nep-ltv New Economics Papers
on Unemployment, Inequality and Poverty
Issue of 2023‒07‒31
four papers chosen by
Maximo Rossi
Universidad de la República

  1. Does Anger Drive Populism? By Omer Ali; Klaus Desmet; Romain Wacziarg
  2. The Bayesian approach to poverty measurement By Michel Lubrano; Zhou Xun
  3. What Makes Hiring Difficult? Evidence from Linked Survey-Administrative Data By Bertheau, Antoine; Larsen, Birthe; Zhao, Zeyu
  4. The Occupational Attainment of American Jewish Men in the Mid-19th Century By Barry Chiswick; RaeAnn Robinson

  1. By: Omer Ali; Klaus Desmet; Romain Wacziarg
    Abstract: We study whether anger fuels the rise of populism. Anger as an emotion tends to act as a call to action against individuals or groups that are blamed for negative situations, making it conducive to voting for populist politicians. Using a unique dataset tracking emotions for a large sample of respondents from 2008 to 2017, we explore the relationship between anger and the populist vote share across U.S. counties. More angry counties displayed stronger preferences for populist candidates during the 2016 presidential primaries and elections. However, once we control for other negative emotions and life satisfaction, anger no longer operates as a separate channel in driving the populist vote share. Instead, our results indicate that a more complex sense of malaise and gloom, rather than anger per se, drives the rise in populism.
    JEL: D72 D91 E71
    Date: 2023–06
  2. By: Michel Lubrano (School of Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Zhou Xun (School of Economics and Management [Nanjing] - NJUST - Nanjing University of Science and Technology)
    Abstract: This chapter reviews the recent Bayesian literature on poverty measurement together with some new results. Using Bayesian model criticism, we revise the international poverty line. Using mixtures of lognormals to model income, we derive the posterior distribution for the FGT, Watts and Sen poverty indices, for TIP curves (with an illustration on child poverty in Germany) and for Growth Incidence Curves. The relation of restricted stochastic dominance with TIP and GIC dominance is detailed with an example based on UK data. Using panel data, we decompose poverty into total, chronic and transient poverty, comparing child and adult poverty in East Germany when redistribution is introduced. When panel data are not available, a Gibbs sampler can be used to build a pseudo panel. We illustrate poverty dynamics by examining the consequences of the Wall on poverty entry and poverty persistence in occupied West Bank.
    Keywords: bayesian inference, mixture model, poverty indices, stochastic dominance, poverty dynamics
    Date: 2023–03–17
  3. By: Bertheau, Antoine (University of Copenhagen); Larsen, Birthe (University of Copenhagen); Zhao, Zeyu (Copenhagen Business School)
    Abstract: We design a survey that asks firms about the obstacles that discourage them from hiring despite having potential needs. Using Danish administrative data and subjective beliefs elicited from our survey, we show how hiring obstacles vary across firms. Over two-thirds of employers agree that skill shortages are a hiring obstacle. One-third of employers consider labor costs, the time to find candidates, and the time to train new recruits as hiring obstacles. High-wage firms are less discouraged by labor costs, while younger or smaller firms are more discouraged by search and training time. Around thirty percent of employers prefer to hire the already employed over the unemployed because they believe that unemployed workers have lower abilities due to negative selection or skill depreciation during unemployment. Firms with such preferences are more likely to report hiring obstacles.
    Keywords: labor demand, hiring behavior, linked survey-administrative data, employer perceptions
    JEL: J23 M12
    Date: 2023–06
  4. By: Barry Chiswick (George Washington University); RaeAnn Robinson (George Washington University)
    Abstract: This paper is concerned with analyzing the occupational status of American Jewish men compared to other free men in the mid-19th century to help fill a gap in the literature. It does this by using the 1/100 microdata sample from the 1850 Census of Population, the first census to ask occupation. Two independent lists of surnames are used to identify men with a higher probability of being Jewish. The men identified as Jews had a higher probability of being professionals, managers, and craft workers, and were less likely to be in farm occupations or in operative jobs. Using the Duncan Socioeconomic Index (SEI), the Jewish men have a higher SEI overall. In the multiple regression analysis, it is found that among Jewish and other free men occupational status increases with age (up to about age 44 for all men), literacy, being married, being native born, living in the South, and living in an urban area. Controlling for a set of these variables, Jews have a significantly higher SEI, which is the equivalent of about half the size of the effect of being literate. This higher occupational status is consistent with patterns found elsewhere for American Jews throughout the 20th century.
    Keywords: Jews, Occupational Status, Duncan Socioeconomic Index, 1850 Census of Population, Antebellum America, Labor Market Analysis, Human Capital
    JEL: N31 J62 J15
    Date: 2023–03

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