nep-mac New Economics Papers
on Macroeconomics
Issue of 2009‒03‒28
78 papers chosen by
Soumitra K Mallick
Indian Institute of Social Welfare and Bussiness Management

  1. Inflation forecasting in the new EU member states. By Olga Arratibel; Christophe Kamps; Nadine Leiner-Killinger
  2. Opting out of the Great Inflation: German monetary policy after the break down of Bretton Woods. By Andreas Beyer; Vitor Gaspar; Christina Gerberding; Otmar Issing
  3. Monetary and Fiscal Rules in an Emerging Small Open Economy By Nicoletta Batini; Paul Levine; Joseph Pearlman
  4. Dynamics of the term structure of UK interest rates By Bianchi, Francesco; Mumtaz, Haroon; Surico, Paolo
  5. Determinants of Households' Inflation Expectations By Kozo Ueda
  6. The global dimension of inflation - evidence from factor-augmented Phillips curves. By Sandra Eickmeier; Katharina Moll
  7. Long Run Evidence on Money Growth and Inflation. By Luca Benati
  8. The Inflation-Unemployment Trade-off at Low Inflation By Pierpaolo Benigno; Luca Antonio Ricci
  9. When does Lumpy Factor Adjustment Matter for Aggregate Dynamics? By Stephan Fahr; Fang Yao
  10. Does Global Liquidity Matter for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area? By Helge Berger; Thomas Harjes
  11. What’s News in Business Cycles By Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie; Uribe, Martín
  12. Inflation Experiences in Latin America, 2007-2008 By Mark Weisbrot; David Rosnick
  13. Fiscal policy and default risk in emerging markets By Gabriel Cuadra; Juan M. Sanchez; Horacio Sapriza
  14. What lies beneath: what can disaggregated data tell us about the behaviour of prices? By Mumtaz, Haroon; Zabczyk, Pawel; Ellis, Colin
  15. The optimal rate of inflation with trending relative prices By Alexander L. Wolman
  16. An Investigation of Some Macro-Financial Linkages of Securitization By Mangal Goswami; Andreas Jobst; Xin Long
  17. New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers By Cogan, John F.; Cwik, Tobias; Taylor, John B; Wieland, Volker
  18. Optimal sticky prices under rational inattention. By Domenico Giannone; Michele Lenza; Lucrezia Reichlin
  19. The Role for Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy in Singapore By Leif Lybecker Eskesen
  20. Financial (In)stability, Supervision and Liquidity Injections: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach By de Walque, Gregory; Pierrard, Olivier; Rouabah, Abdelaziz
  21. Real wages over the business cycle: OECD evidence from the time and frequency domains. By Julián Messina; Chiara Strozzi; Jarkko Turunen
  22. Assessing long-term fiscal developments - a new approach. By António Afonso; Luca Agnello; Davide Furceri; Ricardo Sousa
  23. Why Do Central Banks Go Weak? By Nada Oulidi; Alain Ize
  24. On the International Dimension of Fiscal Policy By Benigno, Gianluca; De Paoli, Bianca
  25. Dedollarization in Liberia-Lessons from Cross-country Experience By Lodewyk Erasmus; Jules Leichter; Jeta Menkulasi
  26. On Impatience and Policy Effectiveness By Silvia Sgherri; Tamim Bayoumi
  27. How Large Will Be the Effect of China's Fiscal-Stimulus Package on Output and Employment? By Dong He; Zhiwei Zhang; Wenlang
  28. Do house price developments spill over across euro area countries? Evidence from a Global VAR. By Isabel Vansteenkiste; Paul Hiebert
  29. The macro-economics of repressed stagflation. Part 2: The crisis of 2009+ and a reduction of the working week By Colignatus, Thomas
  30. Financial Stability in Open Economies By Ippei Fujiwara; Yuki Teranishi
  31. What drives returns to euro area housing? Evidence from a dynamic dividend-discount model. By Paul Hiebert; Matthias Sydow
  32. Evaluation of the Diachronic Performance of the OECD Macroeconomic Forecasts for Greece By Dikaios Tserkezos
  33. Die Bedeutung monetärer Größen für die deutsche Wachstumsschwäche 1995-2005 By Jonas Dovern; Nils Jannsen; Joachim Scheide
  34. The Volatility Costs of Procyclical Lending Standards:An Assessment Using a DSGE Model By Silvia Sgherri; Bertrand Gruss
  35. Optimal sticky prices under rational inattention. By Bartosz Maćkowiak; Mirko Wiederholt
  36. Forecast evaluation of small nested model sets. By Kirstin Hubrich; Kenneth D. West
  37. The Equity Premium and the Business Cycle: the Role of Demand and Supply Shocks By Smith, Peter N; Sorensen, Steffen; Wickens, Michael R
  38. The Credibility of the Link from the Perspective of Modern Financial Theory By Lillian Cheung; Chi-Sang Tam
  39. Elasticity optimism By Jean Imbs; Isabelle Méjean
  40. Seasonality in revisions of macroeconomic data By Franses, Ph.H.B.F.; Segers, R.
  41. The Effect on the Swedish Real Economy of the Financial Crisis By Österholm, Pär
  42. International Trade and Aggregate Fluctuations in Granular Economies By Julian di Giovanni; Andrei A. Levchenko
  43. The role of fiscal transfers for regional economic convergence in Europe. By Cristina Checherita; Christiane Nickel; Philipp Rother
  44. The Determinants of Commercial Bank Profitability in Sub-Saharan Africa By Valentina Flamini; Calvin A. McDonald; Liliana Schumacher
  45. Investment Bank Welfare? The Implicit Bank Subsidies in the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) and the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) Created by the Federal Reserve Board By Dean Baker; Matthew Sherman
  46. CHINA'S OFFICIAL RATES AND BOND YIELDS By Fan, Longzhen; Johansson, Anders C.
  47. How Do Bank Lending Rates and the Supply of Loans React to Shifts in Loan Demand in the U.K.? By Johann Burgstaller; Johann Scharler
  48. Unemployment dynamics in the OECD By Michael Elsby; Bart Hobijn; Aysegul Sahin
  49. Effects of Macroeconomic Announcements on Stock Returns across Volatility Regimes By Henry Aray
  50. Why Isn't South Africa Growing Faster? A Comparative Approach By Luc Eyraud
  51. Liquidity (risk) concepts - definitions and interactions. By Kleopatra Nikolaou
  52. The Housing Crash Recession and the Case for a Third Stimulus By Dean Baker
  53. Lack of peaceful resolution with Israel: economic cost for Palestinians By Boer, P.M.C. de
  54. Asset Prices and Current Account Fluctuations in G7 Economies. By Marcel Fratzscher; Roland Straub
  55. Liquidity risk premia in unsecured interbank money markets. By Jens Eisenschmidt; Jens Tapking
  56. Budget 2009-10 Uttar Pradesh By Uttar Pradesh Government UP
  57. Bayesian near-boundary analysis in basic macroeconomic time series models By Pooter, M.D. de; Ravazzolo, F.; Segers, R.; Dijk, H.K. van
  58. Interest Rate Model in a Contingent Claim Framework By Giandomenico, Rossano
  59. Norwegian banks in a recession: Procyclical implications of Basel II By Henrik Andersen
  60. Are Capital Controls Effective in the 21st Century? The Recent Experience of Colombia By Herman Kamil; Benedict J. Clements
  61. Modeling regional house prices By Dijk, A. van; Franses, Ph.H.B.F.; Paap, R.; Dijk, D.J.C. van
  62. European Financial Market Integration : A Closer Look at Government Bonds in Eurozone Countries By Sebastian Weber
  63. Real Estate Prices and the Importance of Bequest Taxation By Giorgio Bellettini; Filippo Taddei
  64. The Volatility Curse: Revisiting the Paradox of Plenty By Frederick van der Ploeg; Steven Poelhekke
  65. Fluctuations in Overlapping Generations Economies By Mich Tvede
  66. Benford’s Law and Macroeconomic Data Quality By Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia; Gonzalo C. Pastor
  67. Back to square one: identification issues in DSGE models By Canova, Fabio; Sala, Luca
  69. Model selection for forecast combination By Franses, Ph.H.B.F.
  70. Outliers and judgemental adjustment of time series forecasts. By Franses, Ph.H.B.F.
  71. Funding Liquidity Risk: Definition and Measurement. By Mathias Drehmann; Kleopatra Nikolaou
  72. The International Diversification Puzzle when Goods Prices are Sticky: It's Really about Exchange-Rate Hedging, not Equity Portfolios By Charles Engel; Akito Matsumoto
  73. The Credibility of the Link from the Perspective of Modern Financial Theory By Hans Genberg; Cho-hoi Hui
  74. Econometric analysis of ship life cycles - are safety inspections effective? By Bijwaard, G.E.; Knapp, S.
  75. Current Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources By Irineu E. Carvalho Filho; Rudolfs Bems
  76. Regional Financial Spillovers Across Europe:A Global VAR Analysis By Silvia Sgherri; Alessandro Galesi
  77. The Macroeconomic Impact of Scaled-up Aid: The Case of Niger By Gonzalo Salinas; Abdikarim Farah; Emilio Sacerdoti
  78. Official Japanese Intervention in the JPY/USD Exchange Rate Market: Is It Effective and Through Which Channel Does It Work? By Rasmus Fatum

  1. By: Olga Arratibel (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Christophe Kamps (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Nadine Leiner-Killinger (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
    Abstract: To the best of our knowledge, our paper is the first systematic study of the predictive power of monetary aggregates for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of inflation in these countries as well as formal econometric evidence on the forecast performance of a large set of monetary and non-monetary indicators. The forecast evaluation results suggest that, as has been found for other countries before, it is difficult to find models that significantly outperform a simple benchmark, especially at short forecast horizons. Nevertheless, monetary indicators are found to contain useful information for predicting inflation at longer (3-year) horizons. JEL Classification: C53, E31, E37, E51, E52, E62, P24
    Keywords: Inflation forecasting, leading indicators, monetary policy, information content of money, fiscal policy, New EU Member States
    Date: 2009–02
  2. By: Andreas Beyer (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Vitor Gaspar (Banco de Portugal, Special Adviser, Av. Almirante Reis, 71 – 8°, 1150-012 Lisboa, Portugal.); Christina Gerberding (Deutsche Bundesbank, Monetary Policy and Analysis Division, Wilhelm-Epstein-Strasse 14, D-60431 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Otmar Issing (Centre for Financial Studies, Goethe University Frankfurt, Mertonstrasse 17-25, D-60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
    Abstract: During the turbulent 1970s and 1980s the Bundesbank established an outstanding reputation in the world of central banking. Germany achieved a high degree of domestic stability and provided safe haven for investors in times of turmoil in the international financial system. Eventually the Bundesbank provided the role model for the European Central Bank. Hence, we examine an episode of lasting importance in European monetary history. The purpose of this paper is to highlight how the Bundesbank monetary policy strategy contributed to this success. We analyze the strategy as it was conceived, communicated and refined by the Bundesbank itself. We propose a theoretical framework (following Söderström, 2005) where monetary targeting is interpreted, first and foremost, as a commitment device. In our setting, a monetary target helps anchoring inflation and inflation expectations. We derive an interest rate rule and show empirically that it approximates the way the Bundesbank conducted monetary policy over the period 1975-1998. We compare the Bundesbank's monetary policy rule with those of the FED and of the Bank of England. We find that the Bundesbank's policy reaction function was characterized by strong persistence of policy rates as well as a strong response to deviations of inflation from target and to the activity growth gap. In contrast, the response to the level of the output gap was not significant. In our empirical analysis we use real-time data, as available to policy-makers at the time. JEL Classification: E31, E32, E41, E52, E58.
    Keywords: Inflation, Price Stability, Monetary Policy, Monetary Targeting, Policy Rules.
    Date: 2009–03
  3. By: Nicoletta Batini; Paul Levine; Joseph Pearlman
    Abstract: We develop a optimal rules-based interpretation of the 'three pillars macroeconomic policy framework': a combination of a freely floating exchange rate, an explicit target for inflation, and a mechanism than ensures a stable government debt-GDP ratio around a specified long run. We show how such monetary-fiscal rules need to be adjusted to accommodate specific features of emerging market economies. The model takes the form of two-blocs, a DSGE emerging small open economy interacting with the rest of the world and features, in particular, financial frictions It is calibrated using Chile and US data. Alongside the optimal Ramsey policy benchmark, we model the three pillars as simple monetary and fiscal rules including and both domestic and CPI inflation targeting interest rate rules alongside a 'Structural Surplus Fiscal Rule' as followed recently in Chile. A comparison with a fixed exchange rate regime is made. We find that domestic inflation targeting is superior to partially or implicitly (through a CPI inflation target) or fully attempting to stabilizing the exchange rate. Financial frictions require fiscal policy to play a bigger role and lead to an increase in the costs associated with simple rules as opposed to the fully optimal policy.
    Keywords: Emerging markets , External shocks , Monetary policy , Interest rate policy , Fiscal policy , Economic models ,
    Date: 2009–02–06
  4. By: Bianchi, Francesco (Princeton University); Mumtaz, Haroon (Bank of England); Surico, Paolo (Bank of England)
    Abstract: This paper models the evolution of monetary policy, the term structure of interest rates and the UK economy across policy regimes. We model the interaction between the macroeconomy and the term structure using a time-varying VAR model augmented with the factors from the yield curve. Our results suggest that the level, slope and curvature factors display substantial time variation, with the level factor moving closely with measures of inflation expectations. Our estimates indicate a large decline in the volatility of both yield curve and macroeconomic variables around 1992, when the United Kingdom first adopted an inflation-targeting regime. During the inflation-targeting regime, monetary policy shocks have been more muted and inflation expectations have been lower than in the pre-1992 era. The link between the macroeconomy and the yield curve has also changed over time, with fluctuations in the level factor becoming less important for inflation after the Bank of England independence in 1997. Policy rates appear to have responded more systematically to inflation and unemployment in the current regime. We use our time-varying macro-finance model to revisit the evidence on the expectations hypothesis.
    Keywords: Term structure; time-varying VAR; Bayesian estimation
    JEL: E50 E58
    Date: 2009–03–20
  5. By: Kozo Ueda (Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Deputy Director and Economist, Bank of Japan (Email: kouzou.ueda
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the determinants of households' inflation expectations in Japan and the United States. We estimate a vector autoregression model in which the four endogenous variables are inflation expectations, inflation, the short-term nominal interest rate and the output gap, with energy prices and (fresh) food prices being exogenous. Short-term nonrecursive restrictions are imposed taking account of simultaneous codependence between realized inflation and expected inflation. We find, first, that responding not only to changes in energy prices and food prices but also to monetary policy shocks, inflation expectations adjust more quickly than does realized inflation. This explains why Japanese and US data indicate that inflation expectations lead realized inflation. Second, the effects of changes in energy prices and food prices on inflation and inflation expectations are large in the short run in Japan, while in the United States, they are not only large but also long lasting. Third, shocks to expectations occasionally fluctuate greatly, and can have self-fulfilling effects on realized inflation. The self-fulfilling property is more apparent in the United States than in Japan.
    Keywords: expected inflation, structured vector autoregression, monetary policy
    JEL: C32 E31 E52
    Date: 2009–03
  6. By: Sandra Eickmeier (Deutsche Bundesbank, Economic Research Center, Wilhelm-Epstein-Straße 14, 60431 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Katharina Moll (Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main, D-60054 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
    Abstract: We examine the global dimension of inflation in 24 OECD countries between 1980 and 2007 in a traditional Phillips curve framework. We decompose output gaps and changes in unit labor costs into common (or global) and idiosyncratic components using a factor analysis and introduce these components separately in the regression. Unlike previous studies, we allow global forces to affect inflation through (the common part of) domestic demand and supply conditions. Our most important result is that the common component of changes in unit labor costs has a notable impact of inflation. We also find evidence that movements in import price inflation affect CPI inflation while the impact of movements in the common component of the output gap is unclear. A counterfactual experiment illustrates that the common component of unit labor cost changes and non-commodity import price inflation have held down overall inflation in many countries in recent years whereas commodity import price inflation has only raised the short-run volatility of inflation. In analogy to the Phillips curves, we estimate monetary policy rules with common and idiosyncratic components of inflation and the output gap included separately. Central banks have indeed reacted to the global components. JEL Classification: E31, F41, C33, C50.
    Keywords: Inflation, globalization, Phillips curves, factor models, monetary policy rules.
    Date: 2009–02
  7. By: Luca Benati (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
    Abstract: Over the last two centuries, the cross-spectral coherence between either narrow or broad money growth and inflation at the frequency ω=0 has exhibited little variation–being, most of the time, close to one–in the U.S., the U.K., and several other countries, thus implying that the fraction of inflation’s long-run variation explained by long-run money growth has been very high and relatively stable. The cross-spectral gain at ω=0, on the other hand, has exhibited significant changes, being for long periods of time smaller than one. The unitary gain associated with the quantity theory of money appeared in correspondence with the inflationary outbursts associated with World War I and the Great Inflation–but not World War II–whereas following the disinflation of the early 1980s the gain dropped below one for all the countries and all the monetary aggregates I consider, with one single exception. I propose an interpretation for this pattern of variation based on the combination of systematic velocity shocks and infrequent inflationary outbursts. Based on estimated DSGE models, I show that velocity shocks cause, ceteris paribus, comparatively much larger decreases in the gain between money growth and inflation at ω=0 than in the coherence, thus implying that monetary regimes characterised by low and stable inflation exhibit a low gain, but a still comparatively high coherence. Infrequent inflationary outbursts, on the other hand, boost both the gain and coherence towards one, thus temporarily revealing the one-for-one correlation between money growth and inflation associated with the quantity theory of money, which would otherwise remain hidden in the data. JEL Classification: E30, E32.
    Keywords: Quantity theory of money, inflation, frequency domain, cross-spectral analysis, band-pass filtering, DSGE models, Bayesian estimation, trend inflation.
    Date: 2009–03
  8. By: Pierpaolo Benigno; Luca Antonio Ricci
    Abstract: Wage setters take into account the future consequences of their current wage choices in the presence of downward nominal wage rigidities. Several interesting implications arise. First, a closed-form solution for a long-run Phillips curve relates average unemployment to average wage inflation; the curve is virtually vertical for high inflation rates but becomes flatter as inflation declines. Second, macroeconomic volatility shifts the Phillips curve outward, implying that stabilization policies can play an important role in shaping the trade-off. Third, nominal wages tend to be endogenously rigid also upward, at low inflation. Fourth, when inflation decreases, volatility of unemployment increases whereas the volatility of inflation decreases: this implies a long-run trade-off also between the volatility of unemployment and that of wage inflation.
    Keywords: Wage policy , Inflation , Unemployment , Price adjustments , Economic models ,
    Date: 2009–03–11
  9. By: Stephan Fahr (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Fang Yao (Institute for Economic Theory, Humboldt University of Berlin, Spandauer Strasse 1, D-10178 Berlin, Germany.)
    Abstract: We analyze the dynamic effects of lumpy factor adjustments at the firm level onto the aggregate economy. We find that distinguishing between capital and labour as lumpy factors within the production function result in very different dynamics for aggregate output, investment and labour in an otherwise standard real business cycle model. Lumpy capital leaves the RBC dynamics mainly unchanged, while lumpy labour allows for persistence and an inner propagation within the model in form of hump-shaped impulse responses. In addition, when modeling lumpy adjustments on both investment and labour, the aggregate effects are even stronger. We investigate the mechanisms underlying these results and identify the elasticity of factor supply as the most important element in accounting for these differences. JEL Classification: E32, E22, E24.
    Keywords: Lumpy labor adjustment, Lumpy investment, Business cycles, Elasticity of supply.
    Date: 2009–03
  10. By: Helge Berger; Thomas Harjes
    Abstract: Global excess liquidity is sometimes believed to limit sovereign monetary policy even in large economies, including the euro area. There is much discussion about what constitutes global excess liquidity and our approach adjusts liquidity for longer-term interest rate and output effects. We find that especially excess liquidity in the U.S. leads developments in euro area liquidity. U.S. excess liquidity also enters consistently positive as a determinant of euro area inflation. There is some evidence that this result may be related to a weakening of the effectiveness of monetary policy in the euro area during times of excessive U.S. liquidity.
    Keywords: Excess liquidity , Europe , Euro Area , United States , Japan , Monetary policy , Interest rates , Inflation ,
    Date: 2009–01–28
  11. By: Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie; Uribe, Martín
    Abstract: In this paper, we perform a structural Bayesian estimation of the contribution of anticipated shocks to business cycles in the postwar United States. Our theoretical framework is a real-business-cycle model augmented with four real rigidities: investment adjustment costs, variable capacity utilization, habit formation in consumption, and habit formation in leisure. Business cycles are assumed to be driven by permanent and stationary neutral productivity shocks, permanent investment-specific shocks, and government spending shocks. Each of these driving forces is buffeted by four types of structural innovations: unanticipated innovations and innovations anticipated one, two, and three quarters in advance. We find that anticipated shocks account for more than two thirds of predicted aggregate fluctuations.
    Keywords: anticipated shocks; Bayesian estimation; sources of aggregate fluctuations
    JEL: C11 C51 E13 E32
    Date: 2009–03
  12. By: Mark Weisbrot; David Rosnick
    Abstract: This paper looks briefly at the recent inflation experiences of ten Latin American countries: Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Guatemala, the Dominican Republic, and Bolivia. The authors construct a core inflation index (excluding food and energy), and look at three-month changes in both headline and core inflation. The paper focuses on the increase in inflation from April 2007 to July 2008, driven by a surge in food and energy prices worldwide. These prices have since dropped considerably. The authors conclude that macroeconomic policy that does not take into account the temporary nature of these price shocks may result in an unnecessary slowing of growth, with reduced output and employment.
    Keywords: Latin America, Inflation
    JEL: E E3 E5 E6 O O54
    Date: 2009–02
  13. By: Gabriel Cuadra; Juan M. Sanchez; Horacio Sapriza
    Abstract: Emerging market economies typically exhibit a procyclical fiscal policy: public expenditures rise (fall) in economic expansions (recessions), whereas tax rates rise (fall) in bad (good) times. Additionally, the business cycle of these economies is characterized by countercyclical default risk. In this paper we develop a quantitative dynamic stochastic small open economy model with incomplete markets, endogenous fiscal policy and sovereign default where public expenditures and tax rates are optimally procyclical. The model also accounts for the dynamics of other key macroeconomic variables in emerging economies.
    Keywords: Business cycles ; Macroeconomics
    Date: 2009
  14. By: Mumtaz, Haroon (Bank of England); Zabczyk, Pawel (Bank of England); Ellis, Colin (Daiwa Securities SMBC Europe Ltd)
    Abstract: This paper uses a factor-augmented vector autoregression technique to examine the role that macroeconomic and sector-specific factors play in UK price fluctuations at the aggregate and disaggregated levels. Macroeconomic factors are less important for disaggregated prices than aggregate ones. There also appears to be significant aggregation bias - the persistence of aggregate inflation series is much higher than the underlying persistence across the range of disaggregated price series. Our results suggest that monetary policy affects relative prices in the short to medium term, and that the degree of competition within industries plays a role in determining pricing behaviour.
    Keywords: Inflation persistence; disaggregation; principal components
    JEL: C30 D40 E31 E52
    Date: 2009–03–20
  15. By: Alexander L. Wolman
    Abstract: The relative prices of different categories of consumption goods have been trending over time. Assuming they are exogenous with respect to monetary policy, these trends imply that monetary policy cannot stabilize the prices of all consumption categories. If prices are sticky, monetary policy then must trade off relative price distortions within different categories of consumption. Optimally, more weight should be placed on stabilizing goods and services prices that are less flexible. Calibrating a simple stickyprice model to U.S. data, we find that slight deflation is optimal, even absent transactions frictions leading to a demand for money. Optimality of deflation derives from the fact that relative prices have been trending up for services, whose nominal prices seem to be less flexible.
    Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Prices
    Date: 2009
  16. By: Mangal Goswami; Andreas Jobst; Xin Long
    Abstract: Policy-makers have attributed the scale of the credit crisis and its profound impact on money markets (as well as financial sector stability) to the fast rise of securitization and the way it has arguably complicated both the conduct of monetary policy and the effect of interest rate transmission to the real economy. In our study, we examine whether financial innovation, specifically through securitization, has altered the nature of some macro-financial linkages, often with considerable policy implications. We find that securitization activity in the United States (mature market) and South Africa (emerging market) has indeed dampened the interest rate elasticity of real output via the balance sheet channel (while decreasing the interest rate pass-through from policy rates to market rates). That being said, current reservations about securitization do not invalidate the fact that securitization activity helps cushion the immediate impact of interest rate shocks to loan origination, which might be particularly effective in EM countries where poorly developed capital markets provide few alternatives to bank lending.
    Keywords: Monetary policy , United States , South Africa , Securities markets , Money markets , Capital markets , Market interest rates , Emerging markets , Economic models , Cross country analysis ,
    Date: 2009–02–10
  17. By: Cogan, John F.; Cwik, Tobias; Taylor, John B; Wieland, Volker
    Abstract: Renewed interest in fiscal policy has increased the use of quantitative models to evaluate policy. Because of modeling uncertainty, it is essential that policy evaluations be robust to alternative assumptions. We find that models currently being used in practice to evaluate fiscal policy stimulus proposals are not robust. Government spending multipliers in an alternative empirically-estimated and widely-cited new Keynesian model are much smaller than in these old Keynesian models; the estimated stimulus is extremely small just when needed most, and GDP and employment effects are only one-sixth as large, with private sector employment impacts likely to be even smaller.
    Keywords: Fiscal Policy; Government Spending; Keynesian models; model uncertainty; Multiplier
    JEL: C52 E62
    Date: 2009–03
  18. By: Domenico Giannone (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Michele Lenza (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Lucrezia Reichlin (London Business School, Regent's Park, London NW1 4SA, United Kingdom.)
    Abstract: This paper shows that the EMU has not affected historical characteristics of member countries’ business cycles and their cross-correlations. Member countries which had similar levels of GDP per-capita in the seventies have also experienced similar business cycles since then and no significant change associated with the EMU can be detected. For the other countries, volatility has been historically higher and this has not changed in the last ten years. We also find that the aggregate euro area per-capita GDP growth since 1999 has been lower than what could have been predicted on the basis of historical experience and US observed developments. The gap between US and euro area GDP per capita level has been 30% on average since 1970 and there is no sign of catching up or of further widening. JEL Classification: E32, E33, C5, F2, F43.
    Keywords: Euro area, International Business Cycle, European Monetary Union, European integration.
    Date: 2009–02
  19. By: Leif Lybecker Eskesen
    Abstract: Singapore's policymakers have often used fiscal policy as a counter-cyclical tool. Empirical results based on a structural autoregression framework suggest that fiscal policy can be used for demand management, although the impact may be somewhat short lived. The short-lived impact could reflect a number of factors, including the absence of credit-constrained economic agents, a high propensity to save among households, monetary focus on price stability, and leakages due to economic openness. Notwithstanding, fiscal policy should still play a key stabilizing role in the current downturn given the downside risks to growth and the vast fiscal space.
    Keywords: Fiscal policy , Singapore , External shocks , Economic stabilization , Price stabilization , Cross country analysis , Economic models ,
    Date: 2009–01–21
  20. By: de Walque, Gregory; Pierrard, Olivier; Rouabah, Abdelaziz
    Abstract: We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with an heterogeneous banking sector. We introduce endogenous default probabilities for both firms and banks, and allow for bank regulation and liquidity injection into the interbank market. Our aim is to understand the interactions between the banking sector and the rest of the economy, as well as the importance of supervisory and monetary authorities to restore financial stability. The model is calibrated against real US data and used for simulations. We show that Basel regulation reduces the steady state but improves the resilience of the economy to shocks, and that moving from Basel I to Basel II is procyclical. We also show that liquidity injections relieve financial instability but have ambiguous effects on output fluctuations.
    Keywords: banking sector; central bank; default risk; DSGE; supervision
    JEL: E13 E20 G21 G28
    Date: 2009–03
  21. By: Julián Messina (University of Girona, Plaça Sant Domènec, 3, E-17071 Girona, Spain.); Chiara Strozzi (Università degli Studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia,Via Università 4, I - 41100 Modena, Italy.); Jarkko Turunen (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
    Abstract: We study differences in the adjustment of aggregate real wages in the manufacturing sector over the business cycle across OECD countries, combining results from different data and dynamic methods. Summary measures of cyclicality show genuine cross-country heterogeneity even after controlling for the impact of data and methods. We find that more open economies and countries with stronger unions tend to have less pro-cyclical (or more counter-cyclical) wages. We also find a positive correlation between the cyclicality of real wages and employment, suggesting that policy complementarities may influence the adjustment of both quantities and prices in the labour market. JEL Classification: E32, J30, C10.
    Keywords: real wages, business cycle, dynamic correlation, labour market institutions.
    Date: 2009–02
  22. By: António Afonso (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Luca Agnello (University of Palermo, Department of Economics, Viale delle Scienze, 90128 Palermo, Sicily, Italy.); Davide Furceri (OECD, 2, rue André Pascal, F-75775 Paris Cedex 16, France.); Ricardo Sousa (Economic Policies Research Unit (NIPE), University of Minho, Department of Economics, Campus of Gualtar, 4710-057 - Braga, Portugal.)
    Abstract: We use a new approach to assess long-term fiscal developments. By analyzing the time varying behaviour of the two components of government spending and revenue – responsiveness and persistence – we are able to infer about the sources of fiscal behaviour. Drawing on quarterly data we estimate recursively these components within a system of government revenue and spending equations using a Three-Stage Least Square method. In this way we track fiscal developments, i.e. possible fiscal deteriorations and/or improvements for eight European Union countries plus the US. Results suggest that positions have not significantly changed for Finland, France, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom and the US, whilst they have improved for Belgium, Italy, and the Netherlands. JEL Classification: E62, H50.
    Keywords: Fiscal Deterioration, Fiscal Sustainability.
    Date: 2009–03
  23. By: Nada Oulidi; Alain Ize
    Abstract: Determinants of central banks' profitability are studied using a statistical analysis of their balance sheets, country characteristics, and the macroeconomic and institutional environments in which they operate. Central banks at both tails of the distribution of profits generally operate in poorer countries with more troubled macroeconomic and institutional environments. For these central banks, profitability is strongly influenced by fiscal dominance and, to a lesser extent, by how actively central banks used their balance sheet for monetary policy purposes.
    Keywords: Central banks , Profits , Fiscal analysis , Cross country analysis , Fiscal management , Economic models , Bank soundness ,
    Date: 2009–01–23
  24. By: Benigno, Gianluca; De Paoli, Bianca
    Abstract: This paper analyses the international dimension of fiscal policy using a small open economy framework in which the government finances its spending by levying distortionary taxation and issuing non-state-contingent debt. The main finding of the paper is that, once the open economy aspect of the policy problem is considered, it is not optimal to smooth taxes following idiosyncratic shocks. Even when prices are flexible and inflation can costlessly act as a shock absorber to restore fiscal equilibrium, the presence of a terms of trade externality lead to movements in the tax rate. Also in contrast with the closed economy, the introduction of sticky prices, can reduce the optimal volatility of taxes.
    Keywords: fiscal policy; optimal policy; small open economy
    JEL: E62 E63 F41
    Date: 2009–03
  25. By: Lodewyk Erasmus; Jules Leichter; Jeta Menkulasi
    Abstract: Liberia's experience with a dual currency regime, with the U.S. dollar enjoying legal tender status, dates to its founding as a sovereign country in 1847. Following the end of the most recent episode of civil war in late-2003, the new government has expressed interest in strengthening the role of the Liberian dollar. Liberia, however, is heavily dollarized, with the U.S. dollar estimated to account for about 90 percent of money supply. Cross-country experience suggests that dollarization does not preclude monetary policy from achieving its primary objective of price stability, and that successful and lasting dedollarization may be difficult to achieve.
    Keywords: Dollarization , Liberia , Dual exchange rates , U.S. dollar , Liberian dollar , Money supply , Monetary policy , Price stabilization , Cross country analysis ,
    Date: 2009–03–11
  26. By: Silvia Sgherri; Tamim Bayoumi
    Abstract: An increasing body of evidence suggests that the behavior of the economy has changed in many fundamental ways over the last decades. In particular, greater financial deregulation, larger wealth accumulation, and better policies might have helped lower uncertainty about future income and lengthen private sectors' planning horizon. In an overlapping-generations model, in which individuals discount the future more rapidly than implied by the market rate of interest, we find indeed evidence of a falling degree of impatience, providing empirical support for this hypothesis. The degree of persistence of "windfall" shocks to disposable income also appears to have varied over time. Shifts of this kind are shown to have a key impact on the average marginal propensity to consume and on the size of policy multipliers.
    Keywords: Fiscal policy , Income distribution , Private sector , Interest rates , Monetary policy , Consumption , Economic models ,
    Date: 2009–01–28
  27. By: Dong He (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority); Zhiwei Zhang; Wenlang (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)
    Abstract: This paper studies the effects of the fiscal-stimulus package in Mainland China on its output and employment. Using the input-output table as the analytical framework, we argue that the aggregate effect on output and employment of a given amount of fiscal spending depends on the distribution of such spending across different economic sectors. We estimate that the announced fiscal spending of RMB2 trillion yuan in 2009 could lead to a direct increase in output of RMB1.7 trillion yuan, implying a fiscal multiplier of around 0.84 in the short-run, and could potentially generate 18 million to 20 million new jobs in non-farming sectors. We further argue that the size of the fiscal multiplier also depends on the cyclical conditions of the economy and the policy environment, which we simulate using a dynamic structural model. Model results show that the fiscal multiplier in the medium run is around 1.1 as government fiscal spending leads to higher household consumption and corporate investment, which will take time to fully materialise.
    Keywords: Fiscal policy, Input-output table, Multiplier, Employment coefficient
    JEL: E2 H5
    Date: 2009–03
  28. By: Isabel Vansteenkiste (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Paul Hiebert (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
    Abstract: This paper empirically assesses the prospects for house price spillovers in the euro area, where co-movement in house prices across countries may be particularly relevant given a general trend with monetary union toward increasing linkages in trade, financial markets, and general economic conditions. The application involves a Global VAR for three housing demand variables (real house prices, real per capita disposable income, and the real interest rate) on the basis of quarterly data for 10 euro area countries (Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland) over the period 1989-2007. The results suggest limited house price spillovers in the euro area, with evidence of some overshooting in the first 1-3 years after the shock, followed by a long run aggregate euro area impact of country-specific changes in real house prices related in part to the country's economic weight. This contrasts with the impacts of a shock to domestic long-term interest rates, with the latter causing a permanent shift in house prices after around 3 years. Underlying this aggregate development are rather heterogeneous house price spillovers at the country level, with a strong importance for economic weight in the euro area in governing their general magnitude, while geographic proximity appears to also play a role. JEL Classification: R21, R31, C32.
    Keywords: House price, Global VAR (GVAR), International linkages.
    Date: 2009–03
  29. By: Colignatus, Thomas
    Abstract: The current macro-economic crisis can be diagnosed as repressed stagflation bursting into the open. The Obama Administration and EU stimulus packages prevent economic collapse but do not tackle stagflation itself yet. Without proper measures, a protracted period of high unemployment or high inflation and continued instability can be expected. Instead, macro-economic theory can come at ease with deflation as a temporary state that is logically implied by the notion of price stability. What is crucial is to keep people in jobs. With proper tax measures the NAIRU is shifted to the proper position. The current situation seems to require a (temporary) reduction of the working week, for some areas even from 5 to 4 days.
    Keywords: financial crisis; economic crisis; stagflation; inflation; unemployment; Phillipscurve; taxes; working time reduction
    JEL: E0 A1 P16
    Date: 2009–03–20
  30. By: Ippei Fujiwara (Director, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: ippei.fujiwara; Yuki Teranishi (Associate Director, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: yuuki.teranishi
    Abstract: This paper investigates the implications for monetary policy of financial markets that are internationally integrated but have intrinsic frictions. When there is no other distortion than financial market imperfections in the form of staggered international loan contracts, financial stability, which here constitutes eliminating the inefficient fluctuations of loan premiums, is the optimal monetary policy in open economies, regardless of whether policy coordination is possible. Yet, the optimality of inward-looking monetary policy requires an extra condition, in addition to those included in previous studies on the optimal monetary policy in open economies. To make allocations between cooperative and noncooperative monetary policy coincide, the exchange rate risk must be perfectly covered by the banks. Otherwise, each central bank has an additional incentive to control the nominal exchange rate to favor firms in her own country by reducing the exchange rate risk.
    Keywords: optimal monetary policy, policy coordination, global banking, international staggered loan contracts
    JEL: E50 F41
    Date: 2009–03
  31. By: Paul Hiebert (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Matthias Sydow (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
    Abstract: We apply a dynamic dividend-discount model to analyse unexpected housing returns in a panel of eight euro area countries which together comprise 90% of euro area GDP. The application of this model allows for a decomposition of house price movements into movements in rent (cash-flow) and expected return news components. The empirical application of the model involves the estimation of a panel vector autoregressive model (VAR) for four variables –excess return to housing, rents, the real interest rate and real disposable per capita income– using quarterly data over the period 1985-2007. This empirical investigation yields two main findings. First, the bulk of the variability of house price movements in the panel of countries analysed can be attributed to movements in the rental yield. Indeed, perturbations to rents appear to result in a one-to-one analogous movement in house prices over the long term once controlling for changes in expected returns. Second, evidence from the dynamic profile of shocks along with the negative co-movement between changing rental yield expectations and changing expected returns on housing assets would suggest that euro area house prices overreact to news. JEL Classification: R21, C33, G12.
    Keywords: House price, housing rental yield, return decomposition, panel VAR estimation, cash flow news.
    Date: 2009–03
  32. By: Dikaios Tserkezos (Department of Economics, University of Crete, Greece)
    Abstract: A variety of standard forecasting accuracy criteria and one suggestion are applied to evaluate the OECD's macroeconomic forecasts for Greece for the aggregate demand and output, the GDP implicit price deflator, the investment, the imports and the exports of goods and services. Every year and half-year the OECD provides projections for these variables published in the OECD Economic Outlook. Because these projections are used extensively by governmental and nongovernmental organizations, it is useful to examine their accuracy. Among some ¡traditional¢ forecasting performance criteria another forecasting criterion is suggested in order to take into account the diachronic adjustment process between the forecasts supplied by OECD and the actual data the last 27 years. According to our results, irrespective of how accurate are the OECD¢s forecasts, there is certainly much room for further improvement. As predictors of direction the OECD's six-month ahead forecasts should be considered valuable; this cannot be said for forecasts which look ahead a year and 18 months.
    Keywords: OECD Forecasts Accuracy, Greek Economy, Diachronic Adjustment Speed, Distributed Lags model, Monte Carlo Experiments.
    JEL: E17 E37 F17 F47
    Date: 2009–03–19
  33. By: Jonas Dovern; Nils Jannsen; Joachim Scheide
    Abstract: Between 1995 and 2005, the German economy has experienced a phase of weak economic growth. We analyze whether this weak growth performance can be attributed to the stance of monetary conditions during that period. We show that the real effective exchange rate did have almost no dampening effects on growth. On the contrary, the introduction of the euro and the single monetary policy for the euro area seems to have contributed significantly to the low trend growth rate in Germany between 1999 and 2005
    Keywords: weak growth, monetary conditions, monetary policy, real exchange rate, EMU
    JEL: E32 E52 E58 F31
    Date: 2009–03
  34. By: Silvia Sgherri; Bertrand Gruss
    Abstract: The ongoing financial turmoil has triggered a lively debate on ways of containing systemic risk and lessening the likelihood of boom-and-bust episodes in credit markets. Particularly, it has been argued that banking regulation might attenuate procyclicality in lending standards by affecting the behavior of banks’ capital buffers. This paper uses a two-country DSGE model with financial frictions to illustrate how procyclicality in borrowing limits reinforces the “overreaction†of asset prices to shocks described by Aiyagari and Gertler (1999), and to quantify the stabilization gains from policies aimed at smoothing cyclical swings in credit conditions. Results suggest that, in financially constrained economies, the ensuing volatility reduction in equity prices, investment, and external imbalances would be sizable. In the presence of cross-border spillovers, gains would be even higher.
    Keywords: Business cycles , Borrowing , External shocks , Spillovers , Credit ceilings , Capital markets , Asset prices , Financial risk , Economic models ,
    Date: 2009–03–11
  35. By: Bartosz Maćkowiak (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Mirko Wiederholt (Northwestern University, 633 Clark Street, Evanston, IL 60208, USA.)
    Abstract: This paper presents a model in which price setting firms decide what to pay attention to, subject to a constraint on information flow. When idiosyncratic conditions are more variable or more important than aggregate conditions, firms pay more attention to idiosyncratic conditions than to aggregate conditions. When we calibrate the model to match the large average absolute size of price changes observed in micro data, prices react fast and by large amounts to idiosyncratic shocks, but prices react only slowly and by small amounts to nominal shocks. Nominal shocks have strong and persistent real effects. We use the model to investigate how the optimal allocation of attention and the dynamics of prices depend on the firms’ environment. JEL Classification: E3, E5, D8.
    Keywords: rational inattention, sticky prices, real effects of nominal shocks.
    Date: 2009–02
  36. By: Kirstin Hubrich (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Kenneth D. West (University of Wisconsin, Madison, Department of Economics,  1180 Observatory Drive,  Madison, WI 53706, USA.)
    Abstract: We propose two new procedures for comparing the mean squared prediction error (MSPE) of a benchmark model to the MSPEs of a small set of alternative models that nest the benchmark. Our procedures compare the benchmark to all the alternative models simultaneously rather than sequentially, and do not require reestimation of models as part of a bootstrap procedure. Both procedures adjust MSPE differences in accordance with Clark and West (2007); one procedure then examines the maximum t-statistic, the other computes a chi-squared statistic. Our simulations examine the proposed procedures and two existing procedures that do not adjust the MSPE differences: a chi-squared statistic, and White’s (2000) reality check. In these simulations, the two statistics that adjust MSPE differences have most accurate size, and the procedure that looks at the maximum t-statistic has best power. We illustrate, our procedures by comparing forecasts of different models for U.S. inflation. JEL Classification: C32, C53, E37.
    Keywords: Out-of-sample, prediction, testing, multiple model comparisons, inflation forecasting.
    Date: 2009–03
  37. By: Smith, Peter N; Sorensen, Steffen; Wickens, Michael R
    Abstract: This paper explores the effects of the US business cycle on US stock market returns through an analysis of the equity risk premium. We propose a new methodology based on the SDF approach to asset pricing that allows us to uncover the different effects of aggregate demand and supply shocks. We find that negative shocks are more important that positive shocks, and that supply shocks have a much greater impact than demand shocks.
    Keywords: business cycles; demand and supply shocks; equity premium; stock returns
    JEL: C32 C51 E44 G12
    Date: 2009–03
  38. By: Lillian Cheung (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority); Chi-Sang Tam (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)
    Abstract: Widespread financial distress typically arises from the unwinding of financial imbalances that build up disguised by benign economic conditions. This paper studies whether credit is a pertinent indicator of future equity price booms, and thus provides a signal for potential financial instability. Our analysis shows that excess credit does increase the probability of an equity price boom ahead. We argue that a policy response worthy of consideration would be a strengthening of the system-wide focus of the prudential framework coupled with monetary policy rules that take into account occasional development of financial imbalances to prevent potentially significant financial strains from developing. To this end, greater co-operation between monetary and prudential authorities is important, not just in managing crises, but also in preventing their emergence.
    Keywords: financial stability; monetary stability; equity price booms and busts; excess credit
    JEL: E51 E52 E58
    Date: 2009–02
  39. By: Jean Imbs (HEC, Lausanne - Department of Economics, Center for Economic Research - CEPR, Swiss Finance Institut - Swiss Finance Institut); Isabelle Méjean (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS : UMR7176 - Polytechnique - X)
    Abstract: Estimates of the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign varieties are small in macroeconomic data, and substantially larger in disaggregated studies. This may be an artifact of heterogeneity. We use disaggregated multilateral trade data to structurally identify elasticities of substitution in US goods. We spell out a partial equilibrium model to aggregate them adequately at the country level. We compare aggregate elasticities that impose equality across sectors, to estimates allowing for heterogeneity. The former are similar in value to conventional macroeconomic estimates; but they are more than twice larger -up to 7- with heterogeneity. The parameter is central to calibrated models in most of international economics. We discuss the difference our corrected estimate makes in various areas of international economics, including the dynamics of external balances, the international transmission of shocks, international portfolio choice and optimal monetary policy.
    Keywords: Trade Elasticities, Aggregation, Calibration, Global Imbalances, International Transmission, International Portfolio, Monetary Policy.
    Date: 2009–02
  40. By: Franses, Ph.H.B.F.; Segers, R. (Erasmus Econometric Institute)
    Abstract: We analyze five vintages of eighteen quarterly macroeconomic variables for the Netherlands and we focus on the degree of deterministic seasonality in these series. We document that the data show most such deterministic seasonality for their first release vintage and for the last available vintage. In between vintages show a variety of seasonal patterns. We show that seasonal patterns in later vintages can hardly be predicted by those in earlier vintages. The consequences of these findings for the interpretation and modeling of macroeconomic data are discussed.
    Keywords: seasonality;real-time data
    Date: 2008–04–14
  41. By: Österholm, Pär (National Institute of Economic Research)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of the financial crisis on the Swedish real economy. In order to do this, an index which describes the financial conditions of the Swedish economy is developed. The index indicates that domestic Swedish financial conditions have deteriorated substan-tially during 2008 and are now at the highest level since the crisis of the early 1990’s. A Bayesian VAR model with both US and Swedish variables is used to assess the quantitative effects of the financial crisis on Swedish real GDP growth. Results suggest that the Swedish economy will grow substantially slower in the next couple of years due to the financial crisis.
    Keywords: GDP growth; Bayesian VAR
    JEL: E37 E44
    Date: 2009–02–28
  42. By: Julian di Giovanni (International Monetary Fund); Andrei A. Levchenko (University of Michigan and International Monetary Fund)
    Abstract: This paper proposes a new channel through which international trade affects macroeconomic volatility. We study a multi-country model with heterogeneous firms that are subject to idiosyncratic firm-specific shocks. When the distribution of firm size follows a power law with exponent sufficiently close to -1, the idiosyncratic shocks to large Þrms have an impact on aggregate volatility. Opening to trade increases the importance of large Þrms to the economy, thus raising macroeconomic volatility. We next explore the quantitative properties of the model calibrated to data for the 50 largest economies in the world. Our simulation exercise shows that the contribution of trade to aggregate ßuctuations depends strongly on country size: in an economy such as the U.S., that accounts for one-third of world GDP, international trade increases volatility by about 3.5%. By contrast, trade increases aggregate volatility by some 30% in a small open economy, such as Belgium or Poland. The model performs well in matching the elasticity of macroeconomic volatility with respect to country size observed in cross-country data.
    Keywords: Macroeconomic Volatility, Firm-SpeciÞc Idiosyncratic Shocks, Large Firms, International Trade
    JEL: F12 F15 F41
    Date: 2009–02
  43. By: Cristina Checherita (George Mason University, School of Public Policy, 3401 Fairfax Drive, MS 3B1, Arlington, VA 22201, USA.); Christiane Nickel (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Philipp Rother (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
    Abstract: This paper provides evidence on the role of net fiscal transfers to households and EU structural funds for per-capita output convergence across a large sample of European regions during the period 1995-2005. We find that net fiscal transfers, while achieving regional redistribution, seem to impede output growth and promote an "immiserising convergence" - output growth rates in poor receiving regions decline by less than in rich paying regions. EU structural and cohesion funds spent during 1994-1999 had a positive, but slight, impact on future economic growth, mainly through the human development component. JEL Classification: E62, R11, R23.
    Keywords: Fiscal policy, convergence, regional economic growth, regional migration.
    Date: 2009–03
  44. By: Valentina Flamini; Calvin A. McDonald; Liliana Schumacher
    Abstract: Bank profits are high in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) compared to other regions. This paper uses a sample of 389 banks in 41 SSA countries to study the determinants of bank profitability. We find that apart from credit risk, higher returns on assets are associated with larger bank size, activity diversification, and private ownership. Bank returns are affected by macroeconomic variables, suggesting that macroeconomic policies that promote low inflation and stable output growth does boost credit expansion. The results also indicate moderate persistence in profitability. Causation in the Granger sense from returns on assets to capital occurs with a considerable lag, implying that high returns are not immediately retained in the form of equity increases. Thus, the paper gives some support to a policy of imposing higher capital requirements in the region in order to strengthen financial stability.
    Keywords: Commercial banks , Africa , Profits , Profit margins , Economic policy , Financial stability , Economic models , Time series , Cross country analysis ,
    Date: 2009–01–28
  45. By: Dean Baker; Matthew Sherman
    Abstract: This study produces calculations of the amount of money being dispersed by the government to the 16 primary dealers and investment banks who qualify to borrow through the special lending facilities created in the last year by the Federal Reserve Board under the assumption that each borrows in proportion to its assets. The study then uses Fed data on the interest rate charged for loans from these lending facilities to calculate the potential subsidy in this lending. The report calls attention to the fact that few details have been given about the specific loan amounts, recipients, or collateral posted.
    JEL: G G2 G24 G28 H H2 H25 E E5 E58
    Date: 2009–03
  46. By: Fan, Longzhen (School of Management, Fudan University); Johansson, Anders C. (China Economic Research Center)
    Abstract: Recent research shows that bond yields are influenced by monetary policy decisions. To learn how this works in an interest rate market that differs significantly from that of the U.S. and Europe, we model Chinese bond yields using the one-year deposit rate as a state variable. We also add the difference between the one-year interest rate and the one-year deposit rate as a factor. The model is developed in an affine framework and closed-form solutions are obtained. It is tested empirically and the results show that the new model characterizes the changing shape of the yield curve well. Incorporating the benchmark rate into the model thus helps us to match Chinese bond yields.
    Keywords: China; deposit rate; bond yields; jump process; affine model
    JEL: E43 E44 E52 E58
    Date: 2009–03–01
  47. By: Johann Burgstaller; Johann Scharler
    Abstract: This paper examines the pass-through from the market interest to the rate charged on bank loans using aggregate data for the U.K. Thereby, we explicitly disentangle credit supply and demand and allow the interest rate charged on loans to depend on the volume of loans. We find that, although banks adjust the lending rate to some extent, they largely accommodate shifts in demand. Overall, our results are consistent with the idea that banks provide insurance against liquidity shocks.
    Keywords: Interest Rate Pass-Through, Relationship Banking
    JEL: E43 G21
    Date: 2009–03
  48. By: Michael Elsby; Bart Hobijn; Aysegul Sahin
    Abstract: We provide a set of comparable estimates for the rates of inflow to and outflow from unemployment for 14 OECD economies using publicly available data. We then devise a method to decompose changes in unemployment into contributions accounted for by changes in inflow and outflow rates for cases where unemployment deviates from its flow steady state, as it does in many countries. Our decomposition reveals that fluctuations in both inflow and outflow rates contribute substantially to unemployment variation within countries. For Anglo-Saxon economies we find approximately a 20:80 inflow/outflow split to unemployment variation, while for Continental European and Nordic countries, we observe much closer to a 50:50 split. Using the estimated flow rates we compute gross worker flows into and out of unemployment. In all economies we observe that increases in inflows lead increases in unemployment, whereas outflows lag a ramp up in unemployment.
    Keywords: Unemployment
    Date: 2009
  49. By: Henry Aray (Department of Economic Theory and Economic History, University of Granada.)
    Abstract: Based on a simple Markov regime switching model, this article presents evidence on the effects of macroeconomic announcements on individual stocks returns. The model specification allows two regimes to be distinguished: one with high volatility and the other with low volatility. Considering the level of significance at 5%, the response of stock returns to macroeconomic announcements is much stronger in the low volatility regime. However, the effects of the Fama-French factors on individual stock returns is unambiguously significant in both regimes.
    Keywords: Markov Switching Model, Macroeconomic announcements, Stock Returns.
    JEL: E44 G14
    Date: 2008–12–30
  50. By: Luc Eyraud
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to examine factors that have constrained South Africa's growth since the end of apartheid by comparing its GDP components and its saving and investment performance with those of 10 faster-growing countries. The study finds that sluggish investment has undermined growth since 1996 and that the underinvestment is in part explained by limited saving. Thus, over the last decade, interactions between investment, saving, and production may have perpetuated slow growth in South Africa.
    Keywords: Economic growth , South Africa , Gross domestic product , Savings , Private savings , Investment , Labor productivity , Cross country analysis , Economic models ,
    Date: 2009–02–10
  51. By: Kleopatra Nikolaou (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
    Abstract: We discuss the notion of liquidity and liquidity risk within the financial system. We distinguish between three different liquidity types, central bank liquidity, funding and market liquidity and their relevant risks. In order to understand the workings of financial system liquidity, as well as the role of the central bank, we bring together relevant literature from different areas and review liquidity linkages among these three types in normal and turbulent times. We stress that the root of liquidity risk lies in information asymmetries and the existence of incomplete markets. The role of central bank liquidity can be important in managing a liquidity crisis, yet it is not a panacea. It can act as an immediate but temporary buffer to liquidity shocks, thereby allowing time for supervision and regulation to confront the causes of liquidity risk. JEL Classification: G10, G20.
    Keywords: liquidity, risk, central bank, LLR.
    Date: 2009–02
  52. By: Dean Baker
    Abstract: This paper makes the case for a third stimulus package to in the face of economic indicators signaling that the economy is in a deeper downturn than was expected based on previous projections. Specifically, the report calls for an employer tax-credit for extending health care coverage and another per worker employer tax credit for increasing paid time off from work. The author also makes the case for a housing policy centered on the stabilization of prices in non-bubble and deflated markets rather than applying the same efforts on markets that remain at bubble inflated levels. Finally, the paper argues that the dollar must be allowed to fall in order to adjust trade imbalances that are compounding the U.S. economic crisis caused by the collapse of the housing market.
    Keywords: housing bubble, economic stimulus, fiscal stimulus, recession, dollar policy
    JEL: O51 R R2 R21 E E2 E21 E27 E24 E3 E32 E E5 E58 E6 E61 E62 E63 E66 H H2 H5
    Date: 2009–03
  53. By: Boer, P.M.C. de (Erasmus Econometric Institute)
    Abstract: We propose to estimate the economic cost for Palestine and for Palestinian residents due to the lack of peaceful resolution with Israel. Thereto we make use of the consensus estimates of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) of real growth rates of economic variables and of the nominal national accounts for Palestine over the period 1994-2006. We identify four periods: 1994-1999 with high real growth rates of gross domestic product (GDP) and of gross national income (GNI); 2000-2002 with a strong decline; 2003-2005 with a modest growth; and 2006 with a renewed decline. We derive the real national accounts (prices1999) for the end years: 1999, 2002 and 2005. It follows that over 2000-2002 the real GDP declined by 27.5%; GNI by almost one third; but that real gross disposable income (GDI) “only†declined by 11.3%; and that over 2000-2005 the declines were 13.8% (GDP) ; about 20%(GNI); and 2.9% (GDI), respectively. Consequently, in 2005, the year preceding the renewed isolation of Palestine, real GDP, GNI and GDI were still below their 1999 level. Based on the modest growth scenario of IMF and WB (3% real growth and 3% price increase) we estimate that over the period 2000-2002 the cost for Palestine, measured in terms of nominal GNI, was equal to the GNI of 1999 (5.5 billion US$), and over 2000-2005 to two-and-a-half times the 1999 GNI. Based on the same growth scenario, we estimate the loss for a Palestinian resident, measured in terms of nominal GDI per capita, to be 30% of the 1999 level by the end of 2002 and 25% by the end of 2005.
    Keywords: economic cost;macro-economic indicators;Palestine
    Date: 2008–11–10
  54. By: Marcel Fratzscher (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Roland Straub (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
    Abstract: The paper analyses the effect of equity price shocks on current account positions for the G7 industrialized countries in 1974-2007. It uses a Bayesian VAR with sign restrictions for the identification of asset price shocks and to test empirically for their effect on current accounts. Such shocks are found to exert a sizeable effect, with a 10 percent equity price increase for instance in the United States relative to the rest of the world worsening the US trade balance by 0.9 percentage points after 16 quarters. However, the response of the trade balance to equity price shocks varies substantially across countries. The evidence suggests that the channels accounting for this hetero-geneity function both through wealth effects on private consumption and to some extent through the real exchange rate of countries. JEL Classification: E2, F32, F40, G1.
    Keywords: asset prices, current account, identification, Bayesian VAR, financial markets, industrialized economies.
    Date: 2009–02
  55. By: Jens Eisenschmidt (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Jens Tapking (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
    Abstract: Unsecured interbank money market rates such as the Euribor increased strongly with the start of the financial market turbulences in August 2007. There is clear evidence that these rates reached levels that cannot be explained alone by higher credit risk. This article presents this evidence and provides a theoretical explanation which refers to the funding liquidity risk of lenders in unsecured term money markets. JEL Classification: G01, G10, G21.
    Keywords: Liquidity premium, interbank money markets, unsecured lending, 2007/2008 financial market turmoil.
    Date: 2009–03
  56. By: Uttar Pradesh Government UP
    Abstract: Budget speech by Lalji Varma
    Keywords: budget, Uttar Pradesh, 2009-10, 2007-08
    Date: 2009
  57. By: Pooter, M.D. de; Ravazzolo, F.; Segers, R.; Dijk, H.K. van (Erasmus Econometric Institute)
    Abstract: Several lessons learnt from a Bayesian analysis of basic macroeconomic time series models are presented for the situation where some model parameters have substantial posterior probability near the boundary of the parameter region. This feature refers to near-instability within dynamic models, to forecasting with near-random walk models and to clustering of several economic series in a small number of groups within a data panel. Two canonical models are used: a linear regression model with autocorrelation and a simple variance components model. Several well-known time series models like unit root and error correction models and further state space and panel data models are shown to be simple generalizations of these two canonical models for the purpose of posterior inference. A Bayesian model averaging procedure is presented in order to deal with models with substantial probability both near and at the boundary of the parameter region. Analytical, graphical and empirical results using U.S. macroeconomic data, in particular on GDP growth, are presented.
    Keywords: Gibbs sampler;MCMC;autocorrelation;nonstationarity;reduced rank models;state space models;error correction models;random effects panel data models;Bayesian model averaging
    Date: 2008–08–25
  58. By: Giandomenico, Rossano
    Abstract: The paper analyses default free zero coupon bonds in a contingent claim framework such that it determines the yield curve in absence of arbitrage opportunity.
    Keywords: Contingent Claim; Asian Option
    JEL: G12 G13
    Date: 2009–01–20
  59. By: Henrik Andersen (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))
    Abstract: While the new capital adequacy framework, Basel II, aims to make the banks’ capital requirements more sensitive to the underlying risk of the assets, it may also introduce an additional source of procyclicality in the banking sector. A growing share of the literature has assessed the potential cyclicality of Basel II. However, only parts of the banks’ assets have been considered. In addition, the cyclicality of the capital positions is usually left out of the calculations. This paper applies the stress testing framework of Norges Bank to analyse the cyclicality of capital positions and the cyclicality of Basel II capital requirements for the entire bank portfolio of Norwegian banks. We find a substantial increase in the calculated Basel II capital requirements in a recession scenario for the Norwegian economy. We also find a negative co-movement between capital positions and Basel II capital requirements. Hence, our analysis demonstrates that Basel II may introduce an additional source of procyclicality.
    Keywords: Basel II, procyclicality, capital positions
    JEL: E32 G21 G28 G33
    Date: 2009–03–13
  60. By: Herman Kamil; Benedict J. Clements
    Abstract: This paper assesses the effects of capital controls imposed in Colombia in 2007 on capital flows and exchange rate dynamics. The results suggest that the controls were successful in reducing external borrowing, but had no statistically significant impact on the volume of non- FDI flows as a whole. We find no evidence that restrictions to capital mobility moderated the appreciation of Colombia's currency, or increased the degree of independence of monetary policy. We also find that controls have significantly increased the volatility of the exchange rate. Additional research is needed to assess the effects of capital controls on financial stability.
    Keywords: Capital controls , Colombia , Capital flows , Exchange rate appreciation , Exchange rate developments , Emerging markets , Economic models ,
    Date: 2009–02–19
  61. By: Dijk, A. van; Franses, Ph.H.B.F.; Paap, R.; Dijk, D.J.C. van (Erasmus Econometric Institute)
    Abstract: We develop a parsimonious panel model for quarterly regional house prices, for which both the cross-section and the time series dimension is large. The model allows for stochastic trends, cointegration, cross-equation correlations and, most importantly, latent-class clustering of regions. Class membership is fully data-driven and based on (i) average growth rates of house prices, (ii) the propagation of shocks to house prices across regions, also known as the ripple effect, and (iii) the relationship of house prices with economic growth and other variables. Applying the model to quarterly data for the Netherlands, we find convincing evidence for the existence of two distinct clusters of regions, with pronounced differences in house price dynamics.
    Keywords: cross-section dependence;cointegration;ripple effect
    Date: 2008–03–18
  62. By: Sebastian Weber
    Abstract: The European Union made a number of steps not least of them the introduction of a common currency to foster the integration of the European financial markets. A number of papers have tried to gauge the degree of integration for various financial markets looking at the convergence of interest rates. A common finding is that government bond markets are quite well integrated. In this paper stochastic Kernel density estimates are used to take a closer look at the dynamics that drive the process of interest rate convergence. The main finding is that countries with large initial deviations from the mean interest rate do indeed converge. Interestingly the candidates least suspected namely the countries initially with interest rates at the mean level show a pattern of slight divergence.
    Keywords: Financial markets integration, euro area government bonds, stochastic Kernel-density estimates
    JEL: C23 G15
    Date: 2009
  63. By: Giorgio Bellettini; Filippo Taddei
    Abstract: Taxation of bequests and donations is an important determinant of real estate prices. We show that, ceteris paribus, a decrease in taxes on inter vivos donations and bequests brings about an increase in real estate prices. We provide a general equilibrium rationalization in the context of OLG economies featuring intergenerational altruism. This has relevant policy implications. We test the predictions of our theory employing a unique policy shock: the abolition of bequest and donation taxation that took place in Italy in 2001. Considering this policy shift provides the first evidence that a drastic reduction in bequest and donation taxation significantly increased real estate prices. Our estimates suggest that the 2001 abolition of taxation on bequests and donations alone led to an appreciation of residential real estate in excess of 10%.
    JEL: E60 E65 H24
    Date: 2009
  64. By: Frederick van der Ploeg; Steven Poelhekke
    Abstract: The volatility of unanticipated output growth in income per capita is detrimental to long-run development, controlling for initial income per capita, population growth, human capital, investment, openness and natural resource dependence. This effect is significant and robust over a wide range of specifications. We unravel the effects of volatility by opening the black box and conditioning the variance of growth shocks on several country characteristics. Natural resource dependence, physical and institutional barriers to trade and associated policy shocks increase volatility sharply and harm growth through this indirect channel. The robust indirect effect of natural resources through volatility trumps any direct effects on economic development, even if natural resource dependence is measured net of extraction costs. Financial development appears to mitigate the harmful causes of volatility. Our panel data estimation confirms our cross-country results, but we also offer evidence that well developed financial systems amplify the effect of short-term terms-of-trade volatility on macroeconomic volatility. 
    Keywords: volatility; growth; natural resource curse; financial development.
    Date: 2009–03
  65. By: Mich Tvede (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen)
    Abstract: In the present paper stationary pure-exchange overlapping generations economies with l goods per date and m consumers per generation are considered. It is shown that for an open and dense set of utility functions there exist endowment vectors such that n-cycles exist for n ≤ l +1 and l ≤ m. The approach to existence of endogenous fluctuations is basic in the sense that the prime ingredients are the implicit function theorem and linear algebra. Moreover the approach is applied to show that for an open and dense set of utility functions there exist endowment vectors such that sunspot equilibria, where prices at every date only depends on the state at that date, exist.
    Keywords: cycles; overlapping generations economies; sunspot equilibria
    JEL: D51 E32
    Date: 2009–03
  66. By: Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia; Gonzalo C. Pastor
    Abstract: This paper examines the usefulness of testing the conformity of macroeconomic data with Benford's law as indicator of data quality. Most of the macroeconomic data series tested conform with Benford's law. However, questions emerge on the reliability of such tests as indicators of data quality once conformity with Benford's law is contrasted with the data quality ratings included in the data module of the Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes (data ROSCs). Furthermore, the analysis shows that rejection of Benford's law may be unrelated to the quality of statistics, and instead may result from marked structural shifts in the data series. Hence, nonconformity with Benford's law should not be interpreted as a reliable indication of poor quality in macroeconomic data.
    Keywords: Data analysis , Data quality assessment framework , Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes , International Financial Statistics , Gross domestic product , Economic models , Cross country analysis , Transparency , Statistical annexes ,
    Date: 2009–01–23
  67. By: Canova, Fabio; Sala, Luca
    Abstract: We investigate identification issues in DSGE models and their consequences for parameter estimation and model evaluation when the objective function measures the distance between estimated and model-based impulse responses. Observational equivalence, partial and weak identification problems are widespread and typically produced by an ill-behaved mapping between the structural parameters and the coefficients of the solution. Different objective functions affect identification and small samples interact with parameters identification. Diagnostics to detect identification deficiencies are provided and applied to a widely used model.
    Keywords: DSGE models; Identification; Impulse Responses; small samples.
    JEL: C10 C52 E32 E50
    Date: 2009–03
  68. By: Mauricio Rodriguez
    Abstract: En este artículo se introducen los salarios de eficiencia como microfundamento para explicar la existencia de desempleo involuntario permanente y la rigidez de los salarios a la baja. Los salarios de efciencia se incorporan en un modelo de crecimiento económico de generaciones traslapadas, en el cual se puede alcanzar un equilibrio de largo plazo en el que existe desempleo involuntario permanente, explicado por la rigidez de los salarios.
    Date: 2009–03–01
  69. By: Franses, Ph.H.B.F. (Erasmus Econometric Institute)
    Abstract: In this paper it is advocated to select a model only if it significantly contributes to the accuracy of a combined forecast. Using hold-out-data forecasts of individual models and of the combined forecast, a useful test for equal forecast accuracy can be designed. An illustration for real-time forecasts for GDP in the Netherlands shows its ease of use.
    Keywords: forecast combination;model selection
    Date: 2008–06–01
  70. By: Franses, Ph.H.B.F. (Erasmus Econometric Institute)
    Abstract: This paper links judgemental adjustment of model-based forecasts with the potential presence of exceptional observations in time series. Specific attention is given to current and future additive outliers, as these require most consideration. A brief illustration to a quarterly real GDP series demonstrates various issues. The main focus of the paper is on various testable propositions, which should facilitate the creation and the evaluation of judgemental adjustment of time series forecasts.
    Date: 2008–03–18
  71. By: Mathias Drehmann (Bank for International Settlements, Centralbahnplatz 2, CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland.); Kleopatra Nikolaou (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
    Abstract: In this paper we propose definitions of funding liquidity and funding liquidity risk and present a simple, yet intuitive, measure of funding liquidity risk based on data from open market operations. Our empirical analysis uses a unique data set of 135 main refinancing operation auctions conducted at the ECB between June 2005 and December 2007. We find that our proxies for funding liquidity risk are typically stable and low, with occasional spikes, especially during the recent turmoil. We are also able to document downward spirals between funding liquidity risk and market liquidity. JEL Classification: E58, G21.
    Keywords: funding liquidity, liquidity risk, bidding data, money market auctions, interbank markets.
    Date: 2009–03
  72. By: Charles Engel; Akito Matsumoto
    Abstract: This paper develops a two-country monetary DSGE model in which households choose a portfolio of home and foreign equities, and a forward position in foreign exchange. Some nominal goods prices are sticky. Trade in these assets achieves the same allocations as trade in a complete set of nominal state-contingent claims in our linearized model. When there is a high degree of price stickiness, we show that not much equity diversification is required to replicate the complete-markets equilibrium when agents are able to hedge foreign exchange risk sufficiently. Moreover, temporarily sticky nominal goods prices can have large effects on equity portfolios even when dividend processes are very persistent.
    Keywords: Private investment , Foreign exchange , Commodity prices , Capital markets , Asset management , Economic models ,
    Date: 2009–01–23
  73. By: Hans Genberg (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority); Cho-hoi Hui (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)
    Abstract: Hong Kong¡¯s Linked Exchange Rate system (LERS) has been in operation for 25 years during which time many other fixed exchange rate systems have succumbed to shocks and/or speculative attacks. This fact alone suggests that the LERS is a robust system which enjoys a large measure of credibility in financial markets. This paper intends to investigate whether this is indeed the case, and whether it has been the case throughout its 25-year history. In particular we will use the tools of modern finance to extract information from financial-asset prices about market expectations that are related to the credibility of the LERS. The main focus is on how market participants 'judged' the various changes made to the LERS, such as the 'seven technical measures' introduced in September 1998 and the 'three refinements' made in May 2005. These changes have been characterised as making the system less discretionary over time, and we hypothesise that they have also made it more credible as revealed in the prices of exchange rate-related asset prices. We also investigate the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates in the current system in light of modern models of target-zone exchange rate systems. We will examine whether the intra-marginal intervention in November 2007 changed the dynamic properties of the exchange rate as suggested by such models.
    Keywords: Hong Kong dollar, Linked Exchange Rate system, target zone
    JEL: E42 G14
    Date: 2009–01
  74. By: Bijwaard, G.E.; Knapp, S. (Erasmus Econometric Institute)
    Abstract: Due to the shipping industry’s international legal framework and the existence of loopholes in the system, an estimated 5-10 percent of substandard ships exist which are more likely to have incidents with high economic cost. This article uses ship life cycles to provide insight into the effectiveness of inspections on prolonging ship lives. We account for fluctuations in the relevant economic environment and the (possible time-varying) ship particulars. We use a unique dataset containing information on the timing of accidents, inspections, ship particular changes of more than fifty thousand ships over a 29 year time period (1978-2007). The results of our duration analysis reveal that the shipping industry is a relative safe industry but there is a possible over-inspection of vessels. It also reveals the need to improve transparency related to class withdrawals and changes of classification of the vessel. Another interesting finding is that for the majority of ship types an increase in earnings decreases the incident rate. This is in contrast to the industry perception of the impact of earnings. The effect of inspections vary across ship types and the prevention of incidents with high economic costs can be improved by better coordination of inspections, data sharing and a decrease in the number of inspections . Further, more emphasis should be placed on the rectification and follow up of deficiencies.
    Date: 2008–03–31
  75. By: Irineu E. Carvalho Filho; Rudolfs Bems
    Abstract: Exporters of exhaustible resources have historically exhibited higher income volatility than other economies, suggesting a heightened role for precautionary savings. This paper uses a parameterized small open economy model to quantify the role of precautionary savings in economies with exhaustible resources, when the only source of uncertainty is the price of the exhaustible resource. Results show that the precautionary motive can generate sizable external sector savings. When aggregated over the sample countries, precautionary savings in 2006 add up to 3.2 percent of GDP. The quantitative importance of the precautionary motive varies considerably across the sample countries and is driven primarily by the weight of exhaustible resource revenues in future income. The parameterized model fares well at capturing current account balances in both cross-section and time-series data.
    Keywords: Export sector , Developed countries , Developing countries , Current account , Exports , Savings , Income , External sector , Economic models , Cross country analysis ,
    Date: 2009–03–10
  76. By: Silvia Sgherri; Alessandro Galesi
    Abstract: The recent financial crisis raises important issues about the transmission of financial shocks across borders. In this paper, a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model is constructed to assess the relevance of international spillovers following a historical slowdown in U.S. equity prices. The GVAR model contains 27 country-specific models, including the United States, 17 European advanced economies, and 9 European emerging economies. Each country model is linked to the others by a set of country-specific foreign variables, computed using bilateral bank lending exposures. Results reveal considerable comovements of equity prices across mature financial markets. However, the effects on credit growth are found to be country-specific. Evidence indicates that asset prices are the main channel through which-in the short run-financial shocks are transmitted internationally, while the contribution of other variables-like the cost and quantity of credit-becomes more important over longer horizons.
    Keywords: Spillovers , Europe , Emerging markets , Financial systems , Economic integration , Regional shocks , Capital markets , Cross country analysis , Economic models ,
    Date: 2009–02–06
  77. By: Gonzalo Salinas; Abdikarim Farah; Emilio Sacerdoti
    Abstract: We develop a simple macroeconomic model that assesses the effects of higher foreign aid on output growth and other macroeconomic variables, including the real exchange rate. The model is easily tractable and requires estimation of only a few basic parameters. It takes into account the impact of aid on physical and human capital accumulation, while recognizing that the impact of the latter is more protracted. Application of the model to Niger-one of the poorest countries in the world-suggests that if foreign aid as a share of GDP were to be permanently increased from the equivalent of 10 percent of GDP in 2007 to 15 percent in 2008, annual economic growth would accelerate by more than 1 percentage point, without generating significant risks for macroeconomic stability. As a result, by 2020 Niger's income per capita would be 12.5 percent higher than it would be without increased foreign aid. Moreover, the higher growth would help Niger to cut the incidence of poverty by 25 percent by 2015, although the country will still be unable to reach the Millennium Development Goal of poverty reduction (MDG 1).
    Keywords: Development assistance , Niger , Low-income developing countries , Aid flows , Economic growth , Capital accumulation , Poverty reduction , Economic models ,
    Date: 2009–03–11
  78. By: Rasmus Fatum (University of Alberta (4-30H Business Building, University of Alberta, Edmonton AB, T6G 2R6 Canada. Telephone: 1-780-492- 3951, fax: 1-780-492-3325, email:
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether official Japanese intervention in the JPY/USD exchange rate over the January 1999 to March 2004 time period is effective. By integrating the official intervention data with a comprehensive set of newswire reports capturing days on which there is a rumor or speculation of intervention, the paper also attempts to shed some light on through which of the two channels, the signaling channel in a broad sense or the portfolio balance channel, effective Japanese intervention works. The results suggest that Japanese intervention is effective during the first 5 years of the sample and ineffective during the last 3 months of the sample, thereby providing an ex-post rationale for why Japan intervened as well as for why the interventions stopped. Moreover, the results suggest that when Japanese intervention is effective, it works through a portfolio-balance channel. The results do not rule out that effective intervention also works through signaling.
    Keywords: Exchange Rates, Foreign Exchange Market Intervention, Channels of Transmission
    JEL: E52 F31 G14
    Date: 2009–03

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