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on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages |
| By: | Pawel Adrjan; Jonas Jessen; Carlos Victoria Lanzón |
| Abstract: | We examine whether restricting temporary contracts increases firms' investment in worker training, exploiting Spain's 2022 labour market reform. Using 3.1 million online job postings from 2018 to 2024, we implement a difference-in-differences design that leverages pre-reform variation in reliance on temporary contracts across occupations. More exposed occupations shifted toward permanent hiring and increased advertised training relative to less exposed occupations. Training rose by 4.3 percentage points, fully closing the pre-reform gap by 2024. These results provide evidence that longer expected employment duration increases firms' investment in training, identifying a channel through which labour market regulation can shape human capital formation. |
| Keywords: | temporary employment, on-the-job training, human capital investment, employment contracts |
| JEL: | J24 J41 J63 J68 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12594 |
| By: | Alessandra Fenizia; Christos Makridis |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of the 2025 U.S. federal personnel reforms. Using a difference-in-differences design, we document a persistent decline in federal employment, employee engagement, and job satisfaction, alongside a temporary increase in burnout and job search activity. Subjective well-being also declines and remains depressed, indicating spillovers beyond the workplace. Effects are heterogeneous by political affiliation, with large responses among Democrats and Independents and muted responses among Republicans. We find no evidence of partisan differences in attrition, suggesting that deteriorating attitudes did not translate into sustained labor market exits or changes in workforce composition. |
| Keywords: | federal workforce; civil service reform; employee engagement; job satisfaction; public sector; Gallup Workforce Panel. |
| JEL: | J45 J28 H83 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2026-006 |
| By: | Kulshreshtha, Shobhit; Bhattacharya, Leena; van Soest, Arthur |
| Abstract: | Rising temperatures due to climate change pose significant challenges to how much and how effectively individuals can work, particularly in low- and middle-income countries such as India, where exposure to extreme heat is becoming more common. While existing research documents adverse effects of heat on labor outcomes, little is known about how individuals adjust their work patterns within a day. This study examines the impact of ambient temperature on time allocation, with a focus on intraday substitution of time spent on paid work. The study uses nationally representative data from the 2019 Indian Time Use Survey combined with high-frequency temperature data measured at 30-minute intervals. We estimate the effect of temperature on total daily time spent on paid work and on the likelihood of working during specific periods of the day. Our results show that extreme heat has limited effects on overall daily work hours but leads to substantial intraday reallocation of labor. Individuals shift work from the hottest periods midday toward early morning or late evening. This pattern is primarily driven by younger men and workers in self-employed or agricultural jobs, who have greater flexibility in their schedules and are more exposed to ambient heat. In contrast, salaried workers reduce work during peak heat without compensatory increases at other times. These findings highlight the importance of flexible work arrangements and targeted heat-mitigation policies to sustain productivity and worker well-being in a warming climate. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, time use, paid work, India |
| JEL: | J22 J24 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1738 |
| By: | Krafft, Caroline; Armas Montalvo, Carmen |
| Abstract: | High rates of unemployment and non-participation in the labor market are often attributed to labor market mismatch. This paper examines the mismatch between job seekers' expectations and Egypt's labor market realities. For the non-employed, analyses examine reservation wages and what occupations the unemployed would accept. For the employed, analyses explore skills and educational attainment relative to the skill and educational requirements of their jobs. The results demonstrate that the non-employed generally have reasonable wage expectations and are willing to accept public sector jobs, but these jobs, and to some degree formal private sector jobs, are not readily available. The non-employed, and especially women, are less likely to accept more readily available informal private sector employment. As a result of women being more selective in what employment they accept, among the employed, women's skills and qualifications better match their job requirements than men's, although overeducation and over-skill are substantial issues for both men and women. There are not differences in overeducation by vocational secondary specialization or among most higher education specializations, suggesting a pervasive problem of mismatch throughout the education system. |
| Keywords: | Mismatch, labor markets, education, skills, unemployment, reservation wages, Egypt |
| JEL: | J21 J23 J24 J31 J64 I21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1739 |
| By: | Deniz Dutz; Morten Håvarstein; Magne Mogstad; Alexander Torgovitsky |
| Abstract: | We study the identification of labor supply elasticities from kinked budget sets in a model with income effects and individual heterogeneity in the elasticities. We provide point and partial identification results for compensated elasticities, uncompensated elasticities, and income effects. We use administrative data to apply our results to the Norwegian tax system, which exhibits a kink for the self-employed. There is clear bunching around the kink point, suggesting that the self-employed respond to the change in incentives created by the kink. We find that the bounds are often tight even under weak assumptions. Our results show that uncompensated elasticities are close to zero and compensated elasticities are sufficiently small to conclude that the excess burden of taxation is low. |
| JEL: | C14 C18 H21 H24 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35047 |
| By: | István Boza (ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); Szabó Endre (ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Databank); Róbert Károlyi (ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies; Corvinus University of Budapest) |
| Abstract: | Immigrants’ economic integration remains one of the most debated aspects of international migration, as they often experience persistent employment and wage disadvantages compared to natives. We provide the first large-scale evidence on immigrant pay gaps in Hungary (and more generally from Central Eastern Europe) based on administrative matched employer–employee data. Contrary to the pattern documented in Western Europe and North America, most immigrant groups in Hungary earn more than native-born workers on average. We show that this advantage is largely explained by sorting: immigrants are disproportionately employed in higher-paying firms and higher-paying occupation–firm cells, rather than receiving higher pay than natives for the same job in the same workplace. Within-job pay differences are close to zero for transborder Hungarians (ethnic Hungarians born abroad) and remain small but positive for other immigrant groups. These results suggest that immigrant wage differentials in Hungary reflect employer demand and selective recruitment into relatively well-paying segments of the labor market, rather than systematic under or overpayment. Decomposition results (based on the AKM literature) reinforce our interpretation: immigrant–native wage differentials in Hungary are driven mainly by between-job sorting along skill composition and firm and occupation pay premia, not within-job pay inequality. |
| Keywords: | wage differentials, immigration, segregation, wage sorting |
| JEL: | J31 J61 J71 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2606 |
| By: | Zach Weingarten (University of Pennsylvania); Jere R. Behrman (University of Pennsylvania); Andrew Postlewaite (University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | Social-skill formation during adolescence depends on peer environments, but those environments are equilibrium outcomes shaped by individual choices. To account for this endogeneity, we develop and estimate a dynamic model in which parents invest in adolescents, adolescents choose whether to participate in social activities (athletics and extracurricular clubs), and these choices jointly determine the neighborhood-peer environment that influences the accumulation of social skills, cognitive skills, and mental health. The model matches empirical patterns of skill accumulation, parental investment, and activity participation among U.S. adolescents, and links terminal adolescent-skill stocks to adult educational attainment and labor-market outcomes. In policy counterfactuals, subsidizing parental investment generates large gains in college completion and earnings, and subsidizing club participation generates larger long-run gains than subsidizing athletic participation. We also find that a counterfactual that eliminates peer effects reduces athletic and club participation by 15 and 9 percentage points, terminal adolescent social and cognitive skills by 0.05–0.08 standard deviations, college completion by 3%, and adult income by nearly 1%. |
| Keywords: | social skills, skill formation, peer effects, parental investments, adolescent development, athletics, clubs |
| JEL: | I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:26-004 |
| By: | Okan Akarsu; Abdurrahman B. Aydemir; Muhammet Enes Cirakli; Huzeyfe Torun |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the labor market consequences of the devastating February 2023 Kahramanmaraþ earthquakes in Türkiye at the individual level. We combine firm-level financial statements with matched employer–employee data and track workers over a five-year period spanning both the pre- and post-disaster years. Causal effects are identified using a difference-in-differences strategy complemented by an event-study design. The results show that the earthquakes increased labor market exits by 2.5 percentage points, prolonged exits by 3 percentage points, and inter-provincial job transitions by 2 percentage points, while reducing annual wage growth of affected workers by 2.6 percent. Labor market impacts vary across worker and firm characteristics and intensify with earthquake severity. Losses were more pronounced among workers in smaller firms, in lower-wage jobs, and with less experience, as well as among women overall. By contrast, construction workers and inter-provincial movers saw relative gains. We also find sharper employment and wage declines among workers in high-leverage firms, rural areas, and sectors more likely to be affected by post-disaster demand conditions, highlighting key mechanisms behind differences in labor market resilience. |
| Keywords: | Earthquake, Labor market, Wages, Migration, Matched employer-employee data, Difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | J21 J31 R11 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2607 |
| By: | Jose Garcia-Louzao; Alessandro Ruggieri |
| Abstract: | We exploit a novel opportunity to study the dynamics of wage inequality and labor market competition over the course of economic development. Our context is Lithuania, where two decades of sustained growth and labor market tightening coincided with a substantial decline in wage inequality. We first fit a two-way fixed-effects model with worker and firm heterogeneity and document that the compression of the variance of firm fixed effects has been the main source of the fall in inequality. Guided by a standard dynamic monopsony model, we then estimate firms' labor supply elasticities and show that labor market competition has increased over the same period. Finally, we construct a shift-share instrument and provide evidence that new job opportunities created by the accession to the European Union in 2004 contributed to the fall in inequality through their impact on labor market competition in Lithuania. |
| JEL: | J31 J42 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1570 |
| By: | Hideo Konishi (Boston College); Ryo Tsukamoto (Boston College) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, lumpy technological innovations have occurred with increasing frequency, affecting workers’ wages in ways that depend on their skills and abilities. This paper proposes a framework to evaluate which types of workers gain or lose during the interim period following the introduction of a major technological innovation. Using a cooperative game-theoretic approach, we develop a model of large labor markets with finitely many types of atomless workers and a finite set of available technologies, each described by a pair consisting of a labor input vector and an output value. The equilibrium wage structure is characterized by the f-core (the coalition structure core with finite membership coalitions as in Kaneko and Wooders (1986) of an atomless transferable utility game generated by the model. The generically unique equilibrium wage rates can be computed efficiently, as the f-core allocation maximizes total production value. Within this framework, we analyze how the equilibrium wage structure for heterogeneous worker types changes when a new technology becomes available. We show that, under mild conditions, the introduction of a relevant and efficient technology almost always disadvantages at least one type of labor, while benefiting another. However, when there are more than two labor types, identifying which types gain and which lose is generally nontrivial. We also show that if the population of a given worker type increases, holding available technologies fixed, the wage rate for that type weakly decreases. |
| Keywords: | technological innovation, wage structure, f-core, large game, activity analysis |
| JEL: | C71 D33 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–04–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:1109 |
| By: | Ilieva, Boryana; Batbayar, Egshiglen; Breunig, Christoph; Haan, Peter |
| Abstract: | We propose a new approach to estimate selection-corrected quantiles of the gender wage gap. Our method employs instrumental variables that explain variation in the latent variable but, conditional on the latent process, do not directly a_ect selection. We provide semiparametric identi_cation of the quantile parameters without imposing parametric restrictions on the selection probability, derive the asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimator based on constrained selection probability weighting, and demonstrate how the approach applies to the Roy model of labor supply. Using German administrative data, we analyze the distribution of the gender gap in full-time earnings. We _nd pronounced positive selection among women at the lower end, especially those with less education, which widens the gender gap in this segment, and strong positive selection among highly educated men at the top, which narrows the gender wage gap at upper quantiles. JEL Classification: C14, C21, J16, J21, J31 |
| Keywords: | endogenous sample attrition, instrumental variables, inverse probability weighting, semi-parametric inference, wage inequality |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263219 |
| By: | Nicholas Bloom; Gordon B. Dahl; Dan-Olof Rooth |
| Abstract: | There has been a dramatic rise in disability employment since the pandemic. At the same time, work from home (WFH) has risen four-fold. This paper asks whether the two are causally related. Controlling for compositional changes and labor market tightness, a 1 percentage point increase in WFH increases full-time employment by 1.0% for individuals with a physical disability. The postpandemic increase in working from home explains 68%-85% of the rise in full-time employment. Wage data suggests that WFH increased the supply of workers with a physical disability, likely by reducing commuting costs and enabling better control of working conditions. |
| Keywords: | work from home, disability employment |
| JEL: | J14 J42 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12604 |
| By: | Louis-Pierre Lepage; Heather Sarsons; Michael Thaler |
| Abstract: | There is widespread opposition to affirmative action policies. We study whether personal disappointments shape preferences for such policies. Specifically, we test whether individuals' college admissions outcomes, relative to their expectations, influence their attitudes toward affirmative action policies. Using a retrospective survey among recent White and Asian college applicants, we find that disappointed individuals—those who were admitted to fewer schools than anticipated—are relatively more likely to believe that affirmative action played an important role in their admissions outcomes, have the lowest support for affirmative action policies, and are more willing to donate to an anti-affirmative action organization. They also hold more negative views about the academic qualifications of under-represented minorities. To isolate the causal effect of "bad news" from selection, we conduct a complementary survey experiment with parents of future college applicants. We randomize whether parents receive information about their child's admissions prospects. Providing bad news to overconfident parents causes them to increase opposition to affirmative action and donate to an anti-affirmative action organization. Results suggest that some individuals attribute bad news to external factors, specifically policies that benefit out-groups. |
| JEL: | D83 J78 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35045 |
| By: | Maria Giovanna Bosco (Department of Management, Marche Polytechnic University, Italy); Elisa Valeriani (Department of Law, University of Modena and Reggio-Emilia, Italy); Linda Armano (Interconnected Nord-Est Innovation Ecosystem - Temporary Project Centre, Ca' Foscari University of Venice) |
| Abstract: | The study rigorously analyzes the occupational trajectories of foreign- and native-born workers in Italy's Emilia-Romagna region. Using a comprehensive administrative dataset spanning 2008-2015, we assess patterns of upward professional mobility and empirically test the widely discussed stepping-stone hypothesis by examining job transitions across skill levels. Our empirical findings reveal a persistent and significant disparity. Specifically, foreign workers have a substantially higher probability of remaining in low-skilled occupations, indicating limited upward mobility. We also separately analyze the stability of initial employment and the incidence of subsequent unemployment spells, revealing clear and quantifiable differences between the two cohorts. These results provide robust evidence for the existence of an ethnicity penalty and a low-skill penalty that systematically impede professional advancement within the regional labor market. This form of occupational segregation, differentiated by ethnic origin, is consistent with patterns observed in other Southern European and Asian economies. |
| Keywords: | Foreign workers, low-skill jobs, occupational mobility |
| JEL: | J20 J21 J41 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wpaper:507 |
| By: | Nuriye Melisa Bilgin; Gianmarco Ottaviano |
| Abstract: | We study how digital infrastructure relaxes constraints on the diffusion and economic impact of artificial intelligence (AI). Using administrative data and a nationally representative enterprise survey from Turkey (2021-2024), we document significant disparities in AI adoption. Adoption is concentrated among large firms and in regions with high-speed broadband and proximity to data centers, particularly for software-intensive and cloud-based applications. To identify causal effects, we exploit the staggered expansion of Turkey's national natural gas pipeline network, which serves as a conduit for fiber-optic deployment. Because pipeline routing is determined by energy distribution priorities rather than digital demand, it provides plausibly exogenous variation in connectivity. Difference-in-differences estimates show that improved connectivity significantly increases AI adoption, particularly for software-intensive technologies and among small and medium-sized enterprises. Instrumental-variable estimates indicate that infrastructure-driven AI adoption raises labor productivity and export intensity while shifting labor composition toward ICT-related roles. These findings highlight digital infrastructure as a primary determinant of both the pace of AI diffusion and its resulting economic returns. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, broadband, technology diffusion, firm productivity, cloud computing |
| Date: | 2026–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2172 |
| By: | Zhiyang Jia; Snorre Skagseth; Thor O. Thoresen; Trine E. Vattø (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | Whenstructural labor supply models are unavailable or impractical, the paper proposes a practical method for incorporating behavioral responses into static taxbenefit microsimulation models. Using elasticity estimates from the literature, the proposed external evidence procedure offers a flexible and transparent tool for incor porating behavioral effects into microsimulation. We distinguish between responses in income both at the in tensive and extensive margins. The framework is implemented within the Norwegian LOTTE microsimulation system and illustrated through two policy reforms: (i) a five percentage-point increase in the two top brackets of the labor income tax and (ii) the introduction of a work-related income deduction. Empirical results show that behavioral adjustments substantially offset mechanical revenue effects for high-income tax increases, while the work deduction generates positive participation responses but amplifies revenue losses due to phase-out ef fects. |
| Keywords: | microsimulation; tax-benefit model; behavioral response; quasi-experimental evidence |
| JEL: | C53 H24 H31 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:1034 |
| By: | Hailemariam, Abebe; Lukas, Erica; Mavisakalyan, Astghik; True, Jacqui |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of proximity to mining activity on men's adherence to traditional masculinity norms. Combining geocoded survey data with detailed spatial information on mining activity across 37 countries, we employ an instrumental variable strategy that exploits exogenous variation in geological mineral endowments and global commodity prices to address endogeneity concerns. We find that residing within 20 km of an active mine increases conformity to traditional masculinity norms approximately by 0.29 points on a four-point scale. The effects are concentrated in the violence and help avoidance dimensions, indicating that men living near active mines display greater tolerance of aggression and stronger resistance to help-seeking - traits closely aligned with the masculine culture of extractive workplaces. Heterogeneity analyses further show that these effects are strongest among lower-educated, unmarried, and older men. The results are robust to an alternative difference-in-differences identification strategy comparing areas near active versus inactive mines and to the use of an alternative measure of traditional gender role attitudes as the outcome variable. The analysis of mechanisms suggests that mining proximity increases male employment in the extractive sector while reducing female labor force participation in surrounding communities. These findings provide new insights into how extractive industries can shape and reinforce traditional masculinity norms in mining communities. |
| Keywords: | Mining, Conformity to Masculine Norms Inventory, Gender Norms, Gender Equality, Sustainable Development Goal 5 |
| JEL: | J16 J24 O13 Q33 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1742 |
| By: | Cristiano C. Carvalho; Trine E. Vattø (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how an often-overlooked source of pay transparency—the public disclosure of tax information—affects gender wage gaps. We exploit a 2001 change in Norway that made individual tax returns searchable online. Using matched employer–employee data and a difference in-differences design, we find that within-firm gender wage gaps fell by 2.2 percentage points (8.7 percent), driven by rising female wages. Effects are strongest in private-sector firms, industries with initially larger gaps, and municipalities that previously lacked easy access to printed tax lists. Wage gains are concentrated among job-changing women, suggesting that broad-based transparency mainly operates through improved information for job search. |
| Keywords: | Gender Wage Gap; Income Transparency; Public Disclosure of Tax Information |
| JEL: | J16 J31 J38 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:1033 |
| By: | Bryson, Alex; Kauhanen, Antti; Rouvinen, Petri |
| Abstract: | Abstract Utilizing nationally representative cross-sectional and longitudinal data from Finland (2018–2023), we provide a population-level assessment of the relationship between AI and worker well-being. Contrary to international evidence suggesting a positive or an inverted U-shaped relationship, we find no systematic association between AI use intensity and job satisfaction. However, we do find that work engagement is higher among employees who are personally involved with AI, with the strongest association among intensive users for whom AI is an essential part of their work. Furthermore, technology-replacement fears have remained stable despite rapid AI advancement and do not predict subsequent labour market transitions. An interpretation is that Finland’s high-trust institutional environment and robust social safety nets may effectively moderate the disruptive psychological and economic shocks typically associated with rapid technological change. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence, Job satisfaction, Work engagement, Technology-related fears, Labour market transitions |
| JEL: | J28 L23 |
| Date: | 2026–04–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:137 |
| By: | Ezra Karger; Otto Kuusela; Jason Abaluck; Kevin A. Bryan; Basil Halperin; Todd R. Jones; Connacher Murphy; Philip Trammell; Matt Reynolds; Dan Mayland; Ria Viswanathan; Ananaya Mittal; Rebecca Ceppas de Castro; Josh Rosenberg; Philip Tetlock |
| Abstract: | We elicit forecasts of how AI will affect the U.S. economy, comparing the beliefs of five groups: academic economists, employees at AI companies, policy researchers focused on AI, highly accurate forecasters, and the general public. The median respondent in each group expects substantial advances in AI capabilities by 2030, small declines in labor force participation consistent with demographic shifts, and an annual GDP growth rate of 2.5%, which exceeds both the typical medium-run (2.0%) and long-run (1.7%) baseline forecasts from government agencies and private-sector forecasters. Conditional on a “rapid” AI progress scenario, in which AI systems surpass human performance on many cognitive and physical tasks, experts forecast substantial, though not historically unprecedented, economic shifts: annualized GDP growth rising to around 4% and the labor force participation rate falling from its current level of 62% to 55% by 2050, with roughly half of that decline—equivalent to around 10 million lost jobs—attributable to AI. A variance decomposition suggests that expert disagreement about these effects is driven primarily by different beliefs about the economic effects of highly capable AI systems rather than by disagreement about the pace of AI progress. These forecasts map onto notably different policy preferences across groups: experts strongly favor targeted measures such as worker retraining, whereas the general public supports both targeted programs and broader interventions, including a job guarantee and universal basic income. |
| JEL: | C83 E27 J21 O33 O47 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35046 |
| By: | Benzarti, Youssef; Harju, Jarkko; Matikka, Tuomas; Mattinen, Ella; Tazhitdinova, Alisa |
| Abstract: | This paper studies social insurance contribution choices, adverse selection, and moral hazard among Finnish entrepreneurs. We exploit quasi-exogenous variation from a reform that relaxed mandatory contribution requirements for a subset of entrepreneurs, combining administrative registry data with linked survey evidence. Entrepreneurs who gained discretion reduced their contributions by 16%, on average, relative to entrepreneurs subject to a strict mandate. Using this variation, causal tests of anticipatory responses and moral hazard as well as positive correlation tests, we show that moral hazard and adverse selection effects are near zero in this market. Survey responses help illuminate the mechanisms underlying these results. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurs, social insurance, moral hazard, adverse selection, H55, J32, L26, fi=Sosiaaliturva|sv=Social trygghet|en=Social security|, |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fer:wpaper:185 |
| By: | Simone Voigt (first name last name) (Paderborn University) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates the relationship between market power and female board representation in large commercial banks in the EU-27 from 2020 to 2024. Using the Lerner Index as a proxy for market power and hand-collected data on female board representation, the findings suggest that increasing market power is detrimental to a bank’s likelihood of reaching the 33 percent gender diversity target for the board of directors, as proposed by the EU Directive EU2022/2381. The negative effect is especially pronounced for listed banks and systemically important banks, highlighting the importance of considering banking market structures (market power and competition) when enforcing regulatory diversity standards for those banks in particular. (abstract of the paper) |
| Keywords: | Market Power, Competition, Gender Diversity, Bankking, Female Board Representaton (keywords) |
| JEL: | G21 G34 J71 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:dispap:175 |
| By: | Maridueña-Larrea, Ángel; Martín-Román, Ángel L. |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the empirical validity, heterogeneity, and spatial dependence of Okun’s Law in a global setting. Using annual data for 163 countries over the period 1992–2023, we estimate country specific unemployment–output elasticities under two standard specifications (output gap and first difference models) and allow for cyclical asymmetries by distinguishing expansionary and recessionary phases. The results indicate that Okun’s coefficient is negative and statistically significant in most countries, although its magnitude is highly heterogeneous and varies systematically across income groups. Controlling for the common 2020 shock (COVID 19) does not meaningfully alter statistical significance for most countries, but it generates economically relevant shifts in the coefficient’s magnitude for a non negligible subset, thus improving cross country comparability. We also document pronounced asymmetry: elasticities are, on average, stronger during recessions than expansions, particularly among middle and high income economies. Moran’s I statistics reveal positive and significant spatial autocorrelation in cyclical sensitivities across alternative k nearest neighbour weighting matrices, with stronger dependence during recessions. These findings motivate the design of countercyclical labour market policies tailored to structural heterogeneity and coordinated regionally during downturns. |
| Keywords: | Okun's Law; Economic growth; Unemployment; Spatial dependence; Economic integration. |
| JEL: | C21 C32 E32 J21 R23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128297 |