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on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages |
| By: | Erling Barth; Maria Forthun Hoen; Sari Pekkala Kerr; William R. Kerr |
| Abstract: | Occupational change is a central feature of modern labor markets. This paper examines the career consequences in Norway of being initially employed in an occupation that subsequently declines during 2007–2024. Workers initially employed in occupations that later decline by at least 25% demonstrate 0.4 lower future years of work, although this employment difference is mostly explained by other individual traits. These workers, conditional on controls, experience a 4.7% reduction in future cumulative earnings relative to starting earnings, akin to losing one year’s worth of earnings over 2007–2024. |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J62 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35096 |
| By: | Lindner, Attila (University College London); Muraközy, Balázs (University of Liverpool); Reizer, Balázs (ELTE - Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); Schreiner, Ragnhild (University of Oslo) |
| Abstract: | We quantify the contribution of firm-level technological change to skill demand and aggregate inequality in the presence of imperfect competition in the labor market. We show that skill-biased technological change increases both the firm-level skill ratio and the skill premium, while other shocks (e.g. firm-specific output demand shocks) cannot explain the increase in both outcomes. We exploit administrative data and a large survey measuring a broad class of firm-level technological changes from Hungary and Norway. We estimate that the aggregate college premium increases by 3.4% in Norway and by 4.9% in Hungary as a result of the skill bias in technological change. |
| Keywords: | skill-biased technological change, innovation, skill premiums, imperfect competition |
| JEL: | J31 J24 O30 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18516 |
| By: | Pawel, Adrjan (Indeed Hiring Lab and Regent's Park College, University of Oxford); Jessen, Jonas (WZB and IAB); Victoria Lanzón, Carlos (Universidad Complutense de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | We examine whether restricting temporary contracts increases firms' investment in worker training, exploiting Spain's 2022 labour market reform. Using 3.1 million online job postings from 2018 to 2024, we implement a difference-in-differences design that leverages pre-reform variation in reliance on temporary contracts across occupations. More exposed occupations shifted toward permanent hiring and increased advertised training relative to less exposed occupations. Training rose by 4.3 percentage points, fully closing the pre-reform gap by 2024. These results provide evidence that longer expected employment duration increases firms' investment in training, identifying a channel through which labour market regulation can shape human capital formation. |
| Keywords: | temporary employment, on-the-job training, human capital investment, employment contracts |
| JEL: | J24 J41 J63 J68 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18539 |
| By: | Irlenbusch, Bernd (University of Cologne); Rau, Holger (University of Duisburg-Essen and University of Göttingen); Rilke, Rainer (Economics Group, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management) |
| Abstract: | We study how human versus LLM-based evaluation and gender transparency shape entry into competitive jobs. In a preregistered online experiment, participants first complete a Niederle and Vesterlund (2007) tournament task to measure competitive preferences, then prepare text-based job applications and decide whether to apply under each of four evaluation regimes—human only, LLM only, and two hybrid human-in-the-loop configurations—while gender disclosure is randomized between subjects. LLM involvement reduces application rates, with stronger effects for women than men, including under hybrid designs. Effects are driven by non-competitive candidates; non-competitive women, the group most exposed to AI-induced deterrence, receive the strongest objective evaluations under pure AI assessment across all subgroups, yet are systematically underconfident and apply least often. Competitive men persistently apply and exhibit overconfidence-driven adverse selection, whereas competitive women show resilience to AI-induced deterrence while remaining well-calibrated under AI evaluation and exhibiting positive self-selection across regimes. We find no effects of gender transparency. |
| Keywords: | AI hiring, LLMs, algorithm aversion, gender differences |
| JEL: | C92 J71 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18517 |
| By: | Gallen, Yana (Harris School, University of Chicago); Joensen, Juanna (University of Chicago); Johansen, Eva (the Chairmanship of the Danish Economics Councils); Veramendi, Gregory (Royal Holloway, University of London) |
| Abstract: | We study the labor market impact of unplanned pregnancy among women using long-acting reversible contraceptives to delay pregnancy. While most women successfully delay, some have unplanned pregnancies, providing quasi-random variation in pregnancy timing. Analyzing linked health and labor market data from Sweden, we find that unplanned pregnancies halt women's career progression, resulting in income losses of 19% five years later. We find similar effects of unplanned births among women using short-acting reversible contraceptives. Using pregnancy as an instrument for birth in a dynamic treatment effect framework, effects of unplanned children are more detrimental for younger women and those enrolled in education. |
| Keywords: | labor market costs of motherhood, fertility, contraceptives, unplanned pregnancy |
| JEL: | J13 J22 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18529 |
| By: | Innessa Colaiacovo; Margaret G. Dalton; Sari Pekkala Kerr; William R. Kerr |
| Abstract: | Multiple studies document a local bias of entrepreneurship (LBE) in recent decades, where self-employed entrepreneurs are systematically more likely than wage workers to operate in their region of birth. This paper documents an important new fact: the LBE has been declining in the United States since 1970. The LBE is still present for white men engaged in self-employment, but it no longer exists for the overall U.S.-born workforce. We connect that decline to the transformation of self-employment away from high startup-capital sectors and the reduced opportunity for local self-employed entrepreneurs to achieve high incomes compared to wage work. |
| JEL: | D24 G51 J11 J24 J62 L26 M13 R11 R13 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35088 |
| By: | Hu, Yue Louise |
| Abstract: | Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997, this paper exploits within-sibling differences in vocational coursework credits taken during high school to estimate their effects on educational and labor market outcomes. I find that additional vocational course-work reduces four-year college attendance without affecting college graduation among those who enroll, and is associated with higher annual earnings that persist into the mid-thirties. This evidence suggests that vocational education helps students realize their comparative advantage and sort into different educational paths, which benefit their labor market outcomes. The findings point to high school vocational education providing sustained economic benefits without compromising overall educational attainment, and benefiting students with diverse educational trajectories. |
| Keywords: | Vocational Education, Career and Technical Education, Labor Market Outcomes, Human Capital, NLSY97 |
| JEL: | I28 J24 J26 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:340112 |
| By: | Valentin Kecht; Alessandro Lizzeri; Farzad Saidi |
| Abstract: | This paper documents that the age at which CEOs are appointed has risen sharply over the past several decades. Using newly assembled data covering a wide set of firms, we show that this increase is concentrated outside the largest listed firms and driven primarily by longer and more diverse external career paths prior to CEO appointment. These patterns are difficult to reconcile with explanations based on demographics, schooling, or tenure, and are instead consistent with a matching framework in which rising demand for generalist human capital leads firms to trade off peak ability for accumulated experience. We investigate the forces behind this shift. Using variation in consulting networks, we establish that firms place greater weight on diversified managerial experience as operating environments have become increasingly uncertain and complex. We also provide evidence for a supply-side response in which prospective CEOs broaden their skill portfolio as demand for generalist skills rises. |
| JEL: | J10 J21 J24 M12 M51 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35089 |
| By: | Yadav, Anil (Central Bank of Ireland); McHale, John (University of Galway, Ireland); Galetti, Jefferson RB (University of Galway, Ireland) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how skill mismatch, particularly in digital skills, constrains occupational mobility. Using worker transition data from the Irish Labour Force Survey and skill vectors from the ESCO database, we construct occupation-level mismatch measures and estimate their effect on worker flows in a framework combining matching and gravity models. Greater skill mismatch significantly reduces occupational mobility, with stronger constraints on transitions between digitally intensive occupations. We also document substantial heterogeneity in bilateral mobility costs and show that occupations that are easier to enter are harder to exit, creating bottlenecks. These findings highlight the importance of retraining policies, especially those supporting digital skill acquisition, to improve labour market adaptability |
| Keywords: | Occupational Mobility; Skill mismatch; Tasks; Mobility costs. |
| JEL: | J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:wpaper:04/rt/26 |
| By: | Coffey, Stephanie (Saint Anselm College); Goodman, Joshua (Boston University); Schwartz, Amy (University of Delaware); Stiefel, Leanna (New York University); Winters, Marcus (Boston University); Yoon, Yunee (Boston University) |
| Abstract: | Special education serves more than one in seven U.S. students yet its causal impact remains understudied. Using longitudinal data from Massachusetts, Indiana, and Connecticut, we estimate the effect of individualized supports with an event-study design that tracks achievement around initial classification. Students' scores decline prior to placement and rise sharply afterward, yielding a consistent V-shaped pattern. Within three years, achievement is 0.2-0.4σ higher than counterfactual trends imply. Gains are similar across disability categories and subgroups, are not driven by testing accommodations, and remain under conservative assumptions. Individualized supports substantially increase learning productivity. |
| Keywords: | special education, human capital, treatment effects, education policy |
| JEL: | I21 I28 H52 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18531 |
| By: | Gabriel Burdin; Ryo Kambayashi; Takao Kato |
| Abstract: | How do limits on working hours affect firms, workers, and households? This paper answers this question by analyzing Japan's 2018Work Style Reform (WSR), which introduced the first binding cap on overtime hours. Using establishment payroll data and worker surveys in a difference-in-differences design, we show that the reform reduced monthly overtime by 5 hours (25%) and compressed the distribution of overtime within firms. Total earnings fell by 1.4% due to the effect of lower overtime pay. The reform also narrowed overtime gaps between standard and nonstandard jobs and reduced gender differences in long hours. Consistent with a reduction in the importance of extreme overtime as a screening device, women gained increased access to standard, career-track positions. We further document improvements in life and leisure satisfaction among female workers, but not among men. These gender differences are not explained by changes in perceived work intensification or time use. Instead, men partially substituted unpaid for paid overtime, consistent with the absence of well-being gains among male workers. Finally, exploiting information on spouses’ working hours, we find suggestive evidence of cross-spousal spillovers on women’s well-being, consistent with household-level complementarities. |
| Keywords: | Working Time Regulations, Overtime, Wages, Employment, Subjective Well-being, Gender, Japan, Work Style Reform Jel Classification: J16, J22, J23, J41 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usi:wpaper:942 |
| By: | Helal, Al Mansor (University of Arkansas); Hiraki, Ryotaro (University of Arkansas); Patrinos, Harry (University of Arkansas, Fayetteville) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the economic returns to education in the U.S. using 2024 CPS data and compares Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression with a Double Machine Learning (DML) framework incorporating models such as random forests, boosted trees, lasso, GAMs, and neural networks (MLP). Results show consistent returns of 8 to 9 percent per additional year of schooling across methods. Simulations reveal that all predictors perform well under linear assumptions if hyperparameters are optimally adjusted, while OLS/Lasso suffer from nonlinearity. Findings suggest that OLS remains robust in low-dimensional, near-linear contexts, offering practical guidance for economists and policymakers balancing model complexity and interpretability in education research. |
| Keywords: | returns to education, machine learning |
| JEL: | I20 J31 J24 D62 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18523 |
| By: | Malacrino, Davide (International Monetary Fund); Nocito, Samuel (Sapienza University of Rome); Saggio, Raffaele (University of British Columbia) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of a reform aimed at expediting graduation times in Italian universities by reducing the number of exams students must pass in order to graduate. Using event-study estimates that leverage the reform's staggered implementation, we find that this policy led to an increase in on-time graduation rates but also resulted in a decreased probability of employment one-year post-graduation. However, this negative effect reverses into a positive one in the medium run. We show that these patterns are explained by students using the time gained from earlier graduation to pursue additional educational qualifications. |
| Keywords: | higher education, policy evaluation, time to graduation, labor outcomes |
| JEL: | I23 I26 I28 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18530 |
| By: | Pinjas Albagli; Rui Costa; Stephen Machin |
| Abstract: | When minimum wage increases impose a cost shock on employers of low wage workers, there are a variety of ways in which firms can adjust. Rather than study the main focal point of much minimum wage research, possible labour demand adjustment, this paper considers a more understudied angle. It examines whether firms can offset the cost shock through changing non-wage aspects of work related to the nature of work. This includes altering employment composition in the workplace, the use of alternative work arrangements and redefining job contracts. Whether these alter in response to minimum wages is studied through the lens of the UK's 2016 National Living Wage (NLW) introduction. In terms of traditionally studied outcomes, the NLW boosted worker wages, but with no change in total employment. Instead, firms did indeed adjust operations through changes in employment composition and by altering employment contracts. These non-labour demand adjustments of employment relations show how employment stability can be maintained in response to minimum wages as employers can restructure work through within-firm job composition and contracts. |
| Keywords: | minimum wages, employment composition, alternative work arrangements, job contracts |
| Date: | 2026–04–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2173 |
| By: | Madison Dell; Enzo Brox; Patricia Palffy; Claudio Schilter; Uschi Backes-Gellner |
| Abstract: | We study how choice architecture in online platforms shapes high-stakes occupational choices through two behavioral mechanisms: motivated reasoning and cognitive load. Using detailed process data from a large online job board and exploiting a quasi-experimental setting, we leverage two sources of exogenous variation in the presentation of occupation recommendations. First, we use random variation in the rank order of equally well-matched occupations to study the effects of motivated reasoning. Our results show that rank order strongly increases the level of users' engagement on the platform and, consequently, the number of occupations to which they apply. Second, we exploit a redesign that transformed the occupation recommendations from a static, text-heavy list into an interactive and visually enriched presentation. The redesign was neither announced nor anticipated, which allows for causal interpretation. We find that this small redesign significantly increases the number of occupations to which users apply, supporting our hypothesis that it reduces cognitive load, leading to increased use of a watch list that keeps more occupations in jobseekers' memory. Our findings provide large-scale field evidence showing that even small changes in platform design significantly and strongly shape consequential career choices. |
| Keywords: | Occupational choice, Choice architecture, Recommender systems, Motivated reasoning, Cognitive load |
| JEL: | D91 J24 D83 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0255 |
| By: | Breulet, Anaïs (RWTH Aachen University); Grund, Christian (RWTH Aachen University) |
| Abstract: | Performance appraisals are one of the most widely used human resource management practices. This study investigates the relationship between performance appraisals and sleep satisfaction using large-scale, representative data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). Sleep satisfaction is used as a comprehensive measure of perceived restfulness and sleep quality. The results show that performance appraisals are negatively associated with sleep satisfaction, even after controlling for a wide range of socio-demographic, work-related, and personality characteristics. This negative relationship is particularly pronounced when evaluations are tied to short-term financial outcomes. These findings highlight that performance evaluation processes may generate psychological pressure that undermines employee´s ability to rest and recover. |
| Keywords: | performance appraisals, sleep satisfaction, monetary incentives, German Socio-Economic Panel |
| JEL: | M5 J28 J81 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18541 |
| By: | Sonedda, Daniela (University of Insubria); Matranga, Marcello (University of Piemonte Orientale); Vernasca, Gianluigi (University of Essex); Rossi, Mariacristina (University of Turin); Figari, Francesco (University of Piemonte Orientale) |
| Abstract: | We study the interaction between need- and merit-based university grants in a non-selective higher education system. Using administrative data from a northern Italian university, we analyse how eligibility criteria affect enrolment, academic performance, and labour market outcomes. We document a trade-off between the two criteria, with merit requirements acting as endogenous screening. We rationalise this trade-off with a three-period model predicting that merit thresholds increase effort among students with higher expected ability but may discourage effort among students at risk of falling short, as losing the grant reduces expected utility. We support these predictions using a difference-in-differences estimator for multiple treatments, separately analysing students switching into and out of need- and merit-based eligibility. Our results show that grants target disadvantaged but academically strong students, generate perverse incentive effects that vary by gender, and fail to retain a substantial share of initial recipients. |
| Keywords: | university grants, educational outcomes, non selective higher education |
| JEL: | I22 I23 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18547 |
| By: | Delaney, Judith (University of Bath); Devereux, Paul (University College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | We use population-level administrative data on secondary school students in England to examine how mathematical and verbal skills shape educational and labour market outcomes. Tracking cohorts from age 16 through higher education and into employment up to age 34, we show that these skills operate through distinct pathways. Verbal skills strongly predict educational attainment - including university enrolment, completion, and postgraduate study - while mathematical skills yield substantially larger earnings returns. At ages 30-34, moving from the 25th to the 75th percentile of the mathematics distribution is associated with 29% higher earnings, compared with 14% for verbal skills. This divergence is partly driven by field-of-study choice: individuals with stronger verbal skills are more likely to enter fields with higher completion rates but lower pay, while those with stronger mathematical skills sort into STEM and other high-paying fields. Gender differences in skills explain the female advantage in higher education and part of the STEM gap, but have limited impact on the gender earnings gap due to offsetting effects across these channels. |
| Keywords: | math skills, verbal skills, college, field of study, STEM |
| JEL: | I26 I24 I21 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18542 |
| By: | Angelucci, Manuela (University of Texas at Austin); Fabregas, Raissa (UT Austin); Vazquez, Antonia (UT Austin) |
| Abstract: | AI-powered mental health apps have attracted growing interest as a low-cost way to expand care. Yet questions remain about their effectiveness, safety, and whether they may crowd out psychotherapy. We evaluate one such app in a randomized controlled trial among 1, 964 Mexican women with mild to severe psychological distress. Over six months, app access improved mental health by 0.3 standard deviations with no evidence of harm, improved sleep quality, increased healthful behaviors, and reduced missed work, yielding considerably larger benefits than costs. Treated participants were also more likely to seek traditional psychotherapy, but this increase does not explain most of the mental health gains. App use was high in the first month but then declined, as is common in digital interventions. Despite this drop in use, treatment effects persisted. Participants continued to implement practices promoted by the app, suggesting that even short-term engagement can produce durable improvements through sustained behavioral change. |
| Keywords: | digital mental health, AI-powered care, well-being, randomized controlled trial, Mexico, behavioral change, mental health apps, sleep quality, labor productivity, psychotherapy |
| JEL: | I12 O33 J24 C93 I15 I31 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18538 |
| By: | Daiji KAWAGUCHI; Kazuha OGAWA |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the effects of the overtime cap introduced in Japan in 2019—set at 360 hours annually (approximately 47 total work hours per week)—on working hours, wages, task allocation, skill investment, side-job engagement, and multiple dimensions of worker well-being. Drawing on panel data from 2015 to 2023, we find that the cap significantly reduced long working hours without adversely affecting wages or skill investment. Additional analysis indicates that firms adjusted primarily through task reorganization rather than by increasing work intensity, while some workers offset reduced working hours by taking on side jobs. Overall, the reform improved self-reported health and work–life balance, though these gains did not translate into higher overall subjective well-being. These results suggest that in labor markets characterized by persistently long working hours, statutory overtime caps can enhance worker welfare without producing adverse labor market consequences. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26034 |
| By: | Bick, Alexander (St. Louis Fed & CEPR); Blandin, Adam (Vanderbilt University); Deming, David (Harvard University); Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola (WZB & Goethe University & CEPR); Jessen, Jonas (WZB & IAB) |
| Abstract: | This paper combines international evidence from worker and firm surveys conducted in 2025 and 2026 to document large gaps in AI adoption, both between the US and Europe and across European countries. Cross-country differences in worker demographics and firm composition account for an important share of these gaps. AI adoption, within and across countries, is also closely linked to firm personnel management practices and whether firms actively encourage AI use by workers. Micro-level evidence suggests that AI generates meaningful time savings for many workers. At the macro level, in recent years industries with higher AI adoption rates have experienced faster productivity growth. While we do not establish causality, this relationship is statistically significant and similar in magnitude in Europe and the US. We do not find clear evidence that industry-level AI adoption is associated with employment changes. We discuss limitations of existing data and outline priorities for future data collection to better assess the productivity and labor market effects of AI. |
| Keywords: | generative AI, technology adoption, labor productivity |
| JEL: | J24 M16 O14 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18521 |
| By: | Bryson, Alex (University College London); Kauhanen, Antti (ETLA); Rouvinen, Petri (ETLA) |
| Abstract: | Utilizing nationally representative cross-sectional and longitudinal data from Finland (2018-2023), we provide a population-level assessment of the relationship between AI and worker well-being. Contrary to international evidence suggesting a positive or an inverted U-shaped relationship, we find no systematic association between AI use intensity and job satisfaction. However, we do find that work engagement is higher among employees who are personally involved with AI, with the strongest association among intensive users for whom AI is an essential part of their work. Furthermore, technology-replacement fears have remained stable despite rapid AI advancement and do not predict subsequent labour market transitions. An interpretation is that Finland's high-trust institutional environment and robust social safety nets may effectively moderate the disruptive psychological and economic shocks typically associated with rapid technological change. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, job satisfaction, work engagement, technology-related fears, labour market transitions |
| JEL: | J28 L23 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18540 |
| By: | David N. Wasser |
| Abstract: | I investigate whether the effects of UI extensions are different for workers exposed to higher levels of local labor market concentration, a potential source of employer market power. I exploit measurement error in state unemployment rates that led to quasi-random assignment of UI durations in the U.S. during the Great Recession. Using matched employer-employee data from the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics program, I find that UI extensions lengthen nonemployment durations by one week and cause economically meaningful but not statistically significant increases in earnings. The UI-earnings effect is significantly lower at higher levels of concentration, while there is no difference in the UI-duration effect. The lower UI-earnings effect is driven by the extremes of the distribution of concentration. My results suggest that match improvements from UI are attenuated at higher levels of concentration. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment insurance, labor market concentration, local labor markets, earnings, nonemployment duration |
| JEL: | J31 J42 J65 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-24 |
| By: | Lansink, Xander (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Labour market and training); Montizaan, Raymond (RS: GSBE UM-BIC, ROA / Labour market and training); Patel, Salman (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, ROA / Labour market and training) |
| Abstract: | Rising statutory retirement ages and population aging have increased interest in why individuals work beyond retirement. This systematic literature review synthesizes evidence from 103 studies, including 11 with causal designs, on post-retirement employment. We examine the roles of financial incentives, health, job characteristics, intrinsic motivation, family, and institutional context. Causal studies show modest effects of pension reforms, tax incentives, and abolitions of mandatory retirement, while employer practices and workplace flexibility strongly shape opportunities. Observational evidence highlights heterogeneous patterns across socioeconomic groups, sectors, and welfare-state regimes: financial necessity dominates in liberal systems, whereas voluntary engagement and identity motives are more important in social-democratic contexts. The findings underscore the need for multidimensional, coordinated policy approaches, combining macro-level incentives with firm-level practices and flexible work arrangements, to effectively extend working lives. |
| Keywords: | Post-retirement employment, Determinants, Institutional Context |
| JEL: | J26 J14 J32 H55 |
| Date: | 2026–04–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umarot:2026002 |
| By: | Fernández, Gastón P. (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)); Kovaleva, Mariia (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how personality shapes intra-household bargaining, marital stability, and the allocation of resources within marriages. We use rich data from the HILDA Survey that combines information on spouses' personalities, wages, time use, and marital histories. In the data, personality is strongly associated with labor-market productivity, marriage and divorce patterns, and the division of paid work and childcare within couples. To interpret these patterns, we estimate a life-cycle collective household model with limited commitment and endogenous marriage and divorce. Within this framework, personality affects: individual wage processes, the quality of marital matches, and preferences over home production. We use the estimated model to quantify the mechanisms through which personality generates heterogeneity in household behavior. The results show that personality matters not only through wage differences but also by altering spouses' outside options and the set of feasible allocations. Counterfactual simulations highlight how personality influences specialization patterns, the evolution of bargaining power over the life cycle, and the way welfare losses from adverse shocks are shared between spouses. |
| Keywords: | marriage, limited commitment, personality, intra-household bargaining |
| JEL: | D10 D13 D91 J12 J22 R20 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18519 |
| By: | Cerqua, Augusto (Sapienza University of Rome); Nocito, Samuel (Sapienza University of Rome); Pinto, Gabriele (Sapienza University of Rome) |
| Abstract: | Local governments in advanced democracies have increasingly struggled to attract political candidates, weakening electoral competition and accountability at the municipal level. While several factors may contribute to this trend, politicians' salaries represent one of the few policy levers that can be directly adjusted by policymakers. We study a large-scale reform that substantially increased local politicians' pay, exploiting quasi-experimental variation in election timing across municipalities. We find that higher salaries increase political entry, particularly among first-time candidates. Importantly, effects are heterogeneous across local contexts: in less affluent municipalities and in areas with lower entry barriers, higher pay also raises female candidacies and their probability of election. In the poorest areas, the reform further alters the composition of local political elites, shifting recruitment toward candidates with different educational and occupational backgrounds. |
| Keywords: | local governments, politicians' wages, time-shifted control design |
| JEL: | D04 D72 J45 C13 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18527 |
| By: | Steven J. Davis; Nicholas Bloom; Mihai A. Codreanu |
| Abstract: | COVID-19 brought a sharp, unanticipated increase in the usefulness and value of technologies that support work from home (WFH). To investigate how this shock influenced the direction of technical change, we examine the text in 5.6 million U.S. patent applications published from 2010 to 2026. The share of patent applications that advances technologies in support of WFH rose by about two thirds within three years after the pandemic struck and remains about 50% above pre-pandemic levels five years later. The lasting rise in the WFH share of new applications concentrates in telecommunications – especially video conferencing, speech recognition, and audio processing. It is driven overwhelmingly by US corporations rather than foreign assignees or universities. In short, we find evidence that a sudden, lasting rise in WFH redirected innovation to technologies that support it. |
| JEL: | J22 L63 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35083 |
| By: | Cutanda, Antonio (Universidad de Valencia, Valencia, Spain); Sanchis, Juan A. (Universidad de Valencia and ERICES, Valencia, Spain) |
| Abstract: | As the proportion of the Spanish population entering retirement continues to grow, the sustainability of the pay-as-you-go social security system is facing increasing pressure. This study examines the implications of this demographic shift on consumption patterns in Spain from 2002 to 2017, focusing specifically on the retirement consumption puzzle using data from the Survey of Households Finances (SHF). Our findings, obtained from various estimation methods, suggest that the average decline in non-durable consumption at retirement is approximately 20%. This is in line with results from other developed economies and exceeds previous estimates for Spain. However, our analysis provides inconclusive results regarding spending on food and beverages. Finally, we observe no significant differences in the responses of working individuals and retirees to changes in interest rates, which suggests that monetary policy does not necessarily have to be adjusted due to the fact that the population is ageing. |
| Keywords: | Consumer spending, Panel data, Regression discontinuity, Instrumental variables, Intertemporal Substitution for consumption |
| JEL: | C23 C26 D12 D15 E21 J26 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eec:wpaper:2604 |
| By: | Juan Sebastián Ivars (University of Balearic Islands) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how market competition shapes the design and provision of incentive contracts for managers. We study a moral hazard setting where two principals each employ a risk neutral agent (manager). Each agent makes a decision on effort leading stochastically to an outcome. These outcomes are observable for each principal and used to design incentives based on their joint realizations. We isolate the effect of market competition in two channels: market information and market structure. First, market information captures the correlation between the outcomes generated by the agents. Second, market structure indicates the profits that each principal obtains from a given realization of agents’ outcomes. As a result, the incentive schemes that are optimal from an informational perspective need not be used in equilibrium when competition reduces the returns to effort. This framework provides a unified explanation for variation in incentive design across competitive environments and clarifies how competition affects managerial discipline through the profitability of incentive provision rather than through the design of performance measures. |
| Keywords: | Moral Hazard, Principal-Agent, Competition, Managerial Incentives |
| JEL: | D21 D43 D86 M12 L13 J33 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:392 |