nep-lma New Economics Papers
on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages
Issue of 2021‒01‒25
27 papers chosen by
Joseph Marchand
University of Alberta

  1. Evolution of the East German wage structure By Brüll, Eduard; Gathmann, Christina
  2. AI and Jobs: Evidence from Online Vacancies By Daron Acemoglu; David Autor; Jonathon Hazell; Pascual Restrepo
  3. Self-employment and subjective well-being By Binder, Martin; Blankenberg, Ann-Kathrin
  4. Entrepreneurial Teams: Diversity of Skills and Early-Stage Growth By Francesco D’Acunto; Geoffrey Tate; Liu Yang
  5. Family and Government Insurance: Wage, Earnings, and Income Risks in the Netherlands and the U.S. By Mariacristina De Nardi; Giulio Fella
  6. Unearned Income and Labor Supply: Evidence from Survivor Pensions in Austria By Böheim, René; Topf, Michael
  7. When Opportunity Knocks: Confronting Theory and Empirics about Dynamics of Gender Wage Inequality By Tyrowicz, Joanna; van der Velde, Lucas
  8. Trade-induced local labor market shocks and asymmetrical labor income risk By Ursula Mello; Tomas Rodriguez Martinez
  9. Can older workers stay productive? The role of ICT skills and training By Jong-Wha Lee; Do Won Kwak; Eunbi Song
  10. Escaping Social Pressure: Fixed-Term Contracts in Multi-Establishment Firms By Bassanini, Andrea; Caroli, Eve; Fontaine, Francois; Rebérioux, Antoine
  11. Academic Careers and Fertility Decisions By De Paola, Maria; Nistico, Roberto; Scoppa, Vincenzo
  12. Returns to higher education and dropouts: A double machine learning approach By McNamara, Sarah
  13. Business-Level Expectations and Uncertainty By Nicholas Bloom; Steven J. Davis; Lucia Foster; Brian Lucking; Scott Ohlmacher; Itay Saporta-Eksten
  14. Wage Risk and Government and Spousal Insurance By Mariacristina De Nardi; Giulio Fella
  15. Gender Differences in the Skill Content of Jobs By Rita Petõ; Reizer Balázs
  16. What makes an artist? The evolution and clustering of creative activity in the US since 1850 By Borowiecki, Karol Jan; Dahl, Christian Møller
  17. Quality and Selection in Regulated Professions By Gaetano Basso; Eleonora Brandimarti; Michele Pellizzari; Giovanni Pica
  18. International Trade and Earnings Inequality: A New Factor Content Approach By Rodrigo Adão; Paul Carrillo; Arnaud Costinot; Dave Donaldson; Dina Pomeranz
  19. Do Employees Benefit from Worker Representation on Corporate Boards? By Christine Blandhol; Magne Mogstad; Peter Nilsson; Ola L. Vestad
  20. "What Jobs Should a Public Job Guarantee Provide?: Lessons from Hyman P. Minsky" By Daniel Haim
  21. Earnings of university dropouts across Europe By Berlingieri, Francesco; Bolz, Theresa
  22. Quality of Life in a Dynamic Spatial Model By Gabriel Ahlfeldt; Fabian Bald; Duncan Roth; Tobias Seidel
  23. What happened to jobs at high risk of automation? By Alexandre Georgieff; Anna Milanez
  24. Self-image Bias and Lost Talent By Marciano Siniscalchi; Pietro Veronesi
  25. Does the Education Level of Refugees Affect Natives’ Attitudes? By Philipp Lergetporer; Marc Piopiunik; Lisa Simon
  26. Who Cleans My House If the Government Pays? Disadvantaged Labor Market Groups in the Tax-Subsidized Domestic Service Sector By Rickne, Johanna
  27. Moms' Time—Married or Not By Hamermesh, Daniel S.

  1. By: Brüll, Eduard; Gathmann, Christina
    Abstract: We analyze the evolution of the wage structure in East Germany over the past two decades and compare it to West Germany. Both regions experienced a rise in wage inequality between 1995 and 2009 with wage dispersion in East Germany exceeding West Germany, esp. at the top. We also show that wage inequality is no longer rising in Germany and has even been declining in East Germany after 2009. Compositional changes of the workforce and selection along the employment margin play only a minor role as does the decline of union coverage for the rise in wage inequality. The adoption of minimum wages in selected industries, in contrast, explains all of the turnaround in East German wage inequality after 2009. Demand side changes seem to account for the rise in wage dispersion at the top.
    Keywords: Wage inequality,Labor market institutions,Germany
    JEL: J21 J23 J24 J31 J42 J64
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Daron Acemoglu; David Autor; Jonathon Hazell; Pascual Restrepo
    Abstract: We study the impact of AI on labor markets, using establishment level data on vacancies with detailed occupational information comprising the near-universe of online vacancies in the US from 2010 onwards. We classify establishments as "AI exposed" when their workers engage in tasks that are compatible with current AI capabilities. We document rapid growth in AI related vacancies over 2010-2018 that is not limited to the Professional and Business Services and Information Technology sectors and is significantly greater in AI-exposed establishments. AI-exposed establishments are differentially eliminating vacancy postings that list a range of previously-posted skills while simultaneously posting skill requirements that were not previously listed. Establishment-level estimates suggest that AI-exposed establishments are reducing hiring in non-AI positions as they expand AI hiring. However, we find no discernible relationship between AI exposure and employment or wage growth at the occupation or industry level, implying that AI is currently substituting for humans in a subset of tasks but it is not yet having detectable aggregate labor market consequences.
    JEL: J23 O33
    Date: 2020–12
  3. By: Binder, Martin; Blankenberg, Ann-Kathrin
    Abstract: Self-employment contributes to employment growth and innovativeness and many individuals want to become self-employed due to the autonomy and exibility it brings. Using "subjective well-being" as a broad summary measure that evaluates an individual's experience of being self-employed, the chapter discusses evidence and explanations why self-employment is positively associated with job satisfaction, even though the self-employed often earn less than their employed peers, work longer hours and experience more stress and higher job demands. Despite being more satisfied with their jobs, the self-employed do not necessarily enjoy higher overall life satisfaction, which is due to heterogeneity of types of self-employment, as well as motivational factors, work characteristics and institutional setups across countries.
    Keywords: self-employment,entrepreneurship,subjective well-being,job satisfaction,lifesatisfaction
    JEL: L26 J24 J28
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Francesco D’Acunto; Geoffrey Tate; Liu Yang
    Abstract: We use employer-employee linked data to track the employment histories of team members prior to startup formation for a full cohort of new firms in the U.S. Using pre-startup industry experience to measure skillsets, we find that startups that have founding teams with more diverse collective skillsets grow faster than peer firms in the same industries and local economies. A one standard deviation increase in teams’ skill diversity is associated with an increase in five-year employment (sales) growth of 16% (10%) from the mean. The effects are stronger among startups in innovative industries and among startups facing greater ex-ante uncertainty. Moreover, the results are robust to a variety of approaches to address the endogeneity of team composition. Overall, our results suggest that teams with more diverse collective skillsets adapt their strategies more successfully in the uncertain environments faced by (innovative) startup firms.
    Keywords: Economic Growth, Startups, Teams, Diversity, Innovation, Personnel Economics
    JEL: L25 L26 J24 M51
    Date: 2020–12
  5. By: Mariacristina De Nardi; Giulio Fella
    Abstract: We document new facts about risk in male wages and earnings, household earnings, and pre- and post-tax income in the Netherlands and the United States. We find that, in both countries, earnings display important deviations from the typical assumptions of linearity and normality. Individual-level male wage and earnings risk is relatively high at the beginning and end of the working life, and for those in the lower and upper parts of the income distribution. Hours are the main driver of the negative skewness and, to a lesser extent, the high kurtosis of earnings changes. Even though we find no evidence of added-worker effects, the presence of spousal earnings reduces the variability of household income compared to that of male earnings. In the Netherlands, government transfers are a major source of insurance, substantially reducing the standard deviation, negative skewness, and kurtosis of income changes. In the U.S. the role of family insurance is much larger than in the Netherlands. Family and government insurance reduce, but do not eliminate nonlinearities in household disposable income by age and previous earnings in either country.
    Keywords: Self-insurance; Wage risk; Social insurance; Life cycle; Progressive taxation; Redistribution
    JEL: D31 E24 H31 J31
    Date: 2020–10–26
  6. By: Böheim, René (University of Linz); Topf, Michael (Federal Ministry of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection, Austria)
    Abstract: We study the effect of lower unearned income on labor supply. To identify the causal effect of an unexpected reduction in unearned income, we exploit a policy reform that lowered survivor pensions in Austria. Men widowed after the survivor pension reform received an approximately 34% lower survivor pension than men widowed before the reform. We follow the employment history of both groups for 150 months and estimate the reform's effect on labor supply using a regression discontinuity design. The effect of the lower pension is evident immediately after the death of their spouse, is persistent over time, becomes more pronounced over time, and is robust across model specifications. Our baseline result suggests a 3.5 to 5.4 percentage point higher employment rate for survivors in the low pension regime in the long run. The estimated effect corresponds to a labor supply elasticity at the extensive margin with respect to the changes in total income of about -0.9 to -1.3.
    Keywords: labor supply, unearned income, regression discontinuity design
    JEL: I38 J22 J48
    Date: 2020–12
  7. By: Tyrowicz, Joanna (University of Warsaw); van der Velde, Lucas (GRAPE)
    Abstract: We present empirical evidence that large structural shocks are followed by changes in labor market inequality. Specifically, we study short-run fluctuations in adjusted gender wage gaps (unequal pay for equal work) following episodes of structural shocks in the labor markets, using several decades of individual data for a wide selection of transition countries. We find that for cohorts who entered the labor market after the onset of transition. Labor market shocks lead to significant declines in the gender wage gap. This decrease is driven mostly by episodes experienced among cohorts who enter the labor market during the transition. By contrast, we fail to find any significant relation for cohorts already active in the labor market at the time of transition. We provide plausible explanations based on sociological and economic theories of inequality.
    Keywords: gender wage gap, transition, non-parametric estimates, worker flows
    JEL: C24 J22 J31 J71
    Date: 2021–01
  8. By: Ursula Mello; Tomas Rodriguez Martinez
    Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between international trade and asymmetrical labor income risk. Using the case study of Brazil, we inspect how an increase in import penetration following the China shock impacted the distribution of idiosyncratic earnings changes across the country's local labor markets, depending on the initial sectoral composition of each region. We find that an increase in import penetration leads to a more disperse and negatively skewed distribution and that these effects can partially be explained by an increase in the volatility of hours worked following job and industry transitions. Moreover, the effect on dispersion grows larger as the lags between periods increase, suggesting a rise in the permanent risk. Through the lens of an incomplete market model, an unborn individual would be willing to forgo up to 4.4% of consumption to avoid the riskier labor market. The welfare cost is half if the higher-order risk is ignored.
    Keywords: labor income risk, international trade, China shock, income process
    JEL: D31 E24 F14 F16 J31
    Date: 2020–12
  9. By: Jong-Wha Lee; Do Won Kwak; Eunbi Song
    Abstract: This paper quantitatively examines the effects of aging on labor productivity using individual worker data in Korea. We find that attainment of information and communications technology (ICT) skills and participation in job-related training can help older workers stay productive. The estimation results present that ICT skills attainment has a positive effect on the wages of the older workers aged 50–64 with a high level of education or in a skill-intensive occupation. Job training also has a significant positive effect on the wages of older workers. Even compared to younger workers, older well-educated workers can be more productive through higher ICT skills attainment and job-training participation. The evidence suggests that a productivity decrease in line with the aging process can be mitigated by training aging workers to equip themselves with ICT skills.
    Keywords: aging, education, information and communications technology, productivity, skill, training
    JEL: J14 J24 J31 O47
    Date: 2021–01
  10. By: Bassanini, Andrea (OECD); Caroli, Eve (Université Paris-Dauphine); Fontaine, Francois (Paris School of Economics); Rebérioux, Antoine (Université de Paris)
    Abstract: We develop a simple theoretical model showing that, by adding to the adjustment costs associated with permanent contracts, local social pressure against dismissals creates an incentive for CEOs to rely on fixed-term contracts, in an attempt to escape social pressure. Using linked employer-employee data, we show that establishments located closer to headquarters have higher shares of fixed-term contracts in hiring than those located further away whenever firms' headquarters are located in self-centered communities and the CEO not only works but also lives there. We show that these findings can only be explained by local social pressure.
    Keywords: social pressure, employment contracts, adjustment costs, CEO reputation
    JEL: J23 J41 M14 M55 R12
    Date: 2021–01
  11. By: De Paola, Maria (University of Calabria); Nistico, Roberto (University of Naples Federico II); Scoppa, Vincenzo (University of Calabria)
    Abstract: We investigate how academic promotions affect the propensity of women to have a child. We use administrative data on the universe of female assistant professors employed in Italian universities from 2001 to 2018. We estimate a model with individual fixed effects and find that promotion to associate professor increases the probability of having a child by 0.6 percentage points, which translates into an increase by 12.5% of the mean. This result is robust to employing a Regression Discontinuity Design in which we exploit the eligibility requirements in terms of research productivity introduced since 2012 by the Italian National Scientific Qualification (NSQ) as an instrument for qualification (and therefore promotion) to associate professor. Our finding provides important policy implications in that reducing uncertainty on career prospects may lead to an increase in fertility.
    Keywords: fertility, promotion, academic career, career uncertainty
    JEL: J13 J65 J41 M51 C31
    Date: 2021–01
  12. By: McNamara, Sarah
    Abstract: This paper provides estimates of the short-term individual returns to Higher Education (HE) in the United Kingdom, focusing on the effects of attending HE on the labour market outcomes for dropouts. Results show differential labour market outcomes for dropouts vs. individuals who have never attended HE, where outcomes are employment, wages and occupational status. I find that female dropouts, on average, have a higher occupational status than those who have never participated in HE, but do not experience a wage premium. Conversely, male dropouts experience a wage premium relative those who have never participated in HE, but the effect on occupational status is comparatively small. The evidence is mixed, however, as both male and female dropouts are more likely to be unemployed, though the effect is larger for males.
    Keywords: university education,higher education,graduation,dropout,returns to education
    JEL: I23 I26 J31
    Date: 2020
  13. By: Nicholas Bloom; Steven J. Davis; Lucia Foster; Brian Lucking; Scott Ohlmacher; Itay Saporta-Eksten
    Abstract: The Census Bureau’s 2015 Management and Organizational Practices Survey (MOPS) utilized innovative methodology to collect five-point forecast distributions over own future shipments, employment, and capital and materials expenditures for 35,000 U.S. manufacturing plants. First and second moments of these plant-level forecast distributions covary strongly with first and second moments, respectively, of historical outcomes. The first moment of the distribution provides a measure of business’ expectations for future outcomes, while the second moment provides a measure of business’ subjective uncertainty over those outcomes. This subjective uncertainty measure correlates positively with financial risk measures. Drawing on the Annual Survey of Manufactures and the Census of Manufactures for the corresponding realizations, we find that subjective expectations are highly predictive of actual outcomes and, in fact, more predictive than statistical models fit to historical data. When respondents express greater subjective uncertainty about future outcomes at their plants, their forecasts are less accurate. However, managers supply overly precise forecast distributions in that implied confidence intervals for sales growth rates are much narrower than the distribution of actual outcomes. Finally, we develop evidence that greater use of predictive computing and structured management practices at the plant and a more decentralized decision-making process (across plants in the same firm) are associated with better forecast accuracy.
    JEL: L2 M2 O32 O33
    Date: 2020–12
  14. By: Mariacristina De Nardi; Giulio Fella
    Abstract: The extent to which households can self-insure and the government can help them to do so depends on the wage risk that they face and their family structure. We study wage risk in the UK and show that the persistence and riskiness of wages depends on one's age and position in the wage distribution. We also calibrate a model of couples and singles with two alternative processes for wages: a canonical one and a flexible one that allows for the much richer dynamics that we document in the data. We use our model to show that allowing for rich wage dynamics is important to properly evaluate the effects of benefit reform: relative to the richer process, the canonical process underestimates wage persistence for women and generates a more important role for in-work benefits relative to income support. The optimal benefit configuration under the richer wage process, instead, is similar to that in place in the benchmark UK economy before the Universal Credit reform. The Universal Credit reform generates additional welfare gains by introducing an income disregard for families with children. While families with children are better off, households without children, and particularly single women, are worse off.
    Keywords: Government; Government benefits; Self-insurance; Wage risk; Family
    JEL: D15 H24
    Date: 2020–12–23
  15. By: Rita Petõ (Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Toth Kalman u. 4. Budapest, 1097 Hungary); Reizer Balázs (Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Toth Kalman u. 4. Budapest, 1097 Hungary)
    Abstract: There is significant heterogeneity in actual skill use within occupations even though occupations are differentiated by the tasks workers should perform during work. Using data on 12 countries which are available both in the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies survey and International Social Survey Program, we show that women use their cognitive skills less than men even within the same occupation. The gap in skill intensity cannot be explained by differences in worker characteristics or in cognitive skills. Instead, we show that living in a partnership significantly increases the skill use of men compared with women. We argue that having a partner affects skill use through time allocation as the gender penalty of partnered women is halved once we control for working hours and hours spent on housework. Finally, we do not find evidence of workplace discrimination against women.
    Keywords: Gender Gaps, Time Allocation, Human Capital, Skills
    JEL: J16 J22 J24
    Date: 2021–01
  16. By: Borowiecki, Karol Jan (Historical Economics and Development Group (HEDG)); Dahl, Christian Møller (Department of Business and Economics)
    Abstract: This research illuminates the historical development and clustering of creative activity in the United States. Census data is used to identify creative occupations (i.e., artists, musicians, authors, actors) and data on prominent creatives, as listed in a comprehensive biographical compendium. The analysis first sheds light on the socio-economic background of creative people and how it has changed since 1850. The results indicate that the proportion of female creatives is relatively high, time constraints can be a hindrance for taking up a creative occupation, racial inequality is present and tends to change only slowly, and access to financial resources within a family facilitates the uptake of an artistic occupation. Second, the study systematically documents and quantifies the geography of creative clusters in the United States and explains how these have evolved over time and across creative domains.
    Keywords: Creativity; artists; geographic clustering; agglomeration economies; urban history
    JEL: N33 R10 Z11
    Date: 2021–01–22
  17. By: Gaetano Basso (Bank of Italy); Eleonora Brandimarti (University of Geneva); Michele Pellizzari (University of Geneva, CEPR and IZA.); Giovanni Pica (Università della Svizzera Italiana, LdA and CSEF.)
    Abstract: Entry in many occupations is regulated with the objective to screen out the least able producers and guarantee high quality of output. Unfortunately, the available empirical evidence suggests that in most cases these objectives are not achieved. In this paper we investigate entry into the legal profession in Italy and we document that such a failure is due to the combination of the incomplete anonymity of the entry exam and the intergenerational transmission of business opportunities. We use microdata covering the universe of law school graduates from 2007 to 2013 matched with their careers and earnings up to 5 years after graduation. Variation generated by the random assignment of the entry exam grading commissions allows us to identify the role of family ties in the selection process. We find that connected candidates, i.e. those with relatives already active in the profession, are more likely to pass the exam and eventually earn more, especially those who performed poorly in law school. When we simulate the process of occupational choice assuming family connections did not matter, we find that strong positive selection on ability would emerge.
    Keywords: Occupational Regulation, Licensing, Intergenerational Mobility.
    JEL: J24 J44 J62
    Date: 2021–01–15
  18. By: Rodrigo Adão; Paul Carrillo; Arnaud Costinot; Dave Donaldson; Dina Pomeranz
    Abstract: We develop a new factor content approach to study the impact of trade on inequality. Our analysis generalizes the theoretical results of Deardorff and Staiger (1988) and improves on past empirical implementations of these results. Combined with unique administrative data from Ecuador, our approach yields measures of individual-level exposure to exports and imports, for both capital and labor income, as well as estimates of the incidence of such exposure across the income distribution. We find that international trade raises earnings inequality in Ecuador, especially in the upper-half of the income distribution. However, the drop in inequality experienced by Ecuador over the last decade would have been less pronounced in the absence of trade.
    JEL: D3 F1 F6 J2
    Date: 2020–12
  19. By: Christine Blandhol; Magne Mogstad; Peter Nilsson; Ola L. Vestad
    Abstract: Do employees benefit from worker representation on corporate boards? Economists and policymakers are keenly interested in this question – especially lately, as worker representation is widely promoted as an important way to ensure the interests and views of the workers. To investigate this question, we apply a variety of research designs to administrative data from Norway. We find that a worker is paid more and faces less earnings risk if she gets a job in a firm with worker representation on the corporate board. However, these gains in wages and declines in earnings risk are not caused by worker representation per se. Instead, the wage premium and reduced earnings risk reflect that firms with worker representation are likely to be larger and unionized, and that larger and unionized firms tend to both pay a premium and provide better insurance to workers against fluctuations in firm performance. Conditional on the firm’s size and unionization rate, worker representation has little if any effect. Taken together, these findings suggest that while workers may indeed benefit from being employed in firms with worker representation, they would not benefit from legislation mandating worker representation on corporate boards.
    JEL: G34 G38 J31 J54 J58
    Date: 2020–12
  20. By: Daniel Haim
    Abstract: The job guarantee is a viable policy option for tackling both unemployment and underemployment. Hyman P. Minsky was one of the seminal writers on this subject. The first part of this working paper provides a survey of Minsky's writings to identify what kind of jobs he had in mind when recommending employer-of-last-resort policies. Minsky favored: (1) jobs increasing socially useful output, providing all of society better public services and goods; (2) jobs guaranteed by the public sector on a project-by-project basis at a minimum wage; (3) jobs in the places where people need them; and (4) jobs taking the people that need them as they are. The second part of the paper suggests policy recommendations for today's economy. As long as the COVID-19 pandemic still rages on, a targeted public job guarantee program can assist in the social provisioning and distribution of food, shelter, and medical services. After the pandemic, a public job guarantee can reduce poverty and inequality, and bring about a more democratic, sustainable, and socially cohesive economic system.
    Keywords: Job Guarantee; Public Service Employment; Employer of Last Resort (ELR); Unemployment; Full Employment; Minsky; Policy Design; COVID-19
    JEL: B31 E24 E61 H41 H53 I38 J21 J45 J68
    Date: 2021–01
  21. By: Berlingieri, Francesco; Bolz, Theresa
    Abstract: This paper investigates relative earnings of individuals leaving tertiary education without a degree across 18 European countries employing survey data on adult workers. We find that, on average, university dropouts earn 8% more than those never enrolling into tertiary education, but 25% less than university graduates. Moreover, university dropouts do not appear to have better employment chances than other upper secondary graduates while they have a significantly lower employment probability than those graduating from tertiary education. We document substantial heterogeneity across countries concerning whether university attendance without completion is rewarded in the labour market. We find some suggestive evidence that university dropouts are less penalised in terms of earnings in countries with a lower share of tertiary graduates and with more flexible labour market policies.
    Keywords: university dropout,returns to higher education,international comparisons
    JEL: I23 I26 J31
    Date: 2020
  22. By: Gabriel Ahlfeldt; Fabian Bald; Duncan Roth; Tobias Seidel
    Abstract: We develop a dynamic spatial model in which heterogeneous workers are imperfectly mobile and forward-looking and yet all structural fundamentals can be inverted without assuming that the economy is in a stationary spatial equilibrium. Exploiting this novel feature of the model, we show that the canonical spatial equilibrium framework understates spatial quality-of-life differentials, the urban quality-of-life premium and the value of local non-marketed goods. Unlike the canonical spatial equilibrium framework, the model quantitatively accounts for local welfare effects that motivate many place-based policies seeking to improve quality of life.
    Keywords: Covid, dynamic, housing, migration, rents, pollution, productivity, spatial equilibrium, quality of life, wages, welfare
    JEL: J20 J30 R20 R30 R50
    Date: 2020
  23. By: Alexandre Georgieff; Anna Milanez
    Abstract: This study looks at what happened to jobs at risk of automation over the past decade and across 21 countries. There is no support for net job destruction at the broad country level. All countries experienced employment growth over the past decade and countries that faced higher automation risk back in 2012 experienced higher employment growth over the subsequent period. At the occupational level, however, employment growth has been much lower in jobs at high risk of automation (6%) than in jobs at low risk (18%).Low-educated workers were more concentrated in high-risk occupations in 2012 and have become even more concentrated in these occupations since then. In spite of this, the low growth in jobs in high-risk occupations has not led to a drop in the employment rate of low-educated workers relative to that of other education groups. This is largely because the number of low-educated workers has fallen in line with the demand for these workers.Going forward, however, the risk of automation is increasingly falling on low-educated workers and the COVID-19 crisis may have accelerated automation, as companies reduce reliance on human labour and contact between workers, or re-shore some production.
    Keywords: automation, job stability
    JEL: E32 J22 J23
    Date: 2021–01–25
  24. By: Marciano Siniscalchi; Pietro Veronesi
    Abstract: We propose an overlapping-generations model in which established researchers evaluate the research of new researchers. All researchers are differentially endowed with equally desirable research characteristics and belong to two groups, M or F, which have identical ex-ante productivity distributions. Evaluations are group-blind. Yet, when research is evaluated on many characteristics, evaluators' self-image bias and mild between-group heterogeneity lead the initially larger group, say M, to dominate indefinitely. M-researchers only accept the research of young scholars with characteristics close to theirs. Promoted F-researchers are thus few and "similar" to M-researchers, perpetuating the asymmetry. This talent loss is exacerbated by candidates' career concerns and institutions' focus on hiring faculty whose research will be approved by established researchers. Mentorship reduces group imbalance, but it increases the F-group talent loss. Affirmative action reduces both. Our model's predictions are consistent with existing empirical evidence on female participation in academic economics.
    JEL: A11 J16 J7
    Date: 2020–12
  25. By: Philipp Lergetporer; Marc Piopiunik; Lisa Simon
    Abstract: In recent years, Europe has experienced a large influx of refugees. While natives’ attitudes toward refugees are decisive for the political feasibility of asylum policies, little is known about how these attitudes are shaped by information about refugees’ characteristics. We conducted a survey experiment with a representative sample of more than 4,000 adults in Germany in which we randomly provide information about refugees’ education level. Information provision strongly increases respondents’ beliefs that refugees are well educated. The information also increases labor market competition concerns, decreases fiscal burden concerns, and positively affects general attitudes toward refugees. We perform several robustness analyses in additional experiments with more than 5,000 university students. In sum, we show that correcting misperceptions about refugees’ education level has profound effects on natives’ attitudes.
    Keywords: Refugees, information provision, education, survey experiment, labor market
    JEL: F22 J24 D83 C91
    Date: 2021
  26. By: Rickne, Johanna (Swedish Institute for Social Research)
    Abstract: Many European countries have implemented policies to revive their domestic service sectors. A common goal of these reforms has been to create employment for disadvantaged groups on the labor market. I study Sweden, where a 50% tax deduction on labor costs for domestic services was introduced in 2007. I use detailed administrative data to report the shares of three disadvantaged groups among small business owners and employees in tax-subsidized firms. I then compare these shares to all private firms and to firms in two industrial subsectors with a predominance of elementary occupations. I find that the shares of refugees and long-term unemployed are of similar sizes in the subsidized firms as in the private sector as a whole. For the third group—people with a low level of education—I find a larger share in the subsidized firms compared to the average private firm, but a smaller share compared to the other industries with elementary occupations. An extended analysis suggests that labor immigration to the subsidized sector from other EU countries may have crowded out the disadvantaged groups. EU immigrants operate half of all subsidized firms in Sweden's largest cities and employ mainly other EU immigrants in their businesses.
    Keywords: domestic services, tax deduction, employment, refugee immigrants
    JEL: J21 J23 J61 H2
    Date: 2021–01
  27. By: Hamermesh, Daniel S. (Barnard College)
    Abstract: Using time-diary data from the U.S. and six wealthy European countries, I demonstrate that non-partnered mothers spend slightly less time performing childcare, but much less time in other household activities than partnered mothers. Unpartnered mothers' total work time—paid work and household production—is slightly less than partnered women's. In the U.S. but not elsewhere they watch more television and engage in fewer other leisure activities. These differences are independent of any differences in age, race/ethnicity, ages and numbers of children, and household incomes. Non-partnered mothers feel slightly more pressured for time and much less satisfied with their lives. Analyses using the NLSY79 show that mothers whose partners left the home in the past two years became more depressed than those whose marriages remained intact. Coupled with evidence that husbands spend substantial time in childcare and with their children, the results suggest that children of non-partnered mothers receive much less parental care—perhaps 40 percent less—than other children; and most of what they receive is from mothers who are less satisfied with their lives.
    Keywords: time use, marital status, life satisfaction, time stress, depression
    JEL: J22 J12 I31
    Date: 2020–12

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