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on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages |
| By: | Jose Garcia-Louzao (Lietuvos Bankas; Vilniaus Universitetas; CESifo); Linas Tarasonis (Lietuvos Bankas; Vilniaus Universitetas) |
| Abstract: | Using Social Security records between 2000 and 2020, we provide a comprehensive analysis of labor earnings inequality and its dynamics over the course of Lithuania’s economic development. Since 2000, there has been a substantial decline in earnings inequality, largely driven by the rapid growth of earnings at the bottom of the distribution, while earnings volatility has hardly changed. Importantly, we estimate a relatively high sensitivity of earnings growth to changes in real GDP, which declines with the level of permanent income. Additionally, we find that the idiosyncratic earnings risk of individuals at the bottom of the permanent income distribution is less sensitive to aggregate growth than that of individuals in the top half. Taken together, our findings underscore that analyzing earnings risk is critical to properly understanding the dynamics of inequality and designing effective policies to address it |
| Keywords: | Income inequality, income risk, income mobility, administrative data |
| JEL: | D31 E24 J31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fme:wpaper:105 |
| By: | Filippo Biondi (Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics); Sergio Inferrera (Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance); Matthias Mertens (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Javier Miranda (Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), Friedrich-Schiller University, and CompNet) |
| Abstract: | We study changes in job reallocation in Europe after 2000 using novel micro-aggregated data that we collected for 19 European countries. In all countries, we document broad-based declines in job reallocation rates that concern most economic sectors and size classes. These declines are mainly driven by dynamics within sectors, size, and age classes rather than by compositional changes. Simultaneously, employment shares of young firms decline. Consistent with US evidence, firms’ employment has become less responsive to productivity shocks. However, the dispersion of firms’ productivity shocks has decreased too. To enhance our understanding of these patterns, we derive and apply a firm-level framework that relates changes in firms’ market power, labor market imperfections, and production technology to firms’ responsiveness and job reallocation. Using German firm-level data, we find that changes in markups and labor output elasticities, rather than adjustment costs, are key in rationalizing declining responsiveness. |
| Keywords: | Business dynamism, job reallocation, productivity, responsiveness of labor demand, market power, technology, European cross-country data |
| JEL: | D24 D43 J21 J23 J42 L11 L25 |
| Date: | 2025–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2025-0004 |
| By: | Eren Gürer (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey); Erol Taymaz (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of domestic outsourcing on the wages of workers performing outsourced tasks in Türkiye, using an administrative employee-employer linked dataset. Outsourcing events are identified by tracking worker flows across firms with specific properties. Unlike existing studies, our dataset incorporates buyer-supplier transactions, enabling us to confirm that a relationship between the predecessor and successor firm begins following the outsourcing event. This improves our ability to identify outsourcing events, which we use to explore wage effects of both high-skilled and low-skilled outsourcing. Our findings indicate that low-skilled workers experience wage losses from domestic outsourcing, while high-skilled, professional workers benefit, suggesting that domestic outsourcing may be one of the factors contributing to rising wage inequality. |
| Keywords: | domestic outsourcing, subcontracting, wage inequality |
| JEL: | J31 J41 L24 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:2501 |
| By: | Marion Leroutier (CREST-ENSAE Paris); Hélène Ollivier (Paris School of Economics, CNRS) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that even moderate air pollution levels, such as those in Europe, harm the economy by reducing firm performance. Using monthly firm-level data from France, we estimate the causal impact of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on sales and worker absenteeism. Leveraging exogenous pollution shocks from local wind direction changes, we find that a 10 percent increase in monthly PM2.5 exposure reduces firm sales by 0.4 percent on average over the next two months, with sector-specific variation. Simultaneously, sick leave rises by 1 percent. However, this labor supply reduction explains only a small part of the sales decline. Our evidence suggests that air pollution also reduces worker productivity and dampens local demand. Aligning air quality with WHO guidelines would yield economic benefits on par with the costs of regulation or the health benefits from reduced mortality. |
| Keywords: | Cost of air pollution, Absenteeism, Firm performance |
| JEL: | Q53 I1 J22 |
| Date: | 2025–02–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crs:wpaper:2025-05 |
| By: | Kaitila, Ville |
| Abstract: | Abstract We analyse the development of labour productivity in five service industries in Europe, the United States, and Japan. Vis-à-vis a group of peer countries, labour productivity in service industries is relatively low in Finland. We further find that the respective gap in capital intensity (capital stock to hours worked) is even greater. Using the growth accounting framework and panel estimations, we find that in 1995–2023 overall capital intensity was positively associated with the level of labour productivity in European countries. This is also the case if the capital stock is disaggregated into four parts with ICT, R&D, software and database, and all other capital analysed separately. Furthermore, the annual change in overall capital intensity, or capital deepening, is positively associated with the change in labour productivity in service industries. The association is weaker when capital is disaggregated into parts, with the strongest association found for the traditional capital stock, while the results for ICT and IPP capital deepening depend on the service industry analysed. |
| Keywords: | Service industries, Productivity, Capital intensity, ICT, R&D, Software and databases |
| JEL: | C23 O14 O30 O47 |
| Date: | 2025–03–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:127 |
| By: | Arnaud Natal (BSE (University of Bordeaux, CNRS, and INRAE), French Institute of Pondicherry (IFP)); Christophe Jalil Nordman (IRD, LEDa-DIAL (IRD, CNRS, and PSL Research University), France, IFP (Pondicherry, India)) |
| Abstract: | For over 40 years, labour supply has been at the heart of empirical microeconomics, but few studies have examined the impact of household debt burdens on labour supply, and almost none on countries of the Global South. This research fills this gap by examining how debt burden - measured by the debt service ratio - affects labour supply, in particular hours worked, among more than 3200 individuals in rural Tamil Nadu, India, between 2016-17 and 2020-21. Using a Heckman correction with lagged debt ratios and fixed effects to account for unobserved factors and limit reverse causality, the study highlights a striking result: women increase their labour supply to repay household debt, regardless of which household member incurred it. Our results challenge the commonly held view in the South that women’s work is synonymous with empowerment, suggesting that it may be the result of economic pressures rather than a move towards autonomy. |
| Keywords: | Caste, gender, empowerment, labour supply, microcredit |
| JEL: | D13 G51 J21 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt202501 |
| By: | Bettina Bruggemann; Zachary L. Mahone; Thomas Palmer |
| Abstract: | Ownership changes are common across firms of all sizes, and they have meaningful impacts on firm performance. Using a panel of Canadian administrative data we document that sales are an important margin in the firm life cycle, larger than exit rates for employer firms. Applying an event-study framework, we find that (a) survival rates initially decline post sale, leveling off after three years and (b) conditional on survival, profits are permanently higher. Embedding ownership changes in a model of firm dynamics, we find that 4.5% of entrants survive due to the option value of sale and that, within ten years from birth, 13% of dispersion in firm size is attributable to realized ownership changes. Moreover, ownership changes are particularly important for high productivity firms, accounting for one quarter of revenue concentration among the top 1% of businesses. |
| Keywords: | Firm Dynamics; Ownership Changes; Firm Concentration |
| JEL: | E0 L25 D22 M13 G30 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcm:deptwp:2025-03 |
| By: | Ufuk Akcigit (University of Chicago); Raman S. Chhina (University of Chicago); Seyit Cilasun (TED University); Javier Miranda (Halle Institute for Economic Research, and Friedrich-Schiller University Jena); Nicolas Serrano-Velarde (Bocconi University) |
| Abstract: | Utilizing near real-time QuickBooks data from over 1.6 million small businesses and a targeted survey, this paper highlights the critical role credit card financing plays for small business activity. We examine a two year period beginning in January of 2021. A turbulent period during which, credit card usage by small U.S. businesses nearly doubled, interest payments rose by 60%, and delinquencies reached 2.8%. We find, first, monthly credit card payments were up to three times higher than loan payments during this time. Second, we use targeted surveys of these small businesses to establish credit cards as a key financing source in response to firm-level shocks, such as uncertain cash flows and overdue invoices. Third, we establish the importance of credit cards as an important financial transmission mechanism. Following the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes in early 2022, banks cut credit card supply, leading to a 15.75% drop in balances and a 10% decline in revenue growth, as well as a 1.5% decrease in employment growth among U.S. small businesses. These higher rates also rendered interest payments unsustainable for many, contributing to half of the observed increase in delinquencies. Lastly, a simple heterogeneous firm model with a cash-in-hand constraint illustrates the significant macroeconomic impact of credit card financing on small business activity. |
| Keywords: | Small Businesses, Entrepreneurship, Credit Cards, Credit, Job Creation, Turnover |
| JEL: | J23 J63 O47 |
| Date: | 2025–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2025-0003 |
| By: | Gabriella Conti (University College London); Rita Ginja (University of Bergen); Petra Persson; Barton Willage (University of Delaware) |
| Abstract: | The motherhood penalty is well-documented, but what happens at the other end of the reproductive spectrum? Menopause—a transition often marked by debilitating physical and psychological symptoms—also entails substantial costs. Using population-wide Norwegian and Swedish data and quasi-experimental methods, we show that a menopause diagnosis leads to lasting drops in earnings and employment, alongside greater reliance on social transfers. The impact is especially severe for women with lower socioeconomic status. Increasing access to menopause-related health care can help offset these losses. Our findings reveal the hidden economic toll of menopause and the potential gains from better support policies. |
| Keywords: | Norway, Sweden, quasi-experimental variation, social transfers, low socioeconomic status |
| JEL: | H72 I00 I30 J21 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2025-002 |