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on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages |
| By: | Garicano, Luis; Li, Jin; Wu, Yanhui |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how the effect of AI on an occupation depends not just on which tasks AI can perform but also on how costly it is to unbundle those tasks from the job. Much of the discussion of AI and labor markets starts from task exposure: if AI can perform more tasks in an occupation, that occupation should lose employment or earnings. This is incomplete because labor markets price jobs, not tasks. Jobs bundle tasks together, and the effect of AI depends on how costly it is to break the bundle. We build a two-task model in which AI can either assist one task inside a bundled job or supply that task autonomously while a human supplies the residual task. We show that, in weak-bundle occupations, AI automates some tasks and narrows the boundary of the job, activating the standard task-substitution channel once product demand is sufficiently inelastic. In strong-bundle occupations where tasks are not independently reallocable, AI improves performance inside the job, but does not remove the human from the bundle. Thus, bundling provides a force that protects jobs and workers' share of downstream revenue. |
| JEL: | J24 J23 O33 L23 D20 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21453 |
| By: | Holden, Steinar (Department of Economics, University of Oslo); Markussen, Simen (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research); Røed, Knut (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | Differentiation of the employer-born payroll tax may be a tool to raise employment for groups whose wage entitlements are set above market clearing levels – e.g., through collective bargaining, minimum wage legislation or implicit contracts. We provide an empirical evaluation of a reform in Norway in 2002 whereby the payroll tax for mature (62+) workers was reduced by 4 percentage points. Our findings indicate that the reform led to a 2-3% increase in total hours worked by persons aged 62-64. Approximately 25% of the tax cut was passed on to the workers in the form of higher hourly wages. |
| Keywords: | payroll tax, tax incidence, labor demand, labor supply, difference in differences |
| JEL: | H22 E24 J23 J26 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18727 |
| By: | Goller, Daniel (University of Bern); Brox, Enzo (University of Bern); Wolter, Stefan (University of Bern) |
| Abstract: | Why do people sort into poorly fitting occupations? This paper shows that imperfect self-knowledge about skills is an important source of skill mismatch at labor market entry. We use unique data from standardized professional aptitude tests linked to administrative records on educational trajectories and early labor market outcomes in Switzerland. The data allow us to observe objective skills and subjective skill beliefs for many productivity-relevant skills in a high-stakes setting. We document large differences among individuals in how well their beliefs align with their skills. Imperfect self-knowledge predicts misaligned occupational aspirations, higher realized skill mismatch, and a higher probability of dropout. Guided by a Roy-style model of occupational choice with imperfect self-knowledge, we interpret these findings as evidence that distorted self-assessments at the school-to-work transition contribute to the misallocation of talent. |
| Keywords: | information frictions, occupational choice, skill mismatch, self-knowledge |
| JEL: | D83 J24 J41 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18730 |
| By: | Gülümser, Dogan (Rockwool foundation Berlin) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies hiring and wage setting in new jobs. Using Swedish matched employer-employee data covering 1.7 million new hires, I show that entrants into occupations new to the firm have more labor market experience and are more likely to be hired from other employers. Conditional on entrant characteristics, new jobs have a 3 percent entry-wage premium and exhibit lower turnover than old jobs. The premium declines as firms accumulate occupation-specific employment experience, consistent with hiring uncertainty that resolves as the firm gains experience in the occupation. The new job wage premium is a previously undocumented source of wage dispersion among similar workers. |
| Keywords: | Hiring uncertainty; information frictions; wage setting; match quality |
| JEL: | D83 J23 J31 J63 |
| Date: | 2026–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2026_014 |
| By: | Cruces, Guillermo; Fernandez Meijide, Diego; Galiani, Sebastian; Galvez, Ramiro; Lombardi, María |
| Abstract: | Does generative artificial intelligence (AI) reinforce or reduce productivity differences across workers? Existing evidence largely studies AI within firms and occupations, where organizational selection compresses educational heterogeneity, leaving unclear whether AI narrows productivity gaps across individuals with substantially different levels of formal education. We address this question using a randomized online experiment conducted outside firms, in which 1, 174 adults ages 25–45 with heterogeneous educational backgrounds complete an incentivized, workplace-style business problem-solving task. The task is a general (not domain specific) exercise, and participants perform it either with or without access to a generative-AI assistant. Unlike prior work that studies heterogeneity within relatively homogeneous worker samples, our design targets the between–education-group productivity gap as the primary estimand. We find that AI increases productivity for all participants, with substantially larger gains for lower-education individuals. In the absence of AI access, higher-education participants outperform lower-education participants by 0.548 standard deviations; with AI access, this gap falls to 0.139 standard deviations, implying that generative AI closes about three quarters of the initial productivity gap. We interpret this pattern as evidence that generative AI narrows effective productivity differences in task execution by relaxing cognitive constraints that are more binding for lower-education individuals, even though underlying skill differences remain, as reflected in persistent education gaps in task performance and in a follow-up exercise without AI assistance. |
| Keywords: | Productivity; Inequality |
| JEL: | J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21299 |
| By: | Prados de la Escosura, Leandro |
| Abstract: | Recent research confirms that per capita income in early modern Spain improved only marginally overall, while also revealing sustained growth through much of the sixteenth and eighteenth centuries, alongside a continued decline from the late sixteenth to the mid-seventeenth centuries. These phases shaped Spain’s relative position within Western Europe and contributed to the Reversal of Fortune. This paper finds that labour productivity, proxied by output per working-age population, improved during the first three-quarters of the sixteenth century, then declined until the mid-seventeenth century, and that the subsequent recovery never reached the levels of the 1570s. What caused these episodes of growth and decline: changes in resource endowments or in the efficiency of their use? Phases of labour productivity growth were often driven by factor intensity, but efficiency losses underpinned periods of stagnation or decline, which contradicts the stylised view that factor intensity is the main driver of labour productivity in a pre-industrial economy. Compared with Great Britain, Spain showed an inverse, divergent pattern, moving from similar levels to less than half of Britain's by 1800. Efficiency was the main driver of the widening gap. Ingenuity appears, therefore, to be the driving force behind the Reversal of Fortune. |
| Keywords: | Spain; Britain |
| JEL: | E24 J24 N13 O47 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21503 |
| By: | Baslandze, Salomé; Edwards, Zachary; Graham, John; McClure, Ty; Sparks, Michael; Meyer, Brent; Waddell, Sonya; Weitz, Daniel |
| Abstract: | We use novel data from a survey of nearly 750 corporate executives to study the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) on productivity and the workforce. We document substantial heterogeneity in AI adoption across firms, with more than half having already invested, though many smaller firms are only beginning to do so. Labor productivity gains are positive, vary across sectors, and are expected to strengthen in 2026, with the largest effects concentrated in high-skill services and finance. These gains are not primarily driven by firms’ capital deepening but instead reflect increases in revenue-based total factor productivity, closely associated with innovation- and demand-oriented channels. We document a productivity paradox, in which perceived productivity gains are larger than measured productivity gains, likely reflecting a delay in revenue realizations. In labor markets, we find little evidence of near-term aggregate employment declines due to AI, though larger companies anticipate AI-driven workforce reductions, while smaller firms expect modest gains. We also find evidence of compositional reallocation of labor both within and across firms, with routine clerical roles declining and a relative demand for skilled technical roles increasing. We develop an index that ranks job functions most negatively affected by AI. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence; Productivity; Technological change; Labor markets; Occupations |
| JEL: | O33 D22 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21313 |
| By: | de Pleijt, Alexandra; Koschnick, Julius; Wallis, Patrick |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence that education contributed to England’s Industrial Revolution by increasing upper-tail human capital. Contrary to the prevailing view that schooling was irrelevant to early industrialization, we show that the expansion of schooling lowered barriers to entering apprenticeships in skill-intensive trades. We introduce new parish-level data on 3, 000 school foundations, 46, 000 charitable bequests, and 350, 000 apprenticeship contracts between 1711 and 1805. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design exploiting educational endowments through wills, we show that the expansion of schooling increased apprenticeship training, particularly in occupations requiring reading, writing, and mathematical skills that were crucial for the Industrial Revolution. |
| Keywords: | Education; Skill formation; Human capital; Innovation; Industrial revolution |
| JEL: | N13 I21 J24 O14 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21279 |
| By: | Lambert, Peter John (University of Warwick); Schindler, Yannick (Ellison Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Is generative AI replacing junior workers? A growing literature answers yes, citing large declines in early-career hiring concentrated in GenAI-exposed occupations. We argue that this verdict is premature because GenAI exposure is strongly correlated with another post-pandemic shock, working from home(WFH).Using two data sources spanning 243 million new hires and 407 million online job postings, collected across the US, UK, Canada, and Australia during 2017-2025, we estimate difference-in-difference designs at the occupation, region, and firm level. When estimated separately, a two-standard-deviation increase in GenAI and WFH exposure each predicts, by 2025, a fall of around 5pp in the junior-share of new hires and around 3pp in the share of job ads requiringlimited experience. Estimated jointly, the WFH effect remains, while the GenAI coefficient attenuates sharply and is often statistically indistinguishable from zero. Alternative exposure measures, residualization designs, flexible non-parametric co-treatment controls, and replacing exposure-measures with actual WFH adoption as the treatment all support our finding that WFH is a robust predictor of the decline in early-career hiring. |
| Keywords: | RemoteWork, Generative AI, Junior Hiring, Technology Exposure, Omitted Variable Bias JEL codes: J23, J24, J31, O33 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1615 |
| By: | Birinci, Serdar; Karabarbounis, Loukas; See, Kurt |
| Abstract: | In the 1990s, Americans used to work much more than non-Americans. Nowadays, about half of the gap in hours worked has reversed. To evaluate the convergence of working hours, we develop a tractable model of labor supply enriched with multiple sources of heterogeneity across individuals, an extensive margin of participation, multi-member households, and an elaborate system of taxes and benefits upon non-employment. Using detailed measurements from micro-level and aggregate datasets, we identify model parameters and sources of heterogeneity across individuals for various countries. We run a horse race between competing explanations and find that U.S. hours per person declined after 2000 owing mainly to the rise of government health benefits provided to the non-employed. Non-U.S. countries have generous benefits for the non-employed, but this generosity has not changed as much over time as in the United States, and public health coverage does not depend on employment status or income levels. For these countries, the rise of labor supply is generally accounted for by a mix of factors, such as the rise of wages and the falling disutility of work. |
| Keywords: | Employment; Hours; Wages; Benefits |
| JEL: | E24 E60 H53 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21343 |
| By: | Buser, Thomas (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | A large literature in behavioral and labor economics documents gender differences in personality traits and preferences, as well as their explanatory power for gender gaps in occupational choice and career success. These studies usually focus on a single trait or personality classification, such as competitiveness, risk preferences, or the Big Five personality inventory. In this paper, I instead ask how much of gender differences in occupational sorting can be statistically explained by a comprehensive range of trait and preference measures jointly. I combine detailed personality and preference indicators elicited in a representative Dutch survey panel and link them to career outcomes for which large gender gaps are observed: the underrepresentation of women in management and math-intensive occupations, and the underrepresentation of men in teaching and caring occupations and the public sector. Correcting for measurement error, differences in preferences and personality can statistically explain a large part – typically half or more – of gender differences in occupational sorting. Traits with a "dark" side – such as willingness to play dirty, externalizing behavior or psychopathy – capture a surprisingly large share of these gaps. |
| Keywords: | gender, occupational segregation, personality, economic preferences, competitiveness |
| JEL: | J16 J24 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18721 |
| By: | Cerina, Fabio; Dienesch, Elisa; Monge-Naranjo, Alexander; Moro, Alessio |
| Abstract: | Using longitudinal French administrative data (1984--2021), we document that employment polarization after 1994 reflects major changes in labor-market entry rather than mass occupational downgrading or displacement of incumbents. Flows from routine to abstract occupations remain substantial throughout the period, and a large fraction of these upgrades is due to non-college workers. The decisive shift that generates polarization occurs at the entry margin: the net flow from non-employment into routine occupations reverses around 1994, while the net flow from non-employment into manual work increases. These patterns motivate life-cycle models of occupational choice that explicitly incorporate cohort heterogeneity and separate entry and re-entry margins. |
| Keywords: | Labor market polarization; Worker flows; Occupational mobility; Routine-biased technological change; Longitudinal data |
| JEL: | J62 J24 J21 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21480 |
| By: | Bancalari, Antonella; Rud, Juan Pablo |
| Abstract: | Can local government spending spur economic activity? We exploit a reform in Peru that redistributed natural resource tax revenues to municipalities in non-extractive areas, generating exogenous variation in inter-governmental transfers. Between 2006 and 2018, we estimate a dynamic cumulative fiscal multiplier of around 1.3, going up to 1.6 in more closed, rural areas. We show that the resulting windfalls boosted public investment, as intended by the reform. Using micro-data, we find increases in labor force participation, wage earnings and revenues for household firms and farms, with the strongest effects in agriculture. Consistent with this, we show that rural areas benefited the most, experiencing rises in income and consumption, and declines in poverty. |
| Keywords: | Peru |
| JEL: | H23 H27 H30 J23 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21510 |
| By: | Kecht, Valentin; Lizzeri, Alessandro; Saidi, Farzad |
| Abstract: | This paper documents that the age at which CEOs are appointed has risen sharply over the past several decades. Using newly assembled data covering a wide set of firms, we show that this increase is concentrated outside the largest listed firms and driven primarily by longer and more diverse external career paths prior to CEO appointment. These patterns are difficult to reconcile with explanations based on demographics, schooling, or tenure, and are instead consistent with a matching framework in which rising demand for generalist human capital leads firms to trade off peak ability for accumulated experience. We investigate the forces behind this shift. Using variation in consulting networks, we establish that firms place greater weight on diversified managerial experience as operating environments have become increasingly uncertain and complex. We also provide evidence for a supply-side response in which prospective CEOs broaden their skill portfolio as demand for generalist skills rises. |
| Keywords: | Ceos; Aging; Uncertainty |
| JEL: | D22 J21 J24 M12 M51 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21397 |
| By: | Chabé-Ferret, Bastien; Iftikhar, Zainab; Park, JungJae |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the contributions of social norms and economic incentives to the 350-hour annual gap in maternal labor supply between East and West Germany. Using a collective model of family formation and labor supply estimated on GSOEP data from 2000–2017, we find that the working-mother stigma accounts for 73 percent of the gap. Economic factors partially offset the norm: higher Western wages raise the opportunity cost of staying home, so equalizing wages in West to the levels in East would nearly double the gap. We show that standard policy reforms may actually widen the regional disparity, and that their effectiveness is conditional on the norm being present: once removed, the same policies have negligible effects. |
| JEL: | J01 J08 J12 J13 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21439 |
| By: | Anna Bindler (DIW Berlin, University of Potsdam, Berlin School of Economics, RFBerlin, CEPR, CEPA); Barbara Boelmann (University of Cologne, RWI Essen, RFBerlin, IZA); Lena Janys (University of Konstanz, IZA); Luisa H. Santiago Wolf (University of Cologne, DIW) |
| Abstract: | How do labor demand shocks affect workforce diversity in the absence of targeted diversity policies? A conceptual framework illustrates the potential trade-off between the demographic and quality composition of a workforce when there is a positive labor demand shock. Exploiting the German reunification as a natural experiment, we analyze the academic labor market where nearly all social sciences professors in East Germany were replaced while STEM faculty remained largely unchanged. Using administrative data and a regional difference-in-differences design, we find increased dispersion in the institutional quality of hires, indicating that the new hires came from less select departments. At the same time, female representation did not increase despite qualified women in the pipeline. Instead, East German hiring patterns converged to those in West Germany in terms of gender composition. In simulations, we investigate implied losses: Under conservative assumptions, we show that, considering the pipeline of qualified applicants, the marginal female hire’s quality is approximately half a standard deviation higher than the marginal male hire’s quality. |
| Keywords: | labor demand, diversity, higher education, universities |
| JEL: | I23 J23 J45 J70 J82 N34 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pot:cepadp:102 |
| By: | Acabbi, Edoardo Maria; Alati, Andrea; Mazzone, Luca; Morazzoni, Marta |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how entrepreneurs sort into founding teams and how team composition shapes the equilibrium distribution of firms. We develop a theory of career choice and team formation in which skill complementarities make team entrepreneurship attractive for agents with unbalanced skill profiles, while talent similarity makes teaming preferable to other outside options. Using matched employer-employee and balance-sheet data from Portugal, we show that teams combining similar talent with diverse specializations create larger, more productive, and longer-lived firms. We also document a bias in meetings toward similarly-skilled founders and calibrate the model to match this evidence. Meeting bias lowers average wages and output by 12% and 13% respectively by distributing activity towards a higher number of less productive firms, while search frictions per se reduce wages and aggregate output by 15% and 13% respectively by preventing highly diverse but specialized individuals from forming successful teams. |
| JEL: | L26 J24 L25 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21393 |
| By: | Anna Bindler; Barbara Boelmann; Lena Janys; Luisa H. Santiago Wolf |
| Abstract: | How do labor demand shocks affect workforce diversity in the absence of targeted diversity policies? A conceptual framework illustrates the potential trade-off between the demographic and quality composition of a workforce when there is a positive labor demand shock. Exploiting the German reunification as a natural experiment, we analyze the academic labor market where nearly all social sciences professors in East Germany were replaced while STEM faculty remained largely unchanged. Using administrative data and a regional difference-in-differences design, we find increased dispersion in the institutional quality of hires, indicating that the new hires came from less select departments. At the same time, female representation did not increase despite qualified women in the pipeline. Instead, East German hiring patterns converged to those in West Germany in terms of gender composition. In simulations, we investigate implied losses: Under conservative assumptions, we show that, considering the pipeline of qualified applicants, the marginal female hire’s quality is approximately half a standard deviation higher than the marginal male hire’s quality. |
| Keywords: | labor demand, diversity, higher education, universities |
| JEL: | I23 J23 J45 J70 J82 N34 |
| Date: | 2026–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0100 |
| By: | Janjala Chirakijja; Pinchuan Ong |
| Abstract: | Economists typically treat labor supply responses to wages and taxes as equivalent. We show that social preferences towards tax-funded government expenditures induce differences between the wage and net-of-tax rate elasticities of labor supply in canonical models. We use a large-scale vignette experiment to show that wage elasticities of labor supply are meaningfully larger than their net-of-tax rate counterparts, consistent with social preferences affecting labor supply. We show relevance for real labor market decisions by leveraging an existing elasticity of taxable income meta-analysis. Hence, models calibrated using net-of-tax rate elasticities when wage elasticities are more suitable understate individuals’ labor supply responses. |
| Keywords: | Labor Supply Elasticity; Taxation; Social Preferences |
| JEL: | J22 H24 H41 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:259 |
| By: | Cattan, Sarah; Conti, Gabriella; Farquharson, Christine |
| Abstract: | Early childhood programmes frequently lose effectiveness at scale, yet the role of the workforce remains poorly understood. We document substantial heterogeneity in workforce effectiveness in England’s national home-visiting programme for first-time teenage mothers, despite a highly-structured curriculum and well-qualified staff. Exploiting quasi-random assignment of mothers to family nurses, we estimate that a one standard deviation increase in workforce effectiveness raises children’s cognitive and socio-emotional development by 0.20-0.23 SD. Structural quality — observable worker characteristics — does not predict effectiveness, but process quality — how visits are delivered — does. Greater effectiveness is linked with improvements in maternal mental health and risk behaviours. |
| JEL: | I38 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21418 |
| By: | Bamieh, Omar; Dolado, Juan J; Janez, Alvaro; Wellschmied, Felix |
| Abstract: | Chile’s 2022 Platform Work Law mandates firms to monitor their subcontractors’ formality and establishes maximum working hours, minimum pay, and the right to collective bargaining among independent contractors. Chile further stands out worldwide for providing a comprehensive and nationally representative dataset for platform work that allows us to track workers’ labor market outcomes over 2020-2024. By means of DiD and event study regressions, we find that this reform induced an 8-percentage-point shift from the share of informal to formal subcontractors with no change in the share of employees. Moreover, there were no significant changes in collective bargaining, compliance with minimum pay and maximum hours, or wage differentials between employees and subcontractors. The changes in hiring practices and wages are consistent with a structural labor market model where firms hire employees and formal and informal subcontractors. The calibrated model also shows that the reform reduced platforms’ profits, while strictly enforcing hours regulations would lead to very small welfare losses. |
| Keywords: | Platforms; Employees |
| JEL: | J21 J60 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21541 |
| By: | Benjamin Milner (University of Alberta) |
| Abstract: | This paper breaks new ground in tracing the effects of historical child labour reform from childhood through to adulthood. I first show that by decreasing the opportunity cost and increasing the returns to schooling, Britain’s 1860 Mining Act led to increased human capital acquisition among the children of coal miners. Then, using full-count census records linked across decades, I demonstrate that positive effects extended well into adulthood, as these same children became significantly more likely to obtain high skill, human capital-intensive occupations. |
| Keywords: | Child Labour; Education; UK; Resource Industry; Compulsory Schooling |
| JEL: | N13 N33 I28 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:albaec:023032 |
| By: | Bloom, Nicholas; Dahl, Gordon; Rooth, Dan-Olof |
| Abstract: | There has been a dramatic rise in disability employment since the pandemic. At the same time, work from home (WFH) has risen four-fold. This paper asks whether the two are causally related. Controlling for compositional changes and labor market tightness, a 1 percentage point increase in WFH increases full-time employment by 1.0% for individuals with a physical disability. The postpandemic increase in working from home explains 68%-85% of the rise in full-time employment. Wage data suggests that WFH increased the supply of workers with a physical disability, likely by reducing commuting costs and enabling better control of working conditions. |
| Keywords: | Work from home |
| JEL: | J14 J42 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21377 |
| By: | Heblich, Stephan; Seror, Marlon; Xu, Hao; Zylberberg, Yanos |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of large, successful manufacturing plants on other local producers in China, focusing on “Million-Rouble Plants†built in the 1950s during a brief alliance with the U.S.S.R. The ephemeral geopolitical situation and the locations of allied and enemy airbases provide exogenous variation in plant siting. We find a boom-and-bust pattern: Counties hosting these plants were 80% more productive than control counties in 1982 but 20% less productive by 2010. This decline reflects the performance of local establishments, which exhibit low productivity, limited innovation, and high markup. Specialization hindered spillovers, preventing the emergence of new clusters and local entrepreneurship. |
| Keywords: | Specialization; Place-based policies; Spillovers |
| JEL: | R11 R53 J24 N95 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21527 |
| By: | Emre Kurt (Department of Economics, University of Insubria, Italy); Andrea Riganti (Department of Economics, University of Insubria, Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether the 2011 Italian Fornero Pension Reform altered retirement behaviour among individuals approaching retirement age and whether household characteristics shaped responses to the reform. Using panel data from Waves 4 and 5 of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), the analysis exploits variation in reform exposure across age cohorts and over time within a difference-in-differences framework with individual fixed effects. The results provide limited evidence that the reform substantially affected retirement and employment outcomes, although some estimates are consistent with delayed retirement and extended labour market participation. However, important heterogeneity emerges across household contexts. In particular, partnership status provides the strongest, albeit modest, evidence of heterogeneous responses to the reform. By contrast, there is little evidence that gender, number of children, caregiving responsibilities, health status, wealth, social support, or social security wealth systematically alter responses to the reform. These findings suggest that retirement behaviour is shaped not only by individual labour market incentives but also by household decision-making processes. More broadly, the results highlight the importance of considering household dynamics when evaluating the labour supply effects of pension reforms in family-oriented welfare systems such as Italy. |
| Keywords: | pension reform, family structure, retirement policy, household dynamics |
| JEL: | H55 J16 J26 D13 |
| Date: | 2026–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2026-007 |
| By: | Edoardo Di Porto (Sapienza University of Rome, CSEF, University of Naples “Federico II”, UCFS, Uppsala University, and CESifo); Pietro Garibaldi (Collegio Carlo Alberto, University of Torino, CEPR, and IZA); Giovanni Mastrobuoni (Collegio Carlo Alberto, University of Torino, CEPR, IZA, and RFBerlin); Paolo Naticchioni (Roma Tre University and IZA) |
| Abstract: | Work arrangements with no guaranteed working hours, which include casual work, are often promoted as a means to regularise informal labour. Utilising unique Italian administrative data that links employer-employee records, daily voucher usage by firms, and randomly timed labour inspections (2014-2017), we demonstrate that this type of Flexible Work Arrangements (FWA) can also hinder enforcement and increase undeclared work. We document that, upon inspection, some firms validate undeclared work with FWAs on the spot, raising the probability of FWA usage by 0.88 percentage points (18%) on average, with the largest increases occurring on the day of and the day after the inspection. A simple partial-equilibrium labour-demand model with heterogeneous tax morale rationalises these “on-the-spot” validations as an enforcement-avoidance margin. The post-inspection increase vanishes when firms are required to pre-notify the tax authority of their use of FWAs. Moreover, when FWAs are completely abolished, presumptive misusers substitute FWAs with temporary contracts. |
| Keywords: | informality, labour vouchers, flexible work arrangements, occasional work, zero-hour contracts. |
| JEL: | J23 H26 |
| Date: | 2026–07–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:786 |
| By: | Bick, Alexander; Blandin, Adam; Deming, David; Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola; Jessen, Jonas |
| Abstract: | This paper combines international evidence from worker and firm surveys conducted in 2025 and 2026 to document large gaps in AI adoption, both between the US and Europe and across European countries. Cross-country differences in worker demographics and firm composition account for an important share of these gaps. AI adoption, within and across countries, is also closely linked to firm personnel management practices and whether firms actively encourage AI use by workers. Micro-level evidence suggests that AI generates meaningful time savings for many workers. At the macro level, in recent years industries with higher AI adoption rates have experienced faster productivity growth. While we do not establish causality, this relationship is statistically significant and similar in magnitude in Europe and the US. We find no clear evidence that industry-level AI adoption is associated with employment changes. We discuss limitations of existing data and outline priorities for future data collection to better assess the productivity and labor market effects of AI. |
| Keywords: | Generative AI |
| JEL: | J24 M16 O14 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21337 |
| By: | Oral, Emre; Rabaté, Simon; Seibold, Arthur |
| Abstract: | We study how social forces in families, neighborhoods and workplaces shape retirement behavior. To estimate causal retirement spillovers between individuals, we exploit a pension reform in the Netherlands that creates exogenous variation in peers' retirement ages, and we use administrative data on the full Dutch population. We find large spillovers in couples, primarily due to women reacting to their husband's retirement choices. Average spillovers among siblings, neighbors, and coworkers are modest; however, consistent with homophily in social interactions, sizable effects arise between similar individuals in these groups. Additional evidence suggests both leisure complementarities and the transmission of social norms as mechanisms behind retirement spillovers. Our findings imply that pension reforms have a large social multiplier, amplifying their overall impact on retirement behavior by at least 42%. |
| JEL: | H55 J26 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21472 |
| By: | Della Lena, Sebastiano; Sato, Yasuhiro; Zenou, Yves |
| Abstract: | We develop a dynamic model in which individuals allocate time between work and religious activities, and parents invest in their children's human capital and religious belief. The model delivers, in a unified framework, the two empirical regularities documented by Barro and McCleary (2003) and McCleary and Barro (2019): controlling for religious activities, stronger belief raises economic growth because it raises human capital investment; controlling for belief, more time spent on religious activities lowers growth by crowding out labor supply. While the labor-supply margin is individually optimal, the human-capital margin is not: parents do not internalize that greater human-capital investment crowds out future religious transmission through the socialization channel, leading to inefficiently high human capital in equilibrium under strong socialization externality. We extend this baseline framework in three directions. First, introducing a complementarity between religious belief and human capital–capturing the Protestant-ethic channel of Weber (1930)–we show that the efficiency of equilibrium depends non-monotonically on the strength of this complementarity. Second, allowing for cultural conflict between two religious groups à la Bisin and Verdier (2000), , we show that cultural intolerance depresses human capital investment and, if human capital raises labor productivity, reduces economic growth. Third, embedding the model in a system of cities, we show that larger, more productive cities endogenously attract workers who invest more in human capital and spend less time on religious activities, generating a negative cross-city relationship between city size and religiosity that is consistent with the empirical evidence in McCleary and Barro (2019). |
| Keywords: | Religion; Human capital; Cultural transmission; Economic growth; Cities |
| JEL: | O40 Z12 J24 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21514 |
| By: | Sutirtha Bagchi (Department of Economics, Villanova School of Business, Villanova University) |
| Abstract: | Public-sector unions shape how state and local governments staff and size their workforces, yet clean shocks to union power are rare. The 2018 ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court in Janus v. AFSCME provided one, eliminating mandatory agency fees in the 21 states that had previously permitted them. I use a difference-in-differences design comparing affected states with right-to-work states and draw on two complementary datasets: three waves of the Census of Governments (CoG) and a balanced 2011–2025 annual panel that combines the CoG with the Annual Survey of Public Employment and Payroll. I find that Janus reduced part-time employment by 6.2 to 8.4 percent while leaving full-time employment unchanged, thereby raising the full-time share of the workforce by 1.13 to 1.75 percentage points. A simple model rationalizes this pattern: because union power sustained the part-time periphery, weakening it shifts the adjustment onto the least-protected positions rather than the full-time core. Per-worker earnings are unchanged for full-time and part-time workers alike, in both datasets. I additionally confirm the earnings null using individual-level CPS and state-level QCEW data. |
| Keywords: | Public-sector unions; Union membership; Collective bargaining; Agency fees; Janus; Freeriding |
| JEL: | J45 H75 K31 J51 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vil:papers:66 |
| By: | Costas-Fernandez, Julian; Findeisen, Sebastian; Raute, Anna; Schönberg, Uta |
| Abstract: | This paper examines firms’ incentives to provide workplace amenities, focusing on employer-provided childcare, and the implications for gender inequality. Using rich matched employer–employee data linked to a comprehensive firm survey in Germany, we document substantial and persistent effects of employer-provided childcare on mothers’ labor market trajectories. Firms that offer childcare experience higher retention rates and notably shorter career interruptions among first-time mothers, especially those with high pre-birth wages, resulting in meaningful reductions in child penalties of 4.7 percentage points for high-wage mothers. The adoption of firm-provided childcare is also associated with stronger employment growth —particularly among mothers and female talent in high-wage occupations—without systematic adverse wage effects for women or mothers. Our findings align with models of imperfect competition, indicating that firms with greater monopsony power have stronger incentives to provide valuable workplace amenities. While firm-provided childcare plays a critical role in reducing gender gaps within firms, our findings also show that access to these benefits is uneven, widening disparities among women and mothers across firms. |
| JEL: | J16 J32 J42 J13 J23 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21499 |
| By: | Julien Albertini (Université Lumière Lyon 2, Université Jean-Monnet Saint-Etienne, emlyon business school, GATE, 69007, Lyon, France); Tony Berthonneau (Le Mans Université, GAINS-TEPP; Université Lumière Lyon 2, Université Jean-Monnet Saint-Etienne, emlyon business school, GATE, 69007, Lyon, France); Anthony Terriau (Le Mans Université, GAINS-TEPP) |
| Abstract: | We study the interplay between informality, health, and education in South Africa. Using data from the National Income Dynamics Study, we document large disparities in health and labor market outcomes over the life cycle. We develop and estimate a life-cycle search-and-matching model with endogenous education and a dual labor market. We show that informal employment and poor health reinforce each other, generating a persistent poverty and poor-health trap. Policy experiments show that the optimal reform combines tertiary education subsidies, a broader tax base, and a lower average tax burden on earnings, increasing employment, welfare, and health while preserving fiscal balance. |
| Keywords: | Informality, Health, Education, Human Capital, Search and Matching |
| JEL: | I14 J24 J46 J48 J64 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:2607 |
| By: | Alessandro Toppeta |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates a structural model of skill formation for children who grow up with siblings, introducing a novel variable, the "sibling bond, " which captures how well siblings get along. Using data from the Millennium Cohort Study in the United Kingdom, I construct this measure from information on the frequency and quality of sibling interactions, such as enjoying playtime together and teasing each other. Descriptive evidence shows that a stronger sibling bond is associated with better child outcomes during adolescence. The structural estimates are consistent with the sibling bond being a productive input in the skill formation of both younger and older siblings, alongside parent-child interactions. |
| Keywords: | human capital, skills, siblings |
| JEL: | J24 I24 I28 J13 O15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12736 |
| By: | Di Nola, Alessandro (University of Birmingham); Wang, Haomin (Cardiff University) |
| Abstract: | Women are more likely than men to work in low-hours jobs, which are associated with lower hourly wages and are disproportionately impacted by minimum wage policies. To quantify the gendered effects, we build and estimate an equilibrium search model that incorporates demographic and firm productivity heterogeneity, as well as jobs differing in both wages and hours requirements. The model replicates observed gender gaps in employment, hours worked, and wages, as well as the positive relationship between hours and hourly wages. We implement the minimum wage in our model with a penalty to address non-compliance. Using this framework, we find that Germany's initial €8.5 minimum wage reallocates women toward higher-hours jobs, reducing non-employment. Firm adjustments, however, dampen this effect by raising wages for low-hours jobs, making them relatively more attractive. Enhanced enforcement of the minimum wage amplifies the upward reallocation for women. Finally, we examine the effects of higher minimum wages, finding that increases up to €14 reduce both the gender wage and hours-worked gaps. At €11, 44.8% of the reduction in the gender income gap is attributable to changes in hours worked. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wage; gender gaps; equilibrium job posting; hours requirement |
| JEL: | J08 J31 J16 E24 E64 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2026/8 |
| By: | Christophe André; Matthias Schief |
| Abstract: | Demographic headwinds are set to weaken economic growth in OECD countries over the coming decades. At the same time, artificial intelligence (AI) provides opportunities for productivity gains, potentially alleviating labour shortages and boosting economic growth. However, little is known about how exposure to AI varies over the life cycle and what this may imply for AI deployment in ageing societies. This paper shows, using OECD Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC) data, that workers’ overall exposure to AI (automation and augmentation) exhibits an inverted U-shaped pattern across age groups, albeit less pronounced when controlling for education, occupation and country. Exposure to automation is higher in younger age groups and declines rapidly with age, as experience tends to complement AI. Nevertheless, as a general-purpose technology, AI is bound to be disruptive. Reaping its benefits will require labour market reallocation, reskilling and upskilling, and business dynamism and innovation, which may all be weaker in ageing societies. |
| Keywords: | ageing, artificial intelligence, business dynamism, demography, economic growth, innovation, labour market policies, lifelong learning, PIAAC, productivity, reskilling, technological change, upskilling |
| JEL: | J08 J11 J24 O33 O40 |
| Date: | 2026–07–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1870-en |
| By: | Edoardo Bella (Boston College); Garrett Anstreicher (University of Iowa); Joanna Venator (Boston College) |
| Abstract: | We leverage the national rollout of FIRST robotics teams across high schools and document that attending a high school with a robotics club substantially increases the likelihood that a student will go on to major in computer science or engineering in college. These effects vary significantly by gender: while these programs increase the likelihood that male students go on to major in engineering/computer science (+3.1 pp), effects for female students are substantially smaller and are at times negative, with worse effects for teams with lower gender ratios. We confirm these findings in restricted- use Census survey data and find that positive impacts extend past college, with robotics teams increasing the likelihood that men work in STEM-related occupations. These results suggest that exposure to STEM-related high school extracurricular activities may increase interest in engineering and computer science but can also widen existing gender gaps in take-up of these fields. |
| Keywords: | College Major Choice, Robotics, High School Curricula, Occupation Choice |
| JEL: | I23 J24 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–06–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:1112 |
| By: | Abboud, Ali; Bazzi, Samuel; Canaan, Serena; Deeb, Antoine; Mouganie, Pierre |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how authority figures in higher education shape gender norms over the long run. We exploit the random assignment of first-year students to faculty advisors at an elite university in the Middle East and combine administrative records with an alumni survey measuring gender attitudes up to 24 years later. Women assigned to female advisors adopt more egalitarian views about politics and work, while men become more conservative. These effects are strongest among religious students and in male-dominated STEM fields, where female authority is especially counter-stereotypical. The effects may persist through reinforcement, as women assigned to female advisors later sort toward female instructors and more gender-themed courses. Our results do not appear to be driven by generic exposure to successful women. Instead, they point to a distinct role for authority in transmitting gender norms: randomized exposure to high-achieving female peers has little effect, while the largest impacts come from senior and high-value-added female advisors. A simple framework combining belief updating and identity-based status threat helps explain these patterns of female empowerment and male backlash. More broadly, our findings reveal a progress paradox whereby gains in female representation in elite authority expand opportunities for women while intensifying backlash among men, thereby deepening gender polarization. |
| Keywords: | Polarization; Backlash; Religion |
| JEL: | I23 J16 J24 P00 Z12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21449 |
| By: | Thimo De Schouwer; Sebastiaan Maes; Tom Potoms |
| Abstract: | Earnings premiums for long hours vary across occupations, shaping gender sorting and inequality. The leading explanation emphasizes firm-side production technologies, yet hours and wages are equilibrium outcomes reflecting worker preferences and market structure. We build a directed search-and-matching model that allows us to decompose the premium. Premiums compensate for the disutility of long hours and bargaining power; productivity explains little in Tech, where premiums approach 20%. This disutility is highest among women, who sort away from long-hours jobs; these amenity differences account for 22% of the gender earnings gap. In counterfactuals, general-equilibrium responses through market tightness substantially change policy impacts. |
| Keywords: | long hours, earnings premium, search and matching, directed search |
| JEL: | C78 E24 J16 J31 J32 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12779 |
| By: | Bagues, Manuel; Makany, Milan; Vattuone, Giulia; Zinovyeva, Natalia |
| Abstract: | We study how faculty promotion decisions shape women's careers and the academic pipeline, using data from 4, 000 Spanish university departments across all disciplines. We identify exogenous variation in promotions using the random assignment of evaluators to promotion committees between 2002 and 2008: applicants whose committees included a co-author or colleague were significantly more likely to qualify for promotion. We document two main findings. First, failing to obtain tenure has asymmetrically lasting consequences for women. Those who narrowly miss tenure are 57 percentage points less likely to be tenured fifteen years later, compared to 29 percentage points for men. Second, when women do obtain tenure, the effects extend well beyond their own careers: promoting a woman to Associate Professor increases female faculty by 1.5 members after 15 years, leads to six additional female PhD graduates over the following decade, and raises the number who subsequently remain in academia and reach tenured positions. |
| Keywords: | Randomized natural experiment; Promotions |
| JEL: | I23 J16 J44 M51 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21325 |
| By: | Kevin André Pineda-Hernández; François Rycx; Thomas Senterre; Mélanie Volral |
| Abstract: | Although a growing number of studies highlight the moderating role of educational attainment on the wage differential between immigrants and natives, the influence of the field of study remains largely unexplored. We aim to fill this gap by drawing on detailed, matched employer-employee data on workers holding a master’s degree in Belgium for the period 1999-2016. After controlling for a wide range of covariates, our regression analyses show that the wage gap between immigrant and native workers with degrees in higher-paying fields (i.e. STEM and LEM) narrows considerably over two generations, but remains significant. By contrast, among workers with degrees in lower-paying fields (i.e. Other Social Sciences, Education, Services, Arts and Humanities) the wage gap between immigrants and natives disappears within two generations. Furthermore, our wage decompositions reveal that immigrant graduates are somewhat more likely to hold degrees in higher-paying fields than natives, which results in a small positive quantity effect. However, they also show that wage returns associated with fields of study are significantly lower for immigrants than for natives. This leads to a negative price effect, which, in percentage points, is halved over two generations. Altogether, the combined price and quantity effects – with the former far outweighing the latter – account for between 28 and 37% of the overall pay gap between natives and first- and second-generation immigrants, respectively. Sensitivity tests using a more detailed classification of fields of study further refine our results. |
| Keywords: | Immigrant-native wage gap; first- and second-generation immigrants; field of study; matched employer-employee data |
| JEL: | I23 I24 I25 I26 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–06–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/408813 |
| By: | Paul M. Gorny; Petra Nieken; Martin Trenkle |
| Abstract: | Recruitment signals shape applicant pools. Across three studies, we examine whether genderfair (vs. generic masculine) German job titles affect application behavior and job seekers' beliefs about organizational culture. In a large-scale pre-registered field experiment, gender-fair titles increase female applications and clicks in Business & Management where priors are flexible by about 50 %. There is no average effect in categories with less flexible priors consistent with a signaling model. Eye-tracking evidence shows effects reflect belief updating, not visual salience, and an online study supports gender-fair language as a credible equality signal. We find no male backlash. |
| Keywords: | gender, labor, signaling, recruitment, bias, discrimination, gender-fair language |
| JEL: | C93 J16 J20 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12721 |
| By: | David Felipe-Calvo (University of Zaragoza); José Ignacio Gimenez-Nadal (University of Zaragoza); José Alberto Molina (IEDIS, Universidad de Zaragoza) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines within-day work interruptions due to childcare as a candidate micro-level mechanism behind the child penalty. Using time-use diaries from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS, 2003–2023), we apply survival analysis combined with Random Survival Forests, Gradient Boosting, SHAP values, and Accumulated Local Effects plots to model the time until a working parent’s first interruption. Parental gender is the dominant predictor across all methods: fathers face an instantaneous interruption hazard about 61 per cent below mothers’ (HR=0.389; 95% CI: 0.346–0.438), a gap robust to competing-risks decomposition, alternative censoring thresholds, and a stratified specification. Higher education and income are associated with greater, not lower, interruption risk. A cross-national extension to eight countries confirms the universality of the gender gap, with male hazard ratios below one everywhere (0.388 in the United States to 0.657 in Finland). These findings document a high-frequency margin of gender inequality and provide cross-sectional evidence of a daily mechanism that may contribute to explaining the child penalty. |
| Keywords: | Work interruptions; Child penalty; Machine Learning; Gender norms; Gender inequality; Multi-country analysis |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:1114 |
| By: | Bilgin, Nuriye Melisa; Ottaviano, Gianmarco |
| Abstract: | Do the determinants of technology adoption depend on technological architecture? Using administrative data on Turkish firms from 2021 to 2024, we compare the adoption of traditional and generative artificial intelligence (GenAI). We show that GenAI adoption is driven by workforce skill intensity and is not positively associated with firm size, whereas traditional AI depends on both scale and skills. Firms that adopt both technologies are distinct and represent the most persistent adoption mode. Conditional on adoption, the skill-to-size ratio governs technology choice, and transition dynamics indicate a sequential process in which firms adopt GenAI before expanding to hybrid use. Exploiting the release of ChatGPT as a quasi-experimental reduction in access costs, we find that high-skill firms differentially increased GenAI adoption, while firm size played a limited role. These results suggest that the canonical size-based diffusion pattern is not universal but depends on the cost structure of technologies, with implications for innovation policy and productivity dispersion. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence |
| JEL: | O33 L25 D22 O14 J3 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21506 |
| By: | Emre Kurt (Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena, and Department of Economics, University of Insubria, Italy); Ege Asutay (Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena) |
| Abstract: | Populist movements claim to represent an undifferentiated ‘people’, yet every redistributive instrument they enact selects a subset to receive its benefits. This paper uses Italy’s two back-to-back pension reforms as a stress test of that within-people contradiction. The technocratic Fornero Reform (2011) and the populist Quota 100 Reform (2019) share an institutional environment but follow opposite political logics, the second reversing the first. Using SHARE data for 2011–2022, we identify causal effects from age-based thresholds in a difference-in-differences design with individual fixed effects. Quota 100 raises eligible individuals’ retirement probability by 5.1 percentage points, and the response is 12.5 percentage points smaller for women than men, whereas the Fornero effect is delayed and more even across genders. The gender asymmetry survives alternative outcomes, narrower age windows, and pre-COVID restrictions. When a populist coalition redistributes, it reaches the part of the people whose careers satisfy the eligibility design, in keeping with the coalition’s familialism, while younger workers bear the cost through pay-as-you-go financing. The findings move research on populist incumbency from how it damages institutions to who benefits, and clarify the contrasting distributional logics of technocratic and populist governance. |
| Keywords: | Pensions, populism, retirement policy, gender inequality |
| JEL: | D72 H55 J26 P16 |
| Date: | 2026–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2026-008 |
| By: | Basso, Gaetano; De Paola, Maria; Lattanzio, Salvatore; Paradisi, Matteo |
| Abstract: | We study whether workplace flexibility is a key driver of the motherhood penalty. Exploiting the sharp and heterogeneous diffusion of work-from-home (WFH) contracts after COVID-19 in a difference-in-differences framework, we combine administrative data on the universe of Italian WFH contracts with matched employer--employee records, mother--father links, fertility records, and firm balance sheets. Greater exposure to flexible work substantially reduces mothers' post-childbirth earnings losses, primarily through higher weeks worked, lower part-time incidence, lower parental leave take-up, and improved career progression. IV estimates indicate that holding a WFH contract offsets about 77\% of mothers' earnings losses around childbirth. Gains are larger among younger, lower-earning, and commuting mothers, in households where the father is the dominant earner, and in occupations with steeper hours--earnings profiles, consistent with flexibility relaxing constraints where most binding. Fathers' own earnings do not respond to flexibility around childbirth, yet fathers' exposure to flexible work reduces mothers' earnings losses by a comparable magnitude, pointing to household-level time constraints as a central mechanism. Consistent with this interpretation, fertility, a joint household decision, rises for women more exposed to flexibility, as flexibility lowers the labor-market cost of the marginal child. A counterfactual exercise shows that the life-cycle widening of the gender earnings gap would have been 10.7\% smaller under current WFH diffusion and up to 29.4\% smaller if all remotable jobs had adopted flexible arrangements. |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J22 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21486 |
| By: | Britto, Diogo; de Holanda, Caio; Ferman, Bruno; Fonseca, Alexandre; Sampaio, Breno; Warwar, Lucas |
| Abstract: | Does parenthood impair workers’ on-the-job productivity? We study this question and its implications for understanding the child penalties in employment observed for mothers. We focus on judges, a profession that helps overcome key empirical challenges: output can be measured precisely, it can be observed for all workers before and after childbirth because virtually no parent leaves the profession, and workloads are evenly distributed, limiting scope for selective task allocation. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find no evidence that mothers’ — and fathers’ — output declines during pregnancy or after they return from parental leave, and we can rule out moderate declines. We validate this result using a broad set of measures capturing both the quantity and quality of judicial work, and we document similar patterns for self-employed labor lawyers. Our findings show that motherhood need not reduce on-the-job productivity and suggest that, at least in some contexts, child penalties in employment may not be driven by lasting declines in on-the-job productivity. |
| Keywords: | Child penalty |
| JEL: | J16 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21498 |
| By: | Alejandra Villegas (Department of Economics, Universidad Iberoamericana Ciudad de Mexico) |
| Abstract: | This article examines how social norms are enforced through evaluative behavior in the domain of unpaid domestic labor. I implement an online experiment combining an incentivized coordination task to elicit perceived community norms with a two-round dictator-type allocation task. Participants first allocate lottery tickets to a virtual recipient identified only by sex; they then allocate tickets to the same recipient after observing a domestic-work allocation that either conforms to, exceeds, or falls below the elicited reference norm. The main outcome is the within-evaluator change in transfers, which captures whether norm-relevant information induces evaluative rewards or sanctions. The results show that responses to norm deviation are relational and asymmetric. Evaluative transfers vary with the gender of the recipient, the direction of the deviation from the reference norm, and the evaluator's own normative position. In particular, allocations that reduce women's expected share of domestic work, and therefore move toward a more egalitarian division of labor, tend to elicit more negative responses when associated with male rather than female recipients, especially among evaluators with more traditional views about domestic labor. By experimentally varying norm compliance and linking it to allocation behavior, the paper provides behavioral evidence on how informal enforcement mechanisms may sustain gendered divisions of unpaid work even when egalitarian arrangements are available. |
| JEL: | J16 C91 D91 Z13 J22 D64 |
| Date: | 2026–06–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smx:wpaper:2026005 |
| By: | Ewan McGaughey |
| Abstract: | How do labour rights affect economic growth, and what may we predict from the Employment Rights Act 2025? The UK government says its first mission is growth, and improving workers’ rights is part of this. However, the government chose to define its growth mission solely in terms of Gross Domestic Product. GDP often conflicts directly with growth in real wages, valuable production, equality, or improving the environment, because it accurately measures market prices alone. It ignores market failures. It ignores inequality. It discounts public services, voluntary work, and leisure. Yet to grow GDP, Labour’s leadership dropped its original pledges to create “a national goal for well-being” and a New Deal for Working People. This paper evaluates the Act’s new rules on zero hours contracts, day one rights, equality action plans, fire and rehire, collective bargaining, collective action, and the Fair Work Agency, using comparative data. It shows the UK will still have among the worst labour rights in the OECD on virtually every front, and its position barely moves even if all rules are implemented. This reveals the folly of defining a growth mission around contradictory GDP metrics. Real economic growth is growth in household wealth, not growth in corporate profit by redistributing wealth away from workers, rent-seeking, or externalising damage. The UK’s experience shows that labour rights are unsafe while GDP is in use. The solutions are to define growth, in law, to focus on real household wealth within an Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index, and to pass a new Employment Rights Act to match international standards. This must include a single worker status, fair pay agreements across all sectors, worker directors on company boards and in control of pension money, and statutory duties for full employment for the Treasury and Bank of England. The text of draft legislation is proposed. |
| Keywords: | Labour, economic growth, GDP, innovation, productivity, well-being, worker status, sector collective bargaining, codetermination, full employment, unemployment, equality, equal treatment, discrimination |
| JEL: | K10 K22 K31 J71 J51 I30 I32 I31 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbr:cbrwps:wp551 |
| By: | Arnaud WITTMER |
| Abstract: | This article examines wage inequalities induced by firm-level collective agreements. While European literature on firm-level collective bargaining often identifies a wage premium associated with firm-level agreements, we seek to go beyond this finding by studying the effects on the distribution of wages within and between firms. To do so, we use the AKM (Abowd-Kramarz-Margolis) estimation method, previously applied by Song et al. (2018) and Babet, Godechot, and Palladino (2025), who studied the variance of individual log hourly wages. Our indicator for firm-level agreement presence carries no direct explanatory power in the year the agreement is signed. However, wage inequalities are systematically higher in firms that have signed a wage agreement over the full sample period, reaching 0.0195 for firms with 50–99 employees, 0.0284 for firms with 100–249 employees, and 0.0487 for firms with 500 or more employees. This difference is driven primarily by the within-firm component of wage inequality, which is higher in firms signing FLAs (Firm-Level-Agreements) and increases further with firm size. These findings suggest that the culture of negotiation within companies, rather than the act of signing an agreement itself, can contribute to a raise of wage inequalities in companies signing FLAs. |
| Keywords: | labour market, collective bargaining, wage inequalities |
| JEL: | D30 D33 J31 J52 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2026-20 |
| By: | Montpetit, Sébastien (University of Warwick); Jacquet, Antoine (Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first empirical evidence on the economic costs of wearing the Islamic veil and on motives for veiling in a secular Western country. Using French observational data rather than small-scale interviews, we document a significant negative correlation between veiling and economic participation, even conditional on the respondent’s religious environment. Using a structural interpretation of a theoretical model of veiling and labor market participation, we then examine the various motivations behind the joint decision to veil and to be economically active. Our findings suggest that lower economic returns to integration, rather than religious preferences, account for most of the negative association. Additionally, our results emphasize the significance of personal religious motives in the decision to veil, rather than signaling piety to others. |
| Keywords: | veiling, labor market participation, religious identity, secularism JEL codes: J16, J71, Z12, J22, D63 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1618 |
| By: | Research and Statistics Department (Bank of Japan) (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | The Research and Statistics Department of the Bank of Japan has revised the methodology for calculating the output gap and potential growth rate, which are regularly estimated and released, taking into account the benchmark year revision of 2020 in GDP statistics and recent changes in economic structure. The main changes include: (1) regarding the capital utilization rate, the source data has been changed from a quantity basis to a "value-added basis, " which accounts for quality improvements, resulting in an adjustment of the downward bias that has occurred in capital utilization rate for the manufacturing sector; (2) for the structural unemployment rate, the estimation method has been revised to more accurately capture mismatches in the labor market, given the recent shift from the use of the Public Employment Security Office to the use of private employment agencies; and (3) the potential growth rate has been re-estimated using the 2020 base-year GDP and capital stock statistics, through the calculation of the total factor productivity growth rate. In order to assess economic and price developments, using estimates of the output gap to identify the aggregate supply and demand balance remains critical. However, in recent years, and amid intensifying labor supply constraints, developments in labor input and labor market tightness appear to exert an increasingly significant influence on economic activity in labor-intensive sectors and price trends. Against this backdrop, this paper also conducts a brief empirical performance exercise of labor market indicators that are considered to be suitable for complementary monitoring of the output gap, given their relevance to forecasting wages and prices. |
| Keywords: | output gap; potential growth rate; GDP; phillips curve; labor market |
| JEL: | E23 E24 E31 E32 J20 O47 |
| Date: | 2026–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojron:ron260630a |
| By: | Jason Abaluck; Kevin Bryan; Rebecca Ceppas de Castro; Basil Halperin; Todd Jones; Ezra Karger; Otto Kuusela; Dan Mayland; Ananaya Mittal; Connacher Murphy; Matt Reynolds; Josh Rosenberg; Philip Tetlock; Phil Trammell; Ria Viswanathan |
| Abstract: | We elicit forecasts of how AI will affect the U.S. economy, comparing the beliefs of five groups: academic economists, employees at AI companies, policy researchers focused on AI, highly accurate forecasters, and the general public. The median respondent in each group expects substantial advances in AI capabilities by 2030, small declines in labor force participation consistent with demographic shifts, and an annual GDP growth rate of 2.5%, which exceeds both the typical medium-run (2.0%) and long-run (1.7%) baseline forecasts from government agencies and private-sector forecasters. Conditional on a “rapid” AI progress scenario, in which AI systems surpass human performance on many cognitive and physical tasks, experts forecast substantial, though not historically unprecedented, economic shifts: annualized GDP growth rising to around 4% and the labor force participation rate falling from its current level of 62% to 55% by 2050, with roughly half of that decline—equivalent to around 10 million lost jobs—attributable to AI. A variance decomposition suggests that expert disagreement about these effects is driven primarily by different beliefs about the economic effects of highly capable AI systems rather than by disagreement about the pace of AI progress. These forecasts map onto notably different policy preferences across groups: experts strongly favor targeted measures such as worker retraining, whereas the general public supports both targeted programs and broader interventions, including a job guarantee and universal basic income. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence; Economic forecasting; macroeconomic impacts |
| JEL: | O33 O38 O40 E27 J21 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:103454 |
| By: | Dan Andrews; Tito Boeri; Andrea Garnero; Sindri Engilbertsson; Sara Holttinen; Lorenzo G. Luisetto |
| Abstract: | Non-compete clauses can protect firms’ legitimate interests such as trade secrets or training investments, but they can also hinder worker mobility, wage growth, and innovation. Therefore, the way these clauses are regulated is central to balancing business needs with labour market dynamism. This paper provides the first cross-country analysis of non-compete regulatory regimes in OECD countries. It documents the main legal dimensions that govern their enforceability, and it develops a new index that captures regulatory strictness and structure. This extends earlier work on the United States. By systematically mapping these frameworks, the paper helps to fill a significant knowledge gap and supports policymakers in evaluating the effectiveness of current regulations in balancing the protection of firms with the fostering of competitive and innovative labour markets. |
| Keywords: | Job Mobility, Non-Compete Clauses, Regulation |
| JEL: | J41 J62 K31 |
| Date: | 2026–06–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:332-en |
| By: | Fadi Daraghmeh; Sameh Hallaq |
| Abstract: | This study examines the state of decent work in the West Bank, focusing on the intersection of labor market conditions, gender disparities, and the fragility of legal enforcement. Using a mixed-methods approach that combines labor force surveys, qualitative interviews, and institutional analysis, we document substantial gaps in labor rights, social protection, and equitable employment opportunities, particularly for women and youth. The findings reveal that informal work, weak regulatory frameworks, and limited access to social protection undermine progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 8 of the United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda, which aims to promote sustained, inclusive, and productive employment. Policy recommendations emphasize the need for comprehensive legal reform, targeted skills development, and social protection expansion to enhance labor market inclusion and economic resilience in fragile contexts. |
| Keywords: | Decent work; West Bank; Youth; Women; creative industries |
| JEL: | J21 J38 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1116 |