|
on Central and South America |
| By: | Robert Barro (Harvard University); Francesco Bianchi (Johns Hopkins University; CEPR; and NBER); Carlos Giraldo (Latin American Reserve Fund); Iader Giraldo-Salazar (Latin American Reserve Fund) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between fiscal policy and inflation in a group of Latin American countries during the period 2002 to 2023. Building on the fiscal theory of the price level and recent empirical work by Barro and Bianchi (2025), we examine how fiscal expansions affected inflation dynamics in the region, with a particular focus on fiscal expansions during the pandemic era. Using both OLS and dynamic panel models, we find robust evidence that increases in primary government expenditure significantly contributed to higher headline and core inflation. Our analysis incorporates a composite spending variable that adjusts for the size and maturity of public debt, revealing that inflationary effects are more pronounced in countries with shorter debt maturities and weaker fiscal credibility. Unlike in OECD countries, the inflationary impact of fiscal policy in Latin America persists even outside the COVID-19 period, suggesting structural vulnerabilities. These findings underscore the importance of credible fiscal frameworks and coordinated macroeconomic policies to maintain price stability in emerging markets. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal inflation; fiscal spending; COVID pandemic; Latin America. |
| JEL: | D91 E32 E71 |
| Date: | 2025–11–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000566:021801 |
| By: | Berniell, Inés; Facchini, Gabriel; Perez-Vincent, Santiago M. |
| Abstract: | This study examines the challenges of analyzing domestic violence (DV) in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and seeks to improve measurement through two main contributions. First, we collect and describe traditional DV data sources (household surveys and administrative records) across 19 countries. The analysis reveals substantial gaps in data availability, with infrequent and outdated survey efforts in most countries. Nevertheless, surveys confirm high DV prevalence, with at least one in five women reporting victimization in all countries examined, and highlight pervasive underreporting that limits the reliability of administrative crime data. Second, we examine the properties of a novel, high-frequency indicator based on online search behavior: the Google Domestic Violence Index. Using administrative data from eight LAC countries, we find that the index is strongly correlated with calls to DV helplines but shows weaker association with police reports or emergency calls. The evidence suggests that the index captures early-stage, information-seeking behavior and may provide a real-time signal of latent victimization not reflected in official statistics. Our findings underscore the potential of digital data to complement traditional sources and to support more timely, responsive approaches to tracking DV. |
| Keywords: | domestic violence;Google search |
| JEL: | J12 J16 J18 I18 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14399 |
| By: | Loureiro, Paulo Roberto Amorim |
| Abstract: | This paper develops the concept of “criminal symbiosis” to explain the persistence of violence in Brazil. Using official historical series, we document a systematic co-movement between serious crimes and minor offenses, suggesting a process of mutual reinforcement. When minor crimes increase, policing costs rise and the expected punishment for severe offenses declines, enabling escalation into homicide and organized crime. Conversely, targeted repression of minor infractions helps restore social norms and generates measurable deterrent effects. We formalize this mechanism through a dynamic system linking offender stocks, institutional responses, and intergenerational transmission of crime. The framework provides clear testable implications and supports integrated crime-prevention strategies that combine enforcement, rehabilitation, and community resilience. |
| Keywords: | Criminal symbiosis; Crime dynamics; Minor offenses; Homicide; Deterrence; Brazil |
| JEL: | H56 I31 J13 K42 |
| Date: | 2025–06–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126627 |
| By: | Diogo G.C. Britto; Alexandre Fonseca; Paolo Pinotti; Breno Sampaio; Lucas Warwar |
| Abstract: | Conditional cash transfers (CCTs) are widely used as a poverty reduction policy. While a large stream of literature has evaluated their short-term impacts, we know far less about their long-term effects. This paper investigates the long-term, intergenerational effects of one of the largest CCT in the world: Brazil's Programa Bolsa Família (PBF). |
| Keywords: | Cash transfers, Poverty, Social mobility, Long-run effects, Brazil |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-96 |