnitude of the effect is larger for households that do not receive public transfers, reside in a major city, have better health or have completed tertiary education. Our findings show that time preference is a partial mediation channel between private health insurance and savings, resulting in larger effects for non-financial asset holdings driven mostly by real estate wealth. |
| Keywords: | Private health insurance ; savings, wealth accumulation ; Australia JEL classifications: I13 ; D14 ; E21 ; G51 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:wrkesp:48&r=mac |
| By: | Paul-Olivier Klein (Laboratoire de Recherche Magellan - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Lyon); Laurent Weill (EM Strasbourg - École de Management de Strasbourg, Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Strasbourg) |
| Abstract: | Is bank profitability beneficial for economic growth? While policymakers have shown major concerns for low levels of bank profitability, the influence of bank profitability on economic growth remains an open question. While it can favor economic growth by strengthening financial stability, it can also result from lower competition and as such depress economic growth. We provide the first empirical investigation to appraise the impact of bank profitability on economic growth. We examine a panel of 132 countries during the period 1999-2013 using generalized method of moments (GMM) dynamic panel techniques. We document a positive impact of bank profitability on economic growth in both the short-run and the long-run. These findings are robust to controlling for the dynamics of banks' profits. They are also robust to alternative measures, specifications, and time periods. They support the view that bank profitability should be promoted by authorities for growth concerns. |
| Keywords: | Bank profitability, Economic growth, Finance-growth nexus |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03955647&r=mac |
| By: | Niklas Gohl (University of Potsdam, Berlin School of Economics, DIW) |
| Abstract: | Leveraging two cohort-specific pension reforms, this paper estimates the forward-looking effects of an exogenous increase in the working horizon on (un)employment behaviour for individuals with a long remaining statutory working life. Using difference-in-differences and regression discontinuity approaches based on administrative and survey data, I show that a longer legal working horizon increases individuals’ subjective expectations about the length of their work life, raises the probability of employment, decreases the probability of unemployment, and increases the intensity of job search among the unemployed. Heterogeneity analyses show that the demonstrated employment effects are strongest for women and in occupations with comparatively low physical intensity, i.e., occupations that can be performed at older ages. |
| Keywords: | retirement policies, employment, DiD |
| JEL: | J24 J26 H21 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pot:cepadp:63&r=mac |
| By: | Baldos, Uris Lantz; Chepeliev, Maksym; Haqiqi, Iman; Hertel, Thomas; Liu, Jing; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique |
| Abstract: | Agriculture is the largest emitter of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, but it seems unlikely that these emissions will be covered by climate policies in the near future. However, even if carbon pricing were applied to CO2 emissions alone, as is the case with the EU emissions trading scheme (ETS), the agricultural sector would be impacted through the increasing costs of intermediate energy inputs, rising fertilizer prices and changing food demand in response to changing prices and incomes. Considering the tremendous heterogeneity of agricultural production systems across the continental U.S., it is also important to not only understand the potential macroeconomic and sectoral implications of the climate mitigation measures, but also the spatial distribution of the corresponding impacts. In this paper, we apply a harmonized macro-gridded modeling framework to provide an assessment of spatially distributed spillover effects of climate mitigation policies on U.S. crop sector. Our results suggest that even if mitigation measures would be implemented in a form of CO2 pricing only (i.e. non-CO2 GHGs would not be directly targeted), the crop sector would be impacted through a number of channels, with rising fertilizer prices being the key one. Overall, we find substantial environmental co-benefits achieved through this channel and resulting in a reduction of cropland use, nitrogen leaching and water withdrawals. In particular, we find that such a climate policy would yield substantial water quality co-benefits, mitigating nitrate leaching to a greater extent than current voluntary environmental policies targeting water quality directly. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333502&r=mac |
| By: | Raphael Guionie (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - ONIRIS - École nationale vétérinaire, agroalimentaire et de l'alimentation Nantes-Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - IUML - FR 3473 Institut universitaire Mer et Littoral - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Université - pôle Sciences et technologie - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Nantes Univ - ECN - Nantes Université - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Rodica Loisel (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - ONIRIS - École nationale vétérinaire, agroalimentaire et de l'alimentation Nantes-Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - IUML - FR 3473 Institut universitaire Mer et Littoral - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Université - pôle Sciences et technologie - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Nantes Univ - ECN - Nantes Université - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Lionel Lemiale (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - ONIRIS - École nationale vétérinaire, agroalimentaire et de l'alimentation Nantes-Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - IUML - FR 3473 Institut universitaire Mer et Littoral - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Université - pôle Sciences et technologie - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Nantes Univ - ECN - Nantes Université - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Mathias Guerineau (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - ONIRIS - École nationale vétérinaire, agroalimentaire et de l'alimentation Nantes-Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - IUML - FR 3473 Institut universitaire Mer et Littoral - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Université - pôle Sciences et technologie - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Nantes Univ - ECN - Nantes Université - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université) |
| Abstract: | Energy industry represents roughly 2% of the GDP in energy importing countries (France, 2019). Yet any energy shock can lead to massive disruptions in the economy, since some energy vectors have features of General Purpose Technology and Source (Noce, 2015). We use input-output models to assess impacts on the French economy from substitution of imported natural gas with domestic low-carbon hydrogen. A new sector producing hydrogen is introduced to supply petroleum refining and ammonia sectors, based on domestic inputs exclusively. Two input-output models are built, a demand-driven model for the emergence of the H2 sector (investment phase), and a mixed model for H2 production (operating phase). Results show that the energy shock (350 kt of low-carbon H2 per year) generates significant growth (1 bln€ of GDP) and jobs (12, 000), but needs ambitious planning for industrial development. Firstly, the investment phase triggers industries such as machinery and equipment, electrical equipment, construction and metal products manufacturing, suggesting that massive needs for labor requires more attractiveness to make the hydrogen infrastructure effective. Secondly, the hydrogen production being electricity intensive, the model shows very sensitive to this input and to the availability of power plants. At even higher shocks to remove all grey hydrogen in industry (415 kt H2) and steel production (700 kt H2), impressive domestic resources are required along with massive energy planning similar to the French nuclear program over 80s. |
| Keywords: | Input-output approach, linkages, BLI, FLI, gas imports, domestic hydrogen |
| Date: | 2023–03–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04011936&r=mac |
| By: | Allali, Sara |
| Abstract: | This article presents an assessment of the economic implementations of the ongoing African Continental Free Trade Area agreement (AfCFTA) on the Moroccan economy. In this study a two-level economic modeling work has been performed, firstly, beginning with the computable general equilibrium model , followed by a micro-simulation analysis.The implementation of the Agreement would result in the liberalization of trade in goods in conformity with the agreed terms of the AfCFTA; a 50% reduction in actionable trade barriers in the five priority service sectors (tourism, transportation, communication, financial services, and business services), as well as in health and education services that have received special attention due to the coronavirus (COVID-19)-induced crisis and a cut of 50% in actionable NTMs. Following the implementation of the AfCFTA, Morocco's GDP and output, are all expected to increase. On the trade front, a trade distortion in favor of Africa is expected. The second part of the study is conducted through a microsimulation model to assess the effects of AfCFTA on the reduction of poverty and social inequalities in Morocco. In terms of modeling, the approach used is non-parametric (Magher, 1993), capturing changes in the distribution of income as a result of shocks related to the implementation of the Agreement. In terms of outcomes, the impact of the implementation of the AfCFTA on poverty and social inequality in Morocco will be relatively modest. In conclusion, it can be observed that the impact of the AfCFTA will be felt mainly at the macroeconomic level, and more particularly in trade. Indeed, the Agreement will contribute to the expansion of trade between Morocco and the African countries. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333396&r=mac |
| By: | Micha{\l} Barski; Rafa{\l} {\L}ochowski |
| Abstract: | The paper is devoted to the study of the short rate equation of the form $$ dR(t)=F(R(t))dt+\sum_{i=1}^{d}G_i(R(t-))dZ_i(t), \quad R(0)=x\geq 0, \quad t>0, $$ with deterministic functions $F, G_1, ..., G_d$ and independent L\'evy processes of infinite variation $Z_1, ..., Z_d$ with regularly varying Laplace exponents. The equation is supposed to have a nonnegative solution which generates an affine term structure model. A precise form of the generator of $R$ is characterized and a related classification of equations which generate affine models introduced in the spirit of Dai and Singleton \cite{DaiSingleton}. Each class is shown to have its own canonical representation which is an equation with the same drift and the jump diffusion part based on a L\'evy process taking values in $\mathbb{R}^{g}, 1\leq g\leq d$, with independent coordinates being stable processes with stability indices in the range $(1, 2]$. Numerical calibration results of canonical representations to the market term structure of interest rates are presented and compared with the classical CIR model. The paper generalizes the classical results on the CIR model from \cite{CIR}, as well as on its extended version from \cite{BarskiZabczykCIR} and \cite{BarskiZabczyk} where $Z$ was a one-dimensional L\'evy process. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.08477&r=mac |
| By: | van den Berg, Gerard J. (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); von Hinke, Stephanie (School of Economics, University of Bristol); H. Wang, R. Adele (School of Economics, University of Bristol.) |
| Abstract: | Maternal sugar consumption in utero may have a variety of effects on offspring. We exploit the abolishment of the rationing of sweet confectionery in the UK on April 24, 1949, and its subsequent reintroduction some months later, in an era of otherwise uninterrupted rationing of confectionery (1942-1953), sugar (1940-1953) and many other foods, and we consider effects on late-life cardiovascular disease, BMI, height, type-2 diabetes and the intake of sugar, fat and carbohydrates, as well as cognitive outcomes and birth weight. We use individual-level data from the UK Biobank for cohorts born between April 1947–May 1952. We also explore whether one’s genetic “predisposition” to the outcome can moderate the effects of prenatal sugar exposure. We find that prenatal exposure to derationing increases education and reduces BMI and sugar consumption at higher ages, in line with the “developmental origins” explanatory framework, and that the sugar effects are stronger for those who are genetically “predisposed” to sugar consumption. |
| Keywords: | Nutrition; food consumption; gene-environment interplay; education; developmental origins |
| JEL: | D45 I12 I15 I18 |
| Date: | 2023–03–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2023_005&r=mac |
| By: | Beasley, Elizabeth; Blanc, Corin; Perona, Mathieu |
| Abstract: | Parmi les questions de notre tableau de bord du bien-être en France, c’est celle qui interroge les gens sur leur sentiment de sécurité dans leur quartier qui fait apparaître le plus grand écart entre hommes et femmes. Cette différence a été décrite depuis longtemps et occupe aujourd’hui une place importante dans l’appréhension des questions de sécurité, par exemple dans l’état des lieux de l’Insee et du Ministère de l’Intérieur. Nous entendons ici enrichir cette vision de trois éléments : Positionner la France par rapport aux autres pays européens au regard de l’écart de sécurité ressentie entre hommes et femmes ; souligner l’ampleur du gradient social qui lie, en France plus qu’ailleurs en Europe, faibles revenus et sentiment d’insécurité des femmes ; relever les dimensions locales non seulement du sentiment d’insécurité, mais du gradient lui-même : selon le lieu où elles habitent, le sentiment de sécurité des femmes dépend ou non de leur revenu |
| Keywords: | Bien-être, sécurité, gender gap, femmes |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notobe:2305&r=mac |
| By: | Niels Johannesen; Daniel Reck; Max Risch; Joel Slemrod; John Guyton; Patrick Langetieg |
| Abstract: | This paper uses account-level information, reported to the IRS by foreign financial institutions under the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA), to produce new evidence on the foreign financial wealth of U.S. households. We find that U.S. taxpayers hold around $4 trillion in foreign accounts, almost half in jurisdictions usually considered tax havens. Combining the FATCA reports with other administrative tax data and tracing account ownership through partnerships, we document a steep income gradient in the propensity to hold assets in foreign financial institutions. Specifically, more than 60% of the individuals in the top 0.01% of the income distribution own foreign accounts, the vast majority in tax havens and more than half through a partnership. We discuss the likely implications of these findings for the overall impact of FATCA on tax compliance and government revenue. |
| JEL: | H24 H26 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31055&r=mac |
| By: | Baek, Yaein (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Han, Minsoo (Department of International Trade, Inha University); Kim, Wongi (Department of Economics, Sungshin Women’s University); Kim, Hyunsuk (Int’l Macroeconomics Team, Int’l Macroeconomics & Finance Dept) |
| Abstract: | There has been a significant decline in the global labor share, leading to numerous studies about the cause of this drop. The labor share is used as one of the main indicators of inequality because a decrease in the labor share can lead to aggravation of income inequality. This is because low-skilled workers can be greatly affected by such a decline in the labor share and the main source of in-come for the low-income class, including the self-employed, is labor income. Among various indicators of inequality, this study analyzes the determinants of the change in labor share. Technological changes such as adoption of robots, advancements in information and communications technology (ICT) and the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) are expected to change the labor market. Hence, this study analyzes the impact of technological changes on labor share and suggests policy responses.(the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | Labor Share; Skill-biased Technological Change; Robots; Income Inequality |
| Date: | 2023–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2023_001&r=mac |
| By: | Huh, Mungu (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Kim, Yunsoo (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Concerns are mounting over the potential for weak future growth as the Korean economy faces a wide range of structural issues including an aging society, a crisis in key regional industries, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to these concerns, the Korean government has established innovation growth as a national priority. In this essay, we extract regional innovation growth capability indices for 17 municipalities in order to analyze regional variation, spatial distribution, and characteristics of innovation growth capability. Based on this data, we provide recommendations for policy responses that are capable of promoting innovation growth capability. The analysis shows that the polarization in innovation growth capability between the Seoul Capital Area (SCA) and the province of Chungcheong and regions outside the SCA is deepening. This regional disparity in innovation growth capability has the potential to lead to a widening economic divide between regions. In the conclusion of the paper we identify the implications for regional innovation policy carried by the analytical findings. |
| Keywords: | regional economics; regional growth; regional innovation; regional policy; COVID-19; demographic change; population aging; population decline; innovation; innovation policy; Korea; regional disparity; regional inequality |
| JEL: | O11 O15 O18 O21 O25 O30 O33 O38 O47 R10 R11 R12 R13 R23 |
| Date: | 2021–07–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:2021_006&r=mac |
| By: | Aragie, Emerta; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James |
| Abstract: | One of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is reducing food loss and waste (FLW) across all stages of food value chains, including the on-farm production, the off-farm postharvest, processing, and distribution, and the household consumption stages. We employ general equilibrium models for Bangladesh, Kenya, and Nigeria to assess the economywide implications of reducing FLW at different stages of value chains. Halving FLW results in GDP increases of between 1.1 and 2 percent, with up to 13 million people lifted out of poverty across the three countries. Diets also improve – especially in Kenya and Nigeria – due to greater availability and lower prices of healthy foods such as fruits and vegetables. Although most of the gains originate from reducing FLW in the on-farm production stage, strong intersectoral linkages mean around 30 percent of measured GDP gains are realized in non-agricultural sectors. Reducing waste at the final consumption stage has small negative impacts on GDP as households purchase less food without reducing their food intake. We conclude that the significant economywide gains provide a justification for adopting FLW reduction strategies, although costing the policy and investment options needed to reduce FLW is an important area for future research. |
| Keywords: | BANGLADESH; SOUTH ASIA; ASIA; KENYA; EAST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; NIGERIA; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; Sustainable Development Goals; postharvest losses; food waste; value chain; general equilibrium model; economy; poverty; diets; policies; food systems |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2173&r=mac |
| By: | Changli He (Tianjin University of Finance and Economics); Jian Kang (Dongbei University of Finance and Economics); Annastiina Silvennoinen (Queensland University of Technology); Timo Teräsvirta (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper the relationship between the surface air temperatures in 28 European cities and towns and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are modelled using the Vector Seasonal Shifting Mean and Covariance Autoregressive model, extended to contain exogenous variables. The model also incorporates season-specific spatial correlations that are functions of latitudinal, longitudinal, and elevation differences of the various locations. The empirical results, based on long monthly time series, agree with previous ones in the literature in that the NAO is found to have its strongest effect on temperatures during winter months. The transition from the winter to the summer is not monotonic, however. The strength of the error correlations of the model between locations is inversely related to the distance between the locations, with a slower decay in the east-west than north-south direction. Altitude differences also matter but only during the winter half of the year. |
| Keywords: | Changing seasonality, climate change, nonlinear model, spatial correlation, vector smooth transition autoregression |
| JEL: | C32 C52 Q54 |
| Date: | 2023–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:aarhec:2023-03&r=mac |
| By: | De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Imbert, Clement; Spinnewijn, Johannes; Tsankova, Teodora; Luts, Maarten |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of simplification, deterrence and tax morale on tax compliance. We ran four natural field experiments varying the communication of the tax administration with the universe of income taxpayers in Belgium throughout the tax process. A consistent picture emerges across experiments: (i) simplifying communi- cation substantially increases compliance, (ii) deterrence messages have an additional positive effect, (iii) invoking tax morale is not effective, and often backfires. A discon- tinuity in enforcement intensity, combined with the experimental variation, allows us to compare simplification with standard enforcement measures. We find that simpli- fication is far more cost-effective, allowing for substantial savings on enforcement costs. |
| Keywords: | tax compliance; field experiments; simplification; enforcement |
| JEL: | C93 D91 H20 |
| Date: | 2021–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:106265&r=mac |
| By: | Olivia Guillon (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - LABEX ICCA - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord) |
| Abstract: | En se concentrant sur l'exigence de professionnalisation en BUT et la place qu'y occupent les compétences communicationnelles, cet article interroge les éventuels repositionnements de modèles économiques de l'offre de ressources. Il vise plus spécifiquement à appréhender le travail des auteurs et sa valorisation comme des révélateurs des tensions dans les stratégies des offreurs de ressources en IUT. D'un point de vue empirique, cette analyse socio-économique s'appuie sur une pluralité de données collectées entre 2019 et 2021 : entretiens auprès d'enseignants de BUT, d'auteurs de manuels et de responsables éditoriaux, newsletters et sites web des éditeurs et de certains auteurs, sites compagnons des manuels. Elle aboutit à plusieurs résultats. Premièrement, les modèles économiques de l'édition de ressources reflètent un isomorphisme institutionnel : les structures organisationnelles et les jeux des acteurs sont plus influencés par le champ institutionnel et la recherche de légitimation que par la quête d'un fonctionnement efficient. Ensuite les auteurs semblent avoir un rapport ambivalent avec l'exigence de professionnalisation, que le circuit éditorial et le rôle traditionnel de l'auteur rendent difficile à satisfaire. Enfin, la place du numérique dans l'offre est un marqueur important de l'évolution (ou de la non-évolution) des modèles économiques. |
| Keywords: | digital, business models, communication skills, IUT, resources, ressources, numériques, modèles économiques, compétences communicationnelles |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04001392&r=mac |
| By: | Axana Dalle; Philippe Sterkens; Stijn Baert (-) |
| Abstract: | Many OECD countries invest heavily in labour-market programsto prolong careers. Although active labourmarket programs designed for this purpose have frequently been evaluated, less is known about the employment impact of more passive regimes that make labour-market participation later in life feasible. This study focuses on the latter by investigating the hiring opportunities of senior job candidates who partake in a system that ensures older labour-market participants a company supplement in addition to unemployment benefits when they are dismissed. Therefore, we conduct a state-of-the-art scenario experiment in which 360 genuine recruiters evaluate fictitious job candidates who have spent varying durations unemployed in regimes with and without the company supplement. Because they evaluate candidates with respect to both hireability and productivity perceptions, we can identify the mechanisms at play. Overall, we find no evidence of employer-side stigma hindering the re-employment of older unemployed in the program. On the contrary, the longer-term unemployed even benefit – in terms of hiring chances – from partaking in this regime because it seemingly mitigates the regular stigmatisation of long-term unemployment, especially for men. More concretely, recruiters judge the long-term unemployed more mildly, especially with respect to perceived flexibility, when they receive the company supplement and still apply. |
| Keywords: | Hiring discrimination; Signalling effect; Income support; Labour market program; Vignettes |
| JEL: | J71 J32 J14 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:23/1066&r=mac |
| By: | Alicia LEFRANCOIS (CRIISEA - Centre de Recherche sur les Institutions, l'Industrie et les Systèmes Économiques d'Amiens - UR UPJV 3908 - UPJV - Université de Picardie Jules Verne); Léa Pecjak (CRIISEA - Centre de Recherche sur les Institutions, l'Industrie et les Systèmes Économiques d'Amiens - UR UPJV 3908 - UPJV - Université de Picardie Jules Verne, ESC Amiens, Laboratoire CERM); Sophie Changeur (CRIISEA - Centre de Recherche sur les Institutions, l'Industrie et les Systèmes Économiques d'Amiens - UR UPJV 3908 - UPJV - Université de Picardie Jules Verne) |
| Abstract: | Les marques premier prix voient leurs ventes reculer d'année en année. L'une des causes identifiées est leur positionnement "entrée de gamme" qui ne correspond plus aux attentes de montée en qualité de nombreux consommateurs et ce, tant au niveau des attributs intrinsèques qu'extrinsèques des produits. Un début de solution pourrait être de modifier les packagings des marques premier prix afin qu'ils véhiculent un signal de meilleure qualité. Le fait que cette stratégie puisse, dans l'absolu, s'avérer contre-productive (i.e.: image prix, concurrence des autres MDD) renforce l'intérêt de s'y intéresser plus en profondeur sous l'angle de la transgression de marque positive. Au moyen d'une méthodologie qualitative alliant techniques projectives et entretiens semi-directifs, nous cherchons à comprendre comment les consommateurs perçoivent et appréhendent un packaging de marque premier prix qui transgresse les normes en cherchant à véhiculer un signal de plus grande qualité. A terme, nous présenterons les caractéristiques extrinsèques d'un packaging de marque premier prix qui puisse transmettre un message de qualité tout en respectant le positionnement "entrée de gamme" du produit. Ce travail mobilise différents pans de la littérature marketing (les marques premier prix et les transgressions de marque notamment) auxquels il contribue et nous permettra de formuler des recommandations aux praticiens du marketing pour le travail sur un attribut extrinsèque tel que le packaging des marques 1 er prix, modifiant leur perception purement économique, et contribuant ainsi à leur relance. |
| Date: | 2022–12–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03958136&r=mac |
| By: | Jean-Michel Severino (I&P - Investisseurs et Partenaires); Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International) |
| Abstract: | Public financial flows to developing countries serve a multitude of purposes, the growing number of which has led over time to an incoherent institutional landscape of international financing. Institutional fragmentation has profound consequences for the effectiveness of policies. Starting from the achievements of official development assistance, our reflection seeks to clarify the aims of planetary collective action, by distinguishing three main objectives: ensuring the convergence of income between developing countries and industrialized countries; ensuring a foundation of global solidarity; fight against global public evils. This mapping allows us to present a first sketch of what could be an inventory of international financial flows according to a new nomenclature that would be collectively accepted by donors and recipients of flows. But since there are overlaps between the objectives, it is not possible to rigorously separate the objectives of growth, redistribution and the management of global public goods. We offer slightly more complex but still manageable procedures for tracking international flows. Accurate mapping of financial flows could avoid two main pitfalls of the current system, an excessively compassionate vision of the needs of low-income countries at the expense of the requirement to catch up on their economies, and in the face of the climate emergency, priority given to climate change mitigation projects at the expense of those specifically aimed at adaptation in low-income countries or more generally to their development. |
| Abstract: | Les flux financiers publics à destination des pays en développement répondent à une multitude de finalités, dont le nombre croissant a entraîné avec le temps, un paysage institutionnel du financement international peu cohérent. Le morcellement institutionnel a de profondes conséquences sur l'efficacité des politiques. Partant de l'acquis de l'aide publique au développement, notre réflexion s'attache à clarifier les finalités de l'action collective planétaire, en distinguant trois grands objectifs : assurer la convergence des revenus entre les pays en développement et les pays industrialisés ; assurer un socle de solidarité mondial ; lutter contre les maux publics globaux. Cette cartographie nous permet de présenter une première esquisse de ce que pourrait être un recensement des flux financiers internationaux selon une nouvelle nomenclature qui serait collectivement acceptée par les bailleurs et les destinataires des flux. Mais comme il existe des chevauchements entre les objectifs, il n'est pas possible de rigoureusement séparer les objectifs de croissance, de redistribution et de gestion des biens publics mondiaux. Nous proposons des procédures un peu plus complexes mais néanmoins gérables de suivi des flux internationaux. La cartographie précise des flux financiers pourrait éviter deux principaux écueils du système actuel, une vision excessivement compassionnelle des besoins des pays à faible revenu aux dépens de l'exigence de rattrapage de leurs économies, et face à l'urgence climatique une priorité donnée aux projets d'atténuation du réchauffement climatique aux dépens de ceux spécifiquement destinés l'adaptation des pays à faible revenu, ou plus généralement à leur développement. |
| Date: | 2023–03–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04013196&r=mac |
| By: | Bisset, Jordan; Czarnitzki, Dirk; Doherr, Thorsten |
| Abstract: | Previous work suggests a general uncertainty surrounding the migration process acts as a barrier to outmigration. In this paper, we argue that this barrier is exacerbated when relative economic policy uncertainty is higher in the target country and mitigated when relatively higher in the origin country. We use a novel inventor career panel to observe inventor migration from 12 European countries between 1997 and 2012 and test the premise that a higher relative uncertainty in the origin country raises the probability of inventor outmigration. Our results suggest a 1 standard deviation increase in the relative uncertainty of the home country is associated with a near 20% increase in the probability of inventor outmigration. The relationship is highly non-linear, with relative uncertainty values in the top centile leading to an increase of over 70%. The observed effects can be amplified or dampened by inventor specific characteristics, as would be expected given the prior art. |
| Keywords: | Outmigration, Uncertainty, Human Capital, Inventors |
| JEL: | J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:23004&r=mac |
| By: | Wendy Brau (Department of Economics, Universidad de San Andres) |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to measure the dimensionality of welfare by using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with sparse loadings, which combines PCA with regularization techniques, and uses nonlinear PCA techniques to handle mixed type data. Assuming that welfare can be represented by a subspace of a given data set, the hypothesis of multidimensionality of welfare states that more than one interpretable dimension is necessary to describe it. An empirical application to Argentina’s Permanent Household Survey shows the limitations of PCA and the advantages of PCA with sparse loadings in determining the relevant subset of variables for assessing welfare. I find such subset among 126 mixed type variables, which could be useful for implementing shorter surveys. I conclude that welfare is multidimensional, but there is room for dimensionality reduction: with three sparse principal components, it is possible to explain 20 % of the variance using only 35 % of the variables, and 30 % of the variance using half of them. With a single sparse principal component, it is possible to explain 20 % of the variability in welfare using half of the variables. |
| Keywords: | Welfare |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sad:ypaper:5&r=mac |
| By: | Avila Uribe, Antonio |
| Abstract: | A growing literature has documented sizeable negative effects of air pollution on individuals’ health, labour market performance and human capital accumulation, all determinants of a country’s overall economic activity. So what are the effects of air pollution on aggregate economic production? To answer this, I study the effects of PM2.5 on county-level GDP, GDP per capita, and GDP per employee in the United States (2006-2018) by exploiting a detailed dataset of yearly air pollution exposure by county and a set of instrumental variables. In my main specification, I use exogenous year-to-year variation in wildfire-induced PM2.5 exposure from air trajectories simulations. Contrary to recent studies in China and the EU, which find large negative effects in all regions, my results show no effect for the US. However, these headline results mask spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Economically relevant negative effects appear to be present in rural areas during working days or when base levels or air pollution are above the median, and in the trade sector and educational services. The results are robust to various alternative specifications and alternative instruments previously used in the literature, such as thermal inversions or smoke plume polygons. |
| Keywords: | air pollution; GDP; productivity; US; wildfires |
| JEL: | R11 Q53 Q54 O40 O47 O51 |
| Date: | 2023–03–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:118481&r=mac |
| By: | Stijn Broecke; Marguerita Lane; Morgan Williams |
| Abstract: | New OECD surveys of employers and workers in the manufacturing and finance sectors of seven countries shed new light on the impact that Artificial Intelligence has on the workplace —an under-researched area to date due to lack of data. The findings suggest that both workers and their employers are generally very positive about the impact of AI on performance and working conditions. However, there are also concerns, including about job loss—an issue that should be closely monitored. The surveys also indicate that, while many workers trust their employers when it comes to the implementation of AI in the workplace, more can be done to improve trust. In particular, the surveys show that both training and worker consultation are associated with better outcomes for workers. |
| JEL: | J2 J3 J5 J6 |
| Date: | 2023–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:288-en&r=mac |
| By: | Whitley, Edgar A.; Martinez, Tatiana |
| Abstract: | One of the drivers for pushing for open data as a form of corruption control stems from the belief that in making government operations more transparent, it would be possible to hold public officials more accountable. These large data sets would be open to the public for scrutiny, resulting in lower levels of corruption. Though data quality has been largely studied and many advancements have been made, it has not been extensively applied to open data, with some aspects of data quality receiving more attention than others (namely completeness and timeliness). One key aspect however – accuracy – seems to have been overlooked. This gap resulted in our inquiry: how is accurate open data produced and how might breakdowns in this process introduce opportunities for corruption? We study a government agency situated within the Brazilian Federal Government, where acts of corruption were being committed, to understand in what ways is accuracy compromised. Adopting a Distributed Cognition (DCog) theoretical framework, we found that production of open data is not a neutral activity; instead it is a distributed process performed by individuals and artefacts, highlighting an important and ambiguous role for technology in the fight against corruption. This distributed cognitive process creates opportunities for data to be concealed and misrepresented. Through DCog, two models mapping data production were generated, the combination of which provided an insight into how cognitive processes are distributed, how data flows, is transformed, stored, and processed, and what instances provide opportunities for data inaccuracies and misrepresentations to occur. |
| Keywords: | open data; anticorruption; transparency; data accuracy; distributed cognition |
| JEL: | J50 |
| Date: | 2023–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:118578&r=mac |
| By: | David Ronayne (European School of Management and Technology (ESMT Berlin)); Roberto Veneziani (Queen Mary University of London); William R. Zame (University of California at Los Angeles) |
| Abstract: | Abstract: Anscombe and Aumann (1963) offer a definition of subjective probability in terms of comparisons with objective probabilities. That definition – which has provided the basis for much of the succeeding work on subjective probability – presumes that the subjective probability of an event is independent of the prize consequences of that event, a property we term Prize Independence. We design experiments to test Prize Independence and find that a large fraction of our subjects violate it; thus, they do not have subjective probabilities. These findings raise questions about the empirical relevance of much of the literature on subjective probability. |
| Keywords: | subjective probability, choice under uncertainty, online experiments. |
| JEL: | D01 D81 D84 |
| Date: | 2022–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:940&r=mac |
| By: | Sheila C. Muriel H. (Investigadora Asociada de INESAD) |
| Abstract: | Las Tecnologías de la Información y Comunicaciones (TIC) existentes en la agricultura presentan diversas características y sirven para múltiples propósitos; sistemas de información, sensores inalámbricos, drones, etc., son utilizados para el cuidado de recursos como suelos y agua, la mejora y monitoreo de cultivos y la prevención de riesgos entre otros. De este amplio espectro de posibilidades se realiza el mapeo de posibles herramientas TIC para los productores de quinua del altiplano boliviano, un subconjunto de herramientas enmarcadas según las necesidades y habilidades TIC de los productores, la factibilidad de su implementación, disponibilidad, etc.; Para el reconocimiento de la viabilidad de dichas herramientas se realiza un barrido de información sobre la tecnología creciente y/o en uso a nivel mundial, regional, hasta llegar al sector de interés considerando su disponibilidad a nivel regional, que respeten la forma de cultivo de los productores y que no afecten negativamente la calidad orgánica de la quinua para preservar su mención de origen entre otros. En la esquematización del mapeo se toma como base al Proceso de la Cadena de Suministros con sus componentes básicos: suministros, producción y distribución; buscando tener la perspectiva de un sistema, no solo de sus componentes, sino también la interacción entre los mismos y las influencias de su entorno. Las herramientas presentadas pueden ser resumidas bajo dos perspectivas: herramientas que gestionan la información (como los sistemas de información) y herramientas que recolectan la información (como drones, sensores y tecnología de Identificación Radio Frecuencia -RFID, por sus siglas en inglés-). |
| Keywords: | Tecnologías de la Información y Comunicaciones (TIC), agrotech, agritech, agtech, monitoreo de cultivos, Sistemas de Información. |
| JEL: | O30 O33 Q16 |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adv:wpaper:202203&r=mac |
| By: | Raffaele Mattera; Philipp Otto |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a novel dynamic network autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model based on spatiotemporal ARCH models to forecast volatility in the US stock market. To improve the forecasting accuracy, the model integrates temporally lagged volatility information and information from adjacent nodes, which may instantaneously spill across the entire network. The model is also suitable for high-dimensional cases where multivariate ARCH models are typically no longer applicable. We adopt the theoretical foundations from spatiotemporal statistics and transfer the dynamic ARCH model for processes to networks. This new approach is compared with independent univariate log-ARCH models. We could quantify the improvements due to the instantaneous network ARCH effects, which are studied for the first time in this paper. The edges are determined based on various distance and correlation measures between the time series. The performances of the alternative networks' definitions are compared in terms of out-of-sample accuracy. Furthermore, we consider ensemble forecasts based on different network definitions. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.11064&r=mac |
| By: | Moore, Andrew (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | This article uses economic analysis of the marcher lord actor theorised by sociology literature, particularly the work of Michael Mann (1986), to explain the shifting nature of power in the ancient world. We model the marcher lord to argue that a first mover advantage from developing state institutions first does not bring a lasting military advantage as lesser developed lords located closer to the periphery of a region are better able to diversify their armies. We develop a second model to analyse Mann's strategies of control and a rational calculus of technology adoption to consider whether new empires will emerge to dominate existing empires. We find that advancement does not emanate from the seat of power, rather marcher lords on the periphery of civilisation development have the opportunity to expand leading to them being more innovative and able to shift the centre of power away from stablished empires in later time periods. |
| Keywords: | Marcher Lord ; Michael Mann ; Military Power ; Ancient States JEL classifications: H10 ;N40 ;O33 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:wrkesp:50&r=mac |
| By: | Pablo Zárate (Department of Economics, Universidad de San Andres) |
| Abstract: | Public officers suspected of corruption are often seen consuming conspicuously luxury goods. Since this raises public awareness about them, it can backfire and lead to an investigation that eventually finds them guilty. One plausible explanation to rationalize this behavior is that they are signaling their willingness to be corrupt, to attract the pool of corrupt firms and obtain higher bribes. In this work, we consider a public procurement setting where the government delegates a procurement officer (PO) to run the process. If the cost of the luxury good is low enough, then there exists a separating equilibrium where the corrupt PO signals his type and obtains a higher bribe. Even if the government fixes a budget constraint or maximum price before assigning a PO, a signaling equilibrium can still exist, but with a lower reserve price than socially optimal. Therefore, even though the government can reduce the bribe revenue, corruption and signaling results in aggregate welfare loss. |
| Keywords: | corruption |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sad:ypaper:2&r=mac |
| By: | Rodríguez, Óscar; Rudas, Guillermo; Nieves, Erika; Roa, Julián; Rivera, María Paula |
| Abstract: | Uno de los objetivos de la economía circular es introducir eficiencias en los procesos productivos y de consumo que permitan disminuir la extracción de materiales de la naturaleza y evitar consecuencias negativas sobre los ecosistemas. La mayor inserción de la economía circular no solo puede tener efectos sobre el medio ambiente, sino que también podría aportar al logro de objetivos económicos. Este estudio tiene por objeto presentar una propuesta para la modelación de los efectos macroeconómicos de la economía circular en América Latina. Se utilizan los países de la Alianza del Pacífico como casos de estudio para estimar los efectos de la mayor inserción de la economía circular en el PIB, el empleo, las importaciones y las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. Los resultados de las simulaciones muestran que, en todos los casos, el efecto en el PIB y el empleo es positivo y creciente, y que, en términos generales, se reducen las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero. |
| Keywords: | DESARROLLO ECONOMICO, MACROECONOMIA, DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE, ASPECTOS AMBIENTALES, CONSUMO SOSTENIBLE, PRODUCCION SOSTENIBLE, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, MACROECONOMICS, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS, SUSTAINABLE CONSUMPTION, SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION |
| Date: | 2023–03–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:48751&r=mac |
| By: | Owen, Ann; Temesvary, Judit; Wei, Andrew |
| Abstract: | Leadership roles in banking remain dominated by men; only about one in six bank board members is female. Connections among board members can improve firm performance, but women on boards are much less connected than men. In this paper, we study how gender relates to the role of connections: how do connected female versus male board members affect banks’ performance? Using IV techniques to account for the endogeneity of connections, we find that (1) better connected female (but not male) board members improve bank profitability and reduce earnings management; (2) connections of women on important board committees also improve performance – especially when the share of women on the board is relatively high (above the median). |
| Keywords: | bank boards; professional networks; gender diversity; instrumental variables |
| JEL: | G21 G34 J16 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116811&r=mac |
| By: | Phoebe W. Ishak (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of weather shocks on violent crime using disaggregated data from Brazilian municipalities over the period 1991–2015. Employing a distributed lag model that takes into account temporal correlations of weather shocks and spatial correlation of crime rates, I document that adverse weather shocks in the form of droughts lead to a significant increase in violent crime in rural regions. This effect appears to persist beyond the growing season and over the medium run in contrast to the conventional view perceiving weather effects as transitory. To explain this persistence, I show that weather fluctuations are positively associated not only with agriculture yields, but also with the overall economic activity. Moreover, evidence shows the dominance of opportunity cost mechanism reflected in the fluctuations of the earnings especially for the agriculture and unskilled workers, giving credence that it is indeed the income that matters and not the general socio-economic conditions. Other factors such as local government budget capacity, (un)-employment, poverty, inequality, and psychological factors do not seem to explain violent crime rates. |
| Keywords: | Weather shocks, Violent crime, Labor market, Brazil |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03691432&r=mac |
| By: | Döbeling, Tatjana |
| Abstract: | Complex tariff structures impose challenges to model-based policy analysis. Real-world tariff structures are rather complex, with not only ad valorem tariffs in place but also specific tariffs as well as tariff-rate quotas (TRQs). While ad valorem tariffs express the duty as a percentage share of the value (i.e. 7%), specific tariffs add an absolute value to be paid per volume, quantity, fat content, or other properties (i.e. 10€/ton). Tariff-rate quotas are two-tied systems that offer a reduced tariff for a certain contingent, i.e. 3000 tons of duty-free exports, while a higher tariff is applied to all imports beyond those first 3000 tons. Within model-based policy analysis, ad valorem equivalent tariffs (AVEs) are used to sum up the effects of different sorts of tariffs, which is then much easier to handle and aggregate in CGE models. As the effect of these tariffs on import quantities, welfare, and trade distortion can however differ and not all these differences are captured within the ad valorem equivalent tariff, modeling their precise mechanisms would be worthwhile. The matter becomes even more complex when TRQs, ad valorem tariffs, and specific tariffs interact. For instance, several empirical studies have shown that quantitative import restrictions cause a rise in import prices. Also theoretically, it could be shown why quantitative restrictions systematically give an advantage to more expensive commodities. The theoretical argumentation, however, depends on the sort of tariff that is to be paid outside the quota. We include an endogenous quota license allocation within a complex tariff structure, thereby allowing a projection of trade regimes in which quantitative restrictions and their trade-distorting effects, ad valorem tariffs, and specific tariffs are all included at once for the same group of commodities. We implement this in the CGEbox, a flexible, extendable, and modular code basis for CGE modeling in GAMS drawing on the GTAP database. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333462&r=mac |
| By: | Petra Bleuel (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015-2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | In a context of crisis and economic difficulties, we often look around to see how others are overcoming the same difficulties. If we look at Germany's economic performance, it is doing better than the French economy, a fact that we attribute to its companies belonging to the Mittelstand, which we compare to medium-sized and intermediate industrial companies. . Thus, according to the recommendations of some economic commentators, it would be sufficient to take inspiration from the German model and create a fabric of companies similars to that of German companies to reconnect with economic performance. The French understanding of the term Mittelstand leads to erroneous conclusions which lead to analyzes distorted by a misinterpretation of what the Mittelstand represents. The solution does not lie in inserting a foreign model into the economy but in taking inspiration from German public support to increase the performance of French companies. |
| Abstract: | Dans un contexte de crise et de difficultés économiques, on regarde souvent autour de soi pour voir comment les autres surmontent les mêmes difficultés. Si on regarde les performances économiques de l'Allemagne, elle s'en sort mieux que l'économie française, fait qu'on attribue à son tissu d'entreprises appartenant au Mittelstand qu'on compare à des entreprises industrielles de taille moyenne et intermédiaires. Ainsi, selon les préconisations de certains commentateurs économiques, il suffirait de s'inspirer du modèle allemand et de créer un tissu d'entreprises comparable à celui des entreprises allemandes pour renouer avec la performance économique. La compréhension française du terme Mittelstand porte à des conclusions erronnées qui emmènent à des analyses faussées par une mauvaise interprétation de ce que représente le Mittelstand. La solution ne réside pas dans l'insertion d'un modèle étranger dans l'économie mais de s'inspirer du soutien public allemand pour augmenter les performances des entreprises françaises. |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03970699&r=mac |
| By: | Alicia LEFRANCOIS (CRIISEA - Centre de Recherche sur les Institutions, l'Industrie et les Systèmes Économiques d'Amiens - UR UPJV 3908 - UPJV - Université de Picardie Jules Verne); Sophie Changeur (CRIISEA - Centre de Recherche sur les Institutions, l'Industrie et les Systèmes Économiques d'Amiens - UR UPJV 3908 - UPJV - Université de Picardie Jules Verne) |
| Abstract: | Cette étude qualitative exploratoire vise à mieux comprendre les expériences de consommation transgressives des normes de genre. Nous étudions le cas de masculinités françaises qui se maquillent et la manière dont celles-ci appréhendent, vivent et négocient cette pratique de consommation ainsi que le projet dans lequel elle s'insère. Notre objectif est de comprendre l'expérience de ces masculinités françaises engagées dans une pratique de consommation transgressive des normes de genre. Pour ce faire, des récits de vie sont menés auprès de masculinités françaises actuellement ou anciennement consommateurs de maquillage. Une analyse thématique ainsi que l'analyse du storytelling en marketing (Chautard et Collin-Lachaud, 2019) sont utilisées pour identifier les thèmes et "récits dans le récit". Puis, la méthode des incidents critiques (Flanagan, 1954) est employée pour identifier les variables de la transgression des normes de genre. Ce travail éclairera l'industrie cosmétique et le marketing quant à la consommation des certaines masculinités françaises qui transgressent les normes de genre par la consommation et renseigne la discipline sur la manière de mobiliser le concept de transgression tant du point de vue stratégique qu'opérationnel. |
| Keywords: | transgression, normes de genre, masculinité hégémonique, masculinités, pratiques de consommation transgressives |
| Date: | 2022–11–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03958042&r=mac |
| By: | Simon Cottin-Marx (EMA - École, mutations, apprentissages - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université, LATTS - Laboratoire Techniques, Territoires et Sociétés - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Gustave Eiffel) |
| Abstract: | In this article, we examine the role of "Unions of employers" in the production of the collective agreement architecture of the non-profit health, social and medico-social sector. The socio-history of the employers' unions that we carry out in this text allows us to understand their divisions and how this contributed to the splintering of this sector into different national collective agreements (NCA) during the 1960s to 1980s, before they joined forces and created a professional branch in 1993. In the years that followed, relations between employers' organizations were turbulent, but in recent years they have finally converged on the project of a single, comprehensive NCA. Following these developments allows us to observe what this associative employer can do, but also that the State remains the main financer and regulator of this professional sector and that it actively participates in the production of rules. |
| Abstract: | Dans cet article, nous interrogeons le rôle des acteurs « patronaux » dans la production de l'architecture conventionnelle de la branche sanitaire, sociale et médico-sociale à but non lucratif (BASS). La sociohistoire des syndicats d'employeurs que nous réalisons dans ce texte nous permet de comprendre leurs divisions et comment cela a participé à l'éclatement de ce secteur en différentes conventions collectives nationales (CCN) au cours des années 1960 à 1980, avant qu'ils ne s'unissent et créent une branche professionnelle en 1993. Après cette date, les relations entre organisations patronales sont mouvementées, mais elles finissent par converger ces dernières années sur le projet d'une CCN unique et étendue. Suivre ces évolutions nous permet d'observer ce que ce patronat associatif peut faire, mais aussi que l'État reste le principal financeur et régulateur de ce secteur professionnel et qu'il participe activement à la production des règles. |
| Keywords: | negotiation, collective agreement, non-profit sector, health, social, medicosocial, employers' union, negotiation collective, relations professionnelles, syndicat d'employeurs, Patronat, association, secteur non-lucratif, secteur sanitaire et social, branche sanitaire, sociale et médico-sociale |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04002970&r=mac |
| By: | C. Feger (AgroParisTech, MRM - Montpellier Research in Management - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - UM - Université de Montpellier); Harold Levrel; Alexandre Rambaud |
| Abstract: | This paper highlights the relevance and importance of developing new ecological accounting frameworks that can contribute to the multiple efforts to transform our economy into a system that effectively maintains and restores the biosphere. Three methods of ecological accounting are presented, respectively at the national level (unpaid ecological costs), at the level of organisations (the CARE model), and at the level of collective ecosystem governance (ecosystem-centred management accounting). We show how these methods share a common theoretical basis in that they are all three anchored in "strong sustainability" and favour approaches based on the costs of preserving/restoring ecosystems. We conclude by insisting on the complementarity of these approaches and the necessity to move forward on the articulation projects already undertaken within the framework of the work of the Ecological Accounting Chair. |
| Abstract: | Ce papier met en avant la pertinence et l'importance du développement de cadres comptables écologiques nouveaux à même de contribuer aux multiples efforts de transformation de notre économie en un système qui maintient et restaure efficacement la biosphère. Trois méthodes de comptabilité écologique sont présentées, s'établissant respectivement au niveau national (les coûts écologiques non payés), des organisations (le modèle CARE), et de la gestion collective des écosystèmes sur les territoires (la comptabilité de gestion écosystème-centrée). Nous montrons en quoi ces méthodes partagent un socle théorique commun en ce qu'elles sont toutes les trois ancrées en « soutenabilité forte » et privilégient des approches par les coûts de préservation/restauration des écosystèmes. Nous concluons en insistant sur la complémentarité de ces approches et la nécessité d'avancer sur les chantiers d'articulation déjà engagés dans le cadre des travaux de la chaire Comptabilité écologique. |
| Keywords: | accounting, biodiversity, ecosystems, strong sustainability, comptabilité, biodiversité, écosystème, entreprise, soutenabilité forte, Comptabilité écologique dette capital naturel transition écologique écosystèmes Ecological accounting debt natural capital ecological transition ecosystems, Comptabilité écologique, dette, capital naturel, transition écologique, écosystèmes Ecological accounting, debt, natural capital, ecological transition |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03977774&r=mac |
| By: | Dieter von Fintel (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University); Calumet Links (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University); Erik Green |
| Abstract: | Research on long-term historical inequality has expanded to include previously neglected periods and societies, particularly in the global South. This is partly due to the resurgence of the social tables method in economic history, an approach which uses archival records to reconstruct income and wealth distributions in contexts where micro data is unavailable. This method can cause a downward bias in estimating inequality, but there is limited evidence of this bias in economic history. We collected a new data set of 108 historical social tables spanning over a 1000 years. We found that the compilers consistently made careful methodological choices that took data limitations into account. We found that the inequality estimates are not systematically related to the number of classes chosen or the size of the top class, but that choosing bottom classes that bundle together even small variations in income or wealth can introduce a downward bias to the inequality estimates. This drawback can be overcome by using methodological cohesion to mitigate the problem of limited information about the poorest classes in colonial archives. |
| Keywords: | Social tables, Gini, inequality, pre-industrial, grouped data |
| JEL: | N30 C13 C18 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers377&r=mac |
| By: | Swensen, Isaac D. (Montana State University); Urban, Carly (Montana State University) |
| Abstract: | Adverse health conditions have the potential to financially cripple American households. This report reviews the large literature that considers the ways in which health—both physical and mental—impacts household finances. The review largely includes studies with U.S. populations and spans many disciplines: economics, public health, law, medicine, psychology, public policy, and sociology. The overwhelming finding is that deteriorating health, new health conditions, and even health shocks—such as injuries—negatively impact the financial health of households. First, unanticipated out-of-pocket health costs reduce or deplete the household savings, sometimes forcing household members to forego necessary consumption. This reduced consumption could directly harm their health, providing a direct feedback loop into the relationship between health and finances. Second, declining health or new health conditions often force people out of the labor market for an extended period. This reduces household earnings and either forces other household members to work more to compensate for the earnings loss or further harms the household balance sheet. The effects of mental health conditions are often more detrimental than the onset of severe physical health conditions. The detrimental effects of health conditions on household finances are generally largest for those with the fewest protections in place: those with fewer assets, those without insurance coverage, and those with less education. However, the labor market consequences are sometimes largest for the highest earners. Existing policies can blunt the effects of health on finances. Comprehensive health insurance, specifically for the chronically ill, those with high-cost conditions, and those covered under Medicaid, generates the greatest benefits for overall financial health. Paid sick leave and subsidized caregiving limit the effects of work interruptions when someone in the household falls ill. Promising existing policies that do not require federal changes include pausing loan obligations, financial literacy, and pairing healthcare choice with cost information. |
| Keywords: | health shock, financial well-being, household finances |
| JEL: | I18 I10 I31 I38 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izapps:pp198&r=mac |
| By: | Zaman, Khalid |
| Abstract: | Clarivate Analytics, a leading provider of scientific and scholarly research solutions, recently announced the delisting 82 journals from its Web of Science core collection. This decision has far-reaching consequences for publishers, authors, and the broader academic community, as these delisted journals will lose their reputations, impact factors, and recognition, even though many have been publishing for over a decade. In this research article, we argue that Clarivate's decision is arbitrary and unfair. It undermines the efforts of reputable publishers who have worked hard to establish their journals as credible academic research sources. We propose that publishers and university journals consider creating their indexing services based on the CiteScore formula, which measures the number of citations of papers in a journal relative to the total number of published papers. This would provide an alternative solution to the problem of arbitrary delisting and empower publishers to take control of academic publishing. |
| Keywords: | Clarivate Analytics; Arbitrary Delisting; CiteScore; Solution. |
| JEL: | Y50 |
| Date: | 2023–03–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116822&r=mac |
| By: | Luca Lindner; Luca Lorenzoni |
| Abstract: | Innovative providers’ payment models represent an important policy lever that could be used to promote value-based health systems. By bundling services across the continuum of care or to target acute events or chronic conditions, innovative payment models set financial incentives for providers to increase efficiency in service delivery, improve health outcomes and enhance patient experience with care. This paper offers insights on value-based payment models, a type of innovative payment model implemented in several OECD countries and reviews the publicly available evidence on the impact of those payment models on value. Innovative payment models tend to be exceptional and small-scale compared to activity-based payment models and have been extensively piloted in the United States while implementation and evaluation in other countries is limited. The publicly available empirical evidence points to modest efficiency and quality gains from value-based payment models. Impact on healthcare spending, outcomes and patient experience varies across programmes. Given the significant variation in the key features of value-based payment models and the context-specific issues they address, those models do not offer a one-size-fits-all solution. This paper outlines several intervention points that policy makers need to consider when designing and implementing value-based payment models to maximise their positive outcome. |
| Date: | 2023–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaad:154-en&r=mac |
| By: | Aysegül Kayaoglu (ISDC - International Security and Development Center, Germany; Department of Economics, Istanbul Technical University, Türkiye; IMIS, University of Osnabrück, Germany); Ghassan Baliki (ISDC - International Security and Development Center, Germany); Tilman Brück (Humboldt-University of Berlin, Germany; ISDC - International Security and Development Center, Berlin, Germany; Thaer-Institute, Humboldt-University of Berlin, Germany; Leibniz Institute of Vegetable and Ornamental Crops (IGZ), Germany); Melodie Al Daccache (American University of Beirut, Lebanon); Dorothee Weiffen (ISDC - International Security and Development Center, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Methodological, ethical and practical challenges make it difficult to use experimental and rigorous quasi-experimental approaches to conduct impact evaluations in humanitarian emergencies and conflict settings (HECS). This paper discusses recent developments in the design, measurement, data and analysis of impact evaluations that can overcome these challenges and provide concrete examples from our recent research where we analyse the impact of agricultural emergency interventions in post-war Syria. More specifically, the paper offers solutions: First, discuss the challenges in designing rapid and rigorous impact evaluations in HECS. By doing so, we mainly show alternative ways to construct counterfactuals in the absence of meaningful control groups; Second, we review how researchers can use additional data sources to create a counterfactual or even data on treated units when it is difficult to collect data and in some cases provide ethical and methodological benefits in addition to providing cost-effectiveness. Third, we argue that finding and fine-tuning proxy measures for the ‘unmeasurable’ concepts and outcomes such as resilience and fragility are crucial. Fourth, we highlight how adaptive machine learning algorithms are helpful in rigorous impact evaluations in HECS to overcome the drawbacks related to data availability and heterogeneity analysis. We provide an example from our recent work where we use honest causal forest estimation to test the heterogeneous impact of an agricultural intervention when sample sizes are small. Fifth, we discuss how standardisation across methods, data and measures ensures the external validity and transferability of the evidence to other complex settings where impact evaluation is challenging to conduct. Finally, the paper recommends how future research and policy can adapt these tools to ensure significant and effective learning in conflict-affected and humanitarian settings. |
| Keywords: | impact evaluation, research design, machine learning, conflict setting, humanitarian emergencies |
| JEL: | C18 C30 C80 D04 D74 Q34 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:387&r=mac |
| By: | Gunther Capelle-Blancard (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSB - Paris School of Business - HESAM - HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université); Adrien Desroziers (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Bert Scholtens (University of Groningen [Groningen], University of Saint Andrews) |
| Abstract: | Abstract We provide a synthesis of four decades of empirical research regarding the reaction of shareholders to environmental events. This literature is at the crossroads of finance, environmental economics, management and corporate social responsibility (CSR). To set the stage, we first provide an account of the Brumadinho ecological disaster that occurred in Brazil on January 25th, 2019. Second, we provide a critical review of more than 100 event studies. These papers cover a diverse set of events, such as industrial accidents, public disclosure programs, legal actions following environmental violations, changes in environmental regulation, environmental news, and corporate initiatives. This review makes four contributions. First is the synthesis of a large strand of literature in a structured setting, so as to be readily handled by both experts and non-experts. Second is the observation that stock market penalties in the event of environmental concerns are likely to be quite low: on average there is a (temporary) drop in the excess stock market return to events that are harmful to the environment of about 2% and the median is −0.6%. Third is to highlight the limits of CSR as a business strategy towards a sustainable society. Fourth is to provide an open access bibliographic database. |
| Keywords: | CSR, industrial accidents, public disclosure, lawsuits, ESG news, policy, event study |
| Date: | 2021–12–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03526647&r=mac |
| By: | Lehberger, Mira; Gruener, Sven |
| Abstract: | Agricultural economists are increasingly incorporating insights from psychology into their research to better understand farmers’ behavior. The Big Five model of personality is frequently used in psychological research. This paper aims at answering how and when researchers use the Big Five personality traits when focusing on farmers (research questions, measurement of personality traits). In addition, we analyze to what extent the Big Five personality traits contribute to explaining farmers’ behaviors and outcomes. To answer these research questions, we carry out systematic literature research guided by the PRISMA approach. We searched three databases (Web of Science, Scopus, PubMed) at the end of February 2022 and identified n = 36 eligible studies. We included studies, which were written in English, which focused on farmers, including primary data and measurements of the Big Five personality traits. This is the first systematic and comprehensive review of the role of the Big Five personality traits in farmers’ behavior. Our review shows an increase in interest in the farmers’ Big Five personality traits in the past years, most often incorporated in research conducted in Europe. By carrying out the main steps of content analysis, we develop a taxonomy, categorizing the research aims of the reviewed studies. We identify three main categories: well-being (human and animal), business (in a broad sense and in a narrow sense), and methodological aims. Overall, our review suggests that some personality traits are more important for understanding farmers’ behaviors and outcomes than others, depending on the context. Indeed, we were able to identify some patterns. For instance, our review shows that neuroticism is most often negatively related to measures of human well-being, or business development, whereas agreeableness supports non-technical skills and education. Openness and extraversion seem to be strong predictors of pro-environmental behavior, whereas conscientiousness tends to increase business performance. To assess the possible risk of bias in the reviewed studies, we included a quality discussion. We further discuss the limitations of our review and identify avenues for future research. To increase the review’s credibility, we pre-registered our procedure (INPLASY202230138, DOI: 10.37766/inplasy2022.3.0138). |
| Date: | 2023–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:jbx4p&r=mac |
| By: | Jonathan F. Cogliano (University of Massachusetts Boston.); Roberto Veneziani (Queen Mary University of London); Naoki Yoshihara (University of Massachusetts Amherst) |
| Abstract: | Abstract: This paper develops a framework to analyse imperialistic international relations and the dynamics of international exploitation. A new measure of unequal exchange across borders is proposed which captures the territorial structure of imperialistic international relations: wealthy nations are net lenders and exploiters, whereas endowment-poor countries are net borrowers and exploited. Capital flows transfer surplus from countries in the periphery of the global economy to those in the core. However, while international credit markets and wealth inequalities are central in generating international exploitation, other factors, including labour-saving technical change, are shown to be essential in explaining its persistence. |
| Keywords: | International exploitation; Imperialism; Unequal exchange; Uneven development; Capital movements. |
| JEL: | F54 B51 D63 |
| Date: | 2022–09–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:942&r=mac |
| By: | Jay Bhattacharya; Joydeep Bhattacharya; Minkyong Kim |
| Abstract: | We study the association between infectious disease prevalence and income inequality. We hypothesize that random social mixing in an income-unequal society brings into contact a) susceptible and infected poor and b) the infected-poor and the susceptible-rich, raising infectious disease prevalence. We investigate this association by examining whether countries with elevated levels of income inequality have higher rates of pulmonary Tuberculosis (TB) incidence per capita. We analyzed publicly available country-level panel data for a large cross-section of countries between 1995 and 2013. A “negative control” using anemia (a non-communicable disease, and hence impervious to the hypothesized mechanism) is also applied. We find that elevated levels of income inequality were positively associated with tuberculosis prevalence. All else equal, countries with income-Gini coefficients 10% apart are a statistically significant 4% different in tuberculosis incidence. Income inequality had a null effect on anemia, the negative control. Our cross-country regression results suggest that income inequality may create conditions where TB spreads more easily. |
| JEL: | I1 I14 O57 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31053&r=mac |
| By: | Gilles Pache (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | A new stage in the evolution of e-commerce, quick commerce (or Q-commerce) is expanding rapidly on several continents. Its business model is based on ultrafast delivery since the online shopper receives the product between 10 and 15 minutes after ordering via an application on his/her smartphone. Q-commerce introduces a real supply chain revolution thanks to the promise of a much shorter delivery time than in traditional e-commerce. However, this reactivity introduces a double constraint: Q-commerce companies can only offer their shoppers a very limited product assortment, and the preparation of orders requires the presence of multiple micro-fulfillment centers, or dark stores, in the heart of cities. This research note proposes a reflection on the stakes and the future of Q-commerce, by underlining that the product assortment policy, in other words the retailer's offer strategy, is strongly conditioned by the efficient organization of the logistical operations. |
| Keywords: | Logistics, Q-commerce, Ultrafast delivery, Dark stores, Last mile |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04020665&r=mac |
| By: | Shima Nabiee; Nader Bagherzadeh |
| Abstract: | Market financial forecasting is a trending area in deep learning. Deep learning models are capable of tackling the classic challenges in stock market data, such as its extremely complicated dynamics as well as long-term temporal correlation. To capture the temporal relationship among these time series, recurrent neural networks are employed. However, it is difficult for recurrent models to learn to keep track of long-term information. Convolutional Neural Networks have been utilized to better capture the dynamics and extract features for both short- and long-term forecasting. However, semantic segmentation and its well-designed fully convolutional networks have never been studied for time-series dense classification. We present a novel approach to predict long-term daily stock price change trends with fully 2D-convolutional encoder-decoders. We generate input frames with daily prices for a time-frame of T days. The aim is to predict future trends by pixel-wise classification of the current price frame. We propose a hierarchical CNN structure to encode multiple price frames to multiscale latent representation in parallel using Atrous Spatial Pyramid Pooling blocks and take that temporal coarse feature stacks into account in the decoding stages. Our hierarchical structure of CNNs makes it capable of capturing both long and short-term temporal relationships effectively. The effect of increasing the input time horizon via incrementing parallel encoders has been studied with interesting and substantial changes in the output segmentation masks. We achieve overall accuracy and AUC of %78.18 and 0.88 for joint trend prediction over the next 20 days, surpassing other semantic segmentation approaches. We compared our proposed model with several deep models specifically designed for technical analysis and found that for different output horizons, our proposed models outperformed other models. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.09323&r=mac |
| By: | Morris, J. |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the effect of qualitative reviews on racial statistical discrimination. Using a fine-tuned Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) language model that was developed specifically for this task, I include the effects of recent qualitative reviews on the log listing price difference between Black and White hosts on Airbnb. For properties without guest reviews, I find a 4% log listing price difference between Black and White hosts for comparable properties. Once review information becomes available, this pricing difference reduces to 1%, providing evidence against the persistence of racial listing price differences on Airbnb, and furthermore, suggesting that race is used as the primary signal of property quality only in the absence of better information. Beyond its applications within the context of Airbnb, this paper aims to explain how the early provision of detailed qualitative information can reduce the effects of statistical discrimination against minorities. |
| Keywords: | Airbnb, Discrimination, Race, Online marketplace |
| JEL: | D83 J15 L84 |
| Date: | 2023–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2331&r=mac |
| By: | Institut für Versicherungswesen - Technische Hochschule Köln (Ed.) |
| Abstract: | Mit diesem Bericht dokumentiert das Institut für Versicherungswesen (ivwKöln) seine Forschungsaktivitäten des vergangenen Jahres. Wir geben damit gegenüber der Öffentlichkeit und insbesondere den Freunden und Förderern des Instituts Rechenschaft über die geleistete Forschungsarbeit. Darüber hinaus wollen wir in diesem Forschungsbericht auch darlegen, welche Forschungsziele wir am Institut verfolgen und welche Aktivitäten derzeit geplant sind. |
| Keywords: | Forschung, Forschungsbericht, Versicherungswissenschaft, Versicherungswirtschaft, Versicherungsmathematik, Versicherungsrecht |
| JEL: | G G2 G22 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:thkivw:12023&r=mac |
| By: | Arraigada, Mariana Cecilia; Pujol-Cols, Lucas J.; Dabos, Guillermo E. |
| Abstract: | Este artículo se propone describir el papel de las características individuales en el enriquecimiento trabajo-vida, a través de una revisión sistemática de artículos empíricos publicados en revistas de alto impacto. Los resultados muestran que los estados personales y las cogniciones son las características más estudiadas, y que existen muy pocas investigaciones que examinan los efectos de las capacidades personales en el enriquecimiento. Asimismo, la mayoría de los estudios están focalizados en el enriquecimiento trabajo-familia, aunque son cada vez más los autores que consideran otros dominios no laborales como la formación, el emprendimiento, entre otros. Por último, se observa una alta concentración de estudios en Europa, Estados Unidos y Asia, y un desarrollo limitado del campo en Latinoamérica. |
| Keywords: | Trabajo; Calidad de Vida; Personalidad; Revisiones Bibliográficas; |
| Date: | 2023–03–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3828&r=mac |
| By: | Apoorva Lal; Mac Lockhart; Yiqing Xu; Ziwen Zu |
| Abstract: | Instrumental variable (IV) strategies are widely used in political science to establish causal relationships. However, the identifying assumptions required by an IV design are demanding, and it remains challenging for researchers to assess their validity. In this paper, we replicate 67 papers published in three top journals in political science during 2010-2022 and identify several troubling patterns. First, researchers often overestimate the strength of their IVs due to non-i.i.d. errors, such as a clustering structure. Second, the most commonly used t-test for the two-stage-least-squares (2SLS) estimates often severely underestimates uncertainty. Using more robust inferential methods, we find that around 19-30% of the 2SLS estimates in our sample are underpowered. Third, in the majority of the replicated studies, the 2SLS estimates are much larger than the ordinary-least-squares estimates, and their ratio is negatively correlated with the strength of the IVs in studies where the IVs are not experimentally generated, suggesting potential violations of unconfoundedness or the exclusion restriction. To help researchers avoid these pitfalls, we provide a checklist for better practice. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.11399&r=mac |
| By: | Tomohiro Hirano; Alexis Akira Toda |
| Abstract: | Empirically observed rent-price ratios suggest a disconnection between fundamentals and prices. We analyze equilibrium housing prices in an overlapping generations model with perfect housing and rental markets. We prove that the economy exhibits a two-stage phase transition: as the income of home buyers rises, the equilibrium regime changes from fundamental only to coexistence of fundamental and bubbly equilibria. With even higher incomes, fundamental equilibria disappear and housing bubbles become inevitable. Expectation-driven housing booms containing a bubble and their collapse can occur. Contrary to widely-held beliefs, fundamental equilibria in the coexistence region are inefficient despite housing being a productive non-reproducible asset. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.11365&r=mac |
| By: | Qingyi Wang; Shenhao Wang; Yunhan Zheng; Hongzhou Lin; Xiaohu Zhang; Jinhua Zhao; Joan Walker |
| Abstract: | Classical demand modeling analyzes travel behavior using only low-dimensional numeric data (i.e. sociodemographics and travel attributes) but not high-dimensional urban imagery. However, travel behavior depends on the factors represented by both numeric data and urban imagery, thus necessitating a synergetic framework to combine them. This study creates a theoretical framework of deep hybrid models with a crossing structure consisting of a mixing operator and a behavioral predictor, thus integrating the numeric and imagery data into a latent space. Empirically, this framework is applied to analyze travel mode choice using the MyDailyTravel Survey from Chicago as the numeric inputs and the satellite images as the imagery inputs. We found that deep hybrid models outperform both the traditional demand models and the recent deep learning in predicting the aggregate and disaggregate travel behavior with our supervision-as-mixing design. The latent space in deep hybrid models can be interpreted, because it reveals meaningful spatial and social patterns. The deep hybrid models can also generate new urban images that do not exist in reality and interpret them with economic theory, such as computing substitution patterns and social welfare changes. Overall, the deep hybrid models demonstrate the complementarity between the low-dimensional numeric and high-dimensional imagery data and between the traditional demand modeling and recent deep learning. It generalizes the latent classes and variables in classical hybrid demand models to a latent space, and leverages the computational power of deep learning for imagery while retaining the economic interpretability on the microeconomics foundation. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.04204&r=mac |
| By: | Costantiello, Alberto; Leogrande, Angelo |
| Abstract: | We estimate the value of Voice and Accountability-VA in the context of the Environmental, Social and Governance-ESG data of the World Bank using data from 193 countries in the period 2011-2021. We use Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Panel Data with Random Effects and Pooled Ordinary Least Squares-OLS. We found that the level of VA is positively associated, among others, to “Maximum 5-Day Rainfall”, and “Mortality Rate Under 5” and negatively associated, among others, to “Adjusted Savings: Natural Resources Depletion”, and “Annualized Average Growth Rate in Per Capita Real Survey Mean Consumption or Income”. Furthermore, we apply the k-Means algorithm optimized with the Elbow Method. We found the k-Means useless due to the low variance of the variable among countries with the result of a hyper-concentration of elements in a unique cluster. Finally, we confront eight machine-learning algorithms for the prediction of VA. Polynomial Regression is the best predictive algorithm according to R-Squared, MAE, MSE and RMSE. The level of VA is expected to growth on average of 2.92% for the treated countries. |
| Keywords: | Analysis of Collective Decision-Making; General; Political Processes: Rent-Seeking; Lobbying; Elections; Legislatures; and Voting Behaviour; Bureaucracy; Administrative Processes in Public Organizations; Corruption; Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation; Implementation. |
| JEL: | D7 D70 D72 D73 D78 |
| Date: | 2023–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116805&r=mac |
| By: | Schoonjans, Eline; Hottenrott, Hanna; Buchwald, Achim |
| Abstract: | Increasing the participation of women in top-level corporate boards is high on the agenda of policymakers. Yet, we know little about director appointment dynamics and the drivers and impediments of women appointments. This study builds on organizational and group-level behavior theories and empirically investigates how ex-ante board structures and gender-specific board dynamics impact the representation of women on corporate boards. We study boards of listed firms in Europe between 2002 and 2019 and find a declining appointment probability for every additional woman, i.e. the share of women already on the board negatively predicts the likelihood of additional women appointments. Further, we find evidence of a replacement effect, i.e. the likelihood of a woman being appointed as director is significantly larger when a woman, compared to when a man, leaves the board. We do not find spillover effects from non-executive to executive boards. These results are robust to econometric model specifications that address potential endogeneity concerns using matching and instrumental variables. Our results confirm that board director appointments are gender specific and suggest that demand-side factors such as explicit and implicit norms drive women appointments up to a certain threshold. |
| Keywords: | Executive Directors, Non-Executive Directors, Appointments, Board Dynamics, Gender, Tokenism, Critical Mass, Corporate Governance |
| JEL: | G34 J08 J16 J71 L22 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:23005&r=mac |
| By: | Carlos Gustavo Machicado S. (Investigador Senior de INESAD) |
| Abstract: | Este trabajo analiza el impacto de la pandemia del COVID-19 y las medidas de mitigación que se adoptaron frente a ella en diferentes dimensiones relacionadas con los productores agropecuarios del Altiplano boliviano, como ser el empleo, los ingresos, la seguridad alimentaria, la educación y la salud. Para tal propósito se emplean datos de la encuesta de hogares de 2020 que contiene preguntas específicas sobre el COVID-19. En relación con el empleo y los ingresos, se evidencia que los ingresos producidos por la actividad agrícola no se vieron afectados, aunque sí lo hicieron los ingresos provenientes de otras actividades. Se constata también que la característica de “agricultura familiar” del Altiplano ayudó a que la seguridad alimentaria no se viera afectada. Por su parte, la educación se vio seriamente afectada por el bajo uso de las tecnologías de la información y la comunicación (TIC) en el área rural, lo que dificultó el poder llevar adelante una apropiada educación virtual. Finalmente, si bien hubo contagios por COVID-19, la gran mayoría de las personas se trataron en su domicilio, aunque se evidencia poco conocimiento en relación a la enfermedad. |
| Keywords: | Salud, empleo agrícola, seguridad alimentaria. |
| JEL: | I15 J43 Q18 |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adv:wpaper:202204&r=mac |
| By: | Pierre-Carl Michaud; Pascal St. Amour |
| Abstract: | Annuities, long-term care insurance and reverse mortgages remain unpopular to manage longevity, medical and housing price risks after retirement. We analyze low demand using a life-cycle model structurally estimated with a unique stated-preference survey experiment of Canadian households. Low risk aversion, substitution between housing and consumption and low marginal utility when in poor health explain most of the reduced demand. Bequests motives are found to be a luxury good and play a limited role. The remaining disinterest is explained by information frictions and behavioural status-quo biases. We find evidence of strong spousal co-insurance motives motivating LTCI and of responsiveness to bundling with a near doubling of demand for annuities when reverse mortgages can be used to annuitize, instead of consuming home equity. |
| JEL: | G51 G53 I13 J14 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31038&r=mac |
| By: | Bhalotra, Sonia (University of Warwick, United Kingdom, CEPR, IZA, IEA, CAGE.); Fernández, Manuel (Universidad de los Andes, Colombia, and IZA) |
| Abstract: | We investigate supply-side barriers to medical care in Colombia, where citizens have a constitutional right to health, but insurance companies impose restrictions. We use administrative data on judicial claims for health as a proxy for unmet demand. We validate this using the health services utilization register, showing that judicial claims map into large, pervasive decreases in medical consultations, procedures, hospitalizations and emergency care. This manifests in population health outcomes. We identify increases in mortality pervasive across cause, age, sex, and income, with larger increases for cancer and individuals over the age of fifty. |
| Keywords: | Health care, health insurance, mortality, right-to-health, litigation, accountability, universal-health-coverage, Colombia JEL Classification: G22, I11, I13, I18, K38, K42 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:660&r=mac |
| By: | Khan, Haider |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this paper is to present a complex nonlinear modelling approach to analyzing mixed capitalist economic systems. An application of a more elaborate version of this model is to explore the consequences of sanctions on the Russian economy and evaluate the model’s predictive successes or failures. Furthermore, the formal expanded nonlinear model presented in the appendix may be seen as an initial step to put the analysis of economic sanctions within a formal complex socio-economic systems framework. The results obtained from this structural complex multisectoral model so far seem fairly accurate in terms of agreement with measured values of observable economic variables. The political consequences are uncertain and are to be explored separately in a companion paper and ultimately in a book length treatment. Methodologically, the paper also presents the case for using Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)-based models for understanding problems of analyzing sanctions in an economywide context. Linear as well as Nonlinear models are presented in the appendix. The nonlinear modelling approach might prove to be especially relevant for studying the properties of multiple equilibria and complex dynamics. |
| Keywords: | sanctions, complex system modelling, SAM, Russia, Geoeconomics, Geopolitics |
| JEL: | C3 C6 F5 |
| Date: | 2023–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116806&r=mac |
| By: | Carl Hase |
| Abstract: | A growing empirical literature finds that firms pass the cost of minimum wage hikes onto consumers via higher retail prices. Yet, little is known about minimum wage effects on wholesale prices and whether retailers face a wholesale cost shock in addition to the labor cost shock. I exploit the unique market structure of Washington state's legal recreational cannabis industry to investigate minimum wage pass-through to wholesale and retail prices. In a dynamic difference-in-differences framework, I utilize scanner data on $6 billion of transactions across the supply chain and leverage geographic variation in firms' minimum wage exposure across six minimum wage hikes between 2018 and 2021. When ignoring wholesale cost effects, I find retail pass-through elasticities consistent with existing literature--yet retail pass-through elasticities more than double once wholesale cost effects are accounted for. Retail markups do not adjust to the wholesale cost shock, indicating a full pass-through of the wholesale cost shock to retail prices. The results suggest that previous research may underestimate the impact of minimum wage increases on retail prices. This paper highlights the importance of analyzing the entire supply chain when evaluating the product market effects of minimum wage hikes. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.10367&r=mac |
| By: | Kramer, Niklas; Lessmann, Christian |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of California’s emission trading scheme on carbon emissions and economic outcomes. We use panel data for all US states and apply the synthetic control method to construct an optimal counterfactual for CO2 emissions, GDP, employment, and industry turnover as outcome variables. We find evidence for a modest decline in emissions and a net positive aggregate economic effect. While we estimate overall emissions to fall relative to the counterfactual by 0.9% annually and by 6.3% in total between 2013 and 2019, the effect is most evident in the electricity and buildings sector, accounting for an annual abatement of 6.2% and 1.4%, respectively. Our estimates suggest that California’s carbon trading scheme has so far not caused large reductions in overall CO2 emissions and has positively affected macroeconomic outcomes in the short run. |
| Keywords: | Carbon pricing, emission trading, cap and trade, economic effects, emission reduction, synthetic control |
| JEL: | O44 Q48 Q52 Q58 |
| Date: | 2023–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116796&r=mac |
| By: | Maria Mansanet-Bataller (Université de Franche-Comté, CRESE, F-25000 Besançon, France); Àngel Pardo (Department of Financial Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Valencia, Avenida de los Naranjos s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain) |
| Abstract: | Several papers by academics and various reports by financial analysts suggest that non-compliance traders, mostly investment funds and firms, are manipulating the EU ETS and causing EUA prices to rise. In response, the European Commission has mandated the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) to investigate whether “certain trading behaviours would require further regulatory actions” (ESMA, 2021). The objective of this paper is (i) to analyse the participation of non-compliance traders in the EU ETS and their role in the financialisation of the scheme, and (ii) to contribute to the debate on price manipulation by the non-compliance sector in the EU ETS. Both our analysis of the EUA Commitments of Traders reports and our review of the main findings of the empirical papers on portfolio management with EUAs suggest that non-compliance traders mainly take short positions in the European carbon futures market in order to arbitrage the spot market. Only a small portion of the long positions are used by financial investors to diversify or hedge risks coming from financial markets. Therefore, in both situations, non-compliance traders would be acting as long-term liquidity providers rather than speculators. |
| Keywords: | arbitrage, diversify, EUA, financialisation, hedge, speculate |
| JEL: | G15 G20 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crb:wpaper:2023-01&r=mac |
| By: | Gonzalo Ballestero (Department of Economics, Universidad de San Andres) |
| Abstract: | Firms increasingly delegate their strategic decisions to algorithms. A potential con- cern is that algorithms may undermine competition by leading to pricing outcomes that are collusive, even without having been designed to do so. This paper investigates whether Q-learning algorithms can learn to collude in a setting with sequential price competition and stochastic marginal costs adapted from Maskin and Tirole (1988). By extending a previous model developed in Klein (2021), I find that sequential Q-learning algorithms leads to supracompetitive profits despite they compete under uncertainty and this finding is robust to various extensions. The algorithms can coordinate on focal price equilibria or an Edgeworth cycle provided that uncertainty is not too large. However, as the market environment becomes more uncertain, price wars emerge as the only possible pricing pattern. Even though sequential Q-learning algorithms gain supracompetitive profits, uncertainty tends to make collusive outcomes more difficult to achieve. |
| Keywords: | Competition Policy |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sad:ypaper:1&r=mac |
| By: | Bontemps, Christian; Gualdani, Cristina; Remmy, Kevin |
| Abstract: | We develop a two-stage game in which competing airlines first choose the networks of markets to serve in the first stage before competing in price in the second stage. Spillovers in entry decisions across markets are allowed, which accrue on the demand, marginal cost, and fixed cost sides. We show that the second-stage parameters are point identified, and we design a tractable procedure to set identify the first-stage parameters and to conduct inference. Further, we estimate the model using data from the domestic US airline market and find significant spillovers in entry. In a counterfactual exercise, we evaluate the 2013 merger between American Airlines and US Airways. Our results highlight that spillovers in entry and post-merger network readjustments play an important role in shaping post-merger outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Endogenous market structure; Networks; Airlines; Oligopoly; Product repositioning; Mergers; Remedies |
| Date: | 2023–03–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:127943&r=mac |