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on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages |
| By: | Clemens, Jeffrey (University of California, San Diego); Strain, Michael R. (American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | In a study of recent minimum wage changes (Clemens and Strain, forthcoming), we demonstrate how analyses of longer-run impacts of policy interventions can be pre-specified as extensions to very short-run analyses. This paper uses this novel methodology to study the effects of minimum wage increases on hours worked. Analyzing CPS and ACS data with the empirical specifications from our partially pre-committed analysis plan, we estimate that relatively large minimum wage increases reduced usual hours worked per week among individuals with low levels of experience and education by just under one hour per week during the decade prior to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. Our estimates of the effects of relatively small minimum wage increases vary across data sets and specifications but are, on average, both economically and statistically indistinguishable from zero. We estimate that the elasticity of hours worked with respect to the minimum wage is substantially more negative for large minimum wage increases than for small increases. We estimate that the elasticity of hours worked with respect to the minimum wage is substantially more negative for large minimum wage increases than for small increases. |
| Keywords: | minimum wages, hours worked, pre-commitment |
| JEL: | J08 J23 J38 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17913 |
| By: | Patrinos, Harry Anthony (University of Arkansas, Fayetteville); Rivera-Olvera, Angelica (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the first analysis for Arkansas using 2024 CPS data to examine education's impact on earnings and returns to investment. Average returns are 7.7%, higher for women (9%). University education yields even more: 8.8% overall, 8.1% for men, and 10.8% for women. With full discounting, private returns are 11.5% and social returns 6.6%, suggesting social benefits may be undervalued. The key takeaway is that investing in better and broader access to education offers strong individual and societal returns, making it one of the most effective ways to boost economic outcomes. |
| Keywords: | returns to education, human capital, wage differentials, earnings function, Arkansas |
| JEL: | I26 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17963 |
| By: | de Koning, Bart K. (Cornell University); Fouarge, Didier (ROA, Maastricht University); Dur, Robert (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | We run a field experiment in which we provide information to students about job opportunities and hourly wages of occupations they are interested in. The experiment takes place within a widely-used career orientation program in the Netherlands, and involves 28, 186 pre-vocational secondary education students in 243 schools over two years. The information improves the accuracy of students' beliefs and leads them to change their preferred occupation to one with better labor market prospects. Administrative data that covers up to four years after the experiment shows that students choose (and remain in) post-secondary education programs with better job opportunities and higher hourly wages as a result of the information treatment. |
| Keywords: | field experiment, labor market information, education choice |
| JEL: | C93 D83 I26 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17951 |
| By: | Hart, Robert A. (University of Stirling); Roberts, J. Elizabeth (University of Stirling) |
| Abstract: | Based on payroll data of blue-collar male workers in the UK’s engineering and metal working industries between the mid-1920s and mid-1960s, this paper investigates piecework-timework pay differentials through time. The period covers several pre-Depression years, the Great Depression, the run up to WW2, the war itself, and the post war period. A major widening of the differentials occurred during the late 1920s and during the run-up to and the expansion of WW2 activities. In contrast, the Depression and the post-war years witnessed considerable narrowing of the differentials. Associated labour market topics include pieceworkers’ compensating pay differentials and the transaction costs of pricing piecework output. The surge in women’s employment in engineering and metal working in the early war years is shown to have contributed to changes in the male differentials. |
| Keywords: | piecework, timework pay differentials, output fluctuations, piecework pricing. |
| JEL: | J31 J33 N64 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17959 |
| By: | Van Phan (Bristol Business School, University of West of England); Carl Singleton (Economics Division, University of Stirling, Stirling); Alex Bryson (UCL Social Research Institute, University College London); John Forth (Bayes Business School, City St Georges, University of London); Felix Ritchie (Bristol Business School, University of West of England); Lucy Stokes (Competition and Markets Authority (CMA)); Damian Whittard (Bristol Business School, University of West of England) |
| Abstract: | Most studies of ethnic wage gaps rely on household survey data. As such, they are unable to examine the degree to which wage gaps arise within or between firms. We contribute to the literature using high quality employer-employee payroll data on jobs, hours, and earnings, linked with the personal and family characteristics of workers from the population census for England and Wales. We reveal substantial unexplained wage gaps disadvantaging ethnic minority groups among both women and men. These disparities occur predominantly within firms rather than between them and are especially pronounced among higher earners. The patterns vary significantly by gender and by ethnic minority group compared to white workers. Since most of the wage disadvantage for ethnic minorities is within-firm, our results suggest that the UK’s recent legislative reforms on firm-level gender pay gap reporting should be expanded to encompass ethnicity pay gap |
| Keywords: | Employer-Employee Data, Unconditional Quantile Regression, Decomposition Methods, UK Labour Market |
| JEL: | J31 J7 J71 |
| Date: | 2025–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qss:dqsswp:2502 |
| By: | Ashraf, Nava (London School of Economics); Bandiera, Oriana (London School of Economics); Minni, Virginia (University of Chicago Booth School of Business); Zingales, Luigi (University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate a firm’s unusual, worker-centered, solution to the agency problem: enabling employees to reduce the cost of effort rather than pushing them with performance rewards. We randomize the roll-out of the firm’s “Discover Your Purpose” intervention among 2, 976 white-collar employees and evaluate their outcomes over two years. We find that performance increases because the low performers either leave the firm or improve in their current jobs. The trade-off between meaning and pay flattens as those with low meaning and high pay leave the firm. Treatment also reshapes stated priorities and reduces gender gaps in preferences and behaviors, including uptake of parental leave. A cost-benefit analysis reveals high returns that are shared between the firm and the employees through higher bonuses. Finally, we show that observational data obscure these gains, causing firms to underestimate the intervention’s true value. |
| Keywords: | meaning-making, worker performance, worker motivation, incentives |
| JEL: | J2 J3 M5 C93 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17904 |
| By: | Emily Breza; Supreet Kaur |
| Abstract: | The process of development is accompanied by marked changes in the structure of the labor market. We lay out a broad set of stylized features that distinguish developing country labor markets from those in richer countries. We organize our review around one particularly striking difference: in poor countries, working age individuals are employed in wage work only 20-50% of the time. There is evidence that this low wage employment reflects high levels of involuntary unemployment (often masked by self-employment), along with frictions such as wage rigidity, market power, and search and matching frictions. At the same time, there is growing documentation that workers prefer self-employment or unemployment to many of the wage jobs that are available to them, especially low-skill work in the formal sector. We offer evidence on several ways in which poverty itself can dampen labor supply, so that "low" labor supply may itself be an outcome of under-development. Throughout our review, we highlight how three core aspects of poverty—missing markets, the importance of social ties, and institutional irregularity—are important for understanding why developing country labor markets may behave differently from those in richer settings. This has relevance for understanding how labor markets change in response to, and help facilitate, the process of development. |
| JEL: | E24 J22 J23 J31 J63 J64 O15 O17 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33908 |
| By: | Adachi, Daisuke; Skipper, Lars |
| Abstract: | The offshoring of manufacturing jobs has replaced low-skilled workers who often lack the relevant skills to transition to new occupations. Using Danish adult education and employer-employee data, we study how adult vocational training influences occupational choice and mitigates labor demand shocks. Despite low participation rates in training programs, we show that manufacturing workers trained in business services (BS) programs have a 0.9-3.1 percentage point higher probability of transitioning to BS occupations using dynamic difference-in-difference analysis. We then propose and estimate a life-cycle model of occupation and program choice that yields a nested logit conditional choice probability. The program take-up elasticity is lower than the occupation choice elasticity, suggesting that individuals are insensitive to the monetary value of the programs. A counterfactual wage subsidy policy tied to participation in BS-related programs supports transitions from manufacturing to BS occupations and reduces the share of low-skilled individuals leaving the labor force, especially at older ages, demonstrating the potential for a resilient labor market. |
| Date: | 2025–06–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7dktj_v1 |
| By: | Morando, Greta (University of Sheffield); Sen, Sonkurt (University of Bonn) |
| Abstract: | Socio-emotional skills are recognized as key factors influencing both early and later life outcomes. However, there is limited evidence on how these skills are shaped within the classroom environment. This paper uses nationally representative survey data from England to examine the impact of teacher gender on students' socio-emotional skills. We employ a student fixed effects model. Our findings show that male teachers positively influence male students' prosocial behavior, while negatively affecting female students' peer problems. We provide support for the role model hypothesis and present novel evidence on how parents respond to teacher-student gender match by adjusting their investment strategies for daughters. |
| Keywords: | socio-emotional skills, teachers, gender, child development |
| JEL: | D91 I21 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17953 |
| By: | Shijun Gu; Chengcheng Jia |
| Abstract: | Can the expansion of higher education lead to firm productivity growth? In this paper, we examine how China's college expansion program contributes to the rapid growth of firms' R&D expenditure and productivity. In our model, heterogeneous firms make endogenous R&D decisions, requiring them to allocate skilled workers between production and R&D. We structurally estimate the model using firm-level data on the level and distribution of R&D, as well as macro-level data on skill prices and sectoral allocation. Quantitative analysis reveals that between 2004 and 2018, the combination of the R&D-sector-biased technology shock, the skill-biased technology shock, and the skilled-labor supply shock leads to a 12 percent increase in total factor productivity (TFP), of which one-fifth is explained by the rising supply of skilled labor. Counterfactual analysis shows that a further increase in the share of skilled labor has the potential to increase TFP by an additional 2 percent, but the marginal effect diminishes due to the rising wages of unskilled labor. |
| Keywords: | R&D; TFP; skilled labor; college expansion; Chinese economy |
| JEL: | J24 O31 O32 |
| Date: | 2025–06–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:101133 |
| By: | Niklas Garnadt; Lena Füner; Konrad Stahl; Joacim Tag |
| Abstract: | Identifying high growth startups ex-ante and fostering their success is an important policy challenge. Using Swedish registry data, we show that previous labor market earnings of entrepreneurs is a simple observable that is strongly correlated with entrepreneurship success. Entrepreneurs from the top decile of income from dependent employment are four times more likely to succeed than those from the lowest decile. Their firms are larger and more productive from the outset, and this effect intensifies over time. This correlation is virtually unaffected by variations in the entrepreneurs’ personal traits. It does also not vary across the business cycle. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, high-growth startups, labor income, unemployment |
| JEL: | L26 L53 J24 E32 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_693 |
| By: | Sarah Bernhard; Sandra Bohmann; Susann Fiedler; Maximilian Kasy; Jürgen Schupp; Frederik Schwerter |
| Abstract: | How does basic income (a regular, unconditional, guaranteed cash transfer) impact labor supply? We show that in search models of the labor market with income effects, this impact is theoretically ambiguous: Employment and job durations might increase or decrease, match surplus might be shifted to workers or employers, and worker surplus might be reallocated between wages and job amenities. We thus turn to empirical evidence to study this impact. We conducted a pre-registered RCT in Germany, starting 2021, where recipients received 1200 Euro/month for three years. We draw on both administrative and survey data, and find no extensive margin (employment) response, and no impact on on job transitions from either non-employment or employment. We do find a small statistically insignificant intensive margin shift to parttime employment, which implies an excess burden (reduction of government revenues) of ca 7.5% of the transfer. We furthermore observe a small increase of enrollment in training or education. |
| Keywords: | Basic income, randomized controlled trial, labor supply |
| JEL: | I38 J22 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2123 |
| By: | Achard, Pascal (INSAE, CREST); Belot, Michèle (Cornell University); Chevalier, Arnaud (Royal Holloway, University of London) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the causal effect of parental right to work from home (WfH) on children’s educational attainment. Using administrative data from the Netherlands and variations in firm-specific WfH policies, which generate natural experiments, we find that children whose parents gain the right to WfH improve their scores on a high-stakes exam by 9% of a standard deviation. This results in a 4 percentage points upswing in qualifying for a general or academic track in secondary school. Additionally, using the labor force survey, we find that changes in WfH policies are associated with a 17 percentage points increase in WfH propensity, but no change in hours worked or income. These results highlight the large potential benefits of remote work in supporting families and their children. |
| Keywords: | teleworking, remote work, work-life balance, test scores, working from home, work flexibility |
| JEL: | I20 J13 J22 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17957 |
| By: | Guglielmo Barone; Annalisa Loviglio; Denni Tommasi |
| Abstract: | Digital skills are increasingly essential for full participation in modern life. Yet many low-income families face a dual digital divide: limited access to technology and limited ability to use it effectively. These gaps can undermine adults' ability to support their children's education, restrict access to public services, and reduce their own employability. Despite growing policy attention, rigorous evidence on how to close these gaps - especially among disadvantaged adults in high-income countries - remains scarce. We evaluate the impact of a comprehensive digital inclusion program in Turin, Italy, targeting 859 low-income families with school-aged children. Participants were randomly assigned to a control group or one of two treatment arms, each combining a free tablet with internet access and digital literacy training of different durations. One year later, treated participants reported large improvements in digital skills and daily technology use. Parents also became more confident in guiding their children's online activities, more engaged in digital parenting, and more likely to access public services digitally. We find no short-run effects on employment or job search behavior, but treated participants expressed greater optimism about future training prospects. Effects are statistically similar across the two training intensities, suggesting that once basic barriers are removed, digital engagement can become self-sustaining. Mediation analysis confirms that digital skills - not just access - are key drivers of these outcomes. Sequential effects are particularly strong in the domains of social inclusion and parenting. The findings underscore the importance of addressing both financial and learning constraints and suggest that bundled interventions can foster inclusive digital participation. |
| JEL: | I24 J24 O33 C93 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1205 |
| By: | J. Ignacio Giménez-Nadal (University of Zaragoza); José Alberto Molina (Departamento de Análisis Económico, Universidad de Zaragoza); Jing Jian Xiao (University of Rhode Island, Kingston) |
| Abstract: | This study examines how individuals in the US allocate time to financial activities and how these activities relate to their well-being. Using data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS), we find that financial tasks occupy a minimal share of daily time—averaging just 8.3 minutes— yet are associated with elevated stress and low happiness. Despite their negative emotional valence, financial activities are perceived as meaningful. Regression analyses reveal that time spent on financial tasks increases with education and income, and varies by gender, employment status, and race. Fur- thermore, affective experiences during financial activities differ significantly across sociodemographic lines: men and older individuals report more negative emotions, while higher education is linked to improved emotional outcomes. These findings allows us to test several hypothesis proposed in previous finantial research, and highlight the cognitive and emotional demands of everyday financial management. |
| Keywords: | Financial behavior, financial literacy, time use data, instant feelings. |
| JEL: | D14 |
| Date: | 2025–06–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:1089 |
| By: | Irma Mooi-Reci (School of Social and Political Sciences, The University of Melbourne); Mark Wooden (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne) |
| Abstract: | In the wake of the rapid growth in working from home (WFH) there has been renewed interest in the impacts of this form of employment. One area of contention is job mobility and career progression. WFH is often argued to improve job satisfaction and thus enhance employee retention. In contrast, the lesser visibility of remote workers and the possible stigma associated with WFH might make them less likely to be promoted and more likely to be dismissed. This study tests these conflicting hypotheses using longitudinal data involving up to almost 150, 000 observations on employees collected over a 21-year period from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey. Fixed-effects regression models of five different outcomes are estimated. Strong results are mostly confined to those that work exclusively from home, more marked for subjective outcomes than objective outcomes and, in the case of objective outcomes, restricted to men. Among male employees, WFH all the time is associated with fewer quits but more dismissals. No such associations are found for females. Hybrid arrangements are also associated with a lower likelihood of promotion for men. These findings suggest that WFH may come at a career price, but only for men. |
| Keywords: | emotions, working from home, telecommuting, labour turnover, job quits, promotions, dismissals, Australia, HILDA Survey |
| JEL: | M51 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2025n01 |
| By: | Longden, Thomas (University of Western Sydney); Naghsh Nejad, Maryam (University of Technology, Sydney) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how individuals respond financially to severe health shocks by analyzing early withdrawals from retirement savings following the initiation of cancer treatment (chemotherapy). Using comprehensive administrative data from Australia that link health, tax, and demographic records, we study behavior in a setting with universal health coverage and a mandatory retirement savings scheme that permits early access under hardship provisions. We find that early withdrawals increase significantly in the year of and the year after treatment, particularly among individuals who lose income or receive a terminal diagnosis. To interpret these patterns, we extend a dynamic Grossman-style model of health capital to account for survival probabilities and institutional features of the retirement system. Our findings show that health shocks prompt individuals to draw down retirement savings as a form of self-insurance, revealing how health risks interact with retirement policy. These results inform ongoing debates about the flexibility and adequacy of retirement savings systems. |
| Keywords: | early retirement withdrawals, health shocks, income loss, administrative data, life-cycle savings |
| JEL: | H55 I10 D14 D15 J32 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17964 |
| By: | Ihsaan Bassier; Alan Manning |
| Abstract: | This paper combines two empirical traditions in the study of employer monopsony power. One tradition estimates static firm labour supply elasticities, while the other focuses on labour market flows, estimating separations and hires elasticities. We nest these two approaches in a simple dynamic model for firm-level labour supply in which the short- and long-run labour supply elasticities are different. Using matched employer-employee data from the UK, we estimate a short-run labour supply elasticity of 1-2 and a longrun elasticity of 5-6. Estimating a static labour supply curve estimates a weighted combination of the short- and long-run elasticities. Separations and hiring elasticities estimated on the same data are consistent with the long-run elasticity but are not informative about the short-run. |
| Keywords: | Monopsony, Dynamic Labour Supply, labour, labor |
| Date: | 2025–06–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2108 |
| By: | Isabella Agnes; Jessica Liu; Erin Troland; Douglas A. Webber |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an overview of how various labor market indicators differ across geography. While many indicators are often discussed in terms of national aggregates, such discussions obscure the large degree of variation that exists across localities. We primarily use counties as a geographic unit, and document both structural differences that persist over time as well as differences in the past two business cycles. The racial composition of communities plays a large role in explaining geographic differences in labor market indicators, in some cases even more so than income. We specifically focus on the importance of labor market tightness in the general economic development of counties and in the recovery from the pandemic recession. We find substantial heterogeneity in the degree of labor market tightness across counties, as measured by the vacancy rate using job postings from Lightcast, and moreover find a close connection between this rate and county income growth. Finally, we show how the distribution of labor market tightness evolved over the course of the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | Geographic Inequality; Job Postings; Job Vacancies; Unemployment Rates |
| JEL: | J20 J60 R00 |
| Date: | 2025–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2025-40 |
| By: | Riccarda Rosenball (University of Graz, Austria) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the gender pay gap in West Germany's manufacturing sector using linked employer-employee data. The gender pay gap has nearly halved for exporting firms since 1993 - a decline that is much smaller for non-exporting firms. Long-term exporters employ a large share of the workforce and drive trends across the entire sector. Some of the largest exporting industries, such as vehicle manufacturing, show the lowest gender pay gaps. I show that the decline in the gender pay gap of exporters is driven by the increasing representation of women in high-paying positions. Tracking the gender pay gap over the first 10 to 15 years of employees' careers reveals that this decline is largely due to a growing share of highly educated women in the workforce, along with stronger opportunities for career advancement for women. Providing women with early career advancement opportunities is key to breaking the glass ceiling and reducing persistent gender pay disparities. |
| Keywords: | Gender Pay Gap, Exporting Firms, Linked Employer-Employee Data |
| JEL: | F16 J16 J70 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grz:wpaper:2025-08 |
| By: | Majbouri, Mahdi (Babson College) |
| Abstract: | Women’s educational attainment has continuously increased across the Middle East, while fertility rates have declined substantially. Yet their labor force participation remains stubbornly low. To investigate this puzzle, I use a discrete choice experiment in Egypt that varies the gender composition of the work environment—a key but underexplored dimension. I find that men, who have final say over women’s work decisions, demand 77% higher wages for their wives if the job is in a mixed-gender setting. Since few workplaces are all-female and men can veto women’s employment, these findings help explain the persistently low female participation rate. |
| Keywords: | Middle East and North Africa, preferences toward job attributes, labor supply |
| JEL: | J21 J29 J49 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17952 |
| By: | Aksoy, Cevat Giray (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development); Bloom, Nicholas (Stanford University); Davis, Steven J. (Hoover Institution); Marino, Victoria (EBRD, London); Özgüzel, Cem (Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We study the shift to fully remote work at a large call center in Turkey, highlighting three findings. First, fully remote work increased the share of women, including married women, rural and smaller-town residents. By accessing groups with traditionally lower labor-force participation the firm was able to increase its share of graduate employees by 14% without raising wages. Second, workforce productivity rose by 10%, reflecting shorter call durations for remote employees. This was facilitated by a quieter home working environment, avoiding the background noise in the office. Third, fully remote employees with initial in-person training saw the higher long-run remote productivity and lower attrition rates. This underscores the advantages of initial in-person onboarding for fully remote employees. |
| Keywords: | work from home, remote jobs, workforce mix, productivity |
| JEL: | J2 J3 R1 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17917 |
| By: | Carrasco, Raquel; Gálvez Iniesta, Ismael; Jerez, Belén |
| Abstract: | user firms has received limited theoretical attention. This paper seeks to address this gap byfocusing on temporary agency work. We develop a two-period search model in which firmscan hire workers directly or through a temporary work agency (TWA). The agency acts asa matchmaker, providing flexibility by spreading termination risks across firms and certifyingassignment quality through worker screening. However, it faces a trade-off between creatingproductive matches and retaining control over workers for future placements. In equilibrium, thisresults in inefficient assignments, prolonged TWA employment spells, and lower transition ratesto stable jobs, ultimately reducing overall productivity. Distortions are amplified when wages indirect-hire jobs are set through Nash bargaining rather than directed search. Although transferpayments from firms poaching TWA workers could, in principle, mitigate these distortions, suchtransfers are often restricted by labor regulations. The model predicts that TWA employmentis particularly relevant for low-skilled workers, a finding supported by empirical evidence fromcountries like Spain. Furthermore, it predicts that these low-skilled workers are more likely tobecome trapped in inefficient job assignments. Drawing on Spanish administrative data, wedocument both poaching and misallocation among workers employed through TWAs. Buildingon these findings, we simulate a calibrated model that replicates key features of the data |
| Keywords: | Temporary Agency Work; Intermediation; Search and matching; Screening; Efficiency |
| JEL: | J20 J42 D58 D61 |
| Date: | 2025–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:47470 |
| By: | Nicolás Salamanca (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne); Tanya Gupta (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne); Irma Mooi-Reci (School of Social and Political Sciences, The University of Melbourne); Mark Wooden (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne) |
| Abstract: | We use quasi-experimental variation in suspension of in-person teaching at schools to estimate the causal impact of school disruptions on parents’ labor supply. School disruptions have a large negative effect on labor force participation, especially for women and for people with weaker labor force attachment. Conditional on remaining employed, school disruptions have no impact hours worked or on wages. Exploring potential mechanisms, we find that school disruptions sharply increase working from home, which can help explain our null effects, and point to even more negative effects on labor force participation in the absence of this margin of adjustment. Classification-J22, I28, I18 |
| Keywords: | School disruptions; labor force participation; hours worked; wages; intertemporal treatment effect estimates; COVID-19 pandemic. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2025n03 |
| By: | Noelia Bernal; Sebastian Galiani; Oswaldo Molina |
| Abstract: | We conducted a large field experiment in Peru on informal workers and studied whether offering them a matching contribution raise participation and contributions in their Individual Retirement Accounts. We had three groups: a control group receiving no match, and two treatments groups receiving 50 and 100 percent match, respectively. Additionally, due to the time span, we can also analyze the difference responses between pre and during Covid-19. The results were as follows. First, the match incentive increases participation. Workers in the 50 and 100 percent match groups show participation rates of 5.2 and 6.5 p.p. higher than workers in the control group, respectively. The participation effect is also present pre Covid-19 and disappears during it. Second, the 100 percent match incentive was the only effective in increasing savings among all individuals (1.4 p.p.), pre (2.3 p.p.) and during Covid-19 (0.97 p.p.). This effect still presents in LATE specification with higher p.p. Third, 100% match was again the only effective to make contribute more than once, in the full sample (1.2 p.p.), and pre Covid-19 (2.7 p.p.), including LATE specification (full sample – 5.6 p.p.; pre Covid-19 – 8.2p.p.). Fourth the 50 percent match is not effective in raising contribution in any specification. |
| JEL: | J49 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33925 |
| By: | Gorkem Bostanci; Omer Koru; Sergio Villalvazo |
| Abstract: | We argue that inflationary shocks affect allocative efficiency by changing the rate and the characteristics of workers’ job-to-job transitions. First, using monetary policy shocks and survey data on search effort, we empirically show that a one percentage point rise in inflation increases job-to-job transitions by up to 4.5%, and workers with higher inflation expectations are more likely to search and do so more effectively. Second, we build a general equilibrium model of directed on-the-job search to quantify the aggregate implications of labor market reactions. Higher-than-expected inflation reduces real wages, prompting workers to search more actively and aim lower. This increases job-to-job transitions but lowers the efficiency gains per transition. Therefore, the effect on output is ambiguous. Last, we calibrate the model to the U.S. economy. Inflationary shocks increase reallocation rates, yet allocative efficiency and output decline. Small deflationary shocks (e.g., 2%) increase output in the short run, while others decrease it. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; Job-to-job flows; Worker reallocation |
| JEL: | E24 E31 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2025-42 |
| By: | Bhalotra, Sonia (University of Warwick, IFS, CAGE, CEPR, IEA, IZA, CESifo); Clarke, Damian (University of Exeter, Universidad de Chile, IZA & MIPP); Nazarova, Angelina (Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex, MiSoC, EEA, SIdE) |
| Abstract: | Looking at the earnings profiles of men and women after their first child is born, a number of studies establish that women suffer a larger penalty in earnings than men—a child penalty. Leveraging randomness in the sex of the first birth, we show that the child penalty in the UK is larger when the first born child is a girl. We label this the daughter penalty. Exploiting rich longitudinal survey data, we examine behavioural responses to the birth of a daughter vs. a son to illuminate the underpinnings of the daughter penalty. We find that the birth of a daughter triggers more household specialisation than the birth of a son, with mothers taking on a larger share of household chores and childcare. Mothers suffer a daughter penalty in mental health, while fathers report more satisfaction with their relationship. Our findings imply that girls and boys in the UK are, on average, growing up in different home environments, with girls growing up in households that, by multiple markers, are more gender-regressive. This is potentially a mechanism for the inter-generational transmission of gendered norms. |
| Keywords: | gender, child penalty, gender wage gap, mental health, parental involvement JEL Classification: J2, J7, I3 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:756 |