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on Central and South America |
| By: | Erik Andres-Escayola (UNIVERSITY OF ALICANTE); Luis Molina (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Javier J. Pérez (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Elena Vidal (BANCO DE ESPAÑA) |
| Abstract: | Latin America’s growth has been hindered by institutional instability and volatile economic policies, often driven by political cycles. These shifts generate uncertainty that deters investment and disrupts productivity. We analyze this phenomenon using Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) indices, assessing their impact on domestic macroeconomic variables via regional spillovers - spurred by regional proximity - and also considering the global transmission of EPU shocks to key trade and financial partners. To do so, we assemble a comprehensive and comparable database of EPU indices for the region: first, we construct new indices for Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela, and second, we update the ones available in other papers for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru using a comparable methodology. Our results show that: (i) regional EPU shocks reduce regional GDP growth, deter capital inflows and spark exchange rate instability; (ii) Brazil and Mexico are key sources of uncertainty spillovers within the region; and (iii) EPU shocks in Latin America affect financial and real variables in major partner economies, with Spain being particularly exposed. |
| Keywords: | economic policy uncertainty, textual analysis, Latin America, spillovers |
| JEL: | C43 D80 E32 O11 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2549 |
| By: | Julieta Pérez Amador; Adriana Robles |
| Abstract: | Cohabitation and marriage have coexisted in Latin America since the times of colonization. The level of cohabitation, however, has varied across and within countries. Traditionally, these unions were most common among population groups characterized by having lower socioeconomic status. However, beginning in the 1970s but to a much larger extent during the 1990s cohabitation arose in countries with and without traditional forms of cohabitation, and across different social strata. Comparative studies in the region have considered the effects of socioeconomic variables on the probability of cohabiting to be constant across cohorts, even though correlates of cohabitation have undergone important transformations during the period of cohabitation expansion. In this paper, using data from the Luxembourg Income Study Dataset, we challenge this assumption using harmonized Latin American data and regression methods to analyze within- and between-country cohort variation in the effects of income differentials on the probability of cohabiting, assessing to what extent this relationship varies across countries and to what extent it can be explained by other demographic variables. We aim to contribute to the understanding of the continuity and change in Latin American cohabitation and of the role it plays within the larger society and its stratification. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:905 |
| By: | Theo Palomo (Paris School of Economics (PSE)); Davi Bhering (Paris School of Economics (PSE)); Thiago Scot (World Bank); Pierre Bachas (World Bank); Luciana Barcarolo (Secretariat of the Federal Revenue of Brazil, Ministry of Finance (Receita Federal do Brasil, RFB)); Celso Campos (Secretariat of the Federal Revenue of Brazil, Ministry of Finance (Receita Federal do Brasil, RFB)); Javier Feinmann (EU Tax Observatory); Leonardo Moreira (Secretariat of the Federal Revenue of Brazil, Ministry of Finance (Receita Federal do Brasil, RFB)); Gabriel Zucman (Paris School of Economics (PSE), UC Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | We use population-wide administrative micro-data to provide new estimates of income inequality and effective tax rates by income groups in Brazil, capturing all income and all tax payments. Our data allow us to link businesses to their owners and thus to allocate business income and associated taxes to the corresponding individual firm owners. We provide sharp upward revisions to official inequality estimates: the top 1% earns 27.4% of total income in 2019, one of the highest level recorded in the world. The tax system, which relies heavily on consumption taxes, is regressive: while the average tax rate in the economy is 42.5%, this rate falls to 20.6% for million-dollar earners (roughly the top 0.01% of the distribution), due to the non-taxation of dividends and provisions that reduce corporate tax liabilities. We provide evidence suggesting that inequality in developing countries may be systematically underestimated, as even in Brazil—where dividends are untaxed, and hence incentives to retain income within companies are limited—attributing profits to business owners substantially raises income inequality. |
| Keywords: | Income inequality, effective tax rates, Brazil |
| JEL: | D3 H2 H3 H5 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbp:report:009 |
| By: | Carlos Andrés Brando (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | This paper identifies Bogotá as a demographic sink during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The almost permanent contraction of its natural population resulted from low birth rates and heightened death rates. After the Thousand Days’ War (1899–1902), this condition was reversed. Rapid population growth ensued for over a century, as the city added, to the regular flows of immigrants, annual surpluses of its own natural population. Bogotá thus turned into a demographic source. This historical shift from sink to source was closely linked to changes in health. This research demonstrates that three traits of the early health transition (EHT) were present during this transformation: death-rate stabilization, improvements in life expectancy, and structural changes in the causes of death. It reconstructs historical statistics for crude death, birth, marriage, and natural-increase rates, and develops life tables, including survival rates based on abridged and period data from largely unpublished or unexplored archival sources. These empirical findings substantiate the contributions made to the literature on the city’s social and demographic past and broaden the perspectives for other scholars to apply the EHT and naturalpopulation frameworks to the historical evolution of cities in Latin America and beyond. |
| Keywords: | historical demography, health transition, life expectancy, mortality, fertility, Bogota |
| JEL: | I12 J11 J13 N36 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021850 |