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on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages |
| By: | FUKAO, Kyoji; IKEUCHI, Kenta; NAGAYA, Yoshiaki; PERUGINI, Cristiano; POMPEI, Fabrizio |
| Abstract: | This study provides an empirical assessment of the relationship between automation risk and labour market performance. To this aim, we use as a key original information the Automation Risk Index (ARI), a new dataset that quantifies the exposure of Japanese occupations and industries to artificial intelligence and robotic technologies at a highly disaggregated level. Our findings indicate that a higher intensity of innovative capital—including ICT infrastructure, AI technologies, and robotics—is associated with lower employment and wage levels. At the same time, these adverse effects are considerably attenuated in industries where occupations face a lower risk of automation, with the mitigating impact being particularly evident for highly educated, male, and younger workers. Overall, the evidence points to the importance of both reduced automation exposure and complementarities between workers' skills and advanced technologies in sustaining workers' bargaining position and limiting the negative labour market consequences of technological change. |
| Keywords: | AI and Robotics, Automation Risk, ICT Capital, Labour Market |
| JEL: | J23 J24 J31 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hitcei:2026-03 |
| By: | Cantarella, Michele (Technical University of Denmark - DTU); Molinari, Giuseppe (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia); Strozzi, Chiara (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how Artificial Intelligence reshapes the human capabilities that jobs require. Using longitudinal O*NET data for the U.S. labour market over 2011–2025, we distinguish among three types of human capabilities - abilities, skills, and knowledge - and construct two measures of human capabilities’ exposure to AI: one based on observed progress in Generative AI benchmark performance and one based on the broader evolution of AI-related scientific and public attention. We document a dual pattern. Within occupations, greater AI exposure is associated with higher proficiency requirements for selected capabilities. At the occupational level, more exposed occupations exhibit a compression in the overall breadth of capabilities required. Together, these findings suggest that AI is driving a process of occupational restructuring, leading to more specialized and less diverse capability profiles embedded in jobs. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, AI exposure, skill reallocation, task content, deskilling |
| JEL: | J24 J21 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18751 |
| By: | Annalisa Tassi; Lieke Voorintholt |
| Abstract: | In recent decades, volunteering has expanded from completely unpaid work to the possibility of receiving a small (tax-free) monetary compensation for the activity performed, with the goal of stimulating these activities. Since the relationship between monetary compensation and prosocial behavior may differ from standard labor market settings, the effectiveness of monetary and tax incentives in this context is an empirical question. Using data from German income tax returns, this paper investigates the effects of changes in monetary compensations on the duration of voluntary work, donations, and market labor income of paid volunteers. Our empirical analysis leverages a German policy change from 2013 that increased the tax-free threshold for volunteer compensations. Following a difference-in-differences approach in combination with a duration model, we do not find evidence that affected volunteers change the number of years they spend in a certain volunteer position. Our results also show that the compensation increase has no spillover effects on labor earnings or donations. Combining our null findings and insights from our theoretical model, we suggest exploring non-incentive-based measures rather than higher compensations to stimulate paid volunteering. |
| Keywords: | Paid volunteering, volunteer duration, tax-free compensation, policy change, labor supply, donations |
| JEL: | D11 D12 D64 H24 J22 J38 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fbk:wpaper:2026-03 |
| By: | Johan Hombert; Adrien Matray |
| Abstract: | Innovation booms are often fueled by easy financing, allowing new technology firms to pay high wages that attract skilled labor. Studying the information and communication technology (ICT) boom in the late 1990s, we show that high-skill workers who joined the ICT sector during the boom experienced sizeable long-term earnings losses. These earnings patterns stem from accelerated skill obsolescence rather than worker selection or the subsequent bust in the ICT sector. Moreover, during the boom, financing disproportionately flowed to firms whose workers would later experience the largest productivity declines, amplifying the negative effect of labor reallocation on aggregate human capital accumulation. |
| Keywords: | innovation; human capital; financing |
| JEL: | J24 O33 J31 G24 |
| Date: | 2026–07–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:103489 |
| By: | Jonathan S. Hartley; Morris M. Kleiner |
| Abstract: | Relatively little is known about occupational licensing across nations. We assemble harmonized estimates of licensing prevalence for 44 countries using nationally representative surveys, including new surveys for previously unstudied countries. Licensing ranges from roughly 14 percent of workers in Denmark to more than 40 percent in India and South Africa. Licensed workers earn 6 to 19 percent higher wages than comparable unlicensed workers across specifications. Licensing prevalence is negatively associated with GDP per capita and governance quality, and positively associated with informal employment, suggesting occupational licensing is intertwined with labor market efficiency, formalization, and long-run economic development. |
| JEL: | J31 J44 J48 J8 K23 O15 O43 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35424 |
| By: | Pawel Adrjan; Maria Balgova; Simon Jager; Jonas Jessen; Jason Sockin; Simon Jäger |
| Abstract: | Discrete choice experiments are widely used to estimate workers' willingness to pay (WTP) for job amenities under the assumption that varying an attribute does not change workers' beliefs about other job attributes. We test this assumption by embedding an amenity with a known market price — a popular monthly public transport pass — in a large-scale discrete choice experiment with German workers. Many workers, including public transport users, overvalue the ticket by more than 100%, despite WTP for other attributes aligning with the literature. A complementary belief-elicitation experiment shows that advertising an amenity, such as the pass but also common amenities like work from home, causally shifts beliefs about unlisted attributes of the job. Posted wages similarly signal unlisted attributes so that wage variation, the money metric for WTP calculation, is itself contaminated by belief spillovers — such as higher pay signaling heightened stress. These spillovers imply that discrete choice estimates capture perceived bundles rather than isolated attributes, and distort current estimates of non-wage compensation and monopsony power. |
| Keywords: | amenities, discrete choice, job ads |
| JEL: | J31 J32 J42 C83 C90 D83 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12794 |
| By: | Fang, Tony (Memorial University of Newfoundland, NL, Canada); Lin, Carl (Bucknell University Lewisburg, PA, USA); Liu, Qing (Hefei University of Technology, Anhui, China) |
| Abstract: | We construct city–year measures of AI labor demand from 1.6 million online job postings between 2016 and 2024, and merge them with nationally representative microdata from the China Family Panel Studies (2016–2022). Fixed-effects estimates show that local AI labor demand has positive impacts on individual wages: a one-unit increase in AI demand (1, 000 postings, firms, or job titles) raises wages by about 0.2–0.3 percent. Women experience stronger gains—about 0.5–0.7 percent per unit increase—while men show no measurable effect. Wage effects are largest in Western provinces, and in China’s major AI-cluster cities where complementary production factors and digital infrastructure are most developed. Occupational analyses further show that women’s gains are concentrated in service-oriented, less skill-intensive jobs where AI complements interpersonal and coordination tasks rather than substituting them. Overall, AI diffusion generates meaningful but unequal labor market spillovers, with wage gains concentrated among women, dynamic regions, and human–AI complementary occupations, underscoring both the opportunities of technological transformation and the challenges of achieving inclusive growth. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence (AI), labor market, wages, productivity, China |
| JEL: | I23 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18740 |
| By: | Thomas Buser (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | A large literature in behavioral and labor economics is concerned with documenting gender differences in personality traits, preferences and skills, as well as the explanatory power of these differences for gender gaps in occupational choice and career success. These studies usually focus on a single trait or personality classification, such as competitiveness, risk preferences, or the Big Five personality inventory. In this paper, I instead ask how much of gender differences in occupational sorting can be statistically explained by a comprehensive range of trait and preference measures jointly. I combine detailed indicators of economic preferences and personality traits elicited in a representative Dutch survey panel and link them to career outcomes for which large gender gaps are observed: the underrepresentation of women in management and math-intensive occupations, and the underrepresentation of men in teaching and caring occupations and the public sector. Correcting for measurement error, differences in preferences and personality can statistically explain a large part – typically half or more – of gender differences in occupational sorting. An unanticipated finding is that traits with a "dark" side – such as willingness to play dirty, externalizing behavior or psychopathy – capture a surprisingly large share of these gaps. |
| JEL: | D91 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–06–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260037 |
| By: | Buser, Thomas (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Recent studies have found that childhood misbehavior, despite predicting worse schooling outcomes, is associated with higher adult earnings. Using a retrospective measure in a representative Dutch survey panel, I document a new dimension of the misbehavior-career link: people who misbehaved as children are overrepresented in leadership positions and among entrepreneurs. Yet the same people are, as adults, more likely to engage in physical aggression and social transgressions. They also have an aversive personality – markedly more disagreeable, dishonest, narcissistic, manipulative, neurotic, unconscientious, and vindictive – and report lower wellbeing. These patterns persist even among those who reach the top, making them potentially toxic as leaders. |
| Keywords: | childhood misbehavior, externalizing behavior, leadership, antisocial behavior, personality, non-cognitive skills |
| JEL: | J24 D91 I21 M51 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18744 |
| By: | Christl, Michael (Universidad Loyola Andalucia, Sevilla, Spain); Sologon, Denisa (LISER, IZA@LISER); Montes-Vinas, Ana (LISER); Wagener, Raymond (LISER) |
| Abstract: | Cross-border labour markets integrate European regions economically, but welfare analysis remains constrained by national institutional systems. We build on the European tax-benefit model EUROMOD to incorporate cross-border taxation, social insurance coordination, and family benefit allocation, and apply it to hypothetical household scenarios for workers residing in France and Belgium and employed in Luxembourg. The disposable income consequences of cross-border employment are substantial and vary by household type and residence country. France's exemption-with-progression mechanism compresses the cross-border premium at high earnings, while Belgium's full exemption lets it persist and grow across the distribution. Modelling cross-border workers under residence-country rules alone overstates income equality, with the bias concentrated among households with children and at the lower end of the income distribution. Combining country-specific EUROMOD models through a harmonised counterfactual approach, the paper offers a replicable method for measuring disposable income in cross-border contexts, and shows that inequality measurement remains tied to national welfare institutions even where labour markets operate at a regional scale. |
| Keywords: | cross-border workers, disposable income, microsimulation, tax-benefit systems, Luxembourg, Greater Region, income inequality, regional integration |
| JEL: | J20 J38 J48 H24 H55 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18749 |
| By: | Brad Hershbein; Katherine Lim; Douglas A. Webber; Mike Zabek |
| Abstract: | Using novel data from the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking, we examine how labor market tightness affects workers’ job quality. We estimate that a 10 percent increase in job vacancies not only increases the probability of changing jobs, it yields an 11–18 percent increase in the (unconditional) probability of switching to a better job overall, and one with greater pay and benefits, interest in the work, and advancement opportunities. Because tight labor markets improve both worker pay and job amenities in roughly the same proportion, their benefits to workers are underestimated when based on pay alone. |
| Keywords: | job quality; labor market tightness; Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED); Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS); Lightcast; local shocks |
| JEL: | J23 J28 J32 J62 |
| Date: | 2026–06–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:103443 |
| By: | Brockmeyer, Anne (World Bank Group); Gerard, Francois (UCL & IFS); Ulyssea, Gabriel (UCL); Wu, Linda (UBC); Bergolo, Marcelo (IECON, Universidad de la República); Ceni Gonzalez, Rodrigo (Universidad de la Republica); Kirui, Benard (Privatisation Commission); Lopez-Luzuriaga, Andrea (IADB and George Washington University); Morales, Leonardo (Central Bank of Colombia); Otero-Cortés, Andrea (Central Bank of Colombia); Riedel, Nadine (University of Munster); Tapia, Matías (Central Bank of Chile); Tawichsri, Tanisa (Bank of Thailand); Wiedemann, Verena (World Bank Group) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies formal employment dynamics using linked employer–employee data from eight countries spanning a wide income range from Kenya to Chile. First, we show that formality rates increase with development, both between and within countries, because more workers enter the formal sector, not because they spend more time in formal jobs. Second, formal labor market fluidity increases with development, as workers hold more formal jobs, spend less time in each job, and less time between jobs. Third, greater fluidity is associated with higher life-cycle wage growth, which is largely accounted for by within- rather than between-firm wage gains. |
| Keywords: | formal employment, labor market fluidity, economic development |
| JEL: | J46 J63 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18733 |
| By: | Emanuele Bajo (University of Bologna); Aleksi Pitkäjärvi (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Matteo Vacca (Hanken School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Using population-wide Finnish registry data linking an administrative measure of work from home (WFH) to matched employer-employee records, we study how the allocation of WFH across the corporate hierarchy relates to wages and firm performance. Although remote workers on average earn higher wages, job-to-job transitions into WFH show that this premium largely reflects selection and heterogeneity: managers experience wage declines of approximately 3%, while middle- and lower-layer workers experience no comparable declines. Firm-level evidence shows that the performance consequences of WFH depend on its hierarchical location. Greater lower-layer WFH penetration is associated with weaker performance, whereas managerial WFH is not associated with worse firm performance. Since managerial WFH is associated with wage declines without evidence of lower firm performance, we interpret the decline as a conservative lower bound on managers’ valuation of WFH. Our results suggest that the value of WFH depends on where it is located inside the firm. |
| Keywords: | firm performance, remote work, work from home |
| JEL: | G30 G32 J31 L23 M51 |
| Date: | 2026–06–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260039 |
| By: | Daniel S. Hamermesh |
| Abstract: | Using diaries covering 25-61-year-olds in the American Time Use Survey 2009-24, this study demonstrates that temporal variety—doing more different things in a day—is income superior. Linking these data to underlying Current Population Surveys, propensity-score models show that people stating that they have a mobility/physical disability in each of two consecutive annual surveys undertake almost 4 percent fewer activities per day than other, demographically identical individuals. They also earn about 50 percent less. Combining the estimated impact of income on temporal variety with the implied reductions in variety incurred by those with the disability yields a monetary equivalent of lost variety exceeding that of lost earnings. Measuring disability status only once yields much smaller estimated shortfalls in temporal variety and earnings. That suggests that one-time self-reports of disabilities, which underlie the bulk of studies on the impacts of disabilities on earnings, also underestimate long-term effects. |
| JEL: | J22 K13 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35417 |
| By: | Andrés Ham (Universidad de los Andes); Emmanuel Vazquez (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Monica Yanez-Pagans (The World Bank); Camilla Knudsen (The World Bank); Saher Asad (The World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the share of green employment in seven South Asian countries using an O*NET-based definition and finds that, on average, 24 percent of jobs in the region are currently green. The paper then assesses the potential for non-green workers to transition into green occupations. Among all non-green workers, 57 percent could transition to green jobs with limited reskilling, 16 percent with moderate upskilling, and 27 percent with full skills reconversion. These results suggest three policy priorities—promoting on-the-job training, strengthening firm-based and public–private training systems, and adopting a dual strategy that invests in reskilling and upskilling today’s workforce while simultaneously advancing forward- looking education reforms that equip future cohorts for new and emerging green occupations. |
| JEL: | J21 J24 J62 O57 Q01 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0377 |
| By: | D. Sonedda; M. Matranga; G. Vernasca; M. Rossi; F. Figari |
| Abstract: | We study the interaction between need- and merit-based university grants in a non-selective higher education system. Using administrative data from a northern Italian university, we analyse how eligibility criteria affect enrolment, academic performance, and labour market outcomes. We document a trade-off between the two criteria, with merit requirements acting as endogenous screening. We rationalise this trade-off with a three-period model predicting that merit thresholds increase effort among students with higher expected ability but may discourage effort among students at risk of falling short, as losing the grant reduces expected utility. We support these predictions using a difference-in-differences estimator for multiple treatments, separately analysing students switching into and out of need- and merit-based eligibility. Our results show that grants target disadvantaged but academically strong students, generate perverse incentive effects that vary by gender, and fail to retain a substantial share of initial recipients. |
| Keywords: | University Grants, Educational Outcomes, Non-selective higher education |
| JEL: | I22 I23 J24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cns:cnscwp:202611 |
| By: | Nils Torben Hollandt (Faculty of Economics and Management, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg); Steffen Müller (Faculty of Economics and Management, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg) |
| Abstract: | Using social security data and an AKM wage decomposition, this paper examines spatial wage inequality in West Germany. Spatial inequality in log wages rose sharply between 1998 and 2008, driven largely by stronger positive spatial assortative matching between workers and establishments, i.e., colocation. Changes in establishment wage premia were largely unrelated to rising colocation, while labor mobility reduced it. Instead, growth in worker pay premia among stayers was concentrated in regions that already had many high-wage workers and establishments, amplifying pre-existing patterns and leading to "colocation without relocation." Germany's rising trade surplus raised stayers' pay premia in precisely these regions and quantitatively accounts for the observed increase in colocation, pointing to trade as an important mechanism. |
| JEL: | J31 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mag:wpaper:26015 |
| By: | Andrén, Daniela (Örebro University School of Business) |
| Abstract: | When their children were 13, the parents of a school-year cohort in a midsize town in middle Sweden reported which schooling orientation (academic or vocational) they preferred for the child and which they expected the child would take. This paper interprets these two answers as proxies for parental investment in schooling: preference captures the direction of the aim, while expectation captures how far the parent believes it will be realized. The research design cannot disentangle parental push from parental foresight, so the estimates are interpreted as conditional associations. Instead, it leverages the joint measurement of preferences and expectations at the same age, rich background controls, and long-run register follow-up to describe how these two dimensions of parental schooling orientation relate to their children's later attainment and labor-market outcomes. Linking the cohort to Swedish administrative registers half a century later and conditioning on socioeconomic group, parental education, sex, birth-year group, and measured cognition at the same age, parental expectation is associated with higher adult schooling, while parental preference, holding expectation fixed, is more closely related to mid-career earnings than to schooling , with no corresponding association with late-life subjective well-being. Parents' post-compulsory expectation at age 16 maps onto their children's realized schooling in a steep, monotone gradient, from a 7 percent post-secondary share where parents expected immediate work to 75 percent where they expected a three-year academic upper-secondary program. |
| Keywords: | parental expectations; parental preferences; educational attainment; earnings. |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2026_006 |
| By: | David C Maré (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | According to official statistics, average pay in the public sector is 25% higher than in the private sector in New Zealand. This paper examines the factors underlying public and private sector pay differences using several complementary analyses. First, we use Household Labour Force Survey (Income) data to decompose the raw hourly wage difference into components associated with observable differences in jobs and workers. Second, we use administrative data to identify (FTE monthly) pay differences associated with workers and the firms they work for. Third, we analyse FTE earnings changes associated with workers who switch between public and private sector jobs over time. We find consistent evidence from these analyses that the public sector pay premium is 5–8% after adjusting for observable job differences, differences associated with workers and firms, or associated with workers who switch sectors. Finally, we use proprietary job evaluation and remuneration data to control for content-size differences between public and private sector jobs. Compared to the raw average public sector premium in these data of about 6% in base salary and 3% in total remuneration, controlling for job size differences we find that private sector pay is higher than public sector pay for similarly sized jobs, particularly for remuneration other than base salary. |
| Keywords: | Public Sector; Pay gap; Decomposition; Two-way fixed effects; Job evaluation |
| JEL: | H50 J31 J45 |
| Date: | 2026–07–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:26_08 |
| By: | Oleg Gurshev (Group for Research in Applied Economics (GRAPE); CASE, Warszawa, Poland; Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, Warszawa, Poland) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of an export demand shock triggered by the 2014 Russian import ban on labor earnings in Poland. We implement an event-study using traditional and doubly-robust difference-in-differences estimators, supplemented by a variance decomposition. Our findings indicate that the shock has caused substantial consequences for regional inequality. Specifically, we document a persistent decline in average relative earnings between the exposed group of counties and the rest of the country. The analysis of between-group variance shows that the import ban has reduced the earnings premium, shifting the exposed counties from relatively higher-earnings positions toward the national average. |
| Keywords: | Poland; Russian import ban; economic sanctions; regional inequality; local labor markets; difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | F16 F51 J31 R23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fme:wpaper:118 |
| By: | Anujit Chakraborty; Arkadev Ghosh; Matt Lowe; Gareth Nellis; Tanika Chakraborty |
| Abstract: | Many group identities that influence economic behavior are imperfectly observed. Individuals and institutions often conceal identity markers to limit discrimination. Yet concealment also creates uncertainty about group membership, hampering coordination in social interaction. To study this tradeoff, we paired high- and low-caste men for collaborative data entry work in North India. We randomly assigned each mixed-caste pair to either be: (i) introduced by full names, making caste common knowledge; (ii) introduced by first names only, making caste disclosure a choice; or (iii) instructed not to disclose caste. The two concealment conditions substantially reduce the accuracy of beliefs about a partner’s caste and confidence in those beliefs. They also weaken workplace relations, lowering trust, willingness to interact, and perceived productivity—consistent with identity helping structure social coordination. Evidence on mechanisms shows that identity concealment inhibits authentic interaction, making workers less able to express their “true selves, ” while certainty about a partner’s identity is associated with stronger workplace ties. Concealment leaves a sizable caste disparity in higher-status role assignment intact, suggesting minimal impacts on discrimination. We conclude that where group identities are socially entrenched, reducing their legibility may undermine intergroup relations. |
| Keywords: | social identity, caste, cooperation |
| JEL: | C93 D83 J71 O12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12792 |
| By: | Thomas Buser (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Recent studies have found that childhood misbehavior, despite predicting worse schooling outcomes, is associated with higher adult earnings. Using a retrospective measure in a representative Dutch survey panel, I document a new dimension of the misbehavior-career link: people who misbehaved as children are overrepresented in leadership positions and among entrepreneurs. Yet the same people are, as adults, more likely to engage in physical aggression and social transgressions. They also have an aversive personality – markedly more disagreeable, dishonest, narcissistic, manipulative, neurotic, unconscientious, and vindictive – and report lower wellbeing. These patterns persist even among those who reach the top, making them potentially toxic as leaders. |
| JEL: | D91 J24 M51 |
| Date: | 2026–06–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260038 |
| By: | Daron Acemoglu; David Autor; Keelan Beirne; Andrew Scott |
| Abstract: | The secular decline in birth rates across the globe over the past seven decades has slowed population growth, raised average ages, and reshaped labor markets and the macroeconomy. Contrary to the widespread expectation that these trends hamper economic growth, we find lower birth rates are associated with higher growth in GDP per working-age adult across countries and higher wage growth across US commuting zones, with no negative impact on aggregate GDP or earnings. These patterns are not explained by educational upgrading, rising female labor force participation, the declining importance of agriculture, or neoclassical-Solow mechanisms. We argue that they reflect the endogenous, labor-saving response of technology to the scarcity of younger workers. Consistent with this interpretation, countries and regions with lower birth rates exhibit more labor-saving patents and growing high-tech activity. There is also higher TFP growth across countries and industries. Exploiting cross-country variation in WWII military and civilian deaths, we find that declines in younger population, rather than population size per se, drive our results. |
| JEL: | E24 J11 J31 O33 O40 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35401 |
| By: | Simonsen, Marianne (Aarhus University); Skipper, Lars (Aarhus University); Smith, Jeffrey (University of Wisconsin-Madison) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses register-based data to analyze the consequences of a recent major Danish welfare reform for children’s academic performance and well-being. In addition to work requirements, the reform brought about considerable reductions in welfare transfers. We implement a comparative event study that contrasts outcomes for individuals on welfare at the time of reform announcement before and after the implementation of the reform with the parallel development in outcomes for an uncontaminated comparison group, namely those on welfare exactly one year prior. Our analysis documents that mothers’ propensity to receive welfare decreased somewhat as a consequence of the reform, just as we observe a small increase in hours worked. At the same time, we do not detect negative effects on children’s short-run academic performance. We do find small negative effects on children’s self-reported school well-being and document substantial upticks in reports to child protective services for children exposed to the reform. |
| Keywords: | welfare reform, treatment effects, children, Denmark |
| JEL: | I38 J13 J22 H53 C23 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18739 |
| By: | Inés Berniell (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Lucila Berniell (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CEPE, SPD/SDV BID); Victoria Castillo (OEDE-Ministerio de Capital Humano); Belén Cañuelo (FCE-UNLP); Dolores de la Mata (CAF-banco de desarrollo de América Latina y el Caribe); Gerardo Garcia Oro (Gobierno de la Provincia de Córdoba); Néstor Grión (Gobierno de la Provincia de Córdoba); Federico Juncosa (CAF-banco de desarrollo de América Latina y el Caribe); Luis Laguinge (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of an internship program in Argentina (Programa Primer Paso) on the formal employment trajectories of People with Disabilities (PwD). Using administrative data from 2002–2023 and a staggered differencein-differences design, we estimate that program participation persistently increases formal employment and improves employment stability over time. On average, the probability of being formally employed rises by about 8 percentage points within three years after treatment, with the effect growing over time. The program also increases sustained employment—measured as at least six or twelve months of formal work per year—as well as the total number of months in formal jobs. Importantly, about three-quarters of the observed employment gains arise from jobs at firms other than the initial internship host, indicating broader integration into the formal labor market rather than the formalization of pre-existing ties. These results are robust to alternative specifications and pre-trend tests. The effects are larger for individuals residing in the capital city and for those placed in medium- and large-sized firms, while they are smaller for individuals with mental disabilities. No clear differences are found by age or gender. From the perspective of participating firms, we find no evidence of changes in their hiring behavior toward PwD after hosting a PPP intern with a disability. These findings suggest that internship programs can be an effective tool to reduce labor market gaps for people with disabilities in developing countries, with patterns consistent with the alleviation of informational frictions, the raising of expectations about employment prospects, and the acquisition of transferable skills. |
| JEL: | J14 J48 I38 O17 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0376 |
| By: | Joern Kleinert (University of Graz, Austria); Wiltrud Moelzer (University of Graz, Austria) |
| Abstract: | This paper traces the emergence of the Austrian labor market from the mid-19th century to the interwar period. In the last two centuries, the growing division of labor required increasingly complex mechanisms to match dispersed skills and knowledge with productive tasks. We study labor markets as institutions that facilitate this matching in a decentralized manner. The first part of the paper situates this development historically by examining how different recruitment channels emerged and interacted. Rather than replacing each other linearly, these channels coexisted, competed, and evolved in response to new demands, constraints, and social preferences. Together, they shaped how people searched for or offered work, how information circulated, and how employment relationships were formed. The second part looks at one such channel using newspaper job ads. Drawing on two hand-collected random samples from 1870 and 1927, we document how advertised jobs mirror broader structural and economic changes. These samples are extracted from 29 digitalized Germanlanguage newspapers containing job ads from 1850 to 1950. Our findings reveal an increasing specialization and formalization of employment relationships and demonstrate the potential of historical job ads as a novel empirical basis and unfiltered source for studying labor markets. |
| Keywords: | History of labor markets, labor market matching, vacancy, qualification requirement, labor market institutions |
| JEL: | N33 N34 J21 J64 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grz:wpaper:2026-12 |
| By: | Annabel Siegal (Boston College); Joanna Venator (Boston College) |
| Abstract: | Is there a motherhood penalty in time use? Using a pseudo-event study design, we document that women’s time spent on childcare and housework increases more post-birth than men’s. Women are also more likely to spend more time on multi-tasking with women reporting a larger increase in time spent on childcare done simultaneously with leisure and housework. Using state-by-year variation in paid family leave legislation, we show that these policies change the motherhood penalty in time-use, increasing the gap in time use in the year of birth but reducing the gap in the years post-birth. |
| Keywords: | childcare, female labor supply, time use |
| JEL: | J13 J22 J38 |
| Date: | 2026–06–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:1113 |
| By: | Andrew Garin; Ethan Jenkins; Evan E. Mast; Bryan A. Stuart |
| Abstract: | This paper studies migration and earnings dynamics in poor neighborhoods using new administrative data linking residential location and earnings. Out-migration rates are higher in poor neighborhoods than elsewhere, and the majority of people who leave a poor neighborhood move to a richer one. Residents of poor neighborhoods also see significant earnings mobility, with average growth rates similar to richer areas. Estimates based on idiosyncratic, firm-specific pay changes show that increases in earnings are linked to migration to better neighborhoods. This results in the earnings of the cohort who lived in a poor neighborhood at baseline growing more than twice as fast as the earnings of these neighborhoods' contemporaneous residents. Overall, our results highlight an underappreciated reason why poor neighborhoods stay poor: initial residents whose earnings grow tend to move away. |
| JEL: | J30 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35381 |
| By: | Karimi, Arizo (Uppsala Univeristy); Niknami, Susan (SOFI, Stockholm University); Ornstein, Petra (Uppsala University); Sandberg, Anna (SOFI, Stockholm University); Mühlrad, Hanna (Karolinska Institutet) |
| Abstract: | Using large-scale Swedish administrative data, we study the risk factors and causal consequences of intimate partner violence (IPV). IPV perpetrators and victims are disproportionately drawn from disadvantaged backgrounds, and sibling correlations indicate that family background accounts for roughly one third of the variation in male IPV perpetration and female IPV victimization. Exploiting a matched difference-in-differences design, we document large persistent negative effects of IPV on victims’ labor market outcomes and health, with the social welfare system more than offsetting earnings losses on average. Perpetrators experience sharp earnings declines and deteriorating health. Our findings suggest that IPV amplifies existing socioeconomic inequalities. |
| Keywords: | intimate partner violence, gender inequality, labor supply, mental health, crime |
| JEL: | I12 I14 I15 J12 J16 J17 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18742 |
| By: | Akar, Betul (TUBITAK); Okten, Cagla (Bilkent University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the intergenerational effects of Turkiye’s 1997 compulsory schooling reform, which increased mandatory schooling from five to eight years. Drawing on a novel dataset from the nationally representative 2022 Turkish Child Survey, we use a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to identify the causal effect of mothers’ exposure to the reform. We find that the reform significantly increased maternal educational attainment and, in turn, improved children’s performance in Turkish, while having no statistically significant effect on mathematics achievement. Maternal exposure to the reform also had positive effects on children’s mental health, increasing happiness and reducing anxiety, but did not affect their general health status. These effects are heterogeneous by child gender, with boys benefiting more than girls. Analysis of potential channels shows that increased parental investment may be one relevant channel explaining the observed effects, while reduced child work appears to play a limited role. |
| Keywords: | mother’s education, compulsory schooling, child outcomes, mental health, physical health |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18735 |
| By: | Gondauri, Davit; Batiashvili, Mikheil |
| Abstract: | This chapter develops the Agentic Social Dividend as a distributional architecture for the agentic economy. Building on the concepts of agentic economy and agentic capital, it argues that the central social problem of AI, robotics, compute systems, data infrastructures and executable protocols is not simply technological unemployment, but labour repartition and the weakening of wage-based distribution. The chapter constructs the Agentic Social Dividend Necessity Index (ASDNI) using maximum-coverage international statistical anchors from the World Economic Forum, IMF, International Federation of Robotics, International Labour Organization, OECD, Stanford AI Index, OpenAI/UPenn and the International Energy Agency. Methodologically, the chapter combines composite-index construction with a supplementary diagnostic econometric decomposition layer based on cross-sectional OLS specifications, robust standard errors, scenario simulation, robustness diagnostics and EVA-based fiscal-capacity assessment. This econometric layer is interpreted as internal validation and structured decomposition of a generated index, not as causal identification of the welfare effects of AI or automation. Results show that advanced agentic economies face high distributional pressure because AI exposure, robot intensity and rent concentration are high, while emerging and low-income groups face a different risk profile caused by weaker adaptive and human-sovereignty capacity. The EVA extension shows that selected AI-, cloud-, platform- and compute-intensive firms generate measurable surplus above capital charges, while sensitivity tests confirm that this surplus remains positive under more conservative invested-capital assumptions. The chapter concludes that the Agentic Social Dividend is not ordinary welfare or passive income; it is a targeted distributional mechanism that can link a portion of agentic productivity gains to reskilling, AI literacy, audit capacity, human override infrastructure, data governance and renewed human participation in economic life. |
| Keywords: | Social Dividend, agentic economy, agentic capital, AI exposure, labour repartition, Agentic Social Dividend Necessity Index, diagnostic econometric decomposition, universal basic income, robot density, EVA, human sovereignty, compute infrastructure, rent concentration, reskilling, distributional policy |
| JEL: | O33 D31 I38 J24 H53 C43 C51 O38 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:341578 |
| By: | Andreas Haller; Stefan Staubli |
| Abstract: | The central trade-off for designing Disability Insurance (DI) is between providing insurance to those in need while maintaining incentives to work. This paper develops a novel revealed-preference approach to identify the insurance value of DI benefits. We show that comparing the DI take-up response to a change in benefits versus a change in wages identifies the insurance value. Implementing our framework in Canada, we estimate that increasing DI benefits by $1 creates an additional disincentive cost of $0.60 but creates an insurance value of $2.20. Thus, our approach suggests that DI benefits are not overly generous in the Canadian context. |
| Keywords: | disability insurance, take-up, benefits, policy reform |
| JEL: | H53 H55 J14 J21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12790 |
| By: | Dan Cao; Henry Hyatt; Toshihiko Mukoyama; Erick Sager |
| Abstract: | Since the 1990s, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reported much more rapid growth in U.S. private sector employer establishments than has the Census Bureau – the gap reached roughly 1.6 million by 2023. Using linked BLS-Census microdata, we document two main drivers. First, a large and growing number of employers providing services to the elderly and persons with disabilities are in scope for the BLS frame but not the Census Bureau’s. Second, many firms appear with substantially more establishments in the BLS frame. These discrepancies substantially affect the measured establishment size distribution and quantitative policy analysis. |
| Keywords: | establishments; multi-unit firms; concentration |
| JEL: | E24 J21 L11 O31 |
| Date: | 2026–06–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:103440 |
| By: | Hattori, Keisuke |
| Abstract: | Leadership is usually understood as a means of influencing followers. Can it also discipline the leader herself? In an infinitely repeated team-production game where the leader moves first, sequential timing creates an enforcement asymmetry: a shirking leader is punished within the same period, whereas a follower can free ride on the leader's sunk effort and is punished only later. Full exposure removes the leader's dynamic incentive constraint and turns role assignment into a choice of whom to discipline. Holding the other dimension fixed, the less patient member should lead, whereas the more able member should follow, because ability relaxes the only remaining constraint. When high ability and low patience coincide in one person, task complementarity favors keeping that person as a productive follower, while substitutability favors assigning her to lead. This pure-exposure benchmark is sharply overturned once a leader's traits spill over to followers: above a single assimilation threshold, the conventional assignment of the high-ability, patient leader becomes superior on both output and enforcement grounds. Greater transparency of the leader's effort strengthens this disciplinary mechanism, and costly supervision can substitute for that discipline. The model implies that promoting the best worker can undermine team cooperation even when that worker would make a competent leader. |
| Keywords: | leadership, repeated games, team production, cooperation, promotion, supervision |
| JEL: | C72 C73 D23 J24 M51 M54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:341546 |
| By: | Datta Gupta, Nabanita (Aarhus University); Hedeager, Kristian (Kraka, Danmark); Kim, Youngsook (Korean Women's Development Institute); Stratton, Leslie (Virginia Commonwealth University) |
| Abstract: | We compare the effects of non-parental care (NPC) for young children on mothers’ and fathers’ employment and childcare time, using data from Korea, the United Kingdom, and Denmark. Our findings indicate that mothers using NPC are more likely to be employed, particularly in Korea. Correspondingly, in all three countries mothers using NPC spend less time on childcare on weekdays, but in Korea less time is also spent on weekends and on quality care. The effects for fathers are rarely significant. We find evidence that family-friendly workplaces, care type, and gender norms all play a role in explaining the cross-country differences. |
| Keywords: | non-parental care, employment, parental care time, parenting quality, survey data, time-use, time-diary data |
| JEL: | J13 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18738 |
| By: | Bellmann, Lutz (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Dustmann, Christian (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Fitzenberger, Bernd (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "This paper examines the evolution, institutional structure, and current challenges of collective bargaining in Germany. Collective bargaining addresses labor market imperfections, redistributes productivity gains, and shapes working conditions. The German system is centered on industry-level agreements, complemented by firm-level agreements and voluntary adoption of industry-level bargaining outcomes by formally uncovered firms (“orientation”). It has historically supported cooperative labor-management relations, while allowing for flexibility during economic downturns. We document long-term declines in union density and bargaining coverage, partly mitigated by orientation. Moreover, coverage is lower among low-wage workers. We conclude by discussing the future of Germany’s collective bargaining institutions in the context of structural economic change and the growing role of the statutory minimum wage, and draw comparison between Germany and the US." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| JEL: | J38 J51 J58 |
| Date: | 2026–07–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202604 |