nep-law New Economics Papers
on Law and Economics
Issue of 2022‒10‒31
thirteen papers chosen by
Eve-Angeline Lambert, Université de Lorraine

  1. Fueling Organized Crime: The Mexican War on Drugs and Oil Thefts By Giacomo Battiston; Gianmarco Daniele; Marco Le Moglie; Paolo Pinotti
  2. Two For One By Svetozara Petkova; Runyararo Gladys Senderayi
  3. How communication makes the difference between a cartel and tacit collusion: a machine learning approach By Maximilian Andres; Lisa Bruttel; Jana Friedrichsen
  4. Legalising Recreational Cannabis Sativa as forex cash cow for Malawi – Focussing on what buyer wants By Phiri Kampanje, Brian
  5. Crime By Stephen Machin
  6. The formula for interpreting the transaction content: private-legal aspects of legal enforcement By Anatoliy Kostruba
  7. Is Crime a Barrier Against Financial Development? By Abhyankar, Atharva
  8. Covid-19: the impact on local crime rates By Tom Kirchmaier; Carmen Villa-Llera
  9. Screening Adaptive Cartels By Juan Ortner; Sylvain Chassang; Jun Nakabayashi; Kei Kawai
  10. The Legal Profile of Russian Eurobonds : Engineered against Speed By Farah Yacoub,Juan Pablo
  11. Legal options for a green golden rule in the European Union’s fiscal framework By Zsolt Darvas
  12. How Urban Land Titling and Registry Reform Affect Land and Credit Markets : Evidencefrom Lesotho By Deininger,Klaus W.; Ali,Daniel Ayalew
  13. Comprehensive empirical assessment of nuclear power risks By Ali Ayoub; Didier Sornette

  1. By: Giacomo Battiston (University of Padova); Gianmarco Daniele (University of Milan); Marco Le Moglie (Catholic University of Milan); Paolo Pinotti (Bocconi University)
    Abstract: We show that the War on Drugs launched by the Mexican President Felipe Calderón in 2007 pushed drug cartels into large-scale oil thefts. Municipalities that the presidential candidate’s party barely won at the local elections in 2007-2009 exhibit a larger increase in illegal oil taps over the following years, compared to municipalities in which the presidential candidate’s party barely lost the elections. Challenger cartels in the drug market leapfrog incumbent drug cartels when entering the new illegal activity, analogous to what is typically observed in legal markets. Since challengers and incumbents specialize in different criminal sectors, the expansion of challengers does not increase violence in municipalities traversed by oil pipelines. At the same time, the municipalities traversed by a pipeline witness a decrease in schooling rates.
    Keywords: organized crime, war on drugs, oil thefts, leapfrogging
    JEL: K42 L20
    Date: 2022–09
  2. By: Svetozara Petkova; Runyararo Gladys Senderayi
    Keywords: Law and Development - Judicial System Reform Law and Development - Justice for the Poor Law and Development - Law and Justice Institutions Private Sector Development - Business Environment Private Sector Development - Small and Medium Size Enterprises
    Date: 2020–12
  3. By: Maximilian Andres (University of Potsdam); Lisa Bruttel (University of Potsdam); Jana Friedrichsen (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, WZB Berlin Social Science Center, DIW Berlin)
    Abstract: This paper sheds new light on the role of communication for cartel formation. Using machine learning to evaluate free-form chat communication among firms in a laboratory experiment, we identify typical communication patterns for both explicit cartel formation and indirect attempts to collude tacitly. We document that firms are less likely to communicate explicitly about price fixing and more likely to use indirect messages when sanctioning institutions are present. This effect of sanctions on communication reinforces the direct cartel-deterring effect of sanctions as collusion is more difficult to reach and sustain without an explicit agreement. Indirect messages have no, or even a negative, effect on prices.
    Keywords: cartel, collusion, communication, machine learning, experiment
    JEL: C92 D43 L41
    Date: 2022–10
  4. By: Phiri Kampanje, Brian
    Abstract: Any discussions surrounding legalisation of recreational cannabis is a taboo in Malawi in view of stiff penalties under the Dangerous Drugs Act 1956 as well as strong roots of religious beliefs against it. This is despite the country paying a blind eye to recreational cannabis tourism for its renowned local cannabis strains known across the global as Malawi Gold. This paper argues that Malawi has a tough choice on whether to decriminalise the industry to earn at least half a billion USD annually or let the black market continue to thrive to the detriment of Malawians’ well-being.
    Keywords: Cannabis; Malawi; Cash cow; Forex
    JEL: K00 K23 K40 K42
    Date: 2022–08–15
  5. By: Stephen Machin
    Abstract: What can economics tell us about crime? Economists have discovered that young people who leave school during a recession are more likely to end up in prison than those who enter the labour market when the economy is buoyant. They have also shown that people with higher levels of education are less likely to commit crime. How do economists untangle the interactions between individuals, the economy and crime?
    Keywords: crime, crime control, policing, justice, labour markets, employment, unemployment, wages, education, recessions, domestic abuse, domestic violence, alcohol, incentives
    Date: 2022–08–01
  6. By: Anatoliy Kostruba (Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National University)
    Abstract: We refer to interpretation as the process of interpreting the subject of knowledge through disclosing its essential features. The result of such process is the subjective formation of certain opinions, content awareness of the relevant subject. It is clear from the above that in the process of interpretation many tools are needed to establish the objective content of legal rules. Techniques (methods) of interpretation are linguistic, systematic, historical, functional, teleological, grammatical and logical interpretation, etc. In the field of private law, the legal formalisation of social connections between persons shall be effected by means of causal-legal (individual) regulation. The agreement, as a means of causal-legal regulation of relations, also requires interpretation of its content. The transaction content interpretation shall include the differentiation and unity of general requirements for the interpretation of legal rules and peculiarities of individual legal regulation of social relations. Ordinary ways of interpreting legal rules shall constitute one segment of transaction content interpretation. The second is the transaction content interpretation on the basis of the formula of interpretation contra proferentem, a fortiori, as well as the equivalent consideration formula, which requires its comprehensive application in order to establish the real intention of the parties under conditions of rationality and goodwill.
    Keywords: interpretation of legal rules,interpretation of transactions,content of the agreement,logical interpretation,grammatical interpretation,interpretation of the agreement,contra proferentem,a fortiori,equivalent consideration formula.,: interpretation of legal rules
    Date: 2021–11–21
  7. By: Abhyankar, Atharva
    Abstract: Using cross-country data, this paper analyzes the relationship between crime rates and their effects on financial development at the national level. To do this, I take several financial variables and compare them with three main crime variables- homicide, fraud, and corruption- and plot significant correlations to analyze trends. The results show that while fraud and corruption have no adverse effects on financial development variables, they are positively correlated with several of them, and intentional homicide is quite detrimental to countries’ financial development.
    Keywords: Financial development; crime; cross-country data
    JEL: G10 G20 K00
    Date: 2022–09–21
  8. By: Tom Kirchmaier; Carmen Villa-Llera
    Abstract: The pandemic changed the way people worked, shopped, socialised and travelled. Patterns of crime and policing changed too. Shubhangi Agrawal, Tom Kirchmaier and Carmen Villa-Llera reveal how different parts of the UK are faring.
    Keywords: Covid-19, Crime
    Date: 2022–06–21
  9. By: Juan Ortner (Boston University); Sylvain Chassang (New York University); Jun Nakabayashi (Kindai University); Kei Kawai (U.C. Berkeley)
    Abstract: We propose an equilibrium theory of data-driven antitrust oversight in which regulators launch investigations on the basis of suspicious bidding patterns and cartels can adapt to the statistical screens used by regulators. We emphasize the use of asymptotically safe tests, i.e. tests that are passed with probability approaching one by competitive firms, regardless of the underlying economic environment. Our main result establishes that screening for collusion with safe tests is a robust improvement over laissez-faire. Safe tests do not create new collusive equilibria, and do not hurt competitive industries. In addition, safe tests can have strict bite, including unraveling all collusive equilibria in some settings. We provide evidence that cartel adaptation to regulatory oversight is a real concern.
    Keywords: collusion, auctions, procurement, antitrust
    JEL: D44 D43
  10. By: Farah Yacoub,Juan Pablo
    Abstract: This paper provides an overview of the Russian Federation’s default history, the legalcharacteristics of the bonds, and potential issues for litigation should a default materialize. The paper’s mainargument is that although it is not impenetrable, this Eurobond stock is more protective of the debtor than that ofthe usual emerging market country. It achieves this through preservation of all the defenses available under current lawand the presence of broad language in key provisions. For instance, clauses providing for payment in a different currency if “reasons beyond its control” stop the debtorfrom paying in the denomination currency have drawn attention. The paper analyzes this and othercharacteristics, providing initial assessments on how the issues could play out. While the bonds’ characteristicscould slow progress toward obtaining judgments when compared to other sovereign debts, they do not prevent them.Collecting on the judgments would be, as usual, the harder part. Ultimately, litigation over these debts could last along time; other creditor versus foreign sovereign episodes involving less debtor-friendly instruments have lasted 15years, and resolution and recovery would be highly contingent on political factors. Finally, the paper providesnon-lawyers a general roadmap of debt litigation against foreign sovereigns in the United States and the United Kingdom.
    Date: 2022–04–29
  11. By: Zsolt Darvas
    Abstract: In this Policy Contribution, we compare these two proposals in terms of their treatment under the current EU fiscal rules, and analyse the legal options for their introduction in the EU fiscal framework. We start with a brief review of the rationale for a green golden rule andthen discuss legal options.
    Date: 2022–07
  12. By: Deininger,Klaus W.; Ali,Daniel Ayalew
    Abstract: Using spatial fixed effects and time-varying controls, this paper draws on complete registrydata for 1981–2019, supplemented by satellite imagery, to analyze impacts of urban land titling for some 40,000 gridcells in Lesotho. Beyond confirming the short-term impacts on female co-ownership and investment, previously reported,the paper documents medium-term impacts on land sale and mortgage market activity and women’s participation in thesemarkets. Although titling was instrumental in ensuring the effectiveness of an earlier legal reform that allowed womento be co-owners of land, the credit and land market effects are due not to titling but to changes in policy to reducethe transaction cost of registering land that took effect just before titling started. Downward shifts in the timerequired to register transactions support this interpretation. The paper concludes by discussing what theevidence implies for design and evaluation of property registration programs.
    Date: 2022–05–16
  13. By: Ali Ayoub (Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)); Didier Sornette (ETH Zürich - Department of Management, Technology, and Economics (D-MTEC); Swiss Finance Institute; Southern University of Science and Technology; Tokyo Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: The opposition in a number of countries to the inclusion of nuclear energy in a sustainable energy portfolio, in part due to the dread of what the “nuclear” word inspires, has limited quantitative scientific foundation of the real benefits and risks. This has been amplified by the lack of a sound operational risk estimate due to the scarcity of the relevant empirical data. Using what is by far the largest - recently constructed - open database on accident precursors, and using our in-house generic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) models, we provide the first comprehensive statistical study of the operational risks in the civil nuclear sector. We quantify a Pareto distribution of precursor severities as well as a special runaway Dragon Kings regime for the largest events. With respect to risk assessment, our main finding is that risk is dominated by exogenous factors (95%). We calculate that, by focusing on these factors in new design concepts, the frequency of accidents of the Fukushima scale can be brought down to about one per 300 years of operation of the worldwide fleet. Our results also demonstrate the need for an international cooperation focused on the construction of full blockchains of the cascades of accident precursors.
    Keywords: nuclear energy, probabilistic safety assessment, accident precursors, dragon kings, operational risks, open-source database
    JEL: D81 K32 Q4 C8
    Date: 2022–09

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