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on Macroeconomics |
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Issue of 2014‒08‒28
131 papers chosen by Soumitra K Mallick Indian Institute of Social Welfare and Business Management |
| By: | Laban K. Chesang (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Ruthira Naraidoo (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits the Lucas’ (1973) signal extraction model to study the effect of uncertainty in the output-inflation trade-off on inflation, using a monetary model with asymmetric central bank preferences over inflation and output. We show that the implication of the uncertainty is two-fold: firstly, it causes the interaction of output and volatility of monetary policy to influence inflation movements so that, higher volatility in monetary policy causes inflation to rise. Secondly, as suggested in an optimal rule, it causes output to contract by less whenever inflation increases above the target, and to expand by less whenever inflation is below the target. We also find that the Reserve Bank’s asymmetric aversion to inflation stabilization explains inflation movements significantly, and that the monetary authority seems to penalize more for inflationary rather than deflationary pressures. Overall, the Bank’s deflationary bias would allow for a relatively flat output-inflation trade-off, which could be helpful for economic stability. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, Asymmetric preferences, Inflation, Uncertainty |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 E61 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201437&r=mac |
| By: | Nakata, Taisuke (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)) |
| Abstract: | Can the central bank credibly commit to keeping the nominal interest rate low for an extended period of time in the aftermath of a deep recession? By analyzing credible plans in a sticky-price economy with occasionally binding zero lower bound constraints, I find that the answer is yes if contractionary shocks hit the economy with sufficient frequency. In the best credible plan, if the central bank reneges on the promise of low policy rates, it will lose reputation and the private sector will not believe such promises in future recessions. When the shock hits the economy sufficiently frequently, the incentive to maintain reputation outweighs the short-run incentive to close consumption and inflation gaps, keeping the central bank on the originally announced path of low nominal interest rates. |
| Keywords: | Credible policy; forward guidance; reputation; sustainable plan; time consistency; trigger strategy; zero lower bound |
| JEL: | E32 E52 E61 E62 E63 |
| Date: | 2014–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2014-50&r=mac |
| By: | Carlo Altavilla; Domenico Giannone; Michèle Modugno |
| Keywords: | macroeconomic announcement; news; treasury bond yield |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E47 G14 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/174573&r=mac |
| By: | Stefano Gnocchi; Daniela Hauser; Evi Pappa |
| Abstract: | We build an otherwise-standard business cycle model with housework, calibrated consistently with data on time use, in order to discipline consumption-hours complementarity and relate its strength to the size of fiscal multipliers. We show that if substitutability between home and market goods is calibrated on the empirically relevant range, consumption-hours complementarity is large and the model generates fiscal multipliers that agree with the evidence. Hence, our analysis supports the relevance of consumption-hours complementarity for fiscal multipliers. However, we also find that explicitly modeling the home sector is more appealing than restricting to the consumption-leisure margin and/or to the preferences proposed by Greenwood, Hercowitz and Huffman (1988). A housework model can imply substantial complementarity, without low wealth effects contradicting the microeconomic evidence. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy; Business fluctuations and cycles |
| JEL: | E24 E32 E52 E62 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:14-34&r=mac |
| By: | Mauricio Villamizar |
| Abstract: | Many central banks, particularly in the developing world, aim for exchange rate stability as a macroeconomic goal. However, most are reluctant to relinquish monetary policy autonomy, so they end up operating through both interest rate and foreign exchange interventions. But the use of multiple policy instruments does not necessarily equip monetary authorities with better tools to achieve their targets. On the contrary, their effects can potentially offset each other. Using daily data from the Central Bank of Colombia during the period of 1999-2012, I study the effects of simultaneous policies by first deriving new measures of monetary shocks and then determining their impact on economic activity. The main findings indicate that (i) while interest rate interventions have a significant impact on real and nominal variables, foreign exchange interventions tend to have limited effects; and (ii) empirical anomalies, such as the price puzzle, are eliminated when properly accounting for the systematic responses of policy. |
| Keywords: | Central bank intervention, simultaneous policies, monetary shocks, price puzzle, monetary policy trilemma, foreign exchange intervention. |
| JEL: | E31 E43 E52 E58 F31 |
| Date: | 2014–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000094:012010&r=mac |
| By: | Siemer, Michael (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)) |
| Abstract: | The 2007-2009 recession is characterized by: a large drop in employment, an unprecedented decline in firm entry, and a slow recovery. Using confidential firm-level data, I show that financial constraints reduced employment growth in small relative to large firms by 4.8 to 10.5 percentage points. The effect of financial constraints is robust to controlling for aggregate demand and is particularly strong in small young firms. I show in a heterogeneous firms model with endogenous firm entry and financial constraints that a large financial shock results in a long-lasting recession caused by a "missing generation" of entrants. |
| Keywords: | Employment; firm entry; financial crisis; small business; financial friction; slow recovery; start-ups |
| JEL: | E24 E32 E44 G01 J20 L25 |
| Date: | 2014–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2014-56&r=mac |
| By: | Hans Geeroms (Professor at KULeuven and College of Europe, Research Associate at CES); Pawel Karbownik (Deputy Director at the EU Economic Department of the Polish MFA) |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that a monetary union requires a banking union. While the USA developed both during a time span of two centuries, the EMU was created in the course of two decades and remains unfinished as the economic pillar is largely missing. The financial crisis and the Eurocrisis have shown that a genuine banking union is even more needed for the Eurozone than a budget or a fiscal union to let the euro survive. |
| Keywords: | banking Union, ECB, EMU, monetary policy, eurozone |
| JEL: | E10 E42 E44 E52 E58 E61 E63 |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:coe:wpbeep:33&r=mac |
| By: | Alex Haberis (Bank of England); Richard Harrison (Bank of England; Author-Workplace-Name: Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM)); Matt Waldron (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we show that the macroeconomic effects of a transient interestrate peg can be significantly dampened when the peg is perceived to be imperfectly credible by the private sector. By doing so, we provide a solution to what has become known as the "forward guidance puzzle". This is the finding that pegging nominal interest rates to a specific value or path for an extended, yet finite, period of time in New Keynesian models generates macroeconomic responses that are implausibly large. This puzzle has been of interest because several central banks have implemented "forward guidance" which has been interpreted by some as a promise to hold the policy rate lower than had been previously expected: a so-called lower-for-longer (LFL) policy. The New Keynesian models that these central banks routinely use for policy analysis would predict that LFL policies generate very large effects. The possibility that LFL policies might be imperfectly credible arises from their potential to be time inconsistent . Indeed, using an ad-hoc loss function for the central bank we show that it may have an incentive to renounce the LFL policy along the full commitment path. We examine cases in which the degree of imperfect credibility is exogenous and in which it is endogenously related to the state of the economy via the policymaker's incentive to renounce. Allowing for endogenous imperfect credibility tends to dampen the response of macroeconomic variables to an LFL policy announcement by more than under exogenous imperfect credibility. |
| Keywords: | New Keynesian model, monetary policy, zero lower bound |
| JEL: | E12 E17 E20 E30 E42 E52 |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1422&r=mac |
| By: | Coroneo, Laura (University of York); Giannone, Domenico (LUISS University of Rome); Modugno, Michele (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we extract common factors from a cross-section of U.S. macro-variables and Treasury zero-coupon yields. We find that two macroeconomic factors have an important predictive content for government bond yields and excess returns. These factors are not spanned by the cross-section of yields and are well proxied by economic growth and real interest rates. |
| Keywords: | Yield curve; government bonds; factor models; forecasting |
| JEL: | C33 C53 E43 E44 G12 |
| Date: | 2014–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2014-57&r=mac |
| By: | Martha López |
| Abstract: | In this paper we expanded the closed economy model by Bernanke and Gertler (1999) in order to account for the macroeconomic effects of an asset price bubble in the context of a small open economy model. During the nineties emerging market economies opened their financial accounts to foreign investment but it generated growing macroeconomic imbalances in these economies. Our goal in this paper is twofold: first we want to analyze if the conclusions of Bernanke and Gertler (1999) remain in the case of a small open economy. And second, we want to compare the results in terms of macroeconomic volatility of the model for a closed economy versus the model for a small open economy. Our results show that the conclusion about the fact that the Central Bank should not react to asset prices remains as in the case of a closed economy model, and that small open economies are more vulnerable to asset prices bubbles due to capital inflows and the exchange rate mechanism of the monetary policy. Therefore in small open economies the business cycle is deeper. Finally, in the face of a boom followed by a bust in an asset price bubble, macroeconomic volatility would be dampened if the monetary authority focus only on inflation. Classification JEL: E32, R40, E47, E52. |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:837&r=mac |
| By: | Mauricio Villamizar |
| Abstract: | Many central banks, particularly in the developing world, aim for exchange rate stability as a macroeconomic goal. However, most are reluctant to relinquish monetary policy autonomy, so they end up operating through both interest rate and foreign exchange interventions. But the use of multiple policy instruments does not necessarily equip monetary authorities with better tools to achieve their targets. On the contrary, their effects can potentially offset each other. Using daily data from the Central Bank of Colombia during the period of 1999-2012, I study the effects of simultaneous policies by first deriving new measures of monetary shocks and then determining their impact on economic activity. The main findings indicate that (i) while interest rate interventions have a significant impact on real and nominal variables, foreign exchange interventions tend to have limited effects; and (ii) empirical anomalies, such as the price puzzle, are eliminated when properly accounting for the systematic responses of policy. Classification JEL: E31, E43, E52, E58, F31. |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:835&r=mac |
| By: | Jianjun Miao; Pengfei Wang; Tao Zha |
| Abstract: | In the U.S. economy over the past twenty five years, house prices exhibit fluctuations considerably larger than house rents and these large fluctuations tend to move together with business cycles. We build a simple theoretical model to characterize these observations by showing the tight connection between price-rent fluctuation and the liquidity constraint faced by productive firms. After developing economic intuition for this result, we estimate a medium-scale dynamic general equilibrium model to assess the empirical importance of the role the price-rent fluctuation plays in the business cycle. According to our estimation, a shock that drives most of the price-rent fluctuation explains $30% of output fluctuation over a six-year horizon. |
| JEL: | E22 E32 E44 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20377&r=mac |
| By: | Federico Etro (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Lorenza Rossi (Department of Economics, University Of Pavia) |
| Abstract: | We reconsider the New Keynesian model with staggered price setting when each market is characterized by a small number of firms competing in prices à la Bertrand rather than a continuum of isolated monopolists. Price adjusters change their prices less when there are more firms that do not adjust, creating a natural and strong form of real rigidity. In a DSGE model with Calvo pricing this reduces the level of nominal rigidities needed to generate high reactions of output to monetary shocks. As a consequence, the determinacy region enlarges and the optimal monetary rule under cost push shocks, derived with the linear quadratic approach, becomes less aggressive, and the welfare gains from commitment to the optimal monetary policy decrease. |
| Keywords: | New Keynesian Phillips Curve, Real rigidities, Sticky prices, Optimal monetary policy, Inflation, Endogenous entry |
| JEL: | E3 E4 E5 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2014:10&r=mac |
| By: | Halit Aktürk (Meliksah University, Department of Economics, Kayseri, Turkey); Diana N. Weymark (Vanderbilt University, Department of Economics, Nashville, TN, USA) |
| Abstract: | This study provides a detailed quantitative analysis of a transition to inflation targeting with a focus on the role of expectations. We investigate the impact of the Turkish central bank’s inflation reduction programs on inflation in Turkey from 1996 to 2005. Over this period there was a transition from non-targeting to semi-formal targeting, and then, finally, to full-fledged inflation targeting. In order to analyze the effectiveness of Turkish monetary policy quantitatively, a structural model of the Turkish economy that allows for structural breaks is estimated under the alternative assumptions of rational expectations and adaptive learning. Using these estimates, counterfactual experiments are conducted to obtain ex ante and ex post inflation pressure measures which characterize, respectively, the pre-policy and post-policy inflationary environment. To evaluate the impact of the central bank’s disinflation program on its credibility, we introduce an index of monetary policy credibility that is new to the literature. The inflation pressure indices indicate that there was no significant difference between the inflationary environments in the 2002-2005 periods as compared to the 1996-2001 periods. However, the monetary policy effectiveness index shows that the semi-formal inflation targeting program that was implemented from 2002-2005 was considerably more successful in reducing inflation than the policies in the previous period had been. Surprisingly, the index of monetary policy credibility suggests that the improvement in inflation control was not accompanied by a significant improvement in the central bank’s credibility. |
| Keywords: | inflation pressure, transition, counterfactual, monetary policy |
| JEL: | E50 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:246&r=mac |
| By: | Orphanides, Athanasios |
| Abstract: | Following the experience of the global financial crisis, central banks have been asked to undertake unprecedented responsibilities. Governments and the public appear to have high expectations that monetary policy can provide solutions to problems that do not necessarily fit in the realm of traditional monetary policy. This paper examines three broad public policy goals that may overburden monetary policy: full employment; fiscal sustainability; and financial stability. While central banks have a crucial position in public policy, the appropriate policy mix also involves other institutions, and overreliance on monetary policy to achieve these goals is bound to disappoint. Central Bank policies that facilitate postponement of needed policy actions by governments may also have longer-term adverse consequences that could outweigh more immediate benefits. Overburdening monetary policy may eventually diminish and compromise the independence and credibility of the central bank, thereby reducing its effectiveness to preserve price stability and contribute to crisis management. -- |
| Keywords: | Global financial crisis,monetary policy real-time output gap,fiscal dominance,financial stability,central bank independence |
| JEL: | E50 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:imfswp:75&r=mac |
| By: | Altavilla, Carlo (European Central Bank); Giannone, Domenico (LUISS University of Rome); Modugno, Michele (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the reaction of the U.S. Treasury bond market to innovations in macroeconomic fundamentals. We identify these innovations with macroeconomic news, defined as differences between the actual releases and their market expectations. We show that macroeconomic news explain about one-third of the low frequency (quarterly) fluctuations of long-term bond yields. When focusing on the high frequency (daily) movements this share decreases to one-tenth. This result is due to the fact that macro news have a persistent effect on the yield curve. Non-fundamental factors, instead, substantially influence the day-to-day movements of bond yields but their effects are shorter-living and mean-reverting. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomic announcements; treasury bond yields |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E47 G14 |
| Date: | 2014–06–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2014-52&r=mac |
| By: | Job Boerma |
| Abstract: | I build a small open economy version of the Calvo-type staggered price-setting model with limited asset market participation, and I show that the inverted aggregate demand logic is less likely to apply to small open economies. The equilibrium dynamics of the model are reduced to a representation in the output gap and domestic inflation, and depend on the degree of asset market participation in a non-linear way. If asset market participation decreases above a certain threshold, the relationship between the real interest rate and aggregate output strengthens. Below this threshold, the link between the real interest rate and aggregate demand inverts: aggregate domestic output contracts in response to a decrease in the real interest rate. Policy rules have to satisfy an inverted Taylor Principle to ensure a unique equilibrium in this type of economy. When an economy is open, the 'standard' Taylor Principle is strictly more likely to apply. The Taylor Principle is restored regardless of the level of asset market participation when the redistributive dividend tax rate, or the share of domestic firms under foreign ownership, exceeds a certain threshold. |
| Keywords: | Taylor principle; openness; indeterminacy; limited asset market participation |
| JEL: | E44 E52 F41 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:436&r=mac |
| By: | Ferdi Botha & Gavin Keeton |
| Abstract: | In 2002/03 the yield spread falsely signalled a downswing that never materialised. This paper provides two reasons for this false signal. Firstly, while the Reserve Bank never actually officially declared the start of a downswing, by other important measures a downswing did actually occur. It is to this slowing in economic activity at that time that the yield curve pointed. Secondly, short-term interest rates in 2003 were higher than they should have been because of a mistake made in measuring consumer price inflation. Because South Africa had recently introduced an inflation targeting regime, policy interest rates were as a result of this error kept too high for too long. This policy mistake was rectified as soon as the error in the Consumer Price Index was discovered. Thus, the yield curve in 2002/03 pointed to the reality that short-term interest rates were too high and risked pushing the economy into recession. This is demonstrated by the fact that it was a fall in long bond interest rates that cause the yield spread to turn negative, indicating expectations that short-term interest rates would need to be cut – as indeed they were. |
| Keywords: | Yield spread, forecasting, economic downswings, interest rates, South Africa |
| JEL: | E32 E37 E43 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:449&r=mac |
| By: | Bucher, Monika; Hauck, Achim; Neyer, Ulrike |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that depending on the distribution of banks' uncertain liquidity needs and on how monetary policy is implemented, frictions in the interbank market may reinforce the effectiveness of monetary policy. These frictions imply that with its lending and deposit facilities the central bank has an additional effective instrument at hand to impose an impact on bank loan supply. While lowering the rate on the lending facility has, taken for itself, an expansionary effect, lowering the rate on the deposit facility has a contractionary effect. This result has interesting implications for monetary policy implementation at the zero lower bound. -- |
| Keywords: | interbank market,monetary policy,monetary policy implementation,zero lower bound,loan supply |
| JEL: | E52 E58 G21 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:134r&r=mac |
| By: | Kevin D. Hoover |
| Abstract: | Samuelson and Solow in their 1960 paper in the American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings were among the first economists to engage with Phillips’ famous unemployment/wage-inflation analysis, now referred to as the Phillips curve. They addressed the question of the relevance of Phillips’s analysis for the United Kingdom to the United States, and in process formulated the firstunemployment/price-inflation version of the Phillips curve and were the first to interpret the Phillips curve as a menu for policy. Their paper was an informal analysis presented at a conference. The current paper offers a careful reconstruction and assessment of their original formulation, documenting the close relationship between the wage-inflation and price-inflation versions of the Phillips curve. A recent paper of Hall and Hart (2012) that suggests, first, that Samuelson and Solow should have reached different conclusions about the price-Phillips curve on the basis of regression estimates of their own data and, second, that had they done so the “inflationist” course of U.S. macroeconomic policy in the 1960s and 1970s would have been different. With the reconstruction as a background, the current paper demonstrates that Hall and Hart have not grasped the key details of Samuelson and Solow’s analysis, and that they ignore the actual context of the paper, so that neither of their suggestions is likely: Samuelson and Solow would have no reason to reach any different conclusion based on Hall and Hart’s estimates, and the course of macroeconomic policy is unlikely to have been affected in any case. |
| Keywords: | Phillips curve, Paul A. Samuelson, Robert M. Solow, inflation, unemployment, macroeconomic policy |
| JEL: | B22 B23 B31 E31 E61 E63 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hec:heccee:2014-10&r=mac |
| By: | Jan-Egbert Sturm (KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Fabian Gunzinger (Swiss National Bank, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | Relying on a large sample of countries, this paper quantifies the effect of political constraints, as measured by legislative control by the incumbent government, on the size of fiscal stimulus packages that have been put in place as reaction to the Great Recession. The results suggest that on average, political constraints reduced the size of a country's fiscal stimulus packages by between 1.2 and 2.8 percentage points of GDP (depending on the stimulus measure used). This substantial effect is significant and robust to a number of alternative dependent variables and specifications. The results are thus in line with the widely held, but never tested, perception that political reality limits the de facto application of discretionary fiscal policy as reaction to negative economic shocks. |
| Keywords: | legislative control, fiscal stimulus, Great Recession |
| JEL: | E02 E32 E62 E65 H12 P48 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kof:wpskof:14-365&r=mac |
| By: | Jonung, Lars (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This paper derives a set of policy lessons for Portugal from the new fiscal framework including a fiscal policy council that gradually emerged in Sweden after the deep economic crisis of the early 1990s. By now, Swedish public finances stand out among the strongest in Europe. Recent Swedish macroeconomic performance has been impressive. As Sweden and Portugal are small open economies in the periphery of Europe, Sweden may serve as a fiscal model for Portugal. Policy lessons are distilled from the Swedish experience for Portugal, stressing the importance of the economic policy culture for macroeconomic outcomes and for trust in government institutions and policies. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal rules; fiscal policy council; fiscal policy; public debt; Sweden; Portugal. |
| JEL: | E52 E62 E63 E65 F44 H62 O52 |
| Date: | 2014–08–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2014_027&r=mac |
| By: | Carrasco, Bruno (Asian Development Bank); Mukhopadhyay, Hiranya (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews some of the more critical policy dilemmas facing the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its pursuit of inflation stabilization and balanced growth objectives. The challenge in meeting these objectives further increased in the mid-2000s with the advent of large capital flows into the country and with RBI’s role in preserving financial stability. The paper argues, drawing on several empirical results including Taylor rule estimation and nonparametric regression, that there is no simple policy solution to apply in different states of the market and reviews policy decisions undertaken by RBI against the backdrop of a disequilibrium framework where credit markets may be demand or supply constrained. Superimposing two capital flow regimes into this framework leads to identification of episodes where a hawkish (anti-inflationary) stance can give way to a dovish(pro-growth) stance. |
| Keywords: | India; monetary policy dilemmas; central bank; RBI policies; price stability; financial stability; Taylor rule; credit market disequilibrium |
| JEL: | E50 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2014–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0393&r=mac |
| By: | Robert G. Murphy (Boston College); Adam Rohde (Charles River Associates) |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that individuals may rationally weight price increases for food and energy products differently from their expenditure shares when forming expectations about price inflation. If food and energy price inflation exhibits a sufficient degree of persistence and wage adjustment is not too sluggish, we show that it is rational to put more weight on inflation in these sectors than their expenditure shares in the Consumer Price Index would warrant. We develop a simple dynamic model of the economy in which individuals are partly backward looking and use the model to illustrate this finding. We then test the prediction of the model using data on expected inflation from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters. Our results show that the weights implied by the model for constructing expectations of inflation differ from the expenditure weights of food and energy prices in the Consumer Price Index. In particular, we find that food price inflation is weighted more heavily and energy price inflation is weighted less heavily. But importantly, we cannot reject the hypothesis that these weights reflect rational behavior in forming expectations about inflation. Our analysis validates concerns sometimes raised by policymakers as to whether expectations might not be well anchored with respect to commodity price shocks. As a consequence, policy may need to be calibrated carefully to prevent such shocks from becoming embedded in expected inflation. |
| Keywords: | Inflation Expectations, Core Inflation, Food and Energy Prices, Anchored Expectations |
| JEL: | E30 E31 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2014–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:857&r=mac |
| By: | Schock, Matthias |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the predictive power of the yield spread for GDP growth and recessions in the Eurozone from the 1990s to the recent past. An OLS and probit framework are used. Credit Default Swap (CDS) data on sovereign bonds as a new risk-adjustment method and a direct measure of default risk improve the quality of prediction significantly. Results show that the quality of growth and recession prediction with the commonly used yield spread remains high, as long as Eurozone sovereign default risk biases are considered. |
| Keywords: | yield curve, CDS spreads, economic activity |
| JEL: | E37 E43 E44 G1 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-532&r=mac |
| By: | Volker Hahn (Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Focusing on linear-quadratic models with rational expectations, this paper extends the concept of discretionary equilibrium by allowing for linear non- Markovian strategies of the policy-maker and the other agents in the economy. Applying this concept to the standard New Keynesian framework, we show that a multitude of equilibria arise. Some equilibria have favorable consequences for welfare, resulting in outcomes superior even to those achieved under timelessperspective commitment. Compared to traditional approaches to modeling credibility through trigger strategies, our approach has the desirable implication that small mistakes of the policy-maker have only small consequences for his reputation. Finally, we show that our equilibrium concept can provide an alternative explanation for the high degree of inflation persistence found in the data. |
| Keywords: | New Keynesian model, multiple equilibria, discretionary equilibrium, inflation persistence, reputation. |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 C61 |
| Date: | 2014–08–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:knz:dpteco:1414&r=mac |
| By: | Alexandros Kontonikas; Charles Nolan; Zivile Zekaite |
| Abstract: | Some studies argue that the Fed reacts to financial market developments. Using data covering the period 1985:Q1 - 2008:Q4 and employing an augmented Taylor rule specification, we re-examine that conjecture. We find that evidence in favour of such a reaction is largely driven by the Fed’s behaviour during the 2007-2008 financial crisis. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy; Taylor Rule; Financial Crisis |
| JEL: | E52 E58 G01 |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gla:glaewp:2014_08&r=mac |
| By: | Congressional Budget Office |
| Abstract: | Although federal deficits have shrunk markedly in recent years, growing spending for Social Security and major health care programs, along with increasing interest costs, would cause them to rise steadily over the long term. The larger deficits would cause federal debt to grow faster than the economy. By 2039, debt would exceed 100 percent of GDP and would be on an upward path, CBO projects—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely. |
| JEL: | E20 E60 E61 E62 E66 H50 H51 H53 H55 H60 H61 H62 H63 H68 |
| Date: | 2014–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:45471&r=mac |
| By: | Yoshino, Naoyuki (Asian Development Bank Institute); Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | “Abenomics” refers to the economic policies advocated by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who became prime minister of Japan for a second time when his party, the Liberal Democratic Party, won an overwhelming majority at the general election in December 2012. Abenomics has “three arrows”: (i) aggressive monetary policy, (ii) fiscal consolidation, and (iii) growth strategy. The Japanese economy faces an aging population and expanding social welfare expenses. No other country has experienced Japan’s rapid growth of retired people. In this paper we will explain these three aspects of Abenomics and the current state of the Japanese economy, and examine what further remedies may be required if Japan is to recover from its long-term deflation. We look at such proposals as hometown investment trust funds and postponing of the retirement age through the introduction of a flexible wage rate system. |
| Keywords: | Abenomics; structural reform; hometown investment funds; monetary policy; fiscal consolidation; growth strategy |
| JEL: | E52 E62 G21 |
| Date: | 2014–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0492&r=mac |
| By: | Aguiar, Mark; Amador, Manuel; Farhi, Emmanuel; Gopinath, Gita |
| Abstract: | We propose a continuous time model to investigate the impact of inflation credibility on sovereign debt dynamics. At every point in time, an impatient government decides fiscal surplus and inflation, without commitment. Inflation is costly, but reduces the real value of outstanding nominal debt. In equilibrium, debt dynamics is the result of two opposing forces: (i) impatience and (ii) the desire to conquer low inflation. A large increase in inflation credibility can trigger a process of debt accumulation. This rationalizes the sovereign debt booms that are often experienced by low inflation credibility countries upon joining a currency union. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hrv:faseco:12559514&r=mac |
| By: | Oğuz Esen (Izmir University of Economics, Department of Economics); Ayla Oğuş Binatlı (Izmir University of Economics, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The recent global financial crisis has underlined the need to go beyond the microprudential perspective to financial instability and move in a macroprudential direction. There is a growing consensus among policymakers and academics that macroprudential policy should be adopted. Through these changes, policymakers appear to be moving in a direction broadly consistent with Minsky’s view.The theoretical framework of macroprudential policy can be found in Minsky’s financial instability theory. Emerging economies, including Turkey, have adopted macroprudential tools to prevent and mitigate system wide risks. This paper offers a Minsky perspective on macroprudential policy and evaluates macroprudential tools through an examination of the Turkish experience as a case study. |
| Keywords: | Macroprudential policy, Minsky, Reserve Requirement |
| JEL: | E58 E60 G01 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:305&r=mac |
| By: | Akçay, Belgin (Department of Economic Policy, Ankara University, Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Finance and financial markets were at the heart of the global economic crisis that began in August 2007. 2010 has seen the transformation of the global financial crisis into a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. Starting from Greece, the debt crisis has put intense pressure on the bonds of other Eurozone countries, most notably Ireland, Portugal and Spain. Thus he Greek problem has become an Eurozone-wide problem. The crisis has hit these countries with large public deficits and debts. It also happens that they have undergone increasingly large current account deficits. Another feature of these countries has been their inflation rates, which have exceeded those in the rest of the Eurozone. All crisis countries have experienced a strong domestic demand shock. This shock, in turn, may have different causes. In Greece and Portugal fiscal policy has been mostly easy during this period along with credit boom. Ireland and Spain have undergone a credit boom and housing price bubble; when the bubble burst, both countries have had to bail banks out. In all these cases, the real exchange rate appreciation and the current deficits appear as consequences of these shocks. |
| Keywords: | Eurozone, GIIPS, sovereign debt crisis |
| JEL: | C45 F32 C45 E52 E61 H63 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:203&r=mac |
| By: | Rosengren, Eric S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | In a speech to the Boston Economic Club, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren called for a "patient approach" to removing the Fed's accommodative monetary policy, given the high numbers of U.S. workers who want full-time work but are currently working part time. He also cited the still-high unemployment rate, and the very low inflation rate. |
| Date: | 2014–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbsp:82&r=mac |
| By: | Konstantinos Angelopoulos; Stylianos Asimakopoulos; James Malley |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether efficiency considerations require that optimal labour income taxation is progressive or regressive in a model with skill heterogeneity, endogenous skill acquisition and a production sector with capital-skill complementarity. We find that wage inequality driven by the resource requirements of skill-creation implies progressive labour income taxation in the steady-state as well as along the transition path from the exogenous to optimal policy steady-state. We find that these results are explained by a lower labour supply elasticity for skilled versus unskilled labour which results from the introduction of the skill acquisition technology. |
| Keywords: | optimal progressive taxation, skill premium, allocative efficiency |
| JEL: | E24 E32 E62 |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gla:glaewp:2014_07&r=mac |
| By: | Keiichiro Kobayashi; Tomoyuki Nakajima (Institute of Economic Research,Kyoto University and CIGS) |
| Abstract: | We develop a macroeconomic model in which liquidity plays an essential role in the production process, because _rms have a commitment problem regarding factor payments. A liquidity crisis occurs when _rms fail to obtain su_cient liquidity, and may be caused either by self-ful_lling beliefs or by fundamental shocks. Our model is consistent with the observation that the decline in output during the Great Recession is mostly attributable to the deterioration in the labor wedge, rather than in productivity. The government's commitment to guarantee bank deposits reduces the possibility of a self-fulfilling crisis, but it increases that of a fundamental crisis. |
| Keywords: | Liquidity crises; Systemic crises; Corporate liquidity demand; Limited commitment; Debt overhang. |
| JEL: | E30 G01 G21 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upd:utppwp:023&r=mac |
| By: | Dzmitry Kruk (Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC)) |
| Abstract: | This study deals with Belarusian macroeconomic dynamics in 2013. The problem of poor growth potential remains important in 2013. Nevertheless, the progress in structural reforms was scarce, as the government was too optimistic in respect to inertia growth mechanisms. Hence, 2013 is likely to be summarized as year when the government attempted to ÔreloadÕ the existing model of the national economy. The outcomes of this attempt can hardly be treated as satisfactory ones. Price competitiveness of domestic produces shrank substantially given active expansion of consumer demand supported by the government. However, other demand components were not stimulated so actively given lowering effectiveness of correspondent economic policy tools. For instance, contradictions in monetary policy objectives and low effectiveness of its tools became rather evident in 2013, which has formed a kind of monetary policy trap. Finally, Belarus in 2013 entered a phase of cyclical recession, which might become a long-lasting one. Moreover, a broad range of distortions has been accumulated during the year, which highlights the vitality of macroeconomic adjustment. |
| Keywords: | Belarus, economic growth, macroeconomic policy, monetary policy, structural reforms |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bel:ppaper:19&r=mac |
| By: | Mehmet Balcilar (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, Northern Cyprus , via Mersin 10, Turkey); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Charl Jooste (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | We test the inertial properties of South African inflation in a Markov-Switching autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average model. This allows us to test for long memory and study the persistence of inflation in multiple regimes. We show that inflation is more volatile and persistent during high inflation episodes relative to low inflation episodes. We estimate that it takes approximately 70 months for 50 percent of the shocks to dissipate in a high inflation regime compared to 10 months in a low inflation regime. |
| Keywords: | Inflation persistence, MS-ARFIMA, inflation regimes |
| JEL: | E31 C20 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201440&r=mac |
| By: | James Bernstein, Leroi Raputsoane and Eric Schaling |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the behaviour of credit extension over the economic cycle to determine its usefulness as a reference guide for implementing the countercyclical capital buffers for financial institutions in South Africa. The study finds that the common reference guide for implementing the countercyclical capital buffers, which is based on the gap between the ratio of aggregate private sector credit to gross domestic product and its long term trend, increases during the economic cycle busts, while such a relationship is broken during the economic cycle booms. The study also finds that this common reference guide decreases during the upturns in the economic cycle, while it increases during the periods of downturns in the economic cycle. Thus credit extension should be used with caution as a common reference guide to determine the level of the countercyclical capital buffers for financial institutions in South Africa. |
| Keywords: | Credit Procyclicality, Financial Regulation |
| JEL: | C32 E32 E61 G21 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:445&r=mac |
| By: | Aytul Ganioglu; Vuslat Us |
| Abstract: | This paper tests the effects of the global crisis on the structure of the Turkish banking sector using bank-level data during 2002Q4-2013Q3 period and employing random effects model. The selected dependent variables are financial ratios on capital adequacy, asset quality, liquidity, profitability, balance sheet and income-expenditure structure; while main determinants are bank-specific control variables on overdue loans, overhead costs, bank size and FX open position as well as dummy variables for bank age, bank listing and ownership. Other determinants include growth, inflation, policy rate, exchange rate and required reserves, which capture the effects of monetary policy and macroeconomic conditions on bank structure. Estimation results suggest that the structure of the Turkish banking sector has indeed changed after the global crisis. This result can be attributed to the increased significance of the monetary policy and changing macroeconomic conditions in the post-crisis period. Meanwhile, bank-specific determinants, which are important before the crisis, are found to have an even accentuated effect on the structure of Turkish banks in the aftermath of the global crisis. For refinement of these results, future research may elaborate on how ownership matters with respect to the changing structure of the Turkish banking sector and may analyze whether banks respond assymetrically to the global crisis. Prospective studies may also examine the individual aspects of this changing structure. In this regard, profitability and bank lending behavior stand out as major issues to be explored further. |
| Keywords: | Global crisis, Turkish banking sector, Random effects model, Monetary policy, Ownership, Profitability |
| JEL: | C23 E44 E52 G01 G21 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:1429&r=mac |
| By: | Musgrave, Ralph S. |
| Abstract: | Section 1 of this work argues the case for full reserve banking. Section 2 explains the flaws in a large number of arguments put AGAINST full reserve, and section 3 explains the flaws in a few arguments put IN FAVOUR of full reserve. |
| Keywords: | Banking; full reserve; 100% reserve. |
| JEL: | E32 E4 E41 E42 G01 G21 G24 H5 |
| Date: | 2014–08–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:57955&r=mac |
| By: | Mark Gertler (New York University (E-mail: mark.gertler@nyu.edu)); Nobuhiro Kiyotaki (Princeton University (E-mail: kiyotaki@princeton.edu)) |
| Abstract: | We develop a variation of the macroeconomic model of banking in Gertler and Kiyotaki (2011) that allows for liquidity mismatch and bank runs as in Diamond and Dybvig (1983). As in Gertler and Kiyotaki, because bank net worth fluctuates with aggregate production, the spread between the expected rates of return on bank assets and deposits fluctuates countercyclically. However, because bank assets are less liquid than deposits, bank runs are possible as in Diamond and Dybvig. Whether a bank run equilibrium exists depends on bank balance sheets and an endogenous liquidation price for bank assets. While in normal times a bank run equilibrium may not exist, the possibility can arise in a recession. We also analyze the effects of anticipated bank runs. Overall, the goal is to present a framework that synthesizes the macroeconomic and microeconomic approaches to banking and banking instability. |
| Keywords: | Financial Intermediation, Liquidity Mismatch, Financial Accelerator, Rollover Risk |
| JEL: | E44 G21 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:14-e-05&r=mac |
| By: | Cacciatore, Matteo (Institute of Applied Economics); Ghironi, Fabio (University of Washington); Stebunovs, Viktors (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the domestic and international effects of national bank market integration in a two-country, dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model with endogenous producer entry. Integration of banking across localities reduces the degree of local monopoly power of financial intermediaries. The economy that implements this form of deregulation experiences increased producer entry, real exchange rate appreciation, and a current account deficit. The foreign economy experiences a long-run increase in GDP and consumption. Less monopoly power in financial intermediation results in less volatile business creation, reduced markup countercyclicality, and weaker substitution effects in labor supply in response to productivity shocks. Bank market integration thus contributes to moderation of firm-level and aggregate output volatility. In turn, trade and financial ties allow also the foreign economy to enjoy lower GDP volatility in most scenarios we consider. These results are consistent with features of U.S. and international fluctuations after the United States began its transition to interstate banking in the late 1970s. |
| Keywords: | Business cycle volatility; current account; deregulation; interstate banking; producer entry; real exchange rate |
| JEL: | E32 F32 F41 G21 |
| Date: | 2014–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1111&r=mac |
| By: | J. Baron; J. Schmidt |
| Abstract: | We uncover technological standardization as a microeconomic mechanism which is vital for the implementation of new technologies, in particular general purpose technologies. The interdependencies of these technologies require common rules (“standardization”) to ensure compatibility. Using data on standardization, we are therefore able to identify technology shocks and analyze their impact on macroeconomic variables. First, our results show that technology shocks diffuse slowly and generate a positive S-shaped reaction of output and investment. Before picking up permanently, total factor productivity temporarily decreases, suggesting that the newly adopted technology is incompatible with installed physical, human and organizational capital. Second, standardization can reveal news about future movements of macroeconomic aggregates as evidenced by the positive and immediate reaction of stock market variables to the identified technology shock. |
| Keywords: | technology adoption, business cycle dynamics, standards, aggregate productivity, Bayesian vector autoregressions. |
| JEL: | E32 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:503&r=mac |
| By: | Rosengren, Eric S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | In a speech at UMass Boston, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren illustrated how unusually weak this recovery has been, which emphasizes the need for continued accommodative monetary policy. |
| Date: | 2013–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbsp:77&r=mac |
| By: | Bagnall, John (Reserve Bank of Australia); Bounie, David (Telecom ParisTech); Huynh, Kim P. (Bank of Canada); Kosse, Anneke (De Nederlandsche Bank); Schmidt, Tobias (Deutsche Bundesbank); Schuh, Scott (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston); Stix, Helmut (Oesterrichische Nationalbank) |
| Abstract: | We measure consumers' use of cash by harmonizing payment diary surveys from seven countries. The seven diary surveys were conducted in 2009 (Canada), 2010 (Australia), 2011 (Austria, France, Germany, and the Netherlands), and 2012 (the United States). Our paper finds cross-country differences — for example, the level of cash use differs across countries. Cash has not disappeared as a payment instrument, especially for low-value transactions. We also find that the use of cash is strongly correlated with transaction size, demographics, and point-of-sale characteristics such as merchant card acceptance and venue. |
| Keywords: | money demand; payment systems; harmonization |
| JEL: | D12 D14 E41 |
| Date: | 2014–05–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:14-4&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17363&r=mac |
| By: | Rigas Oikonomou (HEC Montreal and Institut d'Analisi Economica); Christian Siegel (Department of Economics, University of Exeter) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of capital and labor taxation in an economy where couples bargain over the intrahousehold allocation. We present a life cycle model with heterogeneous individuals and incomplete nancial markets. Drawing from the literature of the collective framework of household behavior, we model decision making within the couple as a contract under limited commitment. In this framework more wealth improves commitment and gives rise to insurance gains within the household. Our theory motivates these gains by the empirical observation that wealth, in contrast to labor income, is a commonly held resource within households. Based on this observation we study whether eliminating capital taxes from the economy, and raising labor taxes to balance the government's budget, may generate welfare gains to married households. We illustrate that the quantitative eects from this reform are rather small. We attribute the small effects to the life cycle pattern of wealth accumulation and to the impact of labor income taxes on household risk sharing: In particular, we show that higher labor taxes may deteriorate the limited commitment problem, even though they may make the distribution of labor income more equitable within the household. |
| Keywords: | Life cycle models, incomplete financial markets, tax reform, intrahousehold allocations. |
| JEL: | D13 D52 E21 E62 H31 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exe:wpaper:1413&r=mac |
| By: | Jae Sim (Federal Reeserve Board); Raphael Schoenle (Brandeis University); Egon Zakrajsek (Federal Reserve Board); Simon Gilchrist (Boston University) |
| Abstract: | Using confidential product-level price data underlying the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), this paper analyzes the effect of changes in firms' financial conditions on their price-setting behavior during the "Great Recession" that surrounds the financial crisis. The evidence indicates that during the height of the crisis in late 2008, firms with "weak" balance sheets increased prices significantly relative to industry averages, whereas firms with "strong" balance sheets lowered prices, a response consistent with an adverse demand shock. These stark differences in price-setting behavior are consistent with the notion that financial frictions may significantly influence the response of aggregate inflation to macroeconomic shocks. We explore the implications of these empirical findings within a general equilibrium framework that allows for customer markets and departures from the frictionless financial markets. In the model, firms have an incentive to set a low price to invest in market share, though when financial distortions are severe, firms forgo these investment opportunities and maintain high prices in an effort to preserve their balance-sheet capacity. Consistent with our empirical findings, the model with financial distortions—relative to the baseline model without such distortions—implies a substantial attenuation of price dynamics in response to contractionary demand shocks. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed014:206&r=mac |
| By: | Leroi Raputsoane |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the relationship between financial stress indicator variables and monetary policy in South Africa with emphasis on how robust these variables are related to the monetary policy interest rate. The financial stress indicator variables comprise a set of variables from the main segments of the South African financial market that include the bond and equity securities markets, the commodities market and the foreign exchange rate market. The empirical results show that the set of financial stress indicator variables from the bond and equity securities markets as well as those from credit markets and property markets are robustly associated with the monetary policy interest rate, while the set of financial stress indicator variables from commodities markets and the foreign exchange rate market are weakly associated with the monetary policy interest rate. |
| Keywords: | Financial stress indicator variables, Monetary policy |
| JEL: | C32 C51 E52 E61 G01 G10 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:443&r=mac |
| By: | Üngör, Murat (Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Turkey has the lowest hours worked (the product of total employment and annual hours per worker, divided by the size of the working-age population) among the OECD countries. We study the changes in hours of work following Ohanian, Raffo, and Rogerson (Journal of Monetary Economics, 2008) and find that the intratemporal first-order condition from the neoclassical growth model accounts for the decline in total hours worked during 1998-2009 in Turkey. Hours worked increased in Turkey since 2009 and the model accounts for half of that increase between 2009 and 2011. Our findings suggest that time-varying taxes on consumption and labor play significant roles in explaining the hours worked in Turkey. The subsistence term is quantitatively important during 2003-2011. The presence of government consumption in the utility function does not seem very important. |
| Keywords: | Labor supply; employment; hours of work; growth model; taxes; Turkey. |
| JEL: | E13 E20 E60 J22 O50 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:219&r=mac |
| By: | Layal Mansour (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - École Normale Supérieure (ENS) - Lyon - PRES Université de Lyon - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - Université Claude Bernard - Lyon I (UCBL)) |
| Abstract: | This aim of the present paper is to measure first, the degree of trilemma indexes: exchange rate stability, monetary independence capital account openness while taking into account the increase of hording IR ratio over GDP, over External Debt and over Short Term External Debt. The evolution of the trilemma indexes shows that countries applying de facto flexible Exchange Rate Regime (ERR) take advantage of the IR and become able to adopt a managed ERR that consist of achieving the three trilemma indexes simultaneously without renouncing to anyone of them. We found that different IR ratio could have different interpretations and different directions of monetary policies, where external debt should be taken into consideration in such study while using the IR. As for country that is applying a de facto fixed exchange rate regime, the IR (different ratio) do not play any role in changing the patter of the Mundell trilemma and do not intervene in monetary authority policies. This paper treats as well the normative aspects of the trilemma, relating the policy choices to macroeconomic outcomes such as the volatility of output growth. We found different results from country to another, while taking different ratios of measuring IR, concluding that the impact of IR on the output volatility could change due to the level of external debt and adopted exchange rate regime. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; International Reserve; External Debts; Impossible Trinity; Managed Exchange Rate; Quadrilemma; Output Volatilily |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01054614&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Expenditure Policy Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Development Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16631&r=mac |
| By: | Fernando Leibovici (Department of Economics, York University, Toronto, Canada); Michael E. Waugh (New York University and NBER) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the dynamics of international trade flows at business cycle frequencies. We show that introducing dynamic considerations into an otherwise standard model of trade can account for several puzzling features of trade flows at business cycle frequencies. Our insight is that because international trade is time-intensive, variation in the rate at which agents are willing to substitute across time affects how trade volumes respond to changes in output and prices. We formalize this idea and calibrate our model to match key features of U.S. data. We find that, in contrast to standard staticmodels of international trade, ourmodel is quantitatively consistent with salient features of U.S. cyclical import fluctuations. We also find that our model accounts for two-thirds of the peak-to-trough decline in imports during the 2008-2009 recession. |
| Date: | 2014–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yca:wpaper:2014_5&r=mac |
| By: | Omar Joya; Faruk Khan |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Public Sector Expenditure Policy Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Development Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18633&r=mac |
| By: | David Miller (Federal Reserve Board) |
| Abstract: | Price commitment results in lower welfare. I explore the consequences of price commitment by pairing an independent monetary authority issuing nominal bonds with a fiscal authority whose endogenous spending decisions are determined by a political economy model. Without price commitment, nominal bonds are backed by a new form of endogenous commitment that overcomes time inconsistency to make tax smoothing possible. With price commitment, nominal bonds will be used for both tax smoothing and wasteful spending. Price commitment eliminates monetary control over fiscal decisions. I show that the combination observed in advanced economies of a politically distorted fiscal authority and an independent monetary authority with nominal bonds and without price commitment is the solution to a constrained mechanism design problem that overcomes time inconsistency and results in the highest welfare. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed014:80&r=mac |
| By: | Ayse Kabukcuoglu (Department of Economics, Koc University) |
| Abstract: | I quantify the welfare effects of replacing the US capital income tax with higher labor income taxes under international financial integration using a two-country, heterogeneous-agent incomplete markets model calibrated to represent the US and the rest of the world. Short-run and long-run factor price dynamics are key: after the tax reform, interest rates rise less under financial openness than in autarky. Therefore, wealthy households gain less. Post-tax wages also fall less as a result of the faster capital accumulation, so the poor are hurt less. Hence, the distributional impacts of the reform are significantly dampened relative to autarky although a majority of households prefer the status quo. Aggregate welfare effect to the US is a permanent 0.2% consumption equivalent loss under financial openness which is roughly 15% of the welfare loss under autarky. |
| Keywords: | Heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets, taxation, financial integration. |
| JEL: | E62 F41 D52 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1418&r=mac |
| By: | Eran Yashiv (Tel Aviv University); Renato Faccini (Queen Mary, University of London) |
| Abstract: | We embed convex hiring and investment costs and their interaction in a New Keynesian DSGE model with Nash wage bargaining. We explore the implications with respect to infl‡ation dynamics. We estimate hiring frictions to explain about 60% of the variation in marginal costs, the labor share to explain around 30%, while the remaining 10% is accounted for by intrafi…rm bargaining. These results have been obtained with moderate total and marginal adjustment costs. Labor market frictions are thus far more important than the labor share in driving marginal costs at business cycle frequencies, in sharp contrast to results in the literature. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed014:178&r=mac |
| By: | Yunfang Hu (Kobe University); Kazuo Mino (Kyoto University) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the relation between capital accumulation and transformation of industrial structure in a small open-economy. Using a three-sector, neoclassical growth model with non-homothetic preferences, we examine dynamic behavior of the small country in the alternative trade regimes. We show that capital accumulation plays a leading role in the process of structural transformation. It is also revealed that the trade pattern significantly affects structural change. We demonstrate that our model can mimic a typical pattern of change in industrial structure that has been observed in many developed economies. |
| Keywords: | Structural change, Small-open economy, Trade Pattern, Three-sector model, Non-homothetic preferences |
| JEL: | E21 O10 O41 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:900&r=mac |
| By: | Bletzinger, Tilman; Wieland, Volker |
| Abstract: | On July 4, 2013 the ECB Governing Council provided more specific forward guidance than in the past by stating that it expects ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. As explained by ECB President Mario Draghi this expectation is based on the Council’s medium-term outlook for inflation conditional on economic activity and money and credit. Draghi also stressed that there is no precise deadline for this extended period of time, but that a reasonable period can be estimated by extracting a reaction function. In this note, we use such a reaction function, namely the interest rate rule from Orphanides and Wieland (2013) that matches past ECB interest rate decisions quite well, to project the rate path consistent with inflation and growth forecasts from the survey of professional forecasters published by the ECB on August 8, 2013. This evaluation suggests an increase in ECB interest rates by May 2014 at the latest. We also use the Eurosystem staff projection from June 6, 2013 for comparison. While it would imply a longer period of low rates, it does not match past ECB decisions as well as the reaction function with SPF forecasts. -- |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:imfswp:74&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Banks and Banking Reform Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16691&r=mac |
| By: | Iordan-Constantinescu, Nicolae |
| Abstract: | The article argues that neither the EU member states, nor the EU candidate states give enough attention to the requirement of maintaining a high economic performance of their economies by convergence and competitiveness strategies, so that they could have "the capacity to cope with competitive pressures and market forces within the Union" and ensure the proper functioning of the single currency. Instead, by the synergy of internal market and single currency, coupled with a populist nationalistic policy at the level of most EU member states, ideal conditions were generated so that factors distribution spontaneously acts, as proved consistently and more visible during the latest financial and economic crisis, by the so-called countries' specialization, deindustrialization and a North-South rupture. |
| Keywords: | competitiveness, competition, convergence, euro, single currency, monetary policy |
| JEL: | E42 E61 F36 F43 G15 O47 |
| Date: | 2014–08–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:57980&r=mac |
| By: | Faruk Khan; Omar Joya |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Environmental Economics and Policies Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16656&r=mac |
| By: | Gianluca Violante (NYU); Greg Kaplan (Princeton University); Justin Weidner |
| Abstract: | The wealthy hand-to-mouth are households who hold little or no liquid wealth (e.g. cash, checking, and saving accounts), despite owning sizable amounts of illiquid assets (i.e., assets that carry a transaction cost, such as housing, large durables, or retirement accounts). This portfolio configuration implies that these households have large marginal propensities to consume out of small income changes –a key determinant of the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. The wealthy hand-to-mouth, therefore, behave in many respects like households with little or no net worth, yet they escape standard definitions (and empirical measurements) of hand-to-mouth agents based on net worth. We use survey data on household portfolios for the U.S., Canada, Australia, the U.K., Germany, France, Italy, and Spain to document the share of such households across countries, their demographic characteristics, the composition of their balance sheet, and the persistence of hand-to-mouth status over the life cycle. Finally, we discuss the implications of this group of consumers for macroeconomic modelling and policy analysis. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed014:192&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18651&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16721&r=mac |
| By: | Ron Alquist; Olivier Coibion |
| Abstract: | Guided by a macroeconomic model in which non-energy commodity prices are endogenously determined, we apply a new factor-based identification strategy to decompose the historical sources of changes in commodity prices and global economic activity. The model yields a factor structure for commodity prices and identification conditions that provide the factors with an economic interpretation: one factor captures the combined contribution of shocks that affect commodity markets only through general-equilibrium forces. Applied to a cross-section of commodity prices since 1968, the theoretical restrictions are consistent with the data and yield structural interpretations of the common factors in commodity prices. Commodity-related shocks have contributed modestly to global economic fluctuations. |
| Keywords: | Economic models, International topics |
| JEL: | E3 F4 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:14-32&r=mac |
| By: | Messina, Julian; Gambetti, Luca |
| Abstract: | A vector autoregression model with time-varying coefficients is used to examine the evolution of wage cyclicality in four Latin American economies: Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico, during the period 1980-2010. Wages are highly pro-cyclical in all countries up to the mid-1990s except in Chile. Wage cyclicality declines thereafter, especially in Brazil and Colombia. This decline in wage cyclicality is in accordance with declining real-wage flexibility in a low-inflation environment. Controlling for compositional effects caused by changes in labor force participation along the business cycle does not alter these results. |
| Keywords: | Labor Policies,Environmental Economics&Policies,Labor Markets,Youth and Governance,Economic Theory&Research |
| Date: | 2014–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6978&r=mac |
| By: | Finn Martensen (Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Germany) |
| Abstract: | The U.S. minimum wage declined in real terms since the late 1970s. In the same time, the wage of the least skilled workers fell in real terms, while the wage of the highest skilled workers increased. To shed light on these issues, I use a simple model of routinization. High-ability workers, after having received additional education, can substitute low-ability co-workers by machines. Technical progress results in more high-ability workers receiving additional education and in a declining wage for low-ability workers. A government opposes both unemployment and wage inequality. I calibrate the model and show that technical progress induces the government to lower the minimum wage. Hence, the model contributes to understand the decline in the U.S. minimum wage. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wage, Routinization, Education, Wage inequality, Unemployment |
| JEL: | E24 I24 J31 J88 |
| Date: | 2014–08–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:knz:dpteco:1416&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Public Sector Expenditure Policy Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Transport Economics Policy and Planning Public Sector Development Transport Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17798&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18653&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16559&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16988&r=mac |
| By: | Yıldırım, Zekeriya (Department of Economics, Anadolu University, Eskisehir, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Bu çalışma Türkiye iş gücü piyasasının dinamiklerini küçük boyutlu bir makroekonomik modele dayalı olarak eş bütünleşme yaklaşımıyla incelemektedir. Çalışmada kullanılan veri seti istihdam, verimlilik ve reel ücretlere ilişkin çeyrek dönemlik verileri içermekte ve 1988:1- 2012:2 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Sonuçlar Türkiye iş gücü piyasasında kilit değişkenin reel ücretler olduğunu, istihdamda katılıkların bulunduğunu ve reel ücret-verimlilik bağının zayıf olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu nedenle, Türkiye iş gücü piyasasının etkinliği açısından reel ücretlerdeki esneklik oldukça önemlidir. |
| Keywords: | İş Gücü Piyasası, Eş Bütünleşme, SVECM |
| JEL: | J01 C50 E24 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:222&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17788&r=mac |
| By: | Jean-Bernard Chatelain (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne - Paris School of Economics); Kirsten Ralf (ESCE - International Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper demonstates the existence of a finite set of equilibria in the case of the indeterminacy of linear rational expectations models. The number of equilibria corresponds to the number of ways to select n eigenvectors among a larger set of eigenvectors related to stable eigenvalues. A finite set of equilibria is a substitute to continuous (uncountable) sets of sunspots equilibria, when the number of independent eigenvectors for each stable eigenvalue is equal to one. |
| Keywords: | Linear rational expectations models, indeterminacy, multiple equilibria, Riccati equation, sunspots. |
| JEL: | C60 C61 C62 E13 E61 |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:14060&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18731&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16527&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Expenditure Policy Banks and Banking Reform Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Public Sector Development Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18730&r=mac |
| By: | Pierre-Richard Agénor; Hinh T. Dinh |
| Keywords: | Private Sector Development - E-Business Social Protections and Labor - Labor Policies Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Economic Theory and Research Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17024&r=mac |
| By: | Trade Policy Section, Trade and Investment Division, and the Macroeconomic Policy and Analysis Section, Macroeconomic Policy and Development Division, ESCAP. |
| Abstract: | In the current global financial crisis, 15 September 2008 marked a decisive turning point. It was the day that the American investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. collapsed, exacerbating the financial turmoil and causing an extraordinary downward spiral in confidence. It was also the day on which the crisis truly hit Asia- Pacific shores, spreading beyond its equity markets and posing the greatest threat to development since the financial collapse of 1997. The impact on the region was seen most immediately in the financial sector, while the medium-term impact on growth will become evident in the coming months. Countries will be able to avoid the worst of the consequences by bolstering national policy actions with key concerted regional cooperation initiatives. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unt:pbmpdd:pb1&r=mac |
| By: | Valentina Bosetti; Marco Maffezzoli |
| Abstract: | Recent applications to the modeling of emission permit markets by means of stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models look into the relative merits of different policy mechanisms under uncertainty. The approach taken in these studies is to assume the existence of an emission constraints that is always binding (i.e. the emission cap is always smaller than what actual emissions would be in the absence of climate policy). Although this might seem a reasonable assumption in the longer term, as policies will be increasingly stringent, in the short run there might be instances where this assumption is in sharp contrast with reality. A notable example would be the current status of the European Emission Trading Scheme. This paper explores the implications of adopting a technique that allows occasionally, rather than strictly, binding constraints. With this new setup the paper sets out to investigate the relative merits of different climate policy instruments under different macro-economic shocks. Keywords: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model, emission trading, carbon tax, occasionally binding constraints. JEL codes: Q58, Q54, E2. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:igi:igierp:523&r=mac |
| By: | International Monetary Fund; World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Markets and Market Access Finance and Financial Sector Development - Mutual Funds Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16747&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Health Monitoring and Evaluation Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Health, Nutrition and Population |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16542&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Banks and Banking Reform Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16497&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Markets and Market Access Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16613&r=mac |
| By: | Bradbury, Katharine L. (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | Economists often expect unemployment insurance (UI) benefits to elevate unemployment rates because recipients may choose to remain unemployed in order to continue receiving benefits, instead of accepting a job or dropping out of the labor force. This paper uses individual data from the Current Population Survey for the period between 2005 and 2013 — a period during which the federal government extended and then reduced the length of benefit availability to varying degrees in different states — to investigate the influence of program parameters in the UI system on monthly transition rates of unemployed individuals. The main finding is that unemployed job losers tend to remain unemployed until they exhaust UI benefits, at which point they become more likely to drop out of the labor force; transitions to a job appear to be unaffected by UI benefit extensions. These findings imply that the longer periods of benefit eligibility under the federal programs EUC08 and EB — up to 99 weeks in many states in 2011 and 2012 — contributed to the elevated jobless rates observed during that period, but not via lower employment. By the same token, the sharp contraction of benefit weeks that occurred in 2012 and continued more gradually in 2013 likely contributed to declines in unemployment and participation rates beyond what one would expect based on the improving economy alone. Similarly, the December 28, 2013 sudden cutoff of federal UI payments to an estimated 1.3 million jobless Americans who had been looking for work for more than six months is adding to the pace of transitions from unemployment to dropping out of the labor force, thus reducing the unemployment rate and the labor force participation rate further in the first half of 2014, although very modestly. |
| Keywords: | unemployment insurance; federal benefit extensions; labor force participation |
| JEL: | E24 J22 J65 |
| Date: | 2014–07–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:14-2&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16740&r=mac |
| By: | Altantsetseg Shiilegmaa; Khandtsooj Gombosuren; Davaadalai Batsuuri |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16643&r=mac |
| By: | Otaviano Canuto; Jose Guilherme Reis; Matheus Cavallari |
| Keywords: | Private Sector Development - E-Business Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Environmental Economics and Policies Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17038&r=mac |
| By: | Camilo Gomez Osorio; Kishan Abeygunawardana; Shalika Subasinghe; Changqing Sun |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Public Sector Economics Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Development Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18654&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Banks and Banking Reform Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16521&r=mac |
| By: | Dilbaz Alacahan, Nur (Department of Economics, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Çanakkale, Turkey); Ataklı, Rüya (Department of Economics, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Çanakkale, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Ekonomik kalkınmanın gerçekleştirilmesinde çıkış yollarından biri beşeri sermayedir. Beşeri sermayenin geliştirilmesi Türkiye gibi gelişmekte olan ülkeler için son derece önem arz etmektedir. Bu gelişim, 2012 yılı verilerine göre Türkiye nüfusunun %49.8’ini oluşturan kadınların da işgücü piyasasına yeteri düzeyde katılımı ile gerçekleştirilmelidir. Sürdürülebilir kalkınmada önemli bir unsur olan kadın işgücü, özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde temelde kültürel faktörler, beşeri sermaye düzeyindeki farklılıklar ve kadınların emek piyasalarındaki konumlarını düzenleyen/etkileyen kamu politikaları gibi çeşitli nedenlerden dolayı emek piyasasına yeteri düzeyde katılamamaktadır. Bu durum eksik istihdam, GSYIH’nin artırılamaması, yoksulluğun artması, verimliliğin azalması gibi önemli sorunları da beraberinde getirmektedir. Çalışmada öncelikle kadın işgücünün ve kadının işgücüne katılımının ekonomideki önemi belirtilmekte, seçilen gelişmekte olan ülkeler bazında mevcut durum incelenmekte ve Türkiye örneği üzerinde durulmaktadır. |
| Keywords: | İstihdam, Kadın İşgücü, Türkiye |
| JEL: | E24 J16 O50 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:15&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Banks and Banking Reform Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16990&r=mac |
| By: | Öztürkler, Harun (Department of Economics, Afyon Kocatepe University, Afyon, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Structure of the economy refers to the shares of the broad sectors agriculture, industry, and services in gross domestic income (GDP) and employment. On the other hand, structural transformation refers the change in these shares over time. The purpose of this study is to enhance our understanding of the forces behind structural transformation and investigate the link between economic growth and structural transformation in Turkey. The study begins by reviewing and evaluating the literature on structural transformation. Then the study empirically investigates the process of transformation and its link to economic growth on the basis of a multi–sector growth model. The study compares the structural transformation process in Turkey with that of some other countries on the basis of the findings of similar studies. The study concludes by making sub-sectoral economic policy suggestions in order to raise economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Structural Transformation, Growth, Turkey. |
| JEL: | C50 C60 E20 J20 O40 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:201&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Economic Theory and Research Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16698&r=mac |
| By: | Kirthirsri Rajatha Wijeweera; Chandana Kularatne; Daminda Eymard Fonseka; Camilo Gomez Ozorio |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16494&r=mac |
| By: | Vincent Sterk (University College London); Petr Sedlacek (Bonn University) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that job creation of cohorts of U.S. firms is strongly influenced by aggregate conditions at the time of their entry. Using data from the Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS) we follow cohorts of young firms and document that their employment levels are very persistent and largely driven by the intensive margin (average firm size) rather than the extensive margin (number of firms). To differentiate changes in the composition of startup cohorts from post-entry choices and to evaluate aggregate effects, we estimate a general equilibrium firm dynamics model using BDS data. We find that even for older firms, the aggregate state at birth drives the vast majority of variations in employment across cohorts of the same age. The key force behind this result is fluctuation in choices made by startups that determine their potential to grow large. At the aggregate level, startup decisions account for the large low-frequency fluctuations observed in the employment rate. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed014:84&r=mac |
| By: | Daria Taglioni; Deborah Winkler |
| Keywords: | Information and Communication Technologies - ICT Policy and Strategies Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Economic Theory and Research Social Protections and Labor - Labor Policies Private Sector Development - E-Business Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18421&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16515&r=mac |
| By: | Duc Minh Pham; Deepak Mishra; Kee-Cheok Cheong; John Arnold; Anh Minh Trinh; Huyen Thi Ngoc Ngo; Hien Thi Phuong Nguyen |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policies International Economics and Trade - Trade Policy Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - E-Business Transport Economics Policy and Planning Environment Transport Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16786&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:19021&r=mac |
| By: | Meissner, Thomas; Rostam-Afschar, Davud |
| Abstract: | This paper tests whether the Ricardian Equivalence proposition holds in a life cycle consumption laboratory experiment. This proposition is a fundamental assumption underlying numerous studies on intertemporal choice and has important implications for tax policy. Using nonparametric and panel data methods, we find that the Ricardian Equivalence proposition does not hold in general. Our results suggest that taxation has a significant and strong impact on consumption choice. Over the life cycle, a tax relief increases consumption on average by about 22% of the tax rebate. A tax increase causes consumption to decrease by about 30% of the tax increase. These results are robust with respect to variations in the difficulty to smooth consumption. In our experiment, we find the behavior of about 62% of our subjects to be inconsistent with the Ricardian proposition. Our results show dynamic effects; taxation inuences consumption beyond the current period. -- |
| Keywords: | Ricardian Equivalence,Taxation,Life Cycle,Consumption,Laboratory Experiment |
| JEL: | D91 E21 H24 C91 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:201416&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policies Transport Economics Policy and Planning Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Transport Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16541&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17000&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Private Sector Development - E-Business Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Markets and Market Access Transport Economics Policy and Planning Environmental Economics and Policies Environment Transport |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16581&r=mac |
| By: | Qahir Dhanani; Mina Lee |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Investment and Investment Climate Finance and Financial Sector Development - Mutual Funds Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17610&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policies Banks and Banking Reform Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16731&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Poverty Reduction - Rural Poverty Reduction Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Public Sector Expenditure Policy Public Sector Development Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16989&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Environmental Economics and Policies Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Environment |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16502&r=mac |
| By: | Tran, Vivian |
| Abstract: | Les récentes tendances de l’inégalité et de la pauvreté dans l’Ouest du Canada, région connue pour ses ressources énergétiques, semblent suivre les variations des prix de l’énergie, le plus gros de la hausse de l’inégalité et de la pauvreté s’étant produit lors du boom de l’énergie entre les milieux des années 1990 et 2000. Ces tendances étaient précédemment plus prononcées dans les provinces possédant les plus grandes ressources énergétiques, par rapport aux provinces qui en avaient moins. Les avantages économiques d’un boom de l’énergie pourraient potentiellement modifier les éléments liés à l’inégalité et à la pauvreté, selon la façon dont les gains se situent dans la répartition des richesses. Dans une étude du RCCMTC intitulée « La répartition des richesses avec le boom de l’énergie dans l’Ouest du Canada » (Rapport de recherche du RCCMTC no 137), Joseph Marchand (Université de l’Alberta) recherche les rapports entre l’inégalité, la pauvreté et les booms de l’énergie au Canada, en considérant particulièrement les marchés du travail locaux dans l’Ouest du Canada. Et il semble qu'en général, le récent boom de l'énergie a un peu augmenté l’inégalité et a considérablement réduit la pauvreté, avec pourtant quelques cas notables où, à l’inverse, l’inégalité a légèrement décliné alors que la pauvreté avait modestement augmenté. Au cours des quinze dernières années, la croissance de l’inégalité des revenus a curieusement été faible au Canada. Mais cela veut-il dire que l’inégalité en prospérité matérielle a été nulle ? Les membres affiliés du RCCMTC Sam Norris (Université Northwestern) et Krishna Pendakur (Université Simon Fraser) ont trouvé des preuves du contraire dans leur récente étude intitulée « Inégalité de la consommation au Canada, de 1997 à 2009 » (Rapport de recherche du RCCMTC no 138). Selon eux, bien que l’inégalité du revenu des ménages n’ait pratiquement pas évolué au cours des années 1997 à 2009, l’inégalité de la consommation des ménages a progressé de façon modérée pendant cette période. Comme la consommation est plus proche de la prospérité matérielle que du revenu, une importante augmentation de l’inégalité économique s’est donc produite. |
| Keywords: | répartition, boom de l’énergie, inégalité, marché du travail local, pauvreté, consommation, inégalité, Canada |
| JEL: | J31 Q33 R23 E21 D63 |
| Date: | 2014–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ubc:clssrn:clsrn_admin-2014-36&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Transport Economics Policy and Planning Economic Theory and Research Health, Nutrition and Population - Population Policies Public Sector Economics Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Transport Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16789&r=mac |
| By: | Bouoiyour, Jamal; Selmi, Refk |
| Abstract: | The present paper seeks to effectively address the following question: What Bitcoin looks like? To do so, we regress Bitcoin price on a number of variables (Bitcoin fundamentals recorded in the literature) by applying an ARDL Bounds Testing approach for daily data covering the period from December 2010 to June 2014. Our findings highlight the speculative nature of Bitcoin. We also provide insightful evidence that Bitcoin may be used for economic reasons but there is any sign of being a safe haven. By considering the Chinese trading bankruptcy and the closing of Road Silk by FBI, the contribution of users’ interest stills sharply dominant, indicating the robustness of our results. |
| Keywords: | Bitcoin; ARDL Bounds Testing method; innovative accounting approach; VEC Granger causality test. |
| JEL: | E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2014–08–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:57907&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Environmental Economics and Policies Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Banks and Banking Reform Macroeconomics and Economic Growth Environment |
| Date: | 2013–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16489&r=mac |
| By: | Carlos Gustavo Cano |
| Abstract: | Recientemente, las alteraciones de las condiciones climáticas, cada vez con mayor frecuencia e intensidad, vienen afectando la producción de alimentos en Colombia y en el resto del mundo, provocando por consiguiente una creciente volatilidad de los precios de los alimentos, la cual se suma al cambio de los hábitos de nutrición de la población en las economías emergentes hacia el consumo de mayores contenidos de proteína animal, y al notable aumento de la producción de biocombustibles a partir de granos y oleaginosas. Como resultado, la presión de los precios de los alimentos se ha convertido en un factor de enorme peso en la determinación de la inflación total. Presión que por representar un típico choque ajeno a la demanda interna, se escapa del alcance de los instrumentos convencionales de la política monetaria. Por tanto, son otras políticas públicas las que deben responder. De un lado, la política agraria en materia de ciencia y tecnología, de la superación del conflicto entre la vocación agroecológica y el uso de la tierra principalmente a través del impuesto predial, y de la inclusión financiera en las áreas rurales. Y del otro, la tributación ambiental, en particular el establecimiento de un impuesto a las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero y de un régimen de créditos tributarios originados en la inversiones que sus contribuyentes adelanten en proyectos de ‘adaptación’ enmarcados dentro de objetivos de desarrollo sostenible orientados a mitigar el impacto adverso del cambio climático sobre el recurso hídrico y la producción agrícola. Classification JEL: E31, O13, L65. |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:836&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Economics Taxation and Subsidies Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Climate Change Economics Public Sector Development |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16573&r=mac |
| By: | Cobb, Marcus |
| Abstract: | The use of chain-linked methods reduces significantly the problem of price structure obsolescence present in fixed base environments and it has been, therefore, adopted by many countries to measure GDP. The price updating it involves introduces a dimension new to those accustomed to the fixed based methodology that may produce confusion if not accounted for. Probably the most notorious difficulty generated by the introduction of chain-linked indices to the measurement of GDP has been that the aggregate is not the direct sum of its components, thus making it harder to explain its behaviour in terms of the specific sectors. To alleviate this problem most countries publish sector contributions in conjunction with aggregate GDP growth, however, there is no consensus on a single way of calculating these contributions when the annual overlap method is applied. In this context, this document compares a number of different ways of calculating contributions that have been suggested in the relevant literature and highlights their strengths and weaknesses. The results show that the outcomes of using different measures may vary considerably under certain circumstances, such as high price volatility, and that some of the measures do not fulfil certain desirable properties. In an application to Chilean GDP we find that the differences are negligible between the measures that do account for the chain-linking but significant when compared to the traditional fixed base measure. |
| Keywords: | Contributions, GDP growth, chain-linking, annual overlap |
| JEL: | E01 O47 |
| Date: | 2014–08–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:58022&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Markets and Market Access Finance and Financial Sector Development - Currencies and Exchange Rates Economic Theory and Research Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17578&r=mac |
| By: | Enrique Blanco Armas; Ekaterina Gratcheva; Dmitry Pevzner; Natasha Sharma |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Economic Theory and Research Public Sector Management and Reform Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Public Sector Development Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17361&r=mac |
| By: | Serkan Çınar (Celal Bayar University, International Trade, School of Applied Sciences, Manisa, Turkey); Hayriye Başçı Nur (Celal Bayar University, Department of Economics, Manisa, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Para politikası uygulamalarında, para talebinin belirleyicileri ve kararlılığı büyük bir önem arz etmektedir. Para talebinin belirleyicileri ve kararlılığı, istikrarlı bir para politikasını oluşturmak için gerekli olan para talebi fonksiyonun tahmin edilebilmesini sağlamaktadır. Makroekonomi teorisi uyarınca, herhangi bir ülkede para talebinin, ekonomik aktivitelerin ölçülmesine yarayan gelir ve fırsat maliyetinin ölçülmesine yarayan faiz olmak üzere iki temel belirleyicisi bulunmaktadır. Mundell (1963) ise, öncü olarak, para talebini etkileyen bir diğer faktör olarak döviz kurunu da fonksiyona dahil etmiştir. Para talebinin, hem gelişmiş hem de gelişmekte olan ülkelerde istikrarlı olup olmadığını test eden birçok çalışma bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmaların birçoğu, para talebi fonksiyonunda yer alan değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisini aramış ve olası ilişkinin uzun dönemli kararlı bir ilişkinin işareti olduğunu ifade etmişlerdir. Fakat Bahmani (2008) tarafından da belirtildiği gibi eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığı para talebi fonksiyonunun kararlılığını göstermemektir. İstikrarlılığın testi için Brown vd. (1975) tarafından yazına kazandırılan CUSUM veya CUSUMSQ gibi kararlılık testlerini de yapmak gerekmektedir. Çalışmanın amacı, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde uzun dönemli para talebini etkileyen makro ekonomik değişkenlerin belirlenmesi ve istikrarlı bir para politikası için gerekli olan para talebi kararlılığının tahminlenmesidir. Bu amaçla, Bahmani (2008), Bahmani ve Kutan (2010), Bahmani-Oskooee, Kutan ve Xi (2013) çalışmalarına dayanan para talebi fonksiyonu panel veri analizleri kullanılarak incelenmektedir. Çalışmanın ekonometrik analiz kısmında, yatay kesit bağımlılığı için CD testleri, eşbütünleşme varlığını araştırmak için Westerlund (2005) testi, uzun dönem katsayılarına tahminlemek için Panel ARDL modeline dayanan Pesaran (1999)’un PMG (Pooled Mean Group) ve MG (Mean Group) testleri ve son olarak para talebi fonksiyonunun kararlılığı test etmek için CUSUM ve CUSUMSQ testleri uygulanmaktadır. Çalışmada yapılan ekonometrik analizler sonucunda, modele dahil edilen panel ülkelerinde gelir ve döviz kurunun uzun dönemli para talebinin önemli birer belirleyicisi olduğu ve para talebi fonksiyonun kararlı olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır. |
| Keywords: | Para Talebi, Eşbütünleşme, Kararlılık, Panel Veri Seti |
| JEL: | C23 E41 E52 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eyd:cp2013:239&r=mac |
| By: | Brian Blankespoor |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Markets and Market Access Transport Economics Policy and Planning Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Regional Economic Development Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Health, Nutrition and Population - Population Policies Transport |
| Date: | 2013–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16486&r=mac |
| By: | Artur Kochnakyan; Ani Balabanyan; Zhengjia Meng; Bastiaan Verink |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Energy - Energy Production and Transportation Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17009&r=mac |
| By: | International Monetary Fund; World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Finance and Financial Sector Development - Financial Intermediation Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16744&r=mac |
| By: | Jack G.A.J. van der Vorst; Joost Snels |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Markets and Market Access Transport Economics Policy and Planning Social Protections and Labor - Labor Policies Food and Beverage Industry Private Sector Development - E-Business Transport Industry |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:17834&r=mac |
| By: | Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola; Haliassos, Michael |
| Abstract: | Regulation of investor access to financial products is often based on product familiarity indicated by previous use. The underlying premise that lack of familiarity with a product class causes unwarranted participation is difficult to test. This paper uses household-level data from the 'experiment' of German reunification that (exogenously) offered to East Germans access to capitalist products (exogenously) unfamiliar to them. We compare the evolution of post-unification participation of former East and West Germans in financial products, controlling for relevant household characteristics. We vary familiarity differentials by considering (i) both unfamiliar 'capitalist' products (stocks, bonds, and consumer credit) and ones available in the East (savings accounts and life insurance); and (ii) cohorts with different exposure to capitalism. We find that East Germans participated immediately in unfamiliar risky securities, at rates comparable to West Germans of similar characteristics. They phased out disproportionate participation in previously familiar assets as familiarity with capitalist products grew. They were more likely to use consumer debt, partly to catch up with richer new peers. We find no signs of abrupt participation drops that could suggest mistakes or regret related to lack of familiarity. -- |
| Keywords: | household finance,familiarity,financial literacy,stockholding,household debt,social interactions,consumer credit,counterfactual analysis,German reunification |
| JEL: | G11 E21 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:63&r=mac |
| By: | Christoph Basten; Catherine Koch |
| Abstract: | We examine mortgage pricing before and after Switzerland was the first country to activate the Counter-Cyclical Capital Buffer of Basel III. Observing multiple mortgage offers per request, we obtain three core findings. First, capitalconstrained and mortgage-specialized banks raise their rates relatively more. Second, risk-weighting schemes supposed to discriminate against more risky borrowers do not amplify the effect of higher capital requirements. Third, CCB-subjected banks and CCB-exempt insurers raise mortgage rates, but insurers raise rates by on average 8.8 bp more. To conclude, lenders welcome the opportunity to increase mortgage rates, but stricter capital requirements do not discourage banks from risky mortgage lending. |
| Keywords: | Bank lending, mortgage market |
| JEL: | G21 E51 |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:169&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development - Access to Finance Banks and Banking Reform Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Regional Economic Development Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Health, Nutrition and Population - Population Policies |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18733&r=mac |
| By: | Trade Policy Section, Trade and Investment Division, and the Macroeconomic Policy and Analysis Section, Macroeconomic Policy and Development Division, ESCAP. |
| Abstract: | The development path of Asia and the Pacific has increasingly relied on economic growth led by rapid export growth. What does the financial crisis imply for the region’s future development path? The second policy brief in this series on the financial crisis assesses the extent to which developing economies1 are export dependent, and the extent to which their exports are dependent on developed markets that have been hit the hardest in the current crisis. Drawing from this assessment, it comments on the reality or myth of a “decoupling” process for Asia. Finally, it offers some policy options for the region. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unt:pbmpdd:pb2&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policies International Economics and Trade - Free Trade Economic Theory and Research Transport Economics Policy and Planning International Economics and Trade - Trade Policy Environment Transport Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:18645&r=mac |
| By: | Becker, Julia-Maria |
| Abstract: | In a world that gets more and more connected every day, and where countries interact on global markets with a frequency like never before, an economic crisis has an effect with a reach much wider than some years ago. Little is known for the Mexican case about the impact of the crisis of 2008 on labor income and worked hours for the whole economically active population, individuals working in different sectors, and commonly considered highly vulnerable groups like women or single mothers. I use a difference-in-differences estimator to measure the impact of the crisis on the labor income and worked hours of Mexican women and men working in different sectors.The following investigation has three main strings: 1. I will provide evidence that the crisis of 2008 had an impact on labor income and worked hours; 2. I will show that different regions and sectors in Mexico were affected differently; 3. I distinguish the impact between women and men, and focus on single mothers. |
| Keywords: | Mexican labor market, impact crisis 2008, gender income difference, wage of women in Mexico, vulnerable groups, manufacturing sector |
| JEL: | E32 J31 J71 O54 |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:57964&r=mac |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Banks and Banking Reform Geographical Information Systems Economic Theory and Research Rural Development Knowledge and Information Systems Water Resources - Water and Industry Finance and Financial Sector Development Rural Development Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16686&r=mac |
| By: | Artur Kochnakyan; Ani Balabanyan; Pedro Antmann; Caterina Ruggeri Laderchi; Anne Olivier; Lauren Pierce; Denzel Hankinson |
| Keywords: | International Economics and Trade - International Trade and Trade Rules Energy - Energy Production and Transportation Economic Theory and Research Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Infrastructure Economics and Finance - Infrastructure Economics Macroeconomics and Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:16703&r=mac |