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on Macroeconomics |
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Issue of 2010‒07‒10
twenty-two papers chosen by Soumitra K Mallick Indian Institute of Social Welfare and Bussiness Management |
| By: | Luisa Lambertini (College of Management); Caterina Mendicino (Banco de Portugal); Maria Teresa Punzi (Banco de Portugal) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes housing market boom-bust cycles driven by changes in households’ expectations. We explore the role of expectations not only on productivity but on several other shocks that originate in the housing market, the credit market and the conduct of monetary policy. We f nd that, in the presence of nominal rigidities, expectations on both the conduct of monetary policy and future productivity can generate housing market boom-bust cycles in accordance with the empirical f ndings. Moreover, expectations of either a future reduction in the policy rate or a temporary increase in the central bank’s inf ation target that are not fulf lled generate a macroeconomic recession. Increased access to credit generates a boom-bust cycle in most variables only if it is expected to be reversed in the near future. |
| Keywords: | boom-bust cycles, credit frictions, housing market |
| JEL: | E32 E44 E52 |
| Date: | 2010–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:1021&r=mac |
| By: | Alessandro Flamini (Department of Economics, The University of Sheffield); Costas Milas |
| Abstract: | This paper studies optimal real-time monetary policy when the central bank takes the exogenous volatility of the output gap and inflation as proxy of the undistinguishable uncertainty on the exogenous disturbances and the parameters of its model. The paper shows that when the exogenous volatility surrounding a specific state variable increases, the optimal policy response to that variable should increase too, while the optimal response to the remaining state variables should attenuate or be unaffected. In this way the central bank moves preemptively to reduce the risk of large deviations of the economy from the steady state that would deteriorate the distribution forecasts of the output gap and inflation. When an empirical test is carried out on the US economy the model predictions tend to be consistent with the data. |
| Keywords: | Multiplicative uncertainty, Markov jump linear quadratic systems, optimal monetary policy |
| JEL: | C51 C52 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2010–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2010015&r=mac |
| By: | Ansgar Belke |
| Abstract: | We develop a roadmap of how the ECB should further reduce the volume of money (money supply) and roll back credit easing in order to prevent inflation. The exits should be step-by-step rather than one-off . Communicating about the exit strategy must be an integral part of the exit strategy. Price stability should take precedence in all decisions. Due to vagabonding global liquidity, there is a strong case for globally coordinating monetary exit strategies. Given unsurmountable practical problems of coordinating exit with asymmetric country interests, however, the ECB should go ahead – perhaps joint with some Far Eastern economies. Coordination of monetary and fiscal exit would undermine ECB independence and is also technically out of reach within the euro area. |
| Keywords: | Exit strategies; international policy coordination and transmission; open market operations; unorthodox monetary policy |
| JEL: | E52 E58 F42 E63 |
| Date: | 2010–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:repape:0183&r=mac |
| By: | Rene TAPSOBA (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International) |
| Abstract: | Based on panel data of 58 countries, of which 22 Inflation Targeters and 36 non Inflation Targeters, over the period 1980-2003, this paper highlights the effect of Inflation Targeting – IT- on Fiscal Discipline –FD-. We make four contributions to the literature. Firstly, by applying the 2SLS on the data, we estimate the effect of IT on central government FD as measured by Structural Primary Fiscal Balances. Secondly, we found that the effect of IT on FD takes place only on the Developing Countries sub-sample. Thirdly, the positive effect of IT on FD is stronger when the Central Bank –CB- adopts "Partial" IT rather than Full-Fledged IT –FFIT-. Fourthly, the positive effect of IT on FD is heterogeneous: it is conditional to the degree of CB independence, the level of financial deepening, the instability in the terms of trade and the length of exposure to IT -the effect is not immediate but cumulative over time-. Our results are robust to alternative specifications - using Propensity Score Matching Method, "System GMM" estimator, LAD estimator and applying 2SLS on annual data rather than triennial averages data- Our results could contribute importantly to the debate about the relevance of IT adoption by Developing Countries -due to their bad fiscal stances-.The results suggest that these countries could successfully adopt IT and improve their fiscal stances, provided that they adopt it gradually, establish flexible framework allowing them to react temporally to short-term external shocks and accompanies it with a greater independence of their CB and a deepening of their financial systems. |
| Keywords: | Inflation Targeting, Fiscal Discipline, Central Bank, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, Public Debt Monetization, Developing Countries. |
| JEL: | E63 E62 E58 E52 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1181&r=mac |
| By: | Angel Asensio (CEPN - Centre d'économie de l'Université de Paris Nord - CNRS : UMR7115 - Université Paris-Nord - Paris XIII) |
| Abstract: | Contrasting with the 1929 great crisis, authorities intervened forcefully in 2008 to stop the disintegration of the financial system. Governments and central banks then sought to revise the prudential regulation in depth. It would be optimistic, however, to believe that prudential measures, alone, could deliver full economic recovery, for the collapse of the 'state of confidence' has fed depressive forces and policy challenges which could hold for a while, even once the financial sector is made safe. On the one hand, the economic slowdown and the direct and indirect assistance provided by the governments to the private sectors are having a heavy impact on public finances, meanwhile, on the other hand, the massive amounts of money which artificially inflated the prices of housing and financial products could produce inflationary pressures in the post-crisis period, unless a new assets bubble is allowed for. Authorities could therefore be facing high unemployment in a damaged context of public deficits and inflationary pressures. The paper aims at discussing these new challenges. The inadequacy of inflation targets and fiscal orthodoxy in a depressed economy is emphasized, and the outlines of a Post Keynesian alternative policy are examined. |
| Keywords: | alternative macroeconomic policy; monetary policy; fiscal policy; economic crisis; public debt; inflationary pressures |
| Date: | 2010–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00496921_v1&r=mac |
| By: | Gomis-Porqueras, Pere; Kam, Timothy; Lee, Junsang |
| Abstract: | In this paper we develop a two-country global monetary economy where a monetary equilibrium exists because of fundamentaldecentralized trade frictions ? a Lagos-Wright search and matching friction. In the decentralized markets (DM), the terms of trade can be determined either by bargaining or by competitive price taking (baseline model). We show that the baseline model is capable of generating quite realistic real and nominal exchange rate volatility observed in the data, without relying on more ad-hoc sticky price assumptions commonly used in the international macroeconomics literature. The key mechanism lies in the role of search and matching frictions and a primitive technological assumption ? that capital is also a complementary input to production in the DM. This creates an internal propagation mechanism by modifying asset-pricing relations and relative price dynamics in the model. |
| Keywords: | Search-theoretic Money, Open Economy, Real Exchange Rate Puzzle |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E43 E44 |
| Date: | 2010–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:piecis:477&r=mac |
| By: | Chadwick C. Curtis; Nelson Mark |
| Abstract: | Can standard business-cycle methodology be applied to China? In this chapter, we address this question by examining the macroeconomic time series and identifying dimensions in which China differs from economies (such as Canada and the U.S.) that are typically the subject of business-cycle research. We show that naively applying the standard business-cycle tools to China is no more ridiculous than applying it to Canada, although the dimensions along which the model struggles is different. For China, the model cannot account for the low level of consumption (or high saving) as a proportion of income observed in the data. An examination of provincial level consumption data suggests that the absence of channels for intranational consumption risk sharing may be an important reason why the business-cycle model has trouble accounting for Chinese consumption and saving behavior. |
| JEL: | E21 E32 F41 |
| Date: | 2010–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16154&r=mac |
| By: | Hui Chen |
| Abstract: | I build a dynamic capital structure model that demonstrates how business-cycle variations in expected growth rates, economic uncertainty, and risk premia influence firms' financing and default policies. Countercyclical fluctuations in risk prices, default probabilities, and default losses arise endogenously through firms' responses to the macroeconomic conditions. These comovements generate large credit risk premia for investment grade firms, which helps address the "credit spread puzzle" and "under-leverage puzzle" in a unified framework. The model generates interesting dynamics for financing and defaults, including "credit contagion" and market timing of debt issuance. It also provides a novel procedure to estimate state-dependent default losses. |
| JEL: | E44 G12 G13 G32 G33 |
| Date: | 2010–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16151&r=mac |
| By: | Jan Hatzius; Peter Hooper; Frederic S. Mishkin; Kermit L. Schoenholtz; Mark W. Watson |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the link between financial conditions and economic activity. We first review existing measures, including both single indicators and composite financial conditions indexes (FCIs). We then build a new FCI that features three key innovations. First, besides interest rates and asset prices, it includes a broad range of quantitative and survey-based indicators. Second, our use of unbalanced panel estimation techniques results in a longer time series (back to 1970) than available for other indexes. Third, we control for past GDP growth and inflation and thus focus on the predictive power of financial conditions for future economic activity. During most of the past two decades for which comparisons are possible, including the last five years, our FCI shows a tighter link with future economic activity than existing indexes, although some of this undoubtedly reflects the fact that we selected the variables partly based on our observation of the recent financial crisis. As of the end of 2009, our FCI showed financial conditions at somewhat worse-than-normal levels. The main reason is that various quantitative credit measures (especially issuance of asset backed securities) remained unusually weak for an economy that had resumed expanding. Thus, our analysis is consistent with an ongoing modest drag from financial conditions on economic growth in 2010. |
| JEL: | E17 E44 E5 |
| Date: | 2010–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16150&r=mac |
| By: | Ian Martin |
| Abstract: | I extend the Epstein-Zin-lognormal consumption-based asset-pricing model to allow for general i.i.d. consumption growth. Information about the higher moments--equivalently, cumulants--of consumption growth is encoded in the cumulant-generating function. I apply the framework to economies with rare disasters, and argue that the importance of such disasters is a double-edged sword: parameters that govern the frequency and sizes of rare disasters are critically important for asset pricing, but extremely hard to calibrate. I show how to sidestep this issue by using observable asset prices to make inferences that are robust to the details of the underlying consumption process. |
| JEL: | E44 G10 |
| Date: | 2010–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16153&r=mac |
| By: | Philippe Bacchetta; Cédric Tille; Eric van Wincoop |
| Abstract: | Recent crises have seen very large spikes in asset price risk without dramatic shifts in fundamentals. We propose an explanation for these risk panics based on self-fulfilling shifts in risk made possible by a negative link between the current asset price and risk about the future asset price. This link implies that risk about tomorrow's asset price depends on uncertainty about risk tomorrow. This dynamic mapping of risk into itself gives rise to the possibility of multiple equilibria and self-fulfilling shifts in risk. We show that this can generate risk panics. The impact of the panic is larger when the shift from a low to a high risk equilibrium takes place in an environment of weak fundamentals. The sharp increase in risk leads to a large drop in the asset price, decreased leverage and reduced market liquidity. We show that the model can account well for the developments during the recent financial crisis. |
| JEL: | E44 G11 G12 |
| Date: | 2010–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16159&r=mac |
| By: | James D. Hamilton |
| Abstract: | This paper surveys efforts to automate the dating of business cycle turning points. Doing this on a real time, out-of-sample basis is a bigger challenge than many academics might presume due to factors such as data revisions and changes in economic relationships over time. The paper stresses the value of both simulated real-time analysis-- looking at what the inference of a proposed model would have been using data as they were actually released at the time-- and actual real-time analysis, in which a researcher stakes his or her reputation on publicly using the model to generate out-of-sample, real-time predictions. The immediate publication capabilities of the internet make the latter a realistic option for researchers today, and many are taking advantage of it. The paper reviews a number of approaches to dating business cycle turning points and emphasizes the fundamental trade-off between parsimony-- trying to keep the model as simple and robust as possible-- and making full use of available information. Different approaches have different advantages, and the paper concludes that there may be gains from combining the best features of several different approaches. |
| JEL: | E32 |
| Date: | 2010–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16162&r=mac |
| By: | David M. Williams |
| Abstract: | A stable, long run consumption equation is estimated for Australia using quarterly data from 1977(2) to 2008(2). The model incorporates non-property income, income expectations, uncertainty, disaggregated household wealth, demography and, importantly, a relaxation in household credit conditions attributable to financial liberalisation and innovation (FLIB). Over 1977-2008, the log consumption to income ratio rose by around 14 percentage points. The relaxation of households’ downpayment and collateral constraints together boosted the log consumption to income ratio by about 31 percentage points, given the rise in house prices. However, this was offset by around -24 percentage points because of increased indebtedness and -6 percentage points due to higher real interest rates. The remaining rise in the log consumption to income ratio is then attributed to rising optimism in household income expectations, rising illiquid financial wealth, to demographic changes and to short term factors. The indirect effects of FLIB in the model are powerful. Prior to FLIB, intertemporal consumption smoothing is difficult and housing capital gains are inaccessible: there is no “classical” housing wealth effect. Once credit markets are liberalised in the early 1980s however, there is a significant role for variable real interest rates, income expectations and housing collateral as determinants in the long run consumption equation. The estimated long run marginal propensities to consume are around 0.06 for housing assets (post-FLIB), 0.01 for illiquid financial assets and 0.20 for net liquid assets. |
| Keywords: | Consumption, Household wealth, Financial liberalisation |
| JEL: | E21 E01 E44 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:492&r=mac |
| By: | Gary A. Dymski |
| Abstract: | This would seem an opportune moment to reshape banking systems in the Americas. But any effort to rethink and improve banking must acknowledge three major barriers. The first is a crisis of vision: there has been too little consideration of what kind of banking system would work best for national economies in the Americas. The other two constraints are structural. Banking systems in Mexico and the rest of Latin America face a financial regulation trilemma, the logic and implications of which are similar to those of smaller nations’ macroeconomic policy trilemma. The ability of these nations to impose rules that would pull banking systems in the direction of being more socially productive and economically functional is constrained both by regional economic compacts (in the case of Mexico, NAFTA) and by having a large share of the domestic banking market operated by multinational banks. For the United States, the structural problem involves the huge divide between Wall Street megabanks and the remainder of the U.S. banking system. The ambitions, modes of operation, and economic effects of these two different elements of U.S. banking are quite different. The success, if not survival, of one element depends on the creation of a regulatory atmosphere and set of enabling federal government subsidies or supports that is inconsistent with the success, or survival, of the other element. |
| Keywords: | Banking; Financial Crisis; Trilemma; Wall Street; Mexico; United States; Financial Regulation; Megabanks; Regional Compacts; NAFTA |
| JEL: | E5 F3 G1 G2 O1 P5 |
| Date: | 2010–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_604&r=mac |
| By: | Andrew T. Young (Department of Economics, West Virginia University); Daniel Levy (Department of Economics, Bar-Ilan University) |
| Abstract: | We offer the first direct evidence of an implicit contract in a goods market. The evidence we offer comes from the market for Coca-Cola. We demonstrate that the Coca-Cola Company left a substantial amount of written evidence of its implicit contract with its consumers—a very explicit form of an implicit contract. The contract represented the promise of a five cent (nominal) price and adherence to the “Secret Formula”. In general, the implicit nature of such contracts makes observation difficult. To overcome this difficulty, we adopt a narrative approach. Based on the analysis of a large number of historical documents obtained from the Coca-Cola Archives and other sources, we offer evidence of the Coca-Cola Company both acknowledging and acting on this implicit contract. We also make another unique contribution by exploring quality as a margin of adjustment available to Coca-Cola. The implicit contract included a promise not only of a constant nominal price but also a constant quality (i.e., 6.5 oz. of the Secret Formula). During a period of over 70 years, we find evidence of only a single case of true quality change. By studying the margin of adjustment the Coca-Cola Company chose in response to changes in market conditions, we demonstrate that the perceived costs of breaking the implicit contract were large. We argue that one piece of direct evidence on the magnitude of these costs is the aftermath “New Coke’s” introduction in 1985. |
| Keywords: | Implicit Contract, Explicit Contract, Invisible Handshake, Customer Market, Long-Term Relationship, Price Rigidity, Nickel Coke, Coca-Cola |
| JEL: | E12 E31 L14 L16 L66 M30 N80 A14 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wvu:wpaper:10-07&r=mac |
| By: | Fernandes Ribeiro, Priscila; Pereira, Pedro L. Valls |
| Abstract: | The objective of this work is to describe the behavior of the economiccycle in Brazil through Markov processes which can jointly model the slopefactor of the yield curve, obtained by the estimation of the Nelson-SiegelDynamic Model by the Kalman filter and a proxy variable for economicperformance, providing some forecasting measure for economic cycles. |
| Date: | 2010–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:eesptd:259&r=mac |
| By: | Eric Tymoigne |
| Abstract: | Different frameworks of analysis lead to different conceptions of financial instability and financial fragility. On one side, the static approach conceptualizes financial instability as an unfortunate byproduct of capitalism that results from unpredictable random forces that no one can do anything about except prepare for through adequate loss reserves, capital, and liquidation buffers. On the other side, the evolutionary approach conceptualizes financial instability as something that the current economic system invariably brings upon itself through internal market and nonmarket forces, and that requires change in financial practices rather than merely good financial buffers. This paper compares the two approaches in order to lay the foundation for the empirical analysis developed within the evolutionary approach. The paper shows that, with the use of macroeconomic data, it is possible to detect financial fragility, especially Ponzi finance. The methodology is applied to residential housing in the U.S. household sector and is able to capture some of the trends that are known to be sources of economic difficulties. Notably, the paper finds that Ponzi finance was going on in the housing sector from at least 2004 to 2007, which concurs with other works based on more detailed data. |
| Keywords: | Financial Fragility; Financial Crisis; Financial Policy; Minsky |
| JEL: | E12 E32 |
| Date: | 2010–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_605&r=mac |
| By: | Jean-Paul Fitoussi (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques); Jean-Luc Gaffard (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques); Francesco Saraceno (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques) |
| Abstract: | Les années de préparation et d’installation de l’euro ont été des années de croissance faible ou médiocre dans les grands pays de la zone. Cette performance décevante est, souvent, attribuée aux défaillances des marchés de biens et du travail et, par suite, à l’insuffisante attention portée aux réformes structurelles touchant au fonctionnement de ces marchés. Dans cette perspective, la politique monétaire ne saurait être incriminée, pas plus que les règles du Pacte de stabilité. La crise financière, tout en conduisant à envisager de suspendre certaines règles contraignantes, ne ferait que confirmer la pertinence de la gestion des taux d’intérêt par la Banque Centrale Européenne qui se serait avérée beaucoup plus appropriée que celle qui a prévalu outre-Atlantique. Cet article propose une lecture sensiblement différente de la réalité en considérant que la faible croissance est la conséquence de politiques macroéconomiques restrictives plus que la résultante du refus de réformes structurelles qui furent nombreuses en cette période. Elle n’est pas liée à l’existence de l’euro qui ne pouvait que favoriser la croissance en évitant les turbulences monétaires. Elle tient à la nature du compromis politique qui a présidé à la mise en oeuvre de la monnaie unique. Celui-ci en imposant des critères de neutralité monétaire et budgétaire et en poussant à des réformes structurelles dont le véritable enjeu est de faire accepter une nouvelle norme de répartition des revenus, ne pouvait être que préjudiciable à la croissance. La refondation des politiques de croissance exige une révision de cette norme dont la crise financière peut fournir l’opportunité. |
| Keywords: | Growth, Norms, Macroeconomic Policies, Structural Reforms |
| JEL: | E5 E6 |
| Date: | 2010–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fce:doctra:1007&r=mac |
| By: | Juergen Jung (Department of Economics, Towson University); Chung Tran (Department of Economics, University of New South Wales) |
| Abstract: | We analyze whether the introduction of Health Savings Accounts (HSAs), which is a health insurance reform coupled with a capital tax reform, can reduce health care expenditures in the United States and increase the fraction of the population with health insurance. Unlike previous studies on HSAs, our analysis relies on a general equilibrium framework and therefore fully accounts for feedback effects from general equilibrium price changes. Our results from numerical simulations indicate that the introduction of HSAs increases the percentage of the working age population with health insurance in the long run but fails to control spending on health care. The outcome of a HSAs reform depends critically on the annual contribution limits to HSAs and the interplay of general equilibrium effects. Finally, the long-run tax revenue loss due to the introduction of HSAs is large and can amount to up to 5 percent of GDP. |
| Keywords: | Health saving accounts, health care reform, privatization of health care systems, health insurance, stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model with health. |
| JEL: | H51 I18 I38 |
| Date: | 2010–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tow:wpaper:2010-12&r=mac |
| By: | Ha, Joonkyung (Asian Development Bank Institute); Lee, Jong-Wha (Asian Development Bank Institute); Sumulong, Lea (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | The current account surplus of the Republic of Korea (henceforth Korea) increased significantly in the immediate recovery period after the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis. Since then the surplus has gradually diminished, and from 2006 to 2008, the current account was close to being balanced. Econometric analysis reveals that the effect of exchange rate changes on Korea's trade is not robust during non-crisis periods. Exchange rates only significantly affect trade when observations during crisis periods are included. This suggests that exchange rate adjustments alone will not solve the imbalance issue. Korea's external imbalances are not only caused by external factors; they also reflect internal and policy factors such as: (i) saving-investment imbalances; (ii) export-oriented policies; and (iii) the unbalanced structure of manufacturing and services. These internal imbalances result from domestic distortions and structural imbalances arising from market inefficiencies and public policies. These must be addressed to ensure balanced and sustained economic growth. |
| Keywords: | korea economic growth; korea external imbalances; korea trade |
| JEL: | E20 E60 F40 O10 O20 |
| Date: | 2010–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0224&r=mac |
| By: | Ronald Bachmann; Thomas K. Bauer; Peggy David |
| Abstract: | Economic conditions at the time of labour market entry can induce wage differentials between workers entering the labour market at different points in time. While the existence and persistence of these entry wage differentials are well documented, little is known about their interaction with employees’ mobility behaviour. This paper contributes to this research area by analyzing the interaction between job mobility and entry wage differentials using German administrative data. The results suggest that labour market entrants earning less than the average starting wage are more likely to change jobs, directly from employer to employer as well as indirectly via an unemployment spell. In addition they are more likely to change occupation. Moreover, job mobility tends to reduce the effects of labour market entry conditions, implying that job mobility operates as an adjustment mechanism that mitigates entry wage differentials. These results hold not only for high-skilled, but also for medium-skilled and unskilled workers. |
| Keywords: | Mobility; job-to-job; wages; labour market entry; initial conditions |
| JEL: | E24 J31 J62 J64 |
| Date: | 2010–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:repape:0188&r=mac |
| By: | Angel de la Fuente |
| Abstract: | I construct "homogeneous" series of salaried employment, employee compensation and total labor income for Spain and its regions covering the period 1955-2008. I also estimate labor's share in regional and national GVA and construct an indicator of the average cost of labor including both employees and non-salaried workers. |
| Keywords: | Regional accounts, Spain, labor share |
| JEL: | E01 R11 |
| Date: | 2010–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aub:autbar:837.10&r=mac |