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on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages |
| By: | Johanna Muffert; Regina T. Riphahn |
| Abstract: | Multiple job holding (MJH) is increasingly frequent in industrialized countries. Individuals holding a secondary job add to their experience, skills, and networks. We study the long-run labor market outcomes after MJH and investigate whether career effects can be validated. We employ high-quality administrative data from Germany. Our doubly robust estimation method combines entropy balancing with fixed effects difference-in-differences regressions. We find that income from primary employment declines after MJH spells and overall annual earnings from all jobs increase briefly. Job mobility increases after MJH spells. Interestingly, the beneficial long-term effects of MJH are largest for disadvantaged groups in the labor market such as females, those with low earnings, and low education. Overall, we find only limited benefits of MJH. |
| Keywords: | secondary job holding, moonlighting, Minijob, entropy balancing, investment motive, administrative data, fixed effects, difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | J22 J24 C21 M53 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11624 |
| By: | Iacopo Morchio; Christian Moser |
| Abstract: | Using linked employer-employee data from Brazil, we document a large gender pay gap due to women working at lower-paying employers. To interpret this fact, we develop an equilibrium search model with endogenous firm pay, amenities, and hiring. We provide a constructive proof of identification of all model parameters. The estimated model suggests that amenities are important for both men and women and that compensating differentials explain half of the gender pay gap. Equal-treatment policies partly close gender gaps but are not output- or welfare-improving. |
| Keywords: | wage inequality, amenities, equilibrium search model, linked employer-employee data, compensating differentials, taste-based discrimination, monopsony power |
| JEL: | E24 J16 J31 J32 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11617 |
| By: | Carrillo-Tudela, Carlos; Summerfield, Fraser; Visschers, Ludo |
| Abstract: | We investigate cyclical changes in workers' task portfolios, highlighting their direction, magnitude, and distribution. Task changes are not only very common but provide information about the skills required across jobs. During recessions, a larger share of employer switches do not involve task changes. When changes occur, they tend to be more substantial. The cyclicality of task changes among employer-to-employer movers contrasts sharply with that of hires from unemployment. We link our findings to the "sullying" and "cleansing" effects of recessions, uncovering a novel cleansing effect associated with employer-to-employer transitions and a sullying effect tied to employer changes through unemployment. |
| Keywords: | Career Change, Occupational Mobility, Tasks, Business Cycles |
| JEL: | E32 J24 J62 E24 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:clefwp:310327 |
| By: | Sumit Chowdhury; Sugata Marjit; Gouranga Das |
| Abstract: | While FTA negotiations are proliferating, our paper shows that targeting the appropriate sector is crucial for generating employment opportunities subsequent to FTA. In particular, we show that, countering conventional wisdom, targeting skill-biased exports and not the sector that employs unskilled workers who usually constitute the large core of the unemployed, could ameliorate the unemployment problem. The mechanism hinges on how the demand for goods produced by the non-traded sector is stimulated by such a policy. If targeting the skilled sector with an FTA can stimulate local demand more, employment impact of FTA may be more significant. |
| Keywords: | FTA, minimum wage, demand effect, non-tradable, employment, elasticity of substitution, factor-intensity |
| JEL: | C52 D50 F16 J21 J31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11657 |
| By: | Marco De Simone; Dario Guarascio; Jelena Reljic |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of robotisation on workplace safety in EU manufacturing sectors between 2011 and 2019. To address endogeneity concerns, we employ an instrumental variable approach and find that robot adoption reduces both injuries and fatalities. Specifically, a 10 per cent increase in robot adoption is associated with a 0.066 per cent reduction in fatalities and a 1.96 per cent decrease in injuries. Our findings highlight the context-dependent nature of these effects. The safety benefits of robotisation materialise only in high-tech sectors and in countries where industrial relations provide strong worker protections. In contrast, in traditional industries and countries with weaker institutional frameworks, these benefits remain largely unrealised. The results are robust to several sensitivity tests. |
| Keywords: | EU, robotisation; technology; workplace safety; injuries; fatalities; industrial relations |
| JEL: | J01 J08 J28 J50 J81 L60 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp255 |
| By: | Peter Savelyev (Department of Economics, VCU School of Business); Atticus Bolyard (Center for Education Policy Research, Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | Based on the sample of The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health), we investigate the formation of health capital and the role played by genetic endowments, parental SES, and education. To measure genetic endowments, we take advantage of the new availability of quality polygenic indexes (PGIs), which are weighted summaries of individual molecular genetic data. Our main focus is on the Educational Attainment Polygenic Index (EA PGI), which is designed to predict the highest level of education achieved in life. We find that the EA PGI demonstrates stronger effects on health and health behaviors for subjects with high parental socioeconomic status (SES). These effects are only partially explained by education as a mechanism. We provide suggestive evidence for the mechanisms behind estimated relationships, including early health, skills, and the parents’ and child’s own attitudes towards education, as well as outcomes related to occupation and wealth. We also show that a strong association between education and health survives controlling not only for detailed traditional controls and cognitive-noncognitive skills, but also for a large set of PGIs that proxy health, skills, and environment, all of which are major expected confounders. This result is suggestive of a causal effect of education on health. |
| Keywords: | health, health behaviors, polygenic index, polygenic score, environmental bottleneck, Scarr-Rowe hypothesis, educational attainment, parental socioeconomic status, child development, education, mediators, pleiotropy, Add Health data |
| JEL: | I12 I14 I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vcu:wpaper:2501 |
| By: | Michael Kaganovich; Itzhak Zilcha |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the effects of two kinds of college education subsidies: unconditional tuition discounts and targeted forgiveness of student loans on student college enrollment and completion or dropout decisions. We focus on students’ imperfect knowledge of their academic ability at the time of matriculation and its updating in the course of study as key factors in their responses to funding policies. We find that while unconditional tuition subsidies incentivize both matriculation and continued study even upon the revelation of low ability hence low returns to college, a policy combining such subsidy with partial forgiveness of student debt conditional on dropping out has a doubly efficient effect of risk mitigation: it maintains incentives to matriculate but discourages continued study when low future returns are revealed. It is, moreover, superior in terms of mitigating the “bad debt” held by students, that unrecouped by returns to college. Budget neutral conversion of a part of unconditional tuition subsidy to targeted debt forgiveness reduces the aggregate bad debt held by students. |
| Keywords: | college enrolment, dropout, tuition subsidy, student debt |
| JEL: | H52 I22 J24 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11620 |
| By: | Matsue, Toyoki |
| Abstract: | Securing employment is one of the most important issues for a firm’s production. This study investigates labor demand dynamics in a situation where the firm faces job filling and turnover using numerical analysis. This study derives the relationship between labor input and strategic labor input target and introduces the relationship into a labor demand model. This relationship can be concave, convex, or linear, depending on the ratio of the job-filling rate to job-separation rate. The firm adjusts the labor input by choosing a strategic labor input target that incurs adjustment costs. The response of labor input to a shock in productivity increases with an increase in the ratio in the model with adjustment costs but does not change in the model without adjustment costs. The response of the strategic labor input target to the shock is increased or decreased by increasing the ratio in the model with or without adjustment costs. From the viewpoint of securing employment, a ratio that most easily secures employment exists when a shock occurs. Therefore, policies that increase this ratio may not necessarily facilitate securing employment if the ratio is high. |
| Keywords: | Adjustment costs, Job filling, Job separation, Labor demand, Securing employment |
| JEL: | D21 J23 J30 |
| Date: | 2025–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123533 |
| By: | Pinjas Albagli; Rui Costa; Stephen Machin |
| Abstract: | This report investigates the UK's 2016 National Living Wage (NLW) introduction, focusing on firm adjustment through labour market transitions and job contract amendments. The NLW boosted worker wages, and whilst there was no change in total employment, firms adjusted through changes in employment composition and by altering employment contracts. The NLW spurred increased transitions from temporary to permanent roles, reduced underemployment, and shifted workers away from non-standard arrangements like part-time roles. However, a modest rise in zero-hour contracts among exposed workers reflects the nuanced nature of these adjustments. These contract changes, and shifts in composition and transition dynamics, provide insights into ways in which employers adjustment to cost shocks induced by minimum wage increases, and how at the same time they maintain employment stability and reshape within-firm job and career structures. |
| Keywords: | UK Economy, Wages, employment |
| Date: | 2025–02–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepsps:49 |
| By: | Kanabar, Ricky; Eibich, Peter; Plum, Alexander |
| Abstract: | We study how population variation in testosterone levels impacts male labour market earnings using data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study between 2011 and 2013. We exploit genetic variation between individuals as instrumental variables following a Mendelian Randomization approach to address the endogeneity of testosterone levels. Our findings show that higher testosterone levels have a strong positive impact on earnings. Importantly, these findings are limited to men belonging to the lower quartile of the testosterone distribution and working in higher-paid jobs. We show that differences within rather than between occupations drive these findings, whereas we find limited support for selection into occupation or mechanisms involving individual characteristics, including personality traits and education. |
| Date: | 2025–02–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:iserwp:2025-02 |
| By: | Caldarola, Bernardo (Mt Economic Research Inst on Innov/Techn, RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research); Mazzilli, Dario; Patelli, Aurelio; Sbardella, Angelica |
| Abstract: | Structural change consists of industrial diversification towards more productive, knowledge-intensive activities. However, changes in the productive structure bear in-herent links with job creation and income distribution. In this paper, by taking an economic complexity approach, we investigate the consequences of structural change defined in terms of labour shifts towards more complex industries on employment growth, wage inequality and functional distribution of income. The analysis is con-ducted for European countries using data on disaggregated industrial employment shares over the period 2010 – 2018. First, we identify patterns of industrial specialisa-tion by validating a country-industry industrial employment matrix using a bipartite weighted configuration model (BiWCM). Secondly, we introduce a country-level mea-sure of labour-weighted Economic Fitness, which can be decomposed in such a way as to isolate a component that identifies the movement of labour towards more complex industries the structural change component. Thirdly, we link structural change to i) employment growth, ii) wage inequality, and iii) the labour share of the economy. Our findings indicate that the structural change measure we propose is associated negatively with employment growth. However, it is also associated with lower income inequality: as countries move to more complex industries, they drop the least complex ones, so the (low-paid) jobs in the least complex sectors disappear. Finally, structural change predicts a higher labour ratio of the economy; however, this is likely to be due to the increase in wages rather than to job creation. |
| JEL: | E24 D63 J31 O11 O15 O52 |
| Date: | 2024–11–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2024033 |
| By: | Marius Faber; Kemal Kilic; Gleb Kozliakov; Dalia Marin |
| Abstract: | The world economy has become more and more globalized as firms have organized production along global value chains. But more recently, globalization has stalled. This paper shows that higher uncertainty, in combination with better automation technologies, has likely contributed to that trend reversal. We show that plausibly exogenous exposure to uncertainty in developing countries leads to reshoring to high-income countries, but only if industrial robots have made this economically feasible. In contrast, we find no strong evidence of nearshoring or diversification. We address concerns about reverse causality by showing that results hold when using two alternative identification strategies. In a narrative approach, we use only locally generated spikes in uncertainty, for which the narrative around the events suggest that they are plausibly exogenous. In a small open economy approach, we restrict the sample to small developed countries that are unlikely to cause uncertainty in the developing world. Moreover, we show that results are robust to the main threats to identification related to shift-share instruments. |
| Keywords: | Global value chains, Uncertainty, Automation, Reshoring, Shift-share design |
| JEL: | F14 F15 F16 J23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2025-02 |
| By: | Charles Bellemare; Ibrahima Sory Aissatou Diallo; Marion Goussé |
| Abstract: | In this paper we develop and estimate a job search model with matching and bargaining in the presence of employer taste-based discrimination. The model is estimated using a longitudinal panel data from Canada’s Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID). Estimates suggest that employer discrimination and individual labour costs explain the majority of labour market disparities between persons living with and without disabilities. We use our model to estimate several counterfactuals. We find that implementing a hiring wage subsidy policy could increase the employment rate of persons with disabilities by 7 percentage points. Eliminating discrimination, on the other hand, would have an even greater impact, raising the employment rate by 14 percentage points for men, and 19 percentage points for women. Combining both measures — removing discrimination and introducing a hiring wage subsidy — would lead to an employment rate increase of 20 percentage points for men, and 24 percentage points for women. This combined approach would significantly reduce the existing employment rate gap between persons with and without disabilities. In particular, the employment rate gap is predicted to fall to 33 percentage points for men (relative to 53 percentage points in the data) and to 13 percentage points for women (relative to 39 percentage points in the data). Dans cet article, nous développons et estimons un modèle de recherche d'emploi avec appariement et négociation en présence d'une discrimination fondée sur les préférences de l'employeur. Le modèle est estimé à l'aide d'un panel de données longitudinales provenant de l'Enquête sur la dynamique du travail et du revenu (EDTR) du Canada. Les estimations suggèrent que la discrimination de l'employeur et les coûts individuels du travail expliquent la majorité des disparités sur le marché du travail entre les personnes handicapées et non handicapées. Nous utilisons notre modèle pour estimer plusieurs scénarios contrefactuels. Nous constatons que la mise en œuvre d'une politique de subvention salariale à l'embauche pourrait augmenter le taux d'emploi des personnes handicapées de 7 points de pourcentage. L'élimination de la discrimination, quant à elle, aurait un impact encore plus important, augmentant le taux d'emploi de 14 points de pourcentage pour les hommes et de 19 points de pourcentage pour les femmes. La combinaison des deux mesures - élimination de la discrimination et introduction d'une subvention salariale à l'embauche - entraînerait une augmentation du taux d'emploi de 20 points de pourcentage pour les hommes et de 24 points de pourcentage pour les femmes. Cette approche combinée réduirait de manière significative l'écart de taux d'emploi existant entre les personnes handicapées et non handicapées. En particulier, l'écart de taux d'emploi devrait tomber à 33 points de pourcentage pour les hommes (par rapport à 53 points de pourcentage dans les données) et à 13 points de pourcentage pour les femmes (par rapport à 39 points de pourcentage dans les données). |
| Keywords: | Disability, discrimination, Job search models, Wage subsidies, Handicap, discrimination, Modèles de recherche d'emploi, Subventions salariales |
| Date: | 2025–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2025s-04 |
| By: | Alessandra Bonfiglioli; Rosario Crinò; Mattia Filomena; Gino Gancia |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the determinants of comparative advantage in Artificial Intelligence (AI)-intensive industries using a comprehensive dataset of US imports from 68 countries across 79 manufacturing and service industries over the period 1999–2019. Using a novel measure of AI intensity based on the prevalence of occupations requiring expertise in machine learning and data analysis, we identify key factors influencing exports in AI-intensive industries. Our analysis reveals that countries with larger STEM graduate populations, broader Internet penetration and higher export volumes exhibit stronger export performance in AI-intensive industries. In contrast, regulatory barriers to digital trade are associated with lower AI-intensive exports. These results are robust to controlling for traditional sources of comparative advantage and addressing potential threats to identification. Our findings have implications for understanding competitiveness in the digital economy and highlight that fostering capabilities in data-driven industries may be particularly important due to their pronounced scale economies. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, international trade, digital data, comparative advantage |
| JEL: | F10 F14 J23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11642 |
| By: | Daria Schaller; Jonas Hennrich; Klaus Wohlrabe |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the methodology, content, and evolution of the ifo Human Resources (HR) Survey, a quarterly survey conducted by the ifo Institute since 2008 that targets human resource managers in German firms. While the ifo Institute’s traditional business surveys capture general management perspectives, the ifo HR Survey fills a crucial gap by focusing on personnel management strategies, recruitment practices, and workforce development. The survey consists of regular questions about personnel flexibilization instruments, on the company, or about further training measures complemented by special modules addressing current policy issues and labor market challenges. The paper describes the survey’s panel composition with currently about 900 companies across manufacturing, trade, and the service sector, and explains the weighting procedures used to ensure representativeness of the German economy. Additionally, it catalogs the extensive set of standard and special questions fielded since 2008 covering aspects like the COVID-19 pandemic, demographic changes, and technological transformation. The micro data is available through the LMU-ifo Economics & Business Data Center. |
| Keywords: | human resources survey, personnel management, labor market, firm behavior |
| JEL: | C83 J20 M12 M50 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11638 |