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on Unemployment, Inequality and Poverty |
| By: | Valentini, Annaelena; Brunori, Paolo; Ferreira, Francisco H. G.; Salas Rojo, Pedro |
| Abstract: | We analyse the extent to which a person’s country of origin -alongside other factors beyond their control, such as their parents’ education and occupation- are predictive of adult incomes in Europe. Interpreting the joint predictive power of inherited circumstances as a measure of inequality of opportunity, we employ data-driven methods to estimate inequality of opportunity for household disposable incomes, treating Europe as a single entity. To ensure representativeness, we combine data from EUROSTAT and three different household surveys to construct a sample that represents the population of Europe, accounting for country-of-birth population shares within countries. We estimate overall inequality in Europe at 39 Gini points in 2019, with inequality predicted by ascriptive characteristics accounting for a full 23 Gini points. The country where a person was born accounts for 64% of the latter figure, emerging as the most significant predictor compared to other factors such as parental occupation (26%) and parental education (9%). The level of inequality of opportunity observed in Europe as a whole is comparable to that in China and India and significantly higher than estimates for the United States. |
| Keywords: | inequality of opportunity; place of birth; migration; income distribution; Europe |
| JEL: | D31 J60 O52 O54 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138074 |
| By: | Bargain, Olivier (University of Bordeaux); Jara, H. (London School of Economics); Rivera, David (Bordeaux University) |
| Abstract: | Tax–benefit systems in Latin America have expanded alongside social protection, yet persistently high informality continues to constrain fiscal capacity and redistribution. This paper examines how tax policy changes affect formal employment in Bolivia, Colombia, and Ecuador over three periods (2008–2014/15-2019). The multi-country, multi-period design generates multiple quasi-experiments, enhancing external validity relative to studies focused on single reforms. We measure the implicit tax burden of moving from informal to formal work and estimate behavioral responses using grouped estimations robust to treatment heterogeneity. Higher tax burdens on formalization significantly reduce formal employment, with stronger responses concentrated among low-skilled, often self-employed workers facing high social contributions. Counterfactual simulations show that revenue-neutral reforms combining the removal of contribution floors with higher top taxation may simultaneously raise formalization and income tax progressivity, suggesting that expanding redistribution and limiting efficiency costs need not be in conflict in Latin American labor markets. |
| Keywords: | informality, employment, self-employment, tax burden, social contributions, income tax, benefits |
| JEL: | H24 H31 J24 J46 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18621 |
| By: | Bertocchi, Graziella (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia); Dimico, Arcangelo (Queen's University Belfast); Tedeschi, Gian Luca (Univesity of Bergamo) |
| Abstract: | Using a combination of individual-level, bioclimatic, ethnographic, and archaeological data, we investigate the ancient origins of cross-country variation in preferences for redistribution. Our hypothesis is that contemporary attitudes toward redistribution are shaped by ancestral inequality, which arose as an endogenous adaptation of pre-Neolithic hunter-gatherer societies to seasonal food shortages induced by the seasonality of the wild progenitors of domesticated crops. Employing contemporary survey data and an epidemiological approach, we first show that migrants originating from countries characterized by higher ancestral inequality exhibit lower support for redistribution, and that this relationship is driven by the degree of crop seasonality in the migrants’ origin countries. Next, using data on premodern societies, we show that crop seasonality induces food storage practices, which in turn lead to inequality. The positive effect of food storage on inequality is corroborated by data from archaeological sites. Drawing on data from preindustrial polities, we uncover that the mechanism linking food storage to redistributive preferences operates through the positive influence of the former on tolerance for inequality. |
| Keywords: | preferences for redistribution, seasonal food shortage, crop seasonality, food storage, inequality, tolerance for inequality |
| JEL: | D63 H23 N50 O13 Z10 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18647 |