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on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages |
| By: | Autor, David (MIT); Chin, Caroline (MIT); Salomons, Anna (Tilburg University and Utrecht University); Seegmiller, Bryan (Northwestern University) |
| Abstract: | We study the role of expertise in new work—novel occupational roles that emerge as technological and economic conditions evolve—using newly available 1940 and 1950 Census Complete Count files and confidential American Community Survey data from 2011–2023. We show that new work is systematically distinct from simply more work in existing occupations in four respects. First, it attracts workers with distinct characteristics: new work is disproportionately performed by younger and more educated workers, even within detailed occupation-industry cells. Second, new work commands wage premiums that persist beyond workers’ initial entry into new work, consistent with returns to scarce, specialized expertise rather than temporary market disequilibrium. Third, these premiums decline across vintages as expertise diffuses, with ‘newer’ new work commanding larger premiums. Fourth, the emergence of new work can be traced to regional demand shocks, suggesting that expertise formation responds to economic opportunities. These findings suggest that new work is a countervailing force to automation-driven job displacement not merely by creating additional employment, butby generating new domains of human expertise that command market premiums. |
| Keywords: | new work, technological change, occupations, tasks |
| JEL: | E24 J11 J23 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18504 |
| By: | Bagger, Jesper (University of Edinburgh); Elholm, Malthe (Aarhus University); Maibom, Jonas (Aarhus University); Vejlin, Rune (Aarhus University) |
| Abstract: | Using 1980--2019 Danish matched employer-employee data, we unpack the rise in wage sorting - the correlation between worker and firm wage fixed effects (Abowd et al., 1999) - from 0.06 to 0.18. The rise is driven entirely by reallocation of employment from persistently low-sorting to persistently high-sorting firms, with the average sorting contribution of any given firm remaining stable over time. A decomposition shows that 60 % reflects reallocation among surviving firms and 40 % firm turnover through entry and exit. Regression analysis identifies firm entry and exit and industry reallocation as the dominant firm-side drivers, and rising educational attainment as the key worker-side factor - reflecting concentration of educated workers in high-sorting firms rather than a systematic tendency of educated workers to form high-sorting matches across all employers. Event studies establish direct job-to-job moves as the primary mechanism through which reallocation is implemented at the worker-level. |
| Keywords: | wage inequality, wage sorting, firm dynamics, employment reallocation, job-to-job mobility, matched employer-employee data |
| JEL: | E24 J21 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18502 |
| By: | Lodefalk, Magnus (The Ratio Institute); Löthman, Lydia (The Ratio Institute); Koch, Michael (The Ratio Institute); Engberg, Erik (The Ratio Institute) |
| Abstract: | We show that the age composition of employment within Swedish employers shifts after the arrival of generative AI, with no corresponding reduction in aggregate labour demand. Using 4.6 million job advertisements from Sweden's largest recruitment platform, we find that the broad decline in postings since 2022 aligns with monetary tightening rather than AI, exploiting Sweden's seven-month gap between the Riksbank's first rate hike and the launch of ChatGPT as a timing test. We then use full-population employer–employee register data and an employer-level difference-in-differences design to estimate how AI exposure affects employment composition across six age groups. An event study documents an accelerating decline in employment of 22–25-year-olds in high-AI-exposure occupations, reaching 5.5 per cent by early 2025 relative to less exposed occupations within the same employers, while employment of workers over 50 rose by 1.3 per cent. The widening age gradient suggests that generative AI reshapes hiring composition rather than aggregate demand, with the adjustment burden falling disproportionately on entry-level workers. |
| Keywords: | Generative artificial intelligence; Job postings; Labour demand; Employment composition; Monetary policy |
| JEL: | J23 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–03–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ratioi:0388 |
| By: | El-Haddad, Amirah (German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)); Krafft, Caroline (University of Minnesota); Selwaness, Irene (Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Cairo University); Assaad, Ragui (University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the determinants and dynamics of labour demand and specifically informal labour in Egypt’s manufacturing sector, using nationally representative firm-level data. We analyse the determinants of total employment, the share of informal labour, and its average annual change over the firm life cycle. Three key findings emerge. First, employment is positively associated with capital, exporting, innovation, industrial zones, worker training, and managerial education, and negatively associated with sole proprietorships, wages, and total factor productivity. Second, informal employment is more common among private sector firms, sole proprietorships, and firms using more part-time workers, and less prevalent among firms adopting technology or led by more educated managers. Third, although most formal firms exhibit no change in the share of informal workers, formal firms that did not initially employ informal labour tend to increase their informal share, while firms that formalised continue to rely heavily on informal employment. Together, these findings underscore the persistence of informality and limited transitions toward full formalisation within Egypt’s formal manufacturing sector. |
| Keywords: | Manufacturing, labour demand, informality, Egypt |
| JEL: | J23 L6 L11 O17 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18500 |
| By: | Daniel Goller; Enzo Brox; Stefan C. Wolter |
| Abstract: | Why do young people sort into poorly fitting occupations? This paper shows that imperfect self-knowledge about skills is an important source of skill mismatch at labor market entry. We use unique data from standardized professional aptitude tests linked to administrative records on educational trajectories and early labor market outcomes in Switzerland. The data allow us to observe objective skills and subjective skill beliefs for many productivity-relevant skills in a high-stakes setting. We document large differences among individuals in how well their beliefs align with their skills. Imperfect self-knowledge predicts misaligned occupational aspirations, higher realized skill mismatch, and a higher probability of dropout. Guided by a Roy-style model of occupational choice with imperfect self-knowledge, we interpret these findings as evidence that distorted self-assessments at the school-to-work transition contribute to the misallocation of talent. |
| Keywords: | Information frictions, Occupational choice, Skill mismatch, Self-knowledge |
| JEL: | D83 J24 J41 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0253 |
| By: | Pulito, Giuseppe (ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin); Pytlikova, Mariola (CERGE-EI Prague); Schroeder, Sarah (Aarhus University and Ratio Institute); Lodefalk, Magnus (Orebro University, Ratio Institute, GLO) |
| Abstract: | Using surveys of Danish firms and individuals linked to employer–employee administrative data, we analyze AI adoption across technologies, business functions, and workers. We show that AI adoption is driven primarily by firm capacities rather than performance. Adoption is strongly associated with firm size, digital infrastructure, and workforce composition, particularly education and STEM intensity, while productivity and capital intensity explain little of the variation. Conditional on AI adoption, larger and more digitally mature firms deploy advanced technologies more broadly. Moreover, AI technologies diffuse across multiple business functions while other advanced technologies remain function-specific. Individual-level evidence mirrors these patterns and points towards workforce readiness as a key determinant of AI adoption. Finally, commonly used occupational AI exposure measures vary substantially in their ability to predict actual adoption, with benchmark-based measures outperforming patent-based and LLM-focused alternatives. These findings show that treating AI as a monolithic category obscures economically meaningful variation in who adopts, what they deploy, and how well existing measures capture it. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence, technology adoption, digitalisation, human capital, AI exposure measures |
| JEL: | D24 J23 J62 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18515 |
| By: | Leland D. Crane; Paul E. Soto |
| Abstract: | We evaluate whether LLMs have had any discernible impact on the aggregate labor market so far. We focus on occupations that are computer programming-intensive, motivated by data showing that coding is one of the most LLM-exposed tasks. Linking O*NET to CPS we find that aggregate employment of coders has decelerated sharply since the introduction of ChatGPT. Using a novel control variable for industry-level shocks we show that the deceleration is not attributable to the exposure of coders to slowing industries, suggesting instead that coders experienced an occupation-specific shock around the introduction of ChatGPT. Coder employment has continued to grow in recent years, though much more slowly than it did pre-2022. We validate the industry-level control variable by examining historical examples of occupations that experienced either occupation-specific or industry-level shocks. We also provide statistics on the agreement rates between different measures of AI exposure. |
| Keywords: | Labor demand; Machine learning; Shocks |
| JEL: | J23 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–03–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:102997 |
| By: | Serdar Birinci; Loukas Karabarbounis; Kurt See |
| Abstract: | In the 1990s, Americans used to work much more than non-Americans. Nowadays, about half of the gap in hours worked has reversed. To evaluate the convergence of working hours, we develop a tractable model of labor supply enriched with multiple sources of heterogeneity across individuals, an extensive margin of participation, multi-member households, and an elaborate system of taxes and benefits upon non-employment. Using detailed measurements from micro-level and aggregate datasets, we identify model parameters and sources of heterogeneity across individuals for various countries. We run a horse race between competing explanations and find that U.S. hours per person declined after 2000 owing mainly to the rise of government health benefits provided to the non-employed. Non-U.S. countries have generous benefits for the non-employed, but this generosity has not changed as much over time as in the United States, and public health coverage does not depend on employment status or income levels. For these countries, the rise of labor supply is generally accounted for by a mix of factors, such as the rise of wages and the falling disutility of work. |
| JEL: | E24 E60 H53 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35020 |
| By: | Portes, Jonathan (King's College London); Springford, John (Centre for European Reform) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the causal impact of Brexit on migrant employment in the United Kingdom using a synthetic difference-in-differences (SDID) framework. We construct a counterfactual trajectory for the UK based on a weighted combination of comparable European economies and compare post-referendum outcomes to this benchmark. Rather than analysing migration flows, which are subject to substantial revision and comparability issues, we focus on employment stocks of foreign-born workers using administrative payroll data. We find that Brexit led to a large compositional shift in migrant labour supply and a modest change in its overall size. Employment of EU-origin workers declined substantially relative to the counterfactual following the 2016 referendum and the subsequent end of free movement. However, this decline was more than offset by a sharp increase in employment among non-EU workers after the introduction of the post-Brexit immigration system in 2021. By 2024, total foreign-born employment is about 0.6% higher than in the absence of Brexit. Brexit did not reduce migrant labour supply as widely expected, but instead reconfigured its composition, and highlight the interaction between migration policy and labour demand. |
| Keywords: | immigration, employment, UK, Brexit, synthetic differences in differences |
| JEL: | J61 J21 F22 J23 C23 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18478 |
| By: | Taylor Jaworski; Carl T. Kitchens; Luke P. Rodgers |
| Abstract: | We examine how the World War I agricultural commodity price boom affected human capital accumulation during the early decades of the high school movement in the United States. First, based on newly collected county-level enrollment data, we show that enrollment and average daily attendance fell sharply at the peak of the boom. Second, using linked census data between 1910 and 1940, we find that greater exposure during teenage years reduced completed schooling by 0.27 to 0.47 years, with the largest effects concentrated in high school. For younger children, the net effect of increased household resources depends on local child labor intensity: the positive effect of higher parental income on completed schooling is offset in counties where child labor was prevalent. Our results are consistent with dynamic complementarities in skill formation whose effects on lifetime schooling are mediated by the opportunity cost of child labor. |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J13 J24 N30 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35032 |
| By: | Andreas F. Buehler; Patrick Lehnert; Harald Pfeifer |
| Abstract: | We examine whether exposure to climate change-related natural disasters is associated with adolescents' aspirations to work in green occupation. Understanding adolescents' aspirations for such occupations is crucial for ensuring a workforce with green skills to contribute to the mitigation of climate change. Combining individual-level data on occupational aspirations, job task data for measuring the greenness of occupations, and administrative data on disaster events, we find that adolescents who were exposed to a natural disaster aspire to occupations with a higher percentage of green job tasks. The result of this exposure is stronger for individuals who are more environmentally aware or more likely to believe that environmental issues will improve. |
| Keywords: | Green Occupations, Natural Disasters, Aspirations, Occupational Choices |
| JEL: | J24 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0254 |
| By: | Yudai Higashi (Faculty of Economics, Kyoto Sangyo University and Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN); Masaru Sasaki (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University, JAPAN and Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), GERMANY) |
| Abstract: | In Japan, many establishments adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic have received an Employment Adjustment Subsidy (EAS) to maintain employment. Beyond subsidizing temporary leave allowances, the EAS also includes a scheme that subsidizes employee training provided by establishments. Using establishment-level administrative data, this study examines the characteristics of establishments providing EAS-supported training to their employees and evaluates its effects on the probability of establishment closure, employment flows, and business activity levels during the pandemic. The results indicate that establishments with workforce compositions and industry affiliations linked with higher expected returns to human capital investment are more likely to provide EAS-supported training. Furthermore, the EAS-supported training provided early during the pandemic reduced the probability of establishment closures. Although this training temporarily increased the hiring rate during the EAS receipt period, this effect did not persist once receipt ended. There is no evidence that EAS-supported training reduced job separation rates or improved subjective business activity levels. Overall, the effects of EAS-supported training appear limited. |
| Keywords: | Employment adjustment subsidy; Training; Establishment closure; Employment flow; Business activity; COVID-19 Pandemic |
| JEL: | H25 J24 J63 L25 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2026-11 |
| By: | Lutz Hendricks; Tatyana Koreshkova; Oksana Leukhina |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of expanding high-quality public university capacities on student earnings and welfare. Using a quantitative model of college choice, we find that expanding the most selective colleges by 20 percent increases aggregate earnings by 0.8 percent and welfare by 2 percent. The gains arise because a large number of high-ability students are rationed out of selective colleges. When admitted, these students graduate at high rates and enjoy substantial earnings gains. The earnings gains generated by expanding college capacity are eight times larger than the fiscal cost of financing it. These findings remain robust when we account for peer effects in learning and general equilibrium changes in the college wage premium. |
| Keywords: | college quality; human capital; public finance of higher education |
| JEL: | J24 |
| Date: | 2026–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:102965 |
| By: | Lizardi, Eduardo (Department of Health Economics and Management, University of Oslo); Fevang, Elisabeth (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research); Kverndokk, Snorre (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research); Røed, Knut (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | Using Norwegian administrative register data, we show that having a lone parent in the terminal stage of life or close to a nursing home admission has a small negative effect on the offspring’s labor supply, both at the extensive and the intensive margins. While the effects at the intensive margin are reversed after the parent is admitted to nursing home or dies, the negative employment effects are not. We provide evidence indicating that labor supply changes around these critical events are primarily driven by income effects related to a realized or forthcoming inheritance and not by care requirements. Given the scale and quality of publicly provided long-term care in Norway, we conclude that while a parent’s need for care does trigger a significant rise in offspring’s (particularly daughters’) short-term absence from work, it does not noticeably affect their overall employment and earnings. |
| Keywords: | long-term care, labor supply of offspring, inheritance |
| JEL: | J14 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18508 |
| By: | Dykstra, Holly (University of Konstanz); Fernández Guerrico, Sofía (University of Konstanz) |
| Abstract: | Income-based rents in public housing create an earnings disincentive. We collaborate with a public housing authority to design a behaviorally informed program that returns part of the rent induced by higher earnings to residents. Importantly, the program automatically enrolled households and was explicitly designed to make the increased payoff to working salient. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we estimate that annual household-head earnings rise 17% ($1, 370/year) and public assistance falls 7.5%, with impacts on both intensive and extensive margins. These results provide evidence that an in-work benefit designed for salience can offset the earnings disincentive and affect follow-through labor market behavior. |
| Keywords: | labor supply, in-work benefits, salience, public housing |
| JEL: | D91 I38 J22 R38 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18483 |
| By: | Mark Borgschulte; Heepyung Cho; Darren Lubotsky |
| Abstract: | We examine the differential effects of minimum wages on immigrant and native workers in the United States. We find that minimum wage increases lead to reduced hours of work among immigrants with no effect on their employment. The effects are concentrated among recently-arrived, likely-undocumented workers in high turnover industries. Native workers show no such response, even when examining native subgroups with similar characteristics to the most affected immigrants. We conclude that affected immigrant labor markets feature low-surplus, low-investment employment relationships with flexible hours, but they are embedded in labor markets where replacement is unusually costly. |
| JEL: | J08 J15 J38 J42 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35038 |
| By: | Daniel J. Wilson; Xiaoqing Zhou |
| Abstract: | From early 2021 to early 2024, the U.S. experienced an unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration, followed by a rapid slowdown beginning in mid-2024. We provide the first systematic empirical assessment of the labor- and housing-market effects of this episode. Using newly available administrative microdata on individual immigrants, we construct measures of net unauthorized immigration at the national and local levels and exploit plausibly exogenous variation across local markets. We find that unauthorized immigrant worker flows (UIWF) increased local employment approximately one-for-one, without significant declines in local wages. These inflows also raised local house prices and rents without expanding housing supply, consistent with a housing demand shock in the face of short-run inelastic supply. Lastly, we find that UIWF reduced labor income per capita, consistent with downward wage composition of the local workforce, and strongly reduced government transfers. These findings should help inform policy debates surrounding how unauthorized immigrant labor supply impacts local labor and housing markets as well as public finances. |
| Keywords: | immigration; labor market; housing market; unauthorized immigration; post-pandemic |
| JEL: | E24 H53 J11 J21 J22 J23 J31 J61 R31 |
| Date: | 2026–03–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:102961 |
| By: | Claudia Collodoro (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy); Lucrezia Fanti (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy - Instituto di Economia, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa, Italy); Jacopo Staccioli (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy - Instituto di Economia, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa, Italy); Maria Enrica Virgillito (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy - Instituto di Economia, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa, Italy) |
| Abstract: | This work provides a comprehensive large-scale analysis of artificial intelligence-based worker management (AIWM) systems from an industry-wide exposure perspective focusing on traditional industries. We begin by examining the knowledge production underlying these workforce management tools and leverage technology patent-classification to identify their dynamics and specific features. For this purpose, we use patent data retrieved from Orbis Intellectual Property covering the years 1975 to 2022, considering patents filed with both the EPO and the USPTO. Furthermore, to identify patents related to AIWM heuristics, we retrieve their full text from Google Patents and conduct a textual analysis using a dependency parsing algorithm. Finally, using the dictionary of human tasks provided by O*NET, we construct a measure of exposure to AIWM systems for individual human tasks and occupations. Linking the technological and labour market domains, we find that the professions most exposed to AIWM systems are those at the top of organisational hierarchies. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence Worker Management, Sector-level Analysis, Patenting Activity, Techno-organisational Change |
| JEL: | O14 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie5:dipe0056 |
| By: | Hiroyuki Nishiyama (University of Hyogo); Mina Nakano (University of Hyogo); Manabu Furuta (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Mizuki Tsuboi (University of Hyogo) |
| Abstract: | We examine how workers’ collective voice affects union and nonunion wages both theoretically and empirically. We develop a simple union model with a social insurance system and show that, due to two counteracting forces in bargaining, higher bargaining power raises both union and nonunion wages when ex-ante bargaining power is low but lowers them when it is sufficiently high. Using Japanese household-level data, we document an inverted U-shaped relationship between bargaining power and wages for both groups. Applying entropy balancing, we confirm that union wages are maximized at about 70 percent bargaining power, compared with 44 percent for nonunion wages. Given Japan’s current level of about 25 percent, stronger bargaining power and a rising societal willingness to improve working conditions are likely to benefit union members and also nonunion members once under union coverage. |
| Keywords: | Collective Voice; Union Wages; Nonunion Wages; Bargaining Power; Japan |
| JEL: | J31 J51 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koe:wpaper:2605 |
| By: | Helal, Al Mansor; Hiraki, Ryotaro; Patrinos, Harry Anthony |
| Abstract: | This study examines the economic returns to education in the U.S. using 2024 CPS data and compares Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression with a Double Machine Learning (DML) framework incorporating models such as random forests, boosted trees, lasso, GAMs, and neural networks (MLP). Results show consistent returns of 8 to 9 percent per additional year of schooling across methods. Simulations reveal that all predictors perform well under linear assumptions if hyperparameters are optimally adjusted, while OLS/Lasso suffer from nonlinearity. Findings suggest that OLS remains robust in low-dimensional, near-linear contexts, offering practical guidance for economists and policymakers balancing model complexity and interpretability in education research. |
| Keywords: | Returns to education, Machine learning |
| JEL: | I20 J31 J24 D62 O15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1733 |
| By: | Osborne Jackson |
| Abstract: | Proficiency in a country’s primary language is a skill that can be expected to improve labor market outcomes. Considering the United States specifically, individuals with strong English-language skills presumably could fare better in US labor markets compared with individuals who are less proficient in the language. These benefits potentially are most relevant for immigrants since their English proficiency may be lower on average than it is for natives. Given the importance of immigration to the economy of New England, where it plays a central role in population growth and where foreign-born persons comprise one-fifth of the labor force, the impact of increased English proficiency on labor market outcomes may be particularly relevant for the region. |
| Keywords: | New England; English proficiency; labor market outcomes; language skills; earnings; immigration |
| JEL: | J24 J30 J64 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbcr:103017 |
| By: | Cygan-Rehm, Kamila (Dresden University of Technology (TUD)); Westphal, Matthias (FernUni Hagen, RWI) |
| Abstract: | This paper replicates and extends the evidence on the lifetime effects of school starting age on earnings by Fredriksson and Öckert (2014) for Sweden. Using German data for individuals born between 1945 and 1965, we examine a more rigid system of ability tracking in secondary education, a potential driver of long-term effects. We confirm negligible effects of later school entry for men and positive effects for women. These gender differences arise despite similar effects on educational attainment. By unfolding the gender gaps over the lifecycle, assessing fertility decisions, and maternal employment around the first birth, we show that childbirth postponement and increased labor market attachment after the first birth seem to be plausible mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | school starting age, lifetime effects, education, gender gaps |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I26 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18503 |
| By: | Uberti, Luca (University of Milano Bicocca); Imami, Drini (Agricultural University of Tirana); Mendola, Mariapia (University of Milan Bicocca) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of an election campaign on the labor market outcomes of incumbent party supporters. Using unique data on voters’ political preferences during a pre-election period in Albania and a DiD design that compares the evolution of outcomes among close neighbours, we show that supporting the ruling party significantly increases individuals’ employment and earnings. This labor market premium is particularly large among individuals with low costs of campaign participation, while atronage jobs are concentrated in lower-tier public sector positions. Administrative data further reveal that the allocation of jobs to party supporters is strongly associated with a higher vote share for the incumbent. These findings suggest that parties strategically allocate public employment to reward grassroots supporters and mobilize votes, a practice that fosters corruption and weakens democratic institutions. |
| Keywords: | job patronage, political corruption, vote-buying, Albania, post-communist transition |
| JEL: | D72 D73 H83 J45 M59 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18510 |
| By: | David A. Matsa; Amalia R. Miller |
| Abstract: | We study Germany’s landmark quota requiring major public companies to include at least one woman on their top executive teams. The quota increased female representation among top executives by about two-thirds. Firms largely recruited women from outside their networks and without prior public-company top-executive experience, choosing them over male candidates with similar profiles. Most were appointed to HR or niche roles, and there was no increase in female CEOs. We find no significant effects on the female share of managers in lower ranks, policies promoting gender equality, firm value, or performance. Overall, the quota boosted diversity without causing much disruption. |
| JEL: | G34 G38 J44 J71 J78 K22 K31 M51 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35030 |
| By: | Laroche, Patrice (Université de Lorraine); Bryson, Alex (University College London); Joshi, Heather (UCL); Wilkinson, David (UCL) |
| Abstract: | Ours is the first meta-analysis synthesizing results from econometric studies carried out in the UK to assess the size of the gender wage gap (GWG). Drawing on 90 primary studies published between 1974 and 2024 we assess trends in the gap and identify the substantive and methodological factors that explain variance in results across studies. Expressed relative to men’s earnings, the raw GWG averages 25 log points but falls to 13 log points when adjusting for covariates. There has been convergence in the mean wages of men and women at a rate of about 0.3 percentage points per annum, most of which reflects change in the characteristics of workers and their treatment in the labour market rather than differences over time in study characteristics. There is substantial heterogeneity in the size of the GWG by year of observation, worker type and research design, although differences in the size of adjusted GWG by study design are not as large as most economists might imagine. |
| Keywords: | gender wage gap, meta-analysis, UK |
| JEL: | J16 J31 J71 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18484 |
| By: | Buhai, Ioan-Sebastian (Stockholm University - SOFI, UC Chile - Instituto de Economia, University of Minho - NIPE) |
| Abstract: | Extreme economic outcomes are not shaped by tails alone. They are also shaped by unequal access to opportunities. This paper develops a theory of heterogeneous extremes by taking the distribution of opportunity access as the object of study. In a mixed Poisson search setting, normalized maxima admit a Laplace mixture representation that yields order comparisons and a clean benchmark against the homogeneous economy. The main contribution is geometric: a canonical coupling turns differences in heterogeneity into optimal transport bounds for the whole induced law of extremes, the full schedule of top quantiles, and structured counterfactual paths between economies. The paper also derives a second order expansion that separates classical extreme value approximation error from heterogeneity effects. As a complementary normative exercise, it studies an entropy regularized design problem for reallocating opportunities under a mean constraint. A stylized labor market network application interprets heterogeneity as unequal access to job opportunities and shows how the framework can be used for tail counterfactuals and robustness analysis of top wage distributions. |
| Keywords: | extreme value theory, heterogeneous search, optimal transport, Wasserstein distance, entropic design, labor market networks |
| JEL: | C46 C61 D83 D85 J31 J64 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18511 |
| By: | Laszlo Goerke (Institute for Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union (IAAEU), Trier University); Sven A. Hartmann (Institute for Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union (IAAEU), Trier University); Yue Huang (Institute for Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union (IAAEU), Trier University) |
| Abstract: | Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we provide a comprehensive investigation of the relationship between workplace co-determination in the form of works councils and income satisfaction. Controlling for a wide range of individual, job-related, and firm-level characteristics in OLS and fixed effects specifications, we observe that employees working in establishments with a works council report significantly higher income satisfaction compared to their counterparts in non-co- determined firms. The rank in the income distribution, the perceived fairness of the wage, and working conditions emerge as quantitatively relevant factors in explaining the positive correlation. |
| Keywords: | Co-determination; income satisfaction; SOEP |
| JEL: | I31 J28 J50 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iaa:dpaper:202602 |
| By: | Bagues, Manuel (University of Warwick); Makany, Milan (Erasmus University); Vattuone, Giulia (SOFI, Stockholm University); Zinovyeva, Natalia (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | We study how faculty promotion decisions shape women's careers and the academic pipeline, using data from 4, 000 Spanish university departments across all disciplines. We identify exogenous variation in promotions using the random assignment of evaluators to promotion committees between 2002 and 2008: applicants whose committees included a co-author or colleague were significantly more likely to qualify for promotion. We document two main findings. First, failing to obtain tenure has asymmetrically lasting consequences for women. Those who narrowly miss tenure are 57 percentage points less likely to be tenured fifteen years later, compared to 29 percentage points for men. Second, when women do obtain tenure, the effects extend well beyond their own careers: promoting a woman to Associate Professor increases female faculty by 1.5 members after 15 years, leads to six additional female PhD graduates over the following decade, and raises the number who subsequently remain in academia and reach tenured positions. |
| Keywords: | academic promotions, women in academia, natural experiment |
| JEL: | I23 J16 J44 M51 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18477 |
| By: | Ejermo, Olof (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Holmström, Peter (Department of Economic History, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | Using population-wide data on Swedish university researchers and teachers, we identify the effects of parenthood on academic careers. Leveraging staggered event-study models that compare mothers and fathers around first birth, we document widening gender gaps in publication output, wage income, promotion, and PhD completion. These gaps arise across all scientific fields. We further document substantial gender differences prior to first birth and among never-parents, indicating that child-related penalties explain only part of the overall academic gender gap. |
| Keywords: | academic careers; child penalty; parenthood; gender gap; Sweden; staggered; event study; research productivity |
| JEL: | C23 I23 J13 J16 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:luekhi:0266 |