|
on Central and South America |
| By: | Milagros Onofri (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Inés Berniell (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Raquel Fernández (NYU & NBER & CEPR); Azul Menduiña (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the sharp decline in fertility across Latin America using both period and cohort measures. Combining Vital Statistics, Census microdata, and UN population data, we decompose changes in fertility by age, education, and joint age–education groups. We show that the decline in period fertility between 2000 and 2022 is driven primarily by reductions in within-group birth rates rather than by changes in population composition, with the largest contributions coming from younger and less-educated women. Comparing the cohort born in the mid 1950s and the one born in the mid 1970s, we find that the decline in completed fertility reflects not only delayed childbearing but also substantial reductions in the average number of children per woman. This is driven primarily by lower fertility among mothers rather than by rising childlessness. Our findings provide new evidence on the nature of Latin America’s transition to below-replacement fertility and highlight several open questions for future research. |
| JEL: | J11 J13 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0368 |
| By: | Koppensteiner, Martin (University of Surrey); Menezes, Livia (University of Birmingham) |
| Abstract: | We study the causal effect of maternal criminal victimization on child health using linked police reports and birth records from Brazil. Focusing on robbery and theft - everyday crimes not involving physical injury - we show that victimization during pregnancy increases low birthweight by 6.9 percentage points, with effects particularly pronounced among socioeconomically disadvantaged mothers. These effects are comparable in magnitude to those documented for physical assaults, indicating that stress and economic disruption alone adversely affect fetal development. We also document persistent effects, including elevated hospitalization and ICU admission rates in early childhood, pointing to significant intergenerational costs. |
| Keywords: | victimization, crime, birth outcomes, health investments |
| JEL: | I12 J13 K42 O12 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18413 |
| By: | Juan Camilo Laborde Vera (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | How does the current account respond to a monetary policy shock? The answer to this perennial question is theoretically ambiguous and empirical evidence is particularly scarce in emerging markets due to challenges in identifying exogenous policy variation. I construct a novel dataset of monetary policy shocks using analysts’ forecasts of policy rate decisions for an unbalanced panel of five emerging market economies in Latin America during 1999-2024. I estimate impulse response functions using local projections and find that a monetary tightening shock leads to a “J curve” pattern in the current account: a short-run contraction followed by a medium-run expansion. The response is heterogeneous in the cross-section and depends on the strength of the exchange rate appreciation resulting from the monetary contraction and the country’s export-import structure. The panel estimation results show that exports and imports exhibit a hump-shaped pattern and decline by 4.5 and 5.9 per cent, respectively, as a result of a one-percentage-point policy tightening shock. The results are robust to using alternative measures of high-frequency monetary shocks. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy, Local Projections, Monetary Policy Shocks, Current Account Adjustment, International Macroeconomics |
| JEL: | E52 F32 F41 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:022354 |