|
on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages |
| By: | Horng Chern Wong; Sampreet Goraya; Anders Akerman |
| Abstract: | Does skill-biased technological change benefit less-skilled workers? This paper shows that who gains or loses from SBTC depends on where it occurs across firms and how widely it diffuses across markets. Using Swedish administrative microdata, we document that large firms became increasingly important in the market for skilled labor between 1997 and 2018. Relative to smaller firms, they grew more skill intensive and paid rising skill premia; this steepening reflected a rising large-firm wage premium for college workers but not for non-college workers. We interpret these facts through a model of heterogeneous firms with wage- and price-setting power. The quantified model infers that SBTC became increasingly concentrated among large firms. This concentration raises productivity, but widens wage inequality within and between firms. It can also lower low-skill wages and employment at the firms where SBTC occurs, with negative spillovers to low-skilled workers at competitors. The mechanism is that large firms have weaker scale responses to skill-biased shocks, limiting the expansion that would otherwise offset substitution away from low-skilled labor. Removing firm market power mitigates these losses, but does not overturn them. By contrast, broader diffusion of SBTC across industries can turn those losses into gains for low-skilled workers. |
| Keywords: | Skill-biased technological change, skill premium, wage inequality, large firms |
| JEL: | J31 J24 O33 D24 D43 J42 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26183 |
| By: | Fleck, Lara (ROA, Maastricht University); Becker, Dominik (Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB)); Fregin, Marie-Christine (ROA, Maastricht University); de Grip, Andries (ROA, Maastricht University); Pfeifer, Harald (Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB)); Weis, Kathrin (Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB)) |
| Abstract: | With the advent of generative artificial intelligence, prompting skills are becoming increasingly relevant in the workplace. Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE), we asked decision-makers on hiring in German firms in all sectors of the economy are asked to choose between job applicants with different skills bundles. Applicant profiles vary in five attributes: prompting skills, occupation-specific skills gaps, social skills, gender and salary expectations. We find that prompting skills increase applicants’ hiring probability by 4 percent and employers are willing to pay 2 percent above the average salary of a skilled worker in their firm. This WTP is modest compared to the WTP for having matching occupation-specific skills or high social skills. However, in large firms as well as firms that have adopted or are planning to adopt AI, high prompting skills increase applicant’s hiring probability by 9 percent. Moreover, prompting skills have some leverage to balance out low to intermediate social skills. Yet, higher prompting skills do not compensate for occupation-specific skills gaps. Instead of such a compensatory effect, the demand for prompting skills seems to upgrade skills requirements in jobs. |
| Keywords: | prompting skills, generative AI, discrete choice experiment, willingness to pay, skills complementarities |
| JEL: | J23 J24 M51 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18871 |
| By: | Goller, Daniel (University of Bern); Lüthi, Samuel (Swiss Coordination Centre for Research in Education); Wolter, Stefan (University of Bern) |
| Abstract: | Practical skills are widely believed to be a key determinant of labor market success, yet credible empirical evidence remains scarce, because these skills are occupation-specific, acquired primarily through workplace experience, and notoriously difficult to measure. We address these challenges using an exceptional dataset covering over 170 occupations. Our measure of practical skills is based on high-stakes expert evaluations of apprentices’ performance in occupation-specific standardized practical examinations, conducted under authentic workplace conditions and lasting from several hours to several weeks. Combined with rich administrative data, this allows us to separate practical skills from general and vocational knowledge. We show that practical skills form a distinct dimension of human capital, only weakly correlated with traditional achievement measures. Practical skills are the strongest predictor of early labor market success, consistently associated with higher first-year earnings, lower NEET risk, greater retention by the training firm, and a higher likelihood of entering tertiary education. These relationships are robust across occupational task groups and by gender. |
| Keywords: | return to skills, practical skills, school-to-work transition, human capital |
| JEL: | J24 I26 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18848 |
| By: | Fang, Tony (Memorial University of Newfoundland); Harrison, Jennifer (EM Normandie Business School) |
| Abstract: | This practitioner insights paper draws on employer perspectives to examine the challenges and opportunities of AI adoption in SMEs and to develop policy insights to enhance productivity and support sustainable careers. Policy insights are derived from a survey of 1, 700 business owners, executives, and senior managers, with particular attention to SMEs operating in Atlantic Canada. We find that employers associated AI with productivity and efficiency gains, although adoption remained patchy across firms and regions. Many reported uncertainties regarding future skill needs, emphasized compliance training, and viewed AI primarily as a productivity tool. This paper offers rare employer perspectives on the intersection of AI, productivity, and sustainable careers to inform policy. Policymakers and multiple actors across the sustainable career ecosystem can support SME productivity by strengthening digital capabilities, workforce planning systems, and regional skills ecosystems. Such efforts may help ensure that AI adoption contributes to both productivity and sustainable career outcomes. |
| Keywords: | AI, productivity, sustainable careers, SMEs, workforce development |
| JEL: | J21 J23 J24 J28 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18837 |
| By: | Bahal, Girish (University of Western Australia); Feld, Jan (Victoria University of Wellington); Shrivastava, Anand (Azim Premji University) |
| Abstract: | Preferences and discrimination are often treated as competing explanations for occupational segregation. This framing misses an important feedback. Preference-based sorting changes the sex composition of occupations; composition changes expected discrimination; and expected discrimination changes sorting. We formalize this mechanism through a general model, where occupations differ in flexibility and workers face more discrimination when their sex is underrepresented. We show two results. First, discrimination amplifies segregation caused by preferences. Second, preferences and discrimination are negatively correlated across occupations. We use the model to study anti-discrimination policies, preference-equalizing policies, and policies that make high-wage occupations more flexible. |
| Keywords: | labor market segregation, preferences, discrimination, sex, gender |
| JEL: | J16 J24 J71 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18843 |
| By: | Chung, Andy; Zhang, Junsen |
| Abstract: | This paper develops and tests a life-cycle hypothesis of sleep investment. Motivated by evidence from psychology, aging, and sleep research that the consequences of insufficient sleep become increasingly severe with age, we argue that individuals facing stronger productivity incentives should increasingly preserve sleep as they age. We formalize this idea in a simple life-cycle framework in which sleep is a productive activity that competes with work and leisure for time. We test the framework using longitudinal data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health). We focus on adolescent physical attractiveness and college education as two characteristics associated with occupational sorting and long-run productivity incentives. While both characteristics exhibit little association with sleep duration in early adulthood, their relationships with sleep become increasingly positive over the life cycle. Attractive individuals and college graduates experience substantially less negative declines in sleep duration with age and increasingly sleep longer relative to their counterparts in later adulthood. Additional analyses show that these patterns are strongest among workers and are not readily explained by mental health, sleep difficulties, social participation, or reverse causality through sleep affecting later attractiveness. More broadly, the findings suggest that differences in long-run productivity incentives contribute to divergent sleep trajectories over adulthood and support a life-cycle perspective on sleep investment. |
| Keywords: | sleep, life cycle, health investment, physical attractiveness, college education |
| JEL: | I12 J22 J24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1802 |
| By: | Ziegler, Lennart (Central European University) |
| Abstract: | How strongly do employer age preferences restrict the hiring of older workers? I study Austrian job postings, in which employers could openly state age limits until the practice was banned in 2004. Age limits were both widespread and strict: more than 30 percent of vacancies stated an upper age limit, and most caps were set between age 40 and 55. To assess the impact of the ban, I link the vacancies to administrative data on applicants and hired workers, predict each job's age requirement from pre-ban postings of the same firm and occupation and compare jobs with stronger and weaker predicted restrictions over time. After the ban, previously restrictive jobs attracted older applicants and hired older workers, with larger effects at the application stage than at the hiring stage. Wages, job duration, sickness absence and vacancy filling duration remained unaffected. In the ad texts, employers replaced direct references to young workers with attributes commonly associated with youth. Taken together, these results suggest that employers hold overly pessimistic beliefs about older workers and partially revise them once a broader pool of applicants emerges. |
| Keywords: | vacancies, age discrimination, screening and hiring |
| JEL: | J63 J14 J23 J24 J68 J71 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18866 |
| By: | Jason Sockin; Pawel Adrjan; Mária Balgová; Simon Jäger; Jonas Jessen |
| Abstract: | Discrete choice experiments are widely used to estimate workers' willingness to pay (WTP) for job amenities under the assumption that varying an attribute does not change workers' beliefs about other job attributes. We test this assumption by embedding an amenity with a known market price-a popular monthly public transport pass-in a large-scale discrete choice experiment with German workers. Many workers, including public transport users, overvalue the ticket by more than 100%, despite WTP for other attributes aligning with the literature. A complementary belief-elicitation experiment shows that advertising an amenity, such as the pass but also common amenities like work from home, causally shifts beliefs about unlisted attributes of the job. Posted wages similarly signal unlisted attributes so that wage variation, the money metric for WTP calculation, is itself contaminated by belief spillovers-such as higher pay signaling heightened stress. These spillovers imply that discrete choice estimates capture perceived bundles rather than isolated attributes, and distort current estimates of non-wage compensation and monopsony power. |
| Keywords: | Amenities, discrete choice, job postings |
| JEL: | J31 J32 J42 C83 C90 D83 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26184 |
| By: | Tiziano Arduini; Daniela Iorio; Francesca Marazzi |
| Abstract: | We study whether social standing during adolescence has persistent effects on later labor market outcomes, using relative height within school cohorts as a visible, predetermined marker. Using Add Health data, we reinterpret the height premium as positional rather than a return to absolute stature. Being one inch shorter than the tallest classmate is associated with 1.4% lower earnings for males, with no effect for females. The relationship is asymmetric, driven by a penalty for low standing, and persists into mature career. It operates through social integration rather than schooling or occupational sorting, suggesting adolescent hierarchies have long-lasting economic consequences. |
| Keywords: | height premium, adolescence, relative height, peer effects, social comparisons |
| JEL: | J31 J24 D91 I21 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12911 |
| By: | Hernaes, Øystein (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research); Kostøl, Andreas (BI Norwegian Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses data on the universe of private-sector employment in Norway up to February 2026 to examine whether AI exposure has contributed to a widening employment gap across occupations with varying AI exposure. Since October 2022, the month before ChatGPT's release, employment in the most exposed occupations has grown by 0.1 percent, against 0.3 percent in the least exposed occupations. We track this number on a monthly basis on the public dashboard \emph{kiindeksen.no}. The dashboard updates the full-distribution comparison each month as new administrative data arrives, allowing differential employment growth by AI exposure to be tracked over time. We also show that when we compare young workers by complete occupation quintiles of exposure, the relative decline of the most exposed quintile is estimated as an imprecise zero. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, labor market, employment, AI exposure, Norway |
| JEL: | J23 O33 J21 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18767 |
| By: | Lorenzo Navarini; Dieter Verhaest |
| Abstract: | When individuals enter jobs requiring a lower level of education, their returns to education may be lower. Existing studies analyze this by estimating wage penalties conditional on job match. This paper goes further by introducing a new decomposition that expresses returns using a potential outcome framework, taking into account both overeducation probabilities in the first job and the subsequent associated penalties. We embed this framework in a dynamic model of endogenous educational choices, overeducation, and wages, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity. Using Belgian data, we find that overeducated workers experience a persistent wage penalty. Yet, because the risk of overeducation is also present at intermediate education levels, its impact on average returns is often limited and can even be positive in the case of Bachelor's degree. Finally, we show that overeducation is a major source of heterogeneity in realized returns among Master's graduates. |
| Keywords: | Skill Mismatch; Overeducation; Dynamic Discrete Choice Model; Returns to Education |
| JEL: | I26 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26201 |
| By: | Luca Lorenzini |
| Abstract: | I develop a general-equilibrium oligopsony model in which firms differ in their demand for worker ability, generating worker-specific monopsony power. Taking the model to matched employer–employee data for Italy and Germany reveals ability segregation that localizes competition: firms compete most intensely with similar firms targeting the same ability segment. In the calibrated model, monopsony power and welfare losses are largest for low- and high- ability workers, who face fewer effective employers. Output losses are modest relative to standard quantitative benchmarks. Labor-market power amplifies wage inequality because wider between-market wage dispersion outweighs compressed assortative matching and top wages. |
| Keywords: | labor-market power, worker-firm sorting, misallocation |
| JEL: | J42 J31 D43 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12858 |
| By: | Lorenzo Cappellari; Bernardo Fanfani |
| Abstract: | We study how updates in pay floors set by collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) shape the wage structure in Italy. We estimate stacked event-panel difference-in-differences models around changes of contractual minima and trace distributional impacts. Pay-floor hikes of 2.2% on average raise mean log FTE daily wages by 2.2%, but effects are near zero at the 10th percentile and stronger at the 90th, implying inequality enhancing wage-rate responses. This asymmetry reflects both within-agreement heterogeneity, as lower-paid workers within CBAs respond less, and between-agreement heterogeneity, as low-wage CBAs exhibit weaker pass-through. Non-compliance with pay floors is higher in low-wage CBAs, thus it is a potential driver of asymmetries even if its level is not affected by wage updates. Pay-floor hikes reduce employment and days worked only among low-wage workers and only among full-time jobs, which may further contribute to the muted wage response in the lower tail through selection mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | collective bargaining, contractual minimum wages, wage structure |
| JEL: | J31 J38 J51 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26197 |
| By: | Hamermesh, Daniel (University of Texas at Austin) |
| Abstract: | Using diaries covering 25-61-year-olds in the American Time Use Survey 2009-24, this study demonstrates that temporal variety—doing more different things in a day—is income superior. Linking these data to underlying Current Population Surveys, propensity-score models show that people stating that they have a mobility/physical disability in each of two consecutive annual surveys undertake almost 4 percent fewer activities per day than other, demographically identical individuals. They also earn about 50 percent less. Combining the estimated impact of income on temporal variety with the implied reductions in variety incurred by those with the disability yields a monetary equivalent of lost variety exceeding that of lost earnings. Measuring disability status only once yields much smaller estimated shortfalls in temporal variety and earnings. That suggests that one-time self-reports of disabilities, which underlie the bulk of studies on the impacts of disabilities on earnings, also underestimate long-term effects. |
| Keywords: | time use, disability, torts |
| JEL: | J22 K13 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18761 |
| By: | Baumgartner, Erick (Bocconi University); Corbi, Raphael (University of Sao Paulo); Narita, Renata (PUC-Rio) |
| Abstract: | How much employment can be generated by decreasing payroll taxes? We examine this question by exploring the staggered rollout of a large payroll tax reform in Brazil. Using administrative matched employer-employee data, we find an increase of 5 percent on employment due to both firm growth and firm entry, no impact on wages and a significant increase in profits. Moreover, employment effects are driven by less concentrated labor markets, consistent with predictions from an oligopsony model. |
| Keywords: | payroll tax, employment, wages, profits, oligopsony |
| JEL: | H2 J3 J6 J42 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18838 |
| By: | Hyejin Ku; Uta Schönberg; Ragnhild C. Schreiner |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new micro-level evidence on how labor taxation shapes firm behavior, exploiting an EU-mandated payroll tax reform in Norway. Combining administrative and survey data, we find that firms facing larger tax increases sharply cut employment but also increased R&D spending, implemented labor cost-saving innovations, and adopted more automation. While these responses led to improvements in labor and total factor productivity within the firm, the firm's labor share fell. These effects persisted even after the tax hike was unexpectedly reversed three years later, suggesting a lasting shift toward more capital-intensive production in response to higher labor costs. |
| Keywords: | payroll taxes, labor costs, firm behavior, technology adoption, inequality |
| JEL: | J23 J32 H25 H32 O31 O32 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26192 |
| By: | Stephan Heblich; Marlon Seror; Hao Xu; Yanos Zylberberg |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of large, successful manufacturing plants on other local producers in China, focusing on "Million-Rouble Plants" built in the 1950s during a brief alliance with the U.S.S.R. The ephemeral geopolitical situation and the locations of allied and enemy airbases provide exogenous variation in plant siting. We find a boom-and-bust pattern: Counties hosting these plants were 80% more productive than control counties in 1982 but 20% less productive by 2010. This decline reflects the performance of local establishments, which exhibit low productivity, limited innovation, and high markup. Specialization hindered spillovers, preventing the emergence of new clusters and local entrepreneurship. |
| Keywords: | Industrial policy; regional development; manufacturing agglomeration; knowledge spillovers; China; economic history |
| JEL: | R11 R53 J24 N95 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26188 |
| By: | Dolado, Juan (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Puch, Luis (Universidad Complutense de Madrid); Wellschmied, Felix (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | Using Social Security (SocS) records covering the universe of Spanish employees and firms, we compare firms' employment dynamics between 2013-2024 to those obtained from the Bank of Spain's microdata drawn from firms' balance sheets (CBI) as well as those of U.S. firms. Compared with CBI, SocS reveals less volatile aggregate employment growth and higher job reallocation rates driven by firms' large employment adjustments. Worker reallocation in Spain remains below U.S. levels and did not decline after the 2022 labor reform. SocS also highlights the central role of small firms in Spanish job creation and documents a left-shifted firm-size distribution relative to the U.S. Start-ups entering smaller, having lower survival probabilities, and weaker employment growth among survivors all contribute to a smaller Spanish firm size. |
| Keywords: | job flows, worker flows, firm dynamics |
| JEL: | J21 J40 J60 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18755 |
| By: | Shan Huang; Renke Schmacker; Hannes Ullrich |
| Abstract: | AI can raise productivity by extracting information from rich data, yet little is known about how experts weigh AI-generated signals against established decision-support tools. We conduct a nationwide survey experiment with 372 Danish primary care physicians (21.5% of all clinics), who make diagnostic and treatment decisions on urinary tract infection vignettes before and after receiving a diagnostic signal. Holding accuracy constant, we randomize between-subjects whether the signal appears as an AI prediction or as a commonly used dipstick test result. Physicians update beliefs 41% less in response to AI than to dipstick signals, consistent with AI skepticism. Roughly one-third of physicians largely ignore the AI tool; linked administrative data show that these nonadopters exhibit lower technology use at their clinics, but that they are similar to adopters in clinical practice and prescribing measures. When physicians use the AI tool, they ignore asymmetry in informativeness between positive and negative signals and, when shown both the AI and a redundant signal, exhibit correlation neglect. These frictions in information processing lead to increased antibiotic prescribing with the AI signal in our setting. Our findings highlight the importance of training and information design for AI implementation. |
| Keywords: | Directed expert decision-making, artificial intelligence, healthcare, mental models |
| JEL: | D81 I11 D83 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0106 |
| By: | Patrinos, Harry (University of Arkansas, Fayetteville); Rivera-Olvera, Angelica (University of Arkansas) |
| Abstract: | Schooling increases earnings but getting causal information on the impact of schooling requires generating evidence from policy changes. In this paper, we estimate causal effects of additional education on earnings using new compulsory schooling law data across 16 European countries. We use recent and comparable microdata and analyze the impact of reforms on schooling and earnings. Results show that a year of education substantially increases earnings, especially for those with tertiary education. |
| Keywords: | returns to education, compulsory schooling reforms, instrumental variables, causal inference, human capital, earnings, Europe |
| JEL: | I26 J31 C26 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18859 |
| By: | Sam Hoey (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Thomas Peeters (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Stefan Szymanski (University of Michigan) |
| Abstract: | We study racial disparities in advancement to top management using the careers of 4, 770 former frontline workers from a prominent industry in England. Black workers are substantially less likely than non-Black workers to reach top managerial positions (11 versus 20 percent). We identify three sources of this gap: lower entry into management, lower promotion rates within management, and shorter tenure in senior managerial roles. Counterfactual simulations show that barriers to entering management explain most of the racial gap early in workers’ careers, while differences in promotion rates become the dominant driver later on. |
| Keywords: | racial discrimination, career progression, systemic discrimination, football managers |
| JEL: | J24 M50 M54 |
| Date: | 2026–08–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260053 |
| By: | Berfin Kardaslar; Alexander S. Kritikos; Lukas Menkhoff |
| Abstract: | In this study, we examine the relationship between personality traits, captured by risk tolerance and the Big Five traits, and firm size, as measured by the number of employees. We show that the personality of entrepreneurs matters for the size of their firm they operate. We use a novel add-on to the German Socio-Economic Panel that includes a sub-sample of owner-managers running larger firms. High levels of risk tolerance – associated with an increased likelihood of firm exit in existing research – is positively associated with firm size for entrepreneurs in the market. High scores in extraversion are also associated with larger firms. However, a high level of openness for experience, a main driver of founding ventures, is negatively related to firm size. Overall, we show that running larger firms is associated with traits that are partially different from those that increase the likelihood of entrepreneurial entry or survival. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, risk tolerance, Big Five personality traits, firm size |
| JEL: | L26 J24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1242 |
| By: | Shen Shen (Keio University); Hiroyuki Yamada (Keio University) |
| Abstract: | A stable and accessible power supply is pivotal for economic growth and development. We study the impact of nationwide residential electrification in Cambodia on sectoral employment. Leveraging annual village-level administrative data from 2013 to 2021, we estimate the employment effects of electrification using a novel difference-in-differences estimator designed to accommodate staggered adoption and treatment-effect heterogeneity across groups and over time. In our preferred specification, electrification reduced agricultural employment by around 2.4 percentage points in the long run but raised service employment by only 1.5 percentage points; the agriculture-to-services transition was also more pronounced among working-age women. The magnitude of these estimates is substantially smaller than those reported in earlier studies, consistent with a pattern of premature deindustrialisation in which electrification induces only limited structural transformation. The modest inter-sectoral shift in labour appears to operate through a mix of channels, including agricultural productivity, labour demand, investment in human capital, and migration, although the contribution of each channel, considered in isolation, is minor. Our findings highlight that agrarian workers who detach from the labour market may not necessarily re-enter it when complementary markets and demand are absent. We further underscore the importance of comparing model estimates across alternative constructions of the treatment variable, as the novel estimator we employ permits continuous, discrete, or binary treatments. |
| Keywords: | Electrification; Sectoral Employment; Labour Reallocation; Premature Deindustrialisation; Cambodia |
| JEL: | O22 O14 J21 O53 |
| Date: | 2026–07–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:dp2026-016 |
| By: | Marco Caliendo; Katrin Huber; Ingo Isphording; Jakob Wegmann |
| Abstract: | We study the extent, correlates, and consequences of reporting bias in survey wages using German linked survey-administrative data (SOEP-CMI-ADIAB). Survey wages differ systematically from administrative records: mean survey wages are 7% lower, and discrepancies follow a mean-reverting pattern. Individual characteristics explain little of the reporting bias, whereas firm context explains most of the variation. Since neither data source alone is sufficient, we construct a hybrid wage that combines their respective strengths. Measurement choice matters, but in ways that depend on how administrative top-coding is handled across the full wage distribution: when wages are outcomes, censoring administrative wages at the assessment limit understates returns to education by 4-11% and the gender wage gap by up to 23%, while imputation reverses the bias for returns to education. When wages are regressors, wage-satisfaction gradients are 9-28% steeper with survey than with administrative wages below the assessment limit, a pattern inconsistent with classical attenuation bias and pointing to non-classical, context-dependent misreporting. We provide guidance for choosing between administrative, survey, and hybrid wages depending on the application, with lessons that extend to any setting where self-reported wages are collected alongside top-coded administrative records. |
| Keywords: | reporting bias, measurement error, wage, income, administrative data, survey data, data linkage |
| JEL: | J30 C81 D31 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26193 |
| By: | Hiroyuki Yamada (Keio University); Linda Agnes Kursim (Keio University); Midori Matsushima (University of Tsukuba); Atsushi Nakagomi (Chiba University); Takahiro Tabuchi (Tohoku University) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the causal impact of subjective AI-induced job replacement anxiety on work motivation, turnover intentions, and mental well-being among Japanese workers. Integrating task-based theory, efficiency wage theory, and health capital models, we formalize the fear of future replacement as a microeconomic friction. To address endogeneity, we employ a simultaneous ordered probit framework using the ILO’s Global Index of Occupational Exposure and Japan’s Automation Risk Index as instrumental variables. Results reveal that AI anxiety significantly erodes work engagement and meaningfulness. Critically, AI anxiety heightens turnover intentions for the full sample, strictly aligning with theoretical predictions. However, we identify a non-monotonic generational pattern: middle-aged workers exhibit a defensive “lock-in†effect, whereas younger and older cohorts show increased mobility. Furthermore, mental health deterioration is concentrated among younger and self-employed individuals. These anticipatory psychological frictions distort labor incentives long before actual displacement, highlighting the need for human-centered AI policies. |
| Keywords: | Generative AI, Work Motivation, Turnover Intention, Mental Well-being, Japan |
| JEL: | D80 J24 J63 I31 C36 |
| Date: | 2026–07–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:dp2026-015 |
| By: | Thomas Peeters (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Jan C. van Ours (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | We examine worker-to-firm matching in a high-wage international labor market encompassing nine European countries. Employment matches are ranked along two key dimensions: worker productivity, defined by contributions to physical output, and firm productivity, measured by the ability to generate revenue from that physical output. We find a strong and significant positive rank correlation between these two measures, both within and across countries. This evidence of `positive assortative matching' suggests that labor market frictions do not prevent high-productivity workers from matching with high-productivity firms across Europe. Both workers' initial job placements and their subsequent mobility within countries and across countries reinforce this pattern. |
| JEL: | J24 J63 Z22 |
| Date: | 2026–08–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260054 |
| By: | Andreas Haller; Stefan Staubli |
| Abstract: | The central trade-off for designing Disability Insurance (DI) is between providing insurance to those in need while maintaining incentives to work. This paper develops a novel revealed-preference approach to identify the insurance value of DI benefits. We show that comparing the DI take-up response to a change in benefits versus a change in wages identifies the insurance value. Implementing our framework in Canada, we estimate that increasing DI benefits by $1 creates an additional disincentive cost of $0.60 but creates an insurance value of $2.20. Thus, our approach suggests that DI benefits are not overly generous in the Canadian context. |
| Keywords: | Disability insurance, take-up, benefits, policy reform. |
| JEL: | H53 H55 J14 J21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsi:irersi:26 |
| By: | Aleman-Pericon, Christian (NYUAD); Mimani, Pranav (NYUAD); Santaeulalia-Llopis, Raul (NYUAD); Wasmer, Etienne (NYUAD and LISER) |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the belief that the mix of employer and employee social security contributions is neutral for employment and equilibrium wages. We establish the conditions required for neutrality across competitive settings, institutional minimum wages, progressive taxation, and search-and-matching frictions. We show that statutory invariance breaks down due to an asymmetry in the tax wedge operating almost identically across all models. Tax neutrality is restricted to a knife-edge case that does not hold in modern labor markets. Statutory non-neutrality in the labor market is therefore relevant quantitatively because it arises as soon as marginal tax rates are above 20\%. This has implications for designing contemporary welfare and workfare policies. |
| Keywords: | labor taxes, tax incidence, employment, search models |
| JEL: | H22 J32 J38 J64 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18850 |
| By: | Nobuhiro Abe (Bank of Japan); Ryuichiro Hirano (Bank of Japan); Sohei Kaihatsu (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | What prevents productivity gains from translating into wages? This paper examines the roles of deflation and labor market frictions, with particular emphasis on job security, in driving the widening wage-productivity gap. Our empirical analysis shows that wage-setting in Japan was rigid in both upward and downward directions during the deflationary period, with upward rigidity being more pronounced. These wage freezes suppressed wage growth and contributed to the widening wage-productivity gap. Using a heterogeneous-firm general equilibrium model, we show that downward nominal wage rigidity, together with deflation and an emphasis on job security, suppresses wage growth and widens the wage-productivity gap by inducing firms to impose larger wage markdowns. Alleviating these factors raises not only wages but also aggregate productivity through labor reallocation across firms. |
| Keywords: | Wage-Productivity Gap; Nominal Wage Rigidity; Trend Inflation; Reallocation Effect |
| JEL: | E24 E52 J30 |
| Date: | 2026–08–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp26e12 |
| By: | Hattori, Keisuke |
| Abstract: | Organizations invest in cohesion so that team members care about one another's outcomes, yet such concern may affect not only how much members work but also what they work on. We study this distinction in a team-production model in which members allocate effort between safe routine work and risky experimentation. Each member values a teammate's payoff and is risk averse. Greater mutual concern raises the return to contributing to team output but magnifies the payoff risk that experimentation imposes on teammates even more. As a result, members work harder while experimenting less. Expected team output can fall even as total effort rises and can be U-shaped in the degree of mutual concern. Under a material-payoff criterion, the welfare-maximizing degree of mutual concern is generally interior. The same mechanism implies that larger teams can be more diligent yet less experimental when concern toward each teammate remains fixed. With heterogeneous exposure to team performance, more exposed members work harder but experiment less; when experimental authority must be concentrated in one member, assigning it to the less exposed member yields higher expected output. Finally, the core diligence--conservatism mechanism survives when experimental output is only partially shared across teammates, while differentiating experimental approaches encourages experimentation. Mutual concern therefore affects not only how hard team members work but also how they allocate initiative inside teams. |
| Keywords: | team production, other-regarding preferences, experimentation, risk taking, organizational design |
| JEL: | D23 D81 J24 M54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:342603 |
| By: | Cevat Giray Aksoy; Nicholas Bloom; Steven Davis; Victoria Marino; Cem Özgüzel |
| Abstract: | Remote work has expanded rapidly, but the value of regular in-person contact remains unclear. We report a randomized controlled trial in which a large multinational randomly assigned 248 customer-service employees to remain fully remote or to work at the office together one day a month. Monthly office days gradually increased productivity, with treated employees handling 7.8% more calls per hour in the post-intervention period. Office days also strengthened workplace communication: treated employees spent 36 additional minutes communicating with colleagues in the week after an office visit, were more likely to report receiving manager feedback, and employee pairs randomly assigned as desk neighbors were 11 percentage points more likely to communicate afterward. In addition, monthly office days reduced attrition by a third. The resulting gains in productivity and retention generated a benefit-cost ratio of about 5:1. These findings show that limited, coordinated in-person contact can improve communication, performance, and retention in remote teams. |
| Keywords: | remote work, productivity, retention |
| JEL: | M54 J24 J63 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26177 |
| By: | Lorenzo Cappellari; Tommaso Colussi; Marco Ovidi |
| Abstract: | We study how committee dynamics affect the recognition of academic excellence and its consequences in the labour market. Using administrative records from a major Italian university and exploiting exogenous variation in the gender composition of graduation committees, we show that equally prepared female graduates are significantly less likely to receive laude honors when evaluated by male-majority committees, while males are unaffected. The effect is concentrated among students advised by female or early-career faculty and disappears when a woman chairs the committee, pointing to the role of authority and influence in deliberations. We show pre-defense gender gaps in adivsors' official laude requests in male-majority committees, consistent with nominations responding to expected committee support. Gaps in academic distinction translate into meaningful entry-wage penalties, contributing to gender gaps at labor-market entry. |
| Keywords: | Gender bias, academic evaluation, labor market outcomes |
| JEL: | J16 I23 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26194 |
| By: | Nils Wehrenberg |
| Abstract: | This paper examines labor market spillover effects of expansions in publicly subsidized child care for children under the age of three. Using German administrative data, I exploit two major reforms that generated cross-county variation in the expansion of early childcare. I implement a matched Difference-in-Differences design to identify causal effects. The results show that counties that experienced a sudden and sharp increase in early childcare cover age had a 0.55 percentage points higher employment rate than comparable control counties seven years after the expansion. Excluding mothers and childcare workers, who are directly affected by the childcare expansion, does not significantly reduce the estimated effect. This suggests the presence of labor market spillover effects beyond the directly affected groups. Additionally, the employment effect is not driven by migration, but by the existing local work force. |
| Keywords: | early childcare, local labor markets, local labor market spillovers |
| JEL: | J13 J21 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bav:wpaper:249_wehrenberg.rdf |
| By: | Bishop, Menna (University of Warwick); Moneke, Niclas (University of Oxford); Zipfel, Céline (House of Sustainable Society (HoSS)) |
| Abstract: | Towns and cities create jobs and income. Can the arrival of new jobs also create a town? We study large agro-industrial labour demand shocks in rural sub-Saharan Africa: flower farms in Kenya. Rising production costs in Europe generate a boom in Kenyan cut-flower export production, providing stable wage jobs for mostly low-skilled women. We exploit the specific requirements of cut-flower production to track the arrival and growth of greenhouses over the last two decades. We find large increases in wage employment and home-to-market transformation within agriculture, especially for women. Urbanisation unfolds: population growth and in-migration are flanked by an emerging private rental market for housing. Housing quality and infrastructure access improve, wealth accumulates. Educational investments increase while fertility decreases. Suggestive evidence highlights that the resulting towns initiate occupational change, motivate forward-looking investment and even survive flower farm closures – indicating towns that can sustain themselves as centres of economic activity. |
| Keywords: | Town formation; wage employment; agro-industry; Kenya |
| JEL: | J21 O14 O18 Q13 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–08–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:hamisu:2026_004 |
| By: | Henrik Guhling; Fabian Herweg |
| Abstract: | We propose a controlled and incentive-compatible design to study racial bias in team-selection decisions. In an online experiment, participants select a soccer lineup from fictitious players whose objective quality is described by numerical attributes. For each player profile, we randomly assign an AI-generated portrait depicting either a Black or a White player, allowing us to isolate the effect of racial appearance. Overall, we find no systematic evidence that White player versions are selected more frequently than otherwise identical Black versions. We also compare generic-team and national-team framing, but find no systematic amplification of racial bias. |
| Keywords: | incentivized experiment, hiring and selection, racial discrimination, soccer |
| JEL: | C91 D91 J15 J71 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12914 |
| By: | Loren Brandt; Chaoran Chen; Xiaoyun Wei |
| Abstract: | Structural transformation can affect not only where people work, but also whether they participate in market work. We study this margin in China, where rapid movement out of agriculture coincided with a large decline in labor force participation. Using census and rural household data, we show that the post-2000 decline was concentrated among rural indi- viduals and broad-based across demographic groups and regions. We develop a quantitative model in which rural household members choose between market work and home production, subject to mobility barriers. Quantitatively, the model closely matches the observed decline without targeting it: agricultural productivity growth releases labor from agriculture and substantially reduces participation, while non-agricultural productivity growth only partially offsets this effect, as mobility barriers limit labor reallocation. |
| Keywords: | labor force participation, home production, structural change, labor supply, labor mobility, within-household labor allocation, productivity growth, China |
| JEL: | E02 E13 J21 J22 O11 O14 O41 |
| Date: | 2026–08–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-826 |
| By: | Ralph De Haas; Victoria Baranov; Ieda Matavelli; Pauline Grosjean |
| Abstract: | We examine how masculinity norms—the social expectations about how men should behave—predict economic, health, and political outcomes. We field the Global Masculinity Survey, covering 125, 000 individuals across 70 countries, to measure adherence to core masculinity norms. Economically, men who adhere more strongly to these norms supply more labor, earn more, and sort into traditionally masculine occupations. However, they take greater health risks and report poorer mental health. Politically, they express stronger support for strongman authoritarianism and military rule. Adherence to masculinity norms is stronger among men exposed to war or economic recession during their impressionable years. |
| Keywords: | masculinity, gender norms, gender gaps, labor supply, health, political preferences |
| JEL: | D91 I12 J16 J24 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12906 |
| By: | Sylvina Porras (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Mauricio Suárez Cal (Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Okun’s law, which examines the relationship between unemployment and economic growth, has been the subject of extensive research since Arthur Okun’s seminal contribution, which relied on three single-equation models: the differences model, the gap model, and the trend-adjusted elasticity model. The Okun coefficient derived from these single-equation approaches summarizes in a single value the aggregate effects of economic growth on different labor market variables, but does not allow one to identify what's behind the law. This article proposes an alternative framework for studying the unemployment–growth relationship by estimating a multi-equation system that captures the dynamics of the labor market, identifying the differentiated effects of economic growth on different labor market variables. Through a simulation exercise, this method shows the specific channels through which economic growth affects unemployment, thereby providing valuable insights for the design of more effective public policies. We apply this new approach to Uruguay, a country that exhibits a statistically significant Okun relationship, though one that is relatively weak compared with advanced economies. The results show that economic growth has a direct impact on employment, labor supply, and wages, and through wages, it has an indirect impact on employment and labor supply. The combination of all these effects is summarized in a weak reaction of unemployment to changes in economic activity, and this is because in that country, labor supply exhibits strong procyclical behavior, which partially reduces the strong reaction of employment to economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Okun's law, Unemployment, Employment, Labor supply, Economic growth, ARDL |
| JEL: | C32 E24 J21 J23 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-10-26 |
| By: | Claudia Curi; Andreas Dibiasi; Francesco Nicolini; Matteo Ploner; Mirco Tonin |
| Abstract: | Using original survey data from working-age individuals in Northern Italy, we study longevity beliefs and other key knowledge components relevant for retirement decisions. We find substantial dispersion in population longevity beliefs, with 40% of individuals misestimating life expectancy by more than five years, and highly fragmented knowledge across domains. Providing actuarial life expectancy information – tailored by age, gender, and county of residence – does not affect beliefs about individuals’ own longevity or retirement plans, reflecting a disconnect between beliefs about one’s own longevity and that of others. We compare our results with forecasts provided by 262 academic experts. On average, experts accurately anticipate the levels and correlations of longevity literacy with other knowledge components, but they mispredict a strong updating response of own longevity expectations to the provision of population information that deviates markedly from what we observe in the data. |
| Keywords: | subjective longevity, expert forecasts, financial literacy, retirement |
| JEL: | D83 J26 D15 G50 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12907 |
| By: | Anne Brockmeyer (World Bank); Francois Gerard (University College London); Gabriel Ulyssea (University College London); Linda Wu (University of British Columbia); Marcelo Bérgolo (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Rodrigo Ceni (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Benard Kirui; Andrea López-Luzuriaga (Inter-American Development Bank); Leonardo Fabio Morales (Banco de la República Colombia); Andrea Otero-Cortés (Banco de la República Colombia); Nadine Riedel (University of Münster); Matías Tapia (Banco Central de Chile); Tanisa Tawichsri (Bank of Thailand); Verena Wiedemann (Wolrd Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies formal employment dynamics using linked employer–employee data from eight countries spanning a wide income range from Kenya to Chile. First, we show that formality rates increase with development, both between and within countries, because more workers enter the formal sector, not because they spend more time in formal jobs. Second, formal labor market fluidity increases with development, as workers hold more formal jobs, spend less time in each job, and less time between jobs. Third, greater fluidity is associated with higher life-cycle wage growth, which is largely accounted for by within- rather than between-firm wage gains. |
| Keywords: | Formal employment, Labor market fluidity, Economic development |
| JEL: | J46 J63 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-06-26 |
| By: | Rakesh Banerjee (University of Exeter Business School); Tushar Bharati (Department of Economics, University of Western Australia); Swami Jishnurupananda (Ramakrishna Mission Vidyamandira, Howrah, India) |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between capital intensification and female employment outcomes. Using panel data on more than 25, 000 manufacturing firms across over $100$ countries, we document a robust empirical regularity: as firms become more capital intensive, they employ fewer female workers and more male workers. We further substantiate this relationship using a natural experiment that exogenously altered establishments' access to capital. Exploiting changes to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) regulations in India during the 2000's and combining them with more than 15 years of data from the Annual Survey of Industries, we find that the liberalization of FDI rules led to substantial increases in capital intensity and male employment but declines in female employment and the female wage bill. |
| Keywords: | foreign direct investment, capital intensifcation, U-shaped female labor force participation |
| JEL: | J3 J4 O1 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:26-05 |
| By: | Joan Vilá (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Marcelo Bérgolo (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía; Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Guillermo Cruces (Universidad de San Andres) |
| Abstract: | Standard welfare evaluations of means-tested transfers typically treat eligibility enforcement as affecting only households directly exposed to the rule. We show that this direct-only approach is incomplete when enforcement events transmit information through workplace networks, inducing other beneficiaries to adjust formal employment and reported earnings. We study Uruguay's AFAM-PE conditional cash transfer, in which household income eligibility is verified monthly using administrative records of formal earnings and households exceeding the threshold may lose benefits, while most beneficiaries are largely unaware of the income rule. Linking program records, social security employment histories, and firm identifiers, we build workplace networks defined six months before each peer's exposure to enforcement and identify spillovers using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design that exploits quasi-random variation in whether a peer crosses the income threshold. Coworkers of peers just above the cutoff reduce registered labor earnings by 20\%, and the corresponding fuzzy-RD estimate implies a decline of about one-third of baseline earnings in response to a peer's suspension. These effects emerge within two months and persist for at least 12 months. The response operates almost entirely on the extensive margin of formal employment, and most of the decline reflects transitions to informal work rather than exit from the labor force. Spillovers are concentrated in small firms and among similar coworkers, are nearly three times larger when the suspended peer actively contacted the program's support service, and are absent among non-beneficiary coworkers. This pattern is consistent with information transmission as the main channel. Incorporating these indirect responses lowers the estimated MVPF of the program as implemented with enforcement from 0.53 to 0.36. Because the same information channel operates wherever means-tested programs are enforced through records of formal earnings, evaluations that count only directly exposed households systematically understate the cost of enforcement. |
| Keywords: | Social assistance, Income-testing, Enforcement spillovers, Peer effects, Workplace networks, Informality, MVPF |
| JEL: | H53 H75 I38 J13 J22 J46 O17 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-09-26 |
| By: | Sondermann, David; Petrakis, Corinne |
| Abstract: | We estimate the cyclical response of labour force participation to growth shocks across EU regions. We use a shift-share instrumental variable approach and local projections on EU Labour Force Survey microdata covering 15 countries and 114 regions over 2000–2020. The aggregate labour force participation rate is remarkably resilient, a clear contrast to the highly cyclical participation rate documented for the U.S. However, this resilience masks pronounced demographic heterogeneity. Men’s participation declines significantly while women’s remains stable, reflecting sectoral segregation and the added worker effect. Young workers exhibit the most persistent responses, with effects lasting up to eight years, consistent with hysteresis through human capital erosion. Less-educated and non-native workers bear disproportionate employment costs. The findings imply that aggregate slack measures may miss important distributional dimensions relevant for monetary, fiscal, and structural policy. JEL Classification: J21, E24, E32, R23 |
| Keywords: | Bartik instrument, demographic heterogeneity, labour force participation rate, local projections |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263275 |
| By: | Taghizadeh, Rahim; Babazadeh Behestani, Salar; Arabsheibani, G. Reza |
| Abstract: | Despite extensive research, a consensus remains elusive regarding the optimal method for measuring the effects of technological change and innovation on employment. This study introduces a Technological Change Composite Indicator (TCI), constructed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to synthesize seven firm-level innovation metrics. This methodology mitigates issues associated with multicollinearity in regression analyses involving correlated variables. The proposed TCI serves as a proxy for technological change to examine its association with employment in manufacturing sectors across European Union countries. Applying the TCI to a pooled cross‑section of ten European countries and seventeen manufacturing sectors (170 observations) with country fixed effects and a one‑year time lag, we find that a one‑unit increase in the TCI corresponds to a 0.58% higher employment level. The association is positive and statistically significant, indicating that a multidimensional measure of technological change outperforms traditional single proxies such as R&D expenditure or patent counts. The TCI provides policymakers and industry stakeholders with a novel framework for assessing how a broad portfolio of innovation activities—including machinery acquisitions, external knowledge, intellectual property rights, and both product‑ and process‑oriented efforts—relates to manufacturing employment. By moving beyond narrow indicators, our approach offers a more reliable empirical basis for understanding the employment implications of technological change, including emerging technologies such as AI. |
| Keywords: | composite indicator;latent approach;technological change;employment;manufacturing industry;PCA analysis;regression method |
| JEL: | O33 J23 O14 |
| Date: | 2026–07–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140361 |
| By: | Jan van Ours (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Martin van Tuijl (Tilburg University) |
| Abstract: | A penalty shootout in professional football is a tie-breaking sequence of penalty kicks. A penalty kick is a shot taken from the penalty mark, at a distance of 11 meters (12 yards) from the goal line. Only the opposing goalkeeper may attempt to prevent a score. Penalty shootouts allow for the study of the relation between performance outcomes and psychological pressure. Psychological pressure may be influenced by whether or not a team starts the sequence and may be present at individual kicks that are potentially decisive on the outcome of the shootout. This paper presents an analysis of penalty shootouts in matches for the Dutch cup competition over a period of 59 seasons. We analyze the outcomes of 291 shootouts and 2, 680 individual penalty kicks from 262 of those shootouts. There is evidence of a first-mover advantage but this materializes in the early part of the sample period and not in recent years. Moreover, penalty kicks are more likely to fail under pressure. |
| Keywords: | organisational failures, blame, experiment, mistakes, lying |
| JEL: | C20 D91 J24 Z20 |
| Date: | 2026–08–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260052 |