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on Central and South America |
| By: | Ciaschi, Matias; Falcone, Guillermo; Garganta, Santiago; Gasparini, Leonardo; Bertín, Octavio; Ramírez-Leira, Lucía |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the potential distributional consequences of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption in Latin American labor markets. Using harmonized household survey data from 14 countries, we combine four recently developed AI occupational exposure indices---the AI Occupational Exposure Index (AIOE), the Complementarity-Adjusted AIOE (C-AIOE), the Generative AI Exposure Index (GBB), and the AI-Generated Occupational Exposure Index (GENOE)--to analyze patterns across countries and worker groups. We validate these measures by comparing task profiles between Latin America and high-income economies using PIAAC data, and develop a contextual adjustment that incorporates informality, wage structures, and union coverage. Finally, we simulate first order impacts of AI-induced displacement on earnings, poverty, and inequality. The results show substantial heterogeneity, with higher levels of AI- related risk among women, younger, more educated, and formal workers. Indices that account for task complementarities show flatter gradients across the income and education distribution. Simulations suggest that displacement effects may lead to only moderate increases in inequality and poverty in the absence of mitigating policies. |
| JEL: | O33 J21 D31 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14253 |
| By: | Oswaldo Mena Aguilar |
| Abstract: | This article examines how partisanship and other political determinants influenced disposable and market income inequality in Latin America from 1990 to 2022. Using three separate sources of data, it finds that left partisanship is consistently associated with lower levels of both market and disposable income inequality (pre distribution and redistribution respectively) within one- and four-years. It also finds an independent and consistent negative effect of social mobilization. The paper makes several contributions. First, it advances the concept of pre distribution in the study of partisanship and inequality, extending scarce existing empirical analysis into and beyond the Pink Tide and commodity boom era. Second, it codes partisanship at the presidential level, rather than the more common measure of cumulative legislative power, offering an indicator more aligned to Latin America’s presidential systems. Third, it triangulates results across SEDLAC, SWIID, and LIS data, reinforcing confidence in the robustness of the core findings. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:902 |
| By: | Aristizábal-Ramírez, María; Santos, Cezar; Torres, Alejandra |
| Abstract: | This paper examines labor markets across Latin American countries and documents large differences in labor market outcomes across these countries. Using comparable data for eight countries, we show that unemployment and informality act as substitute states and cluster countries into high-unemployment or high-informality groups. Labor market transitions vary systematically across these groups and help explain differences in employment dynamics. Embedding country-specific transitions in a simple model, we show that these differences have meaningful macroeconomic implications: countries with more volatile labor markets exhibit higher asset accumulation and greater consumption inequality. Moreover, heterogeneity in labor market transitions produces different effects on how taxation influences savings and inequality. |
| Keywords: | Labor markets;Informality;Unemployment;Transitions |
| JEL: | E24 E26 J46 O54 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14256 |
| By: | Albina, Iván; César, Andrés; Ciaschi, Matías; Falcone, Guillermo; Gasparini, Leonardo |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal effects of trade shocks on local labor markets (LLMs), with a focus on the rural–urban divide. In particular, it analyzes the impact of China’s integration into global trade on Chilean LLMs with varying degrees of rurality. The identification strategy exploits variation in pre-shock industrial specialization across LLMs and changes over time in global Chinese import penetration and industry-specific export demand. We study short-run effects (1996–2006) and medium run dynamics (through 2022). Urban LLMs, more exposed to import competition, experienced declines in income, increases in poverty and informality, and persistent schooling losses. Rural LLMs, linked to primary sectors benefiting from Chinese demand, saw sustained income growth and reductions in poverty and informality. These asymmetric effects likely contributed to narrowing regional disparities and underscore the importance of geographic exposure in shaping the distributional consequences of global trade integration. |
| Keywords: | Comercio internacional, Evaluación de impacto, China, Finanzas, Investigación social, Equidad e inclusión social, Ciudades, Pueblos nativos, |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbl:dblwop:2522 |
| By: | Andrés Barrios Fernández; Jorge Garcia-Hombrados; Daniel Perez-Parra |
| Abstract: | This paper provides causal evidence that geographic specialization can significantly enhance police effectiveness. Using rich administrative and survey data from Chile, we examine a major reform that subdivided police operational areas - e.g., municipalities - into smaller zones known as quadrants. On average, each municipality was divided into seven quadrants, with officers permanently assigned to these territories to allow them to develop a deep understanding of their structure, crime patterns, and communities. By exploiting the staggered implementation of the reform across municipalities, we show that this reorganization enhanced police effectiveness along multiple dimensions. Among surveyed households, twelve-month victimization rates declined by 10 percentage points (36%). In line with this result, administrative records from the police reveal a 14% reduction in reported crime. The reform also enhanced public confidence: the share of households reporting high trust in police rose by 12 percentage points (30%), while those perceiving increased criminal activity fell by 15 percentage points (36%). Consequently, the share of households investing in private security measures decreased by 7.7 percentage points (37%). Evidence suggests these improvements stem from geographic specialization, as households in treated municipalities report both greater police presence and better police performance across multiple dimensions associated with a better knowledge of the quadrants and their communities. |
| Keywords: | Police effectiveness, geographic specialization, police organization |
| Date: | 2025–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2122 |