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on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages |
| By: | Arias, Omar (World Bank); Cesar, Andres (CEDLAS-UNLP); Fukuzawa, Daisuke (World Bank); Le, Duong (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | We examine the labor market effects of industrial robot adoption in Viet Nam. Using differences between districts in their initial industrial structure and exposure to global robotization trends, we find that robot adoption between 2014 and 2020 increased employment, wages, and the inflow of skilled workers. More exposed districts also experienced faster growth in value added, labor productivity, and trade flows. Employment and wage gains were concentrated among middle and high-skilled workers, while low-skilled workers were driven into informal employment or out-migration. We also find positive spillovers to neighboring districts, consistent with production linkages and higher demand for non-tradable goods. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Robots, Local Labor Markets, Wages, Informality, Migration, Export-led Growth, Viet Nam |
| JEL: | J23 J24 J31 O12 O14 O17 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18845 |
| By: | Card, David (University of California, Berkeley); Cardoso, Ana Rute (IAE Barcelona (CSIC)); Silva, Pedro (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | During the 2010 financial crisis, the Portuguese government enacted a series of reforms in its prescription drug reimbursement system. Over the next three years, value added per pharmacist in retail pharmacies fell by a third, reflecting a rise in generic substitution and reductions in the markups allowed for prescription drugs. This massive shock led to pay cuts for incumbent pharmacists and the introduction of a two-tier pay system for new hires, with little or no reduction in the growth of employment. We use detailed longitudinal records from the Quadros de Pessoal database, merged with collective bargaining settlements and firms' financial records, to study the impacts of the reforms. We estimate that between 2009 and 2022 average wages of pharmacists fell by a third, largely due to lower wages for entering cohorts. The implied responsiveness of wages to productivity is substantially above most estimates in the rent-sharing literature, arguably reflecting the strong attachment of workers to the sector and the steady inflow of newly graduating pharmacists. We then consider how wages of pharmacists have diverged relative to other health care professionals, and the decisions of recent college applicants to enter the profession. |
| Keywords: | pharmacist, collective bargaining, wages, education, retail pharmacy, Portugal |
| JEL: | J52 J31 J24 J33 I26 J44 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18842 |
| By: | Tramontano, Jacopo; Cirillo, Valeria; Guarascio, Dario |
| Abstract: | Over the past decade, e-commerce platforms have emerged as key drivers of economic transformation, reshaping local labour markets. This study examines the impact of Amazon's expansion in Italy through the establishment of Fulfillment Centers (FCs) and Delivery Stations (DSs) on municipal-level wages, employment and income distribution. Using administrative tax data for 2013-2023 and a staggered difference-in-differences design, we find that Amazon's entry reduces per capita wages, particularly following the opening of DSs in urban municipalities. FCs also increase the number of low-income earners while reducing high-income earners, contributing to income polarisation. |
| Keywords: | Amazon, e-commerce, digital platforms, staggered differencein- difference, wages, employment, Italy |
| JEL: | J30 L81 J23 O33 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1798 |
| By: | Makany, Milan (Erasmus University Rotterdam & Tinbergen Institute); Zinovyeva, Natalia (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | Science disproportionately relies on top researchers to evaluate the work of others, potentially diverting their scarce time from research, mentoring, and other service. We study this trade-off in Italy's national academic qualification system, where evaluators are randomly assigned to committees. Committees with better-published evaluators select candidates with stronger subsequent citation and career outcomes; they also place greater weight on publication impact rather than quantity. These effects partly reflect spillovers within committees: evaluators assigned to serve alongside more accomplished colleagues exert more effort and adjust their criteria. Assignment to a committee, however, reduces evaluators' subsequent publication output and PhD supervision, especially among top researchers. Research losses are especially large in the Social Sciences and Humanities, and among those working in small teams. More productive researchers are also disproportionately less likely to volunteer for service again. |
| Keywords: | expert evaluation, committees, academic promotions, decision quality, peer effects, opportunity costs |
| JEL: | I23 D71 D83 M51 J45 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18815 |
| By: | Cowgill, Bo (University of Toronto); Freiberg, Brandon (INSEAD); Starr, Evan (University of Maryland) |
| Abstract: | We study worker noncompete clauses in a large field experiment with two finance firms. Across ~14, 000 job offers to freelance recruiters on short-term contracts, we randomize wages and the presence, salience, and duration of noncompetes (all contracts also included a nondisclosure agreement). Removing a noncompete increases mobility between competing employers by 36--52% and raises workers' total earnings from the two firms by 12--17%. We find no evidence---rejecting even small effects---that removing noncompetes generates secret leakage. We also find no evidence that workers choose noncompete jobs for higher pay. Many workers appear unaware of noncompetes before firms' post-employment communication. The results align with a model of inattention and uncertainty about enforcement. |
| Keywords: | noncompete clauses, earnings, knowledge diffusion, mobility, contracting, inattention, enforcement risk |
| JEL: | J42 M5 J31 J41 K31 L41 C93 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18820 |
| By: | Hashimoto, Yuki (Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry); Kambayashi, Ryo (Musashi University); Manjome, Masao (School of Humanities and Culture, Tokai University); Moriguchi, Chiaki (Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University); Nakagawa, Mariko (Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University); Saeki, Yasutaka (Shizuoka University of Art and Culture) |
| Abstract: | Using newly available linked employer-employee data, we investigate foreign-native wage differentials in Japan. Our contribution is twofold: first, we benchmark Japan against Western countries by following Hermansen et al. (2025)’s method; second, we exploit Japan’s tightly structured visa regime to analyze how immigration policy shapes the economic integration of foreign workers. We find that the raw foreign-native wage gap of 28% shrinks to 16% after controlling for employee attributes, and disappears entirely when accounting for workplace characteristics. Compared to the West, across-firm sorting and within-firm task segregation-rather than occupational segregation-plays a greater role in Japan. Moreover, while patterns of wage convergence vary starkly by visa category, foreign wage disadvantage becomes negligible in all visa categories once all factors are controlled. Our results reveal highly segmented labor market in Japan where employee and workplace attributes differ sharply not only between native and foreign workers, but also among foreign workers across visa categories. We argue that Japan’s demand-driven visa regime facilitates near complete wage convergence albeit at the cost of substantial labor market segmentation. |
| Keywords: | wage inequality, immigration policy, economic integration |
| JEL: | J15 J31 J71 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18762 |
| By: | Afridi, Farzana (Indian Statistical Institute); Chandna, Arjita (National Council of Applied Economic Research); Smruti, Aliva (National Council of Applied Economic Research); Talukder, Jayanta (National Council of Applied Economic Research); Thakur, Jyoti (National Council of Applied Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | India faces a persistent challenge in generating formal sector, productive jobs for its growing workforce. The four new Labour Codes enacted in November 2025, seek to address the structural imbalance in its workforce by simplifying 29 pre-existing laws into a coherent framework to support job creation, formalisation and improve social protection of workers. In this paper, we unpack and examine each of the four Labour Codes within a unified framework, that includes discussion of the key legal provisions, the chronology of state-level implementation of the code and detailed exposition of potential impacts on employment and worker productivity. The main analytical inferences for each Code are derived from the existing theoretical and empirical research on labour reforms, with a specific focus on the experience of states within India. Based on the extensive review, the paper concludes by making specific policy recommendations on the effective implementation of the new labour codes. |
| Keywords: | labor reforms, minimum wage, social security, industrial relations, occupational safety, employment, labour productivity, India |
| JEL: | J31 J32 J41 J52 K31 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18824 |
| By: | Ziegler, Lennart (Central European University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines how the supply of job applicants shapes hiring outcomes of firms. Using Austrian matched vacancy-worker data, my analysis exploits variation in the number of job applications, inferred from referrals made by the public employment service. To address endogeneity concerns, I instrument the number of applications with the inflow of jobseekers from mass layoffs. A larger supply of applicants shortens vacancy filling duration and raises the job tenure of hires, consistent with improved worker-firm match quality. At the same time, more applications lower starting wages, which indicates that the employer-bargaining channel dominates the match-quality channel. A larger applicant pool also reinforces worker segregation: firms with high shares of male (native) workers hire even fewer female (foreign) workers when applications are abundant. This reflects employer selection rather than a shift in the composition of the applicant pool, which responds little to the supply shock. |
| Keywords: | labor market tightness, vacancies, recruitment, worker-firm match quality, wage setting, worker segregation |
| JEL: | J23 J62 J63 J71 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18778 |
| By: | Carioli, Paolo (KU Leuven, Dept. of Management, Strategy and Innovation); Czarnitzki, Dirk (KU Leuven, Dept. of Management, Strategy and Innovation; Center for R&D Monitoring (ECOOM) at KU Leuven, and Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim); Fernández, Gastón P. (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)) |
| Abstract: | Artificial Intelligence (AI) is considered to be the next general-purpose technology, with the potential of performing tasks commonly requiring human capabilities. While it is commonly feared that AI replaces labor and disrupts jobs, we instead investigate the potential of AI for overcoming increasingly alarming skills shortages in firms. We exploit unique German survey data from the Mannheim Innovation Panel on both the adoption of AI and the extent to which firms experience scarcity of skills. We measure skills shortage by the number of job vacancies that could not be filled as planned by firms, distinguishing among different types of skills. To account for the potential endogeneity of skills shortage, we also implement instrumental variable estimators. Overall, we find a positive and significant effect of skills shortage on AI adoption, the breadth of AI methods, and the breadth of areas of application of AI. In addition, we find evidence that shortage on academic qualifications and STEM skills relates to firms adopting AI. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence, skills shortage, CIS data |
| JEL: | J23 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18793 |
| By: | Guo, Naijia (The University of Hong Kong); Zhong, Ling (Southwest University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu) |
| Abstract: | Federal student loan interest rates affect college financing, education and job choices, and career outcomes. Using U.S. microdata, we exploit changes in federal loan rates over time and regional variation in expected loan reliance. Higher interest rates reduce student loan take-up and the amount borrowed without raising total interest payments, and students shift toward funding sources that do not require repayment. Students facing higher borrowing costs sort into higher-earning majors and occupations, increase labor supply, and move away from self-employment and small-firm jobs. Affected individuals earn more but report lower satisfaction with job independence and responsibility. |
| Keywords: | federal student loans, interest rates, education outcomes, labor market outcomes, college financing costs |
| JEL: | I23 J24 H81 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18768 |
| By: | Simon Quach |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the labor market effects of overtime coverage in the United States, where salaried workers are covered for overtime if their base pay falls below a legislated salary threshold. Using an event-study design with administrative payroll data and state-level threshold changes from 2014-2021, I find evidence against conventional models of overtime. Contrary to the historical intent of policymakers, firms do not increase employment by substituting more workers for fewer hours. However, contrary to compensating differential models, firms also do not offset the costs of overtime by lowering workers' base pays. Instead, employers raised salaries above the threshold to keep workers exempt from overtime, indicating that monitoring and adjusting workers' hours is costly for firms. Taken together, these results suggest that expanding overtime coverage increases workers' earnings without negatively impacting employment. |
| Keywords: | overtime, Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA), salary threshold |
| JEL: | J08 J23 J38 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12904 |
| By: | Bindler, Anna (University of Potsdam and DIW); Boelmann, Barbara (University of Cologne); Janys, Lena (University of Konstanz); Santiago-Wolf, Luisa (University of Cologne) |
| Abstract: | How do labor demand shocks affect workforce diversity in the absence of targeted diversity policies? A conceptual framework illustrates the potential trade-off between the demographic and quality composition of a workforce when there is a positive labor demand shock. Exploiting the German reunification as a natural experiment, we analyze the academic labor market where nearly all social sciences professors in East Germany were replaced while STEM faculty remained largely unchanged. Using administrative data and a regional difference-in-differences design, we find increased dispersion in the institutional quality of hires, indicating that the new hires came from less select departments. At the same time, female representation did not increase despite qualified women in the pipeline. Instead, East German hiring patterns converged to those in West Germany in terms of gender composition. In simulations, we investigate implied losses: Under conservative assumptions, we show that, considering the pipeline of qualified applicants, the marginal female hire’s quality is approximately half a standard deviation higher than the marginal male hire’s quality. |
| Keywords: | labor demand, diversity, higher education, universities |
| JEL: | I23 J23 J45 J70 J82 N34 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18756 |
| By: | Erik Brynjolfsson; J. Frank Li; Javier Miranda; Robert Seamans; Andrew Wang |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how minimum wage policy affects firms’ adoption of automation technologies. Using both state-level measures of robot exposure and novel plant-level data on industrial robot imports linked to U.S. Census microdata from 1992–2021, we show that increases in minimum wages raise the likelihood of robot adoption in manufacturing. Our preferred identification exploits discontinuities at state borders, comparing otherwise similar firms exposed to different wage floors. Across specifications, a 10 percent increase in the minimum wage increases robot adoption by roughly 8 percent relative to the mean. |
| Keywords: | automation, minimum wage, manufacturing, robots |
| JEL: | J38 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-42 |
| By: | Pichler, Stefan (University of Groningen); Prinz, Christopher (OECD); Thewissen, Stefan (Nyenrode Business University); Ziebarth, Nicolas (Center for European Economic Research (ZEW Mannheim) & University of Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the economics of paid sick leave from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Research on paid sick leave has evolved dynamically over the last decade, primarily driven by the spread of U.S. sick pay mandates, which have increased paid sick leave access from 63 percent to 77 percent in all U.S. jobs. We begin by discussing the economic rationales for government regulation of paid sick leave, particularly the negative externalities associated with contagious diseases when individuals work while sick. After that, we discuss the key trade-offs in the general design of paid sick leave schemes, along with the trade-offs when setting specific policy parameters. Finally, we review economic modeling approaches to study optimal paid sick leave policies. |
| Keywords: | paid sick leave, statutory sickness insurance, medical leave, work disability, work incapacity, long-term absenteeism, presenteeism, paid time off, social insurance, externalities |
| JEL: | I12 I18 J22 J28 J32 J38 J88 H75 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18853 |
| By: | Gill, David (Purdue University); Qiao, Zhongheng (Purdue University) |
| Abstract: | Workers and organizations routinely choose the complexity of tasks that they undertake. We study how cognitive ability and overconfidence shape this choice of task complexity, both theoretically and experimentally. Consistent with our model, we find that more cognitively able individuals choose more complex tasks. Conditional on cognitive ability, we find that more overconfident individuals also choose more complex tasks. About 80% of subjects pick their payoff-maximizing task, and higher cognitive ability predicts more efficient choices of task complexity. But errors are strikingly one-sided: nearly all who fail to choose optimally pick tasks that are too complex. Our findings suggest that organizations should pair task menus and incentives for choosing more complex tasks with information and feedback that help workers assess their ability and probability of success. This preserves the benefits of self-selection while reducing costly overreach. |
| Keywords: | cognitive ability, complexity, task choice, choice efficiency, overconfidence, experiment |
| JEL: | C91 D03 D83 D91 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18834 |
| By: | Cerina, Fabio (University of Cagliari and CRENoS); Dienesch, Elisa (University of Cagliari, CRENoS, and AMSE); Monge-Naranjo, Alex (Atlanta FED, Emory University and CEPR); Moro, Alessio (University of Cagliari, CEPR and IZA) |
| Abstract: | Using a French administrative panel following workers over 1984-2021, we quantify how worker flows account for employment polarization. We trace job-to-job flows across manual, routine, and abstract occupations, and flows between employment and non-employment. Polarization emerges after 1994 mostly through a shift in the latter: a collapse in entry into routine jobs, concentrated in routine-cognitive occupations. Job-to-job upgrading from routine to abstract remains large and stable, with non-college workers accounting for 76% of net flows. Manual employment grows mainly by absorbing entrants. Polarization reflects sorting at entry and re-entry rather than incumbent displacement, motivating life-cycle models incorporating both margins. |
| Keywords: | labor market polarization, worker flows, occupational mobility, routine-biased technological change, longitudinal data |
| JEL: | J62 J24 J21 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18826 |
| By: | Caliendo, Marco (University of Potsdam); Huber, Katrin (University of Potsdam); Isphording, Ingo (Max Planck Institute for Behavioral Economics); Wegmann, Jakob (Rockwool Foundation Berlin) |
| Abstract: | We study the extent, correlates, and consequences of reporting bias in survey wages using German linked survey-administrative data (SOEP-CMI-ADIAB). Survey wages differ systematically from administrative records: mean survey wages are 7% lower, with mean-reverting discrepancies that firm context explains far better than individual characteristics. Since neither source alone is sufficient, we construct a hybrid wage combining their strengths. Measurement choice matters mainly through the treatment of administrative top-coding: when wages are outcomes, censoring at the assessment limit understates returns to education by 4-11% and the gender wage gap by up to 23%, while imputation reverses the bias for returns. When wages are regressors, wage-satisfaction gradients are 9-28% steeper with survey than administrative wages below the assessment limit, indicating non-classical, context-dependent misreporting. We provide guidance for choosing between administrative, survey, and hybrid wages, with lessons for any setting where self-reported wages are collected alongside top-coded administrative records. |
| Keywords: | reporting bias, measurement error, wage, income, administrative data, survey data, data linkage |
| JEL: | J30 C81 D31 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18794 |
| By: | Mikdash, Maya (Louisiana State University); Zhong, Jiee (Miami University) |
| Abstract: | We study the long-term effects of access to state-funded early childhood education on educational attainment and labor market outcomes. To do so, we exploit quasi-random variation across districts and cohorts generated by the phased rollout of Texas's large-scale public Pre-K program. Using restricted-access administrative data, we find that access to state-funded Pre-K substantially increases enrollment, particularly in districts without alternative preschool options. Additional results show that in districts that provide Pre-K simultaneously for three- and four-year-olds, access to Pre-K increases earnings at age 27 and high-school graduation by about 4 percent, with no effect on college enrollment. In contrast, access to Pre-K has no effects on labor market and educational outcomes in districts that primarily serve four-year-olds only. We provide suggestive evidence that the effectiveness of state-funded Pre-K depends on program funding rather than access alone. |
| Keywords: | state-funded prekindergarten, early childhood education, human capital, educational attainment, labor market outcomes |
| JEL: | I26 I28 J24 H52 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18790 |
| By: | Bamieh, Omar (Universidad Andres Bello); Cintolesi, Andrea (Bank of Italy); Pagliero, Mario (Collegio Carlo Alberto) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the earnings returns to occupational licensing by exploiting regression discontinuities at the Italian bar exam. Law graduates who became lawyers after barely passing the exam earned 20, 000 euros (50%) more per year than they would have in alternative occupations. This premium is not driven by monopoly rents from entry barriers. Instead, it reflects a compensating differential for the greater earnings risk inherent in the legal profession relative to the outside options available to law graduates. |
| Keywords: | labor market regulation, occupational licensing, field of study, lawyers |
| JEL: | J08 J44 L84 L50 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18816 |
| By: | Ioannis Laliotis; Christos A. Makridis |
| Abstract: | The Gallup World Poll (GWP) links internationally comparable measures of well-being and attitudes to a short labour-market module. We benchmark its employment and hours variables against EU Labour Force Survey (EU LFS) microdata in available European country-years from 2009 to 2023. Under a broad GWP definition that includes both part-time categories, the average country-level GWP-EU LFS employment-rate gap is approximately -1.0 percentage point. The pooled Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition yields a total gap of -0.85 points: observable composition accounts for -0.97 points and the unexplained component is 0.12 points, with a standard error of 1.99 points. This aggregate result masks country and demographic heterogeneity. A narrow definition that excludes part-time work understates employment by roughly 10-20 points. For hours, the GWP mean is 40.18 hours per week, compared with 37.41 in the EU LFS. Demographic reweighting reduces the aggregate difference from 2.77 to 1.99 hours, while group-specific reweighting raises each country-group difference by 0.11 to 0.58 hour. Hours reports generally require more recall and aggregation than binary employment status. The GWP limits this burden by anchoring employment to the preceding seven days and recording total weekly hours in five intervals. The resulting variable provides a common interval-based measure of work intensity; exact mean levels depend on the values assigned to those intervals. |
| Keywords: | survey validation, Gallup World Poll, EU Labour Force Survey, employment, hours worked |
| JEL: | C81 C83 J21 J22 I31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12848 |
| By: | Josh Feng; Xavier Jaravel |
| Abstract: | What are the implications of unequal access to entrepreneurial careers for labor markets? Using data from the U.S. Census and LinkedIn profiles, we document that entrepreneurs are significantly more likely to hire workers from similar social backgrounds (gender, race, age, education, etc.). These effects are quantitatively large across several demographic dimensions. For example, female employee share at female-founded startups is 36.4pp higher after controlling for industry-by-metro area-by-cohort fixed effects, with corresponding estimates of 51.2pp for Blacks, 37.3pp for Hispanics, and 11.3pp for non-college individuals. Large effects are present in high-growth startups, across industries and occupations, and remain stable across new firm cohorts. In addition, we find that these differences persist out to at least 20 years. We use wage data and an AKM research design to untangle whether the relative differences are driven by labor demand or labor supply effects. We find that demand drives the differences: group-specific wage decompositions show that new firms pay higher relative wages to individuals from similar backgrounds to the entrepreneur. Using these estimates, we calibrate a model of entrepreneurship with heterogeneous ability and production functions, and assess the impacts on relative wage from reducing access barriers to entrepreneurship. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, hiring, labor market, production functions |
| JEL: | L26 J31 D24 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-45 |
| By: | Gill, David (Purdue University); Prowse, Victoria (Purdue University); Reddinger, J. Lucas (Purdue University) |
| Abstract: | Teamwork requires more than the general skills that team members bring. In successful teams, members invest in team-specific skill or capital that accumulates within the team and raises the return to coordinated production. We provide the first systematic analysis of dynamic investment in such team skill. Adopting a dynamic game approach, we develop a novel theoretical framework where investment in team skill creates persistent benefits but is risky because the benefits depend on successful team coordination. We then take this framework to the laboratory to study empirically the factors that influence dynamic investment in team skill. We find underinvestment compared to the efficient benchmark. However, investment responds strongly to incentives, in line with specific theory-predicted patterns. Pre-registered traits (theory of mind and propensity to coordinate) predict investment and team-level efficiency. We conclude that careful design of team incentives and selection of team members can facilitate the development of team skill. |
| Keywords: | teams, team-specific capital, team-specific skill, investment, skill, coordination, theory of mind, dynamic game, repeated game, basin of attraction, subgame-perfect Nash equilibrium, Stag Hunt game, experiment, signaling, machine learning |
| JEL: | C73 C92 D91 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18833 |
| By: | Vilá, Joan (IECON, Universidad de la República); Bergolo, Marcelo (IECON, Universidad de la República); Cruces, Guillermo (University of Nottingham) |
| Abstract: | Standard welfare evaluations of means-tested transfers typically focus on households directly exposed to eligibility enforcement. We show that this approach misses important spillovers when enforcement events transmit information through workplace networks. We study Uruguay’s AFAM-PE conditional cash transfer, where income eligibility is monitored monthly using administrative records of formal earnings, but many beneficiaries have limited knowledge of the income rule. Linking program records, social security data, and firm identifiers, we construct workplace networks and estimate spillovers using a fuzzy RD design around the income threshold. Coworkers of peers just above the cutoff reduce registered labor earnings by 20%; the fuzzy RD estimate implies a decline of about one-third of baseline earnings following a peer’s suspension. The response is persistent, operates mainly through formal employment, and largely reflects transitions to informal work. Spillovers are stronger in small firms, among similar coworkers, and when peers contact the support service. Incorporating these indirect responses lowers the estimated MVPF from 0.53 to 0.36. |
| Keywords: | social assistance, income-testing, enforcement spillovers, peer effects, workplace networks, informality, MVPF |
| JEL: | H53 H75 I38 J13 J22 J46 O17 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18785 |
| By: | Rashidghalam, Masoomeh (University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran); Heshmati-Kim, Jieun (Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea); Heshmati, Almas (University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City) |
| Abstract: | AI is becoming a driving force in Vietnam’s economic transformation. The country is moving beyond a growth model based on low-cost labour and export-led industries. Adoptions of the widespread generative AI and AI-powered assistants have accelerated the transformation. AI, by reshaping the nature and future of work, redefines the rules and productivity. This research overviews the recent research investigating how AI is transforming work, demand for digital skills, and productivity gains in AI-adopting Vietnamese industries. An optimal blend of AI and human collaboration positively impacts its productivity. Application of AI enables the use of its potential, but it also has significant challenges and risks of skill gaps, training costs, trust, job quality, and distribution of its effects. Focusing on adaptability, lifelong learning, and integration of AI ensures a positive future of work. This study identifies factors determining the adoption of AI and heterogeneity in its productivity and future of work impacts. |
| Keywords: | AI application, nature of work, future of work, economic transformation, skill requirements, AI productivity impacts, Vietnam |
| JEL: | D24 E24 F63 J24 L52 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18825 |
| By: | Rakesh Banerjee (University of Exeter Business School); Tushar Bharati (Department of Economics, University of Western Australia); Adnan Fakir (University of Sussex Business School, Brighton, UK); Yiwei Qian (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, China) |
| Abstract: | Do flexible working hours benefit or hurt productivity? To answer this question, we conducted an experiment on a major online freelance platform. We began with three data entry job postings that were identical except for the level of flexibility in work hours. For each job, we invited a randomly selected group of freelancers to apply, and we hired all freelancers who accepted the job offer. Next, among the freelancers hired for jobs with no or limited flexibility, a randomly chosen subset was later granted full flexibility. We find that, compared to freelancers hired for the flexible job, those who had no flexibility in choosing work hours produced 25% fewer correct entries. Around 40% of this effect is explained by selection - more productive workers are more likely to choose flexible jobs. The remaining 60% is a direct effect of reduced flexibility in choosing work hour |
| Keywords: | work-hours flexibility, online freelancing jobs |
| JEL: | J22 O14 J16 L86 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:26-06 |
| By: | Haller, Andreas (Norwegian School of Economics); Staubli, Stefan (University of Calgary) |
| Abstract: | The central trade-off for designing Disability Insurance (DI) is between providing insurance to those in need while maintaining incentives to work. This paper develops a novel revealed-preference approach to identify the insurance value of DI benefits. We show that comparing the DI take-up response to a change in benefits versus a change in wages identifies the insurance value. Implementing our framework in Canada, we estimate that increasing DI benefits by $1 creates an additional disincentive cost of $0.60 but creates an insurance value of $2.20. Thus, our approach suggests that DI benefits are not overly generous in the Canadian context. |
| Keywords: | disability insurance, take-up, benefits, policy reform |
| JEL: | H53 H55 J14 J21 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18769 |
| By: | Omer Majeed; Sarah Davies; Nabeeh Zakariyya; Amee McMillan; Yun Jia |
| Abstract: | Non-compete clauses have become a focal point in debates over fairness and efficiency in modern labour markets. There is growing academic and policy interest in non-competes, yet evidence on wage effects remains largely US-focused. Using new Australian survey data linked to administrative records, we find no systematic evidence of wage compensation for the mobility restrictions associated with non-competes. We test robustness across multiple samples and methodologies. Furthermore, our novel results show that there is substantial heterogeneity: high-productivity firms show a positive association with wages, while low-productivity firms use non-competes widely without clear justification. Smaller firms also appear to adopt non-competes without much justification. We document substantial heterogeneity in non-compete coverage and examine how it varies with firm size, industry, workforce skill composition, and occupational diversity. Our broader findings raise concerns over both efficiency and equity and underscore the case for policy scrutiny. |
| Keywords: | non-competes, employment law, bargaining power, wages, mobility, incomplete markets |
| JEL: | J3 J4 J6 K12 L41 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2026-65 |
| By: | Hattori, Keisuke |
| Abstract: | We study a team in which a contributor produces intermediate work and hands it to a finisher, who completes and submits it under a deadline. Because a more able finisher can absorb more within the deadline, the contributor anticipates the rescue and hands off less, so delivered quality can fall as the finisher grows more able - a finisher's paradox. The mechanism is a reversal: a binding deadline makes the contributor reduce his handoff as finisher ability rises, unlike in complementary teams without a time constraint. Once the handoff falls below the quality-maximizing split, delivered quality and the finisher's payoff fall while the contributor's payoff rises. When the finisher chooses the ownership allocation, she gives the contributor less credit than would maximize delivered quality. When deadline authority is delegated to the finisher under the same delay cost, she never chooses a later deadline than the organization, and delivered quality is no higher. |
| Keywords: | team production, deadlines, sequential production, free-riding, delegation |
| JEL: | C72 D23 J24 L23 M12 M54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:342018 |
| By: | Brüll, Eduard |
| Abstract: | Many countries limit how long a worker may be kept on a temporary contract, yet little is known about how firms and workers respond when this maximum duration is tightened. Does a shorter cap simply displace temporary jobs, or does it push firms towards permanent hiring? I provide causal evidence on this duration margin using a 2001 German reform that restricted temporary contracts longer than two years in previously exempt small firms. Using difference-in-differences combined with propensity-score matching, I find that new jobs became around five percentage points more likely to start with a permanent contract, that contract durations bunched at the cap, and that overall employment was not adversely affected. Once the first capped contracts matured, turnover of short-tenure workers rose by a third to a half, but conversions to permanent contracts dominated this churn margin, and post-reform labour-market entrants saw higher early-career earnings and job stability. The findings speak directly to the current debate over lengthening such caps, including Germany's plan to double its own from two to four years. |
| Keywords: | Temporary Employment, Employment Protection, Labour Market Segmentation, Germany |
| JEL: | J21 J41 J68 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:341996 |
| By: | Nikolova, Milena (University of Groningen) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first causal evidence on how Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based workplace safety systems shape perceived job quality. I conducted a preregistered vignette experiment with a nationally representative sample of 2, 172 Dutch adults who evaluated otherwise identical workplaces introducing one of three safety systems: human supervisors, AI-only monitoring, or hybrid AI-human supervision. Compared with human supervision, both AI-only and hybrid systems reduced perceived job satisfaction, work meaningfulness, and perceived social value of the job. Contrary to expectations, combining AI with human supervisors did not mitigate these negative effects. Respondents also viewed AI-based systems as less respectful of workers' privacy and dignity, despite viewing them as effective as human supervisors. Perceived fair wages changed little across conditions. These findings suggest that AI can influence work not only by improving safety but also by reducing important non-pecuniary dimensions of job quality, highlighting that the welfare consequences of workplace AI extend beyond productivity and accident prevention. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence (AI), safety systems, survey experiment, work meaningfulness, job quality |
| JEL: | I39 J01 J28 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18782 |
| By: | Portes, Jonathan (King's College London); Savolainen, Riika (University of Swansea); Vallis, Dimitris (King's College London) |
| Abstract: | We analyse whether the post-pandemic rise in health-related economic inactivity and benefit receipt in the United Kingdom was disproportionately concentrated among working-age adults classified as clinically vulnerable to COVID-19. Using longitudinal data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study, linked to the Understanding Society COVID-19 Study, we treat preexisting vulnerability as a marker of differential exposure to the consequences of the pandemic. We combine coarsened exact matching with pooled pre/post and two-way fixed-effects difference-in-differences specifications. The main estimates indicate clinically vulnerable individuals were 1.3–2.1 percentage points more likely to become inactive because of long-term sickness after 2020. Relative to pre-pandemic rates, this corresponds to an increase of 20–40 per cent. Triple differences estimates are positive but imprecisely. We find no robust evidence of disproportionate increases in disability or incapacity benefit receipt. This suggests persistent relative deterioration in labour-market participation among clinically vulnerable individuals. The weaker relationship with benefit receipt suggests that institutional processes and programme design also play a major role. |
| Keywords: | economic inactivity, health, COVID-19, disability benefits |
| JEL: | J21 J14 I18 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18854 |
| By: | Patrinos, Harry Anthony; Rivera-Olvera, Angelica |
| Abstract: | Schooling increases earnings but getting causal information on the impact of schooling requires generating evidence from policy changes. In this paper, we estimate causal effects of additional education on earnings using new compulsory schooling law data across 16 European countries. We use recent and comparable microdata and analyze the impact of reforms on schooling and earnings. Results show that a year of education substantially increases earnings, especially for those with tertiary education. |
| Keywords: | Returns to education, compulsory schooling reforms, instrumental variables, causal inference, human capital, earnings, Europe |
| JEL: | I26 J31 C26 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1800 |
| By: | Dur, Robert (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Harms, Job (Ministry of Finance, The Netherlands); Non, Arjan (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Tinbergen Institute, and CESifo) |
| Abstract: | In countries with a complex tax system, it is difficult for people to correctly assess their effective marginal tax rate, which in turn can have important consequences for labor supply. We conduct a two-wave randomized survey experiment among a representative sample of the Dutch working-age population (N≈2, 000) to assess what misperceptions people have and whether addressing those misperceptions via an information intervention affects their labor supply. Our data show that people with low income greatly overestimate their marginal tax rate, while people with high income tend to slightly underestimate it. The information intervention results in more accurate perceptions of the effective marginal tax rate two months after treatment. Work hours of those who initially overestimated their marginal tax rate increase by 1.5 hours per week as a result of the information treatment. The implied compensated wage elasticity of labor supply is +0.3. The effect is concentrated among those who indicate in the first wave that they face no restrictions to increase their work hours. The information intervention reduces income inequality. |
| Keywords: | marginal tax rate, labor supply, information experiment, income inequality |
| JEL: | C83 C93 H24 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18870 |
| By: | Park, Seonyoung (Colgate University); Simpson, Nicole (Colgate University) |
| Abstract: | Married women’s labor supply in the United States has increased only slowly since the late 1990s, while married men’s labor supply has continued to decline. This slowdown in married women’s labor supply in recent decades masks substantial heterogeneity across households. From the late 1990s to the early 2020s, married mothers (with at least one child under age 15) experienced large increases in work hours, whereas women without children (non-mothers) saw only small increases. Over the same period, married fathers reduced work hours more than their counterparts without children while increasing time devoted to childcare. To explain these changes, we develop a two-earner life-cycle model in which labor supply and fertility are endogenous and spouses’ childcare time is substitutable. Counterfactuals show that the narrowing gender wage gap is the primary driver of recent shifts: it raises mothers’ work hours and lowers fathers’ work hours, in part by reallocating childcare toward fathers and thereby expanding mothers’ capacity to work and accelerating their human capital accumulation. |
| Keywords: | married women, labor supply, gender wage gap, childcare, heterogeneity, recent trend reversal |
| JEL: | E24 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18828 |
| By: | Gianluca Orefice; Giovanni Peri; Gianluca Santoni |
| Abstract: | Using employer-employee Italian data over the period 1998-2018 we analyze the impact of the largest regularization of undocumented immigrant workers in Italy on wage, employment and mobility outcomes of natives. Our empirical strategy takes advantage of the 2002 Bossi-Fini law that unexpectedly regularized 634, 000 undocumented non-EU immigrants, with variation across firms and provinces that was not correlated with previous economic performance. We find that the policy had a small effect on the average wage of native workers and positive effects on their employment at the local labor market level. Additionally, native co-workers in firms more affected by the policy were more likely to change employers in the post-policy period. Such higher mobility resulted in a heterogeneous wage effect across switchers: workers that managed to transition towards better firms experienced wage gains in the medium- and long-run, while other workers experienced wage losses. This implied an increase in wage dispersion for natives and some losers among Italian workers. |
| Keywords: | Workers;Firms;Immigrant Regularization;Local Labor Market |
| JEL: | F16 J20 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2026-09 |
| By: | Prudon, Roger (Lancaster University) |
| Abstract: | To increase the uptake of mental health care and reduce the burden of mental health, many countries have introduced programs offering easily accessible talk therapy. Despite their widespread introduction and continued expansion, causal evidence on these programs' effectiveness is lacking. I estimate the impact of a Dutch program that introduced talk therapy provided by nurse practitioners at GP practices nationwide. The reform increased talk therapy uptake by 6 percentage points among individuals seeking care but also widened existing disparities in care utilization. The increased take-up of talk therapy did not significantly improve the health and employment outcomes of patients. |
| Keywords: | mental health care, talk therapy, employment, health care inequalities |
| JEL: | J08 I1 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18773 |
| By: | Xue, Xindong (Zhongnan University of Economics and Law); Ye, Chunchen (Hubei Academy of Healthcare Security Reform and Development); Rocco, Lorenzo (University of Padova) |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of retirement on social capital in urban China. Using three waves of the China Family Panel Studies (2018–2022) and a fuzzy regression discontinuity design based on China’s statutory retirement ages, we document that retirement does not raise or lower social capital uniformly but reallocates it. Retirement causes bridging social capital to fall and bonding social capital to rise. The reallocation is concentrated among men, whose pre-retirement networks are more heavily workplace-centered. As governments around the world postpone statutory retirement ages in response to population ageing, our estimates imply that pension reforms carry social externalities of opposing sign that fiscal accounting omits. |
| Keywords: | retirement, social capital, fuzzy regression discontinuity, bridging and bonding social capital |
| JEL: | J26 Z13 I31 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18822 |
| By: | Giannakopoulos, Nicholas; Laliotis, Ioannis; Monastiriotis, Vassilis; Moustakas, Andreas |
| Abstract: | State-led decentralisation of collective bargaining may not only affect wages; it changes what a bargaining category means. In 2010–2013, Greek legislation suspended the favourability principle, withdrew extension of sectoral agreements, cut the statutory minimum wage, and opened firm-level bargaining to a new, non-union employee body. Using two decades of survey evidence alongside the hand-coded universe of sectoral and firm-level agreements, we estimate wave-specific, covariate-adjusted wage gaps and set the collective-bargaining estimates against the contracts that generated them. Our findings document a premium inversion: the firm-level wage gap, larger before the reform, collapses among small firms after it, while the sectoral gap rises and concentrates among lower-paid workers. Large firms retain a firm-level gap throughout, independent of the contractual floor. The contract data show why: post-reform firm-level floors converged on the statutory minimum, while the surviving sectoral gap reflects pre-crisis floors rather than renewed bargaining. Extension, favourability, and representation rules functioned as institutional complements; removing them together converted firm-level bargaining into an instrument of wage reduction and left a sectoral premium signalling inertia, not power. |
| Keywords: | collective bargaining;decentralisation;wage premia;wage floors;minimum wage;Greece |
| JEL: | J31 J51 J52 J58 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140491 |
| By: | Taghizadeh, Rahim (Department of Industrial Engineering, Urmia University of Technology, West Azerbaijan, Urmia, Iran.); Babazadeh Behestani, Salar (Allameh Tabatabaei University, Tehran, Iran.); Arabsheibani, Reza (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | generally a consensus remains elusive regarding the optimal method for measuring the effects of technological change and innovation on employment. This study introduces a Technological Change Composite Indicator (TCI), constructed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to synthesize seven firm-level innovation metrics. This methodology mitigates issues associated with multicollinearity in regression analyses involving correlated variables. The proposed TCI serves as a proxy for technological change to examine its association with employment in manufacturing sectors across 10 European Union countries and 17 seventeen manufacturing sectors with country fixed effects and a one‑year time lag. We find that a one‑unit increase in the TCI corresponds to a 0.58% higher employment level. The association is positive and statistically significant, indicating that a multidimensional measure of technological change outperforms traditional single proxies such as R&D expenditure or patent counts. By moving beyond narrow indicators, our approach offers a more reliable empirical basis for understanding the employment implications of technological change, including emerging technologies such as AI. |
| Keywords: | composite indicator, latent approach, technological change, employment, manufacturing industry, PCA analysis, regression method |
| JEL: | O33 J23 O14 C38 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18814 |
| By: | Yue Hua (International University of Japan); George Kudrna |
| Abstract: | Progressive income-contingent loans (ICLs), in which repayment rates rise with income, provide college students with insurance against post-graduation income risk. We study how ICL repayment size and progressivity jointly shape repayment dynamics, educational choices, and welfare. Using Australian longitudinal survey data, we estimate income processes and parameterize existing ICL repayment rules with repayment-size and progressivity parameters. We then estimate a heterogeneous-agent life-cycle model using the method of simulated moments and evaluate alternative repayment schedules under revenue neutrality. We find that greater repayment progressivity raises welfare only when combined with smaller required repayments. Existing Australian and UK policies are not generous enough given their degree of progressivity. The welfare-maximizing ICL combines moderate progressivity with a high repayment threshold. Free education produces nearly the same aggregate welfare as the optimal ICL, but the optimal policy retains some repayment revenue from high-income workers and requires lower income taxes. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; Student loans, income-contingent loans, progressivity, heterogeneousagent life-cycle model |
| JEL: | E24 D15 H52 I22 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2026_15 |
| By: | Christos A. Makridis |
| Abstract: | Does religious upbringing shape adult human development, or do observed differences primarily reflect continued participation later in life? I study this question using three waves of the Global Flourishing Study, covering 202, 898 adults across 21 countries and Hong Kong. The data link religious-service attendance around age 12 to detailed measures of childhood conditions, current religious activity, and repeated adult outcomes. Childhood attendance is associated with higher adult flourishing, health, meaning, relationships, character, and selected economic outcomes, although these differences narrow substantially after accounting for family background and parental religiosity. Life-course comparisons sharpen the interpretation. Adults whose frequent participation ended after childhood display no broad advantage, while adults who currently participate frequently have similar profiles whether or not they attended frequently as children. Continued participation from childhood is associated with a modest additional advantage in aggregate nonfinancial flourishing, health, relationships, and some economic outcomes. These activation contrasts retain the same sign across contemporaneous, prospective, and within-person specifications, but they are small relative to the broader gap associated with current participation and cannot be separated from selection into persistence or correlated recall of childhood attendance. Individual fixed-effects estimates further show that income and flourishing move together within person, but childhood religious formation does not systematically moderate this relationship. Thus, religion functions as a continuing life-course institution rather than an independently identified childhood treatment. |
| Keywords: | religion, childhood development, human capital, flourishing, income, panel data |
| JEL: | J13 J24 I31 Z12 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12870 |
| By: | Curi, Claudia (Free University of Bozen/Bolzano); Dibiasi, Andreas (Free University of Bozen/Bolzano); Nicolini, Francesco (Free University of Bozen/Bolzano); Ploner, Matteo (University of Trento); Tonin, Mirco (Free University of Bozen/Bolzano) |
| Abstract: | Using original survey data from working-age individuals in Northern Italy, we study longevity beliefs and other key knowledge components relevant for retirement decisions. We find substantial dispersion in population longevity beliefs, with 40% of individuals misestimating life expectancy by more than five years, and highly fragmented knowledge across domains. Providing actuarial life expectancy information -- tailored by age, gender, and county of residence -- does not affect beliefs about individuals’ own longevity or retirement plans, reflecting a disconnect between beliefs about one’s own longevity and that of others. We compare our results with forecasts provided by 262 academic experts. On average, experts accurately anticipate the levels and correlations of longevity literacy with other knowledge components, but they mispredict a strong updating response of own longevity expectations to the provision of population information that deviates markedly from what we observe in the data. |
| Keywords: | subjective longevity, expert forecasts, financial literacy, retirement |
| JEL: | D83 J26 D15 G50 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18863 |
| By: | Drydakis, Nick (Anglia Ruskin University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines how universities address modern slavery within their governance structures and practices, with reference to the UK Modern Slavery Act 2015. The study develops and applies the Modern Slavery Reflexive Assessment Scale, a sixty-item instrument grounded in the Pluralistic Framework for the Study of Economic Exploitation. Data were collected in 2025 from eighteen UK universities through structured assessments completed by institutional officers. The findings indicate that longer-standing institutional engagement and stronger sustainability performance are consistently associated with higher levels of reflexive practice, suggesting that continuity and embedded governance cultures support movement beyond symbolic compliance. Progress is most evident in policy development, governance arrangements, and sustainability integration. Engagement with intersectional and decolonial perspectives is limited, while survivor-centred practices, participatory monitoring, iterative learning, and systematic impact evaluation remain underdeveloped. The findings also provide the basis for developing the Reflexive Anti-Slavery Governance Model for Higher Education. |
| Keywords: | modern slavery, higher education governance, universities, UK Modern Slavery Act 2015, sustainability and universities, intersectional and decolonial perspectives, economic exploitation |
| JEL: | I23 I28 J47 J78 K31 K38 M14 O35 Q01 Z18 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18780 |
| By: | Groiss, Martin; Sondermann, David |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how monetary policy announcements affect firms’ employment expectations. Using German survey data, we combine high-frequency monetary policy surprises with survey response dates to identify the immediate and dynamic effects of monetary policy on firm-level expectations and subsequent employment. Contractionary shocks lead firms to revise employment plans downward immediately and persistently, eventually reducing employment growth. Initially, hiring plans are reduced, while layoffs increase later. Production expectations adjust twice as often but revert faster, consistent with greater labour market rigidity. Labour market institutions shape these responses: firms subject to the minimum wage or with lower collective bargaining coverage revise employment expectations more strongly. Financially constrained firms exhibit disproportionately larger downward revisions, indicating that the financial accelerator operates already at the expectation formation stage. Because firms adjust plans well before effects appear in aggregate data, employment expectations provide an early measure of monetary policy transmission to the labour market. JEL Classification: E24, E52, J20, J63 |
| Keywords: | employment expectation, hiring, labour market, monetary policy surprises, survey data |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263272 |
| By: | Cabrera Hernandez, Francisco Javier; López, Arnoldo; Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of a rise in female employment on municipal-level value added in Mexico. We combine economic census data with administrative records on the expansion of the Full-Time Schools Program (FTSP) to construct a shift-share instrument that links baseline female employment to predicted FTSP exposure between 2003 and 2018. Our estimates indicate that increasing female employment as a share of total employment increases the value added to gross output and fixed assets, as well as value added per worker, with no effect on wages, suggesting improvements in capital and labor efficiency. These effects are concentrated in municipalities with higher initial female employment rates, greater female educational attainment, and lower poverty levels. Such gains are driven primarily by increases in female employment in managerial and ownership roles. These results highlight the potential for increased female employment to enhance economic outcomes in contexts such as Mexico, where the female labor force participation rate remains stagnant. |
| JEL: | D20 J20 O40 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14668 |
| By: | Alon, Titan (University of California, San Diego); Doepke, Matthias (London School of Economics); Olmstead-Rumsey, Jane (London School of Economics and Political Science); Symons-Hicks, James (London School of Economics and Political Science); Tertilt, Michèle (University of Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | We study the transmission of macroeconomic shocks in a model of the household sector featuring single and married households, joint labor-supply decisions of women and men, and childcare needs that interact with the availability of remote work. Recessions concentrated among women are deeper and more persistent than those concentrated among men, reflecting weaker within-family insurance and a new empirical finding that women re-enter employment more slowly after job loss. Yet recovery from the pandemic recession, which had a disproportionate impact on working women due to school closures and the sectoral distribution of job losses, was surprisingly rapid. We show that in our model, the expansion of remote work and shifting caregiving norms after the pandemic raise female labor supply and men's share of childcare, thereby accounting for the observed recovery. These changes permanently increase female participation and narrow the gender earnings gap, but their effect on future recessions is limited: greater labor force attachment among women weakens the added-worker effect but also accelerates labor market re-entry, leading to offsetting effects on aggregate recession dynamics. |
| Keywords: | recessions, business cycle, he-cession, she-cession, pandemic recession, job loss, added worker effect, gender equality, female employment, school closures, childcare, gender wage gap |
| JEL: | D13 E32 J16 J20 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18830 |
| By: | Kaleem, Hira; Sakakibara, Anri; Wadho, Waqar; Siddique, Abu |
| Abstract: | Female labor force participation in LMICs remains persistently low, despite improvements in women's education, fertility, and income that would normally predict higher participation. We argue that this pattern can reflect a coordination failure sustained by miscalibrated second-order beliefs about community approval of women working outside the home. In many households, a woman's employment is determined by more than one decision-maker, and each may care about the perceived approval of both men and women in the community. Therefore, the binding misperception can lie in any of four belief cells: men's beliefs about men, men's beliefs about women, women's beliefs about men, or women's beliefs about women. We study these possibilities using novel primary survey data from more than 4, 000 low-income Pakistani households. Within households, we elicit each respondent's own support for women's work, second-order beliefs about community support, and the target woman's labor-market behavior, comparing households within the same census block. We find that support for women's work is widely underestimated, especially support among women, so communities are substantially more accepting than their members believe. The belief most strongly associated with a woman's search and work history is her own perception of other women's approval. Male household members' beliefs matter mainly for women's current employment status, consistent with their role in granting permission. The belief that appears most important is also correlated across generations along gender lines: mothers' beliefs about women predict daughters' beliefs about women. Evidence on mechanisms points most strongly to social learning about respectability rather than the anticipation of social sanctions from other women. |
| Keywords: | Women working outside the home, social norms, misperceptions, second-order beliefs, pluralistic ignorance, peer effects, Pakistan |
| JEL: | J16 J22 D13 D83 O12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1786 |