|
on Central and South America |
| By: | Hernán Bejarano (CIDE-ESI-Chapman University); Matías Busso (IDB); Juan Francisco Santos (IDB) |
| Abstract: | We study how individuals in six Latin American countries value public versus private provision of education and healthcare using a survey experiment. Respondents were randomly assigned to vignettes that vary income, service quality, and provider type. Reported service quality is the main driver of choices: the probability of selecting a private provider roughly doubles when reported quality of the public option falls from 80 to 20 percent, while income has a smaller effect. Higher institutional trust lowers the likelihood of switching to private providers but does not affect willingness to payonce individuals choose private provision. |
| Keywords: | Stated preferences; Willingness to pay; Public versus private provision;Service quality; Latin America |
| JEL: | D12 H42 I21 I18 O54 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:385 |
| By: | Andrés Álvarez (Universidad de los Andes); Oscar Becerra (Universidad de los Andes); Manuel Fernández (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | Countries at similar income levels exhibit markedly different rates and anatomies of labor informality. We organize these patterns around three interacting forces: a legal wedge (minimum wages and non-wage labor costs, alongside enforcement), the sectoral productivity and composition, and the private value of formality (coverage, portability, and contract enforceability). A parsimonious model yields sharp “thin-margin” predictions: effects concentrate where earnings cluster near the minimum legal standards. Evidence from a cross-country, country–sector panel supports the framework—legal and enforcement effects are largest where thin-margin exposure is high; higher private value lowers informality and dampens wedge effects; and composition, especially within services, conditions aggregates. The results reconcile disparate findings and imply targeted policy: align enforcement with thin-margin exposure, raise the private value of formality via low-friction administration and portability, and pursue sectoral paths that expand formal-leaning activities. |
| Keywords: | Informal employment; informal sector; minimum wage; non-wage labor costs; sectoral composition. |
| JEL: | J46 O17 J38 J31 H55 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:022171 |
| By: | María Florencia Pinto (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Yulia Valdivia Rivera (University of Chicago, Harris School of Public Policy); Hernan Winkler (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the effects of strengthened labor regulation enforcement on labor market outcomes in Peru from 2010 to 2019. In 2013, the Peruvian government established a national labor inspection agency, which was progressively rolled out nationwide. This reform led to a substantial increase in the frequency and severity of fines imposed on formal firms. Despite this heightened enforcement, our analysis using extended two-way fixed effects models finds no significant effects on overall employment levels. Moreover, there is no evidence of changes along either the intensive margin—informal employment within formal firms—or the extensive margin—the share of employment in informal firms. These findings suggest that increased enforcement of labor regulations did not lead to measurable shifts in labor informality or employment outcomes during this period. |
| JEL: | H26 J3 O23 O17 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0363 |
| By: | Matias Ciaschi (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP and CONICET); Mario Negre (The World Bank); Guido Neidhöfer (Türk-Alman Üniversitesi & ZEW Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents comprehensive evidence on intergenerational mobility in Mozambique—the country with the lowest documented level of mobility worldwide—and investigates its relationship with child labor. Using survey data that includes a module on non co-resident adult children, we document a strong link between children’s educational attainment and parental education and household wealth. Interestingly, our findings suggest that child labor perpetuates intergenerational inequality, not merely as a response to income shocks, but mainly due to labor market structures—particularly the complementarity between parental and child labor and the substantial opportunity costs associated with schooling. These findings underscore the need for targeted policies that decouple children’s labor market prospects from those of their parents and enhance awareness of the long-term returns to education. |
| JEL: | D63 I24 J62 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0365 |
| By: | Anauati, María Victoria; Romero, María Noelia; Baraldi, Lucia; Sosa Escudero, Walter; Tommasi, Mariano |
| Abstract: | Recidivism is a persistent challenge for criminal justice systems worldwide, yet evidence from Latin America remains scarce. This study addresses that gap through three contributions. First, it reviews the individual, institutional, and contextual determinants of recidivism, with special attention to Latin America. Second, it examines the potential use of AI-based prediction tools, discussing the institutional, data-related, and ethical challenges such implementation entails. Third, using two decades of administrative data from Argentinas prison system, it applies six machine learning models to predict reoffending. The analysis identifies economic offenses and age at incarceration as the strongest predictors, while geographic indicators also play a role, reflecting the spatial clustering of repeat offenders across prisons. The findings suggest that routinely collected prison-level information, often underutilized, can enable reasonably accurate risk prediction and guide effective rehabilitation and prison management strategies. |
| JEL: | K40 C50 I30 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14489 |