nep-lma New Economics Papers
on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages
Issue of 2024‒05‒13
27 papers chosen by

  1. Heterogeneous Effects of Capital-Embodied Innovation on Labor Market By Hyejin Park; Younghun Shim
  2. Does gender of firm ownership matter? Female entrepreneurs and the gender pay gap By Kritikos, Alexander S.; Maliranta, Mika; Nippala, Veera; Nurmi, Satu
  3. Bad Times, Bad Jobs? How Recessions Affect Early Career Trajectories By Mahajan, Parag; Patki, Dhiren; Stüber, Heiko
  4. Non-monotonic employment effects by market structure and minimum wage level By Devereux, Kevin; Studnicka, Zuzanna
  5. Speeding Up on the Learning Curve: The Evaluation of Telework Following a Surge in Telework Experience By Moens, Eline; Lippens, Louis; D'hert, Liam; Baert, Stijn
  6. Overeducation, Overskilling and Job Satisfaction in Europe: The Moderating Role of Employment Contracts By Giuliano, Romina; Mahy, Benoît; Rycx, François; Vermeylen, Guillaume
  7. Do migrants displace native-born workers on the labour market? The impact of workers' origin By Fays, Valentine; Mahy, Benoît; Rycx, François
  8. Labour Market Performance of Immigrants: New Evidence from Linked Administrative Data By Kaya, Ezgi
  9. Overeducation, Overskilling and Job Satisfaction in Europe: The Moderating Role of Employment Contracts By Romina Giuliano; Benoit Mahy; François Rycx; Guillaume Vermeylen
  10. Differences in On-the-Job Learning across Firms By Jaime Arellano-Bover; Fernando Saltiel
  11. Combining Part-Time Work and Social Benefits: Empirical Evidence from Finland By Kalin, Salla; Kyyrä, Tomi; Matikka, Tuomas
  12. After 40 Years, How Representative Are Labor Market Outcomes in the NLSY79? By Alexander Bick; Adam Blandin; Richard Rogerson
  13. Guarding Expertise and Assets: Non-competition Agreements and Their Implications By Adam Feher
  14. Beauty and Professional Success: A Meta-Analysis By Bortnikova, Kseniya; Havranek, Tomas; Irsova, Zuzana
  15. Automation and flexible labor contracts: Firm-level evidence from Italy By Traverso, Silvio; Vatiero, Massimiliano; Zaninotto, Enrico
  16. The impact of artificial intelligence on output and inflation By Iñaki Aldasoro; Sebastian Doerr; Leonardo Gambacorta; Daniel Rees
  17. Strategic Dynamism, Internal Capabilities and Firm Performance By Arrighetti, Alessandro; Costa, Stefano; De Santis, Stefano; Landini, Fabio
  18. Is the Scholarly Field of Entrepreneurship at Its End? By Naudé, Wim
  19. What Hinders Structural Reforms? By Shangshang Li
  20. A Minimum Wage May Increase Exports and Firm Size Even with a Competitive Labor Market By Leif Danziger
  21. Can a Ban on Child Labour Be Self-Enforcing, and Would It Be Efficient? By Alessandro Cigno
  22. The Impact of Hard Discount Stores on Local Labor Markets: Evidence from Colombia By Lukas Delgado-Prieto; Andrea Otero-Cortés; Andrés Calderón
  23. The spatially uneven diffusion of remote jobs in Europe By Luca, Davide; Özgüzel, Cem; Wei, Zhiwu
  24. Licensed Professionals and Corporate Board Performance: The Effect of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act on the Audit Committee By Ben Posmanick; Alex Obie; Bobby Chung
  25. Offshoring, Reshoring, and the Evolving Geography of Jobs: A Scoping Paper By Stijn Broecke
  26. Tracking Real Time Layoffs with SEC Filings: A Preliminary Investigation By Leland D. Crane; Emily Green; Molly Harnish; Will McClennan; Paul E. Soto; Betsy Vrankovich; Jacob Williams
  27. Sources of post-pandemic inflation in Germany and the euro area: An application of Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) By Menz, Jan-Oliver

  1. By: Hyejin Park; Younghun Shim
    Abstract: This paper develops an occupation-level measure of Capital-Embodied Innovation (CEI) by matching patents with capital goods based on their text similarity. The impact of CEI on labor demand is heterogeneous, depending on the similarity between capital and occupational tasks. Specifically, CEI associated with task-similar capital reduces the relative labor demand, whereas CEI related to task-dissimilar capital raises it. Between 1980 and 2015, capital used by high-wage occupations experienced more innovations in task-dissimilar capital and fewer in task-similar capital. CEI can explain 51% of the relative wage growth in high-wage occupations and significantly contributes to routine- and abstract-biased labor market changes.
    Keywords: capital-embodied innovation, text analysis of patents, substitution between labor and capital
    JEL: J24 J31 O33 O47
    Date: 2024
  2. By: Kritikos, Alexander S.; Maliranta, Mika; Nippala, Veera; Nurmi, Satu
    Abstract: We examine how the gender of business-owners is related to the wages paid to female relative to male employees working in their firms. Using Finnish register data and employing firm fixed effects, we find that the gender pay gap is - starting from a gender pay gap of 11 to 12 percent - two to three percentage-points lower for hourly wages in female-owned firms than in male-owned firms. Results are robust to how the wage is measured, as well as to various further robustness checks. More importantly, we find substantial differences between industries. While, for instance, in the manufacturing sector, the gender of the owner plays no role for the gender pay gap, in several service sector industries, like ICT or business services, no or a negligible gender pay gap can be found, but only when firms are led by female business owners. Businesses in male ownership maintain a gender pay gap of around 10 percent also in the latter industries. With increasing firm size, the influence of the gender of the owner, however, fades. In large firms, it seems that others - firm managers - determine wages and no differences in the pay gap are observed between male- and female-owned firms.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurship, Gender Pay Gap, Discrimination, Linked employer-employee data
    JEL: J16 J24 J31 J71 L26 M13
    Date: 2024
  3. By: Mahajan, Parag (University of Delaware); Patki, Dhiren (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston); Stüber, Heiko (Hochschule der Bundesagentur für Arbeit (HdBA))
    Abstract: Workers who enter the labor market during recessions experience lasting earnings losses, but the role of non-pay amenities in exacerbating or counteracting these losses remains unknown. Using population-scale data from Germany, we find that labor market entry during recessions generates a 5 percent reduction in earnings cumulated over the first decade of experience. Implementing a revealed-preference estimator of employer quality that aggregates information from the universe of worker moves across employers, we find that 17 percent of recession-induced earnings losses are compensated by non-pay amenities. Purely pecuniary estimates can therefore overstate the welfare costs of labor market entry during recessions.
    Keywords: earnings inequality, recessions, non-pay amenities
    JEL: E32 J24 J31 J32
    Date: 2024–04
  4. By: Devereux, Kevin; Studnicka, Zuzanna
    Abstract: Minimum wages decrease employment in competitive markets, but can increase it in monopsonistic markets so long as they do not exceed the marginal product of labour. We find evidence of non-monotonicity both by market structure and minimum wage level. Minimum wage hikes initially increase hours worked for minimum wage workers (MWWs) in high-concentration local labour markets (LLMs), while increasing job loss likelihood for MWWs in low-concentration LLMs. Repeated hikes reverse initial hours gains, and may increase job loss. Non-MWWs show economically negligible responses throughout. Observing minimum wage status allows for both within- and across-market difference-in-difference designs, whose findings provide mutual support. We combine these into a triple-difference specification. Our results help to resolve the lack of consensus around the sign of the minimum wage's employment effects.
    Keywords: Minimum wage, Monopsony, Oligopsony, Local labour Markets
    JEL: J22 J23 J38 J42
    Date: 2024
  5. By: Moens, Eline (Ghent University); Lippens, Louis (Ghent University); D'hert, Liam (Ghent University); Baert, Stijn (Ghent University)
    Abstract: This letter adds to the literature on the importance of telework experience in employee evaluation by leveraging the telework experience accumulated during the COVID-19 crisis. We conducted a follow-up survey on the evaluation of telework exactly three years after our initial data collection in 2020. We find evidence of a learning curve regarding self-reported i) efficiency in performing tasks, ii) work-life balance, and iii) concentration during work, characterised by a more positive evaluation as telework experience increased. Migration background, feedback on the job, and compatibility of the job with telework moderate the effect of telework experience on the evaluation of telework over time.
    Keywords: telework, learning curve, time evolution
    JEL: J24 J28 J32 J81 I31
    Date: 2024–04
  6. By: Giuliano, Romina (University of Mons); Mahy, Benoît (University of Mons); Rycx, François (Free University of Brussels); Vermeylen, Guillaume (University of Mons)
    Abstract: This paper is the first to examine whether and how overeducation and overskilling, considered separately and in interaction, influence workers' job satisfaction at European level. It also investigates the moderating role of employment contracts. Our results, based on a unique pan-European database covering 28 countries in 2014, show that overeducation and overskilling reduce the probability of workers being satisfied with their jobs, but also that the drop in job satisfaction is almost double for genuinely overeducated workers (i.e. workers that are both overeducated and overskilled). These adverse effects on job satisfaction are found to be more pronounced among mismatched workers (whether overeducated, overskilled or both) on fixed-term rather than indefinite contracts.
    Keywords: job satisfaction, overeducation, overskilling, labour contracts, Europe
    JEL: C21 J24 J28 J41
    Date: 2024–04
  7. By: Fays, Valentine; Mahy, Benoît; Rycx, François
    Abstract: This article is the first to examine how 1st-generation migrants affect the employment of workers born in the host country according to their origin, distinguishing between natives and 2nd-generation migrants. To do so, we take advantage of access to a unique linked employer-employee dataset for the Belgian economy enabling us to test these relationships at a quite precise level of the labour market, i.e. the firm level. Fixed effect estimates, including a large number of covariates, suggest complementarity between the employment of 1st-generation migrants and workers born in Belgium (both natives and 2nd-generation migrants, respectively). Several sensitivity tests, considering different levels of aggregation, workers' levels of education, migrants' region of origin, workers' occupations, and sectors corroborate this conclusion.
    Keywords: 1st- and 2nd-generation migrants, Substitutability, Complementarity, Moderating factors
    JEL: J15 J24 J62
    Date: 2024
  8. By: Kaya, Ezgi
    Abstract: Using administrative data from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings linked to the 2011 Census of England and Wales, this paper explores the labour market performance of first-generation immigrants and compares it to that of UK-born employees. By focusing on various labour market outcomes and distinguishing immigrants based on their years of residence in the UK, the analysis reveals that more recent immigrants, on average, earn less, work longer hours, and are more likely to be employed in low-skilled occupations or temporary employment compared to observationally equivalent UK-born employees. However, the labour market performance of immigrants with ten or more years of residence in the UK is more comparable to that of their UK-born counterparts. These patterns are similar for males and females, but there is considerable heterogeneity in terms of ethnicity, country of birth, and reason for migration, as well as across the pay distribution.
    Keywords: immigration, linked administrative data, years of residence, labour market outcomes, regression, decomposition
    JEL: J24 J31 J61 J71
    Date: 2024
  9. By: Romina Giuliano; Benoit Mahy; François Rycx; Guillaume Vermeylen
    Abstract: This paper is the first to examine whether and how overeducation and overskilling, considered separately and in interaction, influence workers’ job satisfaction at European level. It also investigates the moderating role of employment contracts. Our results, based on a unique pan-European database covering 28 countries in 2014, show that overeducation and overskilling reduce the probability of workers being satisfied with their jobs, but also that the drop in job satisfaction is almost double for genuinely overeducated workers (i.e. workers that are both overeducated and overskilled). These adverse effects on job satisfaction are found to be more pronounced among mismatched workers (whether overeducated, overskilled or both) on fixed-term rather than indefinite contracts.
    Keywords: Job Satisfaction; Overeducation; Overskilling; Labour Contracts; Europe
    JEL: C21 J24 J28 J41
    Date: 2024–04–17
  10. By: Jaime Arellano-Bover; Fernando Saltiel
    Abstract: We present evidence that is consistent with large disparities across firms in their on-the-job learning opportunities, using administrative datasets from Brazil and Italy. We categorize firms into discrete “classes”—which our conceptual framework interprets as skill-learning classes—using a clustering methodology that groups together firms with similar distributions of unexplained wage growth. Mincerian returns to experience vary widely across experiences acquired in different firm classes. Four tests leveraging firm stayers and movers, occupation and industry switchers, hiring wages, and displaced workers point towards a portable and general human capital interpretation. Heterogeneous employment experiences explain an important share of wage variance by age 35, thus contributing to shape wage inequality. Firms’ observable attributes only mildly predict on-the-job learning opportunities.
    Keywords: human capital, firms, on-the-job learning, wage growth
    JEL: J24 J31
    Date: 2024
  11. By: Kalin, Salla (University of Helsinki); Kyyrä, Tomi (VATT, Helsinki); Matikka, Tuomas (VATT, Helsinki)
    Abstract: We use detailed, population-wide data from Finland to provide evidence of the impact of earnings disregard policies on part-time work during unemployment spells, and describe the longer-run trends in combining part-time work and social benefits. We find that part-time work while receiving unemployment benefits is strongly concentrated in the service and social and health care sectors, and that women participate in part-time work much more commonly than men (25% vs. 12% of benefit recipients). The share of part-time workers among benefit recipients increased sharply from 10% to 18% over a few years after the implementation of earnings disregards in unemployment benefits and housing allowances, which allowed individuals to earn up to 300 euros per month without reductions in their benefits. Using variation in the impact of the reforms on incentives between individuals eligible for different types of benefits, we estimate a 16–28% increase in participation in part-time work due to the implementation of earnings disregards. However, we find no evidence of economically significant positive or negative effects of increased participation in part-time work on transitions to full-time employment.
    Keywords: labor supply, social benefits, part-time work, earnings disregards
    JEL: H24 J21 J22
    Date: 2024–04
  12. By: Alexander Bick; Adam Blandin; Richard Rogerson
    Abstract: In 1979, the National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) began following a group of US residents born between 1957 and 1964. It has continued to re-interview these same individuals for more than four decades. Despite this long sampling period, attrition remains modest. This paper shows that after 40 years of data collection, the remaining NLYS79 sample continues to be broadly representative of their national cohorts with regard to key labor market outcomes. For NLSY79 age cohorts, life-cycle profiles of employment, hours worked, and earnings are comparable to those in the Current Population Survey. Moreover, average lifetime earnings over the age range 25 to 55 closely align with the same measure in Social Security Administration data. Our results suggest that the NLSY79 can continue to provide useful data for economists and other social scientists studying life-cycle and lifetime labor market outcomes, including earnings inequality.
    Keywords: lifetime earnings and hours worked; life-cycle earnings and hours worked
    JEL: E24 J22 J31
    Date: 2024–04–11
  13. By: Adam Feher (Institute for Labour Law and Industrial Relations in the European Union (IAAEU), Trier University)
    Abstract: The degree of access granted to employees to a firm’s critical asset is a pivotal organizational decision. This access can boost the employees’ productivity within the firm but also enables them to become competitors after leaving, leading to a holdup problem. Economic theory suggests that non-competition agreements (noncompetes) can mitigate this issue. This paper examines the optimal compensation package for an employee, considering access, wage, and noncompete agreements. I demonstrate that firms compensate lower ability agents primarily through access, coupled with the minimum wage and strictest noncompete agreements since access not only increases the employee’s utility but also the firm’s production. For higher ability agents, the maximum degree of access is provided, while the wage and stringency of the noncompete depends on the damage the employee causes with competing. For low damages, the firm offers a lax noncompete with lower wages. Conversely, high potential damage necessitates higher wages and a stricter noncompete. The study’s findings are consistent with observed patterns in CEO contracts.
    Keywords: Noncompete agreements, wage differential, Optimal contract
    JEL: J31 J33 J42
    Date: 2024–04
  14. By: Bortnikova, Kseniya; Havranek, Tomas; Irsova, Zuzana
    Abstract: Common wisdom suggests that beauty helps in the labor market. We show that two factors combine to explain away the mean beauty premium reported in the literature. First, correcting for publication bias reduces the premium by at least a third. Second, controlling for cognitive ability negates the premium for all occupations except sex workers, a point further underscored by the similarity of the beauty effect on earnings and productivity. The second factor implies a positive link, perhaps genetic, between beauty and intelligence. We find little evidence of substantial attenuation bias that could offset publication and omitted-variable biases. The empirical literature is inconsistent with discrimination based solely on tastes for beauty. To obtain these results we collect 1, 159 estimates of the effect of beauty on earnings or productivity reported in 67 studies and codify 33 aspects that reflect estimation context, including the potential intensity of attenuation bias. We employ recently developed techniques to account for publication bias and model uncertainty.
    Date: 2024–04–08
  15. By: Traverso, Silvio; Vatiero, Massimiliano; Zaninotto, Enrico
    Abstract: This study examines the association between investments in automation technologies and employment outcomes at the firm level, utilizing a panel dataset of about 10, 450 Italian firms. Focusing on the proliferation of non-standard, flexible labor contracts introduced by labor market reforms in the 2000s, we identify a positive relationship between automation investments and the adoption of flexible labor arrangements. With the aid of a conceptual framework, we interpret these findings as evidence of complementarity between flexible capital, represented by automation technologies, and flexible labor, manifested through non-standard contractual arrangements. This complementarity is crucial for enhancing operational flexibility, a critical determinant of firm performance in the modern market environment. However, while this adaptability is beneficial for firms, it raises concerns about job security, the potential for lower wages among workers, and the reduction of workers' incentives to invest in human capital. In terms of policy implications, our analysis underscores the need for measures that safeguard workers' interests without compromising the efficiency gains from automation.
    Keywords: Automation, Labor Contracts, Flexible Capital, Flexible Labor
    JEL: D20 J30 J41 K31
    Date: 2024
  16. By: Iñaki Aldasoro; Sebastian Doerr; Leonardo Gambacorta; Daniel Rees
    Abstract: This paper studies the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) on sectoral and aggregate employment, output and inflation in both the short and long run. We construct an index of industry exposure to AI to calibrate a macroeconomic multi-sector model. Building on studies that find significant increases in workers' output from AI, we model AI as a permanent increase in productivity that differs by sector. We find that AI significantly raises output, consumption and investment in the short and long run. The inflation response depends crucially on households' and firms' anticipation of the impact of AI. If they do not anticipate higher future productivity, AI adoption is initially disinflationary. Over time, general equilibrium forces lead to moderate inflation through demand effects. In contrast, when households and firms anticipate higher future productivity, inflation rises immediately. Inspecting individual sectors and performing counterfactual exercises we find that a sector's initial exposure to AI has little correlation with its long-term increase in output. However, output grows by twice as much for the same increase in aggregate productivity when AI affects sectors producing consumption rather than investment goods, thanks to second round effects through sectoral linkages. We discuss how public policy should foster AI adoption and implications for central banks.
    Keywords: artificial intelligence, generative AI, inflation, output, productivity, monetary policy
    JEL: E31 J24 O33 O40
    Date: 2024–04
  17. By: Arrighetti, Alessandro; Costa, Stefano; De Santis, Stefano; Landini, Fabio
    Abstract: The drivers of firm success in hyper-competitive markets have received growing attention by economic and management scholars. While earlier works paid particular attention to the analysis of firm strategic positioning in markets, most recent approaches emphasized the importance of internal capabilities. This paper combines these two views in a unified approach through a new conceptual construct, strategic dynamism, that we consider as “antecedent” of performance and “descendant” of capabilities. By using a large and unique survey carried out by the Italian Institute of Statistics we document that a) strategic dynamism explains performance differentials among firms, as captured by labor productivity growth and b) internal capabilities, measured as organizational and personnel capabilities, are important drivers of strategic dynamism. Managerial and policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: strategy, capabilities, performance, , organizational capability, personnel capability
    JEL: D21 D22 J24
    Date: 2024
  18. By: Naudé, Wim (RWTH Aachen University)
    Abstract: This paper presents tentative evidence from 68, 792 papers published between 1961 and 2020 that progress in the scholarly field of entrepreneurship is declining. It is found that the annual number of papers published in entrepreneurship has increased exponentially since the Second World War, growing on average by 17% annually since 1961; the average disruption score of papers have declined by a factor of 36 between the 1960s and the 2010s; and that the average team size per paper has increased from 1, 6 between 1960-1980 to 2, 4 between 2000 and 2020. Estimates from an ideas production function suggest that the field is getting fished out and that researchers are stepping on one another's toes. A Wald-test indicates that a structural break in the disruptiveness of entrepreneurship and business papers occurred around 1999. These results should not be taken as a negative evaluation: it may be a mark of the success of its scholars that the field is mature and degenerating. The remaining task facing the field of entrepreneurship may be how to confront its end.
    Keywords: entrepreneurship, business, science, disruption, innovation
    JEL: L26 O30 B40 J24
    Date: 2024–04
  19. By: Shangshang Li
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of political costs on implementing structural reforms in a macroeconomic political economy model with heterogeneous agents. I consider product market deregulation as a reform measure. In the model, deregulation creates potential winners and losers, and the potential losers endogenously decide to participate in political actions to impose political costs for the government. This political cost forces the government to implement an inefficiently high regulation level. A higher proportion of liquidity-constrained workers and a higher use of fixed-term labour contracts raise market regulation levels. In addition, high initial regulation levels are associated with a larger decrease in regulation levels in subsequent periods, consistent with the empirical literature. Compensation schemes, labour market reform, and strong government leadership in negotiation also help deregulation. Finally, I use the model to discuss why product markets are more deregulated in some European countries than in others.
    Keywords: structural reforms, product market deregulation, political economy, heterogeneous-agent model
    JEL: D72 E02 E60 P11
  20. By: Leif Danziger
    Abstract: This paper explores how a minimum wage affects a firm’s behavior with a competitive labor market and an uncertain export cost. The model provides several novel insights which are consistent with recent empirical evidence. Thus, a minimum wage increases an exporter’s foreign-market size and may cause a non-exporter to start exporting. The foreign-market size may increase so much that, although the home-market size decreases, the overall firm size increases.
    Keywords: minimum wage, exports, firm size
    JEL: J30
    Date: 2024
  21. By: Alessandro Cigno
    Abstract: Basu and Van (1998) show that a ban on child labour may be self-enforcing under the extreme assumption that, above the subsistence level, no amount of consumption can compensate parents for the disutility of child labour. We show that a partial ban may be self-enforcing also in a more general model where education is an alternative to work, and the disutility of child labour can be compensated by higher present consumption or future income, but a total ban may not. We also show that, in the absence of informational asymmetries, child labour can be eliminated and a First Best achieved if the ban is combined with a credit-backed policy including a subsidy to parents, and a tax on skilled adults. A First Best is out of reach of the use children make of their time when they are neither at school, nor working in the labour market is private information, because the policy maker then faces an incentive-compatibility constraint. The Second-Best policy reduces child labour, but not to zero.
    Keywords: child labour, education, fertility, credit, taxes, subsidies, uncertainty, asymmetric information
    JEL: H31 J22 O12
    Date: 2024
  22. By: Lukas Delgado-Prieto; Andrea Otero-Cortés; Andrés Calderón
    Abstract: Hard discount stores (HDS) have changed the dynamics of the traditional retail sector by selling a basket of products at very low prices. This business model has gained significant market share in many countries, but little is known about its impact on the labor market. To fill this gap in the literature, in this paper we study the impact of the entry of hard discounters on local labor markets in Colombia. Making use of the staggered geographic expansion of major discount chains throughout the country as part of our empirical strategy and using information from different sources, such as administrative records on social security and household survey data, we analyze the impact of these stores on labor formality and tax collection. Our results show that the arrival of HDS in a municipality increases local formal employment, especially in retail, manufacturing and agriculture. This suggests that there are significant spillover effects from retail to other industries, as most of the goods sold by these stores are locally produced. As for the informal sector, increased competition between formal and informal businesses has no statistical effect on informal employment. However, there seems to be a decline in labor income of informal retailers, suggesting that the margin of adjustment is not through lower employment but via lower earnings. **** RESUMEN: Las tiendas de descuento duro (HDS por sus siglas en inglés) han cambiado las dinámicas del sector minorista tradicional al vender una canasta de productos a muy bajo precio. Este modelo de negocio ha ganado una importante cuota del mercado en muchos países, pero poco se conoce sobre su impacto en el mercado laboral. Para llenar este vacío en la literatura, en este trabajo estudiamos el impacto de la entrada de las tiendas de descuento duro en los mercados laborales locales de Colombia. Haciendo uso de la expansión geográfica escalonada de las principales cadenas de descuento por todo el país como parte de nuestra estrategia empírica y usando información de distintas fuentes, como registros administrativos sobre seguridad social y la encuesta de hogares, analizamos el impacto de estas tiendas sobre la formalidad laboral y recaudo de impuestos. Nuestros resultados muestran que la llegada de las HDS a un municipio aumenta el empleo formal local, sobre todo en los sectores del comercio minorista, la industria manufacturera y la agricultura. Esto sugiere que existen importantes efectos de derrame del comercio minorista a otros sectores económicos, ya que la mayoría de los bienes que venden estas tiendas son productos locales. En cuanto al sector informal, el aumento de la competencia entre comerciantes formales e informales no tiene efectos estadísticos sobre el empleo informal. No obstante, parece haber una disminución en los ingresos laborales de los minoristas informales, lo que sugeriría que el margen de ajuste no se da a través de menor empleo sino vía menores ingresos.
    Keywords: Hard discount stores, competition, local labor markets, informality, tiendas de descuento duro, competencia, mercados laborales locales, informalidad
    JEL: E24 J46 O17
    Date: 2024–04
  23. By: Luca, Davide; Özgüzel, Cem; Wei, Zhiwu
    Abstract: The paper maps the spatially uneven diffusion of working from home across 30 European countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. We summarise the determinants of remote working and show that its uptake was lower than in the US, and substantially uneven across/within countries, with most remote jobs concentrated in cities and capital regions. We then apply a variance decomposition procedure to investigate whether the uneven distribution of remote jobs can be attributed to individual or territorial factors. Results underscore the importance of composition effects as, compared to intermediate-density and rural areas, cities hosted more workers in occupations/sectors more amenable to working remotely. Overall, findings highlight how working from home is unlikely to substantially alter the current patterns of spatial inequality between core urban areas and peripheral rural regions.
    Keywords: work from home; Europe; spatial inequality; Covid-19; coronavirus; telework; remote work
    JEL: I18 J20 O52 P25
    Date: 2024–04–01
  24. By: Ben Posmanick (St Bonaventure University); Alex Obie (St Bonaventure University); Bobby Chung (USF)
    Abstract: We study the substitution between licensed and unlicensed workers and the quality effect of employing licensed professionals on firms. Leveraging a quasi-licensure mandate of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) on audit committees of publicly-traded firms, this paper studies the employment spillover and quality effects of licensing at the firm level. Assembling multiple data sources, we identify independent directors with relevant licenses and the quality of accounting reports for more than 5, 200 publicly-traded firms. Exploiting plausibly exogenous year-by-firm variation in fixed-effect models, the licensure mandate of SOX significantly increases the appointment of certified public accountants (CPAs) at the expense of other types of professionals at the board level. We find a precise zero effect for the presence of CPAs on audit committees on the need to refile financial statements.
    Keywords: Occupational Licensing, Employment Spillover, Quality, Sarbanes-Oxley
    JEL: J44 G38 K10
    Date: 2024–04
  25. By: Stijn Broecke
    Abstract: While the second half of the 20th century was characterised by a growing integration of the global economy, in recent years there have been growing calls for protectionism and reshoring. At the same time, COVID-19 resulted in higher levels of remote working, which showed that many jobs could be done from anywhere and could, in theory, be offshored. The future of offshoring and reshoring is therefore highly uncertain. This document summarises some of the key issues and trends with regards to offshoring and reshoring. It then sets out a research agenda which would result in a better understanding the future of offshoring and reshoring and their impact on domestic labour markets, which would help policy makers in OECD countries plan for the changes that lie ahead.
    Keywords: Jobs, Offshoring, Reshoring
    JEL: J61 J68 J2
    Date: 2024–04–27
  26. By: Leland D. Crane; Emily Green; Molly Harnish; Will McClennan; Paul E. Soto; Betsy Vrankovich; Jacob Williams
    Abstract: We explore a new source of data on layoffs: timely 8-K filings with the Securities and and Exchange Commission. We develop measures of both the number of reported layoff events and the number of affected workers. These series are highly correlated with the business cycle and other layoff indicators. Linking firm-level reported layoff events with WARN notices suggests that 8-K filings are sometimes available before WARN notices, and preliminary regression results suggest our layoff series are useful for forecasting. We also document the industry composition of the data and specific areas where the industry shares diverge.
    Keywords: Forecasting; Labor markets; Large language models; Alternative data; Natural language processing; Layoffs
    JEL: E24 G28 J21 M51 C81
    Date: 2024–04–11
  27. By: Menz, Jan-Oliver
    Abstract: We use a simple macroeconomic model proposed by Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) to investigate the reasons for the recent sharp rise in inflation. Applied to Germany and the euro area, the model suggests that the surge in inflation has mainly been caused by commodity price shocks and supply bottlenecks, rather than shortages in the labour market. Inflation expectations were found to be well-anchored and evidence for a wage-price spiral is scarce. The model predicts a gradual decline in future inflation rates. However, this prediction is based on the assumption that there will be no commodity price shocks and that the labour market will cool down.
    Keywords: Inflation, wages, inflation expectations, Phillips curve
    JEL: E3 J3 D84 C33
    Date: 2024

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.