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on Unemployment, Inequality and Poverty |
| By: | Berniell, Inés; Fernández, Raquel; Menduiña, Azul; Onofri, Milagros |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the sharp decline in fertility across Latin America using both period and cohort measures. Combining Vital Statistics, Census microdata, and UN population data, we decompose changes in fertility by age, education, and joint age–education groups. We show that the decline in period fertility between 2000 and 2022 is driven primarily by reductions in within-group birth rates rather than by changes in population composition, with the largest contributions coming from younger and less-educated women. Comparing the cohort born in the mid 1950s and the one born in the mid 1970s, we find that the decline in completed fertility reflects not only delayed childbearing but also substantial reductions in the average number of children per woman. This is driven primarily by lower fertility among mothers rather than by rising childlessness. Our findings provide new evidence on the nature of Latin America’s transition to below-replacement fertility and highlight several open questions for future research. |
| JEL: | J11 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21071 |
| By: | Claudia Goldin |
| Abstract: | The fertility decline is everywhere in the world today and goes back decades for rich countries. Birthrates have been below replacement in the U.S. and Europe since the mid-1970s. Completed cohort fertility in the U.S. was lower for those born in 1955 than for 1975. The reasons for the initial declines involve greater female autonomy and a mismatch between the desires of men and women. Men generally benefit more from maintaining traditions; women often benefit more from eschewing them. When the probability is low that men will abandon traditions, some career women will not have children and others will delay. |
| JEL: | J13 J16 N30 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35425 |
| By: | Felipe Barrera-Osorio; Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía; Matias Busso; Sebastian Galiani; Hyunjae Kang; Juan S. Muñoz-Morales; Juan Pantano |
| Abstract: | Parents may invest differently across children by compensating the disadvantaged child or by reinforcing the child with higher expected returns. We study this question using a conditional cash transfer experiment that uniquely randomized transfers at the student level, generating exogenous variation in transfer exposure across siblings within the same household. The transfers increased short-run attendance among treated students but generated negative spillovers on untreated siblings: untreated siblings of treated students were 3.7 percentage points less likely to graduate from college, a decline of about 30 percent relative to the control mean. We interpret these effects using a dynamic model of household schooling decisions that identifies parental aversion to inequality in children’s educational outcomes. The estimated model implies limited aversion to inequality in children’s educational outcomes and reproduces held-out treatment effects not used in estimation. A decomposition shows that the negative spillover is primarily driven by substitution in educational investments toward the treated child. |
| JEL: | D13 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35375 |
| By: | Manuel Arellano (CEMFI); Orazio Attanasio (Yale University); Margherita Borella (University of Turin); Mariacristina De Nardi (University of Minnesota); Gonzalo Paz-Pardo (European Central Bank) |
| Abstract: | We develop a new approach to estimating earnings, job, and employment dynamics using subjective expectations data from the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations. These data provide beliefs about future earnings offers and acceptance probabilities, offering direct information on counterfactual outcomes and enabling identification under weaker assumptions. Our framework avoids biases from selection and unobserved heterogeneity that affect models using realized outcomes. First-step fixed-effects regressions identify risk, persistence, and transition effects; second-step GMM recovers the covariance structure of unobserved heterogeneities such as ability, mobility, and match quality. We find lower risk and persistence of the individual productivity component than in prior work, but greater heterogeneity in ability and match quality. Simulations show that reduced-form estimates overstate persistence and volatility on individual-level productivity due to job transitions and sorting. After accounting for heterogeneity, volatility declines and becomes flat across the earnings distribution. These results underscore the value of expectations data. |
| Date: | 2026–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2509 |
| By: | Becker, Sascha O.; Bentzen, Jeanet; Chee Kok, Chun |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a survey of the literature on gender differences in religiosity and the influence of religion on gender-related economic and social outcomes. Part I examines why women tend to be more religious than men, discussing central explanations. Part II explores how religion impacts various gender-related outcomes, such as gender norms and attitudes, education, labor market participation, fertility, health, legal institutions and reforms, and discrimination. Within each domain, we distinguish between effects driven by individual religiosity (intensity of religious practice or belief) and those driven by their religious denomination. We synthesize findings from numerous studies, highlighting data sources, measures of religion and gender outcomes, and empirical strategies. We focus on studies with credible causal identification — such as natural experiments, instrumental variable approaches, and policy changes — to uncover the impact of religion on outcomes. Correlational studies are also reviewed to provide context. Across studies, the evidence suggests that religious teachings and participation often reinforce traditional gender roles, affecting women’s education, labor force participation, and fertility choices, although there are important nuances and exceptions. We also document instances where secular reforms or religious movements have altered these outcomes. The survey concludes by identifying gaps in the literature and suggesting directions for future research. An important take-away from our review is that rigorous empirical studies are scarce, leaving room for novel causal studies in this field. |
| Keywords: | Religion; Gender; Survey; Religiosity; Labor market outcomes; Cultural norms |
| JEL: | Z12 J16 J12 J13 J21 D72 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20869 |
| By: | Karimi, Arizo (Uppsala Univeristy); Niknami, Susan (SOFI, Stockholm University); Ornstein, Petra (Uppsala University); Sandberg, Anna (SOFI, Stockholm University); Mühlrad, Hanna (Karolinska Institutet) |
| Abstract: | Using large-scale Swedish administrative data, we study the risk factors and causal consequences of intimate partner violence (IPV). IPV perpetrators and victims are disproportionately drawn from disadvantaged backgrounds, and sibling correlations indicate that family background accounts for roughly one third of the variation in male IPV perpetration and female IPV victimization. Exploiting a matched difference-in-differences design, we document large persistent negative effects of IPV on victims’ labor market outcomes and health, with the social welfare system more than offsetting earnings losses on average. Perpetrators experience sharp earnings declines and deteriorating health. Our findings suggest that IPV amplifies existing socioeconomic inequalities. |
| Keywords: | intimate partner violence, gender inequality, labor supply, mental health, crime |
| JEL: | I12 I14 I15 J12 J16 J17 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18742 |