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on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages |
| By: | Böhm, Michael Johannes (TU Dortmund); Etheridge, Ben (University of Essex); Irastorza-Fadrique, Aitor (Institute for Fiscal Studies, London) |
| Abstract: | As technological advances accelerate and labour demands shift, the ability of workers to reallocate across occupations will be crucial for shaping labour market dynamics, inequality, and effective policy design. In this paper, we develop a tractable equilibrium model of the labour market that incorporates heterogeneous labour supply elasticities to different occupations and across different occupation pairs. Using worker flows from German administrative data, we estimate these elasticities and validate them through external measures such as occupational licensing and task distance. Our model quantifies the heterogeneous impacts of recent labour demand shifts on occupational wages and employment, highlighting the role of cross-occupation effects in shaping market responses to shocks. Finally, we leverage this framework to project employment flows and wage adjustments under future occupational demand shifts that are implied by the latest automation technologies. |
| Keywords: | labour demand shocks, occupational substitutability, future projections, heterogeneous labour supply elasticities, automation technologies, german panel data, job flows, occupational employment and wages, automation technologies, future projections |
| JEL: | J21 J23 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17851 |
| By: | Chen, Yuyu (Peking University); Hensel, Lukas (Peking University); Yao, Xinjue (University of Hong Kong) |
| Abstract: | How does manager quality affect subordinates' career progression? We examine the causal effect of manager quality on workers' career outcomes in the context of managerial teams at a large construction firm. We exploit quasi-random variation in worker-manager matching through frequent project reassignments to identify the causal effect of high-quality managers on promotions. Working under a high-quality manager increases workers' subsequent promotion rates by 13 percentage points. We provide evidence in support of managerial human capital transmission as the primary mechanism: effects are concentrated among workers and positions that require most managerial skills and exposed workers earn significantly higher performance-based bonuses. |
| Keywords: | skill transmission, promotions, manager quality |
| JEL: | M51 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17848 |
| By: | Stans, Renske (Netherlands Court of Audit); Ehrmantraut, Laura (Federal Statistical Office); Siemers, Malin (University of Bonn); Pinger, Pia (University of Cologne) |
| Abstract: | Do employers seek to attract individuals with more education because it enhances human capital or because it signals higher levels of pre-existing traits? We experimentally vary master's degree completion rates on applicant résumés and examine how this influences candidates' desirability and employer perceptions of their productive characteristics. Our findings show that while a completed master's degree increases desirability, an incomplete master's degree is perceived by human resource managers as less favorable than a bachelor's degree. This suggests that employers prefer candidates with higher education mainly because they view the degree as a signal of pre-existing productive traits. Consistent with this, employers perceive both cognitive and non-cognitive traits as stronger in master graduates but non-cognitive traits as weaker in master dropouts compared to bachelor's degree holders. Overall, perceived cognitive and non-cognitive traits play a larger role in determining a candidate's attractiveness than expertise. This paper thus provides causal evidence on the origins of the education premium. |
| Keywords: | returns to education, beliefs, labor demand, labor productivity, signaling, wages |
| JEL: | I26 J23 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17732 |
| By: | Egana-delSol, Pablo (Universidad Adolfo Ibañez); Bravo-Ortega, Claudio (Universidad Adolfo Ibañez) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the implications of artificial intelligence (AI) on employment, wages, and inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The paper identifies tasks and occupations most exposed to AI using comprehensive individual-level data alongside AI exposure indices. Unlike traditional automation, AI exposure correlates positively with higher education levels, ICT, and STEM skills. Notably, younger workers and women with high-level ICT and managerial skills face increased AI exposure, underscoring unique opportunities. A comparison of LAC with the OECD countries reveals greater impacts of AI in the former, with physical and customer-facing tasks showing divergent correlations to AI exposure. The findings indicate that while AI contributes to employment growth at the top and bottom of wage quintiles, its wage impact strongly depends on the movement of workers from the middle class to below the wage mean of the high-level quintile of wages, hence decreasing the average income of the top quintile. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, automation, labor market, developing economies, AI exposure, inequality, non cognitive skills, cognitive skills |
| JEL: | J23 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17746 |
| By: | Andrew C. Johnston; Jonah E. Rockoff; James R. Harrington |
| Abstract: | We examine the effect of a representative pension reform on the retention and productivity of workers. The reform cut pension annuities and early retirement benefits for public school teachers, projected to save eight percent of pension revenues. We leverage administrative records and a discontinuity in the reform to estimate its effect. Contrary to expectations, the cut increased retention by discouraging early retirement. Using idiosyncratic within-school variation in exposure, we find the reform somewhat increased student achievement by 0.01–0.03 standard deviations, partly through reduced turnover. The reform thus maintained or improved both teacher retention and productivity. |
| JEL: | H75 J26 M52 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33673 |
| By: | Alexandre Mas |
| Abstract: | This chapter reviews the analysis of non-wage amenities in the workplace. The competitive model is the point of departure, but the emphasis is on models of imperfect competition that have greater empirical relevance. In addition to the traditional hedonic model for estimating preferences over job characteristics, I review revealed-preference methods that are better suited when there are deviations from perfect competition. |
| JEL: | J0 J3 J30 J31 J32 J33 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33643 |
| By: | Gobillon, Laurent (Paris School of Economics); Magnac, Thierry (University of Toulouse I); Roux, Sébastien (CREST-INSEE) |
| Abstract: | We derive wage equations with individual specific coefficients from a structural model of human capital investment over the life cycle. This model allows for interruptions in labour market participation and deals with missing data and attrition problems. We propose a new framework that deals with missingness at random and is based on factor decompositions that allow for flexible control of selection. Our approach leads to an interactive effect wage specification, which we estimate using long administrative panel data on male wages in the private sector in France. A structural function approach shows that interruptions negatively affect average wages. Interestingly, they also negatively affect the inter-decile range of wages after twenty years. This is only partly due to the fact that interruptions are endogenous. |
| Keywords: | human capital investment, wage inequalities, factor models, missing data |
| JEL: | C38 D91 I24 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17838 |
| By: | Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos; Summerfield, Fraser; Visschers, Lodewijk Pieter |
| Abstract: | We investigate cyclical changes in workers’ task portfolios, highlighting their direction, magnitude, and distribution. Task changes are not only very common but provide information about the skills required across jobs. During recessions, a larger share of employer switches do not involve task changes. When changes occur, they tend to be more substantial. The cyclicality of task changes among employer-to-employer movers contrasts sharply with that of hires from unemployment. We link our findings to the “sullying” and “cleansing” effects of recessions, uncovering a novel cleansing effect associated with employer-to-employer transitions and a sullying effect tied to employer changes through unemployment. |
| Keywords: | Career change; Occupational mobility; Tasks; Business cycles |
| JEL: | E32 J24 J62 E24 |
| Date: | 2025–04–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:46534 |
| By: | Afridi, Farzana (Indian Statistical Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the structure and quality of self-employment in India over a decade. India, historically, has had a much larger share of workers who are self-employed and a smaller proportion of wage and salaried workers. This structure of labour force participation has not shifted much in decades. In recent years, the proportion of self-employed has risen relative to the pre-pandemic era, and much more so for women. At the same time, significant underemployment accompanies low earnings of the self-employed. The paper highlights three key constraints for improving the quality of or transitioning out of self-employment – vocational skilling, access to formal credit and legal support for entrepreneurship. It concludes by discussing the implications of technological change and digitization for self-employment and the need for reforming the legal framework of self-employment in India. |
| Keywords: | quality of work, gender, trends, self-employment, India |
| JEL: | J2 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17842 |
| By: | Brayan S. Diaz; Andrea Neyra Nazarrett; Julian Ramirez; Raffaella Sadun; Jorge A. Tamayo |
| Abstract: | Training investments are essential for improving worker and firm productivity, yet their implementation is often hindered by low participation rates and insufficient worker engagement. This study uses data from three firms—a car manufacturer, a quick-service restaurant chain, and a retail company—to show that variation in training participation among employees is closely tied to differences in middle managers’ behavior and practices. Middle managers who actively engage with their employees and emphasize their well-being and development are associated with significantly higher participation in training programs. These managerial differences significantly influence employee performance and absenteeism, especially during periods of organizational change. Together, these findings underscore the importance of middle managers in bridging the gap between centrally designed HR policies and their effective on-the-ground execution. |
| JEL: | J24 L23 M12 M53 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33670 |
| By: | Andrés Erosa; Luisa Fuster; Gueorgui Kambourov; Richard Rogerson |
| Abstract: | We study the forces driving polarization and higher wage inequality since 1980 using a structural model of occupation choice in the tradition of Roy (1951). In our model, changes in relative occupational skill prices proxy for changes in relative demand for occupational labor services. Our analysis yields three main findings. First, although changes in skill prices have quantitatively important effects on employment shares and mean wages, they play essentially no role in accounting for the sharp rise in wage inequality. Second, changes in relative wages are driven by changes in higher order moments and do not reflect changes in relative demand. Third, changes in the variance of idiosyncratic within occupation productivity are the dominant factor behind the sharp rise in inequality. |
| JEL: | J23 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33687 |
| By: | Miranda, Alfonso (CIDE, Mexico City) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of speaking Spanish as an additional language (SAL)—as opposed to speaking it as a native—on education, labor, and wellbeing outcomes among Mexico's indigenous ethno-linguistic minorities. Controls are appropriately comparable indigenous individuals who speak only Spanish. To address treatment endogeneity, we use 2SLS, maximum likelihood, and control function estimators, using parental indigenous language status as instruments. Unlike prior studies, we account for key confounders: parents' education, occupation, and imputed family income. SAL reduces education by one year—equivalent to a−0.2 standard deviations reduction on schooling. It also imposes a−23% penalty on permanent income (wealth). No significant effects are found on employment, life satisfaction, or health. |
| Keywords: | Spanish as additional language, indigenous ethno-linguistic minorities, economic outcomes, Mexico |
| JEL: | J71 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17741 |
| By: | Artz, Benjamin (University of Wisconsin, Oshkosh); Heywood, John S. (University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee) |
| Abstract: | We use US longitudinal survey data to examine the role of performance pay (other than profit sharing) in worker quit decisions. We argue that performance pay should increasingly be viewed as an indicator of an internal labor market rather than of a simple contemporaneous incentive. Suggestive of this claim, we find that in ever more complete specifications that account for worker and employer characteristics, aggregate earnings and worker job satisfaction, performance pay is associated with a reduced probability of worker quits. This remains when including worker fixed effects that control for unmeasured invariant heterogeneity. We investigate how it varies with the type of performance pay and its intensity. We confirm heterogeneity in this influence by workplace size. |
| Keywords: | performance pay, internal labor markets, voluntary quits |
| JEL: | J33 J41 J63 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17791 |
| By: | van der List, Catherine (University of Essex) |
| Abstract: | To study the distribution of economic activity across space and place-based policies, I develop a model of the location choice of new establishments incorporating monopsonistic labor markets, taxes, and spillovers. Estimates using German administrative data indicate that establishments prefer lower taxes and lower worker outside options which enable establishments to pay lower wages. The degree to which various types of productivity spillovers matter in the location decision varies between industries. I also quantify the effects of a counterfactual place-based policy and find that the response of a commuting zone to the place-based policy depends on the degree of labor market power in that commuting zone. More monopsonistic labor markets receive more benefit from the place-based policy. |
| JEL: | J42 J23 H71 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17742 |
| By: | McGuinness, Seamus (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin); Redmond, Paul (ESRI, Dublin); Pouliakas, Konstantinos (European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (Cedefop)); Kelly, Lorcan (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin); Brosnan, Luke (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin) |
| Abstract: | Using the second wave of the European Skills and Jobs survey, this paper measures the relationship between technological change that automates or augments workers’ job tasks and their participation in work-related training. We find that 58 per cent of European employees experienced no change in the need to learn new technologies in their jobs during the 2020-21 period. Of those exposed to new digital technology, 14 per cent did not experience any change in job tasks, 10 per cent reported that new tasks had been created while 5 per cent only saw some of their tasks being displaced by new technology. The remaining 13 per cent simultaneously experienced both task displacement and task creation. Our analysis shows that employees in jobs impacted by new digital technologies are more likely to have to react to unpredictable situations, thus demonstrating a positive link between technologically driven task disruption and job complexity. We show a strong linear relationship between technologically driven job task disruption and the need for job-related training, with training requirements increasing the greater the impact of new technologies on task content. |
| Keywords: | upskilling, technological change, digitalisation, tasks, automation, training, complexity |
| JEL: | J24 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17753 |
| By: | Högn, Celina (affiliation not available); Mayer, Lea (affiliation not available); Rincke, Johannes (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg); Winkler, Erwin (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines preferences for gender diversity among co-workers. Using stated-choice experiments with 5, 400 PhD students and university students in Germany, we uncover a substantial willingness to pay (WTP) for gender diversity of up to 5% of earnings on average. Importantly, we find that women have a much higher WTP for gender diversity than men. While the WTP differs by career ambition, competitiveness, and family preferences, we find that gender differences in traits and preferences cannot explain gender differences in the WTP for diversity. Our findings provide an explanation for differential sorting of men and women into high-profile jobs based on the share of female co-workers. |
| Keywords: | gender differences, preferences, willingness to pay, stated choice experiment, gender diversity |
| JEL: | J16 J24 J31 J33 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17750 |
| By: | Diego A. Briones; Sarah Turner |
| Abstract: | Beginning in March 2020 and ultimately continuing to September 2023, most student loan borrowers had their required payments on federal student loans paused. For student loan borrowers with limited access to credit, the payment pause provided additional cash-on-hand that may have allowed them to reduce their work hours. Using survey data capturing individual finances, monthly work characteristics and educational attainment, we find that suspended student debt payments reduced average weekly hours worked by 1.34 (-4%) over a 10-month period with declines concentrated among workers who had not completed a college degree. For borrowers who had completed a college degree or graduate degree, there is no evidence that the payment pause changed employment or hours worked. These findings are consistent with consumer finance data showing that borrower households without a college degree are approximately twice as likely to report liquidity constraints relative to more educated households with federal student debt. |
| JEL: | I22 I23 J22 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33553 |
| By: | Fang, Tony (Memorial University of Newfoundland); Ge, Lilac (Chinese University of Hong Kong); Hartley, John (Memorial University of Newfoundland); Ming, Hui (Sichuan University) |
| Abstract: | Using OLS, probit, and semi-nonparametric regression analysis on survey data, this article examines the factors associated with the successful economic integration of Chinese returnees, as indicated by their career and income satisfaction. Those motivated to return by talent policy are substantially more likely to be economically satisfied and satisfied with their career. The desire to find a marriage partner also positively correlates with satisfaction, while researchers are less likely to be satisfied than those in other professions. Moreover, concerns about spousal employment, trade relations and the rule of law correlate with a lower willingness to return among overseas Chinese. |
| Keywords: | attraction, retention, overseas Chinese, talent management, talent policy, career satisfaction, income satisfaction |
| JEL: | J15 J18 J24 J28 J33 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17757 |
| By: | Fabian Kosse; Tim Leffler; Arna Woemmel |
| Abstract: | We investigate social disparities in digital skills, focusing on both actual proficiency levels and confidence in these skills. Drawing on a representative sample from Germany, we first demonstrate that both dimensions strongly predict labor market success. We then use this sample to identify gender and socioeconomic disparities in levels and confidence. Finally, using a long-run RCT panel framework with young adults, we confirm these disparities and provide causal evidence on the effects of enhancing the social environment in childhood. Assigning elementary school-aged children to a mentoring program persistently reduces socioeconomic gaps in confidence related to digital skills, but it does not affect the level of digital skills. |
| Keywords: | Digital Skills; Technological Transformation; Inequality; Early Childhood Mentoring |
| JEL: | C93 D63 I24 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1222 |
| By: | Cellini, Stefano (University of Surrey); Mello, Marco (University of Aberdeen); Moscelli, Giuseppe (University of Surrey) |
| Abstract: | We build a unique dataset by linking high-quality administrative data sources and model the mobility choices of tenured English National Health Service (NHS) hospital doctors across hospital organizations according to a random utility choice framework based on hospital quality, pay-for-performance incentives, local residential amenities and travel-to-work commuting distances. We account for the endogeneity of hospital quality through a control function approach. Doctors are willing to move 5.3 extra kilometers in order join a new hospital organization with a one-standard-deviation lower mortality rate, whereas they are willing to trade a standard deviation of the average monetary bonus received for their clinical excellence with the cost of moving 5 extra kilometers from their home. Primary school quality and low crime residential areas are only marginally salient in the choice of new employer. Counterfactual simulation estimates reveal that simultaneous improvements in hospital mortality and performance-related pay awards by one fourth of a standard deviation can lead to decreases in regional hospital doctor vacancy rates by 2% to 11%. |
| Keywords: | organization quality, hospital, physicians, mobility, skilled workers, incentive pay, vacancies |
| JEL: | C25 I11 J24 J45 J62 J63 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17798 |
| By: | Erik Hurst; Patrick J. Kehoe; Elena Pastorino; Thomas Winberry |
| Abstract: | We develop a dynamic macroeconomic framework with worker heterogeneity, putty-clay adjustment frictions, and firm monopsony power to study the distributional impact of labor market policies over time. Our framework reconciles the well-known tension between low short-run and high long-run elasticities of substitution across inputs of production, especially among workers with different skills within a same education group. We use this framework to evaluate the effects of redistributive policies such as the minimum wage and the Earned Income Tax Credit. We argue that since these policies generate slow transition dynamics that can differ greatly in the short and long run, a serious assessment of their overall impact must take account of the entire time path of the responses they induce. |
| JEL: | E22 E24 J08 J42 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33614 |
| By: | Bertheau, Antoine (Norwegian School of Economics); Hoeck, Christian Philip (University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | This paper yields new insights into why similar workers are paid differently by surveying a representative sample of Danish firms and linking responses to administrative data. We find that a substantial minority of firms, about 18 percent, have inaccurate beliefs about their position in the wage distribution. Inaccurate beliefs are more likely to occur in smaller firms. To study the implications of firms’ inaccurate beliefs, we build a simple model with monopsonistic firms. Using our survey, we elicit firms’ motives for setting high wages. The dominant motive aligns with wage-posting models, i.e., retaining and attracting new employees. The least common motive is compensating for negative job characteristics. |
| Keywords: | firm information frictions, wage dispersion, biased beliefs |
| JEL: | J01 J31 J42 D83 M52 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17762 |
| By: | Albertini, Mattia (University of Svizzera Italiana); Bakx, Pieter (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Mazzonna, Fabrizio (USI Università della Svizzera Italiana) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the health and labor market consequences of primary care variation in benzodiazepine prescriptions, a common type of low-value care. Linking Dutch general practitioners’ records to administrative data, we construct an exogenous measure of prescribing behavior that exploits institutional constraints limiting patient choice. Using the loss of a close relative as a common mental health shock and a dynamic difference-in-differences approach, we find that patients treated by high-prescribing GPs are more likely to receive out-of-guidelines benzodiazepine prescriptions, become long-term users, and are less likely to access specialized mental health care. These patients also experience worse labor market outcomes, including increased short-term reliance on unemployment benefits and substantial long-term declines in earnings, primarily driven by reduced wages. |
| Keywords: | labor market, mental health, prescribing style, primary care, benzodiazepine, bereavement |
| JEL: | I11 I18 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17771 |
| By: | Maclean, J. Catherine (Temple University); Pabilonia, Sabrina Wulff (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) |
| Abstract: | Unlike most developed countries, the U.S. lacks a federal paid sick leave policy. As a result, many workers must choose between losing earnings and attending to childcare responsibilities. To date, 17 states and the District of Columbia have adopted or announced paid sick leave mandates that provide up to seven days of paid leave per year that can be used for family responsibilities and healthcare. In this study, we estimate the effects of state paid sick leave mandates on parents’ time spent providing childcare using time diaries from the 2004–2023 American Time Use Survey. Findings from difference-in-differences estimators suggest that post-mandate, parental time spent providing childcare increases by 5.8%. Effects are stronger among women with younger children. Overall, our findings suggest that paid sick leave mandates allow parents to better balance work and family responsibilities. |
| Keywords: | childcare, mandated benefits, paid sick leave, time use |
| JEL: | I18 J28 J32 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17786 |
| By: | Attar, Itay (Ben Gurion University); Cohen-Zada, Danny (Ben Gurion University) |
| Abstract: | Using Israeli data, we establish that the interaction between school entrance age (SEA) policy and youth employment laws increases high school dropout rates among students who start school older—particularly males. This is because these students become eligible for employment at an earlier grade, increasing their likelihood and duration of work, which amplifies dropout rates. Intriguingly, this effect is primarily driven by students who achieved above-average test scores in elementary school. Among males, a higher SEA also reduces participation in and scores on a college entry exam, as well as college enrollment. Unlike most previous estimates, our estimates of the effect of SEA on college entry-exam scores are free from age-at-test effects. In the longer run, a higher SEA reduces educational attainment for both males and females and has a sizable negative, though statistically nonsignificant, effect on their earnings. Our findings suggest that replacing the minimum working age in youth employment laws with a minimum-grade-completion requirement could mitigate the unintended consequence of higher dropout rates among older school entrants. |
| Keywords: | returns to education, compulsory schooling, high school dropout, youth employment, school entrance age, date of birth, test scores |
| JEL: | I20 I28 J22 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17790 |
| By: | Isabella Maassen; Filip Mellgren; Jonas Overhage |
| Abstract: | Monopsonistic labor markets create misallocation of labor while generating profits. These in turn incentivize firms to innovate, which drives aggregate growth. This paper explores the trade-off between static efficiency and growth by developing a tractable endogenous growth model with heterogeneous firms and upward sloping labor supply curves. We show that monopsony can rationalize the prevalence of unproductive yet innovating firms that would otherwise be crowded out by more productive competitors. Our model calibrated to U.S. data confirms previous findings that imperfectly competitive labor markets distort static efficiency. However, we find that monopsony also leads to higher growth. On balance, we estimate that a 1% narrowing of the markdown increases the present value of output by about 1.08%. |
| Keywords: | monopsony power, creative destruction, productivity, innovation, economic growth. |
| JEL: | O31 O47 J42 E24 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11820 |
| By: | Brian J. Asquith (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research) |
| Abstract: | Do older workers change their labor supply in response to unexpected housing wealth losses (or gains)? Housing wealth is the largest component in most older Americans’ portfolios, and they may seek to recoup losses by working longer to help smooth consumption in retirement. Despite its importance, prior studies have not arrived at a consensus answer. I perform three different analyses to re-approach this question using Health and Retirement Study (HRS) data: a descriptive analysis, two separate differences-in-differences-indifferences analyses exploiting the China Shock and the Great Recession, and an analysis employing autoregressive models for estimating unexpected shocks to housing price appreciation. All three analyses concur that older homeowners do not significantly change their labor supply or Social Security claiming behavior in response to unexpected housing wealth gains or losses. Subgroup analyses suggest that college-educated workers may be the most responsive, even though housing wealth makes up a lower share of their total wealth, probably due to their comparably greater employment resiliency in weak labor markets. |
| Keywords: | older workers, labor supply, homeownership, Chinese import competition |
| JEL: | J26 J22 J21 R23 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:25-415 |
| By: | Adam Gill; Lena E. Hensvik; Oskar Nordström Skans |
| Abstract: | In this article, we show that working from home is much more prevalent in the Nordic countries than in the rest of Europe and we discuss potential causes and labor market consequences of this stylized fact. Likely contributing causes include a good technological infrastructure and comparatively widespread digital preparedness in the population. Recent research also suggests that trust is a crucial prerequisite for maintaining a spatial separation between supervisors and workers in marginal occupations. We show that survey measures of trust are extremely high in all Nordic countries, and that these measures correlate very strongly with work-from-home across countries and industries in Europe even controlling for a range of cross-country differences. Finally, we discuss potential spillover effects of increased hybrid work on the Nordic labor markets. We show evidence suggesting that increased hybrid work has caused a relocation of the production of local service firms from business centers to high-work-from-home residential areas, without affecting average commuting distances of service workers. |
| JEL: | J32 M54 R30 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33581 |
| By: | Mertz, Mikkel (Rockwool Foundation Research Unit); Ronchi, Maddalena (Northwestern University); Salvestrini, Viola (Bocconi University) |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that exposure to entrepreneurs during adolescence increases women's entry and performance in entrepreneurship and improves the allocation of talent in the economy. Using population-wide registry data from Denmark, we exploit idiosyncratic within-school, cross-cohort variation in early exposure to entrepreneurs, measured by the share of an adolescent's peers whose parents are entrepreneurs at the end of compulsory school. Early exposure, particularly to the entrepreneur parents of female peers, encourages girls' entry and tenure into this profession, while it has no impact on boys. This effect is associated with the creation of successful and female-friendly firms. Furthermore, early exposure reduces women's probability to discontinue education at the end of compulsory school and to hold low wage jobs through their lives. Finally, we find evidence in support of three main channels: (i) access to specific information; (ii) changes in aspirations and goals; (iii) increased consideration of entrepreneurship as a potential career. Together these results challenge the view that the most successful female entrepreneurs would enter this profession regardless of early exposure. |
| Keywords: | occupational choice, talent allocation, entrepreneurship, gender |
| JEL: | J24 J16 L26 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17801 |
| By: | Dolado, Juan J. (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Jáñez, Álvaro (Stockholm School of Economics); Wellschmied, Felix (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | Online food delivery platforms typically operate through a controversial business model that relies on subcontracting self-employed workers, known as riders. We quantify the labor-market effects of the Spanish Riders' Law in 2021 that established the presumption of dependent employment for riders using a search and matching model. Riders with heterogeneous preferences for leisure trade off work flexibility and easier employability as self-employed against enjoying higher wages as employees. Our main finding is that the reform led to a higher share of employees but failed to fully absorb the large flows of workers transiting out of self-employment and decreased riders' wages leading to welfare losses. However, complementing the reform with a payroll tax cut for platforms hiring employees preserves employment levels and increases riders' welfare. |
| Keywords: | riders, food delivery platforms, self-employed, employees |
| JEL: | J21 J60 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17740 |
| By: | Cabral, Sónia (Banco de Portugal); Garcia, Joana (Banco de Portugal); Miranda, Raquel (Banco de Portugal); Peralta, Susana (Nova School of Business and Economics); Pereira dos Santos, João (Queen Mary University of London) |
| Abstract: | What type of employment exists in low-tax jurisdictions? How are employment and individual workers affected by reforms aimed at better aligning profits with real activities? Using a unique employer-employee dataset for Zona Franca da Madeira, a tax paradise on a Portuguese island, we show that workers are highly educated, perform specialized tasks, and benefit from a wage gap, particularly at the top. A reform designed to link profits more closely with real substance resulted in worker exits, while those who remained experienced wage increases and a higher likelihood of working for multiple firms simultaneously. New hires faced more precarious conditions, earning, on average, 30% less than incumbents, often working under temporary contracts. These results offer insights into policies promoting economic substance in low-tax jurisdictions. |
| Keywords: | substance requirements, labor market, corporate tax avoidance, matched employer-employee data |
| JEL: | J08 H26 F23 J31 J38 J48 H30 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17799 |
| By: | Oberfichtner, Michael (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Popp, Martin (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg) |
| Abstract: | Using register data, we document that the average German labor market, defined by hires in combinations of 3-digit occupations, requirement levels, and commuting zones, is highly concentrated (HHI=0.257). By EU antitrust thresholds, 56 percent of these labor markets feature moderate or high concentration, covering 9 percent of workers. Concentration remained relatively stable between 2012 and 2023. The labor market delineation strongly affects the measured level of concentration but not its evolution, whereas the choice of the firm size variable has little influence. Concentration differs starkly across occupations and regions, and workers in complex jobs experience the highest levels of concentration. |
| Keywords: | labor market concentration, monopsony power, occupations |
| JEL: | J42 L10 J60 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17745 |
| By: | James J. Choi; Dong Huang; Zhishu Yang; Qi Zhang |
| Abstract: | How good is AI at persuading humans to perform costly actions? We study calls made to get delinquent consumer borrowers to repay. Regression discontinuity and a randomized experiment reveal that AI is substantially less effective than human callers. Replacing AI with humans six days into delinquency closes much of the gap. But borrowers initially contacted by AI have repaid 1% less of the initial late payment one year later and are more likely to miss subsequent payments than borrowers who were always called by humans. AI’s lesser ability to extract promises that feel binding may contribute to the performance gap. |
| JEL: | D14 G4 G51 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33669 |
| By: | Biasi, Barbara (Yale School of Management); Sandholtz, Wayne Aaron (Nova School of Business and Economics) |
| Abstract: | Public service reforms often provoke political backlash. Can they also yield political benefits for the politicians who champion them? We study a Wisconsin law that weakened teachers' unions and liberalized pay, prompting mass protests. Exploiting its staggered implementation across school districts, we find that the reform cut union revenues, raised student test scores, and increased pay for some teachers. Exposure to the law increased the incumbent governor's vote share by about 20% of his margin of victory and reduced campaign contributions to his opponent. Gains were larger in districts with stronger unions ex ante and in those where more voters benefited from the reform. Our findings highlight how even politically risky reforms can generate electoral benefits under the right circumstances. |
| Keywords: | Teacher Salaries, Collective Bargaining, Political Feasibility, Education Reform |
| JEL: | I20 P46 P11 J31 J45 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17836 |
| By: | Adamecz, Anna (University College London); Prinz, Daniel (World Bank); Vujic, Suncica (University of Antwerp); Szabo-Morvai, Agnes (KRTK KTI; Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Institute of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the labor market impacts of a reform that universally lowered the school leaving age from 18 to 16 in Hungary. Using a difference-in-cross-cohort-comparisons approach and linked individual education-employment administrative panel data, we find that the policy led to an increase in the likelihood of dropping out from school and inactivity among individuals aged 16 to 18 but no corresponding increase in employment. Dropouts who were employed predominantly worked in low-skilled occupations. These effects were more pronounced among those from lower socioeconomic status, exacerbating existing inequalities. Our results suggest that the decrease in the school leaving age had adverse effects on school to work transition and did not yield the expected improvements in labor market integration. |
| Keywords: | school leaving age, employment, education reform |
| JEL: | I21 J13 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17844 |
| By: | Duleep, Harriet (College of William and Mary); Dowhan, Daniel J. (U.S. Office of Research); Liu, Xingfei (University of Alberta); Regets, Mark (National Foundation for American Policy); Gesumaria, Robert (U.S. Office of Research) |
| Abstract: | Fueling debates about the “quality” of immigrants from economically developing countries, empirical studies based on a well-respected methodology conclude that post-1965 immigrant men have low initial earnings and sluggish earnings growth. This methodology is based on flawed assumptions (Duleep, Liu, and Regets, 2022). Removing these assumptions reveals high earnings growth for post-1965 immigrant men in accordance with the Immigrant Human Capital Investment Model (Duleep and Regets, 1999). A similar story emerges for immigrant women, contradicting the Family Investment Hypothesis first put forth by Long (1980) and Duleep and Sanders (1993). It appears a pre-1965/post-1965 transition occurred in the earnings profiles of U.S. immigrants, from earnings resembling those of U.S. natives to low initial earnings but much higher earnings growth than their U.S.-born statistical twins. The transition underlies the overtime success story of immigrant families from economically developing countries (Duleep, Regets, Sanders, and Wunnava, 2021); the high earnings growth reflects human capital investment that invigorates the economy (Duleep, Jaeger, and McHenry, 2018; Green, 1999, Green and Worswick, 2012). |
| Keywords: | human capital investment, skill transferability, immigrant quality, sample restrictions, family investment hypothesis, immigrant earning growth, nonparametric estimation |
| JEL: | J15 J16 J24 J31 C1 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17831 |
| By: | Christian Arciniegas; Christelle Dumas; Matthias Fahn |
| Abstract: | We investigate labor exchange teams in rural communities, which are prevalent in many developing countries. We show theoretically that these teams are beneficial to employers, who can outsource the monitoring of workers. Team members are incentivized to exert a high level of effort because any deviation would lead to the dissolution of their production team. Data from Tanzania support the model's predictions: members of labor exchange teams are more likely to obtain paid work and are often hired to perform tasks for which monitoring is costly. Consequently, this informal arrangement helps reduce moral hazard in the context of employment relationships. |
| Keywords: | relational contracts, labor exchange, labor market, information asymmetries, Tanzania. |
| JEL: | D86 J43 J46 L14 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11809 |
| By: | Arntz, Melanie (ZEW Mannheim); Böhm, Michael Johannes (TU Dortmund); Graetz, Georg (Uppsala University); Gregory, Terry (LISER); Lehmer, Florian (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Lipowski, Cäcilia (ZEW) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the diffusion of frontier technologies across German firms before and during the Covid-19 crisis. Our analysis tracks the nature, timing, and pandemic-related motivations behind technology investments, using tailor-made longitudinal survey data linked to administrative worker--firm records. Technologies adopted after the onset of the pandemic increasingly facilitated remote work and mitigated the negative employment effects of the crisis. Overall, however, investments in frontier technologies declined sharply, equivalent to a loss of 1.4 years of pre-pandemic investment activity. This procyclical adoption pattern is particularly striking since the pandemic created clear incentives to experiment with new technologies. Our findings highlight how short-run fluctuations may influence medium-run economic growth through their impact on technology diffusion. |
| Keywords: | cyclicality of technology adoption, firm-level survey data, frontier technology investments, Covid-19 crisis |
| JEL: | O33 E22 E32 J23 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17846 |
| By: | Gu, Wulong |
| Abstract: | Despite their good intent, regulations and their accumulation over time impose real costs to businesses and may have a negative impact on economic growth and competitiveness. Accurately measuring these costs and benefits is important for understanding if regulations are achieving their desired results. This paper uses a new, modelled, measure of regulatory burden developed by KPMG and Transport Canada to inform about the possible overall impact of the changing number of regulations faced by firms on Canadian economic activity. Measuring regulatory burden is complex, and there is not a consensus on the best approach. The novel Transport Canada – KPMG measure is based on counting the number of regulatory provisions in Federal legislation and is one of several aggregate measures of regulatory burden available. It shows that regulatory requirements in Canada rose 2.1% per year from 2006 to 2021. A measure from the US based Mercatus Center that is not as broadly defined showed an increase in the number of provisions rising 1.1% per year over the same period while the OECD measure of product market regulation (PMR) that tracks the stringency, rather than the number, of regulations declined. Using the newly developed Transport Canada – KPMG measure, regression estimates show that regulatory accumulation from 2006 to 2021 is associated with a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 1.7 percentage points and reduced employment growth by 1.3 percentage points in the business sector. A smaller decline on labour productivity of 0.4 percentage points was also estimated. The business sector investment growth was lowered by an estimated 9.0% (with the effect being bigger for small firms than for large firms) for the period 2006 to 2021 and that regulatory accumulation is associated with lower business entry and exit rates. Understanding economy wide costs and benefits from regulations is challenging. The results of the study provide a first indication for Canada of the estimated impacts of the changing number of regulations over time on businesses. While the results of the study point to potentially important costs for the economy, it is not meant to reflect a full economic assessment of the benefits of regulations nor economic impacts associated with not introducing regulations. |
| Keywords: | Business, Economic Growth, Regulatory Accumulation, Economic impacts, Business Dynamism |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2025–02–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp3e:2025002e |
| By: | Alex Farnell (Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, Maynooth University.); David Berri (Southern Utah University); Vincent O’Sullivan (University of Limerick); Robert Simmons (Lancaster University) |
| Abstract: | The National Football League (NFL) has long been criticised for its lack of minority leadership. Fewer than 25% of the league’s players are white. But at the start of the 2024 season, more than 80% of head coaches were white. Past studies into this issue tended to focus on the labour market for head coaches. Instead, we consider the entire pipeline of coaches up to the role of head coach, spanning 1989-2020. We find that race is not a significant explanatory variable in explaining promotions to head coach. We do, however, identify race as a barrier to promotions from certain position coach roles. Thus, the league’s affirmative action policy, the Rooney Rule, might not be attempting to correct for discriminatory hiring at the correct level. Classification-J71, Z21, Z22 |
| Keywords: | racial discrimination, NFL, coaches |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:may:mayecw:n321-25.pdf |
| By: | Damm, Anna Piil (Aarhus University); Hassani, Ahmad (Aarhus University); Sørensen, Jonas Søndergaard (Aarhus University) |
| Abstract: | This paper asks whether Denmark’s large-scale intervention in disadvantaged public-housing neighbourhoods on the “Ghetto List” in 2010 altered the trajectories of the neighbourhoods and improved economic outcomes of pre-existing residents through infrastructural improvements and social programmes. We leverage a novel geo-referenced data set linked with administrative registers and defines similar, yet untargeted neighbourhoods and their pre-existing residents as the control group. Our difference-in-difference estimates show that the programme reduced crime, both through a short-run compositional change, and through an 9.5% reduction in the likelihood of a criminal conviction among pre-existing residents, driven by those with a history of criminal activity. |
| Keywords: | local community development, economic deprivation, human resources, residential segregation, migration, public policy analysis |
| JEL: | J6 J24 O15 R23 R28 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17843 |
| By: | Melanie Arntz; Michael Böhm; Georg Graetz; Terry Gregory; Florian Lehmer; Cäcilia Lipowski |
| Abstract: | We investigate the diffusion of frontier technologies across German firms before and during the Covid-19 crisis. Our analysis tracks the nature, timing, and pandemic-related motivations behind technology investments, using tailor-made longitudinal survey data linked to administrative worker–firm records. Technologies adopted after the onset of the pandemic increasingly facilitated remote work and mitigated the negative employment effects of the crisis. Overall, however, investments in frontier technologies declined sharply, equivalent to a loss of 1.4 years of pre-pandemic investment activity. This procyclical adoption pattern is particularly striking since the pandemic created clear incentives to experiment with new technologies. Our findings highlight how short-run fluctuations may influence medium-run economic growth through their impact on technology diffusion. |
| Keywords: | frontier technology investments, firm-level survey data, cyclicality of technology adoption, Covid-19 crisis. |
| JEL: | O33 E22 E32 J23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11825 |
| By: | Stelios Michalopoulos; Elie Murard; Elias Papaioannou; Seyhun Orcan Sakalli |
| Abstract: | More than a century has passed since the abrupt exodus of 1.2 million Greek Orthodox from Anatolia and their resettlement in Greece, a transformative event for the country’s social and demographic landscape. Today, more than one in three Greeks reports a refugee background. While its historical significance is well-documented, its short-, medium-, and long-term impact on human capital accumulation remains unexplored. How did forced displacement shape the educational trajectories of the uprooted and their offspring? Did refugees invest in portable skills to respond to uncertainty, or did they struggle to catch up with the autochthonous? To address these questions, we trace the educational investments of refugees and their descendants over the last 100 years, leveraging granular census data and a comprehensive mapping of both their origins in Anatolia and their settlements in Greece. The analysis provides compelling support for the uprootedness hypothesis. Though initially lagging, refugees settling in the Greek countryside eventually outperformed nearby natives in educational attainment. Their university choices also diverged, with refugees’ lineages favoring degrees transferable beyond the Greek labor market, such as engineering and medicine, and natives specializing in law and other fields with a strong home bias. Exploring additional mechanisms reveals the critical role of linguistic barriers and local economic conditions in shaping these outcomes, rather than the refugees’ pre-migration economic background. The widespread educational gains of refugees and their descendants over four generations offer some hope that the ongoing surge of forced displacement, despite its tragedy, if properly addressed by the international community, can be a backbone of economic resilience for the affected communities. |
| JEL: | J24 N34 N44 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33586 |
| By: | Mert Akan; Jose Maria Barrero; Nicholas Bloom; Thomas Bowen; Shelby R. Buckman; Steven J. Davis; Hyoseul Kim |
| Abstract: | We use matched employer-employee data to study where Americans live in relation to employer worksites. Mean distance from employee home to employer worksite rose from 15 miles in 2019 to 26 miles in 2023. Twelve percent of employees hired after March 2020 live at least fifty miles from their employers in 2023, triple the pre-pandemic share. Distance from employer rose more for persons in their 30s and 40s, in highly paid employees, and in Finance, Information, and Professional Services. Among persons who stay with the same employer from one year to the next, we find net migration to states with lower top tax rates and areas with cheaper housing. These migration patterns greatly intensify after the pandemic and are much stronger for high earners. Top tax rates fell 5.2 percentage points for high earners who stayed with the same employer but switched states in 2020. Finally, we show that employers treat distant employees as a more flexible margin of adjustment. |
| JEL: | J20 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33582 |
| By: | Domnisoru, Ciprian (Aalto University); Miller, Robert A. (Carnegie Mellon University) |
| Abstract: | Sons succeed their exiting CEO parents more often than daughters. How do entrepreneurial families reach this gender imbalance, and how does it affect the prospects of their firms and their offspring? Using Finnish administrative data on firms linked to population register data on shareholders and their extended families, we trace the steps leading to the succession decision, and its outcomes. We examine fertility patterns, finding evidence of son preference in natural births and adoptions by entrepreneurs. In families that appear to follow son-biased fertility stopping rules, we also find noticeable differences in human capital accumulation between sons and daughters. The transmission of human capital is also mediated by the extent to which women are employed in the industry of the entrepreneur parent. Gaps in income, board membership, and share ownership between sons and daughters of exiting CEOs emerge well before succession. Turning to firm outcomes, we find evidence that other family members, but not the children of exiting CEOs, appear to diminish firm performance relative to the results of professional CEOs. Overall, our results show family succession is a protracted process that begins with the birth of the first child. |
| Keywords: | gender differences, CEO transition, son preference, family firms, human capital |
| JEL: | G32 L25 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17800 |
| By: | Yibing Wang (King's College London); Steven Ongena (University of Zurich - Department Finance; Swiss Finance Institute; KU Leuven; NTNU Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)); Duc Duy Nguyen (Durham University); Tarik Driouchi (King’s College London) |
| Abstract: | Using the staggered adoption of paid sick leave (PSL) mandates across US states, we document a 20% increase in the average household stock market participation following the enactment of a PSL policy. The effects are more pronounced among households facing greater health concerns, higher employment risks, and deeper financial vulnerabilities. Several mechanisms can explain our findings. PSL mandates offer households insurance-like protection, increase their income and wealth, and improve households' future outlook. Our findings demonstrate that PSL laws create positive economic externalities by motivating households to invest in risky assets, a key factor toward building wealth. |
| Keywords: | Paid sick leave, Household finance, Stock market participation, Social insurance, Financial health |
| JEL: | G51 I18 J22 J32 M5 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2521 |
| By: | Patrinos, Harry Anthony (University of Arkansas, Fayetteville); Jakubowski, Maciej (University of Warsaw); Gajderowicz, Tomasz (University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread disruptions to education, with school closures affecting over one billion children. These closures, aimed at reducing virus transmission, resulted in significant learning losses, particularly in mathematics and science. Using United States data from TIMSS, this study analyzes the impact of school closure on learning outcomes. The losses amount to 0.36 SD for mathematics and 0.16 SD for science. The declines are similar across grades. The average decline in mathematics performance among U.S. students is substantially greater than the global average. n science, the decline observed among U.S. students does not significantly differ from the global trend. Girls experienced greater deviations from long-term trends than boys across both subjects and grade levels, reversing long term trends that once favored girls. Robustness checks confirm that pandemic-related school closures caused the decline in mathematics, while the downturn in science had already begun before COVID-19. |
| Keywords: | pandemics, human capital, returns to education, labor markets, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | E24 J11 J17 J31 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17755 |
| By: | Randall Akee; Maggie R. Jones; Emilia Simeonova |
| Abstract: | Tribal lands in the U.S. have historically experienced some of the worst economic conditions in the nation. We review some existing research on the effect of American Indian tribal casinos on various measures of local economic development. This is an industry that began in the early 1990s and currently generates more than $40 billion annually. We also review the state of the literature on the effects of casino operations on communities in or adjacent to tribal areas. Using a new dataset linking individual and enterprise-level data longitudinally, this study examines the industry- and location-specific impacts of tribal casino operations. We focus in particular on the employment of American Indians. We document positive flows from unemployment and non-casino geographies to work in sectors related to casino operations. Tribal casinos differ from other standard place-based economic development projects in that they are focused on a single industry; we discuss these differences and note that some of the positive spillover effects may be similar to other, more standard place-based policies. Finally, we discuss additional and open-ended questions for future research on this topic. |
| Keywords: | Employment, Business Enterprises, Regional Economic Development, American Indians, Place Based Policies |
| JEL: | R11 J20 O2 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:25-24 |