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on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages |
| By: | Aidan Buehler; Joshua D. Gottlieb; Jeffrey Hicks; Lisa Laun; Mårten Palme; Maria Polyakova; Victoria Udalova; Maria Ventura |
| Abstract: | We compare physician incomes using tax data from the United States, Canada, Sweden, and the Netherlands. Physicians are concentrated in the top percentiles of the income distribution in all four countries, especially in the United States and certain specialties. Physician incomes are highest in the United States, and a decomposition shows that this mainly reflects differences in overall income distributions, rather than physicians’ locations in those distributions. This suggests that broader labor market differences, and thus physicians’ outside options, drive absolute incomes. Shifting US physicians’ incomes to match relative positions in other countries’ distributions would only marginally reduce healthcare spending. |
| JEL: | I13 I18 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34956 |
| By: | Gschwendt, Christian (University of Bern); Viarengo, Martina (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva); Zollner, Thea S. (University of Bern) |
| Abstract: | The economic impact of technological change will critically depend on how future workers invest in their human capital. Yet, little is known about how future workers themselves evaluate and choose their educational and occupational paths in light of emerging technologies. This paper examines how adolescents currently at the school-to-work transition stage value working with generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) in their future occupations, and how automation risk and opportunities for continuing education shape these preferences. We field a discrete-choice experiment among a nationally representative sample of over 7, 000 Swiss adolescents aged around 15. We find that adolescents generally exhibit an aversion to collaborating with GenAI at work, with females consistently more averse than males. However, preferences are nuanced: adolescents welcome greater GenAI collaboration, provided that GenAI usage levels remain moderate and that it is not accompanied by increases in job automation risk. Finally, our findings suggest that AI-related educational opportunities in occupations improve attitudes towards working with GenAI across genders. |
| Keywords: | occupational choice, gender gaps, GenAI, choice experiment, continuing education, automation risk |
| JEL: | I24 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18456 |
| By: | Burak Uras (Williams College); Jose Gabriel Carreno (Central Bank of Chile); Harry Huizinga (Tilburg University); Ata Can Bertay (Sabanci University) |
| Abstract: | "On average wages in the finance industry are higher compared to the rest of the economy. Two explanations suggested for this finance wage premium are (1) the positive correlation between risk-taking and wages, and (2) industry differences in ICT intensity. Using a comprehensive worker-firm panel dataset for the Netherlands, we estimate wage models with additive worker and firm fixed effects, and estimate the finance wage premium as the average of the firm fixed effects in an industry. We then relate the estimated cross-section of firm fixed effects to a range of firm charac- teristics, and find that ICT investment, the average level of educational attainment at a firm and the complementarity of the two are the main drivers of the finance wage premium, while firm risk only makes a small contribution." |
| Keywords: | finance wage premium, worker-firm panels, ICT, firm risk |
| JEL: | J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–02–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wil:wileco:2026_105 |
| By: | Cabrera-Hernandez, Francisco (Department of Economics, Centro de Investigacion y Docencia Economicas); Duval Hernández, Robert (Open University of Cyprus) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the labor market effects of Mexico’s 2019 minimum wage reform, which doubled wages in northern border municipalities. Using other northern municipalities with smaller wage adjustments as a comparison group, we examine changes in worker transitions across employment states. The reform lowered quit rates among formally employed workers but increased them for certain informal workers. Although the wage hike did not raise overall layoffs, it altered their composition: laid-off formal workers became more likely to transition into informal employment, while new formal hires increasingly came from previously employed informal workers. |
| Keywords: | minimum wage, employment transitions, Mexico |
| JEL: | J3 J38 J63 O10 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18443 |
| By: | Christian Gschwendt; Claudio Schilter |
| Abstract: | Generative AI (GenAI) adoption is spreading rapidly and reshaping work, yet its implications for firms' training decisions remain largely unexplored. This paper examines how automation in the post-GenAI era affects firms' entry-level training positions using a vignette experiment with recruiters at over 2, 800 Swiss firms, covering more than 100 distinct occupations. Firms plan to reduce training positions in response to automation prospects, with larger reductions the greater the expected automated task share and the earlier the expected implementation. Effects are markedly stronger in routine-intensive and AI-exposed occupations, as well as among large firms. Our experiment allows us to disentangle an "erosion of the training pipeline, " where firms reduce training even though demand for trained specialists remains, from an overall decline in occupational labor demand. We find that pipeline erosion accounts for less than one third of the average reduction in training, but substantially more when automation is particularly intensive - measured by a high share of tasks being automated - and in routine-intensive and AI-exposed occupations. Overall, the results suggest that GenAI adoption is likely to reallocate firms' human capital investment with potential downstream implications for early career formation, and to reinforce labor market de-routinization trends. |
| Keywords: | Automation, firm training, technological change, generative AI, artificial intelligence, entry-level employment |
| JEL: | J24 M53 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0252 |
| By: | Branimir Jovanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Viktor Stojkoski; Dragan Tevdovski; Marija Trpkova-Nestorovska |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of North Macedonia’s 2017 minimum wage reform – the largest in the country’s history – using matched employer-employee administrative data covering the entire range of firms and employees, and a difference-in-differences design based on firms’ pre-reform share of minimum wage workers. We examine changes in firm employment, wage levels, profitability, non-wage operating expenditures and productivity after the reform. Five results emerge. (i) We find no evidence of job losses, with employment increasing overall, and smaller increases for firms that were more sensitive to the minimum wage increase. (ii) Wages higher than the minimum increased on a widespread basis, with no difference between firms attributable to their relative exposure to the minimum wage increase. (iii) Profitability remained broadly unchanged, with no differences related to the minimum wage. (iv) Firms that were more sensitive to the minimum wage increase reduced non-wage operating costs to a greater extent. (v) Productivity rose, on average, with larger gains among more exposed firms. Overall, the evidence suggests that firms accommodated the higher minimum wage primarily through cuts in other operating expenses and productivity improvements, rather than through layoffs or profit compression, consistent with non-fully competitive wage-setting in a low labour-share economy. These results can serve as a useful benchmark for designing future minimum wage increases in economies with similar features. |
| Keywords: | minimum wages, firm-level performance, productivity, North Macedonia, labour share |
| JEL: | J38 D22 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:272 |
| By: | Lodefalk, Magnus (Örebro University School of Business); Löthman, Lydia (Örebro University School of Business); Koch, Michael (Aarhus University); Engberg, Erik (Örebro University School of Business) |
| Abstract: | We show that the age composition of employment within Swedish employers shifts after the arrival of generative AI, with no corresponding reduction in aggregate labour demand. Using 4.6 million job advertisements from Sweden’s largest recruitment platform, we find that the broad decline in postings since 2022 aligns with monetary tightening rather than AI, exploiting Sweden’s seven-month gap between the Riksbank’s first rate hike and the launch of ChatGPT as a timing test. We then use full-population employer– employee register data and an employer-level difference-in-differences design to estimate how AI exposure affects employment composition across six age groups. An event study documents an accelerating decline in employment of 22–25-year-olds in high-AI-exposure occupations, reaching 5.5 per cent by early 2025 relative to less exposed occupations within the same employers, while employment of workers over 50 rose by 1.3 per cent. The widening age gradient suggests that generative AI reshapes hiring composition rather than aggregate demand, with the adjustment burden falling disproportionately on entry-level workers. |
| Keywords: | Generative artificial intelligence; Job postings; Labour demand; Employment composition; Monetary policy |
| JEL: | J23 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–03–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2026_002 |
| By: | Santiago Garriga; Darío Tortarolo |
| Abstract: | We show that how countries disburse tax credits matters for economic incidence. We exploit a reform in Argentina that shifted the disbursement of child benefits from employers to the government in a staggered fashion. Using administrative data and an event-study approach, we find that employers receive 5 to 13 percent of the transfers through reduced wages when they mediate the payments. This wage effect is more pronounced for low-income workers, particularly new hires, and in smaller and less unionized firms. We argue that workers likely misperceived firm-disbursed transfers as part of their work compensation, leading to incidence-sharing effects. Our findings suggest that relying on firms as intermediaries in the tax-benefit system can have unexpected labor market consequences. |
| JEL: | H23 H31 H71 I38 J31 J32 J33 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:akh:wcefip:052 |
| By: | Cowgill, Bo (Columbia Business School); Hernandez-Lagos, Pablo (Sy Syms School of Business at Yeshiva University); Wright, Nataliya (Columbia Business School) |
| Abstract: | Screening human capital based on signals such as job applications or entrepreneurial pitches is crucial for organizations. Signals are often informative insofar as they require differential knowledge and effort to produce. Generative AI (GAI) complicates screening by lowering the cost of producing impressive signals. We model the informational effects of GAI, showing that applicants' access to GAI can increase---but also decrease---an evaluator's screening mistakes. This result depends on how GAI affects experts' signals compared to non-experts'. Using experiments in hiring and startup investing, we estimate that senders' access to GAI (ChatGPT) lowers screening accuracy by 4-9% for employers and startup investors. Consistent with our model, senders' access to GAI also improves screening accuracy in some settings---in our case, among senders from non-English-speaking countries. These results show that GAI can profoundly shape screening accuracy. |
| Keywords: | screening, Artificial Intelligence, entrepreneurship, human capital |
| JEL: | D82 M51 L26 D83 O33 M13 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18442 |
| By: | Khaliliaraghi, Negar (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Lundborg, Petter (Lund University); Vikström, johan (IFAU and Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | Gender gaps in earnings persist even among high-skilled workers, in part because men and women often perform different tasks within and across jobs. We study a rare setting in which high-skilled men and women perform the same tasks under comparable conditions, allowing us to assess gender differences in productivity and pay without confounding from task or client allocation. Using administrative data from the Swedish Public Employment Service between 2003 and 2014, we exploit a rotation scheme that quasirandomly assigns job seekers to employment caseworkers. We find that productivity differences are small: job seekers assigned to female and male caseworkers exit unemployment at similar rates, and hourly wages—conditional on productivity—are nearly identical across genders, leaving little scope for wage differences driven by discrimination or bargaining in this setting. Despite this, female caseworkers earn about 8 percent less per year, entirely due to differences in contracted and actual hours worked. We also find suggestive evidence that male caseworkers are more likely to be promoted than equally productive female colleagues. Taken together, the results show that when tasks are standardized and performance is measured objectively, gender differences in productivity and hourly pay are minimal, while gaps in annual earnings and career progression persist. |
| Keywords: | Gender Gaps; Productivity; Wages; Task Allocation |
| JEL: | D84 I12 J12 J21 |
| Date: | 2026–03–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2026_007 |
| By: | Costanza Bosone; Leonardo Gambacorta; Paolo Giudici; Enisse Kharroubi; Ulf Lewrick |
| Abstract: | We study how robot adoption and investment in information and communication technologies (ICT) jointly shape sectoral employment across 20 European Union (EU) countries over the period 1995-2020. Using a cross-sectional regression design that interacts changes in robot adoption with ICT investment, we find that increases in robot adoption are associated with higher employment in sectors that either entered the period without robots or invested little in ICT. By contrast, robot adoption is associated with lower employment in sectors that initially had some robots and high ICT investment. These findings highlight the importance of both initial conditions and complementary technology investment in shaping labour-market outcomes, suggesting that the employment effects of technology are highly context-dependent. |
| Keywords: | ICT capital, employment, labour market, technology adoption, European Union |
| JEL: | E23 O33 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1334 |
| By: | Jason Scott; John B. Shoven; Sita Slavov; John G. Watson |
| Abstract: | Target date funds – which initially invest a large share of retirement savings in stocks and shift gradually towards bonds over the life cycle – are designed to provide a “one stop shop” for retirement investing. The rationale for this pattern is that human capital, which is highest at the start of a worker’s career, is “bond-like.” Thus, utility is maximized when financial wealth is initially invested primarily in stocks, with the investment mix shifting towards bonds as the present value of future labor income declines. We revisit this logic in a dynamic model in which shocks to labor income are correlated with the stock market, and in which Social Security replaces a higher share of income for lower-income individuals. In line with empirical evidence, lower-income individuals in the model experience a higher degree of correlation between labor earnings growth and stock returns. We find that utility-maximizing retirement portfolios can vary greatly across individuals, deviating substantially from the pattern of a target date fund for lower-income individuals. |
| JEL: | G51 H55 J26 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34966 |
| By: | Lorenzo Cappellari (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Antonio di Paolo; Thompson Ogajah Tawiah |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the relationship between language background and labour market outcomes in the bilingual labour market of the Spanish region of Catalonia. The empirical analysis draws on repeated cross-sectional data that allow us to construct a quantitative measure of linguistic distance based on respondents’ native language, computed with respect to Catalan, the local language of Catalonia. As labour market outcomes, we consider employment probability and occupational quality, proxied by an indicator for holding a high-skilled job and by an ordinal measure of occupational skill level. The results indicate that, conditional on place of origin and a set of predetermined individual characteristics and controlling for origin-specific trends in years since migration, linguistic distance is not associated with employment. However, it is negatively related to both the likelihood of holding a high-skilled job and occupational skill levels. We analyse the role of language skills as a mechanism, showing that oral and written proficiency in Catalan are key drivers of the negative relationship between linguistic distance and occupational quality. Moreover, this relationship does not appear to be confounded by proficiency in Spanish, and the overall results are robust to a battery of robustness checks. Finally, the analysis of heterogeneous effects reveals an employment penalty associated with linguistic distance among females, and shows that its association with occupational quality is entirely driven by highly educated workers. |
| Keywords: | linguistic distance, employment, occupation, multilingualism. |
| JEL: | J15 J24 J61 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie1:def151 |
| By: | Susan Athey; Lisa K. Simon; Oskar Nordström Skans; Johan Vikström; Yaroslav Yakymovych |
| Abstract: | Using rich Swedish administrative data, we apply causal machine learning methods to study how earnings losses after job displacement vary with observable characteristics that may be relevant for targeting policy interventions for workers. Heterogeneity in effects is as large within as across worker groups defined by age and schooling, and as large within as across establishments. A substantial portion of cross-establishment heterogeneity can be explained by industry and local labor market characteristics, suggesting a role for place- and industry-based targeting. The largest losses are concentrated among already vulnerable workers, indicating that well-designed targeting policies can improve both efficiency and equity. |
| JEL: | C45 J21 J31 J65 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34946 |
| By: | Clemens, Michael (George Mason University) |
| Abstract: | The US government in 2025 imposed a $100, 000 tax on each high-skill foreign worker entering with an H-1B work visa. The only public economic justification calculates the tax to offset an estimated wage penalty for H-1B workers relative to US natives. But this estimate suffers from substantial bias. Reexamining the same data shows that H-1B workers receive a modest wage premium relative to comparable natives, roughly 6% on average—inconsistent with any wage penalty—when using equivalent wage concepts and comparing workers of the same age, gender, education, and tenure, in the same occupation and local labor market. I trace most of the discrepancy to four methodological choices that inflate the prior estimate: 1) undisclosed imputation of missing data, 2) pooling of non-contemporaneous years, 3) a definition of local labor markets contradicting standard economic practice and US law, and 4) failure to consider H-1B workers' low job tenure. The remaining discrepancy arises from comparing incompatible wage concepts for H-1B versus native workers. Beyond measurement, the theory of public economics implies that a revenue-maximizing immigration tax reduces welfare relative to alternatives, even with zero weight on immigrant welfare. |
| Keywords: | immigration, tax, h-1b, skill, stem, worker, labor, welfare, immigrant, nonimmigrant, visa, wages, gap |
| JEL: | J08 J38 J68 H21 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18435 |
| By: | Bartelsman, Eric (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Dobbelaere, Sabien (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Zona Mattioli, Alessandro (Universiteit van Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a micro-founded framework linking price-cost and wage markups to intangible assets. Intangible assets, once created, are a source of firm rents. Owing to limits to enforceable ownership and the non-rival nature of knowledge, these rents can be both retained by the origin firm and transferred to a competitor through poaching of workers. Search and matching frictions affect labor mobility and result in bargaining over rents between the firm and the worker. This environment generates hold-up in intangible asset creation and motivates rent sharing. Under non-compete agreements, poached workers face start delays that weaken outside options. Using microdata from the Netherlands, we document higher price-cost and wage markups in more intangible-intensive firms and lower wages for workers with non-compete agreements, consistent with the model. |
| Keywords: | price-cost markups, wage markups, rent sharing, intangibles, non-compete agreements |
| JEL: | J41 L10 O30 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18440 |
| By: | Checchi, Daniele (University of Milan); Figari, Francesco (Università degli Studi del Piemonte Orientale); Fiorio, Carlo (Università degli Studi di Milano and Irvapp-FBK.) |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of salary caps for top public managers in Italy, focusing on the 2011 and 2014 reforms implemented during the post-crisis fiscal consolidation period. The first cap, set at e290, 000 and later reduced to e240, 000, imposed a 100% marginal tax rate above the threshold. Using linked employer–employee administrative data and an event-study difference-in-differences design, we estimate the causal impact on earnings and participation. The 2011 reform significantly compressed salaries at the top of the public-sector distribution and generated sizable fiscal savings. Intensive-margin responses are modest: the top-bracket elasticity of taxable net earnings is about 0.214, and the resulting efficiency loss for stayers is small, reflecting second-order Harberger-triangle distortions. In contrast, extensive responses are large: the reform significantly increased early retirement and switching to the private sector, with participation elasticities far exceeding the intensive elasticity. Welfare analysis shows that overall efficiency costs are driven primarily by these extensive margins. |
| Keywords: | salary cap, public administration, Italy |
| JEL: | H21 J38 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18450 |
| By: | Wei Cai; Andrea Prat; Jiehang Yu |
| Abstract: | Incomplete contract theory, supported by anecdotal evidence, suggests that when a firm is acquired, workers may be adversely affected in non-contractible aspects of their work experience. This paper empirically investigates this prediction by combining M\&A events from the Refinitiv database and web-scraped Glassdoor review data. We find that: (a) Controlling for pre-trends, mergers lead to lower satisfaction, especially on non-contractible dimensions of the employee experience (about 6% of a standard deviation); (b) The effect is stronger in the target firm than in the acquiring firm; (c) Text analysis of employee comments indicates that the decline in satisfaction is primarily associated with perceived breaches of implicit contracts. Our findings indicate that mergers may reduce workers' job utility through non-monetary channels. |
| JEL: | D23 G34 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34920 |
| By: | Talatu Jalloh (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); David Wolf (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Keijiro Otsuka (Kobe University) |
| Abstract: | Entrepreneurs play critical roles in driving economic growth, and recent evidence suggests that entrepreneurial skills can be developed through job training. Yet little is known about the conditions under which such training shapes entrepreneurial mindsets. This study examines how management and work environment factors influence entrepreneurial aspiration. We draw on a novel survey dataset collected from participants in the African Business Education Initiative—a program that aims to develop Africa’s industrial human resources. Our findings consistently demonstrate that task clarity, role-match, and mentorship positively influence entrepreneurial aspiration, whereas facing adaptability challenges has no meaningful effect. Jointly, task clarity and role-match exerted greater influence on entrepreneurial aspiration than either factor alone, highlighting their complementarity relationship. Furthermore, mentorship appeared to play a compensatory role by offsetting any potential negative effect of adaptability challenges on entrepreneurial aspiration. Further analysis showed that management factors played a larger role in promoting entrepreneurial aspirations than work environment factors. These findings suggest that a well-structured internship program that emphasizes clear responsibilities, role alignment, and strong mentorship can cultivate future entrepreneurial leaders who can foster entrepreneurship and drive innovation in Africa. |
| Keywords: | management factors, work environment factors, entrepreneurial aspiration |
| JEL: | L26 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koe:wpaper:2603 |
| By: | Ajay K. Agrawal; John McHale; Alexander Oettl |
| Abstract: | We explore the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the knowledge production function. We characterize AI as a tool, not for full automation but rather for augmentation through enhanced search over combinatorial spaces. This leads to increased scientific productivity. We decompose knowledge production into a multi-stage process to shed light on the "jagged frontier" of AI in science, revealing differential returns to different tools across domains (e.g., data-rich biology vs. anomaly-sparse physics) and workflow stages (e.g., strong design aids like AlphaFold vs. subtler question generation tools). We treat human judgment as indispensable for tasks involving abductive inference, contextual nuance, and trade-offs, particularly in data-sparse environments. Drawing on a task-based model that distinguishes "ordinary" from AI-expert scientists, we describe how exogenous improvements in AI yield nonlinear productivity gains amplified by the share of scientists that are AI-experts to underscore the role of AI complements like skills training and organizational design. |
| JEL: | I23 O14 O31 O33 O41 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34953 |
| By: | Bartzokas, Anthony; Kostis, Pantelis C. |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly characterized as a General Purpose Technology (GPT) capable of reconfiguring work, accelerating digitalization, and raising aggregate productivity. Yet the pace and inclusiveness of AI adoption depend less on technical potential than on complementary sectoral capacity, institutional quality, and human capital. This paper examines Greece as a peripheral EU economy marked by high projected AI gains but significant structural constraints, generating risks of delayed adoption and uneven distributional outcomes. The paper develops a structural conversion framework linking three dimensions: capacity for AI-driven sectoral upgrading; institutional and functional readiness beyond digital infrastructure; and the regeneration and retention of skilled labour. Drawing on micro-level data from the JustReDI survey, the paper constructs composite indices of institutional trust, digital confidence, and digital public service usability, documenting substantial heterogeneity across educational subgroups and regions. The findings reveal a pronounced structural mismatch: service usability rises sharply with educational attainment, yet institutional trust varies only modestly, and digital confidence is performance-driven rather than legitimacy-based. A further tension emerges in Attica, where high institutional trust and technological centrality coexist with comparatively poor user-centric service quality. These results point to a fragmented digital transition marked by persistent social and regional asymmetries, suggesting that inclusive growth through AI adoption in structurally constrained economies requires a policy reorientation - from deployment toward the institutional and functional conversion of technological resources into broad-based development outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence, Greek Economy, Digitalization, Human Capital, Brain Drain, Sectoral Transformation |
| JEL: | O33 O38 O43 J24 R11 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iedlwp:338120 |
| By: | Ufuk Akcigit; Craig A. Chikis; Emin Dinlersoz; Nathan Goldschlag |
| Abstract: | We construct a novel dataset linking academic publication records to U.S. Census employer–employee data to track 42, 000 AI researchers over two decades. We document systematic changes in the allocation of AI talent. Industry increasingly attracts younger and foreign-born researchers, while gender representation improves more in academia. The top 1% of publishing industry scientists now earn $1.5 million more annually than comparable academics, a fivefold increase since 2001. Rising wage premia coincide with greater sorting into large incumbent firms. Researchers who move to industry publish less but patent more, consistent with a shift from open science toward proprietary innovation. |
| JEL: | I23 J45 L33 O31 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34964 |
| By: | Tarek Alexander Hassan; Aakash Kalyani; Pascual Restrepo |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that the pace of technology creation is a key driver of the skill premium. It develops a model in which skilled workers have a comparative advantage in learning new technologies. As technologies age, they become standardized and accessible to other workers. The skill premium is determined by the interplay between the pace of technology creation and standardization. A rapid pace of technology creation leads to a sustained increase in the skill premium. We calibrate the model using novel text-based data on new technologies and their changing demand for skills as they age. These data show that new technologies are initially skill intensive but become less so as they age. The data also point to an increased pace of new technology creation starting in the 1970s and tapering off in the 2000s. In response to this rapid pace of technology creation, the model generates a 32 percent increase in the college premium, which begins to reverse in the 2010s. Our framework also explains why the college premium is higher in dense cities, why its increase was mainly urban, and why it rose first for young workers and later for older workers. |
| JEL: | E0 J2 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34939 |
| By: | Paul Bingley; Lorenzo Cappellari (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Konstantinos Tatsiramos |
| Abstract: | We develop a model that links education–outcome gradients to intergenerational transmission, distinguishing joint from parent-specific channels under assortative mating. Using Danish administrative data on family quartets, we estimate the own education–outcome gradient and, in addition, intergenerational gradients in long-run earnings, disposable income, assets, and wealth. Gradients differ sharply across domains: for earnings and income, joint transmission matters alongside individual-specific heterogeneity; for assets and especially wealth, gradients are dominated by parent-specific channels. Exploiting Danish schooling reforms, we show that the composition of financial gradients varies with access to schooling. |
| Keywords: | Assortative mating, Education gradients, Intergenerational mobility. |
| JEL: | J62 D31 J12 I24 E21 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie1:def152 |
| By: | Yueh-ya Hsu; Reshmaan N. Hussam; Erin M. Kelley; Gregory Lane |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates household preferences over who should work and whether these preferences are malleable. We document that men and women prefer that husbands work over wives. To understand why, we randomly assign a six-week job to either the husband or wife and document asymmetry: women’s work improves their own wellbeing but not their husbands’, while men’s work improves both partners’ wellbeing. One year later, we surprise households with a work opportunity. Both women and men in households where women were previously employed are more likely to prefer the woman take the job and express fewer concerns about women’s employment in general. |
| JEL: | D91 I31 J22 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34969 |
| By: | Kurmann, André; Lalé, Etienne; Martin, Julien |
| Abstract: | We provide the first systematic evidence on the labor market consequences of the 25% decline in Canadian visits to the United States in 2025. We combine smartphone foot-traffic data measuring Canadian visitor presence at the ZIP code × industry level with real-time establishment-level employment records. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that establishments in highly exposed markets experienced employment declines of about 6%, implying a loss of 13, 900 to 42, 100 jobs. These effects are spatially concentrated and should be interpreted as lower bounds, as our analysis focuses on small and medium establishments and abstracts from spillover effects. |
| Keywords: | Tourism, Smartphone Data, Employment, Business Dynamics |
| JEL: | F14 J21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:clefwp:338098 |
| By: | Seoyoung Kwon; Jongkwan Lee; Joan Monràs |
| Abstract: | High-skilled migration programs exist around the world in the hope that immigrants complement native workers, allow firms to grow, and boost innovation. We study the effect of one such program by exploiting the 2016 extension of the Optional Practical Training (OPT) program, which significantly prolonged the work authorization period for international STEM graduates. Using a synthetic difference-in-differences approach, we find that the policy successfully increased the local supply of high-skilled immigrants in exposed Commuting Zones. This local inflow stimulated firm creation and the demand for native high-skilled workers. The program might have also boosted innovation in certain sectors and startup investment, especially in Commuting Zones hosting top-ranked universities, where, overall, the effects tend to be larger. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, labor demand, firm dynamics, high-skilled migration |
| JEL: | F22 J31 J61 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1940 |
| By: | Xi Yang |
| Abstract: | This study examines the causal effect of housing wealth on labor supply using restricted geographic data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). The analysis employs a novel household-level instrument that measures the duration of homeowners’ exposure to housing market booms driven by credit expansion in housing supply-constrained areas, leveraging cross-household variation in both the timing and location (counties) of home purchases. Housing wealth negatively affects women’s labor supply, a 1% increase lowers participation by 0.098 pp, but shows no significant effect for men. This negative wealth effectamong female workers is driven primarily by childcare responsibilities and human capital investment, as it is strongest among mothers of young children and those who report child-related reasons for not working. Other potential mechanisms, such as income effects, precautionary saving, or liquidity constraints, do not seem to fully explain the negative association. |
| Keywords: | Housing Wealth, Credit Expansion, Female Labor Supply, Childcare and Human Capital Investment |
| JEL: | J22 G21 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-15 |
| By: | Toikka, Max; Saxell, Tanja; Siikanen, Markku |
| Abstract: | We examine the effects of private sector expansion on local labor markets for social and health care workers using comprehensive administrative data and a difference-in-differences design based on the staggered entry of private providers. Entry increases private sector employment, crowding out public employment with little change in total employment. Public sector wages remain largely unchanged, while private sector wages rise modestly. Public providers mitigate staffing shortages by purchasing more services from private providers without raising workloads for remaining workers. The decline in the public wage bill largely offsets higher private service spending, leaving total public expenditure on social and health services almost unchanged. |
| Keywords: | local labor markets, entry, mixed markets, social and health care, outsourcing, wage rigidity, labor scarcity, H44, L33, I11, J21, J44, C23, fi=Kunnat ja hyvinvointialueet|sv=Kommuner och välfärdsområden|en=Municipalities and wellbeing services counties|, fi=Terveyspalvelut|sv=Hälsovårdstjänster|en=Healthcare services|, fi=Työmarkkinat|sv=Arbetsmarknad|en=Labour markets|, |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fer:wpaper:184 |
| By: | Christos A. Makridis; Byron Johnson |
| Abstract: | We study whether religiosity is associated with greater economic resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using county-level data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and the Bureau of Economic Analysis from 2016 to 2024, together with the Religion Census in 2010 and 2020, we examine whether counties with larger pre-pandemic increases in Christian adherence experienced different post-pandemic trajectories in employment, wages, establishments, and real output. We find that counties with greater growth in religiosity between 2010 and 2020 exhibited significantly stronger resilience in employment, establishment counts, and real output during and after the pandemic, with weaker and less consistent effects for real wages. We complement these findings with cross-country evidence from the Gallup World Poll covering more than 140 countries, showing that countries with stronger pre-pandemic growth in religiosity also had more favorable post-pandemic trajectories in thriving, perceived social support, stress, and worry. The findings are consistent with the view that religiosity may operate as a distinct form of resilience capital during major shocks. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, christianity, Gallup world poll, labor market, religiosity, social capital |
| JEL: | Z12 R11 J21 I31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12537 |
| By: | Joshua D. Gottlieb; Sean Nicholson |
| Abstract: | We describe competition in the physician market, focusing on how entry barriers and substitution possibilities have changed in recent decades. Regulatory caps on medical school seats and residency slots—especially for high-paying specialties—continue to ration entry, generate high returns for those who gain these slots, and direct the most academically accomplished trainees toward lucrative fields. But trained physicians increasingly compete with nurse practitioners, physician assistants, and other mid-level practitioners in the market for patients. Training of these substitutes has expanded far more rapidly than physician supply. We present key facts about the physician pipeline, a conceptual framework linking specialty earnings to entry barriers, and describe the rise of mid-level providers. These facts mean that effective competition policy in physician markets must look beyond conventional concentration measures and focus on the institutions and laws that govern who can provide medical care. |
| JEL: | I11 J44 L13 L50 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34955 |