|
on Central and South America |
| By: | Angel Alvarado (University of Pennsylvania); Ivan Luzardo-Luna (University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines divergent economic trajectories in Latin America between the late nineteenth century and the first half of the twentieth century through the lens of informal empire, fiscal policy, and institutional development. We construct a country–commodity panel covering the period 1850–1950 to assess the impact of foreign corporations on commodity production in seven Latin American countries—Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela—that experienced economic take-off under an export-led growth model. We find evidence that foreign corporations promoted key commodity exports, although these results are contingent on the inclusion of Venezuela’s oil industry. We argue that Venezuela’s distinctive outcome reflects the interaction between a capital-intensive staple and a fiscal strategy that avoided debt-led growth during the 1920s, as oil revenues were used to reduce and repay external public debt. This choice allowed Venezuela to sustain informal empire arrangements through the Great Depression, in contrast to other large countries in the region. |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:26-002 |
| By: | Zarrilli Joaquín; Porto Natalia; De la Vega Pablo; García Carolina Inés |
| Abstract: | Economies around the world are simultaneously undergoing two profound changes: the 'green' (sustainability-focused) transition and the 'automation’ (digital-focused) transition. This dual or ‘twin’ transition has significant implications for the tourism industry, which is a crucial source of employment for many countries. This paper explores the potential for transitions to green and digital jobs in the tourism industry. We analyse household survey data for the seven largest economies of Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, and Uruguay) for the period 2011-2024. Our main results show that the tourism sector in Latin America has high potential to reallocate workers from brown to green jobs, thereby reducing the adjustment costs of decarbonization. This capacity is particularly pronounced in Mexico and Ecuador, and is especially strong among younger cohorts, men, and workers with lower levels of formal education. |
| JEL: | E20 Q50 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4846 |
| By: | Baioni Tomás |
| Abstract: | One of the salient aspects of climate change is the increment of both the intensity and frequency of natural disasters. This paper addresses how these factors interplay at a local level, focusing on Chilean regions at a quarterly basis for the period 2009-2025, using the local projections method. Results suggest that on average, a 1% shock in natural disasters' intensity has an immediate negative effect in employment by 0.06%, and an immediate negative effect on the debt market, increasing the household debt by 0.1 p.p. Overall, my results suggest that a 1% shock in natural disasters' intensity has an immediate positive effect in real GDP by 0.02%, and a significant long-term negative effect on GDP by 0.05%, potentially showing signs of reallocation of a country's income. When analyzing natural disasters' frequency, estimates suggest that Chilean regions that suffer a natural disaster are more likely to experience short-term decreases in employment and increases in household debt, and lower GDP, although the latter effect is found to not be statistically significant. I rely on a panel VAR model to estimate the impact of natural disasters' intensity as robustness checks, and find that my original conclusions hold: natural disasters have a short-term negative effect on employment at 0.01% and a long-term negative effect on growth at 0.2%. |
| JEL: | H70 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4778 |
| By: | Ferreira, Francisco H. G.; Peragine, Vito; Brunori, Paolo; Salas Rojo, Pedro; Moramarco, Domenico; Barajas Prieto, Luis; Barbieri, Teresa; Daza Baez, Nancy; Datt, Gaurav; de Sandi, Vito; Farella, Fabio; Martinez Jr., Arturo; Nguyen, John; Park, Albert; Simeone, Enza; Sirugue, Louis; Torres Lopez, Pedro; Zotti, Giorgia |
| Abstract: | This paper describes a new public-access online database containing internationally comparable estimates of inequality of opportunity for seventy-two countries, covering two-thirds of the world’s population. The estimates were computed directly from the unit-record microdata for 196 household surveys, using a suite of machine-learning tools selected to minimize the omitted variable and overfitting biases discussed in the literature. Overall, differences in opportunities account for substantial shares of total income inequality (with the mean of our preferred estimate being 40.9%), but there is substantial variation across countries, with estimates ranging from 18.9% in Denmark (2011) to 76.7% in South Africa (2017). The latest US estimate of 41.6% places it among the most opportunity unequal highincome countries. We also find strong support for the existence of a positive association between income inequality and relative inequality of opportunity, analogous to the “Great Gatsby Curve” for mobility and inequality. Similarly, there is evidence of an inverted-U “Opportunity Kuznets curve”. The database is available at www.geom.ecineq.org. |
| Keywords: | inequality of opportunity; mobility; machine learning |
| JEL: | D31 D63 I39 |
| Date: | 2026–01–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130992 |
| By: | Nora Lustig (Tulane University); Andrea Vigorito (Universidad de la Republica, Uruguay) |
| Abstract: | Inequality measures based on household surveys may be biased because they fail to capture the upper tail of the income distribution properly. The "missing rich" problem stems from sampling errors, item and unit nonresponse, underreporting of income, and data preprocessing techniques like top coding. This paper reviews salient approaches to address the underrepresentation of the rich in household surveys. Approaches are classified based on information sources and method. In terms of information sources, the distinction is between within-survey data and survey data combined with external sources (e.g., tax records). In terms of methods, we identify three categories: replacing, reweighting, and combined reweighting and replacing. We show that income inequality levels and trends are sensitive to the correction approach. This paper is a companion piece to the chapter of the same name and includes all the appendices that could not be incorporated into the chapter due to space limitations. |
| Keywords: | inequality, missing rich, household surveys, undercoverage, underreporting, replacing, reweighting |
| JEL: | C18 C81 C83 D31 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:wpaper:2512 |