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on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages |
| By: | Nickolas Gagnon; Kristof Bosmans; Arno Riedl |
| Abstract: | We conduct an online experiment to study how the unfairness of chances leading to wage inequality affects labor supply decisions. We find that, at a given wage, disadvantageous wage inequality reduces labor supply, but whether this inequality stems from fair or unfair chances does not matter. That is, a procedure with fair chances does not compensate for wage inequality. Our results stand in stark contrast to prior empirical evidence showing that individuals care about fair chances when making equity judgments. |
| Keywords: | D63, D90, J22, J31, M52 |
| JEL: | D63 D90 J22 J31 M52 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12102 |
| By: | Peter Ganong; Pascal J. Noel; Christina Patterson; Joseph S. Vavra; Alexander Weinberg |
| Abstract: | This paper uses high-frequency administrative data to show that the majority of U.S. workers experience substantial month-to-month fluctuations in pay, even within ongoing employment relationships. This earnings instability is pervasive, but it has been masked in past analysis of annual data. Moreover, this instability is unequally distributed: lower-income, hourly workers face more instability than higher-income, salaried workers. This is because earnings instability arises in large part from firm-driven fluctuations in hours. This earnings instability is a meaningful source of economic risk: we provide causal evidence that it increases consumption volatility and also leads to greater job separations, and we find that workers have a high willingness to pay to reduce earnings instability. These findings suggest that short-term earnings risk is a significant and previously underappreciated feature of the labor market. |
| JEL: | E21 J23 J31 J33 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34227 |
| By: | Esther Arenas-Arroyo; Jacob Fabian; Friederike Mengel; Bernhard Schmidpeter; Michel Serafinelli |
| Abstract: | How does firms' skill demand change as the business landscape evolves? We present evidence from the green transition by analyzing how hurricanes impact demand for green skills. These disasters signal the risks of not acting on environmental issues. Using data from U.S. online job postings (2010--2019) and hurricane paths, we create a new measure of green job postings. Firms in areas affected by hurricanes are 6.4% more likely to post jobs that require green skills after the event, particularly those serving local markets. |
| Keywords: | green skills, green transition, online job postings, hurricanes |
| JEL: | J23 Q54 L20 J24 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12110 |
| By: | Benjamin W. Cowan; Todd R. Jones |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how people adjust their time use when they experience an increase in time spent alone, which is a growing share of adults’ lives. We utilize the dramatic rise in remote work following the onset of the pandemic, which is associated with a large decline in time spent in the physical presence of non-household members during the workday, to observe the extent to which individuals substitute toward more in-person interactions in non-work settings. We first document that on days that individuals work from home, they spend 3.5 additional hours in activities spent entirely alone and over 5 fewer hours in activities that include any non-household members. We then use a difference-in-difference strategy to ask what happens to time allocations when workers are induced toward remote work by analyzing changes over time in how workers in teleworkable occupations—who experienced the lion’s share of the post-COVID increase in remote work—spend their time relative to workers in non-teleworkable occupations. Averaging over all days of the week, we see a relative increase in time spent in activities spent entirely alone by 32 minutes and a decrease in activities that include any non-household members by 38 minutes for workers in teleworkable jobs. Normalizing by the increase in average daily remote work time (46 minutes), these estimates are of a similar magnitude to what we observe in our descriptive analysis. When individuals are induced to work from home, they exhibit almost no substitution toward spending more time with others who are not in their household to make up for the loss of time with others at work. |
| Keywords: | work from home, social isolation, time use |
| JEL: | J22 J24 I31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12117 |
| By: | Mikko Silliman; Alexander L.P. Willén |
| Abstract: | This paper reconsiders how labor market competition shapes skill development --- integrating the perspectives of both firms and workers. While existing models often predict that firms will underinvestment in training due to a fear of poaching, we show that competition can instead serve as a catalyst for learning. It creates outside opportunities which incentivize workers to invest in their own skills, and it imposes innovation pressure that raises the value of training for firms. Using linked Norwegian survey and administrative data together with vignette experiments, we find that workers in more competitive markets accumulate skills faster than workers in concentrated markets—primarily through informal, self-directed learning—and that these gains are concentrated in higher-order, transferable skills. Firms in competitive environments also invest more in formal training, treating it as a strategic necessity rather than a dispensable cost. Experimental evidence complements these findings by showing that both workers and managers expect greater returns to learning and human capital investments in competitive markets. Together, these results challenge the canonical view of competition as a source of market failure in training, and instead highlight its role in facilitating both worker-led and firm-led investments in human capital. |
| Keywords: | competition, human capital, skills, learning |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J42 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12114 |
| By: | Adam Lavecchia; James Stutely |
| Abstract: | This paper documents sharp bunching in third-party reported employment earnings at a basic exemption for social security contributions among older workers. Beginning in 2012, workers age 60-64 who were receiving a public pension were required to make social security contributions equal to 9.9 percent of their employment earnings above a basic exemption threshold of $3, 500. Using administrative data on third-party reported earnings and a differences-in- bunching estimator we document sharp bunching at the $3, 500 threshold. We argue that our results represent new evidence on the role of firms in mediating the earnings response to payroll taxes. |
| Keywords: | social security contributions, sharp bunching, employment earnings |
| JEL: | H20 H24 H25 H31 H32 H55 J22 J23 J38 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12112 |
| By: | Obst, Daniel |
| Abstract: | Many employees work more than they would prefer. This paper examines whether social comparisons contribute to this mismatch by inducing individuals to prioritize income over leisure. I use a within-subject survey experiment with university students in which participants repeatedly choose between higher income and reduced working hours under two conditions: one where their choice affects relative income and one where it does not. When upward comparisons are present, the share choosing higher income rises from 36% to 47%, consistent with status concerns driving longer working hours. The design mirrors a prisoner's dilemma: individuals prefer shorter hours but work more to avoid falling behind in income. When the additional income is tied to specific spending categories, the strongest increases in choosing higher income occur for clothing and shoes, food, education, health, and private pension plans-indicating that status concerns extend beyond conspicuous consumption to include long-term investments. Consistent with an established measure of status sensitivity (Solnick & Hemenway, 1998), status-oriented individuals respond more strongly to relative income cues. These findings suggest that labor supply decisions can exhibit positional externalities, with implications for working-time coordination and employee wellbeing |
| Keywords: | social comparisons, labor supply, working time preferences, status competition, positional externalities, income inequality |
| JEL: | J22 D91 J31 D31 C83 C99 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifsowp:325831 |
| By: | Tarek A. Hassan; Aakash Kalyani; Pascual Restrepo |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that the pace of technology creation is a key driver of wage inequality. It develops a model where college-educated workers learn how to use new technologies faster than others, and where this advantage dissipates over time as technologies become standardized and easier to use. In equilibrium, the college wage premium is determined by the interplay between the pace of technology creation and standardization. A heightened pace of technology creation causes a long-lasting increase in the college premium. We calibrate the model using novel text-based data on new technologies and their changing demand for skills as they age. These data show that new technologies initially require more college-educated workers but see a reversal as they age. The data also point to an increased rate of new technology creation starting in the 1980s and tapering off in the 2000s. In response to this measured acceleration in the pace of technology creation, the model generates a 25 log point increase in the college premium that begins to revert in the 2010s. In extensions, we allow new technologies to diffuse from dense to lower-density cities, and younger workers to have a comparative advantage in new technologies. These extensions explain why the college premium is generally higher in dense cities, why its increase was mainly an urban phenomenon, and why it had a marked age pattern, rising first for young workers and then for older workers. |
| Keywords: | technology; college premium |
| JEL: | J31 O33 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–03–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:101744 |
| By: | Amory Gethin; Emmanuel Saez |
| Abstract: | This paper uses labor force surveys from 160 countries to build a new microdatabase on hours worked covering 97% of the world population in cross section. We also construct time series spanning over 20 years in 86 countries. Hours worked per adult are slightly bell-shaped with GDP per capita but weakly correlated with development overall. Hours worked by the young (aged 15-19) and elderly (aged 60+) decline with development, driven by growing school attendance and public pension coverage. Hours worked among prime-age adults (aged 20-59) are mildly bell-shaped with development for men while they are increasing for women. The fall in male hours in middle-to-higher income countries is driven by reduced hours per worker and is offset by increases in female labor force participation. These two forces have exactly compensated each other in many countries, leading to a remarkable long-run stability of prime-age hours worked. Labor taxes are strongly negatively correlated with prime-age hours worked both in international comparisons and overtime within countries. Controlling for government transfers only partly reduces the link between labor taxes and prime-age hours, ruling out substitution and income effects on labor supply as the only driver. Controlling for working hours regulations and the size of the formal sector eliminates this link, suggesting that regulations also play a large role in reducing intensive hours in higher-income countries. |
| JEL: | H20 J20 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34217 |
| By: | Edoardo Di Porto; Pietro Garibaldi; Giovanni Mastrobuoni; Paolo Naticchioni |
| Abstract: | Flexible work arrangements (FWAs) are often promoted as a means to regularise informal labour. Utilising unique Italian administrative data that links employer-employee records, daily voucher usage by firms, and randomly timed labour inspections (2014-2017), we demonstrate that FWAs can also hinder enforcement and increase undeclared work. We document that, upon inspection, some firms validate undeclared work with FWAs on the spot, raising the probability of FWA usage by 0.88 percentage points (18%) on average, with the largest increases occurring on the day of and the day after the inspection. A simple partial-equilibrium labour-demand model with heterogeneous tax morale rationalises these “on-the-spot” validations as an enforcement-avoidance margin. The post-inspection increase vanishes when firms are required to pre-notify the tax authority of their use of FWAs. Moreover, when FWAs are completely abolished, presumptive misusers substitute FWAs with temporary contracts. |
| Keywords: | informality, labour vouchers, flexible work arrangements, occasional work, zero-hour contracts |
| JEL: | J23 H26 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12115 |
| By: | Julie Berry Cullen; Gordon B. Dahl; Richard De Thorpe |
| Abstract: | How does being over- or underqualified at the beginning of a worker's career affect skill acquisition, retention, and promotion? Despite the importance of mismatch for the labor market, self-selection into jobs has made estimating these effects difficult. We overcome endogeneity concerns in the context of the US Air Force, which allocates new enlistees to over 130 different jobs based, in part, on test scores. Using these test scores, we create simulated job assignments based on factors outside of an individual's control: the available slots in upcoming training programs and the quality of other recruits entering at the same time. These factors create quasi-random variation in job assignment and hence how cognitively demanding an individual's job is relative to their own ability. We find that being overqualified for a job causes higher attrition, both during technical training and afterward when individuals are working in their assigned jobs. It also results in more behavioral problems, worse performance evaluations, and lower scores on general knowledge tests about the military taken by all workers. On the other hand, overqualification results in better performance relative to others in the same job: job-specific test scores rise both during technical training and while on the job, and these individuals are more likely to be promoted. Combined, these patterns suggest that overqualified individuals are less motivated, but still outperform others in their same job. Underqualification results in a polar opposite set of findings, suggesting these individuals are motivated to put forth more effort, but still struggle to compete when judged relative to others. Consistent with differential incentives, individuals who are overqualified are in jobs which are less valuable in terms of outside earnings potential, while the reverse is true for those who are underqualified. |
| JEL: | J24 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34215 |
| By: | Aakash Kalyani; Serdar Ozkan |
| Abstract: | We develop a novel measure of firm-level marginal labor cost and investigate its pass-through to inflation. To construct this measure, we apply textual analysis to earnings calls to identify discussions of labor-related topics such as higher costs, shortages, and hiring. Leveraging the theoretical principle that cost-minimizing firms equate marginal costs across variable inputs, we project changes in firms intermediate input revenue shares onto the intensity of labor-related discussions to quantify their contributions to marginal labor costs. This approach provides an economically-motivated way to reduce the multidimensional qualitative textual information into a single quantitative measure. An aggregate index from this measure tracks closely with conventional aggregate slack variables and outperforms them in forecasting inflation. When aggregated at the industry level, we find a significant but heterogeneous pass-through of marginal labor costs to PPI inflation, with the pass-through highest for service sector and near-zero for manufacturing. Consistent with the latter fact, firm-level data reveal that investment in automation mitigates the effects of higher labor cost pressures in manufacturing. |
| Keywords: | wage inflation; automation; textual data; machine learning |
| JEL: | E24 J24 J31 J64 |
| Date: | 2025–07–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:101743 |
| By: | Lavy, Victor (University of Warwick, Hebrew University, and NBER); Rachkovski, Genia (Tel Aviv University); Yoresh, Omry (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Literature has shown that air pollution can have short- and long-term adverse effects on physiological and cognitive performance. In this study, we estimate the effect of increased pollution levels on the likelihood of accidents in construction sites, a significant factor related to productivity losses in the labor market. Using data from all construction sites and pollution monitoring stations in Israel, we find a strong and significant causal effect of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), one of the primary air pollutants, on construction site accidents. We find that a 10-ppb increase in NO2 levels increases the likelihood of an accident by as much as 25 percent. Importantly, our findings suggest that these effects are non-linear. While moderate pollution levels, according to EPA standards, compared to clean air levels, increase the likelihood of accidents by 138 percent, unhealthy levels increase it by 377 percent. We present a mechanism where the effect of pollution is exacerbated in conditions with high cogitive strain or reduced awareness. Finally, we perform a cost-benefit analysis, supported by a nonparametric estimation calculating the implied number of accidents due to NO2 exposure, and examining a potential welfare-improving policy to subsidize the closure of construction sites on highly polluted days. |
| Keywords: | Workplace Accidents ; Labor Productivity ; Air Pollution, Government Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1575 |
| By: | Lysova, Evgenia I.; Fletcher, Luke |
| Abstract: | As interest in meaningful work is growing both from scholars and practitioners, it is of great importance to provide an overview of the meaningful work literature to date. In this chapter, we zoom in on the developments so far in the field of organizational psychology and organizational behavior. We first reflect on the conceptualization of meaningful work, the theoretical framework underlying research in the field, and methodological considerations. Then, we provide an overview of antecedents and outcomes of meaningful work in the form of an input-process-output model. Among antecedents, we discuss person-focused, relations-focused, work and occupational context-focused, organization-focused, and society-focused factors. In relation to the outcomes of meaningful work, we highlight the range of them researched to date, focusing on work-related attitudes, behavioral work outcomes, work-family-non-work interplay, and health and wellbeing. As we provide an overview of the extant research so far, we critically reflect on key problematic gaps, challenges, and assumptions. In doing so, we provide ideas for important future research directions that aim to promote interdisciplinary and forward-looking development of the meaningful work field. |
| Keywords: | meaningful work, work meaningfulness, meaning in work, organizational behavior, organizational psychology |
| JEL: | J24 J28 J81 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1667 |
| By: | Ciaschi, Matias; Falcone, Guillermo; Garganta, Santiago; Gasparini, Leonardo; Bertín, Octavio; Ramírez-Leira, Lucía |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the potential distributional consequences of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption in Latin American labor markets. Using harmonized household survey data from 14 countries, we combine four recently developed AI occupational exposure indices---the AI Occupational Exposure Index (AIOE), the Complementarity-Adjusted AIOE (C-AIOE), the Generative AI Exposure Index (GBB), and the AI-Generated Occupational Exposure Index (GENOE)--to analyze patterns across countries and worker groups. We validate these measures by comparing task profiles between Latin America and high-income economies using PIAAC data, and develop a contextual adjustment that incorporates informality, wage structures, and union coverage. Finally, we simulate first order impacts of AI-induced displacement on earnings, poverty, and inequality. The results show substantial heterogeneity, with higher levels of AI- related risk among women, younger, more educated, and formal workers. Indices that account for task complementarities show flatter gradients across the income and education distribution. Simulations suggest that displacement effects may lead to only moderate increases in inequality and poverty in the absence of mitigating policies. |
| JEL: | O33 J21 D31 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14253 |
| By: | Gabriel Ahlfeldt (HU Berlin); Fabian Bald (Viadrina University); Duncan Roth (Institute for Employment Research (IAB)); Tobiad Seidel (University of Duisburg-Essen) |
| Abstract: | We employ a quantitative spatial model that accounts for trade fritions—generated by trade costs and non-tradable services—and mobility frictions—generated by idiosyncratic tastes and local ties—to recover unobserved quality of life (QoL) and estimate the urban QoL premium. For Germany, we find that a city twice as large offers, on average, a 22% higher QoL to the average resident—far exceeding the urban wage premium of 4%. Our model-based Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the lack of strong empirical evidence for an urban QoL premium in earlier literature likely stems from measurement error in the Rosen-Roback framework due to omitted spatial frictions. |
| Keywords: | housing; spatial frictions; rents; prices; productivity; quality of life; spatial equilibrium; wages; |
| JEL: | J2 J3 R2 R3 R5 |
| Date: | 2025–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:544 |
| By: | Sagiri KITAO; Michio SUZUKI; Tomoaki YAMADA |
| Abstract: | This paper examines life-cycle earnings risk and income inequality in Japan using municipal administrative tax records covering the period 2011–2021. We estimate an age-dependent quantile model that decomposes idiosyncratic earnings into persistent and transitory components, allowing persistence to vary nonlinearly with individuals’ positions in the earnings distribution and the size of shocks. We find that persistence is high for shocks consistent with an individual’s earnings history but falls sharply for “reversal†shocks, which may represent career changes. Cross-sectional analysis shows that households pool income effectively: equivalized household income displays lower dispersion and a J-shaped life-cycle inequality profile compared to a monotonically rising profile for individual earnings. However, impulse response analysis reveals that when individuals or households at a given percentile of the persistent component distribution receive either a high or low percentile draw from the innovation distribution, the resulting earnings changes are larger for equivalized household earnings than for the earnings of the household head alone. This indicates that household and individual earnings distributions have distinct dynamic properties, with household-level responses potentially reflecting correlated spousal shocks, joint labor supply decisions, and demographic adjustments. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25081 |
| By: | Benison Thomas (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); David Maré (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | Ethnic wage gaps are a substantial and persistent issue in New Zealand. Understanding the drivers of such gaps is key to understanding the economic, social, and institutional factors that contribute to labour market inequality and to identifying measures to reduce gaps. Using household survey data from 2009 to 2023, this study implements a version of the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method to examine the sources of ethnic wage gaps in New Zealand. Our results confirm the pattern of disadvantage previously documented for non-European ethnic groups. Differences in demographic, educational, and job characteristics account for substantial portions of the wage gaps for M?ori, Pacific, and European groups. After accounting for differences in mean characteristics, sizeable wage gaps remain, providing insight into the degree of ethnic labour market disadvantage that is due to unobservable characteristics or broader systemic factors. |
| Keywords: | Ethnicity, wages, decomposition, Aotearoa New Zealand |
| JEL: | J30 J15 J71 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:25_06 |
| By: | Roberto Dell'Anno (Department of Economics and Statistics - University of Salerno - Italy and CELPE) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an empirical and institutional evaluation of the Italian National Scientific Qualification (ASN) in the field of Public Economics (sector 13/A3), based on data from the 2021– 2023 assessment cycle. The analysis examines the scientific profiles of applicants and those who qualified, focusing on their research output, thematic interests, and the determinants of qualification outcomes. We investigate whether obtaining the qualification leads to actual recruitment and how such effects vary across disciplinary sectors. Results indicate that the benefits of ASN (i.e., actual hiring into associate or full professorships) are largely concentrated among candidates already affiliated with Public Economics, and internal candidates exhibit a clear advantage over their external counterparts. These findings underscore the enduring influence of institutional proximity and network dynamics, despite the formal role of national evaluation standards. The study concludes with a set of targeted policy recommendations aimed at improving fairness, transparency, and the overall effectiveness of academic hiring practices in the Italian university system. |
| Keywords: | Higher Education recruitment; Research evaluation; Academic career; National Scientific Qualification; Public Economics |
| JEL: | H00 H83 I23 J45 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sal:celpdp:021543 |
| By: | Mertens, Matthias; Mottironi, Bernardo |
| Abstract: | Combining financial statements with firm-level product prices, we find that larger firms exhibit lower markups, although they are overcompensated by substantially higher wage markdowns. We explain our divergence from prior results by highlighting how labor market power affects markup estimates. |
| Keywords: | firm size; markdowns; market power; markups |
| JEL: | L11 L13 L25 J42 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128958 |
| By: | Aristizábal-Ramírez, María; Santos, Cezar; Torres, Alejandra |
| Abstract: | This paper examines labor markets across Latin American countries and documents large differences in labor market outcomes across these countries. Using comparable data for eight countries, we show that unemployment and informality act as substitute states and cluster countries into high-unemployment or high-informality groups. Labor market transitions vary systematically across these groups and help explain differences in employment dynamics. Embedding country-specific transitions in a simple model, we show that these differences have meaningful macroeconomic implications: countries with more volatile labor markets exhibit higher asset accumulation and greater consumption inequality. Moreover, heterogeneity in labor market transitions produces different effects on how taxation influences savings and inequality. |
| Keywords: | Labor markets;Informality;Unemployment;Transitions |
| JEL: | E24 E26 J46 O54 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14256 |
| By: | Daniel Graeber; Lorenz Meister; Carsten Schröder; Sabine Zinn |
| Abstract: | Machine learning is increasingly used in social science research, especially for prediction. However, the results are sometimes not as straight-forward to interpret compared to classic regression models. In this paper, we address this trade-off by comparing the predictive performance of random forests and logit regressions to analyze labor market vulnerabilities during the COVID-19 pandemic, and a global surrogate model to enhance our understanding of the complex dynamics. Our study shows that, especially in the presence of non-linearities and feature interactions, random forests outperform regressions both in predictive accuracy and interpretability, yielding policy-relevant insights on vulnerable groups affected by labor market disruptions |
| Keywords: | Machine learning, interpretability, labor market, random forests |
| JEL: | C45 C53 C25 J08 I18 C83 J21 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1230 |
| By: | Drydakis, Nick |
| Abstract: | The study evaluates the effectiveness of a 12-week AI module delivered to non-STEM university students in England, aimed at building students' AI Capital, encompassing AI-related knowledge, skills, and capabilities. An integral part of the process involved the development and validation of the AI Capital of Students scale, used to measure AI Capital before and after the educational intervention. The module was delivered on four occasions to final-year students between 2023 and 2024, with follow-up data collected on students' employment status. The findings indicate that AI learning enhances students' AI Capital across all three dimensions. Moreover, AI Capital is positively associated with academic performance in AI-related coursework. However, disparities persist. Although all demographic groups experienced progress, male students, White students, and those with stronger backgrounds in mathematics and empirical methods achieved higher levels of AI Capital and academic success. Furthermore, enhanced AI Capital is associated with higher employment rates six months after graduation. To provide a theoretical foundation for this pedagogical intervention, the study introduces and validates the AI Learning-Capital-Employment Transition model, which conceptualises the pathway from structured AI education to the development of AI Capital and, in turn, to improved employment outcomes. The model integrates pedagogical, empirical and equity-centred perspectives, offering a practical framework for curriculum design and digital inclusion. The study highlights the importance of targeted interventions, inclusive pedagogy, and the integration of AI across curricula, with support tailored to students' prior academic experience. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence, AI literacy, AI Capital, University students, Grades, Academic performance, Employment rates |
| JEL: | I23 I21 J24 J21 O33 O15 I24 J15 J16 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1668 |
| By: | Anthony Scott (Centre for Health Economics, Monash Business School, Monash University); Susan Méndez (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne); Jongsay Yong (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of a fall in demand for voluntary private health insurance on physician behaviour. We find that dual practice physicians who earned more revenue from working in private hospitals before the fall in demand for PHI were more likely to experience a fall in the volume of private hospital care and a less complex mix of in-hospital services provided. Risk-averse doctors drove this reduction in complexity. There was weak evidence suggesting that doctors compensated for the fall in volume by increasing their working hours in public hospitals and reducing fees for in-hospital services. We found no evidence of higher volumes of care in out-of-hospital visits to compensate for the lower in-hospital volumes, but some weak evidence of claiming for more complex and costly out-of-hospital services, which we interpret as upcoding. Compensatory behaviours were small and primarily observed among risk- averse male doctors with low conscientiousness, from non-surgical specialties, and located in areas with lower doctor density. |
| Keywords: | health insurance, physician behaviour |
| JEL: | I11 I13 J44 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mhe:chemon:2025-14 |
| By: | Svetlana Pashchenko (University of Georgia); Ponpoje Porapakkarm (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies) |
| Abstract: | Three key drivers of savings are life-cycle, precautionary, and bequest motives. What is their relative quantitative importance? We revisit this question focusing on the role of preferences and institutions. We address the challenge of disentangling the effects of different saving motives on one's decisions by considering many aspects of people's behavior both before and after retirement. We illustrate why this approach is informative about the underlying preference parameters, and hence allows us to uncover the relative strength of different motives. Our decomposition exercises reveal that bequest motive is the key driver of savings starting from the middle-age and long before retirement. We also find that life-cycle motive and precautionary motive due to medical expense shocks play a minor role. The former result is due the crowding out effect of Social Security. The latter is due to the combined effect of health insurance and the means-tested transfers. |
| Keywords: | precautionary savings, bequest, institutions, social security, Preferences |
| JEL: | D81 D91 J32 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2025-008 |
| By: | Christopher L. Foote; Shigeru Fujita; Amanda M. Michaud; Joshua Montes |
| Abstract: | We suggest a core set of indicators for evaluating the position of the labor market relative to maximum employment. The unemployment rate remains the key indicator of the cyclical position of the labor market, as it is time-tested, is highly correlated with other indicators, and has practical measurement advantages. But other indicators can provide complementary evidence to get a fuller picture of the labor market. A joint analysis of job vacancies and unemployment in a Beveridge curve diagram is helpful when structural shocks affect the labor market and when the labor market is very tight, while the employment-to population ratio is useful late in expansions, when increases in employment tend to arise from higher labor force participation. Additional indicators—including wage growth and worker flows—can complement the core indicators we discuss. We draw on lessons from the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic to evaluate the effectiveness of various indicators. |
| Keywords: | Maximum employment; unemployment; job vacancies; labor force participation; wages; business cycle |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J23 |
| Date: | 2025–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:101756 |