nep-ltv New Economics Papers
on Unemployment, Inequality and Poverty
Issue of 2018‒05‒28
six papers chosen by
Maximo Rossi
Universidad de la República

  1. When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage-Market Value of Young Men By Autor, David; Dorn, David; Hanson, Gordon H.
  2. Household labour supply and the marriage market in the UK, 1991-2008 By Marion Gousse; Nicolas Jacquemet; Jean-Marc Robin
  3. How Valid Are Synthetic Panel Estimates of Poverty Dynamics? By Herault, Nicolas; Jenkins, Stephen P.
  4. Populism and the Economics of Globalization By Rodrik, Dani
  5. Perpetual growth, distribution, and robots By Nomaler, Onder; Verspagen, Bart
  6. Structural Change, Fundamentals, and Growth: A Framework and Case Studies By McMillan, Margaret; Rodrik, Dani; Sepulveda, Claudia

  1. By: Autor, David (MIT); Dorn, David (University of Zurich); Hanson, Gordon H. (University of California, San Diego)
    Abstract: We exploit the gender-specific components of large-scale labor demand shocks stemming from rising international manufacturing competition to test how shifts in the relative economic stature of young men versus young women affected marriage, fertility and children's living circumstances during 1990-2014. On average, trade shocks differentially reduce employment and earnings of young adult males. Consistent with Becker's model of household specialization, shocks to male's relative earnings reduce marriage and fertility. Consistent with prominent sociological accounts, these shocks heighten male idleness and premature mortality, and raise the share of mothers who are unwed and the share of children living in below-poverty, single-headed households.
    Keywords: import competition, trade flows, single-parent families, household structure, mortality, fertility, marriage market, local labor markets
    JEL: F16 J12 J13 J21 J23
    Date: 2018–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11465&r=ltv
  2. By: Marion Gousse (Université Laval (Québec)); Nicolas Jacquemet (Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne); Jean-Marc Robin (Département d'économie)
    Abstract: We document changes in labour supply, wage and education by gender and marital status using the British Household Panel Survey, 1991-2008, and seek to disentangle the main channels behind these changes. To this end, we use a version of Goussé et al. (2016)'s search-matching model of the marriage market with labour supply, which does not use information on home production time inputs. We derive conditions under which the model is identified. We estimate different parameters for each year. This allows us to quantify how much of the changes in labour supply, wage and education by gender and marital status depends on changes in the preferences for leisure of men and women and how much depends on changes in homophily.
    Keywords: Search-matching; Sorting; Assortative matching; Collective labour supply; Structural estimation
    JEL: C78 D83 J12 J22
    Date: 2017–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/660vg58v5k8erajtn9uj2uue81&r=ltv
  3. By: Herault, Nicolas (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research); Jenkins, Stephen P. (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: A growing literature uses repeated cross-section surveys to derive 'synthetic panel' data estimates of poverty dynamics statistics. It builds on the pioneering study by Dang, Lanjouw, Luoto, and McKenzie (Journal of Development Economics, 2014) providing bounds estimates and the innovative refinement proposed by Dang and Lanjouw (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6504, 2013) providing point estimates of the statistics of interest. We provide new evidence about the accuracy of synthetic panel estimates relative to benchmarks based on estimates derived from genuine household panel data, employing high quality data from Australia and Britain, while also examining the sensitivity of results to a number of analytical choices. Overall, we are more agnostic about the validity of the synthetic panel approach applied to these two rich countries than are earlier validity studies in their applications focusing on middle- and low-income countries.
    Keywords: poverty exit, poverty entry, poverty dynamics, pseudo panel, synthetic panel, BHPS, HILDA
    JEL: I32 D31 C52
    Date: 2018–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11484&r=ltv
  4. By: Rodrik, Dani (Harvard University)
    Abstract: Populism may seem like it has come out of nowhere, but it has been on the rise for a while. I argue that economic history and economic theory both provide ample grounds for anticipating that advanced stages of economic globalization would produce a political backlash. While the backlash may have been predictable, the specific form it took was less so. I distinguish between left-wing and right-wing variants of populism, which differ with respect to the societal cleavages that populist politicians highlight. The first has been predominant in Latin America, and the second in Europe. I argue that these different reactions are related to the relative salience of different types of globalization shocks.
    Date: 2017–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp17-026&r=ltv
  5. By: Nomaler, Onder (ECIS, TU Eindhoven); Verspagen, Bart (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University)
    Abstract: The current literature on the economic effects of machine learning, robotisation and artificial intelligence suggests that there may be an upcoming wave of substitution of human labour by machines (including software). We take this as a reason to rethink the traditional ways in which technological change has been represented in economic models. In doing so, we contribute to the recent literature on so-called perpetual growth, i.e., growth of per capita income without technological progress. When technology embodied in capital goods are sufficiently advanced, per capita growth becomes possible with a non-progressing state of technology. We present a simple Solow-like growth model that incorporates these ideas. The model predicts a rising wage rate but declining share of wage income in the steady state growth path. We present simulation experiments on several policy options to combat the inequality that results from this, including a universal basic income as well as an option in which workers become owners of "robots".
    Keywords: perpetual economic growth, economic effects of robots, income distribution
    JEL: O15 O41 O33 E25 P17
    Date: 2018–05–23
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2018023&r=ltv
  6. By: McMillan, Margaret (Tufts University); Rodrik, Dani (Harvard University); Sepulveda, Claudia (World Bank)
    Abstract: Developing countries made considerable gains during the first decade of the 21st century. Their economies grew at unprecedented rates, resulting in large reductions in extreme poverty and a significant expansion of the middle class. But more recently that progress has slowed with an economic environment of lackluster global trade, not enough jobs coupled with skills mismatches, continued globalization and technological change, greater income inequality, unprecedented population aging in richer countries, and youth bulges in the poorer ones. This essay examines how seven key countries fared from 1990-2010 in their development quest. The sample includes seven developing countries--Botswana, Ghana, Nigeria, Zambia, India, Vietnam and Brazil--all of which experienced rapid growth in recent years, but for different reasons. The patterns of growth are analyzed in each of these countries using a unifying framework which draws a distinction between the "structural transformation" and "fundamentals" challenge in growth. Out of these seven countries, the traditional path to rapid growth of export oriented industrialization only played a significant role in Vietnam.
    JEL: O11
    Date: 2017–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp17-024&r=ltv

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