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on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages |
| By: | Deriu, Letizia (University of Trento); Piazzalunga, Daniela (University of Trento); Tomasi, Chiara (University of Trento) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines gender disparities in the European labour market during the twin digital and green transitions. Using the European Skills and Jobs Survey matched with the ESCO occupational classification, it identifies digital and green occupations based on their skill content and analyses both access to these jobs and wage outcomes within them. Women are significantly less likely to work in digital and green occupations and, conditional on employment, face larger wage gaps than comparable men. They are also less likely to hold managerial positions and benefit less from STEM educational backgrounds, despite the positive returns associated with these qualifications. Finally, stronger regional STEM-oriented university environments are associated with smaller gender gaps in access to digital occupations and wages, suggesting that the twin transition may reinforce existing gender inequalities unless accompanied by targeted policies. |
| Keywords: | gender disparities, gender wage gap, green jobs, digital jobs, STEM, labour market |
| JEL: | J16 J24 J31 O33 Q52 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18987 |
| By: | Doganay, Husame (University of Alberta); Fang, Tony (Memorial University of Newfoundland); Liu, Xingfei (University of Alberta); Ranjb, Saba (University of Alberta); Sweetman, Arthur (McMaster University) |
| Abstract: | Using Canadian Census microdata, 1971–2021, we compare immigrant and native-born earnings across ten arrival cohorts by gender and age at arrival. For two recent cohorts, an earnings-based positioning measure combines industry mean annual earnings with full-time or part-time status; multinomial-logit average marginal effects are estimated. The study also maps 2021 industry employment shares to external digital-intensity and telework-feasibility classifications. We find entry earnings gaps and incomplete cohort convergence persist, especially among women and recent cohorts. Across the two positioning cohorts, immigrants are less likely than comparable native-born workers to hold full-time jobs in higher-earnings industries; gaps vary by source region and do not uniformly narrow. Education is associated with better positioning but does not eliminate gaps. Immigrant employment is more concentrated in many digitally intensive categories but less concentrated in several higher-earnings, high-telework-feasibility industries; digital intensity is not systematically related to immigrant employment shares. |
| Keywords: | immigrant earnings assimilation, labour-market allocation, industry positioning, remote work and digital intensity, labour-market inequality |
| JEL: | J15 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp19008 |
| By: | Vahagn Jerbashian; Montserrat Vilalta-Bufi |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence from a 2025 survey of individuals in Spain on workplace use of artificial intelligence (AI) and other modern digital technologies. AI use is already economically meaningful but far from pervasive, with about 16% of workers reporting AI use. Its adoption is highly uneven across workers and jobs, with strong gradients by education, age, earnings, and firm size and scope, as well as substantial within-occupation heterogeneity. AI use is strongly correlated with the use of other modern technologies, which accounts for a larger share of variation than any worker or job characteristic considered separately, including occupational exposure measures. The purposes of AI use also vary markedly across demographic groups and jobs. Users report predominantly positive productivity effects in abstract cognitive tasks, together with limited but systematic time reallocation across tasks. |
| Keywords: | AI at work, complementary technologies, task reallocation, productivity |
| JEL: | J24 O33 L23 C83 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13094 |
| By: | Doganay, Husame (University of Alberta); Fang, Tony (Memorial University of Newfoundland); Liu, Xingfei (University of Alberta); Ranjbar, Saba (University of Alberta); Sweetman, Arthur (McMaster University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies immigrant earnings integration in Canada using Labour Force Survey data from 2006 to 2021 and an empirical framework that separately models actual wages, counterfactual wages predicted from age- and gender-specific native wage profiles within detailed occupations, and the within-occupation wage gap between actual and predicted wages. This separation allows us to distinguish wage growth driven by occupational upgrading from within-occupation wage convergence. We find that years since migration are associated with substantial wage growth, primarily through movement into higher-paying occupations rather than rapid wage catch-up within occupations. While within-occupation wage gaps do narrow modestly over time, convergence along this margin remains slow and incomplete. These patterns are robust across gender and immigrants’ region of origin. The results indicate that persistent wage gaps are primarily associated with limited access to high-paying occupations rather than differential pay within jobs alone. This highlights occupational placement and the transferability of human capital as central margins along which immigrant earnings integration unfolds in Canada. |
| Keywords: | immigration, economic integration, occupational placement, wage gaps, human capital utilization |
| JEL: | J15 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp19007 |
| By: | Dai, Li (Hunan University); Martins, Pedro (Universidade Nova de Lisboa); Duan, Wenjing (Hunan University) |
| Abstract: | How do local labour markets shape the employment effects of minimum wages? We evaluate this question using comprehensive manufacturing firm data and over 28, 000 hand-collected county-level minimum wages during China's market transition (1998-2007). We find that, consistently with monopsony models, the employment response to higher minimum-wage exposure becomes less negative as local employer concentration increases, with positive point estimates arising in highly concentrated markets in some specifications, particularly among domestic private firms. Higher minimum-wage exposure may also be associated with lower reported training expenditure and greater firm exit. Our findings indicate that the employment effects of minimum wages can depend critically on local market structures, highlighting the importance of geographical and institutional heterogeneity when assessing labour regulation in transitioning economies. |
| Keywords: | minimum wages, labour market concentration, employment, monopsony, China |
| JEL: | J31 J38 J42 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18994 |
| By: | Joshua S. Gans; Peter Landry |
| Abstract: | Firms ask workers to train AI systems that will replace them. We model this with a worker who can shirk, cooperate with training, or obstruct training while maintaining productivity. Because training ends the job but only cooperation completes training, dismissal becomes a weaker penalty for shirking. The firm must raise the worker’s rent, and the worker gains from their replacement. AI can create jobs paying more than they produce and eliminate jobs it never automates. Firms paying only wages may slow training. A credible completion bonus equal to the worker’s rent without AI removes both the gain and the slowdown. |
| JEL: | D86 J24 J41 M52 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35950 |
| By: | Julien Senn; Thomas F. Epper; Ernst Fehr |
| Abstract: | Workers care not only about pay and career opportunities but also about meaningful work and socially responsible employers. This heterogeneity matters for worker-firm matching, recruitment, and compensation, yet its preference-based origins remain poorly understood. In a two-wave study of a sample broadly representative of the Swiss adult population (N=1, 031), we study whether social preferences provide a common account of life goals, job preferences, and occupational sorting. We structurally estimate two facets of social preferences: altruism in the advantageous and in the disadvantageous domain. We show that these two dimensions are negatively correlated, and that failing to account for both can substantially bias — in our applications, underestimate — the effects of social preferences. Social preferences predict respondents’ life goals, their preferred job attributes, and their willingness to work in the tobacco industry. In particular, higher altruism is associated with lower emphasis on wealth, financial security, career status, pay, and advancement, but greater emphasis on corporate social responsibility and meaningful work. It also predicts greater willingness to avoid working in the tobacco industry. Lastly, altruism when ahead is positively associated with employment in education, health, and social services. Thus, this paper highlights the importance of social preferences for explaining worker motivation and labor-market sorting. |
| Keywords: | social preferences, meaning-at-work, career choices, sorting |
| JEL: | D01 D91 J24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13075 |
| By: | Thomas Dohmen; Jonas Radbruch; Steffen Künn; Amelie Schiprowski |
| Abstract: | This paper studies workers’ preferences for dual-job arrangements in which workers reduce hours in primary employment to take up a secondary job in a different occupation to increase task variety and job satisfaction. Using a discrete choice experiment embedded in a survey of 5, 238 full-time, prime-age workers in permanent jobs in Germany, we ask respondents to compare their current job to a hypothetical dual-job arrangement that varies in earnings, contractual security, job-search support, and training requirements. We find that nearly half of respondents choose a dual-job arrangement in at least one out of five choice tasks presented to them. Earnings changes have large effects on acceptance, and contractual risk is a central non-wage determinant: guaranteed return options substantially increase participation and command high willingness-to-pay. Overall, the results indicate that a considerable share of workers is willing to reallocate working time across jobs primarily when income stability and employment security are preserved. |
| Keywords: | Secondary employment, Labor supply, Worker preferences, Discrete choice experiment. |
| JEL: | C25 J22 J28 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_788 |
| By: | René Karadakic; David C. Chan Jr; Nancy L. Keating; Bruce E. Landon; Michael L. Barnett |
| Abstract: | We estimate the returns to specialization in medical oncology, in which subspecialists focus on specific cancer types. Using 2.2 million Medicare chemotherapy episodes from 2008–2020, we instrument for subspecialist access with differential distance to cancer-type-specific subspecialists versus general oncologists. Access to a relevant subspecialist reduces three-year mortality by 4.5 percentage points (10 percent), without increasing Medicare spending or measured provider fragmentation. Subspecialists also increase the use of newer therapies and diagnosis-specific clinical trials. These findings show that specialization raises productivity when expertise is closely matched to the task. |
| JEL: | I1 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35946 |
| By: | Ayza Estopà , Guida (DULBEA, Université Libre de Bruxelles); Cockx, Bart (Ghent University); Fontenay, Sébastien (Universitat Pompeu Fabra); Tojerow, Ilan (Université Libre de Bruxelles) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how financial incentives shape labor supply decisions among disability insurance (DI) recipients who already combine benefits with part-time work. We exploit a distinctive feature of the Belgian Adapted Work Program, in which DI benefits are progressively withdrawn as earnings increase and the marginal withdrawal rate rises sharply at predefined thresholds. Because participants cannot freely adjust working hours, this setting allows us to estimate how higher implicit taxation affects transitions out of partial work. Using administrative data and a Regression Kink Design, we find that higher implicit tax rates induce exits in two opposite directions: toward full-time employment and back to full DI. A one euro increase in the implicit marginal tax per working day raises the probability of returning to full DI by 3.0 percentage points and of resuming full-time employment by 1.5 percentage points, corresponding to elasticities of 0.84 and 0.85. A simple labor supply model rationalizes these divergent responses. Our findings show that financial designs of partial-benefit schemes can determine whether partial work serves as a bridge toward full employment or instead leads recipients back to full benefit dependency. |
| Keywords: | disability insurance, return-to-work policies, financial incentives, regression kink design |
| JEL: | I13 I38 J14 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18998 |
| By: | Brosch, Hanna (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg); Langer, Christina (ifo Institute); Lergetporer, Philipp (Technical University of Munich); Mueller, Sandra (Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB)); Pfeifer, Harald (Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB)); Tschoepe, Nele (Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB)) |
| Abstract: | Does generative artificial intelligence (AI) expand the set of tasks that middle-skilled, early-career workers can successfully perform? In a field experiment with 673 final-year IT apprentices at twelve German vocational schools, we randomly assign access to AI for completing occupation-specific tasks. To identify task expansion, we study tasks both within the apprenticeship curriculum and deliberately beyond it. AI raises productivity substantially across all task types, with gains tending to be larger on tasks where performance without AI is lowest. Crucially, productivity increases by 26–31 percentage points on tasks beyond apprentices’ formal training, providing direct evidence of AI-enabled task expansion. These productivity gains do not come at the cost of reduced immediate task comprehension. Treatment effects are generally larger among apprentices with above-median AI literacy. |
| Keywords: | generative artificial intelligence, field experiment, productivity, task expansion, middle-skilled workers, apprenticeships |
| JEL: | J24 O33 C93 I21 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18999 |
| By: | Busso, Matías; González-Velosa, Carolina; Muñoz-Morales, Juan S.; Ruiz, Juanita; Valencia Romero, Juan Diego; van der Werf, Cynthia |
| Abstract: | This paper studies whether government-issued skill certification improves labor market integration when workers skills are hard to verify. We evaluate a randomized offer of access to an occupation-specific certification program in Colombia to locals and migrants, two groups with different ex ante signaling capacity. The program certifies existing skills rather than providing training. Among locals, the offer increases employment by reducing inactivity and raises hours worked. The effects persist unevenly over time and are robust to attrition bounds and alternative outcome measures. Among migrants, estimates are less precise and provide no evidence of effects in employment, hours, or wages. The results show that a common skill certification generates different patterns of labor market adjustment among locals and migrants. |
| Keywords: | signaling;certifications;skills;Migration |
| JEL: | J24 J61 J64 I26 O15 D82 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14806 |
| By: | Mendolia, Silvia (University of Turin); Suziedelyte, Agne (City University of London); Zhu, Anna (RMIT) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of local digital infrastructure (DI) expenditure on women’s and men’s employment using data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study linked with detailed local authority (LA) expenditure records for England in 2019-24. Our starting point is a fixed-effects multinomial logit (MNL) model that distinguishes three labour market states: paid employment, self-employment, and non-employment. It shows that greater DI expenditure raises the relative risk of both paid employment and self-employment relative to non-employment. A £10 per capita increase in DI spending is found to raise the probability of employment by 0.9 percentage points in the same financial year and by 1 percentage point in the following year, equivalent to 1.2-1.3% of the mean. Both women’s and men’s employment respond, and the gender difference is not statistically significant. Our results suggest that investment in DI can enhance employment plausibly by enabling home-based and technology-enabled work but is unlikely to close the gender gap in employment. |
| Keywords: | digital infrastructure, employment |
| JEL: | J24 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18995 |
| By: | Guida Ayza Estopà (Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management (SBS-EM), Department of Applied Economics (DULBEA)); Bart Cockx (Ghent University, Department of Economics, CESifo, UCLouvain, IRES/LIDAM, IZA Institute of Labor Economics, Maastricht University); Sébastien Fontenay (Universidad de Alcalà, Department of Economics, IZA Institute of Labor Economics); Ilan Tojerow (Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management (SBS-EM), Department of Applied Economics (DULBEA), IZA Institute of Labor Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how financial incentives shape labor supply decisions among disability insurance (DI) recipients who already combine benefits with part-time work. We exploit a distinctive feature of the Belgian Adapted Work Program, in which DI benefits are progressively withdrawn as earnings increase and the marginal withdrawal rate rises sharply at predefined thresholds. Because participants cannot freely adjust their working hours, this setting allows us to estimate how higher implicit taxation affects transitions out of partial work. Using administrative data and a Regression Kink Design, we find that higher implicit tax rates induce exits in two opposite directions: toward full-time employment and back to full DI. A oneeuro increase in the implicit marginal tax per working day raises the probability of returning to full DI by 3.0 percentage points and of resuming full-time employment by 1.5 percentage points, corresponding to elasticities of 0.84 and 0.85. A simple labor supply framework rationalizes these divergent responses. Our findings show that the financial design of partial-benefit schemes can determine whether partial work serves as a bridge toward full employment or instead leads recipients back to full benefit dependency. |
| Keywords: | Disability insurance; Return-to-work policies; Financial incentives; Regression kink design |
| JEL: | I13 I38 J14 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2026017 |
| By: | Nagler, Paula (Institute for Housing and Urban Development Studies, Erasmus University Rotterdam); Schuller, Emanuel (Institute for Housing and Urban Development Studies, Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | The emergence of the knowledge economy has transformed European labour markets and the political economy of social policy. Yet, despite the growing use of statutory minimum wages (SMWs) in Europe, their relationship to the knowledge economy has not been comprehensively analysed. This paper examines how knowledge-economy development is associated with the presence and levels of SMWs in 21 European countries from 1995 to 2021. Using probit models and fixed-effects panel regressions, we find that SMW outcomes depend more on the specific knowledge-economy trajectory than on its overall degree. While the knowledge economy index is weakly associated with SMW outcomes, its service- and manufacturing-oriented dimensions show opposing relationships with SMW presence and levels. Random forest analyses indicate that knowledge-economy proxies are among the strongest predictors of SMW outcomes. |
| Keywords: | comparative political economy, knowledge economy, labour market politics, minimum wages |
| JEL: | J3 J38 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18993 |
| By: | Henry E. Siu; Kelly Foley; Guido Matias Cortes |
| Abstract: | Some occupations pay higher wages than others, even conditional on worker characteristics, implying that occupations can be ranked on a ladder. We develop a simple decomposition to study the role this occupational ladder plays in average wage growth and in the fanning out of wages over the life cycle. We present three main findings. First, the distribution of employment shifts towards higher-paying occupations as workers gain experience. This contributes modestly to average life-cycle wage growth, with greatest impact in early career. Second, this upward movement in the occupational employment distribution is not accompanied by increasing dispersion; thus, the occupational ladder does not directly contribute to the fanning out of wages. Third, early-career workers who are well-positioned on the occupational ladder tend to earn wages far below the occupational average. However, by mid-career, workers’ relative wages within occupations (their positions on the job ladder) no longer depend on their occupation. This change in the covariance between individuals’ positions on the job and occupational ladders is a major contributor to the fanning out of wages over workers’ careers. |
| JEL: | E24 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35929 |
| By: | Jeffrey Clemens; Olivia Edwards; Jonathan Meer; Joshua D. Nguyen |
| Abstract: | Synthetic control methods hold the promise of identifying a credible counterfactual by closely reproducing pretreatment outcome paths. Their reliability, however, depends in part on how effectively they constrain researchers’ less-visible degrees of freedom. We explore these methods’ sensitivity by constructing 1440 plausibly defensible specifications to estimate the employment effect of California’s $20 fast-food minimum wage. While over 96 percent of the estimated employment effects are negative, the range is vast, illustrating that synthetic control methods are sensitive to specification choice. Estimates from simpler and far more transparent difference-in-differences methods lie near the centers of the comparable distributions of synthetic control estimates. |
| JEL: | C10 J23 J38 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35931 |
| By: | Federico Atzori (Sapienza University); Luca Corazzini (University of Milan - Bicocca); Valeria Maggian (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Filippo Pavesi (LIUC University); Massimo Scotti (LIUC University) |
| Abstract: | We examine gender differences in competitiveness when performance depends on creativity, which is central to many high-skilled jobs, and investigate how generative AI may affect them. Our study is based on a laboratory experiment in which participants complete a creative task and then choose whether to enter a tournament compensation scheme, with access to ChatGPT varying across treatments. While men and women achieve similar levels of creative performance, they differ in competition entry, with women displaying a lower willingness to compete in environments without AI assistance. This gender gap in competition becomes smaller when AI is available. To investigate the mechanisms behind this pattern, we construct a measure of underconfidence based on the difference between participants’ beliefs about their relative performance and their actual rank. We show that underconfidence predicts competition entry and that, besides improving creative performance, AI is associated with lower underconfidence, particularly among women. |
| Keywords: | Gender Gap in Competition; Creativity; Generative AI; Laboratory Experiment |
| JEL: | C91 J16 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2026:25 |
| By: | Douglas N. Harris; Christopher R. Taber; Yu (Alan) Yang |
| Abstract: | Over the past four decades, the earnings gap between college graduates and non-graduates has widened substantially, prompting interest in policies aimed at promoting higher education among low-income students. A key challenge for these policies is the high college dropout rate. This paper develops a dynamic model of college enrollment and completion with rich individual heterogeneity to assess how various factors influence college attendance, dropout, and graduation. We estimate the model using data from longitudinal surveys, results of quasi-experimental studies on grant aid, and large-scale randomized controlled trials. We use the model to simulate the effects of tuition subsidies, college loans, financial incentives, and increased pre-college skills on attendance and completion. We find moderate effects of most unconditional financial policies on attendance, with small effects on completion conditional on attendance. By contrast, some merit-based incentives, such as forgiving student loans upon receipt of a bachelor’s degree, have substantial effects. However, this type of policy and other financial subsidies accrue even more than the others to students from relatively wealthy backgrounds. Overall, it appears infeasible to design a financial aid policy that is simultaneously effective in raising attainment and fiscally progressive. By comparison, we find that the greatest potential for increasing attainment could come from better preparing students for college. |
| JEL: | I21 I22 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35930 |
| By: | Marco Francesconi; Xiaoyu Xia |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence (AI) may transform labor markets not only by changing workers' tasks but also by reorganizing production. We study radiology, where AI has spread rapidly without increasing interpretations per radiologist. In our model, AI facilitates outsourcing by letting hospitals verify the quality of remotely supplied interpretations. Using US Medicare data for 2013-2024, we document declining local radiology activity in smaller markets despite stable imaging demand. Interpretations shift toward larger markets, and radiologists at documented AI-adopting platforms end up serving more markets. AI can thus reshape firm boundaries and the geographic organization of professional work without replacing workers' tasks. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, labor demand, technology adoption, task substitution, firm boundaries, outsourcing, radiology, health care |
| JEL: | J23 L22 L24 O33 I11 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13086 |
| By: | Carla Varona Cervantes; Russell Cooper |
| Abstract: | This paper studies policy interventions intended to eliminate gender differences in labor market outcomes, principally wages. Because gender is an individual attribute rather than a manipulable treatment, the ideal experiment of randomly assigning gender to evaluate its effects is infeasible. Policies that remove gender labels from the employment process are the closest feasible counterpart. We quantify both the intended and unintended consequences of the policies through simulated interventions of an estimated equilibrium model of statistical discrimination with dynamic choices of education and labor market participation. In the short run the policy that requires gender free applications in the market for skilled labor eliminates wage gaps but once education choices respond the effects are attenuated. A more comprehensive policy that enforces gender free compensation reverses the wage gap in skilled markets and eliminates it in unskilled labor markets, even once education adjusts. These interventions impact college rates, the college premium gap and participation rates as well. The final section studies these interventions using a difference-in-differences (DID) approach to analyze the simulated data. With education fixed, the DID method recovers the policy effects but this is not the case once education adjusts, reflecting the effects of the intervention on both treated and control groups through equilibrium adjustments in beliefs. |
| JEL: | E24 I26 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35935 |
| By: | David R. Agrawal; Iuliia Shybalkina |
| Abstract: | The U.S. saw a sharp and persistent decline in public school enrollment alongside a surge in homeschooling during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper examines the role of work-from-home (WFH) in driving these changes. WFH may lower the cost of homeschooling through greater flexibility and reduced commuting, but productivity disruptions and shifts toward private schooling may offset these effects. We combine national data on public and private enrollments with newly assembled district-level homeschooling counts. Using variation in telework potential across local labor markets in a difference-in-differences framework, we find no aggregate decline in public school enrollment, but declines in private enrollment and corresponding temporary increases in homeschooling. The aggregate public school result masks heterogeneity: urban public schools experience declines, partially offset by gains in more remote areas. These enrollment shifts are critical for school finance, as they directly affect state aid formulas and therefore local district spending. |
| Keywords: | work-from-home, homeschooling, public schools, enrollment, state grants |
| JEL: | H75 I21 J21 R50 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13092 |
| By: | Mikkel Aagaard Houmark; Victor Ronda |
| Abstract: | This paper examines heterogeneity in the gender gap in early cognitive skills. While boys lag behind on average, we document both a socioeconomic and a genetic gradient, with disadvantaged boys falling substantially further behind comparable girls. Estimating a dynamic skill formation model, we show that the genetic gradient reflects boys’ greater sensitivity to their own endowments, while the socioeconomic gradient can be explained by genetic differences, higher returns to parental investment, and stronger skill self-productivity among boys. Differences in parental investments further amplify both the average gender gap and the overrepresentation of boys at both tails of the skill distribution. |
| Keywords: | child development, cognitive skills, parental investments, genes, SES |
| JEL: | D10 I24 J13 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13078 |
| By: | Isabel Cairó; Shigeru Fujita; Camilo Morales-Jimenez |
| Abstract: | The fiscal transfers deployed during the COVID-19 pandemic were unprecedented in scale and strongly progressive. Using CPS/ASEC data, we document that the decline in employment during the pandemic was larger for low-income households and tightly linked to the intensity of transfer receipt, a pattern absent during the Global Financial Crisis. We develop and estimate a two-sector, heterogeneous-household general equilibrium model in which low-income households are borrowing-constrained in normal times but can save out of sufficiently large transfers. Because preferences permit wealth effects on labor supply, transfers both reduce labor supply and raise consumption, and a dollar of transfers is split roughly evenly between the two margins. We find that the effects of transfers are state-dependent: because the borrowing constraint binds more tightly in a deeper recession, the same transfer relaxes a tighter constraint and delivers an employment and consumption response about 40 to 50 percent larger during the pandemic than when the same transfer is introduced in the steady state. In the model, transfers were welfare-improving for recipients, with gains diminishing as transfers increase. |
| Keywords: | employment; fiscal policy; labor supply |
| JEL: | E24 E62 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:103955 |
| By: | Emma Wohl |
| Abstract: | Offers of health insurance vary significantly across firm and establishment characteristics, including firm size, workforce sex, and workforce age (Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, 2024, Table I.A.2; Abraham et al., 2016). Low-wage workers in particular are less likely to receive health insurance from their employer, and employers tend to roll back benefits as minimum wages rise (Meiselbach and Abraham, 2023; Marks, 2011). This study aims to identify the effects by employer and workforce characteristics of minimum wage increases on employer-provided benefits using restricted-use data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey-Insurance Component (MEPS-IC). I use a two-way fixed effects approach, exploiting state legislation variation, to identify changes in the rates of employers offering health insurance and employer and employee characteristics associated with changes in health insurance offers. I study employer and employee characteristics for which minimum wage responses may differ due to differences in health insurance costs, impacts of the Affordable Care Act and other policies and legislation, and employee preferences for health insurance. I find that establishments alter offers of health insurance in response to the minimum wage differently based on firm size and workforce gender and age. Small firms drive reductions in health insurance offers as the minimum wage increases, and reductions are smaller among workforces with a greater share of female or older workers, who more highly value employer-provided health insurance. |
| Keywords: | minimum wage, employer health insurance |
| JEL: | J01 J3 I13 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-64 |
| By: | Johannes F. Schmieder |
| Abstract: | Variance decompositions from regressions with worker and firm fixed effects are widely used to measure heterogeneity and sorting in linked data. Variances computed directly from estimated effects overstate heterogeneity because they include estimation noise, and the bias can be large when few workers move between firms. This article introduces fevc, a Stata command that implements the leave-out bias correction of Kline, Saggio, and Sølvsten (2020, “Leave-Out Estimation of Variance Components, ” Econometrica 88: 1859–1898). fevc reports corrected variances of worker and firm effects, their covariance, and the variance of their sum. Researchers choose the unit left out, the treatment of controls, and the weights that define the population being described. The command also reports standard errors for projections of fixed effects on observed characteristics. It has two backends: a source-only Mata implementation that runs wherever Stata runs, and a parallel Rust plugin for large datasets. Calculations based on random projections report Monte Carlo standard errors that measure their numerical precision. In a public extract of Italian social-security records, the correction halves the estimated variance of firm effects and reverses the sign of the worker–firm covariance. In synthetic benchmarks with 6.4 million observations and 28 threads, the Rust backend is 1.3 to 3.5 times as fast as the Matlab package of Kline, Saggio, and Sølvsten. Under match deletion, its measured peak memory is about 30 percent of the Matlab package’s. |
| JEL: | C13 C23 C55 J31 J62 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35948 |
| By: | Andrew C. Johnston |
| Abstract: | Does working from home increase fertility? I study the 2020 expansion of remote work by comparing changes in births across U.S. college graduates whose majors differed in pre-pandemic teleworkability. Measuring exposure by college major avoids relying on occupations workers may have chosen in response to the expansion. Among married women, a one-standard-deviation increase in teleworkability reduced annual birth rates by 2 percent and increased full-time employment by 1.3 percent. I find no statistically significant effects on fertility among men or unmarried women, or on marriage or divorce. Accounting exercises suggest that increased employment can explain about half of the decline in births. The results suggest that returning to pre-pandemic telework levels would raise the total fertility rate by 0.09 births per woman. |
| JEL: | J12 J13 J16 J22 J81 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35881 |
| By: | Neele L. Balke; Stéphane Bonhomme; Thibaut Lamadon |
| Abstract: | Latent-variable models are central to economics but often entail intractable integration. Variational inference (VI), widely used in machine learning, turns this integration into tractable, differentiable optimization by replacing the likelihood with a variational objective. However, guarantees of recovering the true parameters remain limited when the variational family is insufficiently flexible—a key obstacle to the adoption of VI in economics. We first evaluate VI in models of earnings dynamics and show that the choice of variational posterior is crucial. We then introduce indirect variational inference (IVI), which treats VI as an auxiliary model and corrects the bias induced by the variational approximation. IVI retains much of VI’s tractability because it does not require computing the likelihood. We apply these methods to models allowing for nonlinear persistence, non-Gaussian and serially correlated transitory shocks, and latent heterogeneity. Across simulated and empirical applications, flexible variational families combined with IVI deliver reliable estimates. |
| JEL: | C10 C13 C15 C50 D31 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35877 |
| By: | Francine D. Blau; Lawrence Kahn; Freddy Bachmann; Helen Burkhardt; Leonardo Peñaloza-Pacheco; David Titus |
| Abstract: | We use Luxembourg Income Study and International Social Survey Programme microdata on 27 countries over the 1986-2019 period, augmented by policy and labor market information, to estimate the impact of family-friendly policies on gender gaps in employment, wages, earnings, and part-time work, as well as child penalties in employment and earnings. We find that longer duration of parental leave generally lowers gender gaps in wages, employment, earnings, and child penalties in employment and earnings, except for high levels of this entitlement, where further increases in leave raise gender gaps. We also find that the right to request a part-time work schedule raises relative female part-time employment but lowers employment and earnings gender gaps. Higher government expenditures for childcare lower employment, earnings, and part-time employment gender gaps as well as child employment and earnings penalties. These results are generally stronger for the less educated than for the highly educated, possibly reflecting higher costs of taking time off for highly educated women. Finally, expansion of family-friendly policies over this period can account for 24-33% of our sample’s reduction in gender gaps in employment and earnings and 46-76% of the reduction in child penalties in these outcomes. The slower expansion of such policies in the United States than elsewhere accounts for 6-15% of the slower reduction in US gender employment and earnings gaps and 20% of the slower fall in the US child employment penalty. |
| JEL: | J16 J18 J21 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35939 |
| By: | Felgueroso, Florentino (Fedea); García-Pérez, José Ignacio (Universidad Pablo de Olavide and Fedea); Jansen, Marcel (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid); Jiménez-Martín, Sergi (Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Fedea); Pérez-Gutiérrez, Daniel (Fedea) |
| Abstract: | The latest labor market reform enacted in Spain in December 2021 introduced unprecedented restrictions on the use of temporary contracts. This paper examines the reform's impact on the labor market outcomes of labor market entrants using administrative records from the Continuous Sample of Working Lives (MCVL). We identify the causal effects of the reform through a difference-in-differences design that exploits persistent pre-reform differences across provinces in the prevalence of temporary employment. To this end, we construct a novel measure of temporary employment that adjusts for differences in the sectoral composition of employment across provinces. We show that the reform led to a near-complete convergence in the probability that entrants obtained an open-ended contract in their first job. However, this substantial improvement in contractual stability translated into only modest convergence in subsequent labor market outcomes. We demonstrate that this apparent discrepancy is the result of two developments. Firstly, part-time and intermittent contracts account for over 80% of the increase in access to open-ended contracts. Secondly, the average length of entrants' regular open-ended contracts decreased following the reform. |
| Keywords: | dual labor markets, labor market reforms, temporary contracts, youth employment |
| JEL: | J08 J21 J41 J63 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18988 |
| By: | Beerli, Andreas (ETH Zurich); Fiorin, Stefano (Bocconi University); Gulyas, Andreas (University of Mannheim); Kopp, Daniel (ETH Zurich); Khoshnama, Mahsa (Princeton University); Siegenthaler, Michael (ETH Zurich) |
| Abstract: | We estimate how strongly job seekers value wages and job benefits, how well informed they are about compensation differences across firms, and how much they update beliefs when shown such information. In a field experiment, we randomly embed wage and benefit information from an employer-review platform on job ads for 265, 000 users of a Swiss job-board network. Revealed-preference estimates suggest a 1% higher posted wage increases clicks to view and engage with the ad by 0.4%. A conceptual framework decomposes this elasticity into preferences, prior knowledge, and belief updating, identified through a belief-elicitation experiment with users from the same job boards. We find job seekers underestimate wage differences across jobs by half, know little about benefit differences, and update beliefs partially. Accounting for these information frictions, the implied own-wage elasticity of applications is 2.5–2.9. Among twelve benefits shown, job seekers value four significantly: a company car (10% of wages), work from home (8%), firm-sponsored childcare (6%), and a parking spot (4%). The average job offers benefits worth 11% of wages. Because higher-paying jobs offer more benefits, total compensation inequality exceeds wage inequality. |
| Keywords: | amenities, job benefits, job search, wage elasticity of applications, wage transparency, willingness to pay |
| JEL: | J32 J33 J64 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18992 |
| By: | Katsuhiro Komatsu (Kyoto University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies when labor market competition raises the aggregate labor share. Competition can reduce wage markdowns at each firm, but it also moves workers up the job ladder to more productive firms, which tend to have lower labor shares. I derive an accounting identity for the labor share that holds under any wage-setting protocol. When workers move only to more productive firms, the identity characterizes how the labor share responds to competition. I apply it to two standard protocols. With Pareto productivity, competition does not change the labor share under wage posting. In contrast, under sequential auctions, it even lowers the labor share for any bargaining power below one, because workers accept lower starting wages in return for more frequent raises. Nevertheless, labor productivity distributions in U.S. manufacturing imply that competition raises the labor share under both protocols unless bargaining power under sequential auctions is close to zero. |
| Keywords: | Labor Share; Monopsony; Job Ladder; Productivity Distribution |
| JEL: | E25 J42 J62 J64 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:1132 |
| By: | Thomas Graeber; Christopher Roth; Florian Zimmermann |
| Abstract: | This article reviews how different types of information shape belief formation. We organize the discussion around two distinctions: whether information supplies evidence or a frame work for interpreting evidence, and whether it is qualitative or quantitative. Stories describe individual instances in qualitative terms, whereas statistics summarize many observations numerically. Narratives and quantitative models provide qualitative and quantitative frame works, respectively, for interpreting evidence. We examine how learning from evidence and learning from models interact: models shape responses to existing and subsequent evidence, while evidence can prompt model revision. We argue that qualitative information engages associative cognitive processes, such as mental simulation and memory retrieval, which tend to give it a larger and more lasting influence on beliefs than quantitative information. We then discuss implications for strategic communication and the supply of information in media markets, and identify challenges and open questions for future research. |
| Keywords: | Secondary employment, Labor supply, Worker preferences, Discrete choice experiment. |
| JEL: | C25 J22 J28 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_790 |
| By: | Paul A. Gompers; Henry Woo |
| Abstract: | Immigrant founders of US venture-backed startups exit successfully more often than native founders. Does this hold worldwide? Using career histories for 913, 226 founder-firm pairs in 213 countries (1990–2026), we compare founders who build abroad (expats) or return home after foreign experience (returnees) with comparable local founders in the same country. Both expats and returnees raise early funding more often globally. Expats' success premium, however, concentrates in the US (18 percent) and UK (26 percent), especially among those entering the US through graduate school, work, or direct founding. Returnees rarely show such a premium. Capital follows mobile founders across borders, but success follows them selectively. |
| JEL: | F22 G24 J24 J61 L26 J6 J60 J69 O57 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35943 |
| By: | Staubach, Rebecca |
| Abstract: | This study examines whether participation in an elite national team programme generates performance spillovers to athletes' grassroots home teams. Specifically, it asks whether teams with at least one Team Germany athlete perform better and whether such effects increase with the number of elite athletes. Based on a novel longitudinal dataset from German competitive cheerleading, grassroot sport home team performance using competition scores and the probability of achieving first place are analysed. Additional specifications examine nonlinear effects and potential pre-treatment differences. Teams containing at least one Team Germany athlete achieve consistently higher competition scores, while the association with first-place finishes is positive but less robust. Additional elite athletes do not generate proportional performance gains; the nonlinear specification instead indicates diminishing marginal returns. The findings suggest that elite athletes can generate spillovers beyond their national team environment through human capital, peer effects, and performance standards. For sport management, maintaining connections between elite athletes and their home teams may therefore allow elite development investments to generate broader grassroots benefits. |
| Abstract: | Diese Studie untersucht, ob die Teilnahme an einem Elite-Nationalmannschaftsprogramm Leistungsübertragungen auf die Heimatvereine der Athletinnen im Breitensport bewirkt. Konkret wird untersucht, ob Vereine mit mindestens einer Athletin der deutschen Nationalmannschaft bessere Leistungen erzielen und ob solche Effekte mit der Anzahl der Eliteathletinnen zunehmen. Auf der Grundlage eines neuartigen Längsschnittdatensatzes aus dem deutschen Wett kampf-Cheerleading werden die Leistung der Heimatmannschaften im Breitensport anhand von Wettkampfwertungen analysiert sowie die Wahrscheinlichkeit, den ersten Platz zu erreichen. Zusätzliche Spezifikationen untersuchen nichtlineare Effekte und potentielle Unterschiede vor der Aufnahme in die Nationalmannschaft. Teams mit mindestens einer "Team Germany"-Athletin erzielen durchweg höhere Wettkampfwertungen, während der Zusammenhang mit ersten Plätzen positiv, doch weniger robust ist. Zusätzliche Spitzensportlerinnen führen nicht zu proportionalen Leistungssteigerungen; die nichtlineare Spezifikation deutet stattdessen auf abnehmende Grenzerträge hin. Die Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass Spitzensportlerinnen durch Human kapital, Peer-Effekte und Leistungsstandards positive Ausstrahlungseffekte über das Umfeld ihrer Nationalmannschaft hinaus erzeugen können. Für das Sportmanagement könnte die Pflege der Verbindungen zwischen Spitzensportlerinnen und ihren Heimatvereinen daher dazu beitragen, dass Investitionen in die Spitzenförderung einen breiteren Nutzen für den Breitensport generieren. |
| Keywords: | Cheerleading, Elite Sport, Grassroots Sport, Spillover, Star |
| JEL: | C23 C25 J24 L83 M53 Z20 Z21 Z22 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:umiodp:344218 |
| By: | Luis Fernando Colunga; Miroslava Quiroga-Trevino; Irina Panovska; Prajyna Barua; B. Elam Rodríguez-Alcaraz |
| Abstract: | This paper constructs the first Beveridge Curves for Mexico and its regions using a newly compiled dataset on formal-sector job vacancies. A new measure of labor market slack for Mexico, based on the vacancies to unemployment (V/U) ratio, is introduced and used to explore national and regional Phillips Curves. Incorporating this novel vacancy dataset also makes it possible to identify structural macroeconomic shocks and analyze business cycle dynamics at both the national and regional levels through the estimation of a Structural Bayesian VAR model. The results show that unemployment dynamics are mainly driven by labor supply and matching efficiency shocks, while wage bargaining shocks explain most of the variation in vacancies at the national level, with notable heterogeneity across regions. |
| Keywords: | Beveridge Curve;Phillips Curve;Labor;SVAR;Vacancies;Unemployment;V/U ratio. |
| JEL: | J01 J23 J64 E24 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2026-07 |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | In Spain, the Complemento de Apoyo al Empleo (CAE) allows individuals to receive unemployment benefits whilst in employment. This paper sets out the findings and recommendations of a project aimed at improving the CAE, drawing on international good practice, as well as analyses carried out using the OECD TaxBen model and administrative data. Strengthening the role of CAE as wage insurance – by linking its amount either to UI entitlements or directly to the previous wage – would provide stronger work incentives when wage loss at re-employment is greater; and would limit low-wage traps for full-time workers. However, such reforms would tend to offer lower net income and weaker work incentives for workers transitioning between two low-paid jobs, compared with the current CAE. Strengthening the role of CAE as wage insurance would also increase CAE coverage among re-employed individuals and, consequently, fiscal costs, albeit to a moderate extent. Higher CAE coverage would particularly benefit certain vulnerable groups whose coverage is currently relatively low, such as the low skilled, the youth, and workers in southern regions. |
| JEL: | J2 J3 |
| Date: | 2026–11–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:337-en |
| By: | Morteza Meybodi (Leuven Economics of Education Research Centre (LEER), FEB, KULeuven); Vincent Vandenberghe (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how career-long emotional/interpersonal work demands are associated with mental health among adults aged 50 and older. Using retrospective work histories from SHARE combined with ISCO-4-level occupational characteristics from O*NET, we construct employment trajectories capturing cumulative exposure to emotionally/interpersonally demanding work and examine its association with later-life depressive symptoms, measured by the EURO-D scale. Our findings show that careerlong emotional/interpersonal demands are associated with a higher risk of depression after age 50, although their relative importance is modest. Career instability, such as employment gaps, redundancies, and part-time work, emerges as a stronger predictor. Pre-labour-market factors, including childhood health and educational attainment, also play a substantial role, highlighting the lasting importance of early-life circumstances for later-life mental health. |
| Keywords: | mental health, depressive symptoms, working conditions, emotional/interpersonal demands, career arduousness |
| JEL: | J14 I1 J26 |
| Date: | 2026–10–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2026021 |
| By: | Amaral, Sofia (World Bank); Borker, Girija (World Bank); Prakash, Nishith (Northeastern University); Sviatschi, Maria (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | Frontline state agents wield broad discretion over citizens’ access to public services, yet whether the attitudes shaping it can be changed among incumbent bureaucrats is largely unknown. Partnering with the Bihar Police, we run a cluster randomized trial across 417 stations and ~2, 500 senior officers evaluating a three-day expressive arts intervention grounded in Theatre of the Oppressed to improve police responses to gender-based violence (GBV). Seven months after baseline, treated officers exhibit more favorable GBV attitudes, greater empathy, and stronger legal knowledge. These translate into behavior: in victim audits one year later, treated stations are 15 percentage points less likely to blame victims, dismiss fewer complaints, and provide more referrals, while records show a 41% drop in registration delays and, over a longer horizon, increased citizen GBV reporting. Exploiting transfers, we find suggestive evidence that effects persist as officers relocate and diffuse to untreated colleagues. Junior female officers under treated seniors report lower harassment and anxiety. Attitudes shaping bureaucratic discretion are malleable, and changing how state agents exercise authority can improve service delivery and workplaces. |
| Keywords: | police, gender-based violence, state capacity, bureaucratic discretion, gender attitudes, workplace spillovers |
| JEL: | J16 K42 J45 D73 D91 C93 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp19005 |
| By: | Liatos, M.;; Tauchmann, H.; |
| Abstract: | Labor market anxiety is a major driver of psychological distress, yet mean effects might obscure significant vulnerabilities among those with low psychological reserves. Therefore, this paper investigates how the impact of job insecurity varies across the mental health distribution. Using German longitudinal data and a quantile regression framework with non-additive fixed effects, we address the endogeneity of fear of job loss by exploiting exogenous firm-specific staff fluctuations as an instrumental variable. Consistent with susceptibility theories, we find that the psychological burden is highly heterogeneous. The estimated penalty is largest at the bottom of the Mental Component Summary (MCS) distribution, reaching 8.8 points at the 10th percentile, and remains substantial between the 20th and 50th percentiles, at approximately 5–6 points. By contrast, the impact is negligible among those with better mental health. We also demonstrate that standard additive quantile fixed effects models mask this gradient, underestimating the burden on vulnerable segments. |
| Keywords: | mental health; job insecurity; workforce reduction; quantile regression; non-additive fixed effects; |
| JEL: | C26 J28 J63 I10 I14 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:26/20 |
| By: | Emilio Colombi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the response of income inequality to commodity price shocks and identifies the underlying mechanisms at play. I provide novel cross-country evidence from commodity-exporting nations, showing that positive commodity price shocks reduce labor income inequality between skilled and unskilled workers. This reduction in inequality is primarily driven by a fall in the skill premium, arising from the expansion of unskilled-labor-intensive sectors, such as construction, which grow more rapidly than skilled-labor-intensive ones, such as services. To interpret these results, I develop a quantitative multisector small-open-economy model that incorporates sectoral heterogeneity in both skilled-labor intensity and sensitivity to commodity price shocks. I use the model as a laboratory to explore the distributional impacts of various policy responses to commodity windfalls, demonstrating how saving or spending these gains can either reinforce or moderate the reduction in inequality. This analysis provides new insights into the broader economic and social impacts of commodity price shocks in emerging markets. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; Real economy and forecasting; Structural challenges; Digitalization and productivity |
| JEL: | E E3 E32 F F4 F41 J J3 J30 Q Q3 Q33 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:26-38 |
| By: | Dania V. Francis; Rob Gillezeau; Damon Jones; Angelino C. G. Viceisza |
| Abstract: | Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have played a major role in detecting direct forms of racial discrimination. In this essay, we ask whether RCTs can (or cannot) play an equally important role in the case of systemic racial discrimination. We propose a conceptual model of systemic racial discrimination drawing from prior definitions of systemic racism. We then consider a range of possibilities and limitations for how RCTs can help understand systemic racial discrimination, including: (1) the feasibility of manipulating systemic racial discrimination on a large scale; (2) smaller scale approaches; (3) conducting RCTs across different structural settings; (4) the manipulation of the salience of systemic forces; (5) the role of information in reducing systemic racial discrimination; (6) the manipulation of the salience of racial identity; and, finally, (7) examination of strategic responses to systemic racial discrimination. In discussing limitations, we point to other approaches that may fill in the gaps left by RCTs in studying systemic racial discrimination. |
| JEL: | C9 J15 J7 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35882 |
| By: | Melanie Morten; Beatriz Magaloni; Sebastián Cubillos; Alice Yiqian Wang |
| Abstract: | In 2024, 315, 000 H-2A temporary seasonal work visas were issued to agricultural workers in the US. The H-2A program is controversial: earnings are high, but critics argue that workers face poor working and living conditions and that families bear the costs of separation. We randomize H-2A seasonal visas for Mexican workers. During a single US season, migrants earn more than USD 16, 000 and send 70% of these earnings to origin households. Living standards in Mexico rise: food security increases, the probability of living in poverty falls by 10 percentage points, and families invest in home improvements, durable assets, and debt reduction, with little investment in businesses or productive assets. Migration has spillovers onto the household: the mental health of household respondents worsens and they avoid higher-risk situations such as walking at night, and intra-household dynamics change. Migrants generally report satisfaction with H-2A jobs and contracts, all report that they would migrate again, and 85% do so the following season. |
| JEL: | F22 F24 J43 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35941 |
| By: | Andrews, N. O. |
| Abstract: | For decades, the debate over American inequality has centered on a single question: how unequal has the United States become? Increasingly, the more important question is different: does it matter that some Americans are pulling dramatically away from everyone else, even as real income rises for most people? This paper argues that the United States has undergone a Great Household Divergence: four decades of extraordinary prosperity coinciding with widening disparities in household market position — disparities that shape employment, status, dignity, health, and neighborhood opportunity. Economic distance has become social distance, accompanied by rising polarization and democratic strain. Mobility eroded for large segments of the population, leaving some American communities with world-class opportunity while others resemble the developing world. This paper weaves together literatures on inequality, mobility, polarization and social policy. It argues that the prevailing policy model has focused too heavily on correcting market outcomes after the fact, and points upstream toward pre-distribution policies that shape wages, collective bargaining, state-level employment institutions and macroeconomic conditions aimed at tighter labor markets. The central implication is that social cohesion in the U.S. cannot be restored through post-tax redistribution alone. Addressing inequality is more than the simple arithmetic of redistribution; it also requires attention to social cohesion, the earning power of Americans and human dignity. |
| Keywords: | Great Household Divergence, Income and Wealth Inequality, Intergenerational Mobility, Political Polarization, Social Cohesion, Pre-Distribution, Labor Market Institutions, Monopsony |
| JEL: | D31 D63 J62 D72 J38 H23 |
| Date: | 2026–10–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2685 |
| By: | Katsuhiro Komatsu (Kyoto University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how the wealth accumulation of workers and their job search behavior influence firm wage setting. I incorporate wealth accumulation and endogenous search intensity of risk-averse workers into an equilibrium job-ladder model. The wagesensitive search of wealth-poor workers restrains wage markdowns near the bottom of the job ladder. Removing this discipline through complete markets allows low-wage firms to further push down wages, lowering the average wage and raising wage inequality. This firm-side response, which I call the insurance channel, offsets the direct consumption-smoothing gain of unemployment insurance. |
| Keywords: | Wage; Saving; Search; Unemployment; Unemployment Insurance |
| JEL: | J30 E21 E24 D83 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:1133 |