nep-lma New Economics Papers
on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages
Issue of 2024‒03‒04
twenty-two papers chosen by
Joseph Marchand, University of Alberta

  1. Will robot replace workers? Assessing the impact of robots on employment and wages with meta-analysis By Dario Guarascio; Alessandro Piccirillo; Jelena Reljic
  2. This study analyses the impact of an Alternative Work Arrangement (AWA) called "voucher" on earnings of atypical workers and on their alternative income sources using Italian administrative data. Specifically, we investigate whether this form of very flexible work substitutes income from more standard labor contracts and welfare transfers related to employment insurance (sick and parental leave and unemployment benefits). We estimate cross-income elasticities using fixed effects and diff-in-diff specifications that correct for sample selection of individuals in the labor market. Results show that vouchers increase overall labor income, but they also substitute earnings derived from other labor contracts. We do not find relevant associations between vouchers and welfare transfers. The positive effect of vouchers on total income is smaller in specifications that correct for sample selection bias, and the substitution effect with other labor income sources is substantially larger. Overall, our findings show that AWAs tend to substitute standard employment, with small positive net effects on earnings, which are larger for intensive users of vouchers, and in geographic regions with a more sizable informal sector. By Fanfani Bernardo; Passerini Filippo
  3. Low-Wage Jobs, Foreign-Born Workers, and Firm Performance By Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes; Esther Arenas-Arroyo; Parag Mahajan; Bernhard Schmidpeter
  4. The Spirit of Capitalism, Entrepreneurship, and Talent Allocation By Yang Ming; Heng-fu Zou
  5. Measuring labor share for Poland – does heterogeneity of labor compensation matter? By Michał Gradzewicz; Janusz Jabłonowski; Michał Sasiela; Zbigniew Żółkiewski
  6. Multigenerational Effects of Smallpox Vaccination By Lazuka, Volha; Jensen, Peter S.
  7. Decreasing Differences in Expert Advice By Elias Bouacida; Renaud Foucart; Maya Jalloul
  8. Effects of Childhood Cognitive and Behavioral Disabilities on Adult Economic Outcomes By Hope Corman; Kelly Noonan; Nancy Reichman
  9. Time-varying Agglomeration Economies and Aggregate Wage Growth By Clémence Berson; Pierre-Philippe Combes; Laurent Gobillon; Aurélie Sotura
  10. Nursing before and after COVID-19: Outflows, Inflows and Self-Employment By Kalb, Guyonne; Meekes, Jordy
  11. Technological change and returns to training By Klauser, Roman; Tamm, Marcus
  12. The impact of COVID-19 on health workers: A health labor market perspective to improve response By Bustamante Izquierdo, Juana Paola; Cometto, Giorgio; Diallo, Khassoum; Zurn, Pascal; Campbell, Jim
  13. Technological progress and the dynamics of self-employment: Worker-level evidence for Europe By Bachmann, Ronald; Gonschor, Myrielle; Milasi, Santo; Mitra, Alessio
  14. The Anatomy of Concentration: New Evidence From a Unified Framework By Kenneth R. Ahern; Lei Kong; Xinyan Yan
  15. Computer Science for All? The Impact of High School Computer Science Courses on College Majors and Earnings By Liu, Jing; Conrad, Cameron; Blazar, David
  16. External shocks and labor market reforms in autocracies and democracies: evidence from oil price windfalls By Markus Brueckner; Gabriele Ciminelli; Norman Loayza
  17. The need for an industrial policy for long-term growth By Anyfantaki, Sofia; Caloghirou, Yannis; Dellis, Konstantinos; Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini; Petroulakis, Filippos
  18. Declining Responsiveness at the Establishment Level: Sources and Productivity Implications By Russell W. Cooper; John Haltiwanger; Jonathan L. Willis
  19. Artificial Intelligence and the Discovery of New Ideas: Is an Economic Growth Explosion Imminent? By Almeida, Derick; Naudé, Wim; Sequeira, Tiago Neves
  20. Deadlines Versus Continuous Incentives: Evidence from the Patent Office By Michael D. Frakes; Melissa F. Wasserman
  21. The Truth-Telling of Truth-Seekers: Evidence from Online Experiments with Scientists By Moritz A. Drupp; Menusch Khadjavi; Rudi Voss
  22. Once a trader, always a trader: The role of traders in fund management By Cici, Gjergji; Schuster, Philipp; Weishaupt, Franziska

  1. By: Dario Guarascio; Alessandro Piccirillo; Jelena Reljic
    Abstract: This study conducts a meta-analysis to assess the effects of robotization on employment and wages, compiling data from 33 studies with 644 estimates on employment and a subset of 19 studies with 195 estimates on wages. We identify a publication bias towards negative outcomes, especially concerning wages. After correcting for this bias, the actual impact appears minimal. Thus, concerns about the disruptive effects of robots on employment and the risk of widespread technological unemployment may be exaggerated or not yet empirically supported. While this does not preclude that robots will be capable of gaining greater disruptive potential in the future or that they are not already disruptive in specific contexts, the evidence to date suggests their aggregate effect is negligible.
    Keywords: robots; employment; wages; meta-analysis; publication bias
    JEL: J21 J23 J24 J31 O33
    Date: 2024–02
  2. By: Fanfani Bernardo (Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics, University of Turin, Italy;); Passerini Filippo (University of Bologna and LABORatorio R. Revelli, Italy;)
    Keywords: Alternative Work Arrangements, Labor Supply, Cross-income Elasticity, Sample Selection, Difference-in-differences, Event-study.
    JEL: J24 J22 D12 C13 C21
    Date: 2024–02
  3. By: Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes; Esther Arenas-Arroyo; Parag Mahajan; Bernhard Schmidpeter
    Abstract: We examine how migrant workers impact firm performance using administrative data from the United States. Exploiting an unexpected change in firms’ likelihood of securing low-wage workers through the H-2B visa program, we find limited crowd-out of other forms of employment and no impact on average pay at the firm. Yet, access to H-2B workers raises firms’ annual revenues and survival likelihood. Our results are consistent with the notion that guest worker programs can help address labor shortages without inflicting large losses on incumbent workers.
    Keywords: guest workers, migrants, employment, firm dynamics, H-2B visa
    JEL: J23 F22 J61
    Date: 2024–01
  4. By: Yang Ming (Central University of Finance and Economics); Heng-fu Zou (Central University of Finance and Economics)
    Abstract: This paper develops a theoretical model to explore the impact of the spirit of capitalism (SOC) on entrepreneurship and the allocative efficiency of talent. In the presence of financial frictions, both individual abilities and wealth play crucial roles in shaping occupational choices. Consequently, individuals with a stronger SOC are more inclined towards entrepreneurship. However, this heightened entrepreneurial activity leads to allocative inefficiencies in talent allocation, as some wealthy but less skilled individuals pursue entrepreneurial ventures. Mitigating financial frictions serves to enhance overall productivity by rectifying this inefficiency, though its influence on entrepreneurship remains uncertain. Conversely, increasing the fraction of individuals with higher SOC yields non-monotonic effects on both aggregate productivity and entrepreneurship. The calibrated model introduces a novel perspective on the decline in entrepreneurship witnessed in the U.S. and other advanced economies over recent decades.
    Keywords: spirit of capitalism, entrepreneurship, talent allocation, occupational choice
    JEL: J24 O15 O16
    Date: 2024–01–20
  5. By: Michał Gradzewicz (Narodowy Bank Polski); Janusz Jabłonowski (Narodowy Bank Polski); Michał Sasiela (Narodowy Bank Polski); Zbigniew Żółkiewski (Narodowy Bank Polski)
    Abstract: Our study presents a comparison of the results of several methods of including mixed income in the measurement of the labor share based for Poland in the period 2000-2021. We account for the heterogeneity of labor input in the measurement of labor share. Moreover, we introduce an original method, accounting for heterogeneity of labor tax rates between employed and self-employed. All the methods considered are consistent with the national accounts. We apply the labor share measurement methods for Poland, an emerging economy with a particularity high prevalence of self-employment. We show that the corrections of the payroll labor share are substantial and range from 8 to 13 pp. None of the methods applied show a remarkable downward trend in labor share, frequently found in the advanced countries. Instead, labor share in Poland declines clearly up to 2004, but then rises by about 2-5 pp. by the end of 2021. There are diverse patterns on a sectoral level - downward tendencies of labor share in manufacturing and other industries, and increasing tendencies in services. A shift-share analysis shows that the overall change of labor share is mainly due to within industry changes. A positive contribution to labor share of a rising importance of services is neutralized by a negative reallocation effect.
    Keywords: labor share, Poland, wage heterogeneity, self-employment, labor tax, shift share
    JEL: D24 D33 E01 E25 J31 O40
    Date: 2024
  6. By: Lazuka, Volha (Lund University); Jensen, Peter S. (Linnaeus University)
    Abstract: Can the effect of a positive health shock, such as childhood vaccination, transmit across three generations? To answer this question, we estimate the impact of smallpox vaccination in childhood on the longevity and occupational achievements of three generations using unique individual-level data from Sweden, covering the last 250 years. We apply different estimation strategies based on linear and non-linear probability models. To address endogeneity concerns, we construct a shift-share instrumental variable, utilizing the fact that vaccination in Sweden was administered by the low-skilled clergy, who otherwise did not perform public health duties. Overall, our results show that a positive shock to the health of the first generation, such as smallpox vaccination, operating through various channels, enhances both health and socio-economic outcomes for at least two more generations.
    Keywords: intergenerational transmission of health, smallpox vaccination, shift-share instrumental-variables
    JEL: I18 J24 J62
    Date: 2024–01
  7. By: Elias Bouacida; Renaud Foucart; Maya Jalloul
    Abstract: We study the impact of external advice on the relative performance of chess players. We asked players in chess tournaments to evaluate positions in past games and allowed them to revise their evaluation following advice from a high or a low ability player. While our data confirms the theoretical prediction that high-quality advice has the potential to act as a “great equalizer, †reducing the difference between high and low ability players, this is not what happens in practice. This is in part because our subjects ignore too much of the advice they receive, but also because low ability players pay – either due to overconfidence or intrinsic preference – a higher premium than high ability ones by following their initial idea instead of high-quality advice.
    Keywords: decreasing differences, expert, advice, chess, control
    JEL: C78 C91 C93 D91 J24 O33
    Date: 2024
  8. By: Hope Corman; Kelly Noonan; Nancy Reichman
    Abstract: Developmental disabilities are not rare among U.S. children and rates have been increasing in recent decades. The increases have been driven by cognitive and behavioral disorders. While some studies have investigated the effects of specific childhood conditions, particularly ADHD, on adult economic outcomes, none has considered the overall effects of cognitive and behavioral disabilities. We address this key gap by rigorously estimating effects of cognitive and behavioral impairments in childhood, which account for the bulk and increasing share of child disability cases in the U.S., on a set of salient adult economic outcomes. Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 79 Child Supplement, we estimate the effects of low cognitive test scores and high behavior problem scores in childhood on receipt of disability benefits, educational attainment, employment, wages, and access to transportation and credit in adulthood, using household fixed effects models to control for potentially confounding factors that are unobserved. We find significant effects in the expected direction for both cognitive and behavioral childhood disabilities on all outcomes. The findings have important implications for well-being over the life course for a non-trivial share of the U.S. population and their families, government expenditures, and public policy.
    JEL: I10 I14 I24 I30 J14 J20 J24
    Date: 2024–02
  9. By: Clémence Berson; Pierre-Philippe Combes; Laurent Gobillon; Aurélie Sotura
    Abstract: We quantify the effects of city agglomeration economies on labour earnings in France over a forty-year period using individual wage panel data. We first delineate cities at every date to consider changes in their footprint over time. We then estimate a daily wage specification that includes time-varying city effects while controlling for observed and unobserved individual heterogeneity. We regress these city effects on agglomeration variables every year, and assess how changes in values and returns to agglomeration variables affect the evolution of daily wages. We find a negligible role for changes in values, but an important role for changes in returns. There is also significant heterogeneity across cities, even among large cities of similar sizes. We propose a theoretical model in which agglomeration economies affect both population and city area. A calibration exercise shows that changes in returns to agglomeration economies are not enough to generate variations in population and city area influencing significantly aggregate labour earnings. This result is consistent with the negligible role of changes in values found in our empirical investigation.
    Keywords: Agglomeration Economies, Growth, Wages
    JEL: R23 J31 J6
    Date: 2024
  10. By: Kalb, Guyonne (University of Melbourne); Meekes, Jordy (Leiden University)
    Abstract: We study nurses' labour dynamics in light of continuing nurse shortages and the COVID-19 pandemic. Using Dutch monthly administrative microdata, all nursing-qualified persons observed in January 2016 and/or in January 2020 are compared and followed for one year before and three years after both baseline months. Compared to the 2016 Cohort, women and men in the 2020 Cohort who were employed in the healthcare sector at baseline were 0.3 and 1 percentage point more likely to have left employment; and, conditional on still being employed, 0.8 and 1.2 percentage points more likely to have left healthcare employment after three years. The 2020 Cohort women and men were also 1 and 1.7 percentage points more likely to transition from salaried employment to self-employment, and they reduced working hours by 0.6% and 1.5% more by December 2022. Except during COVID outbreaks, there is no higher inflow into healthcare employment by nursing-qualified women and men who were not employed in healthcare at baseline. Finally, other healthcare professionals fared better, with similar healthcare sector retention rates in 2019-2022 compared with 2015-2018. Overall, the pandemic accelerated nurse shortages through reduced retention and increased self-employment, and its impact is still felt at the end of 2022.
    Keywords: nurses, labour dynamics, self-employment, healthcare, gender, COVID-19
    JEL: I11 J16 J20 J44 J62
    Date: 2024–01
  11. By: Klauser, Roman; Tamm, Marcus
    Abstract: Do returns to training differ if training is accompanied by technological innovations at the workplace? We analyze this potential heterogeneity of returns based on panel data from Germany that provide a unique measure for individuals' adoption of new technology at the workplace. In the preferred analysis we run fixed effects estimations. As a robustness test we also allow for individual time trends. The findings indicate positive wage effects and more job stability for training participants in general but no effects on wages and job mobility for new technology adoption. Furthermore, the combined occurrence of new technology adoption and of training participation does not make individuals better off in terms of wages or job stability compared with individuals experiencing neither training nor new technology adoption.
    Abstract: Unterscheiden sich Weiterbildungserträge, wenn Weiterbildung von technologischen Innovationen am Arbeitsplatz begleitet wird? Wir analysieren die potenzielle Heterogenität der Erträge anhand von Paneldaten aus Deutschland, die ein einzigartiges, individuelles Maß für die Adoption neuer Technologien am Arbeitsplatz bieten. In unserer Hauptanalyse verwenden wir sogenannte Fixed-Effects-Regressionen, die in Robustheitstests durch individuelle "time trends" ergänzt werden. Die Ergebnisse zeigen positive Lohneffekte und eine größere Arbeitsplatzstabilität für Personen, die an Weiterbildungsmaßnahmen teilgenommen haben, aber keine dieser Effekte für Personen, die über eine neue Technologien am Arbeitsplatz berichten. Darüber hinaus führt das gemeinsame Auftreten von neuen Technologien und Weiterbildungsteilnahme nicht dazu, dass Personen in Bezug auf Löhne oder Arbeitsplatzstabilität besser abschneiden als Personen, die weder Weiterbildung noch die Einführung neuer Technologien erfahren.
    Keywords: Returns to education, training, technology
    JEL: I26 J24 J62 M53 O33
    Date: 2023
  12. By: Bustamante Izquierdo, Juana Paola; Cometto, Giorgio; Diallo, Khassoum; Zurn, Pascal; Campbell, Jim
    Abstract: This paper uses a health labor market lens to examine the impact of COVID-19 on health workers, as well as relevant policy levers. It compiles a collection of literature using a standardized measurement framework to determine the impact of COVID-19 on health workers. It examines the relevant issues under the lens of a health labor market. In particular, the paper interprets this information and knowledge by focusing on the supply, demand, and mismatches in a health labor market. Within this framework, it presents relevant issues on COVID-19 and its impact on health workers, as well as the ensuing policy response. Finally, the chapter presents key lessons learned from COVID-19 to inform future responses related to ensuring a sufficient workforce to tackle them.
    Keywords: labour market, employment, health, health workforce, supply, demand
    JEL: I11 I14 I18 J08 J21 J23 J49
    Date: 2024
  13. By: Bachmann, Ronald; Gonschor, Myrielle; Milasi, Santo; Mitra, Alessio
    Abstract: We examine how technology is associated with self-employment dynamics using worker-level data from 31 European countries. We find that while employees exposed to labour-augmenting technologies are more likely to move from paid-employment to solo self-employment and viceversa, employees exposed to labour-saving technologies are less likely to become self-employed. We identify important differences with respect to workers' socio-demographic characteristics. The results suggest that while labour-augmenting technologies promote workers' mobility and reduce unemployment risks for high-skilled workers, they have the opposite effect for low-skilled workers. Furthermore, labour-saving technologies worsen labour market outcomes particularlyfor low-skilled and routine workers.
    Abstract: Unter Verwendung von Daten auf Arbeitnehmerebene aus 31 europäischen Ländern untersuchen wir, wie Technologie mit Arbeitsmarktübergängen in die Selbständigkeit zusammenhängt. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Arbeitnehmer, die in ihrer Arbeit mit arbeitsunterstützenden Technologien konfrontiert sind, eher von abhängiger Beschäftigung in die Soloselbstständigkeit wechseln und umgekehrt, während Arbeitnehmer, die mit arbeitssparenden Technologien konfrontiert sind, seltener eine selbstständige Tätigkeit aufnehmen. Wir finden wichtige Unterschiede in den soziodemographischen Merkmalen der Arbeitnehmer. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass arbeitsunterstützende Technologien zwar die Mobilität von Arbeitnehmern fördern und das Arbeitslosigkeitsrisiko von hoch qualifizierten Arbeitnehmern verringern, dass sie aber bei gering qualifizierten Arbeitnehmern den gegenteiligen Effekt haben. Darüber hinaus verschlechtern arbeitssparende Technologien die Arbeitsmarktergebnisse, insbesondere für Geringqualifizierte und Routinearbeiter.
    Keywords: Solo self-employment, occupations, tasks, technology, Europe
    JEL: J62 J63 J31
    Date: 2023
  14. By: Kenneth R. Ahern; Lei Kong; Xinyan Yan
    Abstract: Concentration is a single summary statistic driven by two opposing forces: the number of firms in a market and the evenness of their market shares. This paper introduces a generalized measure of concentration that allows researchers to vary the relative importance of each force. Using the generalized measure, we show that the widely-cited evidence of increasing industrial employment concentration is driven by the Herfindahl Index's over-weighting of evenness and under-weighting of firm counts. We propose an alternative, equally-weighted measure that has an equivalent economic meaning as the Herfindahl Index, but possesses superior statistical attributes in typical firm size distributions. Using this balanced measure, we find that employment concentration decreased from 1990 to 2020. Finally, decomposing aggregate diversity into meaningful geographic and industry subdivisions reveals that concentration within regional markets has fallen, while concentration between markets has risen.
    JEL: C46 D40 L11
    Date: 2024–01
  15. By: Liu, Jing (University of Texas at Austin); Conrad, Cameron (University of Maryland); Blazar, David (University of Maryland)
    Abstract: This study provides the first causal analysis of the impact of expanding Computer Science (CS) education in U.S. K-12 schools on students' choice of college major and early career outcomes. Utilizing rich longitudinal data from Maryland, we exploit variation from the staggered rollout of CS course offerings across high schools. Our findings suggest that taking a CS course increases students' likelihood of declaring a CS major by 10 percentage points and receiving a CS BA degree by 5 percentage points. Additionally, access to CS coursework raises students' likelihood of being employed and early career earnings. Notably, students who are female, low socioeconomic status, or Black experience larger benefits in terms of CS degree attainment and earnings. However, the lower take-up rates of these groups in CS courses highlight a pressing need for targeted efforts to enhance their participation as policymakers continue to expand CS curricula in K-12 education.
    Keywords: computer science, STEM, high school curricula, college major choice, earnings
    JEL: I23 J24 H52
    Date: 2024–01
  16. By: Markus Brueckner; Gabriele Ciminelli; Norman Loayza
    Abstract: We examine the relationship between oil price windfalls and labor market regulation empirically through panel regressions in a sample of 83 countries spanning the 1970-2014 period. We find that oil price windfall gains lead to a deregulation of the labor market in autocracies but have no effects in democracies. Windfall losses instead cause a substantial deregulation in democracies but have no effects in autocracies. We then consider possible transmission channels. Democracies appear to redistribute the rents stemming from a positive windfall by increasing government expenditures. Rent extraction and economic efficiency considerations are both plausible drivers of the deregulation following windfall gains in autocracies, as expenditures are not raised, while GDP and employment gradually increase after positive windfalls. The deregulation following windfall losses in democracies is instead consistent with the crisis-induced-reform hypothesis, as the windfall loss induce a sharp deterioration of the current account and budget balances.
    Keywords: oil price; windfalls; labor market; deregulation; political institutions
    JEL: F16 J41 O13 P11 P16 Q02
    Date: 2024–02
  17. By: Anyfantaki, Sofia; Caloghirou, Yannis; Dellis, Konstantinos; Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini; Petroulakis, Filippos
    Abstract: We document and analyse key deficiencies of the Greek economy, with the view to providing new insights and articulate policy proposals. We consider issues which are the purview of both horizontal policies, raising productivity across sectors, and vertical policies, which allow for realignment of activity. With respect to the first dimension, we focus on two specific problem-areas of Greek industry, with high importance: skills and management practices. We also use information from a novel survey on entrepreneurship, technological developments, and regulatory change and examine structural characteristics of innovation and technology adoption of Greek firms, with a focus on the role of size, ownership structure, and global value chain participation. With respect to the second dimension, we provide an overview of Greece’s export performance and analyse its sectoral comparative advantage. In an empirical study we also focus on the determinants of export sophistication. Overall, the collection of our empirical findings provides ample fodder for concrete policy proposals to increase productivity in Greek manufacturing.
    Keywords: skills; management; innovation; knowledge; export sophistication
    JEL: D20 F10 J24 J50 L22 O32
    Date: 2024–02–01
  18. By: Russell W. Cooper; John Haltiwanger; Jonathan L. Willis
    Abstract: This paper studies competing sources of declining dynamism. Evidence shows that an important component of this decline is accounted for by the reduction in the response of employment to shocks in US establishments. Using a plant-level dynamic optimization problem as a framework for analysis, four potential reasons for this decline are studied: (i) a change in exogenous processes for profits, (ii) an increase in impatience, (iii) increased market power, and (iv) increasing adjustment costs. We identify and quantity the contribution of each of these factors building on a simulated method of moments estimation of our structural model. Our results indicate that the reduction in responsiveness largely reflects increased costs of employment adjustment. Changes in market power, as captured by changes in the curvature of the revenue function, play a minimal role. But, in the presence of rising adjustment costs, measured sales-weighted markups using the recently popular indirect production approach rise substantially, along with rising dispersion and skewness of such measured markups.
    Keywords: declining dynamism; adjustment costs; employment
    JEL: E24 E32 J23
    Date: 2024–02–14
  19. By: Almeida, Derick (University of Coimbra); Naudé, Wim (RWTH Aachen University); Sequeira, Tiago Neves (University of Coimbra)
    Abstract: Theory predicts that global economic growth will stagnate and even come to an end due to slower and eventually negative growth in population. It has been claimed, however, that Artificial Intelligence (AI) may counter this and even cause an economic growth explosion. In this paper, we critically analyse this claim. We clarify how AI affects the ideas production function (IPF) and propose three models relating innovation, AI and population: AI as a research-augmenting technology; AI as researcher scale enhancing technology; and AI as a facilitator of innovation. We show, performing model simulations calibrated on USA data, that AI on its own may not be sufficient to accelerate the growth rate of ideas production indefinitely. Overall, our simulations suggests that an economic growth explosion would only be possible under very specific and perhaps unlikely combinations of parameter values. Hence we conclude that it is not imminent.
    Keywords: automation, artificial intelligence, economic growth, innovation, ideas production function
    JEL: O31 O33 O40 J11 J24
    Date: 2024–01
  20. By: Michael D. Frakes; Melissa F. Wasserman
    Abstract: A quota system with an associated deadline may retain the possibility of worker procrastination and related deadline behaviors. A performance appraisal system based on continuous temporal incentives, on the other hand, has the potential to alleviate deadline effects but may lose some of the quality-related benefits associated with the flexibility of a quota/deadline system. We explore these tradeoffs by observing patent examiner behavior and examination quality outcomes surrounding a 2011 reform at the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office that built on its bi-weekly quota system by adding a set of bonuses tied to daily examination-pendency measures. We find a substantial reduction in deadline effects and near complete temporal smoothing in examiner behavior in connection with the reform, leading to large reductions in average examination pendency while resulting in no corresponding reductions in the accuracy of examinations.
    JEL: D03 J33 K0 O34
    Date: 2024–01
  21. By: Moritz A. Drupp; Menusch Khadjavi; Rudi Voss
    Abstract: Academic honesty is crucial for scientific advancement, yet replication crises and misconduct scandals are omnipresent. We provide evidence on scientists’ truth-telling from two incentivized coin-tossing experiments with more than 1, 300 scientists. Experiment I, with predominantly European and North-American scientists, shows that fewer scientists over-report winning tosses when their professional identity is salient. The global Experiment II yields heterogeneous effects. We replicate Experiment I’s effect for North-American scientists, but find the opposite for Southern European and East-Asian scientists. Over-reporting correlates with publication metrics and country-level measures of academic and field-experimental dishonesty, suggesting that country-level honesty norms also guide truth-telling by scientists.
    Keywords: truth-telling, lying, identity, science, cross-country, experiment
    JEL: C93 D82 K42 J45
    Date: 2024
  22. By: Cici, Gjergji; Schuster, Philipp; Weishaupt, Franziska
    Abstract: Mutual fund families are increasingly assigning traders to manage corporate bond mutual funds. Using this setting to study the role of traders in investment management, we document that trader managers identify and exploit short-term trading opportunities at lower transaction costs. These skills are particularly valuable during periods of market stress. Moreover, trader managers exhibit sophisticated risk management behavior: They reduce credit risk during periods of market stress and take more maturity risk during periods of large interest rate fluctuations, while holding portfolios with greater convexity. The combination of these skills produces relative outperformance during periods of large interest rate fluctuations.
    Keywords: traders, fund managers, transaction costs, corporate bonds
    JEL: G11 G23 D83 J24
    Date: 2024

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