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on Central and South America |
| By: | Laguinge, Luis; Gasparini, Leonardo; Neidhöfer, Guido |
| Abstract: | Conditional Cash Transfers (CCTs) have become a key antipoverty policy in Latin America in the last 25 years. The ultimate goal of this kind of programs is to break the intergenerational transmission of poverty through the promotion of human capital accumulation of children in vulnerable households. In this paper, we explore this issue by estimating the long-run effects of the largest CCT in Latin America: the Brazilian Bolsa Familia. Through a combination of the two-stage-two-sample method and a difference-in-differences approach, we find evidence consistent with a positive long-run impact of Bolsa Familia among former beneficiaries. In particular, we find a significant positive effect on education and labor income, and a negative effect on the likelihood of being a current beneficiary of this social transfer. |
| Keywords: | Conditional cash transfers, long term effects, human capital formation, Bolsa Familia, Brazil, Latin America |
| JEL: | D04 I38 J24 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:319892 |
| By: | Gabriel Rodriguez (Departamento de Economía de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú); Mauricio Alvarado (Departamento de Economía de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the evolution of the inflation uncertainty-inflation relationship in seven Latin American countries and the G7 from Q1 1948 to Q4 2023, using the time-varying parameter stochastic volatility in mean (TVP-SVM) model of Chan (2017) and its extension incorporating time-varying mixture innovations (TVP-SVM-TVMI) from Hou (2020). The key findings are as follows: (i) the TVP-SVM model is preferred in 8 out of 14 countries; (ii) inflation uncertainty has been higher in Latin America than in the G7, particularly during the 1980s "lost decade"; (iii) log-inflation uncertainty is more persistent in Latin America; (iv) there is no evidence supporting the hypothesis of Friedman (1977) in any of the countries analyzed; (v) the Cukierman-Meltzer hypothesis (1986) holds, as the uncertainty-inflation relationship is positive and time-varying in all countries; (vi) this relationship is stronger and statistically significant during periods of high inflation uncertainty; and(vii) there is evidence of more structural breaks in this relationship in Latin America than in the G7. Palabras claves: Inflation Uncertainty, Inflation, Latin America, G7, Bayesian Estimation and Comparison, Stochastic Volatility in Mean, Time-Varying Parameters, Structural Breaks. JEL Classification-JE: C11, C15, C58, E31, N16. |
| Keywords: | Inflation Uncertainty, Inflation, Latin America, G7, Bayesian Estimation and Comparison, Stochastic Volatility in Mean, Time-Varying Parameters, Structural Breaks. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00544 |
| By: | Blackman, Allen; Jeuland, Marc; Leguizamo, Emilio |
| Abstract: | The ability of countries in Latin America to achieve net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by mid-century, the target set by the Paris Agreement, will depend critically on citizen support. To gauge this support, we administered a contingent valuation survey to representative samples in seven of the regions leading GHG emitting countries and in the United States, which is used as a comparator. The survey elicits respondents willingness to pay (WTP) for achieving net zero by 2050 and uses a split sample design to test whether WTP is affected by the distribution of decarbonization costs across households. Our estimates of mean WTP in the Latin American study countries are on par both with our estimate for the United States, and with estimates from a recent CV study for China, Sweden, and the United States. However, among the Latin American study countries, mean WTPs for Argentina and Brazil are relatively low. We also find that the distribution of the costs of decarbonization across households does not have a clear effect on WTP and that the drivers of WTP for our Latin American study countries are similar to those the literature has identified in other regions. |
| Keywords: | Contingent Valuation;stated preference;Net Zero;Argentina;Brazil;Chile;Colombia;Ecuador;Mexico;Peru |
| JEL: | Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14188 |
| By: | Egana-delSol, Pablo (Adolfo Ibanez University); Vargas-Faulbaum, Luis (Adolfo Ibanez University) |
| Abstract: | This article offers a comprehensive review of Artificial Intelligence's (AI) effects on global labour markets, with a particular focus on developing economies. Drawing on an extensive body of evidence, it demonstrates that AI's disruptive potential diverges markedly from earlier waves of automation, extending its reach into occupations once deemed insulated—especially those demanding advanced education and complex cognitive abilities. The analysis reveals significant heterogeneity in AI exposure across countries at different development stages and among workers distinguished by skill sets, educational attainment, age, and gender, underscoring its unequal distributional consequences. To harness AI's benefits while safeguarding vulnerable groups, we propose four strategic policy levers: bolstering digital infrastructure, expanding vocational training and lifelong upskilling programmes, formalising labour markets, and integrating AI tools within social protection delivery. Collectively, these measures foster a human centred adoption of AI, bridge the digital divide, and promote inclusive growth, thereby mitigating adverse impacts on employment and wages. |
| Keywords: | artificial intelligence, labour market, inequality, automation, social protection |
| JEL: | J23 J24 J31 O1 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izapps:pp216 |