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on Central and South America |
| By: | Matias Ciaschi (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP and CONICET); Guillermo Falcone (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP and CONICET); Santiago Garganta (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Leonardo Gasparini (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP and CONICET); Octavio Bertín (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Lucía Ramirez-Leira (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the potential distributional consequences of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption in Latin American labor markets. Using harmonized household survey data from 14 countries, we combine four recently developed AI occupational exposure indices—the AI Occupational Exposure Index (AIOE), the ComplementarityAdjusted AIOE (C-AIOE), the Generative AI Exposure Index (GBB), and the AIGenerated Occupational Exposure Index (GENOE)—to analyze patterns across countries and worker groups. We validate these measures by comparing task profiles between Latin America and high-income economies using PIAAC data, and develop a contextual adjustment that incorporates informality, wage structures, and union coverage. Finally, we simulate first-order impacts of AI-induced displacement on earnings, poverty, and inequality. The results show substantial heterogeneity, with higher levels of AI-related risk among women, younger, more educated, and formal workers. Indices that account for task complementarities show flatter gradients across the income and education distribution. Simulations suggest that displacement effects may lead to only moderate increases in inequality and poverty in the absence of mitigating policies. |
| JEL: | O33 J21 D31 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0361 |
| By: | Allison Benson (Acción Pública Community Think Tank, Colombia); Juan José Rojas (Universidad de los Andes); Juan Felipe Ortiz-Riomalo (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | Inequality remains a critical global issue, with wealth and income inequality increasing worldwide, especially in regions like Latin America. Research suggests that people’s beliefs shape the persistence of inequality, and that social context and social interactions, in turn, influence beliefs. This paper examines how externally structured social interactions and reflections upon inequality can alter beliefs about inequality, as well as distributive choices. We pre-registered and conducted a field experiment in which participants were randomly assigned to treatments involving one-on-one conversations framed optimistically or pessimistically, or to a guided self-reflection using visual aids and prompts. Comparisons across structured intervention formats reveal post treatment differences in belief and behavioral change, although the differences across treatments are not statistically significant. Nonetheless, further exploration of the data suggests that one-on-one conversations under an optimistic framing, can be particularly effective in triggering optimistic beliefs about the potential of changing inequality. The extent of our effects appears to be bounded by the specific sample composition of our study participants, who exhibited high ex-ante levels of concern about inequality as well as highly prosocial distributive choices. These insights invite future research with broader types of participants (potentially more skeptical) to assess the potential of deliberation and other structured interventions in generating sustained belief and behavioural change around inequalities. |
| Keywords: | Inequality, perceptions, social dialogue, Colombia |
| JEL: | D63 D91 I31 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021809 |
| By: | Agustina Giraudy (American University and School of Social Sciences and Government, Tecnológico de Monterrey); Francisco Urdinez (Universidad Católica de Chile); Guadalupe González (University of Maryland, College Park) |
| Abstract: | This codebook documents the structure, coverage, and construction protocols of the Subnational Politics Project (SPP) datasets, which systematize executive, electoral, and subnational democracy information for Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico from the 1980s to 2024. Its purpose is to ensure transparency, standardization, and methodological traceability, enabling comparative research and robust analyses of territorial politics in Latin America. |
| Keywords: | Public pensions, Fiscal sustainability, Early retirement, Public expenditure, Education finance, Intergenerational equity, Budget policy, Public sector pensions, Mexico |
| JEL: | H55 H75 I22 J26 H68 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gnt:wpaper:19 |
| By: | Leopoldo Fergusson (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that Colombia’s taxation problems reflect a deeper political economy equilibrium shaped by extractive institutions, extreme inequality, and cultural norms that favor individual solutions over collective ones. Historical legacies produced a weak and often distrusted state, which in turn fostered social norms that legitimize rule bending, low tax morale, and clientelistic exchanges. These institutional and cultural arrangements proved mutually reinforcing for decades. Since the 1990s, however, political openness expanded inclusion and triggered greater demand for public goods. The result has been a more responsive state, yet one constrained by persistent political inequality, clientelism, low trust, and reluctance to fund public spending through broad taxation. The mismatch between rising expectations and limited fiscal capacity has now produced a fragile and increasingly untenable fiscal position. Colombia faces a critical choice: renew its fiscal pact on new, more consensual terms or risk recurring crises and democratic erosion as an expensive but ineffective state structure constrains long-run development. |
| Keywords: | Taxation; State capacity; Inequality; Political economy; Clientelism; Social norms; Colombia; Fiscal policy; Institutional change; Public goods |
| JEL: | H11 H20 O17 P48 N16 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:021810 |