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on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages |
| By: | Joshua S. Gans |
| Abstract: | Empirical measures of AI's wage effect typically hold fixed the bundle of activities a worker is paid for at its pre-AI shape. We argue that this assumption hides much of the action. When automation breaks a job apart, firms decide how to recombine the surviving activities; whether they rebundle them into one broad role or split them into specialist roles changes which surviving skills the labour market actually rewards. A skill that played no role in the pre-AI wage can become the dominant component of the post-AI wage, while a skill that anchored the pre-AI wage can disappear from the schedule. We develop an assignment model in which the priced human bundle is endogenous, and we use it to show that a fixed-bundle wage regression can mis-sign the effect of AI exposure. In general, the omitted-redesign bias has no unconditional sign: it is the residual covariance between exposure and role-specific redesign terms. Under explicit sufficient conditions, exposure-correlated unbundling loads specialist comparative-advantage premia onto the exposure coefficient, while exposure-correlated rebundling loads a different, often opposite, omitted term. The sign must therefore be measured from local post-AI partition changes rather than assumed from exposure alone. |
| JEL: | D23 J23 J24 J31 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35211 |
| By: | Kofol, Chiara (Economics & Data ED23 GmbH); Kriechel, Ben (Economics & Data ED23 GmbH); Melnyk, Maryna (Economics & Data ED23 GmbH); Vetter, Tim (Economics & Data ED23 GmbH); Badescu, Mircea (European Training Foundation (ETF)) |
| Abstract: | The current literature finds that many employees in low and middle-income countries are over-qualified for their jobs or are employed in an occupation that is unrelated to their principal field of study. Vertical and horizontal mismatches signal that workers cannot fully utilise their skills, implying a potential loss of human capital. However, the current literature scarcely explores the determinants and wage penalties of horizontal and vertical skills mismatches comparably across countries, as well as their co-occurrence. We analyse the determinants of vertical and horizontal skills mismatch between 2016 and 2019 using the Labour Force Survey (LFS) of Serbia, Albania, Türkiye, Georgia, Armenia, Egypt, and Palestine. Consistent with the existing literature, the findings show that socio-demographic, job-related, and geographic characteristics determine vertical and horizontal mismatches, as well as their combined occurrence. The results also show that overeducation imposes a wage penalty, that horizontal mismatch is associated with a wage premium of approximately 7.5%, and that the combination of overeducation and horizontal mismatch yields a small positive net effect of approximately 1%. |
| Keywords: | skills mismatch, over-education, under-education, horizontal mismatch, cross-country analysis |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J21 I26 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18609 |
| By: | Xiao Ma; Alejandro Nakab; Daniela Vidart |
| Abstract: | How do the sources of worker learning change over the lifecycle, and how does this affect human capital and wages? Using data from Germany and the US, we document that internal learning (from coworkers) decreases with experience, while external learning (on-the-job training) follows an inverted U-shape. We develop a search model featuring multiple learning sources whose returns evolve as workers age and accumulate human capital. Quantitative results indicate that the interaction between sources is key to lifecycle wage dynamics and the effects of remote work, which disrupts internal learning and early-career wage growth, though external learning partially offsets these losses. |
| JEL: | E24 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35199 |
| By: | Ben Sprung-Keyser; Sonya Porter |
| Abstract: | We examine how place shapes the production of human capital across the lifecycle. We ask: do those places that most effectively produce human capital in childhood also have local labor markets that do so in adulthood? We consider the following determinants of wages across place: 1) location-specific wage premiums, 2) adult human capital accumulation due to local labor market exposure, and 3) childhood human capital accumulation. We construct estimates of location wage premiums using AKM-style estimates of movers across US commuting zones and validate these estimates using evidence from plausibly exogenous out-migration from New Orleans in response to Hurricane Katrina. Next, we examine differential earnings trajectories among movers to construct estimates of human capital accumulation due to labor market exposure. We validate these estimates using wage changes of multi-time movers. Finally, we estimate the impact of place on childhood human capital production using age variation in moves during childhood. Crucially, our estimates of location wage premiums and adult human capital accumulation allow us to construct estimates of the causal effect of place during childhood that are not confounded by correlated labor market exposure. Using these estimates, we show there is a tradeoff between those places that most effectively produce human capital in childhood and the local labor markets that do so in adulthood. We find that each 1-rank increase in earnings due to adult labor market exposure trades off with a 0.5 rank decrease in earnings due to the local childhood environment. This pattern is closely linked to city size, as adult human capital accumulation generally increases with city size, while childhood human capital accumulation falls. These divergent trajectories are associated with differences in both the physical structure of cities and the nature of social interaction therein. |
| JEL: | H0 J0 J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35203 |
| By: | Cass, Leanne; Frattini, Federico Fabi; Saussay, Aurelien; Sato, Misato; Vona, Francesco |
| Abstract: | There is growing evidence that green jobs have higher skill requirements, but whether they offer sufficient wage incentives to encourage workers to acquire those skills remains unclear. We study the green wage premium and its drivers to isolate the average return to green tasks using online job vacancy (OJV) data for EU countries over the period 2018-2023. We develop a transparent LLM-based approach to classify job vacancies as green when they list at least one green task. Green jobs pay a premium of 5.5% relative to comparable postings within the same occupation, and this estimate is little changed when controlling for nonmonetary job attributes making these jobs more attractive. Roughly half of this premium is explained by firm fixed effects, consistent with an important role for firm rents. An Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition shows that the higher skill complexity explains a further one tenth of the premium, leaving a residual return to green tasks of around 2%. The green wage premium is higher outside the manufacturing sector, and for low-carbon roles. |
| Keywords: | green wage premium; skill gaps; green tasks; LLM |
| JEL: | J24 J60 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138454 |
| By: | Humlum, Maria (Aarhus University); Nielsen, Helena (Aarhus University); Simonsen, Marianne (Aarhus University) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses Danish register-based matched student–teacher data to characterize public school teachers and their working conditions. We document gender segregation across subjects and grades, with female teachers dominating Danish instruction and male teachers more common in upper-grade math. Teachers select into subjects based on subject-specific academic skills, yet a notable share has weak prerequisite skills. Teachers often specialize in student age groups but teach multiple subjects. Those with stronger skills tend to work in schools with similarly skilled colleagues. These findings provide new insights relevant for interpreting education research and designing policies to improve teacher retention and wellbeing. |
| Keywords: | teachers, teacher working conditions, teacher skills, teacher health |
| JEL: | I20 I28 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18645 |
| By: | Afroza Alam; André Diegmann |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new causal evidence on how patent allowances affect firms and their employees based on quasi-random assignment of patent applications to examiners. Exploiting employer–employee records with newly linked German firm data and web-scraped patent documents, we show that patent-induced shocks reduce firm exit, improve productivity, and increase wages, with rent-sharing elasticities between 0.10 and 0.21. Wage gains are broadly observed across occupational tasks, with high heterogeneity: managers benefit disproportionately in publicly traded firms, whereas broader wage increases accrue to workers in non-traded firms. Our findings highlight the role of institutional features and firm organization in shaping how rents are shared. |
| Keywords: | innovation, firm performance, worker compensation, rent sharing |
| JEL: | O31 O34 J31 D22 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12666 |
| By: | Yasar, Serife |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how the introduction of a statutory minimum wage affects the gender wage gap within firms. I compare the residual gender wage gap in firms with and without minimum wage exposure before and after the reform using linked employer-employee data from Germany and employ a difference-in-differences approach in an event-study style with firm- and year-fixed effects. My results show that the introduction of the minimum wage led to a modest decline in the within-firm gender wage gap, with the clearest effects among incumbent workers and in the lower to middle part of the wage distribution. Effects differ across employment status, industries, and firm size. I find small wage changes in full-time jobs, a positive and significant post-reform effect for part-time workers, and no precise post-reform effects for marginal employment. These findings suggest that the effects of the minimum wage on the gender wage gap vary across worker groups and firm environments. A rich set of robustness checks, including alternative exposure thresholds and gender gap definitions, support my main findings. |
| Abstract: | Die vorliegende Publikation untersucht, wie sich die Einführung des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf den geschlechtsspezifischen Lohnunterschied innerhalb von Unternehmen auswirkt. Dafür wird die geschlechtsspezifische Lohnlücke in Unternehmen mit und ohne Mindestlohnbetroffenheit vor und nach der Reform verglichen. Datengrundlage sind administrative Lohndaten aus Deutschland. Methodisch wird ein Difference-in-Differences-Ansatz im Event-Study-Design mit Unternehmens- und Jahres-Fixeffekten angewendet. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Einführung des Mindestlohns zu einem moderaten Rückgang der innerbetrieblichen geschlechtsspezifischen Lohnlücke geführt hat, wobei die deutlichsten Effekte bei bestehenden Beschäftigten sowie im unteren bis mittleren Bereich der Lohnverteilung zu beobachten sind. Die Effekte unterscheiden sich nach Beschäftigungsstatus, Branchen und Unternehmensgröße. Es zeigen sich geringe Lohnveränderungen bei Vollzeitstellen, ein positiver und signifikanter Effekt nach der Reform für Teilzeitbeschäftigte sowie keine präzisen Effekte nach der Reform für geringfügig Beschäftigte. Diese Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass die Auswirkungen des Mindestlohns auf die geschlechtsspezifische Lohnlücke je nach Arbeitnehmergruppen und betrieblichen Rahmenbedingungen variieren. Eine umfangreiche Reihe von Robustheitsprüfungen, einschließlich alternativer Betroffenheit und Definitionen der Lohnlücke, stützt die Hauptergebnisse. |
| Keywords: | minimum wages, gender wage gap, within-firm wage inequality |
| JEL: | J23 J31 J38 J71 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:341091 |
| By: | Hassan Afrouzi; Andres Blanco; Andres Drenik; Erik Hurst |
| Abstract: | We study how an automating technology affects career dynamics, human capital, and welfare in an economy where workers acquire skill through the tasks they perform. In a continuous-time general equilibrium model, learning-by-doing is determined jointly with the share of tasks automated, the frontier of tasks managers maintain, and the worker-to-manager career transition. Economies with high learning capacity admit pairs of stationary equilibria strictly ranked by the aggregate learning rate. Cheaper technology has opposite effects across the two: in the high-learning equilibrium, it raises welfare through the learning channel itself; in the low-learning equilibrium, it tips the economy into a human-capital trap. The planner's first-best combines a tax on automation profits with a subsidy on frontier maintenance expenditures at a common rate. |
| Keywords: | human capital; learning-by-doing; automation; AI |
| JEL: | E23 E24 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–05–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:103253 |
| By: | Bartelsman, Eric J.; Dobbelaere, Sabien; Zona Mattioli, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a micro-founded framework linking price-cost and wage markups to intangible assets. Intangible assets, once created, are a source of firm rents. Owing to limits to enforceable ownership and the non-rival nature of knowledge, these rents can be both retained by the origin firm and transferred to a competitor through poaching of workers. Search and matching frictions affect labor mobility and result in bargaining over rents between the firm and the worker. This environment generates hold-up in intangible asset creation and motivates rent sharing. Under non-compete agreements, poached workers face start delays that weaken outside options. Using microdata from the Netherlands, we document higher price-cost and wage markups in more intangible-intensive firms and lower wages for workers with non-compete agreements, consistent with the model. |
| Keywords: | intangibles, non-compete agreements, price-cost markups, rent sharing, wage markups |
| JEL: | J41 L10 O30 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:341089 |
| By: | Ylenia Brilli (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Elena Cottini (Catholic University of the Sacred Heart); Paolo Ghinetti (University of Eastern Piedmont); Gloria Moroni (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice) |
| Abstract: | University systems in many countries expanded by establishing new institutions in areas previously lacking higher education. We study Italy's postwar university expansion, which opened the first faculties in provinces that had never hosted one. Exploiting variation in the timing of these openings across provinces and birth cohorts in an event-study design, we find that local access increased graduation rates by 3.2 percentage points on average across treated cohorts (approximately 26 percent relative to the pre-treatment mean), with a sharp discontinuity of 1.2 percentage points at the enrollment-age threshold. The effect is significant across all urbanization levels and increasing in more urbanized provinces, consistent with complementarities between university access and local labour market conditions. Women benefited disproportionately, though gender gaps in labour market outcomes narrowed by less than those in education. Spillover effects to neighbouring provinces exist but are of secondary magnitude, with the local effect approximately twice the size of the neighbour effect. At the province level, these first openings reduced educational disparities between provinces that gained a university and those that remained unserved. |
| Keywords: | Tertiary education, Higher education expansion, Gender gap, spatial inequality |
| JEL: | I23 J16 J21 J24 H55 R12 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2026:17 |
| By: | Prados de la Escosura, Leandro |
| Abstract: | Recent research confirms that per capita income in early modern Spain improved onlymarginally overall, while also revealing sustained growth through much of the sixteenth and eighteenth centuries, alongside a continued decline from the late sixteenth to the midseventeenth centuries. These phases shaped Spain's relative position within Western Europe and contributed to the Reversal of Fortune. This paper finds that labour productivity, proxied by output per working-age population, improved during the first three-quarters of the sixteenth century, then declined until the mid-seventeenth century, and that thesubsequent recovery never reached the levels of the 1570s. What caused these episodes of growth and decline: changes in resource endowments or in the efficiency of their use? Phases of labour productivity growth were often driven by factor intensity, but efficiency losses underpinned periods of stagnation or decline, which contradicts the stylised view that factor intensity is the main driver of labour productivity in a pre-industrial economy. Compared with Great Britain, Spain showed an inverse, divergent pattern, moving from similar levels to less than half of Britain's by 1800. Efficiency was the main driver of the widening gap. Ingenuity appears, therefore, to be the driving force behind the Reversal of Fortune. |
| Keywords: | Output per working-age population; Dual TFP; Efficiency; Factor intensity; Reversal of Fortune; Spain; Britain |
| JEL: | J24 E24 N13 O47 |
| Date: | 2026–05–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:50135 |
| By: | Takushi Kurozumi; Willem Van Zandweghe |
| Abstract: | Motivated by evidence documented in labor economics, we introduce firms' monopsonistic wage-setting in an otherwise standard DSGE model. Our model identifies shocks to the wage markdown as labor demand shocks—a feature absent from standard models. With both labor demand and supply shocks, our model empirically outperforms its standard counterpart model. Firms' monopsonistic wage-setting allows real unit labor cost to be decomposed into not only real marginal cost but also the wage markdown. This refined measure of real marginal cost enhances the Phillips curve's ability to describe inflation dynamics while obviating the need for price markup shocks. |
| Keywords: | DSGE model; Labor market monopsony; Wage markdown; Labor demand shock; Real marginal cost |
| JEL: | E24 E31 J23 J42 |
| Date: | 2026–05–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:103287 |
| By: | Arindrajit Dube |
| Abstract: | California’s AB 1228 raised the minimum wage for large fast-food chains to $20 per hour in April 2024—roughly 77 percent of the state’s median hourly wage, the highest wage floor for fast-food workers in the U.S. Using QCEW data through 2025Q3, I estimate that the policy raised fast-food wages by about 7 percent. A conventional difference-in-differences yields an employment own-wage elasticity (OWE) of −0.19; synthetic difference-in-differences, which reweights controls to match California’s pretreatment trajectory, shrinks the OWE to −0.04. Newly available QWI data through 2024Q4 yield estimates that are on average more positive. Across 32 QCEW and QWI specifications, the OWE ranges from −0.29 to +0.26, bracketing the median OWE of −0.02 I compute across 27 post-2010 state minimum-wage events despite AB 1228’s much larger bite. The QWI also reveals a sharp reduction in the separation rate, with own-wage elasticities of −1.7 to −4.2—several times the restaurant-sector benchmark in Dube et al. (2016) and consistent with a monopsonistic quit-reduction channel. Wage and separation-rate effects concentrate among large employers covered by AB 1228, with limited spillovers. The fall in separations also helps reconcile the somewhat more negative QCEW employment estimates. |
| JEL: | J0 J20 J80 J88 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35171 |
| By: | Biroli, Pietro (University of Bologna); Martin-Bassols, Nicolau (University of Bologna); Marees, Andries T. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); van Kippersluis, Hans (Tinbergen Institute; Erasmus University Rotterdam); A. Rietveld, Cornelius (Tinbergen Institute; Erasmus University Rotterdam); Arce, Pia (University of Zurich); Thom, Kevin (University of Iowa); von Hinke, Stephanie (University of Bristol); Vollen, Jeremy (Northwestern University); Galama, Titus (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; University of Southern California) |
| Abstract: | The start of a human's life can be characterized by two lotteries: that of your genes (nature) and the family you were born into (nurture). These set in motion a trajectory, from birth onward, in health and human capital. Leveraging three longitudinal social-science data sets, we systematically analyze the relationship between an individual's genotype, the socioeconomic status (SES) of the families they grew up in, and their realized traits in adulthood. We proxy an individual's genetic predisposition by polygenic indexes (PGIs) and family SES by a latent factor of parental education and father's (former) occupational status. We then investigate how PGIs, parental SES, and their interaction contribute to later-life outcomes across a range of forty-five socioeconomic, anthropometric, health, behavioral, and personality traits. We find strong genetic and socioeconomic associations with these phenotypes, but no evidence of sizable gene-environment interactions. |
| Keywords: | gene-by-environment interplay, genoeconomics, polygenic indices, social science genetics, ESSGN |
| JEL: | I14 I24 J24 D31 C38 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18607 |
| By: | Kurmann, André (Drexel University); Lalé, Etienne (York University, Canada); Martin, Julien (Université du Québec à Montréal, CEPR, and CIRANO) |
| Abstract: | We provide the first systematic evidence on the short-run labor market consequences of the 25% decline in Canadian visits to the United States in 2025. We combine smartphone foot-traffic data measuring Canadian visitor presence at the ZIP code x industry level with real-time establishment-level employment records. Exploiting the high heterogeneity in exposure to Canadian visits, we find that small establishments in the top 1% exposed local-industry markets experienced employment declines of about 6% compared to less exposed ones. Our estimates imply between 13, 900 and 42, 100 jobs lost, concentrated in a small number of localities. |
| Keywords: | tourism, smartphone data, employment, business dynamics |
| JEL: | F14 J21 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18626 |
| By: | Cauê Dobbin; Daniel Fernandez; Tom Zohar |
| Abstract: | A well-known empirical regularity is that high-productivity firms have lower worker separation rates, but it is unclear whether this pattern reflects quits or layoffs. Using matched employer-employee data from Brazil that distinguish the reason for each separation, we show that the productivity-separation gradient is driven primarily by layoffs rather than quits. We then propose and test a mechanism in which downward wage rigidity prevents firms from adjusting wages in response to adverse shocks, causing those shocks to translate into layoffs. High-productivity firms are less exposed because their larger markdowns provide a buffer between productivity and wages. Consistent with this mechanism, we find that firms with higher markdowns have lower layoff rates, and that markets with stronger wage rigidity exhibit both higher layoff rates and a steeper productivity-layoff gradient. These findings suggest that productivity differences across firms shape not only wages, but also workers' exposure to job loss. |
| JEL: | J31 J63 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35177 |
| By: | Selahattin Imrohoroglu; Zhixiu Yu |
| Abstract: | Employment rates for workers aged 55–64 increased by an average of 28.5 percentage points across sixteen countries between 2004 and 2019, with Austria, Italy, and the Netherlands experiencing increases larger than their entire 2004 employment rate. We examine what explains these dramatic gains and their substantial heterogeneity across countries and demographic groups. Using harmonized Health and Retirement Study data, we document three key empirical patterns. First, employment increases concentrated among women, healthier individuals, and more educated workers. Second, contrary to prior research, changes in weekly hours per worker are mixed rather than uniformly negative, with gains occurring primarily at the extensive margin. Third, employment growth accelerated during 2013–2019 compared to 2007–2013. While existing research examines longevity and pension reforms as separate channels, we show their interaction is quantitatively important. Longevity improvements amplify pension reform effects: when survival probabilities increase, actuarial adjustments for delayed claiming provide higher benefits collected over longer periods, strengthening work incentives. We formalize this mechanism in a lifecycle framework yielding testable predictions about margins of adjustment and demographic heterogeneity. Countries experiencing both pension reforms and substantial longevity gains show employment increases 15–20 percentage points larger than countries with reforms alone. This interaction helps explain why responses were exceptionally large in some countries, why growth accelerated after 2013, and why effects concentrate among healthier and more educated workers. Our findings suggest pension reform effectiveness depends critically on demographic context. Because effects concentrate at the extensive margin, policies raising retirement ages are more effective than hours flexibility policies. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnn:wpaper:26-006e |
| By: | Teufel, Julia (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, Microeconomics & Public Economics); Beeder, Monica |
| Abstract: | Temporary migrants power key industries in many countries, yet often face poor working conditions. Vulnerability to such conditions is increased by limited knowledge of workplace rights, language barriers, and, in some cases, lack of prior work experience. One common policy response is the use of information interventions aimed at increasing rights awareness and empowering migrants to seek better working conditions where choice is possible. Despite their widespread use, evidence on their effectiveness remains limited. We present results from a randomized controlled trial evaluating a workplace rights information intervention in a longitudinal study of temporary migrants in Australia. Using multilingual online surveys, we recruited a diverse sample of workers across sectors that were understudied to date. Consistent with previous research, workers with limited rights awareness, and little prior work experience experienced worse employment conditions. While the intervention increased participants’ perceived sense of control over workplace decisions, workplace rights knowledge increased in both treatment and control groups over time. Increased rights knowledge was associated with improved working conditions, particularly among workers with limited English proficiency and less prior work experience. However, structural constraints, including dependence on employers for visa extension requirements, may limit the extent to which information alone can improve outcomes. These findings suggest that information interventions alone may be insufficient without complementary measures addressing institutional vulnerability. |
| Keywords: | temporary migration, working conditions, exploitation, working rights knowledge |
| JEL: | C93 D83 J28 J47 J83 |
| Date: | 2026–05–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umagsb:2026003 |
| By: | George Kudrna; Chung Tran |
| Abstract: | This paper studies whether shifting retirement financing from public to mandatory private pensions can deliver Pareto improvements across generations when the implicit return on public pensions is persistently below the market return on capital. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium overlapping-generations model with heterogeneous households facing idiosyncratic earnings risk, endogenous labor supply and retirement, and a mixed public–private pension system. Calibrated to Australia -- where strict means testing creates strong complementarity between public and private pensions -- the model shows that higher private contributions raise aggregate wealth and future welfare but impose transitional welfare costs on current workers. The optimal contribution rate is around 14 percent of gross wages, yielding efficiency gains of 0.23 percent of lifetime consumption through reduced public pension eligibility and lower distortionary taxation. When combined with compensating transfers, the reform delivers a Pareto improvement across generations. In contrast, in systems with weaker or no means testing -- such as pension designs comparable to those in the Netherlands and the United States -- these gains diminish or turn negative, indicating that the linkage between private wealth and public pension entitlements is central to the scope for Pareto-improving reform. |
| Keywords: | social security, private pension, income taxation, labor supply, efficiency, life-cycle, stochastic OLG model |
| JEL: | H55 J26 H24 H21 D15 C68 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2026-34 |
| By: | Aipime, Michelle |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the dynamic synergy between human capital, institutional quality and trade openness, and the impact of this synergy on export complexity across a global panel of 143 countries from 1998 to 2024. Utilising a two-step GMM estimator, the research identifies a substitution effect between labour quality and governance. Initial level estimations revealed an explosive path-dependency in trade structures (autoregressive coefficient of 1.14), necessitating a pivot to a firstdifference estimation. The preferred model indicates that while human capital and institutions independently drive complexity growth, their interaction is negative and significant, suggesting that education initially acts a a bypass mechanism for industrial sophistication in weak-institution economies. Furthermore, while long-term debt levels may signal structural stagnation, the level of capital access is found to be a significant catalyst for complexity expansion. These findings offer a new framework for improving economic complexity efficiently in developing economies. |
| Keywords: | Economic Complexity; Human Capital; Institutional Quality; HCT Nexus; Structural Transformation; International Trade; Trade Openness |
| JEL: | F14 I25 I26 J24 O11 O14 |
| Date: | 2026–04–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128954 |
| By: | Melanie Jones; Ezgi Kaya; Suzanna Nesom |
| Abstract: | Using an extensive expansion of pre-school childcare in Wales in 2019 this paper explores whether access to free childcare increases parental employment. Our analysis is based on two alternative identification strategies applied to rich household data from the Annual Population Survey. First, we use a regression discontinuity design to exploit eligibility cutoffs based on the child’s date of birth. Second, we apply a staggered difference-in-differences approach leveraging the phased spatial rollout of the policy during its trial period. We find no evidence of an impact of free pre-school childcare on parental employment using either approach. Moreover, this is true for mothers, parents with relatively low education and for parents whose youngest child is eligible, where more pronounced effects might be anticipated. Our evidence therefore questions the effectiveness of the policy in increasing parental employment. |
| Keywords: | parental employment, childcare policy, regression discontinuity design, staggered difference-in-differences. |
| JEL: | J13 J21 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:yorken:26/03 |
| By: | Hanna Brosch; Elisabeth Grewenig; Philipp Lergetporer; Katharina Werner; Helen Zeidler |
| Abstract: | Gender norms about parental labor supply are central to explaining persistent gender inequalities in the labor market, yet their causal determinants remain poorly understood. We examine whether people’s gender attitudes are driven by mothers’ and fathers’ earnings, which may shape views about the efficient allocation of paid work and care. In a large-scale representative vignette experiment in Germany (N > 10, 000), we randomly vary pre-childbirth earnings and measure whether respondents recommend that the mother (father) stay home with the child while the father (mother) works full-time. Without specifying earnings, 90% recommend that the mother stay home. This share remains high when we specify that the mother earns less (93%). When she earns more, the share drops sharply to 47%, yet nearly half of respondents still recommend that the mother stay home. This asymmetric response rejects a purely income-based explanation of gender norms. Thus, economic circumstances shape gender attitudes, but deeply rooted norms persist even when they conflict with financial incentives. |
| Keywords: | gender norms, labor supply, gender, survey experiment |
| JEL: | C90 D13 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12674 |
| By: | Abboud, Ali (American University of Beirut); Bazzi, Samuel (University of California San Diego); Canaan, Serena (Simon Fraser University); Deeb, Antoine (World Bank); Mouganie, Pierre (Simon Fraser University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how authority figures in higher education shape gender norms over the long run. We exploit the random assignment of first-year students to faculty advisors at an elite university in the Middle East, combining administrative records with an alumni survey measuring gender attitudes up to 24 years later. Women assigned to female advisors adopt more egalitarian views about politics and work, while men become more conservative. Effects are strongest among religious students and in male-dominated STEM fields, where female authority is especially counter-stereotypical, and may persist through reinforcement: women assigned to female advisors later sort toward female instructors and more gender-themed courses. Our results are not driven by generic exposure to successful women—randomized exposure to high-achieving female peers has little effect, while the largest impacts come from senior and high-value-added female advisors. A simple framework combining belief updating and identity-based status threat explains these patterns. Our findings reveal a progress paradox whereby gains in female representation in elite authority expand opportunities for women while intensifying backlash among men, deepening gender polarization. |
| Keywords: | gender norms, higher education, polarization, role models, backlash, religion |
| JEL: | I23 J16 J24 P00 Z12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18611 |
| By: | Pierre Boutros (Université Côte d’Azur, CNRS, GREDEG (UMR 7321), France); Michele Pezzoni (Université Côte d’Azur, CNRS, GREDEG (UMR 7321), France and Observatoire des Sciences et Techniques, HCERES, France); Lionel Nesta (Université Côte d’Azur, CNRS, GREDEG (UMR 7321), France, OFCE, Sciences Po, France, and SKEMA Business School, France); Sonia Paty (Université Lumière Lyon 2, CNRS, Université Jean Monnet Saint-Etienne, emlyon business school, GATE (UMR 5824), Lyon, France) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the factors predicting the destination choice of mobile researchers. To do so, we use a unique dataset on researchers’ mobility between labs within the largest French public research organization from 2012 to 2022. We find that relational links, namely citation and co-authorship links between mobile researchers and destination lab members, are among the strongest predictors of researchers’ destination choices. Specifically, a citation link prior to mobility between a researcher and a lab is associated with a 3.7 percentage-point higher probability that the researcher chooses that lab as a destination, while a co-authorship link is associated with a 9.8 percentage-point higher probability. We argue that citation and co-authorship links are highly relevant because they serve as information channels to help address substantial information asymmetry between researchers and potential destination labs before mobility. We further find that citation links are better predictors of destination choice when the cognitive distance between the researcher and the lab is high, whereas co-authorship plays a stronger role when the cognitive distance is low. Finally, we find that other lab characteristics, such as the size, productivity, and funding availability, are less relevant to the destination choice. |
| Keywords: | Mobile researchers; Internal labor markets; Information asymmetry; Destination choice |
| JEL: | D83 J61 J24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:2605 |
| By: | Kassaballi, Zouhier |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the effectiveness of a low-cost intervention combining Mobile-Assisted Language Learning (MALL) with behavioral economics insights, specifically motivational framing and near-peer role models. Using a randomized controlled trial among 317 migrants and refugees in German integration courses across six cities, I examine whether such an intervention can shift learning behavior and improve German language proficiency. The intervention raised adoption of the official state-recommended app "Ankommen" from 5% to 46% and doubled daily mobile learning time from 15 to 30 minutes. Intention-to-treat estimates show treatment increased self-reported German proficiency by 0.3 standard deviations, while Complier Average Causal Effect estimates indicate actual MALL adoption improved language skills by 0.76 to 0.83 standard deviations. These findings demonstrate that a brief, replicable encouragement intervention can meaningfully complement formal language instruction at negligible cost, offering a scalable policy tool for integration programs across Europe. |
| Keywords: | Mobile-Assisted Language Learning, Migration, Integration, Language Acquisition, Randomized Controlled Trial |
| JEL: | C93 I29 J15 J24 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–05–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129066 |
| By: | Megalokonomou, Rigissa (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how gender representation affects collective decision-making in expert committees. I exploit quasi-random assignment of judges to panels in the Greek Supreme Court using newly digitized data on 3, 700 criminal appeals. I find that panels with more female judges are more likely to reject appeals and less likely to delegate cases. Effects are nonlinear and emerge primarily once at least three of five judges are female; below this level, representation has no detectable effect. The mechanism appears to operate at the panel rather than the individual level - panels with a higher share of female judges take significantly longer to decide, especially in complex cases and in familiar panel compositions, consistent with more thorough deliberation rather than coordination costs. These findings suggest that diversity policies targeting modest increases in female representation will have limited impact unless they shift the deliberative composition of the group itself. |
| Keywords: | panel decisions, gender composition, quasi-random assignment, Supreme Court |
| JEL: | J16 D03 D71 J78 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18639 |
| By: | Louise Devos; François Rycx; Thomas Senterre; Mélanie Volral |
| Abstract: | Using matched employer–employee data on more than 62, 000 master’s graduates, this paper examines how gender differences in wage returns to fields of study vary by migration background and how educational specialisation contributes to the gender wage gap. We estimate wage regressions and apply a decomposition approach to separate sorting across fields from differences in pay within fields. Returns vary widely, with law, economics and management, and science yielding the highest returns, and women earning less than men within all fields, especially in high-paying ones. First-generation immigrants from developing countries obtain the lowest returns regardless of field of study, while second-generation immigrants approach but do not fully match natives. Fields of study explain a substantial share of gender wage inequality among natives and second-generation immigrants, whereas among first-generation immigrants broader wage disadvantages dominate. Results further vary with the number of parents originating from developing countries and with age at arrival. |
| Keywords: | gender wage gap; first- and second-generation immigrants; field of study; employer-employee data |
| JEL: | I24 I26 J16 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/406634 |
| By: | Javier Olivera (Departamento de Economía de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú); Yadiraah Iparraguirre (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile) |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of Peru’s social pension program, Pension 65, on family transfers of money and time. The program provides pensions to individuals aged 65 and over who are officially classified as extremely poor and who do not receive other pensions. We use survey data matched to the program’s administrative registers and exploit the discontinuity around the welfare index that determines eligibility to estimate the intention-to-treat effects of the program on family transfers. We find that Pension 65 reduces monetary family transfers by 70% (the effect is 97% for men). There is a substantial increase in childcare hours among men, from 1 to 7 hours per week. This result is consistent with an increase in the number of young children in the household and with a reduction in time spent on leisure activities among men. Palabras claves: Pensiones sociales, transferencias familiares, uso del tiempo, pobreza JEL Classification-JE: H55, I38, J14, J26 |
| Keywords: | Social pensions, family transfers, time use, poverty, ageing |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00553 |