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on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages |
| By: | Fanfani, Bernardo (University of Turin); Passerini, Filippo (Catholic University Milan) |
| Abstract: | This study analyses the impact of vouchers, an Italian alternative work arrangement, on earnings of atypical workers. We investigate whether this form of very flexible casual work substitutes for income from more standard labor contracts and from employment insurance programs. We rely on panel data estimators and a difference-in-differences specification that exploits a plausibly exogenous variation in the use of vouchers. Results show that around 50% of reductions in earnings from vouchers can be compensated by an increase in income derived from standard labor contracts and, to a much lower extent, by higher income from employment insurance. However, when considering a sub-sample of intensive users, only around 10% of losses in earnings from vouchers are compensated by other income sources. Thus, policies aiming at restricting or abolishing alternative work arrangements should be complemented by targeted interventions, particularly on intensive users, in order to mitigate the short-run earning losses of atypical workers. |
| Keywords: | alternative work arrangements, policy evaluation, labor supply, cross-income elasticity, sample selection, difference-in-differences, event-study |
| JEL: | J24 J22 D12 C13 C21 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17399 |
| By: | Garibaldi, Pietro (Collegio Carlo Alberto); Turri, Enrico D. (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The neoclassical growth model assumes fixed labor supply and competitive labor markets. Is it harmless to ignore monopsonistic power in the neoclassical growth model? The paper argues that it is not, especially if a growth model needs to be consistent with the long-run dynamics of the labor share. This paper solves a minimalist growth model with monopsonistic power at the firm level and two production technologies with different degrees of efficiency. The paper shows that monopsonistic power by the representative firm implies either a "level" or a "growth" effect in the determination of the labor share. If the two sectors feature unbalanced growth, the economy converges to a an asymptotic balanced growth in which the labor share asymptotically decline, in line with secular evidence on labor share dynamics. The paper shows also that the monopsonistic equilibrium has sizeable "misallocative" effects, since it implies the use of less efficient technologies that are not used by the optimal growth problem. Finally, the paper shows that the negative welfare effect of monopsony is larger when the model accounts for endogenous labor supply as the redistribution from wages to profits induces a reduction in hours worked. The generalized model is also consistent with recent evidence on balanced growth with declining labor supply. |
| Keywords: | monopsony, growth, unbalanced growth, labor share, misallocation |
| JEL: | O40 O41 J23 J30 J42 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17392 |
| By: | Claudio Schilter; Samuel Lüthi; Stefan C. Wolter |
| Abstract: | We merge experimental data on competitiveness of a large sample of students with their complete educational history for up to ten years after the initial assessment. Exploiting quasi-random class assignments, we find that having competitive peers as classmates makes students choose and secure positions in higher-paying occupations. These occupations are also more challenging and more popular. On the cost side, competitive peers do not lead to a lower probability of graduating from the subsequent job-specific education, but they significantly increase the probability of requiring extra time to do so. |
| Keywords: | peer effects, competitiveness, occupational choice |
| JEL: | C93 D91 J24 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11342 |
| By: | Engberg, Erik (The Ratio Institute); Hellsten, Mark (The Ratio Institute); Javed, Farrukh (The Ratio Institute); Lodefalk, Magnus (The Ratio Institute); Sabolová, Radka (The Ratio Institute); Schroeder, Sara (The Ratio Institute); Tang, Aili (The Ratio Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on hiring and employment, using the universe of job postings published by the Swedish Public Employment Service from 2014-2022 and universal register data for Sweden. We construct a detailed measure of AI exposure according to occupational content and find that establishments exposed to AI are more likely to hire AI workers. Survey data further indicate that AI exposure aligns with greater use of AI services. Importantly, rather than displacing non-AI workers, AI exposure is positively associated with increased hiring for both AI and non-AI roles. In the absence of substantial productivity gains that might account for this increase, we interpret the positive link between AI exposure and non-AI hiring as evidence that establishments are using AI to augment existing roles and expand task capabilities, rather than to replace non-AI workers. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence; Technological Change; Automation; Labour Demand |
| JEL: | D22 J23 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–11–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ratioi:0380 |
| By: | Eichhorst, Werner (IZA); Scalise, Gemma (University of Milano-Bicocca) |
| Abstract: | The permanent restructuring of the economy, exacerbated by the digital transition and combined with labour market dualization, is progressively increasing semi- and low-skilled workers' risk of marginalization. This article analyses how countries balance employment and equality concerns in core private services sectors and inquires the policy strategy that governments in Germany, France, Italy and Spain have implemented over the last two decades for workers 'at the margins'. The analysis encompasses multiple policy tools – skill upgrading, social benefits, incentives to reduce barriers to employment and wage regulation – and reveals varied trajectories. A common direction is followed by Germany and Spain, which have adopted policies to mitigate long-standing labor market dualism by implementing protective policies that aim at improving job conditions for low-wage and at-risk workers. France is stuck in its protective approach, focusing on job stabilization through subsidies without addressing the need for skill development, which limits long-term labor market mobility. Italy is exacerbating dualism by failing to improve job quality and training opportunities, leading to persistent low productivity and increasing in-work poverty. |
| Keywords: | labour market dualism, welfare, low wage sector, semi- and low-skilled, adult learning |
| JEL: | J21 J31 J38 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17378 |
| By: | Ali Sina Önder (University of Portsmouth); Sascha Schweitzer (Reutlingen University); Olga Tcaci (TUD Dresden University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impact of technological innovation on regional labor market outcomes. Our identification strategy exploits pre-reunification complementarities in innovation between East and West Germany. We employ individual-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel to analyze labor market out- comes. Individuals’ income in West German counties with pre-reunification complementarities increased by 1.3%-1.5% on average after reunification. The effect is amplified when disentangling for different occupations: Income increases by 27%-29%, self-employment increases significantly, unemployment remains unaffected. The use of East German know-how in West German patents after reunification is driven by the migration of East German inventors to West German counties. |
| Keywords: | Economic Development; Patent Analysis; Knowledge Complementarities; Occupations; German Reunification |
| JEL: | J24 O31 O33 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–11–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pbs:ecofin:2024-07 |
| By: | Engberg, Erik (Örebro University School of Business); Hellsten, Mark (Aarhus University); Javed, Farrukh (Lund University); Lodefalk, Magnus (Örebro University School of Business); Sabolová, Radka (Örebro University School of Business); Schroeder, Sarah (Aarhus University); Tang, Aili (Örebro University School of Business) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on hiring and employment, using the universe of job postings published by the Swedish Public Employment Service from 2014-2022 and universal register data for Sweden. We construct a detailed measure of AI exposure according to occupational content and find that establishments exposed to AI are more likely to hire AI workers. Survey data further indicate that AI exposure aligns with greater use of AI services. Importantly, rather than displacing non-AI workers, AI exposure is positively associated with increased hiring for both AI and non-AI roles. In the absence of substantial productivity gains that might account for this increase, we interpret the positive link between AI exposure and non-AI hiring as evidence that establishments are using AI to augment existing roles and expand task capabilities, rather than to replace non-AI workers. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence; Technological Change; Automation; Labour Demand |
| JEL: | D22 J23 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–11–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2024_010 |
| By: | Eloiza Regina Ferreira de Almeida; Veneziano C. Araujo; Solange Gonçalves |
| Abstract: | Few studies analyze how the urban wage premium is different for informal workers, and their results are controversial. This paper aims to clarify the reason for this mixed evidence, evaluating how workers’ heterogeneity in terms of labor contract - formal or informal - and occupational position - as wage-earner or self-employed - may impact the magnitude and direction of the UWP estimates. We address this investigation by analyzing the Brazilian labor market using the PNADC (IBGE) longitudinal database for the period from 2012 to 2019. The results show that formal workers present an increasing UWP according to the urban scale, as seen in many previous studies for developed or developing countries. In its turn, informal workers UWP is double the formal ones but is reduced in denser areas. Thus, our study shows previous UWP studies that focus only on formal workers could underestimate the magnitude of this premium for the whole labor market and that disregarding the groups of workers hides the complexity inherent of their insertion in the large urban labor markets. Also, different estimations highlight some mechanisms on the UWP explanation, such as sorting and matching. These results add new insights to the UWP in Brazil, signaling the importance of analyzing the whole labor market. |
| Keywords: | Urban wage premium; Informality; Workers' heterogeneity |
| JEL: | R23 J46 J31 |
| Date: | 2024–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spa:wpaper:2024wpecon25 |
| By: | Belloc, Ignacio (University of Zaragoza); Gimenez-Nadal, José Ignacio (University of Zaragoza); Molina, José Alberto (University of Zaragoza) |
| Abstract: | Telework has gained increasing popularity in recent years, particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic, and is often considered a work practice that contributes to environmental sustainability by reducing commuting trips. However, the existing literature presents mixed findings regarding its potential effects on other types of travel, such as leisure and personal care trips. This paper examines the relationship between telework and daily travel time, utilizing data from the 2023 Extended Light Diary Digital Instrument (ELiDDI) survey, a nationally representative time use survey conducted in the UK in March 2023. Our findings indicate that teleworkers spend fewer minutes (e.g., 61 minutes) traveling per day compared to those working away from home, a result that remains robust even after excluding daily commuting time, suggesting that telework may lead to significant daily travel time savings. Further exploration reveals that telework is primarily related to reduced travel time for personal and housework-related activities, particularly among male teleworkers. These findings suggest that promoting telework policies could be an effective strategy not only for reducing commuting trips but also for achieving broader reductions in daily travel time, which may contribute to sustainability goals in the transportation sector and alleviate transportation-related environmental impacts. |
| Keywords: | daily travel time, travel purposes, telework, time use, ELiDDI data, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | J21 J22 R41 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17413 |
| By: | Pencavel, John H. (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | Why have the real (consumption) wages of U.S. workers risen since the nineteenth century? Some economists answer that increases in real wages have followed increases in labor productivity over time. In this paper, this hypothesized association is confronted with annual observations of changes in the wages and changes in the labor productivity of U.S. manufacturing production workers from the end of the 19th century to the beginning of the 21st century. Correlates with changes in real wages in addition to productivity are considered including statutory legislation, trade unionism, and the state of the business cycle. |
| Keywords: | real wages, labor productivity, trade unions, legislation, monopsony |
| JEL: | J31 N31 N32 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17326 |
| By: | Berson, Clémence; Combes, Pierre-Philippe; Gobillon, Laurent; Sotura, Aurélie |
| Abstract: | We examine how agglomeration economies have influenced labour earnings in France over forty years. First, we define cities dynamically to account for their changing footprints. Our findings show that aggregate wage growth is mainly driven by growth in larger cities, rather than smaller ones or by population shifts across cities. We estimate individual wages incorporating time-varying city and individual fixed effects, and analyse how city characteristics (employment density, area, and market access) and their returns impact wage evolution. Changes in the values of these characteristics have minimal effect, but changes in their returns significantly influence wages, with notable variation across cities. Overall, aggregate wage growth in France reflects larger returns to larger city size. Our model, that incorporate the impact of agglomeration economies on city size and population, suggests that changes in returns do not drive population or area changes sufficiently to impact aggregate labour earnings, supporting our empirical findings. JEL Classification: R23, J31, J61 |
| Keywords: | agglomeration economies, endogenous city size, growth, wages |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242997 |
| By: | Anna Esslinger; Katharina Pfeil; Lars P. Feld |
| Abstract: | Are the effects of tax aversion on labor supply symmetric? In a real-effort online experiment, participants are exposed to manipulated wages and taxes after first experiencing the same reference wage. More participants change their labor supply when encountering a tax increase than when experiencing an equivalent wage decrease. However, there is no significant difference in labor supply change between the groups that received tax decreases and wage increases. Tax averse behavior existing only in the presence of net wage decreases implies asymmetric labor supply responses to taxation. |
| Keywords: | tax aversion, loss aversion, labor supply asymmetry, online experiment |
| JEL: | H20 H30 D91 J22 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11317 |
| By: | Barabasch, Anton (Friedrich Alexander Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Germany); Cygan-Rehm, Kamila (Dresden University of Technology); Leibing, Andreas (Dresden University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the long-run consequences of a later school entry for personality traits. For identification, we exploit the statutory cutoff rules for school enrollment in Germany within a regression discontinuity design. We find that relatively older school starters have persistently lower levels of neuroticism in adulthood. This effect is entirely driven by women, which has important implications for gender gaps in the labor market, as women typically score significantly higher on neuroticism at all stages of life, which puts them at a disadvantage. Our results suggest that family decisions regarding compliance with enrollment cutoffs may have lasting implications for gender gaps in socio-emotional skills. |
| Keywords: | school starting age, personality, socio-emotional skills, education |
| JEL: | I21 I28 J24 D19 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17387 |
| By: | Lukas Buchheim; Sebastian Link; Sascha Möhrle |
| Abstract: | We study the link between expected inflation and wages using novel panel data from German firms and employees. We find that pass-through—the percentage point change in wage growth given a one percentage point change in expected inflation—is small: 0.11–0.17 for firms and 0.03–0.07 for employees. Utilizing variation in the coverage length of collective agreements, we estimate that pass-through at the intensive margin is 1.4-2 times larger than average pass-through, highlighting the importance of wage rigidities for pass-through. Pass-through also rises with the bargaining power of employees. At the extensive margin, expected inflation has little effect on additional wage negotiations. |
| Keywords: | wage expectations, inflation, pass-through, wage-price spirals, bargaining, firms, employees, survey data |
| JEL: | E24 E31 D84 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11329 |
| By: | Haefner, Samuel; Haeusle, Niklas; Koeniger, Winfried; Braun, Alexander |
| Abstract: | We develop a model in which large risk-neutral firms and individual risk-averse consumers compete to employ heterogeneous workers by posting compensation menus. Production takes time, and we analyze how screening motives interact with the desire to smooth consumption. There is a unique symmetric separating equilibrium that is also efficient. In equilibrium, the extent to which the compensation scheme delays payment until the production quality becomes known depends on whether, and to which extent, the consumers are financially constrained. We discuss how our model relates to the design of compensation schemes in current online peer-to-peer markets. |
| Keywords: | Adverse selection, Self selection, Peer-to-peer markets, Labor markets, Capital market imperfections |
| JEL: | D15 D82 D86 E24 J33 M52 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:econwp:2024:05 |
| By: | Di Addario, Sabrina (Bank of Italy); Feng, Zhexin (University of Essex); Serafinelli, Michel (King's College London) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents direct evidence on how firms' innovation is affected by access to knowledgeable labor through co-worker network connections. We use a unique dataset that matches patent data to administrative employer - employee records from "Third Italy" - a region with many successful industrial clusters. Establishment closures displacing inventors generate supply shocks of knowledgeable labor to firms that employ the inventors' previous co-workers. We estimate event-study models where the treatment is the displacement of a "connected" inventor (i.e., a previous coworker of a current employee of the focal firm). We show that the displacement of a connected inventor significantly increases connected inventors' hiring. Moreover, the improved access to knowledgeable workers raises firms innovative activity. We provide evidence supporting the main hypothesized channel of knowledge transfer through firm-to-firm labor mobility by estimating IV specifications where we use the displacement of a connected inventor as an instrument to hire a connected inventor. Overall, estimates indicate that firms exploit displacements to recruit connected inventors and the improved capacity to employ knowledgeable labor within the network increases innovation. |
| Keywords: | social connections, firm-to-firm labor mobility, patents, establishment closure |
| JEL: | J60 O30 J23 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17398 |
| By: | Brüll, Eduard; Rostam-Afschar, Davud; Schlenker, Oliver |
| Abstract: | We study how the threat of entry affects service quantity and quality of general practitioners (GPs). We leverage Germany's needs-based primary care planning system, in which the likelihood of new GPs reduces by 20 percentage points when primary care coverage exceeds a cut-off. We compile novel data covering all German primary care regions and up to 30, 000 GP-level observations from 2014 to 2019. Reduced threat of entry lowers patient satisfaction for incumbent GPs without nearby competitors but not in areas with competitors. We find no effects on working hours or quality measures at the regional level including hospitalizations and mortality. |
| Keywords: | Entry regulation, general practitioners, healthcare provision, threat of entry, regression discontinuity design |
| JEL: | I11 I18 J44 J22 L10 L22 R23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexwps:305253 |
| By: | Yong Suk Lee; Toshiaki Iizuka; Karen Eggleston |
| Abstract: | How do employment, tasks, and productivity change with robot adoption? Unlike manufacturing, little is known about these issues in the service sector, where robot adoption is expanding. As a first step towards filling this gap, we study Japanese nursing homes using original facility-level panel data that includes the different robots used and the tasks performed. We find that robot adoption is accompanied by an increase in employment and retention and the relationship is strongest for non-regular care workers and monitoring robots. The share of specific tasks performed by robots increases with the adoption of the respective type of robot, leading to reallocation of care worker effort to “human touch” tasks that support quality care. Robots are associated with improved quality (reduction in restraint use and pressure ulcers) and productivity. |
| JEL: | I11 J14 J23 O30 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33116 |
| By: | Zuzana Zavarská (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This policy note explores key issues in the Danube Region, focusing on labour market dynamics, including the development of digital skills, foreign direct investment (FDI) with a particular emphasis on FDI in the IT sector, and the robotisation and automation of the region’s industries. Covering 14 countries—Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Germany, Hungary, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Ukraine—it outlines policy recommendations aimed at enhancing workforce readiness, attracting high-tech foreign investments, and ensuring the region's competitiveness in an increasingly digitalised and automated global economy. |
| Keywords: | Danube Region, Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Germany, Hungary, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine, Economic Policy, FDI, Digitalisation, Automation, Labour Market Dynamics, Regional Development |
| JEL: | O52 R58 F21 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:84 |
| By: | Woessmann, Ludger (University of Munich, ifo Institute; Hoover Institution, Stanford University; CESifo; IZA) |
| Abstract: | The multitude of tasks performed in the labor market requires skills in many dimensions. Traditionally, human capital has been proxied primarily by educational attainment. However, an expanding body of literature highlights the importance of various skill dimensions for success in the labor market. This paper examines the returns to cognitive, personality, and social skills as three important dimensions of basic skills. Recent advances in text analysis of online job postings and professional networking platforms offer novel methods for assessing a wider range of applied skill dimensions and their labor market relevance. A synthesis and integration of the evidence on the relationship between multidimensional skills and earnings, including the matching of skill supply and demand, will enhance our understanding of the role of human capital in the labor market. |
| Keywords: | skills, human capital, education, labor market, earnings, tasks, cognitive skills, personality, social skills, multidimensional skills JEL Classification: J24, I26 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:730 |
| By: | Emmens, Joseph; Hutschenreiter, Dennis; Manfredonia, Stefano; Noth, Felix; Santini, Tommaso |
| Abstract: | Does increasing common ownership influence firms' automation strategies? We develop and empirically test a theory indicating that institutional investors' common ownership drives firms that employ workers in the same local labor markets to boost automation-related innovation. First, we present a model integrating task-based production and common ownership, demonstrating that greater ownership overlap drives firms to internalize the impact of their automation decisions on the wage bills of local labor market competitors, leading to more automation and reduced employment. Second, we empirically validate the model's predictions. Based on patent texts, the geographic distribution of firms' labor forces at the establishment level, and exogenous increases in common ownership due to institutional investor mergers, we analyze the effects of rising common ownership on automation innovation within and across labor markets. Our findings reveal that firms experiencing a positive shock to common ownership with labor market rivals exhibit increased automation and decreased employment growth. Conversely, similar ownership shocks do not affect automation innovation if firms do not share local labor markets. |
| Keywords: | automation, common ownership, local labor markets, market power |
| JEL: | G23 J23 L22 O32 O33 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:304457 |
| By: | Margolis, David N. (Paris School of Economics); Montana, Jaime (Universidade Catolica Portuguesa, Porto) |
| Abstract: | This paper contests the traditional view of layoffs as solely reactive to negative economic conditions. Using survey and administrative French data, we provide evidence on how firms strategically utilize mass layoffs to restructure their workforce composition. First, we investigate if firms use layoffs to shift their skill requirements. Analyzing both layoff and matched non-layoff firms, we find firms significantly increase the requirements for social skills while decreasing dependence on manual and cognitive skills requirements after layoffs. This suggests a premeditated reshaping of the workforce instead of a cost-cutting practice. Secondly, we explore the factors influencing selection into displacement during layoffs. We focus on three key aspects: skills mismatch, relative worker quality, and perceived monetary cost. Our findings highlight the significant role of skill mismatch and worker quality in determining dismissal, suggesting firms actively select based on strategic needs. By revealing the strategic nature of mass layoffs and their impact on skills composition and worker selection, this paper offers valuable insights into the understanding of workforce adjustment. Such insights are relevant for policy design. |
| Keywords: | skills, layoffs, mismatch, firm reorganization |
| JEL: | D22 J23 J63 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17426 |
| By: | Yakymovych, Yaroslav (Institute for Housing and Urban Research, Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | Sickness insurance guarantees employees the right to take leave from work when they are sick, but is vulnerable to excessive use because monitoring of recipients’ health is difficult and costly. In terms of costs, it would be preferable to focus monitoring on individuals whose sickness absence it strongly affects. This paper studies targeted monitoring in the setting of a large-scale randomised experiment where medical certificate requirements were relaxed for some workers. I employ a machine learning method, the generalised random forest, to identify heterogeneous effects on the duration of workers’ sickness absence spells. This allows me to compute treatment effect estimates based on an extensive set of worker characteristics and their potentially complex relationships with each other and with sickness absence duration. The individuals who are most sensitive to monitoring are characterised by a history of extensive sick leave uptake, low socioeconomic status, and male gender. The results suggest that a targeted policy can achieve the same reduction in monitoring costs as took place during the experiment at a 51 percent smaller loss in terms of increased sickness absence. Monitoring all insured individuals is estimated to be inefficient, but the benefits of targeted monitoring are estimated to exceed the costs. |
| Keywords: | Sickness Absence; Monitoring; Heterogeneous Effects; GRF |
| JEL: | C21 I18 J22 |
| Date: | 2024–11–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2024_019 |
| By: | Berloffa, Gabriella (University of Trento); Piazzalunga, Daniela (University of Trento); Pieri, Fabio (University of Trento) |
| Abstract: | The paper introduces a new measure of educational mismatch at the firm level, constructed by merging firm and individual data at the sector-firm size-year level. This measure captures both the intensity of mismatch and its type – whether overeducation, undereducation, or a mix of the two. We assess the role of human resource practices in reducing the intensity of educational mismatch in Italian firms by estimating econometric models that control for a rich set of firm characteristics, as well as year and industry-region fixed effects. Firm-fixed effects and instrumental variable models complement the analysis. Findings indicate that the use of private recruitment agencies, on-the-job training, and structured supervision is associated with a reduction in mismatch intensity. The impact of other practices varies by mismatch type: higher job turnover rates correlate with lower undereducation but increased overeducation, while second-level bargaining increases undereducation and reduces overeducation. |
| Keywords: | educational mismatch, human resource practices, firm-level analysis, overeducation, undereducation |
| JEL: | D22 D23 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17424 |
| By: | Marius Faber; Kemal Kilic; Gleb Kozliakov; Dalia Marin |
| Abstract: | The world economy has become more and more globalized as firms have organized production along global value chains. But more recently, globalization has stalled. This paper shows that higher uncertainty, in combination with better automation technologies, has likely contributed to that trend reversal. We show that plausibly exogenous exposure to uncertainty in developing countries leads to reshoring to high-income countries, but only if industrial robots have made this economically feasible. In contrast, we find no strong evidence of nearshoring or diversification. We address concerns about reverse causality by showing that results hold when using two alternative identification strategies. In a narrative approach, we use only locally generated spikes in uncertainty, for which the narrative around the events suggest that they are plausibly exogenous. In a small open economy approach, we restrict the sample to small developed countries that are unlikely to cause uncertainty in the developing world. Moreover, we show that results are robust to the main threats to identification related to shift-share instruments. |
| Keywords: | global value chains, uncertainty, automation, reshoring, shift-share design |
| JEL: | F14 F15 F16 J23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11419 |
| By: | Hyeongwoo Kim; Donggyu Sul |
| Abstract: | Using a statistically robust decomposition framework, we assess group-level contributions to overall economic inequality. Applying this approach to a comprehensive set of microdata files from 1962 to 2019, we find that the recent surge in U.S. inequality is primarily driven by rising within-group income dispersion among the top decile of earners, rather than by between-group inequality (mean differences) relative to the rest of the population. Specifically, our results show that over 87% of post-2000 U.S. pre-tax income inequality can be attributed to income variation within the top 10%, with the top 1% alone accounting for more than 70%. Our post-tax income analysis reveals that a similar pattern, though weaker, where over 80% of post-2000 U.S. post-tax income inequality is explained by within-group inequality among the top decile. Furthermore, our findings suggest that wealth-based inequality in the U.S. is predominantly driven by substantial contributions from the extreme right tail of the distribution. |
| Keywords: | Inequality; Generalized Entropy; Within-Group Inequality; Between-Group Inequality; Population Weights |
| JEL: | E01 H2 H5 J3 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abn:wpaper:auwp2024-06 |