nep-lma New Economics Papers
on Labor Markets - Supply, Demand, and Wages
Issue of 2018‒09‒24
eleven papers chosen by
Joseph Marchand
University of Alberta

  1. Education and Labor Market Consequences of Student Protests in Late 1970s and the Subsequent Military Coup in Turkey By Ozturk, Ahmet; Tumen, Semih
  2. Who Benefits from Local Oil and Gas Employment? Labor Market Composition in the Oil and Gas Industry in Texas By Cai, Zhengyu; Maguire, Karen; Winters, John V.
  3. Demography, Unemployment, Automation, and Digitalization: Implications for the Creation of (Decent) Jobs, 2010–2030 By Bloom, David E.; McKenna, Matthew J.; Prettner, Klaus
  4. The Evolution of the Intrahousehold Division of Labor in a Market Development Context– A Longitudinal Study of Rural China By He, Yong
  5. Employment Adjustments Following Rises and Reductions in Minimum Wages: New Insights from a Survey Experiment By Bossler, Mario; Oberfichtner, Michael; Schnabel, Claus
  6. Occupational Classifications: A Machine Learning Approach By Ikudo, Akina; Lane, Julia; Staudt, Joseph; Weinberg, Bruce A.
  7. Country of Origin, Earnings Convergence, and Human Capital Investment: A New Method for the Analysis of U.S. Immigrant Economic Assimilation By Duleep, Harriet; Liu, Xingfei; Regets, Mark
  8. Transitions From Career Employment Among Public- and Private-Sector Workers By Joseph F. Quinn; Kevin E. Cahill; Michael D. Giandrea
  9. Measuring the Gig Economy: Current Knowledge and Open Issues By Katharine G. Abraham; John C. Haltiwanger; Kristin Sandusky; James R. Spletzer
  10. The Impact of Chief Diversity Officers on Diverse Faculty Hiring By Steven W. Bradley; James R. Garven; Wilson W. Law; James E. West
  11. "Black Employment Trends since the Great Recession" By Thomas Masterson

  1. By: Ozturk, Ahmet (Turkish Ministry of Development); Tumen, Semih (TED University)
    Abstract: 1970s witnessed violent, widespread, and highly-politicized student protests in Turkey. Small protests turned into bloody street clashes, the death toll exceeded 5,000, and a military coup came in - which resulted in mass arrests. Universities were at the center of the conflict and violence. We present a comprehensive empirical analysis of the education and labor market consequences of this political turmoil on cohorts directly exposed to educational disruptions. First, we document that the number of new admissions and graduates in post-secondary education declined significantly due to the turmoil. We report the decline in post-secondary graduation ratio to be around 6.6-7 percentage points for the exposed individuals. Second, we estimate a counterfactual wage distribution for the exposed cohorts using semi-parametric methods and check whether the turmoil affected the wage and occupation distributions. We find that the decline in educational attainment due to the turmoil pushed the exposed population toward medium- and low-income occupations, and compressed their wages toward the minimum wage. Finally, we use the unexpected decline in educational attainment as an IV to estimate returns to schooling. Our IV estimates suggest that the returns to an additional year of schooling range between 11.6-14 percent for men. In a heterogeneous-outcome framework, these IV estimates can be interpreted as the average causal effect of an additional year of schooling in post-secondary education.
    Keywords: student protests, political turmoil, returns to schooling, higher education, occupational shift
    JEL: D74 J21 J31
    Date: 2018–08
  2. By: Cai, Zhengyu; Maguire, Karen; Winters, John V.
    Abstract: This paper examines local labor market outcomes from an oil and gas boom. We examine two main outcomes across gender, race, and ethnicity: the probability of employment in the oil and gas industry and the log wages of workers employed outside the oil and gas industry. We find that men and women both gain employment in the oil and gas industry during booms, but such gains are much larger for men and are largest for black and Hispanic men. We also find positive income spillovers for workers in other industries that are similar in magnitude across demographic groups.
    Keywords: Oil,Natural Gas,Employment,Gender,Race,Energy
    JEL: J20 Q33 Q40 R10
    Date: 2018
  3. By: Bloom, David E. (Harvard University); McKenna, Matthew J. (Data for Decisions LCC); Prettner, Klaus (University of Hohenheim)
    Abstract: Globally, an estimated 734 million jobs will be required between 2010 and 2030 to accommodate recent and ongoing demographic shifts, account for plausible changes in labour force participation rates, and achieve target unemployment rates of at or below 4 percent for adults and at or below 8 percent for youth. The facts that i) most new jobs will be required in countries where "decent" jobs are less prevalent and ii) workers in many occupations are increasingly subject to risks of automation further compound the challenge of job creation, which is already quite sizable in historical perspective. Failure to create the jobs that are needed through 2030 would put currently operative social security systems under pressure and undermine efforts to guarantee the national social protection floors enshrined in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
    Keywords: demography, unemployment, job creation, automation, digitalization
    JEL: J11 J20 J24
    Date: 2018–08
  4. By: He, Yong
    Abstract: With a panel sample of more than 3000 rural Chinese households surveyed over 21 years, this study estimates the evolution of relative roles of social status and human capital in the intrahousehold division of labor under the context of a rapid market development. With the guidance of a theoretical framework, it is found that: 1) market development enhanced the status of women, and changed the traditional rule of “women indoors and men outdoors”; 2) market development allocated more young labor to outward wage-earning jobs and left a higher share of the elderly and juvenile in land-based semi-market activities and chores, indicating an increasing importance of human capital over family status; 3) market enlargement relaxed the entrance requirements for labor market in terms of education level, age and height.
    Keywords: intrahousehold division of labor, human capital, rural China, family status, market development, chores.
    JEL: D13 J22 O12
    Date: 2018
  5. By: Bossler, Mario (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Oberfichtner, Michael (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Schnabel, Claus (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg)
    Abstract: The effects of large minimum wage increases, like those planned in the UK and in some US states, are still unknown. We conduct a survey experiment that randomly assigns increases or decreases in minimum wages to about 6,000 establishments in Germany and asks the personnel managers about their expectations concerning employment adjustments. We find that employment reacts asymmetrically to positive and negative changes in minimum wages. The larger the increase in the minimum wage is, the larger the expected reduction in employment. Employment adjustments are more pronounced in those industries and plants which are more strongly affected by the current minimum wage and in those plants that have neither collective agreements nor a works council. In contrast, employment is not found to increase if the minimum wage is reduced by about 10 percent. This mainly reflects that plants with works councils and collective agreements would not cut wages.
    Keywords: minimum wage, wage cuts, establishment survey, Germany
    JEL: J31 J23 D22
    Date: 2018–08
  6. By: Ikudo, Akina (University of California, Los Angeles); Lane, Julia (New York University); Staudt, Joseph (U.S. Census Bureau); Weinberg, Bruce A. (Ohio State University)
    Abstract: Characterizing the work that people do on their jobs is a longstanding and core issue in labor economics. Traditionally, classification has been done manually. If it were possible to combine new computational tools and administrative wage records to generate an automated crosswalk between job titles and occupations, millions of dollars could be saved in labor costs, data processing could be sped up, data could become more consistent, and it might be possible to generate, without a lag, current information about the changing occupational composition of the labor market. This paper examines the potential to assign occupations to job titles contained in administrative data using automated, machine-learning approaches. We use a new extraordinarily rich and detailed set of data on transactional HR records of large firms (universities) in a relatively narrowly defined industry (public institutions of higher education) to identify the potential for machine-learning approaches to classify occupations.
    Keywords: UMETRICS, occupational classifications, machine learning, administrative data, transaction data
    JEL: J0 J21 J24
    Date: 2018–08
  7. By: Duleep, Harriet; Liu, Xingfei; Regets, Mark
    Abstract: The initial earnings of U.S. immigrants vary enormously by country of origin. Via three interrelated analyses, we show earnings convergence across source countries with time in the United States. Human-capital theory plausibly explains the inverse relationship between initial earnings and earnings growth rates: the good fit between data and theory suggests that variation in initial skill transferability—not variation in the “quality” of human capital—underlies variation in initial earnings. A new method of testing for emigration bias confirms that selective emigration does not cause the convergence. Functional form and sample selections embedded in most recent analyses of immigrant economic assimilation bias downwards the earnings growth of post-1965 U.S. immigrants. When both functional-form and sample-selection constraints are lifted, a dramatically different picture of the economic assimilation of U.S. immigrants emerges.
    Keywords: immigrant economic assimilation,human capital investment,country of origin,immigrant earnings convergence,earnings growth,unbiased estimation
    JEL: J1 J2 J3 C1
    Date: 2018
  8. By: Joseph F. Quinn; Kevin E. Cahill; Michael D. Giandrea
    Abstract: Do the retirement patterns of public-sector workers differ from those in the private sector? Most private-sector workers today face a do-it-yourself retirement income landscape characterized by an exposure to market forces through defined-contribution pension plans and private saving, and the risk of financial insecurity later in life. Public-sector workers, in contrast, are typically covered by defined-benefit pension plans that both encourage retirement at relatively young ages and offer financial security at older ages. As a result, the consequences of private- and public-sector workers’ retirement decisions could differ in important ways. For workers generally, and for private-sector workers in particular, a focus among researchers and policymakers has been the importance of continued work later in life for improving financial security at older ages. Such concerns might be of less consequence for public-sector workers due to the prevalence of defined-benefit pensions. Public-sector workers’ departures from the labor force might also differ from those in the private sector, all else equal, because of the age-specific incentives within their defined-benefit plans. Despite these important differences, the private-public distinction has received relatively little attention in the retirement literature. Our paper examines how private- and public-sector workers transition from career employment to complete labor force withdrawal, with a focus on the role of bridge employment, phased retirement, and re-entry. We identify the prevalence and determinants of each pathway to retirement using longitudinal data on four cohorts of private- and public-sector career older workers from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Our findings suggest that the prevalence of work after leaving career employment among public-sector workers resembles that of private-sector workers, although with a higher prevalence of part-time bridge employment, a result that has important implications for public policy as the pace of societal aging accelerates.
    JEL: H55 J14 J26 J32
    Date: 2018–09
  9. By: Katharine G. Abraham; John C. Haltiwanger; Kristin Sandusky; James R. Spletzer
    Abstract: The rise of the “gig economy” has attracted wide attention from both scholars and the popular media. Much of this attention has been devoted to jobs mediated through various online platforms. While non-traditional work arrangements have been a perennial subject of debate and study, the perception that new technology is producing an accelerated pace of change in the organization of work has fueled a resurgence of interest in how such changes may be affecting both workers and firms. This paper provides a typology of work arrangements and reviews how different arrangements, and especially gig activity, are captured in existing data. A challenge for understanding recent trends is that household survey and administrative data paint a different picture, with the former showing little evidence of the growth in self-employment that would be implied by a surge in gig activity and the latter providing evidence of considerable recent growth. An examination of matched individual-level survey and administrative records shows that a large and growing fraction of those with self-employment activity in administrative data have no such activity recorded in household survey data. The share of those with self-employment activity in household survey data but not administrative data is smaller and has not grown. Promising avenues for improving the measurement of self-employment activity include the addition of more probing questions to household survey questionnaires and the development of integrated data sets that combine survey, administrative and, potentially, private data.
    JEL: J40
    Date: 2018–08
  10. By: Steven W. Bradley; James R. Garven; Wilson W. Law; James E. West
    Abstract: As the American college student population has become more diverse, the goal of hiring a more diverse faculty has received increased attention in higher education. A signal of institutional commitment to faculty diversity often includes the hiring of an executive level chief diversity officer (CDO). To examine the effects of a CDO in a broad panel data context, we combine unique data on the initial hiring of a CDO with publicly available faculty and administrator hiring data by race and ethnicity from 2001 to 2016 for four-year or higher U.S. universities categorized as Carnegie R1, R2, or M1 institutions with student populations of 4,000 or more. We are unable to find significant statistical evidence that preexisting growth in diversity for underrepresented racial/ethnic minority groups is affected by the hiring of an executive level diversity officer for new tenure and non-tenure track hires, faculty hired with tenure, or for university administrator hires.
    JEL: I23 I28 J78
    Date: 2018–08
  11. By: Thomas Masterson
    Abstract: The Great Recession had a devastating impact on labor force participation and employment. This impact was not unlike other recessions, except in size. The recovery, however, has been unusual not so much for its sluggishness but for the unusual pattern of recovery in employment by race. The black employment-population ratio has increased since bottoming out in 2010, while the white employment-population ratio has remained flat. This paper examines trends in labor force participation and employment by race, sex, and age and determines that the explanation is a combination of an aging white population and an increase in labor force participation among younger black people. It estimates the likelihood of labor force participation and employment among young men and women to control for confounding factors (such as changes in educational characteristics) and decomposes the gaps among groups and the changes over time in labor force participation using a Oaxaca-Blinder-like technique for nonlinear estimations. Findings indicate that much smaller negative impacts of characteristics and greater returns to characteristics among young black men and women than among young white men and women explain the observed trends.
    Keywords: Racial Disparities; Labor Force Participation; Employment; United States
    JEL: J11 J21 J71
    Date: 2018–09

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