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on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages |
| By: | Fu, Qifan (The University of Osaka); Sasaki, Masaru (The University of Osaka) |
| Abstract: | This study comprehensively assesses the effects of exposure to temperature extremes on workplace health, safety, and economic outcomes. Using Japanese prefecture-level data on work-related injuries and fatalities (2014-–2019) combined with weather records, we estimate that higher temperatures significantly increase work-related injuries and their associated social costs. When exposed to temperature extremes, workers neither reduce their working hours nor exit the labor force. Furthermore, testing the compensating wage differential model reveals minimal wage increases for exposure to temperature extremes. These findings highlight the need for effective policies to mitigate the adverse effects of temperature extremes in the workplace. |
| Keywords: | extreme temperatures, defensive investment, work-related injuries, climate change adaptation, compensatory wage differentials |
| JEL: | J28 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18592 |
| By: | Sydnee Caldwell; Ingrid Haegele; Jörg Heining |
| Abstract: | We estimate firm-specific amenity valuations using discrete choice experiments embedded in a large-scale survey of German workers linked to administrative records. Workers rank hypothetical offers from real firms they would consider joining, with randomized wages identifying money-metric valuations. Valuations vary substantially across firms and demographic groups, yet a single index performs surprisingly well. Valuations are approximately orthogonal to firm wage premia; they therefore do not offset between-firm wage inequality. However, male-female differences in amenity valuations explain part of the gender wage gap. |
| JEL: | J31 J32 J33 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35149 |
| By: | Biddle, Jeff (University of Notre Dame); Hamermesh, Daniel (University of Texas at Austin) |
| Abstract: | We demonstrate nearly steady trends from 1973-2023 in the U.S. in the timing of when people work for pay, away from evening and night hours toward “usual†daytime hours. Much of the trend is related to increased real incomes, with rising educational attainment, the changing composition of the (declining) manufacturing industry, and the increased wage premium for undesirable work times - evenings and nights - that we document accounting for the rest. The trend exists in all major industries except retail, in which changes in technology biased work away from daytime hours. It was accelerated by the sharp increase in telework that occurred after the Covid pandemic, an increase that was especially concentrated during daytime hours. While we observe the same phenomenon in France from 1966 to 2010, we do not in the U.K. from 1974-2015, arguably because of the very sharp decline in unionization in the U.K. and the changes in retailing. |
| Keywords: | work timing, Covid, time use, home work |
| JEL: | J22 J23 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18593 |
| By: | Martínez, Claudia; Perticará, Marcela; Puentes, Esteban; Vásquez, Javier |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how disability onset and subsequent administrative registration affect labor market trajectories in Chile, a middle-income country with a large informal sector. Using panel survey data linked to administrative records, we estimate dynamic employment and earnings effects around disability events. Disability onset generates sharp and persistent losses: Full-year employment falls by about 11 percentage points at onset and by 20 to 25 percentage points within six years, while formal wages decline by approximately 6% initially and by more than 30% five years later. Among those who remain employed, the probability of working informally rises over time while formal employment probability falls, indicating adjustment along the margin of employment quality. Registration is clearly endogenous: Individuals who certify display preexisting employment deterioration, which prevents a causal interpretation of the effects of registration. |
| Keywords: | Disability |
| JEL: | J14 J21 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14575 |
| By: | Torberg Falch; Bjarne Strøm |
| Abstract: | Teachers matters for students' outcomes. This chapter summarizes the literature on the effect of teachers on student outcomes and considers teacher quality within the framework of the teacher labor market in terms of supply and demand. In practice, credible measurement of the quantitative importance of teachers is challenging to establish, and in particular what characterizes strong and weak teachers. The last years have witnessed an explosion of studies of teacher quality as a result of increased availability of longitudinal administrative data matching students, teachers and schools. Based on the education production function framework, we consider to what extent different research strategies are able to provide credible evidence on teacher quality. Estimated teacher effects on student achievement may reflect that some teachers are better at teaching to the test rather than generating true knowledge. Thus, we also discuss to what extent estimated teacher quality translates into education and labor market outcomes after students have left school, which illustrates the potential economic value of increased teacher quality. We discuss to what extent teacher quality is related to individual teacher characteristics and teacher labor market conditions. We also consider whether different policy reforms, such as increased teacher pay and decentralization of teacher wage setting, may improve teacher quality. Finally, we discuss the usefulness of using teacher quality measures in teacher evaluation systems, pay policies, and hiring processes. |
| Keywords: | teacher quality, teacher labor market, student achievement, teacher pay policies |
| JEL: | I20 I28 J24 J44 J45 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12631 |
| By: | Anne Katrine Borgbjerg; Hans Sigaard; Michael Svarer; Rune Vejlin |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impact of an increase in the early retirement age (ERA) on labor supply, health, and healthcare use using a regression discontinuity design. Raising the ERA increased employment and use of public transfers. Effects on GP visits and painkiller use are precisely estimated, small, and insignificant, while antidepressant and cardiovascular drug use increased slightly, but only borderline significantly. Those induced to work had lower pre-reform income and wealth, whereas those not working despite exposure had poorer pre-reform health. We argue that possibilities for exiting employment serve as a mitigating mechanism by sorting vulnerable individuals out of employment. |
| Keywords: | retirement reforms, health, healthcare utilization |
| JEL: | I18 J18 J26 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12628 |
| By: | Uğur Aytun; Eren Gürer; Erol Taymaz |
| Abstract: | In December 2017, the government of Türkiye announced a comprehensive ban on the procurement of outsourced services by public institutions and mandated that all workers providing such services on-site be transitioned into permanent public positions within six months. We study the labor-market consequences of this abrupt and large-scale policy change using an administrative, linked employer–employee dataset. We find that workers who transitioned into public employment experienced higher wages and improved job security. At the firm level, private service providers with greater exposure to the reform faced higher exit rates and, if they survived, declines in employment, productivity, and profitability. In contrast, municipal-owned enterprises that internalized service provision became more productive and profitable. We also document modest positive wage spillovers in local labor markets. Overall, our results suggest that the outsourcing ban reallocated rents away from private service providers toward workers and public employers. |
| Keywords: | public employment, outsourcing reform, labor market spillovers, firm dynamics, productivity |
| JEL: | J31 J38 J62 L33 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12636 |
| By: | Gagnon, Nickolas; Nosenzo, Daniele |
| Abstract: | We investigate preferences for engaging in or opposing discrimination, focusing on moral preferences beyond self-interest. Some individuals may oppose statistical discrimination on grounds of protected-group equality, while others may prefer it to reward groups with higher average merit. Likewise, individuals may oppose taste discrimination or assert their tastes for groups. We conduct incentivized online experiments to elicit discrimination preferences in three domains: ethnicity, gender, and LGBTQ+ status. Analyzing over 60, 000 anonymous decisions about how to pay workers, we report highly heterogeneous preferences and a paradox of meritocracy-while merit may be a reason to reject discrimination, it also justifies discrimination. |
| Keywords: | Discrimination, Moral principles, Experiment, Ethnicity, Gender, LGBTQ+ |
| JEL: | D63 D90 J23 J31 J71 J78 K31 M52 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:340785 |
| By: | Ghorpade, Yashodhan (World Bank); Jasmin, Alyssa (World Bank); Abdur Rahman, Amanina (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Debates on gig work often treat flexibility and social protection as substitutes. This paper shows that gig workers value different forms of flexibility differently, and that preferences for flexibility and social protection can be complementary. Using discrete-choice experiments with digital freelancers in Malaysia, with standard workers as a benchmark, we examine preferences for work location and scheduling autonomy. Four findings emerge. First, gig workers strongly value spatial autonomy and are willing to pay to work-from-home. Second, preferences for scheduling flexibility are heterogeneous, with many, including freelancers, preferring fixed schedules. Third, willingness to pay for long-term protection in the form of retirement savings increases with both types of autonomy. Fourth, willingness to pay for unemployment insurance is linked only to work-location flexibility. Gig workers possibly associate remote work, but not flexible hours, with greater employment uncertainty, and therefore demand stronger protection against unemployment risks. Flexibility and protection can therefore act as complements rather than substitutes in the gig economy. |
| Keywords: | gig economy, flexible work arrangements, work-from-home, work scheduling, job amenities, social insurance, labor market risk, discrete choice experiments |
| JEL: | J31 J22 J41 J65 D81 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18589 |
| By: | Bart K. de Koning (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Robert Dur (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Didier Fouarge (Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | In a natural field experiment, we provide information to students about job opportunities and hourly wages of occupations they are interested in. The experiment takes place within a widely-used career orientation program in the Netherlands, and involves 28, 186 pre-vocational secondary education students in 243 schools over two years. The information improves students’ belief accuracy and leads them to change their preferred occupation to one with better labor market prospects. Administrative data covering up to seven years after our experiment shows that students who receive information choose and graduate from post-secondary education programs with better job opportunities and higher hourly wages. |
| Keywords: | Education choice, labor market information, field experiment. |
| JEL: | D83 I26 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260011 |
| By: | Airi Hayama (Graduate School of Economics, Keio University) |
| Abstract: | Japan is experiencing a continuous decline in Ph.D. enrollment; Develops a dynamic heterogeneous-agent model with non-pecuniary preference; Heterogeneity in “academic taste†drives Ph.D. enrollment decisions; Ignoring this heterogeneity overestimates the effects of financial aid; Financial aid has a limited impact on Ph.D. enrollment |
| Keywords: | Ph.D. Enrollment, Heterogeneous-Agent Macroeconomic Model, Non-Pecuniary Preferences, Human Capital, Financial Aid, Income Risk |
| JEL: | D15 E24 I22 I23 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–04–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:dp2026-008 |
| By: | Hassan Afrouzi; Andres Blanco; Andrés Drenik; Erik Hurst |
| Abstract: | We study how an automating technology affects career dynamics, human capital, and welfare in an economy where workers acquire skill through the tasks they perform. In a continuous-time general equilibrium model, learning-by-doing is determined jointly with the share of tasks automated, the frontier of tasks managers maintain, and the worker-to-manager career transition. Economies with high learning capacity admit pairs of stationary equilibria strictly ranked by the aggregate learning rate. Cheaper technology has opposite effects across the two: in the high-learning equilibrium, it raises welfare through the learning channel itself; in the low-learning equilibrium, it tips the economy into a human-capital trap. The planner's first-best combines a tax on automation profits with a subsidy on frontier-maintenance expenditures at a common rate. |
| JEL: | E23 E24 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35157 |
| By: | Christoph M. Flath; Fabian Kosse; Victor Klockmann; Alicia von Schenk; Nikolai Stein; Nico Elbert |
| Abstract: | The value of being a "team player" is not fixed – it depends on how work is organized. Using 1.5 million matches among 30, 459 players in temporary teams formed by quasi-random matchmaking, we measure each player's coordination ability as a stable trait distinct from solo technical skill. This "team player effect" has a standardized coefficient ratio to individual skill (TPE/SELO) of about 47% in team contests but near zero in solo play. The return to coordination is strongly context-dependent: across a team-size × task-structure grid, the TPE/SELO coefficient ratio shifts from 35% to 72% (2.1×; 1.28×–1.49× within player), driven by team scale increasing coordination demands and task interdependence attenuating the predictive power of individual skill. Teammates perceive this quality, re-selecting high-coordination partners 23% more often. These findings connect individual coordination capabilities to organization design, providing field-scale evidence for classical contingency theory's prediction that the value of coordination depends on structural context. |
| Keywords: | team performance, coordination, social skills, team player effect, familiarity, e-sports |
| JEL: | D24 L23 J24 M54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12626 |
| By: | Steven N. Durlauf |
| Abstract: | This article proposes a way of understanding meritocracy from retrospective versus prospective points of view. Retrospective meritocracy is static or backwards-looking: Merit is based on an individual’s characteristics or past achievements as representative of excellence or as desert for a position already obtained. Prospective meritocracy is forward-looking: Merit is functionally defined as the comparative contribution that an individual makes to a specified set of social objectives. I use formal models to show that these alternative conceptions have very different implications for meritocratic assignments of students to schools or workers to jobs and that they involve differing information needs for a policymaker. These different approaches to merit demonstrate how alternate versions of meritocracy may or may not be socially efficient. I discuss implications for the use of meritocracy as a desideratum for various public policy contexts. |
| JEL: | D63 D78 I24 I28 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35151 |
| By: | Dorsett, Richard (University of Westminster); Oppedisano, Veruska (University of Westminster); Thomson, Dave (FFT Lab); Zhang, Min (University of Westmisnter) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the timing of excluding disruptive pupils affects peer outcomes. While removing disruptive pupils may benefit classmates, delays in exclusion can impose costs. We interpret exclusion as determining the timing of removal and estimate the effects of earlier versus later exclusion using an instrumental variables approach based on exogenous variation in local capacity for excluded pupils. We find that exclusions in Year 9 generate the largest negative spillovers: an additional excluded pupil per 1, 000 reduces GCSE Maths and English scores by 0.024 and 0.044 standard deviations, lowers Level 2 and Level 3 attainment by around 0.6 percentage points, and increases the probability of being NEET at age 21 by 0.62 percentage points. Effects vary by timing and pupil characteristics, with early exclusions linked to improved labour market outcomes and later exclusions associated with broader losses for disadvantaged pupils. We show that these effects are driven by prolonged exposure to disruptive behaviour prior to exclusion, proxied by accumulated suspension days. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of timely responses to disruption and the broader social costs of exclusionary discipline. |
| Keywords: | disruptive behaviours, exclusions, schooling, peer effects |
| JEL: | C36 I2 I20 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18599 |
| By: | Daniela Vidart |
| Abstract: | This paper examines correspondence education as an alternative educational pathway in early 20th-century America. Using newly digitized records from the International Correspondence Schools—the largest such institution, with over 4 million students by 1940—linked to census data, I show that enrollment increased the likelihood of skilled employment by 6-10pp within 3-10 years, particularly among younger students who used it as a substitute for high school. I develop a general equilibrium Roy-style model where individuals sort into educational options by ability. Consistent with the model, correspondence education facilitated skill acquisition for lower-ability individuals and improved selection into high school, amplifying its returns. |
| JEL: | E24 I21 J24 N32 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35147 |
| By: | Federico Atzori (Sapienza University); Luca Corazzini (University of Milan - Bicocca); Valeria Maggian (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Filippo Pavesi (LIUC University); Massimo Scotti (LIUC University) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how generative AI shapes creative performance and human-AI interaction in an open-ended writing task that employs a laboratory experiment in which participants are randomly assigned to either receive access to a large language model (ChatGPT-4.2) or not. Creative performance is measured by the average score assigned by independent evaluators recruited through the Prolific platform, and detailed logs of human-AI interaction are analyzed to measure AI use, prompting intensity, ideation requests, and the textual overlap between AI outputs and participants' final writings. Three main results emerge. First, AI access increases performance, but the gain is entirely driven by active use: participants with access who do not submit queries perform no better than those without AI. Second, the relationship between interaction intensity and performance is concave, peaking at roughly eight queries, consistent with iterative exploration rather than mechanical copying. Third, structural mediation analyses show that ideation requests affect performance primarily indirectly, by increasing downstream incorporation of AI-generated language; the direct effect of requesting an idea from the AI is negligible once execution-stage reliance is accounted for. We further document heterogeneity in AI reliance: cultural capital (proxied by books owned) predicts lower AI use, while prior AI exposure predicts higher use. By contrast, incentive schemes have limited effects on both outcomes and AI-related behaviors. |
| Keywords: | Human-AI Interaction; Creativity; Generative AI; Laboratory Experiment |
| JEL: | C91 D83 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2026:16 |
| By: | Comey, Matthew (Joint Committee on Taxation); Eng, Amanda (Internal Revenue Service); Leung, Pauline (Cornell University); Pei, Zhuan (Cornell University) |
| Abstract: | In an instrumental variable framework, we define supercompliers as the subpopulation whose treatment take-up positively responds to eligibility and whose outcome positively responds to take-up. Supercompliers are the only subpopulation to benefit from treatment eligibility and, hence, are important for policy evaluation. We propose conditions for characterizing supercompliers, and show how estimation and inference can be conducted with instrumental variable regression. In two job training experiments, we demonstrate our machinery's utility, particularly in incorporating social welfare weights into marginal value of public funds analyses. |
| Keywords: | compliers, supercompliers, marginal value of public funds |
| JEL: | C10 H00 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18598 |
| By: | Britton, Jack (Institute for Fiscal Studies, London); Ridpath, Nick (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Villa, Carmen (University of Zurich); Waltmann, Ben (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the Education Maintenance Allowance, a large conditional cash transfer scheme that paid low-income teenagers in England to remain in education beyond age 16. Using the staggered national roll-out of the programme and linked administrative data tracking education, earnings, welfare payments and criminal convictions to age 31, we find no significant overall effect of the policy on labour market outcomes or criminality. High-attaining students were more likely to attend university but no more likely to graduate. Low-attaining students committed fewer crimes. We estimate the Marginal Value of Public Funds was 0.85 (95% confidence interval 0.52–1.29); even at the upper bound of this interval, benefits barely outweigh costs. |
| Keywords: | conditional cash transfers, education, crime |
| JEL: | I28 J24 H52 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18575 |
| By: | Hiroshi Inokuma (Director, Financial System and Bank Examination Department, Bank of Japan (E-mail: hiroshi.inokuma@boj.or.jp)) |
| Abstract: | Over the past four decades in the US, routine employment has declined sharply while college attainment has risen steadily. I develop a quantitative model in which workers choose whether to attend college and whether to work in abstract or routine occupations. The calibrated model implies that computerization raises the return to educational skill within routine work, raising the within-occupation college share faster in routine jobs than in abstract jobs. I test this implication in the data by estimating how baseline task content predicts subsequent educational upgrading across occupations. The regression evidence confirms faster college-share growth in more routine-taskintensive occupations. Quantitatively, the model attributes about one half of the aggregate increase in the college share over 1980-2019 to computerization. |
| Keywords: | investment specific technological change, computerization, occupational choice, schooling choice |
| JEL: | E24 J24 O33 I21 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:26-e-05 |
| By: | Mitsuru Katagiri (Associate Professor, Faculty of Commerce, School of Commerce, Waseda University (E-mail: mitsuru.katagiri@waseda.jp)) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of employment protection legislation (EPL) through workers' optimal human capital choices and the resulting changes in labor market fluidity. In a general equilibrium model, stringent EPL shifts investment from general to firmspecific human capital, reducing aggregate labor mobility across employers. Using Japanese microdata to discipline the model's human capital accumulation process, we show that although EPL increases overall human capital accumulation, the resulting decline in labor market fluidity lowers average matching efficiency and generates sizable output losses following structural changes that require labor reallocation. |
| Keywords: | Labor market fluidity, Human capital, Employment protection, Job tenure |
| JEL: | E24 J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ime:imedps:26-e-01 |
| By: | Neisser, Carina (University of Cologne); Wehrhöfer, Nils (Bundesbank) |
| Abstract: | We study how public disclosure of politicians’ outside income affects their behavior. We exploit a disclosure reform targeting German federal MPs and tax-return data in a difference-in-differences setup using unaffected state MPs as controls. MPs increase their outside income by 24%, driven by likely right-leaning MPs. A representative survey experiment uncovers that right-leaning voters interpret outside income as a signal of competence and hard work, while left-leaning voters associate it with weaker representation. Consistent with this, we show that newspapers cover right-leaning MPs’ outside activities more favorably. Our findings suggest that politicians strategically use public disclosure as a signaling tool. |
| Keywords: | tax data, outside income, politicians, income disclosure |
| JEL: | D72 D83 J45 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18576 |
| By: | Eric Bartelsman (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Sabien Dobbelaere (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Alessandro Zona Mattioli (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a micro-founded framework linking price-cost and wage markups to intangible assets. Intangible assets, once created, are a source of firm rents. Owing to limits to enforceable ownership and the non-rival nature of knowledge, these rents can be both retained by the origin firm and transferred to a competitor through poaching of workers. Search and matching frictions affect labor mobility and result in bargaining over rents between the firm and the worker. This environment generates hold-up in intangible asset creation and motivates rent sharing. Under non-compete agreements, poached workers face start delays that weaken outside options. Using microdata from the Netherlands, we document higher price-cost and wage markups in more intangible-intensive firms and lower wages for workers with non-compete agreements, consistent with the model. |
| Keywords: | Price-cost markups, wage markups, rent sharing, intangibles, non-compete agreements |
| JEL: | J41 L10 O30 |
| Date: | 2026–02–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260008 |
| By: | CATTAN, SaRAH (IFS); Conti, Gabriella (University College London); Farquharson, Christine (IFS) |
| Abstract: | Early childhood programmes frequently lose effectiveness at scale, yet the role of the workforce remains poorly understood. We document substantial heterogeneity in workforce effectiveness in England's national home-visiting programme for first-time teenage mothers, despite a highly-structured curriculum and well-qualified staff. Exploiting quasi-random assignment of mothers to family nurses, we estimate that a one standard deviation increase in workforce effectiveness raises children's cognitive and socio-emotional development by 0.20-0.23 SD. Structural quality - observable worker characteristics - does not predict effectiveness, but process quality - how visits are delivered - does. Greater effectiveness is linked with improvements in maternal mental health and risk behaviours. |
| Keywords: | early childhood development, home visiting, workforce quality, process quality, scaling, Family Nurse Partnership |
| JEL: | I18 I38 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18584 |
| By: | Demirel, Merve (Stockholm University); Ghazarian, Avenia (House of Sustainable Society (HoSS)) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how restrictions on religious expression affect women’s educational attainment. We study the 2010 removal of the headscarf ban in Turkish universities, which had long limited access to higher education for visibly religious women. Our empirical strategy combines cohort-level variation in exposure to the reform with individual-level variation in the propensity to veil within a difference-in- differences framework. We estimate veiling propensities using an early wave of the Turkish Demographic and Health Survey and predict them for a later sample using both machine learning and parametric methods. We show that lifting the ban significantly increased educational attainment among women with a higher propensity to veil. These gains appear to be concentrated around the transition into and progression through secondary school. The results remain similar when, instead of individual-level propensities, we use pre-reform veiling prevalence at the province level as an alternative exposure measure. |
| Keywords: | Identity; Religious expression; Veiling ban; Turkey |
| JEL: | I24 J16 J24 Z12 |
| Date: | 2026–04–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:hamisu:2026_001 |
| By: | Chabé-Ferret, Bastien (Middlesex University, London); Iftikhar, Zainab (University of Bonn - CEPR); Park, JungJae (Yonsei University) |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the contributions of social norms and economic incentives to the 350-hour annual gap in maternal labor supply between East and West Germany. Using a collective model of family formation and labor supply estimated on GSOEP data from 2000–2017, we find that the working-mother stigma accounts for 73 percent of the gap. Economic factors partially offset the norm: higher Western wages raise the opportunity cost of staying home, so equalizing wages in West to the levels in East would nearly double the gap. We show that standard policy reforms may actually widen the regional disparity, and that their effectiveness is conditional on the norm being present: once removed, the same policies have negligible effects. |
| Keywords: | social norms, economic incentives, marriage, cohabitation, working mothers |
| JEL: | J01 J08 J12 J13 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18600 |
| By: | Ryan R. Hill; Carolyn Stein |
| Abstract: | We study how a frontier AI model affects scientific discovery by examining the release of the AlphaFold2 algorithm and its impact on structural biology and related fields of science. Structural biology is the field of science concerned with understanding the structure and function of proteins. Researchers in this field historically devoted substantial time and resources to experimentally solving three-dimensional protein structures. AlphaFold can predict these structures without running experiments. In July 2021, researchers gained access to hundreds of thousands of these AI-predicted structures virtually overnight. Yet, to date, we find that the rate of experimental structure determination has remained almost unchanged. Instead, researchers appear to use predicted structures to facilitate and complement experimental structure determination. Looking at downstream science that builds on protein structures, we find that basic research on proteins that had no structure information prior to AlphaFold increases by 15 to 40% relative to proteins that already had a structure, shifting the direction of research toward less-studied proteins. However, we find no evidence so far that more applied, early-stage drug development is targeting these proteins, though such activity may emerge in the future. |
| JEL: | I23 J24 L65 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35143 |
| By: | Fahn, Matthias (University of Hong Kong); Li, Jin (University of Hong Kong); Sun, Chang (University of Hong Kong) |
| Abstract: | We study how AI affects compensation and job design when performance depends on workers’ non-contractible effort. In a principal–agent model with limited liability, AI reduces effort costs but disproportionately lowers the cost of achieving satisfactory performance. This raises the incentive cost of sustaining high effort and can induce firms to replace high-wage, high-effort good jobs with low-wage, low-effort bad jobs, even when good jobs create more total surplus. As a result, AI can lower wages, reduce worker welfare, and even depress profits. If workers can adopt AI unilaterally, adoption occurs even when the resulting equilibrium harms both parties; when adoption requires worker cooperation, resistance is strongest where AI erodes rents embodied in good jobs. In a search-and-matching extension, endogenous outside options amplify these forces, reinforcing a bad-job economy and potentially reducing employment. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, agency costs, job design, labor contracts, limited liability, incentives, search and matching |
| JEL: | D86 J41 O33 L23 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18574 |
| By: | Alexandre Mas |
| Abstract: | I study hiring under uncertainty when firms can either hold permanent labor as a buffer or hire from a spot market after demand is realized. I build a model where the spot market is endogenously determined such that when one firm relies more on spot labor, it thickens the market that other firms use as well. Individual firms do not internalize that contribution, so the competitive equilibrium involves too much buffering. I evaluate the model in the market for registered nurses using the universe of daily time sheet records from skilled nursing facilities. The data support the model’s general equilibrium predictions. Markets with thicker agency markets have less rationing conditional on total nursing hours, and thicker agency markets have compressed upper tails of permanent staffing and higher overall hours in the lower part of the distribution. Estimating a facility-level newsvendor model with heterogeneous spot market frictions and rationing costs I find that the nursing labor market was more efficient post-COVID, there are substantial welfare gains from lower spot market frictions, and that the marginal external benefit for a firm that participates in the spot market instead of hiring an employee as buffer averages 7 percent of wages. This labor market underprovides flexibility because the value of availability is not fully priced. |
| JEL: | J0 J2 J3 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35148 |
| By: | Sam Sims (UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities); Clare Routledge (UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities) |
| Abstract: | Teacher shortages are a persistent challenge across many countries, yet a substantial minority of newly qualified teachers never enter employment. Why do people invest time and money gaining a qualification but then choose not to teach? Two leading explanations are (1) that those who leave have job preferences less suited to teaching than those who stay, and (2) that those who leave experience more "reality shock" during training. This research uses two-wave longitudinal survey data from 409 trainee teachers in England (2024-2026), measuring job preferences via a conjoint experiment and reality shock via expectation-experience comparisons towards the end of training, alongside employment outcomes the following year. We find little evidence that leavers differ from stayers in their preferences. Trainees report both negative and positive shocks, and negative shock is associated with lower intentions to enter teaching, but does not predict actual entry. Our findings suggest that the search for explanations should look beyond preferences and shock, including in other countries where the same qualification-to-employment gap has been observed. |
| Keywords: | teacher attrition, reality shock, job preferences, conjoint analysis, teacher training, teacher recruitment, initial teacher education |
| JEL: | I20 J24 J45 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucl:cepeow:26-04 |
| By: | Agarwal, Ruchir (Harvard University); Angeli, Deivis (Global Talent Lab); Gaule, Patrick (University of Bristol) |
| Abstract: | Prestigious prizes can shape scientists' career decisions, effort allocation, and field entry, yet the structure of recognition has not kept pace with modern discovery. We screen roughly 2{, }700 international scientific prizes and rank the 99 most prestigious using an index of expert survey ratings, demand for prize information, media news mentions, prize money, and longevity. Three patterns stand out. First, half of today's top prizes were first given after 1980 and one-third after 2000, showing new awards can rise to prominence. Second, recognition is unevenly distributed across fields: physics, life sciences, and mathematics are heavily recognized relative to field size, while computer science, engineering, psychology, and the social sciences are under-served. Third, incentive design is narrow: only three of the top 99 prizes target early-career scientists, and most lack mechanisms to promote future research. These findings inform the design of recognition systems that better align with contemporary science. |
| Keywords: | scientific prizes, recognition systems, innovation policy |
| JEL: | O31 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18578 |
| By: | Doxey, Alison (University of Chicago); Karger, Ezra (Chicago Federal Reserve Bank); Nencka, Peter (Miami University) |
| Abstract: | Between 1850 and 1910, the share of young Americans living in towns with high schools increased from 17% to 46% - the fastest expansion of school access in U.S. history. Using new data on every high school in the United States, we show that this expansion transformed economic opportunities for many young adults but widened class and racial inequalities. We find sharp increases in school attendance rates for high school-aged children in towns that opened a high school relative to children in nearby towns without one. Linking children to adult outcomes, we show that high schools increased women’s labor force participation and job quality, while reducing the probability of early marriage and childbearing. Increased access to high school accounts for a third of the increase in women’s labor force participation between 1870 and1930. High schools had the largest effects on children from already-wealthy families, and did not, on average, benefit Black children. While the high school movement substantially narrowed gender gaps in labor market outcomes, it also widened existing race- and class-based disparities. |
| Keywords: | high schools, education, economic history |
| JEL: | I26 J24 J16 D63 N31 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18580 |
| By: | Hal E. Hershfield; Suzanne Shu; Jeffrey R. Brown; Abigail Hurwitz; Moshe Arye. Milevsky; Olivia S. Mitchell; Tamiko Toland |
| Abstract: | Wealth decumulation decisions, or how to optimize consumption over an uncertain remaining lifespan, are among the most difficult people face. They involve intertemporal tradeoffs, uncertainty, complexity, and emotion, yet many consumers receive little formal guidance. A central challenge is securing lifetime income and avoiding outliving resources, particularly through life annuities that guarantee income for life. Standard economic models predict high demand for annuities, but in practice few individuals purchase them, a gap known as the annuity puzzle. This paper introduces annuities, examines limited adoption among consumers and plan sponsors, reviews leading explanations, and outlines approaches to increase uptake and improve decision quality. |
| JEL: | D14 G11 G23 H55 J26 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35145 |
| By: | Chaewon Baek (Department of Economics, Sungkyunkwan University, Tufts University); Vitaliia Yaremko (Department of Economics, Sungkyunkwan University, Tufts University) |
| Abstract: | We study how workers form inflation expectations and incorporate them into labor supply decisions using experimental evidence from the U.S. online labor market. Exploiting exogenous variation from randomized information provision, we find that higher price inflation expectations do not raise reservation wages. Instead, workers lower reservation wages for multiperiod contracts, even after controlling for wage growth and unemployment expectations. These patterns are consistent with a labor search model where higher inflation expectations reduce the perceived value of future job offers, increase income risk, and induce a precautionary reduction in reservation wages. Overall, the findings suggest limited risk of wage‐price spirals. |
| Keywords: | inflation expectations; cross-learning; labor supply; wage-price spiral; randomized control trial |
| JEL: | E31 C83 D84 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0926 |
| By: | Elizabeth Cox; Chloe N. East |
| Abstract: | We provide the first causal, national empirical analysis of the labor market impacts of heightened immigration enforcement during the second Trump administration. Enforcement increased everywhere, but, we take advantage of the fact that the increases have been uneven across geographic areas to classify areas as treated or control and then implement an event study and difference-in-differences design. Areas that experienced particularly large increases in the number of arrests also experienced a decrease in work among likely undocumented immigrants who remain in the U.S., compared to areas with smaller increases in arrests. We find no evidence of positive spillover effects to U.S.-born workers and U.S.-born workers who work in immigrant-heavy sectors are harmed. |
| JEL: | J1 J2 J6 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35129 |
| By: | Howard, Greg (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Weinstein, Russell (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign) |
| Abstract: | We study whether training teachers locally increases nearby teacher supply. We use the historical assignment of normal schools and insane asylums to identify the effect of university proximity. Normal schools, built to train teachers, became regional universities while asylums mostly continue as small psychiatric facilities. Our evidence suggests greater teacher supply in normal school counties: lower teacher wages and more teachers per student. Asylum counties have more teachers with emergency credentials and fewer who majored in education - suggesting they mitigate lower supply by hiring in different pools. Normal school counties have higher high school test scores and graduation rates. |
| Keywords: | teacher shortages, regional universities, teacher training, geographic frictions in the labor market |
| JEL: | I2 J61 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18572 |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh (World Bank); Do, Minh (University of Economics and Business, Vietnam National University, Hanoi) |
| Abstract: | While Vietnam has been remarkably successful in poverty reduction, the country is faced with various challenges ranging from uneven pockets of poverty, regional inequality, low labour productivity, and high informality rates, to a fast-ageing society. We offer an updated overview of the social protection system in Vietnam, including its design and function, scale and reach, and the impacts of some key programmes. Our results, based on recent literature review and new analysis using data from various international and national sources, could offer relevant inputs for policies to help address current challenges. |
| Keywords: | social protection, social insurance, social assistance, health, poverty, inequality, vulnerability, Vietnam |
| JEL: | H55 I30 J20 O10 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18588 |
| By: | Mika Akesaka (Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry and Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN); Nobuyoshi Kikuchi (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Tokyo Metropolitan University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | We study how husbands' weekday domestic work affects wives' labor supply among couples with children aged 9 or younger. To address endogenous selection, we use a control function approach that exploits bunching at zero in husbands' weekday domestic work hours. Using Japanese panel data, we find that the positive association between husbands' domestic work and wives' labor supply disappears after correcting for selection on unobservables. This suggests that the association is largely driven by selection. At the same time, husbands' domestic work increases wives' weekday domestic work, suggesting complementarities in couples' domestic work time. |
| Keywords: | Labor supply; Domestic work; Childcare; Time use; Control function |
| JEL: | J22 J13 J16 D13 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2026-15 |
| By: | Joseph Kopecky (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | Children of low‐income immigrants in the United States systematically out‐earn children of comparable natives. I develop a dynastic general‐equilibrium model to explain this 'immigrant mobility advantage' and quantify the macroeconomic costs of the institutional frictions underlying it. The central mechanism is a wedge between latent human capital and realized earnings: immigrants are positively selected on ability but face institutional frictions that decay at rate λ. Calibrated to U.S. data, the model fits key empirical patterns and reveals that immigrant frictions cost the U.S. economy 4.94% of GDP. This loss is split between a static labor‐misallocation loss (1.57 pp) and dynamic effects on intergenerational investment in human and physical capital (3.37 pp). I find that friction decay (assimilation) accounts for 87% of the second‐generation advantage, with positive selection contributing the remainder. Finally, the model identifies a 'sign‐flip' threshold at λ ≈ 0.25, beyond which frictions persist too strongly for the mobility advantage to appear. Calibrating λ across ten OECD destinations recovers a distribution of friction values that straddles this threshold, consistent with the heterogeneous mobility gaps documented in the empirical literature. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, intergenerational mobility, human capital, assimilation, general equilibrium |
| JEL: | E24 J15 J24 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0826 |
| By: | Gertsberg, Marina (University of Melbourne) |
| Abstract: | Academic seminars are a central mechanism through which the finance profession allocates visibility, feedback, and network access. Using a new panel of 8, 744 external seminars at 74 U.S. finance departments from 2010 to 2024, I document five stylized facts. First, female representation rose from 10% to 25%, outpacing growth in the female share of the finance faculty. Second, seminar presenters are positively selected on research visibility: relative to same-institution faculty, they have substantially more publications, Top-3 publications, and citations, and this premium is no larger for women than for men. Third, seminar matching is strongly hierarchical: lower-ranked departments invite upward, whereas top departments draw from a broader range of tiers. Fourth, geographic reach is greater for elite-affiliated and senior scholars. Fifth, seminar opportunities are highly concentrated, with the top 10% of presenters accounting for 43% of all talks. The evidence shows that finance seminars have become more gender-inclusive while remaining strongly selective and hierarchical. |
| Keywords: | finance profession, academic seminars, diversity, hierarchy, geographic stratification, academic labor markets |
| JEL: | I23 J16 J44 J71 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18603 |