|
on Law and Economics |
| By: | Hanemaaijer, Kyra (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Ketel, Nadine (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Marie, Olivier (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | When decision-makers overemphasize salient features under limited attention, biased decisions can result in settings in which decisions should be unbiased. We exploit a sudden shock in the salience of individuals of Moroccan descent in the Netherlands to test the vulnerability of decisions of various actors in the Dutch criminal justice system to biases. Using high-quality data on decisions made from arrest through appeal in the Dutch CJS, we find that the sentence length of individuals of Moroccan descent convicted of a crime increased by 79% after the shock. Heterogeneity analyses indicate that more-experienced judges mitigate this effect. Finally, we find suggestive evidence of longer-term costs for defendants of Moroccan descent in that their labor income drops by 40% over the four years following their judgment of conviction. |
| Keywords: | salience, minority, criminal justice system, Netherlands |
| JEL: | J15 K42 D83 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17396 |
| By: | Diego De la Fuente (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer BN19RH) |
| Abstract: | This research studies the connection between income and criminal engagement. Focusing on the impact of remittance transfers on diverse categories of crime, the study concentrates on Mexico, a country characterized by high levels of remittances and unique crime dynamics. The estimates show through a combination of methods and using a quarterly panel data of municipalities for the period of 2013 to 2023- that higher income transfers have a significant reducing effect on violent crime, but also an inducing effect on property theft. The results also show that the effect of the income transfer increases with the transfer size and when accompanied with higher levels of social deprivation within the mu-nicipality. The analysis aims to offer lessons for scholars and policymakers on the relationship between welfare outside crime and crime participation. |
| Keywords: | Crime, Income transfers, Remittances |
| JEL: | K42 J4 F24 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:1024 |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Structural presumptions in antitrust law refer to the concept that certain market structures, including high market shares and concentration, may presumptively harm competition and consumers. Once established by competition authorities or courts, the burden of proof typically shifts to the firms which need to rebut these presumptions. The use of structural presumption in antitrust enforcement continues to animate debates among competition authorities, academics and practitioners, reflecting different views on their relevance, application and accuracy when assessing potential anticompetitive practices. This paper explores how the use of structural presumptions may enable competition authorities to simplify complex issues related to market analysis and accelerate the competitive process, while maintaining the required degree of legal certainty to achieve the desired outcome. These mechanisms can ultimately make competition enforcement more predictable, transparent and efficient. Yet their use may also increase potential error costs, requiring competition authorities to consider trade-offs between different enforcement strategies (e.g. certainty, administrability and efficiency in decision-making versus accuracy). This paper also analyses the balancing of structural presumptions against detailed economic analysis which can be crucial to ensure fair and effective antitrust enforcement. |
| Date: | 2024–11–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:dafaac:317-en |
| By: | Diego A. Martin (Harvard's Growth Lab); Dario A. Romero |
| Abstract: | Did the COVID-19 pandemic create an opportunity to earn population control through illegal violence? We argue that criminal groups in Colombia portray as de facto police by using mass killings to reduce the COVID-19 outbreak. They used massacres as a threat to enforce social distance measures in places they considered worth decreasing mobility. Our results from an Augmented Synthetic Control Method model estimated that commuting to parks fell 20% more in areas with massacres than in places without mass killings. In addition, we do not find a decline in mobility to workplaces and COVID-19 deaths after the first mass killing. These findings are congruent with the hypothesis that illegal armed groups used fear to enforce mobility restrictions without hurting economic activities and their sources of revenue. However, violence slightly impacted the virus’ spread. Treated areas had a decline of 35 cases per 100, 000 inhabitants four months after the first massacre. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Social Distance, Lockdowns, Massacres, Governance |
| JEL: | H75 D74 K42 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:220 |
| By: | Alex Albright |
| Abstract: | Algorithms are intended to improve human decisions with data-driven predictions. However, algorithms provide more than just predictions to decision-makers—they often provide explicit recommendations. In this paper, I demonstrate these algorithmic recommendations have significant independent effects on human decisions. I leverage a natural experiment in which algorithmic recommendations were given to bail judges in some cases but not others. Lenient recommendations increased lenient bail decisions by 40% for marginal cases. The results are consistent with algorithmic recommendations making visible mistakes, such as violent rearrest, less costly to judges by providing them reputational cover. In this way, algorithms can affect human decisions by changing incentives, in addition to informing predictions. |
| Keywords: | Decision-making; algorithm; Algorithmic recommendation; Bail; Criminal justice |
| JEL: | D91 K42 |
| Date: | 2024–11–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmoi:99090 |
| By: | Amirapu, Amrit (University of Kent); Asadullah, Niaz (University of Reading); Wahhaj, Zaki (King's College London) |
| Abstract: | In developing countries, one in four girls is married before turning 18, with adverse consequences for themselves and their children. In this paper, we investigate whether laws can affect attitudes and behaviour towards child marriage –in a context in which the laws are not strictly enforced. We do so by developing a simple theoretical model of marriage age choice which allows us to account for several potential mechanisms through which a change in the formal law may affect attitudes and behaviour even when the law is not enforced. We also implement a randomised video-based information intervention that aimed to accelerate knowledge transmission about a new child marriage law in Bangladesh that introduced harsher punishments for facilitating early marriage. Surveys conducted immediately after the intervention document changes in respondents' attitudes while follow-up surveys conducted several months later document an increase in early marriage among treated households if the father or family elders also received the information. The findings allow us to distinguish between several competing theoretical channels underlying the effect of legal change and highlight the risk of backlash against laws that contradict traditional norms and practices. |
| Keywords: | age of marriage, social norms, formal institutions, legal change |
| JEL: | J12 J16 K36 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17410 |
| By: | Paradela-López, Miguel; Antón, José-Ignacio |
| Abstract: | Violence due to organised crime takes a heavy social and economic toll on many Latin America and the Caribbean countries. In less than a decade, El Salvador, sadly known for the activities of criminal gangs, went from having one the highest homicide rates in the world to being the second safest country in the Americas after Canada. Using a regression discontinuity in time design, we find that the two flagship extraordinarily tough criminal policies of Nayib Bukele's government against criminal gangs diminished the homicide rate per 100, 000 inhabitants by about 45 points between 2019 and 2024, accounting for almost 90% of the reduction over the period analysed. |
| Date: | 2024–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:hwjsv |
| By: | Burgstaller, Lilith; Pfeil, Katharina |
| Abstract: | Does whistleblowing deter rule violations when such violations are believed to be common? We examine this question in an online experiment about collaborative tax evasion. We vary whether subjects can blow the whistle on their partner in crime and introduce a high-evasion environment by framing the social norm such that evasion is expected to be common. Our findings show that giving partners in crime the option to blow the whistle on their partner does not significantly deter collaborative tax evasion. Collaborative tax evasion significantly increases in a high-evasion environment compared to an unspecified norm environment, even when whistleblowing is possible. This finding underlines that the norm environment is crucial for evasion and corroborates that whistleblowing is ineffective when both partners benefit from collaborative evasion. We offer several explanations for these findings. |
| Keywords: | Collaborative Tax Evasion, Social Norm, Peer Reporting, Whistleblowing, Online Experiment |
| JEL: | H26 E26 O17 D91 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:aluord:305289 |
| By: | Jerg Gutmann; Pascal Langer; Matthias Neuenkirch |
| Abstract: | Political leaders matter, but statistical evidence for their relevance in international politics is scarce. We estimate panel probit models with data for the period 1970 to 2004 and sender-year and dyad fixed effects to evaluate whether more similar leaders are less likely to sanction each other. We find that higher leader similarity significantly reduces the likelihood of sanction imposition. The effect is especially pronounced when UN and EU sanctions are excluded, that is, when focusing on sanctions imposed through unilateral political decisions. In this case, going from no correlation to perfect correlation in the characteristics of the leader pair lowers the likelihood of sanctions by 5.7 pp. Moreover, leader similarity seems to matter especially for sanctions aimed at democratic change or human rights improvements, where political leaders are expected to enjoy more discretion. |
| Keywords: | International sanctions, Leader similarity, Political leaders |
| JEL: | D70 F51 K33 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trr:wpaper:202411 |
| By: | Higgs, James; Flowerday, Stephen |
| Abstract: | The video game market is forecasted to be valued at $321.6 billion by 2027. Today, younger generations increasingly prefer spending their leisurely time playing online video games. Beyond providing a leisurely – and often competitive – activity to the bulk of its user base, online video games provide cybercriminals with an environment that is free from the reigns of legal enforcement. More specifically, with the growing popularity and uptake of the microtransaction business model, money launderers are provided with novel channels to move their illicitly gained funds. A continuously expanding body of evidence underscores that money laundering is occurring through online video games. Foremost, cybercriminals are attracted to the anonymity and global reach offered by online video games with few to no controls currently in place to disrupt laundering processes. Furthermore, regulations are struggling to keep pace with the latest money laundering strategies employed by cybercriminals. This paper explores and discusses money laundering in the context of online video games. Core vulnerabilities enabling money laundering to occur through online video games are identified. Security controls to reduce the scale of laundering are proposed. |
| Date: | 2024–11–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:fyv6c |