|
on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages |
| By: | Hikaru Ota (Friedrich Schiller University Jena) |
| Abstract: | This study estimates the effect of minimum wage increases on low-wage employment and working hours using an event study analysis based on 138 state-level minimum wage changes in the United States. The results show that employment declines in wage bins below the new minimum wage are largely offset by increases in employment at and above it, yielding a near-zero net employment effect. Applying the same wage bin framework to total usual weekly working hours, the analysis finds no significant reduction in total working hours. However, hours worked per worker decrease significantly in the wage bin at the new minimum wage. This pattern may reflect firms adjusting along the intensive margin, but it may also arise from changes in the composition of workers within that wage bin; the analysis cannot distinguish between these explanations. Nevertheless, the findings demonstrate that stable employment levels can mask underlying changes in hours worked. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wage, employment, labor demand, hours worked, low-wage employment |
| JEL: | J23 J31 J38 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–10–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2026-012 |
| By: | Gert Bijnens; Anders Humlum; Stijn Vanormelingen |
| Abstract: | New machinery has long been argued to raise the relative demand for skilled labor, yet firm-level evidence finds no such shift at investing firms. We resolve this puzzle by looking beyond firm boundaries. Linking Belgian data on capital investments, buyer–supplier transactions, and worker skills, we show that the skill bias of new machinery arises entirely at external suppliers. Following machinery investment spikes, purchases from suppliers raise firms’ total demand for high-STEM workers by 45%, three times the rise for other skill groups, while in-house hiring raises it by less than 5%, evenly across skill groups. This external demand comes first from machine integrators and later from complementary services such as software, and is stronger for smaller firms, lumpier investments, and rapidly advancing capital, consistent with fixed and adjustment costs of hiring high-STEM workers in-house. In a general-equilibrium model estimated on our event studies, the rise in machinery per worker from 2003 to 2021 raises relative demand for high-STEM workers by 8.8 log points and their wage premium by 3.1. Measured on payrolls alone, both would fall. |
| Keywords: | capital–skill complementarity, firm boundaries, outsourcing, investment spikes, production networks, automation |
| JEL: | E22 J23 J24 J31 L24 O33 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13019 |
| By: | Trine Schack; Jordy Meekes; César Barreto; Stéphane Carcillo; Jonas Fluchtmann; Alexander Hijzen; Benjamin Lochner; Matthew Nibloe; Rune Vejlin |
| Abstract: | We study the incidence, sources, and dynamics of low-wage employment using harmonised linked employer-employee administrative data from Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. We define low-wage employment relative to the country-specific median hourly wage and examine how worker characteristics, firm-specific wage premia, wage progression, and labour market institutions shape outcomes at different parts of the lower wage distribution. Three main findings emerge. First, worker characteristics account for most of the wage gap facing low-wage workers, though firm-specific wage premia matter too, especially at the very bottom, where they are around half as large as the worker component. These firm premia reflect both sorting across industries and pay differences across firms within industries. Second, low-wage employment is at least partly transitory, as workers at the bottom see faster subsequent wage growth and change firms more often. Third, minimum wages and marginal effective tax rates show limited systematic association with wage growth or job-to-job mobility, though higher minimum wages are linked to a smaller share of workers below 70% of the median. These patterns are broadly similar across countries and point to the joint importance of worker skills and access to higher-paying firms for improving low-wage workers' prospects. |
| Keywords: | low-wage employment, cross-country, matched employer-employee data, wage premia, taxes |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J38 J62 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26237 |
| By: | Ian Burn; Melissa D. Gentry; Joanna Lahey |
| Abstract: | Remote work is often touted as a way for disabled and older workers to remain in the labour market. Post-Covid, the incidence of remote work has increased in the UK. Following Bloom et al. (2026), we test the effects of remote work on employment for these two groups using the pandemic’s increase in work from home rates as a quasi-experiment. We compare occupations with high growth in work from home (WFH) to those with lower growth in work from home, with growth rates measured among the non-disabled or younger. We then instrument using pre-pandemic remote work scores from Dingle and Neiman (2020). We find significant evidence that rising WFH increases employment of disabled and older workers in the UK. We additionally find decreases in commute time and wages for both groups, but no effect on hours worked. |
| JEL: | J14 J22 J23 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35791 |
| By: | Julia Bredtmann; Sebastian Otten; Timo Rammert |
| Abstract: | We examine the effect of occupational deregulation on incumbent master craft workers' wages by exploiting a 2004 reform in the German crafts sector that removed the requirement to hold a master certificate for business entry in roughly half of all craft occupations. Using administrative, employee-level data and a triple-difference design, we find that the reform increased the wage premium of incumbent masters by 3% in deregulated relative to regulated occupations. The results are consistent with a scarcity mechanism whereby the decline in the inflow of newly certified masters increased the relative market value of incumbent masters. The wage premium increase is most pronounced in small firms and in East Germany, where pre-existing shortages of high-skilled labor amplified the scarcity effect. These findings suggest that deregulation may have unintended distributional consequences by reducing the private return to obtaining advanced occupational certification, thereby raising incumbent wage premia and widening skill-based wage gaps. |
| Keywords: | occupational licensing, deregulation, skill investment, skill scarcity, wage premium |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J48 L51 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26257 |
| By: | Kevin Rinz |
| Abstract: | AI mentions in US job advertisements have increased substantially since the beginning of 2024. The increase is concentrated in occupations more intensely exposed to the capabilities of large language models: one additional standard deviation of exposure is associated with a 3.1 percentage point increase in the rate at which job ads mention AI. Alongside this increase in AI mentions, more exposed occupations have seen job postings stabilize after a period of relative decline, posted wages rise, and hires and separations rise, all relative to less exposed occupations. Realized wages for new hires have risen consistent with posted wages, while wages of continuously employed workers have declined, possibly because exposed occupations have seen labor markets become less tight. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence; labor demand; skills; job postings |
| JEL: | J23 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:103850 |
| By: | Dribe, Martin (Lund University); Stanfors, Maria (Lund University) |
| Abstract: | Married men commonly earn more than unmarried. Explanations emphasize either productivity gains from marriage or positive selection into marriage. Using longitudinal data on men in Sweden 1947–2022, combining historical population records for a regional sample with full-count modern administrative registers, we analyze information on earnings and occupation for both men and their spouses. We estimate linear regression, two-way fixed-effects, event-study models, and residualized quantile regression to capture aspects of the marriage premium. We find a stable marriage premium over 70 years. While OLS estimates are substantially attenuated in fixed-effects models, indicating an important role for selection, a positive premium remains. There were large changes over time in the underlying mechanisms. Until the 1980s, the premium was highest for men with lower earnings, while this pattern reversed after 1990 when the premium was larger at higher earnings. Before 1970 there is some support for a causal marriage premium, while this changed in later periods, when there was strong earnings growth in the years leading up to marriage. The persisting marriage premium suggests that marriage is still crucial for men’ labor market outcomes. |
| Keywords: | marriage premium, register data, earnings, quantile regression, event study |
| JEL: | J12 J22 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18973 |
| By: | Holzheu, Kerstin (Sciences Po, Paris); Muñoz-Morales, Juan (IÉSEG School of Management) |
| Abstract: | Life-cycle wage growth varies substantially across countries. We examine the role of the firm productivity distribution by introducing a random-search model that disentangles firm heterogeneity, on-the-job learning, and labor-market frictions. Estimates for Brazil, Colombia, and the United States reveal two distinct disadvantages: a long left tail of low-paying firms in Brazil and a highly compressed firm ladder in Colombia. Counterfactuals show that equating each country's firm distribution to that of the United States closes most of the cross-country gap in life-cycle wage growth: Brazil's wage growth rises from 73 to 103 percent of the U.S. value, and Colombia's from 52 to 115 percent. These results are robust to alternative distributional assumptions, education residualization, and external discipline on the productivity tail. |
| Keywords: | labor markets, income profiles, developing countries |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J63 J64 E24 O11 O12 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18970 |
| By: | David Neumark; Jyotsana Kala |
| Abstract: | We provide a comprehensive analysis of the effects of minimum wages on blacks, and on the relative impacts on blacks vs. whites. We study not only teenagers - the focus of much of the minimum wage-employment literature - but also broader low-skill groups. We find no evidence that higher minimum wages reduce wage disparities. First, much of our evidence points to job loss effects from higher minimum wages are more evident for blacks - and more so for black men - but not detectable for whites. Second, in many of our analyses the effects of minimum wages are large enough to generate adverse effects on earnings (and relative earnings) of blacks. Third, given strong residential segregation by race in the United States, more adverse effects of minimum wages on blacks would fall on areas with a high black population share, and this appears to be accentuated by evidence that minimum wage effects are more adverse in areas where blacks are a very high share of the population, regardless of individual race. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wages; race |
| JEL: | J23 J38 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26239 |
| By: | Jha, Natasha (Centre for Advanced Financial Research and Learning); Abel, Martin (Bowdoin College); Piraino, Patrizio (University of Notre Dame) |
| Abstract: | We study how scheduling demands shape gig-work supply and its composition in an experiment with U.S. gig workers, eliciting reservation wages for contracts varying in advance notice, timing, and duration. No-notice contracts raise reservation wages by 13–14 percent, while outside-hours work with notice carries little penalty. Women require 5–6 percent more than men for outside-hours or no-notice work, and 8–9 percent more when combined. These gaps are largest among workers with heavy household-chore burdens and inflexible schedules. Higher-productivity workers also require larger no-notice premiums. At a given wage, demanding contracts therefore reduce labor supply and select a lower-productivity labor pool. |
| Keywords: | scheduling demands, gig economy, gender gap, reservation wages, worker selection |
| JEL: | J22 J16 J31 J41 C93 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18976 |
| By: | Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln; Jonas Jessen; Pinchuan Ong; Jessica Pan |
| Abstract: | We assess whether survey responses to hypothetical policy scenarios can recover actual labor supply responses from policy variation. We study the German Mütterrente, a pension benefit crediting parents for child-rearing, benchmarking against Artmann et al. (forthcoming). Surveying mothers and fathers about a hypothetical reform modeled on that expansion, we find that mothers expect to reduce their labor supply, with an implied marginal propensity to earn of−0.65-close to the quasi-experimental estimate of−0.54. The response is sensible across subgroups, falls mainly on the extensive margin, and spills over to fathers. In the aggregate, spousal predictions match partners' own reports. |
| Keywords: | marginal propensity to earn, hypothetical scenarios, subjective expectations, benchmark |
| JEL: | J22 H55 D84 J26 D10 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26251 |
| By: | Mantel, Isabella (FAU Erlangen-Nürnberg); Riphahn, Regina (FAU Erlangen-Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | Demographic aging causes substantial worker shortages. So far, policy debates neglect the aspect of age at labor market entry. We study the age at which young individuals first enter the labor market and how it has developed over the last four decades. Based on long-running administrative data, we describe birth cohorts from 1960 through 2000, and separately consider different types of employment entry. We investigate the entry age distribution and heterogeneities across demo-graphic groups. We find that conditional on employment, the median age of first holding a stable full-time employment increased by almost 4 years between the birth cohorts 1960 and 1995. Our decomposition analysis yields that more than one quarter of this increase is explained by higher educational attainment and the rising share of non-German workers, which appear to be the main mechanisms behind the delay in labor market entry. Additionally accounting for changed occupations, industry composition, and relative entry-level earnings explains about 40 percent of the ob-served delay in labor market entry. The role of different mechanisms varies across the types of employment entry. |
| Keywords: | demographic aging, age at labor market entry, administrative data |
| JEL: | J11 J21 I28 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18980 |
| By: | Amanda Dahlstrand; Shan Huang; Nestor Le Nestour; Guy Michaels |
| Abstract: | Many modern organizations use knowledge hierarchies, where frontline workers try to resolve tasks and pass those they cannot resolve to experts. But the implications of this organization of expertise are not well understood, especially if firm revenues depend on who resolves each task or the firm generates downstream externalities. We study a knowledge hierarchy (KH) using 500, 000 patient cases from an online primary care firm, linked to outcomes and costs across Sweden's healthcare system. We use variation in assignment arising from temporary doctor congestion, controlling for date-by-three-hour windows and flexible case characteristics. Within the KH, nurses resolve 70% of cases and pass the remainder to doctors. Relative to doctor-only care, the KH modestly increases external primary care and ED visits but has no adverse effects on hospitalizations, earnings losses, or mortality. Although the mean effect of KH on systemwide (firm plus downstream) production costs is small, this masks substantial heterogeneity. Compared to using only doctors, the savings from the firm's selective use of the KH equal 1.6% of online primary care costs. However, our main finding is that reassigning cases between the direct-to-doctor and KH routes within 15-minute windows to minimize systemwide production costs would save 6.8% of online primary care costs. |
| Keywords: | Division of Labor, Productivity, Healthcare |
| JEL: | J24 I19 L23 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26258 |
| By: | Isabella Mantel; Regina T. Riphahn |
| Abstract: | Demographic aging causes substantial worker shortages. So far, policy debates neglect the aspect of age at labor market entry. We study the age at which young individuals first enter the labor market and how it has developed over the last four decades. Based on long-running administrative data, we describe birth cohorts from 1960 through 2000, and separately consider different types of employment entry. We investigate the entry age distribution and heterogeneities across demographic groups. We find that conditional on employment, the median age of first holding a stable full-time employment increased by almost 4 years between the birth cohorts 1960 and 1995. Our decomposition analysis yields that more than one quarter of this increase is explained by higher educational attainment and the rising share of non-German workers, which appear to be the main mechanisms behind the delay in labor market entry. Additionally accounting for changed occupations, industry composition, and relative entry-level earnings explains about 40 percent of the observed delay in labor market entry. The role of different mechanisms varies across the types of employment entry. |
| Keywords: | demographic aging, age at labor market entry, administrative data |
| JEL: | J11 J21 I28 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13022 |
| By: | Masao Fukui; Emi Nakamura; Jón Steinsson |
| Abstract: | Technical change often simplifies jobs. This increases productivity, but it also makes workers more substitutable–or more "commoditized." Commoditization of labor drives down worker bargaining power: anyone can do the job, implying workers are disposable, which improves the outside option of firms and can lower worker wages. We develop a model that captures both the productivity enhancing and wage depressing effects of commoditizing technical change. Commoditizing technical change involves firms standardizing tasks. This reduces the sensitivity of output to worker quality. Firms benefit because they can more easily fill vacancies for their durable jobs. We show that our model can help explain the divergence between productivity and wages in the service sector, increasing wage markdowns despite falling local concentration, and the decline of the large-firm wage premium. |
| JEL: | E11 J42 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35815 |
| By: | David Neumark; Antonio Rodriguez-Lopez |
| Abstract: | Two prominent publications in the recent minimum wage literature argue that estimation of the employment effects of minimum wages should use "clean" event-study designs, and that doing so leads to the conclusion that minimum wages have very limited, if any, effects on employment. We explore the use of event-study designs in this context, using the event-study stacked design of Cengiz, Dube, Lindner and Zipperer (2019a) and the related local projections difference-in-differences approach in Dube and Lindner (2024), along with their same data sources and period coverage. We generally find negative and significant employment effects of minimum wages in the United States, both overall and-more strongly-in the restaurant industry. The null results in these two papers are fragile and depend critically on a number of choices regarding variables, events, sample definitions, and weighting; they are not attributable to using an event-study design. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wage; employment; difference-in-differences; event studies |
| JEL: | J23 J38 C01 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26229 |
| By: | Petter Lundborg; Adrian Nieto |
| Abstract: | We examine how early exposure to STEM professionals in the local neighborhood shapes children's long run educational and labor market outcomes. To identify causal effects, we use Swedish register data and several sources of variation in exposure to STEM qualified neighbors measured at the 100 by 100 meter grid. Exposure during compulsory education raises children's math performance, and evidence points to social ties as the main channel. It also increases the presence of boys and girls in science programs in high school and university, but mainly boys are more likely to complete a STEM bachelor degree. This gender gap persists into adulthood: STEM employment and earnings rise predominantly for boys. The results show that high skill professionals can serve as community based informal role models and that neighbors can shape long run educational and labor market trajectories. |
| Keywords: | STEM, Science, Neighbors, Role model, Human capital, Labor trajectory |
| JEL: | I2 J2 J3 O3 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26231 |
| By: | Benjamin T. Leyden; Daniela Scur |
| Abstract: | When a knowledge worker is given an AI assistant, they stop executing tasks and start delegating them. Thus, we propose that the use of AI is an act of management, which helps explain the heterogeneity in returns to AI use observed across firms. We model the return to AI as moderated by two managerial abilities: direction (how well the worker specifies what they delegate) and verification (how reliably they catch the tool's errors). As AI becomes more reliable, the skill with the higher marginal return shifts from verification to direction. To the extent that use builds skill, workers develop their managerial abilities in the normal course of work, but as the tool improves, direction will continue to build while verification will not. As increasingly fewer tasks are worth checking, the skill collapses. Workers will reach that point sooner if they only bear part of the cost of their errors. In equilibrium, the strongest verifiers tend to sort into the jobs where collapse is most costly. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, delegation, managerial ability, skill formation |
| JEL: | M54 J24 O33 D24 D83 D86 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13030 |
| By: | Yvonne Jie Chen (Asian Development Bank); Jie Gong (University of Hong Kong); Jin Li (University of Hong Kong); Zibo Zhao (Arizona State University) |
| Abstract: | While generative artificial intelligence (AI) promises productive efficiency, it can paradoxically lead to lower quality work. We conducted an experiment with professional illustrators and found that AI assistance flattens the quality curve—it accelerates initial gains but sharply diminishes the returns on sustained effort. Faced with this, a significant number of professionals made a strategic choice: they sacrificed the final quality to save time. Our finding highlights a critical challenge for generative AI, which can weaken the motivation required for creative excellence and innovation. In developing economies, where governments may seek to boost growth by using generative AI to substitute for scarce skills, our results suggest that such gains may come at the cost of the sustained effort through which higher-quality work and expertise are built. |
| Keywords: | AI;artificial intelligence;generative AI;motivation;labor productivity;technology adoption |
| JEL: | D91 O31 O33 J24 M50 |
| Date: | 2026–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:023629 |
| By: | Edoardo Di Porto; Christian Dustmann; Chiara Giannetto; Lorenzo Incoronato |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how salary caps affect retention and selection of managerial talent in the public sector. We exploit a 2014 reform in Italy that capped top public-sector salaries. Managers affected were about 5 percentage points more likely to move to the private sector. Exit propensity was especially high among executives of state-owned companies, while managers in traditional public administration largely remained in public employment despite substantial pay cuts. Exiting managers were positively selected, reducing average managerial quality in state-owned companies by about 2 percent. The reform generated modest fiscal savings of around 0.1 percent of public-sector labor costs. |
| Keywords: | salary caps, public managers, public-private mobility, state-owned companies |
| JEL: | J45 M54 J31 M52 H83 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26235 |
| By: | Radchenko, Natalia (American University, Washington DC & IZA); Vo, Hoa (American University, Washington DC) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a new approach to evaluating how household decision-making patterns shape women’s employment. It examines the role of social norms by providing a framework reflecting the trade-off between household economic surplus and the non-monetary costs of women’s employment. The framework distinguishes between regimes with different relative cost structures: husband-cost-dominant settings under stronger traditional norms and wife-cost-dominant settings under weaker norms regarding women’s work. We apply the model using Indonesian household reports on decision-making involvement. Considering both spouses’ reports provides a more comprehensive analysis than relying on wives’ reports alone, as is standard in literature: spousal reporting discrepancies are non-random, with women tending to overestimate their involvement. The results support the husband-cost-dominant model, implying wives’ employment in Indonesia is shaped by traditional norms to a large extent. The findings also suggest that the non-monetary cost of her employment plays a more significant role than the income effect. Finally, the results highlight the persistence of social norms surrounding Indonesian women's labor supply, both over time and across cohorts. |
| Keywords: | female labor supply, intra-household decision making |
| JEL: | J21 O12 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18971 |
| By: | Kowalik, Zuzanna (Institute for Structural Research (IBS), University of Warsaw); Lewandowski, Piotr (Institute for Structural Research (IBS)); Pompei, Fabrizio (Università degli Studi di Perugia); Stichnoth, Holger (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)); Szymczak, Wojciech (Uppsala University); Thil, Laurène (KU Leuven) |
| Abstract: | We study platform workers' preferences for social protection — in the form of sick pay and paid annual leave — distinguishing between workers who entered platform work out of economic necessity (the "pushed") and those attracted by its flexibility and advantages (the "pulled"). Using a discrete-choice experiment administered to nearly 800 taxi, delivery, and cleaning platform workers in Germany, Italy, and Poland, we find an average willingness to pay at 3.7% of earnings for sick pay coverage and 4.6% for paid annual leave. Preferences, however, differ sharply by motivation: pushed workers are willing to forgo on average 5.3% of earnings for sick pay, and 5.6% for paid annual leave, while pulled workers' valuations are substantially lower (3.1% and 4.2%, respectively). This difference is most pronounced among workers without access to these benefits, suggesting that the absence of protections is particularly consequential for those who entered platform work under greater economic constraint. The findings indicate that the welfare impact of extending social protections to platform workers — as proposed by the EU Platform Work Directive — might depend on the share of necessity-driven workers in the platform workforce. |
| Keywords: | platform work, willingness to pay, discrete choice experiment, social protection, job quality |
| JEL: | J32 J28 J81 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18967 |
| By: | Klaus Desmet; Dávid Krisztián Nagy; Esteban Rossi-Hansberg |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how human capital shapes the economic geography of development. We propose a model in which human capital acquisition costs vary across space, and regions with higher human capital invest more in human-capital-augmenting technology. Locations are interconnected through costly migration and trade. Using data on local income and schooling, we quantify the model at a 1° x 1° resolution globally. Over two centuries, the model mostly predicts persistence in the spatial distribution of development. Proportionally lowering education costs in sub-Saharan Africa raises local outcomes but lowers global welfare, while the same policy in Latin America improves global welfare. An alternative policy that equalizes educational costs across sub-Saharan Africa generates worse outcomes, as population shifts within the region toward less productive areas. These results are driven by the estimated negative correlation between education costs and local fundamentals, as well as spatial inefficiencies due to externalities. |
| Keywords: | human capital; geography; development; education policy; global inequality; dynamic spatial models |
| JEL: | E24 F10 I24 J24 O11 O18 O33 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:103849 |
| By: | Michael J. Andrews; Ryan R. Hill; Joseph Price; Riley Wilson |
| Abstract: | Occupation choice is a key determinant of economic mobility. This paper studies how childhood neighbors influence occupational choices and later-life earnings. Using linked historical U.S. census records for over six million boys and four million girls, we reconstruct neighborhood microgeography to identify childhood neighbors and their occupations. We find that living next door to someone in a given occupation increases the probability of working in that same occupation 30 years later by about 10 percent relative to other children on the same street. The transmission effect is higher with more intense exposure, in more connected neighborhoods, and when neighboring families are more similar. Exposure to high-income or highly educated neighbors has lasting economic effects, leading to significant gains in adult income and education even compared to other children from the same street. These findings suggest that neighborhood networks play an important role in shaping intergenerational economic mobility. |
| JEL: | J24 J62 N32 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35810 |
| By: | Robert W. Fairlie; Jane Wu |
| Abstract: | The impact of AI on the employment prospects of recent college graduates is hotly debated with no consensus on the magnitude of impacts nor even the timing of those potential impacts. Using CPS microdata, we provide the first estimates of the effects of AI on the unemployment of recent college graduates in June, July and August 2026. We provide evidence suggesting that unemployment rates are especially high for summer months and that 2026 might be the first year of widespread enough AI use in the workplace to detect impacts of AI on recent college graduates, the group argued to be most vulnerable to AI replacement. Taking an agnostic approach to defining treatment timing, we find that unemployment rates did not spike in summer 2026 relative to summer months in previous years and did not rise in a significant way relative to older college graduates or young workers without a college degree. We also provide the first analysis of an expanded definition of unemployment that includes those who report “wanting a job” which adds nearly two percentage points to the unemployment rate of recent college graduates but we find no evidence of a statistically significant increase in summer 2026 even after adding these “sidelined unemployed.” We estimate difference-in-differences and event-study interaction models using both older college graduates and young non-college graduates as comparison groups and do not find evidence of an increase in relative unemployment rates. Finally, we estimate models in which we interact 2026 unemployment with AI exposure and remote work availability by occupation and find some evidence of a positive relationship with remote work availability. |
| JEL: | J21 J24 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35796 |
| By: | Häggkvist, Martin (Department of Economics, Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | How much are employers willing to pay to sidestep employment protection? I study this in the context of seniority rules, aiming to shield tenured workers from job loss. Using detailed and unique Swedish layoff notification data matched with administrative registers, I identify the set of workers at risk of dismissal and construct counterfactual displacement lists based on the mandated layoff order. I find that workplaces with relatively more productive junior workers are significantly less likely to follow the seniority order. A one-standard-deviation increase in the relative productivity of recent hires reduces compliance by 7.7 percentage points. To circumvent the default order, employers provide higher severance pay and longer advance notice to senior workers, indicating that firms pay for the right to retain more productive workers. These results indicate that seniority rules impose efficiency costs on employers as employment protection is traded for financial compensation. |
| Keywords: | employment protection; seniority rules; productivity; severance pay |
| JEL: | J41 J52 J63 |
| Date: | 2026–09–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2026_020 |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh (World Bank); Do, Minh (University of Economics and Business, Vietnam National University, Hanoi) |
| Abstract: | Can artificial intelligence (AI) make scarce expertise more widely available in poorer countries and improve household welfare? Can it help measure welfare where surveys are infrequent? This structured critical review examines both questions and finds that the answers depend on the application and setting. Across nine selected evaluations, AI assistance raised output per unit of time by 29% on average, and the average remains positive in every reported sensitivity check. Eight tutoring comparisons give an average gain of 0.21 standard deviations on tests taken without the tool, including in poorer-country schools, but this result is less robust when higher-risk trials are excluded. Business and labor-market effects vary, and we found no qualifying causal study of a generative-AI tool’s effect on household consumption poverty in a poorer country. Measured use rises steeply with national income. AI-based models predict wealth levels more accurately than changes, and their value for targeting depends on the alternative and its cost. The review identifies promising applications for evaluated expansion, proposes a survey module, and sets out conditions for validating AI-based statistics and for assessing costs, persistence, and equity. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, poverty, inequality, developing countries, measurement, critical review |
| JEL: | O33 I32 D63 J24 C81 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18984 |
| By: | Kala Krishna; Sergey Lychagin; Lewis S. McLean |
| Abstract: | Worker effort increases contemporaneous output but may result in injury or burnout. Directing effort away from the workers most exposed to injury would reduce this risk, but information on the exposure is often hidden. We ask whether managers act on such private information, studying the NBA as a data-rich workplace. Instrumenting workload with teammate absence, we find that work causally raises injury risk, which contrasts with the spurious negative correlation commonly found in sports medicine studies. We also show that coaches rest players in response to injury risk shocks. By acting on this private information, coaches can raise player productivity. |
| JEL: | D83 J28 M54 Z22 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35803 |
| By: | Aspasia Bizopoulou; Elias Einiö; Tuomo Virkola |
| Abstract: | We study the impacts of firm-level pay transparency policy under different collective bargaining settings. We show that firms react to pay transparency requirements by reducing gender gaps, as intended by policy makers, but also by hiring fewer workers to lower-paid positions, which results in overall wage compression. Gender gap reductions are concentrated in firms under collective bargaining agreements, while hiring reductions and wage compression are concentrated in firms less exposed to collective bargaining, where employers have more discretion over individual wages. These results suggest that the effects of pay transparency on workplace inequality depend on labor market institutions. |
| Keywords: | pay transparency, wage inequality, sorting, work satisfaction, discrimination, collective bargaining |
| JEL: | J16 J31 J38 J52 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26252 |
| By: | Rajashri Chakrabarti; Philippe d'Astous; Kory Kroft; Sheisha Kulkarni; Vyacheslav Mikhed; Matthew J. Notowidigdo; Sahil Raina; Barry Scholnick |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal effects of a financial windfall on consumption, savings, and wage earnings using linked administrative data on a large sample of Canadian lottery winners. Using separate linkages of lottery winners to income tax records and credit bureau data, we estimate how lottery winnings affect consumption measured through credit card spending, savings through financial asset accumulation and debt repayment, and wage earnings from tax records. We then examine how these responses vary across the income distribution. We find that high-income individuals allocated a larger share of lottery winnings to savings and leisure, while low-income individuals spent a larger share on consumption. We illustrate the policy relevance of these heterogeneous responses through three applications: designing fiscal stimulus programs, evaluating a Universal Basic Income (UBI), and determining optimal top tax rates on wage earnings and savings. |
| Keywords: | Lottery; marginal propensity to consume; marginal propensity to save; marginal propensity to earn; consumption; saving |
| JEL: | D12 D15 E21 E62 H2 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:103885 |
| By: | László Czaller; Virág Ilyés; Gergő Tóth |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether unemployed workers searching in dense urban labor markets are better able to realize their occupational search goals. We use linked employer–employee administrative data from Hungary that record theoccupation in which unemployed workers primarily seek work and compare these targets with their subsequent occupations. We find that workers searching in denser labor markets are more likely to find employment in their targeted occupation or in some closely related occupation. These results are robust to a rich set of control variables and alternative specifications. To address potential endogeneity concerns, we use historical data on population and railway infrastructure to construct instruments for contemporary employment density. Finally, examining the role of search targets in post-unemployment occupational mobility, we find that denser labor markets are associated with greater occupational continuity among workers who seek to return to their previous occupation, while those seeking to change occupations tend to move to occupations that are more similar to their previous ones in terms of skill requirements. |
| Keywords: | Labormarketdensity, Occupationaltargets, Unemployment, Jobsearch, Matching |
| JEL: | J24 J62 J64 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2622 |
| By: | Nikita Melnikov; Carlos Schmidt-Padilla; María Micaela Sviatschi |
| Abstract: | What are the consequences of restoring state authority in territories governed by criminal organizations? Combining household surveys and administrative records with detailed maps of former gang-controlled areas, we study how El Salvador’s 2022 State of Exception, which ended two decades of gang territorial control, reshaped Salvadoran society. We find that the removal of gang control integrated previously segmented labor markets, improving mobility, employment outcomes, household income, and financial inclusion. Areas with greater pre-2022 gang exposure also experienced larger increases in business formation and property investment. However, the legacy of criminal governance persists through residence-based discrimination: employers remain less willing to hire otherwise identical applicants from former gang-controlled neighborhoods. Finally, although overall support for the crackdowns remains high, individuals who witnessed police abuse report substantially greater distrust of the police and the national government, suggesting that abuses of state authority may undermine the political sustainability of tough-on-crime policies. |
| Keywords: | crime, crackdowns, gangs, labor mobility, development |
| JEL: | K42 O17 J42 R12 J71 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_13021 |
| By: | Habtamu Beshir (UCL Centre for Longitudinal Studies); Emla Fitzsimons (UCL Centre for Longitudinal Studies); Dominic Kelly (UCL Centre for Longitudinal Studies); Lindsey Macmillan (UCL Centre for Education Policy & Equalising Opportunities) |
| Abstract: | We examine how different dimensions of adolescent development---cognitive skills, socio-emotional functioning, and mental health---are associated with educational attainment and labour-market engagement at age 23. Using the Millennium Cohort Study, we show that these dimensions are linked to distinct outcomes in early adulthood. Attention difficulties are most strongly associated with lower educational attainment, while emotional, conduct, and peer difficulties are more closely related to weaker labour-market engagement and a higher likelihood of being not in education, employment, or training (NEET). Persistent behavioural and mental-health difficulties are particularly predictive of NEET status. We further document substantial socioeconomic inequalities in educational attainment and labour-market engagement and assess the extent to which adolescent skills and mental health account for these disparities. Our findings show that different dimensions of adolescent development are associated with distinct pathways through education and into the labour market, while also contributing to persistent socioeconomic inequalities in early-adult outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Adolescent skills; mental health; educational attainment; NEET; labour-market outcomes. |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucl:cepeow:26-09 |
| By: | Gabriella Conti; Evelina Björkegren; Aline Bütikofer; Mårten Palme; Kjell G. Salvanes |
| Abstract: | This study examines the long-term consequences of neonatal health using three birth anthropometric measures - weight, length, and head circumference - and analyzes their differential associations with outcomes across the life course. Using linked Swedish and Norwegian population registers with follow-up into adulthood, we compare birth measures of singletons and twins and further estimate within-twin-pair fixed-effects models that control for shared genetic and family environmental factors. Our samples comprise up to approximately 679, 000 singletons and 10, 400 twins in Sweden, and 347, 841 singletons and 6, 762 twins in Norway, followed into adulthood. We find that different birth measures capture distinct aspects of fetal development with varying predictive validity across outcome domains. Birth length emerges as the strongest predictor of health outcomes (infant mortality, adult height), consistent with its role as a cumulative indicator of skeletal growth throughout gestation. Birth weight retains stronger associations with cognitive and educational outcomes (grade point average [GPA], years of schooling) in conditional models. Head circumference shows weak and inconsistent associations across specifications. Using within-pair head circumference differences to classify twins as symmetrically versus asymmetrically growth restricted, we find that symmetric intrauterine growth restriction is associated with substantially worse long-term outcomes than asymmetric restriction. In Norwegian twin pairs, growth restriction is associated with lower general cognitive ability (measured at military enlistment) relative to the unaffected co-twin; this within-pair deficit is more than twice as large for symmetric as for asymmetric restriction. We also document significant intergenerational transmission of birth anthropometrics, suggesting both environmental and genetic contributions. Finally, our register-based design with near-complete population coverage minimizes selection bias and attrition while providing statistical power for within-pair analyses across multiple outcomes. Exclusive reliance on birth weight may obscure important information about early-gestation developmental insults. |
| Keywords: | Birth weight; Birth length; Head circumference; Twin studies; Fetal origins; Intrauterine growth restriction; Linkage to administrative data |
| JEL: | I14 I12 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26233 |
| By: | Marco Pariguana; Diether Beuermann |
| Abstract: | Choosing a school is one of the most important decisions parents make regarding their children's human capital, yet application constraints can make observed choices an imperfect measure of what parents value. We study preferences for school effectiveness and peer quality in the centralized secondary school market of Barbados, where admissions are based on a one-shot exam and parents face a binding cap on the number of schools they can list. Exploiting a policy reform that further tightened this cap, we show that parents respond by 'skipping the impossible': omitting the most selective schools from their applications, with little change in equilibrium assignments. We then estimate preferences for school effectiveness, measured by impacts on test scores and adult wages, and peer quality under alternative behavioral assumptions. Under the truth-telling assumption that applications reveal parents' most preferred schools, we find no evidence that parents value school effectiveness conditional on peer quality. In contrast, under market-stability assumptions that allow parents to omit desirable but seemingly unattainable schools, we find that parents value both school effectiveness and peer quality. The difference arises because the most selective schools are also the most effective. Thus, approaches that interpret omitted schools as less preferred than ranked ones can understate parental demand for school effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | School choice, Secondary education, Education policy |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I28 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26230 |
| By: | Laurens Cherchye; Bram De Rock; Frederic Vermeulen |
| Abstract: | Standard household‑level data hide substantial heterogeneity in how consumption, money, and time are allocated within households. This motivates the need for measuring welfare at the individual level and a structural approach on how household data can be used to capture these differences. After documenting what can be learned from direct survey evidence, we present the collective approach as an attractive framework for modeling intra-household decision-making with preference heterogeneity, public consumption, and home production. We then survey three identification strategies that recover individual preferences and resource shares from widely available datasets: differential, revealed preference, and preference-similarity methods. Applying these tools reveals that a sizable share of overall inequality originates within households and that individual poverty rates often diverge sharply from household-level measures. Overall, our review demonstrates that measuring welfare at the individual level fundamentally reshapes our understanding of inequality, and offers practical guidance for incorporating intra-household heterogeneity into empirical welfare evaluations. |
| Keywords: | Individual welfare measurement, intra‑household inequality, collective household consumption, sharing rule, time use. |
| JEL: | D13 D31 I32 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26242 |
| By: | Orazio Attanasio; Raquel Bernal; Michele Giannola; Milagros Nores |
| Abstract: | Using child development data collected during the evaluation of an early childhood education program, this paper estimates a dynamic model of human development from ages 1 to 6. We model three latent factors—health, cognitive skills, and socio-emotional skills—and allow them to interact with each other and with multiple inputs to shape subsequent development. The richness and high-frequency nature of the data permit a flexible specification that (i) allows for complex dynamics, (ii) lets each factor con- tribute to the production of the others, (iii) permits age-varying production technologies, and (iv) treats parental investment as endogenous. We use the estimated model to identify “windows of opportunity” in which parental interventions, or programs that increase investment, are especially effective. Results indicate that developmental dynamics are richer than typically assumed, with important implications for persistence: the impact of inputs can decay or endure in ways that vary across domains and over age. Accounting for endogenous investment is consequential for inference. |
| JEL: | I15 I25 I32 J13 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35818 |
| By: | Katia Gallegos Torres; Andreas Steinmayr; Valentin Wett |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how local labor market tightness and welfare benefit levels at the time of receiving protection shape refugees' labor market integration and location choices. We exploit a sequence of reforms that generated quasi-random variation in benefit levels, together with variation in local labor market tightness across the districts and months in which refugees receive protection. We find that tighter local labor markets raise employment, while more generous benefits slightly reduce it. These employment effects persist for about 2.5 years, but both shocks have lasting impacts on internal migration. Moreover, the negative employment effect of benefits is larger in tighter labor markets. Neither shock affects the probability of emigrating from Austria. |
| Keywords: | Immigrant integration, refugees, welfare benefits, labor demand |
| JEL: | F22 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26232 |
| By: | Lyn Craig (School of Social and Political Sciences, Faculty of Arts, The University of Melbourne,); Irma Mooi-Reci (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne); Federico Zilio (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne) |
| Abstract: | This study examines how working from home (WFH) shapes time allocation, divisions of labor, and subjective time pressure within dual-earner couples. Using high-quality longitudinal panel data from Australian couples, we analyse the joint effects of partners’ WFH arrangements, distinguishing impacts by intensity and frequency of home-based work. Results from family fixed-effect models reveal that short-hours WFH is associated with increased paid work for both partners, higher total workloads, and elevated time stress. In contrast, high-intensity WFH redistributes unpaid labour more equitably when men work from home, modestly alleviating women’s time pressure, but is largely concentrated among men with high job autonomy. Gendered effects are pronounced: women’s workloads and time stress respond to both their own and their partner’s WFH, whereas men’s outcomes are largely unaffected by their partner’s arrangements. Overall, WFH does not systematically narrow gender gaps in couples; its effects depend critically on relative WFH intensity between partners. |
| Keywords: | working from home, time use, gender inequality, time stress, family arrangements |
| JEL: | D13 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2026n14 |
| By: | Kuhn, Andreas (Swiss Federal University for Vocational Education and Training) |
| Abstract: | Women have caught up significantly with men in recent decades, but occupational choices remain stubbornly segregated by gender. One particularly popular hypothesis postulates that societal gender norms are the key factor explaining this phenomenon. I attempt to test the validity of this claim as directly as possible in this paper, using a unique combination of different data sources. Data covering the full stock of apprenticeship contracts active in the school year 2021/22 allows me to construct geographically disaggregated measures of occupational segregation, and I use local results from five national-level votes on gender-related policies to construct a measure of local gender norms. The data reveal that there is a statistically significant and practically relevant association between local gender norms and the regional extent of occupational segregation, with more progressive norms associated with less segregation. However, further analyses, carried out by leveraging two distinct identification strategies, point to a small and ultimately insignificant effect of gender norms on occupational segregation once potential confounders are taken into account. |
| Keywords: | occupational choice, occupational segregation, gender norms, apprenticeship, culture, spatial analysis, language border, geographic quasi-experiment |
| JEL: | D91 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18975 |
| By: | Black, Nicole (Monash University); Ma, Bernice (Monash University); Mai, D Tung (University of Melbourne); Skeels, Christopher (University of Melbourne); Staub, Kevin (University of Melbourne) |
| Abstract: | We develop a fixed-effects estimation framework for fractional-outcome panel models with a logit conditional mean. Pairwise quasi-differencing eliminates individual effects from the moment conditions, yielding a generalized method of moments estimator that is consistent under the stated moment restrictions even when the number of time period is finite and fixed. The framework allows unrestricted dependence between individual effects and covariates, accommodates endogenous regressors through instrumental variables, and extends to multivariate shares that sum to one. Boundary observations require no adjustment, and average semi-elasticities can be estimated without recovering the individual effects. We apply the framework to Australia's National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), using HILDA (Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia) survey data for 2011-2023 and instruments based on the scheme's staggered geographic rollout. We examine how NDIS receipt affects the allocation of time across paid work, housework, disability care, and remaining activities for recipients and other household members. The estimates indicate that recipients reduce work and disability care, while other household members increase disability care. |
| Keywords: | panel data, fixed effects, fractional responses, share data, time use, disability support |
| JEL: | C23 C24 I18 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18969 |
| By: | Herbst, Chris (Arizona State University) |
| Abstract: | In November 2025, New Mexico became the first U.S. state to implement a universal, no-cost child care subsidy program. This paper estimates difference-in-differences and event-study models to evaluate the impact of universal child care on mothers' short-run labor supply adjustments. Using monthly Current Population Survey data, I find that the reform produced different responses across lower- and higher-skilled mothers. For lower-skilled mothers, the policy increased employment along both the extensive and intensive margins. Conversely, higher-skilled mothers, particularly those who are married, experienced reductions in paid work, with partially offsetting increases in school enrollment. Thus, while universal child care relaxes a binding constraint among disadvantaged families, it acts as an in-kind transfer for their advantaged counterparts. |
| Keywords: | child care, labor supply, maternal employment |
| JEL: | J13 J22 H75 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18968 |
| By: | Pierre Cahuc; Pauline Carry; Franck Malherbet; Pedro Martins |
| Abstract: | Employment protection legislation often varies with firm or establishment size and age, and many evaluations of EPL reforms exploit these thresholds. This paper develops a search-and-matching model with multi-establishment firms to disentangle direct effects from general-equilibrium spillovers. We combine the model with quasi-experimental evidence from a 2009 Portuguese reform that restricted fixed-term contracts in young establishments of large firms. Spillovers barely distort the reduced-form estimate, yet they overturn the aggregate conclusion: extrapolating the reduced-form estimate implies a 1.51% employment decline, compared with a 0.11% increase in general equilibrium. Counterfactuals show that conditioning EPL on size versus age can yield opposite welfare effects, even when employment effects are similar, and that fixed-term contract and firing restrictions must be evaluated jointly. |
| Keywords: | Employment protection legislation; general-equilibrium spillovers; fixed-term contracts; contingent regulation; directed search; structural estimation. |
| JEL: | E24 J41 J63 J68 C54 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26238 |
| By: | Alex Bryson |
| Abstract: | Most of the literature estimating the gender wage gap (GWG) in the UK uses regression techniques adjusting for a range of covariates measured in adulthood, many of which are likely endogenous. In doing so, they typically find that about half the raw gap can be accounted for by gender differences in those conditioning variables. Using data for a birth cohort born in 1958 collected prospectively across ten survey sweeps, I depart from the literature in two ways. First, I condition solely on covariates measured in childhood to minimize potential biases arising from conditioning on endogenous variables. Second, I use a range of matching estimators to recover the GWG among ‘like' men and women. I show that the raw GWG rises until cohort members enter their 40s, then falls but remains sizeable until age 63. In contrast to literature, when conditioning solely on childhood variables the covariate-adjusted GWG is similar to the raw GWG. This is the case at all ages regardless of the matching estimator I use and the set of conditioning childhood covariates. The implication is that among those born in 1958 women have lower earnings than men across the life-course which cannot be accounted for by their pre-labour market experiences. |
| Keywords: | gender wage gap; birth cohort; National Child Development Study; propensity score matching; entropy weighting; inverse probability weighted regression-adjustment (IPWRA) |
| JEL: | J16 J31 J71 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26256 |
| By: | Sang-Hyop Lee (University of Hawai`i at Mānoa); Hyun Kyung Kim (Chungbuk National University); Huixia Wang (Hunan University); Donghyun Park (The South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre) |
| Abstract: | We estimate expected financial resources in old age—including public transfers, family transfers, accumulated assets, and post-retirement labor income—and compare them with target consumption needs. The sample is divided into a reference group (individuals at or beyond retirement age) and a target group (pre-retirement individuals). Two retirement scenarios are considered: (i) a statutory retirement age of 62 for both men and women, and (ii) effective retirement ages of 66 for men and 65 for women. Results are presented by gender and place of residence. We find substantial heterogeneity in financial preparedness, with women facing significantly larger shortfalls than men. Continued work and family transfers remain critical pillars of old-age support, highlighting the transitional nature of the Republic of Korea’s welfare regime. |
| Keywords: | population aging;financial preparedness;retirement;pensions;Republic of Korea |
| JEL: | J14 H55 D91 J26 |
| Date: | 2026–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:023633 |
| By: | Pineda-Hernandez, Kevin (ULB (CEBRIG, DULBEA), UMONS (Soci&ter)); Rycx, François (Free University of Brussels); Volral, Mélanie (UMONS (Soci&ter) and ULB (CEBRIG, DULBEA)) |
| Abstract: | Although an increasing body of literature has examined the relationship between firms’ profitability and wage inequality in the context of a diverse workforce, the role of rent sharing in explaining origin-based wage differentials has yet to be explored. Our paper aims to fill this gap using detailed Belgian matched employer-employee data from 1999 to 2016. After controlling for a wide range of covariates and addressing endogeneity issues, our estimates show that the wage-profit elasticity equals approximately 3% and does not differ statistically between native and immigrant workers, be they first or second generation. However, Oaxaca-Blinder decompositions suggest that rent sharing has a significant influence on immigrants’ wages through labour market segregation. Specifically, first-generation immigrants are found to earn lower wages than natives because of their higher concentration in firms with lower profit margins. The same is true for second-generation immigrants, but almost half as much. These findings, corroborated and refined by heterogeneity tests according to gender, educational attainment and level of collective bargaining, support the hypothesis of a segmented assimilation process for immigrants. |
| Keywords: | rent sharing, natives, first- and second-generation immigrants, matched employer-employee data, wage decompositions, instrumental variables |
| JEL: | C26 J15 J16 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18981 |
| By: | Mari Tanaka; Hiroko Okudaira; Mariko Sakka; Shintaro Yamaguchi |
| Abstract: | We test whether employers can shift household allocation by targeting men as fathers. Among 1, 225 male employees in four Japanese organizations, we randomized a two-hour work-life balance training and an information treatment correcting misperceptions of colleagues' support. Training increased fathers' weekend childcare by about one hour per day in young-child households and raised spouses' reported paid work; spouses' housework also fell. Training strengthened beliefs that paternity leave benefits workplace functioning but not leave intentions. Information modestly shifted perceived support but affected neither intentions nor information-seeking. Employer training can affect household allocation without changing formal rights or work arrangements. |
| Keywords: | workplace intervention, paternity leave, household time allocation, second-order beliefs, field experiment |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J22 M54 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26248 |
| By: | Sascha O. Becker; Ana Fernandes; Nurlan Lalayev; Doris Weichselbaumer |
| Abstract: | We study gender differences in employers' responses to commuting distance using data from a large-scale correspondence test in Germany, Switzerland, and Austria. A 10 km increase in driving distance reduces women's probability of receiving an interview invitation by 1.8 percentage points, around 9 percent of the mean female invitation rate, while commuting distance has no corresponding effect for men. The gender difference is statistically significant and robust to alternative distance measures and thresholds, firms' rural or urban location, and local labor-market tightness. The female distance penalty does not vary detectably with applicants' reported marital status or the presence of children, providing no support for screening based on these observed indicators of household responsibilities. |
| Keywords: | Gender Discrimination, Commuting, Labor Market, Field Experiment, Germany, Switzerland, Austria |
| JEL: | C93 J16 J61 J71 R41 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26246 |
| By: | Mühlbauer, Sabrina (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Ziethmann, Paula (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Weber, Enzo (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "Despite widespread recognition of intersectionality in discrimination research, most algorithmic fairness evaluations remain limited to single-attribute group comparisons or individual-level prediction errors. This paper introduces a distributional approach to intersectional fairness that evaluates how machine learning models reshape the allocation of outcomes across intersecting social groups. Using large-scale administrative labour-market data from public employment services, we analyse an AI-supported job matching system with 141 occupational classes and more than three million observations. We measure intersectional disparities via Jensen–Shannon divergence and compare observed occupational distributions to model-implied allocations. We show that unconstrained models do not merely reproduce existing labour-market structures but systematically amplify intersectional disparities across occupations. Fairness-aware regularization reduces aggregate disparities but introduces a pronounced trade-off with predictive performance and reallocates distortions across occupations rather than eliminating them. Counterfactual averaging achieves substantial reductions in occupation-level disparities while preserving most predictive performance, may provide a more favourable fairness-performance trade-off in this application setting than directly constraining model outcomes. To identify localized fairness risks, we propose an occupation-level audit mechanism that flags cases with unusually large distributional shifts. Even under strong fairness constraints, a small number of occupations exhibit substantial residual distortions, indicating that fairness interventions compress rather than remove inequality. Our results demonstrate that fairness in large-scale decision-support systems must be evaluated at the level of outcome distributions. More broadly, they highlight the limits of purely technical mitigation and the need to combine fairness-aware modelling with explainability, monitoring, and human oversight in real-world deployment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| JEL: | J64 J71 C55 |
| Date: | 2026–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202606 |