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on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages |
| By: | Sona Badalyan |
| Abstract: | I study how delayed retirements reshape firms’ internal labor markets, leveraging a German reform that raised women’s early retirement age by at least three years. The reform increased retention of older women and reduced both internal promotions and external hiring of younger coworkers, with the greatest losses among middle-aged workers who were near to older workers on the career ladder. Spillovers are structured: promotion crowd-outs arise in thick internal labor markets with intense competition, while hiring declines are largest in thin external markets with high turnover costs. Crowd-out effects concentrate within jobcells, whereas coworkers in different jobcells can benefit when retained older workers possess specific human capital. Taken together, the evidence supports slot-constraint theories—augmented by firm-specific human-capital mechanisms |
| Keywords: | aging, internal labor markets, human capital, worker substitutability |
| JEL: | H55 J21 J23 J24 J26 J31 J63 M51 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp810 |
| By: | Natalia Emanuel; Emma Harrington |
| Abstract: | What are the returns to firms of paying more? We study a Fortune 500 firm’s voluntary firm-wide $15/hour minimum wage, which affected some warehouses more than others. Using a continuous difference-in-differences design, we find that a $1/hour pay increase (5.5 percent) halves worker departures, reduces absenteeism by 18.6 percent, and increases productivity (boxes moved per hour) by 5.7 percent. These productivity gains fully defrayed increased labor costs, offsetting the firm’s incentive to mark down wages. We develop a simple model that connects efficiency-wage incentives and monopsony power, showing how these forces can counterbalance each other to keep wages closer to workers’ marginal revenues. |
| Keywords: | voluntary firm minimum wage; Efficiency wages; monopsony; labor market frictions |
| JEL: | M52 J31 J42 |
| Date: | 2026–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:102436 |
| By: | Ajay K. Agrawal; John McHale; Alexander Oettl |
| Abstract: | The task-based approach has become the dominant framework for studying the labor-market effects of artificial intelligence (AI), typically emphasizing the replacement of human workers by machines. Motivated by growing empirical evidence that contemporary AI is more often used as a tool that augments workers, this paper develops two related task-based models in which AI enhances worker productivity without automating tasks. Abstracting from capital, we develop a pair of related task-based models that examine how technological progress in AI that provides new tools to augment workers affects aggregate productivity and wage inequality. Both models emphasize the role of human capital in intermediating the effects of AI-related technological shocks. In the first model, AI use requires specialized expertise, and technological progress expands the set of tasks for which such expertise is effective. We show that a larger supply of AI expertise amplifies the productivity gains from improvements in AI technology while attenuating its adverse effects on wage inequality. The second model focuses on non-AI skills, allowing AI tools to alter the set of tasks that workers can perform given their skills. In equilibrium, workers allocate across tasks in response to wages, generating an endogenous distribution of skills across the task space. A central result is that aggregate productivity and wage inequality depend on different global properties of this equilibrium distribution: productivity is particularly sensitive to thinly staffed tasks that create bottlenecks, while wage inequality is driven by the concentration of workers in a narrow set of tasks. As a result, improvements in AI tools can induce non-monotonic co-movement between productivity and inequality. By linking these mechanisms to multidimensional human capital---including AI expertise and higher-order non-AI skills---the paper highlights the role of education and training policies in shaping the economic consequences of AI-driven technological change. |
| JEL: | J24 O33 O41 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34781 |
| By: | Sari Pekkala Kerr; William R. Kerr; Louis Maiden |
| Abstract: | We characterize the careers of minimum wage workers by merging SIPP panels covering 1992-2016 into the LEHD. A long-run analysis shows strong earnings growth for these workers in subsequent decades, becoming indistinguishable from peers earning modestly more initially. Most of this growth is due to the steep earnings trajectories of young workers. Older workers earning minimum wages show a modest dip in earnings at that moment compared to earlier and later periods. Increases in state minimum wages do not significantly alter the future careers of workers who are on the minimum wage when the increases occur. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wage, career trajectories, mobility, poverty |
| JEL: | J62 D31 E24 J21 J31 J38 J78 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-07 |
| By: | Na'ama Shenhav; Danielle H. Sandler |
| Abstract: | We study the causal effect of women's education on their wages, non-wage job amenities, and spillovers to children. Using a regression discontinuity at the school entry birthdate cutoff, we find that women born just before the cutoff are more likely to complete some college, and experience multi-dimensional career gains that grow over the life cycle: greater employment and earnings, as well as more professional and higher-status jobs, more socially meaningful work, and better working conditions. Children’s early-life health and prenatal inputs improve in tandem with career improvements, consistent with professional advances spurring—not hindering—infant investments. Career gains are concentrated in jobs that require exactly some college, the same schooling margin shifted by the cutoff, which indicates that increased post-secondary education is the primary channel for these effects. Together, the results show that women's college attendance generates large career returns—from both wages and amenities—that strengthen over time and produce meaningful benefits for children. |
| Keywords: | education, wages, job amenities, inter-generational transfers |
| JEL: | I26 J24 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-09 |
| By: | Benner, Niklas; Heuer, Felix; Kamb, Rebecca; Storm, Eduard |
| Abstract: | How do economic crises reshape firms' skill demand through changes in the organization of work? Using the COVID-19 pandemic as a shock to workplace practices, this paper examines whether short-term disruptions prompt lasting shifts in job requirements. We draw on 11 million German online job vacancies from 2017-2024 and implement an event-study design that exploits pre-pandemic variation in workfrom-home feasibility across occupations. This approach identifies firms' differential exposure to remote-work constraints based on the occupational mix of their job postings. We find that crisis-induced shifts in skill demand were mainly short-lived, but one adjustment persisted: a lasting rise in interactive requirements, reflecting the emergence of hybrid collaboration. This form of organizational change contrasts with the technology-driven automation emphasized in prior crises and was shaped mainly by structural factors - digital infrastructure, firm size, and sectoral exposure - rather than by cyclical variation. Our results show that temporary shocks can trigger selective and enduring shifts in firms' skill demand through evolving workplace organization. |
| Abstract: | Wie verändern wirtschaftliche Krisen die Qualifikationsnachfrage von Unternehmen durch Veränderungen in der Arbeitsorganisation? Unter Nutzung der COVID-19-Pandemie als einschneidendes Ereignis für betriebliche Praktiken untersucht diese Studie, ob kurzfristige Störungen dauerhafte Verschiebungen der Arbeitsplatzanforderungen auslösen. Wir untersuchen dies auf der Basis von 11 Millionen Online-Stellenanzeigen aus den Jahren 2017-2024 und implementieren ein Event-Study-Design, das die vorpandemische Variation der Homeoffice-Fähigkeit über Berufe hinweg ausnutzt. Dieser Ansatz identifiziert die unterschiedliche Betroffenheit von Unternehmen durch Einschränkungen des mobilen Arbeitens auf Grundlage der beruflichen Zusammensetzung ihrer Stellenanzeigen. Wir finden, dass krisenbedingte Verschiebungen der Qualifikationsnachfrage überwiegend kurzlebig waren, jedoch eine Anpassung anhielt: ein dauerhafter Anstieg interaktiver Anforderungen, der das Entstehen hybrider Zusammenarbeit widerspiegelt. Diese Form organisatorischen Wandels steht im Gegensatz zu der in früheren Krisen betonten technologiegetriebenen Automatisierung und wurde hauptsächlich durch strukturelle Faktoren - digitale Infrastruktur, Unternehmensgröße und sektorale Exposition - und nicht durch zyklische Variation geprägt. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass temporäre Schocks selektive und dauerhafte Verschiebungen der Qualifikationsnachfrage von Unternehmen über eine sich wandelnde Arbeitsorganisation auslösen können. |
| Keywords: | Online Job Ads, Skill Demand, Work-from-Home Feasibility, COVID-19, Task Reallocation, Event Study |
| JEL: | J23 J24 J63 O33 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:335905 |
| By: | Zimmerman, Karin (Department of Economics, Umeå University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the short-run labor market effects of a major industrial investment, using the announcement of a large battery factory in northern Sweden as a case study. Applying the synthetic control method (SCM) with three counterfactuals and disaggregating results by sector and gender, the analysis uncovers uneven adjustments beneath stable aggregate employment. Public sector jobs falls markedly – driven by a 5.6% annual decline among women – while manufacturing and construction show only minor changes. The effect on income is modest, with small gains for men in manufacturing. The findings show that such investments can trigger short-term labor reallocation rather than immediate job creation, particularly in regions with tight labor markets and demographic stagnation. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Investments; Local Labor Market; Synthetic Control Method; Gender Disparities; Sectoral Employment Shifts |
| JEL: | J21 J24 J31 O18 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–02–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:umnees:1044 |
| By: | Yoshimichi Murakami (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | Although upstream positions in GVCs are expected to expand unskilled-intensive activities and reduce wage inequality in developing countries, empirical studies based on cross-country analysis have largely failed to provide evidence supporting the theoretical prediction. Employing exogenous industry-level variations and combining industry-level GVC indicators with plant-level detailed panel data, this study empirically analyzes whether upstream positions in GVCs are negatively associated with skilled labor wage share in Chile from 1995 to 2006. The results revealed that upstream positions in GVC were negatively associated with skilled labor wage share, indicating that upstream activities are related to unskilled- intensive tasks, as expected. Although the upstream positions were positively associated with skilled labor wage share in highly technological-intensive plants, the number of such plants was very limited. The findings were robust to the exclusion of affiliates with changing their industry affiliations and control for the persistent effect of the dependent variable and endogeneity of plant-level variables. Additionally, we found that the negative effects of the upstream positions in GVCs are primarily derived from plants operating in industries that were initially located in downstream position and shifted towards upstream position. |
| Keywords: | Global value chains; Upstream positions; Wage inequality; Chile |
| JEL: | D24 F14 F16 F66 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2026-04 |
| By: | Tanner S. Eastmond; Michael Ricks; Julian Betts; Nathan Mather |
| Abstract: | We study how teacher "value added" should inform optimal teacher-assignment policy. Our welfare-theoretic framework illustrates (1) how theoretically optimal assignments leverage variation in teachers' impacts both across student types and across different outcomes, and (2) how empirically optimal assignments trade off improved targeting from estimating richer student heterogeneity against increasing misallocation risk. In practice, optimal assignments use limited student types (only lagged achievement) and multiple outcomes (not just math). Even after correcting for policy overfitting, assignments raise average present-value earnings by $2, 800 and increase lower-achieving students' earnings by 70-156% more than benchmark value-added policies that assume that teacher effects are homogeneous across students, that allow for heterogeneous effects across students but for a single subject, or teacher deselection. |
| JEL: | H42 I20 I28 I3 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34768 |
| By: | Mats Ekman; Niklas Jakobsson; Andreas Kotsadam |
| Abstract: | We conduct a pre-registered randomized controlled trial to test for income targeting in labor supply decisions among sellers of a Swedish street paper. These workers face liquidity constraints, high income volatility, and discretion over hours. Treated individuals received a 25 percent bonus per copy sold for the duration of an issue, simulating an increase in earnings potential. Treated sellers sold more papers, worked longer hours, and took fewer days off. These findings contrast with studies on intertemporal labor supply that find small substitution effects. Notably, when we apply strategies similar to observational studies, we recover patterns consistent with income targeting. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.11992 |
| By: | Sean Bassler; Kevin Rinz; David Wasser; Abigail Wozniak |
| Abstract: | Over the last decade, research on labor market adjustment following local demand shocks has expanded to explore a wide variety of measured shocks. However, the worker adjustments observed in response to these shocks are not always consistent across studies. We create a harmonized set of annual commuting-zone-level shocks following the major approaches in the literature to investigate these differences. As one might expect, shocks of different types exhibit different geographic and temporal patterns and are generally weakly correlated with each other. We find they also generate different employment and migration responses, with trade-related shocks showing little response on either margin, while more general Bartik-style shocks are associated with economically meaningful changes in both employment and migration. |
| Keywords: | labor demand shocks; employment; migration |
| JEL: | J23 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:102404 |
| By: | Listo, Ariel; Muñoz, Ercio; Sansone, Dario |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how attitudes among supervisors, co-workers, and customers contribute to discrimination against sexual minorities in the workplace. A large, nationally representative sample in Chile was recruited in collaboration with a local firm. The survey employs a series of double list experiments designed to measure attitudes on sensitive issues while reducing social desirability bias, followed by direct questions on attitudes toward sexual minorities. Findings reveal a discrepancy between reported and actual comfort levels with gay individuals in the labor market. Respondents underreported their discomfort by 15 to 23 percentage points, with the largest bias and lowest comfort levels observed when asked about supervising a gay employee. Additionally, respondents consistently underestimated broader societal support for gay employees and co-workers. These differences are reflected in real-stakes donation behavior: respondents who chose not to donate any amount from a lottery to a local LGBTQ-related NGO also reported lower comfort levels and exhibited greater misreporting. |
| Keywords: | LGBTQ+;discrimination |
| JEL: | C93 D91 J15 J71 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14488 |
| By: | Bredtmann, Julia; Otten, Sebastian; Rammert, Timo |
| Abstract: | We examine how occupational licensing shapes entrepreneurship in Germany's crafts sector. We exploit two sequential reforms that shifted entry barriers across occupations: a 2004 deregulation that relaxed licensing requirements and a 2020 partial re-regulation that reinstated them for a subset of crafts. Using administrative universe data at the occupation-year level and event-study difference-in-differences designs, we find that the 2004 deregulation led to a large and persistent increase in firm entry, a lagged rise in firm exits, and an expansion in the stock of firms. At the same time, completed master examinations declined markedly. The 2020 re-regulation reverses these patterns: master examinations increase, while firm entry, firm exit, and the stock of firms fall relative to occupations that remained deregulated. Overall, stricter entry requirements raise investment in formal credentials, yet reduce entrepreneurial turnover and market dynamism. |
| Abstract: | Wir untersuchen, wie sich die berufliche Zulassung auf das Unternehmertum im deutschen Handwerkssektor auswirkt. Wir nutzen zwei aufeinanderfolgende Reformen, die die Zugangsbarrieren für verschiedene Berufe verändert haben: eine Deregulierung im Jahr 2004, durch die die Zulassungsvoraussetzungen gelockert wurden, und eine teilweise Re-Regulierung im Jahr 2020, durch die diese für einen Teilbereich des Handwerks wieder eingeführt wurden. Anhand von administrativen Daten auf Berufs- und Jahresebene und mithilfe von Event-Study-Differenz-in-Differenzen-Modellen zeigen unsee Ergebnisse, dass die Deregulierung von 2004 zu einem starken und anhaltenden Anstieg der Unternehmensgründungen, einem verzögerten Anstieg der Unternehmensschließungen und einem Ansteig des Unternehmensbestands geführt hat. Gleichzeitig ging die Zahl der abgeschlossenen Meisterprüfungen deutlich zurück. Die Re-Regulierung von 2020 kehrte diese Muster um: Die Meisterprüfungen nehmen zu, während die Zahl der Unternehmensgründungen, Unternehmensschließungen und der Unternehmensbestand im Vergleich zu den weiterhin deregulierten Berufen zurückgeht. Insgesamt führen strengere Zugangsvoraussetzungen zu höheren Investitionen in formale Qualifikationen, verringern jedoch die Unternehmensfluktuation und die Marktdynamik. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, business dynamism, firm entry and exit, regulatory barriers, occupational licensing |
| JEL: | J24 J44 L26 L51 M13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:335898 |
| By: | Consolo, Agostino; Foroni, Claudia; Hjelm, Linnéa |
| Abstract: | Unlike past high-inflation episodes, the euro area labour market remained surprisingly resilient during the inflation surge of the early 2020s. This paper investigates the drivers of this resilience by combining long-span euro area macroeconomic data (1970–2025) with a structural VAR analysis that disentangles the roles of aggregate demand and supply, monetary policy, and factor-substitution shocks. Our findings show that, in contrast to the 1970s and 1980s, the decline in real wages has supported labour demand and, more broadly, the labour market, thereby helping to explain the decoupling between output and employment. We also find that monetary policy shocks have had a stronger impact on output than on employment, further amplifying the pro-cyclicality of labour productivity. JEL Classification: E24, E32, C32 |
| Keywords: | Bayesian VAR, labour markets, monetary policy, real wages |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263180 |
| By: | Antonin Bergeaud; Ruveyda Nur Gozen; John Van Reenen |
| Abstract: | We introduce a methodology to measure cross-country trends in innovation capability - “technological trajectories” and implement this on a new rich dataset covering patents between 1836 and 2016 across multiple countries. Intuitively, trajectories are revealed by a country’s sustained increases in patenting across multiple patent offices. We first describe the data patterns, showing the relative decline of the UK, and the rise first of the US and Germany, and then later of Japan and China. We then econometrically estimate trajectories on (i) the post-1902 period for France, Germany, Japan, the UK and US, and (ii) the post-1960 period for a wider sample of 40 countries. Our trajectories are strongly positively correlated with Total Factor Productivity growth, and also (but less strongly) associated with the growth of labour productivity and capital intensity. We show that future trajectories are predicted by a country’s initial levels of R&D, education and defence spending, classic drivers of innovation in modern growth theory. |
| JEL: | O31 O33 O34 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34760 |
| By: | David G. Blanchflower; Alex Bryson |
| Abstract: | We examine how workers’ and non-workers’ wellbeing varies by age across 171 countries in eight international surveys. In 103 countries (60%) we find evidence that workers’ wellbeing rises with age and workers' illbeing falls with age. This relationship appears to have strengthened over time in some countries. Patterns are different among non-workers and are sensitive to survey mode. Where surveys are conducted using Computer-Assisted Web-based Interviews (CAWI) non-workers’ wellbeing is U-shaped, but this is less clear-cut when the data are collected with Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI). The change in the age profile of workers’ wellbeing may reflect changes in selection into (out of) employment by age, changes in job quality, or changes in young workers’ orientation to similar jobs over time. But changes in smartphone usage – often the focus of debate regarding declining young peoples’ wellbeing – are unlikely to be the main culprit unless there are sizeable differences in smartphone usage across young workers and non-workers, which appears unlikely. |
| JEL: | I31 J28 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34786 |
| By: | Krumme, Anna; Westphal, Matthias |
| Abstract: | We estimate monetary wage returns to academic-track education, Germany's elite secondary school type granting university entrance. Because academic-track attendance and subsequent university education are institutionally linked, we disentangle their contributions using a causal mediation analysis. Leveraging quasi-experimental variation from the educational expansion - independent openings of schools and universities - we identify (i) the direct effect of academic-track education holding university attendance constant and (ii) the indirect effect operating through university education. We find total monetary returns of 118%, with about 60 percentage points attributable to the indirect effect of additional university education with prior academic-track schooling, and the remaining 40 points to academic-track education alone. |
| Abstract: | Diese Studie untersucht monetäre Bildungsrenditen des Abiturs sowie deren Zusammenspiel mit einem anschließenden Universitätsabschluss für Männer in Westdeutschland. Auf Grundlage von Daten des Nationalen Bildungspanels (NEPS) und selbst erhobenen Informationen zu Schul- und Universitätsgründungen während der Bildungsexpansion wird ein kausaler Mediationsansatz angewendet. Dadurch lassen sich sowohl Endogenität in der Wahl des Schulzweigs und beim Hochschulzugang als auch unbeobachtete Heterogenität der Bildungseffekte gleichzeitig berücksichtigen. Mit diesem Papier schließen wir eine Lücke zwischen bisher getrennten Befunden zu unterschiedlichen Bildungsniveaus und liefern neue kausale Evidenz für das Zusammenspiel von Sekundar- und Tertiärbildung im deutschen Bildungssystem. Im Durchschnitt verzeichnen sogenannte Complier - also Personen, deren Bildungsweg durch den Zugang zu einem Gymnasium beeinflusst wurde - Einkommenszuwächse von rund 118 %. Der Erwerb des Abiturs erhöht dabei die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Universitätsabschlusses um 37 Prozentpunkte. Der indirekte Effekt über das Studium erklärt etwa 60 Prozentpunkte der Gesamtrendite und ist auf dem 5 %-Niveau statistisch signifikant. Der direkte Effekt des Abiturs ohne Universitätsabschluss macht die verbleibenden 40 Prozentpunkte aus, ist weniger präzise geschätzt, bleibt aber ökonomisch bedeutsam. Insgesamt verdeutlicht die Studie damit, dass das Abitur nicht nur eigenständig zur Einkommensentwicklung beiträgt, sondern vor allem in Verbindung mit zusätzlicher tertiärer Bildung auf das spätere Einkommen wirkt. |
| Keywords: | Returns to education, IV estimation, causal mediation analysis |
| JEL: | I26 C26 J24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:335907 |
| By: | Ryan Stevens |
| Abstract: | Generative AI has the potential to transform how firms produce output. Yet, credible evidence on how AI is actually substituting for human labor remains limited. In this paper, we study firm-level substitution between contracted online labor and generative AI using payments data from a large U.S. expense management platform. We track quarterly spending from Q3 2021 to Q3 2025 on online labor marketplaces (such as Upwork and Fiverr) and leading AI model providers. To identify causal effects, we exploit the October 2022 release of ChatGPT as a common adoption shock and estimate a difference-in-differences model. We provide a novel measure of exposure based on the share of spending at online labor marketplaces prior to the shock. Firms with greater exposure to online labor adopt AI earlier and more intensively following the shock, while simultaneously reducing spending on contracted labor. By Q3 2025, firms in the highest exposure quartile increase their share of spending on AI model providers by 0.8 percentage points relative to the lowest exposure quartile, alongside significant declines in labor marketplace spending. Combining these responses yields a direct estimate of substitution: among the most exposed firms, a \$1 decline in online labor spending is associated with approximately \$0.03 of additional AI spending, implying order-of-magnitude cost savings from replacing outsourced tasks with AI services. These effects are heterogeneous across firms and emerge gradually over time. Taken together, our results provide the first direct, micro-level evidence that generative AI is being used as a partial substitute for human labor in production. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.00139 |
| By: | Alexander Mihailov; Giovanni Razzu; Zhe Wang |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the gendered effects of monetary policy shocks on key labour market outcomes in the Euro Area spanned by the 11 original member states from 2000 to 2016. Using a quarterly panel dataset and an identification strategy based on high-frequency financial surprises, we isolate exogenous monetary policy shocks from central bank information effects and trace their transmission across labour market outcomes for men and women. We provide new evidence on the distributional consequences of the common monetary policy shocks originating at the European Central Bank. A contractionary shock significantly increases unemployment for both genders, with systematically larger effects for men. At the same time, women exhibit a stronger rise in labour force participation, consistent with household labour supply adjustments. Gender differences in unemployment and participation are primarily driven by individuals aged 25–55 and are most pronounced among those with basic and intermediate education. Finally, labour market institutions shape the magnitude of these effects, either mitigating or amplifying gender disparities. |
| Keywords: | gender gaps, labour market outcomes, monetary policy shocks, labour market institutions, Euro Area |
| JEL: | E24 E32 E52 F45 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–02–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2026-01 |
| By: | Richard V. Burkhauser; Kevin Corinth |
| Abstract: | We compare trends in absolute poverty before (1939–1963) and after (1963–2023) the War on Poverty was declared. Our primary methodological contribution is to create a post-tax post-transfer income measure using the 1940, 1950 and 1960 Decennial Censuses through imputations of taxes and transfers as well as certain forms of market income including perquisites (Collins and Wanamaker 2022), consistent with the full income measures developed by Burkhauser et al. (2024) for subsequent years. From 1939–1963, poverty fell by 29 percentage points, with even larger declines for Black people and all children. While absolute poverty continued to fall following the War on Poverty’s declaration, the pace was no faster, even when evaluating the trends relative to a consistent initial poverty rate. Furthermore, the pre-1964 decline in poverty among working age adults and children was achieved almost completely through increases in market income, during which time only 2–3 percent of working age adults were dependent on the government for at least half of their income, compared to dependency rates of 7–15 percent from 1972–2023. In contrast to progress on absolute poverty, reductions in relative poverty were more modest from 1939–1963 and even less so since then. |
| JEL: | D31 H24 I32 J3 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34759 |
| By: | Coskun, Sena (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Dalgic, Husnu (Universität Mannheim); Özdemir, Yasemin (Universität Bayreuth) |
| Abstract: | "We document that women strategically sort into “family-friendly” sectors characterized by lower returns to experience but lower per-child penalties before the birth of their first child. This anticipatory sorting represents an ex-ante cost of motherhood that is entirely missed by conventional child penalty measures. We build a heterogeneous agent model of career choice and fertility to quantify this “sorting penalty.” Our central finding is that while the direct income loss from career sorting is small, this result reveals the high effectiveness of the primary tools women use to navigate motherhood: the quality-quantity (Q-Q) and time-expenditure (T-E) trade-offs. By providing empirical evidence for both margins, we show that women are not passive subjects of child penalties; they are active, strategic agents who utilize these finer trade-offs to realize family goals while mitigating career costs. Our findings highlight that because fertility and penalties are deeply endogenous, policy frameworks that exclude these trade-offs will fundamentally miscalculate the fertility responses and career costs of interventions." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| JEL: | E24 J13 J22 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202602 |
| By: | Schubart, Constantin; Meyer, Svenja |
| Abstract: | This study examined the relationship between employees' personal work values, their alignment with organizational values, and their effects on employee engagement and turnover intention, with a focus on generational differences. Drawing on the Person-Environment Fit framework, the Job DemandsResources model, and Self-Determination Theory, the study explored whether value alignment predicts engagement and turnover intention, and whether it mediates the relationship between the two. Data was collected via an online survey from 202 participants across various organizational contexts. Measures included the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale (UWES-9), the Turnover Intention Scale (TIS-6), and an adapted version of the Work Values Survey (WVS). Multiple linear regression and MANOVA were used for hypothesis testing. Results showed that engagement significantly predicted reduced turnover intention, confirming prior research. However, value alignment did not significantly predict engagement or turnover intention, nor did it mediate the relationship between them. Among work values, altruism, prestige, and pay were significantly associated with engagement. No significant generational differences in work values were found, likely due to sample imbalances. The findings suggest that specific work values may influence engagement more than general alignment and highlight the need for refined measurement approaches. Implications for retention strategies, as well as directions for future research on multilevel value alignment and generational diversity, are discussed. |
| Keywords: | employee engagement, work values, value alignment, generational work values, turnover intention, retention strategies |
| JEL: | M12 J28 J63 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iubhbm:335881 |
| By: | Eliana La Ferrara; David H. Yanagizawa-Drott |
| Abstract: | We survey recent research on changing culture and social norms in developing countries and propose a simple framework to interpret these changes. We conceptualize individual utility from a given action as a function of three components: intrinsic valuations, material payoffs, and social interactions. Using this lens, we review evidence on interventions that target each component and their interactions. First, we discuss efforts to shift intrinsic values through schooling and curricula, information campaigns, mass media, and empowerment programs, with particular attention to gender norms, intimate partner violence, and harmful practices such as female genital cutting. Second, we examine social determinants of behavior, including misperceptions about others’ beliefs, coordination failures, and the role of intermediate “stepping-stone” actions in facilitating or hindering norm transitions. Third, we analyze how changes in material incentives, via labor market opportunities, transfers, and legal reforms, affect behavior and underlying norms. Throughout, we highlight methodological challenges in measuring norms and identifying mechanisms, and we emphasize that policy effects depend critically on existing social structures and belief distributions. We conclude by outlining open questions from a positive and normative perspective. |
| JEL: | J20 O12 Z10 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34784 |
| By: | Licker, Luisa V.; Guthmuller, Sophie; Wübker, Ansgar |
| Abstract: | Dementia is associated with an increasing need for care, which is often provided by informal carers. This may have an impact on their behaviour in the labour market. This study analyses the impact of dementia severity on informal care, labour market participation and working hours of informal carers. We use data from the multinational RightTimePlaceCare (RTPC) study, which covers eight European countries and uniquely links detailed information on people with dementia and their primary informal carers. Using descriptive statistics and multivariate regression models, we analyse the relationships between the severity of dementia, the intensity of care and labour market outcomes, taking into account the endogeneity of care intensity through an instrumental variable approach. Our results show that higher dementia severity significantly increases the intensity of informal care and substantially reduces both labour market participation and working hours of informal carers. These findings highlight the economic consequences of dementia care and underscore the importance of considering labour market impacts when assessing informal dementia care. |
| Abstract: | Demenz geht mit einem steigenden Pflegebedarf einher, der häufig von informellen Pflegekräften gedeckt wird. Dies kann sich auf ihr Verhalten auf dem Arbeitsmarkt auswirken. Diese Studie analysiert die Auswirkungen des Schweregrads der Demenz auf die informelle Pflege, die Erwerbsbeteiligung und die Arbeitszeiten informeller Pflegekräfte. Wir verwenden Daten aus der multinationalen RightTimePlaceCare (RTPC)-Studie, die acht europäische Länder umfasst und detaillierte Informationen über Menschen mit Demenz und ihre primären informellen Pflegekräfte auf einzigartige Weise miteinander verknüpft. Mithilfe deskriptiver Statistiken und multivariater Regressionsmodelle analysieren wir die Zusammenhänge zwischen dem Schweregrad der Demenz, der Intensität der Pflege und den Arbeitsmarktergebnissen, wobei wir die Endogenität der Pflegeintensität durch einen Instrumentvariablenansatz berücksichtigen. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass ein höherer Schweregrad der Demenz die Intensität der informellen Pflege deutlich erhöht und sowohl die Erwerbsbeteiligung als auch die Arbeitszeit der informellen Pflegepersonen erheblich verringert. Diese Ergebnisse verdeutlichen die wirtschaftlichen Folgen der Demenzpflege und unterstreichen, wie wichtig es ist, bei der Bewertung der informellen Demenzpflege die Auswirkungen auf den Arbeitsmarkt zu berücksichtigen. |
| Keywords: | Dementia, Informal caregiving, Labour market participation, Labour market hours |
| JEL: | J14 J22 I11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:335897 |
| By: | Trinh Phuc Hung; Aleksandar Vasilevv |
| Abstract: | This research aimed to identify existence of a New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Vietnam. The examined period was 2012Q2 – 2025Q2, using secondary macroeconomics data and the Generalised Moments Method at 95% level of confidence. The dependent variables were price inflation and wage inflation, while the independent variables were the expected future inflation, three proxies of real marginal cost (the output gap, unit labour cost and labour income share), and the long-short interest rate spread. Findings from the research confirmed the existence of the traditional NKPC in Vietnam, with inflation positively influenced by the real marginal cost. Among the proxies, the conventional output gap is not totally outdated, having a positive, weak but statistically significant impact on wage inflation. Still, proxies related to the labour market were much stronger, positive determinants of both price and wage inflations. The inclusion of the interest rate spread made the effects of the proxies (on inflation) slightly stronger. A positive relationship was also found between current and expected future inflation, and inflation persistence in Vietnam was witnessed. Compared to some other emerging, open economies in the world, the Phillips curve in Vietnam in the period was flatter. The research wrapped up with some implications for academic researchers and Vietnam’s central bank, specifically regarding the cautious application of the structural NKPC model to explain short-run inflation dynamics in monetary decisions in Vietnam. |
| Keywords: | New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC), price inflation, wage inflation, output gap, unit labour cost, labour income share, Generalised Moments Method (GMM). |
| JEL: | E31 J31 J33 |
| Date: | 2026–01–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2026_02 |