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on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages |
| By: | Raphael Auer; David Kopfer; Josef Sveda |
| Abstract: | How exposed is the labour market to ever-advancing AI capabilities, to what extent does this substitute human labour, and how will it affect inequality? We address these questions in a simulation of 711 US occupations classified by the importance and level of cognitive skills. We base our simulations on the notion that AI can only perform skills that are within its capabilities and involve computer interaction. At low AI capabilities, 7% of skills are exposed to AI uniformly across the wage spectrum. At moderate and high AI capabilities, 17% and 36% of skills are exposed on average, and up to 45% in the highest wage quartile. Examining complementary versus substitution, we model the impact on side versus core occupational skills. For example, AI capable of bookkeeping helps doctors with administrative work, freeing up time for medical examinations, but risks the jobs of bookkeepers. We find that low AI capabilities complement all workers, as side skills are simpler than core skills. However, as AI capabilities advance, core skills in lower-wage jobs become exposed, threatening substitution and increased inequality. In contrast to the intuitive notion that the rise of AI may harm white-collar workers, we find that those remain safe longer as their core skills are hard to automate. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence, automation, chatGPT, employment, GPT, inequality, labour market, LLM, technology, wage |
| JEL: | E24 E51 G21 G28 J23 J24 M48 O30 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2025/6 |
| By: | Ek, Simon (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy) |
| Abstract: | Are workers with poor outside opportunities less responsive and more susceptible to negative demand shifts in routine occupations? To answer this, I create and estimate an occupation specialization index (OSI) using Swedish register data and machine Learning tools. It measures the expected utility difference between a worker’s occupation and his best outside option. This determines the loss he is willing to tolerate to avoid switching. Low-OSI generalists disproportionately left routine work. Their future wage growth was comparable to similar workers initially in non-routine occupations. By contrast, routine specialists largely stayed put and experienced lower wage growth than generalists and non-routine specialists. |
| Keywords: | Multidimensional skills; Occupational structure changes |
| JEL: | J23 J24 J31 J62 |
| Date: | 2025–05–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2025_007 |
| By: | Narazani, Edlira |
| Abstract: | In December 2024, Spain's government reached an agreement with the country's major trade unions to reduce the standard workweek to 37.5 hours without wage cuts by the end of 2025. This paper provides an ex-ante assessment of the proposed reform using EUROLAB, a discrete choice labour supply model based on EU-SILC 2022 data for Spain. Simulations reveal modest increases in total hours worked, mainly via higher labour market participation, with notable gains among low-income women, non-parents, older, and younger workers. Fiscal simulations show a 1.3% increase in tax revenues and a 0.19% reduction in social expenditures, resulting in a budget surplus of 4.63%. The reform also slightly improves income distribution, including a reduction in in-work poverty and a slight narrowing of income inequality. However, the analysis does not account for fixed costs (e.g. childcare and commuting), equilibrium labour demand responses, and broader effects of increased leisure time on consumption and indirect taxation - elements to be addressed in future research. |
| Keywords: | Working time reforms, labour Supply, Discrete Choice Model |
| JEL: | J20 J22 J23 J13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1614 |
| By: | David Card (University of California, Berkeley); Francesco Devicienti (University of Torino and Collegio Carlo Alberto); Mariacristina Rossi (COVIP); Andrea Weber (Central European University) |
| Abstract: | The gender wage gap rises with experience. To what extent do firm policies mediate this rise? We use administrative data from Italy to identify workers’ first jobs and compute wage growth over the next 5 years. We then decompose the contribution of first employers to the rise in the gender wage gap, taking account of maternity events affecting a third of female entrants. We find that idiosyncratic firm effects explain 20% of the variation in early career wage growth, and that the sorting of women to slower-growth firms accounts for a fifth of the gender growth gap. Women who have a child within 5 years of entering work have particularly slow wage growth, reflecting a maternity effect that is magnified by the excess sorting of mothers-to-be to slower-growth firms. Many entrants change jobs within their first 5 years and we find that the male-female difference in early career wage growth arises from gaps for both movers and stayers. The firm components in wage growth for stayers and movers are highly correlated, and contribute similar sorting penalties for women who stay or leave. |
| Keywords: | Gender gaps; Firm effects; Maternity; Matched Employer-Employee Data |
| JEL: | J00 J23 J24 J31 J38 J58 L13 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2510 |
| By: | David Dorn (University of Zurich); Florian Schoner (University of Munich, ifo Institute); Moritz Seebacher (University of Munich, ifo Institute); Lisa Simon (Revelio Labs); Ludger Woessmann (LMU Munich, ifo Institute) |
| Abstract: | We measure human capital using the self-reported skill sets of nearly 9 million U.S. college graduates from professional profiles on LinkedIn. We aggregate skill strings into 48 clusters of general, occupation-specific, and managerial skills. Multidimensional skills can account for several important labor-market patterns. First, the number and composition of skills are systematically related to measures of human-capital investment such as education and work experience. The number of skills increases with experience, and the average age-skill profile closely resembles the well-established concave age-earnings profile. Second, workers who report more skills, especially specific and managerial ones, hold higher-paid jobs. Skill differences account for more earnings variation than detailed measures of education and experience. Third, we document a sizable gender gap in skills. While women and men report nearly equal numbers of skills shortly after college graduation, women’s skill count increases more slowly with age subsequently. A simple quantitative exercise shows that women’s slower skill accumulation can be fully accounted for by reduced work hours associated with motherhood. The resulting gender differences in skills rationalize a substantial proportion of the gender gap in job-based earnings. |
| Keywords: | skills; human capital; gender; education; experience; social media; online professional network; labor market; tasks; earnings; |
| JEL: | I26 J16 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:533 |
| By: | Xiao Ma (Peking University); Alejandro Nakab (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella); Daniela Vidart (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how on-the-job training varies with firm characteristics and how this informs the distribution of training costs between firms and workers. Using data from over 100 countries, we document that smaller firms consistently offer fewer training opportunities to their workers. Drawing on administrative data from China and Mexico, we identify differences in labor share and productivity levels as key factors explaining this pattern. We then build a general equilibrium model with various training costsharing schemes and show that only those in which firms bear a substantial share of training costs after hiring align with the empirical evidence. A quantitative version of the model calibrated to the US reveals significant inefficiencies in training provision, particularly among smaller firms, and suggests that (1) optimal training subsidies are higher for smaller firms, though even a uniform subsidy can raise net output by 7%; and (2) increasing the labor market share of larger firms can signifcantly impact on-the-job human capital formation. |
| Keywords: | On-the-job training; Human capital accumulation; Firm heterogeneity |
| JEL: | E24 J24 M53 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2025-05 |
| By: | Qianqian Yang (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, JAPAN); Nobuaki Hamaguchi (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the institutional background of China's minimum wage system, shaped by four key labor law regulations, with a focus on its defining feature of regional heterogeneity. We compile a unique and comprehensive database on minimum wage standards across all 31 provinces from 1995 to 2022, incorporating both nominal and real wage levels as well as their geographic distribution. The dataset and our analysis provide a valuable foundation for understanding the potential role of minimum wage policy in shaping labor market outcomes and regional economic dynamics in the context of a modernizing and developing economy. |
| Keywords: | Minimum Wage; China; Regional heterogeneity; Minimum wage database |
| JEL: | J30 J38 C81 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2025-10 |
| By: | Alessandro Fedele (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy); Mirco Tonin (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy); Daniel Wiesen (University of Cologne, Germany) |
| Abstract: | The health sector requires skilled, altruistic, and motivated individuals to perform complex tasks for which ex-post incentives may prove ineffective. Understanding the determinants of self-selection into health professions is therefore critical. We investigate this issue relying on data from surveys and incentivized dictator games. We compare applicants to medical and healthcare schools in Italy and Austria with non-applicants from the same regions and age cohorts. Drawing on a wide range of individual characteristics, we employ machine learning techniques for variable selection. Our findings show that higher cognitive ability, greater altruism, and the personality trait of conscientiousness are positively associated with the likelihood of applying to medical or nursing school, while neuroticism is negatively associated. Additionally, individuals with a strong identification with societal goals and those with parents working as doctors are more likely to pursue medical education. These results provide evidence of capable, altruistic, and motivated individuals self-selecting into the health sector, a necessary condition for building a high-quality healthcare workforce. |
| Keywords: | Self-selection, Health professions, Altruism, Cognitive ability, Personality traits, Machine learning (Lasso, high-dimensional metrics). |
| JEL: | I1 J24 J4 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bzn:wpaper:bemps115 |
| By: | González, Ignacio (American University); Sala, Hector (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona); Trivín, Pedro (University of Milan) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of minimum wage increases on household consumption, focusing on Spain’s 2019 minimum wage increase, which raised the floor on wages by an unprecedented 22.3% in a low-inflation environment. Leveraging high-frequency, confidential transaction data from point-of-sale devices and credit card payments at the municipal level, we exploit geographic variation in exposure to the reform to identify its effects. We find that the increase led to a significant rise of 4.5% in household consumption, with the largest gains concentrated in nonessential categories such as electronics, leisure, and spending at restaurants and hotels. We corroborate these findings using household-level data from the Spanish Household Budget Survey. Our findings can be rationalized by a simple model featuring nonhomothetic preferences. |
| Keywords: | nonhomothetic preferences, minimum wage, consumption, transaction data, discretionary spending |
| JEL: | D12 E21 H31 J31 R20 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17923 |
| By: | Lutz Hendricks; Tatyana Koreshkova; Oksana Leukhina |
| Abstract: | As college attainment expanded in the U.S., the fraction of public funds allocated to selective colleges and universities declined. Does this make sense from an efficiency standpoint, given that the majority of college entrants face the highest financial returns at selective colleges? Should the states instead be expanding access to high quality colleges? In this paper, we examine reallocating public funds from low quality to high quality colleges in a spending-neutral way. We find that this policy leads to a decline in aggregate earnings and intergenerational income mobility. Public spending on lower quality schools is well-justified. |
| Keywords: | college quality; human capital; public finance of higher education |
| JEL: | J24 J31 I23 I26 H21 H22 |
| Date: | 2025–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:100019 |
| By: | Nava Ashraf; Oriana Bandiera; Virginia Minni; Luigi Zingales |
| Abstract: | We evaluate a firm’s unusual, worker-centered, solution to the agency problem: enabling employees to reduce the cost of effort rather than pushing them with performance rewards. We randomize the roll-out of the firm’s “Discover Your Purpose” intervention among 2, 976 white-collar employees and evaluate their outcomes over two years. We find that performance increases because the low performers either leave the firm or improve in their current jobs. The trade-off between meaning and pay flattens as those with low meaning and high pay leave the firm. Treatment also reshapes stated priorities and reduces gender gaps in preferences and behaviors, including uptake of parental leave. A cost-benefit analysis reveals high returns that are shared between the firm and the employees through higher bonuses. Finally, we show that observational data obscure these gains, causing firms to underestimate the intervention’s true value. |
| JEL: | C93 J2 J3 M5 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33843 |
| By: | Abdoulaye Ndiaye; Zhixiu Yu |
| Abstract: | Raising the retirement age is a common policy response when social security schemes face fiscal pressures. We develop and estimate a dynamic life cycle model to study optimal retirement and tax policy when individuals face health shocks and income risk and make endogenous retirement decisions. The model incorporates key features of Social Security, Medicare, income taxation, and savings incentives and distinguishes three channels through which health affects retirement: nonconvexities in labor supply due to health-dependent fixed costs of working, earnings reductions, and mortality risk. We estimate our model to match US microdata and show that labor supply nonconvexities play a dominant role in driving early retirement, making rigid increases in the retirement age welfare reducing. In contrast, more flexible policies, such as increasing the dependence of Social Security benefits on the claiming age, can improve welfare and pay for themselves with a fiscal surplus. We map a range of policy reforms to their marginal values of public funds (MVPFs), showing that certain incentives to delay claiming offer MVPFs of infinity while broad-based retirement age increases have negative willingness-to-pay. These findings offer novel retirement policy prescriptions and challenge the prevailing emphasis on raising the retirement age. |
| Keywords: | flexible retirement, optimal taxation, social security reform, life cycle model, health shocks, retirement decisions, marginal value of public funds (MVPF), labor supply nonconvexities, mortality risk, medicare |
| JEL: | H21 H55 J26 D15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11904 |
| By: | Xiao Ma (Peking University); Alejandro Nakab (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella); Camila Navajas-Ahumada (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella); Daniela Vidart (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | Women experience slower wage growth than men over their lifetimes, a gap often attributed to the “motherhood wage penalty, ” as childbearing reduces earnings. This paper links this penalty to differences in human capital using a pseudo-event study of first childbirth in Europe to document a “mother-hood training penalty.” Before parenthood, full-time male and female work-ers exhibit similar on-the-job training trends, but their trajectories diverge afterward. In the first 1–3 years of parenthood, women are 17%–22% less likely to train, compared to a 3%–8% decline for men. Additional evidence suggests this gap reflects employers’ lower willingness to finance training for mothers. |
| Keywords: | On-the-Job Training, Human Capital Accumulation, Lifecycle Wage Growth, Gender Gaps |
| JEL: | J24 J16 M53 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2025-04 |
| By: | Autor, David H (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Dorn, David; Hanson, Gordon H.; Jones, Maggie R.; Setzler, Bradley |
| Abstract: | This chapter analyzes the distinct adjustment paths of U.S. labor markets (places) and U.S. workers (people) to increased Chinese import competition during the 2000s. Using comprehensive register data for 2000–2019, we document that employment levels more than fully rebound in trade-exposed places after 2010, while employment-to-population ratios remain depressed and manufacturing employment further atrophies. The adjustment of places to trade shocks is generational: affected areas recover primarily by adding workers to non-manufacturing who were below working age when the shock occurred. Entrants are disproportionately native-born Hispanics, foreign-born immigrants, women, and the college-educated, who find employment in relatively low-wage service sectors such as medical services, education, retail, and hospitality. Using the panel structure of the employer-employee data, we decompose changes in the employment composition of places into trade-induced shifts in the gross flows of people across sectors, locations, and non-employment status. Contrary to standard models, trade shocks reduce geographic mobility, with both in- and out-migration remaining depressed through 2019. The employment recovery stems almost entirely from young adults and foreign-born immigrants taking their first U.S. jobs in affected areas, with minimal contributions from cross-sector transitions of former manufacturing workers. Although worker inflows into non-manufacturing more than fully offset manufacturing employment losses in trade-exposed locations after 2010, incumbent workers neither fully recover earnings losses nor predominantly exit the labor market, but rather age in place as communities undergo rapid demographic and industrial transitions. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper) |
| Date: | 2025–05–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7rfae_v1 |
| By: | Aydemir, Abdurrahman B. (Sabanci University); Ersan, Yasar (Ankara University) |
| Abstract: | We examine the causal effect of education on financial outcomes related to stock markets and retirement savings, leveraging a major compulsory school reform and a unique data set covering the universe of investors in Türkiye. The estimates show no effects on participation rates, portfolio composition, or return performance. Moreover, education does not appear to influence behavioral biases or heuristics in retirement plans. The reform leads to a 3% increase in pension savings for females, with no significant effect on males. Higher earnings and increased employment with employer-sponsored pension plans appear as potential mechanisms driving the wealth effect. |
| Keywords: | Wealth, Retirement, Education, Investment Decisions |
| JEL: | I21 I26 G11 G41 G50 G53 J32 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17927 |
| By: | Randall Akee; Maggie R. Jones; Emilia Simeonova |
| Abstract: | Tribal lands in the U.S. have historically experienced some of the worst economic conditions in the nation. We review some existing research on the effect of American Indian tribal casinos on various measures of local economic development. This is an industry that began in the early 1990s and currently generates more than $40 billion annually. We also review the state of the literature on the effects of casino operations on communities in or adjacent to tribal areas. Using a new dataset linking individual and enterprise-level data longitudinally, this study examines the industry- and location-specific impacts of tribal casino operations. We focus in particular on the employment of American Indians. We document positive flows from unemployment and non-casino geographies to work in sectors related to casino operations. Tribal casinos differ from other standard place-based economic development projects in that they are focused on a single industry; we discuss these differences and note that some of the positive spillover effects may be similar to other, more standard place-based policies. Finally, we discuss additional and open-ended questions for future research on this topic. |
| JEL: | J20 O2 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33744 |
| By: | Qianqian Yang (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, JAPAN); Nobuaki Hamaguchi (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | This paper offers an integrated perspective that bridges labor economics and spatial economics to shed light on the broader implications of minimum wage policies. Traditional labor economics, grounded in neoclassical and partial equilibrium models, yields ambiguous theoretical predictions regarding the employment effects of minimum wages, making empirical analysis essential. Yet empirical findings from both developed and developing countries remain mixed, shaped by differences in data, methods, and variable definitions. Spatial economics, particularly through general equilibrium frameworks, provides insight into how agglomeration forces, transport costs, increasing returns, and factor mobility influence regional economic outcomes. These models suggest that core regions benefiting from agglomeration rents may be better positioned to sustain generous public policies, including higher minimum wages. We also review evidence on how minimum wages affect migration and firm location decisions, though results remain inconclusive. Through a comprehensive review of the extant literature, this paper underscores the value of incorporating spatial perspectives in understanding minimum wage effects and identifies directions for future research. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wage; Labor economics; Regional labor markets; Agglomeration rent; Spatial economics |
| JEL: | J38 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2025-08 |
| By: | Laura Conti; Marco Francesconi; Giulio Papini; Michel Serafinelli; Gabriella Conti |
| Abstract: | This paper documents how the local labor market (LLM) responds to a change in touristic attractiveness. Leveraging largely underutilized data from several sources, we exploit a unique classification of Italian localities based on their main touristic assets and aggregate trends in foreign tourists' choices in a shift-share research design. Looking at all LLMs, we find a strong positive relationship between changes in attractiveness and changes in the local tourism-related economic activity, with a positive impact on tourism expenditure and tourism employment, but no effect on total employment. In high-unemployment LLMs, however, we find evidence of sizable total employment effects and large indirect effects generated through industries related to tourism and firms in the nontradable sector. We observe no effects on wage growth. We discuss our results in the context of the current policy debate on the role of tourism in the development of the local economy. |
| Keywords: | tourism, job growth, unemployment, local spillovers, heterogeneity |
| JEL: | R11 J21 R12 R23 Z30 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11914 |
| By: | Karol Madoń |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of automation on workers' wages across 20 European countries between 2010–2018. Overall, it identifies a net positive effect of robot adoption on average wages at the sectoral level, especially pronounced among routine manual and nonroutine manual occupations. Importantly, these effects differ between countries- workers in Eastern European countries benefit twice as much from automation as their Western European counterparts. In Western European countries, higher average wages are associated with a decreasing share of routine workers. Results are robust to the exclusion of different capital measures, a battery of fixed effects, a change of instrument and an alternative measure of wages. |
| Keywords: | automation, job tasks, wages, technological change, Europe |
| JEL: | E24 J30 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:wpaper:wp062024 |
| By: | Jaanika Meriküll; Matthias Rottner |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the distributional effects of monetary policy and its dependence on inflation. We document a novel dependency in the earnings heterogeneity channel of monetary policy using high-frequency, administrative tax data from eurozone member Estonia. Monetary policy shocks substantially influence earnings inequality during high-inflation periods, with weaker effects during low-inflation periods. Extending our dataset with granular MPC estimates, we show that earnings heterogeneity amplifies the aggregate MPC and consumption response. In high-inflation periods, consumption and inequality respond more, even though the aggregate MPC may be lower. We rationalise our findings with a nonlinear tractable HANK model featuring inflation dependencies. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, labour income inequality, inflation, state dependency, earnings heterogeneity channel, aggregate MPC |
| JEL: | E52 D31 J31 J63 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1271 |
| By: | Wadho, Waqar; Chaudhry, Azam |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impact of international standards certification on the export performance of firms in a developing economy using a unique panel data from Pakistan's textile and apparel sector. To address endogeneity, we implement a novel instrumental variable strategy that leverages the prevalence of certified non-rival firms within the same district as an exogenous source of variation in certification adoption. We find that certification significantly increases the likelihood of exporting by 44 percentage points, raises export volumes by nearly ten times, and boosts annual export growth by 68 percent. We, then, explore the underlying mechanisms and find that certification facilitates product diversification, enhances knowledge networks, promotes both product and process innovation, and yields significant gains in labor productivity. However, certification does not lead to greater product complexity, suggesting that while it results in horizontal expansion and strengthens external linkages, it is not sufficient for vertical upgrading. |
| Keywords: | ISO, standards certification, export, technological innovation, productivity |
| JEL: | L14 L15 F14 M21 O31 J24 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1611 |
| By: | Hyejin Ku (University College London); Tianrui Mu (University College London) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how China’s growing research capabilities impact global research universities across scientific fields. Using bibliometric data from 1980 to 2020, we assess the effects of the “China shock†on high-impact publications, novel concepts, and citation patterns. Our analysis reveals a positive net effect in Chemistry and Engineering & Materials Science (EMS), but a negative effect in Clinical & Life Sciences (CLS). In other fields, the effects are mostly positive but imprecise. We highlight the coexistence of competition and spillover effects, with their relative strength shaped by field characteristics, such as expansion potential and the quality of China’s research. |
| Keywords: | China shock in science, knowledge production, ideas, competition, spillovers |
| JEL: | J24 I23 O31 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2513 |
| By: | William J. Collins; Nicholas C. Holtkamp |
| Abstract: | We shed new light on historical black-white disparities in wealth and economic mobility by examining datasets of linked census records. First, we compare black and white men’s intra- and inter-generational mobility into property ownership between 1870, the first census taken after the Civil War, and 1900. Conditional on not owning property in 1870, black men’s mobility rate into property ownership was far lower than white men’s. If black men’s post-1870 mobility had mirrored that of landless white men, the black-white home ownership gap in 1900 would have been small. Second, we show that for black men located in cotton-intensive counties in 1870, the likelihood of owning property in 1900 was far lower than for black men located elsewhere. This is apparent in national samples as well as in samples restricted to the states of the former Confederacy, with and without extensive controls. This pattern is connected to the prevalence of sharecropping and relatively high black population shares. For white men, the difference in upward mobility between cotton-intensive and other areas was much smaller or non-existent. Many black households did acquire land and homes of their own in this era, an important channel for economic advance, but racism and discrimination slowed their mobility into property ownership. |
| JEL: | I3 J70 N31 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33860 |
| By: | Kirstin Munro (Department of Economics, New School For Social Research, USA) |
| Abstract: | A body of literature in conventional labor economics contends with multiple endogeneity concerns inexamining the impact of purportedly labor-saving home appliances on married women’s labor force participation. However, this literature largely overlooks insights from feminist research. Using 1991-2010 microdata for Brazil, I question the way earlier studies have interpreted the relationship between household appliance ownership and female labor force participation. My results for Brazil are similar in magnitude to those using 1960-1970 microdata for the United States. However, I obtain this same result when televisions — not straightforwardly a “labor-saving appliance” — are substituted for clothes washing machines in the model. A result with a stronger causal interpretation, relying on variations in the proportion of women employed in household services, suggests a negative relationship between washing machines and women’s labor force participation. I conclude there is not sufficient evidence to claim home appliances cause increases in married women’s labor force participation. |
| Keywords: | Women’s labor force participation, household technology, domestic labor, Brazil |
| JEL: | B54 D13 J22 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:2509 |
| By: | Monica Deza; Johanna Catherine Maclean; Alberto Ortega |
| Abstract: | Child maltreatment is a major public health concern in the United States. Maltreatment is associated with a range of poor health, developmental, and economic outcomes for child victims. In this study, we examine the impact of recent state paid sick leave mandates on child maltreatment reports over the period 2011-2022. Paid sick leave mandates confer financially protected time that can be used for health and family responsibilities as well as for actions such as court hearings that can reduce exposure to domestic violence. These benefits may also reduce maltreatment reports. Using difference-in-differences and event-study methods, we find that child maltreatment reports decline by 11% following the adoption of a state paid sick leave mandate. An analysis of mechanisms suggests that increases in parental and child health, family economic standing, childcare provision, and healthcare are important channels linking paid sick leave mandates to child maltreatment reports. |
| JEL: | J2 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33758 |
| By: | Raahil Madhok; Frederik Noack; Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak; Olivier Deschenes |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how agricultural production responds to the loss of agricultural labor during the process of urbanization and structural transformation. Using household microdata from India and exogenous variation in migration opportunities induced by urban income shocks, we show that agricultural households do not systematically replace lost labor with increased capital. Instead, they cultivate less land and lower their use of agricultural technology, reducing crop production. Resulting changes in land and crop prices induce non-migrant households to expand agricultural investments and production. In aggregate, market adaptation mitigates over three-fourths of the direct agricultural losses from urbanization. Spatial reorganization moves food production from land near urban areas toward more remote areas with lower emigration. |
| JEL: | J43 O13 O15 Q15 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33854 |