nep-mac New Economics Papers
on Macroeconomics
Issue of 2017‒04‒30
106 papers chosen by
Soumitra K Mallick
Indian Institute of Social Welfare and Business Management

  1. Inflation and Economic Growth By BLINOV, Sergey
  2. Capital injection to banks versus debt relief to households By Yoo, Jinhyuk
  3. Quarterly Report on the Euro Area (QREA), Vol.15, No.3 (2016) By Erik Canton; Nicolas Carnot; Ulrich Clemens; Martin Larch; Philipp Mohl; Nigel Nagarajan; Adriana Reut; Borek Vasicek; Melanie Ward-Warmedinger
  4. Modelos para los flujos de nuevo crédito en España By Jose Felix Izquierdo
  5. Forward guidance through interest rate projections: does it work? By Leif Brubakk; Saskia ter Ellen; Hong Xu
  6. Interest Rate Volatility And Macroeconomic Dynamics: A Cross-Country Analysis By Michael Curran; Adnan Velic
  7. The German labor market in the Great Recession: Shocks and institutions By Gehrke, Britta; Lechthaler, Wolfgang; Merkl, Christian
  8. The Rise of Services and Balanced Growth in Theory and Data By Miguel Leon-Ledesma; Alessio Moro
  9. Regional Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy By Martin Beraja; Andreas Fuster; Erik Hurst; Joseph Vavra
  10. Quarterly Report on the Euro Area (QREA), Vol.16, No.1 (2017) By Katia Berti; Benat Bilbao-Osorio; Gaetano D’Adamo; Christian Engelen; Christoph Maier; Diana Ognyanova; Anna Thum-Thysen; Borek Vasicek; Peter Voigt
  11. Performance and Risk of IOI Corporation Berhad By Harun, Nur Ilyani
  12. Labor Market Reforms and Unemployment Dynamics By Fabrice Murtin; Jean-Marc Robin
  13. Fiscal Rules and Pro-cyclicality of the Fiscal Policy in CEMAC countries By BIKAI, J. Landry
  14. Understanding Survey Based Inflation Expectations By Travis J. Berge
  15. Asymmetric exchange rate policy in inflation targeting developing countries By Benlialper, Ahmet; Cömert, Hasan; Öcal, Nadir
  16. Can Fiscal Budget-Neutral Reforms Stimulate Growth? Model-Based Results By M. Bussière; L. Ferrara; M. Juillard; D. Siena
  17. The Cyclical Behavior of Unemployment and Wages under Information Frictions By Camilo Morales-Jimenez
  18. Sustained investment surges By Emiliano Libman; Juan Antonio Montecino; Arslan Razmi
  19. Long Term Growth Perspectives in Japan and the Euro Area By Christian Dreger
  20. The Welfare Cost of Inflation Risk Under Imperfect Insurance By Yann Algan; Olivier Allais; Edouard Challe; Xavier Ragot
  21. Offshore Profit Shifting and Domestic Productivity Measurement By Fatih Guvenen; Raymond J. Mataloni, Jr.; Dylan G. Rassier; Kim J. Ruhl
  22. Ochenta Años de la Teoría General 1936-2016 By Guillermo Maya Muñoz
  23. The Macro-Dynamics of Sorting between Workers and Firms By Jeremy Lise; Jean-Marc Robin
  24. Israel; 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Israel By International Monetary Fund.
  25. The determinants of household saving behaviour in Malta By William Gatt
  26. The interest rate pass-through in the low interest rate environment: Evidence from Germany By Hennecke, Peter
  27. Norwegian interbank market’s response to changes in liquidity policy By Q. Farooq Akram; Jon H. Findreng
  28. Stabilité financière : définitions, fondements théoriques et politique macroprudentielle By ROUIESSI, Imane
  29. Changing Macroeconomic Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound By Francesco Zanetti; Philip Liu
  30. Can the central bank alleviate fiscal burdens? By Ricardo Reis
  31. Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activity in South Africa By Kevin Kotze
  32. Is something really wrong with macroeconomics? By Ricardo Reis
  33. The evolution of the Maltese economy since independence By Aaron G Grech
  34. Natural Budget Deficit and Natural Political Cyclicality By Khani Hoolari, Seyed Morteza; Taghinejad Omran, Vahid
  35. Components of uncertainty By Vegard Høghaug Larsen
  36. Regla de Taylor en Colombia: ¿Variante a través del tiempo? By César Pabón; Juan Guillermo Bedoya
  37. Government bond yields at the effective lower bound: International evidence By Domenico Lombardi; Pierre L. Siklos; Samantha St. Amand
  38. The Relationship Between Hong Leong Bank’s Performance with Leverage and Inflation By Rosli, Aini Rafiqah
  39. Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands; 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Alternate Executive Director for the Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands By International Monetary Fund.
  40. Down in the slumps: the role of credit in five decades of recessions By Bridges, Jonathan; Jackson, Christopher; McGregor, Daisy
  41. The Employment Effects of Countercyclical Infrastructure Investments By Buchheim, Lukas; Watzinger, Martin
  42. The Post-Crisis Slump in the Euro Area and the US By Kollmann, Robert
  43. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK OF THE GREAT RECESSION in US (2008-2015Q2) (Comparison With Great Depression) By Leyla Baştav
  44. Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Revisited: The Art of the Desperate Deal By Mark Aguiar; Satyajit Chatterjee; Harold Cole; Zachary Stangebye
  45. Modeling consumer confidence and its role for expectation formation: A horse race By Jang, Tae-Seok; Sacht, Stephen
  46. The transmission of monetary policy shocks By Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia; Ricco, Giovanni
  47. The Effect of the Federal Reserve’s Securities Holdings on Longer-term Interest Rates By Brian Bonis; Jane E. Ihrig; Min Wei
  48. Investigating potential output using the Hodrick-Prescott filter: an application for Malta By Aaron G. Grech
  49. Evaluation the Impact of Specific Risk Factors on Inventory Turnover and Macroeconomics: Evidence from KUB Malaysia Sdn Bhd By Sylvester Andreas, Flora Kumang
  50. The falling elasticity of global trade to economic activity: Testing the demand channel By Auboin, Marc; Borino, Floriana
  51. Performance and Risk: Empirical Evidence from Petroliam Nasional Berhad (PETRONAS) By Nayan, Norma
  52. Sanayi Ulkelerindeki Kuresel Doviz Kuru Savaslarinin Gelisme Yolundaki Ulkelere Etkisi By Ece D. Erol; Ibrahim Erol
  53. Assets with possibly negative dividends By Pham, Ngoc-Sang
  54. Gender Differences in Unemployment Dynamics and Initial Wages over the Business Cycle By NAGORE GARCIA Amparo
  55. Entwicklung der Bürobeschäftigung in deutschen Städten By Bendel, Daniel; Voigtländer, Michael
  56. Republic of Nauru; 2017 Article IV Consultation- Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Nauru By International Monetary Fund.
  57. Kredi Hacmi Ile Cari Acik Arasindaki Iliski: Turkiye Icin Dinamik Bir Analiz By Pinar Karahan; Nilgun Caglairmak Uslu
  58. Using bank loans as collateral in Europe : The role of liquidity and funding purposes By François Koulischer; Patrick Van Roy
  59. Gauging two sides of regional economic resilience in Western Germany. Why resitance and recovery should not be lumped together By Franziska Pudelko; Christian Hundt
  60. Frictional Unemployment and Stochastic Bubbles By Guillaume Vuillemey; Etienne Wasmer
  61. The Power of Sunspots: an Experimental Analysis By Fehr, Dietmar; Heinemann, Frank; Llorente-Saguer, Aniol
  62. Doing well by doing good: The role of Mexico's firms in achieving sustainable and inclusive growth By Mabel Gabriel; Patrick Lenain; Mirna Mehrez; Julien Reynaud; Payal Soneja
  63. Slovak Republic; 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Informational Annex for Slovak Republic By International Monetary Fund.
  64. War, Inflation, and Social Capital By Sergei Guriev; Nikita Melnikov
  65. International Transmission of Japanese Monetary Shocks Under Low and Negative Interest Rates: A Global Favar Approach By Spiegel, Mark M.; Tai, Andrew
  66. Nigeria; 2017 Article IV Consultation- Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Nigeria By International Monetary Fund.
  67. Republic of San Marino; 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of San Marino By International Monetary Fund.
  68. Mean Field Games with Singular Controls By Fu, Guanxing; Horst, Ulrich
  69. Ukraine; 2016 Article IV Consultation and third review under the Extended Arrangement, Requests for a Waiver of Non-Observance of a Performance Criterion, Waiver of Applicability, Rephasing of Access and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine By International Monetary Fund.
  70. South Sudan; 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for South Sudan By International Monetary Fund.
  71. St. Lucia; 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report By International Monetary Fund.
  72. Evaluación de pronósticos de las reservas internacionales netas en Colombia By Óscar Andrés Espinosa Acuña
  73. Economic Shocks and their Effects on Unemployment in the Euro Area Periphery under the EMU By Antonio Ribba; Pietro Dallari
  74. Analyse des canaux de transmission de la politique monétaire au Maroc By BENNOUNA, Hicham; LAHLOU, Kamal; MOSSADAK, Anas
  75. An estimate of the possible impact of lower electricity and water tariffs on the Maltese economy By Aaron G. Grech
  76. Systematic Cojumps, Market Component Portfolios and Scheduled Macroeconomic Announcements By Chan, Kam Fong; Bowman, Robert G.; Neely, Christopher J.
  77. Top Income Inequality in the 21st Century: Some Cautionary Notes By Fatih Guvenen; Greg Kaplan
  78. The U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook : a presentation at Australian Centre for Financial Studies International Distinguished Lecture, Melbourne, Australia, April 10, 2017. By Bullard, James B.
  79. International shocks and macroeconomics: a new multi-country DSGE platform for policy analysis in OECD countries. By Edgar Mata Flores
  80. Government Failure Redux: Why Did Federal Spending Lose Stimulative Traction? By Chulho Jung; Jay E. Ryu
  81. Accounting for Growth in the Age of the Internet: The Importance of Output-Saving Technical Change By Charles Hulten; Leonard Nakamura
  82. The Effectiveness of a Fiscal Transfer Mechanism in a Monetary Union: A DSGE Model for the Euro Area By Loes Verstegen; Lex Meijdam
  83. Bank de-risking impacts on finance and development. The case of Romania By Georgescu, George
  84. "The Trump Effect: Is This Time Different?" By Michalis Nikiforos; Gennaro Zezza
  85. Surge Capacity: Selling City-owned Electricity Distributors to Meet Broader Municipal Infrastructure Needs By Steven Robins
  86. Nepal; 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report By International Monetary Fund.
  87. Looking Back On the Age of Checking in America, 1800-1960 By Jaremski, Matthew; Mathy, Gabrial
  88. Cyclical sensitivity of public finances in former Yugoslavian countries (2001–2014). By Marko Crnogorac; Santiago Lago Peñas
  89. Commodity price risk management and fiscal policy in a sovereign default model By Bernabe Lopez-Martin; Julio Leal; Andre Martinez Fritscher
  90. Les propriétés dynamiques et de long terme du modèle ThreeMe: un cahier de variantes By Gaël Callonnec; Gissela Landa; Paul Malliet; Frédéric Reynès; Aurélien Saussay
  91. Underestimating the Real Growth of GDP, Personal Income and Productivity By Martin S. Feldstein
  92. The Relationship of RHB Bank Berhad’s Profitability with Leverage and Size (Total Asset) By Sofi, Farah Nuramalina
  93. Health and Health Inequality during the Great Recession: Evidence from the PSID By Chenggang Wang; Huixia Wang; Timothy J. Halliday
  94. Distortions and the Structure of the World Economy By Lorenzo Caliendo; Fernando Parro; Aleh Tsyvinski
  95. Mercado del crédito informal en Colombia: una aproximación empírica By Edwin Arbey Hernández García; Andrés Felipe Oviedo Gómez
  96. A Macroeconometric Model of Turkey: Impact of Exchange Rate Shocks Under a High International Borrowing By Durmus Ozdemir; Mustafa Kemal Gündoğdu
  97. A Structural Model of Macroprudential Policy: the Case of Ireland By Niall McInerney
  98. Trendvariation oder säkulare Stagnation? Wachstum und Wirtschaftspolitik in historischer Perspektive By Uebele, Martin
  99. Strukturelle Schwächen der russischen Wirtschaft By Kolev, Galina V.
  100. Estimating a credit gap for non-financial corporations in Malta By Brian Micallef
  101. risk and performance of amtel holdings berhad By gamar, mohd nur arif
  102. Money and Credit Overhang in the Euro Area By J. Liu; C.J.M. Kool
  103. Playing the game the others want to play : Keynes’ beauty contest revisited By Kene Boun My; Camille Cornand; Rodolphe Dos Santos Ferreira
  104. Risk and Performance of Elsoft Reseach Berhad By sutejo, siti khomariah
  105. Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands; Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund.
  106. Extrapolative Expectations and Capital Flows during Convergence By Cozzi, Guido; Davenport, Margaret

  1. By: BLINOV, Sergey
    Abstract: Attempts to establish a link between inflation and economic growth are made quite regularly. The aim of such attempts is not only to determine the impact of inflation on economic growth but also to assess efficiency of the inflation rein-in policy, for example, the policy of inflation targeting. This work reveals the nature of the inter-connection between inflation and economic growth and explains why this inter-connection cannot be sustainable without considering the third parameter, i.e. money supply.
    Keywords: Monetary Policy; Price Level; Inflation; Deflation; Economic Growth; Business Cycles;
    JEL: E30 E31 E32 E51 E52 E58 N10 O11 O40 O42
    Date: 2017–04–08
  2. By: Yoo, Jinhyuk
    Abstract: House financing has played a prominent role in advanced economies. In addition, most of the banking crises in advanced economies were associated with boom-bust cycles in house prices. Prominent researchers suggest that more grants for household debt reduction would have provided a significant boost to the economy lacking aggregate demand after the Great Recession of 2007. In contrast, leading policy makers at that time, such as Geithner and Summers, argue differently. In his paper, Yoo comes up with a dynamic stochastic equilibrium (DSGE) model to evaluate the relative effectiveness of a policy to inject capital into banks versus a policy to relieve households of mortgage debt. He concludes that in the middle of a housing debt crisis, when households are highly leveraged, the short-run effects of the debt relief policy are more substantial. When the zero lower bound is additionally considered, the debt relief pölicy can be much more powerful in boosting the economy both in the short-run and in the long-run.
    Keywords: capital injection to banks,debt relief to households,housing debt crisis,macro-financial linkages,leverage,zero lower bound
    JEL: E17 E44 E52 E62 G1 G21 H12
    Date: 2017
  3. By: Erik Canton; Nicolas Carnot; Ulrich Clemens; Martin Larch; Philipp Mohl; Nigel Nagarajan; Adriana Reut; Borek Vasicek; Melanie Ward-Warmedinger
    Abstract: In this edition of the QREA, European Commission staff look at the monetary and fiscal policy mix in the euro area and the challenges policymakers face in the current environment. Ways to strengthen the resilience of euro area Member States are also explored and in another chapter, concerns about market liquidity are investigated.
    Keywords: Convergence, economic resilience, structural reforms, macroeconomic policy mix, financial market liquidity
    JEL: A10 C10 C54 E00 E44 E52 E61 E62 E63 F15 F45 P11
    Date: 2016–12
  4. By: Jose Felix Izquierdo
    Abstract: Durante los últimos años, diversos factores han venido afectando a la provisión de nuevo crédito al sector privado español. En este documento, se describen los modelos econométricos que se han estimado para intentar cuantificar la importancia de estos factores.
    Keywords: Análisis Macroeconómico , Banca , Documento de Trabajo , España
    JEL: E42 E43 E44 E51 E52 F36
    Date: 2017–04
  5. By: Leif Brubakk (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway)); Saskia ter Ellen (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway)); Hong Xu (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))
    Abstract: Based on high-frequency data for Norway and Sweden, we investigate to what extent explicit forward guidance from monetary policy makers, by means of publishing the path of expected future policy rates, affects the market yield curve. We summarise movements in the yield curve by two latent factors (the 'target factor' and 'market path factor'), which capture market participants' assessment of all relevant monetary policy communication made available on announcement days. We then show that information contained in the published interest rate path has a signi cant effect on the market path, and can explain up to 47% of the market path factor. Hence, we conclude that 'explicit' forward guidance in the form of publishing the interest rate path succeeds in moving markets in the desired direction. Furthermore, our results show that central bank and market revisions of interest rate expectations are strongly correlated. This suggests that market participants to a large extent understand the monetary policy reaction pattern.
    Keywords: monetary policy, forward guidance, interest rates
    JEL: E43 E44 E52 E58 G12
    Date: 2017–04–19
  6. By: Michael Curran (Department of Economics, Villanova School of Business, Villanova University); Adnan Velic (Dublin Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: Employing relatively novel computational techniques, this paper examines the relation between real interest rate volatility and macroeconomic dynamics for a diverse panel of countries. Empirically, we find that interest rate volatility is quite high and persistent overall, with estimates exhibiting non-negligible heterogeneity across countries. Moreover, we highlight that volatility increases at higher interest rate levels, while it is negatively correlated with measures of macroeconomic performance such as output, consumption and investment. Our analysis demonstrates that the empirical facts can be generated by a DSGE model augmented with stochastic volatility shocks.
    Keywords: interest rates; stochastic volatility; persistence; macroeconomic dynamics; general equilibrium models
    JEL: C11 E13 E32 E43 E44 F41
    Date: 2017–04
  7. By: Gehrke, Britta (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Lechthaler, Wolfgang; Merkl, Christian
    Abstract: This paper analyzes Germany's unusual labor market experience during the Great Recession. We estimate a general equilibrium model with a detailed labor market block for postunification Germany. This allows us to disentangle the role of institutions (short-time work, government spending rules) and shocks (aggregate, labor market, and policy shocks) and to perform counterfactual exercises. We identify positive labor market performance shocks (likely caused by labor market reforms) as the key driver for the "German labor market miracle" during the Great Recession.
    JEL: E24 E32 E62 J08 J63
    Date: 2017–04–14
  8. By: Miguel Leon-Ledesma (University of Kent); Alessio Moro (University of Cagliari; Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM))
    Abstract: When measured using NIPA conventions, a two-sector model of balanced growth and structural transformation can account for the mildly declining GDP growth rate, increasing share of services, and increasing real investment/GDP ratio observed in the post-war U.S. economy. These changes induce a decline of 36% in the marginal product of capital and of 5.4% in the real interest rate. By retaining the U.S. calibration, the process of structural transformation can also account, per-se, for cross-country differences in real investment/GDP ratios, which are comparable to those displayed by the U.S. along its growth path.
    Keywords: Structural transformation, Productivity of capital. Two-sector model
    JEL: E22 E24 E31 O41
    Date: 2017–04
  9. By: Martin Beraja; Andreas Fuster; Erik Hurst; Joseph Vavra
    Abstract: We argue that the time-varying regional distribution of housing equity influences the aggregate consequences of monetary policy through its effects on mortgage refinancing. Using detailed loan-level data, we show that regional differences in housing equity affect refinancing and spending responses to interest rate cuts but that these effects vary over time with changes in the regional distribution of house price growth and unemployment. We then build a heterogeneous household model of refinancing and use it to explore the aggregate implications for monetary policy arising from our regional evidence. We find that the 2008 equity distribution made spending in depressed regions less responsive to interest rate cuts, thus dampening aggregate stimulus and increasing regional consumption inequality, whereas the opposite occurred in some earlier recessions. Taken together, our results strongly suggest that monetary policy makers should track the regional distribution of equity over time.
    JEL: E21 E32 E5 R1 R2
    Date: 2017–03
  10. By: Katia Berti; Benat Bilbao-Osorio; Gaetano D’Adamo; Christian Engelen; Christoph Maier; Diana Ognyanova; Anna Thum-Thysen; Borek Vasicek; Peter Voigt
    Abstract: In this edition of the QREA, European Commission staff looks at the problem of non-performing loans from a macroeconomic perspective. It also looks at ways to unlock investment in intangible assets in Europe and assesses the competitiveness of the euro area from a number of perspectives.
    Keywords: Non-performing loans, investment, intangible assets, competitiveness
    JEL: A10 C10 C54 E00 E22 E44 F14 F15 F36 F45 G20 G21 P11
    Date: 2017–03
  11. By: Harun, Nur Ilyani
    Abstract: The study aims to measure corporate governance and its impact firm performance and risk of IOI Corporation Berhad (IOI). The method of the study is regression analysis of IOI by using SPSS System. The study found that IOI has a positive relationship between return on asset and return on equity. The ROA and leverage ratio also was a positive relationship. Meaning that the company has earns more profit, at the same time the company does not do any credit businesses. The regression analysis show that 3 out of 13 factors are significantly influence the profitability of IOI.
    Keywords: credit risk; liquidity risk; profitability; and macroeconomics
    JEL: E0 E2 E4 E44 G1 G2
    Date: 2017–03–29
  12. By: Fabrice Murtin (Département d'économie); Jean-Marc Robin (Département d'économie)
    Abstract: We quantify the contribution of labor market reforms to unemployment dynamics in nine OECD countries (Australia, France, Germany, Japan, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, UK, US). We estimate a dynamic stochastic search-matching model with heterogeneous workers and aggregate productivity shocks. The heterogeneous-worker mechanism proposed by Robin (2011) explains unemployment volatility by productivity shocks well in all countries. Placement and employment services, UI benefit reduction and product market deregulation are found to be the most prominent policy levers for unemployment reduction. Business cycle shocks and LMPs explain about the same share of unemployment volatility (except for Japan, Portugal and the US).
    Keywords: Unemployment dynamics; Turnover; Labor market institutions; Job search; Matching function
    JEL: E24 E32 J21
    Date: 2016
  13. By: BIKAI, J. Landry
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyze the cyclicality of fiscal policy in the CEMAC zone and identify the link between this cyclicality effects and the multilateral supervision rules. Based on a non-dynamic panel data model inspired by Gali and Perotti (2003), and Cimadomo (2005), the results show that the fiscal policies applied in CEMAC zone are highly pro-cyclical. This pro-cyclicality is accentuated since the practice of multilateral supervision rules.Counter-cyclical fiscal policies appear as an alternative for the countries of this community to smooth out fluctuations in their business cycles and simultaneously reduce the probability of asymmetric shocks that seem harmful to the monetary policy.A review of the convergence criteria is therefore necessary since those used in CEMAC zone do not take into account the intrinsic characteristics of countries in the region.
    Keywords: Fiscal policy, Pro cyclicality, monetary union, multilateral supervision
    JEL: E3 E6 H3
    Date: 2015–06–12
  14. By: Travis J. Berge
    Abstract: Survey based measures of inflation expectations are not informationally efficient yet carry important information about future inflation. This paper explores the economic significance of informational inefficiencies of survey expectations. A model selection algorithm is applied to the inflation expectations of households and professionals using a large panel of macroeconomic data. The expectations of professionals are best described by different indicators than the expectations of households. A forecast experiment finds that it is difficult to exploit informational inefficiencies to improve inflation forecasts, suggesting that the economic cost of the surveys' deviation from rationality is not large.
    Keywords: Informational efficiency ; Phillips curve ; Survey based inflation expectations ; Boosting ; Inflation forecasting ; Machine learning
    JEL: C53 E31 E37
    Date: 2017–04
  15. By: Benlialper, Ahmet; Cömert, Hasan; Öcal, Nadir
    Abstract: In the last decades, many developing countries abandoned their existing policy regimes and adopted inflation targeting (IT) by which they aimed to control inflation through the use of policy interest rates. During the period before the crisis, most of these countries experienced large appreciations in their currencies. Given that appreciation helps central banks curb inflationary pressures, we ask whether central banks in developing countries have different policy stances with respect to depreciation and appreciation in order to hit their inflation targets. To that end, we analyze central banks' interest rate decisions by estimating a nonlinear monetary policy reaction function for a set of IT developing countries using a panel threshold model. Our findings suggest that during the period under investigation (2002-2008), central banks in developing countries implementing IT tolerated appreciation by remaining inactive in the case of appreciation, but fought against depreciation pressures beyond some threshold. We are unable to detect a similar asymmetric response for IT advanced countries suggesting that an asymmetric policy stance is particular to IT developing countries. Although there is a vast literature on asymmetric responses of various central banks to changes in inflation and output, an asymmetric stance with regards to the exchange rate has not been analyzed yet in a rigorous way especially within the context of IT developing countries. In this sense, our study is the first in the literature and thus is expected to fill an important gap.
    Keywords: Inflation Targeting,Central Banking,Developing Countries,Exchange Rates
    JEL: E52 E58 E31 F31
    Date: 2017
  16. By: M. Bussière; L. Ferrara; M. Juillard; D. Siena
    Abstract: This paper focuses on growth enhancing budget-neutral fiscal reforms, i.e. changes in the composition of government revenues and spending that stimulate GDP growth while keeping the ratio of the fiscal budget to GDP constant. To this aim, we present simulation results using a multi-country DSGE model with three large economic regions, the US, the euro area and the rest of the world. The model features constrained and unconstrained non-Ricardian households and a detailed government sector; its multi-country nature allows investigating cross-country spillovers. The paper focuses on the most growth-friendly budget-neutral fiscal measures: (i) an incomplete fiscal devaluation (ii) a rise in government investment compensated by a fall in government consumption and (iii) a rise in government investment compensated by a rise in consumption and labor taxes. Dampening or amplifying effects due to coordination across policies (monetary and fiscal) and across economic regions are also considered. Three main results stand out. First, an increase in government investment financed by rising less distortionary taxes appears to be an effective growth-friendly budget-neutral reform in the sense that it generates both short- and long-run GDP growth and improves fiscal sustainability. Second, benefits and costs of budget-neutral reforms are not equally distributed across agents, giving rise to a policy trade-off between growth and distributional consequences. Third, budget-neutral reforms do not have large cross-border trade spillovers; however, reforms coordinated across all countries in periods of accommodative monetary policy do have amplified domestic effects.
    Keywords: Fiscal composition, budget-neutral reforms, taxes, government spending, multi-country DSGE model, international spillovers.
    JEL: E62 E63 F42
    Date: 2017
  17. By: Camilo Morales-Jimenez
    Abstract: I propose a new mechanism for sluggish wages based on workers' noisy information about the state of the economy. Wages do not respond immediately to a positive aggregate shock because workers do not (yet) have enough information to demand higher wages. This increases firms' incentives to post more vacancies, which makes unemployment volatile and sensitive to aggregate shocks. The model is robust to two major criticisms of existing theories of sluggish wages and volatile unemployment: flexibility of wages for new hires and pro-cyclicality of the opportunity cost of employment. Calibrated to U.S. data, the model explains 70% of unemployment volatility.
    Keywords: Information Frictions ; Unemployment ; Wages and compensation
    JEL: E24 E32 J31 J63
    Date: 2017–03–01
  18. By: Emiliano Libman (Centre for the Study of State and Society, Buenos Aires, Argentina.); Juan Antonio Montecino (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst); Arslan Razmi (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst)
    Abstract: Existing empirical studies have focused on determinants of investment. We focus instead on episodes of accelerated capital stock growth that last eight years or longer. We find that episodes are relatively common, even in low growth regions, but more so in middle income and Asian countries. After identifying 175 such episodes between 1950-2014, we employ probit analysis to explore their characteristics. Turning points in investment tend to be preceded by undervalued real exchange rates, macroeconomic stability (low inflation), and net capital outflows (especially portfolio outflows). We also find strong evidence for a negative correlation with the capital to output ratio and per capita GDP, and a positive correlation with a human capital index. Investment surges appear to be associated with accelerated structural change in the economy.
    Keywords: Investment, accumulation, real exchange rate, terms of trade
    JEL: E22 F41 E20
    Date: 2017
  19. By: Christian Dreger
    Abstract: Euro area countries and Japan are confronted with similar challenges. Potential output is on a falling trend in the euro area, and the decrease started well before the financial crisis. In Japan, low output growth is a striking feature since many years, despite the unconventional monetary policy stance and massive fiscal stimulus programs provided by the government. According to a growth accounting exercise based on a Cobb-Douglas production function, the development in both economies can be traced to a weak evolution of TFP. Weak capital deepening is detected especially in the euro area. Driven by high uncertainty with regard to the business cycle, the willingness of firms to undertake investment is only modest and constitutes the achilles heel for a smooth recovery. Both economies are not well prepared to manage the demographic challenges caused by an elderly population. Given that debt-to-GDP ratios are already at record heights, the scope for further demand driven policies is rather limited, especially in Japan. Instead, structural reforms are on the agenda to promote long run growth and a smooth development of the global economy.
    Keywords: Long run growth, government debt, aging population
    JEL: O40 E60 J11
    Date: 2017
  20. By: Yann Algan (Département d'économie); Olivier Allais (Laboratoire de Recherche sur la Consommation); Edouard Challe (Department of Economics); Xavier Ragot (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)
    Abstract: What are the costs of inflation fluctuations and who bears those costs? In this paper, we investigate this question by means of a quantitative incomplete-market, heterogenous-agent model wherein households hold real and nominal assets and are subject to both idiosyncratic labor income shocks and aggregate inflation risk. Inflation risk is found to generate significant welfare losses for most households, i.e., between 1 and 1.5 percent of permanent consumption. The loss is small or even negative for households at the very top of the productivity and/or wealth distribution. A key feature of our analysis is a nonhomothetic specification for households’ preferences towards money and consumption goods. Unlike traditional specifications, ours allows the model to reproduce the broad features of the distribution of monetary assets (in addition to being consistent with the joint distribution of nonmonetary assets and consumption).
    Keywords: Money-in-the-utility; Incomplete markets; Inflation risk; Welfare
    JEL: E21 E32 E41
    Date: 2016–02
  21. By: Fatih Guvenen; Raymond J. Mataloni, Jr.; Dylan G. Rassier; Kim J. Ruhl
    Abstract: Official statistics display a significant slowdown in U.S. aggregate productivity growth that begins in 2004. In this paper, we investigate a source of mismeasurement in official statistics, which arises from offshore profit shifting by multinational enterprises operating in the United States. This profit shifting causes part of the economic activity generated by these multinationals to be attributed to their foreign affiliates, leading to an understatement of measured U.S. gross domestic product. Profit-shifting activity has increased significantly since the mid-1990s, resulting in an understatement of measured U.S. aggregate productivity growth. We construct adjustments to correct for the effects of profit shifting on measured gross domestic product. The adjustments raise aggregate productivity growth rates by 0.1 percent annually for 1994–2004, 0.25 percent annually for 2004–2008, and leave productivity unchanged after 2008; Our adjustments mitigate, but do not overturn, the productivity slowdown in the official statistics. The adjustments are especially large in R&D-intensive industries, which are most likely to produce intangible assets that are easy to move across borders. The adjustments boost value added in these industries by as much as 8.0 percent annually in the mid-2000s.
    JEL: E01 E24 F23 O4
    Date: 2017–04
  22. By: Guillermo Maya Muñoz
    Abstract: Este ensayo celebra los ochenta años de la Teoría General (1936-2016). El objetivo principal es resaltar el principio de la demanda efectiva como la más grande contribución teórica de JM Keynes a la economía para explicar el nivel del PIB y el empleo, en la economía capitalista, y sus fluctuaciones. Además, se hace hincapié en el capítulo 24, donde se analizan los problemas de la distribución del ingreso y la riqueza, en relación con el nivel de la demanda efectiva. Los altos niveles de desempleo y los bajos niveles de PIB que sufre la economía mundial, desde la crisis de 2008 hasta hoy, se han enfrentado con la eliminación o reducción del gasto gubernamental. Esta situación significa una gran inseguridad económica para millones de personas que no solo tienen que enfrentar el desempleo cíclico, sino también el desempleo tecnológico, con una mayor desigualdad del ingreso. Este no es un mundo keynesiano; éste es un mundo infeliz.
    Keywords: Keynes; Demanda efectiva; desempleo involuntario; desempleo tecnológico; austeridad fiscal.
    JEL: B22 B31 E12 E24 E61
    Date: 2016–06–30
  23. By: Jeremy Lise (University College of London); Jean-Marc Robin (Département d'économie)
    Abstract: We develop an equilibrium model of on-the-job search with ex ante heterogeneous workers and firms, aggregate uncertainty, and vacancy creation. The model produces rich dynamics in which the distributions of unemployed workers, vacancies, and worker-firm matches evolve stochastically over time. We prove that the surplus function, which fully characterizes the match value and the mobility decision of workers, does not depend on these distributions. This result means the model is tractable and can be estimated. We illustrate the quantitative implications of the model by fitting to US aggregate labor market data from 1951–2012. The model has rich implications for the cyclical dynamics of the distribution of skills of the unemployed, the distribution of types of vacancies posted, and sorting between heterogeneous workers and firms.
    Keywords: On-the-job search; Heterogeneity; Aggregate fluctuations; Mismatch
    JEL: E24 E32 J63 J64
    Date: 2016
  24. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: Israel is enjoying strong economic growth, estimated at 4 percent in 2016, supported by strong domestic demand—partly due to high vehicle sales ahead of a tax increase—and an export rebound. Unemployment declined to 4.4 percent in Q4 2016 and wage increases have picked up. Nonetheless, inflation remained below the 1–3 percent target range of the Bank of Israel (BOI), reflecting external factors and government measures to reduce the cost of living. The BOI has held the policy rate at 0.1 percent since February 2015 and stated that monetary policy in Israel will remain accommodative for a considerable time. Strong revenues contained the fiscal deficit to 2.1 percent of GDP in 2016 and the public debt ratio declined to 62 percent of GDP.
    Keywords: Article IV consultation reports;Economic conditions;Economic growth;Fiscal policy;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Bank supervision;Housing;Macroprudential Policy;Economic indicators;Balance of payments statistics;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Israel;
    Date: 2017–03–28
  25. By: William Gatt (Central Bank of Malta)
    Abstract: This study analyses the determinants of the aggregate household saving rate in Malta; an important macroeconomic variable which in standard short-term analysis is considered as a ‘residual’. The aggregate household saving rate, fluctuated significantly over the past thirteen years, rising from 6.4% in 2000 to 10.3% by 2002, falling significantly to 4.1% by 2006, doubling to 8.4% during 2007 and stabilising between 5% and 7% in the years 2008 to 2012. Such sharp swings warrant an investigation to uncover the underlying drivers, and this paper finds evidence that the estimate of the saving rate correlates with a set of macroeconomic variables The results of an estimated equation are in line with the theory and robust to different estimation techniques.
    JEL: E32 E62 H20 H50
  26. By: Hennecke, Peter
    Abstract: In this paper it is shown that the ECB's main refinance rate, measured by various Taylor-rules, is far too low for Germany for over half a decade. That entails risks for the stability of Germany's financial system. How strong these risks materialize depends on the extent to which German banks pass on the low policy rates to their customers. In this paper, the interest rate pass-through in Germany in the low interest era is investigated using error-correction models for various bank interest rates. The results indicate a stronger short-term pass-through as well as diminished interest rate margins that weigh on banks' profits. However, there is no evidence for structural changes in the long-term relationship between policy rates and banks' interest rates. While the latter might be soothing for monetary policy makers, the former is rather a reason for concern.
    Keywords: low interest rates,interest rate pass-through,interest rate channel
    JEL: E43 E58
    Date: 2017
  27. By: Q. Farooq Akram (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway)); Jon H. Findreng
    Abstract: We investigate pricing and activity in the Norwegian unsecured overnight interbank market in response to a shift in the central bank's liquidity policy. In october 2011, to encourage interbank trading, banks were allotted quotas for their overnight deposits with remuneration at the key policy rate while that on overnight deposits beyond allotted quotas was set one percentage point lower. In addition, a target range for banks' total overnight deposits was introduced and supported by open market operations to counteract not only temporary liquidity shortfalls, but also surpluses. We document substantially higher interbank trading, lower interbank interest rates relative to the policy rate as well as lower interest rate volatility following the policy shift. Notably, while overnight interbank interest rates were generally above the key policy rate before the policy shift, they have been close to but generally below the key policy rate afterwards.
    Keywords: Overnight interbank market, liquidity policy, regime-switching models
    JEL: G21 E43 E58
    Date: 2017–04–19
  28. By: ROUIESSI, Imane (Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche)
    Abstract: Les coûts économiques et sociaux très élevés des crises financières ont amené les Banques centrales à inscrire la stabilité financière, en plus de la stabilité des prix, au cœur de leurs préoccupations. Néanmoins, la stabilité financière demeure une notion complexe dont la définition reste difficile à cerner et les objectifs des Banques centrales en la matière sont moins clairs et précis que dans le domaine monétaire. Ce papier a pour objectif de présenter une synthèse des réflexions sur cette nouvelle mission des Banques centrales. D’abord, il aborde les difficultés liées à la définition de ce concept. Ensuite, il examine les sources d’instabilité financière évoquées dans la littérature. Enfin, il met l’accent sur la politique macroprudentielle et son organisation institutionnelle.
    Keywords: stabilité financière; risque systémique; politique macroprudentielle
    JEL: E44 E58 G00
    Date: 2016–07–01
  29. By: Francesco Zanetti; Philip Liu
    Abstract: Abstract This paper develops a change-point VAR model that isolates four major macroeconomic regimes in the US since the 1960s. The model identi es shocks to demand, supply, monetarypolicy, and spread yield using restrictions from a general equilibrium model. The analysis discloses important changes to the statistical properties of key macroeconomic variables and their responses to the identi ed shocks. During the crisis period, spread shocks became more important for movements in unemployment and in ation. A counterfactual exercise evaluates the importance of lower bond-yield spread during the crises and suggests that the Fed's largescale asset purchases helped lower the unemployment rate by about 0.6 percentage points, while boosting in ation by about 1 percentage point.
    Keywords: change-point VAR model, global nancial crisis, large-scale asset purchases
    JEL: E42 E52
    Date: 2017–04–23
  30. By: Ricardo Reis
    Abstract: Central banks affect the resources available to fiscal authorities through the impact of their policies on the public debt, as well as through their income, their mix of assets, their liabilities, and their own solvency. This paper inspects the ability of the central bank to alleviate the fiscal burden by in uencing different terms in the government resource constraint. It discusses five channels: (i) how in ation can (and cannot) lower the real burden of the public debt, (ii) how seignorage is generated and subject to what constraints, (iii) whether central bank liabilities should count as public debt, (iv) how central bank assets create income risk, and whether or not this threatens its solvency, and (v) how the central bank balance sheet can be used for fiscal redistributions. Overall, it concludes that the scope for the central bank to lower the fiscal burden is limited.
    Keywords: Monetary Policy; Reserves; Interest Rates; Quantitative Easing
    JEL: E52 E58 E63
    Date: 2016–12
  31. By: Kevin Kotze (School of Economics, University of Cape Town)
    Abstract: This paper considers the effect of fiscal volatility shocks on key macroeconomic variables. The identification of these shocks is derived from a stochastic volatility model that is applied to policy rules for each fiscal instrument. Thereafter, a vector autoregressive model makes use of these measures in a reduced-form setting to consider the effect of an aggregate fiscal volatility shock on economic output, consumption, investment, prices and interest rates. The final part of the analysis involves the construction of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that may be used to investigate the effects of an unexpected increase in the volatility of each fiscal instrument. The results suggest that fiscal volatility shocks produce prolonged contractions in economic output, consumption and investment. In addition, the labour market is also negatively affected, while gross markups and inflation increase. Hence, it is suggested that fiscal volatility shocks have had an important adverse effect on economic activity in South Africa.
    Date: 2017
  32. By: Ricardo Reis
    Abstract: While there is much that is wrong with macroeconomics today, most critiques of the state of macroeconomics are off target. Current macroeconomic research is not mindless DSGE modeling filled with ridiculous assumptions and oblivious of data. Rather, young macroeconomists are doing vibrant, varied, and exciting work, getting jobs, and being published. Macroeconomics informs economic policy only moderately and not more nor all that differently than other fields in economics. Monetary policy has benefitted significantly from this advice in keeping inflation under control and preventing a new Great Depression. Macroeconomic forecasts perform poorly in absolute terms and given the size of the challenge probably always will. But relative to the level of aggregation, the time horizon, and the amount of funding, they are not so obviously worst than those in other fields. What is most wrong with macroeconomics today is perhaps that there is too little discussion of which models to teach and too little investment in graduate-level textbooks.
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2017–04
  33. By: Aaron G Grech (Central Bank of Malta)
    Abstract: This paper surveys the performance of the Maltese economy in the first half century since independence. The picture that emerges is of a nation that has benefitted from an extraordinary rate of economic growth and a significant reduction in volatility. The Maltese economy has matured exceedingly rapidly, with cycles of inflation and unemployment becoming much less pronounced and with a consistent underlying downward trend. The economic structure has shifted strongly towards services, which has led to an increased demand for labour that has accommodated the secular rise in female participation.
    JEL: N13 E24 E3 H6
  34. By: Khani Hoolari, Seyed Morteza; Taghinejad Omran, Vahid
    Abstract: In this paper we present a framework showing how governments use debt to flaunt competency and increase their votes and the chances of reelection; however, a cognitive bias, namely, the cyclist bias, would disrupt government’s computations. In this model the government’s budget deficit as well as changes in debt would be evaluated in a steady state. We show that debt is a double-edged sword and the more the government relies on debt to show its competency, the more the people understand the manipulations at work behind such measures. On equilibrium, due to cognitive bias in the behavior of individuals, the government will choose budget deficit which it is increasing, leading to the fall of the current incumbent and ultimately the opposition party would take over the power. The model can provide theoretical foundations for what the empirical study of Brender & Drazen (2008) concludes: expansive fiscal policies before elections won't increase reelection probability.
    Keywords: Natural budget deficit, Natural political cyclicality, Cyclist bias
    JEL: D72 E03 E32 E62 H30 H60
    Date: 2017–04–04
  35. By: Vegard Høghaug Larsen (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))
    Abstract: Uncertainty is acknowledged to be a source of economic fluctuations. But, does the type of uncertainty matter for the economy's response to an uncertainty shock? This paper offers a novel identi cation strategy to disentangle different types of uncertainty. It uses machine learning techniques to classify different types of news instead of specifying a set of keywords. It is found that, depending on its source, the effects of uncertainty on macroeconomic variable may differ. I find that both good(expansionary effect) and bad (contractionary effect) types of uncertainty exist.
    Keywords: Newspaper, Topic model, Uncertainty, Business cycles, Machine learning
    JEL: D80 E32 E66
    Date: 2017–04–18
  36. By: César Pabón; Juan Guillermo Bedoya
    Abstract: Este trabajo examina la forma como se ha manejado la política monetaria para el caso de Colombia, tras la implementación oficial del esquema de Inflación Objetivo. Para ese propósito, se analiza la estabilidad en los parámetros de la estimación de la Regla de Taylor por medio de un modelo linear dinámico para el período comprendido entre 2000 y 2014. Se puede concluir que la función de reacción de la tasa de intervención del Banco Central ha variado de manera coherente con la consolidación gradual del esquema de Inflación Objetivo. Adicionalmente, a pesar de la discusión teórica que se ha generado recientemente por la inclusión de algunas variables adicionales dentro de esta regla de política, tales como el crédito o el tipo de cambio, el trabajo demostró que esos objetivos no han sido relevantes a la hora determinar la política de intervención de la tasa de interés.
    Keywords: Regla de Política Monetaria; Modelo linear dinámico; Filtro de Kalman;Objetivos de Política.
    JEL: E41 E52 E58
    Date: 2016–12–28
  37. By: Domenico Lombardi; Pierre L. Siklos; Samantha St. Amand
    Abstract: Empirical evidence on the potential impact of central bank policies on government bond yields at the effective lower bound (ELB) is presented for nine economies. We quantify the content of central bank communications and consider international policy spillovers. At the ELB, yields at the medium-to-longer end of the yield curve remain responsive to news for a few years after the ELB is reached. Yields become more sensitive to the content central bank communication at the ELB. Our results provides further evidence that central bank communication is an important element of monetary policy making when the interest rate tool loses efficacy.
    JEL: E52 E58 G12 F42
    Date: 2017–04
  38. By: Rosli, Aini Rafiqah
    Abstract: This paper are for recognize the relationship between risk and performance of Hong Leong Bank. Hong Leong Bank is one of the bank that have a good reputation in banking industry at Malaysia. Thus, it is important to shareholder knows the type of risk that faced by management of bank. The focused risk is leverage and external factor that are inflation by using profitability as the bank’s indicator which is by using ROA and current ratio. Aside that, the external factor such as inflation also give an impact to the performance of bank. The leverage and inflation are significant in business due to the direct and indirect relationship to the profitability. Therefore, this paper further examines if management have taken a serious step in maintaining the risk that will give any reflect to the profitability.
    Keywords: bank’s performance ;leverage ; inflation.
    JEL: A10 A12 A13 D4 D49 E6 E66 G1 G10 G2 G21 G3 G32
    Date: 2017–03–30
  39. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: The Netherlands is in the third year of a gradual recovery. Following a double-dip recession, the economy has been steadily accelerating in the context of increasing house prices and gradually improving household balance sheets, rising consumption but weak credit growth. Growth is projected to remain solid in the baseline, but it will be held back by the ongoing process of deleveraging on the part of banks, firms, and households and by lackluster medium-term prospects for the country’s major trading partners (including in relation to Brexit). In this scenario, the economy is only projected to return to potential in 2019.
    Date: 2017–04–03
  40. By: Bridges, Jonathan (Bank of England); Jackson, Christopher (Bank of England); McGregor, Daisy (Bank of England)
    Abstract: We investigate the role of private sector credit in shaping the severity of recessions. Using a sample of 130 downturns in 26 advanced economies since the 1970s, we assess whether the growth or level of credit is the better predictor of the severity of a recession. In addition to GDP we examine other metrics of severity, including unemployment and labour productivity. We find that a period of rapid credit growth in the immediate run-up to a recession predicts a deeper and longer downturn than when credit growth has been subdued, whether associated with a systemic banking crisis or not and whether that credit growth reflects borrowing by households or businesses. Credit growth is a more statistically and economically significant predictor of a recession’s severity than the level of indebtedness, though there is some evidence that the effect of a credit boom is greater when leverage is high. A build-up in credit predicts worse recessions in terms of lower GDP per capita, higher unemployment and lost labour productivity.
    Keywords: Recessions; productivity; local projections
    JEL: E51 G01 N10
    Date: 2017–04–21
  41. By: Buchheim, Lukas (University of Munich); Watzinger, Martin (University of Munich)
    Abstract: We estimate the causal impact of a sizable German infrastructure investment program on employment at the county level. The program focused on improving the energy efficiency of school buildings, making it possible to use the number of schools as an instrument for investments. We find that the program was effective, creating one job for one year for each €25\'000 of investments. The employment gains reached their peak after nine months and dropped to zero quickly after the program\'s completion. The reductions in unemployment amounted to two-thirds of the job creation, and employment grew predominately in the construction and non-tradable industries.
    Keywords: infrastructure investments; job creation; employment dynamics; countercyclical fiscal policy;
    JEL: E24 E62 H72
    Date: 2017–03–25
  42. By: Kollmann, Robert
    Abstract: This note discusses the drivers of the persistent post-crisis slump in the Euro Area (EA) and the US, and it gives a brief overview of the research literature that studies the slump. The note argues that financial shocks were key determinants of the 2008-09 Great Recession, for both the EA and the US. The post-2009 slump in the EA mainly reflects a combination of adverse aggregate demand and supply shocks, in particular lower productivity growth, and persistent adverse shocks to capital investment, linked to the poor health of the EA financial system. Adverse financial shocks were less persistent for the US.
    Keywords: post-crisis slump in Euro Area and US, 2008-09 Great Recession, financial shocks, demand shocks, supply shocks.
    JEL: E3 E65 E66 F4 F44
    Date: 2017–03–31
  43. By: Leyla Baştav
    Abstract: The paper analyses the dynamics of the major macroeconomic aggregates of the US economy through the recession following 2008 financial crises up until 2015 theoretically in an IS-LM and AS-AD framework.The paper also compares and contrasts the Great Recession with the Great Depression of 1929 within the theoretical framework. DSGE modelling framework explained with the Keynesian framework of IS-LM. Role of expectations on demand side spending, nominal and real wage rigidities thus leading to sticky inflation, (typical price stickiness), also role of monetary policy (demand management) pushing the economy out of recession and stagflation are discussed. The economy has been pulled out of recession and broken the vicious cycle of stagflation and thus depression with expansionary monetary policies. Still the economy needs fine tuning since the growth performance may be fragile in the coming terms.
    Keywords: USA, General equilibrium modeling, Business cycles
    Date: 2016–07–04
  44. By: Mark Aguiar; Satyajit Chatterjee; Harold Cole; Zachary Stangebye
    Abstract: We revisit self-fulfilling rollover crises by introducing an alternative equilibrium selection that involves bond auctions at depressed but strictly positive equilibrium prices, a scenario in line with observed sovereign debt crises. We refer to these auctions as “desperate deals,” the defining feature of which is a price schedule that makes the government indifferent to default or repayment. The government randomizes at the time of repayment, which we show can be implemented in pure strategies by introducing stochastic political payoffs or external bailouts. Quantitatively, auctions at fire-sale prices are crucial for generating realistic spread volatility.
    JEL: E6 F34
    Date: 2017–04
  45. By: Jang, Tae-Seok; Sacht, Stephen
    Abstract: The notion of bounded rationality has received a considerable attention in the midst of debate over the usefulness of various macroeconomic models. In this paper we empirically seek to analyze the baseline New-Keynesian model with heterogeneous agents who may adopt various heuristics used to forecast future movements in consumption. Agents could exhibit an optimistic or pessimistic view or act as fundamentalists or chartists when forming expectations on future consumption based on discrete choice. Our empirical results via the Simulated Method of Moment Approach show that consumer confidence in the US is heavily grounded on consumers' emotional state (with respect to optimism and pessimism), while for the Euro Area it is most likely technical in nature (with respect to fundamentalists and chartists). These heuristics lead to an equivalent or even better fit to the data compared to the hybrid version of the baseline New-Keynesian model. We argue that this study could open up new possibilities for estimating bounded rationality models and policy analysis.
    Keywords: Bounded Rationality,Consumer Confidence,New-Keynesian Model,Forecast Heuristics,Simulated Method of Moments
    JEL: C53 D83 E12 E32
    Date: 2017
  46. By: Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia (Bank of England); Ricco, Giovanni (University of Warwick)
    Abstract: Despite years of research, there is still uncertainty around the effects of monetary policy shocks. We reassess the empirical evidence by combining a new identification that accounts for informational rigidities, with a flexible econometric method robust to misspecifications that bridges between VARs and Local Projections. We show that most of the lack of robustness of the results in the extant literature is due to compounding unrealistic assumptions of full information with the use of severely misspecified models. Using our novel methodology, we find that a monetary tightening is unequivocally contractionary, with no evidence of either price or output puzzles.
    Keywords: Monetary policy; local projections; VARs; expectations; information rigidity; survey forecasts; external instruments
    JEL: C11 C14 E52 G14
    Date: 2017–04–21
  47. By: Brian Bonis; Jane E. Ihrig; Min Wei
    Abstract: In an effort to promote more accommodative financial conditions following the financial crisis of 2008 and the ensuing recession, and at a time when the conventional monetary policy tool--the federal funds rate--was at its effective lower bound, the Federal Reserve conducted large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) and a maturity extension program (MEP). This note outlines a way to estimate by how much Federal Reserve securities holdings resulting from these purchase programs reduce longer-term interest rates. In this note, we focus on another channel through which LSAPs may affect the economy: the portfolio balance channel.
    Date: 2017–04–20
  48. By: Aaron G. Grech (Central Bank of Malta)
    Abstract: This paper, after reviewing the most used method from the two main branches of empirical investigation, namely the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter and the production function, argues that they both suffer from significant failings when applied to very small and open economies like Malta.
    JEL: B41 C18 E32 F41
  49. By: Sylvester Andreas, Flora Kumang
    Abstract: Business companies may face a number of speculative financial risks. Successful in every firms based on how they manage the financial risks that are exposures to lose or profit. This study issue to identify the liquidity, a macroeconomic phenomenon and inventory turnover in KUB Malaysia Sdn Bhd. This study was according to 5 years period from year 2011 to 2015. The data were taken from annual report that are listed in Bursa Malaysia. Liquidity ratios and inventory turnover ratio are measured by using certain formulae. We can see the significantly between quick ratio and inventory turnover in descriptive results. A higher value of quick ratio indicates a higher degree of liquidity. (Ali, 2005) found that liquidity adds to number of disappointment in Islamic banks and ordinary banks alike in spite of having admittance to outer liquidity of traditional banks. Thus, a higher value of inventory ratio indicates that inventory can be sold and replaced more frequently. The data was conducted by using regression and bivariate correlation.
    Keywords: Liquidity, macroeconomics, inventory turnover
    JEL: E0 E02 E03 G1 G2 G3 G33
    Date: 2017–04–10
  50. By: Auboin, Marc; Borino, Floriana
    Abstract: Since the recovery from the great financial crisis in 2010, global real trade flows grew much slower than pre-crisis, in both absolute terms (growth rates) and relative terms (relative to GDP, from 2:1 in the great 1990's to 1:1 since 2012) A debate has arisen as to whether this global trade slowdown, and related falling trade-to-income elasticity, was structural or cyclical. Some papers emphasized the slowing pace of international vertical specialization. Other works emphasized the prominent role of aggregate demand, notably when weighted by its trade component. Our paper goes in this latter direction. We estimated the standard import equation for 38 advanced and developing countries over the period 1995-2015, using an import intensity-adjusted measure of aggregate demand (IAD), calculated from input-output tables at country level, and compared results with regressions using GDP. The integration of IAD allows us to predict 76% to 86% of the changes in global imports, a better performance than if using GDP. The use of IAD also enabled us to measure the relative importance of each component of demand, according to their trade intensity. The model is able to account for over 90% of the recent trade slowdown (2012-2015), with IAD alone explaining 80% of it. The slowdown in global value chains explains more than half of the remaining share of the global trade slowdown, not explained by demand factors. Protectionism does not come up as statistically significant.
    Keywords: investment,global outlook, trade policy,trade forecasting,business cycles
    JEL: E22 F01 F13 F17 F44
    Date: 2017
  51. By: Nayan, Norma
    Abstract: The paper aims to recognize the relationship between risk and profit in the company Petroliam Nasional Berhad (PETRONAS). This company is one of the leading companies in oil and gas industry, therefore, knowing the risk taken by the company and their management and the impact on the profit to the shareholder. The main focus in this paper is to recognized risk especially in operational risk, liquidity risk and credit risk while the profit is indicate by using ROA, ROE, Profit Margin Ratio, Debt to Equity Ratio, Debt to Asset Ratio and Interest Coverage Ratio. In addition, the size of the company is considered to have relationship with the risk factor. It involved the total assets and the Malaysian economic outlook looking at the GDP growth, inflation, exchange rate and the unemployment. In addition, Pearson correlation coefficient and significant (1-tailed) are used to find the relationship between the ROA and the 13 items that be as independent variables. The ROE and Profit Margin Ratio are significant in this business due to the direct and indirect relationship to the profitability in the company. In conclusion, this paper takes further examines if the company has taken the appropriate decision in retaining the risk as mention that will reflected to the profitability and the growth of the company.
    Keywords: Keywords: company performance, operational risk, liquidity risk and credit risk, return on asset, return on equity, profit margin ratio, debt to equity ratio, current ratio, quick ratio, cash ratio, interest coverage ratio, GDP, inflation, exchange rate, unemployment.
    JEL: D8 G3 G32
    Date: 2017–04–16
  52. By: Ece D. Erol (Celal Bayar University, Department of Economics); Ibrahim Erol (Celal Bayar University, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: Kuresel doviz kuru savaslarinin perde arkasinda sanayi ulkelerinin uyguladiklari asiri genisleyici para politikalari yatmaktadir. Genisleyici para politikasi doviz kurlarinin degerini dusurmekte ve rekabet halinde olan ekonomilerde fiyatlar acisindan kuresel rekabet gucunun iyilesmesine neden olmaktadir. Bu calismanin amaci sanayi ulkelerinde uygulanan para ve doviz kuru politikalarini incelemek, doviz kuru savaslarinin olasi ihtimalini tartismak ve bu politikalarin gelisme yolundaki ulke ekonomilerine yansimalarini incelemektir. En buyuk tehlike sanayi ulkelerinin uygulamakta olduklari para ve doviz kuru politikalarinin “beggar-thy-neighbour-politics” komsunun sirtindan gecinme politikasi sayesinde kendi aralarinda bir doviz kuru savaslarinin olabilecegi kanisidir. Ayrica gelisme yolundaki ulkelere olan kuresel sermaye akimlari doviz kurlarinda sik sik degismelere neden olmakta ve bu ulkelerin ekonomilerine zarar vermektedir.
    Keywords: Doviz kuru politikasi, Merkez Bankalari, Para Arzi ve Kredi Politikasi
    JEL: E51 E58 F3
    Date: 2015–12
  53. By: Pham, Ngoc-Sang
    Abstract: The paper introduces assets whose dividends can take any value (positive, negative or zero) in a dynamic general equilibrium model with financial market imperfections. We investigate the interplay between the asset markets and the production sector. The behavior of asset price and value is also studied.
    Keywords: Infinite-horizon, general equilibrium, productivity, asset price, negative dividend
    JEL: D5 D90 E44 G12
    Date: 2017–04–07
  54. By: NAGORE GARCIA Amparo
    Abstract: Using administrative data from Spanish Social Security for the period 2002-2013, we explore differences between unemployed men and women in their probabilities to find a job, their initial wages if they find a new job, and the likelihood to fall back into unemployment. We estimate bivariate proportional hazard models for unemployment duration and for the consecutive job duration for men and women separately, and decompose the gender gap using a non-linear Oaxaca decomposition. Gender differentials in labour market outcomes are procyclical, probably due to the procyclical nature of typically male occupations. While a higher level of education protects women in particular from unemployment, having children hampers women?s employment and initial wages after unemployment. There are lower gender gaps in the public sector and in high technology- firms. Decompositions show that the gender gaps are not explained by differences in sample composition. Indeed, if women had similar characteristics to men, the gender gap would be even wider.
    Keywords: unemployment duration; job duration; decomposition; labour market outcomes
    JEL: C14 E32 J62 J64
    Date: 2017–04
  55. By: Bendel, Daniel; Voigtländer, Michael
    Abstract: Es besteht ein enger Zusammenhang zwischen der Bürobeschäftigung und dem Büromarkt. Schließlich ist die Bürobeschäftigung der wesentliche Treiber der Nachfrage nach Büroimmobilien. Das IW Köln erhebt seit einigen Jahren auf Basis einer eigenen Methodik die Bürobeschäftigung. In dieser Analyse werden sowohl Trends über alle Städte als auch die Entwicklung innerhalb der Branchen der Bürobeschäftigung in ausgewählten Städten untersucht. Neben deskriptiven Analysen wird auch eine Clusteranalyse durchgeführt, um vergleichbare Entwicklungen zu identifizieren und Hinweise für Portfoliostrategien zu erhalten. Die Bürobeschäftigung in Deutschland und insbesondere in den Städten wächst. Teilweise liegen die Zuwächse sogar deutlich über dem Wachstum aller sozialversicherungspflichtig (SVP) Beschäftigten, wobei einige Branchen hierbei hervorstechen. Gerade die Zuwächse in den Segmenten Unternehmensberatung und IT im weiteren Sinne verdeutlichen, dass vor allem Arbeitsplätze für Hochqualifizierte entstehen, die ihrerseits wiederum die Wohnungsnachfrage in den Städten treiben. Anderen Branchen wie beispielsweise die der Pensionskassen und Versicherungen aber auch die Telekommunikationsbranche verzeichnen dagegen teils starke Rückgänge bei den Bürobeschäftigungszahlen. Mainz, Wiesbaden und Magdeburg weisen jeweils Verluste der Bürobeschäftigten auf. Andere Städte, vor allem im Süden Deutschlands (allen voran Fürth und Ingolstadt), verzeichnen dagegen starke Zuwächse der Bürobeschäftigtenzahlen. Zudem ergibt die Clusteranalyse, dass sich Städte wie Dresden und Leipzig in ihrer Entwicklung an westdeutsche Städte wie Köln und Düsseldorf angleichen.
    JEL: R3 E31 E32 J20
    Date: 2016
  56. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: This is the first Article IV Consultation since Nauru became the 189th Fund member in April 2016. Nauru’s growth and government revenue have improved substantially in recent years owing to the Australian Regional Processing Center (RPC) to process asylum seekers, fishing license fees, and residual phosphate mining. However, Nauru faces daunting challenges in sustaining growth and ensuring fiscal sustainability due to its limited sources of growth and income. The country is also vulnerable to climate change, its antiquated infrastructure hampers trade and growth, and its health indicators are below those of peers due to high incidence of non-communicable diseases.
    Date: 2017–04–03
  57. By: Pinar Karahan (Anadolu University, Department of Economics); Nilgun Caglairmak Uslu (Anadolu University, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: Turkiye'nin en onemli makroekonomik sorunlarindan biri, sureklilik arz eden cari islemler acigidir. Turkiye ekonomisinde kredi hacmi ozellikle kuresel finans krizinden sonra cari islemler aciginin temel belirleyicileri arasinda gosterilmektedir. TCMB, 2008 yili kuresel finans krizi sonrasi yasanan hizli kredi genislemesinin cari dengeyi olumsuz yonde etkilemesine karsilik, kredi genislemesini yavaslatarak finansal istikrarin saglanmasina yonelik politika uygulamaya baslamistir. Bu calismada, Turkiye'deki mevduat bankalarinin ozel sektore kullandirdigi krediler ile cari islemler acigi arasindaki iliski, 2005:Q1-2015:Q3 donemi verileri kullanilarak, Sinir testi yaklasimi, ARDL modeli ve Kalman Filtresi yaklasimiyla analiz edilmistir. Sinir testi sonuclari cari islemler acigi ile kredi hacmi arasinda esbutunlesme iliskisinin oldugunu; ARDL modeli sonuclari kredi hacminin cari islemler acigini kisa ve uzun donemde pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamli etkiledigini gostermistir. Kalman Filtresi modeli sonuclari ise kredi hacminin cari islemler acigi uzerindeki etkisinin kuresel finans krizi doneminde azaldigini ortaya koymustur.
    Keywords: Cari Acik, Kredi Hacmi, Sinir Testi, Kalman Filtresi
    JEL: E42 E51 F32 C32
    Date: 2016–10
  58. By: François Koulischer (Banque centrale du Luxembourg); Patrick Van Roy (NBB, Prudential Policy and Financial Stability, and Université libre de Bruxelles)
    Abstract: We show that illiquid assets such as bank loans are used by euro area banks both as central bank collateral for short-term liquidity insurance purposes and for longer-term funding purposes for issuing covered bonds or asset-backed securities. We then explore the determinants of the choice of using bank loans for short-term liquidity insurance purposes or long-term funding purposes focusing on the case of Belgian banks. We find that (1) loan types are key to alleviating asymmetries of information; (2) regulatory requirements play a major role in the choices of banks, both directly and indirectly through clientele effects and (3) there are significant switching costs between the various uses of bank loans as collateral so historical decisions also determine the use of bank loans as collateral.
    Keywords: Collateral, securitisation, bank loans, liquidity
    JEL: E52 E58 G01 F36
    Date: 2017–04
  59. By: Franziska Pudelko (Department of Geography, Philipps University Marburg); Christian Hundt (Department of Geography, Ruhr University Bochum)
    Abstract: The paper empirically investigates the economic resilience of Western German regions in the wake of the Great Recession of 2008/2009. In particular, the focus is laid on the influence of regional agglomeration economies (arising from specialization, related and unrelated variety) and the explicit sudivision of short-term resilience into resistance and recovery. The necessity to distinguish between different factors and phases is well documented by means of the OLS regression results as all three types of agglomeration economies reveal varying, if not opposing directions of influences across the resistance and recovery phase. A pregnant example refers to regional specialization. Not only does it show a negative impact on resistance while exerting a positive influence during the recovery phase, but it is also mediated by the regional share in manufacturing workforce. This workforce reveals opposing phase-specific facts itself. hence, ignoring the two-component structure of short-term resilience entails the risk of imprecise, if not false conclusions on the driving mechanisms stabilizing and/or destabilizing regional economies in times of crisis.
    Keywords: regional economic resilience, resistance, recovery, agglomeration economies, industry structure
    JEL: R11 R12 E32
    Date: 2017–03
  60. By: Guillaume Vuillemey (Département d'économie); Etienne Wasmer (Département d'économie)
    Abstract: Bubbles are recurrent events, which contribute to both macroeconomic and employment volatility. We introduce stochastic bubbles in the standard search-and matching model of the labor market. The economy alternates between latent and bubbly states, each being associated with a distinct solution for the market value of firms (respectively, stable or explosive). Bubbles in firm value induce distortions in hiring decisions and wages, which we explicitly characterize. Faced with bubbles, the social planner optimally deviates from the standard Hosios efficiency condition. The optimal share of workers in total surplus must be above the elasticity of hiring rates, by a small but increasing amount as the bubble expands. Finally, our specification for bubbles significantly improves the quantitative ability of the model to match U.S. data, along both real and financial dimensions.
    Keywords: Unemployemnt volatility; Labor frictions; Bubbles
    JEL: E32 J60
    Date: 2016–10
  61. By: Fehr, Dietmar (University of Heidelberg); Heinemann, Frank (Technical University of Berlin); Llorente-Saguer, Aniol (Queen Mary University of London and CEPR)
    Abstract: This paper presents an experiment on a coordination game with extrinsic random signals, in which we systematically vary the stochastic process generating these signals and measure how signals affect behavior. We find that sunspot equilibria emerge naturally if there are salient public signals. However, highly correlated private signals can also lead to sunspot-driven behavior, even when this is not an equilibrium. Private signals reduce the power of public signals as sunspot variables. The higher the correlation of extrinsic signals and the more easily they can be aggregated, the more powerful these signals are in distracting actions from the action that minimizes strategic uncertainty.
    Keywords: Coordination games; strategic uncertainty; sunspot equilibria; forward guidance; expectations;
    JEL: C92 D82 D83 E39 E58
    Date: 2017–03–25
  62. By: Mabel Gabriel (OECD); Patrick Lenain (OECD); Mirna Mehrez; Julien Reynaud (University of Bern); Payal Soneja
    Abstract: The private sector can be a strategic partner in the pursuit of sustainable and inclusive growth, with the ability to have a profound impact, particularly in areas such as climate change, inclusiveness, equality and good governance. Firms could contribute through three different approaches: philanthropic activities not related to the firm’s activities through which businesses seek to contribute to improving social and environmental conditions; initiatives related to the firm’s operations to diminish their negative impacts and to strengthen those that are positive; and development of innovative products and services. Particularly in the latest two approaches, firms themselves stand to benefit in terms of business opportunities, cost reduction, and consumer loyalty. This paper analyses how Mexican firms perform in terms of environmental, social, and governance practices. The paper provides evidence suggesting that contributing to sustained and inclusive growth brings several financial and productivity advantages to firms. This Working Paper relates to the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of Mexico ( y-mexico.htm).
    Keywords: environment, inclusive growth, inequality, participation, productivity
    JEL: E23 E24 H1 I0 I10 J0 J50 M0
    Date: 2017–04–22
  63. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: Slovakia is an economic success story. Sustained convergence since 1995 has lifted real per capita GDP to over 70 percent of the European Union average. The post-crisis recovery has been one of the most robust in Europe and GDP growth is projected to pick up further in the medium term, in part from additional foreign investment in the automotive industry. However, with regional disparities and aging pressures among the most severe in Europe, significant challenges remain. The banking sector also faces vulnerabilities from very high exposure to the real estate sector.
    Keywords: Europe;Slovak Republic;
    Date: 2017–03–23
  64. By: Sergei Guriev (Département d'économie); Nikita Melnikov (Higher School of Economics (HSE))
    Abstract: We use weekly data from 79 Russian regions to measure the impact of economic shocks and proximity to war in Ukraine on social capital in Russian regions. We proxy social capital by the relative intensity of internet searches for the most salient dimensions of pro-social behavior such as "donate blood", "charity", "adopt a child" etc. This measure of social capital is correlated with a survey-based measure of generalized social trust. Our search-based measure of social capital responds negatively to the spikes of inflation and positively to the intensity of the conflict in Ukraine (controlling for region and week fixed effects).
    JEL: D72 D74 E31 P24 P25 P36 Z13
    Date: 2016–05
  65. By: Spiegel, Mark M. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco); Tai, Andrew (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
    Abstract: We examine the implications of Japanese monetary shocks under recent very low and sometimes negative interest rates to the Japanese economy as well as three of its major trading partners: Korea, China and the United States. We follow the literature in using movements in 2-year Japanese government bond rates as proxies for changes in monetary conditions in the neighborhood of the zero lower bound. We examine the implications of shocks to the 2-year rate in a series of factor-augmented vector autoregressive—or FAVAR—models, in which both local and global conditions are proxied by latent factors generated from domestic economic indicators and weighted indicators of major trading partners, respectively. Our results suggest that shocks to 2-year Japanese rates do have substantive impacts on Japanese economic activity and inflation in conditions of low or even negative short-term rates. However, we find only modest global spillovers from Japanese monetary policy shocks, as their impact on the economic conditions of major Japanese trading partners is muted, particularly relative to the impact of innovations in 2-year U.S. Treasury yields over the same period.
    Date: 2017–02–28
  66. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: The slump in oil prices and production and an inadequate policy response are increasing unemployment and undermining efforts to reduce poverty. The authorities took some steps in 2016 to reduce vulnerabilities, mainly by deregulating fuel prices, increasing the monetary policy rate, and allowing currency depreciation to reduce the exchange rate misalignment. However, further actions are urgently needed to tackle the low revenue effort, large infrastructure deficit, rising debt service, double-digit inflation, and a foreign exchange market marred by restrictions. These actions need to be supported by continued efforts to counter militant activity in the Niger Delta and an insurgency-related humanitarian crisis in the North East.
  67. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: A moderate recovery has set in, supported by an increasing number of new firms and rising employment. Fiscal deficits are contained and some efforts are underway to assess and better address test banking sector weaknesses. However, the challenges of restoring financial stability, creating fiscal space, and achieving sustainable growth remain considerable.
  68. By: Fu, Guanxing (Humboldt University Berlin); Horst, Ulrich (Humboldt University Berlin)
    Abstract: This paper establishes the existence of relaxed solutions to mean eld games (MFGs for short) with singular controls. As a by-product, we obtain an existence of relaxed solutions results for McKean-Vlasov stochastic singular control problems. Finally, we prove approximations of solutions results for a particular class of MFGs with singular controls by solutions, respectively control rules, for MFGs with purely regular controls. Our existence and approximation results strongly hinge on the use of the Skorokhod M1 topology on the space of cadlag functions.
    Keywords: Mean field game; singular control; relaxed control; skorokhod m1 topology;
    JEL: E20 H30
    Date: 2017–03–23
  69. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: Following the 2014–15 crisis, the economy is growing again and tight fiscal and monetary policies have greatly reduced internal and external imbalances. Inflation has been successfully brought down and reserves—while still being relatively low—have doubled to US$15 billion. The pace of the recovery, however, has been modest, and faster growth is needed if Ukraine is to catch up with its regional peers and lift per capita income levels that have declined to among the lowest in the region.
    Date: 2017–04–04
  70. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: South Sudan has suffered civil conflict, political instability and external shocks in the past three years. A steep decline in oil production and a sharp drop in oil prices have caused large shortfalls in foreign exchange receipts and government revenue. Continued high government spending led to massive fiscal deficits that were either monetized or financed through accumulation of arrears. The country is in a deep economic crisis with annual inflation peaking at 550 percent in September 2016 and a precipitous currency depreciation. Gross international reserves have dropped to about one week of import cover. A relapse of violence in July 2016 following the formation of the Transitional Government of National Unity three months earlier compounded the already existing humanitarian crisis and derailed the peace process. The hope is that the country charts a new course toward a broad-based and inclusive political process and economic development.
    Keywords: Article IV consultation reports;External shocks;Economic conditions;Stabilization measures;Fiscal policy;Financial management;Oil sector;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Exchange restrictions;Economic indicators;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;South Sudan;
    Date: 2017–03–23
  71. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: Despite some limited improvement in labor market conditions, unemployment remains high and growth modest as low competitiveness and structural bottlenecks continue to weigh on economic performance. Slow progress in addressing financial sector problems has left banks loaded with impaired assets and unable to support the economy. The new government is developing a program of pro-growth reforms, but policies have not yet been defined.
    Date: 2017–03–31
  72. By: Óscar Andrés Espinosa Acuña
    Abstract: Disponer de adecuados pronósticos para las reservas internacionales resulta relevante a fin de sustentar la toma de decisiones por parte de las autoridades monetarias encargadas de su administración. La presente investigación compara la capacidad de pronóstico para dicha variable en Colombia a través de varios modelos con fundamento económico subyacente, así como sistemas estadísticos de series temporales univariadas, multivariadas y de heterocedasticidad condicional, ajenos a la teoría económica. Dada la especificación de la muestra (2000Q1-2014Q3), el mejor modelo resulta ser el de vectores autorregresivos cointegrado en niveles con variables exógenas. Adicionalmente, se estima econométricamente el coeficiente de compensación de corto plazo para Colombia utilizando las perspectivas monetarista, de portafolio y keynesiana, argumentando la hipótesis de que el Banco de la República tiene el poder de afectar la base monetaria por medio de cambios en el activo interno neto.
    Keywords: Reservas internacionales; capacidad de pronóstico; coeficiente de compensación; Banco de la República.
    JEL: C1 F3 E17
    Date: 2016–06–30
  73. By: Antonio Ribba; Pietro Dallari
    Abstract: In this paper we aim to investigate the effects of several types of shocks on unemployment in peripheral European countries under the EMU. We use a structural near-VAR model to account for the supranational conduct of monetary policy on the one hand, and domestic fiscal policy and financial shocks on the other hand. Our main findings are: (i) the unemployment multipliers of government spending shocks are higher than the ones associated with government revenues shocks, and they vary across countries; (ii) instability in the unemployment responses over time is marked, with evidence that a regime shift took place in some countries since 2007; (iii) fiscal and financial shocks are not among the long-term drivers of unemployment, but instead a more important role is played by Euro area-wide shocks, with a pre-eminent role for the common monetary policy shock.
    Keywords: Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain., Business cycles, Macroeconometric modeling
    Date: 2016–07–04
  74. By: BENNOUNA, Hicham (Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche); LAHLOU, Kamal (Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche); MOSSADAK, Anas (Université Mohammed V de Rabat)
    Abstract: La compréhension de la transmission des décisions de politique monétaire présente un enjeu majeur pour les Banques centrales vu qu’elle permet d’informer sur leur capacité à orienter les sphères financière et réelle par le biais des instruments dont elles disposent. Dans cette perspective, ce travail présente une analyse des canaux de transmission de la politique monétaire au Maroc, moyennant d’une part, l’évaluation de l’environnement de mise en œuvre de la politique monétaire, et d’autre part, l’estimation de deux modèles SVAR et NKM permettant de mesurer empiriquement l’amplitude des réactions aux chocs monétaires. L’analyse du cadre institutionnel et de l’environnement macrofinancier révèle qu’en dépit de la persistance d’un certain nombre de rigidités, les réformes engagées durant la dernière décennie ont consolidé les prérequis permettant de renforcer l’effectivité des canaux de transmission. Sur le plan empirique, les résultats ont montré que la politique monétaire est en mesure d’influencer l’évolution des principaux agrégats macroéconomiques notamment via les canaux taux d’intérêt et crédit.
    Keywords: Politique monétaire; canaux de transmission; environnement macroéconomique; SVAR; NKM
    JEL: E50 E52
    Date: 2016–07–01
  75. By: Aaron G. Grech (Central Bank of Malta)
    Abstract: This paper presents estimates of the possible impact on the Maltese economy of the reduction in electricity and water tariffs to residential customers that took place on 31 March 2014 and the subsequent lowering of tariffs to commercial customers, which is expected to take place in March 2015. These estimates are calculated using the structural macro-econometric model described in Grech et al (2013).
    JEL: C3 C5 E1 E2
  76. By: Chan, Kam Fong (University of Queensland, Australia); Bowman, Robert G. (University of Auckland, New Zealand); Neely, Christopher J. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
    Abstract: This study provides evidence of common bivariate jumps (i.e., systematic cojumps) between the market index and style-sorted portfolios. Systematic cojumps are prevalent in book-to-market portfolios and hence, their risk cannot easily be diversified away by investing in growth or value stocks. Nonetheless, large-cap firms have less exposure to systematic cojumps than small-cap firms. Probit regression reveals that systematic cojump occurrences are significantly associated with worse-than-expected scheduled macroeconomic announcements, especially those pertaining to the Federal Funds target rate. Tobit regression shows that Federal Funds news surprises are also significantly related to the magnitude of systematic cojumps.
    Keywords: Systematic cojumps; Scheduled macroeconomic announcements; Market component portfolios; Federal Funds rate.
    JEL: C1 E44 G11 G12
    Date: 2017–04–26
  77. By: Fatih Guvenen; Greg Kaplan
    Abstract: We revisit recent empirical evidence about the rise in top income inequality in the United States, drawing attention to four key issues that we believe are critical for an informed discussion about changing inequality since 1980. Our goal is to inform researchers, policy makers, and journalists who are interested in top income inequality.
    JEL: E0 J0
    Date: 2017–04
  78. By: Bullard, James B. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
    Abstract: Speaking in Melbourne at the Australian Centre for Financial Studies, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard discussed the current “regime” of low real GDP growth and low real interest rates on short-term government debt. He said that given that this regime is unlikely to change soon, the federal funds rate target is likely to remain low. He added that the St. Louis Fed is forecasting a relatively flat rate over the next two to three years, which contrasts with the median projections of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). He also said that the FOMC can take a wait-and-see posture regarding possible changes in fiscal and regulatory policies.
    Date: 2017–04–10
  79. By: Edgar Mata Flores
    Abstract: To disclose the impact and features of international macroeconomic shocks between heterogeneous economies linked within networks of commercial and financial exchange. Multi-country DSGE modelling, regional networks, Bayesian estimations, partial information solution, stochastic simulation. Distinctive features of the impacts of macroeconomic, risk and policy shocks on representative variables as output, general and consumer prices, interest rates and employment.
    Keywords: Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain, United States., General equilibrium modeling, Macroeconometric modeling
    Date: 2016–07–04
  80. By: Chulho Jung; Jay E. Ryu
    Abstract: Using structural VAR Model, we show that federal spending in the U.S. after 2008 financial crisis mainly contributed to an increase in the profits of U.S. financial industry through financial derivative assets. It made a limited contribution to the stimulation of the real sector of the economy. Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Model Federal spending in the U.S. after 2008 financial crisis mainly contributed to an increase in the profits of U.S. financial industry through financial derivative assets. It made a limited contribution to the stimulation of the real sector of the economy. Abstract is attached. Full paper will be sent out in a week or two.
    Keywords: the United States, Macroeconometric modeling, Monetary issues
    Date: 2016–07–04
  81. By: Charles Hulten; Leonard Nakamura
    Abstract: We extend the conventional Solow growth accounting model to allow innovation to affect consumer welfare directly. Our model is based on Lancaster’s New Approach to Consumer Theory, in which there is a separate “consumption technology” that transforms the produced goods, measured at production cost, into utility. This technology can shift over time, allowing consumers to make more efficient use of each dollar of income. This is “output-saving” technical change, in contrast to the Solow TFP “resource-saving” technical change. One implication of our model is that living standards can rise at a greater rate than real GDP growth.
    JEL: E01 O3 O4
    Date: 2017–04
  82. By: Loes Verstegen; Lex Meijdam
    Abstract: In this paper, we incorporate a transfer mechanism into a DSGE model with a rich fiscal sector to assess the effectiveness of fiscal transfers for a monetary union, in particular for the Economic and Monetary Union. Using a heterogeneous setup, the model is estimated for the North and the South of Europe using Bayesian methods. The results show that the transfer mechanism is effective in stabilizing the economy of the southern block of countries during the financial crisis, although the total welfare effect for the EMU is negative, though small. Ex ante, a transfer mechanism would be beneficial for both the North and the South in terms of welfare and stabilization purposes.
    Keywords: Economic and Monetary Union of Europe, General equilibrium modeling, Public finance
    Date: 2016–07–04
  83. By: Georgescu, George
    Abstract: The study aims to investigate the causes, external manifestations and impacts of de-risking phenomenon, increasingly rendered visible in the last years on international financial markets, under the circumstances of the post-crisis global economic developments. The paper reveals that this phenomenon is still little discussed and understood by academics and institutional organizations, consequently, being ignored any theoretical foundation or arguments for the possible guidance, between one or other direction, of policies, norms and regulatory practices in order to monitor and address the slippages with adverse effects. In the paper, the stage of actual knowledge of this phenomenon, as concerns the different forms in which comes out, the main causes and factors of influence, the adverse impact observed and possible counteracting measures is presented. The analysis of the extent to which Romania is affected by de-risking, more visible by reducting the number of clients and financial transactions, halving the non-performing loans of the banking system, having also an important social dimension, in the light of the low level of financial inclusion. The paper presents some reference points for decoding this phenomenon, proposing new directions for more in-depth scientific researches, focusing on the identification of specific solutions based on customized analysis, including for Romania’s case, considering the trade-off options, such as stability versus prudentiality in risk taking and risk management, profitability versus social responsibility under uncertainty conditions, banking system interests versus interests of regulatory and supervisory institutions, monetary policies versus government policy and strategies.
    Keywords: de-risking; banking system; corresponding banks; AML/CFT; financial stability; non-performing loans; financial inclusion
    JEL: E44 F24 F38 G01 G15 O16
    Date: 2017–04–09
  84. By: Michalis Nikiforos; Gennaro Zezza
    Abstract: From a macroeconomic point of view, 2016 was an ordinary year in the post–Great Recession period. As in prior years, the conventional forecasts predicted that this would be the year the economy would finally escape from the "new normal" of secular stagnation. But just as in every previous year, the forecasts were confounded by the actual result: lower-than-expected growth--just 1.6 percent. The radical policy changes promoted by the new Trump administration dominated economic conditions in the closing quarter of the year and the first quarter of 2017. Markets have responded with exuberance since the November elections, on the expectation that the proposed policy measures would increase profitability by boosting growth and cutting personal and corporate taxes. However, an evaluation of the US economy’s structural characteristics reveals three key impediments to a robust, sustainable recovery: income inequality, fiscal conservatism, and weak net export demand. The new administration’s often conflicting policy proposals are unlikely to solve any of these fundamental problems--if anything, the situation will worsen. Our latest Strategic Analysis provides two medium-term scenarios for the US economy. The "business as usual" baseline scenario (built on CBO estimates) shows household debt and GDP growth roughly maintaining their moribund postcrisis trends. The second scenario assumes a sharp correction in the stock market beginning in 2017Q3, combined with another round of private sector deleveraging. The results: negative growth and a government deficit of 8.3 percent by 2020--essentially a repeat of the crisis of 2007-9.
    Date: 2017–04
  85. By: Steven Robins
    Keywords: Public Investments and Infrastructure
    JEL: E6 L3 R4
  86. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: Nepal’s economy is rebounding following a slowdown caused by the 2015 earthquakes and trade disruptions at the southern border. The upswing has been supported by the new government’s efforts to revitalize the reform agenda. The key challenge is to put policies in place that will extend the cyclical recovery into a sustained period of high and inclusive growth.
    Date: 2017–03–27
  87. By: Jaremski, Matthew; Mathy, Gabrial
    Abstract: The United States not only used bank checks the most but also clung to their use far longer than other developed nations. However, now in the twilight of the check, we trace the evolution of the checking system in the United States through its major phases from the founding of the nation through the modern period, including the rise of clearinghouses, the growth of the interbank clearing network, the Federal Reserve’s establishment of nation-wide central clearing, and the adoption of standardized magnetic imaging for easy processing of checks. Our empirical analysis examines the determinants of check clearing both at the aggregate and state-level in order to shed light on the nation’s dominant use of checks.
    Keywords: payment system, personal checks, banks, United States
    JEL: E42 G2 N14
    Date: 2017–03
  88. By: Marko Crnogorac; Santiago Lago Peñas
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyse fiscal policy in former Yugoslavian countries over the period 2001–2014. The contribution of the paper is threefold. First, we build a homogenous database to describe the evolution of main fiscal aggregates in each country, using the same analytical structure. Second, we analyse national tax structures to find if common patterns are still present, or if they have evolved in different ways over time. Third, we pool data to analyse and compute the cyclical sensitivity of budget balance, taxes and expenditure to the output gap. Our results show that tax structures are still similar and that economic cycle is very relevant to explain the dynamics of deficit and expenditure, but not revenues.
    Keywords: Fiscal policy, Government deficit, Business cycle, Yugoslavia.
    JEL: H30 H50 H62
    Date: 2017–04
  89. By: Bernabe Lopez-Martin; Julio Leal; Andre Martinez Fritscher
    Abstract: Commodity prices are an important driver of fiscal policy and the business cycle in many developing and emerging market economies. We analyze a dynamic stochastic small-open-economy model of sovereign default, featuring endogenous fiscal policy and stochastic commodity revenues. The model accounts for a positive correlation of commodity revenues with government expenditures and a negative correlation with tax rates. We quantitatively document the extent to which the utilization of different financial hedging instruments by the government contributes to lowering the volatility of different macroeconomic variables and their correlation with commodity revenues. An event analysis illustrates how financial hedging instruments moderate fiscal adjustment in response to significant falls in the price of commodities. We evaluate the conditional and unconditional welfare gains for the representative household, generated by financial derivatives and commodity-indexed bonds.
    Keywords: commodity revenues, hedging, indexed bonds, fiscal policy, sovereign default
    Date: 2017–03
  90. By: Gaël Callonnec (Agence de l’environnement et de la maîtrise de l’énergie); Gissela Landa; Paul Malliet (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Frédéric Reynès (Nederlandse Organisatie voor Toegepast Natuurwetenschappelijk Onderzoek); Aurélien Saussay (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)
    Abstract: ThreeME est un modèle macroéconomique d’équilibre général calculable multisectoriel d’inspiration néo-keynésienne, conçu pour évaluer les impacts macroéconomiques des politiques publiques, notamment énergétiques et environnementales. Cet article propose une analyse des propriétés dynamiques et de long terme du modèle ThreeME. Plusieurs variantes ont été conduites : une modification du prix du pétrole, des cotisations employeurs, de la TVA, des investissements publics ou encore l'introduction d'une taxe carbone. Pour chacune d'entre elles, nous montrons l'impact de la spécification de l'équation de salaire (en comparant les résultats simulés avec une courbe Wage Setting et de Phillips). Nous comparons aussi les résultats de ThreeME avec ceux du modèle MESANGE ainsi que deux versions de ThreeME (version standard et hybride)
    Keywords: modèles néo-keynesiens; modèles macroéconmiques; politique économique
    JEL: C00 E12 E6
    Date: 2016–02
  91. By: Martin S. Feldstein
    Abstract: The problems involved in estimating real output that I discuss in this paper cause the official government statistics to underestimate of the rates of growth of real GDP, real personal income, and productivity. That underestimation is important not just to economists trying to understand where the economy is going but also to the broader public and to the political system. The understatement of real growth reflects the enormous difficulty of dealing with quality change and the even greater difficulty of measuring the value created by the introduction of new goods and services. Despite the vast amount of attention that has been devoted to this subject in the economic literature and by the government agencies, there remains insufficient understanding of just how imperfect the official estimates actually are. It is important for economists to recognize the limits of our knowledge and to adjust public statements and policies to what we can know. This paper is not about the recent slowdown in measured productivity but that subject is discussed briefly.
    JEL: E01
    Date: 2017–03
  92. By: Sofi, Farah Nuramalina
    Abstract: This paper aims to recognize the relationship between profitability and performance of RHB Bank Berhad. RHB bank is one of the local bank in Malaysia and the bank was well known in local country. Therefore, knowing the action taken by the management to increase the profitability and the performance of RHB Bank. The focused of this study is leverage and internal factors that are size by indicate the performance and the profitability measurement of the company, such as ROA, ROE, and etc. Aside from the profitability of the bank, size of the company is also considered to have the relationship with performance. Size and leverage are significant in business due to the direct and indirect relationship to profitability, therefore, this paper is to examine if the management have taken an appropriate decision making to increase their asset that will be reflected to the profitability and growth trend of the company.
    Keywords: Keyword: banks’s performance; leverage; Size
    JEL: A1 E5 G1 G17
    Date: 2017–03–30
  93. By: Chenggang Wang (University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics); Huixia Wang (Hunan University, School of Economics and Trade); Timothy J. Halliday (University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics; University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization)
    Abstract: We estimate the impact of the Great Recession of 2007-2009 on health outcomes in the United States. We show that a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate resulted in a 7.8-8.8 percent increase in reports of poor health. Mental health was also adversely impacted and reports of chronic drinking increased. The bulk of the effects were borne by white Americans and the less educated.
    Keywords: Great Recession, Health Behaviors, Health Outcomes, Inequality
    Date: 2017–04
  94. By: Lorenzo Caliendo; Fernando Parro; Aleh Tsyvinski
    Abstract: We develop a model of the world economy as input-output relationships subject to distortions. We then propose a methodology to solve the identification problem, common to the literature on misallocation in input-output relationships, of separating sectoral TFPs from the sectoral distortions. Using both the input shares and the consumption shares within the CES production and CES consumption structure we derive simple closed-form sufficient statistics for the sectoral distortions and for the sectoral TFPs. We then derive a closed-form solution of the elasticities of each entry in the world input-output matrix to distortions. We compute a total of more than half a million internal distortions and TFPs and document significant heterogeneity of those across countries and sectors. We then calculate the whole matrix of about two million elasticities to distortions and TFPs of the input-output matrix of the world economy. We show that internal (within a given country) distortions significantly affect the structure of the economy of that country and have sizeable cross effects on the input-output matrix of other countries. We then find that the world GDP elasticity to changes in internal distortions is an order of magnitude larger than that of the external distortions.
    JEL: C67 E00 E1 F00 O11
    Date: 2017–04
  95. By: Edwin Arbey Hernández García; Andrés Felipe Oviedo Gómez
    Abstract: El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la demanda de créditos informales en Colombia, que permita una mayor inclusión financiera para los hogares e individuos colombianos. Por lo cual, utilizando modelos de regresión binomial y multinomial e información de la Encuesta Longitudinal Colombiana de la Universidad de los Andes (ELCA), se encontró que los atributos como montos, periodicidad de pagos y plazo juegan un papel fundamental, de manera que entre menores sean dichas características, mayor es la probabilidad de acceder al crédito informal. Por otra parte los activos como respaldo de una deuda informal, no juegan un papel significativo, ya que la confianza es fundamental en la relación del prestamista y del prestatario.
    Keywords: Crédito informal; Logit binomial y multinomial; inclusión financiera
    JEL: D14 E26 G20
    Date: 2016–12–28
  96. By: Durmus Ozdemir; Mustafa Kemal Gündoğdu
    Abstract: This paper examines the Marshall–Lerner condition under the simultaneity of exports and import flows in the Turkish economy. Due to the high interdependence between ratios of export and import flows to GDP, the traditional version of the Marshall–Lerner condition is not sustained. In the case of Turkey, the long-term estimations of the price elasticities of exports and imports, and the respective cross elasticities, lead us to conclude that currency devaluation would, in the long run, improve the balance of trade. Macroeconometric modeling Currency devaluation improve the the balance of trade in Turkish economy
    Keywords: Turkey, Macroeconometric modeling, Growth
    Date: 2016–07–04
  97. By: Niall McInerney
    Abstract: The boom and bust that the Irish economy has endured in recent years is the prototypical example of how distortions in the banking sector amplify distortions in the real economy with calamitous effect. This paper shows how macroprudential policy can be used to dampen the interactions and spillovers between both sector We estimate a structural model of the Irish banking sector that incorporates a role for macroprudential policy. Specifically, we estimate supply and demand equations for different types of credit and show how macroprudential instruments can be used to target both credit demand and credit supply. We find evidence that variations in non-interest rate related credit conditions have a significant effect on credit demand in the Irish case. Our results show that macroprudential instruments that target the demand for credit such as loan-to-income (LTI) and loan-to-value (LTV) limits would have significantly dampened the growth in house prices in the Irish Case.
    Keywords: Ireland, Macroeconometric modeling, Monetary issues
    Date: 2016–07–04
  98. By: Uebele, Martin
    Abstract: Die internationale Wachstumsdebatte befindet sich immer noch unter dem Einfluss der Finanzkrise, weil sich in den Industriestaaten die Wachstumsraten nicht wie erwartet wieder erholt haben. Die verschiedenen Erklärungsansätze lassen sich in Angebots- und Nachfrageansätze unterscheiden. Die Vertreter der Nachfrageseite fordern ein radikales Umdenken makroökonomischer Politik, insbesondere eine Abkehr von dem Bestreben, die öffentlichen Haushalte mittelfristig tragfähig zu gestalten. Sie beziehen ihre Motivation vor allem aus dem extrapolierten Wachstumstrend vor dem Einsetzen der Finanzkrise. Dieser Text unterzieht diese Hauptmotivation der nachfrageseitigen Ansätze einer kritischen Würdigung, indem er die Extrapolation eines kurzfristigen Trends mit alternativen Trendkonzepten kontrastiert. Er relativiert deren theoretische und empirische Relevanz dahingehend, dass Forderungen nach radikalen Änderungen der vorherrschenden wirtschaftspolitischen Überzeugungen als nicht ausreichend begründet erscheinen. Stattdessen wird auf die Gefahren von langfristigen Verzerrungen hingewiesen, wenn Wirtschaftspolitik eingesetzt wird, um mit staatlicher Nachfrage, erhöhter expansiver Geldpolitik oder fehlerhafter Deregulierung das Wachstum zu erhöhen. Dabei werden auch historische Parallelen zu den Großen Depressionen nach 1873 und 1929 gezogen.
    JEL: E60 G01 N10
    Date: 2016
  99. By: Kolev, Galina V.
    Abstract: Die aktuelle Lage der russischen Wirtschaft ist dramatisch. Um 3,7 Prozent ist die gesamtwirtschaftliche Leistung im Jahr 2015 eingebrochen. Eine Reihe von Faktoren haben zu der Abwärtsspirale beigetragen: darunter die Unsicherheit in Bezug auf die geopolitische Lage, die verhängten Wirtschaftssanktionen sowie der Ölpreisverfall und der damit verbundene Einbruch bei den Einnahmen aus dem Ölgeschäft. Auch wenn die aktuelle Zuspitzung der Wirtschaftskrise in Russland durch diese Faktoren akut beeinflusst wurde, wird die russische Wirtschaft durch eine Vielzahl schwerwiegender Struktur- und Governanceprobleme charakterisiert, die eine große Herausforderung für die wirtschaftliche Erholung und die langfristige Entwicklung Russlands darstellen. Die starke Abhängigkeit von dem Öl- und Gasgeschäft, Korruptionsprobleme, Rückschritte bei der Privatisierung und eine ineffiziente Nutzung des vorhandenen Humankapitals stellen einige Beispiele für Ansatzpunkte dar, die mehr Entschlossenheit vonseiten der Regierung erfordern. Die hohen Einnahmen aus dem Öl- und Gasgeschäft haben die Anreize geschmälert, ernsthafte Reformen in Gang zu setzen, und verhindert, dass die starke Abhängigkeit der russischen Wirtschaft von der Weltkonjunktur und dem Ölpreis verringert wurde. Die künftigen Wachstumsperspektiven des Landes hängen entscheidend von dem Reformwillen der russischen Regierung ab. Für 2016 prognostiziert der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) einen Rückgang der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Leistung von 0,6 Prozent. Auch wenn der IWF für die darauf folgenden Jahre bereits von positiven Wachstumsraten ausgeht, dürfte das Wirtschaftswachstum mit 1,0 bis1,5 Prozent im mittelfristigen Vergleich sehr gering ausfallen. Damit das Land zurück auf den Wachstumspfad der Vorkrisenzeit kommen kann, müssen weitere Maßnahmen zur Behebung der strukturellen Schwächen der russischen Wirtschaft in Gang gesetzt werden. Dazu gehören mehr Entschlossenheit bei der Bekämpfung der Korruption, die weitere Liberalisierung der Märkte, Privatisierung sowie eine veränderte Anreizstruktur, um Forschung und Entwicklung im Privatsektor zu fördern. Die Wirtschaftspolitik soll die Transformation von einer ressourcenbasierten zu einer innovativen Ökonomie fördern und die entsprechenden Anreize für die Transformation gezielt setzen.
    JEL: E66 O43 O52
    Date: 2016
  100. By: Brian Micallef (Central Bank of Malta)
    Abstract: This paper documents two approaches that are used to estimate a credit gap, defined as the difference between actual developments in credit to non-financial corporations (NFCs) in Malta and a hypothetical path that would have been realised had the past historical relationships over the period 1995-2011 were to be maintained over the period 2012-2014. Both methods suggest that a credit gap emerged in 2012, which widened significantly in 2013 and 2014. As at 2014Q3, the credit gap is estimated between €680 and €830 million. In addition, the two approaches indicate that the credit gap will widen further over 2015-2016.
    JEL: E51 C5 G00
  101. By: gamar, mohd nur arif
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to examine the overall performance of Amtel Holding Berhad in the electronic sector. This study will investigate the relationship between company profitability and some specific risk factors and macroeconomic factor. The data was collected from the annual report of Amtel Holdings Berhad. Starting from 2011 until 2015. The measurement of liquidity ratio and operating ratio used to see the overall performance of Amtel Holdings Berhad. For the 5 years liquidity ratio still beyond the benchmark, however the operating ratio shows the higher percentage and across the benchmark, indicates that the company is not efficient in managing their operating expenses. The additional measurement is size of asset. This variable is not significant with the liquidity risk. To see the relationship of risks factors to the profitability, this paper is utilizing liquidity (current ratio), GDP and operating ratio. Data was analysed by utilizing regression and bivariate correlation. The regression analysis and bivariate correlation shows only one factor of profitability is significant to operating ratio which is ROA with the highest impact to the profitability. However, the liquidity and GDP is not significant to profitability with low impact to the profitability
    Keywords: Profitability, operating ratio, macroeconomic, Liquidity ratio
    JEL: A10 A12 E0 G0 G3 H0 H00
    Date: 2017–04–10
  102. By: J. Liu; C.J.M. Kool
    Abstract: In this paper, we employ panel co-integration techniques to identify and estimate homogeneous long-run equilibrium relations for money and credit for 10 euro area countries. Over the period 1999-2013, we do find evidence of such long-run relations when accounting for a structural break in 2008. While money and credit follow similar long run trends, the short and medium term relation between money and credit overhang is weak, throwing doubt on the hypothesis that money creating potential drives credit booms. Especially in current account deficit countries, we observe a sizable build-up of credit overhang prior to 2008. Positive (negative) credit overhang is strongly related to net foreign borrowing (lending).
    Keywords: macro-economic imbalances, net foreign credit, Panel co-integration
    Date: 2017–02
  103. By: Kene Boun My (BETA - University of Strasbourg, 61 avenue de la Forˆet Noire - 67085 Strasbourg Cedex); Camille Cornand (Univ Lyon, CNRS, GATE L-SE UMR 5824, F-69130 Ecully, France); Rodolphe Dos Santos Ferreira (BETA-Strasbourg University, 61 avenue de la Forêt Noire - 67085 Strasbourg Cedex, France; Catolica Lisbon School of Business and Economics)
    Abstract: In Keynes’ beauty contest, agents make evaluations reflecting both an expected fundamental value and the conventional value expected to be set by the market. They thus respond to fundamental and coordination motives, respectively, the prevalence of either being set exogenously. Our contribution is twofold. First, we propose a valuation game in which agents strategically choose how to weight each motive. This game emphasises public information leads agents to favour the coordination motive. Second, we test the game through a laboratory experiment. Subjects tend to conform to theoretical predictions, except when fundamental uncertainty is low relative to strategic uncertainty.
    Keywords: dispersed information, public information, beauty contest, coordination, experiment
    JEL: D84 C92 E12
    Date: 2017
  104. By: sutejo, siti khomariah
    Abstract: The study analyzes the performance about Elsoft Research Berhad as a company that develop the test and burn-in system and application specific embedded system. It include the observation of Elsoft Research Berhad business activities over the period between 2011 and 2015. The finding shows that the Elsoft company have their own characteristic to control the performance of company among the other competitor company. In year 2011, Elsoft actually face the economic crisis when the other country facing the flooding and also economic crisis such as in Europe.
    Keywords: Economy crisis and performance
    JEL: E02 H00
    Date: 2017–04–10
  105. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands: Selected Issues
    Date: 2017–04–03
  106. By: Cozzi, Guido; Davenport, Margaret
    Abstract: How long shall a country take to learn the world technological frontier? What would happen if that country found the same difficulties in learning the true model of its economy? After all, countries catching up often experience life-changing transformations during the catch-up to a balanced growth path. We show that an open economy, learning rational expectations alongside foreign technology, may be characterized by excessive saving and current account surpluses, as often observed in the data and at odds with the standard open economy theoretical predictions, and not fully explained by standard adaptations such as habit formation. Moreover, such a learning process in a large developing country can upset the savings behavior of a fully rational expectations advanced country. In a US-China calibration, we show that this effect can be so strong as to explain important current account imbalances, the savings glut hypothesis, as well as the distribution of factor income.
    Keywords: capital flows, extrapolative expectations, global imbalances, technological convergence
    JEL: E03 F21 F41
    Date: 2017–01

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