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on Unemployment, Inequality and Poverty |
| By: | Lepinteur, Anthony (University of Luxembourg); Powdthavee, Nattavudh (Nanyang Technological University, Singapore) |
| Abstract: | People often misjudge what others need to live well. We introduce and measure well-being norms - the income people believe others require for a good life - and show that these beliefs are systematically underestimated. In a preregistered U.S. survey, 85–86% of respondents reported thresholds below what others say they themselves need. Two randomized survey experiments corrected these misperceptions. Respondents updated their beliefs considerably, yet support for redistribution and donation behavior remained unchanged. This null average effect, however, masks substantial heterogeneity. Among those who found the information credible and personally relevant, we observe redistribution support increasing by approximately 20% of a standard deviation, especially when the information referred to low-income families rather than the average American. Among those who dismissed it, we observe support decreasing by similar magnitudes - a pattern consistent with motivated reasoning and backlash. The main insight is that belief updating alone does not, on average, change policy preferences. Information influences redistribution attitudes only when perceived as morally important and legitimate. |
| Keywords: | information treatments, beliefs, inequality, keyword2, keyword1, redistribution preferences, income, subjective well-being |
| JEL: | D31 D63 H23 H24 I31 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18296 |
| By: | Costa-Font, Joan (London School of Economics); Nicinska, Anna (University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | Education systems serve various purposes, including the enhancement of later-life health, though its effect can differ by socio-political regime. This paper examines the effects of exposure to communist education, which exposed children to a distinct curcurriculum and ideological content on later-life health. We exploit a novel dataset that collects information on compulsory education reforms in several European countries, with different cohorts exposed and unexposed to Soviet communist education. Using a difference-in-differences (DiD) design, we show that while the extension of compulsory education improved some relevant measures of health, communist education encompassed an additional health-enhancing effect. We document that the effect remains robust when using staggered DiD approaches and various robustness tests, and that it is explained by the priority given to physical education in school curricula, together with an increased likelihood of marriage. |
| Keywords: | physical activity, later-life health, health education gradient, communist education, Europe, Soviet Communism |
| JEL: | I18 I26 P36 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18304 |
| By: | Liepmann, Hannah (ILO International Labour Organization); Hegewisch, Ariane |
| Abstract: | While population ageing increases the demand for care work, new technologies, including AI, reinforce the importance of human interaction, with recent research finding significant wage premiums for social skills. Against this background, we investigate two factors behind the gender wage gap: occupational gender segregation and lower pay in female-dominated occupations, especially care work, where social skills are central. Using 1972-2024 CPS data, we show that occupational gender segregation remains pronounced in the United States, with many care occupations remaining female-dominated. This continues to correlate with lower wages. Conditional on observable characteristics, a 1 percentage point increase in the occupational share of women during 2015-24 was associated with a wage decrease of 0.22 percent for women and 0.20 percent for men. We then analyze whether returns to social skills are distorted in the care sector, where we hypothesize that the wage returns on workers' performance are lower due to the public-goods aspect of care work. Based on combined CPS and O*Net data, we investigate occupation-level skills returns for 2015-24. They are indeed insignificant for care workers but sizeable for business services workers. |
| Keywords: | returns to skills, care work, future of work, undervaluation of women's work, occupational gender segregation, social skills, new technologies and AI, gender wage gap |
| JEL: | H41 J16 J21 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18291 |
| By: | Costa-Font, Joan (London School of Economics); Frank, Richard (Harvard University); Raut, Nilesh (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The financing of long-term care services and supports (LTSS) relies heavily on self-insurance in the form of housing or financial wealth. Exploiting both local market variation in housing prices and individual-level variation in stock market wealth from 1996 to 2016, we document that exogenous wealth shocks significantly reduce the probability of LTCI coverage, without significantly altering Medicaid eligibility among owners of housing and financial assets. The effect of shocks to liquid wealth strongly dominates the effect of housing wealth changes. A $100K increase in housing (financial) wealth reduces the likelihood of LTCI coverage by 1.24 (3.22) percentage points. |
| Keywords: | stock market price index, house prices, Medicaid, housing assets, long-term care insurance, istrumental variables |
| JEL: | I18 J14 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18287 |
| By: | Peter Siminski (University of Technology Sydney); Roger Wilkins (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research) |
| Abstract: | We examine the role of owner-occupied housing for income inequality. Departing from related work, we incorporate accrued capital gains, focus on long-run measures of income, and consider implications for tax progressivity. Using Australia as a case study, we show that housing income can have major implications for the apparent level and trends over time of inequality, progressivity of taxes and transfers, as well as the demographic profile of the rich and the poor. When imputed rent and accrued capital gains—neither of which are taxed—are included in the income base, the redistributive impact of income tax is reduced by 40%. |
| Keywords: | Inequality; Housing; Tax progressivity |
| JEL: | D63 R21 H24 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2025n19 |
| By: | Matias Ciaschi (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP and CONICET); Guillermo Falcone (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP and CONICET); Santiago Garganta (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Leonardo Gasparini (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP and CONICET); Octavio Bertín (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Lucía Ramirez-Leira (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the potential distributional consequences of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption in Latin American labor markets. Using harmonized household survey data from 14 countries, we combine four recently developed AI occupational exposure indices—the AI Occupational Exposure Index (AIOE), the ComplementarityAdjusted AIOE (C-AIOE), the Generative AI Exposure Index (GBB), and the AIGenerated Occupational Exposure Index (GENOE)—to analyze patterns across countries and worker groups. We validate these measures by comparing task profiles between Latin America and high-income economies using PIAAC data, and develop a contextual adjustment that incorporates informality, wage structures, and union coverage. Finally, we simulate first-order impacts of AI-induced displacement on earnings, poverty, and inequality. The results show substantial heterogeneity, with higher levels of AI-related risk among women, younger, more educated, and formal workers. Indices that account for task complementarities show flatter gradients across the income and education distribution. Simulations suggest that displacement effects may lead to only moderate increases in inequality and poverty in the absence of mitigating policies. |
| JEL: | O33 J21 D31 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0361 |
| By: | Holthaus, Krista L.H.; Nuevo-Chiquero, Ana (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | We study within-family differences by order of birth in survival and longevity in 19th century Netherlands. Using existing matched birth and death records from the Dutch provinces of Groningen and Drenthe, we report no significant differences in survival to ages 5 or 18 or longevity for those reaching adulthood by their order of birth among all siblings. When we allow the effect to vary by gender of the individual and of the older siblings, we find a small negative (positive) effect driven by same-(different-)gender older siblings, suggesting certain within-gender competition on survival. The effects, however, are small -- around 0.5 percentage points on survival levels above 75\% -- and are consistently restricted to early life. Longevity, once the individual reaches adulthood, is not consistently correlated with birth order for more flexible specifications. Importantly, we do not detect any differences by socio-economic status as captured by the father's occupation, nor do we observe a particular trend over time. This lack of observable differences by socio-economic status is noteworthy, especially given the radical changes during the study period, suggesting that it was homogeneously distributed by order of birth. |
| Keywords: | historical data, demographic transition, birth order, the Netherlands |
| JEL: | N33 I14 J13 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18298 |