nep-lma New Economics Papers
on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages
Issue of 2022‒08‒22
twenty papers chosen by
Joseph Marchand
University of Alberta

  1. Job Satisfaction, Structure of Working Environment and Firm Size By Tansel, Aysit
  2. Worker Mobility and Productivity Spillovers By Ohlsbom, Roope
  3. Spillover Effects of Old-Age Pension across Generations: Family Labor Supply and Child Outcomes By Katja Maria Kaufmann; Yasemin Özdemir; Han Ye
  4. The Great Canadian Recovery: The Impact of COVID-19 on Canada's Labour Market By Jones, Stephen R. G.; Lange, Fabian; Riddell, W. Craig; Warman, Casey
  5. The lock-in effect of marriage: Work incentives after saying, “Yes, I do.†By Michael Christl; Silvia De Poli; Viginta Ivaskaite-Tamosiune
  6. Organisational Gender Pay Gaps in the UK: What Happened Post-transparency? By Jones, Melanie K.; Kaya, Ezgi
  7. What has been the Impact of COVID-19 on Self-employment Relative to Paid Employment in the UK By Alexander Bowyer; Richard Dorsett
  8. Heterogeneity and the Effects of Aggregation on Wage Growth By Robert W. Rich; Joseph Tracy
  9. Labor Market Tightness during WWI and the Postwar Recession of 1920-1921 By Haelim Anderson; Jin-Wook Chang
  10. The Kaldor-Verdoorn Law’s at the Age of Robots and AI. By Andrea Borsato; Andre Lorentz
  11. COVID-19 Private Pension Withdrawals and Unemployment Tenures By Sainsbury, Tristram; Breunig, Robert; Watson, Timothy
  12. How do firms respond to demand and supply shocks? By Michał Gradzewicz
  13. Combining Survey and Geospatial Data Can Significantly Improve Gender-Disaggregated Estimates of Labor Market Outcomes By Merfeld, Joshua D.; Newhouse, David; Weber, Michael; Lahiri, Partha
  14. Job polarisation and household borrowing By Cantarella, Michele; Kavonius, Ilja Kristian
  15. Spatially Uneven Pace of Deindustrialization Within a Country By Kozo Kiyota
  16. Quota vs Quality? Long-Term Gains from an Unusual Gender Quota By Ursina Schaede; Ville Mankki
  17. Potential spatial impacts of the war in Ukraine: A case study from Italy By OECD
  18. Selection in the Presence of Implicit Bias: The Advantage of Intersectional Constraints By Anay Mehrota; Bary S. R. Pradelski; Nisheeth K. Vishnoi
  19. Does ethnic heterogeneity decrease workers' effort in the presence of income redistribution? An experimental analysis By Schütt, Christoph; Pipke, David; Detlefsen, Lena; Grimalda, Gianluca
  20. Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on India’s Rural Youth : Evidence from a Panel Survey and an Experiment By Chakravorty, Bhaskar; Bhatiya, Apurav Yash; Imbert, Clement; Lohnert, Maximilian; Panda, Poonam; Rathelot, Roland

  1. By: Tansel, Aysit (Middle East Technical University)
    Abstract: Employees' wellbeing is important to the firms. Analysis of job satisfaction may give insight into various aspect of labor market behavior, such as worker productivity, absenteeism and job turn over. Little empirical work has been done on the relationship between structure of working environment and job satisfaction. This paper investigates the relationship between working environment, firm size and worker job satisfaction. We use a unique data of 28,240 British employees, Workplace Employee Relations Survey. In this data set the employee questionnaire is matched with the employer questionnaire. Four measures of job satisfaction considered are satisfaction with influence over job, satisfaction with amount of pay, satisfaction with sense of achievement and satisfaction with respect from supervisors. They are all negatively related to the firm size implying lower levels of job satisfaction in larger firms. The firm size in return is negatively related to the degree of flexibility in the working environment. The small firms have more flexible work environments. This is the first study that explore the effect of work amenities. We further find that, contrary to the previous results lower levels of job satisfaction in larger firms can not necessarily be attributed to the inflexibility in their structure of working environment.
    Keywords: job satisfactions, firm size, working environment, linked employer-employee data, Britain
    JEL: J21 J28 J29 J81
    Date: 2022–06
  2. By: Ohlsbom, Roope
    Abstract: Abstract Using linked employer-employee data from Finland, we examine the mobility of workers between establishments as a source of productivity-affecting knowledge spillovers. We find evidence that hiring workers from more productive establishments leads to higher productivity in the following year. For an average establishment, this productivity increase amounts to 0.45 percent in our most conservative estimate. The observed productivity gains hold for a variety of specifications, and changes in the receiving establishments’ human capital stock are ruled out as an explanation.
    Keywords: Worker mobility, Spillovers, Productivity, Human capital
    JEL: D22 D62 J21 J24 J62 L25
    Date: 2022–08–05
  3. By: Katja Maria Kaufmann; Yasemin Özdemir; Han Ye
    Abstract: We study the impact of grandparental retirement decisions on family members’ labor supply and child outcomes by exploiting a Dutch pension reform in a fuzzy Regression Discontinuity design. A one-hour increase in grandmothers’ hours worked causes adult daughters with young children to work half an hour less. Daughters without children, with older children and sons/daughters-in-law are not affected. We show important long-run impacts on maternal labor supply and on the child penalty. Test score effects are positive for children aged 4-7 (substitution from grandparental to maternal care), and negative for children aged 11-12 (substitution from grandparental to formal childcare).
    Keywords: spillover effects, retirement, grandparental childcare, maternal labor supply, child development
    JEL: J13 J22 J26 I38 D64
    Date: 2022
  4. By: Jones, Stephen R. G. (McMaster University); Lange, Fabian (McGill University); Riddell, W. Craig (University of British Columbia, Vancouver); Warman, Casey (Dalhousie University)
    Abstract: The Canadian labour market experienced a period of unprecedented turmoil following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyze the main changes using standard labour force statistics and new data on job postings. Envisaging a phase of temporary severing of employment relationships followed by a phase of more standard labour market search and matching, we use stock and flow data to understand key developments. We find dramatic changes in employment, unemployment and labour market attachment in the first few months of the pandemic and a broad though gradual recovery through to the end of 2021.
    Keywords: COVID-19, coronavirus, job loss, unemployment, employment, transition rates
    JEL: E24 E32 I3 I14 I18 J21 J23 J31 J63
    Date: 2022–06
  5. By: Michael Christl (European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC-Seville)); Silvia De Poli (European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC-Seville)); Viginta Ivaskaite-Tamosiune (European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC-Seville))
    Abstract: In this paper, we use EUROMOD, the tax-benefit microsimulation model of the European Union,to investigate the impact of marriage-related tax-benefit instruments on the labour supply of married couples. For each married partner, we estimate their individual marginal effective tax rateand net replacement rate before and after marriage. We show that the marriage bonus, which iseconomically significant in eight European countries, decreases the work incentives for womenand, particularly, on the intensive margin. In contrast, the incentives on the intensive marginincrease for men once they are married, pointing to the marriage-biased and gender-biased taxbenefit structures in the analysed countries. Our results suggest that marriage bonuses contributeto a lock-in effect, where second earners, typically women, are incentivised to work less, withnegative economic consequences.
    Keywords: marriage, cohabitation, marriage bonus, work incentives, gender, tax-benefit system, labour supply, Europe
    JEL: H31 J12 J22
    Date: 2022–07
  6. By: Jones, Melanie K. (Cardiff University); Kaya, Ezgi (Cardiff University)
    Abstract: Since April 2017 UK employers with over 250 employees have been required to publicly report their gender pay gap each year. We exploit this recent source of panel data on employer-level gender pay gaps to provide new insights for the established literature on the gender pay gap based predominately on employee information. More specifically, we explore the factors associated with changing organisational gender pay gaps in the period immediately following transparency. Consistent with information, reflection and pressure brought by the legislation, we find greater narrowing of gender pay gaps in organisations with a larger initial gender pay gap. Moreover, this relationship is magnified over time, consistent with gradual and longer-term adjustment. We further find evidence that interorganisational comparisons matter. For organisations with higher gender pay gaps than the average of their intra-industry comparators, lower comparator gender pay gaps are associated with further narrowing, suggesting relative comparisons enabled by transparency per se provide a channel through which the impact of the legislation operates.
    Keywords: gender pay gap, pay transparency, equality legislation
    JEL: J31 J38 J78
    Date: 2022–05
  7. By: Alexander Bowyer; Richard Dorsett
    Abstract: In this paper, we use data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) to document the changing nature and characteristics of the self-employed in the UK between 2001 and 2020. A particular focus is on how self-employment has changed under COVID-19 relative to paid employment. Overall, there has been a sharp drop in the number of people self-employed and results from the longitudinal LFS indicate a marked increase in individuals reporting a move from self-employment to employment in 2020. The fact that there was no accompanying increase in the number of people changing jobs at this time may lend support to the hypothesis (Leaker, 2021) that once self-employed workers who paid themselves through PAYE realised that they were eligible for employee furlough payments through the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme they began to self-identify as employees despite no genuine change in their status. An econometric model is used to estimate the relative impact of the pandemic on self-employed people. The results suggest, first, that the self-employed were harder hit in respect of the probability of remaining in work. However, this relative effect was arguably quite small, at just 0.6 percentage points, although it was roughly twice that for certain occupations (managers (directors) and senior officials; associate, professional and technical) and for those working in banking, finance & insurance etc. For comparison, we show that it is a similar relative impact to that of the Great Recession. A more notable impact is found on the second outcome considered: hours worked. The pandemic reduced hours worked among self-employed people more than among employees. The relative impact of 3.7 hours per week reflects both the reduction in the proportion in work and reduced hours among those remaining in work. Again, there was considerable variation across individuals, with stronger effects among men, non-whites and those in their mid-forties, and a mixed pattern of impact variation by occupation and industry. The third outcome is the probability of working zero hours for those in work. The results suggest the pandemic increased this probability by 4.7 percentage points more among the self-employed than among employees.
    Keywords: covid-19, hours worked, labour supply, self-employment
    JEL: J21 J22 J63
    Date: 2022–07
  8. By: Robert W. Rich; Joseph Tracy
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the implications of alternative methods of aggregating individual wage data for the behavior of economy-wide wage growth. The analysis is motivated by evidence of significant heterogeneity in individual wage growth and its cyclicality. Because of this heterogeneity, the choice of aggregation will affect the properties of economy-wide wage growth measures. To assess the importance of this consideration, we provide a decomposition of wage growth into aggregation effects and composition effects and use the decomposition to compare growth in an average wage—specifically average hourly earnings—to a measure of average wage growth from the Survey of Income and Program Participation. We find that aggregation effects largely account for average hourly earnings growth being persistently lower and less cyclical than average wage growth over the period 1990-2015, with these effects reflecting a disproportionate weighting of high-earning workers. The analysis also indicates that composition effects now play a more limited role in the cyclicality of wage growth compared to results reported in previous studies for earlier time periods.
    Keywords: wage growth; aggregation effects; composition effects; wage-inflation Phillips curve
    JEL: J31 J33
    Date: 2022–08–02
  9. By: Haelim Anderson; Jin-Wook Chang
    Abstract: The U.S. economy entered the 1920s with a robust job market and high inflation but fell into a recession following the Federal Reserve's discount rate hikes to tame inflation. Using a newly constructed data set, we study labor market dynamics during this period. We find that labor markets were tight when the Federal Reserve began tightening monetary policy, but they became loose following the tightening as the recession deepened. The demand-supply imbalance in the labor market was driven by a sharp decline in the number of job openings. We also show that the recession had an uneven effect on labor markets across sectors and by gender.
    Keywords: Inflation; Recession of 1920-1921; Vacancies; Unemployment; Labor Market Dynamics
    JEL: E32 E24 J23 J63
    Date: 2022–08–01
  10. By: Andrea Borsato; Andre Lorentz
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the literature around the Kaldor-Verdoorn’s law and analyses the impact of robotisation on the channel through which the law shapes labour-productivity growth. We start with a simple evolutionary interpretation of the law that combines Kaldorian and Post-Keynesian arguments with the neo-Schumpeterian theory of innovation and technological change. Then we apply a GMM estimator to a panel of 17 industries in 25 OECD capitalist economies for the period 1990-2018. After elaborating on the general evidence of the Kaldor-Verdoorn’s law in the sample, we investigate the effect of increasing robotisation. The estimates suggest that for industries with a higher-than-average robot density, the increasing adoption of robots weakens, at least, the meso-economic channel that relates productivity growth to mechanisation. Yet, the higher degree of robotisation strengthens the mechanism that links labour productivity growth at the industrial level to the macro-level dynamic increasing returns to scale that emerge from a general expansion of economic activities through the many interactions between sectors. Such results are in agreement with the empirical literature that suggests different impacts from robotisation on the basis of the level of economic activity considered.
    Keywords: Labour productivity, Kaldor-Verdoorn’s law, Robotisation, GMM.
    JEL: J23 O33 O47
    Date: 2022
  11. By: Sainsbury, Tristram (Australian National University); Breunig, Robert (Australian National University); Watson, Timothy (Australian National University)
    Abstract: This is the first study to evaluate the effects of early pension withdrawal policies on tenures on unemployment payments in the COVID-19 context. We use a novel set of linked whole-of-population administrative records to examine more than half-a-million Australians who found themselves newly on an unemployment payment in the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimate that receiving a lump sum of up to A$10,000 from superannuation accounts at the most acute phase of the pandemic, between April and June 2020, resulted in a 32 per cent lower exit rate from unemployment benefits inside the first six months of a spell on benefits, and 14 per cent inside a year of spell. Receiving a lump sum during the second window of opportunity – mostly in July and August 2020 and as a labour market recovery was underway – resulted in a 34 per cent lower exit from unemployment benefits inside the first nine months of spell, and 14 per cent inside fifteen months of spell. The jobseeking deterrence is ultimately temporary but it took close to eighteen months for an estimated convergence between withdrawers and those that didn't withdraw. 162,000 withdrawers with completed spells on average spent an additional 7 weeks on unemployment payments, translating to 8 million additional days in aggregate, and implying A$580 million in additional pandemic fiscal expenditure.
    Keywords: unemployment, crisis management, fiscal policy, government expenditure, unemployment benefits, welfare programs, private pensions
    JEL: E24 H12 H30 H53 J32
    Date: 2022–06
  12. By: Michał Gradzewicz (National Bank of Poland and SGH Warsaw School of Economics)
    Abstract: The study aims to identify the granular demand and productivity shocks, their properties, and the responses of the important firm-level variables to these shocks. We use comprehensive data from the Polish enterprise sector that cover the 2002-2019 period. As the data do not include prices, the identification of the demand shocks relies on the information on inventory changes. We utilize the control function approach to estimate the parameters of the production function and to identify productivity shocks. We use projection methods with granular data to identify the dynamic impulse-response function. We show that the distributions of the two shocks differ: i.e., supply (productivity) shocks are symmetrically distributed, and the distribution of demand shocks is negatively skewed. Moreover, both distributions have fat tails. Productivity shocks have much more persistent effect on firms’ outcomes than demand shocks. Following demand shocks, there are short-lived increases in output, market share, productivity, real wages and markups; whereas investment and employment demand remain elevated for a longer period. We also find a very limited transmission of productivity into wages and we showed that proxies for prices increase after demand shocks, and they decrease after the supply shock, in a theory-consistent way.
    Keywords: demand shocks, supply shock, granular impulse response function, granular local projections
    JEL: D22 D24 D4 J42 L11
    Date: 2022
  13. By: Merfeld, Joshua D. (KDI School of Public Policy and Management); Newhouse, David (World Bank); Weber, Michael (University of Chicago); Lahiri, Partha (University of Maryland)
    Abstract: Better understanding the geography of women's labor market outcomes within countries is important to inform targeted efforts to increase women's economic empowerment. This paper assesses the extent to which a method that combines simulated survey data from urban areas in Mexico with broadly available geospatial indicators from Google Earth Engine and OpenStreetMap can significantly improve estimates of labor force participation and unemployment rates. Incorporating geospatial information substantially increases the accuracy of male and female labor force participation and unemployment rates at the state level, reducing mean absolute deviation by 50 to 62 percent for labor force participation and 25 to 52 percent for unemployment. Small area estimation using a nested error conditional random effect model also greatly improves municipal estimates of labor force participation, as the mean absolute error falls by approximately half, while the mean squared error falls by almost 75 percent when holding coverage rates constant. In contrast, the results for municipal unemployment rate estimates are not reliable because values of unemployment rates are low and therefore poorly suited for linear models. The municipal results hold in repeated simulations of alternative samples. Models utilizing Basic Geo-Statistical Area (AGEB)–level auxiliary information generate more accurate predictions than area-level models specified using the same auxiliary data. Overall, integrating survey data and publicly available geospatial indicators is feasible and can greatly improve state-level estimates of male and female labor force participation and unemployment rates, as well as municipal estimates of male and female labor force participation.
    Keywords: small area estimation, data integration, geospatial data, labor force participation, unemployment, Mexico
    JEL: J21 C13
    Date: 2022–06
  14. By: Cantarella, Michele; Kavonius, Ilja Kristian
    Abstract: The last few decades have been accompanied by disruptive changes to the structure ofemployment which have led to deterioration in demand for middle-skill occupations, a processknown as job polarisation. As the demand for middle-skill workers shrinks, expectationsabout households’ income through their lifetime horizon are adjusted. It is unclear whetherthese expectations can loop back into the credit system, and affect the lending behaviour ofcredit institutions, or whether this process impacts on the households’ self-assessment of theiropportunities to borrow money. In this paper, we study how the process of job polarisationaffects credit demand and supply, studying its relationship with credit constraint and creditquality. JEL Classification: G51, J24, D84, O15
    Keywords: employment expectations, household credit, job polarisation, job security
    Date: 2022–07
  15. By: Kozo Kiyota (Keio Economic Observatory, Keio University)
    Abstract: The declining share of manufacturing value-added, often referred to as "deindustrialization," is fast becoming a major concern for policymakers and academic researchers, especially in high-income countries. When compared with country-level analysis, however, regional-level analyses of deindustrialization within a country are limited. This paper empirically examines how and why the patterns of deindustrialization are uneven across regions within a country. The analysis builds upon the neoclassical trade model and uses regional-level data in Japan where both detailed output and input data are available at the regional and industry levels for both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing industries over the last four decades. One of the major findings is that the large variation in deindustrialization within a country is attributable to differences in productivity and price changes across regions. In contrast, the effect of the slowdown in capital accumulation, partly from the expansion of foreign direct investment or offshoring, commonly appears not in specific regions but across regions. The effect of spatial interdependence is also not only statistically significant but also nonnegligible in terms of its magnitude.
    Keywords: Deindustrialization;Region;Neoclassical trade model;Productivity;spatial interdependence
    JEL: F11 F14 R12
    Date: 2022–07–22
  16. By: Ursina Schaede; Ville Mankki
    Abstract: We evaluate equity-efficiency trade-offs from admissions quotas by examining effects on output once beneficiaries start producing in the relevant industry. In particular, we document the impact of abolishing a 40% quota for male primary school teachers in Finland on their pupils’ long-run outcomes. The quota had advantaged academically lower-scoring male university applicants, and its removal cut the share of men among new teachers by half. We combine this reform with the timing of union-mandated teacher retirements to isolate quasi-random variation in the local share of male quota teachers. Using comprehensive register data, we find that pupils exposed to a higher share of male quota teachers during primary school transition more smoothly to post-compulsory education, have higher educational attainment, and labor force attachment at age 25. Pupils of both genders benefit similarly from exposure to male quota teachers. Our findings are consistent with the quota improving the allocation of talent over the unconstrained selection process.
    Keywords: quota, education, affirmative action, gender, productivity
    JEL: J70 I20 M50
    Date: 2022
  17. By: OECD
    Abstract: The impacts of the war in Ukraine will be felt severely within OECD economies, especially in border regions on the front-line of the humanitarian refugee crisis. The economic impacts, in particular those driven by rising energy prices, will also be spatially differentiated, affecting some regions more than others. Italy is no exception, with gas-intensive industries concentrated in northern regions, and wheat-based food and farming prevailing in southern regions and islands. While, overall, Russia accounted for a minor share of Italian exports, some regions and industries are more vulnerable than others to falls in bilateral trade, including destinations popular with high per-capita expenditure Russian tourists.
    Keywords: commodities, employment, spatial analysis, tourism, trade
    JEL: F16 F51 J43 O13 R11 R12
    Date: 2022–07–06
  18. By: Anay Mehrota (Yale University); Bary S. R. Pradelski (CNRS); Nisheeth K. Vishnoi (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)
    Abstract: In selection processes such as hiring, promotion, and college admissions, implicit bias toward socially-salient attributes such as race, gender, or sexual orientation produces persistent inequality and reduces utility for the decision-maker. Recent works show that interventions like the Rooney Rule, which require a minimum quota of individuals from each affected group, are very effective in improving utility when individuals belong to at most one affected group. However, in several settings, individuals belong to multiple affected groups and, consequently, face more extreme implicit bias due to this intersectionality. We consider independently drawn utilities and show that, with intersectionality, the aforementioned non-intersectional constraints only recover part of the utility achievable in the absence of implicit bias. On the other hand, we show that appropriate lower-bound constraints on the intersections recover almost all the utility achievable in the absence of implicit bias. And, hence, offer an advantage over non-intersectional approaches to reducing inequality.
    Keywords: Implicit bias, selection, Hiring, Screening, Intersectionality, Intersectional biases, Affirmative Action, Rooney Rule, Antidiscrimination Policy, Social Factors on Decision Making
    JEL: J71 J78 D91 D63
    Date: 2022–06
  19. By: Schütt, Christoph; Pipke, David; Detlefsen, Lena; Grimalda, Gianluca
    Abstract: Ethnic discrimination is ubiquitous, and it has been shown to exert adverse effects on income redistribution. The reason is that a country's ethnic majority, if richer than the average, may be unwilling to transfer resources to the country's ethnic minorities if poorer than the average. A yet untested mechanism is that a country's ethnic majority may reduce their work effort knowing that their income will finance redistribution to ethnic minorities. We test for this mechanism experimentally in triadic interactions. A German citizen acting as a worker is randomly matched with a recipient who can be another German, an economic migrant, or an asylum seeker in Germany. Workers know that another German citizen may transfer part of their earnings to the recipient. The recipient does not exert any work effort. Even if the recipient's identity does not affect effort in the aggregate, social identity strongly moderates this relationship. Participants with a strong German identity, i.e., who report feeling close to other Germans, exert significantly less effort than other participants if the recipient is an asylum seeker. They also exert more effort when matched with a German recipient than an asylum seeker, while participants with a less strong German identity do the opposite. Moreover, participants with a strong German identity exert slightly more effort when matched with economic migrants than with asylum seekers, while others tend to do the opposite, albeit statistically insignificantly. Workers' beliefs over the third party's redistribution rate do not mediate such results and are generally inaccurate.
    Keywords: Redistribution,Discrimination,Taxes,Beliefs,Real effort,Experiment
    JEL: C91 H23 I31 J15 J30
    Date: 2022
  20. By: Chakravorty, Bhaskar (University of Warwick and GLO); Bhatiya, Apurav Yash (University of Birmingham and CAGE); Imbert, Clement (BREAD, CEPR, EUDN, JPAL and University of Warwick); Lohnert, Maximilian (JPAL SA); Panda, Poonam; Rathelot, Roland (CEPR and Institut Polytechnique de Paris)
    Abstract: This paper presents evidence on the short and long-term impact of the COVID-19 crisis on India’s rural youth. We interviewed about 2,000 vocational trainees from Bihar and Jharkhand three times after the first national lockdown in 2020, between June 2020 and December 2021. We find that a third of respondents who were in salaried jobs pre-lockdown lost their jobs, and half of those who worked out of state returned home shortly after the lockdown. We report a stark difference between men and women: while many male workers took up informal employment, most female workers dropped out of the labor force. In the second part of the paper, we use a randomised experiment to document the effects of a government-supported digital platform designed to provide jobs to low-skilled workers. The platform turned out to be difficult to use and publicised only a few job ads. We find no effect on job search intensity or employment. Our findings suggest that bridging the gap between rural young workers and urban formal labor markets requires more active and targeted policy interventions, especially for female workers Key words: Youth unemployment ; gender ; vocational training ; public policy JEL Codes: J2 ; J3 ; J6 ; J7 ; M5
    Date: 2022

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