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on Macroeconomics |
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Issue of 2011‒08‒29
fifty-two papers chosen by Soumitra K Mallick Indian Institute of Social Welfare and Business Management |
| By: | Karlygash Kuralbayeva |
| Abstract: | The paper examines implications of inflation persistence for business cycle dynamics following terms of trade shock in a small oil producing economy, under inflation targeting and exchange rate targeting regimes. It is shown that due to the 'Walters critique' effect, the country's adjustment paths are slow and cyclical if there is a significant backward-looking element in the inflation dynamics and the exchange rate is fixed. It is also shown that such cyclical adjustment paths are moderated if there is a high proportion of forward-looking price setters in theh economy, so that when the Phillips curve becomes completely forward-looking cyclicality in adjustment paths disappears and the response of the real exchange rate becomes hump-shaped. In contrast, with an independent monetary policy, irrespective of the degree of inflation persistence, flexible exchange rate allows to escape severe cycles, which results in a smooth response of the real exchange rate. |
| Keywords: | inflation inertia, inflation targeting, exchange rate targeting, Phillips curve, oil shocks, small open economy |
| JEL: | E32 F40 F41 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:063&r=mac |
| By: | Viktors Ajevskis; Kristine Vitola |
| Abstract: | We evaluate implications of inflation targeting versus fixed exchange rate regime for the UK, Sweden, Poland, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, i.e. seven EU non-euro area countries. To this end, we estimate a small open economy DSGE model and simulate a model under estimated structural parameters and different sets of policy parameters. The results obtained are compared in terms of inflation, output gap and interest rate volatility. For inflation targeting countries, a policy switch to fixed exchange rate would entail 3–6 times higher inflation volatility. In the Baltic economies, a policy change to inflation targeting with fully flexible exchange rate would amplify inflation volatility 2–4 times, whereas the existing price stabilisation and exchange rate fluctuations within the ERM II bands would entail 3–6 times more volatile inflation. Policy simulations thus show evidence that in all the countries the existing monetary rule guarantees more stable inflation and output than under alternative regimes. |
| Keywords: | DSGE, small open economy, fixed exchange rate, inflation targeting, Bayesian estimation |
| JEL: | C11 C3 C51 D58 E58 F41 |
| Date: | 2011–07–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ltv:wpaper:201102&r=mac |
| By: | Ivan Werning |
| Abstract: | I study monetary and fiscal policy in liquidity trap scenarios, where the zero bound on the nominal interest rate is binding. I work with a continuous-time version of the standard New Keynesian model. Without commitment, the economy suffers from deflation and depressed output. I show that, surprisingly, both are exacerbated with greater price flexibility. I examine monetary and fiscal policies that maximize utility for the agent in the model and refer to these as optimal throughout the paper. I find that the optimal interest rate is set to zero past the liquidity trap and jump discretely up upon exit. Inflation may be positive throughout, so the absence of deflation is not evidence against a liquidity trap. Output, on the other hand, always starts below its efficient level and rises above it. I then study fiscal policy and show that, regardless of parameters that govern the value of “fiscal multipliers” during normal or liquidity trap times, at the start of a liquidity trap optimal spending is above its natural level. However, it declines over time and goes below its natural level. I propose a decomposition of spending according to “opportunistic” and “stimulus” motives. The former is defined as the level of government purchases that is optimal from a static, cost-benefit standpoint, taking into account that, due to slack resources, shadow costs may be lower during a slump; the latter measures deviations from the former. I show that stimulus spending may be zero throughout, or switch signs, depending on parameters. Finally, I consider the hybrid where monetary policy is discretionary, but fiscal policy has commitment. In this case, stimulus spending is typically positive and increasing throughout the trap. |
| JEL: | E0 H5 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17344&r=mac |
| By: | Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana; Keith Kuester; Juan Rubio-Ramírez |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of changes in uncertainty about future fiscal policy on aggregate economic activity. Fiscal deficits and public debt have risen sharply in the wake of the financial crisis. While these developments make fiscal consolidation inevitable, there is considerable uncertainty about the policy mix and timing of such budgetary adjustment. To evaluate the consequences of this increased uncertainty, we first estimate tax and spending processes for the U.S. that allow for time-varying volatility. We then feed these processes into an otherwise standard New Keynesian business cycle model calibrated to the U.S. economy. We find that fiscal volatility shocks have an adverse effect on economic activity that is comparable to the effects of a 25-basis-point innovation in the federal funds rate. |
| JEL: | C11 E10 E30 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17317&r=mac |
| By: | Tatiana Lysenko; Geoff Barnard |
| Abstract: | South Africa’s macroeconomic framework has served the economy well, but should be strengthened to make the economy more resilient to external shocks. Enhancing the credibility of the inflation target would provide the monetary authorities with more space for flexibility in the face of exogenous shocks. To ease the pressure on the exchange rate emanating from high commodity prices and sentiment-driven surges in capital inflows, the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves by the central bank should be more rapid, and the removal of remaining controls on capital outflows should be accelerated. Fiscal policy has been generally sound, but should be tighter and more counter-cyclical during the economic upswings to prevent a structural deterioration of the fiscal balance and to create more room for manoeuvre during downturns. A fiscal rule that institutionally constrains discretionary policy may facilitate this task. It would also help ensure that the strong public commitment to address major social challenges, improve access to public services and promote long-term growth by investing in physical infrastructure and human capital can be sustained. In conjunction with a greater effort to identify and tax economic rents from natural resource extraction, consideration should be given to establishing a mechanism to manage commodity price windfalls. This paper relates to the 2010 Economic Survey of South Africa (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/southafrica).<P>Renforcer le dispositif de la politique macroéconomique en Afrique du Sud<BR>Le dispositif de politique macroéconomique de l’Afrique du Sud a produit de bons résultats, mais il convient de le renforcer pour assurer une plus grande résistance aux chocs externes. Améliorer la crédibilité de l’objectif d’inflation donnerait aux autorités monétaires plus de latitude pour réagir aux chocs exogènes. Afin de réduire la pression à la hausse du taux de change, résultant du prix élevé des matières premières et d’entrées de capitaux spéculatifs, il faudrait que la banque centrale laisse augmenter plus rapidement ses réserves de change et que la suppression des contrôles des mouvements de capitaux encore en vigueur s’accélère. La politique budgétaire a généralement été saine, mais devrait être resserrée et devenir plus anticyclique pendant les phases de reprise, pour éviter une dégradation structurelle du solde budgétaire et élargir la marge de manoeuvre disponible pendant les récessions. Une règle budgétaire faciliterait la tâche en soumettant les mesures discrétionnaires à une contrainte institutionnelle. Elle aiderait à garantir aussi le respect durable du ferme engagement de l’État de relever les grands défis sociaux, d’améliorer l’accès aux services publics et de promouvoir la croissance à long terme en investissant dans les infrastructures physiques et le capital humain. Tout en s’efforçant davantage de recenser et de taxer les rentes économiques liées à l’exploitation des ressources naturelles, on pourrait envisager d’instituer un mécanisme de gestion des recettes exceptionnelles tirées des matières premières. Ce document se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’OCDE de l’Afrique du Sud 2010 (www.oecd.org/eco/etudes/afriquedusud). |
| Keywords: | fiscal policy, exchange rates, capital flows, monetary policy, fiscal rules, exchange rate policy, economy, inflation, inflation targeting, South Africa, interest rates, politique budgétaire, taux de change, politique monétaire, règles budgétaires, économie, inflation, taux d'intérêt, ciblage de l’inflation, Afrique du Sud, politique de taux de change |
| JEL: | E30 E31 E50 E52 E58 E61 E62 F32 |
| Date: | 2011–02–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:847-en&r=mac |
| By: | Nikolov, Kalin |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we build a framework which can generate endogenous fluctuations in downpayment requirements. We extend the model of Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) by considering an environment, in which savers can keep their anonymity but borrowers cannot. This allows lenders to punish defaulting borrowers by excluding them from future borrowing. They cannot however stop them from saving in the anonymous financial market. We show how the possibility of such market exclusion can lead to the emergence of intangible collateral in equilibrium alongside the tangible collateral which is usually studied in the literature. Fluctuations in the value of intangible collateral are isomorphic to fluctuations in the amount of borrowing firms can secure against the value of their tangible assets. We find that, when we combine the intangible collateral mechanism in our paper with counter-cyclical variance of idiosyncratic productivity shocks, this helps to generate realistic negative co-movement of downpayment requirements and aggregate output over the business cycle. In this case, the presence of intangible collateral increases the amplification of business cycle fluctuations relative to the standard Kiyotaki-Moore (1997) model. |
| Keywords: | Collateral constraints; Aggregate fluctuations |
| JEL: | E32 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:32939&r=mac |
| By: | Nigel Pain; Oliver Röhn |
| Abstract: | The financial crisis revealed flaws in pre-crisis policy frameworks. Particular gaps included the failure of monetary and financial policies to incorporate fully the implications of the rapid pro-cyclical growth in financial leverage and risk-taking, especially across national borders, and the failure of fiscal policy to create sufficient space for policy manoeuvre in event of a crisis. During the crisis, the clear pre-crisis assignments of policy instruments to objectives became blurred, and the effectiveness of separate policy instruments became increasingly interdependent. In the early stages of the exit from the crisis, policy decisions continue to be made in an environment of high uncertainty. In the near term, important policy priorities are to support the recovery, to keep projected inflation close to target and to pursue internationally co-ordinated financial and structural reforms to enhance financial market resilience and strengthen the prospects for macroeconomic stability. In the medium term, the priority is to ensure that the overall policy framework is more robust than prior to the crisis, which may also require institutional reforms. There are good arguments for restoring a clear assignment of policy instruments to policy objectives and policy institutions, but for this to occur it will be especially important that well-founded and internationally consistent reforms to financial regulation and supervision are put in place.<P>Le cadre de la politique économique après la crise<BR>La crise financière a révélé les failles des politiques économiques menées antérieurement. On peut citer en particulier l?incapacité des politiques monétaires et financières à intégrer pleinement les effets du rapide développement procyclique de l?effet de levier et de la prise de risques, y compris à l?échelle internationale; et aussi le fait que la politique budgétaire n?ait pas dégagé une marge suffisante pour pouvoir agir en cas de crise. Pendant la crise, l?affectation claire des instruments de politique aux objectifs s?est estompée et a fait place à une interdépendance croissante des différents instruments. Dans les premiers temps de la sortie de crise, on a continué à prendre des décisions entachées d?une grande incertitude. Dans le court terme, les priorités politiques essentielles sont de soutenir la reprise, maintenir l?anticipation d?inflation proche de l?objectif, ainsi qu?à procéder à des réformes financières et structurelles, coordonnées sur le plan international, qui renforcer la résistance des marchés financiers et améliorer les perspectives de stabilité macroéconomique. Á moyen terme, la priorité est de s?assurer que le cadre global de politique économique soit plus solide qu?avant la crise, ce qui pourrait aussi exiger des réformes institutionnelles. Il y a de bons arguments en faveur du retour à une affectation claire des instruments de politique aux objectifs et aux institutions ; mais cela sera conditionné par le lancement de réformes judicieuses et internationalement compatibles de la réglementation et de la supervision financières. |
| Keywords: | growth, fiscal policy, monetary policy, crisis, recovery, financial market policy, croissance, politique budgétaire, politique monétaire, crise, reprise, politique à l'égard des marchés financiers |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E62 G28 |
| Date: | 2011–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:857-en&r=mac |
| By: | Takero Doi; Takeo Hoshi; Tatsuyoshi Okimoto |
| Abstract: | We construct quarterly series of the revenues, expenditures, and debt outstanding for Japan from 1980 to 2010, and analyze the sustainability of the fiscal policy. We pursue three approaches to examine the sustainability. First, we calculate the minimum tax rate that stabilizes the debt to GDP ratio given the future government expenditures. Using 2010 as the base year, we find that the government revenue to GDP ratio must rise permanently to 40%-47% (from the current 33%) to stabilize the debt to GDP ratio. Second, we estimate the response of the primary surplus when the debt to GDP ratio increases. We allow the relationship to fluctuate between two “regimes” using a Markov switching model. In both regimes, the primary surplus to GDP ratio fails to respond positively to debt, which suggests the process is explosive. Finally, we estimate a fiscal policy function and a monetary policy function with Markov switching. We find that the fiscal policy is “active” (the tax revenues do not rise when the debt increases) and the monetary policy is “passive” (the interest rate does not react to the inflation rate sufficiently) in both regimes. These results suggest that the current fiscal situation for the Japanese government is not sustainable. |
| JEL: | E62 H62 H63 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17305&r=mac |
| By: | Robert Price; Thai-Thanh Dang |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a method for adjusting structural budget balances for asset price cycles and presents estimates of structural budget balances corrected for house-price and equity-price cycles for OECD countries. The traditional cyclically adjusted budget balance indicator, which is the basis for measuring structural or underlying budget balances, does not adjust for the effects of cyclical fluctuations in asset prices. This implies that, by default, asset price related effects on revenues are included in the structural budget measure. That can be misleading for policy makers where asset price shifts prove to be temporary, leading to pro-cyclical fiscal action, especially where policy makers cut tax rates or increase spending in response to unexpected revenue buoyancy. The paper first presents econometric estimates of tax revenue elasticities measuring the response of the major tax categories to house-price and equity-price movements. It then uses these elasticities to adjust revenues for the effects of asset price cycles measured in terms of deviations from “fundamental” and smoothed asset prices. To the extent that asset price movements are independent of, and uncorrelated with, the output cycle, the adjustment can be added to the conventional structural balance to create an asset-adjusted structural balance. The analysis is retrospective, but an important consideration has been to improve the identification of cyclical revenue fluctuations as they occur, or as they are incorporated into fiscal projections, and to be able to recognise the source of revenue “surprises”.<P>L'ajustement des soldes budgétaires en fonction des cycles de prix des actifs<BR>Le présent document expose une méthode d?ajustement des soldes budgétaires structurels en fonction des cycles de prix des actifs et donne des estimations des soldes budgétaires structurels corrigés des fluctuations conjoncturelles des prix des logements et des prix des actions pour les pays de l?OCDE. L?indicateur traditionnel des soldes budgétaires corrigés des influences conjoncturelles, qui sert à mesurer les soldes structurels ou sous-jacents, ne s?ajuste pas en fonction des effets des fluctuations conjoncturelles des prix des actifs. Il en résulte que, par défaut, les effets des prix des actifs sur les recettes sont pris en compte dans la mesure du budget structurel. Cela peut induire en erreur les décideurs publics en cas de variations temporaires des prix des actifs, conduisant à une action budgétaire pro-cyclique, surtout lorsque des mesures d?allégement d?impôt ou d?augmentation de dépenses sont prises en présence d?une abondance inattendue de recettes. Ce document présente tout d?abord des estimations économétriques des élasticités des recettes fiscales mesurant la réaction des principales catégories d?impôt aux variations des prix des logements et des prix des actions. Ces élasticités sont ensuite utilisées pour ajuster les recettes en fonction des effets des cycles de prix des actifs mesurés en termes d?écarts par rapport aux prix « fondamentaux » ou lissés. Dans la mesure où les fluctuations des prix des actifs sont indépendantes du cycle de la production, ou sans lien avec ce dernier, l?ajustement peut être ajouté au solde structurel classique afin d?obtenir un solde structurel corrigé des fluctuations des prix des actifs. L?analyse est rétrospective, mais l?on s?est attaché tout particulièrement à mieux identifier les fluctuations conjoncturelles des recettes au fur et à mesure de leur survenue, ou de leur incorporation dans les projections budgétaires, et à parvenir à reconnaître l?origine de recettes « surprenantes ». |
| Keywords: | automatic stabilisers, house prices, budget balances, cyclical adjustment, tax elasticities, asset cycles, equity prices, capital taxes, stabilisateurs automatiques, prix des logements, solde budgétaire, ajustement conjoncturel, élasticités fiscales, cycles des actifs, prix des actions, impôts sur le capital |
| JEL: | E32 E62 H2 H62 |
| Date: | 2011–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:868-en&r=mac |
| By: | Aubhik Khan; Julia K. Thomas |
| Abstract: | We study the cyclical implications of credit market imperfections in a calibrated dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium model wherein firms face persistent shocks to aggregate and individual productivity. In our model economy, optimal capital reallocation is distorted by two frictions: collateralized borrowing and partial capital irreversibility yielding (S,s) firm-level investment policies. In the presence of persistent heterogeneity in capital, debt and total factor productivity, the effects of a financial shock are amplified and propagated through large and long-lived disruptions to the distribution of capital that, in turn, imply large and persistent reductions in aggregate total factor productivity. We find that an unanticipated tightening in borrowing conditions can, on its own, generate a large recession far more persistent than the financial shock itself. This recession, and the subsequent recovery, is distinguished both quantitatively and qualitatively from that driven by exogenous shocks to total factor productivity. |
| JEL: | E22 E32 E44 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17311&r=mac |
| By: | Patrick Slovik; Boris Cournède |
| Abstract: | The estimated medium-term impact of Basel III implementation on GDP growth is in the range of -0.05 to -0.15 percentage point per annum. Economic output is mainly affected by an increase in bank lending spreads as banks pass a rise in bank funding costs, due to higher capital requirements, to their customers. To meet the capital requirements effective in 2015 (4.5% for the common equity ratio, 6% for the Tier 1 capital ratio), banks are estimated to increase their lending spreads on average by about 15 basis points. The capital requirements effective as of 2019 (7% for the common equity ratio, 8.5% for the Tier 1 capital ratio) could increase bank lending spreads by about 50 basis points. The estimated effects on GDP growth assume no active response from monetary policy. To the extent that monetary policy will no longer be constrained by the zero lower bound, the Basel III impact on economic output could be offset by a reduction (or delayed increase) in monetary policy rates by about 30 to 80 basis points.<P>Impact macro-économique de Bâle III<BR>L'impact estimé à moyen terme de la mise en conformité avec les règles de Bâle III sur la croissance du PIB est de l'ordre de -0,05 à -0,15 point de pourcentage par an. L’effet sur l’activité économique provient principalement de ce que les banques augmentent leurs marges de crédit afin de compenser la hausse de leurs coûts de financement provoquée par le durcissement des exigences de capital. Pour répondre aux exigences de fonds propres en 2015 (4,5% pour le ratio d'actions ordinaires, 6% pour le ratio de fonds propres de base), les banques devraient augmenter leurs marges de crédit d'environ 15 points de base en moyenne. Les exigences de capital en vigueur à compter de 2019 (7% pour le ratio d'actions ordinaires, 8,5% pour le ratio de fonds propres de base) pourraient augmenter les marges de crédit d’environ 50 points de base. Les effets estimés sur la croissance du PIB n’incorporent aucune réponse de la politique monétaire. Pour autant que la politique monétaire ne se heurte plus au plancher zéro des taux nominaux, l'impact de Bâle III sur la production économique pourrait être compensé par une réduction (ou un retard avant l’augmentation) des taux de la politique monétaire d'environ 30 à 80 points de base. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, bank, financial intermediaries, interest rates, Basel accord, Basel III, bank regulation, bank lending, bank capital requirements, politique monétaire, banque, taux d'intérêt, intermédiaires financiers, Accord de Bâle, Bâle III, Réglementation bancaire, Crédit bancaire, Réglementation des fonds propres bancaires |
| JEL: | E52 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2011–02–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:844-en&r=mac |
| By: | Kakarot-Handtke, Egmont |
| Abstract: | The present paper replaces the standard behavioral axioms by structural axioms and applies these to the analysis of the accumulation and decumulation of capital. This yields a coherent view of the interrelations of real and nominal saving–investment, of profit–loss, of money–credit, and of internal–external financing. The main result is that asymmetric growth is indispensable for the viability of the market system. |
| Keywords: | New framework of concepts; Structure-centric; Axiom set; Symmetric investment cycle; Asymmetric investment cycle; Flux-reflux; Real rate of interest; Nominal rate of profit; Financial profit; Nonfinancial profit; Roundaboutness |
| JEL: | E22 E23 E21 E10 E40 |
| Date: | 2011–08–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:32895&r=mac |
| By: | Niels-Jakob Harbo Hansen; Peter Welz |
| Abstract: | A stable relationship between monetary policy rates and bank lending and deposit rates faced by consumers and companies is essential for the effective transmission of monetary policy decisions. This paper studies how changes in the policy rate set by the Swedish central bank, the Riksbank, have been transmitted to money market rates and, in turn, to retail rates before and during the financial turmoil that erupted in summer 2007. Historically, the Riksbank has been successful in effectively controlling money market rates, but during the financial turmoil the transmission of impulses from the policy rate to money market rates appears to have been weakened by elevated and volatile risk premia, although these increased less in Sweden than in the euro area, United Kingdom and United States. The pass-through from money market rates to retail rates is found to have been complete, but sluggish, before the turmoil. Pass-through was also faster into short-term loan rates for non-financial companies than for households. During the turmoil the pass-through from money market to lending rates has been preserved at short maturities, but not at longer maturities. Lack of access to long-term funding has likely played a role.<P>Le canal de transmission des taux d'intérêt pendant la crise financière mondiale : le cas de la Suède<BR>L’existence d’une relation stable entre les taux d’intérêt fixés par les autorités monétaires et les taux que les banques offrent aux ménages et aux entreprises est essentielle pour la transmission des décisions de politique monétaire. Cet article étudie comment les changements de taux d’intérêt de la banque centrale de Suède, la Riksbank, se répercutent sur les taux du marché monétaire, puis sur les taux proposés par les institutions financières à leurs clients, avant et pendant la crise financière démarrant en 2007. Le contrôle de la Riksbank sur les taux du marché monétaire, fort au court des dernières années, apparaît affaibli par l’importance et la volatilité des primes de risque depuis l’été 2007, même si ces dernières ont moins augmenté en Suède que dans d’autres pays de l’OCDE. La transmission des variations des taux du marché monétaire aux taux offerts par les institutions financières semble avoir été complète avant la crise, bien que lente. Elle était aussi plus rapide pour les prêts de court terme aux entreprises non-financières que pour les prêts aux ménages. Pendant la crise, le canal de transmission des taux du marché monétaire aux taux offerts par les institutions financières a été préservé pour les courtes maturités, mais affaibli pour les longues maturités. Le manque d’accès à des financements de long terme a pu jouer un rôle. |
| Keywords: | Sweden, interest rate pass-through, financial crisis, monetary transmission, Suède, crise financière, canaux de transmission de la politique monétaire, transmission des taux d’intérêt |
| JEL: | E43 E52 |
| Date: | 2011–04–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:855-en&r=mac |
| By: | Robert J. Barro; José F. Ursua |
| Abstract: | The potential for rare macroeconomic disasters may explain an array of asset-pricing puzzles. Our empirical studies of these extreme events rely on long-term data now covering 28 countries for consumption and 40 for GDP. A baseline model calibrated with observed peak-to-trough disaster sizes accords with the average equity premium with a reasonable coefficient of relative risk aversion. High stock-price volatility can be explained by incorporating time-varying long-run growth rates and disaster probabilities. Business-cycle models with shocks to disaster probability have implications for the cyclical behavior of asset returns and corporate leverage, and international versions may explain the uncovered-interest-parity puzzle. Richer models of disaster dynamics allow for transitions between normalcy and disaster, bring in post-crisis recoveries, and use the full time series on consumption. Potential future research includes applications to long-term economic growth and environmental economics and the use of stock-price options and other variables to gauge time-varying disaster probabilities. |
| JEL: | E01 E44 G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17328&r=mac |
| By: | Scott J. Dressler (Department of Economics and Statistics, Villanova School of Business, Villanova University) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the long-run and short-run (i.e. along the transition path) welfare implications of permanent changes in inflation in an environment with essential money and perfectly competitive markets. The model delivers a monetary distribution that matches moments of the distribution seen in the US data. Although there is potential for wealth redistribution to deliver welfare gains from inflation, the (total) costs of 10 percent inflation relative to zero is over 7 percent of consumption. While these results suggest a dominating real-balance effect of inflation, a politico-economic analysis concludes that the prevailing (majority rule) inflation rate is above the Friedman Rule. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; Welfare; Transitions; Voting |
| JEL: | E40 E50 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vil:papers:16&r=mac |
| By: | Hatcher, Michael C. (Cardiff Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a detailed survey of the economic literature comparing inflation and price-level targeting as macroeconomic stabilisation policies. Its contributions relative to past surveys are as follows. First, rather than focusing on any particular topic, the survey gives equal emphasis to all key areas of the literature. Second, the paper discusses 'new results' in several areas, including the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates; the long-term impact of price-level targeting; and financial market considerations. Finally, the survey is written in such a way that it can be understood by economists with little or no prior knowledge of price-level targeting and the related academic literature. The survey concludes that whilst price-level targeting has a number of potential advantages, further research is needed to accurately quantify its costs and benefits and to test robustness. Potential obstacles to the introduction of price-level targeting in practice include: concerns about its credibility; lack of public understanding; and lack of prior experience with price-level targeting regimes. |
| Keywords: | Price-level targeting; inflation targeting; macroeconomic stabilisation |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2011/22&r=mac |
| By: | Richard Herd; Paul Conway; Sam Hill; Vincent Koen; Thomas Chalaux |
| Abstract: | In recent years, India has enjoyed one of the highest growth rates worldwide, weathering the global financial crisis better than many other countries. Prudent macroeconomic policies will be critical to prolonging the current expansion, given the risks associated with high inflation and volatile capital flows. A steadfast commitment to fiscal consolidation is needed to continue to reduce the large deficit that emerged in the aftermath of the slowdown and avoid crowding out private investment. Stepping up structural reforms will also be necessary if double-digit growth rates are to be achievable over the coming decade or so. Indeed, the operating environment for private business remains challenging. While infrastructure is improving in key sectors, partly thanks to greater private investment, bottlenecks endure and efforts to intensify competition and ensure continued strong investment are required. Labour market reforms are also required to promote job creation. Rapid economic development has boosted living standards and reduced poverty but poverty remains high. There is a need to strengthen social welfare systems and access to health and education to ensure widespread benefits from continued high growth. This Working Paper relates to the 2011 OECD Economic Survey of India (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/india)<P>L'Inde peut-elle réaliser un taux de croissance à deux chiffres ?<BR>L'Inde a connu, ces dernieres annees, l'un des taux de croissance les plus eleves au monde, et a su mieux que bien d'autres pays traverser la crise financiere mondiale. Pour prolonger l'expansion actuelle, des politiques macroeconomiques prudentes sont essentielles, etant donne les risques lies a une inflation elevee et a flux capitaux volatiles. Le pays devra egalement s'engager resolument sur la voie de l'assainissement budgetaire s'il veut continuer a reduire le large deficit apparu au lendemain du ralentissement economique et eviter l'eviction de l'investissement prive. L'acceleration des reformes structurelles est egalement necessaire pour rendre possible une croissance a deux chiffres sur la decennie a venir. En effet, l'environnement dans lequel operent les entreprises privees reste difficile. Si l'infrastructure s'ameliore dans certains secteurs cles, en partie grace a un accroissement des investissements prives, des goulets d'etranglement demeurent et il faudra s'efforcer d'intensifier la concurrence et de maintenir le dynamisme des investissements. Des reformes du marche du travail seront egalement necessaires pour promouvoir la creation d'emplois. Le developpement economique rapide a stimule le niveau de vie et reduit la pauvrete mais le nombre d'Indiens vivant dans l'indigence reste eleve. Il faudra renforcer les systemes de protection sociale et l'acces a la sante et a l'education pour que la poursuite de la croissance profite au plus grand nombre. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l'Etude économique de l'OCDE de l’Inde 2011 (www.oecd.org/eco/etudes/inde) |
| Keywords: | growth, product market regulation, health, investment, competition, education, macroeconomic policies, infrastructure, inflation, India, poverty, saving, labour market, demographics, santé, croissance, investissement, éducation, politique macro-économique, concurrence, infrastructure, inflation, réglementation des marchés de produits, pauvreté, Inde, épargne, facteurs démographiques, réglementation du marché du travail |
| JEL: | E21 E22 E23 E27 E66 I31 J24 J68 L50 L93 L96 L98 N15 N75 O11 O43 O47 O53 |
| Date: | 2011–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:883-en&r=mac |
| By: | Andreas Fuster; Benjamin Hebert; David Laibson |
| Abstract: | How does an economy behave if (1) fundamentals are truly hump-shaped, exhibiting momentum in the short run and partial mean reversion in the long run, and (2) agents do not know that fundamentals are hump-shaped and base their beliefs on parsimonious models that they fit to the available data? A class of parsimonious models leads to qualitatively similar biases and generates empirically observed patterns in asset prices and macroeconomic dynamics. First, parsimonious models will robustly pick up the short-term momentum in fundamentals but will generally fail to fully capture the long-run mean reversion. Beliefs will therefore be characterized by endogenous extrapolation bias and pro-cyclical excess optimism. Second, asset prices will be highly volatile and exhibit partial mean reversion—i.e., overreaction. Excess returns will be negatively predicted by lagged excess returns, P/E ratios, and consumption growth. Third, real economic activity will have amplified cycles. For example, consumption growth will be negatively auto-correlated in the medium run. Fourth, the equity premium will be large. Agents will perceive that equities are very risky when in fact long-run equity returns will co-vary only weakly with long-run consumption growth. If agents had rational expectations, the equity premium would be close to zero. Fifth, sophisticated agents—i.e., those who are assumed to know the true model—will hold far more equity than investors who use parsimonious models. Moreover, sophisticated agents will follow a counter-cyclical asset allocation policy. These predicted effects are qualitatively confirmed in U.S. data. |
| JEL: | D84 E32 G12 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17301&r=mac |
| By: | Hirose, Yasuo; Kurozumi, Takushi |
| Abstract: | The observed decline in the relative price of investment goods to consumption goods in Japan suggests the existence of investment-specific technological (IST) changes. We examine whether IST changes are a major source of business fluctuations in Japan, by estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Bayesian methods. We show that IST changes are less important than neutral technological changes in explaining output fluctuations. We also demonstrate that investment fluctuations are mainly driven by shocks to investment adjustment costs. Such shocks represent variations of costs involved in changing investment spending, such as financial intermediation costs. We then find that the estimated series of the investment adjustment cost shock correlates strongly with the diffusion index of firms' financial position in the Tankan (Short-term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan). We thus argue that the large decline in investment growth in the early 1990s is due to an increase in investment adjustment costs stemming from firms' tight financial constraint after the collapse of Japan's asset price bubble. |
| Keywords: | Business fluctuation; Investment-specific technology; Investment adjustment cost shock; Financial intermediation cost; Firms' financial constraint |
| JEL: | E32 E31 E22 |
| Date: | 2011–03–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:32944&r=mac |
| By: | Linda Rousová; Paul van den Noord |
| Abstract: | OECD work prior to the financial crisis suggested that real prices in several housing markets had become vulnerable to a change in financial and economic conditions, with the risk of a subsequent downturn becoming increasingly possible, as proved to be the case. With corrections in many, but not all, housing markets having now occurred, and, in some countries, prices having rebounded rapidly in the low interest rate environment, the issue of whether prices are now close to another turning point is again of considerable policy interest. As a means of addressing this issue, probit models have been estimated to provide an indication of possible peaks and troughs in real house prices in 2011 and 2012, using data for 20 OECD countries. Predictions based on these models have been reported in OECD Economic Outlook, No. 89 and this paper provides information on the methodology underpinning these predictions.<P>Comment prévoir les fluctuations des prix réels des logements ?<BR>Les travaux menés par l’OCDE avant la crise financière laissaient entendre que les prix réels sur plusieurs marchés du logement ne sauraient résister à une modification des conditions financières et économiques, alors que le risque que leur vulnérabilité n’entraîne une crise économique devenait de plus en plus probable, ainsi que les événements ultérieurs l’ont d’ailleurs démontré. Les prix s’étant désormais rétablis sur un grand nombre, bien que pas sur la totalité, des marchés du logement, et ayant même, dans certains pays, enregistré une remontée rapide favorisée par la faiblesse des taux d’intérêt, la question de savoir s’ils font aujourd’hui face à un nouveau changement de cap mobilise fortement l’intérêt des gouvernements. Pour tenter de répondre à cette question, des modèles probits, dont on estime qu’ils pourraient fournir une indication des fluctuations possibles des prix réels des logements en 2011 et 2012, ont été sollicités et utilisés avec des données concernant 20 pays de l’OCDE. Les prévisions établies sur la base de ces modèles ont été reproduites dans les Perspectives économiques de l'OCDE, n°89, et le présent document donne des informations sur la méthodologie employée à cet effet. |
| Keywords: | house prices, business cycles, housing bubbles, cycle économique, prix des logements, bulles immobilière |
| JEL: | E32 F42 R31 |
| Date: | 2011–07–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:882-en&r=mac |
| By: | Sanjay K. Chugh; Fabio Ghironi |
| Abstract: | We study Ramsey-optimal fiscal policy in an economy in which product varieties are the result of forward-looking investment decisions by firms. There are two main results. First, depending on the particular form of variety aggregation in preferences, firms' dividend payments may be either subsidized or taxed in the long run. This policy balances monopoly incentives for product creation with consumers' welfare benefit of product variety. In the most empirically relevant form of variety aggregation, socially efficient outcomes entail a substantial tax on dividend income, removing the incentive for over-accumulation of capital, which takes the form of variety. Second, optimal policy induces dramatically smaller, but efficient, fluctuations of both capital and labor markets than in a calibrated exogenous policy. Decentralization requires zero intertemporal distortions and constant static distortions over the cycle. The results relate to Ramsey theory, which we show by developing welfare-relevant concepts of efficiency that take into account product creation. |
| JEL: | E32 E62 H21 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17319&r=mac |
| By: | Kyle F. Herkenhoff; Lee E. Ohanian |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the abnormally slow recovery in the labor market during the Great Recession, and analyzes how mortgage modification policies contributed to delayed recovery. By making modifications means-tested by reducing mortgage payments based on a borrower's current income, these programs change the incentive for households to relocate from a relatively poor labor market to a better labor market. We find that modifications raise the unemployment rate by about 0.5 percentage points, and reduce output by about 1 percent, reflecting both lower employment and lower productivity, which is the result of individuals losing skills as unemployment duration is longer. |
| JEL: | E0 J0 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17313&r=mac |
| By: | Sarlin, Peter (BOFIT); Peltonen, Tuomas A. (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | The paper uses the Self-Organizing Map for mapping the state of financial stability and visualizing the sources of systemic risks on a two-dimensional plane as well as for predicting systemic financial crises. The Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM) enables a two-dimensional representation of a multidimensional financial stability space and thus allows disentangling the individual sources impacting on systemic risks. The SOFSM can be used to monitor macro-financial vulnerabilities by locating a country in the financial stability cycle: being it either in the pre-crisis, crisis, post-crisis or tranquil state. In addition, the SOFSM performs better than or equally well as a logit model in classifying in-sample data and predicting out-of-sample the global financial crisis that started in 2007. Model robustness is tested by varying the thresholds of the models, the policymaker’s preferences, and the forecasting horizon. |
| Keywords: | systemic financial crisis; systemic risk; self-organizing maps; visualisation; prediction; macroprudential supervision |
| JEL: | E44 E58 F01 F37 |
| Date: | 2011–08–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2011_018&r=mac |
| By: | Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Kamil, Herman; Villegas-Sanchez, Carolina |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence on the real effects of credit supply shocks utilizing a new firm-level database from six Latin American countries between 1990 to 2005. Holding creditworthiness constant through foreign currency debt exposure, we compare investment undertaken by domestic exporters to that of foreign-owned exporters, where the latter's exposure to the liquidity shock is lower. We find that foreign-owned exporters increase investment by 15 percentage points relative to domestic exporters only when the currency crisis occurs simultaneously with a banking crisis. These findings suggest that the key factor hindering investment during financial crises is the decline in credit supply. |
| Keywords: | bank lending; exports; foreign ownership; growth; short-term dollar debt; twin crisis |
| JEL: | E32 F15 F36 O16 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8543&r=mac |
| By: | Dean Baker |
| Abstract: | At the peak of both the stock and housing bubbles, there were extraordinary shifts in the statistical discrepancy between the national output and income accounts. The statistical discrepancy fell from its normal range of 0.5 – 1.0 percent of GDP to levels below -1.0 percent of GDP. The analysis in this paper suggests that this reversal was directly related to these bubbles, with the likely explanation that a portion of the capital gains from these bubbles being misclassified in national income accounts as ordinary income. If this is the case, then the drops in household saving during the bubbles and the subsequent rises following their collapse were even larger than the official data show. |
| Keywords: | GDP, savings rate, income accounts, capital gains |
| JEL: | E E2 E20 E21 H H2 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:epo:papers:2011-17&r=mac |
| By: | Athanasios Geromichalos; Ina Simonovska |
| Abstract: | We study optimal asset portfolio choice in a two-country search-theoretic model of monetary exchange. We allow assets not only to represent claims on future consumption, but also to serve as means of payment. Assuming foreign assets trade at a cost, we characterize equilibria in which different countries' assets arise as media of exchange in different types of trades. More frequent trading opportunities at home result in agents holding proportionately more domestic over foreign assets. Consequently, agents have larger claims to domestic over foreign consumption goods. Moreover, foreign assets turn over faster than home assets because the former have desirable liquidity properties, but unfavorable returns over time. Our mechanism offers an answer to a long-standing puzzle in international finance: a positive relationship between consumption and asset home bias, coupled with higher turnover rates of foreign over domestic assets. |
| JEL: | E44 F15 F36 G11 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17331&r=mac |
| By: | Kumiharu Shigehara; Paul Atkinson |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews key policy messages and warnings about developments in the run-up to the global financial and economic crisis that began in mid-2007 which are contained in the main publications of the IMF, the OECD and the BIS and discuss issues relevant to strengthening their surveillance activities for making appropriate policy recommendations and issuing warnings in order to prevent such crisis in the future. The review finds that the institutions did not recognize the need for monetary tightening in a timely way for either the US or the UK, two epicentres of the global crisis. While some concerns were expressed at early stages regarding financial market policies and developments, generally when risks seemed abstract or remote, warnings were too few, received too little emphasis in key editorial sections likely to attract attention and were rarely followed up. Important issues, notably the weak capital base and lack of resilience of the banking systems in the two countries, were missed almost entirely. In the light of this review, suggestions for improving surveillance are offered, relating to (1) strengthening analytical frameworks; (2) improving the current institutional context in which surveillance takes place; (3) staff and management issues; and (4) dissemination and communication. In addition, the need to re-design international frameworks for surveillance to integrate more fully new “major players” in the global economy and financial systems is briefly discussed.<P>Surveillance internationale : Les leçons de la crise financière et économique mondiale<BR>La présente étude passe en revue les principaux messages et avertissements qui ont paru dans les grandes publications du FMI, de l'OCDE et de la BRI avant le déclenchement de la crise financière et économique mondiale au milieu de 2007, et examine les améliorations qui pourraient être apportées sur plusieurs plans aux activités de surveillance de ces trois institutions, afin que leurs recommandations et mises en garde puissent prévenir une nouvelle crise de ce type dans l'avenir. S'agissant de la politique monétaire, il apparaît que les institutions en question ne se sont pas rendu compte à temps de la nécessité d'un resserrement, aussi bien pour les États-Unis que pour le Royaume-Uni, les deux épicentres de la crise mondiale. Des préoccupations se sont fait jour assez tôt concernant la régulation et l'évolution des marchés financiers, en général lorsque les risques semblaient abstraits ou éloignés, mais les avertissements ont été rares, ils n'ont pas été suffisamment mis en relief dans les éditoriaux où ils auraient pu attirer l'attention, et ils n'ont guère été suivis d'effet. Plusieurs questions importantes, notamment la faiblesse de la base de capital et le manque de résilience des systèmes bancaires dans les deux pays considérés, ont été pratiquement ignorées. A la lumière de ce bilan, plusieurs améliorations sont proposées concernant 1) les cadres analytiques de la surveillance ; 2) le contexte institutionnel ; 3) les questions de personnel et d'organisation ; et 4) la diffusion et la communication des informations. En outre, la nécessité de revoir les mécanismes internationaux de surveillance afin d'y faire une plus large place aux nouveaux “acteurs majeurs” de l'économie mondiale et des systèmes financiers est brièvement évoquée. |
| Keywords: | financial markets, OECD, United Kingdom, house prices, United States, monetary policy, bubbles, financial regulation, financial innovation, IMF, financial crisis, securitisation, BIS, prudential policy, structured products, surveillance, marchés financiers, OCDE, Royaume-Uni, États-Unis, politique monétaire, bulle, innovation financière, prix immobiliers, FMI, crise financière, titrisation, régulation financière, BRI, politique prudentielle, produits structurés, surveillance |
| JEL: | E44 E58 E65 F33 F34 G1 G2 N20 |
| Date: | 2011–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:860-en&r=mac |
| By: | Oliver D. Hart; Luigi Zingales |
| Abstract: | We study an economy where the lack of a simultaneous double coincidence of wants creates the need for a relatively safe asset (money). We show that, even in the absence of asymmetric information or an agency problem, the private provision of liquidity is inefficient. The reason is that liquidity affects prices and the welfare of others, and creators do not internalize this. This distortion is present even if we introduce lending and government money. To eliminate the inefficiency the government must restrict the creation of liquidity by the private sector. |
| JEL: | E41 E51 G21 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17299&r=mac |
| By: | Broner, Fernando; Didier, Tatiana; Erce, Aitor; Schmukler, Sergio L. |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the joint behavior of international capital flows by foreign and domestic agents -- gross capital flows -- over the business cycle and during financial crises. The authors show that gross capital flows are very large and volatile, especially relative to net capital flows. When foreigners invest in a country, domestic agents tend to invest abroad, and vice versa. Gross capital flows are also pro-cyclical, with foreigners investing more in the country and domestic agents investing more abroad during expansions. During crises, especially during severe ones, there is retrenchment, that is, a reduction in both capital inflows by foreigners and capital outflows by domestic agents. This evidence sheds light on the nature of shocks driving capital flows and helps discriminate among existing theories. The findings seem consistent with shocks that affect foreign and domestic agents asymmetrically, such as sovereign risk and asymmetric information. |
| Keywords: | Emerging Markets,Macroeconomic Management,Economic Theory&Research,Debt Markets,Capital Flows |
| Date: | 2011–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5768&r=mac |
| By: | Eduardo Lora; Andrew Powell; Pilar Tavella |
| Abstract: | There is widespread concern that recent increases in international food prices may have significant effects on domestic food prices and inflation. This note assesses the impact of the recent food price shock on food, non-food and consumer inflation in the countries of Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC). Vector Autoregressive Regressions (VARs) are estimated for each country to trace the effect of international food prices, the price of oil and the value of the US dollar on domestic prices. The results are then used to calculate the potential impact of higher food prices and to project the expected rise in domestic prices to the end of 2011 and beyond, given the actual increase in food prices until February 2011. It is concluded that, due to the food price surge, increases in inflation could exceed 5 percentage points in Bolivia, Dominican Republic, Guatemala and Honduras unless additional policy actions are taken. In some countries with flexible exchange rate systems, such as Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, currencies tend to appreciate as a response to higher food prices and as a result the impact on domestic prices is muted. However, there is no simple pattern of differences between floaters and fixers; the speed and extent of pass-through is quite heterogeneous and dependent on factors such as the importance of food in the overall inflation index and local policy measures. |
| JEL: | E37 F41 F47 |
| Date: | 2011–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:wpaper:4719&r=mac |
| By: | Marc Raffinot (LEDa, UMR DIAL-Paris-Dauphine); Baptiste Venet (LEDa, UMR DIAL-Paris-Dauphine) |
| Abstract: | (english) In this paper we use a simple standard overlapping-generation model to assess the impact of foreign aid. Because of deference to the elders, donors are not able to modify the sharing out of aid between the old and the young in the recipient economy. The model shows that, if aid is considered as a device intended to help attain the spontaneous steady state of the economy, it may lead to a rise or fall in savings, and hence in the growth rate of the economy, depending on a threshold share of aid accruing to elders. Alternately, if aid is intended to help the economy to reach its golden-rule steady state, the relevant level of aid increases with the share of aid accruing to elders, up to a certain threshold. If this share is higher than the threshold, the optimal level of aid is negative. _________________________________ (français) Nous utilisons un modèle à générations imbriquées pour montre que la répartition de l’aide entre jeunes et vieux peut avoir un impact sur l’efficacité de l’aide en termes d’épargne, de croissance et de bien-être. Les sociétés en développement sont généralement marquées par une « déférence pour les anciens » profondément ancrée dans la culture traditionnelle. Nous supposons que les donateurs sont incapables de manipuler cette part, et nous montrons que la part de l’aide qui revient aux vieux a un impact sur la croissance et le bien-être positif en dessous d’un certain seuil et négatif au-delà. |
| Keywords: | Developing Countries, Elders, Aid effectiveness, Overlapping Generations Models. |
| JEL: | E61 F35 F43 O11 O19 |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201103&r=mac |
| By: | Marcin Kacperczyk; Philipp Schnabl |
| Abstract: | A firm's termination generates bankruptcy costs. This may create incentives for a firm's owner to bail out a firm in bankruptcy and to curb the firm's risk taking outside bankruptcy. We analyze the role of such implicit guarantees in the context of financial institutions that sponsor money market mutual funds. Our identification strategy exploits a large, exogenous expansion in risk-taking opportunities of money market funds during the period of August 2007 to August 2008. We find that a fund's response to the expansion depends on its sponsor's ability to provide implicit guarantees: Funds sponsored by financial institutions with higher equity take on less risk than those sponsored by financial institutions with lower equity. Moreover, fund sponsors with higher equity are more likely to provide financial support to their funds during a market-wide run in September 2008. The difference in risk taking disappears once implicit guarantees by fund sponsors are replaced with an explicit government guarantee. Overall, our findings suggest that implicit guarantees may reduce, rather than increase, risk taking. |
| JEL: | E44 E5 G1 G11 G14 G2 G21 G32 G33 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17321&r=mac |
| By: | Paul van den Noord |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a stylised model in which either a savings glut or an exchange rate peg in emerging economies drives down the level of interest rates in advanced economies and, when it hits the zero-rate bound, produces a welfare loss. It shows that structural reform in the pursuit of better social protection and financial markets in the emerging economies reduces this negative welfare spillover. An extension of the model with the short-run dynamics of exchange-rate and capital movements shows that adverse asymmetric shocks can lead to a race to the bottom of interest rates. In that case the global coordination of monetary policies is welfare enhancing for both groups of economies. However, the coordinated equilibrium is unstable, which indicates that strong pre-commitment arrangements are required to maintain coordination. This disadvantage diminishes if structural reform is adopted to reduce the volatility in capital flows.<P>Les déséquilibres mondiaux, l'arrimage des taux de changes et les mouvements de capitaux : examen à la loupe<BR>Ce document présente un modèle simplifié dans lequel une surabondance de l’épargne ou un mécanisme d’arrimage des taux de change dans des économies émergentes fait baisser le niveau des taux d’intérêt dans les économies avancées et aboutit, lorsque l’on se heurte à la limite des taux nuls, à une perte de bien-être. Il montre que les réformes structurelles visant à améliorer la protection sociale et les marchés de capitaux dans les économies émergentes réduisent ces retombées négatives sur le bien-être. Un élargissement du modèle tenant compte de la dynamique de court terme des taux de change et des mouvements de capitaux montre que des chocs asymétriques négatifs peuvent déboucher sur une surenchère à la baisse des taux d’intérêt. Dans ce cas, une coordination mondiale des politiques monétaires améliore le bien-être des deux groupes d’économies. Toutefois, l’équilibre résultant de cette coordination est instable, ce qui indique la nécessité de solides engagements préalables visant à maintenir la coordination. Ce désavantage diminue en cas d’adoption de réformes structurelles permettant de réduire la volatilité des mouvements de capitaux. |
| Keywords: | exchange rates, capital flows, global imbalances, taux de change, flux de capitaux, déséquilibres mondiaux |
| JEL: | E52 F31 F59 |
| Date: | 2011–04–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:856-en&r=mac |
| By: | Anita Wölfl; Juan S. Mora-Sanguinetti |
| Abstract: | After steady employment growth since the 1990s, Spain has experienced the sharpest increase in unemployment among OECD countries during the crisis, amplified by structural problems of the labour market. Very high de facto severance payment of permanent contracts has resulted in a rigid dual market with adverse effects on unemployment and productivity. The collective wage bargaining system has hindered firms from adapting to macroeconomic shocks exacerbating their negative effects on the labour market. The recent labour market reform legislation is a positive step to reduce excessive protection of workers in permanent contracts, although some uncertainty remains on how courts will interpret it. It also makes it easier for firms to opt out from higher level collective agreements. The large drop-out rate from lower secondary education is an important factor explaining very high unemployment among young workers. Better access of young people to training is an effective tool to keep them out of a depressed labour market. Finally, the matching of people to jobs, notably through the public employment services, needs to be made more efficient, all the more so under currently tight fiscal constraints. Although the recent reform allows private for-profit firms to provide placement services, more needs to be done. Performance of regional public employment services should be benchmarked and incentives of unemployment benefit recipients to search for a job increased.<P>Réformer le marché du travail en Espagne<BR>Après avoir connu une croissance régulière de l’emploi durant les années 90, l’Espagne a accusé la plus forte hausse du chômage de tous les pays de l’OCDE pendant la crise, amplifiée par les problèmes structurels du marché du travail. Les indemnités de licenciement très élevées obtenues de facto par les titulaires de contrats permanents ont créé des rigidités et abouti à un dualisme du marché du travail qui a des effets négatifs sur l’emploi et la productivité. Le système de négociation collective des salaires a empêché les entreprises de s’adapter aux chocs macroéconomiques et donc d’en atténuer l’impact sur l’emploi. La législation de réforme du marché du travail devrait permettre de réduire la protection excessive dont bénéficie l’emploi permanent, mais certaines incertitudes subsistent quant à la façon dont ce texte sera interprété par les tribunaux. Ces dispositions permettent plus aisément aux entreprises de ne pas appliquer les conventions collectives de haut niveau. Le taux élevé d’abandon des études au premier cycle de l’enseignement secondaire explique pour beaucoup le très fort chômage qui sévit chez les jeunes. Élargir l’accès des jeunes à la formation serait un moyen efficace de les tenir à l’écart d’un marché du travail déprimé. Enfin, il y aurait lieu d’améliorer l’efficacité des activités de placement, notamment au travers des services publics de l’emploi, et ce d’autant plus compte tenue des contraintes budgétaires actuelles. La réforme récente autorise les entreprises à but lucratif à offrir des services de placement, mais il faut aller plus loin. Dans cette optique, il faudrait soumettre les services publics régionaux de l’emploi à des évaluations de performance et inciter davantage les chômeurs indemnisés à rechercher un emploi. |
| Keywords: | Spain, employment protection, unemployment benefits, collective bargaining system, continuous training, matching process, Espagne, protection de l'emploi, formation continue, système de négociation collective, appariement entre offre et demande de travail, prestations de chômage |
| JEL: | E24 E31 I2 J0 J2 J3 J5 J6 |
| Date: | 2011–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:845-en&r=mac |
| By: | Hart, Robert A. (University of Stirling); Roberts, J. Elizabeth (University of Stirling) |
| Abstract: | This paper makes use of the British New Earnings Survey Panel Dataset between 1976 and 2010. It consists of individual-level payroll data and comprises a random sample of 1% of the entire male and female labor force. About two-thirds of within- and between-company moves involve job re-grading (measured at 3-digit occupation level) while one-third of movers retain their job titles. We find that the real wages of both male and female workers who change job titles within companies are significantly more procyclical than job stayers. This lends support to the predicted procyclical real wage effects of the Reynolds-Reder-Hall job re-grading hypothesis. On the extensive margin, title changers and title retainers who move jobs between companies exhibit the same degrees of wage cyclicality and these are considerably greater than for job stayers. |
| Keywords: | real wage cyclicality, spot wages, job moves, job re-grading |
| JEL: | E32 J31 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5912&r=mac |
| By: | Yongsung Chang (University of Rochester); Andreas Hornstein (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond) |
| Abstract: | Many cases of successful economic development, such as South Korea, exhibit long periods of sustained capital accumulation rates. This empirical feature is at odds with the standard neoclassical growth model which predicts initially high and then declining capital accumulation rates. We show that minor modifications of the neoclassical model go a long way towards accounting for the transition dynamics of the South Korean economy. Our modifications recognize that (1) agriculture essentially does not use reproducible capital, and that during the transition period (2) the relative price of capital declines substantially, and (3) the nonfarm employment share increases substantially. |
| Keywords: | neoclassical growth model, transition dynamics, industrialization, price of capital, South Korea |
| JEL: | E13 E22 O11 O13 O14 O16 O4 O53 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:roc:rocher:565&r=mac |
| By: | Zhang, Zhichao (BOFIT); Shi, Nan (BOFIT); Zhang, Xiaoli (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | We build an optimising framework to analyse a class of economies that adopt an ECU-type basket currency while in transition to increased flexibility of the exchange rate regime. Instead of conventional basket pegging, such an economy uses an ECU-type currency index as a benchmark for monitoring and assessing exchange rate movements. This provides an anchoring device for the nations exchange rate regime and allows the home currencys exchange rate to fluctuate. Under the assumption that the central bank is chiefly interested in maintaining stability, the optimal structure of the basket currency is based on its contribution to minimizing the volatility of the countrys external account. A currency invariance index is applied to capture the effect of the countrys exit from exclusive linkage with the US dollar. The approach is illustrated by Chinese exchange rate policy. We find it advisable and viable for China to form a basket currency with a diversified portfolio of currencies. While the portfolios weighting scheme could favour the dollar, euro and Japanese yen, we show that the composition of the basket is open to a wide range of possibilities. Moreover, contrary to general fears, there is considerable potential for China to engage in currency diversification, which will not necessarily affect the dollars position. |
| Keywords: | basket currency; currency diversification; China |
| JEL: | E58 F31 P45 |
| Date: | 2011–08–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2011_019&r=mac |
| By: | Katsushi Imai; Raghav Gaiha; Ganesh Thapa; Samuel Kobina AnnimAditi Gupta; Aditi Gupta |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:man:sespap:1116&r=mac |
| By: | Jeff Biddle; Daniel S. Hamermesh |
| Abstract: | Using CPS data from 1979-2009 we examine how cyclical downturns and industry-specific demand shocks affect wage differentials between white non-Hispanic males and women, Hispanics and African-Americans. Women’s and Hispanics’ relative earnings are harmed by negative shocks, while the earnings disadvantage of African-Americans may drop with negative shocks. Negative shocks also appear to increase the earnings disadvantage of bad-looking workers. A theory of job search suggests two opposite-signed mechanisms that affect these wage differentials. It suggests greater absolute effects among job-movers, which is verified using the longitudinal component of the CPS. |
| JEL: | E29 J71 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17326&r=mac |
| By: | Hoffmann, Andreas; Schnabl, Gunther |
| Abstract: | Das Papier untersucht auf der Grundlage der monetären Überinvestitionstheorien von Wicksell (1898), Mises (1912) and Hayek (1929, 1935) das Scheitern von geld- und finanzpolitischen Regeln zur Kontrolle von übermäßigem Geldmengenwachstum und ausufernder Staatsverschuldung. Es zeigt asymmetrische Geld- und Finanzpolitiken in den großen Industrieländern auf, die zu einem Verfall der Geldmarktzinsen gegen Null und einem Anstieg der Staatsverschuldungen auf globale Rekordstände geführt haben. Das strukturelle Absinken des globalen Zinsniveaus wird als Ursache für globale Überinvestitions- bzw. Boom-und-Krisen-Zyklen gesehen, die zu einem Ausufern der Staatsverschuldung geführt haben. Zur Stabilisierung des langfristigen globalen Wachstums wird die Rückkehr zu symmetrischen Regeln in der Geld- und Finanzpolitik gefordert. -- |
| Keywords: | Regeln,Geldpolitik,Finanzpolitik,Asymmetrie,Boom-und-Krisen-Zyklen,Exit |
| JEL: | E52 E58 F42 E63 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:leiwps:95&r=mac |
| By: | Petar Vujanovic |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at the empirical determinates of foreign currency reserve holdings across a panel of around 130 countries between 1980 and 2008. The paper builds on the existing literature by adopting a panel error-correction model specification and by extending the sample to include the recent period that saw a continuing acceleration in the accumulation of reserves in many countries. The results of the analysis suggest that the levels of trade and domestic financial depth are robust determinates of the level of reserves in the long run, particularly over the past decade and a half. The estimations also find that changes in GDP, the exchange rate regime, exchange rate volatility, and financial openness can all have permanent one-off effects on the level of reserves. Furthermore, country fixed effects are found to be significant, suggesting that time-invariant country specific factors are important in explaining the variance in reserve holdings across countries. Nevertheless, several countries stick out in terms of holding reserves well in excess of that implied by these empirical results, above all in recent years. Among these countries, China and Japan are particularly notable, especially when the deviation from average behaviour is expressed in dollar terms.<P>Comprendre la récente accélération de l'accumulation de réserves internationales<BR>Ce document est consacré à l’étude des déterminants économétriques des réserves de change de 1980 à 2008 à partir d’un panel de quelque 130 pays. Il s’appuie sur les publications existantes en adoptant un modèle à correction d’erreurs sur données de panel et en élargissant l’échantillon de façon à couvrir la période récente qui a été marquée par une accélération continue de l’accumulation de réserves dans de nombreux pays. Les résultats de l’analyse tendent à montrer que le volume des échanges commerciaux et la profondeur du système financier national sont des déterminants robustes du volume des réserves sur le long terme, en particulier depuis une quinzaine d’années. Les estimations permettent aussi de constater que des changements en matière de PIB, de régime de change, d’instabilité des cours de change ou d’ouverture financière sont autant de facteurs ponctuels qui peuvent produire un effet permanent sur le volume des réserves. En outre, on observe des effets fixes significatifs spécifiques aux pays, ce qui suggère que des facteurs spécifiques à des pays et invariants dans le temps sont importants pour expliquer la variance des réserves de change entre différents pays. Néanmoins, plusieurs pays continuent à détenir des réserves très supérieures à ce qu’impliquent ces résultats économétriques, surtout ces dernières années. Parmi ces pays, on retiendra en particulier la Chine et le Japon, surtout lorsque l’on exprime en dollars l’écart que présentent ces pays avec le comportement moyen. |
| Keywords: | trade, current account, crisis, central banks, reserves, foreign currency, money supply, sudden stop, balance courante, banque centrale, crise, échanges commerciaux, réserves, changes, masse monétaire, arrêt brutal |
| JEL: | E44 E58 F21 F31 F36 F41 N10 O24 |
| Date: | 2011–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:866-en&r=mac |
| By: | Rafael Di Tella; Juan Dubra |
| Abstract: | We describe the evolution of selective aspects of punishment in the US over the period 1980-2004. We note that imprisonment increased around 1980, a period that coincides with the “Reagan revolution” in economic matters. We build an economic model where beliefs about economic opportunities and beliefs about punishment are correlated. We present three pieces of evidence (across countries, within the US and an experimental exercise) that are consistent with the model. |
| JEL: | E62 K14 P16 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17309&r=mac |
| By: | Christophe André |
| Abstract: | A well-functioning housing market is essential for economic prosperity and well-being. A combination of favourable economic and financial conditions and tight housing supply led to sharp increases in real house prices between the mid-1990s and end 2007, which spurred household consumption. While this boosted output growth, economic imbalances and financial weaknesses mounted, leaving the economy vulnerable to the global financial crisis. Current land use planning policy is excessively restrictive, making supply unresponsive to demand and contributing to creating housing shortages and reducing affordability. While additional supply in the private rental market provides an alternative to homeownership for a significant number of households, social housing waiting list numbers have increased rapidly over the past decade. A reform to replace top-down building targets with incentives for local communities to allow development is underway, but the outcomes are somewhat uncertain. Housing taxation is regressive and encourages excessive demand for housing. More effective taxation could help contain demand and stabilise the housing market. Relying more on long-term and diversified funding for mortgages would also improve the stability of the housing market.<P>Améliorer le fonctionnement du marché du logement au Royaume Uni<BR>Un marché du logement performant est indispensable à la prospérité économique et au bien-être. Des conditions économiques et financières favorables conjuguées à des tensions sur l’offre de logements ont entraîné une flambée des prix réels de l’immobilier résidentiel entre le milieu des années 90 et la fin de 2007, ce qui a dopé la consommation des ménages. Cela a stimulé la croissance de la production, mais les déséquilibres économiques et financiers ont pris de l’ampleur, rendant l’économie vulnérable à la crise financière mondiale. La politique actuelle d’aménagement du territoire est trop restrictive, ce qui a pour effet de rendre l’offre peu réactive à la demande, contribuant à créer des pénuries de logements et à réduire l’accessibilité financière à la propriété. Tandis qu’une offre supplémentaire sur le marché locatif privé constitue une alternative à l’accession pour un nombre substantiel de ménages, les listes d’attente dans le secteur du logement social se sont rapidement allongées durant la décennie écoulée. Une réforme est engagée pour remplacer les objectifs de construction déterminés de manière centralisée par des incitations octroyées aux collectivités locales pour qu’elles autorisent des projets immobiliers, mais les résultats sont assez incertains. La fiscalité du logement a un caractère régressif et encourage une demande de logements excessive. Une imposition plus efficace aiderait à contenir la demande et à stabiliser le marché du logement. Un recours accru à un financement à long-terme et diversifié des prêts hypothécaires renforcerait également la stabilité du marché du logement. |
| Keywords: | United Kingdom, construction, mortgage markets, housing policies, housing prices, housing markets, land-use planning, household saving, household wealth, property taxation, Royaume-Uni, prix des logements, construction, marchés hypothécaires, marché immobilier, politiques du logement, aménagement du territoire, épargne des ménages, patrimoine des ménages, fiscalité immobilière |
| JEL: | E21 G21 H24 L74 R21 R31 R38 R52 |
| Date: | 2011–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:867-en&r=mac |
| By: | Joscha Beckmann |
| Abstract: | Although the literature on purchasing power parity (PPP) is rich in controversy, the relative contribution of prices and nominal exchange rates to real exchange rate movements which restore PPP disequilibria has rarely been put under any close scrutiny. Using monthly data from 1973:01 to 2009:12 from the USA, UK, Germany, France and Japan, this paper as a fi rst step applies a cointegrated VAR framework to test for stationary real exchange rates and linear adjustments in prices and nominal exchange rates. As a second step, ESTR error correction models are fi tted to test whether nonlinear error correctional behaviour characterizes the data. The results clearly indicate that the nominal exchange rate is responsible for the nonlinear mean reverting behaviour in real exchange rates and also mainly drives overall adjustment. Applying dynamic stochastic simulations based on the estimated models, this study also confi rms recent results that the half-life times of real exchange rate shocks are signifi cantly smaller than the consensus benchmark of three to fi ve years. |
| Keywords: | Purchasing power parity; cointegration; nonlinear vector error correction |
| JEL: | E44 F31 G15 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:repape:0272&r=mac |
| By: | Marco Cozzi (Queen’s University) |
| Abstract: | This paper implements a simple Bayesian approach to quantitatively study the Hansen and Imrohoroglu (1992) economy, a calibrated GE model with uninsurable employment risk, designed to assess the optimal replacement rate for a public Unemployment Insurance scheme. The results of this sensitivity analysis are consistent with the original findings, but with several caveats. One novel result in particular is that the distribution of the optimal UI is bimodal. Depending on the calibrated parameters, the optimal UI is in one of two regimes: a very generous scheme with high replacement ratios, where insurance is mainly provided by the UI scheme, or one with low replacement ratios, where insurance is mainly achieved through self-insurance. Even in the absence of moral hazard, it is never optimal to provide full insurance. Moreover, for many plausible parameters’ configurations, the welfare maximizing replacement rate does not decrease with the level of MH. The qualitative patterns and quantitative findings are not altered substantially when considering an enlarged labor force, which includes the marginally attached workers. Finally, the parameters representing the hours worked, the leisure share in the households’ consumption bundle, and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution have a first order impact on the average welfare. The determination of the optimal UI scheme depends heavily on them. This finding suggests that extra caution should be paid when calibrating these parameters in similar environments. |
| Keywords: | Calibration methods, Unemployment Risk, Optimal Unemployment Insurance, Heterogeneous Agents, Incomplete Markets, Computable General Equilibrium, Monte Carlo |
| JEL: | E21 D52 D58 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1272&r=mac |
| By: | Calista Cheung |
| Abstract: | A considerable housing boom has been a key feature of persistently large saving-investment imbalances in New Zealand over the past decade. Wealth is concentrated to a greater extent in property compared to most other OECD countries, leaving households and the banking system heavily exposed to a correction in land and housing markets. Supply rigidities and tax incentives that bias savings decisions towards property investment have amplified the increase in house prices, widening wealth inequalities in the form of larger homes for those who can afford them, but deteriorating affordability for the rest of the population. Substantial distortions via tax planning have been evident in rental property markets. Although the 2010-11 budget introduced measures to reduce some of these distortions, further reforms are needed to remove the significant tax bias favouring housing. The economic downturn has increased financial pressures on the social housing sector, with a shortage of public dwellings in areas of high demand. Regional supply constraints reflect inefficient land-use policies and long delays arising from an overly complex urban planning system. The adoption of spatial planning frameworks is a positive step forward, but they should include pricing mechanisms for land and road use that are aligned with broader policy objectives. This Working Paper relates to the 2011 OECD Economic Review of New Zealand (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/NewZealand).<P>Mesures pour rééquilibrer les marchés du logement en Nouvelle-Zélande<BR>Au cours des dix dernières années, le boum spectaculaire du marché du logement a été l’une des principales caractéristiques des déséquilibres importants et persistants entre l’épargne et l’investissement en Nouvelle-Zélande. La richesse est beaucoup plus concentrée dans l’immobilier que dans la plupart des autres pays de l’OCDE, ce qui expose massivement les ménages et le système bancaire à un risque de correction du marché foncier et du marché du logement. Les rigidités du côté de l’offre et les mesures d’incitation fiscale qui influencent les décisions d’épargne au profit des investissements immobiliers ont amplifié la hausse des prix des logements, creusant les inégalités de richesse qui se matérialisent par des logements plus vastes pour ceux qui peuvent se les payer alors que l’accessibilité financière au logement se détériore pour le reste de la population. Des distorsions substantielles imputables à la fiscalité sont devenues visibles sur les marchés de l’immobilier locatif. Bien que le budget 2010-11 ait introduit des mesures pour réduire certaines de ces distorsions, de nouvelles réformes sont nécessaires pour supprimer les biais fiscaux significatifs qui favorisent le logement. Le ralentissement économique a accru les pressions financières sur le secteur du logement social, entraînant une pénurie de logements publics dans des zones où la demande est forte. Le caractère limité de l’offre régionale reflète des politiques d’aménagement du territoire inefficientes et des retards importants imputables à un système de planification urbaine exagérément complexe. L’adoption de cadres d’aménagement du territoire constitue un pas en avant positif, mais cet encadrement devrait inclure des mécanismes tarifaires pour l’aménagement du territoire et des infrastructures routières alignés sur des objectifs politiques plus larges. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’OCDE de la Nouvelle-Zélande 2011 (www.oecd.org/eco/etudes/Nouvelle-Zéland e). |
| Keywords: | New Zealand, property tax, housing taxation, housing wealth, housing policies, housing prices, urban planning, housing markets, land-use planning, household saving, capital gains tax, land prices, prix des logements, Nouvelle-Zélande, logement social, politique du logement, marché du logement, épargne des ménages, patrimoine des ménages, fiscalité de l’immobilier, impôt sur les plus-values, impôt sur la propriété immobilière, planification de l’occupation des sols, planification urbaine, prix du terrain |
| JEL: | E21 E32 H21 H23 H24 H71 R21 R31 R38 R52 |
| Date: | 2011–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:878-en&r=mac |
| By: | Quamrul H. Ashraf (Williams College); David N. Weil (Brown University); Joshua Wilde (University of South Florida) |
| Abstract: | We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates, data on demographics and natural resource income in developing countries, and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of an intervention that immediately reduces TFR by 1.0, using current Nigerian vital rates as a baseline. For a base case set of parameters, we find that an immediate decline in the TFR of 1.0 will raise output per capita by approximately 13.2 percent at a horizon of 20 years, and by 25.4 percent at a horizon of 50 years. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, Population size, Age structure, Child quality, Worker experience, Labor force participation, Capital accumulation, Natural resources, Income per capita |
| JEL: | E17 J11 J13 J18 J21 J22 J24 O11 O13 O55 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wil:wileco:2011-10&r=mac |
| By: | Quamrul H. Ashraf (Williams College); David N. Weil (Brown University); Joshua Wilde (University of South Florida) |
| Abstract: | We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates, data on demographics and natural resource income in developing countries, and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of an intervention that immediately reduces TFR by 1.0, using current Nigerian vital rates as a baseline. For a base case set of parameters, we find that an immediate decline in the TFR of 1.0 will raise output per capita by approximately 13.2 percent at a horizon of 20 years, and by 25.4 percent at a horizon of 50 years. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, Population size, Age structure, Child quality, Worker experience, Labor force participation, Capital accumulation, Natural resources, Income per capita |
| JEL: | E17 J11 J13 J18 J21 J22 J24 O11 O13 O55 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wil:wilcde:2011-07&r=mac |
| By: | Stephen A. Ross |
| Abstract: | We can only estimate the distribution of stock returns but we observe the distribution of risk neutral state prices. Risk neutral state prices are the product of risk aversion – the pricing kernel – and the natural probability distribution. The Recovery Theorem enables us to separate these and to determine the market’s forecast of returns and the market’s risk aversion from state prices alone. Among other things, this allows us to determine the pricing kernel, the market risk premium, the probability of a catastrophe, and to construct model free tests of the efficient market hypothesis. |
| JEL: | E1 G0 G11 G12 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17323&r=mac |
| By: | Monfort, A.; Renne, J-P. |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we present a general discrete-time affine framework aimed at jointly modeling yield curves associated with different debtors. The underlying fixed-income securities may differ in terms of credit quality and/or in terms of liquidity. The risk factors follow conditionally Gaussian processes, with drifts and variance-covariance matrices that are subject to regime shifts described by a Markov chain with (historical) non-homogenous transition probabilities. While flexible, the model remains tractable. In particular, bond prices are given by quasi-explicit formulas. Various numerical examples are proposed, including a sector-contagion model and credit-rating modeling. |
| Keywords: | credit risk, liquidity risk, term structure, affine model, regime switching, Car process. |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E47 G12 G24 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:340&r=mac |
| By: | Gene Amromin; Jennifer Huang; Clemens Sialm; Edward Zhong |
| Abstract: | We investigate the characteristics and the default behavior of households who take out complex mortgages. Unlike traditional fixed rate or adjustable rate mortgages, complex mortgages are not fully amortizing and enable households to postpone loan repayment. We find that complex mortgages are used by sophisticated households with high income levels and prime credit scores, in contrast to the low income population targeted by subprime mortgages. Complex mortgage borrowers have significantly higher delinquency rates than traditional mortgage borrowers even after controlling for leverage, payment resets, and other household and loan characteristics. The difference in the delinquency rates between complex and traditional borrowers increases with measures of financial sophistication and leverage, suggesting that complex borrowers are more strategic in their default decisions than traditional borrowers. |
| JEL: | E60 G10 H31 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17315&r=mac |
| By: | Nico Voigtländer; Hans-Joachim Voth |
| Abstract: | Europeans restricted their fertility long before the 'Demographic Transition.' By raising the marriage age of women and ensuring that a substantial proportion remained celibate, the "European Marriage Pattern" (EMP) reduced childbirths by up to 40% between the 14th and 18th century. In a Malthusian environment, this translated into lower population pressure, raising average wages significantly, which in turn laid the foundation for industrialization. We analyze the rise of this first socio-economic institution in history that limited fertility through delayed marriage. Our model emphasizes changes in agricultural production following the Black Death in 1348-50. The land-intensive production of meat, wool, and dairy (pastoral products) increased, while labor-intensive grain production declined. Women had a comparative advantage producing pastoral goods. They often worked as servants in husbandry, where they remained unmarried long after they had left the parental household. The emergence of EMP enabled Europe to shift from a high-fertility, low income to a low-fertility, high income Malthusian steady state. We demonstrate the importance of this effect in a calibration of our model and show why the same shock to population did not have similar consequences in China. |
| JEL: | E20 N13 N33 O14 O41 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17314&r=mac |