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on Central and South America |
| By: | Berniell, Inés; Fernández, Raquel; Menduiña, Azul; Onofri, Milagros |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the sharp decline in fertility across Latin America using both period and cohort measures. Combining Vital Statistics, Census microdata, and UN population data, we decompose changes in fertility by age, education, and joint age–education groups. We show that the decline in period fertility between 2000 and 2022 is driven primarily by reductions in within-group birth rates rather than by changes in population composition, with the largest contributions coming from younger and less-educated women. Comparing the cohort born in the mid 1950s and the one born in the mid 1970s, we find that the decline in completed fertility reflects not only delayed childbearing but also substantial reductions in the average number of children per woman. This is driven primarily by lower fertility among mothers rather than by rising childlessness. Our findings provide new evidence on the nature of Latin America’s transition to below-replacement fertility and highlight several open questions for future research. |
| JEL: | J11 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21071 |
| By: | Becerra, Oscar; Briglia, Luigi-Maria; Leon-Diaz, John; Valencia, Óscar; Luetticke, Ralph |
| Abstract: | How should governments design progressive labor-income taxes when workers can shift labor supply into untaxed informal work? Using household surveys for Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, we document steep gradients in informality, employment, and unemployment across the income distribution. We analyze non-linear tax schedules in a heterogeneous-agent model with search frictions, savings, and an endogenous formal — informal labor-supply margin. Progressivity operates through an inclusion margin at the bottom-negative income taxes increase formal attachment — and an evasion margin at the top, where higher marginal tax rates shift labor supply into the untaxed sector. These opposing forces imply that both welfare and formality are hump-shaped in progressivity; in a calibration to Mexico, the welfare-maximizing degree of progressivity is about five times the current level. |
| Keywords: | Informality; Progressive taxation; Developing countries |
| JEL: | E26 H24 H26 O17 D31 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21229 |
| By: | Inés Berniell (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Lucila Berniell (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CEPE, SPD/SDV BID); Victoria Castillo (OEDE-Ministerio de Capital Humano); Belén Cañuelo (FCE-UNLP); Dolores de la Mata (CAF-banco de desarrollo de América Latina y el Caribe); Gerardo Garcia Oro (Gobierno de la Provincia de Córdoba); Néstor Grión (Gobierno de la Provincia de Córdoba); Federico Juncosa (CAF-banco de desarrollo de América Latina y el Caribe); Luis Laguinge (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of an internship program in Argentina (Programa Primer Paso) on the formal employment trajectories of People with Disabilities (PwD). Using administrative data from 2002–2023 and a staggered differencein-differences design, we estimate that program participation persistently increases formal employment and improves employment stability over time. On average, the probability of being formally employed rises by about 8 percentage points within three years after treatment, with the effect growing over time. The program also increases sustained employment—measured as at least six or twelve months of formal work per year—as well as the total number of months in formal jobs. Importantly, about three-quarters of the observed employment gains arise from jobs at firms other than the initial internship host, indicating broader integration into the formal labor market rather than the formalization of pre-existing ties. These results are robust to alternative specifications and pre-trend tests. The effects are larger for individuals residing in the capital city and for those placed in medium- and large-sized firms, while they are smaller for individuals with mental disabilities. No clear differences are found by age or gender. From the perspective of participating firms, we find no evidence of changes in their hiring behavior toward PwD after hosting a PPP intern with a disability. These findings suggest that internship programs can be an effective tool to reduce labor market gaps for people with disabilities in developing countries, with patterns consistent with the alleviation of informational frictions, the raising of expectations about employment prospects, and the acquisition of transferable skills. |
| JEL: | J14 J48 I38 O17 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0376 |
| By: | Felipe Barrera-Osorio; Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía; Matias Busso; Sebastian Galiani; Hyunjae Kang; Juan S. Muñoz-Morales; Juan Pantano |
| Abstract: | Parents may invest differently across children by compensating the disadvantaged child or by reinforcing the child with higher expected returns. We study this question using a conditional cash transfer experiment that uniquely randomized transfers at the student level, generating exogenous variation in transfer exposure across siblings within the same household. The transfers increased short-run attendance among treated students but generated negative spillovers on untreated siblings: untreated siblings of treated students were 3.7 percentage points less likely to graduate from college, a decline of about 30 percent relative to the control mean. We interpret these effects using a dynamic model of household schooling decisions that identifies parental aversion to inequality in children’s educational outcomes. The estimated model implies limited aversion to inequality in children’s educational outcomes and reproduces held-out treatment effects not used in estimation. A decomposition shows that the negative spillover is primarily driven by substitution in educational investments toward the treated child. |
| JEL: | D13 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35375 |