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on Central and South America |
| By: | Albornoz-Crespo, Facundo; Almeyda Torres, Gonzalo; Lombardi, María; Oubiña, Victoria; Zoido, Pablo |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of a randomized one-on-one remote phone tutoring program implemented between 2021 and 2023. The intervention reached almost seven thousand students in seven Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Paraguay and Peru. The program targeted students with low initial learning levels and focused on foundational numeracy skills using a differentiated instruction approach. We find that assignment to tutoring increased student test scores by 0.2 SD. Tutoring benefited all students, with no differential effects by gender, age, socioeconomic status, or baseline scores. Students who initially reported having difficulty with concentration or memory experienced larger average effects. Finally, we find that students with lower initial performance exhibited larger improvements in more basic mathematical operations, whereas those with better performance at baseline saw larger gains in more complex operations. This underscores the importance of offering differentiated instruction based on students' initial performance. |
| JEL: | I20 I24 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20272 |
| By: | Disslbacher, Franziska (Vienna University of Economics and Business); Morelli, Salvatore; , Matteo |
| Abstract: | Using the novel GC Wealth Project Data Warehouse, this paper shows that wealth inequality has increased since the early 2000s in roughly 60% of the countries in our sample, although trends are not uniform across countries. While the largest gains in wealth shares accrue to the top 10%, relative losses are borne by the bottom 50% and the middle 40% alike. We reveal substantial variation of estimates across data sources and units of analysis, which complicates international comparison of wealth inequality. Yet, core trends at the country level are generally robust. Individual-based series generally report higher inequality than household-based ones. Regional patterns reveal sharp increases in inequality in Latin America, North America, India, and China, while Europe and Asia-Pacific exhibit more stable trends. Incorporating Forbes billionaire data extends coverage to low-income countries and Africa—where, notably, billionaire wealth relative to GDP has remained stable, marking a distinct exception to global patterns. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper) |
| Date: | 2026–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:xrnpj_v1 |
| By: | Gabriel Montes-Rojas (IIEP-UBA/CONICET); Fernando Toledo (UNLP); Juan Manuel Rodríguez Repeti (IIEP-UBA) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies what happens when AI gets cheaper, with emphasis on the labor market outcomes, whether it creates formal jobs or whether it pushes workers into informality. We argue that the answer depends on the elasticity of substitution between imported AI capital and formal labor. We build a small open economy DSGE model with a dual labor market, imported AI capital, and country risk, calibrated to an economy where informality is pervasive. The same decline in AI prices produces sharply different labor-market outcomes depending on whether AI substitutes or complements formal workers. Under substitution, cheaper AI weakens formal labor demand and increases the role of the informal sector as an employment buffer. Under complementarity, it expands formal employment and amplifies output, wages, investment, and capital accumulation. The model therefore shows that AI can become either a source of displacement pressure or a driver of formal-sector expansion, depending on how it interacts with human labor. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence, Informal Economy, Dual Labor Markets, DSGE, Latin America |
| JEL: | E26 F41 O33 J46 C68 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:401 |
| By: | Pablo Filippi; Ryan Kim; Ms. Nan Li; María Jesús Pérez; Younghun Shim |
| Abstract: | We study how commodity booms affect productivity using administrative microdata from Chile combining firm exports by product and destination, employer-employee records, and firm-to-firm production networks. Exploiting differential Chinese demand across Chilean commodity products, we measure firms’ exposure to the boom and trace its effects on productivity and resource allocation. We find three mechanisms. First, more exposed firms experience larger revenue increases but no differential productivity gains, channeling revenues into wages and materials. Second, among exposed firms, low-productivity firms expand employment while high-productivity firms do not, hiring workers from more productive employers. Third, domestic suppliers with greater indirect exposure show larger sales and productivity gains. We develop a model with heterogeneous export wedges and labor market frictions in which commodity booms can reduce sectoral productivity by exacerbating input misallocation, consistent with firm-level and aggregate evidence. Calibrated to Chile, this mechanism explains half of the mining TFP decline from 2005 to 2013. |
| Keywords: | Commodity booms; Misallocation; Productivity; Micro-level Data; Labor reallocation. |
| Date: | 2026–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/163 |
| By: | Attanasio, Orazio; Conti, Gabriella; Jervis, Pamela; Meghir, Costas; Okbay, Aysu |
| Abstract: | We evaluate impacts heterogeneity of an Early Childhood Intervention in Colombia, with respect to the Educational Attainment Polygenic Score (EA4 PGS) constructed from DNA data based on GWAS weights from a European population. We find that the EA4 PGS is predictive of several measures of child development, mother’s IQ and, to some extent, educational attainment. We also show that the impacts of the intervention are significantly greater in children with low PGS, to the point that the intervention eliminates the initial genetic disadvantage. Lastly, we find that children with high PGS attract more parental stimulation; however, the latter increases more strongly in children with low PGS. |
| JEL: | C21 J13 I24 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20221 |
| By: | Bustos, Sebastian; Pomeranz, Dina; Suárez Serrato, Juan Carlos; Vila-Belda, José; Zucman, Gabriel |
| Abstract: | Profit shifting by multinational corporations is thought to reduce tax revenue around the world. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the introduction of standard regulations to limit profit shifting. Using administrative tax and customs data from Chile, we find that the reform was ineffective in reducing multinationals’ transfers to lower-tax countries and did not significantly raise tax payments. Interviews with tax advisors and employment history data reveal a drastic increase in consulting services. Our results illustrate that when enforcement can be circumvented by sophisticated tax planning, it can benefit tax consultants at the expense of tax authorities and taxpayers. |
| JEL: | F23 H26 O23 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20207 |