nep-lma New Economics Papers
on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages
Issue of 2019‒07‒08
25 papers chosen by
Joseph Marchand
University of Alberta

  1. Wages and Hours Laws: What Do We Know? What Can Be Done? By Charles C. Brown; Daniel S. Hamermesh
  2. Expertise and Independence on Governing Boards: Evidence from School Districts By Shi, Ying; Singleton, John D.
  3. Employer Learning and the Dynamics of Returns to Universities: Evidence from Chinese Elite Education during University Expansion By Sylvie Démurger; Eric A. Hanushek; Lei Zhang
  4. The Impact of Horizontal Job-Education Mismatches on the Earnings of Recent University Graduates in Russia By Rudakov, Victor; Figueiredo, Hugo; Teixeira, Pedro N.; Roshchin, Sergey
  5. Imperfect Competition, Compensating Differentials and Rent Sharing in the U.S. Labor Market By Thibaut Lamadon; Magne Mogstad; Bradley Setzler
  6. Does Workplace Competition Increase Labor Supply? Evidence from a Field Experiment By Amalia R. Miller; Ragan Petrie; Carmit Segal
  7. Incentivized Resume Rating: Eliciting Employer Preferences without Deception By Judd Kessler; Corinne Low; Colin D. Sullivan
  8. Decentralization of wage determination. Evidence from a national teacher reform. By Willén, Alexander
  9. Exuberant proclivity towards non-standard employment: evidence from linked employer-employee data By A. Arrighetti; E. Bartoloni; F. Landini; C. Pollio
  10. Minimum wage workers in the private sector in Poland: regional perspective By Aleksandra Majchrowska; Pawe³ Strawiñski
  11. Working for an entrepreneur: Heaven or Hell? By Nyström, Kristina
  12. What works for Active Labor Market Policies? A meta analysis By Eduardo Levy Yeyati; Martín Montané; Luca Sartorio
  13. Do Tax Incentives Affect Business Location and Economic Development? Evidence from State Film Incentives By Patrick Button
  14. Employment outcomes and policies in Sweden during recent decades By Forslund, Anders
  15. Self-regulation Training and Job Search Behavior: A Natural Field Experiment Within an Active Labor Market Program By Berger, Eva M.; Hermes, Henning; Koenig, Guenther; Schmidt, Felix; Schunk, Daniel
  16. Mapping stratification: The industry-occupation space reveals the network structure of inequality By Hartmann, Dominik; Jara-Figueroa, Cristian; Kaltenberg, Mary; Gala, Paulo
  17. The Precariat Class Structure and Income Inequality Among US Workers: 1980-2018 By Joshua Greenstein
  18. If Wages Fell During a Recession By Joy Buchanan; Daniel Houser
  19. Wages, Experience and Training of Women over the Lifecycle By Richard Blundell; Monica Costa Dias; David Goll; Costas Meghir
  20. Incentives for labor-augmenting innovation: The role of wage rate By Luca Sandrini
  21. Firm-level employment, labour market reforms, and bank distress By Setzer, Ralph; Stieglitz, Moritz
  22. Digitalization and the future of work: Macroeconomic consequences By Arntz, Melanie; Gregory, Terry; Zierahn, Ulrich
  23. Multiple Births, Birth Quality and Maternal Labor Supply: Analysis of IVF Reform in Sweden By Bhalotra, Sonia; Clarke, Damian; Mühlrad, Hanna; Palme, Mårten
  24. Ethnic identity and the employment outcomes of immigrants: evidence from France By Isaure Delaporte
  25. Public Universities: The Supply Side of Building a Skilled Workforce By John Bound; Breno Braga; Gaurav Khanna; Sarah Turner

  1. By: Charles C. Brown; Daniel S. Hamermesh
    Abstract: We summarize recent research on the wage and employment effects of minimum wage laws in the U.S. and infer from non-U.S. studies of hours laws the likely effects of unchanging U.S. hours laws. Minimum wages in the U.S. have increasingly become a province of state governments, with the effective minimum wage now closely related to a state’s wage near the lower end of its wage distribution. Original estimates demonstrate how the 45-year failure to increase the exempt earnings level for salaried workers under U.S. hours laws has raised hours of lower-earning salaried workers and reduced their weekly earnings. The overall conclusion from the literature and the original work is that wages and hours laws in the U.S. have produced impacts in the directions predicted by economic theory, but that these effects have been quite small.
    JEL: J23 J38
    Date: 2019–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25942&r=all
  2. By: Shi, Ying (Stanford University); Singleton, John D. (University of Rochester)
    Abstract: In this paper, we study the roles of expertise and independence on governing boards in the context of education. In particular, we examine the causal influence of professional educators elected to local school boards on education production. Educators may bring valuable human capital to school district leadership, thereby improving student learning. Alternatively, the independence of educators may be distorted by interest groups. The key empirical challenge is that school board composition is endogenously determined through the electoral process. To overcome this, we develop and implement a novel research design that exploits California's randomized assignment of the order that candidates appear on election ballots. The insight of our empirical strategy is that ballot order effects generate quasi-random variation in the elected school board's composition. This approach is made possible by a unique dataset that combines election information about California school board candidates with district-level data on education inputs and outcomes. The results reveal that educators on the school board causally increase teacher salaries and reduce district enrollment in charter schools relative to other board members. We do not find accompanying effects on student test scores. We interpret these findings as consistent with educators on school boards shifting bargaining in favor of teachers' unions.
    Keywords: school boards, education, ballot order effects, education production, expertise, independence
    JEL: I20 H75 J24
    Date: 2019–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12414&r=all
  3. By: Sylvie Démurger; Eric A. Hanushek; Lei Zhang
    Abstract: This paper estimates the return to an elite university education over a college graduate’s career using the CHIP 2013 data. We find a substantial premium for graduating from an elite Chinese university at job entry, but it declines quickly with labor market experience. This pattern is entirely driven by the young cohorts who enter college after the higher education expansion that started in 1999. This pattern is more pronounced in coastal provinces and in economically more developed regions, where individual skills are highly rewarded in the labor market. The initial elite premium and its subsequent decline is found just for males; individual skills are much more consistently rewarded for females than males. The results are consistent with employer learning, where employers pay workers based on more easily observable group characteristics at job entry but rely less on these over time when more accurate information about individual productivity becomes available.
    JEL: I20 I23 J2
    Date: 2019–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25955&r=all
  4. By: Rudakov, Victor (HSE); Figueiredo, Hugo (CIPES – Centre for Research in Higher Education Policies); Teixeira, Pedro N. (University of Porto); Roshchin, Sergey
    Abstract: This paper analyses the determinants and consequences of horizontal job-education mismatches, an increasingly relevant topic in debates about education and labour markets. This issue reflects the articulation of educational fields and occupations in the labour market. We evaluate the determinants of job-education mismatches and their impact on salaries of university graduates using comprehensive and representative national data for Russia. The study is based in graduates' assessment and statistical analyses. We find that one-third of graduates in Russia work in a job that is not related to their field of study. Moreover, graduates from fields that either generate more general human capital (social sciences, business, law, services) or where low pay is common (agriculture) are more likely to be in that situation. On the contrary, graduates from fields that generate specific human capital (e.g.: medicine) are considerably more likely to be matched. We find that mismatches negatively affect the earnings of university graduates and the higher the degree of mismatch, the higher the penalty for the mismatch. The study depicts that mismatch is penalized in the majority of fields except for low-paid ones (e.g.: agriculture).
    Keywords: job-education mismatch, education-occupation mismatch, horizontal mismatch, graduate salaries, labor market outcomes, human capital
    JEL: J24 J30 J31
    Date: 2019–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12407&r=all
  5. By: Thibaut Lamadon; Magne Mogstad; Bradley Setzler
    Abstract: The primary goal of our paper is to quantify the importance of imperfect competition in the U.S. labor market by estimating the size of rents earned by American firms and workers from ongoing employment relationships. To this end, we construct a matched employer-employee panel data set by combining the universe of U.S. business and worker tax records for the period 2001-2015. We describe several important features of the U.S. labor market, including the size of firm-specific wage premiums, the sorting of workers to firms, the production complementarities between high ability workers and productive firms, and the pass-through of firm and market shocks to workers' wages. Guided by these empirical results, we develop, identify and estimate an equilibrium model of the labor market with two-sided heterogeneity where workers view firms as imperfect substitutes because of heterogeneous preferences over non-wage job characteristics. The model allows us to draw inference about imperfect competition, compensating differentials and rent sharing. We also use the model to quantify the relevance of non-wage job characteristics and imperfect competition for inequality and tax policy, to assess the economic determinants of worker sorting, and to offer a unifying explanation of key empirical features of the U.S. labor market.
    JEL: J20 J30 J42
    Date: 2019–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25954&r=all
  6. By: Amalia R. Miller; Ragan Petrie; Carmit Segal
    Abstract: This paper develops a novel field experiment to test the implicit prediction of tournament theory that competition increases work time and can therefore contribute to the long work hours required in elite occupations. A majority of workers in the treatment without explicit financial incentives worked past the minimum time, but awarding a tournament prize increased work time and effort by over 80% and lowered costs of effort or output by over a third. Effort was similar with alternative (piece rate, low-prize tournament) bonuses. Men worked longer than women in the high-prize tournament, but for the same duration in other treatments.
    JEL: J16 J22 J33 J44 M52 M55
    Date: 2019–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25948&r=all
  7. By: Judd Kessler (University of Pennsylvania); Corinne Low (Columbia University); Colin D. Sullivan (University of Pennsylvania)
    Abstract: We introduce a new experimental paradigm to evaluate employer preferences, called Incentivized Resume Rating (IRR). Employers evaluate resumes they know to be hypothetical in order to be matched with real job seekers, preserving incentives while avoiding the deception necessary in audit studies. We deploy IRR with employers recruiting college seniors from a prestigious school, randomizing human capital characteristics and demographics of hypothetical candidates. We measure both employer preferences for candidates and employer beliefs about the likelihood candidates will accept job offers, avoiding a typical confound in audit studies. We discuss the costs, benefits, and future applications of this new methodology.
    Keywords: preferences, human capital, employment
    JEL: J24 J60 C93
    Date: 2019–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2019-039&r=all
  8. By: Willén, Alexander (Department of Economics and FAIR, Norwegian School of Economics)
    Abstract: Despite a global trend of wage decentralization over the past 30 years, we know very little about the labor market implications of decentralized wage determination. A main reason is the lack of exogenous variation in wage regulation linked to detailed outcome data. Using Swedish registry data and exploiting a reform that replaced the fixed national pay scale for teachers with individual wage bargaining, I overcome these issues and provide new evidence on the labor market effects of wage decentralization. The paper presents three sets of empirical results. First, I show that the reform significantly changed the wage structure of teachers. Second, I demonstrate that these wage changes did not affect teacher composition or student outcomes. Finally, I find support for a wage spillover effect to substitute occupations, providing evidence on the dynamics of wage determination across occupations. I argue that the wage spillover effect coupled with the compressed Swedish wage structure likely explains the lack of effects on teacher and student outcomes.
    Keywords: Wage regulation; Decentralization; Teacher Labor Market
    JEL: I20 I28 J31 J45
    Date: 2019–06–26
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2019_017&r=all
  9. By: A. Arrighetti; E. Bartoloni; F. Landini; C. Pollio
    Abstract: In most industrialized countries temporary and non-standard forms of employment (NSFE) have become a pervasive feature of the labor market. However, at the firm level, the diffusion of NSFE is less uniform than expected: while some firms exhibit high propensity to use NSFE, others make no use of it. Most conventional explanations of NSFE use (market uncertainty, production regimes, competitive pressure) fail to account for such heterogeneity. In this article the authors develop an alternative explanation that links the use of NSFE to firm-specific availability of managerial resources: whenever the latter are relatively scarce, firms make larger use of NSFE to reduce coordination and operating costs. Using a linked employer-employee panel of manufacturing firms from the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy), the authors provide empirical support for this hypothesis. The result is robust to different estimation strategies and controlling for alternative drivers of NSFE use. This novel finding suggests that, the use of NSFE has strong managerial roots: it allows firms to compensate for firm-specific managerial weaknesses.
    Keywords: non-standard employment, managerial resources, span of control, firm heterogeneity
    JEL: D22 L23 M51 M52 J41 J23
    Date: 2019
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:par:dipeco:2019-ep02&r=all
  10. By: Aleksandra Majchrowska (University of Lodz); Pawe³ Strawiñski (University of Warsaw)
    Abstract: The aim of the paper is to analyse regional diversification of minimum wage workers in the private sector in Poland and identify regions more vulnerable to minimum wage increases. Firstly, we examine the regional differences in the share of minimum wage workers. Secondly, we look at the structure of minimum wage earners. Finally, we use empirical approach analogous to Nestiæ et al. (2018) to identify low-wage sections and low-wage regions. We use individual data from the Structure of Earnings Survey in Poland. The research period covers 2008-2016. Six Polish regions are identified as the low-wage ones: five economically underdeveloped provinces of Eastern Poland and one region located centrally. These regions are characterised not only by high percentage of young people working for the minimum wage, but also high share of prime age and elderly minimum wage workers. High share of minimum wage earners is not only among low-qualified workers, but also among those with secondary education. These are employed in labour intensive, low-wage sections of the economy. What is particularly interesting is the fact that the results are fairly stable over time. To the best of our knowledge this is the first study of such kind not only for Poland but also for other countries.
    Keywords: minimum wage, minimum wage workers, low-wage sectors, low-wage regions, Poland
    JEL: R23 J31 J82
    Date: 2019–05–17
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ann:wpaper:2/2019&r=all
  11. By: Nyström, Kristina (The Ratio Institute)
    Abstract: Recruiting employees to an entrepreneurial venture is a challenging task. From the employee’s perspective, accepting a position in an entrepreneurial venture potentially implies considerable uncertainty. This paper provide a literature review and identifies research gaps related to labor mobility of employees into and out of entrepreneurial firms. Who works for an entrepreneur? What are the conditions under which the employees of entrepreneurial firms work? Additionally, labor mobility after an employee works for an entrepreneurial firm is discussed. In conclusion the quality of the jobs generated by entrepreneurial firms may be questionable (and still relatively unexplored in empirical research), but they are nevertheless important from a labor dynamics perspective. Better understanding about motives to work for an entrepreneur, issues related to job security beyond survival rates, and job quality may contribute to ease the recruitment problems that many entrepreneurial firms struggle with. Furthermore, the relevance and potential pros and cons of working for an entrepreneurial firm in future career paths (entrepreneur or employee) needs to be carefully addressed in future research.
    Keywords: entrepreneurship; labor mobility; employees in entrepreneurial firms
    JEL: J21 J62 L26
    Date: 2019–06–19
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ratioi:0324&r=all
  12. By: Eduardo Levy Yeyati; Martín Montané; Luca Sartorio
    Abstract: All around the world, countries are spending in Active Labor Market Policies (ALMPs) to improve the probability of workers´ finding a job and improving their earnings. It is important to assess the evidence included in rigorous evaluations to know what works in terms of impact and cost effectiveness. We present the first systematic review of 102 interventions evaluated exclusively through Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) for a total of 652 estimated impacts. We find that (i) a third of these estimates are positive and statistical significant (PPS) at conventional levels (ii) programs are more likely to yield positive results when GDP growth is higher and unemployment is lower; (iii) programs that aim at building human capital, such as vocational training, independent worker assistance and wage subsidies show significant positive impact, and (iv) program length, monetary incentives, individualized follow up and activity targeting are all key features in determining the effectiveness the interventions.
    Keywords: vocational training, labor policies, wage subsidies, randomized controlled trials.
    JEL: J21 J48 E24
    Date: 2019
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udt:wpgobi:wp_gob_2018_9&r=all
  13. By: Patrick Button
    Abstract: I estimate the impacts of recently-popular U.S. state film incentives on filming location, film industry employment, wages, and establishments, and spillover impacts on related industries. I compile a detailed database of incentives, matching this with TV series and feature film data from the Internet Movie Database (IMDb) and Studio System, and establishment and employment data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and Country Business Patterns. I compare these outcomes in states before and after they adopt incentives, relative to similar states that did not adopt incentives over the same time period (a panel difference-in-differences). I find that TV series filming increases by 6.3 to 55.4% (at most 1.50 additional TV series) after incentive adoption. However, there is no meaningful effect on feature films, and employment, wages, and establishments in the film industry and in related industries. These results show that the ability for tax incentives to affect business location decisions and economic development is mixed, suggesting that even with aggressive incentives, and "footloose" filming, incentives can have little impact.
    JEL: H25 H71 L82 R38 Z11
    Date: 2019–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25963&r=all
  14. By: Forslund, Anders (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy)
    Abstract: The Swedish employment rate is high in an international comparison and has been rising during recent decades. This pattern is especially pronounced among the elderly and women and reflects labour supply behaviour in these groups. The policy survey in this report suggests that the main drivers of the high and rising Swedish employment rates can be found in policies for early retirement, old-age pensions and taxes and benefits.
    Keywords: Employment; Labour supply; Labour demand; Employment policies
    JEL: H30 H40 H53 H55 I28 J20
    Date: 2019–06–14
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2019_015&r=all
  15. By: Berger, Eva M.; Hermes, Henning (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Koenig, Guenther; Schmidt, Felix; Schunk, Daniel
    Abstract: Existing evidence suggests that self-regulation plays an important role in the job search process and labor market reintegration of unemployed persons. We conduct a randomized natural field experiment embedded in an established labor market reactivation program to examine the causal effect of conducting self-regulation training on the job search behavior of long-term unemployed participants. Our treatment involves teaching a self-regulation strategy based on mental contrasting with implementation intentions (MCII). We find that the treatment has a positive effect on the quality of application documents as well as on the probability of participants submitting their documents on time. However, we do not find a positive effect on labor market reintegration—possibly due to the short-term horizon of the data. Because the intervention is very low cost, a rollout to other programs might have high individual and social rates of return.
    Keywords: active labor market policy; natural field experiment; job search behavior; unemployed; self-regulation; non-cognitive skills
    JEL: C93 J24 J64
    Date: 2019–06–18
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2019_013&r=all
  16. By: Hartmann, Dominik; Jara-Figueroa, Cristian; Kaltenberg, Mary; Gala, Paulo
    Abstract: Social stratification is determined not only by income, education, race, and gender, but also by an individual's job characteristics and their position in the industrial structure. Utilizing a dataset of 76.6 million Brazilian workers and methods from network science, we map the Brazilian Industry- Occupation Space (BIOS). The BIOS measures the extent to which 600 occupations co-appear in 585 industries, resulting in a complex network that shows how industrial-occupational communities provide important information on the network segmentation of society. Gender, race, education, and income are concentrated unevenly across the core-periphery structure of the BIOS. Moreover, we identify 28 industrial occupational communities from the BIOS network structure and report their contribution to total income inequality in Brazil. Finally, we quantify the relative poverty within these communities. In sum, the BIOS reveals how the coupling of industries and occupations contributes to mapping social stratification.
    Keywords: labor markets,social structure,stratification,economic sociology,wages,inequality
    JEL: J31 L0 Z13
    Date: 2019
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hohdps:062019&r=all
  17. By: Joshua Greenstein (Department of Economics, Hobart and William Smith Colleges)
    Abstract: I apply the precariat class schema developed by Standing to the US workforce from 1980-2018. I use a decomposition of inequality to show that this schema explains a substantial and growing portion of income inequality. I find that that the precariat, typified by unstable and benefit-free jobs, make up a large and growing share of the US work force, that the “old” working class shrank precipitously, and that the demographics of these two classes differ substantially. Finally, I illustrate that insight into these difficult to measure phenomena can be gained with an easily replicable class schema using plausible class definitions.
    Keywords: Economic class, precarious labor, inequality,dDistribution,structural change
    JEL: B59 D63 J21 J42 O17
    Date: 2019–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:1911&r=all
  18. By: Joy Buchanan (Brock School of Business, Samford University); Daniel Houser (Interdisciplinary Center for Economic Science and Department of Economics, George Mason University)
    Abstract: Many economies exhibit downward wage rigidity. Surveys of managers indicate that employers hold wages rigid because they believe morale will suffer after a wage cut. Otherwise, there is little evidence for how employers’ beliefs contribute to wage rigidity and whether those beliefs are accurate. Our design allows us to compare beliefs and effort rigorously. We demonstrate that effort falls after workers experience a wage cut and also that workers form reference points from wage contracts. Despite this partial confirmation of the morale theory as an explanation for wage rigidity, half of the employers in our experiment cut wages and lose money as a result. In a treatment where a recession is o↵set by nominal inflation, real wage cuts do not have a significant effect on effort.
    Date: 2019–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gms:wpaper:1072&r=all
  19. By: Richard Blundell (University College London); Monica Costa Dias (Institute for Fiscal Studies, Centre for Economics and Finance); David Goll (University College London); Costas Meghir (Yale University)
    Abstract: We investigate the role of training in reducing the gender wage gap using the UK-BHPS which contains detailed records of training. Using policy changes over an 18 year period we identify the impact of training and work experience on wages, earnings and employment. Based on a lifecycle model and using reforms as a source of exogenous variation we evaluate the role of formal training and experience in defining the evolution of wages and employment careers, conditional on education. Training is potentially important in compensating for the effects of children, especially for women who left education after completing high school.
    Keywords: gender gap, wage gap, Earnings
    JEL: J16 J31
    Date: 2019–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2019-040&r=all
  20. By: Luca Sandrini (Department of Economics and Management, University of Padova)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes how the incentives to produce and to adopt labor-augmenting innovation are linked to the wage rate. I design a model of a vertically related industry, where downstream manufacturers can choose between a standard low-quality capital input or a superior one produced by an upstream innovator. High-quality capital input allows adopting firms to have a higher labor productivity. I show that there is an inverted-U shaped relationship between the wage rate and the incentive to invest in innovation based on two opposite forces: a positive cost-reducing effect and a negative output contraction effect. Finally, this paper provides some support for the introduction of a minimum wage, which is found able to increase both the investments in innovative activities and the social welfare.
    Keywords: labor-augmenting innovation, vertical relation, oligopoly, minimum wage
    JEL: J31 L13 O31
    Date: 2019–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pad:wpaper:0232&r=all
  21. By: Setzer, Ralph; Stieglitz, Moritz
    Abstract: We explore the interaction between labour market reforms and financial frictions. Our study combines a new cross-country reform database on labour market reforms with matched firm-bank data for nine euro area countries over the period 1999 to 2013. While we find that labour market reforms are overall effective in increasing employment, restricted access to bank credit can undo up to half of long-term employment gains at the firm-level. Entrepreneurs without sufficient access to credit cannot reap the full benefits of more flexible employment regulation.
    Keywords: labour market reforms,bank stress,employment protection,unemployment insurance
    JEL: G21 J21 J80 K31
    Date: 2019
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:152019&r=all
  22. By: Arntz, Melanie; Gregory, Terry; Zierahn, Ulrich
    Abstract: Computing power continues to grow at an enormous rate. Simultaneously, more and better data is increasingly available and Machine Learning methods have seen significant breakthroughs in the recent past. All this pushes further the boundary of what machines can do. Nowadays increasingly complex tasks are automatable at a precision which seemed infeasible only few years ago. The examples range from voice and image recognition, playing Go, to self-driving vehicles. Machines are able to perform more and more manual and also cognitive tasks that previously only humans could do. As a result of these developments, some argue that large shares of jobs are "at risk of automation", spurring public fears of massive job-losses and technological unemployment. This chapter discusses how new digital technologies might affect the labor market in the near future. First, the chapter discusses estimates of automation potentials, showing that many estimates are severely upward biased because they ignore that workers in seemingly automatable occupations already take over hard-to-automate tasks. Secondly, it highlights that these numbers only refer to what theoretically could be automated and that this must not be equated with job-losses or employment effects - a mistake that is done often in the public debate. Thirdly, the chapter develops scenarios on how digitalization is likely to affect the German labor market in the next five years and derives implications for policy makers on how to shape the future of work. Germany is an interesting case to study, as it is a developed country at the technological frontier. In particular, the main challenge will not be the number, but the structure of jobs and the corresponding need for supply side adjustments to meet the shift in demand both within and between occupations and sectors.
    Keywords: Automation,Digitalization,Unemployment,Inequality
    JEL: J23 J31 O33
    Date: 2019
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:19024&r=all
  23. By: Bhalotra, Sonia (University of Essex); Clarke, Damian (Universidad de Santiago de Chile); Mühlrad, Hanna (Lund University); Palme, Mårten (Stockholm University)
    Abstract: In this study we examine the passage of a reform to in-vitro fertilization (IVF) procedures in Sweden in 2003. Following publication of medical evidence showing that pregnancy success rates could be maintained using single rather than multiple embryo transfers, the single embryo transfer (SET) was mandated as the default IVF procedure. Using linked registry data for the period 1998-2007, we find that the SET reform was associated with a precipitous drop in the share of multiple births of 63%. This narrowed differences in health between IVF and non-IVF births by 53%, and differences in the labor market outcomes of mothers three years after birth by 85%. For first time mothers, it also narrowed the gap in maternal health between IVF and non-IVF births by 36%. Our findings imply that more widespread adoption of SET could lead to massive gains, reducing hospitalization costs and the foregone income of mothers and improving the long-run socioeconomic outcomes of children. This is important given that the share of IVF facilitated births exceeds 3% in several industrialized countries and is on the rise.
    Keywords: IVF; Fertility; Maternal health; Neonatal health; Career penalty; Human capital formation
    JEL: I11 I12 I38 J13 J24
    Date: 2019–06–25
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1289&r=all
  24. By: Isaure Delaporte
    Abstract: The objective of this paper is twofold: first, to determine the immigrants’ ethnic identity, i.e. the degree of identification to the culture and society of the country of origin and the host country and second, to investigate the impact of ethnic identity on the immigrants’ employment outcomes. Using rich survey data from France and relying on a polychoric principal component analysis, this paper proposes two richer measures of ethnic identity than the ones used in the literature, namely: i) the degree of commitment to the origin country culture and ii) the extent to which the individual holds multiple identities. The paper investigates the impact of the ethnic identity measures on the employment outcomes of immigrants in France. The results show that having multiple identities improves the employment outcomes of the migrants and contribute to help design effective post-immigration policies.
    Keywords: ethnic identity, immigration, employment, polychoric principal component analysis
    JEL: J15 J21 J71 Z13
    Date: 2019
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7651&r=all
  25. By: John Bound; Breno Braga; Gaurav Khanna; Sarah Turner
    Abstract: Over the past few decades, public universities have faced significant declines in state funding per student. We investigate whether these declines affected the educational and research outcomes of these schools. We present evidence that declining funding induced public universities to shift toward tuition as their primary source of revenue. Selective research universities enrolled more out-of-state and international students who pay full fare and increased in-state tuitions, moderating impacts on expenditures. Public universities outside the research sector had fewer options to replace stagnating state appropriations, requiring diminished expenditures and increased in-state tuitions. The evidence we present suggests that the cuts negatively affected degree attainment at the undergraduate and graduate levels. While the evidence on research is mixed, there are indications that the impact of spending declines on research outcomes may become evident over a longer time period
    JEL: I25 J24 O3
    Date: 2019–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25945&r=all

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