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on Unemployment, Inequality and Poverty |
| By: | Ariel Kalil (Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago); Mauricio Koechlin (Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | Early childhood executive function (EF), the cognitive control processes underlying working memory, inhibitory control, and cognitive flexibility, is associated with later-life health and economic outcomes. Using data from Baby's First Years, a randomized trial of unconditional cash transfers to low-income mothers, we examine intergenerational EF transmission from mothers to their four-year-old children (n=769). Cash transfers do not significantly moderate this transmission in the full sample, but among low-EF mothers, where transmission is strongest, transfers attenuate the mother-child association to the point of statistical nonsignificance. Exploratory analysis suggests that increased cognitive stimulation and structured routines may mediate this process. Income support for low-income families may foster intergenerational mobility by weakening the transmission of low self-regulation. |
| Keywords: | Early Childhood, Executive Function, Unconditional Cash Transfers, Intergenerational Mobility, Poverty Policy. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-30 |
| By: | Costa-Font, Joan (London School of Economics); Gyori, Mario (LSE); Sanz de Miera, Belen (UABCS) |
| Abstract: | Extending health insurance to previously uncovered populations can improve access to preventative health care alongside income effects resulting from lower need of out-of-pocket. However, theoretically, in the presence of ex-ante moral hazard, it can also give a disincentive to preventative efforts to lose weight among the already obese population. This paper draws on evidence from the introduction of the Mexican Seguro Popular (SP) in the 2000s to examine its effects on individuals' obesity and body mass index (BMI). We exploit the arbitrary timing of SP’s rollout across Mexican municipalities, namely the exogenous variation resulting from the different speeds in the implementation of SP. We document no significant average effects of SP rollout on BMI and obesity. We document a reduction in the average BMI among those individuals who were already overweight at the time of the introduction of SP and a reduction in 2 pp in the probability of smoking. This evidence suggests no evidence of ex-ante moral hazard in Mexico. |
| Keywords: | obesity, overweight, insurance expansion, Seguro Popular, ex-ante moral hazard, income effects, prevention, health behaviours |
| JEL: | I18 J5 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18382 |
| By: | Ferreira, Francisco (London School of Economics); Peragine, Vito (University of Bari); Brunori, Paolo (London School of Economics); Salas-Rojo, Pedro (CUNEF); Moramarco, Domenico (University of Bari); Barajas, Luis (Secretaria de Educacion de Bogota); Barbieri, Teresa (University of Bari); Daza-Baez, Nancy (University College London); Datt, Gaurav (Monash University); de Sandi, Vito (LISER); Farella, Fabio (University of Bari); Martinez Jr, Arturo (Asian Development Bank); Nguyen, John (Monash University); Park, Albert (Hong Kong University of Science & Technology); Simeone, Enza (University of Bari); Sirugue, Louis (London School of Economics); Torres-Lopez, Pedro (London School of Economics); Zotti, Giorgia (University of Bari) |
| Abstract: | This paper describes a new public-access online database containing internationally comparable estimates of inequality of opportunity for seventy-two countries, covering two-thirds of the world’s population. The estimates were computed directly from the unit-record microdata for 196 household surveys, using a suite of machine-learning tools selected to minimize the omitted variable and overfitting biases discussed in the literature. Overall, differences in opportunities account for substantial shares of total income inequality (with the mean of our preferred estimate being 40.9%), but there is substantial variation across countries, with estimates ranging from 18.9% in Denmark (2011) to 76.7% in South Africa (2017). The latest US estimate of 41.6% places it among the most opportunity unequal high-income countries. We also find strong support for the existence of a positive association between income inequality and relative inequality of opportunity, analogous to the “Great Gatsby Curve†for mobility and inequality. Similarly, there is evidence of an inverted-U “Opportunity Kuznets curve†. The database is available at www.geom.ecineq.org. |
| Keywords: | inequality of opportunity, mobility, machine learning |
| JEL: | D31 D63 I39 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18367 |
| By: | Alan Manning |
| Abstract: | A polarised debate ignores the trade-offs involved, we can do better. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, UK Economy |
| Date: | 2026–02–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:725 |
| By: | Bocchino, Andrea (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Povea, Erika (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how organized crime presence transforms local communities and human capital formation. Identifying these effects is challenging, as crime is endogenous to local conditions. We address this by leveraging the recent case of Ecuador, where criminal organizations from neighboring countries have rapidly established a new cocaine export route. This externally driven shock generated sharp increases in violent crime, allowing us to estimate causal effects using a difference-in-differences design based on proximity to areas prone to cocaine smuggling. Crime-affected areas experienced higher dropout rates among children at grades characterized by weak school attachment, the end of primary education and the first years of secondary school. While we do not find evidence of increased dropout among older students aged 15-18, individuals in this age group already out of education at the time of the crime surge exhibited a marked rise in risky behaviors, reflected in higher homicide victimization and earlier pregnancies. We also document severe economic disruption: household income fell by nearly 30%, driven mainly by a decline in informal employment. Declining earnings are a key mechanism linking crime exposure to school dropout. These findings show that the externalities of organized crime impose persistent social costs, deepening inequality and undermining human capital development. |
| Keywords: | education; children; human capital; organized crime; labor markets |
| JEL: | I25 J24 K42 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–02–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2026_002 |
| By: | Virginia Minni (University of Chicago); Kieu-Trang Nguyen (University of Melbourne); Heather Sarsons (University of Chicago); Carla Srebot (University of British Columbia) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how managers’ gender attitudes shape workplace culture and gender inequality. Using data from a multinational firm operating in over 100 countries, we leverage cross-country manager rotations to identify the effects of male managers’ gender attitudes on gender pay gaps within a team. Managers from countries with one standard deviation more progressive gender attitudes reduce the pay gap by 5 percentage points (18%), largely through higher promotion rates for women. These effects persist after managers rotate out and are strongest in more conservative countries. Managers with progressive attitudes also influence the local office culture, as local managers who interact with but are not under the purview of the foreign manager begin to have smaller pay gaps in their teams. Our evidence points to individual managers as critical in shaping corporate culture. |
| Keywords: | managers, gender gaps, corporate culture, multinationals |
| JEL: | J16 J24 F23 M14 M5 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-22 |
| By: | Nagler, Markus (Friedrich Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Germany); Winkler, Erwin (Friedrich Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | A large literature investigates the employment effects of minimum wages, with comparatively little evidence on other adjustment margins. In this paper, we analyze the impact of a nationwide introduction of minimum wages in Germany on employer-induced work pressure, using detailed worker-level survey data. Applying a difference-in-differences approach, we show that the introduction of minimum wages increased work pressure in occupations more exposed to the minimum wage. The increase in work pressure cannot be explained by compositional changes in terms of demographics, job complexity, or hours worked. |
| Keywords: | minimum wage, work pressure, non-wage amenities, working conditions, compensating differentials |
| JEL: | J28 J31 J32 J33 J81 H80 I31 I38 K31 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18398 |
| By: | Jessamyn Schaller; Mariana Zerpa |
| Abstract: | We examine how the Affordable Care Act (ACA) altered the insurance consequences of involuntary job loss. Using matched event-study models with longitudinal survey data, we estimate the causal effects of displacement on insurance coverage before and after implementation of the ACA’s main provisions. Prior to 2014, job loss reduced coverage by approximately 16 percentage points, with losses persisting for more than a year. After the ACA, declines are smaller—about 10 percentage points—and recovery is faster. Gains reflect higher baseline public coverage and reduced post-displacement losses, with the largest improvements among middle income workers previously most exposed to coverage disruptions. |
| JEL: | C23 I13 I18 J65 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34874 |
| By: | Bhalotra, Sonia (University of Warwick); Daysal, N. Meltem (University of Copenhagen); Freget, Louis (Paris Dauphine University-PSL); Hirani, Jonas (VIVE); Majumdar, Priyama (Warwick); Trandafir, Mircea (Rockwool Foundation Research Unit); Wüst, Miriam (University of Copenhagen); Zohar, Tom (CEMFI) |
| Abstract: | Using Danish administrative data linked to two independent, validated postpartum depression screenings, we study how postpartum mental health shocks shape women’s labor market trajectories. Event-study estimates show no pre-birth differences in trends between depressed and non-depressed mothers, but persistent employment gaps that widen immediately after birth. Health-care utilization patterns indicate that these differences reflect acute mental health shocks rather than pre-existing trends. The penalties are concentrated among less educated mothers and those in less family-friendly jobs. Our results highlight postpartum depression as a meaningful and unequal contributor to the motherhood penalty. |
| Keywords: | postpartum depression, motherhood penalty, labor market inequality |
| JEL: | I12 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18366 |