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on Unemployment, Inequality and Poverty |
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Issue of 2023‒01‒16
nine papers chosen by |
| By: | Wenli Li (Federal Reserve Bank Philadelphia); Costas Meghir (Yale University [New Haven], CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Florian Oswald (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We specify and estimate a lifecycle model of consumption, housing demand and labor supply in an environment where individuals may file for bankruptcy or default on their mortgage. Uncertainty in the model is driven by house price shocks, {education specific} productivity shocks, and catastrophic consumption events, while bankruptcy is governed by the basic institutional framework in the US as implied by Chapter 7 and Chapter 13. The model is estimated using micro data on credit reports and mortgages combined with data from the American Community Survey. We use the model to understand the relative importance of the two chapters (7 and 13) for each of our two education groups that differ in both preferences and wage profiles. We also provide an evaluation of the BACPCA reform. Our paper demonstrates importance of distributional effects of Bankruptcy policy. |
| Keywords: | Lifecycle, Bankruptcy, Mortgage Default, Housing, Labor Supply, Consumption, Education, Insurance, Moral hazard |
| Date: | 2022–03–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03882830&r=ltv |
| By: | Daron Acemoglu; Nicolaj S{\o}ndergaard M\"uhlbach; Andrew J. Scott |
| Abstract: | In 1990, one in five U.S. workers were aged over 50 years whereas today it is one in three. One possible explanation for this is that occupations have become more accommodating to the preferences of older workers. We explore this by constructing an "age-friendliness" index for occupations. We use Natural Language Processing to measure the degree of overlap between textual descriptions of occupations and characteristics which define age-friendliness. Our index provides an approximation to rankings produced by survey participants and has predictive power for the occupational share of older workers. We find that between 1990 and 2020 around three quarters of occupations have seen their age-friendliness increase and employment in above-average age-friendly occupations has risen by 49 million. However, older workers have not benefited disproportionately from this rise, with substantial gains going to younger females and college graduates and with male non-college educated workers losing out the most. These findings point to the need to frame the rise of age-friendly jobs in the context of other labour market trends and imperfections. Purely age-based policies are insufficient given both heterogeneity amongst older workers as well as similarities between groups of older and younger workers. The latter is especially apparent in the overlapping appeal of specific occupational characteristics. |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2212.03355&r=ltv |
| By: | Pierre Cahuc (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Francis Kramarz (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IPP - Institut des politiques publiques, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics); Sandra Nevoux (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France) |
| Abstract: | To understand which firms take-up short-time work and which workers they enroll in this program, we provide a model which shows that short-time work may save jobs in firms hit by strong negative revenue shocks, but not in less severely-hit firms, where hours worked are reduced, without saving jobs. Using detailed data on the administration of the program covering the universe of French establishments in the 2008-2009 Great Recession, we find that short-time work did indeed save jobs and increase hours of work in firms faced with large negative shocks. These firms have been able to recover rapidly in the aftermath of the Recession thanks to short-time work. We also provide evidence of large windfall effects which significantly increased the cost of the policy per job saved; yet we also find that short-time work remains more cost-efficient at saving jobs than wage subsidies. |
| Keywords: | Short-time work, Employment, Hours of work |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03881632&r=ltv |
| By: | Yann Algan (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales); Elizabeth Beasley (CEPREMAP - Centre pour la recherche économique et ses applications - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres); Sylvana Côté (UdeM - Université de Montréal); Jungwee Park (Statistics Canada); Richard E Tremblay (UCD - University College Dublin [Dublin], UdeM - Université de Montréal); Frank Vitaro (UdeM - Université de Montréal) |
| Abstract: | A childhood intervention to improve the social skills and self-control of at-risk kindergarten boys in the 1980s had positive impacts over the life course: higher trust and self-control as adolescents; increased social group membership, education, and reduced criminality as young adults; and increased marriage and employment as adults. Using administrative data, we find this intervention increased average yearly employment income by about 20 percent and decreased average yearly social transfers by almost 40 percent. We estimate that $1 invested in this program around age 8 yields about $11 in benefits by age 39, with an internal rate of return of around 17 percent. |
| Date: | 2022–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03887405&r=ltv |
| By: | Marcel Preuss, Germán Reyes, Jason Somerville y Joy Wu (CEDLAS - IIE-UNLP) |
| Abstract: | We examine how people redistribute income when there is uncertainty about the role luck plays in determining opportunities and outcomes. We elicit redistribution decisions from a U.S.- representative sample who observe worker outcomes and whether luck magnified workers’ effort (“lucky opportunities†) or determined workers’ income directly (“lucky outcomes†). We find that participants redistribute less and are less reactive to changes in the importance of luck in environments with lucky opportunities. Our findings have implications for models that seek to understand and predict redistribution attitudes, and help to explain the gap between lab evidence on support for redistribution and U.S. inequality trends. |
| JEL: | C91 D63 |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0309&r=ltv |
| By: | Joan Costa-Font (LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics, CESifo - Center for Economic Studies and Ifo for Economic Research - CESifo Group Munich); Sarah Fleche (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, CEP - LSE - Centre for Economic Performance - LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Ricardo Pagan (University of Málaga) |
| Abstract: | The proportion of people sleeping less than the daily-recommended hours has increased. Yet, we know little about the labour market returns to sleep. We use longitudinal data from Germany and exploit exogenous variation in sleep duration induced by time and local variations in sunset time. We find that a 1-hour increase in weekly sleep increases employment by 1.6 percentage points and weekly earnings by 3.4%. Most of this earnings effect comes from productivity improvements, while the number of working hours decreases with sleep time. We identify one mechanism driving these effects, namely the better mental health workers experience from sleeping more hours. |
| Keywords: | sleep, employment, productivity, mental health, sunset times |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-03887490&r=ltv |
| By: | Sergei Guriev (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Elias Papaioannou (London Business School) |
| Abstract: | We synthesize the literature on the recent rise of populism. First, we discuss definitions and present descriptive evidence on the recent increase in support for populists. Second, we cover the historical evolution of populist regimes since the late nineteenth century. Third, we discuss the role of secular economic factors related to cross-border trade and automation. Fourth, we review studies on the role of the 2008–09 global financial crisis and subsequent austerity, connect them to historical work covering the Great Depression, and discuss likely mechanisms. Fifth, we discuss studies on identity politics, trust, and cultural backlash. Sixth, we discuss economic and cultural consequences of growth in immigration and the recent refugee crisis. We also discuss the gap between perceptions and reality regarding immigration. Seventh, we review studies on the impact of the internet and social media. Eighth, we discuss the literature on the implications of populism's recent rise. We conclude outlining avenues for further research. |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03874305&r=ltv |
| By: | Ghazala Azmat (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEP - LSE - Centre for Economic Performance - LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science); Lena Hensvik (Uppsala Universitet [Uppsala]); Olof Rosenqvist (IFAU) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how the parenthood wage penalty is partially explained by an increased within-couple gap in job uniqueness (i.e., the within-establishment substitutability of workers). Uniqueness is rewarded with higher wages, but it requires worker presenteeism (i.e., the lack of unpredictable work absences), which entails a higher cost of childbearing. Using a within-couple event study approach, we show that after the arrival of the first child, women take more days of absence than men and their likelihood of holding jobs with low substitutability decreases. We find that 15 years after childbearing, the male-female gender gap in holding a (higher-paying) unique jobs increases by 6 percentage points. The results suggest that structural changes towards greater work flexibility, making it less costly for workers in unique jobs not to be present, can help to reduce the parenthood wage penalty. |
| Keywords: | Work absence,Job substitutability,Gender wage inequality |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03873809&r=ltv |
| By: | Hélène Benghalem (UNIL - Université de Lausanne = University of Lausanne); Pierre Cahuc (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IZA - Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit - Institute of Labor Economics, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Pierre Villedieu (Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Po Sciences |
| Abstract: | We ran a large randomized controlled experiment among about 150, 000 recipients of unemployment benefits insurance in France in order to evaluate the impact of part-time unemployment benefits. We took advantage of the lack of knowledge of job seekers regarding this program and sent emails presenting the program. The information provision had a significant positive impact on the propensity to work while on claim, but reduced the unemployment exit rate, showing important lock-in effects into unemployment associated with part-time unemployment benefits. The extension of the duration of compensated unemployment counterbalanced the increase in the number of days worked while on claim so that the number of hours worked and the net expenditure of unemployment insurance remained unchanged. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment insurance, Part-time unemployment benefits, Lock-in effects, Unemployment duration |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03881625&r=ltv |