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on Central and South America |
| By: | Martin Leites (IECON-UDELAR); Xavier Ramos (Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona); Cecilia Rodriguez (cecilia.rodriguez@fcea.edu.uy); Joan Vila (IECON-UDELAR) |
| Abstract: | We contribute to the very incipient literature that estimates the intergenerational mobility of income from large-scale administrative data using high-quality income data and provide novel evidence of intergenerational income mobility in a middle-income country, Uruguay. Our estimates address the important role of informal labor markets, one of the features of low- and middle-income countries, and a major challenge to obtain unbiased estimates of intergenerational mobility in these countries. We estimate an IRA of 0.292, indicating that persistence is higher in Uruguay than in high-income countries, but lower than in the US. Our results show that (i) informal income increases intergenerational persistence, (ii) intergenerational persistence is higher at the upper half of the distribution, especially at the richest decile, and (iii) intergenerational income persistence is largest among parents and children of the same sex. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational income mobility, Informal labor markets, Uruguay, Non-linearities |
| JEL: | D31 J62 E26 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2026-694 |
| By: | Oswaldo Mena Aguilar |
| Abstract: | In developing economies, where fiscal space is often constrained, the minimum wage is often seen as a potentially important tool for improving living standards and reducing inequality. Yet rigorous evidence on its effects at the household level—where well-being is ultimately realized—remains scarce. This article provides the first region-wide analysis of the relationship between minimum wages and household income inequality in Latin America, distinguishing between market (pre-tax and public transfer) and disposable (post-tax and public transfer) income to assess whether the observed pattern is consistent with a predistributive interpretation. Using two-way fixed-effects models on a panel of 15 countries from 2003 to 2020, and triangulating results across SWIID, SEDLAC, and LIS, I find that a higher minimum wage is robustly associated with lower household inequality. The association is strongest when the wage floor is measured relative to average pay, and it appears for both market and disposable income. This parallel compression is consistent with a predistributive interpretation and the findings are robust to controls for partisanship, alternative specifications, and small-cluster inference. Overall, the results suggest that minimum-wage policy can plausibly form part of a broader inequality-reducing policy mix in contexts of high informality and limited fiscal capacity. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:921 |
| By: | Regina Calles; Tom Vogl |
| Abstract: | Latin America's momentous fertility transition is now in the domain of history, allowing a cohort perspective on the decline of completed fertility. Using census microdata from 17 Latin American countries, we track female birth cohorts from the 1920s to the 1970s by subnational region to document the extent to which cohort fertility decline coincided with other demographic and socioeconomic processes. Across cohorts within subnational regions, children ever born fell one-for-one with mortality decline. Expansions in urbanization, multigenerational living, women's and husbands' education, women's employment, and the non-agricultural sector all predicted declines in ever-born and surviving fertility, but women's education and sectoral composition were the dominant forces after covariate adjustment. Fertility decline was not systematically linked with improvements in children's outcomes, including school enrollment, literacy, primary completion, and non-employment. These cohort facts challenge theories of fertility decline centered on women's work and children's education but support others emphasizing women's education. |
| JEL: | J13 N36 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35326 |